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Jul 17, 2024
A Numbers Game | July 17, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | July 17, 2024 | Hour 2
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story. They always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Last hour, best hour here on a Numbers Game powered by VSiN.
0:14
Excited to have you here in downtown Las Vegas. Jared Smith, Kelly Biblet with us here for the next hour. Very good hour booked by, um, my counterpart.
0:23
Um, in about 30 minutes, Chris Fallica, you know him from Fox Sports, The Bear, is gonna hop on with us, talk all things college football. Amin Elhassan, Charlotte Wilder of the Odd Ba- what is it, Odds Ball? Oddball.
0:34
Oddball Podcast. I haven't caught it yet, but I'm going to listen to it after I have a chance to chat with them, 'cause I always like to follow up with people after I interview them for the first time.
0:44
And, um, I will make my debut listening to the Oddball Podcast to hear some NBA chatter from our friends over at the DraftKings network, but they will be on with us live on set.
0:53
We have two, that's very rare, uh, back-to-back on-set guests in this hour. Again, Kelly is flexing his producer muscle. I'm about halfway through the coffee. I told you I'll finish it before the end of the show.
1:05
We're halfway through the show. That's usually how it works here. Um, but let's take a quick break, go across the pond, and talk a little golf.
1:12
And, and Kelly, you have been hard at work, along with the rest of the Long Shots team, getting yourself ready for the fi- this is the final major of the year, right? We've already had- Yep... three.
1:20
Final major of the year. Um- PGA's early now. Yep. Yeah, they kind of swapped it around on us. Yeah, yeah. PGA used to be in August. We used to have, you know, April, June. I think May was the off month.
1:30
Now they moved the PGA up, so now it's all kind of condensed- Mm-hmm... in that very short period of time. So this is the final major of the year. Um, golf season, I guess, goes by quicker and quicker every year.
1:40
I don't even remember the Masters at this point, and we're already onto the Open. Oh, you got, uh, we, we've just done a little bit of the schedule change now. Yeah.
1:47
So we'll have, we'll have the Open here this week, and then they're gonna come back and we'll get into the FedExCup playoffs. FedEx Play. How do you feel about the FedEx Play? Are you a fan of it? Meh, it's okay.
1:56
It's okay. It's okay. I, I, hey, look, I think it's always- The format's unique... it's always great when we can get any tournament with kind of- Sure...
2:02
all the best golfers to make sure they're there, so that part of it's good. Fair. Uh, y- they've tinkered with the format over the years. They have. I don't know if, that they've perfected it [laughs] ever.
2:11
Uh, but, uh, hey, you know what? It, it's a fun way to at least end the season if you're still gonna play tournaments after majors, right? So we talked to Siena Ja a little earlier in the show.
2:21
It seems like you guys are in cahoots on Morikawa. Yeah. Were there any other crossovers on your card, or do you want to take this in a different direction? Um, yeah, no, that's a good call.
2:29
Let, let's start there, 'cause there were a couple. Uh, Aaron Rai- Yeah... I do like this week as well. I've been betting him heavily.
2:34
He's had a heck of a year, really been able to find the putter, uh, here this season, and that has, uh, really turned his game around.
2:41
He's, he's another guy, um, I believe he said this about Corey Conner [laughs] so I'll say it about Aaron Rai, where he's a little Colin Morikawa lite.
2:49
He's v- I- you're talking about the two most accurate guys off the tee this week, and I think that's gonna matter big time, uh, in this tournament, Jared.
2:55
We've got, we're playing with really tight fairways, really small greens. So you need guys, uh, that are gonna be really accurate off the tee. Distance control is going to be, uh, fascinating this week as well.
3:06
Off the tee game is really, really important.
3:07
You don't really need bombers, uh, necessarily this week, but there's gonna be a lot of tests off the tee of, "Okay, do I go short of this b- bunker that's in the middle of the dang fairway," or a railroad track in, uh, in one instance.
3:21
[laughs] Or do I, would need to try to get it over that, set, set up a little bit shorter shot, uh, on my approach. A lot of those guys are gonna be challenged with that.
3:29
That's what practice rounds, they're all trying to figure that out this week. Uh, but accuracy's gonna be key, because if you miss, if you're off, uh, out of the fairways, we often see with Opens one of two things.
3:39
Either you got massive fairways to b- to play with and it's not usually an issue, or you're getting into, you know, waist-high grass, and that's basically what's g- uh, what's going to happen with some of these guys, uh, if they don't m- find the fairway.
3:51
So accuracy, if you're handicapping at home and breaking down all these guys, uh, yourself, accuracy off the tee really important this week. Approach is important every single week.
4:00
When you get these really small greens, though, Jared, and if we have any weather if, I mean, it's gonna be windy, um, and I'll update that in a second, um, around the green play becomes even more important.
4:11
And a lot of people are asking me kind of throughout this week with as, as bad weather looks like it's going to hit throughout the weekend, you know, how do you adjust things?
4:18
All I'm kind of doing is just increasing how, uh, how much I'm weighing around the green game. Because with small greens already, they're already tough to hit. If wind starts blowing, they're gonna become even- Yeah...
4:27
tougher to hit. So you need those guys that are creative and kind of wizards around the green. Um, I haven't played Hideki Matsuyama yet, but he might be an add for me because of that.
4:35
That sounds like a name that I would be interested in this week. Yeah. Again, I don't have the data that you do.
4:41
I have some context of what I watch and what I know, and sometimes when you say certain names, I'm like, "Yeah, that guy's probably gonna do well in this tournament."
4:48
He, he's just struggled a little bit with his accuracy- Yeah... off the tee this year. Yeah, that's- I don't have that kind of context, but, like, his game probably suits it. Yes.
4:55
I- I- I- it should, and he's been a guy that I've, uh, I've burned some money on this year, for sure. [laughs] So [laughs] I might go back to him one more time. But yeah, I'll finish up.
5:02
So Aaron Rai, I, I love him this week. I mean, he's, he's on a heater right now. T4 at the Scottish Open, T7 at the John Deere before that, T2 at the Rocket Mortgage, T19 US Open, T14 Canadian Open.
5:13
He's playing some of the best golf of his career right now. Uh, Open history, missed the cut, uh, in 2022, T19 in 2021, so has played well. He's a, he is an Englishman.
5:22
Um, so he's kind of got everything that I'm looking for here. Win equity's not as high on him, especially with a, in a field like this. So I did play him just in a top 20.
5:31
Uh, and then in a matchup over Matt Fitzpatrick, uh, another Englishman who's just not quite playing, uh, quite as well right now. So did match with Sia there. And then the other one he brought up was Akshay Bhatia.
5:43
I'm on for a long shot as well. It's kind of g- this is kind of a, a more of a field play, where this guy, he's young, 22, I believe, right now, Jared.
5:51
He's going to m- uh, he, he's going to be a big deal on the PGA Tour for a year, for years to come, and he's, his game Should fit this course well. It's just, is the experience gonna, you know, ba- be an issue?
6:04
Yeah, probably. Um, I think he's a fun flyer, though. If you wanna look for an outright that's a, a real, a true long shot, you're gonna get triple digits on that. I got 125 to 1.
6:13
You're gonna find him in that 100 to 1 range. Um, and you know, if he, I'm probably gonna do it today, back it up with a small top five or top 10.
6:20
You don't wanna get a, a guy that close and then miss out [laughs] completely on making any money. Uh, so those were the ones I believed we matched on. I will say, he's on Patrick Cantlay this week.
6:30
I am fading him in one matchup. I love Tony Finau this week. Okay. I really, really love Finau, and he just happened, but Cantlay happened to be on the other side. How'd he do at the US Open?
6:39
Uh, at the US Open, Tony Finau finished T3 at the US Open. 'Cause I think I was on Finau too in the O- I, I was on Finau in the US Open, and I remember I was very excited about that bet- Yep...
6:48
for pretty much most of the week. Yeah, he was up there. So this is another guy where he kind of checks all the boxes. You, you...
6:53
When you think of Open Championships and you think of link style golf, uh, you don't necessarily think of Tony Finau being the perfect fit, but where [laughs] his Open history. Okay, missed the cut last year.
7:04
T28 in 2022, T15 in 2021, third the year before that, T9 the year before that, T27 the year before that, T18 before tha- the year before that.
7:14
So he has a history, and we used to call him top 20 To- Tony all the time, or top 10 Tony all the time [laughs], 'cause he could never win some of these tournaments.
7:21
But he's been in that range for so much of his Open career. Yeah. So he's got that. And then as you bring up, just his recent form is great. Yeah. T5 at the Travelers. Hasn't teed up since the Travelers.
7:32
One thing to keep an eye on, but a lot of these guys that are vets, yeah, you, y- I respect that they're approaching the tournament, uh, the right way, the way they feel is best for them, right?
7:40
So, so there's been a lot of questions about Scottie Scheffler with that this week. He's approaching this the west- best way he knows how.
7:47
Uh, but Finau, T5 at the Travelers, T3 at the US Open, T8 at the Memorial, T17 at the Charles Schwab, T18 at the PGA. Playing great golf right now.
7:55
Last 12 rounds on the PGA Tour, he's third on approach in this field, uh, third in par five scoring, which I think is gonna be key this week. Three par fives out there you gotta be able to score on.
8:04
Second in bogey avoidance, fourth in scrambling, fifth in around the green play, and 26 with the putter. So he's really checking all the boxes for me. I'm, I'm loaded up on Tony a bit this week.
8:14
I got him at an outright at 45 to 1, top 20, uh, pretty heavily there, and then in a couple matchups over Min Woo Lee and Patrick Cantlay. Um, then, see, a couple others real quick. Jon Rahm, Sungjae Im.
8:26
Jon Rahm, this is basically just a price play for me. I-I... We're out to 25, 26 to 1 on Jon Rahm. I was looking at Rahm, and I'm like, "That number seems weird." It's long. It's long. I, it's...
8:37
I, I mean, Jared, he went over to LIV, so he's kind of been out of sight, out of mind. He hasn't won on LIV. How do you feel about the LIV guys this week? I think there's some interesting prices.
8:46
Because they didn't play in the Scottish Open, right? Uh, correct. They didn't have a- So they, they didn't have that, like, warm-up. Yeah, they were, they had an event last week, though, uh- In Nashville, right?
8:55
N- no, they were over in, uh, do- down in Spain. And, uh, that was a- In Sp- Oh, so they were in Europe. Okay... they did have a big time event actually last week. So they, they had a pretty big tune-up as well.
9:03
It was a good, it was smart of LIV to do that, uh, in my opinion. But Jon Rahm, it's, uh, he hasn't won yet on LIV, but he also hasn't finished outside of the top 10.
9:11
And he's kind of been, the past couple events, he keeps gaining strokes everywhere. So I'm, at this price, it's not one I could avoid. As you can see on my card, I didn't really load.
9:20
It's not like I backed it up with a top 20 or played him in any matchups or anything. There's a chance he shows up and b- and, and is a bit of a dud, as he's kind of been in the majors so far this year.
9:30
Um, but man, I just, it's hard for me to picture a year, a year going by without Jon Rahm being a name, a factor in one of the majors. And at 25 to 1, worth a bet.
9:40
Uh, I'll f- just to answer your question, man, I think Brooks Koepka, if you wanted to say the same thing to me about Brooks, I'm fine with that. You wanna play Brooks Koepka at 40 to 1- Yeah... go right ahead.
9:50
Brooks Koepka, we see what he's like. We've seen him over the course of his career, how he plays in majors, and I'm not gonna count that guy out ever. And at a price at 40 to 1, I don't hate that.
10:00
Bryson DeChambeau, I did play Collin Morikawa in a matchup against him.
10:04
I'm not necessarily running to fade DeChambeau, but at the m- same t- uh, at, at the same time, I don't think this course is as great as a s- uh, a setup for him as he'd ideally like.
10:15
He's still, I mean, like, y- if you just, if I had my power rankings for the week, Bryson's still probably in that top 10 right around that range.
10:23
But I think there are some, there are some guys at the top of the board I'm feeling more comfortable with. And at, well, at minus 132 price on Morikawa, that was a pretty easy, uh, tournament matchup for me.
10:33
Yeah, it feels like Bryson's a good fade this week. Yeah, yeah. I think just, m- as long as you're confident on the other side, right? Yeah.
10:39
It's always, tournament matchups are the best way to bet golf, but it's, what's the problem? You don't get to create them, you know what I mean? [laughs] You've got to... I'm still waiting for that one in sports books.
10:46
That's a really, that's a really interesting creative bet. I- I'll give you another name that we've heard a lot of- Mm-hmm... that hasn't won a major yet, but he is in a market that I'm intrigued in. Okay.
10:58
Top debutant, Mr. Aberg. Yeah. Ludvig Aberg. Yeah, I mean, he's had a, uh, what is the price on him now? Two to one, basically, to be the top. He's now, um, Akshay Bhatia, I believe. Akshay Bhatia, yeah.
11:11
Yeah, Bhatia's also in there, eight to one, and I think he's eating up some equity. But let's just leave it at this. That's a, that's a good price on Ludvig. Aberg is 20.
11:19
He's like the fourth favorite to win the tournament. Yeah, yeah. He's had problems on Sundays closing, man, but his, his game is, it, it's great. And the oddsmakers are putting him right there for a reason, Jared.
11:28
Like, they don't wanna get beat up too bad on this guy before he becomes a superstar. You don't need him to win the tournament, just finish. Two to one, that's a good bet.
11:34
Just finish ahead of all the other people who've never played in an Open Championship before. Mm-hmm. Love this event. I'm definitely gonna be tweeting out some picks later tonight.
11:42
The first tee off [laughs] is at like 10 o'clock Pacific time. That's right. Crazy stuff. College football on the other side. We are so close to football season here on The Numbers Game. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game.
11:58
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12:08
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12:17
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12:27
But you also get betting systems analysis from pro cappers. You get 24/7 video content, and all of our special edition betting guides. The NFL betting guide is out now. I have not started reading it yet.
12:38
First, I have college football to get to, which we will get to in a minute. Then the NFL betting guide's next up on the docket.
12:43
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12:54
You get full VSiN Pro access through the Super Bowl for that discounted price of 175 bucks. That is VSiN.com/subscribe. All right, it's time to take a big U-turn here on the show.
13:05
Um, I'm Jared Smith in for Gil Alexander today. Kelly Bidlin here with us as well. Coming up in about 15 minutes, Chris Fallica from Fox Sports, The Bear, is gonna hop on and talk a little college football.
13:15
I will follow up with him on some of the things we are gonna discuss now, which is the SEC. We love the SEC around these parts, right? Everybody loves the SEC. SEC, SEC. It's the best conference in America.
13:28
It's the conference of now what?
13:30
Like s- they've basically stripped like seven different conferences of all of their kyber crystals, and now they've combined them into this super conference, um, without Texas and Oklahoma joining.
13:41
We were, uh, discussing in the back before the show, uh, what are we at? We're up to 16 schools in the SEC, right? 16 schools. So the way- What, what is the Big 10 now, 20? It's the Big 20 now. [laughs] The Big 20. Yeah.
13:52
The way that I view, the way that I view conferences is kind of the way that I view, like, 1984, like the old book. Sure.
14:02
Like, we're in Big Brother mode now, where in really, in, in reality, there's just this, there's just this, like, overarching, like, mega conference that I think is on the horizon. We're just not there yet.
14:14
I think we need two mega conferences, and we're gonna a- I'm gonna ask Bear about this in our next segment.
14:20
I think two conferences, like American League, National League, and, like, relegation, where you can get into and be voted off- Oh, I like that... of the island- How, how are we splitting it up? Every year.
14:30
Just geographically? Something that makes sense. I think geographically makes sense. I'm open to- So, like, Stanford isn't flying to the East Coast every, uh, every other week. Uh, but that doesn't bother me as much.
14:39
Like, the travel, to me, is not as important because these guys all travel-- It's all chartered planes. Like, even when I worked for FAU, we got a private charter plane. Mm-hmm.
14:48
And that was FAU back in the 2015 time, before, you know, before the new, uh- Oh, you were with Ken Lavica... uh, stadium. Before the- He does it styling. I was with K- hanging out with Ken Lavica.
14:57
Actually, I called one football game with Ken Lavica.
15:00
It was-- I took a tr- This was, this is the only reason that I know what the travel is like, 'cause I actually got on a plane and went to Monroe, Louisiana- Oh, yeah...
15:07
to go call the Monroe Warhawks against the Florida Atlantic Owls. I think this was the 2012 or 2013 season. I forget the exact year. Things get a little blurry before that 2020 time.
15:18
Like, 2020, it's like there's a separation. Um, but the SEC to me is obviously a very different handicap this year.
15:26
I think the two teams that stand out to me the most in terms of, okay, who's gonna be affected the most, obviously it's Texas and Oklahoma.
15:33
But I think some of the other teams in the conferences are going to be affected by the, uh, different landscape we are now, um, dealing with. Let's start with Texas. Let, let, let's, let's go to Texas.
15:44
Let's check out their win total, which is right now sitting at 10 and a half. I, I'd be interested if you guys could put Texas's schedule on the screen, is kind of where the analysis is intriguing to me.
15:53
Because I think if you do have a win total, which right now is set at 10 and a half. Again, do the math. They play 12 games in the season.
16:03
The win total-- Now, you're gonna plus money on the over, so you're getting a little bit of, getting a little bit of juice there if you wanna go over.
16:08
But you're talking about a team that has a week two game at the Big House, and if they lose that game, that's the only game they can lose for the rest of the year,
16:20
and they gotta run the table if you wanna go 11 and one and hit this win total to the over. Now, it, it's not the most daunting schedule in the SEC.
16:27
They don't have to play Alabama, which is fortunate, but they have to play Georgia at home. Yeah, even at home, I like it. So you're talking about two teams that are perennial playoff teams on your schedule.
16:38
Now, one of them's at home, but still, Michigan and Georgia are about as good as it gets in college football, and you've gotta beat them both or else you're not going over this win total.
16:48
I- if you lose both of those games, there's 10 wins right there, and that's your max. So I, I think I would be very hesitant to go over on Texas this year. Now, I do like the quarterback situation.
16:58
I think that's obviously their biggest strength. They have not one, but two that you would consider upper echelon quarterbacks. I'm assuming you were Starts, and Arch will probably be, you know,
17:10
sniffing right on his heels the whole season if he does falter. Uh, yeah. I think the offensive line's really good too. How comfortable is that gonna be? It's not. I mean, you were f- It's not gonna be comfortable...
17:17
you were just great last year [laughs]. And it's- It's not gonna be comfortable at all. People are gonna be calling for Arch as soon as he throws one interception.
17:24
If he struggles that game at Michigan, that-- we're gonna hear it. Let's leave it at this. He better play well at Colorado State. Yeah. He better play well [laughs] at that opener. I think they will.
17:33
Um, I, I really like the offensive line for Texas. I, I do think that's why they're gonna be a really positive team this year. Kelvin Banks is a, is probably an NFL starting left tackle at some point in his future.
17:42
I think the one-two punch of Blue and Baxter in the backfield are gonna combine for over 1,500 yards. I think there's a lot of talent here, as you would expect with Texas.
17:49
The defense is where I think the biggest hope is. I love Kwiatkowski, but they brought in the, uh, defensive coordinator from Arizona, Johnny Nansen, so it's gonna be kind of a co-DC scenario.
18:01
I'm interesting to see how that plays out. Kwiatkowski to me has all the experience, but Nansen, really good job at Arizona last year. You take Arizona, they're a top five defense of the Pac-12 last year.
18:10
Really impressive. The secondary to me is the biggest weakness defensively. Terrence Brooks goes to Duke. You don't see that too often, transfer from Texas to Duke in football, but that's what happened. Yeah, not really.
18:20
And they allowed over 280 passing yards six games last year. So I, I think the defense for Texas, that's why they brought in Nansen. I think that needs to be the focus this year.
18:29
Because you have a different schedule, different calendar. Everything is different this year for Texas. Now, you play Oklahoma, that's similar, but everything else this year is different.
18:37
So how they handle the rigors of the SEC, I think, is the biggest question with this handicap. I can't project how they're gonna feel on October 19th against Georgia after facing Mississippi State.
18:50
Now, I think it's not gonna be as severe in that game against Georgia. My guess is the SEC rigors really start to rear its ugly head in November at Arkansas. Fayetteville's not an easy place to play.
19:01
I don't think Arkansas is very good, but Fayetteville's not an easy place to play.
19:04
Then you get that game on November 30th against Texas A&M, the last game of the year, and I think that place, College Station, is always rocking.
19:12
But now you get an in-state conference rivalry between Texas and Texas A&M. Used to be a conference rivalry in the Big 12. Oh, come on. Yeah. Now it's another conference rivalry again in the SEC.
19:22
Like, I, I feel like, I feel like this is a really tough schedule to even consider an over. Yeah. It really is. Yeah, that, that makes a lot of sense. You're right.
19:30
I mean, you are-- I mean, you've got [laughs] you've got two w- two games to play with. Yeah [laughs] I mean, you're, you're absolutely right. Yeah.
19:36
If you lose one of those early, it is gonna be, uh, tough for you to escape with this over.
19:40
The other team that intrigues me- And really, like, minus 170, I don't wanna say only, but it's o- I mean, the way you just broke it down, which I thought was good, I mean, o- only minus 170 feels pretty light.
19:49
Feels very light because they're definitely... I, I, actually, not definitely. There might be have-- There might be game of the year lines up, actually, for that Michigan game and the Georgia game.
19:59
I would be willing to bet they're a slight dog at Michigan, and they're a slight dog at home against Georgia. Maybe that game's a pick 'em. Maybe that game's a pick 'em 'cause Georgia's a little bit...
20:11
Actually, no, I don't think Georgia's down. I don't think Georgia's down at all. Carson Becker here too. Uh, Georgia two-point favorite. So they're a fa- They're either a home favorite to Georgia.
20:20
I would probably take some action on Georgia there. Because if, if Texas loses that game to Michigan, they won't be favored in that game against Georgia. That's my initial gut.
20:29
But you're not gonna get a ton of movement there, um, over the next few months. In fact, I would be willing to wait on that one because I don't think that game's gonna get a ton of action anyway.
20:36
Texas three-and-a-half-point road favorite against Michigan. Yeah, I would not bet that. I would not bet that. I guess they're really expecting Michigan to take a step back. Yeah, I guess so. [laughs] Yeah. Wow.
20:45
'Cause I tell you what, that, the Big House is gonna be rocking for that game. Um, all right, l- another team that intrigues me this year is Tennessee.
20:52
Um, Tennessee's win total is set at nine and a half, and I'll be honest, this feels like an under two. I, and the reason why is they have two Power Five non-conference road games. They play NC State in Charlotte.
21:05
I know that's not a true road game, but let's be honest, that's a road game. And then they go to Oklahoma.
21:11
And this is a Tennessee team that doesn't play the SEC or, or Oklahoma in the SEC, so that is a new environment for them. That is a new road trip for them.
21:22
The NC State game, I, they'll be favored in that game, but let's be honest, it's a, it's, it's a, it's a Power Five non-conference true road game. You don't see that too often with teams in the SEC.
21:32
I give a lot of credit to Tennessee, um, for scheduling that game. The rest of the schedule, I think, is also kinda up and down. Game at Oklahoma and Norman early in the...
21:42
Like, they could legitimately start two and two. And then you go to Arkansas, which again, I think is a win. The rivalry game at Florida, that, that one's always tight.
21:50
Then you go, then you have to play Bama and go to Georgia. So three losses, you're cooked if you're betting over here. And you're seeing there on your screen eight and a half with heavy juice to the over.
22:01
I've seen some nine and a halves. I think over eight and a half I would be more intrigued. But do I wanna lay 70 cents for a team that has to go to Georgia, play Alabama, go to NC State or Charlotte, and go to Norman?
22:15
I mean, those are four very difficult games, and you've gotta win at least three of them or else nine and three you're kinda sitting up against it.
22:24
I, I, I think the SEC win totals this year, I think you're gonna see a lot of unders across the board. We'll get Chris Fallica's thoughts on the other side. The Bear joins us next.
22:33
College football is the rage here on The Numbers Game. Stay with us.
22:36
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22:56
All right, we are back on The Numbers Game live from downtown Las Vegas, Jared Smith, Kelly Pidlin. And joining us in studio, this is a thrill. We get him here.
23:03
I know you've been in town for the last, uh- A couple of days... a couple of days, and usually that's the end of the, the end of the Vegas bender there- It is [laughs]... when you're ready, you're ready to go home.
23:11
This is Chris Fallica, of course, of Fox Sports. Uh, does a fantastic job not only covering college football, but very busy soccer summer for you as well, sir. Yeah, it's been, it's been a while.
23:19
I was in LA, I was in LA for five weeks for the soccer. Um, came here for a couple of days to enter the Circuit Survivor- There you go... and then some other, other contests as well.
23:27
Met up with my man, my man Tom from Vegas Football Proxy, took care of me. Uh, and then I gotta go back to LA, uh, tomorrow for our annual football meetings. So it was kinda silly to fly home to Connecticut- Yeah...
23:39
just to stay home for a day and then fly back here to, uh, to go to the meeting. So I was able just to come here, knock out the content. Take a nice little- Exactly. You take a nice little siesta- Exactly...
23:48
in Vegas for a couple days. Yeah. See a couple guys about a couple things. Dixie Damn Right. Get, get the business end of the spectrum.
23:55
Um, it is always interesting we get these meccas to, uh, Vegas in the August, you know, late July, early August months because the contests, and you were talking about Circa, but all over town.
24:06
It is like, I think it's like a rat race. Like, it feels like New York City commuting, getting everywhere. Like, there's like a week in August where, like, everyone comes and just signs up- Yep...
24:15
for the contest, and it's like one of the busiest weeks of the year where there's like- It's crazy... nothing going on [laughs] except for pre-season NFL and people signing up for contests.
24:22
[laughs] So I'm glad you could take advantage of that. Totally. Um, all right, let's get to college football- Yeah... because it's such a different year.
24:28
Uh, you have expanded playoffs, you have SEC adding teams, you have Pac-12 turning into the Pac-2 and kind of evolving or devolving into whatever they're gonna turn into.
24:37
There's a lot of upheaval But when there is upheaval, sometimes the markets kind of- Yeah... miss some things. Yeah. I mean, is there something specific that you're looking at? We were discussing maybe- Mm...
24:46
to make the playoff or the division odds in the, in each conference. It is a unique year in the futures market because of all the moving parts.
24:52
Yeah, I, I think especially if you look in the, in the Big 12, first of all, uh, I think I would look at, like, the, uh, compare the odds to make the playoff, uh, compared with odds to win the Big 12, because I don't think the Big 12 is getting multiple teams in.
25:05
Nope. To see if, to see whatever team you may like, and take the longer of the two pri- if there is a difference. Maybe they've caught on and, and have priced it accordingly.
25:13
But maybe, maybe the odds to make the playoff are longer than they are to win the conference, so that would be something to play.
25:19
And, and I don't know with the bigger conferences and these big name teams, if they have caught on to, like, there is a chance, I mean, basically for Ohio State or Georgia not to make the playoff, they're probably gonna have to finish lower than third- Yeah...
25:32
in the, in the, in the con- Like, and that's probably not going to happen. So, like, I don't know if, like, these prices to make the playoff with some of these big name contenders are long enough yet. Yeah.
25:43
And, and it is interesting because we were, uh, to me, a lot of these books you can parlay futures prices. Mm-hmm.
25:48
And I think that is becoming a very popular way to play futures, especially if you can space it out by season.
25:54
But if you can parlay teams to make the playoff, and take a, let's say an Ohio State, which is basically a $6 favorite- Yep... Georgia's a $5 favorite to make the playoff.
26:03
In order for those teams not to make the playoff, it, it has to be a disaster- Yes... of a season.
26:09
And if you could take a minus 650, minus 550, and shorten those odds and get yourself in a good spot, you can play off of that as we get- Yes... later in the year, because one game is gonna determine it.
26:19
So once you get to the end of the year, odds are one game is gonna determine yay or nay making it in the playoffs.
26:24
And then if you've got a nice ticket in your hand, in your back pocket you've been sitting on all year, you can find some ways to find some value.
26:30
And, and the way these rankings take place, the, what, what the committee look at, like, even if we- Georgia were to lose, they, their three games that they have, what, at Alabama, uh, Texas, and Ole Miss. Yeah.
26:40
Like, nine and three, Georgia SEC beat everybody else, like, they're still going to be right there on the, right on the, uh- Yes... and they probably won't lose all three of them. No.
26:49
But it's going to take that in order for them not to make the playoff.
26:52
And Ohio State, y- you, they got the game at Oregon, they got the Michigan game, they got Penn State, but, like, they're not gonna lose all three of those. So- No... I, I, I don't know.
27:00
That, that, that's just something I, if you, if you, if you have no issue put, throwing a couple teams together in a parlay and laying, laying, laying a number like that, I, I think that's a, I think that's a good investment.
27:10
I think the SEC and the Big 10 are the two conferences that I'm most intrigued to see what the vibe is. Mm-hmm. New travel, that is m- And as someone who travels all the time- Yeah...
27:20
that is important because these teams, the programs, the recruits, they're all used to going through a certain routine, and now you throw that routine off, especially the coaching and the scouting.
27:29
There are going to be some wild upsets, I think, this year when you have these Oregons going across the country, vice versa going west, east going west, west going east. It feels like chaos.
27:39
It always feels like chaos, but this year I think it's gonna be ratcheted up to another degree. And, and I think as well, i- if you look at the new teams to the SEC, the Te- Texas and Oklahoma,
27:49
yes, Texas went to Bryant-Denny and won last year at, and Alabama, but they're going to have to back that up now- Exactly... with another diff- It's not like they're gonna be playing- Any random Big 12 team- Exactly...
28:02
on their schedule. I don't wanna, I don't wanna... They're not gonna be playing Cincinnati the week of, or whoever it was. BYU. [laughs] Exactly. They're g- they're gonna be playing another, like, legit- Yeah...
28:11
difficult team. Like, even a, even a team like Mississippi State or, or Arkansas who are two of the lower expected win total teams in the SEC. Like, that's not even, not a gimme.
28:20
I, I don't know who Texas plays, uh, after some of their big games this year, but, but it, it's not...
28:25
And people who are, like, not SEC folk go, "Oh, you, here you go again, b- waxing poetic and preaching about the SE-" But it is different, the quality of those teams.
28:35
So look, Texas has recruited great lately, and maybe they are up to, to snuff to be able to do that. Oklahoma I'd be a little worried about. I think they're- Yeah... I think Oklahoma's still a little young.
28:44
They might be a y- a year away with Arnold and some of the, the good recruiting classes that they've had the last couple years. And I'm not fully sold on Venables yet as a head coach.
28:52
I think as a defensive coordinator he's fantastic. Oh, yeah. But I just, it, to me, when you make that ascension to the head coaching spot, there's a lot of wrinkles to iron out.
29:00
Speaking of that, I was watching a segment this morning, SEC Media Day- Mm-hmm... and I saw Kalen DeBoer. Actually, he's on the screen right now. There he is. Kalen DeBoer, Alabama head coach. It's weird.
29:10
Man, that looks- It's weird... that looks- It's weird... weird, right?
29:13
Like, it's gonna be an adjustment not only for Alabama, but I think just college football in general getting used to a very different regime- Yep, it is... in Tuscaloosa.
29:21
And, and that's, and that's gonna be the biggest, one of the bigger questions is... And it's funny, you just see Nick Saban on with Finebaum- Yeah... and he doesn't have the little Alabama pin on his lapel either.
29:29
Like, that's another different thing. But I think i- if you, if you look at... I lost my train of thought now. St- still has his office, though, in the house now- He does... in Tuscaloosa. He, he does.
29:38
E- exact- He looks good. He looks happy... exactly. No, he does, he does. He looks happy. He loo- He looks more sprightly... he does look great. But I think that's gonna be the thing.
29:43
Like Alabama, we saw what Alabama was before Nick Saban got there, and struggled for a really long time, uh, b- between, uh, Gene Stallings and, and Nick. And there were so many different coaches.
29:54
Like, i- was Alabama truly just the Nick Saban dynasty? Yeah. Or is Alabama back to being what they were u- under other coaches is what...
30:03
That, that's gonna be the interesting thing because, uh, this guy has won everywhere he's been. Yeah. Hasn't necessarily had the best talent wherever, uh, he, wherever he's been, but he wins games as underdogs.
30:15
Like, you saw them beat, uh, Oregon a couple times last year. Yep. You saw, you saw them get in the playoff in, in pulling an upset over Texas.
30:22
This guy can coach, and, uh, I, I wouldn't, uh, be betting against him to put up another, uh, nine or 10-win season this year. The Big Ten is always, uh, close to my heart, Penn State alum.
30:32
Um, we had a chance to talk about Penn State- Mm-hmm... a little bit when you hopped on earlier this summer. I'm still in the same boat with them, but the rest of the Big Ten, to me, is intriguing.
30:41
Because you get this now divide where you have USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington, all these teams kind of going across the country here. Is there one of those newcomers that you feel really strongly about?
30:50
Obviously, Oregon's the, the- Yeah... you know, the low-hanging fruit. But do you think that may be... I guess that's a great way to focus on it. Dan Lanning, I think, is a fantastic coach.
30:58
Oregon, to me, has all of the tools, but- The Big Ten is a gauntlet.
31:03
Do you think that gauntlet is what maybe trips up the Ducks or any of these other, uh, Pac-12 schools that are entering into a very different landscape? Yeah, I am down on both USC and UCLA, bo- both the LA schools.
31:16
I, I think UCLA is- Yeah... headed towards a really bad season and, and I don't think SC has the talent level that people think that they have, uh, now that Caleb's departed.
31:25
The difference with Oregon is they've beaten these Big 10 teams in the past. They, they've, they, they've beaten Ohio State in Columbus. Yeah. And even going back, they, they've beaten Wisconsin.
31:34
They've gone to, to play maybe Michigan State. They've gone to these teams and either won or lost maybe a close game. A- and the way Dan Lanning has built this team, uh, he's built them like an SEC program. Yeah.
31:44
They've got one of the, the, the deeper NIL po- uh, budgets in the country to be able to get whomever they want in.
31:50
They have a, a very difficult home, f- uh, I shouldn't say very diff- a very, very difficult place for opponents to go play. They have one of the better home field advantages in the country.
31:59
Uh, I don't, I don't think this Big 10 gauntlet is going to trip up Oregon at all. I, I think... It was funny.
32:04
I, I think the, the, the answer to the question, like I, I posed this to, uh, to someone the other day, like, "If Ohio State or Georgia do not win the national championship, who would it be?"
32:14
And, and, and Oregon was like the immediate answer. Yeah. Oregon makes a lot of sense to me. Go ahead, Kel. No, no, I, I have not heard that, I feel like, from anybody else. That's interesting.
32:23
They're the fourth favorite on the board right now. I heard some buzz for Ole Miss. I don't know if you have any thoughts about their roster heading into the year. We know Lane Kiffin can coach. Right.
32:30
Their roster's good, but I think they're one of those teams that's just super volatile, upside down side. I was gonna say they always seem to have one of those games.
32:37
And I, and I love Lane and I'm so happy that he's done well now. I think he, he took a little bit of a, a, a, a bad rap and some heat for a while and, uh, with some of the off the field stuff.
32:47
But he, he has proven that he, he can coach. And again, they, they brought s- some guys and they lo- they lost Judkins to Ohio State, which is a big deal, but, uh, they, they still have a lot of talent.
32:56
I just wonder though, I, I, I still think that they're, they're a team where, like, like you said, one, one week they'll, they'll find themselves in a, in a, in a game with someone that they probably shouldn't, and I'm not sure that they're quite up to the beating Georgia level yet.
33:10
I agree. Chris Fallica, enjoy the season. Good luck. I will. Enjoy the rest of your time in Vegas. We appreciate it, bud. I will. Gonna have to take a walk behind us right now and- Yeah...
33:18
and, uh, make, make, make some wagers. That's the beauty of this show is we do some television, you make some wagers. Chris is winning the open. That's the way it works. Oh, that's a good question.
33:27
Uh, I, Zander or Oberg, those are the two that I'm landing on. Okay. Like it. Oberg top debutant at two to one is a bet I got to make. I love it. Great stuff.
33:36
We'll talk to some DraftKings people on the other side, a little NBA. Stay with us here on A Numbers Game. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:54
All right, let's wrap up the show. Jared Smith, Kelly Bidlin here, downtown Las Vegas, hanging out at the D. This is A Numbers Game.
34:00
And joining us now back to back again, Kelly Bidlin deserves the MVP trophy today for booking such a fantastic show. We go from Chris Fallica to Amin Elhassan, host of the Odd Ball podcast on the DraftKings network.
34:11
We go from college football to the NBA. Amin, it's great to have you here, pal. You're in town for Summer League. It's been, uh, an exciting, uh, time.
34:17
Uh, uh, of course, the NBA kind of resets their fiscal year this week as we get into a new season.
34:23
Before we get to some of the big picture stuff, your overall takeaways from Summer League, i- is there anything that you can kind of draw as like, "Hey, I'm watching this kid," or, "I'm watching this team and I'm really excited to look at them-" Right...
34:33
going into the year?" Yeah, I mean, like, if you look at Summer League, really 90% of it is this is our winter meetings, right? Sure. It's a convention. Everybody's here.
34:42
And the other thing is everybody's in a good mood. [laughs] Everyone always feels like, "Hey, we had a great off-season. We, we drafted a kid we really like. We signed someone. We traded for someone.
34:50
We hired a new coach that we really like." And so it was a lot more open, a lot more giving and talking. Obviously, Las Vegas is a fun place to be. Yeah. A lot of great restaurants and things to get into.
34:59
So i- it's, that's the, that's the value of this thing. It's the convention aspect of it. But then when you look at the games, you look at the players out there. I was asked this question yesterday.
35:09
I said, "You know what? It's not necessarily like what your stats were or did you win all your games or not. I wanna see are you-- do you know how to play," right? Yeah. "Are, are you doing the right things?
35:20
Maybe not getting the right results in the moment, but are you playing the right way? And then if not, or if adversity hits, how are you responding to all that?" And that's the thing you look at.
35:30
So a great example of this I could say is that I don't think Kristaps Porziņģis had a great, uh, Summer League when he came over. Sure. But I remember watching him and I said, "You know what?
35:38
He's playing with a bunch of guards who aren't gonna be in the NBA the next year. These guys are all just trying to make a name for themselves." Yeah.
35:43
"Dribbling the, the air out of the ball and shooting every time because they think that's what's gonna get them noticed. And this kid is setting the screen right every single time. He's not getting discouraged."
35:52
A lot of times bigs will do it two, three times, like, "They're never looking for me. Why am I even doing this right?" So that always stood out to me when I watched him.
35:59
And every year there's someone you watch and you say, "Okay, like, I'm, uh, I noticed this about you." And I think those are the things that you can project.
36:06
But at the end of the day, this is the best analogy I can give you. Like, Summer League is like freshman orientation going to college. Okay. Is it college? No. Oh.
36:15
Could you show up to freshman orientation bright and early with your pencil sharpened and taking notes and be a terrible college student? Yes. Could you also show up- Sounds like me... dr- [laughs]
36:26
Could you also show up drunk out of your mind, throwing up in, in the middle of the- [laughs]... the orientation session and making a fool of yourself and still end up being a pretty good college student? Also. Yeah.
36:35
That, that could happen. So it, it... Look, it can tell us right now where you're at, but it, it's not gonna tell us where you're gonna be 10 years from now or even five years from now. Yeah. I think fundamentals.
36:45
The, uh, do you have the fundamentals to play? Do you have the mindset to come in and work hard? And the rest takes care of itself. You've gotta be in a good situation.
36:54
You've gotta play for a team that can put you in the- Right... best chance to succeed.
36:58
And that brings us to a player that I think, uh, not only has been playing here in Summer League, but also is kind of in question in that regard. Mm-hmm. And that's Bronny James. And I don't wanna make this a hot take.
37:07
I don't wanna make this a controversial thing. When you watch him, do you get those same vibes? Fundamentals, yes, but maybe just needs time to develop. Yeah, I mean, uh, the, the, this is the weird thing.
37:17
So a lot of times when we talk about guys- Top seven pick, top 10 pick. And so we're, we are searching for those positives, 'cause like, hey, he was top 10 for a reason. Yeah. You know, just give it time or whatever.
37:28
Right. This kid's a 55th pick, so I thought we all knew he's not going to be NBA ready this year. The Lakers said it. JJ Redick said he's a development project. He's a developmental project.
37:40
So when he comes here and everyone's kind of harshly judging him like he's supposed to be ready to play right now, I said, "No one ever said that." We all k- well, maybe his dad said it or whatever.
37:49
[laughs] But other than that, other than that, everyone else involved in his, like, career has said this is a work in progress.
37:56
And so the, you know, he went out there, he did not shoot well, he did not make good decisions, he turned it over a lot. But I never saw him frustrated once. I never saw him lash out.
38:06
I never saw him kind of like be a bad teammate. And are those things alone going to carry him to a great NBA career? No.
38:14
But as long as he's got the work ethic and, uh, the opportunity to be developed, and that doesn't mean minutes at the NBA level, but, like, just working with the coaches, I think in like two or three years he can be a solid NBA role player.
38:27
D- do you think you will, we will see the Lakers force him into action at some point this year? That was gonna be my next question.
38:33
'Cause I, I think from the basketball standpoint, we, the realistic expectation should be a couple years, right? I mean... Yes. So I would say, uh, preseason for sure. Sure.
38:41
He'll get some time out there, especially like in the second half where everyone's like, "W- what are we doing?" Right. [laughs] Yeah. [laughs] "Why, why are we playing our guys?"
38:48
I think he's gonna s- start the year down in the G League. Uh, I mean, he might start on the roster and never play. Right. But then, uh, whenever G League starts, he's gonna go there.
38:57
He's gonna be there the whole year, and I think at some point at the end of the year, depending on, like, what's happening in the Lakers season, he gets the call up and maybe you get a game in with your dad. Gotcha.
39:07
Yeah. That's the voice of Amin Elhassan, host of the Oddball podcast on the DraftKings network. Excited to talk a little NBA. All right. So I'll, I'll throw some of these random Bronny props at you. Okay.
39:16
[laughs] And you tell me if this has any... There's really only two of them I'm interested in. Okay. And they're posted on DraftKings right now. They're both around even odds. So again, they're kind of coin flip bets.
39:26
Do we think he's going to score 15 points or more in any game this year? No. I agree. Is there a no option on any of these? No. [laughs] No. That's why I'm not, that's why I'm not betting these.
39:37
The one that does intrigue me, and this one's priced a little bit more aggressively, this one, this one's plus 120, him to make three threes in a game this year. Oof.
39:47
I mean, if he made three threes, he's gonna score 15 points in that game. [laughs] Exactly. So, so that's why I wouldn't bet- Yeah... the 15 points, which is minus 110. I would, I would go to the three threes. Yeah.
39:55
'Cause you're right, if he makes three threes in a game, the odds are he's gonna get to 15 points. Right. That one feels a little bit more palatable because three shots, right? Yeah. Like, it, it, it, it's random.
40:05
Like, he could have a game where, you know, they're down by 40 to the Mavericks- Right... in like March, and they throw him in there and just give him some run. Yeah. Yeah. And, and, and especially like, you know,
40:14
uh, early in his career, his opportunities to score are gonna come from one of two things: transition- Sure... or I was set, sitting there in the corner- Kick out three...
40:24
waiting and someone threw, and my feet are set, my eyes are wide open, and my heart is clear, you know? [laughs] So I guess it, that could happen. Uh, uh, definitely to me, in my mind, more likely than 15 points.
40:34
I like it. N- no reason to bet him now, though, 'cause a- Yeah... as Amin's talking, w- and like the whole idea is he's, it's gonna be l- if we see him at all- If we see him at all... it's gonna be later in the season.
40:42
Work in progress. Wait till he actually gets called up, then you can bet props then. And decent chance that if he starts the season in the G League, these numbers decrease, and you can get a better price- Yeah...
40:52
down the road. All right, speaking of prices that were changing, um, Philly's price was the biggest mover in the off-season. Mm-hmm.
40:58
Of course, the Paul George move, um, basically has them on par right now with some of the other top teams in the Eastern Conference. I think the biggest question I've heard some back and forth, Knicks, Sixers.
41:10
I think those are the two, right, the next teams behind Boston.
41:14
Even with the deal for Paul George, do you think that did enough to put the Sixers in front of the Knicks, or do you think what the Knicks did last year in getting Brunson back on that reduced contract, some more flexibility, I know they lost Isaiah Hartenstein.
41:26
Which one of those two teams do you prefer? So, uh, the win totals came out. DraftKings put out the win totals. Yep. Knicks were at 52 and a half, I believe, and Sixers at 51 and a half.
41:35
Yep, we got them on the screen right now. Right there. Oh, yeah. Basically, basically right neck and neck. Right.
41:39
I, I believe the delta there is about people's, uh, lack of confidence in the health of Joel Embiid- Agreed... and to a lesser extent, the, the health of Paul George, who hasn't been exactly Iron Man either. Mm-hmm.
41:51
I think that's all, that's all being represented right there. On paper, the Sixers are a more talented team. They just are. Joel Embiid is MVP of the league, uh, or he was a year ago. Could be.
42:02
And he, and he could be again. Could be, yeah. [laughs] Yeah.
42:04
Jalen Brunson to be MVP would s- even as great as he played this last year, still is kind of like, all right, you guys need to win 60 games, and it's a lot of caveats to get him to MVP caliber, whereas Embiid is like legitimately, "I'm one of the five best players in the NBA.
42:18
I'm on the MVP ballot every single season," right? Uh, Paul George, uh, again, a three-and-D guy extraordinaire, can create. Uh, and then, uh, there are other off-season moves that they did. Adding Caleb Martin. Yeah.
42:30
Who's, uh, a young vet who's played deep in the playoffs, played in the NBA finals. Mm-hmm. Had a, a hell of a game seven against Boston a year ago.
42:38
Uh, you add Andre Drummond, who at this point, serviceable backup center. Even a guy like, um, [smacks lips] uh, man, Eric Gordon- Yeah... can come in off the bench, give you some scoring power.
42:48
I like, I like how Dalmore rounded out this roster with guys that are experienced but can still have some productivity.
42:56
To me, I think the Sixers, I mean, it feels like a good bet, but the reason why it is is because they know Joel Embiid gets hurt and this whole math changes.
43:05
It w- as far as the injuries go, I mean, i- is it too much pressure on Jalen Brunson this year? When I just look at that team, I love the makeup and what we saw- Yeah...
43:12
in the postseason, but man, it requi- it's gonna require consistent scoring at a high level from Jalen Brunson, it feels like to me.
43:19
So, so in a weird way, the Knicks have kind of the same conversation, albeit not with their best player, right? Yeah. With Philly, it's your best player.
43:26
With the Knicks, it's like, oh, Giannis Anunoby, is he gonna stay healthy? Is Josh Hart- Randle... not gonna fall apart? Is Julius Randle gonna be healthy? And those are the kind of things right there.
43:34
I think Mikal Bridges really adds another dimension to them.
43:38
But the Knicks are always gonna have to be the overachieving team, because talent-wise, they're not more talented than Boston, and they're not more talented than the Sixers.
43:44
And I'll argue they're not even more talented than the Bucks. Right. That, that one's a debate, especially 'cause we didn't see Dame's best stuff last year. Yeah.
43:51
And we didn't see really that team come together, um, at all. A- and I think they have a lot of growing to do as well. Don, definitely does not have a lot of growing to do.
43:59
Amin Elhassan of the Oddball podcast on the DraftKings network. Go check it out. Enjoy the time in Vegas, pal. Absolutely. Uh, my flight's in a couple hours. [laughs] I'm out of here.
44:07
[laughs] Summer League has that way of creeping up on you. All of a sudden now it's football season as the NBA, uh, says farewell to their Summer League fun. Uh, great stuff. Awesome s- awesome show.
44:17
Siya Najaud came on, Will Hill, Chris Felica, Larry, Matt, and Sean in the back. Kelly Bidlin, I'm Jared Smith. This is a Numbers Game on Vsan. Stay with us. [upbeat music]
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