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Jul 19, 2024
A Numbers Game | July 19, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | July 19, 2024 | Hour 1
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44:45
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on BSIN. Welcome in everybody.
0:09
Friday edition of a Numbers Game is live from downtown Las Vegas Bar, Canada at the D. I'm Ben Wilson in for Gil one more day. Kelly Bittling is here at the Shield, and we have a lot to talk about today.
0:20
Major league baseball finally for most of us as bettors gets back underway here second half of the season, post all-star break resuming tonight with a full slate of games. We also will talk some college football today.
0:32
Paul Stone is with us in town to bet some game of the year markets, at least I think that is why Paul Stone is in town.
0:37
We'll talk with him coming up later on today at 11:30 Eastern, and Lou Finicaro on a very good UFC card coming up at 11 Eastern as well.
0:44
Of course, N- NFL, NBA talk, but we start the show, Kelly, with the open championship round number two, and, uh, f- we, we kind of go back first to yesterday.
0:53
We were on the air as the first round was winding down, and, uh, boy howdy, if you had a Shane Lowry first round leader ticket, pour one out. Uh, [laughs]
1:01
say, say an ode to the first round golf bettor if you had Lowry, who does not win the first round. He was a shot back of Daniel Brown, who comes out of nowhere, was as high as 350-1 to be first round leader.
1:11
Brown has since taken a step back. Uh, Kelly, another really good round though for Shane Lowry, who is at seven under in the clubhouse as the weather is starting to turn.
1:18
It's getting bad out there as we go into the afternoon. Yeah. L- yeah, looks like, uh...
1:22
Y- I mean, the, you know, weather forecast kind of what we saw, thought coming into the week, we s- we mentioned this a couple times yesterday, Ben. Um, it's kind of been what we thought it was gonna be.
1:32
It's just been, in my opinion, a little bit worse as a f- as far as affecting the course and the p- and the golfers than I expected it, uh, to be.
1:39
But where we're seeing wind at and everything, that, that's really what the forecast was calling for the whole week. So, um, no huge surprises there.
1:46
It does look like it's only gonna get, and probably only gonna get worse here this afternoon. But yes, if you had a Shane Lowry ticket, God bless you. That is gonna be one...
1:53
That is one of the worst golf, uh, bad beats I've ever seen. D- I mean, Daniel Brown, like this guy is... I, it, it's a, this is beyond like a tin cup nobody, like B- uh, Ben Wilson. Like this is [laughs]...
2:04
I mean, maybe not that far.
2:05
We give the guy some credit, but- Well, what, you heard the, you heard the broadcast yesterday say they, their first thought when they saw his name on the leaderboard was, uh, "Oh, the author of, uh, Angels and Demons?"
2:14
[laughs] "The Da Vinci Code? That guy?" And I was like, "Nice joke, old guys on NBC." [laughs] Right. Exactly.
2:20
Like, that was so, so vintage, like, trying to, you know, try to, try to sound cool for the young kids watching. Like, let me make a Dan Brown Da Vinci Code joke. But, uh, yeah- I mean-...
2:28
that's about all that they could come up with... he played, so he played in the Scottish Open last week. I, my...
2:33
but the only thing I'm trying to figure out now is how did he qualify, or how did he get into the Scottish Open? [laughs] Which I don't get. He did make the cut there.
2:40
Before that, he had missed cut or withdrawn in six straight tournaments on the, on the DP World Tour. So that's what you were dealing with yesterday at Daniel Brown.
2:48
And you know the worst part about it, Ben, is how many people I was, I, I was tweeting with yesterday who golf coverage went off the air on, on USA. They didn't switch over to Peacock- And they just-...
3:00
had Shane Lowry first round leader tickets 'cause- These were what, like two... I think Lowry was about to go to 18 when they switched to Peacock. And I think they were tied at that point. Yeah.
3:07
Brown had a couple holes to go on him. So yes, if you did not, uh, go to the Peacock, you were- Yeah. That's where the dream went down... so you didn't even get to watch your ticket burn up in front of you.
3:15
Uh, Brown made his, made his w- way into the field due to, uh, final qualifying. Okay. So he did, he had to go the hard way.
3:21
Uh, previously just one win in the European tour, which is when he beat Matthew Fitzpatrick's, uh, brother, as many know him, as Alex Fitzpatrick, uh, last August. That was his first win on the European tour.
3:32
Uh, needless to say, and, uh, you know, honestly though, you would th- I didn't see what the second round prop on Brown was today after he gained [laughs] almost four and a half strokes putting on the field.
3:40
Ba- actually similar numbers, uh, from a advanced data standpoint as to what Shane Lowry did, but you had to th- have, have assumed the over under for round two, Kelly, was in the mid-70s on Brown.
3:50
Honestly, hasn't been bad today. One over through 13. He is still solo second right now. It has not been this, uh, this come up and then this rapid, uh, decline, but- Yeah...
3:58
what is really impressive, which, is what Shane Lowry has done, he goes two under through his final five holes here.
4:03
Uh, the strokes gained data does not come out till these guys are in the clubhouse, and it's a little bit delayed on that, so we don't have SG data yet on Shane Lowry. But, uh, he goes to seven under par.
4:11
He is a plus 180 favorite to win the golf tournament. Uh, having said all that, the pre-tournament favorite, Scottie Scheffler, is still in really good shape.
4:18
Scheffler at three under par right now, has a par putt, uh, to, from about eight feet to get into the clubhouse at three under par, be solo fourth, and, uh, he's a guy you did add, Kelly, overnight.
4:28
Has he still not hit that putt yet? Geez. I feel like we- I don't know. I mean-... we saw that forever ago. Um- My leaderboard is not updated. I mean, I wanna- Yeah, but... No, uh, but mine's saying the same thing. Yeah.
4:36
Uh, the, uh, yeah, I added Scheffler this morning, um, couple hours ago. It was a little over four to one. Oh, he missed the putt. Missed the putt, cool. Two under- 30 something now... into the clubhouse.
4:44
T four at two under par, but a, a one un- that's back to back 70s, so not, not, uh, not the worst situation to be in.
4:50
Five back, uh, he is plus 360, so even, you know, where you added him, Kelly, as we'll talk about, he is at least numbers-wise in better shape as the second favorite right now.
4:59
I'm assuming that number's gonna get longer, although the books are usually ahead of us when the TV coverage... Um, anyways, I bet him at like f- 410.
5:08
I was gonna say just four strokes off, I think he'd still be a good bet at plus 360. Um, you know, j- uh, but now we're talking five strokes. Shane Lowry, uh, doing, doing what he do- uh, I, I mean, what he's done.
5:22
I'm not gonna take anything away from Shane Lowry. He's, uh, played great golf and absolutely has the capability, uh, to go win this tournament. We have seen him do it before. Um, it's just...
5:32
You've also had, so what, 39, this from Justin Ray, 39 of the last 44 open championsh- uh, champions have been in the top 10 after 36 holes.
5:40
Um, we also had Uh, y- well, after the first round, nobody had come, nobody had come back to win the thing, win the thing outside of four strokes back.
5:50
So all, all things to keep in mind if you don't, if you're, uh, considering getting involved- Yeah... with Scottie Scheffler like I did. Basically, one under then is your threshold right now.
5:58
That's where a host of guys are at, uh, as far as the top 10.
6:01
The guys in the clubhouse at one under, Corey Conners, Jason Day, Patrick Cantlay, who was really good today, and the third favorite right now on the odds board, uh, Xander Schauffele, who was in the clubhouse at one under par.
6:11
Also, a couple guys at two under in the clubhouse, Billy Horschel, Dean Burmester. I would not have thought, uh, especially Horschel with the way his form has been. Yeah.
6:19
I would not have handicapped him in my top five, but those are your guys, uh- Yeah, Burmester was a popular pick. Yeah...
6:23
Yeah, Burmester's, yeah, this is a, a classic links player from South Africa, uh, who, yes, has been very good in the past at the Open. Uh, but those are your guys in the clubhouse right now, and it, it's a small list.
6:32
I mean, at the very least, Kelly, you're getting a guy about the same price as Scheffler went off at pre-tournament, and you basically are eliminating, what? 88% of the field with that bet. Yeah, exactly.
6:42
And I, and, and I don't, I w- I wouldn't have made it... Um, I mean, look, I was expecting a little bit more regression from Shane Lowry. That didn't happen.
6:50
But, uh, I also wouldn't have made it i- if it looked like the weather was gonna calm down more this afternoon.
6:57
I, I think it does look like there's gonna be a bit of a wave advantage when it's all said and done, uh, for this tournament.
7:02
Something we're gonna be talking about a little bit, uh, uh, next year, um, 'cause I think this weather's probably only getting worse here this afternoon.
7:08
And it might not be im- you know, a ton, but they're already playing through tough conditions.
7:12
They already played through tough conditions this morning, and if it gets any tougher, uh, they're in a, they're in a pretty rough spot.
7:18
I think a, a couple guys, just if you were looking to get in, like, live, uh, with guys still playing, I would caution because of the weather. But, um, like I had bets on Tony Finau. I loved him coming in.
7:29
He's at even par right now, just getting his round started. He's through two holes.
7:33
Joaquin Niemann, I, I know he's got a game that i- I didn't bet, bet him at all, uh, Ben, but he, he's got a game that is fit for these conditions with the low ball flight and everything that he's able to take, and he's already two under on his round through three holes.
7:47
So he's someone I would consider, too, if you're looking for some live, uh, live betting opportunities. Sure thing. Yeah.
7:51
You'd figure too, this cut, it's projected four over if you look at the website right now, but there are 72 guys, the top 70 in ties, that make the cut. It was four over back in 2016.
8:01
You have to think, though, with the way the weather is turning here for the afternoon, uh, the wave there, Kelly. We have a bunch of guys who have just started who are in that three, four over range.
8:09
Gotta think this gets to five at the very least, right? Yeah, I would think five or six, but yeah, gonna depend on the conditions here- Yeah... and how, how tough it is for these guys in the afternoon.
8:18
Yeah, some notable guys who are right on that, uh, cut line. Robert McIntyre triples one. He's four over. Ludvig Aberg just teed off and parred the first. He's at four.
8:26
Viktor Hovland about to get underway as well shortly, uh, four over as well.
8:30
And, uh, the guy who was the leader actually when we came on the air yesterday, Kelly, in that, that early to late wave that we figured would be kind of second-best as far as the optimal start time for Thursday, Friday, Justin Thomas.
8:41
Three under par was, for a long time, the round one leader before th- all those guys late in the afternoon surged ahead of him.
8:46
JT six over through his first seven holes today, and so he's gone from being on the front page of the leaderboard to in danger of just, uh, getting to the weekend here as he's three over now for the tournament.
8:56
T-39 for JT. Love JT, man. Yeah. But this is a great example of how his season has been, uh, thus far, right? He's b- Up and down... he's had some great finishes.
9:04
He's had some, m- you know, more missed cuts than we're used to seeing from him. He's kind of been all over the place all year, so I, I think no surprise to see that. Ah, JT. JT, JT.
9:14
Yes, it would, uh, looked so good for a round. Uh, also the other couple of guys, we should shout out to Justin Rose. We haven't mentioned his name yet. Four under par for the tournament.
9:20
He's through eight holes there, but, uh, Justin Rose two under today. He's been super consistent so far. Solo third right now, a shot behind, uh, Daniel Brown.
9:28
Again, Shane Lowry is the leader and your tournament favorite at seven under par, looking for a second Open championship after winning at Royal Portrush back in 2019.
9:37
In case people are wondering too, I did get, I, I asked for it, but I did get multiple- You got multiple... not one bet, multiple tickets of first round leader on Daniel Brown, uh, sent to me from yesterday. Crazy.
9:49
Now, no bet was bigger than $2, but, uh, still. [laughs] Hey. But still. Hey, win's a win, man. A win's a win.
9:54
Yeah, $2 bet on Daniel Brown is, like, you know, almost like a, like a thousand-dollar- That, that one was $600. That was three, three, uh- Yeah, I was gonna say... 300 to 1.
10:01
I was gonna say, that's alm- that's like a, you know, $300 bet on, uh, on Scottie Scheffler, uh, [laughs] to, based on where some of those numbers were at. Or a live bet on, uh, on, uh, Shane Lowry.
10:10
Uh, some of the other, uh, news and notes here, NBA-wise, this is not something that, uh, will move the needle really, Kelly, but, uh, the Russell Westbrook sign and trade is, is, uh, is apparently going to be complete here soon, and he is expected to be bought out from his contract, sign and trade between the Clippers and Utah Jazz.
10:25
Russ goes to Utah, but they're expected to buy him out, and he is expected, Russell Westbrook, according to ESPN, to sign with the Denver Nuggets, uh, where he will, hey, will, will that be, for a team that had so little bench depth at the very least- Yeah...
10:37
Kelly, will that be a, a boon for the Nuggets as they try to get back to supremacy in the Western Conference? I at least thought that was interesting, uh, yesterday. Yeah, I think a move like...
10:44
Well, I was a little frustrated after I just sat on here yesterday and talked about betting Christian Brown for most improved player and, uh- And then- Yeah, and then they get r- add Russell Westbrook.
10:52
Is he gonna e- you know, eat up some minutes? We'll see. Um, frustrated me a little bit, [laughs] a little bit.
10:57
I don't, I don't, I still kind of stand, I stand by the bet 'cause Christian Brown will still be in the starting lineup, uh, but it, it is something at least to be aware of.
11:05
Um, I think a move like that yesterday, Ben, and, and this, we're gonna need a couple years, uh, of sample size before we can really jump to these conclusions, but these, some of these teams, a, a, uh, the, this second apron stuff and what they're doing with the salary cap is really affecting some of these teams.
11:21
And when you see the Nuggets make a move like this, it just, it just reeks of desperation to me, that they lost KCP. They need any kind of depth that they can. They're adding Russell Westbrook.
11:31
I don't think it's really a great fit. Um, but they have so little- Sure... such little depth off the bench, like you're talking about, anybody helps, I guess.
11:38
And Chris Dunn goes to the Clippers as part of that sign and trade, uh, deal. Three-year, $17 million contract with the Clips.
11:43
We'll continue the NBA talk 'cause Kelly has a win total bet, and we'll talk some defensive player of the year as we're just getting started here on the Friday edition of The Numbers Game.
11:55
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12:40
Get full VSiN Pro access through the Super Bowl for an early bird discount of $175, vsin.com/subscribe. We will talk a lot of NFL today. We'll finish up our AFC divisions, a little AFC South, AFC West to close this hour.
12:54
Also, we'll go through our, uh, our kind of a new way version of our power ratings, which Gil and Kelly do throughout the regular season.
12:59
We'll go top five, bottom five, which I think, Kelly, is a very, um, interesting exercise. So we'll do that, uh, we'll do that later. I think we have some, some weird things that will come from it. It is.
13:07
It was a good idea by you, and for anybody that hates, uh, uh, Ben on Gil crime, there is more coming later in that segment. Oh, there is? Nice. Can't wait. I- There is. You made your rankings.
13:17
[laughs] I didn't know what Gil's rankings are, so I didn't, I didn't, you know... I try to be, uh, open with this.
13:21
I was, I, the idea came- I'm just saying there's a team that's special to Gil's heart that you have, uh- Oh, oh, oh, yeah... you have ranked pretty low. Oh, okay. Gotcha. Well, that makes sense.
13:30
Um, hey, but, uh, uh, that's, that's the reason why it's, it's not post-season power ratings, it's pre-season power ratings. [laughs] We're, we're wrong on this all the time.
13:36
I think we universally had the Texans, like, bottom five last year, and, uh, and they did, they did great. Yep. Uh, we'll get to that in a little bit. Uh, [laughs] as far as the NBA, we're gonna talk here.
13:46
Kelly has a win total bet he has made. We'll also talk some defensive player of the year, but I, I saw this story yesterday.
13:51
I know you were, we were talking about this as well, Kelly, uh, where David Purdum from ESPN reporting on all the bets coming in on, uh, Bronny James to win Rookie of the Year.
14:00
So all those people who bet their hard-earned cash on Bronny James to go number one overall in the NBA draft who lost were like, "Fear not, we're gonna make all this money back by just going to the well on Bronny James to win [laughs] Rookie of the Year here."
14:11
There was $1,000 Rookie of the Year bet taken by MGM at 250-to-1. Ugh.
14:18
Um, yeah, dr- accor- according to DraftKings, only Zach Edney, who was the, the early, that California Summer League, the star there, had his odds cut all the way from 20 to one down to, uh, six to one in a lot of places.
14:29
Only Edney has taken more money than James in the Rookie of the Year market, which, like, on the surface I get because it's a hard market this year, a lot of uncertainty, but at the same time, one player of those two, who's getting a lot of the action, has legitimately a 0.0001% chance of winning this award, and that 1% chance is only because nothing is guaranteed do not happen in this life, Kelly.
14:50
So we have to put a one at the very end of it. [laughs] I agree. And that is Bronny James to win Rookie of the Year. That is a great way to describe that absolutely. [laughs] And betting, nothing is guaranteed, yes.
14:58
[laughs] Uh- It's like the, uh, you know, it's basically like the Kevin Malone from The Office thing of, of if anything has 10,000 to one odds on it, you're obligated to bet it.
15:06
[laughs] That's kind of what people are doing with Bronny James, except it's not 10,000 to one, even though it, it should be. It should be. It probably should be longer. Yeah, it should be.
15:12
Uh, look, Bronny had another nice game last night, um- He did, yes... for the Lakers. The 13 points, five rebounds, three assists, two blocks. I, I ended up watching a, you know, a fair amount of it. Again, this is...
15:22
I mean, I know a lot of people might be complaining about, you know, no baseball on, nothing, nothing's on to, to bet on.
15:27
Man, I, between Summer League and golf every, a- and everything, Ben, I'm busy every day watching this stuff, man.
15:33
Uh, [laughs] but he, uh, I thought he put out another good performance last night, but yeah, man, re- reading this David Purdum piece, and this is, I, I had started to hear, I had heard this when the market had just gotten open, but man, these Rookie of the Year bets, this is, uh, like, this is a worse bet than betting him to go number one overall.
15:49
Like, I real- I really believe that bet.
15:51
[laughs] Like maybe, maybe there was some bizarre, bizarre, bizarre world where, like, they felt so desperate or somebody felt so desperate to get Bronny James to try to lure LeBron, that that could've happened in the first round.
16:03
I... That would've been a remote, a remote chance- Yes... when we, when we talk about percentages. I still think there is a better chance of that happening, though, than him winning Rookie of the Year.
16:11
This guy, we're talking about a guy who in all likelihood is going to start in the G League, should start in the G League.
16:16
If you like Bronny James, you're actually rooting for the kid, he should be in the G League and developing for the bulk of this season. He shouldn't be in the NBA much of this season.
16:24
Now, do I think we're gonna see him play in an NBA game this season? Yes, I do.
16:28
I, I, I think that this whole playing with his dad LeBron thing has, has been a narrative and a true story for the past three, four years now, however we've been ta- however long we've been talking about it at this point.
16:39
Once the Lakers drafted him, I think this, it showed that all of that was all true, what we were talking about for years. So does he play in a game? Yeah, but he's not gonna win Rookie of the Year.
16:48
You're right, it's a wide open race, but you're talking about, uh, there's 20, 30 guys that are gonna get regular minutes for NBA teams this season that would be way in front of him. So I just, just don't think...
17:00
If you're gonna go bet Br- Bronny James, pick anything else. I don't care. Literally anything else. Go up, go up to the roulette wheel and put it all on double green.
17:06
It's a better bet than Bronny James Rookie of the Year. I- Ugh... I just wanted to, I just want- Well, it's-... just wanted to put a, the, put, put that out there, Ben...
17:13
the point being, uh, no, it's, uh, it's well worth talking about, and it's also the point being just because a, uh, a specific market is wide open does not equate to you as a bettor just going out and betting the longest shot simply because, oh, well, there's uncertainty, and it's up in the air, and you will go and bet.
17:26
And remember, this is a guy who averaged five points a game off the bench for a bad college team last year. Like that- Yep... those are just the facts, uh, as far as Bronny James. And I'm rooting for the kid.
17:34
Um, I think we are. Like, I'm rooting for him. And I think we all, yeah, we'd love to see, especially, I mean, you can't even imagine how hard it has to be for the kid, right?
17:39
You know, given the circumstances, given your dad, all that. Uh, you wanna see success, but it's, it's not gonna happen right away. Yeah. Not, not the way to bet this.
17:47
However, there is one very interesting award market that, uh, has, has really started to get shaped in, and that's largely because of the debate we had going into the end of last year, Rudy Gobert versus Victor Wembanyama for Defensive Player of the Year.
17:58
A lot of conjecture, right, and a lot of, uh, a lot of Wemby bettors are still kind of, are, are still sort of saying, "Hey, another block by Wembanyama. Is, is the NBA gonna recognize that?"
18:07
Well, even though, you know, Gobert wins it, uh, going back to the end of last season, now the expectation is it will, this, this will be the sophomore year where Wembanyama fully takes the mantle for Defensive Player of the Year.
18:17
I've seen him priced as high as minus 170, 180, um, here at DK. Kelly, is your, you're certainly having to pay a tax, and that's- Yeah... a lot to pay on an award market, uh, as we're what?
18:25
Uh, three months out from the season even starting. Yeah, I was, I was expecting this to open around even money, maybe minus 110. I, it wouldn't surpri- it wasn't gonna surprise me if he was odds on.
18:36
It, the first place that opened up was MGM, I believe, and it was minus 250 is what they opened up with. [laughs] Yeah. And now we have some other books that are starting to post this.
18:45
You're gonna get, you're gonna get this market rounded into shape a little bit, uh, better. Uh, minus 170, I believe, at DraftKings right now is where he is at for Defensive Player of the Year.
18:54
Gobert plus 750, and then you get Chet Holmgren, Ben, have a bi- at a buy-in 12-to-one a piece.
19:00
Look, I, I've talked about a long time, Gil and I have talked about a long time, we were planning on having Wemby Defensive Player of the Year bets heading into the season. Um, I did bet him MVP when that opened.
19:09
I think this is very interesting to monitor.
19:11
It, it, it's all about price a- and I'm not saying, I'm wa- I'm gonna watch where these numbers move because as you see more and more shops opening this, they're opening them at a little bit longer odds than where we saw MGM first enter the market with.
19:24
So I think if you are looking to bet Wembanyama Defensive Player of the Year, there's no reason to rush. Wait till more books open up.
19:30
Let's see how this, uh, kinda rounds into shape, uh, uh, uh, across all the books over the next couple months before the season starts.
19:37
I might have a bet before the season on him, Ben, but I think at this number, if I knew it was gonna be -170 was the best I could get, it would have to be a p- just pause, wait, hope to get something in season at a little bit better number.
19:50
Um, but it's close.
19:51
If it gets down to -130, [laughs] -140, something like that, I'll probably be grabbing a, a piece heading into the season because I think there is, there, you rarely see this with NBA awards, but I do think there is a potential reality where he does go from -170 and that's the cheapest price you see on him all season long.
20:09
Sure. I think he is, he does have that skill. The mentality of the sports books as well, especially if you're setting that thing at -250 without even taking a bet- You want no action...
20:17
is an obvious sign to me, like, we would rather write a kajillion tickets on Rudy Gobert and have- Yep... all that exposure than take one big bet on Wembanyama at a fair-ish price. That's kind of how I interpret that.
20:27
Mm-hmm.
20:27
You know, and at the same time too, like you can, you could make like, uh, d- you could make some great cases, and you haven't been able to get num- uh, numbers on these guy- I mean, you wanna tell me you're betting Jaren Jackson Jr.
20:37
18 to 1, Giannis at 20 to 1? Yeah. [laughs] I, I mean those are, those are not bad bets in my opinion, and, uh, this is, it, it might, you know, the opposite, right?
20:46
This might be the only time all year you're gonna be able to get something th- that long on those guys. Could be very true as well. A win total market-wise we've had, the win total's out.
20:53
DK's had these posted for about five days now. Vegas books have just posted them as well. Kelly, you have been, uh, it's been on your list for a while- Yeah... waiting, and, uh, you did trigger one bet here.
21:01
Yeah, I, I bet one. The, uh, look, I think it, it's always, it's always a little fun to me year to year of how much, uh, like always around this time is when we get win totals, awards get posted.
21:10
I felt like last year, Ben, I had a list of probably six bets that I was ready to fire on as soon as stuff opened. They were near numbers that I expected on and were bets right away for me.
21:20
Just not the same this year, win totals and awards. Not, I, I made a couple bets, but nothing that, that, uh, nothing I'm going crazy over.
21:27
I was looking at the Spurs over, was getting in- interested to see what their win total was gonna be set at. Was set a couple wins higher than I thought it was gonna be, so backed off of that one. 35 and a half?
21:36
Uh, yeah, 35 and a half. I think actually the way I'm gonna approach that is when we get alternate win totals open, we talk about it a lot in the NFL. Alt win totals, just as valuable if not more in the NBA.
21:47
That's one I'll probably still bet, but I'll just be- I'll bet over on the alt high, uh, just, just banking on them having a ridiculously good season, uh, hopefully. Um, I'll probably make that.
21:57
The Grizzlies I might get involved with still as well, but where I actually ended up going to is at the bottom of the board here, [laughs] and it is with the Brooklyn Nets.
22:05
We talked about this a little bit with Drew Dinsick earlier in the week. There are a couple teams out there, the Nets, the Wizards, possibly the Blazers. Man, they're g- they, they're gonna be packing it in early.
22:15
These teams are very devoid of talent, and especially the Brooklyn Nets. That roster is really, really weak.
22:21
And when you do have someone like Cooper Flagg, uh, coming up in the NBA draft next year, this is backed, this is not this past year. There is- Right. We're back.
22:28
Yeah, there is something actually worth chasing in the NBA draft. Uh, but obviously you gotta deal with the lottery system still.
22:34
But there's gonna be some incentive for some of those teams that you're seeing with those low win totals- Yep... to go low here.
22:39
It is so funny how the bottom of the NBA standings win total-wise, it seems like odd makers can never price these guys low enough. It's just the reality- Yeah... of tanking in the NBA.
22:46
We'll start our NFL talk next, break down the AFC South on the other side. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back here on the Friday edition of A Numbers Game with Kelly Pidlin.
23:02
I'm Ben Wilson. We'll start our NFL breakdowns, the rest of our AFC division previews here in just a second.
23:06
Uh, Kelly and I were just watching, uh, random beachgoers at the, uh, at Troon Scotland just kind of walk through the fescue apparently and onto the course, so I mean- Well, you get- That's cool... I mean, what?
23:17
You get a, you got a train track rolling through. I'll tell you the one thing I didn't, I didn't know or didn't remember I guess from 2016 was the, the airport, like the, the, there's a, there's- It's awesome...
23:27
literally an airport that's like right behind the golf course. So like late, late in the round yesterday, they kept showing planes just landing [laughs] like right- Awesome... I think it was, I think that's- Yeah...
23:37
17 or 18 that was right there. Yeah. Great stuff. I mean, and, now you're not gonna get a suntan out there on the beach. It's just no, uh, this is no Happy Gilmore, uh- Right, yeah... sort of situation here.
23:48
Uh, but at least if you go to the beach you can potentially walk on.
23:51
Uh, some of the, as- I just wanted to bring up some of the strokes gain data that did just come out here, Kelly, for guys that have wrapped up their rounds. Shane Lowry today gains 2.69 strokes on the field on approach.
24:00
That is number one so far of guys who have finished their second rounds.
24:03
He was, uh, Lowry was pretty much average with the, with the putter today, and so, which was a good sign for him because he was so good with the putter yesterday.
24:10
Comes back to earth, yet was still two under for his round, seven under, plus 180 tournament favorite. Scottie Scheffler actually lost strokes on approach today, which would definitely surprise you- Yeah...
24:18
but he gained, he gained a lot of it back with the putter today.
24:21
Just kind of shows even with, uh, Scheffler in tough conditions, not at his best today based on what we're used to, he still goes back-to-back 100 par rounds to be right there in contention.
24:30
T4 at two under par, and he is second on the odds board at about plus 360 right now. So those are some of the strokes gain data coming out.
24:37
But, uh, vintage Scotty I would say for one, uh, and then even, even with the poor a- approach game by his standards.
24:43
And then two, the fact that Shane Lowry, uh, the advanced numbers do look so good for him has gotta be a very good sign if you were betting Lowry here going forward. Yeah, that, he is tough.
24:51
Uh, he's gonna be tough to figure out going forward, uh, for round three, round four, because my initial instinct w- would say e- even though he was about level on putting today, what did, what did he gain, six strokes or, or something [laughs] with the flat stick yesterday?
25:03
Almost, almost five yesterday.
25:04
Yeah, like you would still expect that to regress a little bit over the weekend, yet the guy's clearly got the wind, the conditions, the course figured out on, better than anybody right now.
25:13
So I, I, I don't really know that I'll be- The appra- we figured the approach game would be so important based on the conditions.
25:18
Lowry Between yesterday and today, I'm just doing my calculator here with the decimals, fi- uh, five and a half strokes gained on approach over the first two rounds.
25:26
Yeah, it's been absolutely- Like, if you're gaining five and a half more strokes on approach, you're winning the golf tournament if you're Lowry. It's just a question of can you...
25:32
And he's been a little bit wayward off the tee, but we've seen that off the tee has not really mattered as much. Uh, the fescue is definitely playable. Lowry hit some brilliant shots out of the fescue today.
25:41
Yeah, I think it was, uh... It was interesting. It was interesting.
25:43
I, I meant to text, uh, to you about this, but it was interesting h- hearing some of the comments and reading some of the comments that came out, uh, from, from some of the players yesterday, 'cause it was... I...
25:53
You know, some of them seem to have been confused by the wind and the direction, while there were others that were saying, "No, this is kinda what it's been the past couple days."
26:01
I, I know there was some on the coverage talking, talking about that, how the wind had kinda shifted a little bit where, the direction it was coming from, uh, uh, compared to the days prior.
26:11
But, you know, Shane Lowry, I think he had a good comment when he, when... Had, uh, has played this course multiple times, came here for a couple weeks ago for a practice round.
26:18
Uh, said the, you know, said the weather was basically so bad and all over the place while he was here playing a practice round.
26:23
He was like, "I got a feel for every d- every wind direction I could possibly see and what it's gonna do, and what it's gonna do to my, uh, to the golf ball when I'm playing here." Yeah, no question.
26:32
And it's, for certain guys who haven't figured that out, like, it is so stark, the contrast between guys at the top. Uh, we watched it happen to Cam Smith yesterday, just looked lost all day.
26:40
Former Open champion winner, uh, who is, uh, in all likelihood going to miss the cut here, uh, with, uh, barring something crazy happening for him in this late afternoon window.
26:48
Uh, we'll keep you updated as we continue on this second-round coverage of the Open Championship. For now though, Kelly, it is NFL division talk time.
26:55
We'll do some power ratings here, our top five and bottom five later on in the show, but, uh, we've been talking AFC here throughout the week.
27:00
We'll go to the South, uh, where Kelly is still getting over the, uh, the Jaguars not winning the division from last year. Uh, but, uh- Brutal... we're here, we're, we're here to, here to make it all back. And I...
27:09
We start at the top with the Houston-Jacksonville, uh, comparison really more than anything.
27:13
Because, you know, Houston goes from worst to first, and now just as the discussion came with Jacksonville last year, it was how do you handle being in a new role?
27:20
Texans are the favorite at about plus 105, nine-and-a-half win total. Uh, Jags eight and a half on the win total, plus 275, and, uh, we start there, and also with the idea of is there a third team?
27:30
Do the Colts feel live to make a run at this division? Also at eight and a half win total, uh, at plus 310.
27:37
At least for me, I s- I rated Houston one, Jacksonville two, Indy three, but the gap is definitely a lot closer and, and, and is probably, I, I'd say slightly closer than maybe these odds would indicate.
27:46
It's just a matter of both Jacksonville and Indy have glaring weaknesses and holes that you wanna see proven before you can really get on board.
27:54
That's kinda how I, I view the start of the season with both of those teams. Um, I agree. I think that Jacksonville,
28:02
especially after last year, I think Jacksonville, you've seen the problems with your own eyes [laughs] a little bit more. I think we are kinda at a point with, uh...
28:12
You know, I, I'll just speak offensively, 'cause de- defensively they've got some of their own, uh, some of their own issues. But I think offensively there's...
28:18
We're kinda hit the point where, okay, Trevor Lawrence has to e- either...
28:22
If this is what you're gonna get from Trevor Lawrence going forward, I think it's gonna be hard for this team to be a true Super Bowl contender, uh, at any point.
28:29
If the guy can take a, take a jump to another level, uh, I think that changes, but it's just something I'm not worth betting on at this point, Ben. Um, and, and I don't really know where they rank.
28:39
I do think this, this, this, uh, division is very interesting this year coming into it. I don't know where... I, I know I've heard some people betting them to win the division.
28:46
Um, I know there's some people that think they're fini- we're, we're talking them finishing third or, third or fourth possibly in this division. I think, I think all those are realistic.
28:55
I think what we've seen the past couple years, um, Jacksonville should be up there. But man, I, I, you know, I am pretty high on Anthony Richardson. I, I, I was very high on him last year coming in.
29:07
I think from what we saw in the brief glimpses last year is there's potentially something special in, in Indianapolis at the quarterback position.
29:15
Um, I don't think that would lead me to betting any of the team numbers though on Indianapolis. If anything, it, it, it's probably...
29:21
I haven't bet it yet, but I'll probably will have a long, you know, a longer shot MVP ticket, uh, on Anthony Richardson heading into the year. I just think he has that kinda upside.
29:29
And if he does, you know, you're looking at that at, like, 40 to 1, right, Ben?
29:33
Like, I would rather bet that at 40 to 1 than any long shots, you know, alt over their win totals, or win the division, or anything like that.
29:40
Because if he's really playing that well, that's where the team's gonna be at. But he's in, he's going to be in the, in the running for that kind of award. Sure.
29:47
The interesting dynamic I just noticed when you look at the positional rankings here, you have, honestly, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Tennessee, all three of them have...
29:55
You know, Jacksonville's the closest to, you know, right at 50/50, middle of the pack. But I would argue all three of those teams have below average rosters on the whole.
30:02
But if you just, if you're specifically looking at Jacksonville and Indianapolis, what is fascinating about their defenses is that the secondary is by far the biggest weakness.
30:10
Houston, who is the favorite to win this division, has basically punted on the running back room. The offensive line has been a mess. And yet despite all that, we saw the success last year because of the ability of C.J.
30:19
Stroud to air the ball deep down the field.
30:22
You now have these bad secondaries in a division where you're gonna have to slow down Stroud at some point in these divisional games if you want to overcome them to win the division.
30:28
So as much as I have, I have concerns about the offensive line for Houston, I, I do, uh, imagine that all the, all the injuries, all the shuffling, at a certain point you can't get away with that forever.
30:38
And they do feel pretty one-dimensional, the Houston Texans on offense. Yet at the same time, you know, where, where Jacksonville and Indianapolis, their strength lies in the front seven.
30:47
It's not at all in the secondary. And so that's, I think, where a lot of our concern for being, for having a lot of conviction comes into this, Kelly. Where there is certainly a path.
30:55
If, if that cannot be figured out by the two teams trying to take over the top spot from Houston, Jacksonville, and Indy, you could see a lot of those intra-division games where all of a sudden it's like, all right, Stroud throwing for 350 and four touchdowns because- Yeah...
31:07
the secondary is just so poor.
31:09
And then it becomes, well, even if Anthony Richardson is great, even if Trevor Lawrence, you know, plays to the potential and up to the ability of the contract he was given this off season, well, what does that really matter if your defense is that bad and the rest of your offense is so weak?
31:21
And that's what I keep coming back to, and it's why I don't have a bet, uh, in this AFC South. I don't, I, I don't either. Yeah, I think, uh, you just laid that out quite well.
31:28
I think a couple things to run through with the Texans, right?
31:30
First, for everything that happened last year and what we thought about them heading into the, heading into the year, and the one thing we can all agree on, I think, is C.J. Stroud's awesome.
31:37
I think, I think right away, Ben, like, I'm not expecting... I, I, I know we always try to be cautious with second-year quarterbacks. Are they gonna take a step back after having a great rookie season?
31:47
I don't think that's happening with C.J. Stroud. I think this guy really is all that, i- is that good. He is a top 10 quarterback, uh, in the league and is gonna continue to play like that.
31:55
So, okay, where did they overachieve last year? They were... They had a great record of one-score games, seven and three. Yeah, that's usually something you expect to regress a little bit. But they like...
32:05
The, the injury luck, you're talking about have, uh, you talked about some of those injuries. The injury luck they had on the offensive line was the worst in the NFL last year. Correct. So some of the...
32:13
You know, if you can have a little bit healthier year, which is just luck, heal- healthier year, they should have a little bit more consistency on that offensive line.
32:21
So I, I think that's a big deal and I love what they've done. I love what they've done bringing in Jameel Hunter. I think the defense gets stronger, has...
32:28
Well, the pass rush is a lot scarier now, uh, with him in there for, for Houston. I like this receiving corps.
32:34
I think this team wins the division, but Jacksonville and Indy scare me enough that it's not worth making a bet on for me, either to the win total or the division.
32:44
But I think what you laid out is an extreme- e- extremely likely possibility that way. In these in-division games, it is Stroud just slinging the ball all over these other teams. Sure thing.
32:53
Well, the, the, the total roster point as well. I mean, Houston, I had 30th out of 32 teams coming into last year total roster.
32:59
I have them 10th now this year, and you naturally ask yourself that question when you're talking about pre-season projections. Is that too much buying into the hype, right? Mm-hmm.
33:06
Are you making too much of an adjustment?
33:07
But there were a lot of adds, and it is fair to say this is a top five wide receiver group now when you bring in a Stefon Diggs, who has so much to prove now, but still clearly has a lot left in the tank, uh, to that, uh, to that element.
33:18
Should also be pointed out, I think, why we're not as high, you know, maybe not as bullish on Houston just to go out and win this division going away. Sixth toughest strength of schedule- Yep... uh, this year.
33:26
It's, it's, it is not a fourth place schedule anymore for the Houston Texans, and a new role now for them to approach heading into this year. Uh, we'll talk some AFC West as well when we come back.
33:35
We're continuing our AFC NFL previews today here on A Numbers Game.
33:39
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:06
Right now at our new look vsin.com, which is optimized for mobile, our Lou Finaccaro has his best bets. UFC fight night coming up this week at Ianderova versus Lemos.
34:15
A breakdown as Lou is gonna join us in about 15 minutes here on A Numbers Game. We also have college football win total.
34:21
Best bets are out from Steve Makinen as the college football guide gonna be coming out on August 1st. Excited for that.
34:27
We'll have a, a full, uh, guide reveal show as well I'll be doing with Adam Burke in a couple weeks' time as well. And full breakdowns on the NBA win totals that are now out from our Zach Cohen.
34:35
It's all on the website, along with betting splits, exclusive articles, odds by state betting tools, and betting guides. Back here on Numbers Game with Kelly Bidlin. I'm Ben Wilson.
34:45
We're finishing up our AFC South talk, then on to the AFC West here, and then we'll do some power ratings into hour number two.
34:50
And we'll just finish with a brief comment on the Titans, 'cause Titans fans are probably like, "Whoa, we're in this division too, Kelly". About us. Uh, what about us?
34:56
Uh, I, I think it's, it's safe to say the unknowns and the, like, just the identity of that team when you go from a, a smash-mouth defensive mind in Mike Vrabel to now the, you know, the new wave thinking of a Brian Callahan.
35:09
First year head coach who is going to be one of just three head coaches in the NFL to also call plays, and I have a lot of doubts about, uh, the actual success and cohesion of that.
35:19
Because it's been proven with the, really, the exception of the Kyle Shanahans of the world, it's really hard to do that, Kelly. To do both, do both jobs really well when you haven't done it before.
35:27
Uh, so I have doubts, but you also can't argue with the wide receiver room being the strength of the Titans, and Will Levis there certainly, uh, the, the physical stature is there to make a leap in your number two.
35:37
It's just can that offensive line be any better? Yeah.
35:40
And what does the defense now look now that Vrabel's gone, who was able to, you know, coach up a group that didn't look all that impressive on paper, but got so much out of them? Yeah, I think that's, uh, it's well said.
35:49
I think there are, uh, I'd have to say concerns with the, with the head coaching, uh, situation. After...
35:55
I, I mean, Vrabel, a g- a, a guy who bettors rallied ar- around for so, you know, for multiple years, uh, of him in Tennessee. Um, I think there's concerns at the head coaching position.
36:06
I think you have questions on the defensive side of the ball, major questions and concerns. And they, and then [laughs] you have, you have questions on the offensive side of the ball I have no idea how to answer.
36:14
But I, I mean, I think there is a, I think there is a chance that, yeah, Levis, who, this big arm quarterback who we thought coming out he could find some success because he has that k- type of cannon, um, you know, maybe puts it all together wi- with adding some of these receivers.
36:29
I could also, though, see this completely failing. I... Like you said, offensive line some, uh, some concerns. I mean, I think that receiver room looks great if you're playing Madden in 20, you know, 2021.
36:39
[laughs] Like, I, I don't know- Yeah... I don't know how great you're feeling about every b- every single one of those guys right now. So I...
36:46
Look, I think by default they're the fourth team in the AFC South for me, but I, uh, uh, what, I said to you off air, I, I think this is the most intriguing division in the NFL to me right, uh, right now.
36:56
'Cause this is, I think all four teams, I, I, I think are, we could see have wildly different seasons from what expectations are.
37:04
And it's been a division that has been very, very hard to figure out, I mean, just game to game individually, you know, over the last few years as well.
37:09
I think that's what makes it really, uh, fascinating on top of that.
37:12
Uh, then we go to the AFC West, which you, by all these divisions, Kelly, really feels like the widest delta between top and bottom Uh, where Kansas City, uh, we'll get to our power ratings later, but I don't think I'm gonna be, uh, you know, shocking anybody by saying I have Kansas City power ranked number one heading into this year.
37:28
Uh, and Denver is in my bottom five, and, and that's kind of where it becomes interesting of the pricing now. I mean, Chiefs are such...
37:34
are the biggest favorite of any division, minus 230, and that's where the question becomes of where is there any value here?
37:40
Since you likely would say, well, division odds, probably not, unless you think Kansas City really takes a step back.
37:45
Uh, outside of a running back, you know, room that doesn't have much depth, and I, I d- I definitely have as a bottom half of the unit, uh, kind of, type of position group, everything else is above average to me.
37:54
Even with, you know, even though the wide receivers, you could kinda make the case either way, I still like what Kansas City has brought in, and at the very least believe they will have a few more options for Patrick Mahomes at quarterback this year.
38:04
Uh, so it's a team that you really can't poke holes in, and no reason for me to believe they will not win yet another division title.
38:09
It's just a matter of, uh, is there any value at all in KC when they have shown that they're not really too concerned about the wins early in the season?
38:16
They just wanna be playing their best football when we get to December and January- Yeah... with such a lofty win total at 11 and a half. Well, I, I think, uh...
38:22
I, I, I caught this note, wrote it down when I was going through Clete Tietze's, uh, uh, NFL preview guide, which is a great read. You should check it out- Great read, yes... along with the recent one.
38:30
Um, how about since 2000, Andy Reid teams have gone over their win total 75% of the time? [laughs] Pretty good. Like, that is insane.
38:38
11 seasons with the Ch- i- in his 11 seasons with the Chiefs, teams have gone over their win total nine times, and the two that didn't, last year and 2021 are the only years that you're talking about.
38:50
Uh, and e- each of those was just by half a win.
38:52
So [laughs] you're talk- I mean, like, we, we can sit here and say there's no way to bet it, but man, history would tell us otherwise, that they keep e- even the expectations that Vegas sets for them, and oddsmakers set for them, they keep going over those on the win total.
39:04
So I, I mean, look, as a division as a whole, I, I mean, they're the number one team for me. It's not even close.
39:09
I don't even thi- I don't even expect this to be as competitive, uh, i- of a division as even as it was last year when it [laughs] when, when it wasn't very competitive. Um, this is...
39:20
I did make one Chiefs bet, I guess related bet. Xavier Worthy, I did bet Offensive Rookie of the Year as soon as those got released. I mean, I, I bet him at 18 to 1. Uh, bet him 18 to 1.
39:28
I bet him also to lead rookies, uh, in receiving yards. I actually think that's, that's probably the better bet, uh, at plus 850.
39:36
Um, just 'cause, just 'cause Rookie of the Year might i- in all likelihood is, is going to lean towards a quarterback for the bulk of the season.
39:43
So I think you could bet him plus 850, uh, y- to lead rookies in receiving yards. I made both of those bets, uh, on Xavier Worthy. And like you're saying, just 'cause we...
39:50
I mean, we saw what this offense was, and Mahomes was able to do last year with ba- you know, barely any help in the receiving corps. So just adding anybody is gonna be big.
39:59
Um, a- and Xavier Worthy with some top-end speed, I, I think is, uh... there's some bets there to be made around him. Yeah. I completely agree with you on that.
40:07
And if it goes back to when Mahomes and the Chiefs were first ascending, and you thought about how bad the defense was, and special teams to an extent on that.
40:14
I look at my, you know, the position ratings now on Kansas City. [laughs] I mean, this is a, you know, a top 12 front seven, top 12 secondary. Special teams is really good.
40:22
You have one of the most reliable kickers in the game in Harrison Butker. Rest of their, uh, their unit has been very, very solid and, uh, that's where there's are very few holes to poke into.
40:30
Most people would tell you if there's somebody who could potentially surprise, it is a team getting a lot of hype in that division. It is the LA Chargers. But as...
40:37
And I thought I'd be higher on them, just like most people are, w- with the assumption that Jim Harbaugh's going to come in, year number one, there will be this immediate turnaround, uh, for a team that has been in so many close games, but struggled in the clutch moments over the last couple years under Brandon Staley.
40:50
But as I dug deeper into that, into that roster, you, you kinda realize, like, y- you, you always knew Jim Harbaugh would have a lot of work to do.
40:57
But it's probably more than maybe the perception is because, like, the front seven, there's been a lot of atrophy there. I keep thinking, yep. Second, secondary is below average. I mean, there's nobody...
41:06
The pass catcher room- Uh, uh, uh-... is only New England I have worse than the LA Chargers coming into the year. Yep.
41:11
Uh, and, and running back will, will not give the same sort of help to Justin Herbert as he had in years past. I see that as a bottom 10 unit as well.
41:17
Uh, all leading me to say the gap is a lot wider than I initially thought it would be when I went ahead and did my numbers.
41:23
I, I'm glad you said that, 'cause I, I feel like the things I keep hearing this off-season, there, there are... I think the hype is way too high o- on, on what this Chargers team is going to be. I, I'm not saying that...
41:35
A- and it's, it's not that I'm an anti-Jim Harbaugh guy. I think he will turn around this team. I think the expectation to do it in year one is completely unrealistic.
41:42
I, I mean, everybody who basically scored a touchdown for the Chargers over the past four years is off this roster now. [laughs] Like that's just... I mean, like, Herbert, Herbert is great.
41:51
He's a great quarterback to have there, but you, you have stripped so many of his high-end weapons away from him that I think this is gonna take a little time to put this all back together, both on the offensive side of the ball and the defensive side of the ball.
42:03
Um, you know, on defense, for years we've been talking about this team adding such high price superstars that haven't really been able to mesh together and work together perfectly for this squad.
42:15
I just think it's gonna take a year or two for this Chargers team to figure out. Now, I still have them second in the AFC West. I do too. I don't know about you, I still have them second.
42:23
But that probably sa- tells you more about how I feel about the Raiders and the Broncos. You know, what's funny, I, I had...
42:27
So just doing the power ratings, I have the Chargers as team 20, and I have them second in the division. Yeah. [laughs] There you go. That's the perfect example.
42:32
Like, I have the Raiders 26, and I already mentioned Broncos are in my, in my bottom five here. [laughs] Uh, so that, that just speaks to where the rest of this division is at as a whole.
42:39
The one other thing I did notice with a lot of how these, these schedules came out, 'cause a lot of times people, you know, are kind of obtuse on this. They only wanna look strength of schedule.
42:46
And granted, on the surface, this is very e- it's a simpler schedule for the Chargers. They have the second easiest in the league as being a last place team, yet, uh, 27th in, in rest edge.
42:57
And I notice with a lot of these teams who have, uh... You know, it kinda goes both ways. If you have a really tough schedule- Yeah... in general, you're getting a, a big break as far as your rest edge.
43:04
You're getting a lot of, you know, a lot of, uh, extra days compared to your opponent, more games, uh, you know, say, off a bye, fewer games on a shorter week.
43:12
Where the opposite is true if you're a team like the Chargers.
43:14
So sure, you get, you know, technically an easier schedule by win total, but you got a lot of short, you know, a lot of short weeks or teams off of byes facing you, uh, which to me makes it, it kind of, it, it washes out and you can't really say it as simply as, "Oh, well, they've got the second easiest strength of schedule.
43:27
They'll be fine." Uh, to me, it's not as simple as that on LA. Yeah. I'm usually, uh... I feel like I'm usually the guy that's always ripping on schedule makers no, no matter the sport.
43:36
E- th- there's always a couple every year, right, where a team's gonna have an advantage or a couple teams are gonna be at a disadvantage. I just don't think there's much you can do about it.
43:43
But, like, what you're talking about right there, Ben, I, I think is a good example of, uh, like these, these NFL schedule makers, man, they put a lot of hard work [laughs] into this stuff, I think.
43:51
Well, yeah, they're trying to balance it, yeah. And, and, yeah, balance it out basically as best as they can. Well, honestly, only two teams to me really got screwed with, you know, tough schedules and bad rest.
44:00
That's Denver and that's San Francisco. Mm. Uh, one of those teams is well-equipped [laughs] to handle that. The other is not.
44:06
We'll talk, uh, in our second hour when we have some time about the bottom two teams in this division, Las Vegas and Denver.
44:11
As far as the teams who have very good favorable schedules, both easy schedules and good rest edges, Atlanta far and away number one, and then it's Philadelphia two, and actually Chicago number three, with the Jets at number four.
44:23
Even though the Jets have all those primetime games, they actually have from a pure rest perspective actually a really good schedule.
44:28
Those are four teams that are, uh, far and away gotten the best draw as far as their schedules this year in the NFL. We'll talk some more NFL in hour number two on the other side.
44:36
Our pal Lou Finicaro joins the show to break down some UFC fight night when we come back. [upbeat music]
A Numbers Game
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