Search
Login
Sign Up
Jul 24, 2026
A Numbers Game | July 24, 2026 | Hour 3
A Numbers Game | July 24, 2026 | Hour 3
00:00
45:22
1×
Transcript
0:00
[upbeat rock music] This is VSiN, the sports betting network. The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:18
Hour number three of a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander in San Francisco.
0:29
Kele Beidelman, chilling in Las Vegas at the Circa Studios, or I should say the VSiN Studios at Circa Resort Casino. Um, boy, LeBron ate into our NFC West preview. That was rude.
0:41
Yeah, I don't know- That was kind of rude of him... I don't know about you, but I didn't have that much more on the NFC West any- anyways. Three really good teams, one not great team.
0:49
Uh, guess what people wanna talk about? We get tweets, beating the books. Spence, @SpenceCC, "Does LeBron really move the needle? Will he put any team over the top? I say no.
0:59
So if he had asked me, I would have advised Cleveland. Feel-good story, could have tied up his career nicely, and they're good. He didn't call me, though," to point that out. Uh, Darren Frazier, "LeBron who?
1:10
Only a true narcissist ruins the middle of my baseball season on a day when both Tarik Skubal and Cam Schlittler are pitching. Enough already. Let's get back to baseball.
1:18
Beautiful weather in the city and Gilly's vacation. Enjoy, Gilly." Thank you, Darren. Appreciate it. Chance Copperpot, "I don't know what all this LeBron stuff is. Just keep on talking about the Seahawks, please."
1:27
This is so great. #GoHawks. This is so great. It's- Isn't this great, Gil? 'Cause th- this is how, this is how- [laughs]... sports media works, right? Like, everybody's got- Yep...
1:34
you, I hope if you listen to this show regularly, you realize that we read, like, every tweet that comes in. So when there's- Yes...
1:39
90 tweets talking about how much you hate LeBron, it, this is how LeBron becomes a conversation. And in the interest of reading every tweet, Superjerk, uh, says to me, "I'll let you know when I've reached my quota."
1:49
[laughs] You, okay. All right, Superjerk. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, Tyler Shoemaker, I don't know if he has thoughts on LeBron, but he certainly has thoughts on college football and the WNBA.
2:03
You can follow him on Twitter at TShoeIndex, which is really what his rating system is, uh, named colloquially as well. It's Tyler Shoemaker, everybody, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Tyler?
2:14
Hey, good morning, guys. Good to be back. Oh, you're wearing your, uh, is that, again, is this the Lakers yellow or is this the, uh, the Monday Night Football yellow blazer or is this- No, yeah...
2:24
the Hall of Fame jacket? [laughs] Got hired by the Chargers. This is not the Hall of Fame jacket.
2:28
Yeah, I mean, honestly, you know, WNBA All-Stars in Chicago this weekend, I guess this is kind of a Chicago Sky colorway- Oh, there we go... a little bit. Yeah. Okay. There you go. All right.
2:37
A- any, does, does LeBron to the Sixers move the needle for a guy who's, like, super focused on certain sports? Does that m- make you interested at all or no?
2:46
I, I'm, I'm interested, and I, you know, frankly, I saw the graphic of him in the black, uh, Sixers jersey, and I think that, that jersey looks sweet. So, you know, I'm, I'm interested. Yeah.
2:54
I, I don't have a, a ton of thoughts on it, but I'm, I'm interested. Okay. Um, speaking of the WNBA then, as you said, they're on All-Star break.
3:02
Um, this league just, w- uh, step back from your bets for a second 'cause we'll get to your thoughts on the futures here, on the futures market, but this league just keeps getting better and better as a viewing vehicle, as a betting vehicle.
3:15
Is that correct? Todd Wishnep was talking about this the other day on the show. Yeah, ab- absolutely. I, I think the, the product's only gonna continue to get better.
3:24
You know, there's more eyeballs on it, which then creates, you know, the demand for the product to get better.
3:29
Now that, you know, under the new CBA, they're making so much more money, now that's gonna inspire a whole new generation of young girls to work on their game and get better, and I, I think it's gonna continue to, to expand.
3:39
And like you said, you know, the watchability standpoint, I think, is, is better than it has been and is gonna continue to get better.
3:46
All right, let's look at the, uh, let's look at the futures market where it's, I, I would, I would imagine this is a, a more teams possibly winning than in past years, but I don't know, maybe the Aces are just laying low.
3:58
How do you feel about this? Yeah, I mean, looking at the odds board this morning, Fever plus 500 to make the finals, uh, kinda jumped out to me. They're tied for first in the East right now with the Dream.
4:10
Um, they're actually ahead of the Dream i- in my power ratings, but the Dream are priced at about, uh, plus 415, so I'm not sure why the Fever are plus 500.
4:19
So to me, that jumped out as, as maybe a value bet there on, on Caitlin Clark and the Fever. Fever to make the title game at five to one, you prefer over the Fever to win it all at 18 to one.
4:31
Yeah, yeah, just based on where the, the market pricing is, uh, I felt like that, that jumped off as a, as a better value play. Is there a, a value play you like to win it all?
4:43
So I did look at, uh, the Liberty plus 750 to win it all. Circa's sitting at plus 265, um, but the recreational books are all way, way longer odds than that, so, uh, I saw Liberty plus 750 out there.
4:57
I would, I would nibble on that. I, I mean, they were the preseason number one clearly in the power ratings. Um, they've not been very good here the last, uh, three, four weeks.
5:07
Um, but part of that is, is injuries as well. Satou Sabally has, has been in and out. Uh, Marine Johannes has been out. So I think at full strength they're as good as anybody, so I, I think that's worth a shot.
5:18
And then the Aces at plus 400, they've also been relatively unimpressive lately. They just lost to the Mystics the other night. Um, but again, Circa plus 265 on that, but some of the rec books are at plus 400.
5:29
So I think, I think the Aces at plus 400's a good price. Yeah.
5:34
It's, um, you j- you do wonder about the Aces 'cause obviously they had a, uh, they were very middling before they went on an amazing tear last year that catapulted them all the way to the title eventually.
5:44
Last thing on this, uh, because we wanna get some college football, but Caitlin Clark, she has the big 45/10 game.
5:51
She's still got the highest, uh, five, the five most highest rated games in terms of television viewing ratings this year involve Caitlin Clark. Is she still the straw that stirs the drink in the WNBA?
6:06
Or is there some ding to that? In other words, uh, have we, are we drifting a little away from the it's, it's all about Caitlin Clark theme that seemed to exist more last year? Yeah, I think so.
6:22
I mean, she's now in her third year. I think the first two years were much more about her specifically than, than anyone else.
6:28
But I mean, as we talked about, you know, you've got like Olivia Miles in the league, Paige Bueckers is in the league. You got a lot of exciting young players that are, you know, as good or better than her.
6:37
So you know, I, I think she still deserves credit for kind of being the, the pioneer or this generation's Michael Jordan as far as getting the eyeballs on the sport to begin with.
6:47
But now you're starting to see, you know, from a talent standpoint, there are, there are a lot of other girls in the league that can play. Yeah. It's, it's, it is super enjoyable to watch.
6:56
Let's have some college football season win total bets. Um, for whatever reason, it's been sort of an SEC themed show today and will continue to be so as we, uh, move forward.
7:05
You have a thought, not at the top of the SEC, but you have a thought towards the bottom on Arkansas. There's, they're lined at four and a half. Yeah, I do. This, this number's come down.
7:14
Um, I still like under four and a half wins for them.
7:17
Uh, my numbers project 4.3, so you know, at a glance, that doesn't seem like a ton of value, but when I look at their schedule game by game kind of in a vacuum and look at the win probabilities, there's only two games that are what I call likely wins, which means they have a win probability of 60% or higher.
7:35
So okay, so there's two wins. Well let, let's say they take care of business in those. They have 10 likely losses, which is a win, win probability of 40% or lower.
7:44
Um, so that means they've gotta way overachieve and win three games that they're, you know, a touchdown plus underdog in.
7:52
Um, I think they're on average about a seven and a half point underdog against FBS competition this year. Uh, and my numbers give that about a 56% chance to stay under the number.
8:02
Yeah, I'm looking at the, uh, the SEC conference odds where, uh, again, Texas and Georgia of course are the, uh, the favorites, the co-short shots, if you will.
8:12
At the very bottom there, Kentucky 150 to one, and then Mississippi State and Arkansas both 200 to one. Uh, Tyler going under on the dogs there, uh, excuse me, on the hogs there, under four and a half.
8:24
Colorado, we are two years removed, two years removed from all the hype of Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter, and all the hype that, uh, was with the Buffaloes couple years ago.
8:36
Obviously they, those guys are, have themselves a pro season under their belts now. But Deion Sanders still there as head coach of the Buffaloes. You are also going under on them at four and a half.
8:47
Yeah, I mean, D- Deion's saying all the right things this off-season. You know, I, I know his health has been a problem in the past. He says he's feeling great, so you know, that's encouraging if you're a Colorado fan.
8:56
But from the numbers that, that I have to operate with here in the pre-season from a power rating standpoint and what their s- their schedule looks like, I again project 4.3 wins here with only one likely win,
9:08
eight likely losses, and three coin flips.
9:10
So even if they win the, the game they're supposed to and happen to win all three coin flips, that still only puts them at four wins, so they're gonna have to way overachieve to go over that four and a half.
9:21
Uh, my numbers give that about a 56% chance to stay under as well. You surprised Coach Sanders is still there? No, just, I mean, for a program like Colorado, I don't think they can be too picky about wins and losses.
9:35
I think he moves the needle from a interest standpoint, and I think if you're Colorado that's, that's really all you can ask for. He's made them relevant, at least in terms of the college football conversation.
9:46
You know, they're not, not gonna be in title contention by any means, obviously. Um, but I, I think he makes them at least interesting and, and if you're Colorado, that's all you can ask for. Yeah.
9:54
I think a lot of people predicted he'd be gone by now, maybe even right after his, his kid graduated. Yeah. Let's go to the Sun Belt. We have a listener, Derek Gwyn, who is always tweeting us about Southern Miss.
10:05
Um, they [laughs], they're lined at three and a half. This is the Tyler Shoemaker let's pick on bad team segment. Uh, under on Southern Miss, I'm guessing?
10:15
Under on Southern Miss as well, and, and the funny thing is I came on this show this time last year and gave the over on, on Southern Miss. I was really high on them last year when they brought in Charles Huff.
10:24
Uh, but now he is again gone. They're, they're going over another, um, turnover with the coaching staff and, and the roster. Charles Huff now at Memphis.
10:33
I project three and a, 3.3 wins for Southern Miss, but again, when you look at it in a vacuum, only one likely win, 10 likely losses, and only one coin flip.
10:43
So if they win the, the game they're supposed to and win their coin flip, that's still only two wins. So now you gotta find two more wins, you know, with win probabilities below 40%. I just don't see it.
10:54
Uh, my numbers give them a 58% chance to stay under this number. All right, under on Arkansas, four and a half wins. Under on Colorado, four and a half wins. Under on Southern Miss, three and a half wins.
11:05
Uh, Tyler, Tissue Index, you write extensively at vsin.com. Your Twitter hand- your Twitter handle is Tissue Index. Can folks access your ratings or is this just something you incorporate in your articles?
11:19
So I, in years past I've, I've put out my ratings in my independent guides that I put out on my website at tissueindex.com.
11:26
I do still put out the projections that you can access, but I don't make my ratings, uh, public just because it, it, uh, I've gone to a more matchup based projection system and it just creates a lot of questions when my actual ratings are out there.
11:38
But I'm always happy if you, if you tweet me @tissueindex, always happy to give you my rating on a team or let you know where teams stand. I'm not, not trying to necessarily hide it, uh, just- Yeah...
11:47
trying to prevent, prevent as, as many, uh, as much confusion as I can. He's a man of the people. Thank you, Tyler, appreciate it. Yes sir. Thank you, guys. Let's talk some more SEC football on the other side.
11:59
It's a numbers game. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real, mindset alone doesn't get bets home.
12:07
Pros win because they've got the tools, the data, and the discipline, and now so can you. VSiN Pro gives you access to the same real-time insights the sharps use.
12:15
No secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with VSiN Pro.
12:26
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:40
Winners Circle Proxy and VSiN are giving away two incredible prize packages that'll put two lucky fans into the world's biggest football contest for free.
12:48
One winner gonna receive a $1,000 entry into Circus Survivor, and another will win $1,000 entry into Circa Millions.
12:54
Both winners will also receive a full season Winners Circle Proxy service, a VSiN studio tour, and a free month of VSiN Pro. Enter by this Sunday. Actually not this Sunday, next Sunday, August 2nd.
13:05
For your chance to win, visit winnerscircleproxy.com/vsin to enter today. That's winnerscircleproxy.com/vsin.
13:13
Gil Alexander, um, for those who missed it, earlier this hour, uh, or actually towards the end of last hour I should say, LeBron James made his announcement.
13:22
Uh, he will go to the Philadelphia 76ers on a two-year, $8 million contract. That might have been the most surprising thing of all, uh, in all of this. So two years, eight million. LeBron calls his shot.
13:34
Not the Heat, not a reunion with the Cavs, not the Warriors, the Sixers, to join Tyrese Maxey, Jalen Brown, Joel Embiid and crew, uh, in the City of Brotherly Love.
13:45
So that's the deal, and, uh, LeBron actually tweeted about this, Kelly. Yeah, he did a series of tweets coming from LeBron.
13:53
The first one, I, I won't read through all these, Gil, but I thought the first one was, did stand out. Uh, "I thought I was done when the season ended.
14:00
I wasn't ready to announce it, and I knew I needed some time to really decide, but I was pretty sure I played my last game.
14:06
I was honest at that last press conference when I said I needed to look at myself and decide if I love this game. I still truly love this game, and I have more to give." He goes on from there, @KingJames.
14:16
You can go check out a few more tweets. I, I think the rest you would expect. "Yeah, I'm excited to join Philadelphia," that kind of stuff, right?
14:23
[laughs] I don't, but, like, that was, I don't know that I thought we saw LeBron play his last game, and it, it really, I mean- No... that sounds like he was thinking pretty seriously about that.
14:33
I don't know why he, I don't know why he would not tell the truth there, right? Eh. Uh, who knows? Who knows? All we know is that- I-... he's headed to the Sixers, and it's pretty darn interesting...
14:41
wh- when we talk about him being, like, that fourth option or whatever now, and we're kind of laughing about that, right, is that really something, maybe that is connected a little bit, right?
14:50
Maybe it is of the, hey, the, um, you know, we're gonna talk about, uh, game management and all these things and load management with it, with him.
14:58
Maybe he did, maybe he wanted to go to a spot where he didn't have to do as much in the regular season. Maybe. I'm with Chad Lasso on Twitter. Chad Lasso says, "People are always so bitter about LeBron. Just enjoy it.
15:09
LeBron for that price anywhere is a great fit." Totally. "Can't wait to see how it plays out." Yep. I'm with you, Chad. I am indeed. Uh, this gentleman is, uh, well, he wears a lot of hats.
15:19
You know, n- not just one, not two, even three. Uh, he covers the Houston Rockets. He also does the Houston Astros pregame. Uh, excuse me, the Houston R-, uh, Astros pregame show. Yes, that's correct.
15:28
So Rockets in basketball, Astros in baseball, and, uh, he was at SEC Media Days, a Locked On SEC host. It's Chris Gordy, uh, who joins us now. You can follow him on Twitter @ChrisGordy, G-O-R-D-Y. Chris, good morning.
15:43
How you doing, man? Little tired, guys, but, uh, all good. Good to be on with you guys. Yeah, that's crazy news with LeBron, uh, picking a team. Finally over. [laughs] Finally, finally over. That's right, yeah.
15:55
Let's, let's, uh, let's put your Rockets hat on first. From a f- f- you know, from your basketball brain perspective, move the needle for you? Yeah. I mean, uh, at least from a Rockets perspective, it's nice.
16:07
I, I'm always good with all the all-stars going to the East. Get out of the West, make the West a little bit easier. As we know, the, the Rockets stumbled against the Lakers and lost to them in the first round last year.
16:17
So, uh, you know, KD was awesome, but now you get Fred VanVleet back healthy, Steven Adams. So it seems like the Rockets only have to worry about the Thunder and the Spurs in the West, and that's saying a lot.
16:28
They're still two [laughs] pretty damn strong teams. But at least the Lakers, I think, take a big hit with, with LeBron and, and all those pieces officially gone.
16:35
But the East gets more jumbled, and now the Knicks, you wanna defend that title, man, that's a, that's a damn good Sixers team you're looking at now. Chris, we're gonna, we're gonna come back to you here.
16:44
Your audio is a little, I believe the technical term is janky. Crackly. So we're gonna come back to you. Yeah. Yeah, crackly. Yeah. Poppy.
16:50
[laughs] Uh, so we're gonna, we're gonna ask, uh, Chris about, uh, the Astros and the trade deadline, and then, uh, he was just at SEC Media Day, get his thoughts on the SEC.
16:59
But I mean, I think, I, I think that's the thing, by the way. Uh, it, it's people, again, there's always gonna be the crowd. And, and listen, I understand.
17:07
I'm part of it too, where it's like, okay, just make your decision, dude. Talking about LeBron. Just make your decision already. So it's here. He finally did. We can all move on.
17:16
But now that he has, this is, if I were s- if I was to have ranked the most interesting places he could have landed, for me, Kelly, this is actually, this would be one, two with Miami, right?
17:29
Like, I think Miami would've been fascinating. Huh.
17:31
I agree with you that he probably could've contributed more in Miami than on this team, but just as far as, like, a true title run, because you're in the Eastern Conference, uh, this is pretty legit to me.
17:43
Like, again, as a third and fourth option, of course. This is, this is super interesting. I didn't find Cleveland that interesting. I didn't think he'd make a difference there.
17:52
I just never did, and I didn't think anywhere el- I... Like, the Warriors goes without saying. Any Western Conference destination wasn't gonna matter.
17:59
Well, I think for, well, I think the where, where's, which team could benefit the most, where could he have the most impact, different conversations, right? I, I think of, of what we're talking about right now.
18:09
But what do I find most interesting? Very subjective, right? I, I don't f- Yeah... I don't find Philadelphia or Cleveland all that interesting at all.
18:16
I, I think Philadelphia, for all the sa- kind of similar reasons that you're saying about Cleveland, it's just, it, it's a jam pack, a jammed team already full of talent. Like, where does he really come...
18:27
I mean, I think, I think- That's, that's why it's so interesting to me, yeah. Oh, okay. For that very reason. Okay. Yeah. Okay, so for opposite reasons, then.
18:32
Like, I would've loved to have seen him playing all those minutes, uh, uh, with Steph Curry or on the Minnesota Timberwolves with A- you know, with Ant- You know what?... Edwards and LaMelo.
18:41
I'm glad you brought up Minnesota because- Or playing with Jokic, right? Like playing with- Yeah... Jokic and seeing those basketball minds play together would've been a lot of fun for me. You're right.
18:50
Minnesota would've been pretty darn interesting in the west. I don't know that it would've mattered ultimately- Me either... but that would've been interesting. Yeah.
18:56
Um- I mean, how does he play with those two, with the two young guys, right? Ant, LaMelo. I mean m- I mean, I think, I think there's an opportunity he could've helped groom those guys into pretty special players.
19:06
Have the odds moved even more since- Yeah... when we first spoke about this? Just pulled these all up, so I'm gonna go book to book to book for you. How about this? Uh, Eastern Conference odds.
19:13
Back at DraftKings, we are back to the Knicks being the favorite, uh, at, so this has been bet back and forth. Plus 330 is New York right now, Philadelphia plus 350.
19:24
Over at FanDuel, it is plus 330 for the Knicks, 76ers plus 390, Celtics five to one. So they are kinda settling in as this number, uh, the second shot on the board.
19:34
Over at MGM, Knicks plus 350, Sixers four to one, Celtics five to one. Calci, S- uh, 76ers are your favorite plus 295. Over at Calci, Knicks plus 398, Celtics plus 455.
19:48
Do you read into anything that at Calci they're the favorite? So let, let's talk about that for a second just from a betting standpoint. Yeah.
19:55
Does that indicate in any way, maybe I'm ju- you know, maybe I'm generalizing here, but does it indicate in any way to you that the
20:04
sophistication, let's put it, of those on Calci, who tend to be more of the Robinhood, Wall Street guys, right? Mm-hmm. Their sports betting acumen tends to be less than that of the general sportsbook betting population.
20:22
Yeah, I, I think it's, uh, I, I think that's an interesting question, and is there a tell here or not from, from one book, or not book, o- one place being off from the others?
20:32
'Cause these sportsbooks do seem, they seem to have settled for now, right? This is still quick. When did we get this news? 30, 45 minutes ago. Um- Yeah...
20:40
still quick, but, like, the sportsbooks, at least the three I just read, at le- one, two, three are now pretty s- uh, solidly in order. And yeah, prediction markets not so much. Yeah. I, the, the, I don't know.
20:52
I don't know if there's anything to that, but I just found it interesting- Yeah, I'm-... as you said it off the cuff. I'm, I'm interested to see where this win total moves.
20:59
They were 48 and a half as of yesterday, Philadelphia. This was, you know, this is part of the reasons we went over to some of these NBA win total bets the other day.
21:07
Part of the reason I went under on the Pistons was kinda had a feeling LeBron would end up somewhere in the east.
21:12
And I don't know how much that will affect things, but, you know, makes things tougher for the Pistons, n- definitely not easier.
21:18
The other thing that, I means, that is big in the NBA right now, Gil, with this news, is we've still been waiting on this kinda last wave of free agents to get settled.
21:27
The, I think this is what needed to happen before we start seeing where the rest of these guys are gonna go, what's gonna happen with a Jalen Duren, a Peyton Watson, um, geez, James Harden, Draymond Green technically out there.
21:40
Pen- uh, Benedict Mathurin. We'll see where all these guys end up now. He was h- he was holding the whole league up like Bryson DeChambeau was holding up the golf tournament the other- Exactly... day. Yeah. Yeah.
21:49
I, I don't know. I mean, again, I've said this a million times on this show, basketball's a f- you know, all sports are, are sort of great puzzles to solve.
21:57
Basketball is funny in the sense that, again, if you got Wilt out there, you know, with Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, and Oscar Robertson, doesn't mean you're going 82 and O. Mm-hmm. Right?
22:07
Doesn't mean you're scoring 300 points a game. There's an optimal efficiency to five guys on a basketball court.
22:13
If their, if their season win total was 48 and a half, does LeBron James in that alchemy, right, in that n- in that very nuanced alchemy that is a basketball team, five guys on a court, how many games does he really add to that team?
22:30
Is it a couple? Is it less than that? Is it more than that? I, I don't know, right? To me, my instinct is it's a couple. Yeah. Me too. No, me too.
22:41
That, that, that, mine as well, I think it's a great question though because we know how this works. I mean, the, the, someone with a name that big, right, making a move to Philadelphia.
22:53
Like, is there a wave of early overs that come in here through this weekend? Yeah, I wouldn't be shocked by that. So me and you might just be low just because of how much it's gonna get bet.
23:03
But yeah, I think it's probably a couple. Oh, oh, I'm not predicting where it's going. I'm just saying what does it probably mean- Yeah. Yeah... in the end. I agree with you. Yeah.
23:11
Um, that load management point is a, is an interesting one too. Maybe, maybe it is the team that sort of fills that as well. Right? Yeah. Like, "Oh, I'll just be ready for the playoffs." Yeah. You know?
23:19
Uh, we'll come back. Wyatt Tomchek, Brickyard 400, wrestling. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:27
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. The NFL preseason is only a couple weeks away, and the smart money is already moving lines.
23:43
Lock in our football special for just $175 before the price goes up next month. You'll get instant access to the VSiN NFL betting guide to help you attack futures, win totals, and player props.
23:53
Plus, we're including the new Fantasy Life fantasy football guide with over 425 player profiles, projections, and rankings to help you prep for your fantasy draft. Sign up now.
24:03
You'll get full VSiN pro access across every sport through the Super Bowl.
24:06
That includes daily best bets, real-time betting splits from DraftKings and Circa, AI-powered prop projections, and 24/7 video on the VSiN WATCH app. Head to vsin.com/subscribe now. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe.
24:18
Gil Alexander in San Francisco, Kelly Bidlin back there in Las Vegas at Circa. Uh, Kelly, we have a, uh, a tweet from, uh, numbers... Or what is it? Uh, number Juan Degen. Okay. Juan, J-U-A-N. Number Juan Degen.
24:32
He says, "What's this? No Fezzik on a Friday?" Yes, programming note, uh, no Fezzik today because, uh, he's taking his, uh, son to colleges I think here in the Bay somewhere, visiting.
24:43
He'll be back next week though, yes, with you? Yeah, we'll be back, uh- Okay... next week. Dustin and myself will be here.
24:49
We've got Matt Brown Monday through Thursday filling in for you, and then, uh, Dustin Friday into next week. Steve the Proxy says, "When do we get the Bronny decision presser?"
25:00
Which is also a question we haven't tackled yet since LeBron James made his announcement that he's gonna play with the Philadelphia 76ers. Where will Bronny go? It's a joke, by the way. Uh, okay.
25:09
We do have Wyatt Tomchek in the, uh, on deck in the, uh, dugout, ready to talk, uh, wrasslin' with us. And of course some, uh, some Brickyard 400. But we got the audio squared away here.
25:21
Uh, and we're thrilled to have, uh, back on the show once again, part two, Chris Gordy, Locked On SEC host. [laughs] Astros pregame host as well. Chris, glad to have you back, man.
25:32
Yeah, glad we could get that figured out. I was joking. I think I said something poor about Lane Kiffin yesterday, and I think he, uh, got in there and messed up my audio. [laughs] So good to be back.
25:41
Hold, hold the Lane Kiffin thought. I wanna, I wanna get, put your Astros hat on. I wanna ask one baseball question. You are the Astros pregame host on SportsTalk 790 AM.
25:49
The Astros right now as of this moment, boop, boop, boop, boop, boop, three and a half out of the final playoff position in the American League. We are also 10 days out, 10 days out from the trade deadline.
26:04
What will they do, Chris? Do we know 10 days out what they will do? Yeah, they're gonna make a move or two. Um, they, they have to.
26:14
Uh, you know, the interesting part is they come out of the All-Star break, they get swept by the Orioles, and all the fans are going, "Oh, blow it up. Let's just sell all our pieces." And then they- Right...
26:22
come back and sweep the Marlins, and now they're like, "We're p- playoff bound. Let's go. We're only two games back of the Rangers for the AL, ALS lead." So that's the crazy part is nobody's run away with this division.
26:33
Um, it has benefited them that they've been in this crappy division all year with the Rangers, the Mariners, you know, the, the, the A's. Nobody's really wanted to claim this thing.
26:41
And so they feel like they can still, you know, compete a- and lock up this division, make the playoffs. And look, the, the other part of this too, guys, is Joe Espada is on, is a lame duck manager.
26:51
He's on the last year of his deal. Dana Brown is a lame duck GM. He's on the last year of his deal. They have to make a move to save their jobs. They have to make the playoffs if they wanna stay with the Astros.
27:00
So expect Dana Brown. I think they're gonna add a starting arm and a, and another bat. And, and J- JJ Bleday is a name that's popped up, so we'll see what they do.
27:10
But I think they have to make a move, and I think they'll add a, a pitcher and a, and a, and a batter. So there it is. Astros, buyers here.
27:17
And you said it, uh, not only three and a half out of the wild card, but two games out of the division lead with, of course, the Mariners in between both the Rangers and the Astros.
27:26
All right, you're just coming off SEC Media Day, Chris. [laughs] This is, you alluded to Lane Kiffin. Uh, so let's just start there. I'll, I'll sort of lead you into it.
27:35
Anything newsworthy happen yesterday at SEC Media Day that you'd like to share? [laughs] Yeah, I mean, to, just to give everybody the, the, the tone of what it is, it's, you said SEC Media Day. It's SEC Media Days.
27:46
This thing drags out four- Yeah... days now when you got 16 teams spread out across an entire week. And they did a fantastic job. Tampa was a great host city.
27:55
It, it really, you know, it's not an SEC town, but it was nice being right there on the water. But yeah, everybody was looking forward to the last day. They, they knew what they were doing.
28:03
They staved S- saved Steve Sar- Sarkisian in Texas and LSU and Lane Kiffin for the last day. And Lane's a lightning rod, man. Everywhere he goes, he draws attention. And, you know, he knew what he was doing.
28:14
30 minutes in the room. He spent about three quarters of that filibustering and, and avoiding answering questions. [laughs] He only got asked four questions in the big room. Uh, I get it.
28:23
He's, he's facing the fire right now. He is the villain of college football. How, I mean, how do you view the SEC? We were talking earlier, uh, off air, 'cause you're an LSU grad, I believe you said, yes? Yep. LSU grad?
28:37
Yep. Yep. And so I was, you know, I, I was mentioning to you that what I've, was talking about earlier on the show a couple times actually was, okay, we're going to nine conference games.
28:45
There's gonna be, you know, Bill Connelly, who does SP+ over at, uh, the analytics over at ESPN, says the, he thinks that SEC teams will top out, the most he has in his simulation is like 9.8 wins.
28:57
Whether that happens or not, let's say Georgia exceed that, exceeds that. Who knows, uh, if anyone else does. But you thought probably a nine and three team on LSU first thing off the top of the dome.
29:07
I think you're probably right.
29:08
So we're gonna get into this situation where the committee at the end of the year, just projecting forward, they're gonna have to make a bunch of decisions on a bunch of SEC teams that are going to have dings, if you will, losses, based on the fact the SEC's just so darn competitive.
29:24
Do you believe the committee will value that strength of schedule ultimately or no? Well, they said last year they were gonna, they were gonna factor it in more, and yet they didn't. Um, you know- Right...
29:36
Texas obviously went nine and three, but Texas also had a bunch of top 25 wins. And then you look at a team like Indiana, who I think played what, one or two ranked teams all year and went one and one.
29:47
So, uh, or, or no, they were undefeated last year. Year prior, they played one ranked team and, and lost that one game to Ohio State, and they got in 'cause it was 11 and one.
29:54
And I just think that we've become so obsessed with the, the 12 and 0, 11 and one, 10 and two. Like anything worse than 10 and two, you can't get in the playoff. And I go, well, wait a minute.
30:02
Like we don't do this in college basketball. We get together in a room, and we talk about quad one wins, quad two wins, quad three wins. Oh, you lost to Duke in November. That was a good loss. You know what I mean?
30:12
Like we do that in basketball. Why do we not use the critical thinking in football? We just go, "Nope, you nine and three. You're out. You lost three games." [laughs] It's like, well- So true...
30:19
stop harping on the losses. Let's talk about wins. Who have you beaten?
30:23
And if you got four great resume wins, and this other team over here in the Big 10 that didn't play Ohio State or didn't play Michigan or didn't play Oregon, like why are we elevating that team?
30:32
So I think we need to talk about it. Not all schedules are created equal. I always say that. And, uh, man, we really need to use some critical thinking when, and look at who have you beaten.
30:41
And good wins should outweigh, um, you know, a loss in my opinion The other thing, of course, over the last few years with the SEC is even with getting into the 16, so 13 national titles from the SEC between the years 2006 and 2022.
30:56
Now, three Big 10 teams have won the titles in the last three years. In fact, if you, the, the two years of the 12 team college football playoffs, only two of the eight semifinal spots, Chris, for SEC teams.
31:10
So obviously, while that's an issue, so it's one of these leagues where it's like the floor is really high.
31:17
Um, I know by SP+, worst team has, has a better rating than the worst seven Big 10 schools, but the problem is the best team not as good as the three Big 10 schools. Who wins this ultimately? Is it Georgia? Is it Texas?
31:29
Is it somebody else that we don't see coming? Yeah, I think those are your two best bets, Georgia and Texas. In fact, the, the media poll just came out. The SEC media voted on it.
31:38
They've got Georgia winning the SEC with Texas getting the second most first place votes. So that's kind of what, what the SEC media thinks. I think Ole Miss is an interesting one to watch.
31:47
Trent Adchamble and Kejuan Lacey were awesome last year.
31:50
Yes, they lose Lane Kiffin and Charlie Weiss's play callers, but, you know, if, if Pete Golding can, can step his game up and do like he did in the postseason last year as the new head coach, I think Ole Miss has a chance.
32:01
And watch Oklahoma, guys. Ooh. Talking with John Mateer this off-season. He's improved his throwing motion, that, that thumb is completely healed. He's got a quicker, more compact release.
32:10
If Oklahoma's offense can catch up to their defense, it's a brutal schedule, don't get me wrong, but Oklahoma is kind of the dark horse team to keep an eye on this year. Talking to Chris Gordy of, uh, Locked On SEC.
32:22
He is the host there. I, I... Let me just, l- I'll ask what Kelly asked earlier, which is where, where are you on Arch after all this right now, heading into this season?
32:30
Which really is, you know, you wanna say it's like the referendum season, but as I pointed out earlier, he was the best quarterback in college football in terms of QBR from November on last year.
32:40
He does have this weakness of, a weakness, terrible inaccuracy throwing on the run. But you know how NFL teams are with quarterbacks, so he's gonna be a high draft pick barring a disaster. Where are you on this guy?
32:53
Well, I've caught, I have caught Arch mania. I am, I am all aboard the hype train. And, uh, look, I was at the Kentucky game last year.
33:00
He was throwing lame ducks at people's feet, and, like, I don't know what he was doing in, in some of those games last year, but he got better as the year went along.
33:06
He looked great in the, in the game against A&M, got the big win, looked great in the bowl game. The Cheez-It Bowl, beat Michigan.
33:11
So, um, look, I, you go out and get Cam Coleman, one of the best offensive weapons out there. They redid that entire backfield. The run game was not great for Texas. They go get Relik Brown and Hollywood Smothers.
33:22
Offensive line is improved. Trevor Goosby will be a top 10 pick next year. I like all the changes they made. Will Muschamp now is the defensive coordinator. You know he's gonna bring it with the blitzing and all that.
33:31
So I, I'm a buyer into Texas, man. It's a tough, tough schedule. You get Ohio State week two at home. Uh, but I love Arch, man.
33:39
I think he is the real deal, and I think we're gonna see a much improved Arch Manning out of the gates this year, and a Heisman Trophy contender throughout the year. You're good on Muschamp.
33:48
I asked Chris Fallica, The Bear from Fox Sports, this earlier, 'cause Will Muschamp as a head coach or coordinator has not put together a top 10 defense for, like, over a decade.
33:57
You're okay with him, though, as the defensive coordinator this year? He's got dudes. He's got dudes, man. Yeah. Colin Simmons is the edge rusher. They go get Rasheem Byles, a tackling machine, from, from Pitt.
34:06
Uh, secondary's awesome. They just got John Meredith to reclassify to this season. They're loaded, man. J- Will Muschamp is gonna bl- is gonna bring it this year.
34:14
Five years from now, he may not be there, but this year I think you're getting a really good Muschamp. [upbeat music] Chris, really appreciate it. Thank you so much. Thanks, fellas. Chris Gordy, everybody.
34:25
Wyatt Tomchek, wrestling, NASCAR next. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:44
Back on The Numbers Game live from San Francisco and Las Vegas. Gil Alexander in the Bay. Kelly Bidlin back at our, uh, studios there at Circa Resort Casino.
34:52
Uh, before we get to Wyatt Tomchek, our buddy, uh, we have a 59 at the 3M Open, Kelly? We do. 59 on the PGA tour. Michael Kim is your leader now. Just finished up his round. 59. He is 14 under for the tournament.
35:11
Wow. 12 under on his round today. Whew. Did we have a 58 earlier this year? Oh, gosh, did we? I don't think so. Was it, did Jim Furyk... What, what am I... I don't know.
35:23
Yeah, Jim Furyk shot a 58 at the, uh- Oh, so long ago... Travelers. Oh, no, no, I'm, I'm sorry, not this year. 10, um, n- not this year. I misspoke. 10 years ago precisely at the Travelers, Jim Furyk shot a 58.
35:35
I think that's the lowest I ever remember. And that might be, yeah, that is, that is actually, I'm being told, yeah, tied for the record. Yeah, there, there's not many in the 50s club, that's for sure.
35:43
There's, there's not many. Bryson DeChambeau had, yeah, Bryson DeChambeau had a 58, but that was on the LIV Tour a few years ago.
35:49
Um- Yeah, he goes, it was a par, it's a par 71 out there at TPC Twin Cities, so 12 under, 59 for Michael Kim today. Whew. One shot from the PGA Tour all-time low round record. Wow. What is this?
36:03
Real quick- They actually showed it on Golf Channel right now. Sub-60 rounds since 2017. Looks like that is 11 I'm counting.
36:12
Furyk, Michael Kim, Jake Knapp, Hayden Springer, Cameron Young, Scottie Scheffler, Kevin Chappell, Brandt Snedeker, Adam Hadwin, and Justin Thomas. Man. Okay. Um, real quick, Red Sox 80 to one to win the month of July.
36:27
Just throw it up on the board. Three games set with the Blue Jays at Fenway tonight, tomorrow, Sunday. Then four games at Sactown against the July worst Athletics, finishing with one game against the Dodgers.
36:40
Five and three. If you go five and three, you don't even have to look at the scoreboard. You'll win it. Let's go Red Sox. Let's go, man. What do you got, Kelly? Let's go.
36:47
All right, bets that I've made throughout the week here, uh, some NBA win totals and then one NFL bet. Bears over 415 and a half points scored. We talked about this one yesterday.
36:57
And then earlier in the week, some NBA win total bets from me as these are coming out. Jazz over 35 and a half, Rockets over 47 and a half, and Pistons under 50 and a half.
37:07
Gonna be interested to see how these Eastern Conference ones get, uh, reshuffled as LeBron James joins the Philadelphia 76ers. LeBron James to the Sixers.
37:17
Congratulations to everybody who had him going to the Sixers in prediction markets. Jensen Lewis earlier on the show, Yankees-Phillies under eight today. Cubs-Pirates under eight and a half.
37:25
Those are the two bets he likes the most. Phillies minus one, plus 109.
37:30
Brewers minus one and a half on the run line, minus 117 in that game against the Rockies where he also, uh, I believe he has a total in that, in that game as well, uh, the Rockies-Brewers.
37:40
We double up the bet here on the screen. But he's also on the run line. In addition to being on the Brewers run line in that game, he's also on the Tigers in the run line against the Royals today as well.
37:49
Um, also heard from Chris Felica, The Bear. Uh, the Bing Crosby Del Mar Race Number 10 tomorrow, he is on the number five horse, Cornucopian at 3 to 1. Cornucopian the play again, Del Mar tomorrow.
38:04
And then, uh, his college football plays. Texas Tech, um, Texas Tech minus one and a half games versus Texas at, uh, at that price right there on your screen, minus 140. 140.
38:15
Georgia minus a half a win, plus 130 versus Ohio State. Oregon minus four and a half games at plus 125 versus Nebraska.
38:25
And then a win total, which we really didn't get to flesh out, USC under eight and a half wins this year for Lincoln Riley's crew. And then Tyler Shoemaker, he's got three, uh, bullish college football season wins.
38:36
Love it. Love it. Arkansas four and a half, not low enough, under. Colorado four and a half wins, not low enough, under. And Southern Miss three and a half wins, not low enough, under. All three from Tyler Shoemaker.
38:49
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he's the, uh, the people's champion, one of our crowd favorites, always here to, uh, produce the show when needed, and certainly the man who makes sure the mega pod gets on each and every week.
38:59
It's Wyatt Tomchek, the voice of UNLV Women's Basketball joining us in studio. What up, Wyatt? Oh, man. My only day filling in for Danny, and, uh, LeBron James, uh, decides to sign with the Sixers.
39:10
And it messed up my, uh, entering in picks for Jensen that, uh, it's Rockies-Brewers over eight and a half minus 114. So that was, uh- Thank you, sir... that was, uh, that was my fault, brother. Thank you, sir. Fired.
39:19
Uh, okay. Not allowed back on Monday. Done. Yep. That's it. It's the end of the segment. Gil suspended, Wyatt fired. Yep. [laughs] Clint, we're cleaning house here today on The Numbers Game. That's it.
39:30
He's never coming back. All right, Wyatt, a few things to talk to you about. One, just because we talked about SEC all morning, you do this SEC survivor pool. Are you doing that?
39:39
Are you gonna participate in that again this year? Yep. Once that email comes out, uh, I will be signing up, and, uh, I have a lot of fun with it. It's, it's, it's really interesting.
39:47
Obviously now with the SEC expanding over the last couple years is that you have a couple weeks where you have to pick two teams.
39:53
So, um, you know, trying to find, like the teams like Arkansas, you see Tyler Shoemaker has a under on the win total of four and a half. You gotta play those teams in non-conference.
40:02
Fi- find, you know, the cookie cutter match up. So, uh, it's been a challenge. I've made it, I think the farthest I've made it is like week nine or week 10, somewhere around there. And what is it?
40:11
It becomes two teams a week at some point? So, so you have to, so there's, I think there was what?
40:17
13 weeks, 13 or 14 weeks in the college football season, but there's 16 SEC teams, so there's a couple weeks where you have to double up. Got it. Okay. Wait, how long you been doing this, Wyatt?
40:28
And, and how far, how long do you go, go back with these guys?
40:31
I think it is, this'll be my fourth year, and it's a buddy who knew somebody who knew somebody, and he just gave me the email, and he's like, "You wanna join?" I was like, "Heck yeah." Okay. Oh.
40:40
So I'm gonna get Chris Felica and Gil Alexander. Nice. They wanna join, so I'm excited. Kelly, the invitation- That's right... 's, uh, up for, uh, there for you. Well, of course, of course I'm in. I, I- Yeah...
40:48
this is my, one of my favorite parts of the show today on the VSIN++ subscription, so you guys didn't hear it on air, but the, uh, the Chris Felica wanting to be a part of the SEC survivor, uh, group, and I'm like, "Yeah, I'm sure- $10...
40:59
they're gonna love to have you. I'm sure of it." [laughs] A $10 buy-in pool. That's right.
41:03
All right, Wyatt, uh, Brickyard 400, Denny Hamlin is the short shot at plus 350, followed in the odds by Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson, William Byron, everybody else double digits. Who you got?
41:18
Well, you know, I w- I was able to do, uh, Gone Racing with our, uh, old friends, uh, Jeff Motley. Brendan Gaughan couldn't be there, uh- Oh, nice... yesterday. So I was kinda looking at this.
41:28
You know, for me, I don't really bet a lot of guys to win. I'm more of a top five, top 10 group, uh, match ups, but I like, there's two guys that really stand out to me.
41:37
Bubba Wallace, who won the race last year, he needs a good result. He's kinda close on that playoff cu- cutoff line.
41:43
And I believe, uh, you know, momentum is, is, i- is key in everything, and I'm gonna go with, uh, Joey Logano at 16 to 1, who won here, uh, who won last week at North Wilkesboro. He was great. And, um, uh, what was it?
41:55
You know, he had a good shot at winning last year, but cut a tire late in the race. Watch this, Kelly. Joey Logano used to be Joe Gibbs Racing, but is no longer Joe Gibbs Racing? Yes, that- Is that true?
42:05
He left Joe Gibbs Racing back in 2012. Wow. Wow. Thank you very much. Well done, Gil. Thank you, guys. I kind of have a Nas- Thank you... I have a NASCAR betting question too.
42:13
I, w- uh, Wyatt just referenced something that you and I reference all the time when we're talking golf and tennis. How much, like, recent form versus track history comes into play when you're handicapping NASCAR?
42:26
Like, I, i- what's most important to you? Um, yeah, I like to look at, at recent results. Now, remember, this is, uh, this NASCAR, um, it's, it's a new car. It's called the, the Next Gen car.
42:39
At Indianapolis Motor Speedway, they didn't race on the oval for a handful of years, so 2024 was the first season they raced with that car. So I only look back the last two races. Okay.
42:48
Uh, sometimes you look back three or four, but usually that, and then the other thing I, I look at is, um, you know, practice. I look at, at At speeds.
42:57
Um, your five lap average speed, 10, 15, and kind of judge it from there. So you might care recent form wise, you might care more about practice week of than how they've done the past couple races. Yes. Yes. Okay. One.
43:09
Interesting. That was always, when we had, when we had Jeff Coley Andra on weekly for NASCAR, that was always his thing, the practice- Practice... right before. Yeah, makes sense. The day before. Yeah. That makes sense.
43:17
Yeah. We t- we talking about practice actually mattered big time to him. [laughs] Um, any group plays, Wyatt, or no? Yeah. No group plays? Yeah, there was a couple.
43:25
The group plays that I, uh, I was really interested in, uh, group A, I like, uh, Kyle Larson at plus 300. Kyle, the last, uh, two races, he won in 2024, and then he finished second in 2025.
43:37
He had a good car last week in North Wilkesboro. He got caught up in, uh, a pit road accident. Um, but you know, this is a prestigious race.
43:44
It's one of the NASCAR crown jewels, and he usually rises up i- in big moments like that. So I like him, although it is tough.
43:50
I will say Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, just a note for people, the Toyotas have been just legendary, uh, this season. So it'll be a tough, tough, uh, battle for Larson, but I like that number.
44:00
And another one I liked was, uh, Brad Keselowski in group D at plus 350. Brad's another one of those drivers who needs a good finish to try to get himself into the playoffs. He finished top 10 here last year.
44:10
I like him in that group. The, the other driver that concerns me in that group is, uh, Carson Hocevar in, uh, group D. He has a lot of good speed, but he's, uh, it's very hit or miss for him.
44:19
He either is gonna finish top five or he's gonna get caught up in a wreck. All right, Wyatt, take us home with wrasslin'. What do we need to know? Well, WWE Summer Slam, that is the number two event.
44:29
It'll be in Minneapolis, Minnesota. It's a two-day event. Um- Summer Slam. Saturday and Sunday. [laughs] We don't know, so they're, it's, it, I don't know who's on each day.
44:39
They haven't announced it yet, but there's some, some good match-ups. You got a Hell in a Cell match, Oba Femi versus Brock Lesnar. Oh, Hell in a Cell. You guys know, you guys know who Brock Lesnar is, so. Yeah. Yeah.
44:48
Sure, sure. I know Brock. Um, I, uh, one I'm looking forward to, CM Punk versus Cody Rhodes for the undisputed WWE championship. Uh, I don't know who's gonna win that one.
44:57
I think Oba Femi's gonna win the Hell in a Cell match. Between Punk and Rhodes, that's a, that's a toss-up for me. Another one I'm really looking forward to is Roman Reigns versus Seth Rollins.
45:05
These guys got history, Kelly and Gil. Ooh. History. A ton of history. History. Yeah. It's all on the line at Summer Slam. And you guys probably know Danhausen versus Dominik Mysterio. Danhausen, my guy. Ah.
45:17
You are cursed. Who doesn't know that? [laughs] See ya.
A Numbers Game
Listen on
Apple Podcasts
Apple Podcasts
Pocket Casts
Pocket Casts
Castro
Castro
Recent episodes
A Numbers Game | September 17, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 17, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 16, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
