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Jul 1, 2024
A Numbers Game | July 1, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | July 1, 2024 | Hour 1
00:00
44:34
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Monday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube, TV. However you're taking us in this morning, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander.
0:19
It is the return of producer number nine, so much more than a producer, Kelly Bidlin, back from vacation. Good morning, sir. Good morning. How you doing, man? Good to be back. I'm doing, I'm doing great.
0:30
Wyatt Tomchek did a great job, uh, while you were gone. Sure he did. He did. It was great having him. Glad to see your face though, man. How was your trip? Thanks, man. It was great. It was great. It was refreshing.
0:38
Good to get out of town for a bit, uh, see some people. It was good, man. We had the LoJack on you, Austin, Texas, LA.
0:44
Austin, Texas, LA, was around, was in town using some comps here for in the middle of the week last week, so that was good. A little Resorts World, stayed there for t- a couple nights. Yeah, yeah. Oh, did you? Yeah.
0:53
Little staycation. Little staycation, yeah. All right. Bounced around, was all over the place. Kelly Bidlin, doing vacations right. Austin was awesome, though. I, that, that was... Austin is great. Great city, Austin.
1:01
Had a lot of fun. [laughs] It's g- Had a lot of fun. This just in, secret, Austin, awesome. Hotter than hell, though, Gil. Uh, y- Hotter than hell... a little humidity there. Yeah. Yeah.
1:11
Like, this, it's like, it's like Vegas, Miami combined for the worst possible things. I prefer humidity over this dry heat every time. It was like, it was like 99, 100 degrees with I don't know what percentage humidity.
1:22
Like, I was so sweaty, it was disgusting. Uh, it is July 1st, and as a, almost a tribute to July, we have two guests. Uh, we have Mark Borchardt on baseball, and we have Dalen Cuff on soccer.
1:33
Everybody else told us to go kick rocks. So, uh, Kelly and I, but we have plenty to talk about, uh, beginning with, um, baseball. Obviously, we're gonna get to this, uh, this June bet momentarily.
1:44
Later on the show, I'll have the most wins in the month of July, my pick for the most wins in the month of July. Uh, Wimbledon plays that remain coming up as well, Wimbledon futures, whole bunch to talk about.
1:56
We do begin, though, with, uh, a big congratulations from me to everybody who rode along, and it was a lot of you, on the Houston Astros most wins market for the month of June. Mazel tov to us all. We deserve it.
2:10
Yeah, you do. After what we went through a couple months ago, particularly, one out away from cashing a 65-1 on the Guardians, falling two games shy on the Guardians in May at 16/1.
2:19
But the Astros at 25/1 at, uh, at William Hill Caesars is, ends up dead heating with the Orioles, but it's an outright win at Circa at 17/1. What a day yesterday was, uh, Kelly. It was, uh, what a weekend it was.
2:36
The weekend started, we, Wyatt and I talked about this Friday. Weekend started with, okay, if the Astros go 3-0, we win at Circa, at worst it's a dead heat at William Hill Caesars. But if they go 1-2 or 0-3, we're out.
2:49
We're done against the Mets, who, by the way, these same exact scenarios applied to the Mets, um, going into the weekend.
2:56
If the, if the Astros ended up going 2-1, that's where it got interesting because at that point, then the Dodgers and the Orioles couldn't do better than 2-1. Neither could sweep.
3:05
And then you had five other teams that if they went 3-0, would participate in a dead heat as well. Talking about the Red Sox, the Mariners, the Brewers, the Diamondbacks, and the Cardinals.
3:14
And good God, if you dead heat but with more than one team, what's the, what's even the point of any of it? It's just so egregious. So what happens Friday night? This is how it starts.
3:25
The Astros go out, leave 14 men on base, go 2 of 14 with runners in scoring position. Bregman boots a ball, three unearned runs on a McNeil home run.
3:34
They get smoked by the Mets, had every opportunity in the world, and I'm thinking to myself, "Self, this cannot be happening again. How do you have 14 men on base, 2 of 14 runners in scoring position?"
3:46
Worst possible timing for that kind of, uh, for, uh, that kind of night. And so our proverbial back was against the wall right from Friday night on.
3:54
Silver lining of the night was quietly, while that was happening, the D-backs lost, the Red Sox lost, the Dodgers lost, so a couple of the dead heaters sort of sloughed off.
4:03
Next day, Framber Valdez is on the mound, and he just has a meltdown, and the, the Mets go out to a five to, a 5-1 lead after two, 6-1 after three.
4:13
And you're thinking to yourself, "Okay, well, maybe it's just the Mets month. We gave it another good run that's gonna fall short." But it was early in the game, right?
4:20
It was early, so there was still plenty of time to come back, and come back the Astros did.
4:26
Three in the fourth, three in the eighth on a series of spectacular at-bats by the Astros, culminating with Alex Bregman atoning for his sin the previous night with a boot.
4:36
He just has this unbelievable at-bat where, uh, he g- he fights back from 0-2, an 0-2 count, and ends up with the two RBI single, um, turning a 6-5 deficit into a 7-6 Astros lead, and they go on to win it 9-6.
4:52
And suddenly we are off life support, and there is life. And then also quietly, Mariners lose, Brewers lose, Cardinals lose.
5:00
So all the dead heaters are sloughing off again on a second consecutive day with one notable exception, two notable exceptions.
5:06
One, the Dodgers, who the Giants were about to beat again, bases loaded, one out in a tie game in extra innings, but then the Giants struck out and then fouled out, and then the Dodgers just made 'em pay for it with a touchdown in the top of the 11th.
5:20
They won it 14-7. And the even more notable exception was the Orioles just absolutely staved off the Rangers, held on for dear life, won that game.
5:30
So the Orioles were the only team of all the teams I mentioned through Saturday that went 2-0. What did that mean?
5:36
That meant that going into Sunday, it was very clear we needed an Astros win and an Orioles loss to win outright at Circa, to have a dead heat at William Hill Caesars.
5:46
Only the Dodgers could have participated in the dead heat as well if they beat the Giants on Sunday.
5:50
And the way it was laid out, Kelly, was perfect in terms of the schedule, which we could not have anticipated, which was- Astros-Mets in the morning. Right.
5:58
Giants-Dodgers as a sort of lunchtime game in the middle, and then the Orioles and the Rangers happen to be Sunday night baseball. Well, that was a perfect setup. You could possibly hedge later or something. Who knows?
6:10
Um, so I'm not a hedger by nature, but I thought to myself, "Okay, well, I have a couple opportunities to think about a hedge during this day." Yeah, yeah. All right, game starts. Um- Great plan going into the day.
6:20
[laughs] Great plan. By the way, on Friday, I also mentioned at the end of the segment with Wyatt, I'm like, "Oh, by the way, there's a little rain in the forecast for Sunday. Just keep an eye on that." Right, yeah.
6:28
All right. So first thing happens, the Mets put out kind of a semi-Facca line-up. See it-ish. Um, it's, it's not really their best line-up five through eight. So I'm like, "Well, I'm not hedging here.
6:39
I'm not gonna do that against a Facca line-up." Astros go up four to nothing, and we're like, "Okay, this is awesome."
6:46
Mets get two in the sixth, then two in the seventh on a two out 0-2 pitch, Brandon Nimmo parks a two-run homer, and it's four to four. And I'm like, "This cannot be happening again. Come on. Come on, gambling gods.
7:02
Come on. We deserve this." Four to four, middle of the ninth. Remember that rain? The rain comes. Two hour, 47 minute delay. Now, think about this delay.
7:17
Why it's agonizing not only is because this huge bet is on the line, but
7:21
you know the whole time that when the rain delay happened, middle of the ninth, that in order to have a chance to win the game, you still have to get through the bottom of the ninth. Sure, yeah.
7:30
So you're at a big disadvantage. And oh, by the way, Josh Hader had been warming up, your closer. So in the back of your mind, you didn't wanna acknowledge it, you're like, "Oh, no.
7:39
Are they not gonna be able to use him also?" So you're just like, "This is awful."
7:44
By the way, probably the funniest moment of the two hour 47 minute delay is this guy over here on my right, he doesn't know this, but Kelly Bidlin, who was still kind of like coming back from vacation mode, he's sort of like, "Hey, Gil, uh, I'm, I'm just, you know, I'm just sort of getting ready for tomorrow's show.
7:59
Have you looked at this Rocket Mortgage leaderboard? I mean, it is crazy." [laughs] And I'm just like, "Uh, uh, no, I haven't, Kelly, but yeah. Wow, that's, that's pretty great." I, I, you know what?
8:09
I didn't wanna- Oh, my God... I didn't wanna address the baseball game yet because I d- I actually- What?... didn't know it was in the delay. [laughs] It's like, "Wow, this is... What a leaderboard.
8:18
You should real- Oh, my God." So I'm just, I'm done laughing. DS- uh, Demerso at Fashion Styles says, "What are you laughing?" I'm like, "No, you wouldn't understand. Never mind."
8:25
[laughs] So by the way, um, the- I was thinking the worst possible for you. I was like, "This is gonna g- they're gonna push it to tomorrow or something." I have no idea how the books handle that.
8:34
Oh, no, it wouldn't count. Yeah. And by the way, the Astros could not h- uh, could not have done that 'cause the m- because the Mets would have won on the first tiebreaker of fewest wins with the same amount of wins.
8:43
Fewest losses, pardon me, with the same amount of wins. That's the first tiebreaker at Circa. Okay, while this is happening, um, I, I'm so preoccupied, I forget the Giants game starts.
8:52
Giants go up one to nothing, then three to nothing, then four to nothing. It's nine to nothing by the end of the fourth.
8:56
So the Giants are sloughing off the Dodgers two, four as they end up winning ten to four, easy peasy.
9:01
Um, and then I'm thinking to myself, "God, if the b- if the Astros don't win this, what a missed opportunity," because all the dead heaters left, with the exception of the Orioles. We can win outright at Circa.
9:11
We can dead heat with just the Orioles, uh, at William Hill Caesars. You're scared of the resumption of the game. You're even more scared of the lack of the resumption [laughs] of the game.
9:21
So finally, it resumes, two hours and 47 minutes. Astros go down one, two, three. Um, it's, it's not Bader. It's not Hader, by the way. It's Taylor Scott, and he does it.
9:32
Then the Astros go up five to four in the 10th, but opening a, a lead-off double, RBI double for the Mets in the bottom of the 10th. It's five to five, nobody out, man on second.
9:44
The in-game line is the Mets are -720, and somehow, somehow fate shined on us. J.D. Martinez strikes out, uh, after the intentional walk to Alonso. Harrison Bader grounds out, runners at second and third.
9:57
A wild pitch or a balk will beat you. Dying, Mark Vientos grounds out. Sweet Lord Almighty, this might happen.
10:05
Top of the 11th, just like the Dodgers made the Giants pay for it l- uh, the day before in extra innings, then the Giants intentionally...
10:13
Excuse me, the, uh, the Mets intentionally walk Yordan, just like the Giants the day before started that horrible seven-inning barrage by intentionally walking Shohei.
10:20
Not saying they shouldn't have, but Yordan's on first. Runners at first and second. Diaz single, Meyer single, another single. It goes to bases loaded to six to five to eight to five.
10:29
Three batters later, RBI double from, uh, Trey Cabbage. 10, uh, uh, ten to five. It's over. Astros win by the same score, except for the fact that now that we've gotten through that chicanery, we beat the Mets.
10:43
We beat the rain. Oh no, now the Orioles have to lose. The game's already started. Just like I forgot that the Giants game started, I was so wrapped up in this, that the Rangers game started.
10:52
It's scoreless after the first. Should I hedge? Uh, I haven't hedged yet. I'm not a hedger. I'm not gonna hedge. Then the, uh, the Rangers go up two to nothing, then two to one. Well, I should probably hedge here, right?
11:02
Before I get a chance, the inning starts. The Rangers go up five to one. I, uh, by the way, when they're up one, two to one, I looked for a plus one and a half on the Orioles, so I could try to get both. Yeah, yeah.
11:12
Didn't exist offshore. I was in California. [laughs] Didn't exist. There was just a plus one, so I didn't do it. Then they go up five to two. Good call. I would've done the same, yeah. The Orioles are plus $3.
11:20
Um, I didn't do it then 'cause I hadn't done it at any point. Why should I? Wyatt Langford started that three-run, uh, barrage with a triple. He later doubled in another three-run bar- barrage to make it eight to two.
11:32
Then he hit a three-run homer. He hit for the cycle. Rangers cruised. We win. Congratulations to all. [sighs] I got my July pick coming up later. July. July, most wins. I'm doing it. I'm diving in again.
11:47
It's a numbers game at least, at least Sports Betting Network.
11:49
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12:56
He's back. To get 13 months of VSiN Pro for just $199, get instant access to our all-new NFL betting guide. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. Hey, Gil, you seen the Rocket Mortgage leaderboard? It's unbelievable.
13:08
[laughs] All my- In the middle of it... all my lovable losers up there. [laughs] We gotta talk about that later.
13:13
Uh, okay, before we, uh, before we, uh, get to Borchardt and, and just show the final standings of June for, for most wins, I have, uh, it's the first day of Wimbledon over there in London, and, uh, I had six plays, vsin.com/picks.
13:28
Every host, every guest, every sport, all our picks at vsin.com/picks for subscribers. Um, six plays in all. Um, one loss this morning. The first one lost, Cristian Garin, so that's, that's over.
13:43
Five re- well, now it's four because Sebastian Ofner, who I have at plus 115, just started. So four remain. Four remain. Uh, on the men's side, what remains is Liam Broady.
13:54
I have Liam Broady, who's gonna be, uh, playing in front of the home crowd, have him at plus 142. He's taking on Botic van de Zandschulp.
14:02
These were, uh, on the picks page about, not quite 24 hours ago, but middle of the day yesterday. So Broady plus 142 is the number where I gave it out. He's still a dog in this against van de Zandschulp.
14:14
Um, on the ladies' side, Evelys, Evelys minus 128. Uh, Evelys is taking on Clara Burel. That should start momentarily. I'm gonna check on all these lines here momentarily. And then we have two plays in one match.
14:30
Our girl Diane Parry, the French woman, she's taking on Naomi Osaka. Everybody is all over Osaka because of how she, uh, took Iga to the brink at the French Open.
14:42
Um, I said the big thing after that was No- Naomi at the US Open's gonna be a thing, but I don't know that she will be at Wimbledon, and I think Diane Parry, spelled Diane Parry, Kelly,
14:53
I think she gives Osaka a run for the money. Not only do I have it over 21 and a half games, but I've got Parry at plus 305 to beat Osaka outright in an upset at Wimbledon today.
15:06
So four more plays for you, um, and just, uh, sort of checking for more plays. Yeah, I see Diane at plus 310 now. Okay, so even better. Even better. Um, Liam Broady is at- Plus 135 at DraftKings...
15:20
yeah, so a little worse. I'd still play it. And then Evelys, uh, I got minus 128, and Evelys is at... Where is she at right now? Do-do-do-do-do. I don't know where. I can't find her, but she's around there somewhere.
15:32
Did her match get pushed back or something? Uh- Uh, minus 140. There you go. Oh, well, okay. Yeah. She's probably... Don't, don't play it higher than that. In fact, minus 140 might be out of pocket on that.
15:41
I don't think so. It says today, uh, it says starts in 20 minutes. Okay, that's why it's off the board, 'cause it's about to start.
15:46
Okay, the big news, by the way, on the ladies' side, Aryna Sabalenka pulled out, and we'll get to my Wimbledon futures that I- Oh, really?...
15:52
yeah, that I made over the weekend, because there was rumblings that she was completely hurt.
15:58
She had a shoulder injury that she wasn't being specific about, but she says it was really hampering her, and so I got ahead of that with plays. Sorry that the show wasn't on during the week.
16:06
Um, but this morning she did in fact pull out, so some of those plays are informed by that injury, which resulted in the withdrawal this morning. Let's talk some more baseball. Uh, Mark Borchardt joins us.
16:17
Mark, I just wanna show the, uh, the final June stats. You and I were talking off air. Mark Borchardt comes to us from an undisclosed location, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
16:25
The Astros win the most ones, uh, most wins in the month of June at 17 and 8. They tie with the Orioles at 17 and 12. First tiebreaker at Circa was fewest losses, so the, uh, Astros win out right at Circa.
16:38
Dead heat with the Orioles at William Hill Caesars. The Mets at 16 and 8. They played the fewest games in the month of June. Dodgers 16 and 10. All of those run differentials within three runs of each other.
16:51
Look at those, all plus 40 and plus 41s and plus 42s and plus 43s.
16:55
Then the Brewers 16 11, Diamondbacks 16 11, with a negative run differential, by the way, and the Cardinals at 16 and 12, also with a negative run differential. What a month. Uh, Mark, we finally got one.
17:07
Yeah, Gil, I think that you're ahead of the curve, though, as far as playing these, uh, go, because, you know, you're taking out the variance on, on, like, a day-to-day basis, and I was really amazed.
17:18
You know, we're pretty close to the sun, Gil, wouldn't you say, here? Yes. Doing this for, for 100 years. Mm-hmm. And, like, today, like, the people who I'm close to in this industry, uh, we're just up, all up in arms.
17:28
There's only three games on the card, and it's like, you know, it, it, it's, uh, m- maybe we're spending too much time handicapping the daily card when there's, like, what you've done over the last three months, really good plays in front of our face.
17:43
And, and you've, and you've, you've happened to be successful, uh, with them just from a profit standpoint.
17:48
But from a Just from a probability standpoint, for me at least, you know, running Monte Carlo simulations and doing this for such a long time, I just think they're better plays. You just cut out so much variance.
17:58
But, uh, congratulations. Handicapping prowess, Gil. Being able to, to... I, and I, and I think that it's interesting, like, how you model it.
18:05
Like, you, I'm sure you're doing component ratings, and then looking at the schedule, and that sort of thing. But in all honesty, did you, did you have Kyle Tucker getting injured- No... in, in your model?
18:15
No, of course not. And so, so like, so, but, but, but s- but, and they were able to... And I think that the universe, kind of like the karma was good for you.
18:21
Because I, in all honesty, I think you should have lost this bet, but won the first one with the Cleveland Indians. That was a really good call. Uh, only the, not, not a bad, not a bad handicap.
18:30
Great handicap with, with the Astros. There, um- I, I'm with you on... Yeah. Yeah. There was, I, I agreed all, there is a world in which we could have won all of these. We probably sh- could have won all.
18:39
There's, we probably should have won one in three, I think. Could have won two, uh, if they hadn't gone, the Guardians hadn't gone two and five against the White Sox and Rockies.
18:49
Anyway, it's been 90 days of awesome, just sweat for all of it, and it, it really does take out the n- the variance, and that is the key to it all.
18:57
Um, it's about sustainability, what teams are performing that are unsustainable. It's, it's, it's just good on these shops for putting out these markets. I feel like we have drawn more people into baseball
19:11
than anything that, like, Major League Baseball themselves has tried to do to draw in people, right? It's like the power of betting and the power additionally of these specific markets have just been awesome.
19:23
Let me just ask you this per your numbers. You and I, by the way, we gotta do a Q2 pod this week. We down? You down to do it? Yes. W- yeah. We gotta do that. Sure thing. Yeah.
19:31
So let me, let, let me just do this here on the radio show, which is give me per your numbers what team right now as we round the mid-season bend, if you will, with the All-Star break two weeks away, what team is the, do you have as the most undervalued in terms of their performance vis-a-vis your numbers, and what's the most overvalued generally?
19:50
As far, as far as, like, well, there's some value in the market still with this Astros team. Like, they're still plus 160 to win that division.
19:58
They're only three and a half games out, and I think that they're, they're, um, by my numbers, by my simulations, I think that they're the favorite to win that. Minus 135 is how I have that division priced.
20:08
So I think that's a good one. I like Baltimore as well. Uh, you wanna talk about favorites in a division, I've got Baltimore winning that division minus, uh, uh, they're at 64%, which is minus 178.
20:19
You can still get plus money on that. And it just, for me, logically, I think that that offense is better, uh, the Baltimore offense, than the Yankees.
20:27
I mean, the Yankees have two players that are probably arguably the best players in the league, but after that it kind of drops off, right?
20:33
And, uh, I, I think that the bullpen for that, that Orioles team is way better than, than the Yankees, and that's, that's included there.
20:40
So two teams right there just to win the division for me are, I think are, are, are pretty, pretty good plays.
20:47
Uh, one of the other things, and I was kind of down, and I, I, I wanted to bring this up because I was down to begin the season on the Padres, but now I think the Padres are, are a really good value, uh, to, to make the playoffs.
20:57
I think that's a good play, too, Gil. Only three games today, as you mentioned. Do you have a play in any of them? You know what I did is I, I, I played a couple series plays.
21:06
I've been doing more of these series plays lately, and, and I played the, uh, the Mets minus 125 with the Brewers mi- minus 220 in a parlay. You can actually parlay these in some places. And, uh, that play is plus 165.
21:20
Uh, and so, well, you gotta be able to kind of, kind of handicap the, the day after the game and then three, three games in advance. And so I, I'm able to do that, which is cool. And so I want to take advantage of that.
21:30
You gotta pay a little bit more of a price in the market, uh, but I think it's worth it to get, to get a little bit less variance. Uh, but, uh, the, the, the, the, the one thing I wanted to, to bring up, Gil- Please...
21:41
is the Washington Nationals have a pitcher called D- DJ Hers. And every time I see that, that guy name come up I th- I think of the song Hey Mr. DJ. And this, I, I didn't bring this up before the show.
21:55
Gil, who sang the song Hey Mr. DJ? Uh, that was Zhané, wasn't it? Yeah. Yeah, I knew you would get it. I knew it. I knew it. It was a, you're, you're absolutely right, Gil. And so I think of Hey Mr.
22:08
DJ, and then I, I also think of you, too. So I want everybody that's listening to this show when they see DJ Hers to think of A Numbers Game and think of Gil. [laughs] Because that's what I do.
22:17
When, when, isn't it funny how, how, how your mind works? The brain works weird. Thank you for bringing up Zhané, a duo, R&B duo from the early '90s. Nothing better than '90s R&B, Mark. Nothing better.
22:29
Thank you, brother. Absolutely, Gil. Congratulations on your bet. That's cool. I'm glad you, glad you got that one, dude.
22:33
Honestly, as corny as it sounds, I, congratulations to all, 'cause so many people rode this, and I'm just so pumped for everybody that they, they kept with it.
22:42
And so there's a lesson in that, which we'll get to on the other side. Thank you, Mark. Appreciate it. My pleasure, Gil. Golf, tennis, more baseball. July wins coming up.
22:52
A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Hey, don't forget to check out our website, vsin.com. Best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles, odds by state, betting tools, betting guides. It's all there.
23:05
All there at VSiN. By the way, on the front page today, Zachary Cohen all over the place with his Wimbledon plays, women's and men's.
23:12
Um, he's, Zach Cohen has just taken up all the real estate at vsin.com this morning- [laughs]... on the front page. Come on, Zach, give somebody else a chance. There must be some writers on vacation too, Gil.
23:21
[laughs] Wow. Uh, Steve Makinen is there with college football recruiting rankings. Uh, Matt Humans, early look at college basketball futures. Adam Burke, as always, with great stuff.
23:29
Um, Mike Somich, creating your own NFL power ratings for handicapping. Oh, that's good. Uh, yeah, I- That's a nice one right there... yeah, I started reading that, uh, I think last week a little bit. Yeah.
23:38
It was a good little write-up by Mike Somich. Vsin.com, check it out. That's real good stuff. Everything you could possibly want.
23:42
By the way, the other big thing about, um, yesterday was I promised on Twitter, somebody asked me, "Will you reveal the name of the sushi restaurant if this happens?" This was during the rain delay.
23:52
When did you do this, by the way? This was on, this was on Twitter yesterday in the middle of the rain delay. Just on Twitter yesterday? Just on Twitter. Okay.
23:59
Sometime after you asked me if I was watching the Rocket Mortgage leaderboard, and I was like, "Yes, I will." W- he asked specifically, "Will you do it at BetBash?" And I said I will do it during Bet Bash week.
24:09
I'll do it. All right. So I will reveal the name of the sushi place. People have been so, so kind on Twitter at beating the book. I am like super humbled by it. Kelly and I have such a great time every morning.
24:22
By the way, let me just say also that Kelly has made this just a blast for me on an everyday basis in a way that it never has been before. But people are so nice. I'm just going to read some.
24:31
There's no way I can read all because there's hundreds of these. But J.D. Emmons, our buddy, J.D. Emmons from Alabama, he says, "You're making such great calls on these monthly bets.
24:40
Baseball is such a great sport, but the season is such a grind. Love these month-long bets. No way you're not betting July. LOL." There is no way I'm not betting it. I will be revealing that here later in the show. P.D.
24:53
Pay1, "Amazing show content. Listen to yourself and Kelly on my everyday walks. Finally, a serious gambling show with advice and info, not just picks with no data to back them up. Keep up the good work." Thank you, sir.
25:09
That's very nice of you to say. Michael at MikeCam4561, "Your monthly bets are quite the adventure. Great job. We've got to get lucky eventually, and here we did. Thanks for taking along the ride.
25:20
I love all of your shows and podcasts." Thank you so much. That is very nice of you. This is from GameTimeJones, "I have had zero action on any of your monthly bets.
25:29
I'm in California, but have had a rooting interest and find myself checking standings each time. Such fun bets to follow." Thank you. That is also really nice.
25:38
I-Y-A-O-Y-A, I don't know how to pronounce that, 6-9, "I have fully enjoyed the tracking of your pick skills since MLB had started. I have zero options in Washington State for most wins.
25:47
Your sweat is not only mine, but many listeners of a numbers game army looking forward to see what you pick for July." We'll read through more of these. One more. Dale J. Matecki, "Gil, thanks.
25:59
You're such a joy to listen to every morning. I have a much better understanding of the numbers because of your show." How nice are people? And I just want to shout out Dave Ross and Will Hill.
26:10
They were kind enough to have me on the look ahead last night. And they asked a few questions, and these are, they were interesting questions.
26:20
I'll get to the last one, which I think is the most interesting from a gambling standpoint. But one of them was, Will was like, "What do you think you'll remember like years from now about this whole thing?"
26:29
I said, "I'll remember the loss, the one out loss in March, April more than I'll remember the win." The opposite. Yeah. Without question. And Dave, that's just how our brains work. That's how bettors' minds work, yeah.
26:38
Because this ends up winning me more than May would have, but still less than March, April would have. Still a nice haul. Right. Yes, yeah. But, and Dave also asked, "Does this make up for it?
26:51
Does the gambling gods, are you now even with the gambling gods because of this?" And I said, "We were at the Mets minus 720 in that extra inning. I get it. The Astros were left for dead.
27:03
Does it completely make up for it? No, but I'm super grateful that we got a W." I also don't know, I don't remember what we discussed in May. No, it was April, May, and then June, right? Yeah. March, April.
27:19
March, April, then May, and then June. May, June, yeah. I don't remember what we discussed in May, but the Guardians early, you were betting every day. Have you done that ever, have you done that all three months?
27:27
Not the first month. I did it every time with the Guardians in May. Yeah, towards the end of- Oh, Guardians in May, okay... towards the end of March, April, I started betting them every day. Not at the very beginning.
27:37
Okay. But towards the end of March, April, then all of May, and then the Astros all of June. I mean, it's been an unbelievable baseball season. Yeah, so easy.
27:45
But, you know, I said we, there was a world where we could have won all three. There was a world we should have probably won two. There was also a world where we lost all three, right? Mm-hmm.
27:53
And so Will, Will asked the best question last night, I think. Dave's questions were great too, but Will asked, I think, the most poignant one, which is, "What did this, what's the lesson?
28:03
What did this, what's the big takeaway from all of this?" And I think that's the best question because for new gamblers or people who are new-ish to gambling,
28:12
the process matters so much more than the result, and I know it's a win-loss results-oriented thing.
28:19
I'm not saying the result doesn't matter because ultimately the results are how you get graded on all of this, and it's your bank account, it's your bottom line. But from just a mental approach standpoint to it,
28:32
if the pr- like we could have easily packed it in after March, April and just been like, "That was the worst soul-crushing beat ever. There's no way you can come back from that."
28:42
But if your process, and whatever you does, we're just talking about monthly bets in baseball.
28:45
If yours happens to be golf, if yours happens to be football, if yours happens to be certain markets within those sports, if your process is good,
28:53
your ability to overcome negative variance, the degree to which you can do that in sports betting is going to go longer than almost anything towards your ultimate success or not.
29:05
If you keep knocking at the door, right, the results will come. It's like a poker player. Skill can only take you to the f- you know, can get you to the finish line, but at the end, you do need things to break your way.
29:17
And so I think that's the biggest lesson in all that is that process ultimately is the most important thing here. And, um, again, to the extent you're able to overcome negative variance and just
29:29
eat those bad beats and recognize it's just a part of doing business, and you will have to develop scar tissue for it. I'm not suggesting that, that you get that the first time, right?
29:38
It's difficult even for the most veteran bettor, but I think that's, that's the biggest takeaway from all of it for me anyway. No, that was a good question. Now, what about that Rocket Mortgage leaderboard?
29:47
What was it that you wanted to, uh- What's the [laughs] really big to talk about today?
29:52
It was just the, it, it was all, all the guys yesterday scattered throughout it are all the, all the, uh, dumbos that I bet all the time that never, never win, and they were all just trying to choke the, uh, choke the thing away to each other.
30:04
So explain. How did it go down? So Cameron Davis ends up winning. Good, good on him. I've bet him enough, uh, that's for sure. You bet him here? Uh, no, I did not bet him.
30:11
No, I didn't bet g- I didn't bet golf at all last week. You took a vacation vacation. Yeah, I took, I took a week off golf, so it was, uh, it was a good mental reset. Oh, wow. You really need a vacation.
30:17
I believe Matt Brown had Davis Thompson, who did end up finishing T2. Uh, Aaron Rai, I probably would've bet he finished T2. [laughs] There was... I mean, like, he should've won it. Akshay Bhatia, uh, what'd he have?
30:28
Three putt on 18 to lose the thing. Like, it should've at least gone to a playoff between Bhatia and Cam Davis. Uh, he three putted on, uh, and bogeyed to lose the thing to Cam Davis, who was already in clubhouse.
30:39
So yeah, Bhatia, Aaron Rai, Cam Davis, guy, Cam- I mean, Cameron Young. Oh, boy. I mean, this guy, we've, we've talked about the, him not having won yet, and all these second place finishes he's racked up.
30:52
I mean, it was a T10 yesterday. He was four shots off the, or fi- uh, three shots off the lead. Uh, man, if you were watching that at all yesterday, though, he was, he was going nuclear out there.
31:01
Can you tr- Like, he was missing short putts, and yet I think for the final six holes he was just cussing himself out the entire time. Oh my God. Like, it, it was getting really ugly.
31:09
Can you trust him ever to make a bet on him ever again?
31:12
Um, I never wanna say ever again, but you've, like, I think when you, when you see something like that yesterday, you gotta be like, "All right, I gotta back off this guy."
31:19
At least from an outright perspective, you gotta back off for a little bit and see them get their mind straight. It, it's, it depends golfer to golfer, right?
31:27
Like, that something is that it, it, yesterday that I would read into. What happened when we t- when we saw Xander come up just short of Scheffler early, you know, in the Masters.
31:37
Like, there was nothing, to me there was nothing with, with him that I was worried about going forward, 'cause we'd seen Schauffele, we've seen Schauffele lose things so closely so many times before that I'm like, I don't really care about Schauffele.
31:49
He's used to this. It, but I, Cameron Young, the, it's gotten to him clearly. It, it, he is, it, it is problematic now. Didn't Bhatia, didn't Bhatia also admit that it, like, he got nervous?
31:58
Like, the, the nerves got to him afterwards.
32:01
I didn't catch po- post, uh, post round stuff, but h- but stuff from last week he was talk- he did, he was talking about that last week 'cause he was in the mix last week, but he was talking about how much he loves that.
32:09
Like, he feeds off the pressure, but he gets nervous and stuff like that, and then he three putts. This on the heels of Rory gacking away the US Open. Yeah.
32:19
So that's just amazing to me, and it's not, of course, it's not, you know, no one's trying to tackle you. You don't have to do, like, a, you know, lunge for a ball in tennis and be athletic.
32:29
I mean, it's athletic to a point, right? But you, it's literally you, a stick, and a ball. I, I mean, Ca- Cameron Davis hit the shot on, what was it, 17 I think is the par five. I, it was great. Went in the water.
32:42
Um, and that was one where I was, I didn't think he was gonna be able to recover. All these guys could- like, they couldn't make a shot though. The, nobody could hit a shot yesterday.
32:50
[laughs] I mean, he wins at 18 under. I think it was, like, at the turn where everybody was like, "It was, like, 21, 22 is probably gonna get home." And it's like nope, nope, nope, nobody can make a putt. Jeez. Nobody's.
33:02
Nobody could find a fairway. It was incredible. I saw not a second of it.
33:05
It, it, it's a good example though of when we talk, i- if you ever listen to Long Shots and talk, we talk about win equity and some of these guys [laughs] that can go out there and actually win a golf tournament, now how valuable that is.
33:15
Yes. I, this is an example. I mean, Cam Davis, he's got two wins on the PGA Tour now. They've both come at this same tourney. Corey Conners, same thing.
33:23
Like, there are a couple of these guys, you talk about this with Aaron Rai still looking for that first one out on the PGA tour. I thought Min Woo Lee was gonna get his yesterday.
33:31
He had his, his, he had his, uh, mistakes. Bhatia's picked up a couple wins. I don't wanna put, uh, you know, knock him too much, but that was a bad 18 hole. It's Call All Shots golf podcast, best in the world.
33:42
Wimbledon futures next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Make this NFL season your best ever with our all new VSiN NFL betting guide.
33:57
The guide's packed with everything you need to bet the NFL smarter, including in-depth previews of all 32 teams with win total projections for every team, new quarterback and head coach breakdown, Super Bowl predictions, prop betting guide, plus best futures bets from the VSiN experts, including MVP, Rookie of the Year, and Coach of the Year awards.
34:13
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just getting started, our NFL betting guide is your ticket to smarter, more informed bets. Visit vsin.com/guide to get your copy of our all new NFL betting guide today.
34:21
That's V-S-I-N.com/guide. You missed the, uh, release of our, uh, NFL betting guide on Thursday. We talked, uh, football show. There'll be more football to be talked, I believe is the correct phrase. Yes.
34:35
[laughs] Yes, there will be. To be talked- [laughs]... in the coming months. Two more months, baby. Let's go. Uh, we got tweets that beat the book. These are again, all, all about the, uh, the Astros. Uh, Mr.
34:45
H talking about the, the monthly bets. "A monthly tradition unlike any other." Uh, this is from Frank from Seven Hills, "Honored to be part of this. Let's go."
34:54
This is from, uh, JD, "You're single-handedly raising OMLP television numbers. The Rangers O's meaningless game might have gotten the best numbers of the year.
35:02
L- uh, it's literally impossible for it to be this wild, and you've done it for two or three months." Wow. Thank you. That's very nice of you.
35:08
Uh, Gary Gibson, "I've never actively checked box scores on bets I've had no part of as much as I have the past couple months. Amazing stuff here, Gil." Thank you. This is from, do, do, do, do, do, do. This is from, uh,
35:22
from Ray Pierce, "You've had the best pick now three straight times. This is incredible run regardless of what happens. I didn't tail you this month because I went from 17 to 1 when you released it to 11 to 1."
35:33
Oh, it went from 17 to 1 to 11 to 1. "I was too cool for school to take it. Dunce." Well, I don't know if I would've taken 11 to 1 either, by the way. Um,
35:42
Ed Mark Hanson, "Congratulations to Gil on your continued success in Monthly and Baseball. It's great content for loyal listeners to follow." Um, I appreciate that very much. And this is from, uh- Matthew Sostek.
35:53
Gil, I really thought the spirit of Mike Bercovici in the Yom Kippur massacre, God wish those phrase, were gonna play in again, especially during that whole rain delay, sending you an early mazel tov.
36:02
Uh, thank you very much for that. We could go on and on, but everybody's super nice with us. Um, by the way, Wimbledon Futures, uh, if you missed it this morning, Aryna Sabalenka pulls out of the tournament.
36:13
She had given a press conference, I wanna say it was Friday or Saturday. J-Rod was the one who pointed it out to me on Twitter. J-Rod is great at, at letting me know some of the tennis breaking news.
36:23
Where Sabalenka, in her press conference, was like, "Something's wrong with my shoulder," and she used the phrase a, an injury that is not normal for tennis players.
36:33
And what I took that to mean was, I was like, "Oh, I think this is a baseball-like injury." Like, I think this is like a rotator cuff.
36:39
I don't know if you know this, but if you're serving a tennis ball, you kinda need the shoulder to be okay, and that's like a strength of her game.
36:46
So she announced this morning she withdrew, but on that press conference news, I ended up betting Dari- uh, Daria Kasatkina to get to the finals. She's on that half of the bracket.
36:57
She's on the Sabalenka half of the bracket.
36:59
Daria Kasatkina, 22 to 1 to get to the final, and I also bet a couple final match-ups, Iga to play Ka- uh, Kasatkina in the final at 100 to 1, Iga to play Madison Keys in the final at 40 to 1.
37:14
Those added to the plays that I already had, which was Iga to win it outright on the ladies' side at four to one, and then some Iga, Carlitos, and Iga Sinner parlays, seven to one and eight, up, and plus 850 respectively to, uh, win across the men's and the ladies' side.
37:31
So those are all the Wimbledon Futures, but those ones that I made over the weekend largely informed by the Sabalenka injury news and then what eventually became with the, with the withdrawal this morning.
37:40
I'm sorry for the, uh, the past post on that, but it happened during the weekend and we don't have our shows, but that's what I bet this weekend.
37:47
And, uh, Felika Wilhill and I were betting a whole bunch of these because of that Sabalenka news conference.
37:54
Um, basketball, of course, in the middle of free agency, and the big news happened, I wanna say at 12:30 AM our time, in the middle of the night last night.
38:05
I, like an old man, fell asleep on the couch and woke up to the, my phone buzzing about this. Uh, Paul George,
38:12
who had announced earlier in the day, you know, told the Clippers, "I'm, I'm outta here," uh, he ends up signing with the Philadelphia 76ers, and he does... These basketball numbers, man, Kelly.
38:23
These are, I, I'm always tripped out by these. Four years, $212 million. I'll do the math. That's 53 million a year, uh, max deal with the Sixers to join Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey for yet another big three.
38:38
Oh, those always work out. Uh-oh, they don't. Um, but this, on paper anyway, looks like a pretty solid squad, and who knows? Does Klay end up there as well?
38:47
Um, Kelly, I ask you, the Celtics are the short shot in the East. Where do the Sixers fall now? Ooh, that's a good call.
38:56
Um, yeah, I will, I will say real quick, the, the one, uh, the one difference, I guess, a little bit of this big three is, like, this is- This one makes sense...
39:03
this is almost like video game mode, where you got to clear basically the entire roster and, like, start over. Yeah. It was like, "We're gonna start with these three, and then we'll piece it together from there."
39:13
Uh, Maxey just signed an extension this morning, so you know you'll have him going forward as well. Uh, close to a quarter bill for him, you know. Yeah. No big, no big deal. Yeah.
39:21
Most, you win Most Improved Player one year, and then a quarter billion dollars goes into your bank account. [laughs] Quarter bill. That's awesome. Um, all right. Where do the 76ers fall in the East?
39:33
Um, definitely not second, as, as their four to one would, uh, suggest in the Eastern Conference right now. Who's second, the Knicks or the Bucks?
39:39
You've got right now Celtics plus 150, s- uh, Sixers plus 400, Knicks plus 450, Bu- Bucks plus 600. And then everybody else. And then you drop down to the Heat at 19 to 1. No, but I mean who's second for you, then?
39:49
Knicks. Uh, Knicks right now. Um, I'm not sure that I would have the 76ers above the Milwaukee Bucks even. So even acquiring Paul George, you still have them fourth? Yeah.
40:01
I just don't know, like, I don't know what we're supposed to... Like, you're... Okay, wait.
40:05
There was a lot of discussion going into this off-season of would you surround Joel Embiid with guys like Paul George, whi- which should complement Joel Embiid's game well?
40:16
Or do you need to start thinking about the future and complementing what Tyrese Maxey does better? And that would be more of an up-tempo offense, which obv- which obviously with Joel Embiid there, it gets a little wonky.
40:29
So I, I, I just don't know. Yes, this is... Look, if you're a Sixers fan out there, yes, your team is better. It's going to be better than what it was a year ago, um, I would think.
40:38
You're basically replaced Tobias Harris with Paul George. Yes, that's an upgrade. I can't sit here [laughs] and say that's not an upgrade. Um, but I, what do we see now Joel Embiid in the playoffs, man?
40:47
Like, I'm there- Well... with Joel Embiid in the playoffs- So... and the injuries. Like, that's- The injuries. This is, I mean, as we're having this conversation, that's all I'm thinking about, right? Um, a knee, a face.
40:58
[laughs] Yes. You know? Like, whatever you can imagine, Joel Embiid has had this. So you just... And he's, what is he, 30 now? He's 30. So wha- you know- Yeah. 30...
41:11
at some point, right, at his size, that has an age curve. Correct. That is perhaps an earlier age curve, if you will, than someone who's a guard or a forward, just historically speaking.
41:23
Uh, we've seen it with his injuries, that we would absolutely believe that of him.
41:27
So that's always the cautionary thing with the Sixers is, all right, uh, let's say they get Klay too, if that, if that, you know, tickles your fancy. Uh, Klay is obviously not the player he once was.
41:37
Is that enough for you to make a bet on, knowing that Embiid always breaks down in some fashion? No. And I don't think you can responsibly, right? No, you can't. You can't. Um, n- not, not for me at least.
41:49
Uh, it, and look, I'll keep putting... Yeah, I know there's probably a lot of people out there listening, laughing. I'll keep putting the Bucs up there.
41:55
They, they, they'll, they'll have to do some things this off-season, Gil, but you're still telling me You got two of the top 15 players in the NBA.
42:01
Like, I, I, I still think there is a way that you turn- you're able to turn some things around and that be a competitive team next year.
42:08
Khris Middleton, uh, should be healthy for the entirety of the season, unlike he was last year. I think that's a big deal out east. Um, Western Conference, this is getting interesting. I... Like, the Clippers,
42:20
there's a couple of these teams you're just left with, uh, today, like- What, what does our buddy JVT, JVT do now with his Clippers? Well, I, I don't know.
42:26
So I was gonna, I was gonna spit, what do we always say about the NFL, right? And the, and the NBA is not far off from this. Where's the worst possible place you could be in the NFL, Gil?
42:36
Well, we said- A 500 team, right? Yeah, we said that the N- Right around the middle... the NBA was really who we said it about first. Like, if you go 40 and 42, you're in purgatory. Okay.
42:43
So, so the Clippers lose Paul George. Yeah. They bring back James Harden on this horrible contract, in my opinion. I- Two years, 70 mil. Yeah. You don't really have much else.
42:54
Eh, the whole point of getting rid of P- Paul George is because they cannot afford this whole s- you're gonna ke- if you haven't heard it a million times already, you're gonna keep hearing about this second apron stuff that's built into the salary cap, uh, uh, now.
43:05
And it's, it is testing owners. You are seeing some of the owners get tested with how much money they really wanna go out and spend. There's been a couple of the key situations that you...
43:13
I, I think it's gonna be the overwhelming storyline of this, this year's free agency, is how, uh, how much owners are now being like, "Okay, we, we can't, we can't go that far, as far as paying some of these guys."
43:24
That's why you're hearing LeBron James talk about [laughs] having... possibly taking a pay cut, which I don't think is gonna end up happening. Um, but you didn't...
43:32
The, the Clippers wouldn't, they wouldn't pay Paul George, and now, um, I, I, I mean, if you...
43:38
There were times last year, Gil, where you could've said through a, a stretch of five, six weeks of the NBA regular season, the Clippers were the best team in the NBA.
43:47
No matter how you wanna think about 'em after the season, looking back, maybe they weren't that good, there was a stretch where they were the best team in the NBA.
43:54
Now, going into next season, okay, uh, it's a Western Conference where you're talking about you're the five, six, seven, eight seed, something like that. And who wants to be at that point in the NBA?
44:04
Remember how this happened. Kawhi Leonard wouldn't come to the Clippers unless they just paid out of their you know whats- Yes... to get Paul George. And Paul George ended up costing them Shai Gilgeous-Alexander- Yep...
44:17
near MVP. Jaylen Williams. [laughs] Four first-round picks. He's one of them. A first round that was protected and two first-round swaps. Good God. Soccer. USA playing tonight for their lives. Dallin Cup is next.
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