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Jul 22, 2026
A Numbers Game | July 22, 2026 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | July 22, 2026 | Hour 1
00:00
46:05
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:11
It is the Numbers Game at VSiN, the e-sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. Gil Alexander from sunny San Francisco.
0:22
I gotta endure this for three seconds- [laughs]... before, before this goes away. Uh, Kelly Binlin back in Vegas- Yeah... at Circa Resort Casino at the VSiN studios, high atop the world's largest sportsbook.
0:32
Good morning to you, sir. Good morning. Yes, you're looking-- You look so much better with a nice shadow right across your face, you know? Hey, thank you. [laughs] That's- The shot was-... what everyone says...
0:41
the shot was so gorgeous yesterday. Of course, of course we couldn't have that every day. This is, uh, this is a throwback to the first couple days I was here- Right... right?
0:49
Where in the first few segments, uh, it's b- by the way, not hot at all in this black shirt. [laughs] Black shirt was not a good choice, I believe- Hey, get-... is what they said in, uh, Anchorman.
0:58
Hey, get a glass of milk- Uh... and turn up the heat. You'll be good. [laughs] Uh, on the show today, we are packed. Will Hill will join us. Feel like I haven't talked to Will on this show in about a month.
1:08
That's what it feels like to me. Uh, I think the last time I was here, he was off. Will Hill will join us, all of his bets. We'll keep him for a couple segments 'cause I miss him so. Mm-hmm.
1:18
Uh, Paul Spohrer on Major League Baseball a little later. Uh, Nick Whalen, uh, will talk National Football League, maybe some NBA thoughts from him as well. Toddy Wishnev, Major League Baseball.
1:28
Who knows, maybe some WNBA. I'm not sure what's on that man's mind. And a little later on, Kelly, and Kelly has, uh, has decided to, uh, you said you're moving out of the studio for this one.
1:38
Uh, James Farah, Steven Chelanski, they are the two creators or the two producers. I think they're both, right? They're creators slash producers. Yeah, creator-producers, yeah.
1:48
Yeah, of the Circus Survivor documentary, uh, The Quest for $18.7 Million. I believe this is year three of the documentary. Do I have that right? Uh, I believe- Year three?... you are correct, and we premiere tonight.
2:00
Premieres tonight, episode one of seven, seven episodes this year chronicling last year's Circus Survivor and Circus Grandissimo contests.
2:08
So they will be in studio, and we'll talk to them, uh, about just how this has evolved. You know, do they still get charged up for this? Has it gotten old for them? You know, I'm curious. Mm-hmm.
2:18
Uh, how many years can you do this before you're like, "Oh, my God, we can't do this again," or is it still as exciting as ever? We'll find out. Kelly doesn't wanna be in the studio for it, so okay, we're fine.
2:26
I, I, I- You don't wanna be- Gotta make room... you don't wanna be M- Monae in the middle- It's tough-... is what you're saying... with you on remote. Yes, yes. Yeah. It's tough with you on remote- Okay...
2:33
and then we gotta talk to people. We got a couple mics. Yeah. Figure it out. Then we gotta talk to people. I- I mean, it might be a disaster. Don't get me wrong.
2:39
If something, if something, uh, tech-wise doesn't work or something, I might have to run out here. We'll see. Oh, that would be awesome. You sm- mid-sprint, you just roll out in the studio.
2:47
[laughs] Uh, tennis today, let's start here. Uh, there were five plays for subscribers, vsin.com/picks. The first one is in the books. It was a loss. Arthur Rinderknech, uh, lost to Sebastian Baez in three sets.
3:00
He was minus 105, so we started with a loss in the overnight. Three are going on right now. Mixed results. Uh, Alina Karayeva is down a set to Sinja Kraus. Alina Karayeva is a plus 1, uh, 47 dog. She is down a set.
3:17
They are on serve in the second. Karayeva up 2-1. We'll see how that goes. The frustrating one, at least till this moment, was the Katarzyna Kawa +168 play versus Paula Badosa.
3:29
Kawa 0 of 9, 0 for 9 on break points in the first set- Ugh...
3:34
and sh- and Badosa steals it from her, and now Kawa has decided to finally get the break here early in the second set, so we'll see if this, we'll see if this turns around.
3:43
Uh, the biggest dog on the board is Romana Andres Buchaga, who is, uh, +210 versus Nuno Borges. He is up a break.
3:52
I mean, he's up a, he's up two breaks, but it might go, come down to one break here in the first set, so we'll see, uh, how that evolves.
3:57
The one that has not started, I don't believe it has started, uh, Alex Molcan, he is a -130 favorite versus Daniel Altmaier.
4:05
That is the only one that has not started yet, so, uh, we'll see how these evolve through the morning, but if you wanna jump on some tennis, that's the one, Molcan -130 versus Altmaier.
4:15
You were saying you were, uh, watching the ones in Austria. You thought it was beautiful over there. Yeah, I think that's where, uh, old, old, uh, Roman's at, and I, I don't know.
4:23
I, I can't remember who said this, like, in the past couple weeks about him, Gil, but I don't, I don't know how you make a bet on this guy or watch this guy and not hear w- uh, what is it? REO Speedwagon, right?
4:34
The Buchaga, Buchaga. I can't fight this feeling. That song, you know? You know what I'm talking about? Wow. You know what I- That was impressive. Was it REO? Do I, do I-- Is it REO Speedwagon? Does that do that?
4:44
Uh, I d- yeah, I think I Can't Fight This Feeling- Okay... was REO Speedwagon, right? I kind of just- I believe so... Googled it, but I don't know why I didn't believe the Google results. Uh, yeah.
4:53
Buchaga, by the way, I'm old enough to remember his, uh, his dad played soccer for Argentina, Jorge Luis Buchaga back in the day. Mm. Mm. This is his son.
5:02
Yeah, he's out there- You're like, "Mm, I'd rather sing REO Speedwagon." Well, w- it w- uh, the Austria, I was telling you about it, man. It looks great.
5:08
I don't know what little town they're in, but clearly it's like a little, like, ski town 'cause it's right on the side of the mountains where they have the arena, and like you- Oh, it's beautiful...
5:16
you can see, like, you can see the ski resort and, and the passes up there and the runs. Um, and there's, like...
5:22
And then there's, like, the golf course on the other side, so it, it looks like a cool town, whatever that is. We'll take- Yeah... the show on remote next year for it. There we go. Tennis, Austria, we're there.
5:31
Um, okay, I hate-- I, I apologize to one segment of the audience for this, but I think we have to say this at the top also. There was this funny little, uh, LeBron James thing that happened last night.
5:42
For those who missed it, uh, there was a, there was a, a link to a l- a scheduled live stream posted from the Miami Heat, uh, YouTube channel to, uh, for the date July 27th, right, which is five days from now.
5:59
This was last night, so it would actually be six days forward.
6:02
A, um, the Heat posted a link to a scheduled live stream titled, quote, "LeBron James Introductory Press Conference," [laughs] uh, with that date, and then the team spokesperson said, "Yeah, it was a mistake.
6:14
We, we messed that up." So, i- what was interesting, I guess, Kelly, the only thing I really wanna say about this, um, is in the age of prediction markets, which makes this even more sensitive, right? Mm-hmm.
6:25
It didn't r- like, that market really didn't move that much based on this. Were you surprised by that? Yeah, I was. Minus 164. Oh, boy. Apologies, 104. Minus 104 on Miami Heat, uh, right now.
6:38
It's really s- small, fine print. Cleveland plus 230, Golden State plus 573, and Philadelphia plus 848.
6:47
Yeah, I, you know, I was, Gil, just because, man, this has been moving every single day based on the smallest pieces of information.
6:57
And, a- I mean, at first, I was just kinda surprised by that, but, like, over the weekend, I was like, "Man, I really wish I had Kalasi," and I was just kinda scooping up some plus prices 'cause who knows how long LeBron's gonna drag this out.
7:09
Um, and I, yeah, I, I mean, this is, this is, like, an interesting piece of evidence at least that I'm surprised didn't swing this market more. Um, but yeah, I, I mean, it, look, it doesn't mean anything.
7:22
I- you don't know. I mean, this is, this could easily be just social media teams trying to get ahead of any potential work, right? This could absolutely be meaningless.
7:32
It's, it's, it's, "Well, this could happen, and let's be prepared if it does, so let's get this stuff scheduled, uh, so we don't have to worry about it when that time comes."
7:39
I mean, it could just be that or, or it could be something more serious. I don't know. Yeah. Who knows? It didn't move much.
7:47
That was just sort of the surprise, uh, there, and, uh, still no official word where LeBron James will play in case you care about such things or want to bet on such things, uh, at a prediction market right now.
7:58
Um, the other thing, of course, the big thing in our, in our world is the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox postponed yesterday because of rain. We knew that about 24 hours ago.
8:09
We talked about it on the show yesterday that the Red Sox second game of a three-game set with the Orioles was bound to be postponed, and it was. But today, we have the old day-night double header.
8:20
Uh, day-night double header. By the way, the Red Sox 14 and one in the month of July on a 14-game winning streak after losing the first game of the month to the Nationals.
8:30
The Brewers, Kelly, lost last night, so even with the Red Sox idle, it was not, uh, empty of good news. The Brewers lost to the Mets. They got blanked four to nothing, so they remain three wins behind- Okay...
8:43
our beloved Red Sox. Uh, and by the way, the Red Sox with two games today, they have 10 games left in the month. The Brewers only have eight games left in the month also, so even that favors our BoSox.
8:54
But, you know, f- from our perspective, again, for the 80 to1 play on, on most wins in July, you get a split today, you're pumped 'cause then you will have won the series against the Orioles.
9:04
That's why that, that first game, that dramatic win in, in game one, the six to five win- Mm-hmm...
9:09
was so big because if you split with the O's, 'cause the O's were only, you know, three wins back starting this series, but if you split today at a minimum, all of a sudden your magic number is already five with just, you know, more than a week le- Mm-hmm...
9:24
more than a week left in the month. So a split is paramount today. Um, but of course, the Red Sox aren't thinking about a split. They're thinking about history today, Kelly.
9:32
If they win today, it will match the longest winning streak in the history of the Boston Red Sox, which is just, you know, it, it's not like matching the longest win streak in the history of, I don't know, the Colorado Rockies.
9:45
[laughs] Yeah. This is a team that has existed for 100-- This is their 126th year, and only in 1946 when Ted Williams came back from World War II did they manage a 15-game winning streak, 1946.
9:59
So this would match that with the, uh, win this morning. By the way, if you're interested in betting on this game this morning, it's Dean Kramer of the Birds, Leaflet, uh, going up against the Red Sox Jake Bennett.
10:11
Jake Bennett, Red Sox, about a minus 149-ish, uh, favorite last I looked. Jake Bennett, five straight. We're showing minus 139.
10:19
Jake Bennett, six foot six inches tall, five straight quality starts, uh, for the Sox, 1.22 ERA over that span, uh, in, uh, for the season, 2.35 ERA.
10:31
He's not quite that good with the advanced stats, but he's really not that bad either. 2.99 expected ERA, 3.03 fielding independent. Those are all good.
10:40
Now, the xFIP is a little higher because his, 3.83, because his home run to fly ball rate's a little ridiculous at 5.7%. But this is what, this is what the Red Sox are thinking.
10:49
They, Kelly, I'm not sure if you're aware of this, probably not aware of our bet on them for most wins in July. Yeah, pro- So they're just thinking about history. Probably not.
10:57
A, you know, you and I have talked about these markets for a long time now.
10:59
Yeah, the one, uh, the one that is kind of funny with this is the how many times have you and I talked off air where it's like, "Man, if, i- if only you could just have the best month run, and it didn't have to start at the first of the month and end at the end of the month," right?
11:15
Wow, did the timing line up perfectly for the Boston Red Sox in the month of July with that. Yeah.
11:21
And again, this is, uh, this is a whole bunch of months' frustration coming out at once, a whole bunch of close calls in the process. Uh, but we haven't hit one of these in a couple years.
11:29
Houston Astros, June of 2024 being the only other time we hit this, but this would be monster at 80 to1. Let's go. So day-night double header.
11:38
Let's get the, let's match the record this morning, and, uh, whatever happens tonight happens tonight. Let's see if they can break their record after that. Uh, coming back, season wins. It's a Wednesday.
11:49
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11:58
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13:11
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14:00
Gil Alexander in San Francisco, Kelly Bidlin in Las Vegas. Kelly, we get tweets and they're, they're all scolding us for- Hey, they're helping me out.
14:08
[laughs] I said it wa- wa- it didn't, I didn't sound like I thought it was REO Speedwagon and, uh, yeah, that part was right. Yeah. Uh, well, Jrod says something else.
14:16
He said, "Main question today is will Todd take another shot at Fez?" I think that's a lock. That's coming up later. Yeah, that's like minus- But, uh-... 320.
14:24
Yeah, John Massey was the first to tell us that the ooga-chaka chant introduction Hooked on a Feeling is actually by Blue Swede, so thank you, John, for being the first.
14:33
Uh, Mike Zills Duke 90 says it was, uh, popular on Ally McBeal, who he named his oldest after. Wow, there's a reference. Yeah, wow. And, uh, [laughs] Jeff, I'll just read a couple of these.
14:44
Jeff Johnson, "I'm getting gambling advice- [laughs]... from two guys that think the great REO Speedwagon sang the awful Hooked on a Feeling song?" He said, "Ha-ha, I kid you two are great." Hey.
14:53
"Love watching and listening every day. Thanks for all you do. It was Blue Swede, by the way." Thank you, Jeff. Gil didn't know I was going there, okay? I'll just leave- No...
15:00
I'll leave the music references for Gil Alexander going forward, okay? That's a line I'm not going- I can't fight this feeling. Yeah. As Jeffrey DeVore tells us, "I can't fight this feeling anymore as REO Speedwagon.
15:11
You were singing, uh, the Blue Swede song," which itself, by the way, he tells us is a cover of a B.J. Thomas hit, so it's not even Blue Swede's original. Oh, o- oh great. There you go. Great. Right.
15:21
Hey, uh, Super Jerk is- Shaboosie all over again. More shaboosies. [laughs] Oh, shaboo- shaboosie is theft, right? It is. Well, not theft. He... Yeah.
15:28
Sh- shaboosie was a conversation before the show, so this, this is, yeah, this has worked, uh, well into the show.
15:33
As I pointed out, there are so many, there's so many artists from this century or late last century that, uh, people refuse to sort of accept got everything from somebody else. The Fugees, right? Mm-hmm.
15:46
Lauryn Hill, uh, and the Fugees. Was it, um, uh, what's my man, uh- Gil... from, uh, Black Eyed Peas?
15:54
Laur- Lauryn Hill, and anyway, everything they did was a sample from somebody else or theft from somebody else, and they get all this credit. It's like, come on. Will.i.am? That guy? [laughs] Will.i.am. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
16:06
Uh, you know what? I, I will tell you, it doesn't, it doesn't mean that some of the remakes aren't better. Sometimes they are, right? Sometimes they're more popular.
16:15
But you know what, Gil, I do kinda wish that, like, uh, you know, uh, I guess I'm not buying a CD anymore, but any time you're like get- getting this music, it should come with that, I don't know, that warning somewhere on it.
16:26
Be like, "By the way- Yeah... this is not the original version of this." Yes. A, well, yeah, there's that, and then there's samples, which is a whole, there's a, that's a whole different category.
16:34
By the way, do you prefer your remakes to be spot on to the original, or that they do something new and different with it? Oh, that's a great question. Um, uh, both. Both. Mm.
16:45
I kinda like the n- a little bit new and different. Greatest, uh, remake of all time, I will not be debated on this subject, uh, Earth, Wind & Fire doing The Beatles' Got to Get You Into My Life. Okay. There you go.
16:56
Uh, Super Jerk, "Hi, guys. Couldn't wait for the show to start. Hope you have a great show. Have a wonderful day. Bye-bye." [laughs] It's from Super Jerk, by the way.
17:04
And then, uh, Larry Fresh, "REO Speedwagon, Kelly Clarkson yesterday. Kelly is showing off the pipes. See him at a cocktail lounge singing during Bet Bash. Who was the guest you guys went to sing, uh, see sing?"
17:14
That was, uh, not only a guest, but that was VSiN original host Al Bernstein, who I went to go see sing at, uh, at his lounge act at The Tuscany. He was quite good, by the way. All right, you ready to do this, Kelly?
17:25
A little Win Total Wednesday? Let's do it. Are the guys leaning over or under? It's another edition of Win Total Wednesday on a Numbers Game. [upbeat rock music] Thank you, Ryan. I stepped on Ryan. My bad. How dare you?
17:40
Sorry about that. So, um, this is, uh, something we do usually during football season, but it's all year long, right? And it's, uh, just thoughts on different win totals. Some we've actually bet, some we have not.
17:52
I have two in baseball that I thought I'd throw out there. One is the LA Dodgers under 102 and a half wins. These are adjusted season win totals.
18:03
Uh, Kelly, like last year, I just simply don't believe the Dodgers are incentivized in any way to try to eclipse this. I think they're going...
18:11
The, the only thing that matters to this franchise, and rightfully so, is the postseason, is winning a World Series.
18:18
All they care about is getting the one or two seed, and right now, the Brewers and the Dodgers are comfortably clear comfortably clear of everybody else in the National League.
18:32
In other words, the, uh, the Dodgers and Brewers. Dodgers are 64 and 38, Brewers are 63 and 38. The next best team is the h- is the Braves at 58 and 42.
18:43
So right now, with still obviously more than a quarter of the season left, talking about, about 60 games left, right now it's comfortable, but I just don't think there's a race.
18:52
And remember, the Dodgers didn't end up with the number one seed last year. They didn't end up with the best record. The Brewers did. So I'm going under 102 and a half just from a baseball management- Yep...
19:02
of games standpoint. Um- I like it, and then w- we, uh, I think we said this off the air the other day or yesterday, but you would still lean, you would lean to that Brewers price for the one seed, right?
19:13
Isn't it, it's like- Yes... four to one still. Yes. Yeah, I- I still would, yeah. Although, of course, the Miz, you gotta monitor that situation. That's big, for sure.
19:21
Um, didn't play in the All-Star Game on a pitch count here in his first start back. The other one's gonna surprise some people, because we have the 80 to 1 on the Red Sox in July.
19:30
I'm not sure if that's ever come up on the show yet. Yeah, yeah. Um, but, and this sort of, you know, I, I brought this up yesterday 'cause someone asked about it. I didn't bring it up.
19:39
They asked about it, so it sort of provoked this conversation, which is, a couple people did, would you bet the Red Sox to win the division?
19:47
And my answer to that is, "No, I wouldn't," because after this month, or more accurately, starting with the last day of this month when the Red Sox play the Dodgers, the schedule becomes one of the hardest the rest of the way in Major League Baseball.
20:01
Not one of the hardest, but you're talking bottom third conservatively, uh, of the hardest. Maybe even bottom five, uh, teams in terms of, or top five in terms of hardest schedules.
20:11
So I think the Red Sox, Kelly, are the quintessential, we banged them when the schedule was perfect for the, for it to go. Yeah. They have been underperforming, right?
20:21
But they have injury problems, big ones, at Garrett Crochet and Roman Anthony, the biggest of all of them. They have more injuries than that.
20:28
They're gonna get some guys back, like Ranger Suàrez, I mentioned Trevor Story here s- uh, sooner than later. But the biggest names, Crochet and Anthony, that's, th- those timetables are still very murky.
20:39
So I would not bet them to win the division.
20:42
However, they are the team that if you could just sneak them into the playoffs, and right now all projections say they will sneak into the playoffs, I believe that they will sneak into the playoffs, they become a monster difficult out in the postseason because, again, of that eight, nine, starting with the Garrett Whitlock, Aroldis Chapman, and they have a rotation that is sneaky good when, when it's at full force.
21:08
Um, I think the offense, yes, the offense does have to still pick it up a bit, but that becomes a profile of a team you do not wanna play in the postseason if they can sneak in.
21:18
But that means that I kind of like the under on their season win total, cutting to the ch- cutting to the chase, because I think 84 and a half, based on the schedule that begins after this month, based on the injury issues, I think it's gonna be tough for them to get to 85.
21:36
I think they probably end up with 82, 83, 84, which in the American League, Kelly- Mm-hmm... is going to be good enough to get them in the postseason, I believe. So it's a threading of the needle with this team.
21:48
Bang them when, when we're supposed to, which is in July. Be very cautious about them in August and September.
21:54
Pray they can just do enough to get in the postseason, and then maybe think about a pennant bet on the Red Sox as well. Right. That's what makes baseball so interesting. I love that. I love that, Gil.
22:04
I mean, from a guy who's holding an 80 to one on most wins in July, I think it's very easy for a, a team to get in your head and, and kind of s- uh, uh, you know, sway you more than they should.
22:13
And, uh, no, I think you're taking a realistic approach to what the l- rest of the regular season looks at, uh, looks like here for them.
22:19
And look, maybe that means, uh, like you just kind of said, it may- maybe it's a bet on to win the AL World Series as we get closer to the playoffs, but especially not right now. Wait for the heater to die down, right?
22:29
[chuckles] They are going to play- Right... some more games at some point. So yeah, I think that's, uh, I think that's a great call. You've got some in basketball. That's right.
22:37
NBA win totals, uh, starting to lock these in. So bet the, starting two days ago, and bet the other two last night. So we talked about the Jazz yesterday on the show. Won't go into ton of details on that.
22:49
I think most people are aware, add Darren Peterson, add Jaren Jackson Jr., complete roster o- uh, overhaul here for this Utah Jazz team that's, uh, been a tanking team for a long time now.
22:59
That should be actually, I think, a, a, a, a threat to a play in in the Western Conference. How about that, Gil? I'll go with that. Um- Okay... this, my second favorite one, and this was, I, you could maybe wait.
23:13
I am shocked this number's come down a little bit. Houston Rockets over 47 and a half, and I know we are all left with lasting memories of how bad the Rockets, uh, looked in the playoffs.
23:24
A- and yeah, it's completely fair.
23:26
This is a team I even g- even as we fast-forward to next year, I don't know if I have a ton of trust in them in the postseason because of some of the lack of shooting, uh, surrounding this team, but this was never the plan last year.
23:36
Fred VanVleet was always supposed to be a part of that team. We never saw him for the entire season. Stephen A- they still played incredibly well with Stephen Adams early in the season before he got hurt.
23:47
Completely different looking team heading into this season. I like the over on the Rockets. I think they're still a very good regular season team. And then some regression in the Eastern Conference.
23:55
Pistons under 50 and a half. They still got Jalen Duren things to figure out, and the rest of the East is just getting better. All right. Little Win Total Wednesdays, July edition.
24:05
Will Hill, all his bets, every sport, every bet next. It's a numbers game right here at VSiN. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
24:22
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24:31
You can scan the QR code on your screen for more sharp plays.com. Gil Alexander in San Francisco, Kelly Bidlin in Las Vegas here on The Numbers Game. Um, we get tweets.
24:42
I don't wanna read them all again, 'cause again, more of them are... We, we really botched the music segment this morning.
24:47
[laughs] Uh, Corbin talking about, uh, he, he immediately busted out with, uh, Uga, Uga Chaga, Uga Chaga about Burr Chaga earlier as well.
24:55
The numbers guys telling us that we, uh, we messed up between Blue Suite and REO Speed Wagon. Um,
25:03
Simple As That says, "Absolutely must do something to a song when covering/remixing it, otherwise it's just professional karaoke." I agree with that.
25:11
Um, and then Tony Tag says, "Damn, boys, the music segment is falling apart. Wyclef Jean was in The Fugees, not Will.i.am." [laughs] Yes, it was Wyclef and Pras and Lauryn Hill.
25:20
Still, they bit everything from, from other people. Uh, and Alan Harris points that out. He said, "The Fugees were Wyclef and Pras." Okay. Geez, we really, we messed that up. Oh, Chris Heath, this is interesting.
25:30
He says, Chris Heath, "I'm not rooting against the Red Sox. On July 1st, Caesars still had 60 to 1, but by the time I got to, uh, Verdi, Nevada, the early game had started.
25:40
Didn't check updated odds next morning as I was meeting my proxy. Major FOMO." Yeah. Yeah. A lot of people are, uh... You get that from people who don't have the bet. They're pretty bummed that they- Yeah...
25:51
they didn't jump on it... completely understandable, right? Like, that's why we, we mentioned it a couple times. That thing, it, where, where you got it at and where you closed at, not the same numbers.
25:59
And there's, and then there's occasional, then there's the occasional person on Twitter who's like, "Oh, it's, that's a g- Darth Throw," uh, 'cause they don't have the bet, right? So they're all upset about it.
26:08
But it's like, I just went through five minutes of why I made the pick. There's no Darth Throw involved in any of it. Um, ladies and gentlemen, I haven't h- been on the show with him, I think in, like, a month.
26:17
Will Hill joins us now, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Uh, you can follow him on Twitter @NotTheWillHill. That's two Es on the the.
26:25
He, of course, is the host of the Shoulda Bet More podcast, and he has 75 kids and 14 dogs. How you doing, Will? Wow. Gilly, what's going on? Good to see you. And, uh, yes, I am one of those people with the FOMO.
26:39
I just wasn't listening at the time. By the time I got to it, the number wasn't anywhere close. And you know how it is, you just, uh- Yeah...
26:46
you consider bets all day, and some, some of them you make, some of them you don't. If I had been listening at the time and, and had that number, I, I certainly would bet it, so. But I'm rooting for you.
26:53
I'm not one of these people, "Oh, I don't have it, I'm not rooting for it." I'm rooting for you to get home. It's looking good. Uh, we don't prematurely call anything here, but you're- No, we don't...
27:00
probably as good as positioned as you can be. And, and, uh, hopefully you, you're able to cash it here. Hopefully so. Uh, Will, well, thank you for that, brother.
27:08
By the way, if, uh, Will's podcast, Shoulda Bet More, if you want to, uh, subscribe, rate, and review, you can scan the QR c- [chuckles] the QR code on the screen.
27:17
Uh, Will gets the very bright Seahawks green for, uh, Shoulda Bet More, three times a week. Who's your latest guest, by the way? Jensen Lewis. Uh- Oh...
27:26
one of my favorite things about Jensen when, when I have him on, just story time about when he was in the league, the trade deadline. Uh, he, he was telling a story about when S- I think it was C.C.
27:35
Sabathia got traded, and all the prospects that come in, and guys going out, and just what it's like from a player's perspective. So it's fun.
27:40
You know how I love the old, you know, the, you know, immaculate grid and hearing these old players and old names you haven't heard in forever.
27:45
And Jensen, uh, Jensen has a bunch of stories which, you know, you get from being in the league and around the game that long, and it's great to, uh, it's great to get those from him.
27:53
Uh, Jensen texted me this morning about the Red Sox play. The, the, uh, by the way, the sort of undercurrent of this show, we have two Hall of Fame immaculate grid players on the show today, Will Hill and Paul Spohn.
28:06
Do not challenge them in immaculate grid. It's just ridiculous. Will, Will, let's start with a, a un- I think Dustin's better than all of us. Dustin does- Come on... go single digits, which- Really?...
28:15
yeah, Dustin's pretty good at. Yeah. Oh, man. Okay, my apologies to the great Dustin Sweetelsen. All right, Danny Hi- I'm not gonna make any cheating allegations. If other people made those allegations- Whoa. [laughs]...
28:24
I, I mean, I can't control what other people do- Never... but I would never make those allegations. Well, we'll, we'll challenge him in a couple weeks on it. Yeah. We'll bring it up in a couple weeks. I like it.
28:32
Some have said, you've heard, you know, that kind of thing. Uh, okay. A lot of people are saying. This is a little, little, some people are saying, that's right.
28:41
This is a little unconventional, but Danny Higgins, our, uh, esteemed producer, he gave Kelly and me a, uh, a trivia question in the overnight. Now, I had actually heard this trivia question some months ago.
28:53
I ended up getting it right, but it took me going through, like, all 32 NFL coaches before I figured it out. Uh, I'm wor- I'm wondering if you have heard this.
29:03
Which current NFL head coach has more regular season rushing yards than Bo Jackson did in his NFL career?
29:13
Bo Jackson ended up with 2,782 career rushing yards, and of course, he had the terrible injury against the Bengals, cut his career short. The current head coach had five more rushing yards, 2,787.
29:28
Can you name that coach, sir? Oh, geez. I don't think I can. I'm gonna have to buy time here and at least think of it. Well, let's buy time.
29:35
It's not gonna be, boy- You could th- you could think about it during the break... w- w- a quarterback. Yeah, yeah, yeah. It wouldn't be, like, a quarterback with Hardball. It's not Andy Reid. It's not McVay.
29:43
Boy, I mean, t- uh, uh, we, we only have five minutes in this segment [chuckles]. I'm not gonna list all 32 coaches. Boy, I, I, I'll... Hmm. Answer next segment, Will. Answer next segment.
29:53
I'll- You got another segment to think about it... yeah, let me think about it. Let me think about it. I won't look it up, I promise. Good idea, Will. We'll let you think about it. Okay.
30:00
Um, this is gonna be funny, by the way, Kelly. You know what I mean? Mm. Did you just hear what happened? Mm-hmm. Okay. Um, let's get to Major League Baseball. You have some plays today.
30:11
I do, but all I can think about is the trivia question- [laughs] I can see it in his eyes... so I don't even know what I, what I'm supposed to say. [laughs] Uh, yeah, I played a few- It's over... I, I got a few today.
30:18
Yankees and Pirates doubleheader. I'm playing the second game. I'm gonna take the run and a half with the Pirates.
30:22
I don't mind, you know, taking the plus price on the first five or taking the, the plus price on the full game.
30:26
But Max Fried, he's coming back for the Yankees, and he was supposed to have another s- uh, rehab scheduled start. I don't like Backing these pitchers off of rehab starts when they miss a lot of time anyway.
30:36
When you're cutting your rehab short, that concerns me. S- it reeks a little bit of desperation here from the Yankees. Uh, Chandler, we know he's got the pedigree, he's got the stuff.
30:43
Yankees aren't swinging the bats well, so, uh, the plus price on Pittsburgh looks good.
30:47
I'll take the run and a half here, where who knows, maybe the Yankees don't get the ninth at bat being the home team, and y- you sometimes get funky lineups and double headers, which I usually don't like back- uh, bet- betting double headers, but give me the Pirates plus the run and a half.
30:58
I also took the Padres here. Uh, against the Braves you can get a little plus money. Martin Perez going for the Braves.
31:05
King's the better pitcher for the, the Padres here, and the Padres have actually swung the bats pretty well here since the All-Star break. I know it's a small sample size, but good recent form.
31:13
Scored eight runs last night. Scored, uh, 19 runs the other day against Kansas City, so maybe the bats starting to pick up for, for San Diego.
31:19
And again, I think they have a big pitching advantage, or a slight pitching advantage, where Martin Perez, uh, the expected ERA a run higher than the actual ERA. He's been due for some regression all year.
31:28
Fastball 89 miles an hour.
31:30
A lot of luck with guys left on base, so I think the Padres are the right side in, um, i- i- in that one there, and I think I've got one more here, but again, I'm just fascinated by this question.
31:41
All I could think about is this question, and while I think of my third play here, I will say I, oh, I played the over Phillies-Dodgers here, over nine and a half.
31:47
Both pitchers, Lauer going for the Dodgers, Nola going for the Phillies. Both very home run prone. Uh, Nola's given up 23 in, like, 114 innings. Lauer's given up, uh, 17 in 76. Small ballpark.
31:59
Uh, with those two lineups I think, I don't play a lot of these home run props. I think we were texting about this on the group chat the other day, Gill.
32:05
I don't play these homer markets, and every time I look to- Right... play a guy I'm interested, the number looks shorter than I want, but this could be a game where the balls flying out of the ballpark.
32:12
So give me over nine and a half Dodgers and Phillies. And last thing on baseball, uh, I, I've been wheeling some of these American League futures. I me- I've talked about this for a couple weeks. I finally fired on it.
32:23
Orioles-Red Sox exact ALCS matchup 250 to 1. Tigers-Red Sox exact ALC ma- ALCS matchup 80 to 1. Ah. And then the other one was Tigers-Orioles 250 to 1. I just think the American League, the top is so flawed.
32:35
I watch the Yankees every day. Until they get Judge back, they've got plenty of issues and a lot of holes in that lineup. The Mariners don't impress anybody.
32:43
Uh, the Rays are a nice little story, but they're no lock to, to be some force come October. I think any of these teams that can get in have a shot. So Orioles, Red Sox, Tigers, wheel them all.
32:53
Maybe you'll run into one here. I think that's a great strategy. In a year where no team is great in the American League, why not take a flyer on, on a couple of those? Why not in the American League?
33:05
Who, who's offering those exactly, Will? So DraftKings and FanDuel. DraftKings you just have to parlay ALCS participant. It's just worded differently. Okay.
33:15
And, and FanDuel, it spells it out for you where you can actually do one or the other.
33:19
You can do ALCS, name the finalist, or ALCS, name the exact result, where you, you start to pick, you know, Red Sox over Tigers or vice versa, and you get some really long payouts.
33:28
So kinda choose however you wanna do it, and, uh, so, you know, some people, I, I, I tweeted this, some people suggested throw the White Sox in there. I don't mind that.
33:35
I just think it's an American League that's about as wide open as any league I can ever remember. It, which, which it was last year- No doubt... and Toronto emerged.
33:41
So I, I, I think so- some dogs here could be live for sure. For sure. Uh, last thing on baseball. We'll do football on the other side. Um, we usually, Kelly and I, we've been talking about AL MVP.
33:53
I've been behind Jordán Álvarez the whole time, then we talk AL Cy, NL Cy, AL Cy- Yeah... is super interesting. We never talk about NL MVP. You did wanna talk about that?
34:04
Yeah, I, I bet him and gave him out before the year. Ohtani at even money. I said, you know, just put that in the account. D- don't make a case for these other guys.
34:10
I'm usually, it's Ohtani, don't waste your money otherwise. I don't know when he's gonna pitch again. The knee looks gimpy. You can get the field at plus 400. I'm sure in the prediction markets you can get even higher.
34:20
Mm-hmm. He will be in... I, I haven't made a bet yet. He will be an interesting case with how many times he's won. Is there voter fatigue?
34:27
If he doesn't pitch the second half of the year, if he spends some time on the IL with the, with the knee, and you made the point, and it's a great point, the Dodgers, this is a 162-game pre-season for them.
34:36
Are they gonna force- Yeah... the issue with Ohtani? You can get the field almost f- you know, four to one. Again, prediction market's probably a little higher. I don't hate that bet.
34:43
I have a hard time picking who's gonna steal it from him. James Wood seems like a stretch. Uh, Crow Armstrong is the same price as the field, so just take the field. Yeah.
34:51
Schwarber maybe could hit 60 homers, but I just think it's possible, possible that Ohtani doesn't win, and I usually don't say that.
34:58
Smart stuff as always from Will Hill, again, @NotTheWillHill on Twitter, host of the Shoulda Bet More podcast. Let's talk some NFL with Will on the other side. It's a numbers game at V- the Sports Betting Network.
35:15
The Network. [upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. It is a numbers game, duel city numbers game, San Francisco and Las Vegas.
35:31
Gill Alexander, Kelly Bidlin, Will Hill, uh, joining us here. Uh, we get tweets at Beating the Book. LeisureSuitKobe, "So much music talk this week.
35:39
I have this weird thing where when I wake up I literally hear a song from the day before playing in my head. Yesterday I walk into the bathroom around 5:30 in the morning. All I could hear was Since You've Been Gone.
35:48
Thanks, Kelly." Hey. Hey, you're welcome. We got that little gem stuck in your head all week now. [laughs] Me too. Since you've been gone. Oh. Oh, God. Here we go. Um, we have a best list.
35:58
Haven't mentioned we have a best listeners in the game. Yeah, you guys are great. Uh, The Numbers Guys, "Wrong again, Gilly. It wasn't the Bengals. Bo Jackson's career was cut short by Blue Swede."
36:06
[laughs] "Rough start to the morning." Well done. Well done. Well done. Well played. Johnny Brock, "Late post, but what percentage of the pot is LeBron getting from Cal sheet to keep the suspense going?"
36:19
I love how people have all these, uh, conspiracy theories and stuff. Oh, the pot. Okay, I was like, "What?" Yeah. Not the weed, Kelly, the pot of, uh, money. No, I, I thought you said pod, like podcasting for a second.
36:29
Oh, no, I'm sorry. Uh, Kurz, at, uh, yeah, at Fluffy Kittens, he says, "Paula Badosa continues to get away with it. Saved an insane number of break points these last two weeks. It's ridiculous."
36:39
Fading Badosa again this morning. Again, Kawa 0 of nine on break points in the first set. She ends up losing, uh, in straight, so we, we, uh, do not get that one either. So we're 0 and 2, but- But
36:53
we're up a break on Molchan. Buruchaga is up a set on serve in the, uh, second, and Karaeva trying to force a third set. So things looking up here at least currently in these, uh, in these other matches.
37:06
And this one is from, uh [laughs] this one is from, uh, Shooter McGamblin. "If you're an Immaculate Grid fan, you should try the 82 and 0 game. Pick five d- [laughs]...
37:17
uh, pick five NBA players from random eras and try to make a perfect team. Apologies if I'm late, the game's been around." Well, just so happens that Kelly Bidley was playing it this morning.
37:26
Kelly, did you ever get to 82 and 0? Uh, no. It was the best one I sent you, 81 and 1. But I'll say the- 81 and 1... so, so the game came out. I know Will, I'm sure Will's played it a billion times too.
37:36
It came out, I like checked it out when it first came out or when it got popular like a month ago or two months ago, whatever that was.
37:42
Um, but then immediately everybody was tweeting about the Wilt hack, and I was like, "Well, this isn't fun." Like, you could try to like, you try to like game the system.
37:50
So I've kind of enjoyed trying to get the, the best record without Wilt, and oh man, there are some funny, uh, there's some funny combinations.
37:57
All I know, Gil, is I got James Harden to a one win or a one loss basketball team last, uh, last night, okay? Pretty impressive. James Harden. Pretty impressive. He's capable of it- Yeah... apparently.
38:07
This is what happens when your, uh, sink is being fixed as Kelly's was yesterday. Oh, God. You have two hours to play 82 and 0. Thought that was- Uh, last couple here... thought that was gonna be a short process, Gil.
38:14
The guy showed up two hours late and then he was there for an hour and a half. Oh, brutal.
38:19
Montreal Max, "Badosa making it personal now for Gil twice in 48 hours by winning just now after retiring down 0-4 on Monday's delayed final." Oh, don't get me started on her. She's killing me.
38:30
I have, oh, it's personal, it is. B Earl Nelson, "Red Sox, I do have them. Listen every day. Tailed you on it. Could only get 25 to 1 at Circa. That's not a bad hit though. Let's go." Let's go. Let's do it.
38:41
Let's get to 15 in a row, uh, early this morning. Will Hill is kind enough to join us for a second. Um, before we do anything else, Will, did you think about the trivia question?
38:52
A name I mentioned, and I kind of just mentioned it in passing like, "Oh, it can't be Harbaugh 'cause he wasn't a scrambler," but I think he played long enough where, uh, the only cheating I did, I pulled up the NFL just standings, uh, you know, divisions, and just went team by team.
39:05
It has to be Harbaugh. There's no other- That's how I did it... coach that's a running back. Unless I'm missing somebody obvious, I'm gonna go with Jim Harbaugh.
39:12
It is Jim Harbaugh, the answer to the question, which current NFL head coach has more- Ding, ding, ding, ding... regular season rushing yards than Bo Jackson in the NFL? That is incredible. Bo had 2,782.
39:21
Jim Harbaugh had 2,787 as a quarterback for both the Bears and the Colts most famously. Uh, I did it the exact same way you did. I went through 32 teams. I'm like it ha- he's the only one it could be. Yes.
39:34
And that's how you come up with that. Yeah. How did this come up, by the way? W- how did this question come up? It's a good one. Uh, Davey heard it- I think-... somewhere and just, uh, yeah- Yeah...
39:41
he said, he said he was gonna throw it in the rundown for us.
39:42
I'm kind of embarrassed to say this, guys, 'cause I got to Harbaugh pretty quick too, but then you're trying to like, it's like, I gotta, there's someone I gotta be missing, right?
39:51
My next thought, my only other thought- Yes... was like, did Doug Pederson run for like way more than I'm remembering or something? [laughs] That was the on- the other one I had to check on. The answer's no, he did not.
40:01
[laughs] All right, Will, let's talk some NFL. You have not one- Yeah... not two, but three division bets for us. Let's start with the, uh, let's start with the less sexy one, the AFC East. Let's start there.
40:13
Yeah, and as bad as my Megapod was last year, last year in the NFL Guide, I picked the, the Bears and the Panthers and bet both those at long odds to win the division.
40:21
So, uh, hopefully we can, uh, we, we can have a nice year with the divisions and it can lead into more Megapod success, please. Hopefully. Uh, yeah, I like the Bills here.
40:29
I'm looking to fade the Patriots for all of the reasons we know: Super Bowl hangover, the Vrabel distraction, just the difference in schedule from last year to this.
40:36
I worry this is a thing we all say all summer and I'll hear all summer, and then they'll come out and, you know, be 12 and 5 and they'll prove everybody wrong. It does worry me a little bit.
40:44
But Allen with the Bills, you know, he doesn't miss games, knock on wood. You can pretty much pencil him in.
40:49
Uh, his rookie year missed the playoffs, but ever since then you could pencil in for, you know, 11, 12 plus wins. I think this is, uh, pretty playable, pretty cheap at minus 125 Bills to win the division.
41:00
And, um, a, a couple more w- with some meat on the bone. I did take Atlanta, uh, plus 425. I just think that's a division where you're not gonna have to win 12 or 13 games.
41:08
You might win it with nine, you might win it with 10. I love their defense.
41:11
I know we all liked their defense last year, and there's just such a massive upgrade at head coach going from Raheem Morris, who Todd Wischnew will remind us all he's a nice guy, but not a great head coach.
41:21
[laughs] I hear what you think of Stefanski. Stefanski is much better. And they've got weapons, they've got skill guys. We'll see if they can just get competent quarterback play.
41:29
Upgrading coach, soft division, I think there's some value there on Atlanta too at plus 425. Okay. Will, we saved the best for last, and Will, I can already accuse you of being a homer on this one. Yeah.
41:41
NFC North, who you got? I did not like them last year. I didn't think they were making the playoffs, and you know what? They, they're never good two years in a row. Just go back to the, the last 20 years.
41:50
I, I was very skeptical the Vikings would be good. They actually finished over 500 somehow, but I just think this price is a little too long, plus 510 for Minnesota.
41:58
Similar to Atlanta, really good defense, really good skill guys with Jefferson and Addison in a tight end. Pretty good offensive line. Flores is a tremendous coach.
42:06
I do think O'Connell's a little overrated, but that's still a pretty good coaching staff. And like I said, they went 9 and 8 last year.
42:12
They had maybe the worst quarterback play in the entire sport outside of like maybe the Jets. I, I know nobody loves Kyler Murray, nobody trusts him.
42:19
His size, staying healthy, maturity issue, all of that i- is fair, all of it's warranted. If he could just be the 14th, 16th best quarterback in the league, and you know what?
42:28
In that system, with that talent around him, can he be a B minus, C plus quarterback? I, I don't think that's impossible. And, you know, you could say the Lions missed their window.
42:37
The Bears probably come back to the pack after a lot of luck in close games, a lot of comebacks. And who knows with Green Bay? They're not gonna have Parsons for a lot of the year.
42:44
So Minnesota was 14 and 2 playing for the one seed a couple years ago, and then ever since then, everything just completely went sideways. I don't know. Could they get to 11 wins or so and be in the mix for the division?
42:54
I think the plus 510 is a little too long here. All right, let's talk about all these for a second. Love them. So Bills- Sure. Patriots probably considered the only other contender for the division title.
43:07
D- uh, their, their schedule famously going from one of the all-time easiest to a much harder one. It's Josh Allen, it's the Bills. Totally with you there. Uh, the Falcons, sure.
43:17
In a division like the NFC South with, you know, we had Aaron Schatz on earlier this week. He doesn't like the Saints.
43:24
The Panthers, I don't think anybody thinks they're any kind of juggernaut, nor d- nor does anybody -- Maybe some people think the Bucs are still the team to beat, so there, there is that.
43:32
But I don't have any issue with you taking the Falcons if things break right. They have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. So if things break right for the Falcons, I get that play. I like that play. The Vikings,
43:44
that's the only one, right? So n- non-surprisingly. Th- you know, obviously it's a stacked division. The Lions with a much easier schedule.
43:52
Uh, the Bears, who have a great offense, gonna be an atrocious defense, but a great offense. Um, and then of course the Packers are the Packers.
43:59
The Packers have this streak, and, and Kelly and I will talk about the NFC North a little later on the show today. Um, Packers are this perennial playoff-ish team every year it seems like, on the fringe.
44:10
The issue with the Vikings, 'cause you hit on a couple of these things with the Vikings. If Kyler Murray can be 2021 Kyler Murray, or 2024- Right...
44:19
Kyler Murray, where he wasn't injured, and he actually, and history kind of, you know, blurs this.
44:25
He was actually, like, a really, not only a serviceable quarterback, but he was kind of, one of those years he was top 10, fringe top 10, and certainly top 15. The only other puzzle piece to that is it assumes, right?
44:40
'Cause he'll never have as great of receivers. He's never had the, the trio of receivers that he's gonna have this year in Jefferson, Addison, and Juwan Jennings.
44:48
The only thing I worry about is everybody just assumes that Brian Flores is a robot and could put out this elite defense every single year.
44:57
And I say this every year, and then he proves you wrong, and he's like, "Look, I did it again." One of these years he's not gonna have an elite defense, and I wonder if this is that year.
45:07
And if that happens, I wonder if that torpedoes what otherwise was a good handicap. Certainly possible, but, uh, I'll take my chances with Flores. Like you said, he just seems to do it every year.
45:18
And I remember he came in to the, the team a few years ago, and it was a bad defense, and there wasn't a lot of hope, and he got a lot out of them, uh, e- even though the team fell short.
45:26
And I, I think they've only gotten stronger. They took a shot on Banks, the defensive lineman from Florida who's a big boom or bust guy. Had some injury issues, but I think the defense will be good.
45:34
I, I just, I think it's wor- I think it's worth a shot here a little north of five to one. That's, that's definitely your, uh, your onions play of the bunch, that's for sure. Will Hill. Great seeing you, Will.
45:44
Appreciate it. Thank you. Having, having faith and hope- Sure... in the Vikings. What, what could possibly go wrong? Appreciate you guys. Good to see you. I appreciate it. [laughs] Thanks for having me. Let's go.
45:52
Nice, nice job on Jim Harbaugh, too, by the way. First words out of his mouth were Jim Harbaugh, and he quickly dismissed it, but he came back to it. Well done. Uh, we'll come back. Country clubbing.
46:00
A little golf and tennis next on a Numbers Game at VSiN. [upbeat music]
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