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Jul 23, 2024
A Numbers Game | July 23, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | July 23, 2024 | Hour 2
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44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story. They always do. So one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number two of a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
0:11
visa.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin. Um, everybody's so kind on the, on Twitter, really appreciate all the tweets.
0:23
Uh, we'll get to as many as we can, but there's just so many of them today. But everyone's, uh, super funny, [laughs] super funny with, with some of their tweets as well.
0:30
Um, Paul Spores still to come up with, uh, Major League Baseball. Uh, but first, I'm always pumped when this gentleman is kind enough to come on the show.
0:38
We kind of have gotten in this routine, he and I, um, and I say this w- with, with all kinds of gratitude for him. 'Cause w- he comes on the show quarterly during the football season.
0:47
We always do a regular season podcast at Betting The Book, uh, a mega pod during the regular season, and a mega pod during the playoffs typically as well.
0:55
And he always comes on preseason because the dude has been doing an almanac for 20 years now. It is a pioneer in football analytics. He was inspired by Bill James in baseball. You can follow him on Twitter at ASchatzNFL.
1:07
That's S-C-H-A-T-Z. It is the great Aaron Schatz, everybody, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Aaron Schatz's FTN Almanac out now. 20 years, Aaron, what do you have to say for yourself?
1:20
Boy, man, I've been doing this a long time. I'm like a gray old man now. [laughs] But yeah, this is the 20th preseason book.
1:27
It's had three different names, but it's now the FTN Football Almanac, and it's everything people have, uh, known to grow and, and grown to know and love from my gang, which is all the witty writing and the advanced stats and the charting and the fantasy projections and the good team projections that are a little bit different from conventional wisdom and just we, we just sh- stuff this thing chock-full of football goodness.
1:51
I'm all ready for training camp. Yeah. It's... And, and I'm, I'm not just blowing smoke here.
1:54
Like, Joe Peta, who, who I'm sure you're familiar with, Joe Peta, who, uh, is an author himself, he texted me, Mike Tanier, one of your old- one of your staples of course, wrote, you know, among other things, a blurb about the Eagles, and he's an Eagles fan, and he sent it to me.
2:08
And Joe said, and I think this encapsul- uh, encapsulates it. He goes, "It's the best melding of witty writing and actually hardcore analytics there are."
2:17
And that alone I think is what makes your almanacs great through the years. That's what we pride ourselves on. I mean, to be perfectly honest, I mean, I love...
2:26
You know, I think our stats are, are accurate, and I think they tell you a lot about players and teams, but the thing that I stand behind most is that our writing is the most enjoyable of anybody in the analytics field.
2:37
Biggest thing that has changed over the 20 years would be what?
2:44
I mean, the biggest thing that has changed is charting stats, the creation of charting, and then the creation of the next gen stats from the NFL, which we don't have that much access to but has completely changed analytics in the NFL itself.
2:59
My money was on the acceptance of analytics over the 20 years. No question that has changed, definitely. Uh, has been a big change, especially... I mean, teams accept it more now.
3:12
Uh, beat writers, local beat writers really know their stuff when it comes to both scouting and analytics.
3:18
I think that, uh, national color commentators still leave a lot to be desired except for a couple of them like Greg Olsen.
3:24
But, uh, local beat writers are so much smarter than they were 20 years ago, and so it's a huge change. All right. Uh, l- I started...
3:31
Uh, let me start here with Washington because I mentioned them earlier, and obviously that's the team I grew up on. Um, number 32, Aaron, in DVOA. And of course, I went immediately to, after I read your intro...
3:41
By the way, quotes of the year are always funny as well, a staple of all of, of Aaron's almanacs. Um, but I went right [laughs] to the Washington Commanders piece. Mike Tanier happened to write that one as well.
3:52
He was murdering Kliff Kingsbury throughout. It just abs- [laughs] like to the point where I was just laughing out loud. 32 though, man? Oh, come on.
4:02
I mean, it's tough because you can't project rookie quarterbacks to be good. Yeah. And there have been a lot of changes on the roster, but the overall in and out of talent seems to mostly be even.
4:15
It's not like they've added a ton of talent.
4:18
So, so much of it depends on the rookie quarterback, how good is Jayden Daniels as a rookie, and the average likelihood is that he will be bad because that's just how rookie quarterbacks are.
4:29
Now, of all the teams with the rookie quarterbacks, and I would throw Indianapolis into that 'cause Richardson only has a couple of games experience, we are gonna be really wrong about one of them, right? Like- Mm.
4:39
It's very likely that at least one of those teams, probably just one of those teams, will be much better than we're projecting, but we have no idea which one. Yeah.
4:48
You, you actually put, point that out, surprise sort of revelations from the almanac. Chicago and Indy may be expecting too much from young quarterbacks right away.
4:57
One of the other things you noted, Atlanta, which, you know, f- f- flavor of the month, flavor of the year, obviously I get the positives, Kirk Cousins, um, obviously in a division where they can really do well.
5:08
But you say they're def- uh, you know, the, the almanac anyway, the defense ain't good. No. We have them as the worst projected defense in the league.
5:17
I mean, there's a couple of good pieces, primarily in the secondary, Jessie Bates and A.J. Terrell, and I like this kid Clark Phillips who's gonna be the other cornerback, but their front is really lacking.
5:28
There's like no pass rush. Um, there's Grady Jarrett and that's about it, and we just don't project their defense to be very good at all.
5:37
And then the offense, you know, both the Jets and the Falcons, I feel like you cannot write in that Cousins and Rodgers are gonna be as good as they've been in the past when they are old men coming off Achilles injuries.
5:49
You just can't expect that. Yeah. I know something about old men coming off Achilles injuries, that's for sure. I'm, I'm so, uh... It's so fascinating reading it from your perspective.
5:58
Again, Aaron's proprietary stat is DVOA, a granular level of football, play by play, um, going all the way back now to 1979, which is, uh, just a feat in and of itself.
6:10
How far m- how fur- far further back do you think you can go? Is it getting hard? We're gonna have, we're gonna have 1978 next off-season. And then I'm guessing that's it. But you can't find the rest, right?
6:24
1978 is a very convenient starting point, 'cause it's the start of the liberalized passing rules and the 16 game schedule, but also because before 1978, very few people owned VCRs.
6:37
I mean, in 1978, very pe- few people owned VCRs. So I'm not sure if we're gonna be able to get all of 1978, but we'll get enough of it that we'll be able to do 1978 picks, Don.
6:47
And there's no, I guess there's no way to che- you can't cherry pick a team 'cause you're doing it versus the rest of the leagues. I was gonna say- Right...
6:52
the, the dream would have been to get back to the '72 Dolphins, right? Yeah, to get the '70, the '70 Steelers and the '72 Dolphins would have been- Yeah... wonderful to have.
7:02
But the, the whole point of the '72 Dolphins is that they had an easy schedule, and you can't judge how easy that schedule is- Right... for opponent adjustments unless you have the whole league. That's right.
7:11
Um, okay, so I'm just... The, the things from the almanac that I'm, might make people's heads explode. Again, Atlanta's defense, worst, dead last. New England's defense, on the other hand, pretty good. Yes.
7:24
We have New England's defense with the number three projection. Oh, man.
7:27
[laughs] They were 10th, uh, ninth, sorry, ninth in the league last year without depending on turnovers, and they are getting back their best pass rusher and two of their three best cornerbacks who missed basically the entire season.
7:41
Oh, man. Okay. Because we have some bets here. There are going to be a lot of 10 to seven games. Y- [laughs] Oh, no. Don't look at me like that, Kellen. I'm not worried. Oh, man.
7:50
Yeah, yeah, they're gonna lose a lot of sweet 13 to six games. Okay. Okay? Let me look back at you.
7:54
They have a hard sche- they have a hard schedule and a bad offense, but I mean, the fact that they have the lowest over under number at a lot of books, I, I think that's an easy over.
8:05
Hold on, I'm gonna check back with Kelly to see if he's worried now. No? Still? No? No, not worried. Still not worried. Nope. Okay.
8:10
Uh, we have a lot of people here, um, not only on the network, but, but also guests that have come on the network who are very bullish on the Chargers.
8:18
This, Aaron, they say, is the year, because it's a new head coach, uh, it's an easier schedule. There's a lot going in their favor.
8:26
The, the players that they lost, um, are actually good, uh, net losses, if you will, in the scheme of things. That's their point. Uh, but the schedule has a lot to do with it. You view them how?
8:39
First of all, we have them with an average schedule. I don't see how you can think the players they lost are n- a net positive. Keenan Allen and Michael...
8:46
I mean, they're left with Josh Palmer as their number one receiver. Give me a break. Like, this is a quarterback and a coach, and there's very little else there. There's an old pass rusher and a medium aged pass rusher.
8:58
I guess Joey Bosa's not really old, but, um, they, uh... This is a rebuilding year. We feel very strongly this is a rebuilding year for the Chargers. We don't think they're gonna be very good.
9:10
That division is just sitting there for Kansas City to sleepwalk into the playoffs. Uh, we are not high on the Chargers this year at all. I'm definitely under 8.5.
9:20
[laughs] I'm laughing because all of these, like, Washington being 32, Atlanta having dead last defense, New Or- uh, New England having the ninth best defense. Yeah.
9:29
Like, all of these are kind of, like, stunning to some people, I think, our bets. A few red flags for people, for sure. Oh, yeah. Yeah, yeah. I, I mean, the Chargers one, I, I haven't understood this whole time.
9:38
Like, I'm, I'm completely with Aaron. Yeah. A- anybody who scored a touchdown for them in the past decade is gone. [laughs] I didn't say me. I didn't say me. It wasn't me it was on, but, like, a lot of people are.
9:47
I mean, Aaron, who do you- Are they better at right tackle? Yes, they look better at right tackle. Right. Exactly. Uh, A- Aaron, who do you like, uh, who do you think is that second team in the AFC West?
10:00
There doesn't have to be a second. [laughs] Why does there have to be a second team in the AFC West? Kelly, there's only gonna be one team in the standings this year.
10:06
[laughs] There's gonna be one team that wins more than seven games. Like, it's, it, it... That's it. One team will win more than seven games, and that is Kansas City. Oh, wait.
10:14
So, okay, well let's juxtapose this against win totals here after the break. But before we get to the break, 'cause this is interesting, you just, uh, getting into the betting standpoint. But let, let's do one more team.
10:24
The New Orleans Saints, um- I love the Saints this year. You love the Saints. Yes. 'Cause a lot of people think they s- Because- Yeah... a lot of people think they stink, and that's 'cause they're boring,
10:37
and you don't think about them much. But they don't stink. They're very, very average. [laughs] Very average. Like, incredibly average, with a very easy schedule.
10:51
And since we don't think Atlanta is as good as people think- Someone's gotta be good... Tampa Bay is a little... We have Tampa Bay a little bit behind the Saints.
10:57
We have the Saints as the favorite in the NFC South, because they're boring and average. Boring is a crime. I say it often about Washington teams through the years.
11:06
I go, "The w- the worst thing is that they don't only stink, they're boring." Stinking and boring, the... You can't have those two things together. But good and boring, I get your point. It kind of gets lost to the eye.
11:17
I feel like there is money to be made on boring with the New Orleans Saints. That plus 340 to win the division is sweet. [upbeat music] Ooh, hold that thought.
11:26
All right, let's get to some betting numbers with Aaron on the other side. Aaron Schatz's, by the way, it's like, again, it's like a Barry Gordy's Last Dragon kind of thing, a Neil Simon's play kind of thing.
11:36
Aaron Schatz's FTN Almanac, the 2024 version. We'll tell you the easiest way to get it as well on the other side. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:44
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN Sports Betting Network The VSiN NFL betting guide is out now, and our all-new college football guide drops August 1st.
12:06
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12:09
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12:16
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12:29
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12:39
Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin here on The Numbers Game at VSiN, the Sports Betting Network, from Barcanada, The Barrage, here at the D. Aaron Schatz [clears throat] kind enough once again to join us for a second segment.
12:49
The 2024 FTN Football Almanac, or better said, Aaron Schatz's FTN Football Almanac 2024 is out. Aaron, if you could let everybody know the easiest way they could get a copy would be how?
13:02
Well, you wanna check out ftnfantasy.com, where we have all kinds of projections and optimizer tools for DFS, and our new stats hub is awesome. DVOA splits by charting categories.
13:16
That'll get you a discount on the book, but to find the book itself, ftnfantasy.com/almanac, or for the big physical copy with Travis Kelce on the cover, you want to go to Amazon and search for FTN Football Almanac 2024.
13:31
I'm getting a phone call, apparently. Oh. We'll just ignore that for now. Is that a rotary phone you have there, Aaron, or is that just a rotary s- sound on the- I'm gonna guess the ringer.
13:38
That's just a rotary sound on myself. Oh, man. I was hoping for the same thing. Yeah. I won't. 'Cause I didn't realize I still had the ringer on. [laughs] All right. Um, okay.
13:47
So we, you started to bleed into this before the break. So you love the Saints to win the NFC South at plus 340 you said? Yes, absolutely.
13:57
I feel that the Saints are the best team in that division in that they are boring and average, and therefore that is great odds. Okay. Um, did I hear that you probably love the Patriots over season win total? Yes. Yes.
14:14
Not, I wouldn't touch them to go to the playoffs, but yes, the Patriots over. At some books they're the lowest team.
14:21
At some points, some books they're tied with Carolina, and at some books they're the lowest team, and I think they're gonna win six or seven games because of defense, and because Jacoby Brissett gives them a higher floor than Drake May.
14:32
Yeah. I was just mentioning off air, uh, Jerod Mayo with the, uh, the quote this morning about, uh, Jerod Mayo, courtesy of the, uh, Will Hill, by the way. Or no, Chris Falica, by the way, courtesy.
14:43
He said, uh, Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo on the team's quarterback competition, quote, "Coming out of spring, I think it's clear Jacoby is the most pro-ready guy we have."
14:51
Uh, no surprise that Jacoby's gonna, uh, start day one. Um, pro-ready, that's an interesting, uh, turn of phrase. Okay. Pro-ready for a guy who's been in the league for nine years, sure, okay. Yeah. [laughs] Um, okay.
15:05
Uh, what else did you like? When you look, 'cause you're not a guy who's necessarily looking at betting odds every day. You're a guy who's immersed in putting out your almanac, for God sakes, and, and looking at stats.
15:15
What caught your eye besides those two? Uh, we like going under on the Bears and the Colts because of what I said about rookie quarterbacks, and Richardson is effectively a rookie, being hard to project.
15:29
And the Bears' defense, uh, while it was pretty good in the second half last year, uh, was very dependent on takeaways, and that tends to regress towards the mean.
15:38
So, uh, I think that the Bears, the Bears could be pretty good, right? I think that there's a, a wide range of possibilities for the Bears, but it's more likely that they're gonna go under the eight and a half.
15:50
And I feel the same way about the Indianapolis Colts, who by DVOA were not as good as their win-loss record last year, and the expectation for Richardson can't be that he's gonna be better than Minshew, because we just haven't seen much of him yet, and he is effectively a rookie.
16:07
Hmm. Okay. Um, we just talked here on the show before you came on about the NFC N- uh, excuse me, the AFC North.
16:15
And I, you know, I talked about how Baltimore last year by your DVOA, I think they had the fifth-greatest DVOA of all time, yeah? Was that it? Yeah, regular season. Regular season they were one of the top 10 teams.
16:27
I don't remember exactly which number they were, and the 49ers were too. But the Ravens, they just had these huge wins over really good opponents all regular season long.
16:36
So even with all that they've lost in the off-season, we still end up with the Ravens projected as the top team in the AFC, just a little bit ahead of Kansas City.
16:45
One of the great things in the almanac, I was reading the Cleveland Browns blurb, um, and it talked about, and I mentioned this, uh, a couple segments ago, about as great as their defense was, and it was an all-timer,
16:59
as great as their defense was, fifth-best defense you said of the DVO era to not lead the league in defensive DVOA, narrowly finished behind Baltimore, but they were the best by far against wide receiver ones,
17:09
that they should have been even better. I love these kinds of things, 'cause we obviously talk about this in baseball, what is sustainable, what is unsustainable?
17:15
And the Brownies defense, terrible in the red zone, even though they didn't let, allow teams a lot in the red zone, they were still, uh, they still had a terrible rate in terms of letting the other team score once in there.
17:26
Um, they had poor fumble luck, and they had so many more interception-worthy plays that they actually turned into interceptions. So it could have been that much better.
17:37
Does that factor into how you view the Browns this year? Yeah. I'm, I'm higher on the Browns than the market. Not by, like, a colossal amount, but I'm higher on the Browns than the market.
17:48
Y- you know, it's a little bit of a, another team where you don't know what...
17:52
There's a lot of we don't know what we're getting from the quarterback this year, between the rookies and Richardson, and the two guys coming off Achilles injuries. And then what is Deshaun Watson at this point?
18:02
I mean, I think you have to assume he's the bad quarterback of the last year and a half. But he might not be. They'll be better, they'll be better than eight and a half certainly if he's better than that.
18:14
But their defense is good enough that even if Watson is the guy from the last year and a half, they should beat the eight and a half. Okay. How about, you know, schedule? We, we talk about schedule.
18:24
When the schedule c- first of all, we know what the teams are gonna be once the previous regular season ends. We know who the opponents are gonna be. We just don't know- Yeah... how it's gonna be sequenced.
18:31
Then when the schedule comes out, and we, in betting circles, make a huge deal about this because, and, and you actually say this, uh, year after year in the, in the Almanac as well, schedule matters. It...
18:42
If you don't think it does- Yeah... you're fooling yourself.
18:44
And the Bengals go from having the ninth hardest schedule of all time, all time being in the DVOA e- era of, uh, era of s- from since 1979, ninth hardest of all time to projected to be the fourth easiest with Joe Burrow now in the fold.
19:01
How do you view the Bengals? Yeah, I mean, I think the [laughs] Bengals are pretty good competitors this year. This is a pretty good division. I, I have the Steelers lower, uh, than the, than the conventional wisdom.
19:12
I have the Steelers lower than the market, but I mean, the Ravens, Bengals, and Browns are all really good teams. They, uh, the, the Ravens and Browns have e- have, uh, average schedules.
19:22
The Bengals have an easy schedule 'cause they were last place in this division last year. So yeah, I like the Bengals. Here, here's the one thing about the Bengals. Jake Browning was so good last year- Yeah...
19:32
that they don't gain much by getting Burrow back. Interesting.
19:37
I mean, I would rather have Burrow than Browning as my starting quarterback because your projection going forward is clearly that Burrow has way more of a record of being that good, right?
19:47
Browning, it was probably, like, fluky, but it happened. So it's not like, it's not like, uh, the Chargers who are going from Easton Stick to Justin Herbert.
19:57
Like, Browning was pretty good, so the Bengals aren't gonna be that much better than last year, but the schedule's a lot easier.
20:03
Dan, and I should step in here because the anti-analytics people who hear something like that, they only hear what they wanna hear, and their heads explode.
20:10
What Aaron is saying is the production of Jake Browning last year, forget that his name was Jake Browning. The production- Yeah... of his games was almost Joe Burrow level, if not Joe Burrow level.
20:22
So therefore, what is being replaced is that production. It was like when, uh, Kirk Cousins got signed by the Vikings. I used to say, "He's replacing Case Keenum production." Case Keenum production- Right...
20:32
that was the greatest year of his career. So in a one-year pocket, it, it might not mean a lot. But as you just said, moving forward long-term, that's when it will matter.
20:42
But from one year to the next, he's the guy, that production to replace. We do that in baseball a lot, too. Uh, okay. Right. What they're pr- they're replacing is the best few games that Jake Browning- That's right...
20:52
will ever have. [laughs] Will, will ever have. And Jake Browning, very content to just be the backup in Cincinnati. He's like, "No, I'll stay right here and be a backup." Okay. Uh, Saints to win the division.
21:01
Patriots over. Bears and Colts under. Anything else? Uh, Houston Texans, uh, and Miami Dolphins to win the Super Bowl. Oh. I like those odds. I like those odds. I, um,
21:18
uh, we have, uh, Houston is currently at, uh, 1600. We think it should be closer to, like, 1200. And, uh, Miami is at 2200, and we think that should be closer to, like, 1600.
21:31
What was your Houston projec- projection again? From what to what? What did you say? From g- the, the, the line is, is 1600, and I think it should be closer to, like, 12. Okay. 1200. All right.
21:40
Miami and Houston to win the Super Bowl. I would imagine- I mean, they're not our favorites. Right. They're not our favorite. But the value. But they have the best odds. Yeah, the value. Value is value. Um, okay.
21:50
Any award? Do you even project awards at the beginning? Like, is there anybody there that you've seen? No.
21:57
Uh, Brian Knowles and Cale Clinton will write an article at the FTN, uh, Fantasy DVOA page about their award picks. But I, I won't really talk about award, uh...
22:08
I don't really do any projections of awards or anything like that. Okay. But you remain an awards voter, yes? I am. I am, uh, still an awards voter.
22:15
With the new Comeback Player of the Year Award rules, I'm, I'm all there for it. Yeah, you were the guy who tipped us off that they would change. We should've started with that, yes. Yeah. Yeah.
22:24
Should've started with that. That's right. Well, we did a whole thing on it. We did, yeah. Uh, Aaron, we will lean on you to, uh, sort of, uh, get your thoughts mid-season on wha- which way you might be leaning on those.
22:35
You're always very generous with that. Yeah. Hopefully folks will check out the, check out the book, and we'll ta- I'll talk to you after, like, week four. My man. FTN Football Almanac. Aaron Schatz.
22:44
Thank you so much, Aaron. Baseball with Paul Sporer next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Hey, don't forget to check out our website, vsin.com. VSiN 3.0, Kelly. Bam.
23:01
Best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles, odds by state, betting tools. Not individuals, just betting tools to help you bet, not making commentaries on people.
23:11
[laughs] Betting guides, of course, all at vsin.com, front page right now. Uh, Nigel Sealey on Olympic soccer 2024. Olympic soccer, Kelly. But- Catch the fever... catch the fever.
23:21
Michael Lombardi, biggest question facing each NFC team. He's got a piece about that. And JVT on men's basketball. Where do we, where do we stand? That's all on vsin.com, by the way.
23:31
Where do we stand on this men's basketball team? 43-point favorites against South Sudan. They barely win. They win by one. Then they just get by Germany 'cause LeBron had a nice final minute. Um- LeBron's been huge.
23:45
He's been unbelievable. But it's like- You see AD on the way out. He's like, "Well, it's amazing what he can do at 45." [laughs] But, like, it's kinda sad, right? Like- That's what I'm saying.
23:54
Like, we're- Like, it's kinda sad. You need great LeBron- They shouldn't be minus-... in the closing minutes against these teams. I mean, Germany's good this year. I, they...
24:01
But how are we minus- But still, they were what, an eight-point, nine-point favorite in that game? How are we minus 500 to win this if we're just squeaking by? I don't know.
24:08
It's a lot of, uh, it, it, it, it's kind of like how I talk about the Titans wide receiving corps.
24:13
Like, it looked, it looked great on Madden three years ago, but, like, we're get- yeah, these guys are getting a little long in the tooth. Joel Embiid's been a disaster.
24:22
[laughs] To, a- as much as Joel Embiid can be a disaster, 'cause he's still really good. But, like, the Anthony Davis bam out of bio minutes have been incredible.
24:31
That, that's where I'm inter- I'm interested to see if there's some lineup changes as we get closer. A- and you made this point off air, which I think is a good one.
24:36
As, as mad as Jalen Brown has been about being snubbed- Mm-hmm... and I get it, but they do need players like Derrick White on that team. Th- th- that's, like, when I've watched- Yeah...
24:46
the things that have stood out the most to me are the role players- Yeah... who know how to be role players, and those are Jrue Holiday [laughs] and Derrick White. It's, you know how to act.
24:55
And Jrue Holiday's been, I mean, he's been incredible. He's, he's so good. Talks of baseball, ladies and gentlemen. He comes to us from FanGraphs. You can follow him on Twitter at Sporer, S-P-O-R-E-R.
25:05
From Austin Texen cour- uh, Austin, Texas, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, it's Paul Spore, everybody, with his, uh, Washington Nationals hat. Always appreciate it. No. No, no, no, no, no, it's a Walgreens hat.
25:16
Oh, it's your Walgreens hat. [laughs] Down with CVS. This is, this is a Walgreens hat. [laughs] Down with CVS. [laughs] Hey, so Kelly, uh, sits next to me. I don't know if you know this, uh, Paul.
25:23
There's screens behind him, and, uh, Tarik Skubal's stats since September 1st, 2023 just came up. This after he- Do you guys show those in open public? That's kind of- [laughs]...
25:34
perverse to put that kind of nastiness on a screen that children could view. [laughs] But okay. It is, it is nasty. Derrick Sc- uh, Tarik Skubal with another great performance yesterday against the Guardians.
25:43
Your Tigers with the best record in the month of July. Skubal wins. This is from, from September 1st, September 1st, 2023. Since then, minimum 20 starts. First in wins, 15, or tied for first in wins, 15.
25:58
First in ERA, 2.06. First in f- in FIP, 2.28, fielding independent. First in opponent's batting average, 188. First in opponent's OPS, 528. First in war, 5.3. Let me just ask you this, and they're going to trade him?
26:13
Is that going to happen? No. No. No, no, no, no, no, no.
26:17
You know, there's some rumors floating around, and if it's for some of the stuff that was being talked about, uh, that the Orioles would give, I actually might be open to it.
26:26
But people were putting out some pretty realistic heavy-hitting deals that the Tigers would get. You're talking, you know, three major guys.
26:36
I think Holiday or Basallo has to lead a deal, and then Kjerstad or Kauser has to come too. I mean, you'd be talking a major deal for the Tigers to do that.
26:44
I don't think there's any way they do it unless somebody like Baltimore comes with fundamentally changing stuff. Jack Flaherty, on the other hand, should be dealt, almost regardless of how the Tigers are doing.
26:55
I, it's a little dicey if they're, like, over 500 and they keep playing this well.
27:00
But if they're kind of treading the way they are right now, which is playing well but still pretty out of it, uh, I think you need to trade Flaherty.
27:07
But Skubal would have to be organizational changing deal, otherwise you're not even entertaining it. Yeah, I brought this up before.
27:14
When you were on two months ago, we did, we did exact as a division, three of the six look good. I actually retweeted this morning. Three of the six look good still.
27:21
Three not so much, but one of the three that is not so much is the AL Central, where you, somewhat homer-ish, but maybe not all homer-ish. You said Royals- A little bit. Yeah, Royals-Tigers.
27:31
The Royals p- the Royals part feels like it's gonna happen, doesn't it? Uh, the Royals parts, the Royals part of that's feeling a lot better, and I did acknowledge a little bit of homer-ness for my Tigers.
27:41
But it was because, in fairness, I said I believe that the offense is a lot better than it's shown to go with this great pitching that w- the Tigers have had all year.
27:49
And what has happened, at least to this point, the offense has stepped up, coalesced around that pitching, and the Tigers are playing some of the best ball in the league.
27:57
That said, I have my realistic expectations about them, where I still think they are very much a fringe contender at best. The Royals are a legitimate contender, though. I'm talking full scale.
28:07
I think they are a World Series contender. That doesn't mean they're going to win it, but the Royals have enough juice, and I have confidence that they will make moves at the deadline.
28:15
They already went out and got Hunter Harvey, which is a small but incremental improvement. I like when they go out and go out and get the guy early. I love when teams do that.
28:24
So I think the Royals are absolutely for real. Tigers have the best record in July, 12 and 5. The Royals are in ninth place, uh, currently at nine and six.
28:33
I bring that up because we have Royals bets here to have the most wins in the month of, uh, July. So I'm gonna need your Tigers to lose a few games here, Paul. But- Okay. [laughs] I, but I watch Bobby Witt every day now.
28:44
Um- Mm-hmm... and you just, there's, you know, like, I remember there were years where I'd watch all these baseball games in a sports book, and R- Ronald Acuna Jr.
28:53
would be, like, the best player most nights in all of baseball. Bobby Witt Jr., and I know Judge is probably gonna win the MVP, and Bobby Witt Jr. is 10 to 1, and he's not.
29:03
But e- every night you watch him, you just think to yourself, like, "How is this dude not the best player in baseball?" He is insane. And the only way Bobby Witt Jr.
29:14
isn't is that there's a handful of other guys who are on his level. It, it, it's really a depth of superstars that is the only thing that keeps him from being that, because he's very much right at the top of the heap.
29:26
In the conversation, you can make a very strong case that Bobby Witt Jr. is the best player in baseball. But you can do so for a handful of other guys, including Judge, including Ohtani, even though he's DH only. Yeah.
29:36
You know, Betts when he's healthy. Soto is, uh, you know, arguably the very best hitter. Uh, doesn't bring a defensive component at center field like Judge or at shortstop like Witt.
29:47
Gunnar Henderson has emerged just as quickly and just as, uh, excellently.
29:51
So there, it's only that there's a case for others more so than it is anything against Witt, at least from my standpoint, 'cause the dude is unbelievable.
29:59
He is special, and he looks like the guy that is gonna take this KC team and put them in another, uh, you know, period of prominence here.
30:06
They didn't really carry it Forever with that recent team that, uh, won the title, although they did, they did go to back-to-back World Series, so I'm not here to disparage them.
30:14
But I think they could open a window where they're kind of running the division for a while, um, you know, if, if the other teams in the Central don't kind of, uh, catch up to the Royals, 'cause they're in a good spot right now.
30:24
We have a, uh, a network-wide futures baseball contest, show versus show versus show throughout the network. Love it. And we're allowed to make a, a, a baseball bet that goes to the end of the season.
30:35
We're also allowed to change it if we think it's, it's a sucky bet at some point, but we'll lose the unit, basically, on the way to the final net tally. Um- Got it...
30:43
I had Mike Somich on from another show here, The Handle, and he was like, "Oh, me and Matt have the Royals," on their show, they have the Royals to win the division. He's like, "Uh, we probably have to change that."
30:51
I'm like, "No, no, no, don't change it. That's actually a great bet." Uh-oh. We have the Braves to miss the playoffs, and we got it at eight to one.
31:01
And the Braves right now, and again, just sometimes this happens with teams, where you just get riddled with injuries. Yeah.
31:07
They are three and a half games clear of being on the outside looking in, and a whole mess of baseball still to be played.
31:17
People, should they, should people bet that now at current prices, which is right around where we got it still?
31:24
I think if, if you believe in it, th- they just got two more legs cut out with Ozzie Albies and Max Fried going out. They are just being bludgeoned.
31:33
I really think you're gonna look up and you're gonna be able to kind of give...
31:36
Even if they make it and have a quick exit or, or just miss the playoffs, I don't think it's gonna be some sort of epic collapse where Anthopoulos's deal or, uh, um, uh, job will be in danger or we start saying, "Turn over the team."
31:48
I think it's gonna end up being an injury washout season. You already lost your ace and stud, who are two of the very best players in baseball in Strider and Acuna. Harris is out, uh, for a while. Albies out now.
31:59
Fried out now. That alone is a pretty good, you know, again, excuse is the wrong word, 'cause it's the reason. It's not an excuse, it's the reason.
32:07
And yes, every team gets injuries, and some teams' seasons are ruined by those injuries, 'cause that's a, that's the first thing you hear when people bring up injuries for some- "Well, every team gets them."
32:16
Yes, that is true, and some teams can fight through them and other teams have their entire season ravaged by them. Atlanta is on a fast track to that.
32:23
The fact that they've even been holding on with the earlier injuries is impressive, and they are still nine games over 500. But that offense, it is dicey. There's a guy named Nacho Álvarez Jr.
32:33
batting second, and really no shade to him, it's not his fault he's got thrust into that job, but the number two batter for Atlanta should be somebody that most people know if you're even a casual fan of baseball and, and most people don't know who Nacho Álvarez Jr.
32:47
is. So long story short, I like that deal. I think right now is when you wanna get in, because a- if they do start to fade the way you believe, that price is obviously only gonna get worse for Atlanta.
32:57
Real quick, last 20 seconds. What about people who say Yankees are 20 to one to miss the playoffs? They're about five and a half clear. I can't get there.
33:06
I, I, I, 'cause I think that they're gonna add too many reinforcements. Yes, they are kind of a bit of a two-man lineup, but that's two of the very best players in all of baseball. I, I, I can't do that.
33:15
And I don't even like the Yankees, but I, I wouldn't do that. [laughs] I think they make the playoffs. What a fun bet that would be to, uh, to root against the Yankees the rest of the way. Right?
33:23
They're a little further, uh, in, if you will, than the Braves are- Agreed... in the NL, so it's gonna be interesting. But the Yankees, man, that lineup, man. Paul, always a pleasure.
33:33
Thanks for the, uh, for the Walgreens hat. Appreciate it, man. [laughs] Thank you, guy. Paul Spohrer @spohrer. Kelly and I coming back on the other side on a momentous day in VSiN history.
33:42
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33:59
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34:14
Gil Alexander, Kelly Fidlin live here at Bar Canada at The D on a numbers game. We get tweets at Beating the Book. Um, so very many yesterday. Too many to, uh, to respond to. Um, again, on the heels of, uh,
34:31
Bill Adee and Brian Musburger, the original founders of VSiN, buying VSiN back from DraftKings. VSiN 3.0, which we're all very pumped about here. Um, we get tweets.
34:42
Sean Foxplays, he found a little, uh, Lisa Carrington on the canoe, Kelly. Women's- Oh, really? Women's 500 meter gold medal winner. She's plus 145. She's a co-favorite. So Drew says if you can find that. Found it.
34:56
They, uh... I, I wonder if the canoeing is being done in Tahiti as well, as I just learned the surfing is being done. So you just sent me this text. It's insane.
35:06
So- I, I, so I saw this yesterday, and what I thought it was, Gil, was I thought it was, I thought it was another one of these,
35:13
like, the US, [laughs] like hasn't this become a thing since COVID where, like, the, th- didn't the whole US team, like, b- wasn't there, weren't we on a cruise ship, like, every sport last time around?
35:24
Or am I just making this up? You're looking at me like I'm making this up. Was it Olympics related they were on cruise ships? Or what? Thought so, yeah. Oh, I don't remember that at all.
35:30
Yeah, 'cause, like, it was c- you know, around COVID, right? Oh, yeah. So it was that reasoning, and then I think the men's basketball team has done that multiple times before.
35:38
So yesterday I saw this story, and I thought they were just talking about the US surfing team and, but no, I didn't read the whole story. So, so let me explain- Yeah... what people, what you're talking about.
35:47
2024 Olympic surfers will compete in Tahiti, over 9,000 miles away from Paris. Many are staying in the first floating Olympic village, a 230-passenger ship named, uh, Aranui 5, and the size of this thing is amazing.
36:04
I mean, that sounds like a party. I was gonna say, no shenanigans on that one. Right. [laughs] A bunch of surfers on a cruise ship in Tahiti by themselves. Well, what do you guys wanna do now?
36:14
Who's, who's policing fake stats? [laughs] Uh, let's see. Birdie at Birdie Bets, "Steelers schedule's very tough. Let's not lose sight that a 10-win defense from 2023 added Patrick Queen to middle linebacker.
36:28
There is a world where that defense and head coach are good enough to mitigate that schedule." So there's a vote for the Steelers from Birdie. Um, The Numbers Guys, "How about a Ravens Orioles championship parlay?
36:38
DVOA gonna support the Ravens again in '24?" Uh, Aaron sure seemed to suggest that it would. They're his number two DVOA team headed into the year.
36:46
This is from Dukes in the P&W, uh, "Regarding your convo with Jason yesterday on United States politics, um, have Patty Power or any other Euro book putting the Dems as a plus 350 dog in general election considered the Taylor Swift endorsement earthquake coming late September?"
37:03
It's interesting, by the way. That may sound funny to people, but it's interesting. I was just gonna ask. Yeah. Is that, like, a... Is that, like, a thing?
37:12
Well- Like, have you heard s- Is, is that something people are talking about? I- what Dukes is suggesting is, is that Taylor Swift would back the Democratic candidate. Right. And that that would,
37:24
that would motivate young voters to come out in a voting bloc. Right. That is what he's suggesting. Again, I do it apolitically. I'm just re- reporting to you what he suggested. Have you heard...
37:34
Like, is this a thing, though? Have you heard this before? Well, she carries influence, is the point, and she has been political in her previous documentaries. Okay. I, I get all of that.
37:47
I'm just asking if you've heard this. [laughs] Like, is this a thing that's been talked about? Well, I mean, I'm not really a Swiftie, so I don't really know. [laughs] But I'll get back to you. [laughs] Okay.
37:55
After I do a lot of TikTok research today. You s- you didn't look that surprised reading the, reading the tweet. No. That's all I was, that's why I'm asking.
38:01
No, in the, in the sense that if there's anybody on Earth, she's the most famous person on Earth. In total, yes. So if she decided to say something, to think that that would be inconsequential would be wrong.
38:13
I mean, I think i- of any, of all the people on Earth that should understand this best, it is football fans and sports fans, right? Yeah. I mean, we, we saw what, what- That's right...
38:21
what that impact was like last year. Exactly right. Sky High, "Quarterback may be the most important position on the field, worth up to seven points of the spread, but Mike Tomlin is worth nine wins to this season."
38:30
[laughs] I've heard about that guy. That's right. Um, Rich PSMO talking about the, uh, AFC Championship, which I brought up last year.
38:38
Uh, "Hardball allowing Lamar to keep throwing in the Chiefs game was one of the worst cases of coaching malpractice in the history of the NFL. He is the head coach. He could have stopped it, so obvious."
38:46
Trip Tepper, this is a great point, by the way, which I should have made on the spot, but I didn't, because both Trip Tepper and Michael Maussano have made this via text.
38:53
He said, Trip Tepper says, "Just imagine if the Falcons had a 2024 top 10 draft pick they could have used to bolster that defense. Oh, wait." It's insane. Maussano actually almost par- almost parroted that.
39:05
He said, "The hilarious nature of what Aaron just said about the Falcons being the worst defense in the NFL, and they go pick a quarterback first instead of Turner or Murphy, the two best projected defensive players in the draft.
39:14
They obviously don't use Aaron's Almanac." Such a great point. Yeah. But hey, look, but they got Michael, uh, they got Michael Penix Jr., so. Yeah, they're, they're set for...
39:24
[laughs] What was the quote from the organization? They're, like, set for the next five years or something? You're like, "Yeah." When you have an opportunity- Sweet... to, uh, be set for the next five years.
39:32
Yeah, something like that, you just gotta take it. Uh, Nevada Azer, "In regards to National League Cy Young award, Dylan Cease has skyrocketed up the board using the Tom Tango formula.
39:43
I have him at number two, only behind Sale, and just ahead of Glasnow and Wheeler. Uh, FanDuel has Cease 100 to one. With 11 or so starts remaining, it's going to be a drag race to the finish." Yeah, I...
39:56
You know, what, the other thing about the Scubal thing, getting to the American League, for those of us who have Seth Lugo tickets, if Scubal were to get traded to the Dodgers, and Paul Spore is saying it's not happening, but if that happens, that games the Cy Young markets as well, 'cause you would no longer- Yeah, it's you...
40:13
be eligible for the AL. Yeah. Yeah. By the way, you would no longer, I don't... You would no longer really be eligib- you would be eligible for the NL. You just wouldn't win. You just wouldn't win it. Yeah. Yeah.
40:22
Um- It's definitely one of the things you gotta keep in mind, eh, I mean, if you're betting on that kind of stuff right now.
40:28
John Balducci, "I know one person out there won't like this, but the f- this three-teamer is plus 170. Chiefs division winner, Georgia to make the playoffs, Igor French winner.
40:38
And call me r- rogue, but primetime action, 10-hour workdays inside better than West Nile outside." [laughs] Yeah. Who won't, who won't like your parlay? Is that- I, I was gonna say, I think...
40:49
I mean, like, I've heard multiple people discuss the, um, yeah, like the col- the college football one, right? Like, Ohio State, if you just did an Ohio State, Georgia to make the playoffs parlay.
40:59
Like, is that losing in the, in the, in this new setup of how we're, uh, how we're doing the playoff now. People love themselves some cross-sport parlays, man. You know, and I do think...
41:07
Like, I, I think the, I think the Chiefs are just once again s- like [laughs], like Aaron said, they are just gonna stroll through that division. That was, that was interesting. I was... So this is the next one.
41:19
I felt like I irritated him with that question. No, you didn't. Where he was like... Like, it's just, who is it? You- Like, I don't think it's the Chargers. I don't know who the second-best team is in that division.
41:27
Nathan Henry actually tweets in. He says, "I'd be interested in hearing what you and Kelly thought was the most surprising thing that Aaron shared in his segment today. Thank you." Um- Oh, good call...
41:36
it's a great question, because he shared a lot of surprising things, I think. By the way, you know what happens when I... Let me just, brief aside.
41:43
All of, every host, every guest, every sport, all of our picks are at vsan.com/picks.
41:49
I have found lately when I've given them out on the show, all the ones that win overnight, right, the people, the subscribers have, they win, and then when we give them out on the show, they tend to, to, you know, go either way.
41:58
Well, yesterday they lost. We had two picks. Borna Coric, that match against, uh, Tennys Sandgren. You know Tennys Sandgren, don't you? Mm-hmm.
42:07
Uh, that m- match got canceled, so the only other play I had was Aslan Karatsev as a dog against, uh, Billy Harris. I didn't give it out. I meant to.
42:16
I said I was going to, and, uh, on the air that is, but it was on the vsin.com/picks page. Karatz up a set and a break, of course. Um, what is the most surprising thing that Aaron Schatz said? To me,
42:30
I mean, good God, the Falcons having the absolute worst defense in the NFL, 32. Wash- I'll say Washington being 32 overall. Like, really? The Washington Commodores are the worst team in the NFL?
42:46
I mean, I get the reasoning, but they're not worse than the... There was so much. But here are the, here are the- I want, I wanna say, I wanna say Dolphins to win the Super Bowl actually.
42:54
Right, but those are just value plays. But, yeah, but they're, but they're value plays. Here are your candidates. Patriots to win, to go way over their season win total, and to have the ninth best defense.
43:04
Option two, Washington 32 worst overall. Option three, Atlanta 32nd worst overall defense. Mm. Fourth, New Orleans to win the NFC South. Um, either the first or fourth. Yeah, I don't remember what order.
43:22
See, see, way over, like, like, if you're using the words way over, could the Patriot... Am I gonna- He said way over... am I gonna be shocked if the Patriots go over their win total? No, because it's so low. Right.
43:33
If we're saying way, like, if we're saying Patriots- He said, he said seven wins. I will be pretty shocked if the Patriots get seven wins.
43:39
It's hard to cobble together seven wins on just being able to win games 10 to seven. Yeah. A- and I get his point on the Saints. I did bet the Falcons a little bit the other day, uh, to win that division.
43:50
I, just the more, the more I've gone through that division, it's just each one of tho- each one of those other three teams seem, they seem s- they seem significantly set further back than where the Falcons are.
44:04
He had a lot of interesting takes, though. I get what he's talking about with the Saints. Indianapolis and Chicago going under their season wins. Yeah, I don't, I don't, I don't mind that. I mean, I bet the Bears under.
44:14
A very defiant Kelly Bidlin in all of Aaron Schatz statements. What? [laughs] Host on guest violence. Ladies and gentlemen, Vsin 3.0. We are here to stay. We appreciate it as always.
44:27
Enjoy from Vsin, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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