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Jul 22, 2024
A Numbers Game | July 22, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | July 22, 2024 | Hour 1
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44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Good Monday morning to you, it is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you take it to SIM, we appreciate it. Gil Alexander back in the fold.
0:19
Kelly Midlin in the house here. Welcome back. Bart Canada, the T. Thanks, brother. What's happening? Not much. How was, uh, how was DC? How was the nation's capital?
0:28
Well, you know, my mom has, uh- Anything big happen there re- recently? [laughs] Oh, we're getting into that today. [laughs] Jason Weingart emergency election betting segment coming up today.
0:39
A politically, people, this is how we do it on this show. Uh, but thank you for asking. Uh, my mom has lost a step, I'm not gonna lie to you. Uh, can't do the heavy step back like she used to. Mm.
0:48
I see it coming every time now. That was nasty when she used to be able to do that. Yeah. She can't, I mean, she can't hear, she doesn't remember from one day to the next.
0:56
Though I will say this, if a, a keen observer would say that she seems to remember conversations with my brother far greater than she remembers ones with me.
1:04
[laughs] So I would not have predicted this development, so it's a little disconcerting. But, uh, it, we took 10 and a half hours to get there. I feel like I could have predicted that. Really?
1:14
[laughs] Yeah, well, I've, I've heard you, I've heard you- Maybe 'cause that's right... y- y- you make a jab or two before. Yeah. That's true. The problem was I had a 10 and a half hour delay.
1:21
Took me, took me literally 15 hours to get to DC from here because apparently when I, uh, when I reserved- Oh, gosh...
1:27
when I reserved my American Airlines flight from Vegas to DC, you know how you can, like, filter based on one stop, non-stop? Yeah. Apparently I filtered based on two deplanings.
1:36
I was like, "I'd like the flight- [laughs]... where I have to board and get off twice before we do it the third time." Yeah.
1:42
I feel like our live texting of this event was, like, three months ago, and yet- It does feel like that... yeah, it was only, what, uh, 10 days ago here, so.
1:48
Oh, no, I, that's so true 'cause we're doing the, uh, July, our, our MLB July wins update coming up. It feels like we made that bet a month and a half ago. [laughs] 'Cause of the All-Star Break.
1:59
Yeah, anyway, it's 10 and a half hours late. Other than that it was great, man. Some mosquitoes got me. You know, the ushe. Mosquitoes, ugh. The ushe. Uh, on the show today we do, we are gonna talk election betting odds.
2:10
Um, apolitically speaking, I know there's always gonna be somebody out there's, "I know what you thi-" No you don't. Uh, we're gonna talk about it just from a money-making spe- perspective.
2:19
We're gonna, uh, talk about our, our July bet on the Royals, where that stands as we head into the final 10 days of July. John Legace will join us, talks of baseball. Pete Futack on college football.
2:29
Let's talk some SEC today, for God sakes. Samich Samo bombing with us. Um, can I get a tennis play in, a tennis play or two in before we talk about, uh- Of course... the, uh, the open championship?
2:39
Uh, have three plays today. One was a winner overnight on Jana Fett as a slight plus 106 dog.
2:46
Coming up here momentarily, within 10 minutes, you know how tennis start times go, maybe it'll be in a half hour for God sakes, maybe longer, uh, I'm on Astra Sharma. You know Astra Sharma, don't you, Kelly?
2:57
Oh, one of my favorites. She's playing on Clay at the Prague Open. She's playing Magdalena Frech.
3:02
Uh, Astra Sharma with big plus 169 dog yesterday when I put out all these, by the way, all picks from all hosts, all guests, every sport at vsin.com/picks.
3:13
Sharma right now, just making sure that that price is not out of whack. Plus 160 at DraftKings. Plus 151, plus 160, so still playable. I wouldn't play it, like, lower than plus 140, but it's certainly still playable.
3:25
Um, vsin.com/picks, I put these out the night before. So Astra Sharma is the first one. That should start in, in about 10 minutes, and then or thereabouts. And then the next one is on, we're back on hard courts, baby.
3:36
Oh, thank you Lord Jesus Almighty. [laughs] Uh, I'm on, uh, Kozal, Arthur Kozal, uh, a little later on in Atlanta. Atlanta, Georgia. Ooh.
3:45
He's taking on, uh, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, and Kozal was a plus 122 dog when I put it out last night. He's plus 104 now. So again, CLV monster, what could go wrong?
3:59
I- This is, uh- It's kind of teetering on a playable. I, I'll say if you're still plus money, I, I don't know, plus 105 is kind of borderline. I'll let you decide if you wanna play that or not.
4:10
But, uh, plus 122 was the price last night. So Kozal and Sharma not quite at the prices from last night on the, on the vsin.com/picks page, but still playable.
4:18
This is a doozy of a match going on right now between Katinka Von Deichmann and Anna Carolina Schmiedlova. Well done on Schmiedlova. You know, but who did not know [laughs] well done on the other one you don't know.
4:31
[laughs] Yeah. I've never seen that name before. [laughs] There's, there was something in a 125 in Warsaw, what was her name? There was somebody that came up this morning, I'm like, "Who is that?"
4:41
[laughs] Uh- There was a couple names on this one I haven't seen before. [laughs] Yeah, I don't see her anymore now. Where is it? No, I don't see it right now. Uh, okay, golf, let us begin.
4:49
Open championship, Xander Schauffele, everybody.
4:53
Um, in the span of I would say a year, but let's just call it a span of two majors, he has gone from the guy that if you, Kelly, or any of our golf experts would ever bet him to win a major or any big golf tournament- Or any golf tournament...
5:10
it w- or any golf tournament, it would kind of elicit this groan. Mm. Right? You're like, "Oh, really? You're doing that again?"
5:16
Well, uh, back-to-back major championships now for Xander Schauffele, who does it, by the way, back-to-back closing final rounds, 65s that is, when it comes- Twice this year, not back-to-back...
5:30
back-to-back final rounds of majors. He did that in the PGA and in the Open Championship, correct? 65 in the final round of each. For, for the majors that he won, yeah, there was a US Open in between.
5:39
Oh, I'm sorry, correct, of the majors that he won. Pardon me. Uh, he becomes the, only the second player ever to have multiple final rounds of 65 or better en route to major championship wins.
5:49
The only other person, Jack. Jack Nicklaus, 1967 US Open. Who could forget that, Kelly? Uh, in the 1986 Masters, which obviously was the iconic, "Yes, sir," um, championship for Jack.
6:01
Uh, the green jacket in 1986, he had final round 65s. That's the list, Jack and Xander. Um- Always good when you can join a list with, uh, Jack Nicklaus on it How about this list?
6:11
He joins Tiger and Jordan Spieth as the only golfers to finish top eight in all four majors in a season since 1980.
6:19
Uh, US golfers now, along with Bryson DeChambeau's US Open and Scottie Scheffler's Masters, US golfers sweep the majors for the first time since 1982. How about that? 42 years since that's happened. Yeah.
6:33
Craig Stadler won the Masters that year, The Walrus. Ray Floyd won the, uh, PGA, and Tom Watson won the sixth and seventh of his eight major championships, the US Open and Open Championship of that year.
6:44
We used to call it the British Open. That was the, uh, that was the US Open where he... Or, excuse me, was it the British or, or the US?
6:50
I believe it was the US Open where he famously chipped in at 17 to, uh, steal it from Jack Nicklaus.
6:55
They were actually tied, and, uh, Jack thought he was gonna at least force a playoff because Watson was in the deep rough, and then he chipped out at 17, and then he birdied 18 to win it by two.
7:07
Um- I think of all the accomplishments you've just read or records- Yeah, what's the best of all of that? The, like, the, for this to be the first time that the US has swept the majors since 1982 is, like,
7:20
th- that one is maybe the most odd to me just because of how dominant Tiger Woods was for so, for such a long period of time. Right, 'cause you could bingo square him into a bunch. Right. Yeah. But no.
7:32
I mean, not to say it's a great worldwide game. Like, obviously it hasn't been- Great global game...
7:36
for a long time, but it's just, I, when you think of Tiger and you think of 2000, you know, 2000s and, you know, that, that range, uh, that, that time period, it's just, man, there was a lot of great American, uh, great American golfers with him at the top.
7:49
Xander wins it going away. He birdied three of the last six holes. Um, Scottie Scheffler was in it until the ninth hole yesterday when he double bogied.
8:00
Brutal putting, uh, performance on the, uh, green there at the ninth. So he was, you know, kind of done right then and there, his chances to win the tournament.
8:09
Um, sure, he could have had a comeback, but for all intents and purposes, he was done right there. And there was obviously other leaders during the day. Uh, Justin Rose had his moment. Um,
8:19
Thurston had his moment as well. Thurston Lawrence had his moment. Yep, Lawrence, a bit of Marshall down the stretch. Yep. But it was Xander going away. Congratulations to everybody who had him. You did not.
8:30
No, I did not. No. Yeah. Uh, I believe Chris Falica did. Um- Chris Falica did. Yeah, he was, uh- Yeah... he was popped in here last week for a little bit, and we were talking, uh, quickly about that.
8:39
So yeah, he, believe he was on. I was not on him. I, Xander's, Xander's form had just been so, had been so great all season long, you almost...
8:47
Yeah, I think X- Xander, Scottie, some of those guys at the top, it's just when it, whenever they have a couple tournaments together where their statistical profile isn't, like, elite-elite, it's easy to kind of write them off or look another way with that, on that next tournament, and that's kind of where Xander was for me.
9:01
He was kind of in that, you know, 10 to 15-ish range, kind of where, where I kind of had guys rated this week. So, um, I had stayed away from him, but you know, I mean, hey, this is a guy I've bet a lot in the past.
9:11
Uh, and top 10s on Xander this year have been by far my most profit- profitable golf bet. So, uh, great to see Xander get the, get the W. Um, a wild tournament overall.
9:22
I mean, I think it, I think it does b- I, you know, as a golf bettor, I think you have, you have these open championships that come around every once in a while, um, or almost every year, and you're like, "Should I be betting this this much?"
9:32
You know, with how much the weather affects things. Does that happen to your voice sometimes? Yeah, [laughs] it does. Oh. "Should I be betting this this much?"
9:38
Um, you know, like there's, there's so many examples we could go through, but like, Sungjae, right? I had a top 20. That cashed on him. Like, that was a great cash.
9:45
Like, he, he needed horrible weather on Friday to even, uh, to, to avoid missing the cut to even be around for the weekend, and then puts himself into a top 10 position.
9:55
You got guys like Tony Finau, who was what, like, T-10 after round one, sitting at even par, shoots 10 over on Friday. See ya, your major's over.
10:06
Um, so I think there's some betting lessons to take away from, and I had talked about it a little bit last week that I usually go less on the open because of stuff like that, but I've been on a little bit of a golf eater recently, so I kind of went heavy, and, uh, it got bloody.
10:19
It got bloody. Give me, give me your worldwide golf rankings now at the top. Give me your top four golfers. It's still Scheffler. I know, I, like, like, you know I'm a big Schauffele guy.
10:29
Still can't have the Scheffler versus Schauffele conversation yet, okay? Like, Scheffler's, Scheffler tee to green has been so historically good this whole season. I know a lot of people want to get, go there.
10:39
It's still Scheffler and then Schauffele, but it is, it is, it is Schauffele, and I think I've been saying this pretty consistently for the past few months.
10:46
It is Schauffele number two without a doubt to me, uh, before we get to whoever else you want to bring up third. Um, I, I think I would- Who's, who is your three? I would go Rory three. I would still go Rory three.
10:57
Um, I think some people might want to say Bryson DeChambeau. That's fine. I, I don't think that's a bad answer. Uh, I think with almost all the LIV guys, though, I can say, you know what?
11:04
I don't see him play enough competitive golf to really have a true answer to that question. No. Uh, starting to feel a little Tennessee at the top in golf.
11:12
Uh, I was looking at the purses, by the way, you know, since, first time since the, since the Americans swept in 1982. So again, f- what is that? Uh, 42 years since we've had a sweep, American sweep of all the majors.
11:22
Tom Watson, I looked up the purses for the US Open and the British that year. Mm-hmm. $60,000 for winning the US Open. 32,000 pounds for winning the British that year. Xander, a cool 3.1 million- Whoo... here in 2024.
11:40
We'll come back, John Legasa on baseball, and a little, uh, brief Olympics tennis preview next.
11:46
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:00
Hey, uh, Kelly, I don't know if you know this, but our VSiN NFL betting guide is out now, and our all-new college football guide dropping August 1st. How about that? It's not rhetorical. How about that?
12:11
[laughs] I can't wait. Only, only VSiN... No, but how about that? [laughs] Only VSiN Pro subscribers get all the tools to prep for the college and NFL seasons.
12:19
Our experts provide profiles of every team with advanced stats, trends, and power ratings, plus the best bets on futures and season win totals.
12:25
Sign up before the end of July and receive both guides and full VSiN Pro access to our daily pro picks, 24/7 video, and exclusive data like our betting splits all the way through the Super Bowl for an early bird discount price of just $175.
12:36
The football special discount price expires on July 31st, so do not wait. Visit vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. Gil Alexander, Kelly Billdt, real quick, uh, Olympics coming.
12:49
Drew hopefully tomorrow, a full Olympics breadth of picks throughout the sports. I'll just give my tennis chime in, which is real simple. Uh, on the women's side, Iga's right around two to one.
13:01
Uh, she was about minus 170 when I got her. Um, it's clay, it's Philippe Chatrier. We're back at the French Open court, where she is the Rafael Nadal of the, uh, of the women's tour.
13:14
Sh- there's no way you can really recommend anybody else, quite frankly, on this surface. Uh, if you said, "You must give me a long shot play, Gil, you must, I cannot bet Iga at minus 200," uh, I would say
13:31
that you should either bet Ast- well, I mean, Ostapenko's 27 to 1, Paolini's 48 to 1, and Rybakina was 35 to 1. Pick one of those. But you really should just be betting Iga.
13:48
Uh, on the men's side, it is the usual suspects as well. It is Carlos Alcaraz, it is Novak Djokovic, it is Jannik Sinner, um, and it is Rafael Nadal.
13:57
And Nadal is the fly in the ointment here because I just mentioned that Iga was the Rafael Nadal of the, uh, women's tour when it comes to clay.
14:04
Rafael Nadal is the Rafael Nadal of the men's c- of the men's side when it comes to clay, obviously. Uh, the winner of 14 French Opens. So this is his final hurrah. This is what he was waiting for, one more Olympics.
14:15
He won it in 2008. He's 10 to 1. Is he the guy that could overcome the big three, the new big three of Alcaraz, Djokovic, and Sinner? Um, pretty creative.
14:25
It would be a heck of a bet to root for, let's put it that way, on Nadal at 10 to 1, and it does have a puncher's chance, for sure, even though he just got blasted on clay by Nuno Borges.
14:34
But we've seen him lose clay tournaments before he got to, uh, the French Open. So, um, listen, Alcaraz and Swiatek are the short shots for a reason. Uh, Swiatek is the favorite for a reason.
14:45
Alcaraz, the short shot on the men's side because they are super-duper fast. They get to everything on clay, and they turn defense into offense, and so that's why their price does this.
14:55
But I think Nadal would be a, an interesting play on the men's side. I bet Alcaraz. All right. Did you really? Yeah. Plus 150? Drew Dins came out here last week. He said, "This price is ridiculous."
15:03
It, it, I mean, it's plus money. Yeah. I- At plus 170, 165 is what I got. Oh, are you serious? Yeah. That's a great price. So yeah, he, when he came on- Yeah... DraftKings had pl- just posted, I think- Yeah...
15:14
plus 170, and Drew, and Drew was just going nuts comparing it to what the price was at the French, uh, for Alcaraz. He's like- And was like, "This makes too much sense."
15:21
He's not even having his best year, like on the court, and he's still... It's ridiculous. Yeah. Yeah. I think I got 165, but I saw 160s out there still yesterday. I didn't get it quite that price.
15:31
I bet Iga a couple times. I bet Carlos. I did not take a bet on Nadal yet, but just for a little giggle, I might take a little sa- sampling of that. Let's talk some baseball.
15:40
John Lagasse is here, everybody, um, courtesy of the Progressive guest line. We always love having John in here for some instant offense.
15:47
MLB and NFL writer for The Athletic, hosts the Corked Stats podcast, comes to us @johnlaghezza on Twitter. [laughs] Spelling it phonetically. How you doing, Johnny? Gil, I'm loving that lead in.
16:00
Kelly, come on, he served you up with the, "How about that?" [laughs] I thought we were gonna get Coast. I thought we were getting... I'm, I got the Cheshire Cat smile. I was waiting for, "How about that?"
16:09
You had to tell him it wasn't rhetorical, man. Yeah, how we doing? How we doing? Johnny, I, I usually don't get caught, okay? [laughs] But sometimes I got other people talking in my ears too, okay?
16:17
And I don't fully hear, Gil. That, that, that's what happened. How about that? Now I, now I'm just dying. The 50, the 40, the 30. Look at him go. How about that was- Oh. Was more- Oh, oh...
16:28
was more Mel Allen on This Week in Baseball. "How about that?" That was more him. Oh, that was another good one. Yeah. Oh, man. Come on, John. Oh, I miss those shows, man. John. I miss TWIB maybe more than anything.
16:38
All right, let's go. Oh, now it's time for this week's TWIB notes. John, if you're gonna go- Oh... if you're gonna go down how about that history, let's get our, uh, let's get our announcers correct, for God's sake.
16:46
[laughs] Um, all right, Johnny. You, you describe yourself as white hot off air. White hot. Yes, we are white hot. What's happening? You doing well in baseball?
16:55
Well, listen, it's all about transparency, and when you asked me last time how I was doing, I told you it was a little bit of struggle. We were on the, you know, business side of some variance and playing around even.
17:05
But you gotta stick with the things you can control, right? I don't throw the ball. I don't swing the bat. We do control our work ethic. We do control our attitude.
17:13
And we do control the risk management, all the things that I take a lot of pride in. And now, boom, we are hit the ground running after the All-Star break. You know, again, relying on the model.
17:22
We l- do the show every day, adding the analysis, and, you know, play responsibly, and it's kept me in the arena for years, handicapping and, you know, for the public. Betting baseball every day, it's difficult.
17:33
Let's get into the games. First one, I had a misprice. I don't just like to rely on my model. I hate when people just quote their own proprietary work, but it is all data backed.
17:42
Detroit Rock City, the Tigrays leaving eight mile, going to Cle Town. [laughs] Cle Town, baby, to face the Cookie Monster. It's Scoobledoo-bledoo. Scoobledoo-bledoo.
17:51
Come on, Tarik Skubal is legit on the shortest list of best pitchers this year. Most e- effective pitchers on a per inning basis. He is literally doing it all.
18:01
Minus 125 against his Guardian team, and Carrasco feels like a total misprice. I mean, Skubal's all the good things. I mean, it's up 2.4 ERA, 0.88 whip, and all the indicators agree.
18:12
31K to four and a half walks, so the control is there. Elevated ground ball, suppressing hard contact, keeping the ball in the yard.
18:19
And you know, he can get in the shoulder pads with the spikes on it 'cause w- you know, what a rush. He's a, he's a road warrior. He's killing it on the road.
18:25
This guy's just doing absolutely everything, and Carrasco's really struggled. I mean, long in the tooth, it's passed him by. The VLO is down, the contact is up.
18:34
It's, it's not been great, and he's really been very bad in his own building, which is kind of plead up as far as offense goes. He's allowed a 295 batting average, nearly five ERA, almost two home runs per nine.
18:47
That's Carrasco. The offense is probably split. Now, I, I don't wanna put a gold star on my big nose, but I am going to briefly, 'cause baseball teams and players, it's all about waves, everybody. Sine waves.
18:59
You wanna catch the crest up, you wanna catch the crest down. They work in rectangular action, not, you know, perpetuity in a certain direction. CleTown, the Guardians were really over-performing.
19:10
The discipline is good, but without the contact quality and the home runs, you're gonna struggle. They've also pulled back on the stolen bases. The bullpen for Cleveland's been good, so has Detroit.
19:20
I don't think it's gonna matter. I mean, the model just has this one screaming. It's listed minus 125. That's 55% implied probability for you math nerds out there. I've got it at minus 217 fair line. That's 68%.
19:32
Give me all the edge and the Tigers at minus 125. Uh, trade deadline is in eight days, John, on July 30th. Tigers rumored- Eight days... to be in talks with both the Dodgers and the Orioles about Skubal.
19:44
You think Skubal gets, uh, gets traded? Yeah, I mean, I was kind of hoping it would be my Yankees. There's a couple of youngsters, you know, I think it's Spencer Jones, right? I hope I didn't misquote.
19:56
But there's a couple of nice prospects the Yankees have that maybe can get that done. I know they were looking for Crochet. Point is- Crochet's out there... yeah, it's, uh- Yep Yeah, yeah, yeah. The, along with
20:08
Louis Robe- uh, it's actually Louis Robert. Sorry, I confused it. But those two pieces could move the needle for any team, whoever is on the right end of that. You know what?
20:17
For me, especially when it comes to youngsters, pay up. We don't even know if these guys are gonna pan out. Look at Joe Adell, and not to knock him. He's been around.
20:25
We've been doing this thing up and down for years and years. Number one pick, this and that, uber prospect. Mike Trout, Mickey Mantle. It hasn't happened, you know?
20:32
Meanwhile, if you traded him for a win now situation, I, I would do it for the big lefty. I don't know where he's gonna go, but I think, I think the Dodgers will be looking more for a bullpen move.
20:41
We've seen a lot of shakeup there at the end of the game. All right, so you, uh, you are on the Tigers then against the Guardians, full game money line. Yeah.
20:49
You are, you are tempting fate against that Guardians bullpen, and you have one more. Yeah. Full game. What do you got today? All right, come on, I couldn't leave you with one. A favorite? Ugh. You know we can't do that.
21:00
I'm allergic to juice. So let's get on the plus side of things. Again, this one feels like a narrative play. I was talking to you about the Oakland A's off air.
21:09
This does not involve the A's, but to the greater point, there is a narrative base to public betting, and I think the public sinks into jerseys, and they don't wanna let go. So we're gonna go with the Reds.
21:20
Hunter Greene is on the bump for the Red Legs against the Bravos and Ronaldo Lopez. I mean, the Braves are just not what they were last year. It's multiple missing pieces. Now Albies is also gone.
21:33
They've turned into a real sellout team. Not to do all the granular stuff, but if you're following the Braves, they're striking out like crazy. That's gonna work to Greene's advantage.
21:40
All they try and do is hit home runs, but he does not allow them on the road, and in fact, if Hunter Greene was not pitching for Cincinnati, we might be talking, uh, about him as a Cy Young candidate.
21:50
He's a 160 BA allowed on the road, 550 OPS, 250 ERA, half a homer nine. Rayo's been okay, but I just don't think it happens. Braves offense not as good. Cincinnati's been really good at the back end.
22:01
Give me the plus 130 and the money with Hunter Greene. Clear edge on the bump today. All right. One favorite, one dog. Tigers are the, uh, favorite, Reds are the dog against the Braves.
22:10
Boy, this might not be the year for the Atlanta Braves with all the injuries. No, it's over. Uh- It's over... Acuna and Albies and Freed now. And now Freed. Yeah. And Freed.
22:18
Yeah, it's just, it's- He's, they're, they're done. It's over. It happens. Injuries happen... it, it happens. It absolutely happens.
22:23
They are, they are four and a half games clear of being on the outside looking in, in the- Yeah, so... National League, uh, playoff picture. By the way, just one clarification on the, uh, on the segment.
22:32
Uh, John said he was allergic to juice, as in vigorish. Yep. Just wanted to clear that up for everybody who might have been on the fence about that. Thank you, John. Appreciate it.
22:42
[laughs] Um, July Major League Baseball wins update next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Drama at the Sigma Derby table. Don't forget to check out our website, vsin.com.
22:59
Best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles, odds by state, betting tools, betting guides. Uh, front page of vsin.com, Josh Applebaum, top picks from the NFL win totals betting splits. He's got that going on.
23:10
Zach Cohen's got his Paris Olympics tennis preview as well. JBT on men's basketball odds and previews for the Olympics 2024. By the way, he's, he's, uh, Grizzlies summer league pick is still alive, right? Looking good.
23:22
Heading into the championship. Um- Yeah. We sort of tailed about that. All of that's at vsin.com. Nigel on Olympic soccer. It's all there. Wes on Olympics golf. A lot of Olympics at vsin.com. Check it out.
23:32
By the way, Sigma Derby table, uh, which is, I don't know, what would you say, a, a 25-foot putt away from us? Um- Yeah... you know, you know, a little break to the right for me. Yeah, yeah.
23:42
Nice, nice little like, uh- Break to the left for you... 12 yard, uh, out, yeah. They're a, uh, they're feverishly cleaning, and you were saying there was an incident there r- recently?
23:50
There was a, there was, there was a kerfuffle yesterday. [laughs] Oh, a kerfuffle. I, I don't really know what happened, so I, I don't really know what happened.
23:56
I believe someone did get, uh, led away in handcuffs yesterday, so it was, uh- It was a, it was a- It was so- Oh, in handcuffs? Yeah, there, there was something going on. Oh, wow. Yeah. Was it a kerfuffle?
24:05
It did not, uh, rise to the level of an old-fashioned Donnybrook? No, no, no. No, no, yeah. N- no violence of any kind. Oh, okay. All right. Yes. N- no, yeah.
24:13
That, that was a little bit more why I was, uh, we were like, "What's going on over there?" Are any Donnybrooks modern, or are they all old-fashioned? They're all old-fashioned.
24:22
Um, did you hear about actress Aubrey Plaza? I'm aware of Aubrey Plaza- I did... 'cause she was on White Lotus, one of the s- one of the seasons of White Lotus, and she's on... What sitcom was she on?
24:31
She's big on, uh- Uh- Was it Parks and Rec? Parks and Rec. Parks and Rec, yeah. She tore her ACL at, uh, WNBA All-Star Weekend. Really? And this is the second time she has torn an ACL playing basketball. Are you serious?
24:43
Are you pulling up the story too? [laughs] Ironically, she talked about the first incident in a live taping of a podcast this past Friday with, uh, Megan Rapinoe and Sue Bird, just hours before the second tear.
24:53
Oh, that's awful. She pl- she was- she tore it playing a game of Knockout. What is Knockout? Knockout's the, the game where, like, you'll, you, you sh- you shoot. Man, I would have to look up the exact rules again.
25:03
You've got two balls right there. You could have as many as, I don't know how many people. Yeah. And you shoot from, like, the free throw line, and you gotta make it. And if you don't- Oh...
25:11
like, you can knock the person's ball away, hence knockout. And then, like, if you score before them, then the, you knock them out, they're out. She tore her ACL doing that? Yeah. Wow.
25:21
But I don't, I've, I've had some pretty violent games of Knockout before. That's a great game.
25:24
[laughs] I remember, free throw line, yeah, f- I think it's free throw line, maybe three point line, maybe you can back it up, and it's just, like, if you shoot first, Gil, then I'm trying, I shoot after you, and I'm trying to make the ball before you can make it.
25:35
I see. So live rebound, then you can just go lay up or whatever. Usually, usually the fun way though is you can take the ball and knock your ball away. So there's a lot of twisting and s- Yeah. Yeah, yeah...
25:44
stick and jab kind of thing. Yeah, yeah. Um, by the way, I'd like to dispel the, uh... Did you see this Nick, Nick Castellanos thing that came out yesterday? Somebody tweeted this out.
25:52
So, uh, Joe Biden, we'll talk election here momentarily with Jason, um, but Joe Biden, the, uh, US president, uh, announcing that he will not be running for re-election obviously was the big news of the day, uh, globally yesterday, let alone, uh, n- nationally, and then Nick Castellanos hit a home run.
26:09
And of course, this, you know, this sparked the old, uh, the memory of, of course, the old Tom Brennaman thing, Tom Brennaman saying, how could I put this delicately, "unfortunate things" caught by a hot mic.
26:21
Ended his career, by the way, Tom Brennaman, the long play-by-play guy of the, uh, Cincinnati Reds. He's coming back, by the way. Is he coming back? Yeah, I just saw the story, like, last night, I believe. Okay.
26:30
Um, yeah, returning to broadcasting with The CW after four years. At The CW? Yeah, that, that's, that's what this says, yeah. [laughs] You sure it's not The WB? [laughs] It's The CW. Okay. Yeah.
26:42
[laughs] Well, then, and, and so C- when Castellanos hit the home run after the Biden news, uh, everybody remembered, you know, the, the Brennaman, "I pride myself and think of myself as a man of faith.
26:52
As there's a drive into deep left field by Castellanos, [laughs] and that'll be a home run. And so that'll make it a four to nothing ballgame."
26:59
Anyway, so people, so someone tweeted out this long list of other huge events that Castellanos allegedly had hit a home run either during or after an announcement.
27:09
And the whole list is, not the whole list, but, like, he's only done it three times. The, the rest of it was all made up. Yeah.
27:15
Like, he didn't hit a home run when Will Smith slapped Chris Rock, nor did he when Queen Elizabeth died or Vin Scully died. Like, all of that's just- T- Ben and I were on the air yesterday- Yeah... during a break.
27:24
He was trying to explain this to me. Like, I remember what, what, you know, the Brennaman thing, I remember that. I, I didn't know that this was a, a larger conversation- Yeah...
27:33
uh, around Castellanos and- Bren- Brennaman had made a homofer- Yeah, right... homophobic slur that was caught on the mic. He then had to apologize.
27:42
He did so in the most, I mean, you could feel that moment in this man's- Oh, yeah. Yeah... life, and Castellanos has the nerve to hit a home run- Right in the middle... in the middle of it. Yeah, yeah.
27:51
And he immedi- instinctively went into broadcast mode. "And there's a shot to left field." [laughs] "It's four to nothing Reds." Like, like, I knew it. [laughs] I remember that. I knew about that. Yeah.
28:00
I didn't know that this was, there was a, like, a list growing. Well, it's three. And Ben was describing this to me- All it is is three... and I was like, "This seems silly." It's only three. Yeah.
28:07
There was another one where there w- there was a Phillies-Giants game, and there was, it w- I think it was on Memorial Day. And so I t- uh, I can't remember, Tom is also the name of the, uh, the Phillies announcer.
28:17
He was going through a tribute on Memorial Day, and as he's giving the tribute, Castellanos has the nerve to hit it out in left field. [laughs] Out into the left field bleachers again.
28:25
So yesterday was the third one, and so that's what sparked this. Anyway. Brennaman, Brennaman do col- uh, college football, uh, games on The CW. There you go. Okay. All right. Getting another shot.
28:34
Um, July, Major League Baseball win total update.
28:37
Again, I said this earlier, um, this feels like we made this bet, because of the All-Star break and because July just is 115 degrees, or at least if you live out here it is, um, it just feels like we made this bet a year ago.
28:51
But again, the history of this, if you're just landing on this show, March, April, we famously did this with the Guardians at 65 to one. We came one out away from hitting it. Just soul-crushing.
29:01
Uh, 16 to one on the Guardians in May was my play. That finished at two games out. They went two and five against the Rockies and the White Sox. If they just go five and two, let's say, they win that.
29:11
Uh, and then we, we did cash it in June with the Astros at 25 to one and 17 to one for most wins in the month of June. So this has been a unbelievable, uh, unbelievably profitable and unbelievably enjoyable.
29:25
Like, as profitable as it has been, we probably should have had it much more profitable. So this month, July, the play was the Royals, the Kansas City Royals at 17 to one, and I stated all the reasons.
29:35
Much of them are the same. A lot of it has to do with schedule, [clears throat] but a lot has to do with the strategy of the bet, which is I bet it at Circa where the tiebreaker rules are in effect.
29:47
Remember, William Hill Caesars is the only other shop that offers this. It is a dead heat shop. But at Circa, there's a tiebreaker.
29:53
If you end up with the same amount of wins, it goes to fewest losses followed by, um, best run differential.
30:00
And so the instinct, as I mentioned at the beginning of this month, is, oh, well, the more games you play, the more opportunity there is to win games, and so that's who you should sort of gravitate towards.
30:09
But I argued in the same way that I bet the Astros who had the second fewest games in the month of June scheduled, and the Royals who had the second fewest amount of games scheduled in the month of July, actually the way to play it is counterintuitively.
30:22
Because if we can just get the wins- We will win the tiebreaker. It's a very strange little quirky thing, uh, that sort of, again, goes against what your initial instincts ought to be if you're betting it at Circa.
30:34
So update, 10 days left. Every team has either nine or 10 games left to play. The Detroit Tigers, the aforementioned Detroit Tigers, Kelly, 11 and five, they are currently the leader. Again,
30:48
this doesn't end on July 21st. It ends after July 31st, so that's the problem with that. But the Tigers at 11 wins, 11 and five, they are in first place. The Diamondbacks, Pirates, Astros, and Mets each have 10.
30:59
Diamondbacks, Pirates, and Astros are all 10 and six. The Mets are 10 and seven. The Mets actually have a extra game. They have a 10th game. They had a...
31:08
Besides the All-Star break, the Mets had a game scheduled every single day this month. The Athletics, the Rangers, and the Red Sox are all nine and six. The Cubs, Cardinals are nine and seven.
31:18
And then it is the Royals who lead the eight-win brigade at eight and six. So the Royals are in 11th place overall out of the 30 teams in Major League Baseball. The Royals are in 11th place. Um, here's the good news.
31:33
The good news is, the bad news of course they're three wins behind the Tigers. The good news is only the Tigers have one fewer losses, right?
31:41
So the, the, the Royals, that whole tiebreaker strategy is definitely in full effect. And by the way, there was my project- there was my prediction as to what they would have to do per series.
31:52
Here's the actual, uh, result of what they've done in the series. So they're actually two games behind where I thought they'd be, but remember where those two games really were, Kelly.
32:01
They went one and four out of the gate because they were five of 34 with runners in scoring position those first five games. Mm.
32:09
So we really g- got behind the eight ball those first five games, but they're seven and two since then,
32:14
and their remaining nine games, six of them are at home, three against the Diamondbacks, three against the Cubs, two of the teams that are in front of them, and then it's three at the White Sox.
32:24
The Royals happen to have the third best record in all of Major League Baseball at home. They are a juggernaut in Kansas City. So that begins tonight with a game against Arizona. Kansas City's a minus 160 favorite.
32:37
Um, Reagan's is on the mound. So by the way, Seth Lugo, g- a guy who I, uh, made a whole speech about why I bet him for Cy Young before I went on vacation, Seth Lugo with a complete game. Great work yesterday.
32:49
Three hitter yesterday. Great work. Great work. I di- I, I did the whole brain dead, uh, uh, jump in line against the White Sox. [laughs] There you go. Uh, complete game three hitter for Seth Lugo.
32:59
He jumps way ahead once again in the Tom Tango Cy Young tracker here with obviously more than two months left in the season. But, uh, they're the Royals minus 155 tonight against Diamondbacks.
33:09
So all you gotta do is keep winning and the field will come back to you. And so Royals, uh, last flourish here with nine games. We are in it once again, at least at this point we are alive. How, how is it ending?
33:22
It's just such a fun bet, man. How is it end of July and this White Sox thing is still a thing? Like, uh, this, uh, uh, it's my favorite thing of the baseball season so far.
33:30
You mean the win, the winning after five and then losing full game? Yeah, yeah, yeah. This is just great. It's an incredible bet. It's been unbelievable. We'll come back. Election talk apolitically.
33:39
Betting with Jason Weingarten next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. July's ending with a bang.
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34:14
Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin live from Bar Canada at the D, joined now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line by Jason Weingarten.
34:22
@spreadapedia is where you can find him on Twitter, where you can really find him in real life right now. Still at the Ha- still in the Hamptons. How you doing, Jason? Pretty good.
34:30
Looks like I, uh, I picked an eventful week to go on vacation. You, you sure did. By the way, before we get into that, what, what does... Describe a day in the life at the Hamptons. What do you do?
34:42
I wake up, I get coffee, usually check my bets, see if there's anything to, uh, bet on or if anything I wanna work on.
34:51
This week or last week was a little different 'cause we had the All-Star break, so kind of cut down on the, the having to, to do stuff day to day, at least with baseball.
35:02
Um, but yeah, get coffee, get a bagel or whatever, go and hang out in the backyard, read my books, decide where I wanna eat lunch, go get a sandwich. They got really good sandwiches out here.
35:13
Most of the delis are pretty great. Um, yeah, nev- never have to worry about getting a good sandwich at a deli out here. Um- Kelly, Kelly, what was your, what was your imagination of it? That it was what?
35:24
I, I j- I just picture, uh, Jason, Preston, and Rufus sitting on a porch somewhere by the beach with cigars going [laughs]. [laughs] We thought that's what it was like.
35:34
Listen, Jason, I w- obviously yesterday's events I was like, "All right, we've gotta do a s- a segment with Jason."
35:39
Uh, for those who are unfamiliar with this, yes, this is sports betting, but we have bet on this show for many, many years now on elections and to great success.
35:48
Uh, 2020, uh, presidential election being the greatest example of that, but we discuss it apolitically. We are only here to make money.
35:55
We are, we are less interested in the politics, or at least I am less interested in the politics. I just wanna s- see how we can make money. And so yesterday, uh, Joe Biden announces that he will not run for re-election.
36:05
This is a big moment in American history, obviously. The first time since 1968 when Lyndon Johnson decided not to run for re-election, that a sitting United States president made that decision.
36:17
Johnson made that in the wake of the Tet Offensive, uh, uh, during the Vietnam War.
36:22
Uh, Biden, obviously after a, how can I put this kindly, diminished performance at the debate with Donald Trump a few weeks back, uh, the writing was on the wall, and so Biden does in fact Say that he's not gonna run for re-election.
36:36
And so Jason, I guess my first question to you, and by the way, here are the odds right now. Uh, the final odds before Biden's announcement, Trump was minus 225, Donald Trump minus 225.
36:48
Kamala Harris was plus 625, Joe Biden seven to one, because obviously the rumblings, would Biden, uh, succumb to the pressure of pulling out or not, that was still there.
36:58
Um, now that it is, that the announcement has been made, Harris cut in half or even more than half. Trump's still the favorite, but Harris about plus 270.
37:08
Well, we're seeing, let's see, Trump minus 200, uh, Kamala plus 350 over at Ladbrokes, and then at Paddy Power, Trump minus 187, Harris plus 275.
37:18
So my question to you, uh, Jason, off the top is, if Biden, if you're giving truth serum to Republican strategists, if Biden was the one that they absolutely wanted to run against, where does Kamala rank now, obviously still with Newsom and Whitmer and everybody else already endorsing Kamala.
37:38
But in their truth serum, is this who they'd want to face? Uh, man, that's a tough question, 'cause I mean, I, I, I don't think particularly highly of Kamala Harris, and
37:50
I don't know, I don't understand what anybody's doing here, um, the Republicans or, or the Democrats. It's, it's very confusing. You know, uh, just to, to go back for a second, I mean, we haven't seen Biden since Friday.
38:04
He announced he's l- leaving the race with, with a tweet, you know, with, with a letter that it very likely wasn't written by him and, and a tweet, and that's it. We still haven't seen him.
38:15
Um, it's very confusing what the, what the strategy is, but it's obvious that the Democrats have decided to circle the wa- the wagons around Kamala, and that she's, she's likely gonna be the nominee, whether, you know, it's voted on or not.
38:28
It, it, it sounds like, you know, everyone's falling into line.
38:33
Um, what I've said on the last couple pods I've done, and people have asked me what I think about the elections is, you know, three and a half months is, is a very long time.
38:42
Uh, we've just seen in the last week, all the events of the last week or the last 10 days, uh, things keep moving so quickly, it's hard to be particularly confident about anything that's gonna happen two months or three months from now.
38:55
Um, I do think it's reasonable to say that Kamala is gonna be the nominee, and they're gonna circle around her.
39:02
Um, how they sort of get the message out that this is a legitimate, you know, this is a legitimate candidate that, that's never won a single primary vote, um, you know, it's beyond me. It's, that's beyond my pay grade.
39:15
But, uh, the Democrats say they're going with Kamala. Uh, you know, who am I to, to argue with them? But this is gonna be an incredibly contested election.
39:25
It's gonna be full of rhetoric that is probably, you know, inappropriate and rude and foul, and people are gonna say all sorts of things about each other and the other parties.
39:37
It's, it's gonna be a pretty ugly next couple months. Uh- Yeah, it's, it- I don't think- I, I think it- Go on. No, no, I think it becomes super fascinating because we're -- and I go back to the 2020 election.
39:47
We have a lot of sports bettors, right? Who leaned right, and they, their, their muscle memory on what happened election night with the live betting.
39:55
They went back to 2016, and then when-- Remember in 2016, when Trump won Florida, it all sort of switched that night. Trump, the, the onslaught against Hillary began.
40:04
And when Trump won Florida in 2020, you know, good sports bettors don't necessarily make good election bettors, and they seemingly didn't really know how the Electoral College worked, and so they immediately started throwing money behind Trump.
40:16
And Trump didn't win, obviously, even having won Florida. So I've just-- This is sort of the cautionary -- The reason why this is so fascinating to me is because, let me liken it like this.
40:26
So you just had the Republican convention bump. Trump survived this, assa- an assassination attempt, right? Um, Biden's debate performance obviously being the biggest thing of all this.
40:38
So you have this, it's sort of like when we do the sports analogy.
40:41
And by the way, and then you look at the polls, Biden was, is beating, you know, Reuters poll, Biden was be-- uh, Trump was beating Biden by about three points.
40:48
Him and Kamala, even before Biden's announcement, were at dead heat.
40:52
It's sort of like the team in a first half of a basketball game that shoots 13 for 13 from behind the arc, talking about survive assassination attempt, debate performance, um, and again, and convention boost.
41:03
A team that shoots 13 for 13 from behind the arc in the first half, and they're only up a bucket at the half. And as sports bettors, we would unload on the team that's down in that situation, right?
41:14
So it just, I, I guess for me it feels like people who think this is going to be a landslide, ooh, they better think again.
41:22
I think it's gonna be very close, but I, I, I-- The one thing that I think of just, uh, from the political standpoint is that if, if you believe that Biden was forced from the race because the polling was showing that he had no path to victory in swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, I'm not sure what you need to do to get Kamala to get a boost in those states.
41:45
I would assume that the polling would be very similar for her. Um, so again, like I said, I, I don't know what the strategy is here by the Democrats. I do notice that Barack Obama has not endorsed anybody yet.
41:58
You know, uh, I, I, I put a lot of credence in what he does and what he says and what, what, what he says publicly. But, uh, yeah, I mean, it's, it's crazy. It's-- I'm looking for information.
42:10
You see a lot of tweets, you see a lot of commentary, but you don't see a lot of, you know, information right now. Especially, like I said, we haven't seen Biden since Friday. This is incredibly unusual.
42:21
At least it should be acknowledged that this is an incredibly unusual situation in, in American politics. I can't think of any sort of, you know, similar situation to this.
42:29
We literally have not seen or heard from the president since Friday, and, and he's announced his resignation only through Twitter. You know, again, it makes Twitter pretty valuable, too, if you think about it.
42:38
Where- Well- Where else are you getting all this breaking news and everything? There's n- there's nothing normal about, uh, this election cycle, period. That's for sure. Um- It's incredibly abnormal. Yeah.
42:47
That's the thing. We're so pa- we're so past what's normal that I think it, it's screwing with our brains a lot. Like, people aren't processing this information the way they should.
42:56
Like I said, we've not seen the president since he announced his resigna- uh, re-his resignation, which has only happened through Twitter. Um- It, it's fascinating also- Quite, quite odd. Yeah.
43:06
It's also, I, I'm with you. I'm, I am definitely surprised by how quickly the other potential Democratic candidates threw their hat in the ring and endorsed Kamala immediately.
43:19
Um, and I don't know if that's Newsom thinking to himself, let's say Gavin Newsom is one of them, or Whitmer, both of them saying, "Hey, um, Trump's probably gonna win."
43:27
Maybe they made the calculation, they think Trump is the favorite, so they're like, "Why don't you take this one, Kamala? We'll come back in four years."
43:33
Or if they genuinely believe, 'cause right, because the Democratic position would be, okay, she's an attorney general. That's a nice crime against a guy who's been convicted of felonies.
43:43
She is, uh, the first African American, the first Asian American woman. That's gonna be tough for Trump to be as nasty against, right? That's gonna be dicey for him.
43:52
Um, she gets to pick a vice presidential candidate from a swing state, like a Pennsylvania. So, so there's a, it, maybe they, they genuinely believe that.
44:01
It's just fascinating all around, and I think it is going to be as close as ever, and I don't think that's the public consensus right now. Would you bet Kamala right now at her price?
44:11
I w- I would bet nothing right now at the price. It's n- it's far from over. It's, it's- Yeah. Don't, don't think it's, it's close to over. I would agree with that. Jason, always a pleasure. Safe trip back, my man.
44:22
Thank you. I'll talk to you guys later this week. Coming back, some college football with Pete Buttigieg next. [upbeat music]
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