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Jul 19, 2024
A Numbers Game | July 19, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | July 19, 2024 | Hour 2
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. So one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of the Numbers Game live from downtown Las Vegas Bar Canada at the D. I'm Ben Wilson in for Gil here for the second hour of the show. Kelly Bidlin with me as well.
0:18
We've got a couple of great guests coming up, Lou Ficara to talk some UFC fight night in mere moments. We'll also have Paul Stone who's in town to bet some game of the years in college football.
0:27
Couple of notable sports books have dropped those within the last few days here in the college football landscape.
0:33
Uh, we, we are also getting a couple of tweets here, mostly people commenting about, uh, my, my shirt choice today, and in particular Jonathan Von Tobel, who was on, uh, Follow the Money today saying, uh, he can see all of my, uh, chest hairs.
0:43
To which Femi Abefe has rightly pointed out- [laughs]... that is the dress code here at Bar Canada. So thank you Femi for having my back. That's just how we roll here at Bar Canada. Oh, man. That's funny.
0:52
Kelly's like, "I have nothing else to add. That's all, that's all for me." No, I was right there with you yesterday, but now I'm a little bit more buttoned up today, so yeah. Gotcha.
0:58
Uh, Rob Marino, uh, from our- Let him hang, Ben... our Circa control room has my back on this as well.
1:02
Uh, anyway, we'll also update you on round two of the Open Championship continuing from Royal Troon in Scotland, but we don't wanna waste any more time.
1:08
Live on our progressive guest line, uh, the outstanding contributor to VSiN on all things UFC as well as About Business Podcast, it is Lou Ficara who was listening to our last segment, Kelly.
1:18
And, uh, Lu- Lou, we don't have to get into it in great detail, but you do have grievances on the schedule makers, uh, [laughs] that you, that you did want to at least, uh, at least share.
1:25
But great to see you as always, sir, as you're doing your NFL prep and, uh, excited to get into some UFC with you as well. Happy to do it. Thanks so much for having me on, guys.
1:33
No, the, the schedule makers have a tough job, no question about it. Uh, but to me, my biggest grievance i- is that the players are getting the, the back end of this thing.
1:43
Uh, and who is getting set up perfectly is the end, is the shield, and those that give money to the shield, the networks, who want great games when they contract to have a Monday or Thursday night game.
1:58
And all that has pressure, and that pressure comes down on players with lack of rest or quick turnarounds, et cetera, et cetera. No question.
2:06
I just, I love how we got, we l- got Lou, uh, fired up on our Skype line, and he was just like, "Kelly, we gotta talk about the schedule." [laughs] Uh, just immediately, but, uh, no, great stuff, Lou.
2:13
Lou, what's your, uh, what's your favorite book you got behind you? It's qui- it's quite a stack that's going on back there. It is a good stack. That book there is My View From The Corner from Angelo Dundee.
2:23
I grew up, uh, a, a, you know, just idolizing Ali, and then I found out about Angelo Dundee, and he's really been, uh, y- you know, the, the, the me- uh, I don't know him, but he's been the mentor in the fight game for me since I was a little kid.
2:40
And, uh, boy, a lot of the vernacular that I use, uh, and the slang that I use in the fight game come right out of that book. That's wonderful.
2:48
Nobody more locked in than Lou as far as weekly UFC betting, and we go to the Apex in Las Vegas this week for a fight night, which has a lot of tightly priced abouts here, Lou.
2:57
The, uh, the weigh-ins will come in shortly, uh, in about an hour here today, but some things you've already kind of dipped your toes into the water on.
3:04
At least for the, uh, the main event of this fight night, it is the, uh, the Virna Jandiroba, Amanda Lemos bout.
3:09
And I have seen the dog Lemos take some action here, even though this is pretty tightly lined in general down to about plus 110 consensus in the market there on Lemos.
3:17
Uh, for people who are most intrigued, first off, in the main event of this fight night, what can you say about, uh, why the support is coming in for the dog here on Lemos and what, uh, what that fou- that bout will look like?
3:27
Well, it's a, it's a women's bout at 125 pounds. Both, both women are ranked and highly ranked.
3:34
The winner of this goes right into contention for a championship shot, and they're both Brazilian athletes, both Brazilian fighters with a little different style.
3:45
Jandiroba, a little more premeditated, not as fluent striking on the feet, nor is she as defensively fluid against strikes on the feet. However, she's a savant Brazilian jujitsu practitioner.
3:59
She wants to envelop you, push you against the fence, trip you, get you down on the, uh, mat, and then find a way to grab an appendage or a neck and choke you out or snap something if she can.
4:12
On the other side, Lemos is a, a gal that has a little bit more UFC experience. She's been in with a, uh, more elite level of competition, and she's a little taller, a little bit longer, primarily a violent striker.
4:29
Now she can submit, and she can hold her own on the ground, but I don't think she wants to invite this fight to go down to the mat at Jandiroba's strength.
4:39
Rather, I think she wants to fight it at her forte, which is up on the feet at distance. And Lemos has profuse power. She's gonna try and get Jandiroba out of there early.
4:51
If there's one Achilles to Lemos' game is that she at 35 years old ha- has shown that she can tire at the end of fights.
5:01
So if Jandiroba can weather this first three-round storm and find herself in this fight late, it could get very compelling. But I do lean to Lemos who opened minus 135. There's been a little bit of money come in on her.
5:17
I just like her experience and the fact that she's been in with a, uh, a, a more, uh, developed and diverse, I should say, level of competition than has Jandiroba.
5:28
Yeah, best number you can find actually at Circa right behind us here, Lou, plus 120, uh, there on Lemos.
5:34
W- Because of that breakdown and, and about the ability, you have a favorite in, uh, Jandiroba trying to keep the, you know, keep this bout kind of on the feet, so to speak.
5:42
You're seeing this priced, uh, two and a half rounds on the total over/now. I'm seeing as high as minus 165 up to minus 170. Seems like a logical explanation based on what you laid out as to why that is the case.
5:54
Yeah, five-round fight here, and really f- with women's fights in a five-round fight, you're used to seeing four and a half. That two and a half's relatively aggressive, and I think it speaks to Lemos' power No question.
6:07
Now that is the main event coming up. Again, fight night this week from the Apex in Las Vegas as Lou Finicaro joins us on our Progressive guest line. Follow him at Gamblue.
6:16
Check out the About Business podcast, and you can also go to vsin.com. His full write-up on all of the fights coming up, uh, right now at vsin.com.
6:23
As far as some other, uh, bouts that have drawn your interest here, we go to the, uh, the featherweight, which will be 8:00 Eastern tomorrow night. Couple of, uh, fighters who've had some inconsistencies here.
6:31
You get, uh, Seungwoo Choi going up against Steve Garcia, and, uh, this is one that is, has seen some action toward Garcia, the favorite.
6:37
He's been bet up about 10 cents there, uh, in the market, Lou, and it's always fascinating to kinda try to get the breakdown when you have two fighters who have plenty of losses between the two of them and have struggled with that consistency, uh, there as, as they get set for that fight against each other tomorrow.
6:51
Yes, c- that's right. And, and Garcia has had the better recent run, meaning his last three years have been much more impressive. He's a Hispanic, uh, heritage, so you know, the Mexican fighter.
7:05
He, he's got a granite jaw. He doesn't begin to fight until he gets hit. He throws great straight jabs, but he has unbelievable power, and he really has bad intention.
7:16
An- and 80 perc- Of his wins, 80% have been via the finish, primarily striking. Seungwoo Choi comes in from South Korea. He's had to travel. He's also a long, tall striker. He's used to being the longer, taller striker.
7:34
In this fight he will not be, so that'll be an adjustment to him as, as well. He hasn't been overly active.
7:40
He's been, in fact, somewhat inactive, and I think the inactivity, the travel, and the fact that he has to come in and compete against a killer in, uh, Garcia that's finished fights, Choi has also been finished previously, uh, in his career.
7:56
And so I think that sets up relatively favorably for Garcia.
8:01
And in the, uh, VSiN digital magazine, I used Garcia as a parlay play because I have an aversion to minus numbers, and I teamed him with Miranda Maverick, who I think we'll speak of here later in the segment. Yep.
8:16
And she's a favorite, and that turns, uh, two favorites into a positive position. Very nice. Yeah, let's talk Maverick right now because she takes on Diana Barbosa.
8:25
And again, getting market support here was about $1.80 at open in Maverick, and she's now up to, I'm seeing minus 235, 240 there, uh, in the market, Lou.
8:33
So certainly a, a fighter who is getting a lot of market support in that one. Right.
8:38
No, we took this one with Maverick a week ago knowing that her price was gonna go up, and that was because she was originally scheduled to fight Tracy Cortez, who fought Rose Namajunas last week.
8:49
And so Maverick's had a full camp. She trains in Denver at elevation, comes to Vegas ready to fight, and because Cortez had to go to the main event last week, they bring in, uh, young Barbosa.
9:03
This is her second UFC fight.
9:05
She travels in from Brazil on short notice to take a gal with a full camp, and Maverick will be giving away size and reach in this fight, but she's a tiger and a dynamo, unrelenting forward pressure wrestler, and she's had that full camp.
9:22
And I think that wrestling will be kryptonite to the Brazilian jujitsu game of Barbosa, who is just being asked to do an awful lot. These short notice- Yeah...
9:32
fights, you endear yourself with the organization for future considerations, but it's a tough ask, and this is gonna be one tough ask for Barbosa against Maverick.
9:42
Kelly, as a former Missouri Tiger myself, I love it when we get the, uh, the Tiger vernacular from Lou. It always makes me, makes me smile. [laughs] That's right. Be on, uh...
9:50
I'll be, we'll be on, uh, we'll be on Maverick as a result of that. Uh, one more to break down here, Lou. This has been, uh, kind of all over the place as far as two-way action.
9:57
Bruno Silva, Cody Durden, which is at 8:05 Eastern as part of this fight night here. I've seen this kind of all over the place, uh, Lou.
10:03
Most books now have it close to a pick 'em, uh, with the, the two and a half heavily juiced to the over minus about $2 there. What do you make of, uh, a very busy week of line movement on that particular bout?
10:13
Yeah, it, it really has been. Bruno, uh, Silva opened, you know, -150, -160-ish. Um, and he is, he, uh, he's a well-rounded fighter. Power in his hands, great Brazilian jujitsu game. He can submit.
10:28
Uh, but in this fight he travels in. He, he's giving away about three inches of height to Durden, reach to Durden, and Durden is a, a wrestler...
10:37
I wouldn't say elite or world-class wrestler, but he's a very gifted wrestler who has cardio all day. So the size and the wrestling of Durden will be what attempts to dominate s- uh, Bruno Silva in this fight.
10:52
And, and Silva's got power in his hands, and he's got a great submission game. If there's a chink in Durden's armor, he has been submitted three times previous in his career. So he's gonna have to watch out for that.
11:04
But to me, this fight will be even going into the third round, and when the third round begins, that's where I believe Durden's, uh, uh, not only his aggression, but his cardio.
11:16
I think that's the foundation of this handicap for me is the cardio for Durden and the wrestling pressure. I think that's his advantage. You can see all the full write-ups from Lou on our website, vsin.com.
11:27
Check out his podcast as well, the About Business podcast. Always great to see you, Lou. Be well, man. Thanks so much, guys. Good luck everybody.
11:33
Lou Finicaro with us on our Progressive guest line as we kick off hour number two here on A Numbers Game.
11:39
When we come back, we'll go through our power ratings in the NFL, top five, bottom five for both Kelly and I when we return.
11:44
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game[upbeat music] vSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
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12:05
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12:16
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12:30
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12:34
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12:46
I'm Ben, he's Kelly, here from the, uh, from the shield of Bar Canada, uh, at the D. We're watching the Open Championship. It's a great day here to be a sports fan.
12:53
You got the Hungarian Grand Prix, free practice now underway. Uh, Shane Lowry in the clubhouse, seven under par, he is your leader. And, uh, Daniel Brown, gotta, gotta say, have to be impressed, Kelly.
13:02
Thought he would, uh, he's, he's really pulling off the, the Lee Westwood, uh, the fellow Englishman, uh, puffy, puffy vest in the- [laughs]... in the cold here today.
13:10
Uh, yeah, that's kind of giving me Lee Westwood vibes. But, uh, Brown, only one over on his round after the 350 to one shot to be first round leader was six under yesterday. Uh, he's at 500 par.
13:19
And it, it seems like in the last hour there haven't been many birdies out there, but a lot of the, you know, a lot of guys are at least stabilizing here, which pars feel like a very positive thing at this point, uh, at this stage of the tournament as the weather's gotten a little bit worse.
13:31
Yeah, this is, um, a, a very, first of all, very impressive, uh, by Daniel Brown to s- to stay right there. And just saw from Data Golf a little while ago, a pl- plus seven, the projected cut line now by them. A seven.
13:44
Seven over, yep. Wow. Well, would not, uh, would not shock me the way this is going for guys further down the board. Rory McIlroy, uh, has just, it's been a, a wild start for him.
13:53
McIlroy, uh, who will be right on that cut line, uh, he, I believe, is about to hit his fifth shot on a par five from the fescue. Uh, he's eight over- Yikes... for the tournament, one over through three.
14:03
Uh, T-111, and that is, it gives you an example of for these guys not at the top of the leaderboard, I mean, it's just a struggle, uh, just to make par.
14:10
But that's the other thing, I mean, our final groups don't tee off, I think it's, like, 4:16 PM local time in the UK, which is... Uh, 4:27, excuse me, is the final tee time.
14:21
So we're not gonna know till very, very late, and that's why there's still a lot of golf, a lot of poor conditions to be dealt with, uh, by a lot of these guys.
14:28
Other, just other guys we've been noticing here, Ludvig Aalbert one over through his first five holes today. He's at five over, right on the current cutline. Bryson DeChambeau even through five as well.
14:38
Justin Thomas, eight over through 11. He's all the way down to five over. Whoa, jeez. So, yeah. JT. JT, I know. What, what's the biggest surprise to you, to the negative? Who, I guess, who's the biggest surprise?
14:49
Biggest surpri- biggest surprise to the negative, as convenient as it is to say McIlroy, I mean, it's the- That's what I was, I was trying to decide if there, if there's another answer to that.
14:59
It's like, that's the obvious one. Um... I, I think it's gotta be Rory. Not that I was betting him or anything, but it's still gotta be Rory to me. Yeah. Yeah. Y- you know what? I, I got a, I've got a, uh...
15:10
There's probably a lot of people are gonna say what after I say this, but, uh, for how hot Aaron Rai has been recently. Oh, yeah, golf hardos will... They, yeah, they were on him.
15:18
Six over today, he's four over through eight. Yikes. You know, I guess in that same tone, I would say even though the form hasn't been great, but, you know, he's a guy who knows how to play. You have those flipped.
15:27
Four over for the day, six over for the tournament. Yeah, six over for the tournament, four over, uh, through eight on his, uh, his round today.
15:34
Um, the ba- the way he started and the way he was in one of those late afternoon, early round waves. I mean, Matt Fitzpatrick, what a brutal round today.
15:42
Seven over for Fitzpatrick, who was one under, uh, through round one, and you figured he was going to be in, in a really optimal situation. But he loses f- how about this, Kelly? Minus 4.34- Oh, man...
15:52
strokes on approach today. Right. He lost almost six strokes tee to green, did Fitzpatrick. Yep. I mean, that's, that's hard to do, honestly.
15:59
He's the worst of guys who finished, Fitzpatrick, by over a stroke, the worst approach player in the field today. Okay, here's a, here's, here's gonna be a fun sweat for me.
16:07
Aaron Rai over Matt Fitzpatrick in a matchup that I have. And they're both six over. They're both six over [laughs] and Rai's still- Oh, man...
16:14
Aaron Rai's still on the course, whi- which is probably not a good thing for me. [laughs] That's not great. You know, not, uh, not as bad as I... It was, what, the PGA f- I forget which PGA. It was a few years ago.
16:24
I had a, um, it was a matchup that involved Cameron Champ, uh, and it involved Thomas Pieters. And I think I was fading Champ. Champ was in the clubhouse at, like, 15 over. He'd missed the cut. Yeah.
16:38
Pieters goes out and shoots, like, 81, goes 16 over, and I lose the matchup. I won. Oh my gosh. [laughs] I was just like, "You gotta be freaking kidding me." Oh, that's wild. Anyway, uh, Tiger Woods has finished.
16:48
He's six over for the day, 14 over for the tournament. He will not, uh, be seeing the weekend. Will Ti- will Tiger Woods. And, uh, I'd also say, yeah, Wyndham Clark, uh, in the bottom five here.
16:57
Wyndham Clark, 16 over par, nine over today. Uh, Wyndham has really fallen off as far as his form. We'll have some thoughts on that coming up as we wrap up the show.
17:05
For right now, though, time to get into our power rankings. I'm excited to bring this back here, Kelly, as we, as we fire up the Open here.
17:11
Both top five and bottom five NFL power rankings here on our final day together on this show. Let's do it. Plug it in. Power on.
17:19
Hey, it, it has added meaning today with the, uh, the, the worldwide Microsoft outage, so... Uh, yeah. Hopefully everybody's- Power on... hopefully everybody's doing okay, uh, at home with that.
17:27
We definitely, uh, hurried in here this morning and double-checked, uh, all- Yeah...
17:30
our systems and everything because, uh, man, I was t- I was talking to a couple other friends just, uh, in the broadcasting b- uh, business around the world and, uh, they were, there was Things happening with systems that they couldn't understand.
17:41
I see it's affecting some local casinos around town here in, uh, Las Vegas as well Flights are a mess.
17:46
The, the Sphere I can't tell whether they're making a joke out of it or if they actually had a problem, but they have like an error message up on the Sphere, uh, right now- Oh, that's fun... I believe.
17:53
So yeah, problems everywhere. I know it's dealing with flights and, and 911 systems and everything around there. So they... Yeah, not really a j- not much of a...
18:01
Not much to laugh at when, uh, when it comes to that stuff. So hopefully everybody's out there doing okay- Sure thing... especially those traveling. Yeah. Well, you, you were worried would I...
18:08
Would the pout- would the outage affect me? Would I be, you know, I'm... Would I- would my machinery be working today? But luckily I was up You did worry me a little bit. Ben always answers me.
18:16
When Ben doesn't respond to a text message from me, it concerned me. Yeah. It concerns me a little. Anyway. And if you had Kelly solo today, oh boy, it would've been like- Oh, yeah...
18:23
full open play-by-play, uh, for two hours. Friday, Friday, Friday- [laughs]... basically. Uh, power rankings time then. We'll start...
18:29
These, you know, top five, I don't think there will be a lot to talk about in the top five. I think the bottom five is gonna be more interesting here, Kelly. But I had to go Chiefs one, shocker. Ravens two for me.
18:38
I'm really high on the Ravens. I have them above the 49ers coming in, uh, with the Eagles four. Dolphins, I guess, would be the surprise for me at five. Not a team I was expecting to have there, just... You go...
18:47
But going through the rosters, I mean, the, y- really the offensive line and the front seven are the only issues for Miami.
18:53
But the strengths of their team from secondary being top five to both running back and wide receiver being top three with the sort of personnel that they have, uh, gives me the, the belief that...
19:04
You know, with a schedule that is, uh, top 10 as far as easiest strength of schedule this year, uh, relatively favorable here. While there are some concerns I have for them to the back half of the year, they have...
19:12
They check off all the boxes, Kelly, as that team that gets off to a fast start. Then it becomes, okay, what, what happens down the stretch?
19:17
But at least to start off, to me, it is a team that Miami, while I don't have a ton of confidence in them, say, in the postseason, I do like them as a regular season team based on how the roster is constructed this year.
19:26
And they did, uh, just narrowly round out my top five just ahead of the Detroit Lions, uh, this year for me. Okay. I like it. I like it. That was... So Lions were your sixth team? Lions were sixth. Yeah. That was...
19:37
'Cause we usually, you know, when Gil and I, you do this through the season, it's usually top 10. Right. So it is, it's always, it's always interesting to see what's that last team you left off, right, at any point.
19:45
So, uh, my- Yeah. Bill- Bill's just missed the cut for me as well. Bengals as well. Yeah, they were all, all bunched in there close. Yeah.
19:50
My top five, uh, and this is, uh, I'm just gonna read them 'cause we didn't get, uh, the graphic got, uh, screwed up a little bit here. My top five. Chiefs number one. Um, I, I guess you said like this is...
19:59
I think it's only a hot take at this point. After, after last year, it's only a hot take if Chiefs aren't number one to me. I mean, I- [laughs] Pretty much...
20:05
with all the concerns that we, that we, we had about that receiving corps last year, and then to actually played out that way on the field and they still won the Super Bowl, i- it's just amazing. So Chiefs one for me.
20:15
I have the Philadelphia Eagles number two. I expect a massive rebound from this team, uh, this season, uh, this season.
20:21
From what the coaching staff that they've overhauled with the coordinators that they've brought in, uh, with the s- I do think, uh, there are not many running backs that I, I'm gonna sit here and say think I, I think make a big difference.
20:32
I think Saquon Barkley's gonna make a big difference. There I think there's a, a lot of designs that Kellen Moore can do to make this offense even more explosive. We saw where their defense was hurt last year.
20:43
Secondary was the major issue. That is really what they shored up, uh, in the draft in, i- in the off-season. I really like what this Eagles team's gonna be bringing. I put Eagles, Eagles two, 49ers three.
20:53
I think they... You wanna tell me 49ers you got above the Eagles, that's fine. I think those are the top two teams in the NFC, uh, for me. And then I go back to the AFC, um, and that's where I went.
21:03
I went A- uh, the AFC North teams we talked about yesterday. It is Bengals, and then it is Ravens, uh, for me. I have a division bet on the Bengals, so I gotta put them above the Ravens. [laughs] You have to.
21:11
Uh, but the Ravens round out that top five. Six for me, and this was very tough to leave them out, is the Buffalo Bills because I love Josh Allen.
21:19
I think anytime you've got Josh Allen on the field, you are live, uh, to win a lot of games. So they would be my sixth team. Okay. Bottom five. This is where the, the debate gets a little bit more interesting.
21:28
I thought, I kind of assumed New England would be further down, but they, they were actually the, uh, the, the starting point of the bottom five here. New England 28 for me. Um- Stunned. I am stunned by that...
21:36
I have Cardinals 29, Broncos 30, and then Commanders 31, Giants 32, which is mostly roster based. Like, I think the reason why for me is that New England still has enough pieces on defense. Yeah.
21:45
It's a really good front seven, a really good secondary. Whereas, you know, Commanders graded out, you know, bottom half of the league in every single positional group for me.
21:52
But there's also a huge caveat with them, [laughs] which is you've got a really, really good head coach, Dan Quinn, who's a d- a good defensive mind coming in.
22:00
And who's to say Dan Quinn can't come in and turn all that around?
22:02
It's just from the very start, that's why I have Washington so low, and that, they, they completely fit the bill to me, Kelly, as this year's Houston if, you know, a lot of things have to go right.
22:11
But if you see, uh, any, any sorts of those expectations, uh, exceeded. And, and to me, the Giants, it's, it's b- I, I was, uh, uh, I was surprised at just how bad.
22:19
When you look at bottom five O line, bottom five wide receiver room, terrible quarterback situation, a bad running back group as well now that you don't have Saquon Barkley anymore.
22:28
Secondary I would argue the worst in the league. Front seven's the only way you can hang your hat on. I don't see that winning you any games this year.
22:34
Uh, that's why the Giants are actually dead last for me, and that's one where you tend to one to win, have the fewest wins this year. Tough schedule as well, uh, for the Giants.
22:41
We'll talk the rest of our power rankings coming back in a little bit. Also, we'll get Paul Stone on to talk some games of the year in college football next.
22:47
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Into our final half hour here on a numbers game live from downtown Las Vegas. Bar Canada at the D. Super thrilled to get Paul Stone on here in a second.
23:02
We're gonna talk some, uh, mostly college football with Paul, but he's also a, you know, great, uh, golf bettor as well, Kelly. And, um, I, I hope Paul's card is going well. I hope it's going better than mine.
23:10
Um, well, I, I was gonna say, for us, it's, uh, it's been an adventure so far out there today. Uh, it's the open championship. None of us had, uh, had Daniel Brown in, uh, you know, top five after the first round.
23:20
Brown in the clubhouse, five under par. He does finish his round, uh, as he now is a two shots back of Shane Lowry, who's in the clubhouse at seven under par. Justin Rose has dropped a shot down to three under.
23:31
Rose with a one-shot lead over three players, Billy Horschel, Dean Burmester, and the tournament, uh, pre-tournament favorite, Scottie Scheffler, who you did add this morning, Kelly. At 200 par. Mm-hmm.
23:40
That's the latest, uh, as it stands right now. The, uh- That Collin Morikawa top 10 keeps looking better and better though- He's, he's getting there... as the day goes on.
23:46
[laughs] Morikawa, Collin is, uh, hey- He's one over... finding his way. He's not out of it. I mean, that's T 13 right now. Yeah. He, he's in the clubhouse. Very few, uh, red numbers out there today.
23:56
So good, uh, good on Collin Morikawa. Low round of the day, I mean, Billy Horschel, Jason Day, and Patrick Cantlay, all three under today. Uh, pretty good. Pretty good stuff for Day. Yeah, that's pretty impressive.
24:06
Well, we'll welcome in Paul Stone right now. We'll see how Paul's card is going. We go on to our progressive guest line, professional handicapper, uh, joining us, great VSiN contributor over the years.
24:14
Paul Stone joins us right now, who is in town, ready to make some Game of the Year bets, some signups for contests.
24:19
Paul, first off, how is your Open Championship card, uh, going on what's been a, a crazy, windswept first couple of days there at Royal Troon? Yeah, I tell you, good to be on with you guys, first of all.
24:29
You know, y- there's still work to be done to see who makes the cut, but I'm mostly a matchups guy. And, um, y- so, eh, you know, you gotta, y- you know, you gotta go all four days.
24:41
[laughs] There's a lot of ups and downs on these matchups, but right now, not, not all that great. You know, I'm hoping, uh, I've got five matchups, and I'd love to win three of them, but, uh, still a long way to go.
24:53
It's just really interesting looking at this leaderboard. I mean, Justin Rose, although he's played well i- in the Open Championship before, his, his current form, he's not been playing well lately.
25:04
Billy Horschel's a guy who's well known for his lack of success in the major championships, not just the Open Championship, but all the majors, Horschel has struggled.
25:13
Uh, and he's up on the, uh, you know, on the top five or so. So really, really interesting tournament.
25:18
There's a lot of attrition out there, a, a lot of wind, and I think it's gonna be a great golf tournament, great finish on the weekend. Yeah, no question.
25:25
I, apologies to a couple guys who also were three under but way down the board. Jorge Campillo was, uh, nine over. Goes eight, goes your classic 80, 68, Kelly, 'cause why not? Uh, six over for the tournament.
25:36
Yeah, obviously. Yeah. And then Gary Woodland, uh, one of Kelly's favorites. Yeah. We can, we got, uh, three under today to get to two over. Gary Woodland, uh, tied for 22nd.
25:43
Uh, so a lot of those, if you bet top 20s, you'd like to at least be, uh, I'd say probably no worse than three over right now to feel like you got a shot out there going into the weekend.
25:51
Uh, we are mostly here, though, to talk about some college football with Paul Stone. As, uh, you were out here, there are Games of the Year to be bet.
25:57
I, first off, on the ecosystem with that, you know, some books are posting Games of the Year as early as late January, Paul. Uh, a couple in Vegas, notably South Point, will be releasing their Games of the Year today.
26:07
Saw West Gate release theirs, uh, a few days ago and, and had a number of games that had not been priced, uh, anywhere in the market.
26:12
What have you noticed as far as just the, the tightness within those respective lines now that that ecosystem has grown so much?
26:19
And so many people, you've been one of the OGs, but so many new people now are into the Game of the Year markets and betting them really, really heavily.
26:28
Yeah, I mean, it's just, uh, you, you have the aggressive operators, first of all, which is what I like. I, I think FanDuel, uh, we were talking before we came on.
26:36
I think within two or three weeks of the end of the previous season in late January, they posted like 10 Games of the Year, uh, Texas-Michigan, Texas-Oklahoma, those kind of games.
26:46
So really aggressive to get those games out there, and I'd bet probably, um, close to 50 games by early May.
26:54
So I've done most of my work, most of what I do in the off-season i- is not so much any of the, you know, the Heismans, not really my cup of tea. I don't really bet the national championship.
27:06
Don't bet a whole lot of regular season win totals, but bet a lot of Games of the Year. And with these aggressive operators, you know, I get out there early, uh, early and often and, and, uh, try to get the best number.
27:17
That's what it's all about is getting a number better today than you're gonna be able to get the, uh, the week of the game.
27:24
When everybody comes in a little bit later and starts posting their Games of the Year, there's usually not a whole lot of, uh, you know, a lot of it's copy and paste.
27:32
They're not putting up, uh, you know, wildly different numbers. So I just don't do a whole lot of, whole lot of work. It'll be interesting to see how many games I take today at South Point, but I wouldn't- Yeah...
27:41
anticipate more than four or five. Gotcha.
27:43
And what's also fascinating too is just to see when these games are up for so long, how, you know, how the markets tend to, uh, adjust over time, and we have a list of some of the bets that you have already made here, Paul.
27:52
I was just pulling up, uh, one that I think is fascinating because Florida's gotten more talk to me schedule-wise than anybody.
27:57
It's been widely perceived to be the toughest schedule maybe in college football history with what Florida has this year. Uh, they though, they have a number of interesting spots.
28:06
You, you took them in one Game of the Year against Texas, and it's just kind of that classic case of, you know, just because a team is, has a really tough schedule should not totally discount the talent that they have.
28:16
And by all accounts, Florida has a really talented roster. It's just that schedule's gonna be a gauntlet.
28:20
So how did you approach trying to pick off some of the individual Florida games this year, which you obviously did one of them here, Florida catching 18 against Texas on November the 9th?
28:30
Yeah, I mean, uh, just looking at this game individually, I mean, you, you hit it, uh, you know, the, on, nail on the head as far as their schedule. I mean, it's a murderous road schedule.
28:39
The consensus most difficult schedule in the nation, uh, and Texas is certainly a piece of that. But should the Longhorns be laying 18 points to a pretty good Florida team the second Saturday in November?
28:52
And that tends to be kind of the point in the season when some teams tend to exhale, sometimes let their foot off the gas a little bit.
29:00
I mean, looking at the Longhorns last year, uh, first couple weeks in November, they had narrow, uh, three-point victories, I think, against both Kansas State and TCU.
29:09
A few weeks before that at Houston, uh, they win 31 to 24, thanks in part to a, a favorable spot that Houston fans probably still don't care to discuss. Uh, but they were a 23 and a half point favorite in that game.
29:23
So the Longhorns, they were fortunate to make the playoff last year. They're not invincible. It just seems a little bit too high, so I like the Gators there plus the points.
29:32
Talking about Florida, you do have to be concerned when you get later in the year.
29:36
There's a lot of speculation about Billy Napier being on the hot seat, and, you know, he could really be on the hot seat by November 9th And, um, you know, might, might not even be their coach.
29:47
That wouldn't be out, you know, out of the realm of possibility, so you have to worry about those things. And I actually played against Florida in an earlier game.
29:56
I took, uh, Central Florida plus six, uh, there at Circa over Florida, uh, there earlier in the season. So Florida's gonna be an interesting watch. They do have some talent, but they do have such a difficult schedule.
30:08
And no question on that as Paul Stone joins us to break down some college football games of the year. I, I remember when you were in town and we were talking, you brought up one of these games that you bet. It was at 10.
30:17
It has moved a little bit here in the market.
30:19
A lot of people are intrigued, at least the situational spot, for a very rarely seen Alabama trip to Camp Randall in Madison, Alabama at Wisconsin early in the year, third week of the season. Uh, you got that at 10.
30:30
It s- it's down to eight and a half here, Paul. What did you see in the spot specifically as to why you see the Badgers keeping this thing within a one-score game? Well, you know,
30:39
you, first of all, Alabama, it's gonna be Kalen DeBoer's first road game as Alabama's head coach, and he, he's been, he's been around a while, so you know, that's not the, it's not his first rodeo.
30:49
But Alabama, only 5-9 the last three years as a, in a way, a favorite. And then you've got this Wisconsin team. They're on a under- home underdog at, at Camp Randall very often, uh, only twice in the last 10 years.
31:04
Actually, one of those times was last year against Ohio State. They were catching 14 and a half. Actually got the cover, only, uh, losing by 14.
31:13
Wisconsin's got a new, uh, quarterback in Tyler Van Dyke who transfers over from Miami. Um, and I actually expected this line to be closer to seven. The 10 is still available.
31:24
I believe it's at, uh, at Westgate, if I'm not mistaken, who put their games of the year up a, a couple of weeks ago. So, uh, you can still find, if you shop around- Sure thing... you can find Wisconsin plus 10.
31:34
I certainly like the 10 points, if you can find that, uh, with the Badgers over Alabama. One more here, Paul, before we let you go.
31:41
This was a game that saw Colorado about a three-touchdown favorite, should've lost last year in their rivalry game against Colorado State.
31:47
Uh, this one now priced, uh, not as aggressively as it was a year ago, but you still, you can get, uh, seven and a half here with the Colorado State Rams.
31:55
Uh, and that is a bet that you were on here looking to take the dog in that rematch of one of the craziest games in the college football season from 2023.
32:02
Yeah, just a great game last year, and you look at this, uh, season's Rocky Mountain showdown, this is the first time that these rivals have played in Fort Collins since 1996.
32:15
So the last 24 meetings, none of those have been played on Colorado State's home field. They're gonna be really excited to get Coach Prime and the Buffalos there in Fort Collins.
32:25
You look at the situa- the scheduling spot, Colorado's gonna be off a road trip to Nebraska.
32:31
They're gonna have their first ever Big 12 game at home against Baylor waiting on deck, and then Colorado State on the flip side, they host FCS Northern Colorado the week before.
32:43
They'll only play UTEP the next, uh, the next week, so real good, uh, scheduling dynamic there for Colorado State. They led that game last year for most of the year, led 28 to 17 midway through the fourth quarter.
32:56
Colorado comes storming back, forces overtime. I think they won the game in double overtime 42 to 34. But Colorado State can throw the ball.
33:05
That's Colorado's, uh, vulnerability, defense, period, but especially in the back of that defense. Colorado State threw for 397 yards last year. I expect something similar this year.
33:18
They've got a great wide receiver in Tory Horton. He had 16 catches for 133 yards last year, so I like Colorado State plus the points. Good stuff. Thank you as always, Paul. Great to catch up with you.
33:28
I'm sure we will be seeing you in person, uh, here soon. Thanks as always. Good deal. Thanks for having me. Have a great weekend. Absolutely. Final segment for us coming up.
33:35
One baseball bet for me, and then we'll finish up our NFL talk on the other side. [upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:54
Right now on vsin.com, check out Steve Mackinnon's best bets for college football win totals, as well as our NBA best bets on season win totals out right now from our Zach Cohen.
34:02
And in case you missed our spot with Lufe Nacaro, best bets on the UFC fight night coming up in Vegas tomorrow night, as well as exclusive articles, odds by state betting tools, and betting guides all optimized for mobile and available at vsin.com.
34:15
We are back for the final time here on a numbers game with Kelly Bidlin. I'm Ben Wilson. Kelly and I were just, uh, they're showing the graphic of the actual size of the postage stamp there, Royal Troon- It's wild...
34:23
in relation to some of the, the standard PGA greens, some of the greens at St. Andrews, and you're just going, "How can any, any mortal, uh, hit that thing?"
34:31
It's, it's basically a, a, a half court, of, of basketball, an NBA half court. It's about the size. I mean, it's easy 'cause there's no wind. I mean, oh wait, no, there is wind at Royal Troon.
34:41
[laughs] Sorry, I, I got my- I would kill... I got my wires crossed.
34:43
I would kill to grab a 12-pack of beer and go out there, uh, go out there for, like, an hour and a half, uh, with you, Ben, and just try, just, just see, just see what we could do with that. It would be ugly. Yeah.
34:54
As somebody who, uh- And all I'm talking is tee shots, 'cause I'm not playing out of those- You're not doing anything... damn pot bunkers- Yeah... uh, right next to it. That would take forever.
35:00
Um, as somebody, I had a, I hit with a super high ball flight, and so I just, I ha- I have, like, ter- If I ever played, which obviously we'd love to, you know, that's kind of a bucket list trip.
35:09
You get, like, a Scot- Scotland, Ireland golf trip going. Mm-hmm. But the terror I would have
35:13
when I'm like, I know every ball I hit is just gonna go straight up in the air and then if I'm into the wind- And you're, yeah, yeah. [laughs]... right back at me. Like, I, like, I don't know how to hit the stinger.
35:22
Like, what am I supposed to do out here? Like, I'm sure a lot of people are, feel the same way. But that's why we, we, it is a, it, it's a, it's something we discuss on Long Shots: Golf Betting Podcast.
35:31
It's, uh- There we go... it's, uh, it's something we discuss from time to time, but probably not enough. Like, the ball flight is huge.
35:38
It, it, it, but it is a very difficult thing to, in my opinion, to handicap, uh, somewhat because a lot of the, some guys can, can change their shot shapes, right? And other guys really can't.
35:50
Other guys [laughs] really, it's just kinda how they hit the ball. Well, Phil, I mean, Phil Mickelson was the most notable of this, who always lamented his-... per- his potential ability because of his high ball flight.
35:59
Right.
35:59
He goes out and wins an Open Championship and came damn near close at Royal Troon, losing by three to Henrik Stenson, who was, yeah, in a, in a matchup that, uh, any other year Phil probably wins that tournament going away were it not for how great Stenson was.
36:11
And that, but we- So that's a great example... we talked earlier, uh, Joaquin Niemann, uh, a very low ball flight. There were some guys that were, uh, that were looking at him this week because of that.
36:19
And, uh, I just, I had to ask you off the air, uh, the what's one more than a quadruple bogey? The quintuple bogey. The quintuple. The eighth bo- That's what, uh, uh, Joa- Waco just, uh, hit, yeah. At the park.
36:29
What the... What happened? Not Niemann. I don't know. I looked up, I was like, "Whoa, he's about to go from one under to four over." So he went, well, he went bunker to bunker to bunker to bunker.
36:40
That, uh, that's not what you want, but it can happen. Say that again. Bunker to bunker to bunker to bunker? Was that four bunkers?
36:46
There were four c- Uh, well, I think it was dou- it was two shots apiece in two different bunkers. Oh, G- oh my gosh. So, like, he left the first one in.
36:53
Then I think he had to go out, then I think either he shanked presumably, or he had to go out sideways, went to the other bunker on that par three, then left that one in, so it was four total bunker shots.
37:03
Good for these guys. I mean, I guess he's still, in theory, still like, you know, in contention at least to make the cut and then, you know- He's four over, yeah... I mean, could make some good money still.
37:11
Some of these guys that are like 10 over par, if I'm getting stuck in one of those pot bunkers, like after shot one or two, like I, I'm just picking up my ball- You're out...
37:18
and throwing it out of the fairway and be like, "Penalize me whenever you need to do." What was it, the, the Phil one from a few years ago where the ball, he just went ahead and hit his moving ball on the green?
37:25
Oh, yeah. [laughs] Which got a lot of old men frustrated, uh, to say the least. Um- Was, was that in the PGA? Yeah. Was that a major, right? It was a major, yeah. And it, it was not going well for Phil.
37:35
Or you, or you just, uh- That would, that was great. Yes, I would probably do that incidentally. You just John Daly it and, and withdraw again after round one of a major, which John Daly did again, um, after yesterday.
37:43
See, 'cause for me it's like, oh, you know, you, if you're a... So I'm like an 11 handicap, so it's like, "Oh, well I can't count more than a, you know, triple anyway, so I can just pick up. I'm good."
37:52
[laughs] You can't really do that in major golf. It's not, uh, not exactly how it works. Yeah, not exactly. Uh, I'll ask some final thoughts here. Uh, baseball, it gets back underway today.
37:59
Exciting, because we haven't had daily baseball now, uh, in five days. I just had one play f- today and it's, uh, the market has really been anti-Dodgers over the last week.
38:07
But I would argue, Kelly, there's no team who got the All-Strike at a better time than the LA Dodgers, having gotten walked off back-to-back games, two of their three against the Detroit Tigers going into the break.
38:17
Uh, you talk about limping. I mean, it was, it was being limping, uh, with, with some help from the training staff to get to the All-Star break for the Dodgers.
38:24
But they open up a interleague series at home tonight against the Boston Red Sox. I thought the opening price was fair. Dodgers minus 140. Market disagreed.
38:31
This is down to minus 118 at multiple books, and that is a buy price for me. Uh, this is a, a, kind of the perfect reset for LA. And, and honestly, their most consistent starting pitcher has been Gavin Stone.
38:41
Uh, has really, really good numbers, and that's despite getting shelled his last outing before the All-Star break.
38:46
I like Stone against Nick Pivetta today, even though, uh, look, Pivetta has, you know, worse on the surface numbers, but better peripheral advanced stats.
38:54
Yet, uh, the Dodger lineup certainly has the edge here despite all, by how good Boston, how they have overachieved pre-All-Star break.
39:02
Uh, it just seems like market's getting a little bit aggressive here on that move toward the Dodgers today. They are home.
39:07
Uh, sometimes the situational, uh, handicap element of this fresh out of the All-Star break not being really factored in here, and I think a lot of bettors are just saying, "Well, we're gonna keep betting against the Dodgers and getting underdog prices as long as we're able to."
39:17
And I don't see that lasting forever, to say the least. Yeah, it makes a lot of sense. Uh, yeah, it's, it's always, it's always fascinating to me.
39:25
A, there's, there's only a few teams out there, Dodgers one of them though, when you, when you start hearing things like market con- consistently moving against them. Like, that is a- It's been-...
39:32
pretty shocking thing to hear... like 20, 25 cents a game. Yeah. I get it when they're, you know, $2 road favorites. Right, right. But... And they're playing terrible baseball, but this is different.
39:40
This is, uh, kind of a prove it series against Boston, who's been a good team. But expectations now to, uh, just another stratosphere here for the Red Sox.
39:47
That's my one play for today, minus 118 o- on Gavin Stone and the LA Dodgers over Nick Pivetta and the Boston Red Sox.
39:54
Uh, we'll just finish up here some thoughts, Kelly, on the, on the NFL here as we wrap up the show today. We, we're doing our power rankings. We did not get to your bottom five. I also wanna let you- Oh, yeah.
40:01
That's right... uh, get into that right now.
40:02
But, uh, my, yeah, I think the, the most shocking thing when I did my own numbers, and again, this is just going into where the positional rankings really, really high still on the Patriots defense, but I actually did not have New England number 32.
40:13
I'm assuming a lot of people will. They are favored to- Oh, yeah... lose the most games. So I think that was more than anything for me, uh, the shocker there.
40:19
Patriots 28, Cardinals 29, Broncos 30, Commanders 31, Giants 32. And, and look, Giants, I mean, 10 to one worst record. Those all... Now look, the unders in All Thunders have been pounded. That's a bet you're on, Kelly.
40:30
Mm-hmm. Uh, so it's not like we're breaking any new ground by saying, "Oh boy, the Giants are terrible."
40:35
But even when I did the deep dive on the rosters, even knowing how many respected bettors are on the Giants under, I didn't think it would be this bad, is kind of my takeaway on the Giants.
40:43
And, and it looks really, really ugly across the board. Yeah. And, and what's kind of funny is after looking at yours and looking at mine again, I should probably even move the Giants a little further down.
40:52
Uh, but yes, I did have Patriots as the worst team, uh, in the NFL this year, and I have bet them to have the most regular season losses or fewest wins, however you wanna say that. Um, I have bet that.
41:04
Uh, and then 31 for me is the Denver Broncos. Yeah. I think where there's...
41:09
You know, we kind of hinted at it earlier when we were talking AFC West, where it's, it's [laughs] okay, Charger- Chargers, we think there's a lot of questions about, but they're still the second-best team in the division to me.
41:19
But it's really because of what you're seeing, uh, if you're watching the home scene, uh, uh, on your screen. And that's, look, I think the Raiders are a bottom five team, or at least flirting in that territory.
41:27
I could be wrong on them. I, I'm not gonna sit here and say, uh, that I've got them completely figured out when nobody else does.
41:33
But I, man, I think, Ben, I think there's a chance, uh, that train gets off the tracks real quick, uh, wi- with, with Las Vegas and, um, Davante Adams.
41:42
I mean, I think it, I think it's criminal that he's even still stuck on this team.
41:45
We should, we should have certain exceptions for when, uh, you know, a guy like that wants to come play [laughs] with, play with a team, uh, to play with one of his best friends, it makes a lot of sense.
41:53
And then when that guy leaves a year later, man, Davante Adams that good of a wide receiver on this bad of a team is, is hard to watch. Can he just be, uh, donated back to the Packers? Right. Exactly. Yeah, there, yeah.
42:02
Just help a guy out. As a Packer fan, yeah, you would, you would like that. Um, they're t- yeah, they're 28 for me. I had the Giants- I had them, uh, I had them 26 for me, the Raiders. Okay.
42:09
So they, I had Raiders 26, Carolina 27. So those are st- yeah, very, very close to my bottom five.
42:14
You, I was gonna ask you about Carolina, so yeah, I did, so Raiders 28, Giants 29 for me, although I think you could I, I, I think these three teams between the Raiders and the Patriots I could put in any order and it would be fine for me.
42:26
I went Giants 29, Panthers 30, Broncos 31, and the Patriots 32. Um, the Panthers, yeah, I wanted to ask you where, where they were at yours because you've seen...
42:36
You've heard differing opinions on this team, uh, uh, from, from respected bettors.
42:40
I mean, I, I mean, I know there's some, some groups out there that like this team over their win total, uh, even like them in possible contention, uh, for that division. I, I just don't see.
42:50
I, I think the roster has gotten overall a little bit better from last year, but man, I think, I think there's... This might be overreacting to one t- one season, Ben. But I'm not really worried about [laughs] C.J.
43:01
Stroud taking a step back. And I'm not saying Bryce Young can't, uh, can't b- uh, take a big step forward, but man, I'm gonna have to see it first before I really start believing in what this team can do offensively.
43:12
So, uh, until I see that, I think they're gonna be right in this bottom five group for me. Um, and Broncos a little bit the same thing, right?
43:19
I mean, that team has just been, it- completely dysfunctional since Sean Payton's got there. Um, it... Can Bo Nix be a big addition for that team? Maybe.
43:28
I, I just don't, I don't see them playing all that much better, uh, than when Russell Wilson was, w- Russell Wilson was there last year. And I, it...
43:36
That's another one that it just might take some time, but they're, I think they're gonna be pretty bad this year. Well, we- So 31 for them... you know, we thought the defense too would be what carried them. Yeah.
43:44
Uh, we found out very quickly the defense would not be what would carry Denver last year, and I don't, I don't really see much improvement on it either. Me neither. Yeah.
43:50
I have them a bottom five front seven, bottom 10 secondary, and it would be a lot worse if you didn't have a outstanding, arguably the best cover corner in the league right now in Patrick Surtain. Mm-hmm.
43:59
Uh, it could be a lot worse there for Denver, and they are one of the two teams, Denver and San Francisco, that just got the shaft from the schedule makers more so than anybody- Yep... um, in the NFL this year.
44:08
Great stuff hanging with you, man, though. I'll see you, uh, I'll see you Sunday on Lock That Bet Sunday. Live bet Sunday.
44:11
We will be crowning an open champion as we, uh, we'll probably have already done that as we hit the air, but still excited for it, man. If you liked two hours of us, check us out for four hours on Sunday.
44:19
How about four on Sunday? Uh, we've done all that we can do. If you're listening on radio, Gojo Angolic is next. If you're watching on VSAN, tune into Best Bets right after this. [upbeat music]
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