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Jul 25, 2025
A Numbers Game | July 25, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | July 25, 2025 | Hour 1
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44:35
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat rock music] The numbers told the story. They always do. So, one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:11
Welcome to a Numbers Game, day two of Kelly Bidlack and Steve Fezzik. Hold on to your butts. Right, Steve? That's, uh, we made it through one day. We, we didn't get fired.
0:21
I, I, I didn't, I didn't hear anything bad, so we're back. Apparently they liked us enough, so. Or, or they're not listening. Or they're not listening. [laughs] There is a lot going on in town, so yeah.
0:29
[laughs] There is definitely a possibility as well.
0:32
Um, a th- a, a f- a farewell to Dave Ross for his Las Vegas stint, him going out to Kentucky, going to be helping up, opening up w- our VSiN and the Circa operations out there.
0:43
Couldn't be a better ambassador, was just on for the last segment with those guys.
0:46
You made a joke a little bit in the break of asking how early the crew gets here, 'cause I know th- this experience is becoming new for you, uh, wake up this early, prep work and everything.
0:56
And one of your questions was, when do they get time to drink? Well, Dave, being the good guy that he is, he brought in a bunch of booze for the crew.
1:03
So my only worry is that they're gonna start sometime during the show, and I don't know. So if things get a little sloppy towards the end of the show, that's, that's why. That's what's going on. I like that.
1:11
You know, Mitch and Pauley, for years, 4:00 AM to 7:00 AM, when do you drink? Uh, b- I, before and after the show. [laughs] Uh, yeah, exactly. That was, uh... I, I got to produce that during the pandemic. Oh.
1:24
Uh, luckily there was no sports going on, so you didn't really have to worry about staying up too late. But yeah, that was the, the midnight wake-up call. That's quite an alarm to set. [laughs] That is for sure.
1:34
That, uh, that one's a little wild one. Uh, Steve Fezzik, if ever you guys... if you guys don't know Steve, two-time Hilton Super Contest winner, ma- a man who made his name betting contests, uh, early on in the days.
1:46
Guess what? We're gonna do a lot of contest talk today coming up on the show. We're also gonna b- bring back a classic for him to take part of, Are We Sure? That's coming up next. We'll go through that.
1:55
I know Steve, every- everybody who listens regularly to this show, Steve, they wanna be a part of Are We Sure? So we're gonna allow you to be a part of that this week, okay? Love it.
2:03
Um, contests at 10, uh, 10:30 Eastern. 10:45 Eastern, Greg Peterson with about 17 MLB bets today. We will, uh, try to get through as many as we possibly can with him.
2:14
Uh, and then 11:00 Eastern, we're gonna talk betting the Hall of Fame Game, and, and Steve does have an opinion on that. That is in six days from now, so, uh, don't let that slip away.
2:24
And then just we're gonna go back and forth on our thoughts on betting preseason. I know you've heard it 1,000 times. I've heard it 1,000 times, Steve, both ways. You can make a lot of money betting pr- uh, preseason.
2:33
You should never bet the NFL preseason. We both heard both of those. You and I will talk about our opinion on that matter.
2:39
Um, as well as you have a lot of Game of the Year bets to get through, so we're gonna talk through some of those. We're gonna talk through, guess what? Steve's got a blackjack quiz for everybody to take at home.
2:48
We're gonna have some fun with that, talk some blackjack strategy, some casino strategy, how to w- uh, get those g- get those reward points up and everything like that. All that coming in the second hour.
2:59
And maybe the one a lot of you will be looking forward to, we talk a lot about the steakhouses, uh, on this show. Uh, we like to talk about the nice places to go get a drink on the Strip.
3:09
Steve's got the list of top five meals under $20, correct? In town. We can't all go to Delilah's every night.
3:17
[laughs] Or SW Steakhouse or Carbone, so this is for the, the vast bulk of you that just wanna go out and good eats cheap. It, it's tough to eat like Gil Alexander, that's for sure.
3:29
[laughs] It is tough to eat like Gil Alexander. Um, okay, so start with a couple things from, uh, yesterday.
3:34
Uh, we did see one of our first significant trades in Major League Baseball, Josh Naylor traded from the Arizona Diamondbacks to the Seattle Mariners. I know you had a thought on, uh, on this, Steve.
3:45
We've been wondering kind of all season how good c- can this Mariners team be. We see them make a move like this. How significant is this for you?
3:53
So right after I get a text from my buddy Brad F, um, by the way, on Twitter, I believe he's @BradsBestBets, and we talked about text a friend. Mm. You know, in terms of coordinating with people.
4:04
And he's like, "Stevie, get me some Seattle 30 to one." This is a game changer completely. And so what's interesting is he's attacking Seattle. He feels they're a legitimate contender now to win the World Series.
4:17
My take was, and we gave this out yesterday, Arizona under 79 and a half wins, season wins, they are donezo, and they're already starting to sell.
4:26
So, um, tale of two teams, best of times and the worst of times this year for those teams. Yeah, I guess the big, uh, the big question for Arizona is, uh, where does this, where does this stop now, right?
4:36
Is he the first of several that we're gonna see, uh, moved? A- and I think the, uh, common opinion out there is yeah, it's probably gonna be, uh, a couple that we see go.
4:45
Wanted to bring this up, and you probably caught it yesterday if you've been watching, uh, watching, following WNBA. Obviously, Caitlin Clark has been the story for the past couple years.
4:53
Uh, that groin injury she picked up July 15th, now the, the team is saying that, that she is, there is no timetable for her return. I, uh, Steve, wanted to bring this up. I'm not a big WNBA bettor.
5:04
I don't think you are either. Obviously, Caitlin Clark though, superstar of the sport. When you hear no timetable for a return, that is never a good, uh, good, good sentence to hear.
5:14
N- not at all, and you know, hey, just, it's just me, if I was the commissioner, I would probably protect my biggest asset and stop letting her get mugged on a nightly basis and get, and get injured.
5:25
Um, by the way, I used to bet a lot on the WNBA. The markets used to be so inefficient. Yeah. And it just got a lot harder. And frankly, I never really t- Personal taste, I never liked the WNBA. Mm.
5:36
So I feel if you're gonna bet a sport, all things being equal, try to bet the softest sport that, i- but if it's not really soft, bet the sport you love. Yeah. So if you don't love it, let it go.
5:47
Yeah, no, and you're right. That, I mean, that market's changed over the past couple years, right? Far more people betting the WNBA. It's become sharper.
5:53
That was, you know, where we used to talk about me betting the CFL, and I'm getting back into it. That's what I used to love about the CFL.
5:59
How many, how many football weeks do you see where lines move, spreads move four or five points in a single week? It's wild. And, and they move so slowly. Yeah.
6:07
[laughs] Like, like, like in the WNBA, like Maya Moore could get injured during a game, right? Best player in the league, and yet the, the, the, the live wagering would barely blip. No, but it...
6:16
And now everyone's watching it, so it's much more, um, of a, the dynamic market is much more efficient. Yeah, absolutely.
6:23
Uh, circling back to NFL, uh, training camp's getting going, and this will be kind of news coming down every single day from different camps.
6:30
I think the b- by far biggest story that we got yesterday, Raiders, uh, have released Christian Wilkins, their b- big defensive tackle move they b- brought in from the Dolphins.
6:40
Um, reminder, they signed him in free agency last year to a five-year, $110 million contract. Ends up just playing five games for the Raiders. He is out.
6:53
Uh, this was kind of a weird story I think we're gonna find out more about still, Steve. He had been recovering from a Jones fracture, which he suffered last October.
7:03
Uh, there has been videos out there of him dancing recently, and him still sli- but, uh, slowly recovering is what they're calling it. So, um, they let him go.
7:13
The Raiders avoid the remaining 35.2 million of guaranteed money left on his contract. How do you avoid a guaranteed contract?
7:20
[laughs] I, I, I think, uh, if you broke some of, well, part of your con- your side of the contract is probably how that ends up happening, but- I don't think dancing would qualify.
7:29
[laughs] So I think that's one we're... Look, I think that's one we're gonna hear some more about here in the coming days. This Raiders team overall, though, I did wanna talk to you about where you stand on them.
7:39
We hit a lot on the AFC West yesterday of kind of, but really the Broncos and the Chargers seem to be the two hot teams everybody wants to talk about this off-season, how well they could do.
7:48
This Raiders team, how much of an improvement, if any, do you expect to see from a season ago? Significant improvement.
7:54
You know, I have a buddy, um, Jim, he's a professional, semi-professional bettor, and you hear me say that a lot. Mm.
8:00
Like, I network all the time, so I love networking with people, and he's like, "Fez, you make this way too difficult.
8:06
If you have a good coach and you have a good quarterback, you bet that team to go over their season wins. If you have a bad quarterback and a bad coach, you go under." Now, the Raiders have probably a- [laughs]...
8:20
an average quarterback in Geno Smith, and Pete Carroll's probably a slightly above coach at this point in his career, but you know what? The delta- Mm...
8:28
the change from last year are such upgrades, I think you can only look to play the Raiders over, and that's why you've seen their season win number go from six and a half to approximately 7.1 right now.
8:41
All the money bullish on the Raiders.
8:42
Yeah, I, I mean, I think out, what we saw out of Geno Smith a year ago, look, it might not have been what everybody was hoping for with that set, set of receivers on the Seahawks, but all I keep thinking about is how often that offensive line was getting pushed around, and he had to deal with that all season in Seattle.
8:57
Um- Very accurate. Very accurate quarterback. Very accurate, yeah.
9:00
And you're gonna get that with a, I mean, Brock Bowers, who, I, I mean, l- put on a show last year looking like one of the best tight ends in the league by the end of the season.
9:09
Um, now you bring in Ashton Jeanty, definitely some weapons on that offense. We'll see, see how they do in a, in a very crowded AFC West, uh, with a lot of threats there.
9:17
We did, wanted to circle back to the Justin Fields story 'cause this has come, come a long ways as we basically broke the news of the, uh, about 24 hours ago that he had been carted off the field. Um, guess what?
9:29
Dislocated toe, so not that bad. We hit that by the end of the show yesterday, Steve. Uh, saw video this morning. He's back out on the practice field. So these are the things, bettors beware, right?
9:38
This is some of the news that you get during training camps on injuries. There's a lot of uncertainty. Guess what?
9:44
There's also not a lot of reason why the teams need to come forward immediately and disclose all the details.
9:51
But, but the problem is, is that you have to bet with that uncertainty, with the incomplete and im- imperfect information. If you wait for it to be confirmed that he has an ACL tear or something like that- Sure.
10:01
That number flies away. Yeah... it's gone, so, so sometimes you're gonna wind up with market numbers that you bet hoping for the...
10:08
Well, you never hope for the worst, but you, you hope the kid has a, a, a speedy recovery from a year, [laughs] a s- a, a year-ending injury, and it didn't happen here. Yeah, right, yeah, exactly.
10:17
And then the other one, uh, Dolphins, uh, saw this Ardrie Burns go down with an injury, uh, a couple, this was a couple days ago, the team announcing yesterday, though, it is a torn ACL for him.
10:29
Dolphins already one of the worst secondaries in the league coming into the season. Um, Steve, where do you see AFC East? Okay, Bills I, I think we're gonna agree are the best team.
10:39
I, they, they're, they're, they're my favorite to, uh, go win the Super Bowl. I think they finally get it done this year. No bets, though, as we talked about, Steve.
10:46
This is not the time to go out and make a to-win-the-Super-Bowl bet, especially on a heavy favorite. So no bets there. Uh, w- how do you see this AFC East stacking up?
10:54
I am not as high on the, on it as some on the, on, on the Patriots love that we keep hearing, but where do you fall on them, the Dolphins, a- and even this Jets team?
11:02
And real important for those of, who are following along and seeing, um, you know, the visuals on these season wins. Mm. So the, the books put the season wins up on half points.
11:11
A lot of them do because they don't wanna have any pushes. So like, like we show on the graphic, Bills 12 and a half, and of course that carries heavy vig to the under. Right.
11:19
There's 11 halves, heavy vig to the over, et cetera, but I think the number one theme is that bad news for the Jets, bad news for the Dolphins means that exacta Bills, Patriots looking more profitable now. I like that.
11:32
I like that. Okay, plenty of more to come on the show. Next, coming up next, are we sure the Steelers will finally go under their win total? It's another thrilling addition, addition of Are We Sure when we come back.
11:56
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Want to be a better smarter? Start with Smarter Insights. Uh, get to vsin.com right now. We've got plenty up there, uh, t- for you to check out.
12:10
Greg Peterson with all his MLB best bets. Guess what? He's also coming up on the show in 30 minutes, so we're gonna talk to him about some of those best bets for the day.
12:17
Adam Burke's 2025 NFL survivor blueprint is up there. Love Adam Burke. Oh, he's awesome. He's the best. Uh, and Zach Cohen's tennis picks for the day.
12:27
Not exactly sure how he did yesterday, but I know he was hot a couple day, uh, couple days ago, so check that out.
12:32
And then later today, you can check out Tyler Shoemaker's WNBA, uh, picks, the Jim Dandy Stakes preview, and Steve Makinen's MLB analytics report.
12:41
Right now, you can sign up for full VSiN pro access until the Super Bowl for only $175. Head to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today. Anything Steve Makinen says, I want to read. I love his work.
12:57
Uh, Steve does great stuff. Has done, uh, that since, what, basically the beginning of VSiN. He always has. And m- also up right now at vsin.com, you can get all of Steve Fezzik's MLB bets for the day.
13:07
We're gonna go over those next segment because this segment, we're gonna play a little game we love to call Are We Sure? [upbeat music] You think you know what's going on in the sports betting world? Are you sure?
13:20
I'm positive. Gil and Kelly tackle the hard-hitting questions on another exciting edition of Are We Sure? All right. Steve Fezzik in the hot seat this time for Are We Sure? Gil Alexander, move aside.
13:33
We'll see you on Monday. Uh, all right, Steve, are we sure the Pittsburgh Steelers will finally go under their win total this year?
13:41
So i- this is all tongue in cheek because you're never really sure of anything, but yes, we are sure the Steel- positive traction, the offense, they're gonna hit the gas, and the tires are just gonna spin like in the Mississippi mud here.
13:54
Eh, there we go. My cousin Vinny, they're going under eight and a half. I like it. I like it.
13:57
If you could work in a My Cousin Vinny reference for every one of these answers, uh, that would be the superstar Are We Sure performance, uh, of the year. Uh, okay. Are we sure the Chiefs will be back in the Super Bowl?
14:09
They've only made it there five of the last six years, Steve. Well, they'll be there watching the game with Taylor Swift. [laughs] But they won't actually be playing it. The Chiefs got outgained from a line of scrimmage.
14:18
Um, I'm not even sure this, that the Chiefs are gonna make the playoffs, so they're not going to the Super Bowl. Whoo. Not even sure the Chiefs will make the playoffs. All right. There you go.
14:27
There's your headline so far from Steve Fezzik. Are we sure the Eagles are the team to beat in the NFC? Yes. The Utes, the Utes from Philly absolutely still should be favored. Okay. Yeah, they are...
14:43
I know you were high on the, uh, 49ers yesterday. We had a little bit of that conversation. Um, still think it's four- is it 49ers and the Eagles in the NFC overall for you at the top? Yes. Okay. All right. Great.
14:55
Uh, the AFC West, are we sure w- we'll, we'll pr- are we sure the AFC West will produce at least two playoff teams? They might produce three, right? I think so, too. And the Raiders could be sneaky good. Yes, we're sure.
15:06
Yeah. Oh, uh, but you know what? Those who are paying attention, I just said Kansas City we're [laughs] not sure is gonna make the playoffs. I guess that means the Chargers and Denver have to, right? Yeah.
15:15
So okay, let's break this down real quick, uh, Steve, because you said last segment that if e- you would go over on the Raiders win total. So you think the Raiders are gonna be a little bit better.
15:24
I- is it possible, I mean, it is possible, but could we really see three teams still make it to the playoffs and one of them not be the Raiders? Yes, it's possible. [laughs] I think so, too.
15:36
I really, I really think it's live the Chiefs, Broncos, Chargers all get in there. It is wild. Um, okay. Are we sure people should not bet the Hall of Fame game? It's wacky, right, Steve? We don't know who's playing.
15:48
Come on. You can't make a bet there. So there are three schools of thought. There, there are two acceptable answers and one horrendous answer, all right, about betting preseason.
15:58
One, I bet preseason and I get key edges because of information about who's playing, all right? Mm-hmm. That is totally, um... That's the number one. That's the best answer. Sure. All right.
16:10
Another good answer is preseason very beatable, but I just don't have the time or the resources to devote to it. So guys like the Hitman, my friend the Hitman, um, crush preseason year after year.
16:22
I choose not to devote that time or invest that time, and that's a perfectly fine answer. The wrong answer is it's an exhibition, the teams don't care, preseason's not beatable.
16:32
I assure you, if you go and talk to some of the sportsbook managers around town, they'll start cursing out this preseason.
16:40
There's a reason they only take $500 or $1,000 on a preseason game versus taking $10,000, $20,000, $50,000 on a regular season game because the bottom line is, when one team is gonna play their starters for a half and the other team's gonna play their starters for one series, guess what?
16:56
You [laughs] want the team that's playing all their starters, especially in the first half, and the books get crushed against the best bettors year after year in preseason. Yeah.
17:04
We're, and we're gonna talk more about this later in the show, kind of our specific strategies for the preseason. I, I think there's a lot you just hit on there.
17:11
For me, it's, it's always looking about, uh, uh, looking at what's the talent look like on the quarterback depth chart, too, right?
17:17
Like, if you know we're gonna see QB two and three, how do they compare to, compare to the quarterback three on the other side, right? There's a massive differential sometimes there.
17:25
Put me down on the Bengals first quarter- [laughs]... in their first two games with, uh, Zimmer coming out saying, "You know what? Maybe we started the year one and nine the last two years.
17:34
Maybe we, maybe we play Burrow and company. Not, they don't have appendicitises this year." Man, we, we, all right.
17:38
We, we definitely have to talk about the Bengals strategy later 'cause I am terrified that is gonna blow up in their face. Real, real quick on the Hall of Fame game, though.
17:45
We're seeing, uh, I'm over at FanDuel right now. I see Lions one and a half point favorites. This is basically a pick 'em. It's minus 120 on the money line, even money for the Chargers, uh, coming back the other way.
17:56
But see a one and a half. When I see a one and a half and I see a 32 and a half total, I think t- I think teasers. Steve, how many books are letting you tease preseason these days, and is it anything you ever recommend?
18:08
None in Vegas- Yeah... at, a- at, at reasonable odds. I massively recommend preseason teasers because the totals are so much lower. Yes. The total of this game's 33. So, and you see so many 17 to 16 type of scores.
18:22
So the truth is, pulling back the curtain, pros love teasing. There are some pros, Gilley talks about this, that, um, w- when, when he had Jason Weingarten on- Mm-hmm... they'll play the 10 point teaser- Yep...
18:32
and they'll go over 23, you know, and the- and they've done very well. But frankly, my basic strategy, depending upon which way the wind blows, the market will make a team a favorite.
18:43
And i- in the regular season, if a team goes from a, a one, a pick 'em to a one or a two point favorite, who cares? Right. It's unlikely to land.
18:50
These ones and twos land all the time in preseason, 'cause if it's, if it's 17 to 10 and a team scores, they're going to go for two, and the game's gonna end on one. And you know what?
18:58
If you're catching plus one and a half or more, you win. Yep. Yeah, exactly. 'Cause e- 'cause guess what? These teams don't wanna go play more pre- exhibition football in overtime.
19:06
But yeah, you could, uh, take Chargers up to seven and a half and that, uh, total down to 26 and a half and go over. That sounds like a good teaser to me.
19:13
Uh, okay, are we sure Lamar Jac- well, Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen will win MVP this season? I'm sure that those should be the top two favorites, but you know what? You give me the entire league against two dudes- Yep...
19:27
I gotta take the field. Yeah, I mean, when, when injuries are always in play, I think you gotta think that way. I, if you told me Lamar, Lamar or Josh both don't get injured though, man, it's like,
19:39
to me, it's over 90% it's one of the two of them. I don't know, I don't know why we would think it's ending any time soon.
19:44
With the offenses they play on, the teams that they play on, and the type, the type of, uh, quarterback play that they, uh, that they play at, I, man, it's gonna, it might be Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen in this conversation here still for the next few years.
19:57
Um, are we sure Ashton Jeanty should be the favorite over Cam Ward to win Rookie of the Year? No, because the Raiders' O line, how good is it gonna be, you know, as far as the blocking?
20:09
Obviously, Andre James, they lose their center to the Chargers, um, you know, this year. And if the holes aren't there, I don't care how good a running back is, he's not gonna be able to put up the numbers.
20:19
So we're not sure. Yeah, I, this is, this has not been a bet for me, Steve, 'cause I'm not really sure how much I trust the, the, the Titans or Ward within that offense to really be able to put up big numbers.
20:30
But I think you always gotta look at the quarterbacks first here. So I, I was surprised even just on the open that, open that Jeanty was the favorite and really hasn't budged from that in the, in this market.
20:40
Uh, are we sure the Dodgers should only be plus 145 to finish with the best record in Major League Baseball? Oh, we're sure.
20:49
[laughs] I mean, in terms of things going wrong, there's a movie in the '90s, Ruthless People, with Danny DeVito. Yeah.
20:55
And there's a kidnapping that gets botched, and he's like, "If things went wrong, they said they would kill Bette Midler."
21:01
Well, things couldn't have gone much more wrong than they've gone for the Dodgers the last two months, so why are we still sure that they're gonna have the best record, right? Right.
21:09
Oh, man, it's, uh, yeah, this is interesting. I, I don't know where this... When, when is there value on getting in on the Dodgers? Is there a point where we hit...
21:17
Uh, like, do, uh, do you believe they're gonna swing back at some point here and we're gonna add at the trade deadline?
21:22
The, the Dodgers are the poster child for the team that's disinterested, coasts to, you know, the division title, wins just enough games, and doesn't have enough pitching to win the championship.
21:32
But that would've blown up in your face [laughs] last year, so I have no opinion. Yeah, yeah, [laughs] Steve will not get involved. Got it. All right, are we sure the Blue Jays will win the AL East?
21:42
Currently, what, four games up on the Yankees? Yes, because they also have the tiebreaker, so they're really up four and a half games. And I think it's just a bridge too far for a Yankee team.
21:53
Kelly, you and I can field better than that team can, so no defense. What do they got, like eight designated hitters playing in the field? Man, yeah, seriously. Come on, Yankees.
22:03
I, I actually made a bet on you, like, a couple weeks ago. This is not going well. Okay, one last one real quick. Are we sure the Cubs will win the NL Central with the Brewers hot on their heels?
22:13
No, because we're not even sure the Brewers aren't the best team, not just in the division, but in all of baseball. Whoa, there we go. All right. A little hot take from Steve on our way out.
22:23
All right, another fun Are We Sure? Uh, coming up next, are you signing up for NFL contests in Las Vegas?
22:30
Steve has some advice on which contests you should play, because there are plenty to choose from and plenty of different rules. He'll help explain. We'll talk through all of that coming up next on The Numbers Game.
22:40
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Ready to get in on the action?
22:58
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23:08
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23:23
Made it through that one flawlessly. [claps] Think I screwed up, uh, live read pretty bad that last segment. We're gonna replay it later in the show, though. I don't even know what I said, Steve, but whatever.
23:32
That's what happens. We just, uh, you, you ask Kelly to sit in this chair and you give Gil the week off, reading's tough on air, okay? Reading is tough. Hey, you're two for three in MLB.
23:41
[laughs] Like, that, that's like Kelly Leak from Bad News Bears. There we go. Thank you, Steve. You always got my back. I appreciate it. Sure. Uh, make sure to tweet into the show too.
23:49
We'll get to them, uh, in a little bit, @kellybidlin, and of course, @fesikssports. I'm sure you follow Steve already, uh, on there. We got plenty to get to in the show today.
23:59
I'm, we're just trying to figure out if we have enough time. You have some baseball bets, though, for the day.
24:02
I wanna make sure we get those out to everybody, uh, who's looking to get in before numbers move too much, 'cause they probably already have, knowing you.
24:09
[laughs] Um, so what, we, we got four on the diamond and the one college football, uh, total. Yeah, so very highly technical analysis.
24:17
I bet four teams, because I like their pitchers and I like their bullpens, and I don't like their opponents', um, pitchers. So I'm on the Padres, minus 133; Giants, minus 128; Mariners, minus 130; Rangers, minus 166.
24:32
I have not monitored these lines. This is what I gave out to my clients about an hour ago. I apologize if the line moved. Will Hill, don't fine me. I don't wanna be fined. [laughs] All right? I'm sorry.
24:42
And, and here's a line in college football that has moved, I'm sure. I gave out Stanford, Hawaii under 54 and a half, and I'm sure the screen's probably going black.
24:52
Um, by the way, I like- Week zero college football unders just in general In general. Okay, I'm trying to look. Padres you were okay on. That one's still playable. I didn't get to the rest of them in time.
25:02
W- I do wanna make sure, I didn't wanna go much further in the show without bringing this up. I will be there, uh, next weekend, F- Fezzik Vegas Boot Camp.
25:10
Tell us a little bit about what people can expect, uh, next weekend, uh, h- here in town. Yeah, so really excited.
25:16
Gonna go through not so much a handicapping seminar, and, you know, Bet Bash is coming up, and that's a very social seminar. This is much more of, how can you win more money? How can you do better in your own betting?
25:28
And we're gonna address contests. We're gonna do live wagering. We're gonna talk about bonuses and things like that. I'll give a- an example of a tip I'm gonna give. So Survivor, everyone loves Survivor. Mm-hmm.
25:38
Westgate's doing Survivor. Circa's got multiple Survivor contests, and so I'm gonna pull back the curtain. People say, "How many entries am I gonna play with Survivor?" And I tell everyone, "It depends."
25:48
On the Dallas-Philly game, why would that matter? Because they play on Thursday, right? Mm-hmm.
25:54
And the Eagles are a seven-point favorite, and there are gonna be some people that play Philly as sure as the sun comes up, all right? Right.
26:01
And if they lose, they're gonna reenter, but whether they reenter or not, I don't care. If Philly loses, all of a sudden you have a massive overlay.
26:10
Now, Derek Stevens, tremendous job with all these contests, um, with Jeff Benson and the staff, and they don't take any rake. But here you've got an overlay.
26:18
If Philly loses, you gotta enter as many Survivors as you can come up with. Sign up the wife, the girlfriend, whatever, you know, the uncle.
26:26
But if Philly beats Dallas, now we have a problem, Kelly, because I'm, if I don't play that game, I'm 0 and 0. If Kelly Bidlin plays that, you're 1 and 0. Right. You're ahead of me.
26:36
I don't like entering contests where I'm behind before the contest even starts, so that's gonna go ahead and really restrict how many Survivors that I personally am gonna play as opposed to really going crazy if indeed the upset happens on opening night.
26:51
Okay, so let's, uh, l- let's shift to that conversation, and that is how are, how have your feelings on number of Survivor entries, we'll start there with Survivor, number of Survivor entries w- do you have an optimal number in mind these days, or are you playing as many as you can?
27:05
I'm gonna play very few- Okay... if Philly wins, and if Philly loses, I think the limit is 10, and I'm gonna sign up for 10. Oh, 10.
27:13
And I'll get someone else to sign up for 10, and I'll probably have a third person sign up for 10.
27:17
Now, I'd much rather have, like, 30, 40 entries, a piece of them at 1,000 a p- uh, a crack than going Grandisimo and beating my chest. Look at me. Right, yeah.
27:27
But man, I can put 100,000 towards, uh, something that's really a whole lot of luck. Yeah. So I probably am not gonna get in Grandisimo.
27:35
I, I considered signing up, too, but I, you know, just, it's, it's not rich enough for my blood, you know it.
27:41
Um, okay, so I w- we're gonna go over some contests here, and w- we're gonna talk a little bit about the different ones that are offered here in Las Vegas.
27:48
Uh, and there are, there are plenty that are offered outside of Las Vegas w- as well, and which are best for everybody to play in. Uh, Survivor I think has become the obsession topic on this show- The most fun...
27:59
specifically on the Numbers Game, yes. Entertainment. You have to play a Survivor. And Gil said this really from year one, and he's absolutely right about it.
28:06
It is, if you sit on the sidelines, 'cause I did this, I've played in Circa Millions every single year. I didn't get involved with Survivor till two years ago. Uh, it, it ta- or three years ago.
28:16
I've been bounced before week six in every one, and only one of those years I think after, uh, after week three I got past. Steve, it takes over your life, though.
28:24
It really do- like, you g- you care more about this Survivor ticket going than your whole bets for the week, all of that. It is amazing how much, uh, you get into it. So I personally highly recommend it.
28:35
It's a lot of fun. If you can get into the Circa Survivor, absolutely should. Uh, but your thoughts, uh, for, for people out there if they're considering... I mean, this is the time of year.
28:43
We see people outside the studio almost every day. They're in here coming into town to party for the weekend and sign up for contests. Kind of which one should they be targeting? It depends on your bankroll. Yeah.
28:52
All right? So if you don't have a big bankroll, play the stations. It's so much fun. Last Man Standing, college football, NFL, $25 a crack. Get five entries for 100.
29:01
They do a great job with that contest, and you know what? It pays a good chunk if you wind up winning, and you can make a name for yourself.
29:07
Mitch Moss won Last Man Standing, so, you know, that's still on, on his resume- Mm-hmm... and that's fantastic. You can't win it if you're not in it, so, like, that's, that's a contest.
29:17
Now, sometimes I don't enter it because, boy, I gotta drive over there and put in my picks each week, week, and I always regret, you know, not playing it.
29:24
Gilly one ti- one year played, and he's like, "Oh, deadline was last night. Oops." You know? Th- that, that happens with a $25 contest. Yeah. And then it's just scalable.
29:32
It's like if you love college football, you gotta play in the Westgate College Football Contest. I like the, the format.
29:39
Advantage sharps because of the way when y- Wednesday the lines come out, Sat- Friday late afternoon is the deadline.
29:46
A lot of people are gonna have to submit Thursday if they have proxy, so I think if you submit it yourself on Friday, you've got a nice edge there, and it's a nice price point for a mid-level contest.
29:56
And then of course, you know, the bigger contests, so something for everyone. Yeah, there really is. Um, are there any specifics that are, any specific ones that are more fun for you regardless of price?
30:06
Just kind of that you find personally more fun for you to take part in? Oh, Survivor's the most. Survivor. Okay.
30:11
Survivor's the most, you know, and, and what's, what's great about Survivor is it almost forces you, whenever you pick a team, that's like an implied $1,000 money line bet- Right, yeah. Mm-hmm... on that team.
30:20
So if you're betting, like, $50 a game, it's kind of cool to be forced to bet 1,000. [laughs] I, I know. You are abs- you're absolutely right.
30:28
I, I like to think about it, too, where people, people always talk about fa- you know, fan hood and how it comes into play with your betting and stuff, and I- I, I always say the first...
30:36
I, I'm a believer in I respect fans so much that the first time you made a significant bet against your own team, whatever significant means for money-wise for you, you gotta throw that fan cap away.
30:46
Survivor really puts you to the test there, 'cause you might have to be putting that $1,000 on the line against your own team. Well, I'm a mercenary, so I don't care. I, I grew up- Me neither. [laughs]...
30:53
I grew up close to Cincinnati, um, but I can hate the Bengals. And you know what?
30:57
I've got a lot of company because I think the Bengals knocked out more than 50% [laughs] of the participants last year in weeks one and three, so, uh, and they lost another game, too.
31:06
Um, so man, the- these- these- these Bengals, very hated, right, those Tiger Stripes. Oh, man, yeah, especially at the beginning of the season. We're gonna talk about that a little bit.
31:14
We'll see how they change their preparations during preseason. Well, we do have a couple minutes here. Wanted, wanted to bring up, uh, Hulk Hogan. He passed away yesterday.
31:22
We saw that news kinda hit, hit the sports world hard, hit the whole world hard, uh, with, with kind of the legendary figure that he was. I knew you wanted to take a couple minutes just to talk about Hulk Hogan.
31:31
Yeah, so I, I love Hulk Hogan. I love the Rocky III with the, the thunder lips. Two defining moments for the Hulkster.
31:38
One, obviously WrestleMania III, when he slammed the giant who they advertised as, you know, 20 years, never been defeated. All right, that wasn't true, but it was, it was a great moment in the Pontiac Silverdome.
31:48
But a moment that n- not many people know about, Kelly, is that Jake "The Snake" Roberts once DDT'd Hogan in the Piper's, i- i- in the Piper's Pit or the w- whatever they were calling it. Sure.
32:00
And the idea was to set up Hogan against, you know, the heel, Jake "The Snake". The crowd went crazy, cheering when Hogan got DDT'd, though. It backfired, so you can never find a video of that.
32:12
And so that kind of was a, um, a, a, a, a look ahead towards Hogan turning heel that maybe Hogan's not quite as popular as we thought he was. Uh, it was, uh, a, a... I, look, I'm not the biggest wrestling guy.
32:27
I don't even really know what Steve just said. Wyatt Tomchek's sitting in the back right now, probably, uh, pumping his fist at, at, at everything you just said.
32:33
[laughs] But I mean, a, a, a man that was, uh, obviously a legend in the entertainment industry. Had some troubles down the ba- back end of his career, uh, that we know about.
32:42
But he, uh, Hulk Hogan does pass away at the age of 71 yesterday. Rest in peace, a real American. That's what the saddest- Real American... coming through there. Yeah, that is for sure.
32:49
Uh, on the other side, we are going to have Greg Peterson talking through all of his MLB bets for the day. Uh, we will hit on that with him. He's got a bunch to get to, uh, all of them up at vsin.com as well.
33:01
And then when we come back in about 15 minutes, we will talk a little bit more about that Hall of Fame game, how to approach betting it, how we're gonna approach betting preseason here, uh, as well.
33:10
As well as all of Steve's game of the year bets, which you're definitely gonna wanna pay attention to.
33:14
He has, let's see, five down for past week one that you're gonna wanna lock in now if y- you're interested in betting on them. So plenty more to come on the show.
33:24
Again, you can call him Hoops, you can call him the Marathon Man, Greg Peterson up next with a ton of baseball bets.
33:30
And make sure to go to vegasbettingevent.com to check out more about the Fezzik Vegas boot camp coming up next weekend.
33:37
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:58
Welcome back to A Numbers Game. Kelly Pidlin, Steve Fezzik in the Circa studios here to close out the week here on A Numbers Game. And we're gonna go right out to the progressive guest line.
34:09
I don't wanna waste any time here, because he's got a lot of bets to talk to us about. The great Greg Peterson, VSiN host, host of the Baseball Betting Show. You will find all of that over at gunit_81.
34:21
Hit him up on X, Twitter, whatever you wanna call it. Um, and you can always, always talk with Greg there about some of his bets. Greg, thanks for joining the show.
34:30
I wanna waste no time, because you have, I think, 10 bets I'm looking at, uh, for us to get through. Diamondbacks and Pirates, you gotta play on the side and the total here. Where are you looking today? Yep, absolutely.
34:43
And with the, uh, San Diego Padres, it's been really...
34:46
Or with the Pirates, it's been really interesting to watch Mike Burroughs and the way that he's been able to emerge as Burroughs, he's been getting about nine and a half strikeouts per nine innings, and he's backed up by a Pirates team that is dead last in the big leagues in terms of runs per game.
34:59
They've got three guys on the roster, the Pirates do, with more than four home runs this season, and that's a big reason why I did take a shot on the under.
35:07
Because Ryan Nelson, while he's not anything special, he's been able to go out there, posts up about a 352 ERA, seven and a half strikeouts per nine innings. So he's been able to do his part.
35:17
And for the Diamondbacks, they traded Josh Naylor last night. So this team is now in sell mode. They are trading off pieces. Corbin Carroll's up in the same since coming off the injured list.
35:27
So I did take a shot on the under. But that said, with Ryan Nelson, I've actually really liked what I've seen out of him. I think that he's able to do just enough to be able to get the job done here.
35:36
That Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen is rather rough, to say the least. But again, I think the big key is you're going up against a Pirates team that simply cannot hit.
35:43
So took a shot on the Diamondbacks on the money line and the under. Greg, I played Ryan Nelson, uh, first five innings Arizona only. Would you endorse that as a, um, alternative to your bet? Absolutely.
35:56
I went full game personally. But if you wanna go first five and you don't wanna deal with that Diamondbacks bullpen, trust me, I understand why.
36:02
Because it has been a Diamondbacks bullpen that, guys, not named Shelby Miller, have been an adventure all season long, and there are a few teams with just brutal bullpens this year, and the Diamondbacks certainly fit the bill.
36:12
So looking at the Diamondbacks personally on the full game, but if you wanna go first five, I do think that that's a solid look as well. All right, coming up, 7:05 Eastern, first pitch, Phillies and Yankees.
36:23
That is a great game tonight. Yankees minus 162 favorites with Will Warren on the, uh, mound. Phillies plus 133, uh, dog here. You are playing the total, though, not going to the side. What are you liking here, Greg?
36:35
I took a shot on the under. With Taijuan Walker, he's actually been a relatively solid starter this year.
36:40
Last year he was giving up 2.6 home runs per nine innings, was just getting absolutely shelled, and this year he's been able to cut that number in half.
36:47
Now, I was able to find the Phillies at north of a plus 140 on the money line overnight. Still a little bit of, like, plus 139, plus 140.
36:55
If you're able to get above plus 140, I think that you've got a bit of value there, because with the New York Yankees, bullpen has been a little bit suspect recently.
37:03
But for the Phillies, all of a sudden Matt Strahm, Ryan Kerkering, these guys have been a little bit better.
37:08
If you look at the season-long numbers for the Phillies bullpen, it certainly has been rough, but they found a guy in Max Laser who's been able to do a solid job as well.
37:15
For the Yankees, as we know, this is a team that's been really hitting well. Cody Bellinger, Aaron Judge, all those guys doing a rock-solid job.
37:22
But now that we've gotten to a total of 10, just a little bit of a point of no return, especially with a guy, Will Warren, who his fielding independent is about 1.4 points lower than his ERA.
37:32
He's not really giving up home runs. He's getting 10 and a half strikeouts per nine innings. So I trusted in the under, and, like I said, at a plus 140, that'd be my value point on the Phillies money line. Okay.
37:40
I like it. I'm looking at, uh, DraftKings right now. That total actually up to 10 and a half, so you can even get a little bit better number right now, uh, than Greg got overnight.
37:49
Heading to, uh, the, the town that Steve Fezek built, Cincinnati. The Reds, uh, hosting, uh, the Tampa Bay Rays [laughs] here tonight. This is a 7:10 Eastern, uh, first pitch, and you have a play on the side here, sir.
38:03
Yep, absolutely, and we are on to Cincinnati. And I do think that with the Reds, they do provide a little bit of value on the money line. Zach Littell has just been giving up bombs.
38:12
He's giving up about 1.8 home runs per nine innings, and he's very lucky to have a sub four ERA. His fielding independent is sitting above a five, so that's a big concern for him.
38:21
And for the Tampa Bay Rays, it's been a bullpen that has been a little bit hit or miss.
38:25
The top guys, Erik Goorsey, Pete Fairbanks, the closer, they've all been relatively solid, but they've had a lot of long guys come in, not necessarily do their part, so that does give you a little bit of caution.
38:36
And for Nick Martinez, he's doing a good job of keeping things out in front of him. 1.2 home runs, a little bit over two walks allowed per nine innings.
38:43
So while he's not necessarily some sort of a magnificent pitcher or anything like that, he's not gonna go out there and beat himself.
38:49
For this Reds team, they do play in Great American Small Park, as they like to say it, and we've noticed ever since Austin Hayes has gotten back off the injured list, he's been able to give this team some good production as well.
38:58
So being able to get the Reds at the right round picking price, I do like that money line. And at the nine and a half, I think that's gone up a little bit too high.
39:04
I do think that Martinez doing for some positivity, so I like the under. All right. Big American League match up here coming up next, 7:10 Eastern first pitch. Blue Jays at the Tigers. Tigers a minus 114 favorite.
39:18
This has, uh, this has grown a little bit since where you bet it overnight, but you are looking at Detroit here. Yes, I am. Keddr Montero has actually been quite good when he's been at home.
39:28
Overall for the season, in the neighbor of a 4.26, 4.28 ERA.
39:32
Does give up a little bit too much of the default, but the big key here is that the Blue Jays offense has not been quite the same way from home rather than at home.
39:40
Entering into the series has changed a little bit with the 11 spot that they put up on Thursday. They were averaging about 3.85 runs per game away from home, 5.35 runs per game at home.
39:51
A full run and a half per game difference with the Blue Jays. Certainly George Springer, Vlagar Jr., these guys are rounding into form.
39:58
But I do think that a Tigers team that, 13 runs in their last seven games coming off of the All-Star break, I do think that this team is gonna round back into form.
40:06
I think under the radar, by the way, with the Tigers, not being talked about enough has been the injury to Cary Carpenter, such a big part of that lineup.
40:13
And ever since he has been out, it has been a Tigers team that has been struggling a little bit. But I think that this is a good spot for them.
40:19
I do think that that Tigers bullpen that was so good a season ago is gonna round back into form.
40:24
They pretty much, eight innings yesterday in that game against the Blue Jays, so they didn't have to throw out there the trustworthy guys. So right now I'm seeing that total of nine.
40:31
José Berríos on the flip side for the Blue Jays, he's actually been better on the road rather than at home. Just a complete reversal from his career numbers.
40:38
Like, for his career, typically he's, like, a point better with his ERA when he's at home rather than away from home, so it's been a little bit of a wacky year for him. So I did take a shot on this nine under.
40:48
I had to take a shot on the Tigers money line. Greg, whenever I play a home team and I play the under, I almost always put a parlay in as well. So, like, your handicap is Toronto isn't gonna hit in this game.
41:00
That's a big part of the handicap because they're not as good on the road. I also love the correlation. See, Kelly, I'm not anti parlay. I parlay all the time. Yeah. But it, it has to be correlated.
41:09
There has to be a reason. The base winner and I always fight about when to parlay.
41:12
But in this case, if Detroit does indeed win, you get an excellent chance for only an eight and a half inning game, which shortens the game, which makes the under nine even better.
41:21
So, uh, put me down on Greg's two plays, but I wanna parlay it. I wanna play Detroit with the under. Okay, I like it. I'm gonna move on to a game next that I know you're both involved in, Padres at the Cardinals.
41:30
Uh, Steve is on the side with San Diego, uh, uh, this evening, Greg. You are looking at the total in this game, though.
41:38
Yep, absolutely, because you've got a guy in Miles Michaelis who, he just gives up a lot of general contact here. I was able to get in on this at an eight.
41:46
Even at an eight and a half, I would still be taking a look at the over, just mainly because with Miles Michaelis, he doesn't get any strikeouts whatsoever.
41:54
And for Nick Pivetta on the flip side, he's been much different when he's been away from home rather than at home. At home, he's giving up less than 0.7 home runs per nine innings.
42:02
He's posted up an ERA that is below a 2.30. On the road, this is nearly double. On the road, he's been giving up closer to 1.5 home runs per nine innings, and that's just a reason why he didn't pan out in Boston.
42:13
When he was in Boston, he always had better road numbers than home numbers because when he was in Boston, he would give up the default. That ballpark just was not built for him.
42:21
So when Nick Pivetta's on the road, you can oftentimes find a little bit of value on him. And I will say, only plus 113 on the St. Louis Cardinals, I would need a little bit more.
42:30
If I could get a, like, more of a plus 120, then I would consider that. So we're trying to see if that goes up there a little bit more. But that said, I do think that you're gonna be able to get runs in this game.
42:40
I am in on the over All right, I like it. And then we got the battle in Chicago tonight, Cubs and White Sox. Uh, where are you loo- leaning towards in this game, Greg? I did take a shot on the over.
42:51
I was able to get this at an eight, this move up to an eight and a half, and even at the eight and a half, I do like the over. Two guys are just pitching to a ton of contact.
42:58
Shota Imanaga along with Adrian Houser, both below six and a half strikeouts per nine innings. Houser's just been able to really, uh, keep the ball in the yard. He's giving up 0.3 home runs per nine innings.
43:09
I believe he's given up two home runs in, I'd like to say it's 61 innings.
43:13
He's been really good at being able to keep the ball in the yard, but now you go up against the Cubs, a top three offense in terms of generating runs. P.J.
43:20
Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, all those guys have just been magnificent in terms of being able to put bat to ball. And for the Chicago White Sox, offense has come alive for them a little bit more in Shota Imanaga.
43:31
He's got that sterling sub three ERA, fielding independent, a full one and a half points higher.
43:35
Imanaga is not gonna give up a lot of walks, but I also do think that a Cubs bullpen that has been just sort of, shall we say, a bunch of mix ma- mix and match pieces.
43:45
Guys like Ryan Brasier, Daniel Palencia, and company, I don't know if they can sustain what they've done since May.
43:50
So I like the over in this spot, and if you're able to get a big plus number on the White Sox, I was seeing some plus 160s a little bit earlier. Right now, we're still seeing about a plus 165 or so.
44:00
I'd be willing to take a shot on that money line. All right, Greg Peterson, you've got 15 seconds. Eight bets down, two more to go. Where, who else you betting here tonight?
44:09
We're also gonna be taking a look at the Washington Nationals on the money line with Mackenzie Goedert versus Eddie Matthews, and right now we're seeing that total at an eight. I do like the over. All right.
44:19
Thank you so much, Greg. Check him out all over the network. VSiN host here, host of the Baseball Betting Show. We thank you, sir.
44:25
We'll catch up with you next week, and on the other side, we will be talking preseason Football Hall of Fame Game, how to bet it. Stick around. [upbeat rock music]
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