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Jul 17, 2026
A Numbers Game | July 17, 2026 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | July 17, 2026 | Hour 2
00:00
46:20
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat rock music] This is VSiN, the sports betting network. The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:20
20 leagues, one mission. JustWinBets, baby, is your premier source for daily sports betting picks. They break down the data so you can bet with confidence across the entire sports calendar.
0:29
Scan the QR code or visit JustWinBetsbaby.com today and start betting smarter with JustWinBets, baby. The name says it all. Speaking of names, that's Kelly Bidlin. I'm Dustin Sweetolson.
0:39
It's a numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Kelly, uh, back in the day, maybe about two, three years ago, he'd be considered a bear in some places. When I lived in West Hollywood- Wow...
0:50
I was considered a bear. I was definitely considered a bear when I lived in West Hollywood. You don't think you are anymore? I don't live there anymore.
0:55
Yeah, but you don't, you don't think you're considered a bear anymore? I guess, does that travel with you? Yeah, it tr- of course it travels. I mean- And the OG of bears is our next guest. He is Chris 'The Bear' Fallica.
1:03
He is the host of Bear Bets over at Fox Sports, and he joins us now on the progressive guest line. Chris, we'll, we'll get to the World Cup, we'll get to some of the horse racing- Mm-hmm... as well.
1:14
But I wanna continue a conversation we had during the break where you and I might be on opposite sides here, and I like the case you're making. The Miami Hurricanes, I'm a fan. You're an alum, so obviously you're a fan.
1:24
Minus 136 to win the ACC. Media day's going down in, in North, uh... or not north. In Greensboro, North Carolina right now.
1:32
I'm not willing to lay that number because I have trust issues with Mario Cristobal, but I thought your argument was pretty strong as to why they might be worth a look on the other end going against me.
1:42
I've already bet it. I bet it at 135 already. So, like, you look at the schedule. They're, they're gonna be in the ACC Championship game. I mean, they do have the trip to, to Clemson and that.
1:52
Who knows what Clemson is going to be. But w- when have they not shown up for, for a big game under Mario Cristobal? Every, every big game they have, they, they should.
1:59
And I think, I think that Mario Cristobal, uh, kinda gacks games away. I think that narrative, uh, needs to go away. Yes, they did lose at, against Louisville last year with, what, four Carson Beck interceptions.
2:11
I think three, mayf- I think it was four, and the fourth one didn't count because the play was called back. So they lost that game and Ret- and, uh, Jeff Brohm's always given them problems. Yeah.
2:22
Uh, the SMU game was a game where they had eight starters out. Uh, a late flag on a weird call. Wind up losing in overtime against a good SMU team. So you, you lost those games.
2:33
And the rest of the season, and saw those inferior teams that they needed to pummel to, to get to the playoff, they did. So I, I think that's a thing of the past. The only issue I have with, uh, Miami...
2:45
I shouldn't say issue. Concern. The biggest issue and concern I have is while I believe they're going to be more talented than they were last year, you lose the guts leaders- Yeah... locker room guys on the team.
2:57
You lose Keyonté Scott. You lose CJ Daniels. You lose Keylan Marion. Uh, you'll, you'll lo- you'll lose Ruben Bain. You'll lose Akheem Missadore. Like, the g- heart in CeCe Magoa.
3:09
You lose those guys who not only were great players, but great leaders that kinda self-policed the team.
3:14
So you're gonna need a, a, a Moten or a Fletcher or a Tony or a Motoré, someone like that to step in and kinda be that glue guy in the locker room. But, uh, talent-wise, uh, they are by far the best team in the ACC.
3:29
I don't disagree with anything you said. I, I just think about maybe it's not even Cristobal, maybe it's some of the transgressions of the past. I remember late games at Pitt. Yeah.
3:36
Couple years ago, uh, Syracuse at the end of the year. Syracuse. Georgia Tech at the end of the... Georgia Tech was Cristobal. But y- you're right. Including the playoffs, too. Let's factor in how big those games are.
3:47
He always shows up dialed up. They always win at the line of scrimmage. And at this point, I just trust them with transfer quarterbacks.
3:53
We've reached a point in college football in this landscape now, we're finding out who knows how to work the transfer portal and get players, but more importantly- Mm-hmm... how to work them in and develop them.
4:02
Miami back-to-back years. Cam Ward, number one pick in the draft. That was not anticipated. Carson Beck, a third rounder going to Arizona, might start this year.
4:11
And now they bring in maybe the best of them all in Mensah. I bet him 16 to 1 here at Circa for the Heisman. Do you think he has a chance to be a part of that elite group, or is he on the outside looking in?
4:22
Oh, he absolutely has a chance to be part of the elite group because I think the winner of that Miami-Notre Dame game on November 7th is going to be undefeated and be the number one-ranked team in the country going into the playoff.
4:33
And I think if you have, uh, certainly the quarterback at Notre Dame, if they go undefeated, uh, he will win the Heisman Trophy, CJ Carr.
4:39
With Miami, the only concern I have with your bet there is do we have a situation where there's a little bit of a votes split. Does, does Malachi Tony get some votes? Hmm. Uh, does Mark Fletcher get some votes?
4:51
I think you'd be in a really good position, but I would c- be concerned about that. But I don't think this is going to be a year in general where you can look at that list right now,
5:00
anybody below Trinidad Chambliss, just get rid of right now. Uh, well, I shouldn't say. Hmm. Gunner Stockton would be a guy that you could throw in there.
5:07
But w- with the talent level at quarterback and you kinda have that separation of, of teams and players there, Carr, Manning, Mensah, Moore, Sain, Chambliss, like, Stockton potentially.
5:21
Like, it's gonna be one of those teams 'cause one of those teams is going to be number one. One of those teams is gonna be 11 and 1, 12 and 0 most likely. And one of those quarterbacks will win that.
5:29
This is not going to be a Fernando Mendoza coming from off the map at 100, 150 to 1 or Travis Hunter of 65, 70, 80 to 1 a couple years ago. This is gonna be a very form full year, I believe, uh, in the Heisman market.
5:43
All I know, fellas, is it's gonna be a long college football season for this Florida State grad. [laughs] And I don't wanna see that ACC odds board, like, ever again. [laughs] That is a real depressing thing to look at.
5:54
Boy, 35 to 1 and, uh, minus 135. Okay. Over to the World Cup. [laughs] Chris, let's head there to, uh, one of the most historic pitches in all of soccer, uh, the Meadowlands.
6:04
We'll, we'll go over there for the- [laughs]... uh, World Cup final here. Spain and Argentina. I think I'm gonna be sitting on the sidelines, but you're loaded up with a couple more bets for the final.
6:14
What are you looking at here? Yeah, where, where, where Shep Messing and, uh, Giorgio Chinaglia and Pele, uh, ma- made their, made their hay- Of course... over, uh, in, in North, in northern Jersey.
6:25
I do think Spain to lift the cup is the, the play that I like the most here.
6:29
I, I believe Argentina is going to be a very trendy public side, but I just think the way Spain have the ability to control the ball and, a- and ma- and just kind of suck the life out of the game, uh, like they had, like they did against France, uh, like, like they did against Portugal.
6:47
Uh, if it gets to extra time and it gets to penalties, uh, you would think with Emi Martinez, Argentina might find a little bit of magic.
6:54
But this feels like a one-nil, a two-nil type of game, just like the Spain-France match, uh, did the other day.
7:01
I know there have been some reports about Lamine Yamal, uh, nursing a, a, I believe a thigh injury, but they say he's under no, uh, concern for missing the match.
7:10
Even if he's not in, I still like the play, and you might be able to get a little better price o- o- on that, uh, because you just look at the midfield that Spain have.
7:19
You look at the defense that they have with Cucurella and, and Pedro Porro, and Bocah Barsi, who has been the best young player in the tournament. They just t- do not allow shots.
7:30
I think Unai Simon, the keeper, has made six or seven saves the entire tournament. So you don't get shots on goal, you can't score, and Spain do not allow shots on goal.
7:39
I think Spain win one-nil, two-nil, something in that range. What are we thinking about Saturday? Yeah. Because th- this, as Americans and as non-soccer guys for me and Kelly- We got more questions about this.
7:50
Yeah [laughs] We're, we're, we're ki- we're kind of in the group think of how does England get up from this? You see it from a betting angle- Right...
7:56
over and over again, demoralizing loss with so much on the line, and now you have to play again. And they're ma- there's no way they're gonna run it back here with Thomas Tuchel for another World Cup.
8:06
So his days are numbered. How do you see this one going in the third place game, where right now in the betting market, France is minus 215 and England's plus 170? I think you need to look, wait.
8:18
I would not make any wager until you either get information on the starting lineups- Okay... or see the starting lineups because I, because I agree.
8:27
Uh, if you look at the, the, the, the England locker room right now, I don't know how you get up from that. Like you said, uh, Thomas Tuchel even said the day, like no one wants to play this match.
8:38
I, and I would ima- I would imagine Fran- at least you could make a case that in Didier Deschamps' final match, uh, you would think that France wouldn't like to send him out a winner. But again- Hmm...
8:50
do we know what type of lineups we're going to?
8:52
Are we going to see, uh, an effort to put Kylian Mbappé out there, or Harry Kane, uh, out there to w- make a, maybe try and score two, three goals, uh, to win the, to win the Golden Boot? I don't know.
9:03
Uh, I do know, the only thing I am sure about in this game is that this is not going to extra time. Yeah, I don't know what the, the numbers are on the three-way.
9:13
You could pro- maybe get, if you can get a, some type of arb or a scalp out of three-way, you could probably do that, 'cause the last thing these guys are gonna wanna do after suffering through the, the losses that they did in the semifinal is have to play another 30 minutes in the heat and humidity of South Florida, where I believe there's also a really good chance of late afternoon thunderstorms, which could kind of put, put a little kink in things as well.
9:36
But uh, yeah, I would not make any wa- You could even find like own goal at like nine to one or so. [laughs] That might be a, a fun little, uh- Yeah...
9:44
I, I know Dustin, you like to throw a little, uh, f- funsies bets out there on- Yeah... player props and such. Like that might even be a little, a little fun thing to watch, like, uh, could be a little loose play. Yeah.
9:53
But yeah, I, I, I would, I would wait and w- look at the lineups before really getting involved here. Chris, minus 110 for France, draw plus 285, England plus 270 on the three-way. And then how does this affect- Okay...
10:05
your thoughts on Golden Boot? Uh, and i- is that, I, I, do we think Mbappé's live, or is he just not a, not a bet you can make right now 'cause you don't know if he's gonna play or not? You don't know if he's gonna play.
10:16
A- a- and that's the ultimate thing, and I would not expect Messi to score more than one goal probably in the final against France. Yeah. But he does ho- have the edge on assists.
10:26
He's got four assists now as well after having the couple i- in the semifinal. So Mbappé is going to have to win it outright.
10:33
So we're, we're just gonna have to wait and see, um, if indeed he does, uh, be, get named to the 11 after not scoring and really being a non-factor, uh, in, in the semifinals.
10:43
So I would not make a, make a wager here, um, be- because I, I, just at the uncertainty of whether- Right... there's going to be a, a roster, uh, turnover or not. Chris, 30 seconds.
10:54
Horse racing this weekend, what are we looking at? Yep. I, I, I think we can start today at Saratoga, and the number eight horse, Awesome Czech in the Diana Rose.
11:02
Uh, trainer Horacio Depaz is winning everything right now at Saratoga. This horse goes back into a, a New York bred handicap type race. I think, yeah, very live here. Del Mar opening day as well.
11:15
Uh, don't forget to fire in- Right... on Del Mar later today. Uh, the number eight, Charlie's Curlin in the Oceanside Handicap, the t- the traditional, uh, opening day, uh, feature there, uh, for Jeff Mullins.
11:24
Uh, I think this horse taking back off the pace, uh, sending from an outside post looks to be very good. And then the Haskell tomorrow looks like it's gonna go.
11:33
Obviously, the weather in the northeast could be an issue, but The Puma is back.
11:36
Remember, he was one of the Triple Crown favorites earlier in the year, got injured, and I think he's going to be better off now for the remainder of the year not having the attrition of the Triple Crown.
11:45
The Puma, 7 to 2, I like him for the Haskell. The Bear, Chris Fallica, breaking down the pony here on The Numbers Game. Thanks for the time, man. Good luck with all the bets. Appreciate you.
11:55
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12:02
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13:27
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Dustin Swedelson in the power chair filling in for Gil Alexander. One more day.
13:45
Gil's back on Monday? Back on Monday. We'll find out if he did anything. We think. Yeah, we'll find out. He's playing tennis right now, I know that. Is he in Vegas or he's in San Francisco? San Francisco.
13:55
Hopefully he doesn't leave his heart there. Well, hopefully. [laughs] Hopefully. That's, that's Kelly Bidlin. Uh, we got a great tweet here. We get tweets, @dustinswedelson, @kellybidlin, @vsinlive.
14:05
Trip Tapper, always a great tweeter here. This might be tweet of the day, 'cause he is, uh, he's barking up my alley. This is something I was considering, and I think we're gonna do it.
14:14
He said, "Take a look at the ACC schedule for NC State. My goodness, you couldn't ask for a softer slate." He's 100% spot on. This reminds me of Virginia from a year ago. Virginia played nobody. They played nobody, Paul.
14:29
Uh, they open with Virginia on the road, ironically in Charlottesville. After that, it's Richmond, at Vandy post Di- Diego Pavia. App State, Louisville, who'll be fine, but I'm not scared of.
14:42
Wake, at Stanford, Cal, Duke, Syracuse, Florida State, and at Miami. So hold on. They avoid Clemson. They avoid Miami. They avoid SMU, who I think's gonna be very punchy this year.
14:54
Now, the opener with Virginia is in Brazil. That's one thing to know. It's not in Charlottesville. I'm looking at my notes now. What? Uh, it's in Brazil apparently. [laughs] I, I don't know how I missed that.
15:04
Let me confirm. All right. Sure. Sometimes I, I write things down in my notes and I'm like, "Is that true? Is it in Brazil? Let me just confirm." Man, I, I struggle enough with us- Yeah...
15:12
putting these NFL games everywhere. We're- There, go college football with, uh, w- what's the matchup? NC State, Virginia?
15:19
NC- Virginia, an ACC matchup we're outsourcing to Br- And I, I'm willing to bet it's not technically an ACC game. We had this a year ago, Big 12 opener in Ireland. Kansas State verse somebody. Right, yeah.
15:31
Iowa State, and it technically wasn't a Big 12 game. Yeah. It was technically they're out of conference. No, you're pr- you're probably right then. If they did that already, then yeah.
15:39
But based on everything I looked about NC State, and I love CJ Bailey, their quarterback. Uh, we were just talking to our producer Danny Higgins in the break.
15:45
I don't understand how he stayed, because he's a 6'6" monster, 31 total touchdowns a year ago. And I f- just felt like a big school should've came and said, "Oh, we're trying to make the playoff.
15:55
Can we have you for, like, 3 to 5 million?" I don't, I don't know what q- quarterbacks are going for these days. Right. But offense averaged 30.2 points per game a year ago. They went 8 and 5. Dave Doeren is boring.
16:05
Like, he is as boring- Mm. Mm-hmm... a head coach as you can find. He's not a motivational speaker. Yeah. No one's gonna confuse him for Tony Robbins, but he wins. 95 and 70 over 13 years.
16:14
They have to replace their running back in Hollywood Smothers. They have to replace five of [laughs] their leading pass catchers- [laughs]... from a year ago. Okay. But Bailey's a dual threat.
16:23
They brought in some guys from the portal, an App State receiver, a Miami receiver. Uh, Joe Joe Trader was a former big pro- prospect. So they brought in a couple guys from Miami actually.
16:31
And, uh, their sophomore running back Duke Scott takes over. We'll see what he can be.
16:35
They love this East Carolina offensive lineman they brought in, Jamarion McCrimmon, which sounds like one of the names from the Key & Peele, Peele skit. Yeah, for real. Uh, the defense was not good last year.
16:45
Could be a team we're looking at overs on. Overs. I anticipate they're getting better 'cause they hit the portal hard. They brought in a D lineman, Aguirre from Miami, who should be pretty good.
16:54
Another one from Penn State in Dekari Nelson. Tulane edge Harvey Dyson, who led the AAC in sacks with eight a year ago, comes in. A Georgia corner, Andre Evans.
17:04
Safety Penn State, uh, uh, safety from Penn State King Mack joins the fold. So I think the defense should be better, but it's the schedule. That, that's why you have to consider them as an overplay this year.
17:15
I wanna see what it's set at though. Well- I didn't actually see what the number was...
17:17
the other one I'm gonna ask you, 'cause, and I don't, I don't, I, I, I know I just said 10 minutes ago I, I'm sick of this ACC conversation already, uh, this season, but, um- You're welcome...
17:25
[laughs] but, but the, the... We talked about it yesterday. Even you thought Miami was a little too short being odds-on favorites. I mean, this, the, the expansion- I just have PTSD, man... Yeah.
17:35
And, and look, the, how many teams we have now? There are 16 teams in this league, right? I, it's...
17:41
I guess the next question is if we're looking, who are, who's, who's the t- next team to look at if you're actually talking about conference odds? SMU. SMU. SMU. S- SMU. Okay.
17:51
Kevin Jennings- 'Cause we do have a bunch jumbled here. Yeah. Kevin Jennings is back for year three. Now, now they have to, uh, pick up some pieces there.
17:56
They, they, they lost some guys, specifically at receiver, a little bit on the defense as well. But SMU has Kevin Jennings. They have Rhett Lashlee. He's a really good coach. They have plenty of resources.
18:07
That's a team I'd consider. Okay. I, I know a lot of people like Louisville. I, I'm not quite as high on Louisville because, um, I just, th- they're so reliant on the portal. Mm. And they do well i- in, in some years.
18:19
S- uh, some years not so much the last few. But I'm just not a, a, a believer in this team because there's not enough continuity. Clemson, it's shocking. I, I was ready to come in and be like, you know what?
18:30
Clemson's a team I wanna believe in because they have continuity. They don't have continuity. The, the thought is that they don't use the portal. They did use the portal this year.
18:38
But returning They return 53% of their production from a year ago, while SMU returned 62%. And Miami is actually at the bottom, 49%, but they're getting huge names in the portal. Right, right. Yeah, you know that.
18:50
Like, it's a little bit different. Yeah.
18:52
I, I did a lot of work on Clemson the last couple nights, and I, I, I went from thinking I was gonna be on their over to now I don't think I'm gonna touch it 'cause we'll do more on them in a little bit, but some questions at quarterback for them.
19:01
Okay. All right, let's hit the NFL real quick, as we got sidetracked once again. It's what we do. I have ADHD. Mm-hmm. It's been diagnosed. I am not medicated for it, as you can clearly see every time- Yeah...
19:09
I host a show here on VSiN. Uh, the NFL most and fewest wins market. Yeah. Kelly, I'm ready to get my heart broken.
19:15
I'm ready to do it because you look at this board right now, the Rams are the favorite a little bit under six to one. I would caution people. I bet the Ravens a year ago at the same exact number.
19:25
I thought the Ravens were the surest thing to have the most wins. It was the best team in football. They stunk, okay?
19:33
Now, I think the Rams do feel like a team that is gonna live up to it because the sense of urgency with Stafford at the end, the additions on defense, Aaron Donald potentially coming down.
19:42
But you can't bet that at plus 590. I've learned my lesson. Mm. I will no longer do that. Instead, the first team that jumped off to me that I know is going to let me down is the Cincinnati Bengals at 16 to 1.
19:53
There you go. Third easiest schedule. That they could potentially go 4 and 0 between their match-ups with Cleveland and the Steelers this year. They also face the NFC South, Miami, Tennessee, and Washington this year.
20:08
I just think Cincinnati's improved on defense. They're legitimate on defense. I don't know if they're great, but they're, they're gonna be an average defense.
20:17
And when you have the offense of Joe Burrow and company, with the way Chase Brown emerged last year with the run game, they're gonna score on everyone. [sighs] It's 16 to 1. It's the Cincinnati Bengals.
20:28
I think you always have to preface it with this could wind up being the worst bet I ever place, because Zac Taylor does not start fast.
20:36
I think they do start fast this year because they have to, and I just think they have so many give me- gimmies on the schedule. Mm-hmm. Yeah, I think they... Look, this is the first one that I wrote down with this...
20:46
And we've talked about this a couple times, but most wins.
20:48
I, I just think, I think that, think you could be talked into a bet very easily in this market because the NFC West and the NFC North are so tough that, yeah, like, they...
20:59
We're not talking about best overall teams here, right? Like, and I think Rams probably e- do enter the season rightfully so as a favorite.
21:05
No, but that's a good point because you have to keep in mind a bulk of these wins are coming in division. I want someone who's playing bad division teams. Yeah, exactly. Exactly.
21:13
And I, I even think AFC North a little bit you could make that, you could make that same caution for the Be- Bengals and the, uh, Ravens, but it's the rest of the schedules that e- ev- uh, ease up for that.
21:23
Both of those teams, you brought it up with the Bengals, third easiest for them, sixth easiest for the Ravens. Uh, ag- uh, based off of win totals for the teams that they are playing.
21:32
I think that- that's the biggest reason why the Ravens are the clear-cut number two in this market is just because of the ease of the schedule. So I... Look, it, for me, it's...
21:41
I think there's probably some value on the board. If you really like... I mean, I wrote down a few. If you really like the Bengals- Yep... that was one I wrote down. The Eagles, let's say.
21:50
The, the Eagles I definitely considered. They're... If you go look, they're e- they're an every other year team. And y- you're probably saying- Sure... "What does that mean?"
21:57
It means when they fail, they make adjustments. You could say whatever about Nick Sirianni. I call him a meathead philosopher. He understands football speak. Mm-hmm. And they, they've made some moves here.
22:07
The locker room's certainly gonna be a lot smoother with A.J. Brown gone. I don't know if they're better talent-wise, but the schedule's... How did they end up with, I believe, the ninth easiest schedule, or 10th?
22:16
I, I... And it's, it's, it's one of those where we're gonna t- we're gonna talk a little bit, maybe we're gonna get to the NFC East a little bit today. [laughs] Yeah.
22:21
I don't know if we're not [laughs] gonna get there or not. But w- I th- this is the division we maybe know the least about heading into the season.
22:29
I, I think all four teams have a case to make the playoffs in the NFC East, and I also think there's a case where it's like- All four of them- I think all, all four of them could disappoint this year. The all four...
22:38
Like, okay, all... I don't know if all four of them could technically have losing records- No-... but it feels like all four of them- Yes... could have losing records. No, no, it, it...
22:44
And, like, and I think Washington got better. I think the Giants got better on and off the field. I think the Cowboy... Like, Brian Schottenheimer was probably the most egg on my face I've had in a long time.
22:55
I thought he was an okay coach last year. But, okay. Okay. No, me too. But also guess what? They ran pure as hell when it came to health on the offensive side of the ball.
23:01
Well, and I'm not sure the defense is all that much better. Okay, so there's that, right? Like, i- oh, an injury to Dak Prescott and that team could immediately fall apart, right? Sure.
23:09
And we saw what the Commanders can do over the course of two years [laughs] from two years ago to what they were last year, right? An injury to Jayden Daniels, Dak could work at sending you.
23:17
And the Giants, I don't know if any of us really have any idea when it comes to the Giants.
23:21
So look, e- that's my point of v- if you like one of these teams in all these divisions, I think this could be a good market to add on them. I will probably doing, be doing it with the Buffalo Bills.
23:30
I know, big time shocker. Also, fewest wins real quick. I thought about the Browns, 10 to 1. I thought about the Steelers, 46 to 1. Second shot on the board, the Miami Dolphins. They're openly tanking.
23:41
They want a Manning. I mean, it's- They want Arch Manning. I, I, Dustin, I, I can't imagine I'll get there with this, but is this not... Like, I feel pretty comfortable if I bet both the Cardinals- That's-...
23:52
and the Dolphins. That's- I- a- you're obviously not getting a sexy, amazing price, but it's still plus money it would pay out in the end if one of those hit. Go, go ahead.
24:01
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24:23
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
24:38
[upbeat rock music]Back on Numbers Game, Dustin Swedelson, Kelly Bidlin, coming to you from the Circa Sports Book downtown Las Vegas.
24:48
Broadcasting as always, Sirius XM Channel 158, YouTube TV, the Visa Watch app, radio affiliates across the United States of God bless America. We get tweets. What do we got? That's not n- it's not normally your response.
25:01
I know. I mixed it up. Oh, it confused me. We get tweets. I like routine. Normally you go, "We get tweets," or immediately back at me. Well, well, you know, it's not usually the natural response.
25:09
I usually have to say that just because you screw it up with the- [laughs]... with the lead-in it is. Yeah, you know what? [laughs] I just got used for, used to you covering my mistakes here. All right. Couple things.
25:20
Steve The Proxy writes in, "Lindor looks glazed over in the field with the media. The Mets have to break it up. They're pathetic. They will do the same with Soto in five years if they still stink. Sigh. #LetsGoMets."
25:30
Yeah, look, you're not right. L- Lindor definitely looks lost. He looks like someone who's, who they took away his, like, greatest pride, which is being the leader of the organization.
25:38
And even he's making mistakes this year. He's been hurt, but even when he's played he hasn't been all that great.
25:43
Uh, we've got Gizzy writing in, "The Cosmos with Pele played in Giant Stadium, so bringing back the tradition." I don't know what that is in reference to.
25:51
That, that was me making the joke about the legendary, uh, field, soccer field that we're gonna play this World Cup final on. You know- The Meadowlands...
25:57
what, I'm not trying to put this energy out there, but what is the Meadowlands and what are they known for? Injuries. Injuries. Everybody who's played on it. Yeah. It's Messi in his final World Cup match. Oh, man.
26:07
He just did it. But here's the thing. Notice there have not been soft tissue injuries. Why all of our football stadiums have grass in them. Like, how do these owners not go- I know... "Let's make the change"?
26:20
It can't cost you that much more, more money to have grass on the field. Also- I'm sorry... I, I know it started with Arizona, a- and Las Vegas followed it up, but the, the retractable field is just- Duh...
26:29
everybody gets mad at me, and Gil gets mad at me 'cause I say every sport should be played indoors, and yeah, it's a little bit hyperbole, but i- a, a little bit not.
26:37
The whole, the, the whole idea of you get to play on grass inside, it's just the best. That's the best. Yeah. Dude, I don't, I don't even understand the argument for the turf.
26:45
Like, I g- we're gonna find out all sorts of things down the road, 20, 30 years from now, of how much that turf impacted these guys, their careers, their bones, the injuries that they had. I- it's gonna be brutal.
26:55
I don't, I don't know who this guy is. Naoyuki Kataoka. You think I did a good job of that? I think you nailed it. I think I did a good job of that. I've never...
27:02
That was an awesome celebration for him making a birdie on 18 to go from two over to one over, which is, uh, where I believe the cut line's at right now. Oh. That was a... The caddy's hands flew up in the background.
27:13
He gave a big fist bump. It's al- it's awesome to see with these guys. British Open, Royal Birkdale, 154th edition. And Kelly, right now- It's here at Old Hampton...
27:22
we, we still have Lucas Herbert- Lining up the birdie putt... atop the leaderboard. Yes, we do. Eight under par. He's in the clubhouse. Cameron Young, Jackson Suber right behind him, two shots off at six under par.
27:33
My guy, our guy, Matt Brown's on him as well. Sam Burns, five under par after his eight under, 62 as well today. Matt Wallace, I'm just gonna bring up a couple of these names that are four under par- Yeah...
27:46
that are dangerous. I, I am saying not the biggest names out there, Dustin, but they are dangerous. Just like a Jackson Suber is, I would say. Matt Wallace, four under par, rated out very highly for me this week.
27:56
Bud Cauley, I wrote about yesterday at vsin.com. Dead wrong if you followed a match-up on him today. Not a traditionally great putter. Awesome ball striker, though. He's dealt with some injuries throughout his career.
28:08
We've seen Bud Cauley win this year, which was awesome to see. He's two, he's four under, four shots back of Lucas Herbert.
28:15
And then Alex Fitzpatrick, the other Fitzpatrick, who has been awesome since coming over to the PGA Tour. Watch out for all those guys. Alex Smally, I'd include in that. Ryan Gerard, I'd include in that.
28:26
These are all very talented golfers that I know most people are probably not that familiar with. And then of course, Scottie Scheffler, who just moves to three under par. Yeah, he just hit a birdie.
28:35
S- some, some names I wanna throw your way, just from their performance in round number two. Ludvig Åberg with a four under today. Yeah, he's- He's now three under for the tournament...
28:43
T-14, right where our Ludvig Åberg belongs. Yep. Uh, he's someone, uh, Matt, uh, Matt Humans told me I'm not allowed to bet anymore. [laughs] He said, "Don't do it." On- only top 20s. Or first round. Or first round, yes.
28:54
And then- I'm, I'm not happy with J.J. Spaun finally showing up for a tournament after, like, seven consecutive weeks of me betting him. Yeah. Patrick Reed four under today. Patrick Reed, big round.
29:03
I know there's a lot of people that bet him. So yeah, he goes from basically right on that cut line to easily inside of it, two under par. Yeah, sure, Patrick Reed, I can't argue.
29:12
And then Scottie after the birdie just now. He is currently in the betting market. Still the favorite atop the leaderboard, and he is down to four to one.
29:20
Yeah, hate what, uh, hate what I saw Morikawa do, double bogey on 18, I believe. He went to four u- from four under to two under, so that's where he's at right now. All right.
29:30
The, the one I, uh, one I wrote about yesterday, just bring him up again. I'm trying to pull up some of the putting stats from his round today. But Godderup was one... Godderup's been one of the,
29:39
uh, you know, a- Awesome season... people, I gotta tell you, you, you guys, you golf guys- Yeah... you f- you guys get fixated on one or two golfers and make the case for them every week. Mm.
29:49
And I think everyone has been making the case for Godderup for so many weeks that it's just, like, I know he won recently- Mm-hmm...
29:54
but I'm never gonna bet him 'cause I'm always terrified that he just, he's become too chalky. Yeah, that, I, well, I think that was, that would be a fair statement heading into this event, for sure.
30:03
Where he was being priced at, he was being- Yeah... priced at with some very class golf. The dude's, the dude's won four times in the past year. I know. I know, but it's just, like, you got, you...
30:13
I'm trying to think of a name- I mean, there's a-... from last year... there's a lot of, there's a lot of what we talk about, uh, win equity, right?
30:19
And we had this conversat- how many of these guys, 'cause it's 156 guys teeing it up. Can win. Only one guy can win.
30:25
And how many times on Sundays do you see someone struggle, uh, crap the bed, whatever, use whatever words you wanna use. Lucas Herbert even couldn't finish his 61 off here today. It's Tommy Fleetwood.
30:36
We're having this conversation, Tommy Fleetwood playing at his home course. Uh, the odds are way too short. This guy doesn't win golf tournaments. He doesn't win golf tournaments.
30:44
He- he- Chris Gotterup's won five times since the guy won a golf tournament last. Like, this is- That's crazy...
30:49
like, i- so when you talk about win equity, sure, there's some guys like a Gotterup who you are right, could become overvalued, uh, who could easily not make a cut because they have a bad round, right? And that happens.
31:02
But I also have the confidence with where that guy's game's at that he can go out there on a Sunday and win, and win against anybody.
31:08
And maybe that's me being, that's me being a little too bold to say he can win against anybody. 'Cause the counter to that would be he's wi- he's won at easier tournaments, and that's fine.
31:19
But the point with him was he was a top five guy yesterday tee to green. The putting stats were way down. He's one of the more consistent better putters on the PGA tour.
31:27
So you believe that comes back into form the rest of the way? Yeah. Uh, usually that's, it's like three-point shooting. We talk about that all the time, right?
31:32
If teams go 20, 20% through the first quarter and a half, more than likely they're gonna finish at 20% or a little bit better than that.
31:38
Where do you come down in this camp of referring to that as positive regression or, you know, improving? The, i- it's- it's regression and there is positive regression. Positive regression's a thing.
31:49
It's called improving. No, it's not. It's just, you know, we'll have Steve Fezzik sci- solve this. Oh. How about this? Oh, I- I'm sure there's- That is a statistical question for Steve Fezzik coming up...
31:58
if you thought that your significant other can make a honey-do list for you, I am sure there is a list from Steve Fezzik of things I've said on this show in the last week that has triggered him that he wants to come in.
32:08
Pro handicapper Steve Fezzik- Yeah... will be on the program in about, little bit under one hour here as we just updated the Open Championship. Let's run through three up, three down here.
32:17
Just looking at the pitchers to start the All-Star, the post second half after the All-Star break. Who's hot, who's not coming into these match-ups? We begin with the first game on the board.
32:26
This one actually gets started in just a couple hours, 1:35 PM Eastern Time. The Rays at the Red Sox. The hottest pitcher in this match-up is one Jake Bennett, 25-year-old lefty for the Boston Red Sox.
32:39
A 139 ERA over his last five starts. 27 punch-outs, 32 and a third innings, and a.68 whip. He's minus 112. Tampa Bay I bet +110 last night. We talked about it at +105. They're now -107. I think that's worth noting here.
32:55
Hmm. I wanna say Boston was in the -120 something range, 124-ish earlier. Yeah, pull it up. I do like Tampa in this spot. I'm not saying Jake Bennett doesn't continue to be a good pitcher.
33:05
I just don't think this run that he's on is gonna stay this way. He's not that elite with the stuff, I don't think. 112 over at DraftKings is Boston. Okay.
33:15
Yeah, I, I still, I still like Tampa, but obviously I prefer not to lay the, the 107 when we got plus money just about an hour, hour and a half ago on the program.
33:23
Later on today, the Tigers and Troy Melton on the hill there at the Anaheim Angel, or a- the Los Angeles Angels. [laughs] Somehow, you know- Oh, man...
33:35
th- this is one where this one was pretty close to pick 'em last night. Troy Melton's been awesome, man. 27, uh, 23 and two-thirds innings. A.76 ERA for him over his last four. A.59 whip. He's getting the strikeouts now.
33:48
And more importantly, Detmers on the other side's been terrible, which we'll get to in just a minute. I love the Tigers, even at -115. I trust their offense. I trust their pitcher.
33:56
Everything says they're the right side here. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but I'll feel good about going down swinging with Melton today as a favorite.
34:03
And the last- -109 at Circa behind us, -107 at Station's the best price I'm seeing. And the last three up, we're gonna highlight Bryce Miller.
34:11
Not off to the best start of the year for him, but in limited time he looks like he's back to fine form. Last year dealt with injuries, but the year prior you saw what he could be.
34:20
And right now he's a $2 favorite against the Giants, and Landon Rupp is +163. Total seven. But at home this year, four starts for Bryce Miller, a.40 ERA. That was my GPA my freshman year of college. Uh, four starts. Wow.
34:33
22 and two-thirds innings, 28 strikeouts, a paltry.314 whip for Bryce Miller. That's why I like the under in that game. Three down. I mentioned, uh, Reid Detmers before. He stinks, that's why we're backing Melton.
34:45
Seth Lugo, last five starts for Kansas City. I don't know what to do with them in San Diego. It's Michael King versus Lugo. Total's 10 and a half. I'd love to bet the over, but I hate both offenses.
34:54
Logo is S- Lugo a 675 ERA over his last five. And then finally, Gerrit Cole, a 533 ERA for the Yankees against the Dodgers today. Over his last five he has not been very good.
35:04
So that's where we stand as far as Major League Baseball is concerned.
35:08
Plenty more coming this hour, including Steve Fezzik dropping by in studio for him to yell at me about stuff that he doesn't like that I've said throughout the day on the program. But when we return, ACC media days.
35:19
What do we make of that leaderboard with Miami as the favorite coming in at -135?
35:25
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
35:43
Dustin Swidelson coming at you on our numbers game alongside Kelly Bidlin. We got you covered for, eh, another hour and 15 minutes on VSiN, the sports betting network. A lot going on in sports.
35:53
People tell you it's a slow time of year. It's not true. We have the British Open currently in progress. A Herbert atop the leaderboard. Should we recycle our joke?
36:00
[laughs] If he's related to Justin, it's not gonna go well in the fourth quarter. Or the playoffs. Boom. He can't make a playoff. We'll be here for another hour and 15 minutes. Not all week here, people.
36:08
[laughs] Uh, but that's where we stand as far as that is concerned. Major League Baseball, 28 teams begin their second half later on tonight. And ACC media day is going on in North Carolina.
36:19
A man who was there at the ACC media days joins us now on the program. He is Alex Donno, host of Locked On Canes podcast, Locked On ACC as well.
36:29
And we gotta get a lay of the land of what the vibes were, 'cause it's vibe season very much around here- Yeah... as we start building up these portfolios. Alex, thanks for doing this, man.
36:38
Appreciate the time, as always. And as we can see in the background of the shot, he is a Miami Hurricanes fan. He does the Miami podcast. So that is a great place to start So full disclosure, also a Miami fan.
36:47
My first bet of the college football season was Darian Mensah 16 to 1 for Heisman, because we've seen how this team has used transfer quarterbacks, got them acclimated quickly, and they've emerged better players leaving the program than before.
37:00
But you still have to mention there were plenty of losses on Miami, both sides of the ball, specifically the line of scrimmage. They are the favorite to win the ACC at minus 136.
37:10
How do you feel about them coming off a national runner-up campaign a year ago?
37:15
Well, I'll start with the line of scrimmage, 'cause when I, I had a one-on-one with Mario Cristobal, that was one of the first things that I asked him about, because the offensive line is his baby, as you guys know.
37:24
And, you know, he seems to be a- about as bullish as you can be about a unit that's replacing four starters that they lost to the NFL this past year.
37:33
He compared this 2026 offensive line to me as to what they had in 2023. That was when they broke in Francis Maunawa as a first-year starter who would go on to be a first-round draft pick a few years later.
37:47
Uh, that's when, you know, Inez Cooper became a full-time starter on the offensive line for the first time. And so I think he sees comparable pieces for 2026.
37:57
The direct comparison would be, uh, a true freshman, former five-star recruit in Jackson Cantwell, uh, looks like he's in line to probably be the year one starting left tackle, which I guess, depending on which way you look at, is a little bit scary to think a true freshman protecting your quarterback's blind side.
38:13
But Cantwell was the number one recruit in the country in that class. And he's, he's built different, and from what I saw from him in spring, he looks ready to step into that role.
38:22
So, I think the message to me on that from Mario Cristobal was they trust their offensive line recruiting, 'cause most of the guys that are stepping into starting roles are former five-star and four-star recruits, and they trust the development, uh, that comes with, uh, offensive line coach Alex Mirabal as well.
38:38
Uh, i- in terms of the rest of the team, you know, the defensive line i- is loaded wi- with talent, even after losing Bain and Mesidor.
38:45
Damon Wilson II comes over from Mizzou after 54 pressures and nine sacks in the SEC last season.
38:52
Uh, and I, I don't think there's any argument that this is probably the best collection of skill position talent Miami has had in I don't know how long, certainly the best of the Mario Cristobal era.
39:03
When you combine a Darian Mensah with Malachi Tony, he brings Cooper Barkate, his top receiver from Duke, with him. You've got Mark Fletcher in a deep running back room.
39:12
Miami has a lot of perimeter talent on the defensive side as well, with both of your cover cornerbacks, uh, being back from last year with Frederique and Xavier Lucas.
39:21
So, you know, it's definitely understandable why, you know, Miami is the odds-on favorite to win the ACC, 'cause I, I don't know if anyone else within the ACC really made that clear of a step forward, while Miami seems like they've done a, a good job replacing a lot of the pieces that they lost from last year.
39:38
Yeah, love that, Alex. Yeah, great breakdown. It's just, it, it's wild to see this ma- this many teams in a conference in preseason Miami be a minus 136 favorite.
39:47
Do want to kind of talk about that, I guess that next group, kind of next step down. It's SMU seven to one, Louisville eight to one.
39:53
Then we get into ki- kind of that next group, Clemson fo- Clemson, Virginia, Pittsburgh, NC State, Virginia Tech, all 14 to 28 to 1.
40:03
Uh, who, or who do you see out of that group, uh, of teams maybe, maybe me- maybe not winning this conference, but making a significant leap forward and maybe a little bit better than what their odds would indicate?
40:15
Yeah, I, I would... Uh, I, I'm always, I'm always cautious to, to proclaim this about anyone in the ACC, 'cause this conference is, it's the weirdest conference- Mm-hmm... in, in major college football.
40:26
But I, NC State is one of the first ones that I look at. NC State and Pittsburgh, uh, because both, I feel really good about their quarterback situations.
40:36
Like in the case, uh, of NC State, you know, CJ Bailey, he's, he's a made man now, right? Mm-hmm. He's had, you know, multiple what, heading into his, uh, what, third year now as their starting quarterback.
40:47
He's proven it with all the playing time he's gotten there. Uh, and then, you know, Mason Heinschel of Pittsburgh heading into his second year had an unbelievable true freshman season last year.
40:57
Uh, so I, I would look at Pittsburgh and NC State as those teams at 17 to 1 and 22 to 1 I'd probably see the most value in. Uh, in terms of the teams right above them, uh, the big mystery for me is Clemson. Mm-hmm.
41:10
Because if I'm just looking at the talent levels in a vacuum, I would feel the Clemson Tigers are the second overall most talented team in the conference behind Miami.
41:21
But I have so many questions about their quarterback situation with Chris Vezina taking over.
41:26
You know, Dabo Sweeney made the very conscious decision not to try to get a transfer quarterback and to go with what he, what he had in the room, and I don't know if I have a whole lot of faith in what they have [laughs] in that room, you know, after Cade Clubnik, who himself was a Jekyll and Hyde quarterback but had some great moments.
41:42
I don't know how much faith I have in Vezina. So, you know, I, I kind of, I look at the ACC kind of the same way the oddsmakers look. I've got Miami at the top.
41:50
I do have SMU with Kevin Jennings and a really good offensive line second, and Louisville probably third. I hear a lot of good stuff about Lincoln Keenholz taking over as their starting quarterback.
42:02
So I, I, I see it mostly the same way the oddsmakers do, but it wouldn't surprise me if Clemson is the second-best team in the conference, but it also wouldn't surprise me if they're eight or nine. Hmm.
42:12
Just 'cause the quarterback is gonna decide so much for them. Yeah, it's crazy with Clemson, just how different things look when the landscape has shifted on them. He is Alex Donno. He's our guest.
42:21
ACC, Locked On ACC is the podcast. Locked On Canes covering the Miami Hurricanes. And, uh, a big talking point for this league going forward is where does Virginia Tech fall in?
42:31
Because under Brent Pry, things did not go well. Brent Pry is still on staff in Blacksburg. He is the defensive coordinator. Talk about unprecedented times, unlike anything we've ever seen.
42:40
I mean, that, that's even unique to Dave Campo with the Cowboys coming back and Vance Joseph returning to the Broncos. But James Franklin takes over. They've invested.
42:48
He has brought a quarterback with him in Ethan Grunkameier. Plenty of Penn State transfers coming over to Virginia Tech as well. 28 to 1 to win the league.
42:56
He thinks that they have more resources than he had in Happy Valley. What do you make of Virginia Tech and the Hokies in year one of Franklin?
43:04
Yeah, like I, I really, and I wanna make this very clear, I think James Franklin is going to... And, and not just Franklin, but also what Virginia Tech is investing again in their football program,
43:16
I think they're a couple few years away from, you know, becoming an ACC powerhouse. I guess I'll say it that way.
43:23
I, I'm just really not sure if they're gonna hit the ground running year one the way that some people think they will.
43:29
I mean, I guess kind of bringing the band with him, a lot of his former Penn State guys, but a lot of former Penn State backups.
43:35
I mean, Gru- Grunkemeyer, uh, he's gotten some playing time, but he hasn't been a starter to this point.
43:40
Like, I think Virginia Tech, and they're investing like they've never invested before, 'cause when they were winning under Frank Beamer, that was a completely different era of college football.
43:48
Like, I think they are going to be, within a couple of years, one of the top teams in the ACC consistently. I'm just not so sure if that transformation is going to be immediate.
43:58
So I kind of feel like where they are in that 28 to one territory, kind of the upper end of the middle of the pack, that is where I see Virginia Tech.
44:07
But I think if we have this conversation again a year from now, uh, I think they'll probably be more in the top four than where I have them right now.
44:14
And then last one here, Alex, in about a minute and 90 seconds or so, SMU's second shot on the board, seven to one.
44:20
As a Miami fan, they scare me, not just because the way the game was last year, but Kevin Jennings, the continuity, back to the Rhett Lashlee system for a third year. They return enough on both sides of the ball.
44:31
They have to plug a few spots. But SMU is a team that, that I think plays a little bit different than the rest of the league. Yeah.
44:39
And, and I think, um, whether the ACC did this on purpose or not, and they would of course say that they didn't, the fact that SMU and Miami do not play each other in the regular season this year, it really does kind of pave that runway for a probable Miami versus SMU ACC Championship game matchup.
44:59
Um, you know, I think S- SMU with Kevin Jennings, and what a great story, 'cause this was not a heralded guy coming out of high school, right?
45:06
And, and he, two years ago, you know, he beat out a quarterback he wasn't supposed to beat out to become their starter.
45:12
Now he's heading into their third, his third season as Rhett Lashlee's starter, who's great with quarterbacks. They've got, you know, if not Miami, SMU may have the best offensive line in the ACC. Yep.
45:22
So, uh, I could definitely see SMU, and of course, if Miami sees them in the ACC Championship game, we all remember what happened last year in Dallas.
45:29
So it's definitely, to me, the team to watch out for, and it, it aligns perfectly that we would not get Miami versus SMU until the ACC title game if they both can get there. Alex, that was awesome, man. Rest up.
45:41
Eat your Wheaties. Get ready. The big, big stretch of season is just around the corner. He's Alex Donno. On X, @AlexDonno. Host of the Locked On Canes, Locked On ACC podcast. Appreciate the time, man.
45:53
I appreciate you guys. Thank you so much. Thanks, Alex. Have a great rest of your show. The Circus Survivor documentary, it is back. It is better than ever. This one is awesome.
46:00
Seven all-new episodes kick off every Wednesday starting July 22nd at 9:00 PM Eastern. You'll find about the growth of the biggest sports contest in the world, plus how the Grandissimo came to be.
46:12
Check out every Wednesday starting next week at 9:00 PM Eastern right here on VSiN. It's the sports betting network.
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