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Jul 25, 2025
A Numbers Game | July 25, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | July 25, 2025 | Hour 2
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44:35
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat rock music] The numbers told the story, they always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Welcome back to a Numbers Game.
0:12
Kelly Bivland, Steve Fezzik here for, uh, with you for one more hour before Gil Alexander returns on Monday and the show becomes his again. So, uh, Steve and I are gonna have some fun this hour.
0:23
We're gonna be talking some blackjack, we're gonna talk some casino stuff. Uh, a lot to hit on. It's been awesome having you in for a couple days, man.
0:30
I, I like being able to talk with you about some things that, you know, Gilboy isn't as interested in talking about. Yeah. And, uh, I mean, Gil will be back on Monday, so everyone will be happy.
0:39
By the way, Gilly's been crushing me at tennis, and, uh, I don't know if I'm ever gonna beat him the rest of my life. Well, y- y- y- you had a close one a couple weeks ago, right?
0:48
Is that, is that where- I- We're hanging that one up in the rafters? There was a miracle at Duck Creek- [laughs]... where he just had... Every... Gilly has to have an off day for me to win. That's the bottom line. Okay.
0:57
[laughs] Well, we're, yeah, we're looking forward to it. We hope Gil got some good rest and relaxation in. I know he was sitting on a beach somewhere for quite a while, so, uh, I think, I think he did that just fine.
1:06
Wanted to circle back to Greg's, uh, some of Greg's MLB bets and yours, because I know there were a couple that you saw on Greg's list that you like, but maybe from a, a First Five perspective. So we spoke about it.
1:17
Uh, I like Arizona's pitcher, but I'm, I'm not betting the bullpen. So Arizona First Five, Greg likes the Nats. I can be talked into Gore and the Nats in the First Five. It's like that movie Rounders. Remember KGB?
1:29
Oh, yeah. Where he's like, "Nyet. Nyet. Not tonight. No more. No more bullpen for Arizona. No more bull..." Just check, check, check, hit, hit, hit, whenever I bet on teams like Atlanta and Washington and Arizona. Nyet.
1:44
Check, check, all night long. He traps me- Pay the-... with the bullpen... [laughs] pay this man his money. He beat me fairs and squares. I don't want... Why did, why does he, why did he have the worst Russian accent?
1:53
That's what I always thought during that entire movie. I want... A great actor. Great actor, terrible accent. [laughs] I never understood that. Great movie.
2:00
Isaiah Wrinkle, if you're watching right now, Isaiah Wrinkle, who's in management at this company now, Steve Fezzik, when, when he first started here, 'kay, he started as a, a sharp associate producer, worked his way up, as he should.
2:13
Smart, talented kid. Poker player. Had never seen Rounders. Wow. And I said, "Your homework right away is to go home and s- watch that movie."
2:20
It's a top- Like- It's not just the top, m- uh, gambling movie, it's like a top 10 movie of all time. I mean, probably Fast Times at Ridgemont High, High and Wall Street would be top two, of course, but...
2:29
I, I mean, I'm, I'm, I'm with you on that. Top, top 10 though- [laughs]... Rounders would be up there for me for sure, man. That is a must watch. If you're a gambler, I don't know how you haven't seen that. I like...
2:37
I've been able to call out Danny Higgins this week. I, I've been able to call out Isaiah. Man, this is fun sitting in this chair. You just get to bring up people like that. That's, that's great.
2:47
All right, Hall of Fame game. We hit on this a little bit earlier. Uh, this is in six days from now, ladies and gentlemen. Before we even hit August. July 31st, 8:00 PM Eastern, Chargers against the Lions.
2:59
We went over this a little bit earlier. Shop around, 'cause there's not, not every book does have lines up for this. FanDuel I'm looking at right now.
3:06
We're seeing the Lions as a one and a half point favorite, even money. Uh, and then a 32 and a half total money line. Lions minus 120, Chargers even money. Steve, we talked a bit about it earlier.
3:18
This has got teaser written all over it to me if I was gonna get involved, but is there an angle that you're looking at specifically for this game? You know, I wanna talk about, like, that extra vig.
3:28
So you mentioned the even money, like, like, the line's basically one, but the books have it at one and a half plus one and a half minus 120, the extra vig is on the Chargers.
3:35
But when you tease, if you have good teaser odds, and DraftKings does have good teaser odds, six points- Now, FanDuel does not, though, who I just referenced, right? Oh. Is that the reason why they hang a one and a half?
3:44
That's a g- that- They'll take, they'll take your teaser money at minus 130 or whatever That's a great point. Yeah, you can't tease at FanDuel because the teaser o- odds, odds are bad. But, like, this is not unusual.
3:52
Like, if you ever see an odd, like, if you see a g- a game move from, like, two, and it's moved to pick, but a, a sportsbook still has, like, a plus two minus 125, that is, like, a great teaser because you know what?
4:03
The minus 125 is irrelevant to the teaser. Doesn't matter anymore, yeah. Yeah, because their, they have their teaser pricing, and it's just gonna be based upon that plus two.
4:11
So, um, there are times where I'll see, like, a minus three go to, like, minus three lay one, minus 140, and I'll do the unthinkable, Kelly.
4:19
I'll tease through the zero in the NFL, which is almost always wrong, but in this case, really they become a four and a half point favorite, right?
4:27
And they're still minus three, and so I'm teasing them up to plus three and a half and the six and a half point teaser. Yeah, the, that...
4:31
I was gonna say, Matt Brown and I have h- have had that conversation where it is, where most people, right, sharp bettors are not gonna think that way of tease through the zero. It's almost a number one rule.
4:41
Don't do it. But there are certain situations where you get a juiced three, and if you really like another leg, six and a half takes you to three and a half on the other side.
4:51
I, I've only done it a couple times that I can remember in my life 'cause you rarely get that situation presented, right? What, what do they say? Like, this is almost like the daredevil that jumps over the cars.
4:59
Like, "Don't do this at home, people." Right, [laughs] exactly. Exactly. "Trained professionals only." Yeah, this is, [laughs] uh, who is it?
5:05
Ben Rozz, one of my favorite, uh, golf handicappers out there, he'll, he'll always tweet out every week s- uh, "My favorite bet," and then, "Someone I'm betting that you should not," right? Yes.
5:14
Something like that, yeah. You might wanna be careful with that. So yeah, Hall of Fame Game going there, and then we talked, uh, a little bit about pre-season action, just overall strategies. I do get involved with it.
5:25
Like you said, I believe what you broke down was perfect. I think it, it, the only thing you can't say about pre-season is that there's no way to make money off of it.
5:33
I think that if you wanna be cautious, stay away for the most part because you just don't trust what you're seeing from depth charts and coaches and all of that stuff. That's fine. That's fine.
5:44
You, you know, you're not gonna lose any money if you don't ma- if you don't make a bet. Um, it will, it is something that I will probably make, I'll say, three to six bets in for during the pre-season. I am very picky.
5:55
Uh, I will be looking at quarterback depth charts heavily like we talked about earlier. Coaches matter in preseason, right? We always see some of the ATS numbers on some of these coaches.
6:06
We know that Sean McVay doesn't care at all. [laughs] Harb- Harbaugh is like, he wouldn't let his, like, grandson beat him at anything, right? He's- Right, exactly. Yeah. Right.
6:13
John Harbaugh's gonna come out there every year and make sure that he gets a couple wins.
6:18
Uh, so just wanna talk a little bit about some strategies that you'd, you utilize for, uh, betting preseason, uh, when that gets started.
6:25
Well, what personally works for me, and you bring up a great point, some people love the quarterback rotations, and they love, um, what was it, Seneca Wallace-type quarterback that's, like, Mr.- Oh... August, you know?
6:35
They're- To, to Rod Taylor, for years that was the guy for me. I-A- Guy- It was awesome. Yeah.
6:38
Guys with wheels, you know, they're trying to make the team, and they're gonna t-tuck it and run in the fourth quarter when all heck breaks loose, and that works for some people.
6:46
What works best for me, I just like having my starters going longer and betting first quarter and first half. Similar, very similar to first five in baseball. I don't wanna worry about the bullpens.
6:55
I don't wanna worry about the third- and fourth-string quarterbacks. I wanna just have more starter time in the first quarter and first half. Where do you think this...
7:03
So we s- so we hear these quotes from Zac Taylor about, okay, we heard it from the spring, this, that they're aware of these slow starts to the season, and it's something they need to correct.
7:12
Then we hear just over the past couple days that he is going to play starters more in the preseason. How do you read into that, Steve? Because I'm still not sure w- how much, how much I can take away from that.
7:24
With the Ferraris that they have on that offense, oh, boy, do I get nervous about leaving out there, them, uh, out, they're, leaving them out there for longer than they should be.
7:34
I like to call this the good story, and I'm a big believer in, what is it, the good story is bet the Bengals and bet the Bengals first quarter, first half. Okay. All right? So, but you know what?
7:45
If you're gonna bet the good story, bet it before everyone else. So when the line first comes up, get down fine on the Bengals.
7:52
Let's say they're minus 120 in the first quarter or first half, and then it steams up to minus 160 because the narrative gets dispersed everywhere, oh, the Bengals are gonna f- really taking this seriously, and then fade it right at post.
8:04
Okay. And bet the other guys. I like that. So Bengals, they have i- their first game, August 7th, Bengals against the Eagles, is the, their first preseason game. Joe Burrow, does he play the whole first half?
8:17
Oh, of course not. One series. I was, okay, I was gonna say, in the first game, we are not seeing that, right? Oh- So how, how aggressive do we really think Cincinnati's gonna be with this?
8:25
Over/under three and a half passes. And I'm w- okay, 'cause I completely agree with your numbers there.
8:31
I'm just, I, what Zac Taylor's talking about, I mean, maybe by the time we get to week three, they're playing the Colts, may- that's when we see some of the starters go a little bit longer, right?
8:40
I, I think week two they play a half, and then week three they play a quarter. Okay. Remember, they didn't play at all, so any- Right. So, so if they play two plays, they just went up by an infinite amount.
8:48
[laughs] That's right. Yeah, way more than they were. Um, okay, I think, yeah, we have enough time here. Let's get to, I wanna get to your game of the year bets, uh, that you have made. This is great.
8:56
I, I don't, I mean, I don't wanna speak for you. Would you say this is one of the things that you do best on, during NFL off-season, picking off these numbers before the season?
9:05
Yes, and this, this isn't rocket science here. I am basically making bets because I made numbers on these games, and the oddsmakers at DraftKings made their numbers, and we disagree, and it's pure power rating.
9:16
So I'm just gonna bet w- the num- the, the good numbers. Bold prediction, all five of these are gonna beat the closing number. Okay, I like that. So we'll start week two.
9:24
Uh, you've got a bet in the Steelers-Seahawks game.
9:27
And, uh, Larry, you, guys in the back, we can just throw this up so everybody can get a, a, start making notes at home for all of these games, 'cause you will, only certain shops with these posted.
9:36
Uh, all these we pulled from DraftKings, right, these numbers. Uh, so go over there if you are, do live in a DraftKing- uh, DraftKings jurisdiction. And Steve, just run through these.
9:44
We start with week two, and we go all the way through week six. One bet a week. Keep it simple. That's right. Uh, Steelers are better than the Seahawks.
9:50
I don't know if you heard this, Mike Tomlin's never had a losing year. He's- What? He, he better win this one because the Seahawks are way down, and with a new quarterback, um, the Steelers minus one half, very cheap.
10:01
So week two we are on the Steelers. Moving f- I'm just gonna run through all these, Kelly, if I can. Yeah, yeah, yeah, absolutely. Uh, week three, the Colts plus one half at the Titans.
10:09
I'm very high on the Titans, but the market isn't gonna be high. The Colts are better than the Titans, and the Titans have one and a half for home field. So how in the heck can the Colts be catching plus one and a half?
10:19
Uh, week four, Raiders plus one half at home versus the Bears. I'm actually high on the Raiders. I think they're underrated. I'm down on the Bears. I think they're overrated.
10:28
So this is a natural bet to back my home team. Uh, week five, Colts minus one half against those same Raiders.
10:36
Hey, the Colts are still better than the Raiders, and the Raiders have to travel all the way to Indy, where the home field's worth at least one half, so the Colts have to be favored closer to three.
10:45
So we're gonna back the Colts week five, laying one half. And one more, week six, the Patriots minus three at the hapless Saints. I don't think the Saints are gonna win a game this year, Kelly. Yeah.
10:56
So all right, they're over/under s- down to five and a half, heading to five.
11:00
Patriots are supposed to win eight and a half, and we're all picking the Patriots to finish second in their division, and picking the Saints to have the worst record in the NFL. And guess what? You know what?
11:09
500 teams, they should be more than minus three against the worst team in the league. So we'll lay the three with the Patriots at the Saints. Yeah, I w- I was looking at these earlier when you sent them over to me.
11:19
I think that is the one that is my favorite as well, and it is...
11:23
[upbeat music] Look, I'm not, I'm not as high on the Patriots this, uh, this off-season as, as seeming a lot of other people are, but man, I think the Saints are a disaster, and you give now five weeks for this Patriots offense to get a little bit more comfortable with each other.
11:37
I, I'm with you. I think laying three is gonna be, it's gonna be more than that by the time, uh, we hit, uh, hit that week. All right, time for some c- uh, some casino gaming talk. Can you pass Steve's blackjack quiz?
11:49
Find out when we come back. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Welcome back to A Numbers Game.
12:05
Kelly Bidlin, Steve Fezzik here with you. I am excited for this, Steve. All right, we're gonna take a little break from the sports talk.
12:11
Uh, we just got a lot of great NFL bets from f- uh, Steve Fezzik, and all those are gonna be up at vsin.com. Make sure to go check that out, games of the year that you can still bet now, one of the things he does best.
12:22
Uh, and like he said, I will completely agree with, most of those numbers will move by the time that weekend hits.
12:27
So a lot of those you noticed around one and a half, uh, tho- those one and a half point favorites, likely gonna mo- g- move closer to that three, and vice versa, right?
12:36
So- And just to answer everyone's questions, do I still like it minus three? Of course I do not. Yep. Gotta get those numbers. Yep, that's a, there's a reason he's doing it now.
12:44
Okay, so right now we are gonna do something a little bit different. We're gonna go through a Steve Fezzik blackjack quiz, okay?
12:50
Now, this is coming from two gentlemen that sit on this desk that together, combined, are banned from over 20 properties from playing blackjack in the city of Las Vegas.
12:59
C- combined is the key word there, 'cause, uh, one guy maybe more than other, another one here. And we're not even any good. That's the irony, Steve. We're not even all that good, okay? It's a little silly.
13:09
But you have a quiz. We're gonna set this up. We got a great graphic made. If you're sitting at home, you wanna play along, okay? We're gonna put up the graphic if you can watch.
13:17
We'll also read through it in case you're listening. If you're in the car, though, like, you know, be careful. This is one of those we don't need you firing live bets in the car while you're driving.
13:25
We also don't need you trying to write down answers to a blackjack, uh, quiz while you're driving too. If you wanna pull over to the side of the road, though, that's okay.
13:31
You can also listen to, uh, listen to us on repeat on podcast form every single day, so maybe that's the best way, uh, to do this. But Steve's blackjack quiz. Steve Fezzik, go ahead, set this up.
13:42
Walk us through each question, 'cause I'm gonna write down my own answers for this.
13:45
And before the first question, I've got a mental note that, like, James Grosjean or Richard Munchkin, like, two of the greatest blackjack players in the world, are probably listening to me be the host and they're like, "How did this guy get on?"
13:54
[laughs] Uh, both those guys are phenomenal. Question number one, you spike a natural. You get a blackjack, the dealer has an ace up. Insurance, you want even money, Kelly, yes or no? Uh, okay.
14:05
So, all right, all right, sorry. I was writing down my own answers. Now repeat the question for everybody? You've got a blackjack. Yes. Dealer has an ace up. Do you wanna insure it and take even money?
14:14
Depends what the count is, but otherwise I... And that's gonna be an answer for, I think, a lot of these, depends on what the count is, Steve. But, uh, if I don't know, I'll be the pr- I'm going to take even money.
14:26
Oh, you're gonna take even money? Okay. I'm going to take even money. Excellent. Uh, question number two, you have a pair of twos and the dealer has a three up.
14:34
Against a three, again, depends a little bit on the count here, but I'm gonna split twos against a three. Mo- more times than not I am splitting twos against a three. Excellent. Uh, you have a 16 and the dealer has a 10.
14:45
O- Question number three, 16 versus a 10.
14:47
Okay, first of all, I'm gonna take a l- I'm gonna go on a little tangent here because I heard, I, I heard a dealer give this advice probably t- a couple months ago when I had some buddies in town playing blackjack, and one of 'em had no idea what he was doing.
14:59
Uh, 16 against a 10, guess what?
15:01
It's the question when you get, when you're sitting at a blackjack table and somebody doesn't know how to play blackjack, they're gonna ask you that question of what do I do here more than any other hand. And guess what?
15:10
You're gonna give them the right advice, and more times than not, they're gonna lose. So it's the toughest part, uh, of giving advice in situations like this.
15:17
16 against 10, completely depends on the count on that one, Steve, but if I'm just walking into a brand-new shoe, brand-new deck, it's gonna be a hit for me on 16, uh, o- every single time.
15:28
The advice I heard from the dealer, though, telling my friend this, I, I, I almost wanted to stand up and give her a round of applause.
15:34
She, she made the point of whatever you decide, don't flip-flop o- on your, uh, of where you wanna go, whether you wanna stand or hit, because mainly what you're gonna do- Consistency...
15:45
i- stay consistent one way or the other, because you're gonna piss off everybody else at the table who's trying to get a flow for how the cards are going.
15:53
It's great advice if you don't wanna get into encounters at the table. Bad blackjack advice, but that, we'll, we'll, we'll address that. Question number four, you have an ace seven, a soft 18 against a dealer ace.
16:04
Okay, so depends on table rules here, right? But otherwise I'm hitting on this more times than not. Okay. And last question, pair of sevens against a dealer 10.
16:15
By the way, this is the hardest blackjack, uh, quiz in the world. Pair of sevens against a dealer 10. This, okay, this one's a little unfair.
16:21
I'm just gonna give the answer bec- u- unfairly because me and you actually talked about this one a little bit more in detail, and I'm gonna let you give the, the more professional answer, but this is a hit for me.
16:31
Uh, w- I, I mean, I, 90-plus percent of the time is a hit on the, uh, the seven, seven versus 10. Excellent. So Kelly, you did very well. Let me go through this.
16:40
Uh, it's gonna be hard to score at home because it's complicated. First question, I got a blackjack. Do I take even money?
16:46
The answer is basic strategy, no, because your expectation is poor, even though it's the surest bet in blackjack. So if you're not card counting, don't take the even money.
16:55
If you are card counting, and you mentioned this, you get a bonus point for this if you mentioned it, um, if your true count is, I believe, above plus three, you go ahead and do insure.
17:03
Even if you got a crappy, like, nine and a seven, you would take insurance. Uh, second question, pair of twos against a three. Kelly, you said to split. I'm gonna give you credit for a correct answer for that. Mm-hmm.
17:13
Uh, you need to be able to double after split, though, and most places do allow you to double after split. I'm gonna give you a bonus credit if you said, so, so if you said, "It depends on the rules of the casino.
17:24
If I'm not allowed to double after split, then I'm just gonna hit," you get a bonus point.
17:28
I'm gonna give you a further bonus point if the count is very negative, then you would never split because you, um, you g- you're gonna turn one bad hand into two bad hands, so you get a bonus point for that as well.
17:39
So Kelly, you, you scored- Oh, look at all the bonus points You can score 15 on this quiz. I, I, I was just re- I'm, no, I'm just realizing I, the first one I did answer completely the opposite way of I meant to.
17:48
But I, no, okay, this is great hearing you on the twos. I'm splitting those almost every time against a three.
17:53
I-And I, I, the count would have to be very, very far, I think, for me to not And to be fair, I don't have the indices for wh- at what point do I not split if double after split.
18:02
It's like, 'cause you- you split the twos, you get an eight or a nine, such a good hand. Yeah, your point is huge on that, though.
18:07
A lot of these are some of, some of the rules at the table, and the double after splitting is a massive one for that situation. So this one, this is the Ryan and Cra- the Cramer question, the 16 against a dealer 10.
18:17
They're talking about how angry they were when people were misplaying this hand. [laughs] And it turns out it's really, really close. So you know what?
18:23
It's so close that if you said hit or if you say that you would stand, I'm gonna give you credit for a correct answer because it's, like, decimal points.
18:30
Now, basic strategy does say to go ahead and hit it, but, um, it's so close that if you play single deck and you have a three-card 16, basic strategy is actually to stand because you're using up- Oh, wow, okay...
18:42
some of the little cards. If you go ahead and say- That makes sense, yeah... if you say you're card counting, if the count's positive, you stand. If it's negative, more little cards, you hit.
18:50
I'm gonna give you a bonus point also, if surrender is offered, it's actually a basic strategy- Yes... to surrender- Yeah... and get back half of your bet, so you, see, bonus points all over the place here.
18:59
Um, if- We, we were, we were discussing that one, Steve, yesterday. How many...
19:03
'Cause th- this is, I mean, surrender is one of the first questions you should ask when you sit down on the ta- at the table, "Hey, is this allowed here," right?
19:10
We were talking about this in Vegas, and this could a- apply a completely different rest of the country. In Vegas, what percentage of tables allow that?
19:18
And I- I guess I, in my experience, it's been way, way more allowed in high-limit rooms, not seen as much on the casino floor. Yeah, and it should be offered more because players surrender way too much.
19:28
It turns out- Right, right... you should surrender your 16 or your 15 against a 10, and everything else- That's about it, yeah...
19:33
everything else is pretty marginal unless the count's really positive, uh, which we'll address on our last question here. Um, but let's move on to question four, ace-seven against the dealer ace.
19:41
This is one of my favorite questions. Um, whether you hit or stand, I'm gonna give you cr- a f- a, a credit for a point, 'cause it's a really, really close call.
19:49
But as it turns out, it depends on the rules of the casino. If the casino stands- Mm-hmm... on ace six, which is pretty rare now, but if they stand on sev- soft 17, you got 18. Right.
19:58
That makes it worth more, so definitely you wanna stand then.
20:01
But if the dealer hits the soft 17, it devalues your ace seven such to the point you're actually supposed to hit ace seven against an ace if they hit, dealer hits the soft 17, which is the majority of places now.
20:13
Um, I'll give you a bonus point also if you're card counting and there's a bunch of 10s left, then you should be more likely to stand. If there's a bunch of little cards, you're more likely to hit.
20:22
So very, very fascinating question for many facets. That's one of my favorite ones, actually, situationally, yeah, 'cause I think a lot of people immediately think, "I got an 18. What are you talking about?
20:30
I'm holding onto this." But no, it's, the, mo- in a lot of situations, I am hitting on that. Yeah, ace seven's one of the coolest hands because of h- how to play it and, and the like.
20:38
And obviously you, you would always hit it against a nine, obviously. Against a nine or 10, most people don't. Right, right. Um, pair of sevens against a dealer 10, this is a really cool question.
20:45
If you say hit, that is the basic strategy, so, you, uh, you get a point for hitting here. If you, you... Two possible bonus points. Single deck is really rare, but I love this situation.
20:56
It turns out you stand in single deck, pair of sevens against a 10- Yeah... because you've devalued the deck of sevens.
21:03
You've used two of them up, so it's so darn hard to draw to 21 that it, the, the math geeks who run all the, the simulations have concluded you stand in a single-deck s- sevens against a 10.
21:15
If you mention that, I'm gonna give you three bonus points, it's so obscure.
21:18
If you mention surrender, if you're card counting and the true count's, I believe, above plus three, you're actually supposed to surrender 14 against a 10. I'll give you a bonus point if you came up with that as well.
21:27
So you got, like, a possible 17 points- All right... from this quiz. You can add it up at home. Um, on- I don't know what it was out of, but yeah, 17 sounds good...
21:35
on the honor system, let me know whoever, whoever did above 13, and we'll s- I'll send you out a, personally, a prize. Oh, there we go. Okay. Well, well, well, hold on then.
21:44
We need to go over the scoring if you're really gonna give out a prize. How were, how were you scoring exactly? How'd I get to a 17? Um, you, well, you get, you get the three...
21:51
On, on this last question, you get one point for hitting, you get one point for mentioning, you know, the surrender option. Okay.
21:56
You get three points for mentioning the single-deck exception, so you could score five points on that last question. Okay, got it, love it.
22:03
Uh, wanna ask you, 'cause this was, I probably sat down at a single-deck table for the first time in years, like a couple weeks ago. Mm-hmm. And I had the thought at some point where I'm like, "You know what?
22:13
I need to get up and le- and leave this table," because there are definitely different basic strategy rules here that I, that I am really not as familiar with, so I left the table.
22:23
How, I, we'll talk about this more on the other side, 'cause I think how many situations like we just went over change from a sing, you know, single deck to a d- just even to a double deck, triple deck. Sure.
22:34
Uh, we'll talk about more of that. Okay, a lot of the, a lot of that, and we're gonna talk a lot about more casino gaming, um, and of course, Steve's list, top five meals under 20 bucks in Las Vegas.
22:44
All of that on the other side. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Need a proxy?
23:00
You can join the world's biggest football contest with one trip to Vegas any time before the season starts.
23:06
Trusted by thousands of players over the last nine seasons, Winners Circle Proxy, uh, Service helped clients win over $9.3 million last two seasons. Learn more about using a trusted proxy service.
23:18
Visit winnerscircleproxy.com/vsin. Hey, guess what, Steve? We get tweets. We do actually get a few tweets, so I wanna go through a few of these. I, I, I... Sorry, I'm, I'm juggling a lot here, doing a show with Steve.
23:30
We're talking about a lot of fun things like blackjack. Sorry if I missed a couple of these ones early.
23:35
Cody tweeting in, "A great way to tease next Thursday is to tease the Dog in the Hall of Fame game with that night's CFL game. Note you can only tease CFL games at Caesars." Your thoughts on that one, Steve?
23:50
You know, I, it wouldn't surprise me if it wasn't good, but I lack the CFL acumen to know what the distribution of points are, whether it is a profitable play or not.
24:00
Yeah, and, uh, the other one I'd bring up there is Caesars teaser pricing, right? Probably not the greatest. Um, I gotta, you know, I gotta check, you know, and check by the state.
24:09
The Caesars teaser prices vary by state [laughs] and the ru- Do they really? Ties lose in, like, Illinois, and ties push in Nevada Wow, okay. Uh, all right, this one from Andrew tweeting in.
24:20
Uh, we got, we got a lot of tweets about the blackjack segment, so I don't know, maybe that's gonna have to be something a little bit more regular on this show. Who knows?
24:26
Uh, he tweets in, "Was playing a few months ago and had a guy stand on, on 2-2 because," quote, " 'I didn't wanna take the dealer's bus card.'
24:35
I've never seen a dealer more confused in my life, and I'll never play [laughs] $15 minimum again."
24:40
[laughs] Y- you know, one caveat that I will say, and obviously this wasn't the case, it's always possible that he was somehow hole carding and the, and the dealer was tipping the next card- Sh-...
24:50
or he was sequencing, and he knew the dealer had a 10 underneath, and he knew the next card was a 10, but the probability of that is, like, the probability of hitting a 14-team parlay. Yeah, I, I, I...
24:59
Yeah, I was gonna say, Steve always looking out- [laughs]... for the everyman out there. I'm gonna guess, though, we got that tweet because there were th- about three other things he did before that, but- Sure...
25:08
it probably tipped this guy off it was a good time to leave the table. He... You know what, though? L- w- we'll talk table etiquette real quick here, too. I understand it's, it's...
25:17
It- you can get frustrated with other players at the table, but you know what? Especially here in Vegas, you're gonna get a lot of drunk, dumb people coming up, looking to play, have a good time. I...
25:27
In my, in my opinion, Steve, it's on you to be at the right table. So if you've got a problem with some of the people at the table, get up and go to a different table. It, it...
25:35
To, to use an analogy, it's like you're, you know, you're, you're a golfer that shoots 90. Right. Like, most basic strategy players, all right? Man, I wish I shot 90.
25:42
So, so be careful, like, like, screaming at all these players, like, at how stupid they are and that they s- y- and that they vary on their 16 against a 10, sometimes hit, sometimes stand, they're inconsistent, et cetera.
25:54
For all you know, Tiger Woods might be sitting at first base. [laughs] Right. And you're like, and, and, and you're, like, criticizing how he swings his Big Bertha. All right? Right.
26:00
And also, how many times have you seen that? The guy who gets angry at someone else's play, and I'm like, "Dude, I just saw you screw up four times in the past 10 hands."
26:07
Pe- people get furious at me, saying I'm, I'm the biggest fish they've ever seen. Eh, sometimes they're probably right if I'm drinking. [laughs] Chris Heath, we love you. He tw- uh, he tweets in, "Golden radio.
26:17
Hats off, gentlemen," on the blackjack- Ooh... segment. Okay, all right. Thank you, Chris, appreciate it. And Jim Devin, uh, he always tweets in as well, "Great segment on blackjack, one of the best ever."
26:27
Well, thank you, Jim. We will take that. Um, I wanted to f- uh, we got a bunch to get to before we end the sh- end the show here.
26:33
Wanted to follow up, uh, and this is probably more of a, just, like, personal interest question, 'cause I don't really know how many properties we're really talking about with single-deck, uh, blackjack these days.
26:42
But how many hands, we did talk about a couple there, how many hands, when it comes to basic strategy, would you say change when it goes to single-deck blackjack?
26:51
Boy, I'm gonna get this wrong, so my critics will be all over me. Really? I'm really not that good at blackjack.
26:54
But I know there's s- there's weird examples, like ace eight, you actually double against a five, for instance. Okay. We talked about the pair of sevens against a 10 is a stand and not a hit.
27:04
So there's, like, you know, uh, b- three or four, you know, deviations such that it's just not that important. You don't really need to know that. Hey, why so much talk about blackjack?
27:12
Blackjack and craps are two great games where if you just know basic strategy in blackjack, follow the card, you're at about a half percent disadvantage.
27:20
If you, in craps, if you take your two times or more odds, you're at about a half percent disadvantage, um,.6% if you take, you know, your two times odds. Contrast that by you play roulette, you're at a 5% disadvantage.
27:32
Keno, close to 20%. Um, slot machines, 10%.
27:36
So you're literally at 20 times the disadvantage on some of these other games, and that's why you should be playing blackjack, or if you just wanna have a good time, drink, not think, and play craps, and take your odds, and don't bet any of the long shots, and you'll be just fine.
27:49
So I had, I had a couple, uh, I've had a couple different friends i- in town, and we were talking about craps. I, I've brought up a couple stories about you before in the past, 'cause it is...
27:58
I have one friend who is very comfortable, loves this. I mean, he will come to Vegas just to do this. He just wants to play the pass line and get his free drinks.
28:07
And once I kinda let him know about rewards stuff, too, it was even... He got far more interested in it. Only play on the five time points day or higher when they're giving away a car.
28:16
And I always tell Scott Seidenberg this, I'm, I'm like, "If you get killed, don't storm out of the place. Go and see your host and ask for a discretionary pizza pie.
28:25
More often than not, if they see you've done lousy, they'll, uh, take care of you."
28:28
If there is, uh, a- I don't know if I've learned anything greater in the town of Las Vegas from Steve Fezzik than that last point right there. It is, uh, it never hurts to ask.
28:37
Never hurts to ask, and you'll be shocked at what they give you sometimes. And just stay wi- s- just say adamantly, "Aria always takes care of me." [laughs] Aria takes care of me. Even if you've never been in the place.
28:45
[laughs] I like that. All right. All right, we're gonna get to the meal list now, okay? I, I probably shouldn't have bur- buried this this long, 'cause I think there's gonna be a lot of people interested in this.
28:53
You know what it's like. You come to Vegas, you're all, you're all ready to party. You go out that first night, you spend way too much on dinner, drinks.
29:01
You hit the club, you wind up at one of these blackjack tables, uh, barely able to stand, and you give away too much of your money. Oh, boy, what am I gonna do for the rest of the weekend? Steve Fezzik's got your answer.
29:11
The five best meals in town for under 20 bucks, Steve. Where do we start? So Greg Peterson wants to go to Texas Roadhouse, but that's gonna run you 20, and we're gonna spend far less than that.
29:22
You always have to get a player's card to qualify for this stuff. Okay, that is important, yes. So get your player's card, head to Station right now, 24/7, $6 burger and fries. It's pretty darn good.
29:34
By the way, if you do this on Monday and you're over age 50, you can pay, and pay, pay with your points. It's $3 with points. So, uh, either way, a great deal.
29:42
Okay, so I, I have been to and b- go to many Stations properties. Is this, this available at the Classic Cafe? Is that where you're going for this?
29:51
Yes, at the cafe at Green Valley or at Palace Station or Red Rock Station, et cetera. And it's the same deal at all, every Stations property. I... It may not be- Okay...
29:58
at the, at, at the little smaller ones, the Wildfires or whatever they c- they, that they're, they're calling them. But most of them. Yes.
30:03
Okay, most of them that people would be s- okay, now, now we get to the second one that I have taken advantage of way too many times that I don't even wanna know about, the great one at the South Point.
30:11
So the South Point has all of these specials. I just picked out one of them. Midnight special from midnight until 6:00 A.M., s- $8 steak and eggs.
30:19
If you go ahead, actually, Stations has half-point Wednesday for the older crowd. South Point has half-point Monday for the older crowd. So if you're old, you can eat the, the steak and eggs for four bucks.
30:30
But you can get, you know, your cheeseburger for $5. You can get your ham and eggs for $6. Great, um, value across the boards at the cafe.
30:39
By the way, show up, the, the, the quality move, show up at 11:55, and then go ahead and sit at the counter at, at 11:56, and the server will say, "You can't order it for two minutes."
30:50
And, uh, there will always be seating five minutes before midnight. Okay, this is, this is...
30:54
That was a clutch point by Steve, 'cause I will tell you, if you think you're gonna show up at the South Point on a weekend and that you're gonna be able to walk right in Uh-uh.
31:02
There's usually a line of about 40 people waiting to get in there to take advantage of these deals.
31:07
So, okay, what I'm excited to talk about next, I was out getting, uh, my, uh, uh, passport renewed in Henderson here, uh, about six months ago. Drove by The Pass, never been in there.
31:18
I said, "That looks like a casino that would be fun for Kelly. I should check that out." You've got a meal there, though. So this is old Henderson. It's on Water Street. There's, like, a hockey stadium there.
31:26
It's really cool and, like, like, like, Wands- Looks like a different town... Wands, Flaming Fajitas, all kinds of good restaurants and the like.
31:32
But at The Pass, they have a $17 prime rib special, but with your player's card, it's $9.99, so a 10 doll- It's quite good. Full dinner, 10 bucks.
31:42
Uh, I believe they offer that whenever the cafe is open, so do take advantage. Okay, I like it. And then to round out the list, two at Ellis Island.
31:50
And Steve, I don't know where Ellis Island ranks on your favorite locations in Las Vegas, but I think it's up there as one of the not flashy casinos in town.
32:01
Yeah, so it's on Koval and Flamingo, so if you're walking from the Horseshoe or the Cromwell, it's right around half a mile. Easy walk, all right? And they just have great food deals.
32:10
I k- like, kinda like their blackjack, but they don't want me to play blackjack anymore. That's fine. I still go over there. They make their... They craft their own beer, their own root beer.
32:18
It's an- amazing, but the food deals, so good. You can go to the, the cafe, get a $10 steak with all the trimmings, or you can go ahead and go into the barbecue, and you can get $18 barbecue chicken and ribs, full...
32:32
You, you can get a full slab of ribs or half a, a slab and the chicken. It's so good. Comes with the cornbread, the baked beans, the coleslaw, everything. And, uh, you can feed a family of three with it.
32:42
So Ellis Island, the gem in terms of deals in Vegas. I don't know that I've ever seen, uh, S- Steve as angry with me as I probably said this two years ago to you.
32:53
We were talking about some, uh, casinos, and Ellis Island, I had only been to once, and you, and you said to me, "You have to go there and eat the bar- e- eat at the barbecue place."
33:02
I still have not eaten at the barbecue place. Oh, I'm gonna ch- I'm gonna choke slam you. [laughs] Jesus. All right, that's gonna be a, that's gonna have to be a meal. I'll pay for that one, okay? I can handle that. $18?
33:10
Yeah, no problem. Uh, I will take care of that one. Um, all right, that was fun.
33:14
I think that is going to be helpful for a lot of people that, uh, either live here in Vegas or come to visit, 'cause we've all been there, when the money gets tight, uh, on those final couple days of your Las Vegas trip.
33:25
All right, when we come back, we're gonna go through all the bets from today's show. We're gonna see what Steve learned over a couple days of hosting on VSiN. Uh, maybe a couple surprises along the way.
33:35
Uh, whole lot more to talk about coming up next.
33:37
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:58
Final segment of A Numbers Game for myself, Kelly Bidlin, and Steve Fezzik. Steve, I think we did a pretty good job over the past couple days.
34:06
Uh, some quality feedback at least on Twitter, uh, about our casino conversations, where I think we thrive. And, you know, our producer Savannah has, like, a background. Her father- Yes... has, has a huge executive host.
34:19
And so, um, I'm, I'm, I'm anticipating there'll be a segment on that in the forthcoming, in the next couple weeks.
34:25
Oh, uh, y- you never know when I'm gonna try to nudge more, uh, more from Savannah to talk about some of that stuff. You never know. She's always down for a Love Island conversation, I know that much.
34:33
We do get a couple more tweets. Todd Bob Horowitz, our man, he did tweet in, "You guys did a great job.
34:38
Wish, wish I could go to Steve's event, but just had surgery and don't know the out- uh, don't know that I could last. Enjoyed the show." Todd, hope you're doing okay, man. Hope you're doing well.
34:48
We will miss you, uh, next week. I'll be down there hanging out with Steve at his event as well. And then James Scott, uh, tweeting in, always does a great job tweeting into the show, "Ellis Island BBQ hits every time.
34:59
We go there every time we go to Vegas. Best discovery ever, uh, by my parents before I could even go to Vegas." He agrees with you. Kelly Bidlin, never been despite me asking him to go every week. You have. You have.
35:12
You have asked me multiple times. All right, let's get to G Bank Best Bets, all of our best bets. Every, all the best bets from every show brought to you b- uh, by G Bank, the official bank of VSiN.
35:23
Steve, this is all you and Greg Peterson. I'm gonna start, uh, start you with your NFL Game of the Year bets. Yeah, so Week 2, Steelers. These are all DraftKings, by the way.
35:32
Week 2, Steelers minus one half versus Seahawks. Week 3, Colts plus one and a half at Titans. Week 4, Raiders plus one and a half against the overrated Chicago Bears.
35:42
Week 5, Colts minus one and a half versus the Raiders. And Week 6, this would be my best bet, the New England Patriots minus three at the Saints.
35:51
Bold prediction, Kelly, this game will close minus 10 Six, and we're laying minus three Whoo, six. We're getting all the way to six. Okay, all right. I was g- I was gonna say five and a half, but okay, s- six I'll take.
36:03
I'll allow that. All right, baseball today, you've got four sides, uh, and then also a college football game total that I get to talk about.
36:10
Yeah, so Padres minus 133, Giants minus 128, Mariners minus 130, Texas Rangers, a lot of chalk, minus 166, and college football, Matt Youmans will be rooting for me to win this one as he's out for his- That's right...
36:23
great Hawaii vacation. Ah, no, working, working event. Stanford, Hawaii under 54 and a half. That's right, Matt Youmans and Tim Murray out in Hawaii. It's a, it's a tough, tough work trip.
36:33
I feel bad for both of those guys. Tim was doing, like, Double-A baseball, and now he's- [laughs]... and now he's broadcasting from Hawaii. Yes. That's right. Tim all over the place. Love both those guys.
36:42
Hope they have a great time. I don't know if, uh, I don't know if Matt Youmans has dual residency yet, but he should at this point, uh, uh, between states. All right, Greg Peterson, a whole lot of baseball bets.
36:51
Reminder, every, all of these can be found at vsin.com. He is on the Diamondbacks moneyline. Uh, he got it minus 109 last night. He's also on the under nine in that game against the Pirates. Phillies, Yankees under 10.
37:06
Reds moneyline, that is about even money, minus 101 is where he got it at. And then Tigers moneyline minus 104. And we roll on, Blue Jays, Tigers under nine. And we parlay those two together 'cause they're correlated.
37:20
There you go. That's what Steve's doing. I like that. Uh, Padres, Cardinals over eight.
37:25
Uh, next on the list for Greg, Cubs, White Sox over eight, and then he went Nationals moneyline plus 120, and Nationals, Twins over eight. So all of your best bets there.
37:36
Bought, uh, brought to you by G-Bank, and introducing the $500 trifecta from G-Bank, First Bet, and VSiN. All you need to do is open a G-Bank Visa Signature credit card.
37:48
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37:58
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38:11
Head over to vsin.com/gbank to check out more on that. All right. Freeze it. Freeze it I have not gotten my G-Bank. You haven't gotten to Ellis Island, and I haven't gotten my G-Bank card, and it- Get it together...
38:22
and it's such a good deal. Like, we had that great deal at the Rio, and I never got there in time. Let me not drop the ball again and lose my $500 bonuses here.
38:32
So thank you for the G-Bank, keeps giving me all this information, and let make that happen today. Get signed up with G-Bank. Yeah, I, man, you never got to the tier matching? You went there and you left?
38:41
You said it was too long. I went there, I went there the last day, and it was like a two-hour line, and I just couldn't do it.
38:47
I was l- I was l- I guess I beat the crowd 'cause I got there early enough before some of the influencers were talking it up in town, right? And then I think that kind of blew up a bit.
38:54
Yeah, I was actually surprised at how simple the process was, right? Where you know where you have to do the triple check with the guy that he's hearing you right, right? Like, "You're gonna tier match me here, right?
39:04
Like this?" Yeah, this ha- And he's like, "Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah." This happened my tier match. I had a Seven Star card, and I went and got my Wynn black card. Mm.
39:09
They were doing the tier match, which included two free rounds of golf. Yeah, that's a big one right there. I'm like, "There's no way this is gonna work."
39:15
[laughs] And I went to see my host, and I'm like, "Uh, I don't play very much, but I'd like to play golf." And he punches me up, and I'm like, "Oh, here comes the denial." Right, yeah.
39:23
And like, just like the Raiders guy that's like, has the guaranteed contract. Right. And he's like, "When do you wanna play?" "When do I wanna play?" [laughs] "I wanna play this week." And it, uh, was just fabulous.
39:31
They treated us great. Oh, that is awesome. Um, okay, so we've got a couple other things to get to before the show gets over. We did get the question yesterday about the, uh, the stress-free bets, right?
39:43
The, the free bets, the bonus bets, and I know you had, uh, you, you, you wanted a w- a couple minutes to think about this, uh, but you came back later today with an answer for this question.
39:51
Yeah, and shout out Dan Abrams sent me some, like, like, high-level nuclear physics on the stress-free bet, but I, I think I understand it. But the bottom line is I'm gonna make it very stressful, because- Good, good...
40:01
what you wanna do, you wanna make a bet, this sounds so counterintuitive. [laughs] Kelly, you, you only get a bonus if you lose, all right? Also, shout out to Dan Abrams, who does that to me often too.
40:10
It's the, it's the, "Hey, you're, I'm, I'm, I'm trying to help you, but oh boy, did I, I, this is, I gotta learn a lot." Yeah. Open up a can of worms here- You open up a can, yeah... with, with the PhD math guys. Right.
40:19
Um, because you only get this free bet if you lose your bet, you actually wanna make a bet that's likely to lose. Yeah. I know that sounds ridiculous. So you wanna bet a big underdog.
40:29
So it's actually very stressful indeed, because you wanna bet a big underdog that's likely to lose for your stress-free bet, and then when they give you the free bet after it loses, you wanna bet another big underdog that's likely to lose as well.
40:40
So you wind up being very stressed, and you lose money with a stress-free bet. However, I'm gonna give you one, I'm gonna pull back a curtain, a little pro tip. Okay, okay.
40:47
So let's say you're teasing the heck out of a basic strategy teaser, so like week one, Denver, right? So Denver's laying seven and a half. You're teasing them down to, like, minus one for instance, all right?
40:58
Six and a half point teasers, and you bet your balls off on this teaser, all right?
41:02
Here's where the stress-free bet is so good, because you come in and you play their opponent on the moneyline with your stress-free bet- Ooh...
41:09
and your bonus bets, and you actually want it to lose because you just want all your teasers to win. So you, it's teaser protection with these big underdog moneyline bets that protect your, your wong teasers.
41:22
Okay, I love that answer. I was gonna say, I actually think you're I, I think you're giving too many people credit out there for, for the going on the long shots on the, on the free bets.
41:32
I actually think, I think that there are more higher level betters that, that might be harder for their, to wrap their minds around that one.
41:39
Uh, I, I think, I, I think if you're telling someone to use a free bet on a, uh, 50 to 1 shot or something [laughs] in golf that week, they're, most of those guys aren't gonna have a problem with that.
41:48
But your last point, the teaser protection, that's a great way to utilize that. But you know, really the 50 to 1 bet is, is fantastic.
41:54
And if you ever get, like, a free bet, like in a casino, like I, I talk about roulette having horrendous odds and being a 5% disadvantage game, but, like, if they take away your free chip that you're betting- Mm-hmm...
42:04
it's actually optimal because if you go to the blackjack table, it's worth 50 cents on the dollar- Right... if you win about half the time, or craps.
42:10
But it's worth, like, like, 90 cents on the dollar if you bet it on a number on a roulette wheel, so but most of the time it's gonna lose is the problem. Right, right. Yeah, I, I'll, I'll...
42:19
I'm just being reminded, uh, of one now 'cause this is one of my favorite bets I've made in the past year. It's al- almost officially a year ago.
42:26
Uh, not many, not that we get many free bet options here in Vegas, so I'm down in Florida, I'm in a guys' trip, we're fishing in the Keys, and this is the first time I sign up for Hard Rock. Way better than Montreal.
42:37
Oh, y- way b- yeah. Yes. [laughs] Yes. Agreed with that. Um- Sorry, Canada. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Love, love you Canada, but yes, I'll take the Keys over Montreal.
42:45
Um, anyways, I'm down there, and it's during the Summer Olympics, right? And I've g- I am signed up for Hard Rock, I'm doing some betting on Hard Rock, and they give me a $100 free bet, right?
42:55
And I'm like, "Okay, I gotta use this before I get out of here." So I hit up our, my g- our good friend Drew Dincic, who is a big time Olympic b- Olympics bettor. I'm like, "Look, I got $100 free bet. What, what...
43:06
Give me something to use this on." Give me a pole vaulter, right. Right, yeah. And, and you know- Marathoner... a- and I knew that as well. Give me a little bit of a longer shot to use this on, right? Right.
43:13
So he goes, okay, the kid's name was Cole something. I th- I said I would never forget the kid's name and I did. Cole something, he won the marathon. American, okay?
43:23
Drew goes, "Look for a top three market on him," and it would be, like, uh, it would be, like, five to one or something like that. Mm-hmm. And of course Hard Rock didn't have that listed.
43:32
It was o- outright winner only, and I was like, "All right, whatever." 12 to one, yeah. 15 to one, I'll take a shot on it. Kid wins, cash that fr- uh, cash that. It was great.
43:41
So, uh, yeah, those are the best ways I think to utilize those. I wanna be the whale capper. Drew Dincic, like, sending pictures, like he's floating in Hawaii. He's doing podcasts in the Pacific Ocean.
43:51
That man has a good life. And you know what? And he can forecast apparently whether there's gonna be, like, some kind of natural disaster so he can avoid those. He has, he has, he has a full-time real job.
44:00
[laughs] He's on vacation every week. I don't understand how he has enough time in the day. He might have a clone actually is how he's getting it all done. Uh, Steve, it was a lot of fun these past couple days.
44:08
Thanks for hanging out. Gil Alexander back on Monday. A Numbers Game back with Gil and Kelly. Up next we do have Money Moves, and I believe I see both Stormy and JVT in studio.
44:21
L- uh, stick around for those guys, Prop Points, and Make It Rain after that. We can still do more, and here comes JVT and Stormy to do that. [upbeat music]
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