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Jul 23, 2025
A Numbers Game | July 23, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | July 23, 2025 | Hour 1
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44:11
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. [upbeat music] Wednesday edition of a Numbers Game.
0:13
Matt Brown in for Gil Alexander. Kelly Bidlin on the desk with me. Be joined a little later by Will Hill, talk some baseball with him. Our very own Jonathan Vontobel's gonna come in here and talk about college football.
0:25
We have a guide coming out, and if you are not already a VSiN Pro subscriber, get on it. Do it. The best thing that we do. It really is. How else do I get paid? Come on. It takes a million, it takes a million man-hours.
0:36
I can't prove that. [laughs] But I'm just gonna say it takes a million man-hours to make that guide. And 900,000 come from Adam Burke. [laughs] Yes, yes.
0:43
And it is, uh, it's something, something that, again, if you are a college football bettor, it saves you so much time. You don't know where these guys transferred, all the different stuff like that.
0:50
So again, get in on that. We'll talk to Jonathan Vontobel about the conferences that he previewed in this. If you want to join the show, @MattBrownM2, @KellyBidlin.
1:00
Let us know how we are just enriching your day because I feel like that's what all the tweets tell us. Ooh, that's a good, that's a good one. Yeah. Enriching your day. Yeah. Yeah.
1:06
I feel, I feel like that's what everyone wants to tell us, is just how great we're doing [laughs] on Twitter. [laughs] That's- That's what, what Twitter was made for. That's right.
1:12
I had someone scream at me already this morning that I, uh, didn't give all my golf plays out on the podcast yesterday. Mm. Coming up in a little bit, though, on this show, I'll have them.
1:20
Before you guys do it, yes, I gave out one play yesterday, and yes, it lost, and it lost awesome. Here's the thing. Oh, you're fired.
1:26
Had it not been for the Dodgers', uh, bullpen melting down, not only was my under eight, it would've actually been the highest scoring game in Major League Baseball yesterday.
1:35
So not only did it not go under, it actually would've been the highest scoring game in all of the league, but it ended up being only the second-highest scoring game in all of the league.
1:43
Uh, yeah, the Pittsburgh Pirates decided they could hit for all of the sudden. Wow. Whoa. And yeah, yeah. And go out, score eight runs in that one. But the real headline of yesterday,
1:54
Logan Gilbert made no friends in Wisconsin. Logan Gilbert goes out, dominates the Milwaukee Brewers. Six and a third, 10 K's for him, and denies the whole state hamburgers. And that is really the lead story here.
2:10
12 r- 12 wins in a row gets you hamburgers in the state of Wisconsin, and instead the Mariners win one to nothing. At George Webb's. One to noth- yeah, you had to look it up, didn't you? I had to look it up again.
2:22
[laughs] Yeah, you had to look it up. I forgot, I forgot the name again. [laughs] One-nothing over the Brewers. A lone solo shot by Cal Raleigh, his 39th home run of the year, and you do not get free hamburgers.
2:36
The streak stops at 11. They do not make it a dozen. Uh, i- i- am, am I going over the top on this? But they've been running this promotion for 80 years, before the Brewers were even in town- Mm-hmm... mind you, right?
2:49
And they've only had to pay out twice on this? Does, doesn't that seem a little, a little silly? I mean, a 12 game win streak is, is quite the win streak. I mean, I know it is, but 80 years.
2:58
I mean, Kelly, round ball, round bat, you know? I mean, it's like weird things happen. It's, I don't know why you think [laughs] it's- 80 years though, man. A dozen, dozen wins, you know?
3:06
It's like you don't have five good starters, so you just gotta, you gotta- Be better, Brewers. You gotta roll your, your fourth and fifth guys out. They're gonna win twice. I like the, uh- That's right. Yeah...
3:14
I like the different promotions and how, how some of them are so easy to hit and how this one, I mean, this is- Mm... far more difficult.
3:20
And it is, it's funny that this only comes up then however many a year, every, every so often that you even have a chance to get to that.
3:27
On a more serious note from a betting standpoint in all of this is the Brewers only allow Jacob Mierkowski to go 64 pitches in this game. Yeah. And they had talked about limiting his innings and pitch count.
3:39
I just didn't know it was going to be so incredibly soon. They didn't even let him get out of the third, out of the fourth inning. They pulled him at three and two-thirds.
3:46
He had seven K's in the three-and-two-thirds innings. He had not allowed a run.
3:51
But apparently they have an idea of how much they're gonna let him go now, um, as we head down the stretch, and that is something that if we are bet- as bettors, right?
4:00
Gonna be really tough to bet the, to, to get the win market. That's a, that's avail- a bet available at a bunch of the books out there. Mm-hmm.
4:05
Because if they're going to kinda cap him, it seems, it seems like in this kinda 65, 70 pitch range, you gotta get five innings in order to qualify for a win, you know?
4:15
And so a guy that strikes out as many as he does, you str- you, you rack up pitch counts, right? I mean, that's the other thing about all this, right?
4:22
Whenever you are, when you're getting a lot of K's, you're throwing a lot of pitches. And so, um, just one thing to take away from that, he did [laughs] average 99.5 miles an hour and topped out at 101.9.
4:35
Yeah, that's pretty good. That's pretty good. Now I, I, the, saw, s- I mean, that's, that's pretty big signal coming from that camp, right? Mm. I, I, I...
4:41
From the Brewers that, yeah, we're gonna, we're going to be reining him in and watching these innings going forward.
4:47
'Cause I had to say, I mean, I pulled up that box score and I was like, "Uh-oh, like, did something happen here?" And nope, nope. It's... Here, you, I mean, he was pitching well- Yeah...
4:54
and then he gets, he ain't that early. I mean, that would just be a sign of things to come for the rest of the season. I mean, I guess to credit them, they did tell us they were going to do it, but for me, it didn't...
5:02
I'm, I was more assuming, like, "Hey, we're not gonna let this guy go like eight innings or whatever." You know, it doesn't matter if he's cruising, we're not gonna let him go seven and a third or whatever.
5:10
But I, I just thought, you know, if you're, if you're going like he was yesterday against this Mariners team, I thought that, you know, you let him go. At least finish the inning, but that was not the case there.
5:20
Well, and it becomes interesting- Good enough... 'cause it, it, I mean, if you were in a different place in the standings and stuff too, right? Like this [laughs] would be a whole different...
5:28
I mean, we talk about this with Paul Skeens, right? It's a completely different story, uh, with where they're at in the standings versus where the Brewers are. Yeah, really interesting.
5:35
Yankees beat the Blue Jays five to four. Um, they get a home run in the top of the ninth inning to win that one.
5:41
Max Scherzer gives up four earned in five innings, including home runs to both Cody Bellinger and Jazz Chisholm.
5:48
And with that, Kelly, is kind of the question that really is surrounding this Blue Jays team, and that's why they are already rumored. We saw yesterday just while we were on air that they were interested in Mitch Keller.
5:58
Maybe not after that outing yesterday. [laughs] But, uh, there's... They, I think they understand where they're at. Max Scher- Max Scherzer's just not Max Scherzer anymore, right?
6:06
And like outside of, outside of Gausman You're looking at a rotation that doesn't really have anybody that you feel super, super comfortable with if you have to roll them out.
6:14
And, and so I think they are going to really be in the market for a starter. The only problem is, is there's not a ton of starters available, and the ones that are, are likely to demand a decent haul for them.
6:27
I mean, if you're gonna get a Sandy Alcantara, if you're gonna try to go after those two guys in Arizona and all the different stuff like that, like those teams aren't just gonna give them away.
6:35
And so Blue Jays, that was my only knock on them too, was that starting pitching, and then certainly yesterday you kind of see that as, as, uh, Scherzer goes out and just does not look like the Scherzer of old as he is, you know, 57 years old now.
6:48
Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. Getting up there and it's becomes a little bit more difficult, for sure. Then we get the Dodgers bullpen melting down.
6:54
Like I said yesterday, uh, as, uh, I had the, the under in, um, the, the Pirates game in which they end up scoring 13 runs.
7:01
Would've been the highest scoring game of the day had it not been for this one and the Dodgers, man, looking... They are certainly leaking oil. I'm not, I mean, I don't, we're not worried about the Dodgers.
7:12
Blake Snell is on his way back. There's certain things that you can be looking up for with the Dodgers, but they're definitely leaking oil. Yeah.
7:19
I'm loo- looking forward to discussing this, uh, the best record odds we've got, uh, coming up here next segment, 'cause they are still the short shot there. But, uh, like you said, w- I mean, what is it for you?
7:28
What is the level of concern right now for, with this team? I, I mean, high, not that big a deal, they're gonna get ba- things back on track?
7:35
I mean, the thing is, is they do have just a lot of reinforcements, and then the other thing is we know that they will be certainly active at the trade deadline. And so not so much.
7:46
The only thing is, is if you listen to a lot of the people who are much smarter than I am when it comes to Major League Baseball, they are calling this a trade dudline as opposed to a str- Mm-hmm...
7:54
as a trade deadline, that there's just not going to be, unless someone just comes out of nowhere, there's, there's just not a lot of super high impact players available, right?
8:05
And so out of, outside of Eugenio Suarez, who continues to, to hit home runs for Arizona, there's just not a lot of guys that everybody's jumping up and down about.
8:12
I mean, some of these guys that we knew were going to be available are actually kind of sputtering. So it was like, oh, well maybe they were just way over-performing, and things are coming down the stretch here.
8:22
Ryan O'Hearn being one of those guys for the Orioles who's just hit like crap here for the last month. And so we shall see, but the...
8:29
Let's hope there's a deadline as opposed to a dudline, but, you know- Yeah, seriously... maybe there'll only be a dudline.
8:33
What, what number would you, would I have to give you on the Padres to get involved in the div- in the division? It's getting close. Really? Okay. It's getting close. At, at 12 to one, is Matt Brown in?
8:44
I mean, 12 sounds about, 12 sounds about right. The thing is, is that if you look kind of like man for man as they sit, r- as they're constructed right this second, the Padres aren't that far off from the Dodgers.
8:56
Now, the Dodgers, again, have just a lot of people that are, that are gone and they, they'll be coming back, and we'll see what's going on with all of that.
9:02
I mean, just, just Monday, uh, lose one of their best relievers, and looks like they're gonna have to be looking elsewhere for, for a closer. So there's all kinds of crazy stuff going on out there.
9:12
We thought that this was just gonna be so incredibly easy, but that is not necessarily the case. Now, Commanders are gonna be a team that we're gonna be talking about a ton.
9:21
Uh, certainly we have an NFC East preview that we have coming up a little bit later in the, in the program as well. But Terry McLaurin wanted a new contract. He was very vocal about wanting a new contract.
9:32
While the ownership group has said that they will get him taken care of, Kelly, they have not yet. And with that, he did not show up at training camp. Yeah.
9:40
Uh, something we kind of expected yesterday, but, uh, man, this is, this is a big deal. If all, all the...
9:47
Everything that happened last year with the Commanders and then some of the off-season moves that, you know, I think a lot of people view as additions to this team, I, to me, this is the one thing you cannot screw up, right?
9:56
Is that c- I mean, chemistry already, uh, between Daniels and McLaurin, I mean, you c- you have to have that type of wide receiver out on the field. So I... Commanders, get it together.
10:05
You got to get him to back in camp. I, what some of these teams are doing with star players, I do not get. Raiders agreed to terms with Jamal Adams. By the way, he's still only 29 years old.
10:14
It feels like Jamal Adams has been in the league for about 15 years. Oh, it sure does. Yeah. But, uh, yeah, he's only 29 years old, so he reunites there with Pete Carroll.
10:21
T- uh, Tyron Matthew, better known as the Honey Badger to a lot of people out there, kind of came out of nowhere and retired at 33 years old.
10:29
He actually showed up to training camp and all of that, and I guess maybe he just decided his body couldn't take it anymore.
10:34
Yeah, kind of reworked what, some de- uh, s- uh, a deal a- this off-season as well, so a bit of a surprise there. But I mean, I'm almost surprised we don't see that more often, right?
10:42
You try to go one more year and then show up to camp and it's, "I just can't." Yeah. Just can't do the things you once could do out on a field. It's gotta, it's gotta be a- Or it just wasn't fun to- Yeah...
10:51
you know what I'm saying? Like, to where it, like, used to be fun and you just, it actually started to feel like work and you're like, "You know what? That, that, that lets me know- Yeah... this is probably done for me."
10:59
If you're betting baseball tonight, wind blowing out in Wrigley, so check out, uh, check out the total and that one is on the move. I think it's already up to, to 10 and counting.
11:07
Uh, rain is in the forecast in Atlanta, Colorado, and Tampa, so just keep that in mind if you're betting those games. We know how that goes. You get a delay, the starter has to come out.
11:16
We do much of our, most of our handicapping around who's gonna be the starter for these teams, and so sometimes they don't let these guys come back out of rain delays.
11:23
So at least check in on Atlanta, Colorado, and Tampa before you get those in your account.
11:28
When we come back, as Kelly Bidlin said, the most wins, best record in Major League Baseball when it is all said and done, there's a market for that. We will discuss those odds when we come back here on the Numbers Game.
11:39
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:04
Wednesday Numbers Game, Matt Brown in for Gil Alexander. Kelly Bidlin here with me. We see a bunch of tweets coming through. It is training camp. Everybody is giving some reports on how things are going to go.
12:15
Now this one In, falls in the obvious category, which is the number one overall pick, Cam Ward, will take the majority of first team quarterback reps for the Titans.
12:25
And e- especially [laughs] after Billy Levi's is, like, out for the season, shocker. But, uh, yeah, I guess they need to report that. I mean, it's, it's, it's worth putting out there I suppose.
12:33
No, yeah, sure, sure you do. Sure you do. I, oh, yeah, I forgot about the, uh... I forgot we did have the Brandon Allen, Tim Boyle awkward discussion, uh, yesterday a little bit. [laughs] Yeah, yeah.
12:41
So anyway, n- yeah, he, he will take the- I think I agree with that decision. Yeah, I also as well.
12:46
[laughs] You should probably have the number one overall pick definitely take the majority of first round reps, especially when he's now n- he was a hund- he was 99.8% gonna start anyway, but now that he is 100.1%, like, going to start with you, probably should give him the first team reps- Yeah, probably...
13:02
would, would be my guess. Now, this one- You wanna scare DraftKings real quick? Is- Let's do it. [laughs]... is in fact interesting though.
13:08
Dy- Brian Daboll, and this is actually making the rounds, people are, are retweeting this all over the place, is, uh, saying on that quarterback situation there in New York football Giant territory is, "These guys will be out here competing, but Russ is our starter."
13:22
So he is doubling down that Russell Wilson is going to be their starter when the season gets going. Of course, as we say, Kelly, this is why whenever you tell everyone why this is significant, barring injury.
13:34
Barring injury. Yeah. But, uh, I'm a little surprised this hasn't... We, we're d- just discussing it during the break. We talk about it a lot during the summer, these week one starter odds. DraftKings has it up.
13:44
It is still up. Russell Wilson minus 750 for to be a Giants week one starter after those comments from Brian Daboll this morning.
13:51
Um, well, I'm interested, you and I kinda disagreed a little bit on the break of w- [laughs] Mm... when this gets pulled, if they leave it up, if they're purposely leaving it up.
13:59
Uh, con- uh, considering you're hafting, having to lay such a price, I mean, I, I would think it's gonna get pulled here, uh, at any moment though.
14:06
With those, those stronger comments, I mean, look, it'd be nice to hear the sound- Mm-hmm... but we're just reading quotes. But- Yeah...
14:12
with that, that strong of a comment on Russ is our starter right away in Giants camp, I think that's a pretty big deal. Um, and the, I mean, that, that's week one starter odds.
14:20
Reminder, li- like Matt was getting at, i- injury, which can happen between now, in training camp and in pre-season, so plenty of time, uh, for this to change because of factors.
14:29
Uh, but Daboll giving Russ the nod, I think you should r- if, if you're doing any other Giants betting too, keep that in mind as you go forward here. Well, let's go ahead and get some more Giants news going on here.
14:40
When asked, um, Joe Schoen asked about, um, redshirting Jackson Dart, and he said that he thinks there are some real benefits from sitting and learning, especially with the experienced players and coaches here.
14:54
[clicks tongue] That's, uh, that's interesting. So, you know, there is, again, I know there's a lot of people are saying like, "No, no, no, once they lose four or five games, it's definitely gonna be Dart."
15:06
Maybe it's more that, like- Well-... week 14 bye. Like, they're, they, they have a super late bye. It, m- maybe they just stick with the vets and, I mean, you know,
15:17
they can say anything right now in pre-season and it doesn't really mean a ton. Yeah, right. But I don't know why you would say that, you know?
15:25
Me neither, except, except for, okay, so most teams, this type of situation, yes, I think you could pencil in, okay, let's week four, week five, week six, wait till this becomes a bit of a disaster with whatever vet you're rolling out, and then you're gonna turn the keys over to the kid, right?
15:40
But it was always a little odd, in my opinion at least, the Jameis Winston lover over here, of how you- Yeah... stacked that quarterback r- room and then, uh, went out and ma- a- and went out and drafted him as well.
15:51
And it was kinda like, "Okay, well, who's gonna end up playing here?" Um, 'cause a- I mean, look, hey, say whatever you want, I love Jameis.
15:57
Everybody who watches this show, listens to this show knows that I, I love the guy too much, uh, from a football standpoint.
16:02
But it's a little odd that y- one of those guys is likely not even gonna be suiting up every week of the three quarterbacks, and that was always a little weird to me.
16:08
So I don't know, maybe there is a little bit, uh, there is a little bit more truth to that than, than we think.
16:13
And just doubling down here as this stuff is coming through rapidly, Kelly, on a story that we said yesterday, the- I'm, I'm liking my Giants unders even more though.
16:22
[laughs] The, the beat writer for the Cincinnati Bengals for The Athletic says that, uh,
16:28
that Zac Taylor has actually added to his comments yesterday saying that Joe Burrow, specifically said Joe Burrow is going to play in the pre-season more than ever this year.
16:36
Yeah, you're, you're gonna drive me nuts with this story. So I mean, [laughs] I don't know if that's good or bad for Cincinnati fans.
16:43
You started so slow, and I know a lot of people blamed it on the fact that they didn't play any other starters in pre-season. So, but here's the, here's the deal though.
16:51
If you play the guy, you are taking a risk of injury. I am. I'm... That is a, that is terrifying. Yeah.
16:56
'Cause that, when we were talking about this yesterday, I thought that was the easy way of like, all right, like we're gonna get like our third wi- you know, third and fourth wide receivers more time out there. Mm.
17:05
And like, you know, we're always gonna have to utilize backup linemen, so we're gonna make sure that s- starters get a little few, a few more looks on the O line. But
17:13
I'm not messing around with Joe Burrow out there in the pre-season too much. You know that guy can play. Yeah. There's no concerns about Joe Burrow's playing ability.
17:21
And, ah, the other thing that is just a little odd about it is from a chemistry aspect, it's, it's Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase. Like, he's not having to get- Correct, yes. It's not like you're r- working in new guys...
17:30
additional chemistry with your receiving corps. Oh man. So- This sounds like... This, this, dude, this is, you- I'm already nervous... you've swung too far the other way, Cincinnati. I'm al- You've swung too far...
17:39
I'm already nervous. I know, I'm already nervous for this. Like, I feel like, I'm like, "Oh my gosh, can you believe..." What if we get robbed of Joe Burrow again? No, no, I don't want to. Ugh.
17:47
I don't, I don't want- I really, I don't, I don't even wanna think about that. I don't want to either. I don't wanna get robbed of- Z- Zac, take it easy, man. Just take it easy.
17:51
I don't wanna r- get robbed of Joe Burrow yet again either.
17:53
Guys, we just, we talk about this all the time about the, uh, guides and how much they really do help you out, get ready for betting for the course of the season.
18:01
The College Football Guide drops August the 5th, and this is the one we were talking about in the first segment in which-
18:07
I believe it's basically worth the price of admission just for everything that we get here, and then everything else is just, is gravy because you are getting every single conference broken down, where these guys are going, and what the depth chart looks like.
18:20
'Cause I know you don't know. Everybody... It's impossible to know with what's going on in college football. And of course, out right now as well is our pro betting guide. All 32 teams are previewed.
18:30
We break out MVP, talk about our different bets in that. We preview every single division, what we think is going to happen in those, who's gonna be the wildcard teams, and who is eventually going to win the Super Bowl.
18:40
You can find all of that inside of all of these guides. You gotta become a VSiN Pro subscriber, though. VSiN dot, vsin.com/subscribe. 175 now through the end of the Super Bowl.
18:52
So Kelly, there is a market at DraftKings, and it's going to be who is finishing the Major League Baseball season with the best record?
18:58
The Dodgers are your favorite, and they actually have the fourth easiest strength of schedule remaining in all of baseball. They are even money. I'm gonna hit you with some updated odds- Yeah... actually. Oh.
19:08
This moved after last night. Okay. That loss, we're all the way out to plus 130 on the Dodgers. Oh. Some of these markets- Man... I'm amazed how much one game in baseball can move them. I like this.
19:16
So plus 130 on the Dodgers, Cubs- Ooh, the Cubs moved massive. Yeah. Cubs moved plus 425. Tigers fi- uh, five to one. Phillies plus 650. Astros seven to one. Brewers plus 750. Everybody else 10 to one or longer.
19:29
Wow, so these moved an incredible amount in 24 hours. Yeah, this seems, uh...
19:34
It, every ti- uh, every once in a while, I'll pull up these markets, and, like, the day-to-day movement after one baseball game sure feels like too much.
19:42
So to give you guys an, an idea of just what happens after one day of baseball, uh, Dodgers went from even to plus 130. The Cubs went from plus 550 to plus 425. Yep. The Tigers fall from four to one to five to one.
19:56
The Phillies move from eight to one to plus 650. The Brewers move all the way from plus 650 out to plus 750. The Astros fall from nine to one down to seven to one. That is a lot of movement. That's a lot of movement.
20:11
That's a lot of movement in a day, for sure. Yankees go from 13 to one down to 10 to one in this market.
20:17
Now, if you're wondering what the strength of schedule looks like for these teams moving forward, the Dodgers, fourth easiest strength of schedule remaining. The Tigers, eighth easiest remaining schedule.
20:27
The Cubs, the third easiest remaining schedule. We talked a little bit about this yesterday with Mark Borchardt, who really liked the Cubs as it was anyway. That market has moved.
20:37
It is plus 425, and they have an easy schedule moving forward. So something if you were trying to get involved, just keep that in mind with all of this.
20:45
Now, the Brewers, not only did they, did they lose, Kelly, but you also are dealing with the fact that you have the seventh toughest remaining schedule, actually, with this Brewers team.
20:54
So not only did they lose yesterday, but they also have a tough schedule remaining, something to factor in with that. Middle of the pack for the Phillies as far as difficulty.
21:03
Easiest strength of schedule remaining in baseball for the Houston Astros, and that's a team that we saw a bunch of movement from. Falls from nine to one to seven to one in a day.
21:14
Yeah, it's, uh, pretty amazing when you look at that s- what, at the bottom three? Right? Bottom three in, uh, strength of schedule. Mm-hmm. Toughest strength of schedule. Astros, Cubs, Dodgers. Mm-hmm.
21:23
And they are all gonna be in that race to the end, so yeah, that's, uh, that jumps out for sure. Mets, sixth toughest. We see that their odds go from 12 to 10, though.
21:33
So even though, even though they, uh, have a really tough schedule, in the course of a day they move off of that number. Blue Jays f- fall from 13 to one to 15 to one.
21:41
They're middle of the pack as far as remaining schedule there. Yankees, I just mentioned, uh, e- 11th easiest schedule. And then the Padres are sitting with the fifth easiest remaining schedule.
21:50
Padres went from 50 to one to 15 to one. I... Okay, so it, this... [laughs] I was just gonna bring this up. There are... You just look at the overall standings. Mm-hmm.
21:59
You've got a, a ton of teams, I can't even count here, that are within about four games of each other. Is there a team... I mean, Red Sox are seven games out. Could they do it? 'Cause they're listed at 400 to one. Right.
22:12
I mean, the deal is, of the teams we have listed here, I would obviously just go to the end and go to the Padres because they have the fifth easiest schedule remaining, and I'm getting the best odds for them, you know?
22:25
Like, you just go to the biggest number. Yeah. This moved again. It, it, it moved again? S- yeah. [laughs] Yeah, it did. What are they now? They're, they're s- 60. They're back to 60? They're 60. We'll, we'll have to...
22:39
We'll, we'll get some clarification on all of- I think we have a graphics screw-up on the Padres... maybe. So hey. [laughs] We'll talk to Will Hill, Major League Baseball when we come back.
22:45
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Numbers game here on VSiN.
23:02
Matt Brown, Kelly Fidlin on the desk for Gil as he gets his well-deserved vacation. Yeah. He'll be back in next week. Yeah. Be back here on Monday. I don't even know where he's at right now.
23:14
Uh, well, well- Sitting on a beach somewhere. Well, no, we decided that he was in, he was waiting on the free hamburgers [laughs] in Milwaukee. Oh, yeah. [laughs] Right. Sorry.
23:21
Yeah, he's waiting- He was t- been tailgating there all week. Yeah, yeah. That's right. He's, he's waiting on the free hamburgers in Milwaukee.
23:25
The Brewers let him down, and then now he's, he's, h- uh, his next adventure begins now. You, you and I know Gil Alexander way too well. Yeah. Uh, that is obviously what he's doing. Yeah, he's onto his next adventure.
23:34
Uh, joining us here on the program, Will Hill. You can find him @NotTheWillHill over on the Twitter machine as well, host of Shoulda Bet More podcast. Will, how you doing, buddy? Boys, what's going on?
23:45
Another week or so till football. We are, uh, officially in the dog days, but we're getting there, getting there. We got baseball every night, some football around the corner here, so it's a nice time of year.
23:54
The quiet before the storm, I would say. We have day games galore in Major League Baseball today. Yeah. And you are going to look at the very first one. First pitch coming about noon-oh-five over there on the East Coast.
24:06
This is the Reds and the Nats. Nick Lodolo for the Reds, Michael Sorocco there for the Nationals. Reds minus 125-ish on the road as favorites.
24:15
You can get a little bit over, uh, even money there on the Nats at home as dogs. Eight and a half is our total. How you looking to play this one? Yeah, it's the first game, so you, you, uh, you have to bet it.
24:25
You're obligated to bet this game here, the, uh, the Reds and the Nationals. Got a little bit of connection issue there with Will. We'll get him back on and, uh, get the explanation there in that game.
24:33
Again, that one, Kelly, coming in about an hour and a half, an interesting pitching match up with Lodolo and Soroka. You don't really hear a ton about Mike Soroka.
24:43
He plays for the Nats, and since he moved on from the Braves and he was gone for a while with injury, he's actually been pretty good so far this year.
24:50
So I think, uh, think Will's gonna be looking at, uh, those guys continuing on with the success that they've had, uh, throughout the course of the season so far. I can get to a bet that I have in my account.
25:00
I've told Will to stop doing, uh, s- uh, trying to do these guest spots underwater. It's really tough, you know? It, it was, you know, it was- He's trying to get in his morning swim- It, it-... and be on the phone.
25:09
It, it's- It's just tough to do both at the same time... he, he's tr- listen, the, uh, the technology these days in which you can just, like, be underwater and your earphones still work- [laughs]...
25:15
and you've got the microphones and all of that, but it's- It's cool, but- It is, it is cool, but not optimal- Not optimal... for what we're, what we're trying to, to do here. Red Sox and the Phillies a little bit later.
25:24
I'm gonna play the over in that one. Wind is blowing out there in Philadelphia, and that actually, that ballpark actually does play to the wind pretty good.
25:32
Giolito surface stats look a lot better than his expecteds do whenever you really dig into what should have happened to him.
25:39
Now, regression does not always happen immediately, so it doesn't mean it's gonna happen tonight, but have to play the numbers that I see right there. Luzardo has been pummeled in two of his last three starts.
25:51
Um, so I- I'm going for a team in the Red Sox that has the highest weighted on base in baseball over the last three weeks to continue to pummel this guy who has struggled over the last month of the season.
26:02
Phillies, by the way, not so bad themselves. 10th over the last three weeks in weighted on base average over there in baseball. So again, the over eight and a half for me, Red Sox and the Phillies.
26:12
Place a little bit of weather in that. We're gonna beat up on these pitchers a little bit. Two lineups that have been knocking the ball all over the yard, so that's where we're going with that one, buddy. Okay.
26:21
I like that. Yeah, like you said, there is a lot of baseball here early, right? Mm. Uh, we've got, like you said, R- Reds and Nationals early. Padres and Do- uh, or Padres [laughs] Dodgers, Padres and Marlins early.
26:33
And, and the reason that one's actually important is not necessarily so much for the game itself, but to see what Sandy Alcantara looks like because I bet you- Who?...
26:40
there are a lot of teams that are going to be very, very, very interested in this game strictly because of how he might look. He's the biggest name that is rumored out there to be moved,
26:54
but he's been bad this year, Kelly. And, like, and so it's... Is there any redeeming quality? Is, does someone g- 'cause here's the deal, the Marlins are not going to give him up for free.
27:03
So you're basically buying, you're paying a high price for a guy who is at his lowest. [laughs] So it's like, you know, but maybe they see something in the start.
27:13
Maybe something works out in this start with, with Sandy Alcantara. But yeah, there's gonna be a lot of interested parties there in that Padres-Marlins game.
27:20
And again, that first pitch comes to you in about an hour and a half as well, uh, down there in Miami. Yeah, that and s- several other here, uh, others here today. Well, we're working on Will.
27:29
You want to, uh, talk some NFC South quick? Yeah. Well, you, you don't, you, you don't, uh, you... Is that your way of saying, like, "I don't really, I don't really dig the NFC South all that much"?
27:38
Is that what you're- Uh, i-e- I didn't say that. I'm just saying, uh, [laughs] the time we have remaining is plenty enough time to talk about it.
27:45
[laughs] Listen, I, I don't, I don't hate the NF- uh, I, I don't really hate the NFC South. I mean, you know- O- okay, you got bets? But, uh, okay. We know the Bucs are the favorites in that one.
27:54
They had to replace Liam Cohen, as everybody knows. He left for Jacksonville. It's gonna be John Gruszynski who is taking over at offensive coordinator for them. He's actually been with the team.
28:03
He was the team, team's passing coordinator last season, so he is familiar with this team and the skill players that go along with, with Tampa in that one.
28:11
One of the news, one of the news items that we got over the last couple weeks is Tristan Wirfs is going to miss the start of the season for this team.
28:17
That is obviously massive considering he is one of the best offensive linemen in all of football.
28:23
Chris Godwin, of course, that gruesome injury last year for this team, so they went out and drafted Emeka Egbuka to come in and make that wide receiver room a little younger.
28:30
As we know, Mike Evans continues to defy Father Time. It's basically him and, him and Derrick Henry are the, are the two dudes that are just, like, defying Father Time out there when it comes down to it, but- Yeah.
28:40
Mike Evans is almost more impressive to me though. Like, there, there's some acrobatics still there.
28:45
Well- Derrick Henry's just this massive human being that just- Well, usually it's because wide receivers fall off a cliff. Right.
28:51
It's like Julio Jones was the greatest wide receiver we've ever seen, and then was, like, a guy that you feel like you would just... You, you maybe would pick third on your rec league team- Right. Yeah [laughs]...
29:00
or something. You know? Like, it'd just be like, "Eh, no, I'll take Bob," and then, like, whatever. It, yeah, so just, it, they fall off rapidly, but that has not been the case obviously for, for Mike Evans.
29:09
But E- Emeka Egbuka comes in. He'll make that wide receiver room a little bit younger as they transition trying to get Chris Godwin back as well. They did lose their center in Robert Hainsey, Hainsey.
29:18
Uh, linebacker KJ Britt is gone. Safety Mike Edwards is gone. Safety Jordan Whitehead. These are all guys that were starters for this team. They are all gone now for this group.
29:28
I guess the bonus here in this, Kelly, is you are playing in one of the, if not the weakest divisions in all of football, so that does at least give you a little bit of, of hope that even with the losses and even with Godwin maybe needing a little time to get back in the groove and losing Liam Cohen and all of that, you're like, "Well, yeah, but it's, it's the Panthers and it's the Saints and, you know, maybe the Falcons."
29:53
But I don't, I don't know if they're too worried about the Falcons either. Yeah, I, I, I don't think they are. This is, this is not a team that I've bet on yet, uh, bet on to win the division. I don't think I will, Matt.
30:03
I, I think that, look, the Falcons are not- Me neither 'cause I think the Falcons aren't that far off. That's what I was just kinda... Like, I don't think they're that far away. Yeah.
30:11
But man, the Bucs made me look stupid last year when I had a Falcons bet, uh, uh, in this division, and I don't really know y- I mean, you just went through two- We had no idea to know that Kirk Cousins was completely washed though.
30:22
So I mean, I defend- Well, of course. Yeah... 'cause I had that bet as well. Yeah, yeah. And like, I actually defend that bet with
30:28
That was one of the craziest falls from grace I've ever seen Yeah, I mean, no, nobody could have told us he was gonna, it was gonna go that bad I mean, in, in the course of one season, he just became inept at playing the quarterback position.
30:38
Now, Penix, I, I think there's upside. Uh, no, I think there is. Um, I also don't know that I see really much of a reason to think that the Buccaneers are gonna fall off a cliff though either. I, I, especially that...
30:50
I mean, we had- we haven't talked about the other two teams. I'm not the... I, I think the Saints are the worst team in football. I think the Saints are the worst team in the NFL. And the Panthers,
30:59
I, I don't know how you feel about, Matt, but I am, I'm not there yet on, on, on exactly what we saw out of Bryce Young last year, him gonna be, going to be able to repeat all, uh, repeat that or grow, uh, on what he put up l- last year for numbers wise and for the Panthers to really threaten in this division.
31:15
I know that is a popular take this off-season. I'm not there on that Carolina team. Uh, if anything, it would be an under on their win total. So we're really talking about a two-team race in this division to me.
31:27
Um, and I, I, I just don't know with what the Bucs continue to do and Baker Mayfield continuing to impress, I, I'm not b- I wouldn't be backing away from that team winning this team, this- I don't-... this thing again...
31:36
love any of these lineups, and so, like, I don't... The only team I'm completely writing off is the Saints. Like, I think that there is...
31:43
I think the, I think the Panthers could be interesting if what we saw from Bryce Young at the end of the season is for real. So he actually looked like a real NFL quarterback after he got benched- Mm-hmm...
31:52
and then came back from getting benched. Over the final 10 weeks of the season, 15 touchdowns to six interceptions. And if you like pro football focus advanced stats like I do,
32:02
Kelly does as well, but they have a big-time throw stat- Yeah... you know, where it's like you're throwing into tight windows- Right... and whatever else like that. I'm about to blow y'all's mind out there.
32:11
You're driving. Prepare. Don't run off the road. Final 10 weeks of the season, Bryce Young led the NFL in big-time throw percentage. Led the NFL in big-time throw percentage in the- But he got no wide receiver.
32:25
He doesn't have any wide receivers that can create any separation or anything... in, in the last 10 weeks of the season. I'm just saying, listen. [laughs] That's a, that is- Imagine... that's a thing.
32:32
Like, that's a thing for sure. And so if what we saw wasn't just completely fool's gold- Sure... like, they could be interesting. The roster doesn't completely suck. So if you had to. If you had to- Mm-hmm...
32:44
you had a, you, you always play in this game. Mm-hmm. So if you had 100 free, 100 free Kelly dollars. Yeah. You had to play that win total on the Panthers. You're going over or you're going under? I would play over.
32:53
I think that Bry- I was a little higher on Bryce Young than most people were when they were just completely trashing him. You know, we say this all the time, Kelly.
33:02
We've, we've forgotten what it takes to play quarterback in the NFL. Like, it, it got ruined for us somewhere along the way. We'll continue the discussion here with this and move over into the West as well.
33:12
It is a numbers game here on VSiN.
33:13
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:33
A numbers game here on VSiN, the sports betting network. Matt Brown in for Gil. Kelly Fidlin here on the desk with me as the, uh, tweets again are, are coming through, and s- most of them are, are positive.
33:46
Most of them are, "You know, the person looks amazing," instead of this one, which is, "Jackson Dart's first pass in 11 on 11 drills is a pick six." [laughs] So there's, there's that.
33:56
Well- His first pass in 11 on 11 drills, pick six. At least we, uh, Giants fan office is like, "At least we got out that red shirt line, uh, early."
34:03
And then one thing we'll talk about a little bit later, 'cause you and I were actually having this discussion off air as to whether Deion Sanders helps or hurts as him being your father.
34:10
Oh, I meant to bring that up to you. Yeah. As him bring- being your father. He's at Bucs camp. Yep. And, uh, because his son, Shilo, is just trying to make the team. Yep.
34:19
And so- Just saw him, uh, chatting up Bulls there. Yep... so yeah, so Deion's just looming as his kid tries to make the team. It's always important to get down in Florida, get some recruiting in, you know?
34:29
[laughs] Yeah, that's what he's doing for sure. Just, just not, not nearly as much anymore. Yeah. But yeah. But it's one of those things like he's like...
34:35
You and I, you and I are wondering, is, is this a, is this a good thing or a bad thing to have Deion as your dad? We'll discuss maybe a little bit later. But we do have an actual connection. He got out of the pool.
34:44
He decided to dry off. Yeah. And, uh, we're gonna go with a, with a dry Mike. Even put on a shirt. Yeah, good stuff here. Will Hill joining us back on the program. Will, how you doing, buddy? Boys, what's going on?
34:53
Oh, look at that. Hey. Look at that. Crystal clear. [laughs] Can hear every single thing- Ready to go... that he's saying right there.
34:58
So just, uh, to recap everyone, or if you are just joining us, we'll just start from the beginning. There are a ton of day games in baseball today. The very first one, Will is gonna have some action in.
35:08
That's the Reds at the Nationals, Nick Lodolo and Michael Soroka. This is minus 125 Reds, plus 104-ish on the Nationals. Eight and a half is our total. How are you looking to play this one, Will?
35:21
Yeah, I'm gonna go first five under four and a half. You have to lay a little juice, $1.20, $1.25 at DraftKings, in that range, but I'm okay with it. I think that four and a half in the first five is a key number.
35:31
You wanna win on four. So many times it's three to one or two to two. And, uh, Lodolo, much better away from home, where he's got a 2.5 ERA on the road.
35:40
And Soroka's an interesting trade candidate guy, 'cause you look at the surface stats, you think, "Man, he's got an ERA over five." He hasn't pitched well, but the, uh, the advanced stuff is much more favorable.
35:49
Uh, a three or so expected ERA, two runs lower, 220, uh, expected batting average against. Uh, he really... He, he's, his struggles come second, third time through the lineup.
35:59
The first time or two through the lineup, he's been okay. It's that third time that gets him. So he's an interesting trade candidate guy.
36:04
I would imagine he gets moved here in the next, uh, week or so, but, uh, I'll, I'll go under four and a half, first five.
36:10
Thought about going under two and a half in the first three because of Soroka's, you know, struggles, uh, second, third time through the lineup. But I'll go under four and a half.
36:16
I wanna win on that four, so, uh, I am gonna go under here with a, a matinee game under first five. Yeah, this is, uh... Lodolo is one of those guys that I really like watching him pitch when he's on.
36:28
And, uh, last five starts, I mean, you're looking at a, at a, you know, surface stat of t- a 220 ERA, but a.333 xFIP, you know,.347 xERA.
36:35
The guy's been really, really good, so I definitely, definitely like that play with Lodolo there. Let's head to the team that, uh, man...
36:43
little bit of struggles of late here for Detroit after they just set the world on fire in the first half. You're gonna come back on them, though? Yes, they have struggled, but, uh, I like this pitching match up.
36:56
Melton going for the Tigers, making his debut. I think it's just a spot start.
36:59
Uh, Tigers have, like, a stretch here of 13 straight games, uh, in, in 13 days after the All-Star break, so just trying to give their pitchers a breather. But he has got really good stuff.
37:08
Uh, you look in the minors, 75 innings, 101 strikeouts. Uh, shocker, he throws 100 miles an hour. Who doesn't throw 100 miles an hour these days? They, they all seem to.
37:16
[laughs] But, uh, you line him up against Falter, and Falter's been respectable. He's been competent, but he, he is not gonna get you to swing and miss. He's not gonna blow you away. His stuff is very mediocre.
37:27
So I like the pitching match up here with the Tigers. Figure the Tigers, uh, maybe this is a time to jump back on them. You know, it's always a dangerous thought exercise or an interesting thought exercise.
37:37
A really good team that's playing poorly and vice versa, when do you jump on, when do you jump off? Mm-hmm. Maybe this is a good time to jump back on the Tigers.
37:43
I think the price is reasonable, so I will take the Tigers here on the money line. Anybody that wants to tail Will there in that one, that is one of the early games as well, so do not dilly-dally around for that one.
37:54
This one you can dilly-dally around. A little bit later in the afternoon, Baltimore Orioles on the road at the Cleveland Guardians. This is Zach Eflin versus Slade Cecconi. Cecconi, Kelly, you like that?
38:04
Yeah, I like him. I do like that. Ce- Cecconi. Yeah. I don't know if that's how you say it or not. It could be Cecconi, but I- I like, I like to think that he's Italian. Probably. I like to think that he's Italian.
38:12
Um, this is Guardians minus 131 at home as favorites, plus 108-ish if you're looking at DraftKings numbers out there for the Orioles on the road as dogs. Eight and a half is our total here in this one.
38:26
Will, what you looking at? Yeah, I think you nailed the pronunciation, by the way. If you were a, a Giants backup quarterback, this guy would be like a celebrity to you. [laughs] A hero already, yeah.
38:35
[laughs] I just picked the wrong sport. Uh, I like Cleveland here. They're starting to swing the bats better. Eflin, it's a guy I've liked to back in the past, control specialist, but he has gotten hammered this year.
38:44
ERA close to six. He's given up 16 homers in 60 or so innings. He has not been able to keep the ball in the ballpark.
38:50
So I got a hot lineup in Balti- in Cleveland, uh, a Baltimore team that's fading, so I'm okay with Cleveland on the money line. And, uh, I'll throw in an extra play.
38:58
I've been keeping an eye on these, uh, exact plate ex- uh, uh, exact plate appearance result. You can play these at DraftKings. Mm. I think FanDuel has them as well.
39:05
I, I think Caesars is, does have them from what I remember from when I was in Vegas. Uh, Jose Ramirez, plus 1,100 to walk in his first at-bat. Now, Eflin does not walk a lot of guys, but, uh, Ramirez is so red hot.
39:17
The rest of the lineup there is a drop-off. To me, like, last night he comes up, two out, nobody on. I'm thinking, "You know what? Pr- they should probably walk them, probably walk him, pitch around him."
39:25
They pitched to him. It's a home run. Uh, hit a home run in the first inning on Monday night. At, at some point you just gotta let somebody else beat you.
39:31
So if he comes up, man on second, one out, maybe you walk him intentionally. If he comes up two out, nobody on, maybe you just pitch around him. Uh, again, I've been tracking this.
39:39
I know Friday night and Saturday night, his first at-bats, he did walk and cash these. I gave it out plus 800 on a, on Saturday. It got home.
39:45
So to me, I, I, I know Eflin's, again, a good control guy, but plus 1,100 with how hot Ramirez has been at the plate, I think there's a decent chance they either intentionally walk him or pitch around him.
39:55
I'll take a shot at the 11 to 1. It's under, uh, exact plate appearance at DraftKings. Talking to our very own Will Hill, also host of Should've Bet More podcast, and Not The Will Hill over there on the Twitter machine.
40:06
Will, we just talked about this Astros team. If you look at the rest of the season, have the easiest remaining schedule of any Major League Baseball team. They will go at about 3:40 Eastern this afternoon.
40:16
Brandon Walter on the hill for them. We got Brandon Pfaadt, Battle of the Brandons down there in Arizona. Brandon Pfaadt going for the, uh, the Diamondbacks.
40:25
This is Diamondbacks about minus 125, uh, at home, about plus 105-ish on the road for the Astros. Eight and a half our total. Who you backing? Yeah, a lot of Brandons. I didn't even pick up on it.
40:37
[laughs] That was a good job by you. Can we get another Brandon to throw out the first pitch? Yeah, exactly. Brandon, Brandon Bass maybe- Let's do it... the former NBA player.
40:43
[laughs] I don't know what other NBA or what, what other Brandons we got. I like Houston. I know they have a laundry list of injuries, but doesn't seem to matter. This kid Matthews has come up.
40:52
He's th- hit three homers in the last couple games. Uh, they're missing Paredes. They're missing Alvarez. They're missing, uh, Pena. The list goes on. It just, it doesn't seem to matter. They seem to find a way to win.
41:02
It's a really good organization. I know they got a lot of crap for the buzzers and the trash cans, and rightfully so, but man, they're just, uh, they're a good team. They really are. It's a good organization.
41:11
Pfa- Pfaadt has been good his last couple starts, but he's had a rough season. Uh, I think Walter's pretty good. Also saw three and a half.
41:18
There's some juice on the three and a half team total for the Astros, but man, three and a half, uh, Arizona's got a, a lousy bullpen. Pfa- Pfaadt has not been good this year.
41:26
You know, y- you're gonna get your nine at-bats 'cause you're the road team.
41:29
So I wouldn't mind laying the juice with the over three and a half for the team total, and I'll just, I'll take the plus money here on the Astros. I'll just, I, I'll pick them to keep winning.
41:36
Again, if it's, uh, tied after five or six and you go into the bullpens, that's advantage Houston, because Arizona's bullpen's been a disaster.
41:43
Uh, Houston came back rowdy again last night, so I'll take Houston here plus money. Yeah, I like me some Brandon Walter as well. I like that people look at those surface stats and don't look at the deep stuff.
41:50
I mean, ERA of 4.97 over the last five, but a 2.35 XERA over the last five. So Kelly, he's supposed to be better than what has happened out there on the field. Oh, that's how that works. Yeah. Got it. Okay, great.
42:01
Expected. Expected. Yes. Yeah. Yes, expected. Yeah. See if it actually happens. Yeah, yeah. Uh, Will, switching to some football, I got one, one sentence text from you. High on Dallas, low on New England.
42:10
Explain yourself, sir. There you go. I think that says it all. I'm, I'll start with Dallas.
42:16
I, I think, look, for, for the circus they are, and it is a circus, you got the owner taking shots at Parsons and Dak, which was just bizarre, and it's just, it, it, it's ridiculous at this point.
42:25
Uh, nobody liked the coaching hire, which I understand. Uh, Dak is 76 and 46 career as a starter. He's a really good player at the most important position.
42:32
And if you're just looking quarterback, playmaker, uh, def- defensive player, who's got, like, the best trio? It's hard to do better than Dak, Lamb, and Parsons.
42:42
And I think Pickens is gonna come in, uh, used to a run-heavy scheme. He's gonna come in a more pass-friendly offense, the best quarterback he's ever played for. Uh, he, he's got Lamb to take the attention away.
42:52
I think Pickens is in for a big year, playing for a contract on his best behavior. Uh, I think they're undervalued at seven and a half. I think they're undervalued plus 190 to make the playoffs.
43:00
Schedule's not really easy, but they do get the Giants twice, the Jets, the Panthers, the Raiders. I wouldn't be shocked if they bounce back and win their, you know, nine, 10 games.
43:08
Remember, before last year, uh, 11 and 5, 12 and 5, 12 and 5. This was a really good team. And just quickly on the Patriots, I'm not a believer in McDaniels. I'm not a believer.
43:17
They don't really have any blue-chip talent on offense. And look, I like Vrabel. I think he's a good coach. I think it's a solid hire. But I think we forget, uh, okay, he pulled off a couple upsets the 2019 playoffs.
43:28
Since then, one and done in the playoffs '20 and '21. 2022 they fell apart. They lost their seven, last seven games, missed the playoffs after starting 7-3. And then '23 they missed the playoffs.
43:37
I think it's a little bit, uh, just misguided how everybody loves Vrabel here. So I think New England might be a year away. I like their under.
43:45
Find him right here on VSiN Shoulda Bet More podcast @NotTheWillHill over on the Twitter machine as well. Will, appreciate the time, man. All right, appreciate it, guys. Thanks for having me.
43:55
Yeah, wa- watch out walking around there in New England, man. Man. Ooh. Yeah. What's going on there? Hour number two, we'll come back, we going country clubbing. Let's go. [upbeat music]
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