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Jul 17, 2024
A Numbers Game | July 17, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | July 17, 2024 | Hour 1
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story, they always do. So all those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on BSIN. All right, we are here. It is Wednesday morning. Uh, I am Jared Smith.
0:12
Look, I got the Penn State cup today. I don't know, am I allowed to show the Penn State logo on air?
0:16
I don't want to, uh, disrupt any, uh, you know, Michigan or Ohio State people in the back, but we do have the Penn State. I'll move it to the side, 'cause I do talk with- You're good...
0:24
I talk with my hands a lot, and I think the worst possible thing I could do is knock that cup over and cause chaos here at the D. This is, uh, the D Resort and Casino in downtown Las Vegas.
0:34
It is a very exciting show planned for you. Um, Jared Smith, Kelly Bidlin. Um, I'm here today in for Gil Alexander. I believe it will be the Ben Wilson Show the next two days, correct? It will be.
0:43
Also, nobody has ever in the history of this bar spilled a drink on this table. Yeah, so look, that's not a first that I wanna really- Oh, shoot... that I real- really wanna be associated with.
0:53
And not only is it a drink, it's coffee, which means if I don't get it, you will see the quality of this show decrease- [laughs] Yeah... as we go along, as the caffeine leaves me.
1:05
Um, decent chance that entire cup gets finished before the end of the show. I digress. It is the morning after the Major League Baseball All-Star Game. Congratulations to the American League.
1:14
Back in the win column after a crazy win streak. Lost last year, won last night, five to three, game goes over. Jarren Duran of the Red Sox, um, is your MVP.
1:26
Um, we will have Will Hill on in this hour, who has a Jarren Duran MVP ticket to talk about. Congratulations to him. I, he had a few other tickets too. Wow. Um, but I had a chance to talk to Will Hill yesterday.
1:39
I hopped on Lombardi Line with him and Stormy Bonatony, and we were talking about MVP, we were talking about the baseball future, or the, uh, baseball All-Star game, and I said, "Man, five-three has been a really popular score, you know, in, in baseball this year, and that, that feels like the right score tonight.
1:54
I'm probably not betting the under.
1:56
I think the Nerf is overpriced, but I think it hits, and I think a reserve player wins the MVP," because 10, typically baseball games get deter- you know, get decided at, at the end of the game.
2:07
Um, it's not a Shohei Ohtani three run home run in the, I think, third inning that would've ended up being the difference. If that was the difference, Ohtani wins MVP easily.
2:16
Um, but once we got back to three-three and it was the later innings, it was probably pretty obvious that the person, whoever, you know, drove in the winning run, was gonna be the MVP of the game.
2:24
It turned out to be a home run. I think it was 50 to one on Duran, I saw. Yeah, I've, I've seen between like 45 and 60. Woo! So, uh, ni- nice hit out there for anybody that was on it.
2:32
I mean, we talked about it a little bit yesterday, but it's the, uh, it's just the game is so tough to bet. But I think this is... I mean, it played out last night, so it's easy to sit here and say this. Yeah, right.
2:43
I still don't know how much I'd be recommending even ma- making these bets every year, but, like, I think that's the only k- type of bet you can make for this year in and year out.
2:50
If you wanna take one or two flyers from bench guys that you know are gonna be in later in the game- Yeah... that might have a huge impact on the game [laughs] That's the only way to do it...
2:59
uh, ju- just take one or two of those and call it a day, 'cause I, I totally aside on them. Well, I, I'll look up the text that Will sent me last night. He had Duran and Corey Seager at 50 to one. Okay. Yep.
3:08
There you go. And, and, and that makes sense to me, right? Yep. Like, those are guys that can, you know, go deep, that had really good years. Duran's actually had a quiet really good year with the Red Sox.
3:15
Obviously Corey Seager, um, we all know him from his days with the Rangers last year in the World Series, and I think, uh, maybe not as good of a year for him offensively speaking, but still good enough to be in the All-Star game, and, and those picks made sense.
3:29
Um, yeah, it, it, it's, it's a game that I'm not, I, I, I didn't even watch after the first inning. Actually, no, I take that back.
3:35
I watched up to the Ohtani homer, and that, and at that point I was like, "This game's going over and Ohtani's probably winning MVP," and, and there really wasn't much, um, interest from me after that.
3:47
And, and you said you didn't watch much last night either. There was a lot of flipping around for me last night, 'cause it, it- We're in that time in sport. Get away from sports these next couple days.
3:54
It's gonna be there later this week, guys. Don't worry. I, I don't, I don't know what to... I mean, like, look, I'm, I'm a, I'm a special example. Maybe not the, the perfect example. You're very special.
4:01
Very, very special. [laughs] You're very special. Thank you, Jared. You're very special, Kelly. Like, maybe not the person that, uh, you wanna design schedules a- around.
4:07
[laughs] But wh- when, when I'm battling w- to watch, to, to sneak in some MLB All-Star Game in between commercial breaks of the Summer League, like, y- you might, you might- Oh, you watched, so you watched some Summer League last night?
4:17
Yeah, you might have an issue on your hands- Nice... Major League Baseball. And then, uh- Yeah... and then, and then, and then even the Aces going last night. Like, that was- Yes...
4:25
that, like, that was a game that I wanted to watch a little bit of. I, I fell asleep halfway through it, but yeah. We did have the Aces last night. Um, Storm and Sparks, we had the Liberty and the Sun, Sky and Aces.
4:34
It was a good g- actually, wow, how about that? The Aces got beat by the, uh- Yeah, it was... got beat by the Sky last night. Uh, maybe, uh, uh, you know, improving the Rookie of the Year candidacy, um, for Angel Reese.
4:44
Another double-double. It's insane. Another double-double. Um, we will talk a li- actually, I don't think we're gonna, I'm not sure if we're gonna talk any WNBA on the show. We might get there at some point.
4:53
Um, but coming up, this is a stacked show. I'm actually excited.
4:56
It's a two-hour show, so we have eight segments in, in, you know, four each hour, and we have half of them filled with guests, and it's a great job by my counterpart here, Kelly Bidlin.
5:04
Um, Si Najad's gonna come on at the bottom of this hour, host of the Monumental Sports Network's, uh, gambling show. He does a lot of other good work, um, with that network.
5:12
We're gonna talk, I think, a little, uh, golf, right? We got the Open Championship coming up. Oh, yeah, Open, yeah, Open with Si, yep. Starts, uh, on Thursday.
5:18
And then I mentioned Will Hill, um, coming up also in this hour. We'll, we'll kind of touch them all with Will. We'll get some baseball. Maybe we'll get into some NFL as well.
5:26
And then the next hour, really excited about these two guests in our final hour, or actually three guests. Two in one segment and then one separate. [laughs] So kind of a, uh, a group guest segment coming up.
5:38
Our last segment, um, the two folks that host the Oddball, uh, podcast on the DraftKings network, Charlotte Wilder and Amin Elhassan will hop on. And then really at the bottom of the next hour, uh, Chris Fallica.
5:49
Really excited to talk some college football with the Bear. He will be in studio. So how about that? We have two in studio guests coming up in our final hour, um, and it's gonna be a slam pack show.
6:00
So we mentioned the All-Star Game. Congratulations to the American League. Congratulations to Jarren Duran. Game just-... barely sneaks over the total by the hook.
6:09
But we digress, because to me now baseball is in the rear view mirror for at least a couple of days.
6:14
I am going to act like we are not in the middle of a baseball season, and I'm gonna try to, hoo, catch my breath and catch up on some of the other headlines.
6:23
Because let's be honest, we're I would say, what, two weeks away from training camp really starting to get going? I think we have a, a, a, a Hall of Fame game starting really soon. Mm-hmm.
6:35
I, I think actually training camp starts next week, and then the Hall of Fame game is in two weeks.
6:39
I might be off a little bit on the timeline there, but football season- Yeah, you got rookie, you got rookies starting to report this week. Wow. I mean, football season is here, guys.
6:46
And the big news that we got yesterday came from a veteran, not from a rookie. Um, out west, here in our neck of the woods in the Pacific Time Zone, San Francisco's, uh, we'll call him a disgruntled wide receiver.
6:57
I think it's fair at this point to call Brandon Aiyuk- Oh, yeah... a disgruntled- That's fair, yeah... wide receiver. Request officially requested a trade yesterday out of town. I have a couple thoughts on this story.
7:10
I think the first thought is yes, he deserves to get paid. Yes, I think the Niners would like to pay him. I just think it's one of those situations that is gonna be very difficult to be ironed out.
7:23
The Niners are in a tough spot. They have a lot of mouths to feed. I don't think they can pay Deebo and Brandon Aiyuk. Yeah. And I just think one of them is going to leave town.
7:33
This is what happens in the NFL with the salary cap. This is not an original story. It will not be the last time this happens.
7:40
It's definitely not been the first time that a team has collected a, has drafted really well, collected a lot of good young talent, and has struggled to keep that young talent past the expiration of their rookie deal.
7:54
I'll put things in perspective for you, which is the only thing I can do. I, I, I don't know when Brandon Aiyuk is going to be traded. I don't know who he's going to be traded to.
8:04
That is not something that I have the ability to forecast. I could tell you where he'd be a good fit. I could tell you where I'd like to see him go. But these situations are very tricky, because it is all propaganda.
8:19
To me, when a story gets released like it was yesterday, it is direct from the source of Brandon Aiyuk's agent, and it is calculated. The reason why it was released yesterday is calculated.
8:32
I don't know why, but everything surrounding these types of situations are calculated.
8:38
These players have PR teams, unless you're Lamar Jackson, surrounding them, comforting them, insulating them from all of the outside noise. And whenever
8:49
the trigger needs to be pulled, this was released yesterday, and now we're gonna have this firestorm, frankly, for the next, I think, week or two until the Niners veterans report.
9:00
But the perspective to me that's important, when you pull up Pro Football Focus's premium stats, and I hope you have a subscription. If not, if you're a football fan, if you're a bettor, I certainly recommend it.
9:09
It's very helpful. And I look up the numbers from last year, and I start to look at who had the best season in the NFL in terms of receiver grades. You don't have to go too far down the list to find Brandon Aiyuk's name.
9:21
Yeah. Yep. I mean, it's, it's basically right at the top. It's just behind Tyreek Hill, who is the best receiver in the league, deserves to be paid as such. He's ahead of Amon-Ra St.
9:31
Brown, not by much, but he's ahead of Amon-Ra St. Brown. Didn't have as many yards as Amon-Ra last year, but his receiving grade was better.
9:39
Justin Jefferson, Nico Collins, who just got a $72 million contract, 50 guaranteed. CeeDee Lamb, Jalen Waddle, A.J. Brown.
9:46
These are all receivers that according to the analytics, Pro Football Focus, Brandon Aiyuk was better than last year. Not by much. I'm not saying he's this, you know, generational Jerry Rice.
10:00
But in terms of last year, the spectrum of receivers in the NFL, he's right at the top. He's way ahead of Deebo Samuel- Yeah... who wasn't on the field for a whole lot last year either.
10:08
And ev- and partially because that, he very much became Brock Purdy's guy, right? Like that, so that is... I, I mean, that's part of the...
10:15
It, uh, that's one of the interesting parts of the story to me is that, okay, you're kind of Brock Purdy's guy. You became that last year.
10:22
And if you know, while there might be questions around receivers in the future of them, right, you know [laughs] Brock Purdy is the future at quarterback right now for the San Francisco 49ers.
10:31
So how much do you wanna do to ma- uh, to do, uh, to do to make sure that that guy's happy- Yeah... uh, for years to come? That's the interesting part of this. But man, it is, it's a tough spot.
10:41
Players find themselves [laughs] in this all the time, right? Like, you're, you're up a- you're up against the end to end of your rookie deal. You wanna get paid, not just more, it's a lot more, right?
10:50
And from a team perspective- It'll be, it'll, you would expect he's gonna get more than Collins. Yeah. Yeah. And they- Who got a lot. Yes.
10:56
A- and from a team perspective, like you said, I mean, you got, you got a lot of mouths to feed, and that's not- A lot of mouths to feed...
11:01
I mean, that's not just with thr- you know, get making sure the ball gets around. It's with money getting around, too. So I, y- I don't, it's a tough spot.
11:09
And, and you s- I think, I think when you, when you hear a report like this, Jared, it's because, it's because the people on the inside know that there's actually been teams calling now and asking about him. Mm-hmm.
11:20
And we have seen those reports out there. Um, but you know, with San Francisco, it's just, it's, it's really tough. What, what are you gonna be able to get in return for a guy who's on the last year of his deal?
11:30
I think you're getting not much for him. Maybe you've got a shot to get something for Deebo, and maybe that's the only way to really get- Yeah... Aiyuk signed. Tricky situation.
11:41
Not really something I have context on until we get more news. All right, coming back, we will touch on some baseball futures. It'll be the only baseball we talk today. Stay with us on Numbers Game.
11:49
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. All right. We are not doing that read. It's okay. No read in this segment. Um, this is live TV.
12:07
This is a Numbers Game. I am Jared Smith in for Gil Alexander today. Um, Kelly Bidlin is here with us as well. Very excited to get to, um, our guest at the bottom of this hour.
12:16
Um, we're gonna talk a little golf with, uh, Sia Najad of the Monumental Sports Network. Also coming up this hour, Will Hill, uh, VSiN contributor.
12:23
He's gonna, um, uh, very excited to, to chat with him about, uh, his big win last night on Jarren Duran, and, uh, ask him why, uh [laughs] he decided to pick- [laughs] There you go...
12:33
what was the inspiration there when you, you just... I don't know. He's a, I think he's a Yankees fan. I know he's from the Connecticut area, so maybe he could be a Red Sox fan, I guess, too.
12:42
Um, I'm actually not sure Will's, um, uh, fan affiliation with baseball. Oh, he's a Yankees fan. He's a Yankees fan? Yeah, he's a Yankees fan. Well, I don't talk about this.
12:48
And I was actually talking to my friend about this yesterday, and he asked me if I was, um, excited to watch the All-Star Game. And I said, "I, I guess I'm excited to watch Judge and Soto, uh, in the first inning."
13:01
And, and he's like, "Why? Are you a Yankees fan?" And I'm like, "Yeah." And then I thought about it and I'm like, why do I really care how they perform in the All-Star Game?
13:08
Like, some people actually do sit there and watch their players, you know, of their teams in the All-Star Game, and they think it's gonna impact something later. Right. Yeah.
13:18
Like, oh, well, if this guy wins the MVP, well, that's good news for my... No, it, it's not. And also, final gripe before we get into some baseball numbers: they need to do something about the uniforms.
13:28
Oh, those were so bad last night. Where- That was so bad... can you just wear your team's uniform? Yeah, I saw people talking about that on Twitter last night. Or, or di- didn't even Manfred get asked about it, I guess?
13:37
Well, I understand why you don't want that to be the case in the NBA, because they're playing on the same floor and it's like one guy's wearing a Wizards uniform, the other guy's wearing, like, a Knicks uniform.
13:49
The blue matches, and they're on different teams- Well-... and I get that... and there's passing involved, right? There's pa- exactly. Like, you have to pass to each other, right?
13:55
[laughs] There's movement and contact involved where you're in close proximity to where it can be confusing because certain uniforms look similar. Yeah. Like, it's just the way that it is.
14:04
It's not like the center fielder's gonna wave o- wa- wave off the right fielder and be like, "Wait a second. Whose team is he on?" Yeah. Right.
14:09
[laughs] But in baseball, they're all in their own little area, and they don't go anywhere near each other for the most part, except for when they're on the bases, when there's no real obvious confusion about who's who.
14:22
Um, they sh- Do one of them, didn't they do it once, like, like, just do, like, the regular uniforms, but outline them in- Just let them wear their uniform... outline them in gold or something like that.
14:30
Or put a patch on it or something. Exactly. Put a patch on there. That's all you need. That's all you need. I think the, and it goes back to my original point, the fans of the teams are tuning in to watch their players.
14:41
They want to watch the team's uniforms. They want to see the swag that they're used to watching throughout the course of the season.
14:48
Instead, uh, like, uh, they've got the highlights on now on MLB Network, it looked like a triple A uniform. [laughs] Like, it, or I'll even make it worse. It looked like a double A All-Star uniform.
14:59
It did not look very flattering. It had weird colors. It was, like, maroon and, like, beige and, like, neon. Like, the American League had, like, a neon red, and the National League was, like, blue on blue.
15:10
It was really bad. It was, it was not- Yeah... a good look. And I'm not saying that they can't create a good-looking All-Star uniform. I've seen some really good ones.
15:19
But just let these guys wear their jerseys, because you know 99% of the people tuning in, besides the degenerates who bet on Jarren Duran to win MVP, like, like Will Hill, they're watching for their own players.
15:31
They want to see the pinstripes of the Yankees. They want to see the Cardinal with the two little goofy birds on the front. Like, that's what they came in to see. All right, I digress.
15:40
Let's get into some baseball, though, because this was a really interesting-- You said you wanted to talk about this with Gil for quite some time, a unique market available on DraftKings.
15:49
We know about winning their division. We talked about that a little bit yesterday. We didn't talk about the World Series odds yesterday, but this is kind of baked in. It's the parlay.
15:56
It's, it, it's basically a futures parlay, which actually have become very popular among some books that allow them to take place. It's win the division and parlay win the World Series. Yeah.
16:08
Is there a reason why this market intrigues you? 'Cause you said you wanted to talk about it with Gil over the last few weeks.
16:13
Well, I think, well, well, and I, I brought that up because, as we mentioned yesterday, I think this is a great time to, if you are, if you've got the time and desire to go out and bet some MLB futures markets- I agree...
16:24
one of the tough things about doing that through the course of the season, right, is you don't know every, you can't count every night that they're gonna be up and reposted, right? Not every market is. Yep.
16:33
DraftKings right now, it's like everything you've seen from the beginning of the season throughout the season is kind of back up there and reposted now. So these were, these haven't been up often.
16:43
That's why we haven't really gotten to it.
16:45
Uh, but I think it's an interesting way of, okay, if you've got a couple teams that you're looking at to win the World Series, or they even, the ones I missed, they even have this up for division and league championship as well.
16:58
I like that. Um, so- Where is it? In season specials, playoff se- play, where is it? Is there a column that it's under? Uh, team futures and then future specials. Team futures. Future specials. Future specials, yes.
17:07
So again, that's always interesting when you're... Now,
17:11
I would say on average, if I had to give you an average number, I would say for at least 20 to 30 minutes every day, I am on the, uh, big box apps that are available to us here in town, MGM and Caesars. Mm-hmm.
17:24
And I am sifting through random tabs to see if I missed any markets. Yep. 'Cause they will do this to you every week or month or so. They will throw something up there, um, to try to get your money.
17:38
I, I saw it last night, and I'm, I'm not saying they're doing it maliciously. It is their job to create, they call it product. We call them bets. They call it product.
17:47
The more product they have on their site, the more money that they can make. That's just the way business works, right?
17:53
If you work at Amazon, you want to get as much crap on the Amazon site as possible so people can buy it. Uh, it doesn't mean that they have to buy it, but if it's there, it's available to buy.
18:02
Um, so I would recommend everyone do that if you're, you know, like me and You don't really have a life and you just like to gamble.
18:09
[laughs] Um, go through your apps and, and fi- you might find something that you're like, "Wow, I didn't even know this existed." Oh, totally. And it, it's this fantastic bet.
18:16
So- I, I think the way, with, with some of the offerings that are available these days- It's unbelievable...
18:20
the way I talk about it often is just, like, you might have the idea to make one bet in mind, but you might find a, a different market that actually makes more sense to make that bet, and that might, might apply to these, Jarret, right?
18:32
So if you are, you know, looking at some of these teams to win the World Series, um, and we can just kind of go through the ones at the top. Yeah. Okay, the Dodgers.
18:40
If I want to go and bet them just to win the World Series, I, yes, it's plus 330, plus 340 for them to win the division and the World Series. Why don't you just do that? There's no...
18:47
And, and I think the top two teams on this list are basically locks to win their division. Okay, so I was gonna ask you that.
18:52
So you're just- So you're getting t- You're getting an extra 50 cents on the dol- You're getting 50 cents The Phillies are five to one to win the World Series. You're getting 50 cents- 50 cents... on the Phillies.
18:59
The Phillies are 10 games up in the, right? They're like 10 games up.
19:02
The odds of them losing that division, and if they do lose that division, they would have to play so poorly in the second half that you would not feel comfortable winning, them winning the World Series. Correct.
19:14
Yeah, yeah. Good point. They're eight and a half up- That's a, yeah, that's a good way to say it, too... but they're eight up in the loss column with, like, 60 to play.
19:19
And then Yankees Orioles, like, okay, that, that's a- That one's a toss-up... that's a race, but let- That's a toss-up...
19:24
let's say you feel you're very bullish on one of those teams to win the division, I'd almost kind of like reverse it, right? You're really bullish on one of them to win the division.
19:34
Well, they're probably gonna be live in the AL, then, to, you know, to win the American League, get to the World Series.
19:39
You're getting a much better price, obviously, in this, than what you're gonna get on them to win the division.
19:44
I mean, I, yes, it is obviously way more of a gamble than the Dodgers Phillies, but still, that's a, that's a big price bonus if you're really bullish on one of those two teams.
19:51
So there's two things that stand out that I'm quickly...
19:54
And, and I love when you put this stuff in the show because I can just let my, I would say call it quasi-computer brain, I don't have, like, a real computer brain like Steve Fezzik does. He's like an actuary.
20:06
He actually has a computer brain. My brain is like a baby computer. [laughs] It's like, it's like a Tamagotchi, basically. A Tamagotchi.
20:12
[laughs] It has, it has a little bit of processing, but it's not quite at the level that, like a, like, you know, a real, uh, computer has.
20:19
Um, the Orioles obviously stand out because I, I do think they're gonna win the division. They're eight to one to win the World Series.
20:26
They're 13 to one in this market, and they're not f- you know, you're not getting $5 of extra juice on them to win the division.
20:32
Like, I, I think they are going to win this division, and I think that obviously makes it very live to win the World Series. Right. Here's who I wouldn't bet on. Yes. The Astros. Yeah, that, that's good. The Astros.
20:42
Okay. 'Cause they're 15 to one to win the World Series. They're 16 to one in this market. Yeah, you're just getting, yeah. And you're basically... And, and also, that race in the A- N- ALS is pretty tight right now.
20:51
Like, there is no gap. Yeah, I mean, you got three teams possibly involved, yeah. There's not a lot of gap there.
20:56
So I think a lot of times with these markets, the index markets, when I say index markets, I mean multiple results. Over-under, two result markets, a little bit more cut and dry.
21:07
When you're dealing with these index markets, you have to make basically 10, 15 different handicaps. Mm.
21:12
You have to not only handicap the team that you're betting on, but the teams around them in the odds, and to say, "Is this too high, too low?" You know, to me, that's kind of...
21:20
I u- I kind of group these into tiers, where I would stop at the Orioles. Br- yeah. Like, the Orioles are my top tier and above. I would be interested in the Orioles.
21:29
I don't wa- I don't think the Yankees win the division, so I don't like them. The other two teams I'm very interested in because they're basically shoo-ins right now. They're both odds on to win their division. Um,
21:39
down past the Orioles, I ain't betting the Astros. I ain't betting the Brewers.
21:44
I don't even think the Brewers are gonna win the division, even though they're odds on, even, even though they're four games up right now, and no chance to win the World Series.
21:51
So you have to make the distinction first if you think this team can win the World Series. To me, that's the... You have to go backwards here. Yeah, yep. You c- like, the division odds is the bonus.
22:04
Sure, sure, 'cause, uh, yes, yes. That's the, that's the cherry on top. I want the division to be a slam dunk. I want a Phillies. I want a Dodgers.
22:12
And if I think that team can win the World Series, which to me is the main part of this handicap, I'm willing to work backwards and get a few extra pennies on the dollar to get...
22:21
Because i- it's not a market that I'm really interested in betting, but if I was, Dodgers, Phillies, Orioles. I think those are the... I was just kind of scanning through.
22:29
You're not getting enough bang for your buck on some of those other teams. I, that's where I would stop the list, is after the Orioles. If you're, one of those teams in the AL East you're high on, sure, go ahead.
22:37
The top two make sense, though. They make sense. I don't know if those other teams are gonna win their division, and so that's where the second part of the handicap, I struggle.
22:44
All right, we'll talk a little golf on the other side. Siya Najad, Monumental Sports Network, a numbers game. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:55
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23:39
A numbers game live in downtown Las Vegas, the morning after the Major League Baseball All-Star game.
23:43
We've got just a couple of WNBA games before they go on Olympic break, but the main event, uh, this week is going to be the Open Championship across the pond at Royal Troon.
23:54
Very excited, uh, to set my alarm at, I think, around 2:00 or 3:00 in the morning, um, when that thing, uh, tees off on Thursday.
24:01
And now to help us break it all down, he is a host and analyst at the Monumental Sports Network. Siya Najad joining us now on the Progressive Guest Line. Very excited to chat with you, Siya.
24:10
First of all, um, y- a little bit earlier, or excuse me, later of a wake-up call for you there on the East Coast. I'm sure you're excited about that.
24:17
But this is an event where you've got to really tweak that body clock as we go across the pond. Um, I guess break down, um, uh, your history, uh, with this, uh, event.
24:27
Is it one of your favorite majors on the card, uh, on the golf schedule, or is this one of those, "Oh man, I better gear up 'cause this is a weird one"? That's an, it's an interesting question.
24:37
I'll, I'll say that, this about the Open Championship at Royal Troon.
24:40
I, I think it lends itself to a little bit less variance than some of the open championships at, at other courses where, you know, y- y- you, you get the wrong bounce, and you can get the wrong bounce here, too.
24:51
But there's several instances in other open championships where you can get really unlucky. That goes for some other majors as well, part- particularly, though, the Open Championship. And also the wind factors in.
25:01
We got link style, we got coastal courses.
25:03
So it's an interesting question, because I don't like these tournaments quite as much, because any time there's more variance or there's more variables for me to potentially build in that are largely unknown, like you can't know a bad bounce or, or a wind wave, or you can to some degree, but, you know, the wind can pick up and, and die down in unpredictable places.
25:20
So I, I, I like this tournament, but I'll say this: I like this day. Because- Hmm... last week, just like this week, we've got, we've got the tournament that starts at 1:30 in the morning.
25:32
It's, it's a little earlier than what we had at the Scottish Open. And then it goes through, you know, basically the, the early afternoon hours.
25:38
But the Barracuda Championship, which I also bet on, and, and I, I'm not necessarily coming with picks for that, although I do have them, by the way. Oh.
25:45
That goes till, like, 10:00 at night, because that's on the West Coast out in California. So if you love golf, like don't, don't, like, don't look down on those alt tournaments.
25:53
There are some real names in those tournaments, including Michael Thor Bjornson, Keith Mitchell. Like, there's plenty of names there.
25:59
If you wanna watch all, golf all morning, all day, and all night, you can do it tomorrow, the next day, the day after that, and on Sunday as well.
26:06
I love it, because, uh, it's not like there's a whole lot else going on in the sports world. Right. I think this is a really good week, um, if you are someone who maybe is new to the golf betting world.
26:15
Uh, yeah, set your alarm early, but a- again, these are some very intriguing, um, tournaments this week. And I, I think when I look at your card here, it, it's pretty balanced. You've got a couple guys that I know.
26:26
You've got a couple guys at the bottom of the board. You've got some match-ups. You've got some finishing positions. So let's start at the top. Collin Morikawa.
26:32
Um, uh, right at the top of your outright leaderboard here, um, a- anything intriguing about Morikawa this week that, uh, uh, uh, pushed you to make a wager on him? Yeah. It's, it's the state of his game right now.
26:42
And I'll tell you, my outright card, you're, you're gonna see it right here. You see it on the screen. You're gonna hear it in a second.
26:47
And it's a little unorthodox, 'cause I've peppered the long shot board, because I think there's value there, a little bit more than, than I normally do. Like, last week I had three outrights total, including long shots.
26:57
Uh, this week I have seven, because like five to five of them, actually, you could say all six out of seven are long shots. The one that's not a long shot is, is your first question here. It's, it's Collin Morikawa.
27:06
Why do I like him at +1600? I honestly think he should be like +1200, +1400. I still like that number at +1400, 'cause some books have, uh, adjusted it down.
27:16
The state of his game right now, ever since the PGA Championship in early May, has been so good. He's gained across every single metric almost every single time, and you just can't say that about everybody else.
27:27
You can say it about Rory in large part. You can say it about Scottie Scheffler. But then it's Collin Morikawa. And then you look at their odds compared to Collin Morikawa's, and I just see way more value.
27:36
Add in the context that, yeah, he's missed the last two cuts at Open Championships, but he won the year before that.
27:41
He's probably coming in hotter than any of those three years in terms of the state of his game right now and the strokes gained metrics, and he's a good course fit.
27:48
'Cause I mentioned it, like when, when I'm talking about players I like, I- I'm looking for, like, a balanced approach. I'm looking for an accurate approach, g- good with long irons, and good with the short game.
27:57
And Collin checks all those boxes. So at +1600, uh, there's no looking back. I knew I was going to bet him kind of regardless of the number, but I also knew he wasn't gonna be like 10 to one.
28:06
Uh, so the, I can talk about the other six very quickly, but Morikawa at +1600 is my very favorite player this week. Yeah, see, I love that. I'm all over Morikawa with you th- uh, this week as well.
28:15
I think if we're, if you're, if you're putting a premiums, uh, premium in on accuracy off the tee, he's one of those top guys, uh, in the field this week, and he makes a lot of sense.
28:23
A- and, I mean, w- hasn't finished worse than T16 since before the Masters. That's what we're talking about with Morikawa. Yeah. He's due here at a- uh, any point.
28:31
Uh, Masters finished T3, PGA T4, US Open T14, so he's played the majors well, uh, here as well.
28:37
There's one name on your card that stuck out to me, uh, that I'm interested to see how some people ha- uh, like yourself handle this week. It is Patrick Cantlay. You're getting at a long price- Yeah...
28:45
with a little bit of an unknown- Yeah... coming into this tournament. Uh, what led you to ma- uh, making that bet? So here's my take on superstars. This is a general take that I always have.
28:56
I am willing to, and, uh, maybe, maybe he's not a superstar in people's mind. Let, let's just call them stars, because people are gonna take umbrage with the superstar label, and I totally get that.
29:03
But when it comes to stars, when it comes to the talent level that Patrick Cantlay has, I'm willing to take them regardless of what their form has been previously. Now, in Cantlay's case, the form was really bad, right?
29:14
But if you look at the last two tournaments, oh my gosh, this looks like the old Patrick Cantlay. And you might say to yourself, "Well, that's just a two-tournament sample size."
29:21
But that goes back to the, just the general, uh, axiom that I have about these star players a- and that's that I don't necessarily need a big sample.
29:29
I might need a big sample size with, you know, Hank Lebioda or, or, or some, some guy that's, like, not really generally on P- on the PGA Tour, but when it comes to Patrick Cantlay, I don't need much of a sample size.
29:39
I've seen him ramp it up over the last eight rounds over the last two tournaments, and look like the old Patrick Cantlay. And if he is the old Patrick Cantlay, well, his number shouldn't be 45 to one, should it?
29:48
It should be 20 to one tops, maybe 16 or 18 to one. So I feel like I'm getting tremendous value at anything north of 40, and you can find him at +4500.
29:57
It's also part of the reason I'm playing him in DFS, because not a lot of people are gonna wanna click that button, and I just think he can give you, you can play a lot of chalky guys, and he can give you the, the, the ownership leverage you need, because not a lot of people wanna play Patrick Cantlay.
30:09
I'll just mention Shane Lowry's another guy. I just think he's a really good course fit.
30:13
We know he, I mean, he's good on link-style courses a- and he's good on this side of the pond, obviously, but we know he can also really get hot with the putter. And as far as the Collin Morikawa type Build.
30:24
The, the Collin Morikawa type player. I'm just gonna mention my long shots in that same vein, and three out of four of them remind me a lot of Collin Morikawa.
30:32
Corey Conners at 70 to 1, Aaron Rai at 80 to 1, and Akshay Bhatia at 110 to 1. All of these guys can hit fairways, all these guys can get hot with the putter to varying degrees.
30:41
Aaron Rai has certainly added a putter to his bag over the last few tournaments. Corey Conners is Collin Morikawa light, and I do think he's live to win this tournament potentially.
30:49
Akshay, good in the wind, has been very good lately, has kind of fluttered away on Sundays, but is 110 to 1.
30:55
The only other guy that doesn't necessarily fit that mold, and this is the seventh guy, and, and again, a lot of these are 70 to 1 or longer, so I'm just sprinkling on these guys just so everybody knows.
31:04
I'm chasing Adam Scott and what he did last week. I don't necessarily think he's the best cour- course fit, but the form last week kind of reminded me of where he was at earlier this year.
31:13
Uh, I don't wanna say he's a big game hunter, but he certainly looked like that last week at the Scottish Open. So at 70 to 1, I'm willing to speculate.
31:21
Si Najad, host and analyst of the Monumental Sports Network joins us now, um, talking a little Open Championship, which starts Thursday at Royal Troon. Uh, I no- I noticed Bryan Harman also on your card.
31:31
Of course, the defending champion. Put him in a match up here with Max Homa. Were you surprised at the odds?
31:37
'Cause to me, when I just look at the, uh, you know, if I just close my eyes and think about those two players, I would rank Homa in front, um, of Harman, but I guess the course layout here and maybe, uh, Harman's experience across the pond, uh, pushed you across the finish line with this bet.
31:50
Yeah, both those things are true. Th- those are both things that pushed me across, uh, across, uh, taking, uh, Harman here.
31:57
But the thing is, Homa, the state of Homa's game is just bad, and I, I don't think it corrects itself out here.
32:01
Bryan Harman s- Bryan Harman obviously won the Open Championship at a different course last year, but the long and short of it is he, he does fit that sort of Collin Morikawa mold.
32:09
He's a grinder, he'll keep it in the fairway. The approach play and the putting can get hot. Homa's been bad o- with the driver, and he's just been kind of bad in general.
32:17
I think this line is telling you something, 'cause you're right, Max Homa has the name recognition. Bryan Harman kind of does, uh, but not as much as Max Homa, and yet Bryan Harman is still a minus 125 favorite.
32:27
That should tell you all you need to know about how- Yeah... the market is treating these two. 100% agree.
32:32
Usually when your eyes tell you something that your brain is like, "Eh, I don't know if I agree with that," sometimes that's the market's way of trying to push you in the right direction.
32:43
Well, we appreciate your time, Si. Good luck, uh, with the early wake-up calls this week, um, and the Open Championship card, my friend. Love it. Thanks for having me on, fellas. Good stuff. And I, I'm gonna probably
32:54
do a deep dive tonight on your guys' podcast. I'm gonna go back, I'm gonna watch this segment to, uh, uh, soak up some of Si's wisdom, because there ain't a whole lot going on tomorrow in sports. Yeah.
33:05
[laughs] I might as well put a bet out there for a first-round lead or something. I mean, literally, what is happening tomorrow in sports? I, I could take the day off gambling. Y- y- you could do that. You could do that.
33:17
[laughs] I could do that. [laughs] But that's probably not gonna happen. [laughs] So let's not bet on that. Full Long Shots, uh, up now, uh, wherever you get your podcasts.
33:25
We're also up on YouTube if you wanna watch the show yesterday with Wes Reynolds, myself, and Dave Ross filling in for Maverick. How about that? Will Hill filling in with us next. A little baseball futures talk.
33:35
Stay with us on A Numbers Game.
33:36
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33:54
All right, we are back on A Numbers Game, and check out our website, vsin.com. Very excited to share with you. I'm pulling up the site right now.
34:00
I wanna see if there's anything interesting, um, taking place today, because I'll be honest, if we have something juicy up on the site today with not a whole lot going on in sports, I'll be impressed.
34:09
You got Tyler Shoemaker, of course. Your VSiN Pro subscription gets you his best bets, odds, and predictions for July 17th. Lou Finaccaro checking in too, a little MMA on the card.
34:19
Um, and that is the centerpiece story right now on vsin.com. Um, I don't know the names of the fighters, Lemos, Jandiroba, but hey, it's an MMA match, and if Lou Finaccaro's betting on it, I want a piece.
34:30
Head to vsin.com, check it out. All right, we are back here on A Numbers Game. Jared Smith in for Gil Alexander today. Ben Wilson will be with you tomorrow and Friday. Kelly Bidlin's been here all week.
34:39
He's stuck here no matter what, no matter who's hosting. He is, uh, unfortunately in for the long haul. Hey. Right, Kelly? You feel good about that? [laughs] That's right. In for the long haul, baby. I love it.
34:47
Hey, man, I love doing shows with you, Jared. I, honestly, we were talking about this the last time- The best time... we were connected. We don't get to do these often.
34:55
It's whenever Gil kind of takes his hiatus and they kind of slide me in, but we always get productive reviews. I always get positive reviews when I do the show, 'cause it's a different audience, right?
35:06
And we got a lot of great tweets yesterday. If you wanna tweet us, I'll get your tweet on the show. Just, you know, tweet us something, you know, appropriate, and we'll talk about it on the show.
35:14
We had some good chatter yesterday- Yeah... about Madden and college football. Like, we always have interesting off-topic discussions, because we're both from similar parts of the country, similar age groups.
35:24
It's a good- it's, it's, it's an ambiance. It's a vibe. Speaking of all of those things, let's bring in our next guest. He's a VSiN contributor. His name is Will Hill.
35:30
You can follow him on social media at notthewillhill. And Will, wallet's probably feeling a little heavier today, because we were chatting last night. I had a chance to talk to you and Stormy on Lombardi Line yesterday.
35:41
We were going back and forth about the All-Star Game. I feel like I didn't bet it, but I should have, 'cause I said, "Man, 5-3 feels like the right score.
35:48
That's why 7, 7.5 is kind of a tight number for the, uh, total there."
35:52
And then, oh, by the way, if you're gonna bet on the MVP, you should probably pick a reserve, because that's usually when the games get decided in Major League Baseball.
36:00
And both of those things come to fruition, but you were smart enough, my friend. You picked the right reserve last night. Yeah, I mean, I, l- I, I talked about it, I think, on my pod the other day.
36:08
Just threw out a few guys. Uh, you know, Seager was the one I, I gave out on Lombardi Line. Took him, took a, a shot on Bryan Reynolds. Duran, uh, D- Duran or Duran? I always get confused with Duran and Duran.
36:19
Duran Duran. [laughs] Yeah, D- Duran Duran was in there. So, uh, did, did, uh, did, did cash a little on that, but good call by you. Five to three.
36:26
I don't know if you have the, uh- The winning Powerball numbers for today or tomorrow [laughs] I'll take whatever.
36:30
But I was thinking the whole time, 'cause it was right on 5-3, and it was a weird game where the scoring- Yeah... nobody scored until the third, and nobody scored after the fifth.
36:38
So if you knew just that, you would say, "Man, the, the under's gonna be a hell of a bet." And I guess there were some eight and a halfs when it opened. Mm.
36:44
I know there was eight Sunday when I bet out, so I was just happy with a push. But, uh, I mean, obviously a close seven, so we, we talk about it all the time, being price sensitive. Yeah.
36:51
The number does matter, [laughs] where you can just say, "Hey, under, under, under. It's all about pitching." Yeah, but it, it's about price, too. It's almost like the Army-Navy game or the Hall of Fame Game in football.
36:59
Yeah, it always goes under, but it, it comes to a certain point where you're paying for it and you're paying the tax. So good call by you. I hope... I, I don't know if...
37:06
I'm sure these books offered it, a correct score five to three. I don't know if you ended up betting that, but I- I should, I didn't bet anything last night... I know. Of course. Oh, wow.
37:14
I, I, because I, I, you know, I get in this mindset, and Will, maybe you can, you can help me here. This just feels like a therapy session.
37:20
I get in this mindset where I set my mind on something and I'm like, "I am not gonna bet the All-Star Game. I've been grinding so hard, Nerfy this, that, baseball. I'm gonna take a couple of days off.
37:31
I'm gonna, whew, just breathe." Like, I bet the Derby last night. I didn't love... or two nights ago. I didn't love this Derby.
37:36
It wasn't a very exciting Derby, but it's an event that I bet every year, and I stuck to the tradition. The All-Star Game, I go back and forth about. If I really feel passionately about something, obviously I'll bet it.
37:46
I didn't feel overly passionate about it last night. But it feels like that's when you get the handicap right, when you're just kind of like- Of course...
37:53
"Oh, yeah," like, I think, like, when you don't, like, overanalyze.
37:56
'Cause when I know I'm betting something and I'm giving out bets on TV and on social media, I go above and beyond to make sure my T's are crossed and my I's are dotted, but it's sometimes analysis paralysis, right?
38:07
When we overanalyze, that's when we tend to kind of tie ourself up in a pretzel.
38:11
When you're just kind of going through and giving your initial gut, like when we did the show yesterday and I hopped on with you guys, like, I didn't do a ton of research for the All-Star Game, 'cause I knew I wasn't betting it.
38:19
I just kind of did, like, my base amount, and it turned [laughs] out to be, like, spot on. Why didn't I bet it? I am a fool, Will. I'm a fool.
38:28
[laughs] Have you thought about what you possibly could have gotten on the correct score of five to three? Oh, I don't even want to know. [laughs] It probably would've been a nice one.
38:35
I don't know if you would've had to pick the right team. You probably would have. I might have. Most books offer it, but you have to pick right. I could have gone both sides. But you could have, you could have both.
38:41
Yeah. You could have gone both ways. I could have gone both sides. That's like rubbing salt in the wound. That's okay. That's how it works for everybody, though. That happens. Everybody's, like, 70% on their leans.
38:48
You know that. Come on. Oh, yeah. Of course. I would say it's more like 90%. [laughs] All right, um, let's get into some leans, or I would say some more solid leans as we get to the second half of the season.
38:56
'Cause, uh, you messaged me before you hopped on here, and, and one thing you messaged me really stood out. And this is where I'm at right now.
39:03
For the next 48 hours, we get the next two days to kind of breathe before we get back to baseball on Friday. I am excited to go through a lot of statistics, mostly on the team level.
39:12
You're talking about it a little bit more on the player level, guys that had really good first halves or vice versa, that we think the old regression monster, which is, I think of all the major sports, the baseball regression monster is the nastiest, just because of the volume that's involved in the baseball season.
39:28
Are there pitchers on either side of the aisle, great first half, bad first half, that you think could regress positively or negatively in the second half? Yeah, I'll give one each.
39:38
Uh, a- and Tyler Anderson is going to regress at some point, or the, or I'm going to go broke. One of those two things is gonna happen. [laughs] And, and we go through this thing where, hey, this guy's gonna regress.
39:46
But yeah, it does- doesn't mean it's gonna happen this start or the next start or the start after, but I mean, just look at some of the metrics. He's getting hit really hard. He's stranding, like, 84% of his runners.
39:55
All of it is extremely unsustainable. I know he's had a good year on the surface. He made the All-Star team. He was the Angels representative.
40:01
But you're not gonna strand 84% of your runners throughout the year, unless, unless you do. Unless you do [laughs] 'cause we talked about this with Blake Snell last year. So keep that in mind.
40:07
It's not automatic that he regresses, but the statistics, the odds would suggest he's going to regress at some point.
40:13
And then on the flip side to the, to the positive, Pablo Lopez was, uh, was in the mix last year for Cy Young. He was one of the short shots for Cy Young this year, I think. He was in fifth or sixth lowest odds.
40:23
He's gotten hammered. He's got over a five ERA. Wow. But the expected stuff is better. He, he's striking out a lot of guys.
40:29
Uh, you know, you look at the Sierra, the FIP, expected ERA, all, all the, uh, all the little nerd stats, you would expect him to pitch, uh, I would at least expect him to pitch much better, uh, in, in the second half, 'cause he is getting swings and misses.
40:40
He's just been a little bit unlucky with the balls in play. So those are just a couple of guys, uh, look- looking to back and looking to fade.
40:45
Anderson to the negative, looking to, to fade him and I'll be looking to, to back Lopez or expect at least some improvement, whether it's, you know, backing him on, um, you know, earned runs, strikeouts, things like that.
40:55
There's so many different ways to back these guys, as you know, but those are, uh, those are one of each. I, I like the way you, you frame that, because I think the last part of it's the most intriguing part.
41:03
There's so many ways to bet these guys. Oh, yeah. And that's become... It goes, it kind of goes, ties into our analysis by paralysis discussion.
41:12
I think the hardest thing these days, and that's, I, I make it really easy for myself, I just bet the Nerfy every day, right? I find the ones I like, I bet them every day.
41:19
But when you really kind of go into the markets that are available, um, not only props, but also sides and totals, there are so many unique ways to fade a guy. Say you like a starting pitcher.
41:30
You could bet on that team's first five money line. You could bet on the props, over, under, earned runs, strikeouts, hits allowed, whatever. Or you can go into the futures market and really think long term.
41:39
Do you have a strategy based off of what time of year it is, what prop you look at? Pre-season, I really like to look at futures. Then once we get in the middle of the season, I steer away from that. Or vice versa.
41:51
I, I don't really like betting a lot of pre-flop baseball futures because the season's so stinking long, I'm willing to wait a couple of weeks at least, a month or two, sometimes even this mid- middle point, or I guess maybe pa- just past the middle point of the season until I dive into the baseball futures market.
42:06
I like that you can go updated win totals. I like that you can bet on the, basically the entire list of, of, of futures markets while the games are even happening.
42:14
Like, I got a piece of Paul Skene's the other day to win the Cy Young while he was throwing the no-hitter and they just were late to move it.
42:20
Is there a strategy you have at the All-Star Break to approach some of these kind of adjusted win totals or adjusted futures markets as we move forward to the second half?
42:30
Yeah, there's not like one s- uh, one size that fits all rule. I would just say I'm, my strength is also my weakness. I'm always shopping, I'm always looking at books, always thinking of, "Hey, is there an edge?
42:39
Is there value somewhere?" And, uh, if you look at DraftKings, they have updated season win totals. They've got four or five that are off market. Hmm. They've got the Yankees over under wins 95 and a half.
42:47
If you shop around, they're a, it's mostly 97 and a half. Um, so look, that's just, uh- Yeah...
42:53
I, I think with these markets updated season win totals, especially in middle of July, it, it's actually good to be kind of square where the good teams are gonna get better, the bad teams are gonna get worse 'cause of the trade deadline.
43:02
Yankees are gonna add guys. They only have Soto for one more year guaranteed, or a half a year guaranteed. They haven't been to the World Series in 15 years. It, it, it's a little bit now or never.
43:10
Judge is getting older, Cole, Cole's getting older, so they're gonna be aggressive. So again, that's just an off number. Red Sox are 85 and a half at DraftKings.
43:17
If you shop around, there's a bunch of 86es and a half, 86 and a halves. They just have to play 500 ball to go over that 85 and a half. That's a good one.
43:24
Uh, Tampa, you get an extra win to the under, where at DraftKings they're under 80 and a half, but most books are 79 and a half. Uh, so those are just a few of them.
43:32
I did play the Rockies under two because again, it's just- [laughs]... if these, these updated season win totals, it's more of the same.
43:37
The, the bad teams are gonna get worse, they're gonna trade guys, they're gonna trade Ryan McMahon to the other guys and, uh, and the good teams are gonna get better.
43:42
That is the best approach to the baseball futures market that I've heard. You're not handicapping the team.
43:49
First, handicap what they're gonna do with the deadline, and that should lead you to the answer you're looking for because some of them are obvious. Now, they're, it's not at, right?
43:58
Right, we got about 30 seconds left, Will. The f- the trade deadline's been tougher to handicap these days because of the wildcard situation, right? Yeah, not as many sellers. I mean, who knows?
44:07
Maybe you get Crochet sold. Other than that, it's little bit pieces here and there, but it does, you know, these, these teams are gonna improve even if it's marginally. We're never selling on you, Will Hill.
44:14
We appreciate the time, pal. All right, see you guys. Thanks for having me. All right, we'll hop back on the other side.
44:20
I think Kelly Bidman wants to share his golf picks because, hey, we're gonna be waking up early, and if I'm waking up at 2:00 in the morning, I want some winners. Kelly, deliver on the other side of Numbers Game.
44:29
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Recent episodes
A Numbers Game | September 17, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 17, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 16, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
