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Jul 24, 2026
A Numbers Game | July 24, 2026 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | July 24, 2026 | Hour 1
00:00
46:20
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] This is VSiN, the sports betting network. The numbers tell the story, they always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:18
Good Friday morning to you. It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, Sirius XM channel 158. So many options. We just require that you pick one.
0:31
We don't require it, we're grateful that you do. It's Gil Alexander in San Francisco. Kelly Bidlin back in Las Vegas. What up? Hey, yo. Good morning. How we doing? Doing pretty good, man. Yeah. Doing all right. You know?
0:43
Yeah. Uh, we got some tennis going on this morning, as always, sweating through that. Uh, on the show today, Jensen Lewis kind enough to, uh, hang out.
0:51
Man does by-the-books for th- what is it, three hours every morning, and then we have the audacity to ask him to hang around for another 15 minutes and join us. That's right. But he's kind enough to join us.
1:01
So we look forward to his, uh, plays in baseball today, maybe some, uh, trade deadline thoughts. Chris Felica, college football futures. Let's go.
1:10
His bread and butter, besides horse racing of course, uh, we'll talk college football with The Bear, as he is known. Uh, we've done NFC divisions all week. Kelly, why stop now?
1:20
Let's wrap it up with the NFC West, largely considered the best division in football, I guess, except for the Cardinals, so maybe not, yeah? Yeah. Kind of.
1:28
Well, that's where I think you gotta go NFC West or NFC North, right? Like, do you go the top to bottom NFC North or NFC West, top-heavy? Yeah.
1:36
Which, uh, th- three great teams, or two great ones, one very good one, and then the Cardinals. Uh, we'll get into all that. Tyler Shoemaker, both college football futures and WNBA futures.
1:47
Looking forward to that, 'cause those are his two bread-and-butter sports, uh, with the T-Shoo Index, so we will talk to him about that.
1:53
And then a little later on, Chris Gordy is gonna join us, um, breaking down the SEC. Looking forward to this, 'cause it- we just had SEC Media Day. Not cur- not sure if anything developed out of that.
2:05
But the SEC's a pretty interesting discussion, because you have a, you have a situation where you're, you're going to nine conference games this year, Kelly. Mm-hmm.
2:15
And so, you will most likely, right, you will most likely end up with a situation where, you know, they're all playing each other one more time than they have in the past.
2:27
And, you know, if you look at projections, like Bill Connelly, our buddy Bill Connelly, who's like the, uh, the Aaron Shots of college football with SP+.
2:34
Matter of fact, his background is at Football Outsiders with, with Aaron before he broke off to ESPN and started doing SP+. He did SP+ before he got to ESPN.
2:43
But his projected win total, his highest projected win total in the SEC is, like, I think 9.8 wins. So what I'm getting to- Hmm... is, and this'll be a question I'll ask of, uh, Chris Gordy later, is
2:56
adding the extra conference game, sure, maybe Georgia exceeds that, right? Maybe, maybe, maybe even another, maybe a Texas does, but maybe not.
3:07
What happens, I guess, when the committee has to evaluate all these SEC teams? Will it...
3:12
Sure, they'll get to a lot of bowl games, but what, w- will it impact one or, or two or three of them when it comes to the actual playoffs themselves? Yeah, I'm also- It'll be interesting.
3:22
Yeah, that, that, very interesting. I'm also kind of obsessed with the Arch Manning conversation at this point, Gil.
3:27
I, I mean, like, I feel like I've heard i, in this off-season that, like, Arch Manning is still live to go, like, first overall in next year's draft, and that he's also could be out of the first round.
3:36
So I'm really [laughs] interested to see how that develops this season. Arch Manning, I, you know, it's funny because I guess the, the takeaway if you ask the average person, like if I ask my buddy Tommy in DC- Mm...
3:47
I go, "Hey, what do you think about Arch Manning?" He's like, "Ah, really hasn't lived up to the hype." Right? That would probably be his, that would probably be his knee-jerk reaction. Arch Manning, best
3:56
QBR in college football from November on- Mm-hmm... last year, but also, like, when he rolls out, the most inaccurate quarterback you'll ever see. Yeah. But- So, [laughs] which is just really weird, right?
4:10
I, it's, and also, like, how mu- You- No, it is. It absolutely is, and I can't, I can't...
4:14
I'm really looking forward to this, this college football season, a couple of these top quarterbacks to see how they progress through the season, right?
4:21
And then we always gotta play the game at the end, Gil, how much does the Manning name matter, right? And I think it's gonna matter to some NFL teams. Yeah. Um, can't, can't argue with the pedigree, that's for sure.
4:32
The greatest pedigree there is with, uh, father, or I should say with grandfather, with father, with uncle. Mm-hmm. Uh, or I should say with grandfather and two uncles, I should say. Uh, 'cause that's Cooper's, uh, son.
4:45
Okay. Uh- Hey, Cooper played high school ball, right? And was it- Cooper played some high school ball... wide receiver or something? Yeah. That's right. Um, okay, tennis.
4:52
Uh, there were five plays for subscribers, vsin.com/picks. One of 'em is a cancellation. Our girl, uh, Oleinikova, she did not, uh, she did not make it for her match. So that one is nullified.
5:06
But we, like yesterday, couldn't hit the two biggest dogs on the board. So both, uh, Lalana Taraudi, you know Lalana Taraudi, Kelly. Oh, yeah, sure.
5:16
And, uh, and Alina Haraeva, uh, plus 171 dogs, plus 151 dogs, they both lost to start, uh, the overnight. So we're left with two. Maya Sharief, if you remember, won a tournament last year.
5:30
She beat Paula Badosa in the final, but the way that the final went was it was 6-4 for love.
5:36
We were on Sharief as a big dog, and then Badosa took her toys and went home, because God forbid she lets us have a win against her. Mm-hmm, mm-hmm. So they're facing each other now the next week.
5:44
This is, I believe, the quarterfinals of a tournament in, uh, Hamburg, Germany. And, uh, we're going to, we're, we're in a third set.
5:52
Our girl, Maya Sharief, who we backed again, is up a break early in the third set, 2-1. She's a plus 133 dog, so hopefully, hopefully we get that one home.
6:04
And then the only one remaining, for those who are interested in playing later on, a little pre-flop- Is on the men's side, Roman Andres Buruchaga once again. Buruchaga. I- Buruchaga. Buruchaga.
6:17
I have probably- I can't fight this feeling deep in... Okay, sorry. [laughs] No, that's all right. You can get- [laughs] Please, continue. I love thinking about Buruchaga again. Okay. It's fantastic.
6:27
I'm just glad I got to do that one more time. Well, he's- I've probably backed this dude, like, five times in the last two weeks. Yes. I think we're like, what? Yeah, I think that's what we're up to. Three and one. Yeah.
6:35
And he's always a dog, right? He's a, he's a underdog every single time.
6:39
It's one of these rear- really interesting situations where a dude with spectacular numbers on a surface, his on clay, keeps getting, in my opinion, it's been corroborated by the results so far, keeps getting no love in the actual betting market.
6:54
So we'll do it again. Buruchaga at plus 117 is the play a little later on. That's not for a couple hours. How's the, uh, how's the golf looking, sir, the 3M Open? Fantastic. Uh, let's see. We've got Mr.
7:07
Ben Coles out there right now, 12 under par, three-shot lead over one Gary Woodland at the 3M Open second round action. Ben Coles through nine.
7:16
I had, uh, 66 to 1 on him to be first round leader yesterday, Gil, so that was a nice little way to get this, uh- Did you?... tournament started. Yeah. Come on.
7:22
Continue the rollercoaster ride of golf over the past four weeks, man. It has been wild. It has been, it has been- Well done... very profitable, but man, it has, it has been wild.
7:31
Man, reminder, Ben Coles, the, the same guy who helped me get Chris Gotterup across the finish line, uh, four tournaments ago, the John Deere Classic, they were tied with Ben Coles on the 18th, and he just put it in the water, basically to, just to give Gotterup the win.
7:48
Uh, so yeah, I, the, uh, m- remember I owe you a fruit basket, Gil Alexander. I owe Ben Coles a big-time fruit basket already, and hopefully he just keeps this up and goes wire to wire this weekend. That would be great.
7:59
What do you owe me the fruit basket for? No, no, I mean, I, I owe Ben Coles the fruit basket, 'cause he's the- Oh...
8:05
first round leader yesterday, and then he was the, the one guy in Chris Gotterup's way four weeks ago when I cashed on him, and he hit in the water and got out of the way. Oh, okay. I heard that wrong. My apologies.
8:17
All right, but congratulations on the 66 to 1. You're being kind of nonchalant about that. Well done. Yeah, it was nice. It was nice. Thanks, man. [laughs] So that, it was a nice little- Very nice...
8:24
sweat yesterday afternoon down the stretch. Uh, and okay, and then of course, there's the Red Sox. The Red Sox resume their march on July tonight, a three-game set at home at Fenway against the Toronto Blue Jays.
8:37
Um, can't wait for this. Didn't, uh, the scoreboard, though. You know, these teams are, these teams are three back of the, of the Red Sox. The Red Sox have eight to play. Uh, they're 15 and 2.
8:51
The Tigers and Brewers are both three wins back, 12 and 5, 12 and 7 now, after the Tigers' win over the Royals yesterday. Another one-run win or a one-run rin- one-run win, not another.
9:01
They're only 2-1 this, this month in one-run wins. But the Tigers and Brewers only have seven games left. Uh, then you see the Orioles, Diamondbacks, and Braves.
9:10
They might have the Diamondbacks showing up, uh, in the- Yeah, wow... on the graphic now. Um, but again, it's all the Red Sox have to do is go five and three, and they're guaranteed victory.
9:22
Everybody else in that scenario assumes that they go undefeated, so really, it's probably they only have to go four and four or three and five. But things can happen.
9:32
We don't want to count our, uh, what's the old, count chickens before they're hatched. Uh, just gotta make it happen. Magic number is five for our Boston Red Sox, Kelly, our Boston Red Sox. There we go, man. Let's go.
9:44
You're, you're gonna be... I hope they make this easy on you, and this isn't a sweat the entire next week. This might be the longest week of your life.
9:52
Well, well, I mean, you know, the other, the other way to look at it is, 'cause we have our little silly little bet, right? It's not really silly, it's not really little.
9:58
But the Red Sox, you know, if you go back into the annals of baseball history, and I love doing that, you know I do, the greatest... You, you ever think about what, what's the greatest calendar month record?
10:10
'Cause we just talked about, in the time period that we've been making- Oh, yeah... these bets- Great call...
10:14
two and a half years, that the Marlins last month was the best record of all of those 15 months of the two years before this and the first three of, of 2026.
10:24
The Marlins, I think, what they were, 20 and 6 in the end, something like that? Can't remember. I think 20 and 6. So go back.
10:30
The best, the, the most wins ever in a month, and this goes back to when they were playing apparently double headers a lot during, [laughs] during baseball. You have to go back to 1916.
10:41
You remember the New York Giants of 1916, the New York baseball Giants. They were 29 and 5, but that's a different era of baseball. Yeah. They played 34 games for God sakes. That, that didn't count, before Prohibition.
10:53
Actually, they played 36. Somehow two were not recorded as a win or a loss. I don't, I, I have no idea what that's about.
10:58
But if we're looking for what's the greatest winning percentage of any month in any, I- in baseball history, it is the Cubs of 1906.
11:08
So two years before they won that World Series that we always hearken back to before they won it again in 2016, right? The Cubs of 1906 in August went 26 and 3, went 26 and 3.
11:23
I bring that up only to say that while we're concentrating on our bet, that if the
11:29
Red Sox somehow win their last eight games, these Red Sox will have the greatest month winning percentage-wise in the history of Major League Baseball. Let's go. Just saying. Only 120 years back.
11:44
Hey, stranger things have happened, but just letting you know how good this has been at 15 and 2. We'll come back, Jensen Lewis on Major League Baseball, his thoughts on the trade deadline, all his plays today.
11:54
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13:15
Gil Alexander in San Francisco, Kelly Biln in Las Vegas here on A Numbers Game.
13:19
This gentleman, uh, hosts By the Books with Captain America, David Ross, Monday through Friday, that precedes us every one of those weekday mornings. He is kind enough to hang out for an extra 15 minutes with us.
13:32
It's Jensen Lewis, everybody. How you doing, Jensen? Good to be with you boys. Uh, Gil, I'm riding with you, man. Uh, cheering from afar on this most wins, uh, in July market, buddy. It, it's the hardest- Thank you...
13:43
month to handicap because of the All-Star break, and, you know, certain teams only have a game or more or a game fewer.
13:49
So, uh, I, I couldn't believe where the start of the month was, and then after the All-Star break to do what they did. Uh, rooting you on, my friend. Very excited for that big ticket you got. Thank you. I appreciate it.
14:01
Uh, what could [clears throat]... As they say, Gil, as they say, Jensen, what could go wrong, right? What could go wrong here- [laughs]... with eight games left? Right. I can't think of anything. I'm thinking.
14:09
I can't think of anything offhand.
14:11
Um, real quick, uh, people should know, 'cause we were giving, we gave a trivia question to Will Hill the other day about, uh, Bo Jackson, a question about rushing yards and which at, which current NFL coach has more career rushing yards than Bo Jackson.
14:25
Um, and we, we stewed on that or, or it totally rattled Will for his segments.
14:30
You have totally rattled me because you and Kelly just said that you guys went through the five Hall of Famers that have homered off you in your career. Five? Yes. Yeah, there, and, and I, I misspoke.
14:42
There's only four that are currently in, but one that will be there- Ah... pretty soon. Oh. Uh, the one that will be there pretty soon has two homers off me. Miguel Cabrera, uh, is the one.
14:52
But the four current active Hall of Famers, uh, Joe Mauer, which, uh, scuttled a, uh, a shutout save opportunity that I had in Cleveland. Uh, Jim Thome, uh, we're...
15:03
I think NASA is still tracking the ball that he hit off me- [laughs]... uh, at Target Field.
15:08
Uh, Derek Jeter, one of the cheapest opposite field home runs that I still think, uh, had a little fan interference, uh, to deal with it, and then, uh, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., which might have been the one- Oh...
15:19
where you just kinda turn around, Gil. This was a da- I was telling Kelly, it's a day game in Anaheim, getaway day.
15:25
It's a change-up that was low and away, and I had kinda yanked it a little bit into the left-hander's batter's box, or so I thought.
15:33
And Vladimir Guerrero just goes out and absolutely not only tattoos it, but hits it off the mountain there at Angel Stadium- [laughs]... in left center field. Yeah.
15:41
And I just kinda looked and I was like, well, if you're gonna give 'em up, give 'em up to the Hall of Famers. That's what they've been doing their entire career. Uh, so not bad.
15:50
Uh, the only guys that have hit multiple home runs off me are Miggy and Jared Saltalamacchia, who for whatever reason is a perfect- Oh, geez... four for four with two homers and a double off of me.
16:00
So he saw everything that I had. Uh, but that was kind of fun, uh, memory lane, just going there like, all right, you know, the guys that are supposed to hit homers off you, they did.
16:08
And, uh, so not, not bad looking back and, and seeing what we did there. I, I would just like to add- I think it-...
16:13
that Jeter was one of my initial guesses and, and why it convinced me to take it off my list because he just wasn't powerful enough. Oh. You know? Just wasn't powerful enough. By, by the way, I, I buried the headline.
16:24
Wyatt Tomchek joining us later to talk, uh- Yes... some NASCAR with us for God's sakes. I, my apologies to Wyatt. Uh, Saltalamacchia owned you, Jensen. That's interesting. Yes.
16:34
I think I would've gotten, I think I would've gotten Jeter and Thome, but not Mauer or Guerrero. That's my hunch on that. Uh, don't worry. Yeah. It could be worse. The guy- You... Oh, I'm sorry. Go ahead.
16:45
The guys that were the best, and I, and I'll throw it back to you. Kevin Youkilis, 7-14 lifetime, five for seven.
16:51
[laughs] Mark Teahan, five for seven, and I think all five of those hits came at Kauffman Stadium when he was a member of the Royals. So go figure. Uh, Arod, O for four, uh, I think with three punch-outs.
17:02
Uh, Big Papi- Oh, big deal... uh, I believe is, uh, O for seven or O for nine- Oh, big deal... uh, with, uh, a handful of, uh, 150 mile an hour exit velo line outs, but hey, an O for is an O for. Wow.
17:12
So, uh, th- it's always fun going back and be like, "Oh, you know what? I actually kinda own that guy." So that was kinda fun. Flex on 'em, Jensen. I love it. Flex on 'em.
17:20
[laughs] I, I love that you were, uh, able to, uh, move on from the guys who got the best of you- [laughs]... if you know what I mean. Pretty easily, right? [laughs] You're like, you're like, "Youkilis, 7 of 14."
17:30
He's like giving me the advanced stats. Uh, okay. Real quick, so let's get these out of the way first. You have a lot of plays today. What's your biggest one? You have a, uh, big one above all.
17:40
Yeah, I have two totals that I'm, I'm very, very keen on. Uh, the first is in PNC Park, two guys that have been going really well here, Gil. Cubs and Pirates. Uh, Matthew Boyd gonna get the start for Chicago.
17:51
Two of his last three road starts has given up no runs whatsoever, and Jared Jones now has three straight starts where he's allowed one or zero runs. Gonna play an under eight and a half.
18:00
Uh, it's juiced to minus $1.34, but I wanted the extra cushion, uh, in trying to get that one home. So I do very much like the under.
18:08
Even though the Pirates, as a home favorite, the top team to the over, I'm just going more on recency bias here and recent form of where Boyd and Jones have really locked it down here.
18:17
Similarly, with a really good matchup in Philadelphia at Citizens Bank Park, Yankees-Phillies playing an under eight at minus $1.29.
18:25
Cam Schlittler, Gil and Kelly, has not allowed more than two earned runs in a road start since April 12th- Ooh... at Tampa Bay. That spans nine consecutive road starts, two earned runs or fewer.
18:37
And then Jesús Luzardo, who's getting the ball here for Philadelphia, three of his last four home starts, he's given up two runs or fewer.
18:44
I did play a little two unit On the Phillies alternate run line, uh, guys at minus one at plus a dollar nine. Philly is 27 and 16 straight up as a home favorite this year. I think it's lower scoring.
18:56
I like a little three to one, Phillies over the Yankees to get both those big bets home. All right. You also like the Brewers on the run line over the Rockies today, and also taking the over in that ball game. Yeah.
19:07
Tomoyuki Sugano, free batting practice, uh, to any r- a Brewer hitter who wants to jump in on it. Uh, last four starts, a 685 ERA, uh, for the Rocky hurler there. A 4-10 start there at American Family Field.
19:19
So we'll play a unit and a half over eight and a half minus $1.14. Milwaukee is 22 and 19 as a home favorite on the run line, so nothing egregious, nothing ridiculous.
19:29
I just think the Brewer offense right now, really tailor-made, especially some of the left-handed power bats, Yelich, Bowers. Uh, they should be able to take advantage, uh, of where Sugano is at this point.
19:39
And we'll also lay that run line, as I said, minus, uh, one and a half at minus $1.17. So Brewers for a unit and a half on the run line, over eight and a half in that one for a unit and a half as well.
19:50
Uh, and I don't want to shortchange you because there's one more. Tigers run line over the Royals to, to close it out. Got burned on it last night. We'll go right back to the well.
19:58
I'm prepared to get hurt again here, Gil. Uh, but I like- [laughs]... Tarik Skubal a lot more, uh, to be able to limit some of the- Yeah... runs there that Kansas City could get out there.
20:05
For what it's worth, his last 19 innings head-to-head against the Royals, Skubal has just surrendered two total runs.
20:13
Uh, I think that this is a spot really where this Tiger offense, even in a comeback win last night, I think they get out early and often. They put this one away for good. All right. Uh, appreciate that.
20:23
A whole bunch of picks there from Jensen. The trade deadline now 10 days away, man. 10 days. And we've been, you know, we've been emphasizing this. I'm sure you and Dave have as well. We just don't know much.
20:35
There are so many teams- Right... bunched up to that third wild card position, that I'm not sure what front offices are willing to wave the white flag yet. What is your sense of what we do know?
20:48
Who do you have a hunch will here? So because, and, and I know you'll have a rooting interest in this with the Red Sox, uh, welcoming in the Blue Jays, uh, later on tonight. I do think it's stick a fork time in Toronto.
21:02
Uh, they are six games back of the wild card, but they will have starting pitching assets in both Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber that I think they're gonna wanna offload, and I think they will get some very solid return on.
21:14
So I think that's kind of where I draw the line. Toronto, the Athletics, the Royals, and the Angels for sure sellers in the American League at this point.
21:23
That leaves Detroit with the win last night, very critical for them to stay four back, uh, not only in the wild card, but I think four and a half back now in the Central.
21:31
Uh, Gil, I think they, I think every GM that currently today, and, and I think even forecast a week later, if you're within four games with about three or four days before the deadline, I think you're gonna give your team maximum runway to try and be in this as long as possible.
21:49
So, uh, Detroit is kind of my chaos candidate A. If they're out of it, then that means Skubal's gone. Um, but I would also look at Houston. Hou- Dana Brown is defiant to maybe a fault. Yes.
22:00
That guy does not wanna sell, and I don't blame him, but God, Josh Hader would look amazing in a bullpen of a contender. [laughs] Yeah. I just don't think Houston's gonna sell to this point. And so would Mason Miller.
22:12
We're not sure if the Padres are gonna sell in the National League either.
22:15
Um, all right, last thing, and I just wanna harken back to something you said, 'cause y- you played at the highest level, so it's always interesting to pick your brain about this.
22:20
You mentioned Schlittler and his performance on the road. Obviously, he's good everywhere, but particularly on the road.
22:27
Is that a thing when, like, when we as handicappers and as media folks make a big deal over home road splits? Generally, is that really a thing, or is it largely not, and it just happens to be random?
22:40
Uh, there, there is some randomness, but I think just knowing Schlittler and his personality, uh, this is a big dog wanting to eat and loves the theater, loves the opportunity.
22:50
Uh, he didn't get to pitch, you know, here in the Midsummer Classic, and I think that'll mean something to him.
22:56
Not that he couldn't, uh, but this'll be an opportunity for him to shine, and, and he's a guy that loves that kind of stage, Gil, no question about it.
23:03
Yeah, ballpark factor matters, but, um, I'm always curious if, uh, if we make a bigger deal of it than, than not. Jensen, always interesting. Pleasure. Thank you so much for staying on. You got it, boys. Thanks.
23:16
@jlew50, by the way, if you wanna check out Jensen on Twitter. That's J-L-E-W and the, uh, and the word 50 after that. Coming back, Baseball Awards, done or not done.
23:32
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23:41
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23:48
That's justwinbetsbaby.com today, and start betting smarter with Just Win Bets Baby. The name says it all. Uh, I was up two breaks in the, uh, third set, and by me, I mean Maya Sharief. Guess what?
24:02
Four to one to four to four. Oh, die Paola Badosa. I mean, on the tennis court, not in real life. [laughs] Just die. Good quick catch. Good quick catch. Go away. Yeah, I just, that's all I need, right? [laughs] Oh, man.
24:17
Uh, we get sweets, we get sweets that beat the book. Hey, Gil. Wait, hold on. Yes, sir. I got a real serious question for you. Please. I, I, obviously I've been having a lot of fun with the Burachaga.
24:25
We ha- we haven't started yet. Kinda wanna bet Burachaga, but this would obviously be my first time betting it, and you've bet him, like, five times in a row and he's cruising.
24:34
Are you one of those people that's superstitious enough that Kelly should just stay away from betting this? Uh, no, except- Like, am I gonna mess it up? No, except for when it's Todd Wishnev. Okay.
24:44
He is the ultimate mush of other people's bets. See, this is- Todd is a lot of, Todd is incredible at college basketball. Todd is incredible at WNBA. Um, he's a, he's a great bettor himself.
24:55
But the last thing you want is for him to jump on your bets. Okay. Okay, good en- see, this is, I love the very truthful answer from you, Gil, 'cause we talk about it all the time, right?
25:04
And y- and I know you, you know me, we are not the superstitious type, types. Nope. But all of us bettors. Yeah. Little stitious, right? We're a little stitious to- L- we're a little stitious...
25:12
to steal Michael Scott line, yeah. Little stitious. Yeah, we're a little stitious. All right, wait. Even Dr.
25:16
Bob, even Bob, by the way, like, when he, he used to be on a college basketball heater, we would go, we'd go have, uh, salad up here at Blue Barn for, like, ridiculously ex- overpriced, expensive salads up here- Oh, yeah.
25:28
Love those... in San Francisco. Yep. And, uh, I remember one day daring to seat, to sit in a different spot, and he was like, "Hey, what are you doing, man?" [laughs] What are you doing? Leslie, what do you mean?
25:37
That's not our table. It's not our table. What are you doing? Wait, what price did you get on Berachaga again? You had plus money, right? Plus money, plus 117. What is he now? Whoa, this has swung big time.
25:46
He, he, I see minus 120s on him out there. There you go. It's your, it's your 37 cents of CLV. What could possibly happen that, uh- Yeah. Yeah. All right. Maybe I'll stay away- This, this is the thing... from Shopper.
26:00
We had a, we had a match last week where we had, like, 40, 45 cents on Krejčíková, too, and she ended up winning, but it was a, it was a gut check. It was tight. Barbora? Barbora. She won. I always- Yeah...
26:09
I always love to lean into that. Uh, [laughs] we get tweets, Speedy the Book, "New Jersey, New York. One, great job by Kelly yesterday with Coles, first-round leader.
26:20
Two, without getting too into the weeds, if we were to look at Arch Manning without the name, you'd see a second-year starter with pedigree who closed the season having clearly adjusted.
26:28
I think there's a solid chance he has a great 2026." I think that's fair. Yeah. I think that's fair. Uh, Patrick Kelly, "K- Gil just wants to hear Kelly sing some Boruchag again before official vacation.
26:39
Happy Friday, gentlemen." Thank you. Uh, Enright, "Cooper Manning was a good college receiver for Ole Miss and suffered a neck injury, forcing him to quit. We took driver's ed for an elective, and he was hilarious."
26:49
Yeah. Uh, #hottytotty, by the way. He said, uh, yeah, that was the Cooper Manning story. He did get the, uh, the severe neck injury- Yeah... and that was the end of his career.
26:58
Brian Point Shafer, "We all heard it right, Gil. Kelly said, 'You know how I owe you a fruit basket? Pay that man his fruit basket,' in my Teddy KGB voice," he says. All right. I'm sorry. Uh, Altos, th- this is from, uh,
27:11
I'm not even gonna say this, 'cause he's probably, he's trying to get me something. This is from Montes85LT. Um, he says, "Not to RNA the show, but Gil, you heard right. You're owed a fruit basket."
27:22
Paul Nelson, "Good morning, Gil and Kelly Beidelon. Happy Friday from an everyday F- every day is Friday guy. The Chargers start the season with Arizona and the Raiders.
27:29
Wouldn't it be prudent to wait until they're 2-0 to bet the under?" Yes. In fact, we said that exact same thing earlier, a few weeks back. Yeah. Yep.
27:38
Uh, Tron- Tronsky, "Hey, Gil, you're starting off with SEC shooting itself in the foot.
27:43
I don't know why Commissioner Sankey has to double down with his, uh, with this when the playoff committee clearly does not factor in strength of schedule as well as it could.
27:51
This is setting up indeed for division and disappointment." Yeah, that's my first question later, uh, to Chris Gordy, same, the same thing. I, that's exactly what is going to happen. There's no doubt that's on the way.
28:03
Uh, and then, uh, DMil3219, "Gil, please stay another week in Cali. I'm fearing you might return to Vegas and mush that 80 to 1 shot. Great call by you, win or lose. Thanks."
28:12
A, thank you, and I'm not coming back to Vegas next week. I'm letting the Red Sox win first. That w- that, that we should be clear on. It's like 40 degrees warmer in Las Vegas than San Francisco right now.
28:23
Wait, you just said it's- I wouldn't do that... you just told me 58? It's 58 out- 58... right now? Geez. Ish. Shout out to Matt Hicks. I think I guessed that on the number, Matt Hicks did. Was that Matt Hicks?
28:31
Yeah, he often does that back there. It's a little scary. There are ti- by the way, 40 is not the record difference. There have been times where I have flown from 115 in Vegas to, like, 65 here. Yeah.
28:44
So 50, 50 degrees is the record. Uh, warmest place in the country, coldest place in the country. It's a beautiful thing, and by cold, I mean paradise. Sorry. Uh, Maya Sharief serving for the match. Okay.
28:57
Let's, let's do a little bit of this, uh, 'cause we talked about these, uh- Game time, baby... ML- Yeah. What's that? Done or not done yet? What's that, Game- Game time. This is one of my favorite games. Game time.
29:05
We don't play enough. We don't play this enough. Uh, d- we don't play this enough. Done or not done? American League MVP, Yordan Álvarez, minus 350.
29:15
I have been talking up Yordan Álvarez since he was in pl- I don't know about plus money. Yes, short plus money. Mm-hmm. Then into short minus money, then into, like, the minus 175 range, and now he's minus 350.
29:27
Yes, unless he gets hurt, which is what everybody was anticipating, this is done. Ooh. It's done, and it's been done, and I'm not really quite sure why people didn't get that this was done.
29:40
They were so wrapped up in the, "Oh, he's, of course, he's gonna get hurt." By the way, it's Bobby Witt who ends up getting hurt. Um, so you can never predict that kind of thing, obviously.
29:48
But again, he leads in all the Triple Crown categories, and now he leads with margin, Kelly. And he leads in other categories, like the slash lines of OBP and slugging, leads in hits.
29:59
I mean, it's just, it is a complete landslide for Álvarez, to the point now as we turn the calendar, uh, next week to August, then we will get into the discussion of how many more weeks do we have to go where even if he does get an injury, it won't matter.
30:15
Ooh, okay. Right? We're not there yet, but unless he gets hurt, this is done. That's my answer. All right. Uh, NL MVP, Mr. Gil Alexander, Shohei Ohtani coming back to the pack a little bit. He is minus 550 now.
30:31
Pete Crow-Armstrong plus 380. Done or not done yet, NL MVP? I don't think this is done now. Hmm. I don't. I think Will, Will Hill said it best earlier in the week.
30:42
Like, there's too much going on with Shohei right now, um, just in terms of his overall game, period, both pitching and, and hitting, where it's just like, I don't know if this is...
30:54
Like, again, this is one of these things where you have to put your minds into the voters.
30:58
This is a little, little bit of Sort of psych- psychology here, which is okay, this guy can win the award every single year because he is unlike anything else we've ever seen- Yep... you know, since Babe Ruth.
31:13
So might w- might that voter then say to themselves, "Self, I should be seizing on every opportunity where there is a reason not to vote for him"? And this isn't Shohei's A game this year, right?
31:29
This is just not peak Shohei at this point. Um, so could it, could he win still? Of course. Of course he could. Uh, still the leader in the clubhouse and still justifiably so.
31:40
But if this c- if this season, if the regular season sort of enters w- uh, or sort of closes with a whimper, whimper by his standards- Mm-hmm... I don't know if voters don't think of another player to vote for.
31:50
Problem is, I don't know who that player is, and that's why Will's recommendation was the field. Right. So I don't know if that, that's the problem, right? So he could still win this, um, but no one, no one else is
32:02
super emerging, if that makes sense. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, there's plenty of places, though, you could bet no prices, like Will brought up the other day. Yeah.
32:08
I, I think that, I think that would be the way, uh, to go absolutely if, uh, if you were looking to go against Shohei here.
32:15
And I, Gil, I don't know, we bring this up all the ti- a, a lot of the times and, I mean, sometimes about other athletes, which Ohtani is the best example of what you were talking about with the voters.
32:24
And I, like, I think it's worth bringing up. I don't know if me and you have just flat out said it before, but I believe th- I believe in that. I do. Like, I believe that- Yeah...
32:32
that has to be somewhere in the heads of every voter just thinking that way. 'Cause yes, it's...
32:37
A- and I don't say, I don't wanna mean, uh, I don't wanna say that means automatically th- that's going to happen, but it, they at least have to think about that. Yes, I think they do.
32:47
Because again, w- I mean, in the end, i- are you gonna give him 10 MVPs then? Right. Right. You know, I don't know. I mean, nobody else has a chance. Okay, one more here. NL Cy Young, Jacob deGrom down to minus 245.
33:00
Then we have Christopher Sanchez seven to one, Zach Wheeler plus 750, and Chris Sale at nine to one now. Gil, is this done or not done yet? It's not completely done if we don't know if Miz is okay, okay, right? Mm-hmm.
33:14
Physically. Um, because if he just kind of, if they pitch count him to death here or, or, uh, you know, load manage him, by the way, winner, Shariff. Sorry. Boom. I was distracted. Um,
33:27
this is one of these things where if, if he gets load managed too much, right? If the pitch count is too severe here the rest of the way, 'cause all they care about is the playoffs too, right?
33:36
They're not, they're not unlike the Dodgers, uh, in that respect. Then I don't know that it's over. By numbers, right?
33:44
Let's say he just cont- you know, if he were to stay the course, this is over in the same way that Alvarez is over for AL MVP. Because the numbers, he leads in everything. Mm. Everything that matters.
33:55
But the injury, uh, problems make this not done. Not done at all. Yeah? I like it. All right. Boruchaga, the only remaining tennis player. Let's go. It's a little later on, but nice job by Maya Shariff.
34:08
Has a nice little dog there to get us on the board today as we try to get a winning day with Boruchaga later. Uh, coming back, Tyler Shoemaker, WNBA. We'll talk, uh, college football with him.
34:20
College football with Chris Fallica. It's a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:24
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:41
Back on the Numbers Game, live from both San Francisco and Las Vegas. A show so big, one city couldn't contain us, Kelly. That's right. That's what I'm going with. There you go. That's right.
34:50
I'll be back there eventually. Yeah. Football's upon us. I won't be here for football, I promise you that. Um, we get tweets, beating the book. This is from, uh, from Mike Zills Duke 90. "Nice background, Gil.
35:03
Mom's maiden name," or his mom's maiden name, "was McLaren." He says, "My middle name, Gran- and Grandma was in the..." Oh, he says, uh, also, "My middle name, Grandma, was in the 1906 quake here in San Francisco." Wow.
35:17
Oh. Uh, he says, he says, "No, I'm not the heir to the car fortune of McLaren."
35:21
Yeah, uh, San Francisco with, uh, most famously earthquakes in 1906, which destroyed the city, uh, in the early part of the 20th century, and then 1989, of course, famously during, of all things, the Bay Area World Series between the Oakland Athletics and the San Francisco Giants.
35:39
It was game three, I believe. Was it right before game three at Candlest- or not right before, but during game three, of course, at Candlestick Park, and the Bay Bridge collapsed, and the marina behind me was on fire.
35:51
Wow. Um, so wow, his grandma was in the 1906 quake. Uh, the- That, that was the year, uh, with the, the win streak we brought up earlier, right? Was it 1906? Which win streak? Oh, yes, the Cubs and- Right?...
36:03
the Cubs were t- Yeah, the Cubs had the best month in the history of baseball p- win percentage-wise in 1906. That's right. Man, man, if you- Well done, Kelly Bidlin. Well done...
36:10
if you had on your A and G bingo card 1906 being brought up multiple times on the show today- [laughs] That's right... my God. Like, that is.
36:18
Well, look, we, we are going after the very highly coveted 130-year-old audience. [laughs] That's right. That's. Uh, the numbers, guys. The curse of Badosa has lifted? I think it has.
36:30
Uh, Kurz at Fluffy Kittens, "Justice. See ya, Paula." I like how they get more aggressive as we go on. I'm the same way. Get outta here, Mados- Badosa. J- just tormenting us. Till now. Now it's all good.
36:43
Uh, Nemo, Ryan's voice, "I'm also on the Brewers." Oh, this, [laughs] this harkens back to yesterday. I'm glad he's b- I'm glad Nemo is bringing this up. He goes, "I'm also on the Brewers in the over 80, 8 and a half.
36:54
If there's 13 runs, do you think we'll get paid out, or do we need exactly nine? LOL." [laughs] This, this, uh- Be careful where you bet it... for those who missed it. Be careful where you bet it.
37:02
This, this harkens back to yesterday when Crack was all with us. And, uh, Adam Burke, our buddy and our VSiN colleague, um, who is just, does, everything he does is great at VSiN.
37:12
He's responsible for steering the ship for all of our betting guides, writes extensively on the website, managing editor of our website. Uh, he sent us this thing from his buddy, uh, his buddy who had, uh,
37:24
made a bet at DraftKings Predictions market where he had the over eight and a half in a ballgame, the Padres game, couple nights ago against the Braves. It ended up seven to six.
37:34
Um, I'll do the math for everybody again, 13 is in fact more than eight and a half, pretty sure. Uh, and then he got in this back and, and, and they graded a loser.
37:42
He had the over eight and a half and there were 13 runs scored, and he got in this back and forth, which we read on air yesterday, um, which could only be AI, right?
37:53
No human could beat that, could be that ignorant or stupid, right? Man. Right? He says. Man, man, man, have you met some people these days? Yes, I have. I have actually. Yes. I'm trying to be kind. I, I don't know.
38:05
I'm not completely ruling that one out, Gil. I am not ruling that out.
38:09
Well, if it's, if it's a- I mean, people should re- read what they're saying, uh, what they're writing and things like that 'cause it is just complete nonsensical madness, but yeah.
38:16
If it, if it's a human, it's even worse, right? Mm-hmm. If it's a human, it's worse. At least AI you can be like, "Oh, it's just, you know, they don't know what's happening."
38:23
But yes, the, the whole, and they went back and forth, they doubled down on it. They doubled down on it, which was if you were going to win on 13, you would've had to have bet over 12 and a half exactly. So it's just...
38:35
[laughs] And as you pointed out very, uh, smartly, Kelly, because it's a prediction market, there is no s- there is no state regulatory body to, you know, rule on such a thing.
38:48
And I'll add to that, the notion that the CFTC would ever rule on such a- Yeah... bit of minutia is ridiculous, right? Mm-hmm. So it just kind of goes into the ether. Uh, I don't know, man. It's bad.
39:01
I, I mean, a- and, and even more so, right, Gil?
39:03
Like, it's not like you, okay, maybe you have a problem with a bet at a casino or something and, and it's, y- you know, easy way for them to clear it up is just the, the casino takes care of you somehow, right?
39:14
Like, that's not happening. It's a prediction market. Like, the funds are going- Yeah... peer to peer. Like, there's no, there's nothing they can do in a prediction market like that.
39:21
Yeah, you're not pulling it out of the other dude. Well, maybe you are, I don't know. I don't know. Yeah. Uh, we've talked a lot NFL this week. We of course love our VSiN NFL betting guide, which we all participated in.
39:32
We talked extensively about that through the, uh, through the summer. And of course this week it's, uh, been Aaron Schatz's week here on the show because, uh, he showed up on Monday talking about the FTN Almanac.
39:42
And by the way, let me just shout out Mike Tanier, who has been with him at Football Outsiders and now at FTN again. Mike Tanier synopsis, synopses I should say, in that almanac are so wildly funny.
39:55
Like, I, I laugh, I laugh out loud every time reading them. We'll get to the NFC West later. But our dude that we have sort of neglected is our buddy Cleve T.A.
40:03
who does such a great job previewing the NFL, does such a great job with awards. Are we getting Cleve on here at some point this summer? Yes. Yeah, I talked with him a little bit yesterday.
40:12
He is, uh, wrapping up his guide now. Sounds like that, his full preview guide should be out sometime next week.
40:18
So for anybody out there who's like me, that that is a regular, uh, thing that you consume in the off-season, that should be, expect sometime next week, and, yeah, we'll get him on, uh, sometime when you get back, Gil.
40:28
Sweet. Okay. Um, Cleve does a great job with awards. So let's take Offensive Player of the Year, where he has put together the parameters of what has been the case in history.
40:39
What are the parameters needed to maximize your chance of winning in betting these awards?
40:46
For Offensive Player of the Year, Kelly, since 2000, Cleve tells us nine quarterbacks, 13 running backs, and four wideouts have won this award. However, the last seven winners have all been skill position players.
40:57
All four wideouts who have won have been within the past seven years as pass rates have increased, and I will add, as some of the voters have just sort of decided this is the repository for best player outside of a quarterback.
41:12
Mm-hmm. That just is sort of how they put this in their heads.
41:15
He also, uh, tells us the last 16 winners made the playoffs and their teams won 10 or more games, so offensive players of the year simply do not come from mediocre or bad teams.
41:25
And of the 16 skill position winners since 2000, all were age 28 or younger, wow, when they entered the season. A rookie has never won this award, so you can't be a rookie, you can't be old.
41:35
C- can we- I, I forgot about that one. Yeah, can we stop on that one for a sec? Yeah. 'Cause the, how much do you, or how much does that register with you? 'Cause I, I, I guess the way, uh, you can read- Not much.
41:46
Yeah, no, me either. Yeah. Right? 'Cause I think the way to read beyond that or read through that is just the, okay, guys, when are their, when is usually their peak years in the NFL, right?
41:56
It's age 25, 26, 27 usually, right? I don't know that we're talking about... A- and it's usually not rookie for an award like this. So I think that makes sense, but it's still interesting to see written out.
42:07
It is interesting. Do we have the odds, by the way, for Offensive Player of the Year? Yep, we sure do. Uh, for this year? Um- Jameer Gibbs, seven to one, uh, top of the board Okay. Bijan Robinson, plus 850.
42:18
Ja'Marr Chase, plus 950. Puka Nacua, 11 to one. Christian McCaffrey, 12 to one. Justin Jefferson, 14 to one. Jackson Smith-Njigba, 15 to one. Saquon Barkley, 16 to one. Everybody else, 18 to one or longer.
42:32
Oh, my God, could those odds be more accurate? I know. Like, that's exactly what they should be. Those guys, those are the suspects.
42:41
And Jahmyr Gibbs at the, at the shortest shot of that bunch, remember, no more David Montgomery. So this is the first year where the Lions are like- Mm-hmm... "You're our guy, buddy. You're our bell cow.
42:50
Let's not act like you're not anymore." Uh, Bijan was a candidate for this, I thought he should've won it maybe last year. And then there's Ja'Marr Chase now with the return of Joe Burrow.
43:01
Puka's Puka, as long as he's not getting in trouble off the field. And oh, there you go, Christian McCaffrey there every year. And Justin Jefferson, and the reigning champ JSN, and Saquon in case he has a bounce back.
43:12
That whole first column, no one would surprise you. What's the worst bet on this page?
43:18
'Cause I, I'm like kinda sitting here thinking- [laughs] Like, Brad, I'm kinda sitting here thinking, like you could make a case for almost every single one of these.
43:26
The worst bet on this page is on the sec- Rashod Rice? Is in the second column, and I, for some reason I said CeeDee Lamb.
43:34
Because to me it will be, okay, even if he has a great season, it'll all be empty yards in the end. That's my thought. Yeah. That could be fair. I think there are some interesting long shots on here.
43:48
Like the ones that, like I, it's, it's tough. I think all these awards are tough. We've kinda been going through these, right? Like I don't remember, you and I love talking awards. I feel like I've usually got- Yeah...
43:57
multiple bets at this point heading into a season, and I don't have a single one in awards markets yet.
44:02
I do think that if you're higher than me, this would not be a bet for me, but if you're, if you're betting on Houston this year, you think this is that year where the defense is there and the offense comes along, Nico Collins at 35 to one is interesting.
44:15
And then I think the other one for me, I'm gonna throw out two more, Gil. A.J. Brown. Like I know it's been nothing but bad news around A.J. Brown for the next, last year. But he will be- I can't do it, man.
44:26
He will be the- I can't do it... go-to wide receiver on New England. You're gonna get 40 to one on an alpha wide receiver. Like that's kinda interesting to me. And then I got one for you. Kinda similar situation.
44:38
Terry McLaurin 150 to one? Wait a minute. What's happening? [laughs] 150 to one? Like, like we just talked about it the other day. Like he's the only guy that we trust them to throw the ball to there.
44:52
I'd, uh, bet him at 150 before I'd bet A.J. Brown at 40, let's put it that way, though I don't think either will win. Um, what do you think I'll, what do you think will happen first, A.J.
44:59
Brown wins Offensive Player of the Year, or I'll get that fruit basket you apparently owe me? [laughs] What do you think happens first? Uh, A.J. Brown, Offensive Player of the Year. But it better happen- Okay...
45:06
the next couple years. All right. Getting old. Yeah. I think Jahmyr Gibbs is the correct short shot. And remember, these are all regular season awards. The playoffs do not matter on all these.
45:16
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