Transcript 0:00 Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more. That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer. 0:08 Make a smart buy on the off-road-ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest-lasting trucks. 0:15 Built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between. 0:21 Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday. 0:27 And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way. 0:37 And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you could trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota. 0:44 From a great deal today to great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places. 0:53 [upbeat music] This is VSiN, the sports betting network. The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. 1:12 Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, SiriusXM channel 158. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bedell in two cities. 1:23 City's not big enough for the both of us, or the show's not, uh, can't be contained by one city. That's probably a better way. That's right. Can't be contained- Yeah... to one studio. 1:32 Uh, still, still to come on this show, Christopher Felica, you may know him as El Oso, The Bear, uh, talk college football with us here momentarily. Tyler Shoemaker is gonna talk college football futures with us. 1:43 He's got some, uh, season win totals for us, um, focusing on some really bad college football teams with Tyler a little later on. Love it. And odds to win the, uh, WNBA championship. He has thoughts as well. 1:56 Chris Gordy from, uh, Locked On SEC hosting, uh, he's also the Astros pregame host- Mm-hmm... by the way. I did not know that about Chris. But we'll talk, uh, SEC football with him on the heels of SEC Media Day. 2:08 And I do not wanna shortchange because I shortchanged him earlier. 2:12 We always look for an excuse to have crowd favorite, the people's champion, Wyatt Tomchek on the show, whether it's wrestling or NASCAR, and we have an excuse to have him on with NASCAR. It's the Brickyard 400. 2:24 He's got thoughts. Looking forward to that. You know what he led with, by the way, when I asked him if he wanted to come on yesterday? He's like, "Well, there's pretty big wrestling in two weeks." I was like, "All right. 2:33 Well, in two weeks- [laughs]... is kinda a ways away, man, for wrestling, right?" Dude, as I learned when doing wrestling extensively with Wyatt, people love it. It's incredible. Doesn't matter if it's two weeks away. 2:44 It, it, it's, I, nothing has shocked me more in all of my years of working in sports media of just everybody you work with loves wrestling. I didn't know it. 2:52 Now, now of course I have to ask him about it when he comes on later. Yeah, yeah. We will. Uh, and then we'll also get defensive player of the year parameters and thoughts, uh, from Cleve TA. 3:00 Not thoughts from him, but his parameters, and we'll, we'll talk about the odds on defensive player of the year in the National Football League. And we'll of course talk about the NFC West. 3:07 My God, I already forgot about that. Gotta talk about the, uh, the division of the champion Seattle Seahawks and the, uh, the next best team in the LA Rams. Uh, we get tweets beat in the book. 3:19 Scola, also hearkening back to the, uh, to the crack hour yesterday. He goes, "Anyone check on Ethel this morning?" Regulators. [laughs] I'll add mount up. Yep. Uh, Super Jerk has chimed in. 3:31 They, by the way, best listeners of the game, I have to tell you. This is just so wildly entertaining. Super Jerk, "Talk extensively about the betting guide? No kidding. 3:39 If I hear more about it, I'm gonna fly to San Francisco and jump off the Golden Gate Bridge." Super Jerk, everybody. Super Jerk has chimed in. Oh, oh, also he said, "Where's my LeBron update?" 3:49 He's in a very, he's in a very bad mood, [laughs] very bad mood this morning. And Tony Tags with the tweet of the morning thus far. 3:55 He said, uh, tennis players, quote, "We're getting berated by all these fans not rooting for their bets. It's crazy." Uh, "Now rooting for their bets. It's crazy. Gil, die Badosa." [laughs] Have a good weekend, boys. 4:07 That was my favorite moment- Here's the thing... of the show so far. The, the, Gil- I've almost-... Gil saying that immediately stopping. Immediately Immediately. I'm like, I don't mean, I don't mean it literally. 4:16 I, here's the thing, I'm almost glad she won the second set, because if she hadn't done that, I don't know if she's walking off the court again, right? Yeah. So good job, Maya Sharif. Here's what I'll do. 4:25 I'll let her win the second set, then I'll win the third set. Uh, okay, ladies and gentlemen, you know him as The Bear. 4:30 He, uh, is of course Fox Sports stalwart on all kinds of sports, including, uh, his great month of World Cup betting and all of his videos on his social, but of course his bread and butter is horse racing and college football. 4:44 It's Christopher Felica, everybody, joining us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. Chris, good morning. You are unbelievable. I, I- What did I do?... wishing ill on Paula Badosa. Right? 4:55 Who's gone through so many injuries- [laughs]... and depression and mental health issues and the- Sure... breakup with abusive Stefanos Tsitsipas. 5:03 [laughs] Back on the court enjoying tennis, and, and you're rooting against her. What a jerk, right? You're unbelievable. Did, did I- You, you, and Crack is right, by the way. 5:12 You, you and your vacations and not being in Vegas and off ti- [laughs] Like, we gotta do something about you. You know what, Chris? I mean- We'll suspend you- You know-... for the next two weeks. Suspend you. 5:21 That's right. Get out of here, Alexander. Just like, just like they do on the, uh, on the Survivor dock. "Oh, you're gone. Penalty box." Yep. "Five minutes for slashing." [laughs] Well, I didn't know this was a roast. 5:32 Um, Chris- It is... let, let's start with, by the way, we, let's start with horse racing. You have a h- you have a- Mm-hmm... horse bet today? Uh, tomorrow. Tomorrow. Uh, Del Mar's open. Tomorrow. 5:42 A big Pick 6 carryover today, by the way. At Del Mar for those who want to fire a ticket. I think a close to $200,000 carryover at Del Mar. So I'm certainly going to jump in later today. 5:53 But tomorrow, the Bing Crosby big sprint race at Del Mar. Cornucopian is a horse that if you end numbers game listeners clearly remember last year, we jumped on Cornucopian in the Kentucky Derby futures. 6:08 And then he broke his maiden in dominant fashion and then did not run so well in the Arkansas Derby, did not make the triple crown. But he is back now. And he is really good in the sprint distances. 6:19 He draws outside for Bob Baffert at Del Mar in this race. I think he sits the perfect trip. He's three to one on the morning line. I doubt he will go off at three to one. 6:30 But this looks like a field that he should handle with relative ease based on some of the runners in here that he's already faced and newcomer from Phil D'Amato who's on the rail as well. 6:42 But Cornucopian, I would expect probably you're going to get closer maybe to seven or five or so on this horse. But I do think he will win tomorrow. Del Mar race number 10, the number six horse, Cornucopian. 6:54 Are you involved in that pick six, by the way, Chris, or no? I will be. Yeah, it's still early in the day. We had to spend our morning taking Axel Foley to get a little blood test, the cat to the vet. 7:05 So I came back here and got prepared for this segment. But yeah, this afternoon will be spent breaking down the Del Mar pick six and handicap. We can throw in the ticket together. 7:15 Did you just say your cat's name was Axel Foley? Is that what you just said? I did. One of the greatest movie characters of all time. Absolutely. Well, what's your other cat's name? Samson. 7:27 We kept that name from the rescue shelter. He looks like a Samson, this little orange buff cat. He's scared of his own shadow, though. A little difference between Samson and my cat is that little detail. Yes, exactly. 7:43 Yeah. Yeah. Okay, before we get to your college football picks, and at the risk of me bringing this up three times on the show today, which I think I will because we have some SEC talk later. 7:52 But I started out the show just because we're going down the lineup. 7:55 And I mentioned this thing about going to nine conference games and how it just feels like this is going to be a, this is going to be ruling the committee debate, right? 8:06 When we get to that point in the season where it's like, okay, sure, Georgia might get in. I don't know if Texas will get in all that. Maybe, you know, maybe there'll be a couple locks. 8:17 But man, this feels like there's going to be at least a few SEC teams that are going to be on the outside of this looking in because of the interconference, or I should say the intraconference competitiveness, right? 8:29 And so many of these games are going to end up being super close one score games. You agree with that? Yeah, without a doubt. And I think you look at the preseason win totals, and I think that 8:41 illustrates what we're talking about here. LSU's win total is what, eight and a half. A&M's win total is eight and a half. Texas, Georgia, nine and a half. 8:49 Like that's what we're dealing with because you're losing a bye game that a lot of other conferences that they had in the past and they don't anymore. And it's going to be an issue. 8:59 And this is kind of what Sark and some other SEC and Nick Saban and some other SEC coaches were talking about, just saying how 9:09 a nine and three team from the SEC can be better than a 10 and two team from the Big 12 or the ACC. Like that's possible. Like you look at the power ratings for these teams. 9:20 Like these teams that are going to have maybe potentially a nine and three record are going to be power rated higher than some of these other teams from other conferences that maybe have a better record. 9:30 That's why one loss record is the worst possible indicator of how good a team is. There is no sport out there that is reliant and should be as schedule adjusted than college football. 9:44 And I think that's what we were talking about last year too. Obviously gaming with the group of six teams getting in and the SEC teams that got left out, notably Texas. But 9:54 I didn't necessarily think Texas belonged in last year, but I get Sark's point. But yeah, this is going to be a thing. 10:00 And much to my dismay, and I think of a lot of people's dismay, I ultimately do think as a result of kind of something like this, we are going to see an expansion to 24. 10:13 And you're going to wind up getting more of these SEC teams and that probably should be in. 10:17 And at the same time, you're going to wind up getting a lot of the Arizonas and the Houstons of the world that maybe finish nine and three or 10 and two in a weaker conference that are going to kind of get in. 10:30 You're going to get out bracket type games that have no resemblance of a playoff whatsoever. 10:36 We have a bunch of head to heads that you have bet, not only SEC versus SEC, but actually sometimes SEC versus schools from other conferences and not having to do with the SEC at all. 10:47 But real quick, before we get off the subject, Georgia is the, it's actually Texas who's the short shot at some shops, a little shorter than Georgia. Who do you think wins the conference ultimately? I don't see that. 10:59 I think Georgia would be the best bet to win the conference because I think they are certainly the most likely to make the SEC championship game what they've won at the last couple of years. 11:09 They've beaten Texas, what, three times in the last couple of years. I think this is going to be a Georgia team that's going to be more familiar to college football fans that know Kirby Smart's defensive prowess. 11:23 The biggest issue for Georgia the last couple of years is just the explosive plays on offense. And that has been an issue since Monken has left. 11:32 And the new coordinator and Bobo has taken a lot of heat as coordinator for not having the ability to stretch defenses out and make big plays. Is that a knock or a realization on Gunner Stockton? Who knows? 11:44 They've had offensive line injuries. So there have been a lot of circumstances with Georgia. I do think that if you look at the schedule, though, they got the road games at Bama. They got the road game at Ole Miss. 11:55 Even if they lose both of those games, which they'll be favored in 10 and two, that will be good enough to get them in the In, in the SEC championship game. 12:03 Like I even played it in over nine and a half minus 80 on Georgia, 'cause I, I don't think they lose both of those games. And if you look at the remainder of the schedule, uh, it looks very manageable. 12:12 So I think 10 and two is a bare minimum, but they're more, I think they're more looking at 11 and one. Yeah. Here's how manageable it is as I'm- Wow... looking at this. Yeah. 12:20 Uh, they are projected favorites, Georgia is, in every single game, and by multiple scores in all but two of them. Um, and you're so right. 12:29 You know, the interesting thing about Stockton, 'cause you're so right, like this, the field doesn't stretch. It's literally like the only knock on Georgia is that they don't have the big plays. 12:36 But you do wonder, 'cause you sort of alluded to this, you do wonder if it's almost by design also. Like your defense is so freaking good, like why should you take risks kind of thing. I don't know. 12:48 I mean, there's a lot at play there. Mm-hmm. Uh, Chris Fallica, college football head-to-heads. These are gonna be great. Next on The Numbers Game. You're here because you want an edge. 12:56 That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real, mindset alone doesn't get bets home. Pros win because they've got the tools, the data, and the discipline, and now so can you. 13:05 VSiN Pro gives you access to the same real-time insights the sharps use. No secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets. 13:12 Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with VSiN Pro. 13:17 [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. 13:34 Sharp plays in full effect mode, unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting info, and alerts directly from the pros. 13:43 You could scan the QR code on your screen for more. SharpPlays.com. Check it out. By the way, a, uh, apolitical political, uh, report, Kelly? Sure. Very different, apolitical political report. Yeah, sure. 13:53 What do you got? What do you got? There is a, there is a race in Arizona for Congress- Yep... between a former Jets kicker and a former Jets doctor. That's all. Wow. That's all I have to say. Yep. 14:06 This is, uh, this is the Jay Feely, uh, r- uh, p- Jay Feely versus Amit Shah. Okay. There you go. Wow. All right. Good, good nugget right there. Pi- pick your Jets poison. There you go. 14:17 I'm laughing at, uh- Uh, we get-... or the great Danny Higgins, who's on vacation, decided to po- [laughs]... tweet, tweet into the show and post a picture. I saw this. He goes, "Montana mode on." Yeah. You saw this? 14:26 Montana mode on. Decided to send us- Uh-huh... a pic- of how, one of the most beautiful states in this country, Montana, and he sends us a picture- Montana is beautiful... of the tarmac at the airport. 14:36 [laughs] That's right. Good. Sweet. Thanks, Danny. Make sure Eva Isovich is not in Montana. [laughs] Uh, no emu Doug. Ooh, a Gil roast. Open to listeners? Sure, let's open it up. 14:48 Uh, Xavier82, "Gil, whatever happened with Paula Badosa to have her become the villain? Besides losing some wagers on her, has her overall numbers just tanked?" 14:56 No, no, no, there's no problem in, uh, fading her and losing. 14:59 It's that when you fade her and are about to win and she walks off the court just, you know, sort of randomly to, uh, prevent you from winning as much money as you could, those, the combination of those two, two things becomes aggravating. 15:11 He is betting on Badosa, though. Oh, now Wyatt Chom- Tomchek sending in Montana pictures. Back to Danny Higgins. Um, okay. Chris Fallica, once again, kind enough to join us for a second segment, as is his want. 15:23 Uh, not here next week, b- but in studio perhaps two weeks from now for, for Bet Bash. You're, what are you doing at Bet Bash, Chris? 15:29 Um, well, yeah, I'll, I'll be, I'll be there during the, during the week, so yeah, I could, I could pop in during the week if, maybe if you, if you'd like. There we go. Coming out me and Dustin. 15:36 So me, me and Joe and, uh... Yeah. Yeah, may- I'll, I'll do that. I won't be there. I'll do that. Yeah. Good. Um, y- you're doing [laughs] you're doing your, you're doing your podcast live from Bet Bash, correct? Yeah. 15:48 Well, I believe it's going to be Wednesday at 1:00 Pacific Time, is the window that- Oh... Spanky has us, uh, s- set in. Nice. I think from 1:00 to 2:00 on, on Wednesday. So yeah, no, that'll, that'll be fun. 16:00 Uh, Sammy, Jeff, Will, and myself, it'll be, it'll be a good time. Looking forward to, uh, running into some people out there. Saw Joe Peta has a nice panel that I, uh, signed up for- Joe Peta... 16:08 about baseball, uh, wagering changes, and, uh- Yes... I think Tim Murray and, uh, Brett McMurphy's Stash have a college football preview panel that I'll be, uh, attending as well. 16:17 So no, I'm looking forward to, uh, coming out there and having fun. Yeah. The Joe, the Joe Peta baseball panel, or, or pl- or as I should say, seminar, let's call it. The Joe Peta baseball seminar- Yeah... 16:28 is about how baseball betting has changed in 15 years. Uh, I have lunch with him every Monday here in San Francisco, and it should be fabulous for people in attendance, um, based on- Good... 16:37 what he's telling me he's gonna talk about. Uh, let's get to, uh, college. Speaking of- By the way, Spanky is- Speak, speak- Spanky has never invited me to have-... speaking of baseball, Joe Peta- What, say again? 16:46 I'm sorry. I'm sorry. Okay. I, I didn't know you were still talking. Go ahead. I was gonna, gonna say, being that I'm not going to be here, uh, next week, I wanna, 16:54 I'm not going to congratulate you on the Red Sox, but I wanna just wish you a- Oh, thank you... good remainder of the, the month of July, uh, for w- over the final seven days of the month. So good luck with that. 17:03 Thank you. That's, that's very kind of you. And I hope you get- Very sweet of you... 17:05 for, for all, for all the good bets that, that you and myself and Will have made, the 80s to one, hundreds to one, 150 to one, for all the good numbers that we've closed at, like, ridiculously short prices and haven't won, I hope someone finally gets one of these good prices home. 17:21 Yeah, Will has had a bunch of those, hasn't he? He feel, I feel like he's had more than anybody, where it's, like, great numbers and they just barely don't, yeah, they barely miss. Um- Yeah... 17:30 I, what I was trying to get in was I was like, I was sh- I was going, "Spanky never invited us to have the Megapod over there at, uh, Bet Bash. Hmm, could it be a Todd thing? I don't know." Uh, okay. To college football. 17:42 You may interpret, interpret that as you see fit. Yeah [laughs] interpret that as you see fit. Right. All right. Head-to-head season wins at DraftKings. You saw a few of these that you loved. Yeah. 17:52 Uh, okay, Texas Tech versus Texas. How did you play this? Uh, Texas Tech minus one and a half wins over Texas, and this is regular season only. Uh, so mi- minus 140, uh, o- one and a half wins over Texas. 18:07 Again, the baseline for Texas, even without Swearinger is 11 and one. The league is terrible. Uh, they don't get BYU. They don't get Utah. 18:16 All of their toughest games, [laughs] Arizona State, Houston, Arizona, TCU, uh, they're all in Lubbock. But like I said, th- no, they brought in more transfers and more portal guys than anybody in the league. 18:28 They're still the class of the league. So like 11 and one is baseline. And just like we kind of alluded to with, with the SEC conversation before, nine and three is on the table for Texas. Like, they go to LSU. 18:39 They go to A&M. They have Ohio State coming in. Uh, they got the Oklahoma game in Dallas. Ole Miss comes to, comes to Austin as well. Like, this is what Sark is talking about. 18:48 You look at the Texas schedule compared to the, the, the Tech schedule and it's- Yeah... it's night and day. It's two different sports. Like 12 and O is legitimately on the table for Texas Tech. 18:58 And if that, if they go Te- if they go 12 and O, Texas has got to go 11 and one to beat you. And, and, and that's certainly not happening. 19:05 I think more than likely we're looking at Texas Tech 11 and one, Texas nine and three, and I think we get that one. Yeah. You, you said it, man. It's two different sports. 19:17 Like, that's such a great way of, of characterizing some of the, the incongruity of college football. Meanwhile, Texas has the toughest schedule in the nation. 19:26 What did you think about the hiring of, of Will Muschamp, by the way, a de- a defensive coordinator? I liked it. 19:33 I, I, I think Will is a really good defensive mind and I think he's gonna create a little bit of chaos and a little bit of urgency and a little bit of a kick in the, kick in the tuchus for maybe SE. 19:44 He's a great motivator. I think it's gonna work out well. By the way, Chris, that's tuchus. Tuchus. Oh, I, I apologize. There we go. Forgive me. It's all right. It's all right. 19:53 And where's Arts gonna get drafted at, Chris? Re- re... I'm, I'm kind of obsessed with this already 'cause I've he- I've heard such very- Oh, he's a, he's a, he's a top five pick. Okay. Not falling out of that? 20:03 By the time he comes out, absolutely. I, I know Jordan Rogers, uh, ca- came out and said, like, he didn't think he was like a number one type pick right now, but the way he finished last year, like e- Yeah... 20:13 he took such a... The, the, the expectations that he had, yeah, he started off slowly as any young quarterback would and he finished up great. So, he's gonna be, he'll be fine. 20:22 You know how they just drafted the quarterback position anyway. Yeah. So he'll, he'll, he'll go higher than, than he should even if he shouldn't have gone that high. 20:29 As I said earlier, best total QBR in college football from November on last year among quarterbacks. All right, Georgia versus Ohio State. How are you playing this? 20:41 Uh, I took Georgia minus a half a win and plus money, uh, against Ohio State. Uh, Georgia has about the easiest of the, uh, possible SEC schedule, uh, as you could have. 20:51 They had the worst of it the last couple of years, so it's kind of flipped. The, at Bama, at Ole Miss, uh, those are the two toughest games. The D should be better like we talked about. So 11 and one seems fair. 21:03 Could Ohio State go 10 and two if it... Yeah, I think they could. Uh, they go to Texas. They, they, they go to Iowa, which is always a tricky place to play. They go to Indiana. They have Oregon coming to the Horseshoe. 21:14 They go to SC and I think they should beat SC, but that's the week before the Oregon game so maybe there's a little bit of a look in. But I, I think a plus money, uh, is attractive here. 21:23 Ohio State recruits as well and portals as well as anyone in the country. But is Chris Henry gonna be the number two wide receiver behind Jeremiah Smith? 21:31 Is the offensive line going to be better than they were in their last two games last year against Miami and Indiana? Uh, are they gonna replace the tight end? The four studs that they have to replace on defense. 21:42 A lot of questions I think with Ohio State. Talent wise they're still there, but, but they could be 10 and two and you could lose this bet. Wi- wi- with, with Ohio State- Okay... if you take Ohio State. 21:52 Um, what about this one right here? I saw a video of yours. By the way, Chris Fallica's Instagram is a great watch this summer between the World Cup and college football. You've done a great job. 22:01 The folks at Fox have done a great job with your feed. Um, you just did a video not related to this particular matchup, but you are really high on Oregon it seems. 22:11 So you have taken in this matchup Oregon minus four and a half games plus 125 versus Nebraska. 22:19 Yeah, I, I think Oregon has the fewest questions, uh, in the country of any of these, the big national contenders with what they brought back, uh, players returning from injury and how they've recruited and brought in players in the, in, in the portal along with the schedule. 22:33 Um, you, you look at the Oregon schedule and it- it's basically a situation where they go to Ohio State, but they haven't lost to a team that hasn't played for the national championship since 2022. 22:45 Like, their losses were Washington in 2023, Ohio State in 2024, and Indiana last year. Like, they win all of the games that they should win. 22:54 They are n- they are, I don't wanna say upset proof, but they're kinda upset proof the way Alabama and Nick Saban used to have that, that long winning streak against unranked teams. 23:04 Whereas with Nebraska, they're gonna go 11 and one. Nebraska I think has six and six stamped right in the middle of the forehead. 23:10 Like, they're hoping that Anthony Calandra, who was at UNLV last year, they hope they're getting that version as opposed to the version who played in the Power Four at Virginia. But 23:21 they, what, I don't think Rule has beaten a ranked team at Nebraska. I think they're, what, two and 11 or something like that in November. Like, they're not gonna beat Indiana. They're not gonna beat Oregon. 23:31 They're not gonna beat Ohio State. And then they're at Iowa. Rutgers could be a tricky game. Would you be shocked if Maryland or Washington went to Lincoln and won? I sure as heck wouldn't. [laughs] Yeah. 23:41 People are gonna get all excited in Nebraska like they did last year. 23:44 They're gonna start four and O because of the bad non-conference schedule and getting Michigan State early on, and then they're gonna wind up going two and six down the stretch. 23:51 So I, uh, I took the plus money and laid four and a half with Oregon here. All right. Uh, there was a bonus, uh, season win total under on USC, but we'll let you flesh that out another time at eight and a half points. 24:02 Yeah. Chris Fallica, everybody. The Bear. @ChrisFallica on Twitter. The host of the Bear Bets podcast, which he will do live at Bet Bash two weeks from now with all of his crew. Thank you, Chris. You got it, guys. 24:16 Have a great weekend Coming back, we'll talk NFC West next right here on The Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. 24:33 The VSiN NFL Betting Guide is out now. Whether you're betting futures, win totals, division races, MVP, Rookie of the Year, or Super Bowl odds, our guide helps you get ahead of the market before training camps begin. 24:44 Inside, you'll find breakdowns of all 32 teams, projected win totals, best bets from VSiN experts, futures analysis, power ratings, and more. Get it today with our football special for just $175. 24:53 The sooner you sign up, the more value you get, with full access to everything we do across every sport through the Super Bowl. 24:59 That includes daily best bets, real-time betting splits from DraftKings and Circa, AI-powered prop projections, and 24/7 video on the VSiN Watch app. Head to vsin.com/subscribe now. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. 25:12 Gil Alexander, San Francisco. Kelly Bilin in Las Vegas. We get tweets of Beating The Book. This is, uh, in tribute to Wyatt Tomchek, who will be joining us later, uh, to talk NASCAR- Wow... and maybe some rasslin'. 25:23 Uh, Xavier82 says, "Back in the day I used to love WWF rasslin'. That was during its peak, from Cactus Jack putting his body on the line versus The Undertaker to Stone Cold Steve Austin versus The Rock. 25:34 If smack talking were an art form, they were the masters." And he didn't say smack. [laughs] I wanna point that out. Good job, Ron Burgundy. Uh. You did some editing on the fly. I like it. Thanks very much. 25:45 That was well done. I'm Ron Burgundy. What was the... 25:47 Hey, I need Larry and Darnell to answer this question, but the, when Dustin fills in, he always calls us some, some tag team duo from, like, back then, and I'm like, I, I never... The New Age Outlaws, thank you. 25:57 That's what Dustin always calls us. I never, I, I never, I never get the reference, of course. 26:01 [laughs] Buddhist Man, "First off, Kelly, stop sucking up with the Terry McLaurin Offensive Player of the Year stuff," he says. 26:07 [laughs] "Secondly, as a close follower of Cleve TA's Twitter, you may wanna ask him specifically about Nico Collins." Oh, does he love Nico Collins? Offensive Player of the Year? 26:15 Oh, uh, Cleve's one of the guys I've seen bring him up, yep. Oh, okay. And Corbin, "Morning, fellas. Mornings like this is why I love a numbers game. Die, Paula Badosa," [laughs] quote-unquote. 26:26 "Can't wait for one of the producers to turn Gil into a WWE promo roasting Paula. You all heard the man. Also, Kelly, I thought you were a post-Prohibition man. What's up with the 1906 facts?" Whoa, whoa, whoa. 26:36 Good point. Well, no, no, no, no. I brought it up in the first segment. I brought it up in the first segment. Doesn't count, but I didn't, I didn't expect 1906 to be brought up twice in the show. 26:45 So I'm just amazed now that it got brought up twice. It's a big year. [laughs] Big, big year. Talk about the earthquake here in San Francisco. Talk about a monthly, uh, Cubs performance in 1906, in August, I believe. 26:58 Wow. Is that, is that right? I think it is. Uh, we have breaking news. That is correct, Wyatt. LeBron James, uh, per Shams Charania, LeBron James to the Philadelphia 76ers. Friday news dump. Boom, boom, boom. Wow. 27:13 There is your Friday news dump. Now, it, here's the thing. We all like to say we don't care. Ah, that's pretty f- that's pretty surprising to me, Kelly. I did not see that coming. 27:24 Yeah, I mean, look, Eastern Conference, I don't think... I, I didn't r- I don't really know what to b- I, dude, the surprised or not surprised, it's gonna sound lame, but I'm like, I'm not shocked, Gil. 27:34 But I think there's, think there's six teams that this could've made sense for, right? This is why it was, the whole time for me, not really worth a, a bet. Two-year, $8 million deal with a player option. 27:45 So basically a one-year deal. Uh, he'll get the, he'll get the player option in year two, it sounds like. Um, hell of a deal for the 76ers. This is, this is... 27:55 Like, we talk about LeBron, and I forget who said it, Zach or Nick, the past couple days. They, I think they said it well. Like, we, th- we talk about LeBron. We're all getting tired of this. 28:03 Understand he's still a great player, though, at age, what, 41, or he's gonna be 41 heading into that. Like, if you're paying him $4 million a year, like, he's a great addition to any team. 28:16 Well, that's, and not only that, but for- forget the money for a second. The reason that it surprised me is I was pretty convinced it was either going to be Cleveland or Miami. Mm. Right? I thought there was a reunion. 28:27 I, I never thought it was gonna be the Dubs, uh, here in Gold- you know, here in, in San Francisco because while that sounded great on paper, it's like, why would he come to the Western Conference just to miss, you know, have no opportunity to win a championship? 28:41 The Sixers now, with the acquisition of Jaylen Brown and LeBron James, 'cause we had Zach on yesterday, and Zach said it best, which is I don't care what you think of LeBron James, him as, like, a third option is still awesome on a team. 28:54 Um, so- Yeah, what is he on- So- What is he on the 76ers, though? What is he, like, the fourth option or something? [laughs] It's like the fourth or fifth option. Yeah. Clearly, right? Depending on Joel Embiid's health. 29:04 I, I- Right... I think the only- But if he-... the only negative of this for Philadelphia, it's the same thing you coulda said when Jaylen Brown was added, right? 29:12 It's, it's anything that's limiting the development of a V.J. Edgecombe and a Tyrese Maxey is a little concerning, and that would be the one thing that you can continue to say, right? 29:24 It's, it's another mouth to feed, another guy that you gotta g- that's gonna require the ball more, and it's just, is, this, at some point, this needs to become Tyrese Maxey's team for them to have a- Yeah... 29:35 long run, uh, of great play here and not just kinda put it together year by year. Tyrese Maxey, Jaylen Brown, Joel Embiid if he's healthy, LeBron James. 29:48 Man, the, the, the only other thing I'll say about this is they, you know, the indication was that he knew where he was going all along. 29:57 I w- I, it, it's fascinating to me that they were able to keep that quiet, where they were just like, "It's Philly. All these people can talk all they want about Golden State. 30:05 They can talk all they want about a reunion, you know, in Miami or one in Cleveland. In the end, this is all he ever, this was in his sights the whole time." 30:13 So what, what it does say, though, is that he is, he wants a ring And so the career of LeBron James, when we finally, you know, when it's finally said and done, one of the, you know, one of the headlines of the career is not only the championships, but just how different he was from players of yesteryear, right? 30:32 Yep. My childhood. The Michael Jordans of the world who stayed on one team, the Larry Birds, the Magic Johnsons of the world. LeBron James, what is this? From Cleveland to Miami. Help me out here. 30:42 Cleveland to Miami to- Cleveland... uh, Cleveland to Los Angeles, now to Philly. Yep. A peripatetic-like career, you know? He just was that kind of player. 30:54 So we'll see if he gets another ring in Philly, where the odds must be a-movin', I would imagine. I think- Do you think this moves him? I do. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah, it should be. It should be. 31:03 Yeah, we'll have to check in on that. The, i-it's a really, it's a really interesting team that you're talking about there. Now, I don't know, 'cause that, that's the... You know, we still don't know. 31:12 We still don't know, how does Jaylen Brown really feel about being on the 76ers, right? That, that's right. And having to play with a Joel Embiid. Having to maybe be a secondary option when the, you know... 31:22 Well, part of the Jaylen Brown outrage was he wants to be the guy. He wants to be the guy. Yeah. Well, okay, now he's on a team with Joel Embiid, and LeBron James, and Tyrese Maxey. 31:32 You are not the guy, you're just one of the guys right now. Well, and well, you bring up a great point, too, which is Jaylen Brown becomes a Sixer. 31:41 Let's say he was excited about it, but let's say he also had no inkling that LeBron was headed that way, and now he has to deal with that? Yep. Yep. As part of it? Uh- Pretty interesting... 31:52 the other, and the other side of that, though, is does it say something? I, I think it probably does. I think it says something about when we had this whole Jaylen Brown debate, and did the Celtics do the right thing? 32:03 Oh, okay, maybe some of the advanced analytics wanna tell you this guy has, has some problems, and he's not that good of a player, and he's overrated. 32:11 And Joel Embiid has all these health problems and can't stay on the court. LeBron choosing to play with those guys does say something to me, Gil. 32:18 Like, that's, that is a nod of confidence from one of the best players, uh, out there of all time. 32:24 Well, he, it, it's, I mean, look, again, we're just speculating, but it just appears very clearly to me that he's just like, "I only have one goal." Mm-hmm. Right? Oh, totally. I don't wanna go home. 32:35 I don't wanna have any reunions. I want to go to the team that I feel has the best chance to get me to an NBA Finals and to win said NBA Finals. And he must have thought that it was Philly over Miami, even with Giannis. 32:51 Clearly it was an Eastern Conference team over a Western Conference team to begin with, and this was apparently the team that, uh, this was apparently the team that he had his sights in all along. Yeah. 33:00 By the way, Super Jerk has, uh, has, uh, chimed in on Twitter. He says, "I was only kidding about LeBron," so there you go. Eh, nah, Super Jerk- LeBron news, uh-... this timing was perfect for you, man. I'm very- Yes... 33:09 I'm very glad this all got cleaned up today for you. All right, Knicks pl- over at DraftKings, Knicks are still your favorite in the Eastern Conference at plus 320. 76ers, down to plus 350. 33:22 They were at, they were at four to one. That just blinked on me, though, down to plus 350. They'll be, they'll be the short shot by the end of the day. I think you're right. Ooh, this is fun to watch. At Draft... 33:33 750 yesterday, so 750 down to four to one. And guess what, Gil? Down to plus 250. This is fun to watch. Bang. Your Eastern Conference favorite now- That was even-... the Philadelphia 76ers... 33:44 for-forget, forget by the end of the day. Before the end of the paragraph. [laughs] Right, exactly. Yeah. Right? Yeah. Uh, let's see. Where are they moving in the, to win the NBA Finals? Spurs and Thunder both plus 270. 33:55 Still Knicks are ahead of the 76ers at nine to one. We'll see if that changes. Sixers, 10 to one at DraftKings right now. I, you know what? I think that move is correct, man. 34:05 'Cause again, no matter- I think it is, too... what you feel about LeBron, yeah, no matter what you feel about LeBron, him as a third or fourth option is still a heck of a deal, you know? Two years, $8 million. 34:16 Uh, per Shams Charania, LeBron James, if you're just tuning in, has made his decision public. Not the first decision of his career, as we, as we very well know, but he's made this latest one public. 34:26 He is headed to the Philadelphia 76ers. Any i- any idea, do you remember where the Sixers were in prediction markets number-wise- Well, I, they were-... for his next team? 34:37 This, I mean, this has been moving all around like crazy the past week. I mean, they were, I think they had gotten as- Right... 34:42 short as two to one, three to one-ish, and you probably saw them as long as 20 to one at some point the last week. You know, it's been- That's right... it's been madness. 34:50 It's, it's an impossible, it's an impossible question to answer, 'cause those things bounced back and forth through so many teams. LeBron James, a Philadelphia 76er. 35:00 Um, you know how like when players go to different teams, you're like, "Wow, I can't even picture that guy in that uniform"? I can totally picture this. Yeah, I kinda can, too. He fits right into that. Yeah. 35:08 Uh, we'll come back. Uh, that latest news was not anticipated. We will talk NFC West on the other side. It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. 35:16 [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. 35:37 Back on the Numbers Game. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin. For those of you who, uh, just missed it, uh, LeBron James has made his announcement. He is signing with the Philadelphia 76ers for, uh, two years, $8 million. 35:53 Two years, $8 million, per Shams Charania of ESPN. Uh, and Kelly, the people have spoken. The best listeners in the game have spoken. 35:59 Johnny Ringo, "The real breaking news: Philadelphia basketball team has, uh, has to change the name to the Philadelphia Load Managers, as the name Floppers was already trademarked." 36:09 Steve The Proxy, "Flopping rule's about to be enforced now with the two biggest offenders on the same team. Flop City 76ers. #Embiid #LeBron." Um, Patrick Kelly. 36:21 So the question discussed at length now, is LeBron the greatest player since 1906? [laughs] It seems like, it seems like he has played on a higher number of different teams than he really has. I'm with you on that. 36:33 And then Super Jerk, Super Jerk, you've reached your, uh, tweet quota for the morning, by the way. He says, "I cannot believe this decision. This actually might be worth watching now. This guy is a bum. 36:41 This isn't gonna work out." He had an adjective before bum, by the way. Yeah. Uh, Real Knicks, "I'm a diehard Sixers fan living 45 minutes from LeBron's house in Akron. 36:52 I'll never say no to signing LeBron, but I honestly don't see how he fits on this team. But who cares? This starting lineup is stupid in a good way. Let's freaking go." Tom F, T for 3. 37:03 And your one concern was depth, right? Like, it just- Yeah... you're, you're adding that level of player at $8 million. It's a steal. Tom F, T for 3, "I had LeBron at 4% to the Sixers when he opted out. 37:14 It toggled between 9 to 19% for the past couple weeks." There you go. "10, nine, eight, 76ers." There you go. 37:22 Um, Mike Alvarez, "Sometimes I think you added the third hour because you were tired of news breaking after the show ended at 9:00 PM Eastern, so now you do 50% more show and you get breaking news at 8:40 Pacific." 37:33 Um- Sh- Sham's working hard this morning. I, I noticed that as well Yeah. The time was very, uh, I was very aware of what time we got that at, yep. Who's, who's the biggest loser in him going to the Sixers, Kelly? 37:44 I think it's the Heat. I think it's the Heat. I, I mean, it's the, a little bit of the you not only did you not get him, right? He goes to another Eastern Conference rival. 37:51 But e- I think the one that I was coming around on with Miami a little bit with, with him, Gil, is, like, okay, we can say it about the Sixers. You could say it about the Heat. 38:01 Like, maybe it's not the cleanest fit ever, but, like, LeBron James for that little money fits anywhere. 38:06 And the one thing that Miami, everybody's gonna talk about the shooting, the, uh, the lack of shooting and w- that they need more of it, but, like, I think the other thing that's gone a little under the radar is just facilitators, right? 38:18 Like, you are, you are entrusting a lot, uh, a lot to Giannis, Davion Mitchell, and these guys to really get the offense going. 38:25 And w- I think LeBron w- would've been a really, really good fit from that standpoint with Miami. So I, I'm, I think, I think they're probably the biggest losers. 38:35 And then next down the list is probably, like, Knicks and Pistons of just, man, the East got a whole lot better real quick over these past few months in the, uh, for you two guys that were maybe considered the best teams in the Eastern Conference. 38:49 Yeah. More on LeBron throughout the day on the network- Mm-hmm... here at VSAN. Um, if, if in fact we don't have any more to say about it between now [laughs] now and the end of the show. Maybe we will. Yeah, guess what? 38:59 Um- You have a, one Nick Whalen on after us and one Jonathan Von Tobel on after him. That's right. I have a feeling those two gentlemen are gonna have things to say. Absolutely. 39:08 Um, let's talk NFC West 'cause it's the one division in the NFC we have not talked about this week, Kelly. Um, Aaron Schatz, FDN Almanac, been reading that extensively. 39:17 Mike Tenere did the, uh, did the pieces on the NFC West. Let's just start with the Seattle Seahawks, the defending Super Bowl champions. Uh, they were the fourth best team in modern NFL history based on DVOA last year. 39:32 The 2026 Seahawks only f- uh, fell behind the legendary teams of the '91 Washington Redskins, the 2007 New England Patriots, and the 1985 Chicago Bears. That's it. That's the list. 39:48 And then it's the 2026 Seattle Seahawks per DVOA. Aaron Schatz and crew takes that all the way back to 1977. 39:55 Uh, and if you remember, and I think this is always good to keep in mind, Kelly, when we talk about NFL stuff in the preseason, a year ago, let's think about how we thought about the Seahawks. Oh, yeah. 40:06 A lot of people had the Cardinals projected ahead of them. Gil. Gil. You, you did, right? I had a bet for the Seattle Seahawks to finish last in the NFC West. That's right. That's right. And you were not alone. 40:20 Their defense was good, right? Mm, yeah. Uh, Mike McDonald, defensive q- you know, defensive coach. That's why they hired him as the head coach. They were, they were the 10th best in DVOA coming into last season. 40:32 In, in the- Clint Kubiak was the new OC... in the thought on that bet. Yeah. Yeah, real, real quick, Gil. Uh, just the thought on that, yeah. Where we were last year at this time, it was the NFC West is stacked. 40:41 I thought Seattle was just going to be the last man out a- with, like, seven wins or something like that, right? And it just, the Cardinals ended up sucking. Right. Seattle ended up being amazing. 40:50 So the defense was good coming into last year. Clint Kubiak was the new offensive coordinator. His results had been mixed prior to being hired as the offensive coordinator with Seattle. 40:59 And then we all know how we felt about Sam Darnold heading into last year. Yep. Right? Like, he was still the guy that was gonna choke at the end. 41:06 And then Jaxon Smith-Njigba, remember the big thing was like, wow, they're making him their number one, right? They got rid of DK Metcalf. We don't know if this kid can be a number one wideout. Mm-hmm. I mean, he's good. 41:15 So they start out the season, and remember, like, their first five games they were three and two. You know, it wasn't that spectacular. Um, but then from that point forward, it just became the Seahawks show. 41:29 And what their story was, was that they would just sort of, you know, they specialized in slow motion blowouts, basically. 41:37 Uh, their defense would hel- hold opponents scoreless or with very few points, and then Darnold, they, they'd, you know, they'd accumulate field goals, and then as the game went on, by the end of the game, they were blowing out teams. 41:47 And of those teams that I just mentioned historically that were better than them per DVOA, it's actually the, the biggest comparison might be to the '91 Skins in the sense that you had a quarterback, Mark Rypien in '91, Sam Darnold last year, where they're both, "I don't know if this guy's really that good." 42:02 Um, they were coming off of legacies, right? The Skins had had great teams with Theismann and Riggins in the '80s, and the Seahawks had the Legion of Boom team. So, like, you were in those shadows also. 42:15 Um, but really if you look forward to this year, a lot of people think the Rams are the better team, but what's there not to like about the Seahawks? All of their top performers on defense are back, right? 42:27 Uh, Kobe Bryant, Reek Woolen Devin Witherspoon, DeMarcus Lawrence, Byron Murphy. Um, oh, excuse me. P- pardon me. Uh, Kobe Bryant and Enrique Willen are the only two who are, who are gone, but everybody else is there. 42:39 Devin Witherspoon, DeMarcus Lawrence, Byron Murphy, uh, Leonard Williams, Ernest Jones, Nick Elam-Wari, Drake Thomas. All those guys are back. Their special teams was awesome last year. 42:50 Uh, the only guy they're losing on offense of any import is Kenneth Walker, but analytics people will tell you that's easily replaceable. Running back is. 42:57 Um, this team should be great, and we should allow for the possibility, Kelly, that even after winning the title, we still don't think of them in the way we ought to. Mm-hmm. 43:09 And maybe they are a sneaky good candidate for a repeat. There i- Truly. Uh, absolutely I'm with you. I, I mean, honestly, I think this NFC West conversation is, is relatively [laughs] quick anyways. 43:19 I think Mike McD- McDonald's awesome. I think he's one of the best coaches in the NFL. You and I had Coach of the Year bets on him last year. That did not get home, obviously, but I, I think he's right up there. 43:28 I think that when we talk about them, we talk about the Rams, we talk about the 49ers, I have zero interest in an under on any of these teams. I think they are that good. 43:37 Uh, and yeah, I think the Seahawks, uh, and this defense could, could very well run things back. I've got the, w- very little bets for me in this division, Gil. I don't think I'll have anything. 43:46 The one related to Seattle, though, man, it hap- I brought it up right after the draft. I keep staring at it. I'm surprised I haven't pulled the trigger yet. Ja'Darian Price for Rookie of the Year. 43:55 I mean, Kenneth Walker's out. He's gonna be splitting that backfield with Zach Charbonnet. Like, I... That one feels... I, I mean, they're gonna wanna establish that running game. 44:03 I don't know that Charbonnet has proven enough yet that he's gonna be able to take over that, the, the largest part of that workload. So I, Price, I, I have a feeling I'm gonna end up on that bet. 44:14 And listen, the Rams are gonna be great. The Rams, it, it's one A and one B between- Yes... the Seahawks and Rams. 44:20 Pick your poison in terms of not only this division, but ob- obviously the league itself, the conference, and maybe even the league itself. The team, again, that I wanna focus on is the Niners for my bet. 44:30 I do have a season win total over play on them. 44:33 I gave all kinds of reasons, including, you know, when I put it in the betting guide, which really comes down to there were, there were, like, three or four teams that lost more starter games to injury than the Niners, but nobody came close to the Niners, uh, in terms of who they lost to injury. 44:49 Their six highest paid players, Hall of Famers in some cases, certainly perennial all pros when you talk about Purdy and Kittle, uh, and Warner and Bosa on down the line. 45:02 Aiyuk obviously, uh, can be added to that list as well. 45:05 So they're getting, with the exception of Aiyuk, they're getting everybody back, and I just wanna emphasize again about Brock Purdy, 'cause people seem to have this idea that Brock Purdy is not a great quarterback. 45:16 And I'll just say it again, per DVOA, Kelly, Brock Purdy was the second-best quarterback passing DVOA in the NFL last year behind Matt Stafford, and I really do think this is how, this is, he's why people most prominently, if, if you're a Niners detractor, that's the reason you, you probably cite more than any as to why you don't believe in them. 45:38 If the Rams and Seahawks, in whatever order, are the best two teams in football and the best two teams in this division, and I think they are, the Niners ain't that far behind. 45:46 They still won 12 games last year with all of those injuries and won a playoff game. I agree. So it's incredible, man. Yep. What a division this is. Add Mike Evans on there, man, a go-to target- Yes... for, for Brock. 45:58 I, I think Brock could have a big time season. I'm with you. Cardinals are another story. Maybe we'll talk about them another time. Yeah. Jacoby Brissett. Yeah. You go. Yeah. We like Jacoby. 46:08 Uh, Tyler Shoemaker, college football season win totals and WNBA future next on a Numbers Game right here at VSiN.
