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Jul 17, 2026
A Numbers Game | July 17, 2026 | Hour 3
A Numbers Game | July 17, 2026 | Hour 3
00:00
48:46
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Transcript
0:00
Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more. That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
0:08
Make a smart buy on the off-road-ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest-lasting trucks.
0:16
Built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
0:22
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
0:29
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
0:38
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you can trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
0:47
From a great deal today to a great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places.
1:00
We have the tech to get food delivered in 15 minutes, but we all have horror stories about buying tickets. The Gametime app gives fans the advantage. Get amazing tickets in just a few taps.
1:11
Fees are included, so what you see is what you pay. And the Gametime guarantee means authentic tickets at the best price every time.
1:19
Take the guesswork out of buying tickets to concerts, sports, comedy, and more with Gametime. Download the Gametime app and create an account for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply.
1:29
[upbeat music] This is VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] [static] The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics.
1:44
This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. [upbeat music] Welcome to Friday. What up? What up? What up? July 17th, May the July 17th be with you. I'm Dustin Swedelson. That's Kelly Bidlin.
1:56
Do you do that just for me? Injecting a little bit of energy. No, I... That- that's my new shtick. Oh, okay.
1:59
My new shtick is I, I'm starting every show with it, but I do like to reuse it later on j- 'cause it became a bit a few years ago- Oh, it's my favorite Dustin Twitter thing...
2:07
because- That's why I didn't know if you did it just for me... so everyone did, like, May the 5th be with you, and I was like, "Okay, here's what I'm gonna do. It's gonna become May the 6th, May the 7th, May the 8th."
2:16
And at- Yeah, it's real obnoxious, but it's funny... at one point, I think I got into, like, late July, maybe even early August, and people were like, "Yo, if you don't stop this, I'm reporting you to Twitter."
2:24
[laughs] And I was like, "What are they gonna do, tell me to stop being hilarious?" Oh. @dustinswedelson, by the way, @kellybidlin, @vsinlive. You can follow us. Kelly and I both, uh, a little out of breath.
2:33
Well, me more so, 'cause I, I, I have not lost the weight that Kelly has lost in the last year. But, uh- Di- is, is Danny mad at us? Did you... I, is Danny mad at you? Ooh. I detected a tone with Danny to you- Ooh...
2:43
when we were sitting down. I, I'm behind on the reads. I don't... Usually, I'm the one in trouble, so I'm very, I'm very happy to, I, it sounded more just like you than me.
2:50
Well, for those that wanna know what happened is we, we both ran out of the studio at the same time to use the restroom because this is what happens.
2:57
It happens to women, but when you spend too much time around someone, eventually your cycles sync. There we go. Yeah. And our pee cycles have synced now.
3:05
We're, we're, like, on the same schedule of having to use the restroom. So that, that's all that occurred. We, we didn't get to chat with Paul during the break. I know. He's waiting for us.
3:12
He's like- Been hanging out patiently... he's like, "I'm used to Gil reading 30 tweets before I come on, not you guys talking about using a urinal." [laughs] So with that, let's get to Paul Carr- Oh, man...
3:19
breaking down everything going on in the World Cup, doing a tremendous job here on A Numbers Game. Check out True Media Sports. Also, Expected Value is the podcast. @paulcarr, you can find him on X.
3:30
Sorry for all that, Paul. That was, uh, not worth waiting for. But what is worth waiting for is what we have this weekend. And call me crazy, to steal a bit from Stormy and JVT. Hmm.
3:40
I am more excited to see what England looks like against France [laughs] in this third-place game. [laughs] I, I... There's something, like, so un-American about even playing this game, however it exists.
3:51
France is minus 215. England's plus 170. Thomas Tuchel probably on borrowed time there as the manager of the English. How do you feel about what we're gonna see? I have no idea. [laughs] I mean, third-place match...
4:04
I mean, what I expect, Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappé will both play because they're both in the Golden Boot race. So I would expect them to do that. I think this will be an open game.
4:15
You know, third-place games tend to be. 11 of the last 12 have had at least three goals, and half the last 12 have had at least four goals. So if you wanna play over three and a half at plus money, um, I don't mind that.
4:26
I may end up sprinkling a little on there. But I don't know. I don't know what the r- roster, the lineups are gonna look like. Like, we may see- Yeah...
4:33
you know, 20 guys who have barely played in this tournament starting this match. Uh, so there's just... It's a weird game, even more so with these teams.
4:42
Sometimes you'll get a team, uh, maybe Croatia or Morocco four years ago- Mm... were like, "Hey, getting to semis was just a massive thing." So they're maybe a little more excited to be in the third-place game.
4:52
Uh, but both these teams expected to be in the final and expected to win this tournament, so this is definitely a letdown of sorts for them.
4:59
So if anything, I would play the over, but without knowing who's gonna play and what these lineups are gonna look like, I'm not going near this game at all.
5:08
Okay, yeah, and we talked a little bit about this with Chris Falica earlier in the show, Paul, and I, I really think me and Dustin are probably more fascinated by this than, uh, than, than maybe even the final.
5:16
But the, just the list of don'ts, I think the don'ts from a betting standpoint leading into this game.
5:23
A- and Chris said, "I, look, I don't even think you can really consider, uh, Kylian Mbappé for Golden Boot until you know for sure if he's playing or not." Mm-hmm, mm-hmm. So I think I would add that onto the list.
5:34
Uh, and, and then this is... He, he brought up, I thought this was a great point, of the we can play the to win to advance to lift whatever third-place trophy market or the, or the three-way 90-minute market.
5:45
Chris thought you should absolutely look in that, uh, as opposed to... 'Cause this is not going to extra time. Is that something you would say, too? Right, yes. Yeah, I would not wanna play.
5:55
Like, the draw price at 285 looks nice. Right. Like, that's, that's appealing. But- No way First of all, the fact that they play extra time in this match is ridiculous.
6:03
Like, just go straight to penalties and end this thing. But yeah, I don't think either team's gonna want to go to extra time.
6:08
So I would expect, again, who knows, but I would expect if this is tied in, like, the 80th minute, I would expect and hope that these teams are making some, you know, kind of silly-looking subs just to try to get a goal.
6:18
Like, sub on a forward or two just to get it over with one way or the other, 'cause I don't think they care that much. But again, we're, we're... It's all just guesswork at this point. Yeah.
6:27
Yeah, Paul Carr is our guest, True Media Sports, sock handy- soccer handicapper, Expected Value podcast @paulcarrnext. I mean, we haven't talked...
6:35
We probably should've started this way, but we haven't talked about what happened with England [laughs] and the meltdown against- Right... Argentina. Paul, you watch- Well... a lot of soccer.
6:42
Let, let, let's do both sides of it here. Argentina- Right... the comeback kids, it continues now they're in the championship.
6:48
But, but England, the style at which they went about it once they had a one-nil lead, just not being involved offensively. I think I saw 12% of the possession once they went- Mm-hmm... up one-nothing.
7:00
Like, how do you even defend that if you're the English? It's really weird. I mean, it's basically what they were criticized for under Gareth Southgate, their previous manager, the last, uh, few tournaments.
7:10
You know, they went up real early on Italy in a Euro final and, like, tried to park the bus for 85 minutes. Obviously, that didn't work out well.
7:17
Uh, but then in the first game against Croatia of this tournament, they were up three-two in the second half, and they went for it.
7:24
You know, they did not park the bus, and it was ki- almost this revelation, like, "Oh, if England's gonna do this," given all the talent they have, 'cause they're one of the, I don't know, three, four most talented teams at the tournament.
7:35
And if they're gonna go for it when they have the lead, like, that just changes the upside of this team. And then they get to this Argentina match, and they don't do that.
7:45
And this, again, they didn't go up one-nil in the 80th minute. You wanna park the bus then, fine. But they went up one-nil in the 55th minute, and just became not interested in playing.
7:54
So I don't know if this was a residual effect from the Azteca game against Mexico. You know, there they bunkered in for a while, but they were down a man, and they were at Azteca. That's a totally different situation.
8:04
Mm-hmm. And you're playing Mexico, uh, which does not have the creative playmakers that Argentina has. So that was a very different situation.
8:10
And, you know, I kinda understood, you know, putting on some defenders, 'cause you're gonna face crosses and such, but at the same time, you know, why wasn't Bukayo Saka in to be an outlet on the wing?
8:20
You know, maybe he's dealing with injuries, but something in that vein just to relieve pressure for a few minutes here and there is what England needed, and it d- wasn't something that they seemed either interested in doing or maybe was capable of doing.
8:31
Yeah, and this is... Uh, Paul, spin this forward with, with Argentina, 'cause I feel like we've seen this type of team in other American sports, uh, before, but this is...
8:41
W- we've gotten to the point in the tournament where I feel like I keep hearing this about Argentina. It...
8:45
Team of destiny, or they just keep getting a little lucky and getting by each one of these opponents and are a little overrated? I, I, I don't know which is true. They're in the final. I...
8:55
W- what do you feel about this team and how they've gotten to this point? Yeah, I think they're kind of both true. They remind me of, like, the Chiefs from two, three years ago. Mm.
9:04
Um, and then the question is, are they going to... You know, they're in the final. They're in the Super Bowl. Is it gonna be one of those where they, you know, battle it out and pull out a win against the 49ers?
9:13
Or, you know, I think there's a chance it's, you know, the Chiefs ran to the Eagles a couple years ago and just got smoked. Mm. There's a chance of that.
9:21
Uh, but they, they clearly have all the intangibles, which as a numbers guy is a little difficult for me to digest, but they have the grit, they have the belief, they have the team spirit, all these things.
9:30
I mean, I was at their quarterfinal against Switzerland, and the fan support in Kansas City was, like, 98% Argentines. Wow. It was crazy.
9:37
Uh, I don't think it'll be that dramatic in New Jersey for the final, but it's gonna be a pro-Argentina crowd. So that's something. Um, so, so I don't know.
9:44
I, I, I struggle to on paper just think like, "Look, Spain is significantly better, and they're a favorite for a reason," but Argentina, uh, they've won three straight tournaments, international tournaments, major tournaments, uh, and on the verge of a fourth, which no one's ever done before.
9:58
So it's, you can't discount whatever it is that they have. No one's gone back-to-back since Brazil 1962, winning back-to-back- Mm-hmm... World Cups. And I'm gonna go cross-sport on you again, Paul- Okay...
10:07
just with the, the comparison. Both teams, I think could be, be compared to the Knicks and their run. Okay. Argentina never out of it, all these comebacks, waiting for the best shot- Right...
10:18
uh, best shot of a team and then answering a- and winning in the end. And then Spain, it's the best team. They play together as a unit. You can see the chemistry. You see the cohesion.
10:27
They're not the most athletic team in the field this year, but for some reason, the way they work together, the way they take advantage of counters, like, they, they both remind me of the Knicks in their own way.
10:38
How do you think these two styles match up with each other?
10:41
Yeah, I mean, I think the thing about Spain is if they get a one-goal lead, they're not going to pull an England and just decide to bunker in for the rest of the game.
10:50
I mean, obviously, it's different if it's the last few minutes. That's a different thing. But, and I think they'll continue to press. That's what they do.
10:55
They press out of the midfield especially and don't give you a whole lot of opportunities. They've allowed, like, 2.1 expected goals this entire tournament, which is crazy over seven games.
11:04
Uh, the shot quality they allow is low. Just any metric. I mean, they've only allowed one goal, if you wanna just make it super simple. [laughs] One goal in the whole tournament, uh, which is impressive.
11:13
Uh, so Argentina's got to figure out a way to break that down. Um, I don't know if they can.
11:19
Again, they've always seemed to find a way, but Spain, I think, is just better equipped to deal with that, 'cause they won't have to change as much as what, of what they do if they get a one-goal lead.
11:26
Okay, I like it, Paul. Rolling in with three bets for you for the World Cup final. Uh, Paul, talk us through all these. All right. We'll start first half.
11:36
I think this first half could look a lot like the Argentina-England first half, which had no shots in the first 30 minutes. First World Cup game on record to do that.
11:44
Um, so this could be real cagey, look like a final, et cetera. Uh, wouldn't shock me if there were no goals in the first half. So I've played that at plus 155.
11:52
Uh, you know, Spain's last four first half, two scoreless, one only had a penalty.
11:56
Uh, none of Argentina's four knockout stage first halves had more than one goal or about one XG, and they all had, I think, eight or fewer shots. So I think this will feel like a final.
12:05
You know, England-Argentina, that first half hour especially, no shots, but it was still pretty entertaining. They were just battling it out in the midfield. Um, so that's my first bet.
12:13
Uh, and this is a little bit contrary maybe, but I still like both teams to score, uh, minus 105.
12:18
I mean- Spain has found a way to score in every game but the Cape Verde game when they outshot them 27 to six in the opener, and Argentina has scored twice in every game.
12:27
And obviously we've talked about their belief and such. So I like both teams to score around even money. But ultimately, I just like Spain to win. This is a 90-minute bet at plus 130. Uh, they're the better team.
12:39
They're good defensively. They're better defensively. They're as good offensively.
12:43
Maybe I'm banging my head against the wall a little bit by betting against Argentina, because they have Messi and the devil magic and whatever else is going on there. [laughs] Devil magic.
12:49
But I think, I think [laughs] like Real Madrid in Champions League, you don't wanna bet against them, but here I am again. Uh, so just Spain to win at plus 130 in 90 minutes. All right, that was awesome.
12:58
Paul, you've been crushing it. Yes. I know you do soccer all year long on the program, but World Cup, it's your time to shine. You've been killing it. Thanks for doing this as always, man. It's been fun.
13:06
I'm gonna go take a nap for two weeks after this. [laughs] Yeah, you should. Paul Carr, True Media Sports Expected Value podcast, @PaulCarr you can find him on X.
13:14
We've got Steve Fezzik, pro handicapper, coming up in about 20 minutes here on the show. With that, we gotta run through our bets for the day, including a baseball game that gets going in the next hour.
13:23
That's next on A Numbers Game. [upbeat rock music] You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real, mindset alone doesn't get bets home.
13:36
Pros win because they've got the tools, the data, and the discipline, and now so can you. VSiN Pro gives you access to the same real-time insights the sharps use.
13:45
No secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with VSiN Pro. Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more.
14:01
That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
14:06
Make a smart buy on the off-road-ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest-lasting trucks.
14:13
Built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
14:19
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
14:25
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
14:35
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you can trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
14:42
From a great deal today to great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. ShopToyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places.
14:52
We have the tech to get food delivered in 15 minutes, but we all have horror stories about buying tickets. The GameTime app gives fans the advantage. Get amazing tickets in just a few taps.
15:03
Fees are included, so what you see is what you pay, and the GameTime guarantee means authentic tickets at the best price every time.
15:11
Take the guesswork out of buying tickets to concerts, sports, comedy, and more with GameTime. Download the GameTime app and create an account for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply.
15:21
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Dustin Swedelson alongside Kelly Bidlin.
15:38
It's a Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. We get tweets @VSiNLive, @DustinSwedelson, @KellyBidlin. Bob Geddes writes in. How about Bob dedicating- Hey.
15:49
"I just walked into a store in Spain and they were playing doo-wop. Now I think of you and the Numbers game. The bearded brothers shenanigans are top tier." Uh, Bob, we love you. We love how much you listen.
16:00
Can you please enjoy your vacation time in Spain though, please? Yeah, can you step away for a minute? [laughs] From, from the, from, from this time of year, like- You-...
16:09
probably, like, better to be enjoying Europe than these two morons.
16:13
I know, I know we're gonna have to watch it here in a couple minutes, but, uh, he was texting me yesterday about the hoof moment on the show- Oh, we got that... that I could not get over.
16:22
Uh, real quick, uh, before, before we get into wackiness, I do have to thank, uh, a few people, uh, for the past, what, month, six weeks, Danny? I don't even know how long we've been talking World Cup at this point.
16:33
But Chris Felica, Paul Carr multiple times a week, Drew Dincic on this show, Dallin Cuff on the show every single week through the World Cup. Every single one of them did an amazing job.
16:45
I tailed most of their futures, made out very well, was a profitable World Cup I was not expecting. Uh, so hopefully you guys enjoyed having them, seeing them wa- listening to them on the show.
16:55
I know I did, and a big thank you to those guys who took a lot of time out of their lives to join us. The most frustrating part of the World Cup to me was, one, or there's two, I guess.
17:04
One, I have to retire being a soccer expert now. I've been a soccer expert for the last four to six weeks. I know, right? We gained all this knowledge. Uh- Uh, it's like the end of March Madness.
17:12
I just learned who's on every team- [laughs]... and now we have to walk away. The second is I am up betting the World Cup, which makes me wonder, I know nothing about soccer and I'm winning.
17:22
How come the sports I know a lot about [laughs] I struggle to be above 500? It's a tough feeling. It's a tough feeling. Sports betting can be wacky sometimes, but, uh, you know what?
17:30
Everybody I've heard say something similar. It's the, it's o- it's okay. You know what the best thing is about this?
17:35
It's the timing, because now we're gonna end this thing and it's gonna be right towards the end of July. And I don't know about you, but I'm s- I'm counting my money now about for NFL futures- Exactly...
17:44
and contests and everything. So any, any boost to the bankroll, I will gladly take this time of year. All right, we also have some write-ins over on X @VSiNLive, @DustinSwedelson, @KellyBidlin.
17:55
ScrabbleStar, "Dustin, Dustin, I have to remind everyone that there is no such thing as positive regression." Sorry about the caps. I was yelling at my phone. "Regression is by definition negative.
18:05
You can regress less, but positive? No." We will ask the Fezzik who is right in this great debate coming up in, in just a minute. I, I really believe this is an English verse n- verse math thing. Oh.
18:15
Like, in, in math, there is positive regression, in statistics. I w- we'll ask Steve. I, I'm not gonna sit here. I'm not- Yeah, no, in English definitely doesn't- I'm not dying on this hill... it doesn't work.
18:23
Yeah, yeah, it's progression or regression. Yeah. I get that from an English standpoint. Yes. You can't negatively regress. That's a negative times a negative, which equals a positive.
18:32
Speaking of, uh, I did, uh, reveal way too much on yesterday's show Including that one of my guilty pleasure videos I watch are cows- Oh... getting their hooves shaved.
18:42
And shout out to the guy yelling at Kelly because trying to say that it was horses that I watch. I don't know how you think you know what I watch, but mine are definitely cow hooves.
18:50
This is not what a horse hoof looks like. So this is what happens. They go in, they have a cut, they have a hole in their hoof, they have to even things out. They just have to get it shaved down.
18:58
It's like going, going to getting a pedicure.
19:00
And they take this sharp device, they cut it down, they find the spot, they fix it for the cow who's suffering, and that's why your steak tastes the way that it does, 'cause this cow gets to live a little bit longer.
19:09
All right. Unfortunately, I've seen this enough now, I'm not as disgusted anymore. Look at that hole. We hit this point, it's really, really disgusting. Oh, yeah. So what... Are, wait, are they shaving off...
19:18
Like, this is bone or hoof? What is- No, it's like a nail. Okay, so it's like a nail. Fine. So they are cutting nail away to, to get underneath it where there is a lot of- An issue... dirt, scum, whatever I'm looking at.
19:30
No, that's, I think, I think that's either dirt or an infection 'cause it goes under the nail. R- okay. So- So I think they're fixing an infection or something... so they're gonna scrape- Some injury...
19:38
so they're gonna scrape this out, this- Clean it out... gross- They're gonna spray it. They're gonna disinfect it. This is so, it's so disgusting.
19:45
It's just like getting a pedicure at, or- It's very disgusting to watch... it, it's like an ingrown toenail where you gotta go get it cut out.
19:50
They put some medicine on it so it doesn't get infected and it doesn't grow back the same way. Yeah, but, like, I don't, like, I don't have to watch that. You know what I mean? I watch those videos, too. Yeah, I know.
19:59
This is- And I mean, I, I, I get pedicures myself. I, see, I get them, too. I don't have to, I don't, I don't necessarily look down at my feet. I don't have a foot fetish. I just wanna lay that on the line.
20:08
I've never sucked a toe in my life over here. Just want, wanna make sure. I've been admitting a lot on this show. Wow. That is not something I'm into. No, okay. All right. I've never put a foot in my mouth. Sure, sure.
20:16
I'll speak for the crew, sure. [laughs] Sure. We got it. I think this is a very normal video that people watch. I, I, maybe. Maybe. I, I, you know, there's a lot of stuff on the internet these days- [laughs]...
20:28
so who know, who knows what's normal anymore, okay? How about that? That's a valid point. Uh, what is on the internet are our best bets in major, or my best bets in Major League Baseball, vsin.com/picks.
20:38
If you wanna check them out, we do have some best bets from all the guests on the show.
20:42
Let's begin recapping, let's run through, like my girlfriend in college was, uh, all the bets that were placed on today's Numbers Game. Let's do that. Am I running these, uh, for you?
20:51
I like when you lead into the other people's bets. Oh, okay. So we're going soccer first then. We gotta go, we're going soccer first.
20:58
We'll go with Chris Felica, who's got a lot of bets today, uh, both on the horse track and at the World Cup. Starting with the World Cup, Spain to lift the cup minus 150.
21:07
So he's going to play, this is very important, lift the cup, and especially if you haven't been betting World Cup throughout the entirety of it.
21:14
Lift the cup, this is basically the to advance market that you've been betting, uh, through the groups st- or the knockout stages here. And then we had Paul in the 90-minute. We'll get to that later.
21:24
He's also on the under two and a half in this game at minus 115. And then I know we had some horse racing bets as well from Felica. Thank you, Danny. Uh, this is today the De La Rosa Handicap, uh, race nine at Saratoga.
21:42
The eight horse, awesome check, six to one. And then also today, Oceanside, race eight, uh, at Del Mar. This is the eight horse, Charlie's Curlin, six to one. And then the Haskell Stakes, race 12 at Monmouth tomorrow.
21:55
He is on the number four horse, The Puma, seven to two, who we remember from the Kentucky Derby. Is that where he was at? And then we never saw him again, Dan. I don't remember. Yeah, Kentucky Derby.
22:04
I remember my horse races. Uh, okay, over to Paul Carr. He's got a three-pack of bets for the World Cup fi- uh, final. Under a half first half goals at plus 155. I lo- I love that one.
22:14
I think I do, too, 'cause all the, even the Argentina magic that we've seen, it's been late, right? Yeah. I think I'm gonna bet that as well.
22:20
Both teams to score, yes, minus 105, and then Spain to win on the 90-minute line plus 130, as he even rightfully pointed out, 'cause I was thinking the same thing.
22:31
Uh, look, if you, if you have a shop where the same game parlays still reward some of these negative correl- correlated, uh, correlated plays, this is that, because, uh, both teams to score, yes, combined with an under half first, uh, first half goals, tha- that is not very correlated.
22:47
Can I bring up one thing I'm just realizing? Hmm. And I don't think this should be allowed. The World Cup final can be de- be decided on penalty kicks. Sure. I feel like they should have to play till their legs fall off.
22:57
Oh, you think this is like the, we gotta throw out that rule in the app, yeah. Yeah, like, like we just- Play it out... we play it out. Best team to eventually punch it through.
23:03
Maybe you change the substitution stuff late in the match once we get into, like, extra, extra, extra time, but I don't know if I like the World Cup being decided on PKs, 'cause the more I think about it, with the way that Spain plays, specifically defensively, and, and really the only offense coming on counters, and then Argentina with those guys offensively,
23:22
I think Spain tries to keep it away from Argentina, doesn't let them set up offensively, and then we could be looking towards a draw, which will then lead to a potential shootout, and, like, then Argentina has the advantage.
23:33
Hmm. Yeah, I'm, I, I'm with you, man. I, I have a feeling, I think I'm gonna play that under in the first half. Kind of have a feeling just the game under is a really good bet, too. Yeah, I agree.
23:44
Uh, just with how Spain's playing, and then if, i- if this Messi magic finally stops, right? And the, that's amazing Spain defense could step up and really shut them down. Yeah, I think this could be a low-scoring game.
23:55
All right, as far as I have today in Major League Baseball, we return for the second half, and we're looking at the Rays coming up here. What time is it? About, what, an hour and- About an hour... 12 minutes.
24:05
Griffin Jax on the bump taking on Jake Bennett. Look, I understand wanting to back Jake Bennett. He's been red hot. I, I'm one of these people where I look for opportunities to bet against someone who's on a surge.
24:15
I, I just think Tampa Bay is a good play. I got plus money. It's now minus 107. I don't love that as much. But in baseball, I like to take these plus prices when I can find them, when I'm into them.
24:25
Jax has been good this year. Tampa Bay has seen him before. And the Rays are 19 and 7 straight up against lefties. Boston 6 and 10 in home division games.
24:35
They're also 30 and 38 straight up against righties, minus 17 units on the year. Give me Tampa Bay. Taking the Cubs minus 138. I love this spot against Bailey Ober and the Twins. Ober pitches to a lot of contact.
24:46
And right now, the, the Cubs at the end of the first half have been great the last two months. We're talking about a team, 54 homers last 36 games, OPS around 786.
24:56
And then Ober since 2024, 0 and 9 against teams averaging one and a quarter or more home runs per game.
25:03
I think this offense for Chicago decimates Minnesota, and then Colin Ray keeps them in this ballgame with a 272 home ERA. Give me the Tigers. Give me Detroit on the road at the Angels, -104.
25:17
Troy Melton's been better, and the Tigers are the offense that I trust. It's simple as that. Detmers against teams averaging 4.4 or less runs per game, 2 and 12 straight up going back to 2024.
25:27
And then finally, the Giants Mariners were on the under because I believe Bryce Miller and Landon Roop will keep both offenses that I hate at bay today at T-Mobile in Seattle. Those are the plays. I like it. I like it.
25:41
I only got one from yesterday. It's, uh, old Chad Tracy, 28 to 1 AL manager of the year. Let's go Red Sox. All right, get the tweets in, uh, @VSINLive, @DustinSweedelson, @KellyBidlin. Steve Fezzik's gonna join us.
25:52
Pro handicapper, only two-time winner of the Hilton Super Contest, and he's been listening to me all week on the show. I trigger Steve. Over, under,
26:02
three and a half items will be discussed about something I brought up during the show that he hates over the last five days. Find out when we return on Numbers Game.
26:12
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
26:35
[upbeat rock music] Back here on our Numbers Game, Dustin Sweedelson, Kelly Bidlin.
26:38
We're here for another 30 minutes here on the program, SiriusXM channel 158, YouTube TV, the VSiN Watch app, radio affiliates across the United States of God Bless America, and Game Plus in Canada.
26:47
Kelly thought he had to update me there and chime in, but I remembered this time. Hey, day five, you finally got it. It's only the end of the week. Or like- I figured out the routine here...
26:54
or like day 25 I'm feeling a little issue at this point- Yeah, well, don't, don't point that out.
26:57
Well, a guy I've been talking betting with for a long time who's been lecturing me, teaching me, helping me get better as a bettor is gonna join us next. It is time for a Fezzik Friday.
27:08
[upbeat rock music] Whether it's at the sportsbook or anywhere else in the casino, he's always helping us find an edge. It's time for Fezzik Fridays. That's a good little open for Fezzik there. I love it. Right?
27:19
Got a little B-roll. Steve Fezzik joins us, the only two-time winner of the Hilton Super Contest, professional handicapper, and I wanna lead with this, Steve. We've known each other, it's 10 years.
27:31
2016, I started producing Patrick Maher on Mad Dog Sports Radio. You were joining three times a week, I think, back then, maybe four. Woo.
27:39
And we learn something every day, but I also know at times I say things that can trigger you. If you've been listening this week, over, under three and a half times I've said something that triggered you this week? Zero.
27:51
Oh! [laughs] Wow. No. I'm learning. I'm learning. Look at that. Wait, where'd you get that jacket? [laughs] That's like fucking great. Fast Times at Ridgemont High. Yep. We've got the progression of casual here.
28:01
[laughs] We've got the progression of casual. That's right. We got the blazer, the button-down, and the polo. [laughs] So what's going on, Steve? What are we doing? How we feeling today? I'm, I'm feeling great.
28:09
You know, it's interesting you introduce me as professional handicapper. I'm really much more of a professional gambler, because there are, there are people who are better pure handicappers.
28:19
But in terms of getting the best of the number and whatever you can do to, to, to get in, and, uh, pursuant to that, you know, I was betting Iowa State under. I really like Iowa State under. No returning starters. Yeah.
28:31
Everyone's gonna like Iowa State under. The, the word is out. It's a good story. So -180, I'm like, "They're not gonna win six games." And then, well, what's this Jared Smith's like?
28:40
"Uh, it's -130 over at place undisclosed." [laughs] And like I hop in the car, I'm like, "I'm gonna be late for dinner," you know? [laughs] I gotta, I gotta get down. Well, yeah. Yes. You know what?
28:49
That, that, that's kind of a really good place to start, 'cause I did a podcast yesterday and someone was asking me about, you know, w- what's the plan of attack if someone wants to be good at, at sports betting?
28:58
I said, "We gotta choose what you are." Are you an arbitrage bettor? Are you someone who bets on situational spots? Are you someone who thinks they know X's and O's?
29:06
Which I would warn everyone who thinks they just know sports they're gonna be a good bettor, that is probably the least reliable one.
29:11
I, what, what would you say are, are the, the possible ways someone could approach this if they're just getting started as a bettor? Well, so you, you're outlining, you know, bottom-up and top-down- Yes... handicapping.
29:22
So bottom-up is you, you, you, you build the sausage. You know every aspect of it. You, you handicap all the players. You have your own power ratings. You adjust for like air quality today is lousy.
29:31
Kelly Bidlin, I'm like researching AI, bad air. Is that good for unders? And maybe not. Apparently, the baseball travels quite well- Sure... in, [laughs] in, in horrible- Yeah... air pollution areas.
29:43
So, um, you know, there's so much to do.
29:45
The opposite would be y- you, the, the top-down where, like if you can just find a guy that's like really sharp and he says, "Play Iowa State under," [laughs] then all you gotta do is have a ton outs and, and spot the very best number and jam it in before it moves even further.
30:02
How about evolving as a bettor? Because when I first started talking with you, it was mostly football. You did other things.
30:10
But it does appear over the last, I don't know, five, six years, you've branched out more and more to some of the other sports as well. Were there more a part of your routine day in and day out betting?
30:19
And with the evolution, how big a role do prediction markets play in that? Yeah. Uh, it's interesting. Great question. The prediction markets are fantastic when you're betting sides. Mm.
30:29
When you're betting big premium things. So like all week long, everyone's gonna be like, "I like Spain." By the way, I, I too like Spain. Minus, you know, the 145, and I don't like Argentina plus 143.
30:41
And people are like, "Whoa. Slow down, Fezz. Those aren't real numbers. It's -160 plus 135." I'm gonna say it. Nobody wins laying -160.
30:51
Oh, you might win [laughs] on Sunday, but long-term you're not gonna win laying -160 when you can bet tens of thousands of dollars -145.
30:58
Same with Don't Cry For Me Argentina, you know, the truth is they're just not very good, but they got great loyal fans and they're clutch.
31:06
Um, but +135, woefully inadequate when the, the fair market value right now, Spain -143, Argentina +143.
31:15
Let's go back to those numbers, because I'm doing something a little bit later on today that we're doing on VSiN where I'm recording something, and o- o- one of the, the philosophies I wanted to bring up was just be careful laying big numbers, but you better love it if you're gonna lay the big number, right?
31:28
'Cause at the, at the, the higher vig, you have to be successful at a different rate. It's 52.4% at -110, right? Then from there on 150 is 60%.
31:38
So you're saying at around -150, -144, you think it's a better than 55 and a half to 60% chance Spain's gonna win this match.
31:46
Yeah, I, well, I think Spain's probably gonna win, like, 64%, which means it would be quite a large bet. Yes.
31:51
At, but if you got, if you have, like, noVig.com and you can lay -145 or whatever it is, n- now you're, you're styling. You got a big edge. Whereas if you're laying -160, well, who needs that, you know?
32:03
You're frying hamburgers at best. Um, you talk about the 52.4%, the -110, when you're betting games, and by the way, I still use traditional sports books all the time. Mm-hmm.
32:13
Like baseball, bet first five, because the prediction markets don't have enough liquidity on stuff like that. Right.
32:19
And so, like, I don't want the Washington Nationals for the game, but, but I want them today for the first five, et cetera.
32:24
But the, um, when, when, when you're talking about, like, even -105, the difference between laying -110, let me use -109. No difference at all. It's one crappy penny, right? Mm-hmm. 109 versus 110, but think about it.
32:35
No, it, it's like paying $10 for a hamburger versus $9. It's actually a big difference. It's a.45% difference. That sounds trivial. Blackjack players will fly across the country- Yep...
32:47
to get rules where they get double after split, re-split aces, dealer stands soft 17 and surrender. You add those up, that's worth, like, half a percent. So think about what it's like at -105.
32:57
That's, like, 2 and a half percent. Now blackjacks are paying two to one. Sure. People are flying to Australia, Kelly- Yeah, I b-... to play blackjack...
33:02
I think one of the best examples is, of this in recent years was even just Westgate going to, what, 109? Wasn't it 109 on the NFL sides? Yes.
33:09
Like, fine, if I'm gonna look at three across the board, I'm still gonna go to 109 every time instead of 110. Wanna ask you though, Steve, with the prediction markets, how much...
33:19
I love that you brought up the liquidity factor. Yeah. 'Cause that's big. I think it does maybe limit some of the markets that you can truly bet into and bet into successfully and get good numbers out there.
33:30
Where do you, where would you recommend best, best, uh, things for people to be looking at or actually betting there? You brought up sides. We're coming up on NFL season here.
33:39
Everything for NFL, college football, like, where would you tell them to go to those to check out for what? Well, go, go to my Twitter, because I've been- Okay... I'm, I'm not an expert on this. So- At Fezzik Sports...
33:48
so I'm learning as I go, all right? Yeah. And so I l- l- l- so there's a fellow, Sam, that I just, you know, uh, retweeted, and he's got a prediction market daily update.
33:58
And, and it's, I, a- and it's right on the top of my, my, you know, my X that I'm recommending it. But, um, I would, I would hunt around, you know, the Kalches, the Polymarkets, the, uh, I love noVig.com.
34:09
Um, there's one called forecasters.io. Mm-hmm. All these have restrictions. They might not be allowed in your state or your country. But, um, kick around.
34:16
Now, the one thing to be really careful with is that the prices they show, some of them charge, um, expenses on top of that. Yeah. Commissions. Sometimes it's just for the market taker.
34:26
So you see it on the screen, "Oh, I can take it, -102." Sometimes they don't charge the market maker, where you put up the offer. Be really careful if you're just getting started. Don't put up offers. Mm-hmm.
34:38
Because it's complicated. I'm not even gonna go into all the complications.
34:40
Well, yeah, w- w- we've learned here is that you have to make sure you pull the market down before the event begins, 'cause people- At certain places, yeah...
34:46
keep slamming a, a rogue number if you don't pull your market down. Well, like, the worst example is live. You're, you're, you're, you're watching the Pirates playing. Right.
34:54
"Oh, let me put up a live bet on the Pirates," and then, "Oh, no," you know, the first two guys get on base. Of course your order gets filled to the limit.
35:01
You're gonna get destroyed if you're not, you know, used to this.
35:04
So even though you may have to pay, you know, an expense, a commission that you might not have to pay if you are the market maker, you, I would still, when you first start, just be a market taker and accept offers, and then you can evolve and start to put up offers.
35:18
But I never put up big offers just for what you were saying, Dustin, because even if it's pre-flop injuries, "Oh, Aaron Rogers isn't playing." Well, that's a bad example, because it probably doesn't matter.
35:27
[laughs] Right. But, but Mahomes isn't playing and, and you get filled every time. Pro bettor Steve Fezzik's with us @FezzikSports. You can follow him on X for all the information he was just talking about.
35:36
We got about 90 seconds to go in the segment, Steve, but liquidity, you mentioned it. Why is that so important if you're gonna bet into these prediction markets?
35:42
Well, where it's most important is that you think that, uh, "Hey, everyone's, all the sharp money's on a certain side," but it's an offer for $8 [laughs] that's sitting out there, so it doesn't even, e- even move.
35:54
Like, I talk about the value of betting because you can lay -102, but you can also use it, and this is, like, a hidden secret. We used to use Pinnacle, like, or the Pinnacle lean to help us- Mm-hmm...
36:04
the source of truth, Captain Jack Andrews, obviously his source of truth. The, being able to see Spain -144, Argentina +143 tells you what the line should be. Here, seeing -160, +135 tells you nothing.
36:15
Yeah, for example, I, I, I notice that it mattered early on when I was messing with prediction markets 'cause just to explain the conversion, I, I would punch in, like, $10 so I could get that conversion of, "Okay, well, I know that this bet is 28 to 1," but the second I made that 10 a 100, it went from a, about a 28 to 1 payout down to, like, I don't know, like, a 9, 10, 11 to 1, something like that.
36:34
I went, "How does that make sense?" Then I realized it was because the liquidity in the market wasn't there for them to take on a bet of that size. So we'll do more on that with the prediction markets.
36:43
More on strategy for betting these win totals, college football and the NFL, with Steve Fezzik in the next segment.
36:48
But wanna remind y'all, Winners Circle Proxy and VSiN are giving away two incredible prize packages that will put two lucky fans into the world's biggest football contest for free.
36:57
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37:08
Enter by Sunday, August 2nd for your chance to win. winnerscircleproxy.com/vsin. That's winnerscircleproxy.com/V-S-I-N. More with Fezz on the other side of a Numbers Game.
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37:53
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
38:09
Back at it on on Numbers Game, Dustin Swedelson, Kelly Bidling joined in studio by pro bettor Steve Fezzik @FezzikSports. You can find him on X.
38:17
We're continuing the discussion with the prediction markets because of their rise, their popularity, and really, the, the offers that they have for everyone, whether it's the markets or it's the pricing.
38:27
And I asked you during the break if you saw the news story that came out yesterday, 'cause it's kinda wild.
38:31
One of the president's speech writers was placing bets on words he may say within his speech, and then got caught getting off of positions that he had bought when the president was skipping over those words in his speech.
38:44
And that made me wonder, where is the regulation? What is the regulation? How is it coming for these things? What stood out to you, Steve, about that story?
38:51
So I am not a lawyer, so take what I say with a grain of salt, but I believe that all these markets are, you know, regulated by the, uh, you know, tr- trading rules, and there is inside trading.
39:02
But again, I'm not an expert, but what stands out to me is don't bet into that sort of thing. It's, it's the same thing- Hmm... like LeBron, what team is he gonna go to?
39:10
As Gordon Gekko said in Wall Street, "Yeah, either, uh, stop going out there and reporting information to me, and start going out and getting the information- Right... before it's reported," and the people, people know.
39:23
And what s- stands out to me is it's like that movie Dumb and Dumber where everyone who gets caught, it's like that Alabama baseball coach betting 250,000, "Hey, my star pitcher's out," it's like there's, th- there's no stealth.
39:36
There's no serpentine. Mm-hmm. They're, like, just charging directly ahead with their bayonet and getting shot, everyone who's getting caught. It's like,
39:44
like how hard would it have been for this guy to know someone who knows someone with a burner phone and it would have al- gone completely undetected. And so the people who are getting caught are...
39:55
The same thing with fixing games. I j- I don't think he knew he was doing anything wrong. Like, that's part of it. That's, that may be completely- Like, that's, you know what I mean?
40:01
Yeah, yeah, yeah, he probably thought he didn't knew, doing, he wasn't doing anything wrong. Or at least do something wrong enough- Or-... he could get in trouble for, right?
40:06
Or they're, these people, and we're seeing it with, like, the NBA scandal, they're the worst, dumbest criminals of all time.
40:13
Look at the bookmakers that have been busted in, in, in Vegas, like laundering multi-millions of dollars and they're betting tens of millions of dollars at Resorts World, and it's like th- it's like they want to get caught.
40:24
It's like they got a big bulls like, "Hey," you know? I, I, like pr- Crack says this, like, "Some people try to stay out of jail, and some people are looking for a ticket in." [laughs] Exactly.
40:32
Like, like Monopoly where you're better off in jail than, like, landing on the hotel at Boardwalk. The, the, the one thing I will give this guy, though, i, if for... Have you ever run a teleprompter before?
40:41
I had to in college. Okay, so like- I was horrible at it. It, it's, it's not as easy as you probably think at home. For anybody who's run a teleprompter, the, the idea that- Whoa...
40:49
he was doing that with one hand and the other hand selling off positions, I'm just impressed by it.
40:54
I'd also say the new age ones might be following your eyes a little bit better, especially when the president's involved where it might be automated to some degree. Maybe it's got foot pedals too. Yeah.
41:01
And, and you get to see it, like, 20 minutes before. That's all it takes, right? That's true. If it's... That's right. It's pre-taped. No, but the whole idea was he w- he would ad-lib.
41:08
He would ad-lib, so he knew- No, that's when you go, yeah, he skipped over my line... oh, he's ad-libbing, like, I better sell off something here. Yeah, he skipped over my line. All right.
41:14
Let's start looking at win totals. We'll, we'll do a little, 'cause you sent about college football, and I'm just curious. It's July 17th.
41:20
Is there still meat on the bone with college football win totals w- with the season starting in a little bit over a month? Oh, 100%, and so for years, and Kelly knows this, Doc, the great Dr.
41:29
Bob Stull, not in the sports betting hall of fame, some call it the, the sports administrator hall of fames, despite being the guy who every betting syndicate in a s- snake draft would take number one.
41:40
[laughs] It's like it, it, it, it would almost be like, "Oh, we don't want Wemby in the, in the basketball hall of fame," but he's the best player.
41:48
Um, but he would come on, uh, on ANG, and I actually think he lost a little last year, but he's, like, historically hit, like 70%, and he comes on early in August, and the reason being the NFL is a very liquid market.
42:01
Mm-hmm, mm-hmm. All right? There's big limits already on the season wins, and the numbers are pretty darn sharp.
42:06
By contrast, these college [laughs] teams, you're gonna see, you know, uh, movements of a game, a ga- even a game and a half on certain teams, and look, there's no stability.
42:17
I personally played Iowa State under five and a half at all different types of vigs. They got zero returning starters. Zero, you know? Is that good? Yeah, usually not. Well, unless they all sucked.
42:26
That's the only thing with college football when people talk about returning starters sometimes, I'm like, yeah, but they won three games last year. Like, eh, that's not necessarily a thing.
42:32
Well, well, yeah, but, but th- there's also gonna be a common theme I would say with college football previews happening over the next month or so with everyone.
42:39
Everyone's gonna say, "You know, their whole offensive line is all new." Yeah, everyone just buys offensive linemen in the off-season. Right, yeah, no, that too. Very few teams are returning offensive lines.
42:47
To your point, you might wanna question why that team is returning so many offensive linemen- Yeah... 'cause no one wanted those guys. A- and the good story. The, the, i- if every newsletter I'm...
42:55
By the way, I've got, shout out to my friend Mark Lawrence, another guy not in the sports betting hall of fame- Well, there you go. Yeah... that should be, and like boom, I got the playbook.
43:02
Here is why I love the playbook. Look at how light this thing is. I don't have to like... Yeah, Warren Sharp's publication's great, but I got, like, a hiatal hernia carting that thing around, you know?
43:11
You gotta be really, like, like, it, i- it takes up a lot of space. I throw one in the car. I throw one at home.
43:17
Of course, it's nice 'cause he sends it to me for free, but I, i- i- ba- basically first read Try to find a, there's teams that everyone's gonna be bullish on. Mm-hmm. Like BYU, everyone loves BYU.
43:28
So- Ben Brockmire, bro. So if you bet over, if you're gonna bet- I, I just learned about him two days ago... on BYU, bet it now. [laughs] Don't like, like smoke dope all summer- Ugh...
43:37
and then 10 minutes before the game starts, lay, lay an extra 40 cents on the over if you like BYU over. Jarrett Smith likes BYU over, I agree.
43:45
Yeah, and if you like the over and you bet it early, maybe there's a chance that all of th- sudden things move in a way where the number moves, or you can get plus money on the under.
43:53
You could lock in a profit and then you're stress-free for the whole season. I am a huge believer, this is my friend, some people criticize this as being, um, a bad strategy, but they're just dumbos.
44:03
Um, o- my friend Leon, who, who goes by the eight of clubs, the least distinct card in the deck, but now I gave away his name again, um, he would love, he just would write o- every season win number, like, uh, the end, NFL week one, he'd write all the numbers down, lock it up in a shelf, right?
44:18
Okay, uh, Chargers are laying 10.75, lock it up.
44:22
And then he would open it back up the day of the g- wh- when the season's about to start, same with season wins, and anything that seemed like crazy, he would fade and he'd go the, look to go the other way.
44:31
And here's the beauty of it.
44:33
Because it's a tsunami of money coming in the other direction, even if the market on the Chargers closes, you know, let's, let- let's say they catch steam and they close 11.5, you'll probably get the dog plus 12 plus 102 at one of these prediction markets or someplace else, 'cause like people love to back the steam if the steam...
44:49
I'm not saying the steam's gonna flow on the Chargers- Yeah... but j- just using it as an example. It will flow positive on BYU season win, negative on Iowa State. Okay, love it.
44:58
Uh, we just got a few minutes left, Steve. I know you've got, I, I, I think you got some great thoughts here on MLB betting today and kind of next couple days just right after this All-Star break.
45:07
Uh, what, what are you focused in on most today? So I look towards lower scoring. Mm. And it just makes sense. You only get one vacation a year, and you only get five days off, and so everyone goes to Cabo, whatever.
45:19
Uh, th- I don't think they're going- Who's swinging a bat? Yeah. I don't think they're going to Aspen to just kick back and get an early night's sleep, a nice, a sleepy, you know, mountain to- to- town vacation.
45:28
They're, they're, they're, they're, they're really partying. And so, and I get it, the pitchers are also, but the pitchers' arms are rested now, so they, you, all, all pen, they, the whole pen i- y- you can utilize.
45:39
And the starting pitcher at least probably is saying, "You know, I'm starting today. Maybe I should like get back from vacay, you know, on Wednesday night instead of Friday morning [laughs] before- Right, sure...
45:50
the game starts." So, uh, b- i- if, um, and we saw that Thursday night, so we saw a good matchup for the over 4-1. Um, game goes way under.
45:58
I think if you bet every game under and you bet the grand salami under, the next, on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, the next five years, you'd make money. Now, the reason I say you wouldn't make money today, you're gambling.
46:09
Yeah, sure. There's variance. So I don't want people to say, "Fez is an idiot," you know, this, y- y- y- you know, "I, I, I went 7 and 8," or whatever, you know, doing this.
46:17
But I do think if, and you're not betting market numbers. Shop around, use all these prediction markets. Don't lay minus 110 if the total is nine everywhere. Find some place you can lay under nine minus 104.
46:27
All right, settle a debate here on the show, positive regression. Kelly says it's a thing. I said it's not a thing, it's called improving. Who's right in this debate? I think you're both right.
46:39
I think, like, like if somebo- someone's s- so s- somebody might argue you're both wrong. There's no such thing as positive regression, right? They, they, basically, um, this is the hard part.
46:47
So you get a team that stinks, the Mets, right? The Mets are supposed to, Joe Peta, who I love and who's gonna have a winning year I think with season wins, he says bet the Mets over 90, and they just stink. I did.
46:56
They stink. Um, I hope you didn't bet action points. If so, you're gonna be pawning that fine-looking, you know, blazer of yours. Um, but- [laughs] Put a lot of comments on the jacket today. Uh, I like the jacket.
47:06
I, I, I, I, I do. Um, so the, the Mets are 17 games below 500, and now the oddsmakers [laughs] are still pricing them anchored to that pre-season expectation like, "Hey, they're getting healthier.
47:18
They're gonna be close to a 500 team." Nothing on the field indicates the Mets are gonna be close to a 500 team, and we would expect they'd be sellers at the deadline.
47:26
So people on the positive regression, people would say, "Wow, you gotta bet on the Mets. All they gotta do is c- almost play, you know, play close to 500 ball and they're gonna go over." I'm more of the same. I'm mots.
47:37
I'm like, I'm like they w- w- they, they, you are what your record says you are by this point. Yeah, and they're gonna be a very different team the rest of the way. They're gonna trade at the deadline, sell off pieces.
47:48
The report came out basically like five or six guys are untouchable. Everyone else is available. I bet them 10 to 1 this week to have the worst record in baseball when all is said and done.
47:56
Under 71 and a half, put me down for that. It's probably s- 72 and a half 'cause they won yesterday. Um, but c- grade me s- under 71 and a half.
48:02
The Mets, if you look at their schedule, they gotta play like the Dodgers, the Phillies, Atlanta. They are gonna be a dog the next nine games. There's only one series they should be favored to win.
48:11
They're playing the Giants three games. Every other team's average or above average. They're all better than the Mets, so, and the A's. The A's under 71 and a half. That team has hit the skids.
48:22
Steve, it was great catching up. Awesome. You have my number now again. You can text me when I annoy you on the air here on VSiN. I love catching up with you, my friend. That's what I do with Kelly every week.
48:30
[laughs] That's great. All right, for Kelly, I'm Dustin. Stay with VSiN Prop Points.
48:35
Jeff Erickson, Nick Wale, they have you covered, then they hand it off to JBT and Stormy, followed by Mitch and Paul on Follow the Money. See you next time. [upbeat music]
A Numbers Game
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