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Jul 20, 2026
A Numbers Game | July 20, 2026 | Hour 3
A Numbers Game | July 20, 2026 | Hour 3
00:00
47:45
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Transcript
0:00
Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more. That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
0:08
Make a smart buy on the off-road-ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest-lasting trucks.
0:15
Built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
0:21
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
0:27
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
0:37
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you could trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
0:44
From a great deal today to great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places.
0:54
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1:27
The Sports Betting Network. [upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
1:42
Hour number three of a Numbers Game at VSiN, The Sports Betting Network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. Gil Alexander in San Francisco this week.
1:51
Kelly Bilin back in Vegas at Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Uh, Adam Burke still to join us this hour. And, uh, Kelly, I'd like to do a, uh, American League MVP, National League, uh,
2:04
Cy, NL Cy Young- Yeah, man... Cy Young heat check here momentarily. Some stuff's tightening up. I got reason. Oh, dude. It's interest- I got opinions. I got opinions. We get tweets. We get texts, and we get tweets.
2:14
By the way, Wes Reynolds, uh, s- uh, we're talking about Madonna being out there for the, uh, World Cup halftime show. Wes Reynolds, always with the info, he goes, "I got to thinking about Madonna with our conversation.
2:25
Her last number one Hot 100 song was in guess what year?" Uh, 2006. I don't know. 2000. 2000, okay. I- Take a Bow, 2000. Before, no, excuse me, 2000 was, uh, music.
2:42
N- before that, it was 1994 with Babyface and Take a Bow. What are we doing? Come on, Madonna. Just, just sit it out. It's okay. You don't have to, e- you don't need more ego gratification. Uh, Brian M.
2:55
on Twitter, "When you ask Kelly who the Red Sox manager is [laughs] when you get back, he'll probably answer something like FSU plus three and a half versus Boston College." [laughs] Did you re- It's not true...
3:04
did you see my response, Gil? Uh, uh, the- Yeah... first of all, great tweet by Brian. But no, I would probably have Florida State favored 'cause I would be shocked to, uh... Oh, you missed all of last week, Gil.
3:13
They w- lo- all last week, what'd we dig into the ACC with Dustin for t- over two days, daddy.
3:18
It was multiple days where I'm stay- staring at the ACC futures board being like, "This is the most depressing thing I've ever seen in my life." [laughs] Like, there's 16 teams. Miami's minus- Yeah...
3:28
140 or something, and then Florida State's 35 to 1. I don't, I don't know what happened. I don't know what happened. Oh, man. A lot of people are blaming me- Uh, Maddy-... for not paying.
3:36
I'm not, I'm not supporting the NIL, and that's, it's my fault apparently. Yeah. It is your fault. I believe it is your fault. Never giving a single dollar- Maddy-... to that school. Our, our deal is done.
3:45
I paid you to go there. [laughs] I got my education. I'm done. It's the, it's the John Mulaney comedy bit on it. He's like, "I don't think these colleges understand how this transaction works." Right. I give you money.
3:56
You educate me for four years, and then it's over. You don't get to call me for the rest of my life [laughs] asking for more money. It's like some poor sophomore that calls every other week- [laughs]... asking for money.
4:05
And I'm like, "Oh, Jessica, you sound lovely, but no. Fuck no." J- Jessica, by the way. [laughs] Maddy Jackpots, "Arizona Cardinals season wins is a great opportunity to middle if you have options." That's very true.
4:18
Patrick Kelly, "So much more than middling." 'Cause I say so much more than producer, so much more than middling. Uh, Pat Mo- N- no, because so much more would be just hitting those outrights outright. But no. Yeah. No.
4:29
So there's that. Pat Monteforte, "I am confused. When does hard court season actually start? It looks like clay in Euro nice places is still going on. All the best, and thank you for your great work as always."
4:39
So once the, the s- the short grass season ends in tennis, v- uh, hard courts begin in earnest in, like, a week or two, and then it's nothing but hard courts the rest of the way. Then it actually has indoor hards later.
4:51
But they do have some stray clay. This is, like, stray clay, and there is a hard court tournament thrown in last week and this week as well. So it's mostly clay, but there's also a dash of hards.
5:04
Uh, Torch D, the one who put the satin in your panties, he says, "In the ultimate ring chase, LeBron signs with the Rams as a goal line tight end." [laughs] "Just chu- just chuck it up there, Stafford."
5:14
And JasonH11, "I was hoping the whining and flopping would be less as the games gained importance in the World Cup. Boy, was I wrong. The final was over the top."
5:22
Yeah, Argentina was also kind of, uh, playing aggressively beyond. LasVegas514, "Yo, do we really care where LeBron goes?
5:31
How dare them hold up the schedule because of this guy who really won't make a difference on any of the teams he chooses to go to. Retire already. Sheesh." I think a lot of people feel that way. Mm-hmm.
5:41
Not our own Chris Foster, though. He's very excited. Nevadazer, hey, Gil. I- it's a, that's a great point though, Gil.
5:47
The, i- it's the, it's basically the same thing as, and I think I was on this side too with the Bryson stuff. It's you're holding up them setting everything, and Adam Silver came out and flat out said it last week.
6:00
He's like, "Oh, we kind of have to wait to set a schedule until, uh, you know, we have to wait for LeBron to figure out where he's gonna play before we can make the schedule." And that affects everything.
6:08
For betting, win totals, all that stuff, it, some of that stuff's being held up at certain shops.
6:12
So good for some shops having it out, but others don't wanna post that stuff till they know what the schedule is and they know where LeBron's at And I would disagree a little bit.
6:20
I think, I think he does make a incremental- Mm-hmm... difference to Eastern Conference teams, right? Uh, Nevadazer, "Hey, Gil. Did well this golf major season with Rory and Wyndham." There you go.
6:30
"But if Scotty doesn't reestablish his 2025 dominance, then the majors outside of the Masters are gonna be wide open. Maybe we just need to expect the unexpected."
6:38
And The Auburnest, "Couldn't agree more on the golden boot, Gil. Kalshi's market on Mbappe went to 28 cents after Spain beat France. Not sure if the market makers thought third place didn't count, but I took advantage.
6:48
I think he ended up around 45 cents before the weekend." I think the only mitigating factor, uh, Auburnest, if that is your real name, uh, was you just had to be sure he was going to play. Right.
6:58
Once y- once you knew he was in the lineup, then it was go. Go time at that point. Yeah, we just didn't know if he was gonna play. A- and that was the one- Yeah...
7:04
we kind of kept saying at the end of the w- uh, end of the week last week. Uh, Gil, I don't, I don't know about you, but that was one l- uh, watched the, watched the final yesterday.
7:12
I was definitely gonna be locked in at noon Pacific Time watching that for sure, no doubt about it. Third place game, though, my American brain can't handle that one.
7:20
Like, third place game I gotta carve time out of my schedule for? [laughs] Like, I, I saw some of it, and you're right, it was fun with all the goals and everything, but oy vey, third place.
7:30
They st- Finals- They stopped, they s- they stopped doing it in the Euro Cup. Good They stopped in, like, 1980 or something. I, I mean- Yeah...
7:36
this is, w- this is where my brain toggles back to, like, the pros, where, like, if you're Real Madrid, I, I'm calling up France. Like, if Kylian Mbappe steps foot on that field, like, no way.
7:45
He cannot get hurt in a third place game. But whatever. I just don't get it. I don't get it. And that's okay. Yeah. Put it, put it on the list of things that our American sensibilities don't get.
7:55
D- Um, American League MVP. Yordan Alvarez is minus 165. I'm going to argue again that this is probably too low. Hmm. And I know most people who have argued with me have said, "Well, that injury's coming any time."
8:09
There is one proper counterargument, but the injury thing to me is not, you know, one of those. Could it happen? Of course, but I don't think it's a cogent argument.
8:17
Alvarez, once again, Kelly, all of the Triple Crown categories, he leads. 31 homers. Next best, 29 with Rice and Caminero. Ben Rice and, and, uh, Junior Caminero. Uh, he leads in RBIs, 60... Excuse me, 72.
8:33
Next Rice with 68. Ben Rice. Uh, he leads in batting average, 320. Next is Yandy Diaz at 315. So he right now would win the American League Triple Crown. Oh, by the way, he also leads in hits with 114.
8:47
He leads in on-base percentage. He leads in slugging percentage. Good God, he's even third in runs. The man is just dominating every statistical category.
8:55
If the vote was today, there is no doubt he wins because he wins the Triple Crown. It's that simple. There is one cogent counterargument.
9:04
And the only cogent counterargument is, you know, not that guys like Rice are, are trailing closely because that's obviously cogent.
9:10
But it's the fact that in terms of MVPs, and we've talked about this before, do you have to be on a good team to win MVP, Kelly? Right.
9:18
And going back all the way to the year 2000, the answer, let's just do it losing teams. Let's, let's set that as the, as the 500 as the barrier. So since 2000, we've had 50 MVP winners, 25 AL, 25 NL.
9:33
The answers to the question of what MVPs have come from losing teams. Uh, A-Rod, 2003 with the Texas Rangers. They were 71 and 91.
9:45
Uh, you have to then travel all the way to Mike Trout, 2016 for the Angels, 74 and 88. Uh, then Giancarlo Stanton, I forgot about him, 2017 with the Marlins, 77 and 85.
10:03
Trout again in 2019 with the Angels, 72 and 90. What's that four so far? Yeah. Shohei, 2021, Dodgers, 77 and 85. Excuse me, Angels, not Dodgers. That's five. And that...
10:16
Oh, and Shohei again in 2023 with the Angels, 73 and 89. So out of 50, out of 50, six MVPs total, six have been on teams with losing records, and most of those are guys named Shohei and Trout.
10:34
So the Astros, long story short, better pick it up, because if he doesn't end up winning the Triple Crown, then he becomes vulnerable. Hmm. If he wins the Triple Crown, I don't care what his record is.
10:47
I think- He's winning it. I think this is fascinating because I think great job by you laying out that situation. But I, I... Okay, I could, I can counter that even a little bit though of the, of the, okay, is it...
11:01
It's not this black and white, right? 'Cause every year, uh, it's not as black and white of, of does team success matter. It also matters who else is in this race, right?
11:11
And I just don't know that there's that many other compelling cases, right? There isn't. Yeah. To, to, to knock him o- out of the way.
11:18
A- and I think the other one, just to, uh, with all the names you just rattled off, eight, what'd you say, eight times total? But how many- Six... six, okay. How many in the last 10 years, 15 years, right?
11:31
This, it's all but one or all but two that you just said. I know we're saying Ohtani and Trout- It's, it's in the last 10 years.
11:36
In the last, in the last 10 years it's, it's Trout and Shohei with one Stanton year thrown in there. One Stanton year. So I, I mean, it's, it's a lot in the last 10 years though.
11:44
Like that co- w- with how, how many total there is. Yeah, you're right. It is. But again, their names are Shohei and Trout, right? Mm-hmm.
11:51
So it's, it's, they're kind of their own category of considered the best player in baseball at the time. Right.
11:59
And I don't know that Yordan, as great as he is, in the, you know, in the c- in the common casual just sort of, you know, thinking of baseball is considered by far the best player in baseball.
12:11
He's not quite that category.
12:13
Again, if he wins the Triple Crown, a, a stat, a, a, a mythical accolade that we just kind of made up But because we made it up, and between 1967 and 20 tw- uh, 2013, when Miguel Cabrera won it, 2012 or 2013, I can't remember, um, 20 thir- 13, I wanna say...
12:33
uh, 2012. 2013, I think it was. That was, again, it was s- 46 years between doing it, so it became a big deal. We haven't had one since, and I think if you win, you automatically win, no matter what your team record is.
12:49
But the Astros, this just in, not really good at baseball. They just got swept by the Orioles. They do have an easy schedule between now and the All-Star break. That actually matters towards [laughs] MVP- Yeah...
13:02
believe it or not, in some strange way, if you look back at the numbers. But right now, based on his numbers alone, outside of team records, he's a sh- he, he is absolutely winning it if the vote were held today.
13:15
No doubt about it. We'll do a couple Cy Youngs, AL and NL, on the other side, but Adam Burke joins us next to talk baseball, his plays, numbers game. VSiN. You're here because you want an edge.
13:26
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13:42
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13:55
That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
14:00
Make a smart buy on the off-road-ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest-lasting trucks.
14:07
Built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
14:14
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
14:21
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
14:30
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you can trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
14:39
From a great deal today to a great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places.
14:51
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15:45
Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin here on The Numbers Game. Um, Kelly, you wanna do... Uh, oh, ladies and gentlemen, we have Adam Burke, who has appeared before our eyes. Numbers Game.
15:54
He's the glue that holds this whole operation together, and in fact, that guide that I just talked about and, uh, the college football guide heading forward, all the guides that we do, he is the man who steers the ship on all of them.
16:05
Again, vsin.com/subscribe for those. It's Adam Burke, everybody, @skatingtripods on Twitter. Adam, good morning, sir. How we doing, gentlemen? How you doing, man?
16:15
Just, uh- Are you, are you, are you in full college football guide mode at this point? What's going on? Yeah, pretty much. Uh, I gave myself a pretty heavy workload on the college football guide.
16:25
You know, we had Zachary Cohen covering Wimbledon for us, and NBA Summer League, and all of that. So, you know, added a little bit more to my plate with the writing side of this thing.
16:34
Gonna start putting it all together, editing it here this week. So really looking forward to having that out. Um, about halfway done with the Sun Belt. It's the last conference I gotta finish up.
16:43
Just did my power ratings over the weekend. So looking forward to the start of the college football season and that college football guide coming out here on Monday, August 3rd.
16:52
Monday, August 3rd, same day as the, uh, MLB trade deadline.
16:55
Uh, do you wanna give us one, you don't have to, like, go completely deep dive in on this, but one thing that you, uh, wrote about that you felt was a little maybe even surprising to you once you got into it?
17:09
Yeah, um, you know, one team that I, I already put a futures play in on is Clemson to win the ACC. Uh, I think this is a bounce-back year for the Tigers here. You know, uh, Garrett Riley was the scapegoat, right?
17:20
I mean, Dabo Swinney threw Garrett Riley under the bus, backed it over him multiple times, the offensive coordinator.
17:26
Now he's reunited with Chad Morris, who's a guy that he had worked with in the past, you know, was in his earlier times there at Clemson. Uh, I think that this is going to be a team that really takes a big step forward.
17:36
Cade Clubnik actually regressed throughout the course of his four-year career there, uh, in Clemson. So, you know, I think it, their offense is probably better. The wide receiver group is still really good.
17:46
Uh, the defense probably in line for a bounce back. Miami lost a lot from last season.
17:51
Not totally buying in on Louisville, because Jeff Brohm always loses a couple of games throughout the course of the year that he shouldn't.
17:58
I think there's a good chance that Clemson kind of returns back to prominence in the conference. So I was about 14 to 1 when I took them to win the ACC.
18:05
I'd have to check an updated price now, but I think that one's definitely worthwhile here in what is, again, the weakest of the Power Four conferences, despite what Pat Narduzzi's been saying over the last couple of days.
18:15
Still 14 to 1 at DraftKings- To baseball... is Clemson. So 14 to 1 at DraftKings. We had Aaron Shots on the show, uh, earlier, Adam, and, uh, it came up Who's the worst team in football?
18:27
He did not have the Arizona Cardinals, who are aligned as the worst team in football based on season win total. He had your Cleveland Browns. What say you? I mean, I, look, I get it, right?
18:39
I mean, the most important position on the field, they don't really have an answer for, but man, the rest of this roster's pretty damn good.
18:46
You know, I mean, they got a lot of talent and athleticism on, at the wide receiver position coming out of the draft.
18:51
We'll see how Quinson Judkins comes back from his injury, but I mean, they've rebuilt the offensive line. The defense is still really, really good.
18:58
Uh, it's the most important position on the field that's a problem, so I can understand why people are low on this Browns team.
19:04
But I think in terms of the other 52 guy- or the other, well, I guess we'll say 50 or 51 guys, they're a pretty good football team.
19:11
But the two guys that are gonna be the starter and the backup quarterback, uh, not pretty good. So I think that's really the big reason why. But you know, I was texting with some buddies about this here recently.
19:21
This is gonna be one of those things where the Browns screw around and go 6 and 11, 7 and 10, push themselves out of a top five pick, and then they gotta make a trade to get themselves to get a quarterback.
19:31
[laughs] Probably Arch Manning, 'cause that's who Jimmy Haslam's gonna want. Um- Uh-huh...
19:34
it's just, it, it's gonna be quintessential Cleveland, where they're gonna be just good enough to probably not get the guy that they want in the draft. I, I love, I'm always tickled by the defeatism of everything.
19:46
By the way, do you want LeBron back in Cleveland, Adam? Um, I mean, I'm not really a big NBA guy, so it doesn't really matter that much to me. But I, I do think everything coming full circle makes sense.
19:58
You know, I mean, he had to rehab his image coming out of the first decision where, you know, then he goes back to Cleveland, gets the city a title. Uh, and I could see him going back again.
20:07
Uh, but also I think there's probably a lot of allure to him for playing with Steph Curry. So I don't know. I, I, I could see Golden State over Cleveland, but honestly, doesn't matter to me.
20:17
I just, uh, I just think the Cavs gotta figure out a way to win in the playoffs, 'cause they have good regular seasons, but Donovan Mitchell just doesn't really have the, the legs and the body when you get to, uh, you know, April and May.
20:28
So that's what they really gotta figure out. All right, to Major League Baseball.
20:32
Give me a, uh, give me an Adam Burke sort of off the beaten path, off the conventional wisdom path take moving forward here for the rest of the regular season.
20:42
Is there a team that you feel most aren't thinking about that will get to the playoffs? Is there a team that you feel will collapse and will not make the playoffs that most think will?
20:53
Fortunately, I said this a couple weeks ago, I thought Boston was gonna [laughs] make the playoffs, and I mean, they're on some kind of incredible run now, so that's just kind of the hive mind thought at this point, not exactly something that's off the beaten path by any means.
21:05
Um, I still think Detroit has a really, really good shot to, to win the American League Central here.
21:10
Uh, you talk about the defeatist Cleveland point of view, yeah, we can kind of play up that angle a little bit if we want to. But look, guys, you know, I talked about this in a couple of different places here.
21:20
Um, you know, there were some seed markets out there, uh, over the All-Star break in terms of American League number two and number three seed.
21:26
Detroit was number two, or was 35 to 1 for the number two seed, 22 to 1 for the number three seed. If they win this division, they are not going to be the number one seed in the American League.
21:36
I mean, that's gonna go to whoever wins the East, whether it's the Yankees or the Rays. There's just too much ground to make up for everybody else.
21:42
So I thought the Tigers at 35 to 1 to be the number two seed or 22 to 1 to be the number three seed, a much better alternate way of playing them than just taking seven to one to win the division.
21:53
Uh, and I do think that, you know, the White Sox, their pitching staff worries me long-term here in the second half. Maybe they get some reinforcements at the deadline. I don't know. We'll see.
22:02
Also, a very left-handed heavy lineup. They gotta find some right-handed hitting help at the deadline. We'll see if they're able to accomplish those two things.
22:09
And Cleveland, I mean, it just isn't a very good baseball team. You know, they win games just because that's kind of what they do. They find ways in the late innings, but still a bad lineup.
22:19
You know, they've only used five, now six starting pitchers all year long with Logan Allen getting a start in Saturday's double header. Like, that's probably not sustainable in the second half. Someone's gonna get hurt.
22:30
Someone's gonna get dinged up. And then we'll see how José Ramírez comes back, 'cause the hamate injury can zap your power and can take a while for you to come back 100%.
22:38
So you know he's gonna hurry his way back 'cause the team needs him, uh, but we'll see how effective he is when he does come back. Yeah, it's so interesting with baseball futures. Take a team like the Red Sox.
22:49
I have them in July at a big number, 80 to 1, but so folks who are, you know, trying to scramble to do other bets with the Red Sox, some said to win the AL East.
22:59
I don't think you make that bet because they might get Ranger Suárez back soon and Trevor Story, but there is no timetable for Garrett Crochet or for Roman Anthony currently s- and their schedule after July gets really hard.
23:13
So I don't think an AL East bet is a good one.
23:15
But I think an AL bet is a great one, because if they can somehow get in, those two, Crochet and Anthony, might be back, probably will be back, and you have that eight, nine close sort of like akin to the Kansas City Royals seven, eight, nine close of Herrera, Davis, and who am I forgetting back in the day, Adam?
23:34
Who was in the ninth inning back then? Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis, and, oh, anyway, seven, eight, nine. Uh, wasn't So- Anyway, back end-... wasn't Soria, right? Oh, no, it wasn't Soria. I'm, it's escaping me now.
23:46
But anyway, a back end, you know, way to play baseball to build it from the back up. So I, I... That's what makes baseball so interesting, p- particularly this American League, which is so flat-Earthed at this point.
23:57
I mean, there is really no great team in the American League. What did you land on today, by the way? Yeah, and I think real quick, just a point about that, as you mentioned, I mean, the trade deadline two weeks away.
24:09
Like, there aren't a lot of sellers.
24:11
So I'm really curious to see who in the American League can get, you know, tangibly better at the trade deadline and get some kind of impact level player, because probably not going to be a whole lot of those available So I guess we'll wait and see.
24:23
Uh, look, I think today's a really tough day in the MLB because you've got a lot of starting pitchers that haven't pitched in 10, 12 days because of the All-Star break.
24:30
So you don't know exactly who's going to be sharp, who's going to come back in good form. You even got a guy in Jameson Taillon, uh, you know, a short favorite for the Cubs, but he's coming off the injured list, too.
24:41
So I think it's kind of a tough day in Major League Baseball.
24:43
The one play I do like actually is fading a guy coming back off of injury, to take the Marlins for the first five with Jansen Junk on the mound against Reniel Blanco.
24:52
Blanco coming back from Tommy John, hasn't pitched at the MLB level since May of last year. I think it could be a really tough thing for a guy who already doesn't have a great control profile.
25:03
Also a pitch to contact guy, a lot of fly balls.
25:06
You know, if he's not sharp, he can give up some runs and have some pretty bad starts, and Jansen Junk has been outstanding against right-handed batters so far this season.
25:15
Only lefty of consequence in that Houston lineup is Yordan Alvarez. So I like the Marlins for the first five at even money in that one tonight down in Houston.
25:24
All right, Adam, back into the lab you go for the college football preview guide. We thank you as always for all your efforts on all those guides and beyond, man. Thank you. Appreciate it, boys. Have a good one.
25:35
Adam Burke, everybody, @skatingtripods on Twitter. We'll come back. AL Cy, NL Cy, this is pretty fascinating as well. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
25:46
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
26:02
Oh, Kelly, the Circus Survivor documentary is back- Let's go... for another season, and this one's bigger than ever. Seven all-new episodes kick off every Wednesday starting July 22nd at 9:00 PM Eastern.
26:16
That is this Wednesday, two days from now, 9:00 PM Eastern. Episode one takes you inside the growth of the most e- electrifying contest in sports betting.
26:23
Now with 18.7 million on the line and the massive new Grand Decimo format raising the stakes even higher. Follow the sharp minds and bold personalities who think they've got what it takes to go the distance.
26:33
Whether you play Circus Survivor yourself or just love the drama of a season-long grind, it's must-watch TV. Check it out every Wednesday starting next week at 9:00 PM Eastern on VSiN.
26:42
It is, uh, documenting last year's Circus Survivor and last year's Grand Decimo. Uh, we all got a sneak preview of, uh, episode number one, Kelly.
26:51
I am on, uh, I think in the first 30 seconds, I'm on for 10 seconds, and then, uh, they throw me in the penalty box again. Okay. I think that's what happens. Yeah, I haven't got it yet. Yeah.
26:58
I know we, me and you have an early version in our, in our inbox. I haven't gotten to it yet, but can't wait for the Survivor doc. Uh, I can't wait to see Fat Kelly, 'cause Fat Kelly's gonna show up at some point, right?
27:08
I, I think. You know, unless I get cut out completely. We'll see. Did a couple of those. [laughs] How about, how about this, Gil? Yes, sir.
27:15
Last week, last week for the doc for this would be this upcoming next, the next doc, I shot for over an hour, an hour with Matt Brown and James Farah on something special for the next one. Long tease- Really?...
27:28
deal tease on the documentary there. Really? Yes. Really? Over an hour. So if pe- people- Over an hour? Yeah. Wow. People out there liked the Kelly Bidlin acting skills back in the commer- the VSiN commercial.
27:40
[laughs] You're getting a lot. You're getting a lot on this one. More Bidlin, more action. Yeah. All right. Here we, uh, tweets, beating the book.
27:49
Ace to Cardano, "I thought about the week zero college football game from a few years ago." Was it Army, he says? "When, uh, when England went up 2-nil against France in the third place game, just kept hitting the over.
28:01
The line never caught up. Beautiful thing." Ace, you played it beautifully. Well done.
28:06
[laughs] I wish I was as smart because I kept saying, "Boy, this seems like a lot of goals really quickly," and I never got around to doing it.
28:13
Bosch in Chicago, "Third place individual stats should not count towards World Cup stats as those teams were eliminated from the tournament.
28:21
Play for placing, fine, but individual stats should not count towards World Cup totals." This is, I, I don't disagree with you, Bosch. I don't disagree with you at all. Yeah.
28:30
But them's the rules, and so for us as betters, it is great for us to sort of understand that and exploit.
28:39
By the way, Kelly, I failed to give you the names of all those eight, uh, players, or the seven besides Mbappe where they, uh, scored in the third place games- Yeah... and ended up winning the, uh, golden boot.
28:50
Thought you'd love to hear them. Sure. What do you got? Um, uh, 1938, Leonidas from Brazil. Sure. Who could forget? Uh, sure. 1958, Just Fontaine from France. He's come up, 'cause he, he, he scored 13 that year. Mm-hmm.
29:04
The record. Gerd Muller of Germany in 1970. Grzegorz Lato of Poland in 1974. Wow. Salvatore Schillaci of Italy in 1990. Davor, Davor Suker of Croatia in 1998.
29:21
Thomas Muller of Germany in 2010, and then Mbappe this year. Yeah, I, I knew, like, two of those names. I knew, like, two of those. The, uh- Yeah...
29:28
I, I was kinda laughing while you were reading that tweet, Gil, because completely 100% agree. Totally. They should not be counting stats. Now- No way...
29:36
where does this rank o- on the list of hills that I'm willing to die on? Really far down, 'cause I don't really care that much. [laughs] Really far down. Totally agree. But he's right. He's absolutely right.
29:45
He's completely right. But hey, we're just here to make money. Yep. So you just gotta know the rules.
29:50
Montreal Max, "Actually Gil, Madonna is back now with a number one album, Confessions 2, released two weeks ago that also had 13 million streams on Spotify.
30:01
This marked the platform's biggest opening for a solo female artist whose career began [laughs] in the 1980s." [laughs] Is this true? Wow. Is he just making this up? Wow. I don't know. You'd have to have- No EP-...
30:11
Chris Foster work on that one I apologize to Mrs. Madonna. No emu Doug. Schefter, I think he means Adam, suggested the many new OC play callers will be an issue this year in the NFL. Good point, he says. Yeah.
30:25
Oh, thank you, Mike Rouse. Greg Holland was the third relief pitcher for the Royals. Yes, he was. Uh, he did the th- he was the ninth inning guy, too.
30:32
It was Herrera seven, Wade Davis eight, Holland nine when the Royals won the World Series a decade ago. And Iowa Hawkeyes, the world feels in better balance today with Gil back from vacation. Thank you, I appreciate it.
30:43
But again, shout out to Dustin Sweetelson, who we love, uh, doing the show in the morning as well. We also love Matt Brown doing the show. We love everybody who does the show, uh, when I'm not there.
30:53
Uh, American League Cy and National League Cy, 'cause we just looked at AL MVP.
30:57
Let's start with the American League, Kelly, 'cause I think, again, just a heat check on this award where this has gotten tight since the last time. It's very toight- Toight... with the American League. Like a tiger.
31:08
K- yeah. Cam Schlittler of the New York Yankees has gone from the last time we talked to this time- Yep... which is about three, four weeks ago. He's gone from plus 115 to plus 140.
31:20
Meanwhile, Dylan Cease trying to be the third tribesman in history to win the Cy Young. You know what I mean, Sandy Koufax and Steve Stone. Dylan Cease would be the third. He goes from, let me get this right.
31:36
He goes, Kelly, from plus 200 to plus 135, so he's actually the short shot by 10 cents- Mm-hmm... over Schlittler now. Now, here's the thing. I kind of agree with the move.
31:49
Kind of agree with the move because right now... Remember, last time we talked about Schlittler, it was like he's number one in everything. Well, he's number one in ERA, 2.01. But if you got into, like, some of the...
32:02
Oh, excuse me, uh, two, uh, pardon me. He's number one in ERA, 2.05. Cease is second at 2.56. But all these other stats, expected ERA, fielding independent, um, xFIP. Actually, fielding indep- uh, let me say that again.
32:18
E- expected ERA, fielding independent, Cease is, is one now and Schlittler is two. Um, [lips smack] so it's, it's getting... Okay. Let m- actually, let me make this clear. ERA, Schlittler one, Cease two. Mm-hmm.
32:35
Expected ERA, Schlittler one, Cease two. Fielding independent, uh, it's Cease number one. He's third, Schlittler is. Ex- eg- xFIP, Schlittler is first.
32:51
No, Cease is first, Schlittler is two. Uh, my, my writing is all messed up on this, so I got messed up. WAR, Cease one, Schlittler two. Um, K's, Cease one, Schlittler three. WHIP, uh, Cease still has the advantage there.
33:09
So it's... Ex- excuse me, uh, Schlittler still has the advantage there.
33:12
So again, what used to be all of Schlittler's, I botched that, but what used to be all of Schlittler's, now Cease leads in a lot of those categories.
33:18
But remember, the Tom Tango formula, which is called 32 of the last 38 of these, [chuckles] is really what matters. And when you get to the Tom Tango formula, Schlittler still has a big lead.
33:33
He's at 55 points in the Tango formula, which really has to do with baseball card stats like wins and K's and innings pitched. And Cease, uh, he's still at 42.
33:46
By the way, he's in third place because Sonny Gray's in second place. So the Red Sox at 43.8. So according to the Tango formula, Schlittler is still by far the favorite. But I don't know, man.
33:57
If you go through all these categories, Cease is kind of on par, just not the ones that seem to matter to voters, I guess, is what Tango is reflecting. So keep that in mind.
34:07
By the way, Gray has moved up because he had eight consecutive quality starts, a 1.93 ERA over that span.
34:14
Cease has closed the gap in large part because his last two outings, seven innings, no earned runs, three hits, nine K's, one walk at Seattle.
34:23
And then he went eight innings, was, was flirting with a no-hitter at the Giants here in San Francisco. Eight innings, no earned runs, finally gave up a hit to begin the ninth. 11 K's and three walks. So
34:36
super close, but not according to Tango. In the National League, well- Real quick, though, uh... Jacob deGrom. Yeah... is pitching records gonna come into play in this market at all? Yeah.
34:47
Their, their win-loss record, you mean? Yeah, yeah. Or team records? Uh, eh, I, you know, both, but I guess it's, it's more what team record under that pitcher, so mainly their win-loss record.
34:55
Yeah, no, I'm, I'm glad you asked. I'm glad you asked. Uh, first of all, Schlittler is nine and five. Um, your wins do matter in the Tango formula, but let's, let's do exactly... I'm glad you brought it up.
35:06
What we did for MVP was does your team record matter? Mm-hmm. And we said six out of the last 50 has come from a losing team when it came to MVP. So keep that in mind with Yordan, Alvarez, and the Astros.
35:19
When it comes to Cy Young, again, going back to the year 2000, 50 MVPs, AL and NL, eight times a Cy Young winner has come from a losing team. Eight times. So it's 16%- Yeah...
35:36
since the year 2000. So does that give an advantage to, you know, anybody in the AL over anybody else? Well, you gotta keep that in mind.
35:47
If Toronto ends up with a terrible record, if the Yankees continue to slide, like what matters? Who's, who's, you know... Who are the guys in the last 25 years? Shohei again, right, in 2023 with the Angels.
36:01
Um, Shohei in 2021 with the Angels. Again, won, won the, uh [lips smack] excuse me, that's, uh, those were MVPs. Pardon me. I'm looking at the size. The size, yeah, it's eight guys, but it's...
36:14
Most recently it was, um, I believe, let's see I mean, the Blue Jays have the fifth worst record in the American League right now.
36:23
46 and 53 I mean, you have to f- you have to go way back in the American League specifically.
36:27
Of the eight guys, only two were from the American League, and that's-- You have to go all the way back to Felix Hernandez in 2010- Mm-hmm... for the Mariners, and Zack Greinke in 2009 for the Royals. Okay. So
36:41
you gotta pay attention to the team records for Cy Young, as it turns out also. Keep that in mind, and that's, that makes this one a little more tenuous. We'll do NL Cy Young. I'll do a better job on the other side.
36:50
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game.
37:07
Gil Alexander live from San Francisco. Kelly back in Las Vegas. Uh, real quick, our final tweets of the day. Patrick Kelly, "Less middlin', more bidlin'." Sounds like a show. He also adds, "Have a great day, guys.
37:17
Thank you as always for ANG. No more various drinks for hydration break day drinking. Back to the bottled water," that is. That's right. Uh,
37:25
Three Jacques, H3131, "Gil, it's only fair that you now each, uh, end each show this week with the line, 'The show is over. Say goodbye,' in tribute to Madonna's [chuckles] hit song Take a Bow."
37:35
Yeah, we're not gonna do that. Uh, we don't have many bets today. This is the, this is officially the, the post-World Cup, uh, moment, where it's only baseball. Football not yet here.
37:46
We don't have many bets, but of course I have tennis every day. Um, the only one that started after the show began, 'cause Maya Sherif as a plus 157 dog, she won for us at shops that grade after the first set.
37:59
She was up 6-4 4-love on Paula Badosa, and Paula Badosa took her toys and went home, which is really-- Can I just tell you something, Kelly? 'Cause I think the theme of this segment is gonna be, um, gauche moves. Yeah.
38:11
I'm being kind. Yeah. I would've said a different word. Um, but Paula Badosa, let Maya Sherif have her tournament-winning match where she gets to shake your hand properly at the end of a set. Give her that.
38:23
But instead, you quit with two games left. Maya Sherif wins the tournament. We win our bet at graded shops after one set, but we don't win it. We get refunded at all the others.
38:32
But good God, Paula Badosa, just play two more games for the girl. Uh, Titouan Dro- And it's gotta be so brutal, man. It's just such a bizarrely- Oh... unique tennis thing, right?
38:41
Like, it's just-- Imagine if a football team down, like, 38 to nothing was just like, "Well, we don't want anybody else to get hurt. Let's just leave." It's like, "Wait, what?"
38:48
It's only the, it's only the second time Maya Sherif has won a tournament in her whole career. And yeah, does she mind in the end? Uh, you know, probably not, but there is a moment where you get to- Right...
38:58
like hit that match point, which is just... Anyway. Yeah, I'm with you. Anyway, if you, if you had it at first set gradings, uh, you win that. Titouan Drogue won as a plus 101 dog versus Camilo Ugo Carabelli.
39:09
Going for the clean sheet with Bit Kozheva, uh, Bit Kopriva against Ignacio Buze. We are in the third set, but we are down a break early two to one, so we'll see if we can get that home. Uh- That's all I have.
39:21
And of course the, and of course the Red Sox at 80 to 1 on a 13-game winning streak, Kelly. Three wins ahead of the Orioles and the Brewers. They start a three-game set with the Orioles today, though. Let's go Sox.
39:32
Get the 14. Gil, let's go, man. We'll be on Red Sox watch here the rest of the month. I w- I was just gonna comment, I, I, on the, on the tennis names. B- you know, Bit coming out of nowhere. He's-- That's a great name.
39:42
And then, uh, oh, Camilo, man. That's like, uh, that's like a top 10 tennis name on tour. That's a great one. Um- Camilo Ugo Carabelli. Yeah, that's a fantastic name. Top 10 name on the tour.
39:52
Uh, okay, I only got one, and this is from last week. Chad Tracy, 28 to 1 AL Manager of the Year. T- tailing, uh, Mr.
39:58
Joe Sheehan on that, who will be on the show tomorrow, so we may well talk to him about that a little bit. Okay.
40:03
Uh, since I did such a bad job on AL Cy Young 'cause my own writing confused me as to where Cease and Schlittler were one and two, just keep in mind again the point about do Cy Youngs come from losing teams?
40:15
And of, again, the last 50 Cy's from the year 2000, 25 in both leagues, only eight, once again, have won the Cy Young from losing teams. I mentioned the two from the American League.
40:28
Uh, once again, those were, you know, back in the day, right? You have to go back to the year 2010. Felix Hernandez famously didn't win many games. I think he won 12 games that year too, if not mistaken.
40:43
Uh, Seattle was 61 and 101 that year, and Zack Greinke in 2009 with the Royals, they were 65 and 97. There's only been six in the National League in those 25 years.
40:52
But remember, Kelly, one of them was Paul Skenes with the Pirates last year. Mm-hmm. So it's not impossible, but does Dylan Cease... Like, let's say this plays out the way that it's been.
41:04
The Blue Jays are in last place in the AL East. If all things are equal between Schlittler and Cease, are they really gonna give it to Dylan Cease on a last place team? Yeah, it's, it's- I don't think so...
41:15
this where, like, we could sit here and, and argue how much does it matter, right? But I think, like- Right... it matters. It matters to some degree. It matters. Yeah. It matters to some degree.
41:24
By the way, uh, Adam Burke, uh, Marlins today, first five at even money at the Astros. Forgot to include that one. And Greg Peterson, speaking of baseball, uh, he had his fab five as well today.
41:36
Um, he had the Guardians plus 106 versus the Twins. He's on the Buccos, the Pirates, plus 110 versus the Yankees. Mets, Brewers over seven. White Sox, Rangers over seven and a half.
41:45
And the Tigers, Cubs at Wrigley is going under 12 at the confines today. Um, there you go from Greg Peterson, who we did not get a dating update from today, but nonetheless, he was kind enough to give us his fab five.
41:57
Um, okay. So NL Cy Young, by the way, real quick, um, Miz has gone from a minus 650 favorite the last time we did this, Kelly- Mm-hmm... to now being a minus 360 favorite.
42:11
I don't really get why it has been chopped in half. The man still leads the major leagues in ERA, expected ERA, fielding independent, xFIP, WAR, WHIP, K percentage, K's. I mean, it just goes on and on.
42:25
This man is having an epic season. His Tango number is 62.2 Second place is Christopher Sanchez at 52.1, 10 full points behind him. Then it's Chris Sale at 50.8. Guess what?
42:40
The person in fourth place isn't even listed at DraftKings. Have any idea who that is? Who? You, I, it's, it's unfair to even ask you. I got no idea. Fo- Foster Griffin of the Washington Nationals doesn't- Ooh...
42:53
even have a listing. He's fourth place at Tango at 45.8. But anyway, MiZiorowski, I would argue it's too low at minus 360. Ah, that was just- Yeah...
43:02
the swing in odds, I guess, was just confirmation on his injury, right? Like, there was some injury concern, right? And that's why it dipped back.
43:09
Yeah, 'cause he di- yeah, the All S- yeah, he dipped out of the All-Star Game, and yeah, so. I think it's just that, yeah. I think if, if you bought low on him, good on you, 'cause yeah, minus 360.
43:17
And the Brewers, and the Brewers certainly, yeah, and the Brewers certainly don't have the team record problem that, say, a Dylan Cease has- Right... in the American League. Before we go, a, a couple loose ends in golf.
43:28
What did you wanna bring up? Oh, I got two golf things to bring up with you. One of them, one I've been sitting on since Thursday, 'cause there's only you to have this conversation with.
43:34
I love Dustin, Dustin did a great job, but this is such a conversation for you.
43:39
Did you catch, by any chance, the post-round press conference or little press, press area thing with Jackson Subeer, who had the first round lead at the British Open? I did not. Okay. I did not.
43:50
Someone did the, some reporter did their digging on, on young Jackson Subeer, okay? And man, my guy, Jackson Subeer, has been trying to hide the country club-ness, Gil.
44:01
Old Jackson Subeer, okay, doesn't really check the box. Real name for Jackson Subeer, John Wetherington Subeer III. [laughs] John Wetherington Subeer III, and he goes by Jackson Subeer. Yeah.
44:18
And anyway- Yeah, Jackson Subeer's not much better, but I, it's better than John Wetherington Subeer- III... that's for sure. Yes, for sure. It's- Wetherington. You buried Wetherington, Jackson. I see it, I see it.
44:27
I di- I didn't grow up with too many of him, so. [laughs] I had, I had to save that one for you. And then Scottie Scheffler, I know you did catch this. Man. Yes.
44:37
Scheffler Saturday, when it's all the talk about Bryson DeChambeau, and I think rightfully so, uh, of getting the stars' input on this, and the, the questions have to be asked.
44:48
Scottie Scheffler teasing to everybody that he had major things to say about this, but didn't think it was the right time c- 'cause we were in the middle of a major, which I respected that part, but I was like, "Oh man, I can't wait till after Sunday to see what he has to say."
45:02
I don't know what it was, Gil, but he dialed it back big time after Sunday, 'cause he did not say that much about Bryson DeChambeau after the round, besides, uh, c- besides, hey, he's known Bryson for a long time and he didn't think the true intent was there, and maybe there, maybe there needs to be more rules officials out there.
45:18
I don't know. That really bugged me, 'cause this is a guy, uh, that Rory kind of got shoved into the lead the PGA Tour role- Yes, he did... a little bit. You know, he kind of got pushed.
45:29
That really wasn't his choice, and he kind of had to play that role.
45:32
And I think at any time over the past several years, if Scottie Scheffler wanted to speak up and kind of take that, uh, re- responsibility on, he easily could have, and Sc- and Rory McIlroy probably would've gladly given him that opportunity.
45:46
And you don't, you just don't really hear Scottie say anything that controversial, and I, I, he got my ears perked up on Saturday, 'cause I was like, "Scheffler's got something to say. I'm ready to listen."
45:56
And then whatever it was, it really felt like he backed off of it on Sunday. Well, that's a good point. Scottie Scheffler said, uh, Bryson may be, I'll paraphrase, Bryson may be a lot of things, but a cheater he is not.
46:08
Um, why he felt the need to say that at all, you, i- is, is, who knows, but you, you make a good point. Oh, now you're, now you feel like you should say something about something? Mm. And you had a, right.
46:18
And then he didn't say anything. On, on the other- Then he didn't say anything... on the other, on the other hand, you know, Rory going after Bryson DeChambeau and saying, "You know, uh,
46:27
I, I'm not really f- fond of this guy," Rory is not without, you know, his criticisms as, as well, or people can critique Rory. Swiped a phone from a fan's hand, uh, we remember that.
46:42
Uh, stormed out of the parking lot at the 2023 Ryder Cup. Um- Oh, whatever Honda Classic I covered that he withdrew with a toothache. Yeah, that was cool.
46:50
Yelled, yelled at a fan a couple months ago at the PGA Championship. So I mean, it's not like your behavior- Mm... has been pristine. Now, that's different from maybe improving your lie on the golf course.
46:58
So I mean, there's, there's two sides to this. I'm not a Bryson guy either. He's e- Yeah... he's easy to dislike. Um, I was hoping that he would finish within two strokes of the lead. Sad that that didn't happen.
47:10
You know what he is though, Gil? But there's def- 'Cause I can't say any- I'm not a Bryson guy either. He ma- everything he does makes it more entertaining, though. Yes, he does.
47:17
It was one of the most entertaining moments of the Open Championship. Sure was, and, uh, well, people are gonna come down. I like golf having drama, these country club folks being a- It-...
47:27
being angry at each other's off- Rules officials just gotta be better. That, that's unacceptable. That part was unacceptable. Should've happened right then.
47:34
And there's a great point made about, hey, with the better players, every shot is televised. Right. The lesser players, there aren't, so there's all that. We've done all we can do. Prop Points is next.
47:42
Enjoy, from VSiN, the sports betting network.
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