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Jul 28, 2025
A Numbers Game | July 28, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | July 28, 2025 | Hour 2
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of the Numbers Game at VSiN, Esports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course Sirius XM Channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. That's Kelly Bittler right there, everybody.
0:20
Hey, how we doing? I'm good, man. How we doing so far? Are we okay? Doing great. Oh, just curious. Okay. Uh, we get to- Still right back to being comfortable right over here, right in my seat.
0:29
[laughs] So Kelly's like, "I'd like a word cap. Cap me at 200 words a show." Uh, we get tweets of Beating The Book. This is from, uh, let's see. Should I just... I'm gonna, I'm gonna, Ron Burgundy through these.
0:43
Andrew Rin, uh, "Looking to hopefully go back-to-back with the Tigers 25 to one. Carpenter," oh, I guess he did, I did, guess he did the Tigers last month is, is what he's saying. "Carpenter is back.
0:54
Assume they'll add bullpen help. Everyone on schedule is a likely seller except Phils and Astros, and Scuba likely going August 1st, so you get maximum Scuba." I see what he's saying.
1:04
That's, that's also a good way to, to, uh, handicap your best pitchers, see if they line up with the start- Yeah... of the month. That's right. Uh, Thomas O'Toole, "Uh, it's my birthday today, gents.
1:14
Uh, can I get a mini shout-out while you tell me how the Steelers [laughs] are going to make the playoffs and Penn State is going to win the Big 10? Moms from, uh, Pennsylvania and a PSU alum."
1:26
A lot of people super high on Penn State. Kelly, would you like to tell them about how the Steelers are gonna make the playoffs?
1:31
I, I, we sat here and we did one segment last week, it was, uh, it was called Fezzik Fights the Narratives. Oh, I like that.
1:39
And it was all aga- it was all about him talking about how overrated, uh, the Chiefs and the Steelers are off of, coming off of last year, and how he was gonna look to fade them in different ways.
1:48
And I just, I had to sat here, sit here and just listen. I was like, "I, Steve, I agree with you, but I can't, I can't back it this year. I can't back it up with money."
1:55
Stevie, like you and I, was part of the under brigade, brigade on the, uh, Steelers last year. Yeah. I, I'm, I'm tired of getting my head smashed. [laughs] Michael, uh, Michael Salvino, "Gil, welcome back.
2:05
Labor Day weekend I'll be dining at Pierro's. First time trying it. What are your thoughts?" Um, Pierro's is a Vegas staple. It's where a scene in Casino was shot.
2:15
Uh, I went with Cr- I went with Roxy and Chrissy once, and then I went with Crack the first time I ever went, and Crack took me upstairs to the offices. That was a whole experience. It's a, it's great. You gotta go once.
2:26
You ever been to Pierro's? Yeah, uh, y- it's the one that's, like, right here, right? It's by the, it's by the Westgate. Yes, I've been there, yes.
2:32
Yeah, I haven't been though in, like, six or seven years, something like that. Oh, yeah, me neither. Me neither. Um, this is, we get text also. Michael Montesano. It is really cool, though.
2:40
Michael Montesano, "Welcome back. I did a cross," thank you, Michael, "I did a cross sport parlay a couple days ago.
2:46
Texas Rangers to make the playoffs, Bills to win the division, and Texas Longhorns to win the natty plus 2083." So just over 20 to one. Do better. [laughs] Do better? Do better, Montesano, come on. [laughs] Montesano.
3:02
He is, he is always firing. I love it. [laughs] Do we have, do we have, do we not? We don't have our guest? We don't have TA yet. Oh, we don't have our guest. Okay. All right. We're, we're still efforting TA.
3:10
Uh, we'll get to that. Um, let me read some more while we're at it, though.
3:15
This is from, oh, uh, Brian Schaefer is worried that the Rangers, he, he says, "You can't make these bets until July 31st," 'cause he says the Rangers might trade key pieces in the next few days.
3:25
They're not trading key pieces, the Rangers. That's a good point, though. It's a good point for other teams, but I'm, I'm not worried about that at all with the Rangers. Okay. I just am not. Um- Yeah, no, you're right.
3:34
It de- it depends team to team, but yeah, definitely if there are, if there's a team you're worried about doing that, you might as well wait.
3:41
Spence- You know, plus nu- you know, plus shop numbers 'cause, I mean, Caesar's the only one with it up right now, right? I haven't seen it at DraftKings either. Let's put it this way.
3:48
If you were inclined to bet the San Francisco Giants, right? I would say that's correct. Mm. Like, 'cause if the Giants were to lose two or three more games, like, I don't know what we're doing here.
3:59
Then it becomes a thing. Right. I would wait. So then you wait, then you get more shops, uh, more shops to compare prices at too. Yep. Absolutely. I was not passing up the 30 to one on the Rangers. "Bi-week picks.
4:10
When are you going to have the pioneer Dr. Bob on to talk, uh, CF, college football season win totals?" Well, Bob will be here at Bet Bash next week, so we'll try to get him in studio. Wow, okay.
4:19
I don't know if he's gonna reveal any of his season win totals, but I'll try to prod. And then Spence, "Really enjoyed Kelly and Fezz last week. Fezz needs his own show." Oh, no. [laughs] Oh, man.
4:30
You rather have a Fezz show? Yeah, we g- I, uh, we gotta be careful with that. I think it would be great. I think it would be great.
4:35
We had, we did one segment, the mo- most feedback we got all week was we did a segment on just a blackjack quiz on, like, what people, you know, Fezzik doing his, his- Oh, his-...
4:46
his common thing of, like, what, what are things people screw up the most? Oh, well, here's what the dealer is showing. Yeah, yeah, yeah. What should you do? Gotcha. We got a flood of tweets about that.
4:54
Oh, people love that stuff. Yeah. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, uh, there are many football preview guides. VSiN's own is spectacular, led by the great Adam Burke.
5:03
Uh, Aaron Schatz, of course, has been a staple on this show for many years. Warren Sharp has his football preview guide. But you know whose is free? This gentleman right here. He's also a, uh, a annual mega podcast.
5:13
You can follow him on Twitter @clevta. That's C-L-E-V-T-A. Uh, he joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. Clevanalytics.com is also where you can find him. How you doing, TA? What's happening? Hey, good, guys.
5:26
How are you doing? We're, we're getting close. G- getting close. Getting close, what is it, like 40 days now till the regular season? Yeah. Something like that. We're sort of in that range.
5:34
Let me just ask you this before, and, and I, I promo'd you earlier. I just wanna give you your cred here. Last year, Kevin O'Connell, coach of the year, 28 to one, bang.
5:42
You predicted Kansas City to lose to Philadelphia in the Super Bowl, bang again. Dallas to miss the playoffs. Minnesota, Seattle to not only go over their win totals, but the Vikings as your top NFC playoff sleeper.
5:53
What is your, before we get into your thoughts this year, just from a, I'm, I'm just curious just as, as, you know, a guy who's, who's interested in your future doing this, is this, do you plan on this always being free?
6:05
What's your angle with your football preview guide? Yes, I've been doing this for four years. Um, this is my, um, yeah, so it's a couple, couple years in the making. But yeah, I, uh, look, I don't do this for a living.
6:17
This is, uh, I, I do have a good career, and I, but I just, you know, obsess over the NFL and, you know, uh, obviously bet on the NFL personally, um, and, and run this, uh, uh, s- uh, website on the side.
6:30
So, you know, I have a passion for it, and like for me, it really does help me get ready for the season, and it helps my personal futures betting, kind of putting all of this on t- uh, on paper, getting all this research done.
6:44
You know, it's, it's an exhaustive process. It's a couple months in the making, but, you know, and putting it all on paper, it, you know, takes time, but, you know, it does help me personally.
6:52
So I, it's not like I don't get any benefit for doing it.
6:55
Uh, and honestly, I just, at the end of the day, like, you know, charging, um, you know, a handful of bucks for, uh, for this, uh, it's not gonna really move the needle for me.
7:05
And so I, I, you know, look, I like to stand out and, and be kinda one of one in terms of giving out a, a in-depth preview, uh, to this degree, uh, and doing it for free.
7:15
So, uh, I feel like, you know, there, there's content that, that people wanna read and don't necessarily wanna pay for, and, you know, they don't have to, have to pay for mine.
7:23
So I, I'm gonna do it for free as long as I can, uh, as long as my, uh, wife will let me spend the time, uh, in the off-season doing it.
7:31
And so, uh, yeah, I, you know, I, it's one of those things where, you know, I could charge, but I just, I don't really see a reason for it. Well, we love that, and, uh, we appreciate it.
7:40
And Kelly and I, the thing that we reference the most, and we'll get to awards with you here momentarily, uh, we reference your parameters, your, for every award.
7:49
Like for MVP, you know, eight out of the last nine have been this, or 10 out of the last 12 have fallen into this category. We reference that throughout the football season when we're considering awards bets.
8:01
So it's something that lives for us throughout the year, and let's get into it. I don't wanna give away the whole preview guide 'cause I want people to go to your Twitter and then link to it.
8:09
But let's just start with, you mention in your guide, since the year 2000, at least one team with a win total of eight or less has made the playoffs in every season.
8:18
In 21 of the last 25 years, at least two teams have made it, including five teams last year. Washington, Denver, Tampa, Minnesota, Pittsburgh. As we mentioned, you called, um, the Vikings on, i- in that regard.
8:31
Which teams then, with a total, with a win total of eight or less, are you picking as a playoff sleeper this year? Let's start there.
8:38
Well, I, I'll just say, like I, I'm probably the most proud I've been is, is picking kind of the, the, the sleepers each year.
8:44
Um, I think I've got a good process for it and kinda narrow down historically the types of teams that get there, and, uh, so it's a lot of, lot of pressure.
8:52
And, and I'll say this season I probably had less conviction versus prior seasons, but, um, you know, for me in the AFC, I, I've got the Titans as the kinda surprise team, um, to potentially make the playoffs.
9:05
There's not many options in the AFC. It's so, you know, heavy, uh, on the top end, and, you know, I think there's a bunch of bad teams as well that, that to me just don't have any shot.
9:13
So the Titans, I, I just think that, you know, based on where they were last year, and, and you look at, and I go through it in, in the preview, but they, uh, to me have had, they probably had the single worst head co- head co- or sorry, quarterback special teams combination of any team, uh, I think in NFL history.
9:33
I mean, you had Will Levis, who was dead last in virtually every, uh, quarterback metric, um, took a ton of sacks. Um, he gave up, what, five touchdowns to the opposing team between pick sixes a- and fumbles.
9:45
He was just awful in every way. You had a special teams unit, and this is something that I didn't appreciate until I kinda dug into this for the preview.
9:53
I knew they, they were, they were poor, uh, on special teams, but they were dead last if you use DVOA. I know you're gonna have Aaron Schatz on tomorrow.
10:00
DVOA is kind of my go-to for special teams just 'cause there's really not many metrics out there that you can measure. Uh, they were dead last in about four different special teams categories.
10:08
They were dead last overall. They had the, uh, fifth worst punt unit, uh, based on DVO- DVOA, uh, in 40-plus years of that database. So just an atrocious special teams, an atrocious quarterback situation.
10:22
If you look at their defense, it was actually pretty solid.
10:24
Uh, they were much better earlier in the year, I guess, when they still had a shot, uh, when they thought their season was still, you know, um, yeah, they still had a shot of, of having a good season prior to the, the year end.
10:34
But, you know, they're a top 16 in a lot of those underlying metrics like yards per play and, and success rate and those sorts of things.
10:41
But, you know, you, you begin to wear down as your offense and special teams just continually puts you in bad positions. So they've got talent.
10:47
I mean, their defensive front is really, really nasty with, with, led by Jeffrey Simmons and, and company. So they've got a good enough defense to compete.
10:54
They just need some level of stabil- stability at quarterback, uh, and just a special teams unit that just doesn't completely kill them. So, and there's, you know, there, I talk about penalties as well.
11:04
Like they, they gave up the most third and long, uh, automatic first downs in the NFL on defense.
11:10
Like there's a handful of things that I think you just need to not be, you know, historically bad at, uh, and automatically you're gonna win a few more games. And I just, you know, I, I do like Cam Ward.
11:20
He's not, he's not in the same category as we saw Jayden Daniels last year and C.J. Stroud two years ago, and we saw those teams, uh, those quarterbacks take their teams and, and, uh, elevate.
11:31
But I do think that Tennessee, uh, is, is going to compete a lot better this year on offense, and I do think they have a shot in a poor AFC South enemy schedule to, uh, to win the division. Love it.
11:41
Total, uh, season win total five and a half, plus 430 to make the playoffs on the Titans. More with Cleve, Cleve T.A. on the other side, NFL. It's a numbers game at VSiN, V Sports Betting Network.
11:58
A numbers game on VSiN, V Sports Betting Network. Back on the numbers game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Billings.
12:06
Now we're just talking to, uh, Cleve Offier Rudely, the, uh The broadcast came back and interrupted mid-sen- interrupted him mid-sentence. But I think- I-... ESPN+ plus subscription- ESPN+ plus...
12:15
man, for, yeah That's right. Uh, Cleve joins us once again. Again, @clevta, C-L-E-V-T-A, C-L-E-V-T-A on Twitter, cleveanalytics.com.
12:24
But if you go to his Twitter, @clevta, uh, it's easy just to click through from his pinned tweet to go to his, uh, NFL preview guide, which is cleverly titled, Kelly, by the way, you ready for this?
12:34
The Cleve Analytics 2025 NFL Season Preview. Very nicely done. Uh, but it's all free. And I just wanna say this before we go back to Cleve here, and this is for those who are new to betting or new-ish to betting.
12:45
There's going to be a percentage of our audience that heard what he just said about the Tennessee Titans. Remember how bad the Titans were last year.
12:51
And they're gonna just hear Titans, and they're gonna be like, "This guy is crazy."
12:55
But so much of what we do handicapping, if you've done this long enough, whether it's football, whether it's baseball, whatever it is, is finding what is sustainable and what is unsustainable, finding what our eyes necessarily didn't convey to our brain
13:13
and retain when we watch these teams. And if you go back and analyze in so many different ways, which Cleves, Cleve just did about the Titans, you will see, oh, actually, the underperformance was dramatic.
13:25
Uh, he also brings up, uh, Kirk Cousins torpedoing the Atlanta Falcons' season in his guide as well last year. So that's the kind of stuff.
13:33
So when you hear someone like Cleve say the Titans, who's had the success he's had, I would not balk. Uh, Cleve joins us once again now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
13:41
Give us, give us a team, Cleve, 'cause I wanna go through a bunch of this rapid fire in the, in the few, in the little time that we have. We won't kill the whole guide here, but we'll go through some highlights.
13:49
Uh, what's the team that made the playoffs last year you think that is most likely to miss this year?
13:56
Well, I think most likely it'd be Pittsburgh, but their, their odds are probably the lowest [laughs] to make the playoffs. So, um, you know, that, that's kind of an easy one.
14:03
But I think among the, the teams that are, that are favored, I have Tampa. Uh, and you talked about Atlanta was probably my other s- sleeper team in the NF- uh, out of the NFC.
14:12
I, you know, look, I love what Baker Mayfield's done, and that offense should be really good. The fact that they, you know, gonna, gonna have to deal with another new OC.
14:20
You're having to have Tristan Wirfs early in the season, and who knows how long that lasts. Um, you know, they were six and six against starting, uh, NFL quarterbacks.
14:29
Uh, but, you know, they were, what, four and one against backups. They faced some, uh, one of the highest percentage of snaps against backup quarterbacks. Their defense was not very good.
14:38
Their p- pass defense was pretty poor, but it was masked because they played, you know, Spencer Rattler twice, and Cooper Rush, uh, Aidan O'Connell, and Desmond Ridder, like a bunch of backup quarterbacks that helped them kinda, um, make, uh, make their numbers look better than they really were.
14:53
And so, uh, I, you know, I do think the offense will be fine. I do think, you know, a- adding, uh, Abuka will be, will be nice to that core, but I do think there's a lot of holes in that defense.
15:02
And, you know, the, it's just no su- sure shot for me that they're gonna make the playoffs, uh, out of the NFC South. Thank you for not saying Washington. Let me just start by saying that.
15:10
[laughs] Um, let's go to, okay, you, I said that you picked correctly last year. Before the season started, you said Philadelphia's beating Kansas City in the Super Bowl. It's exactly what happened.
15:20
All right, we don't usually ask this very basic question of folks, but who do you got in the Super Bowl this year, sir?
15:26
Yeah, so I've been picking K- uh, Kansas City a lot, uh, and it feels like it's kind of an obvious, until they prove me wrong.
15:32
I mean, how many A- AFC championships in a row can, can Mahomes go to, uh, without, you know, me predicting them to go to the Super Bowl?
15:38
So I'm gonna just take my chances with, with the, the, the Chiefs and the, the AFC. Uh, I do think that, uh, between getting their, their full wide receiver core together, um, they added some pieces on the O-line.
15:50
They're not gonna win as many games as last year, but, you know, it's still Mahomes, it's still the Chiefs. I, I'm, I'm okay, uh, uh, sticking my neck out, if you will, on the, uh, for the AFC.
15:58
And I have the Packers coming out of the NFC. And you could have listed six or seven different teams, uh, out of the NFC, and I would've, you know, would've... I'd be fine, um, you know, picking that team.
16:10
I think there's a, the case to be made for a lot of those teams.
16:13
I took, I, I just went with the Packers because the more I dug into Jordan Love last year, I think generally speaking, most people think he had a, a kind of a, an off year, uh, versus that, that, you know, breakout two seasons ago.
16:26
And, you know, uh, if you look at the raw numbers, you might think so. But again, his receivers did not do him any favors. None of them stepped up, uh, to become kind of the, the, the clear number one.
16:37
Uh, you had guys like Christian Watson continually getting hurt. They... His receiving core had the fifth highest rate of drops in the NFL, and some big drops. Um, and then you look at who he played.
16:47
They, he faced the single toughest schedule of opposing pass defenses in the NFL. So he had a really tough schedule. His receivers are not helping him.
16:54
He had to deal with injuries a couple times, uh, throughout the year. Uh, he had a hamstring injury, obviously, uh, early on in that opener, and then, uh, he, he hurt himself a little bit later.
17:03
So, you know, I think throughout that season, he did well enough, at least to me.
17:07
I mean, if you look at some of his consistency, consistency metrics, um, you know, he was the only quarterback among starters that had, uh, that never had worse than a 30th percentile, uh, EPA performance.
17:18
So, like, he, he was always had a high floor based on his oppo- you know, the opponent's face. So his numbers were fine. I think he's gonna have a bounce back.
17:26
Uh, I think he's gonna have a, another weapon with Matthew Golden. You hope some, some of those drops, you know, regress. And I think the defense is good enough, and they got really good coaching with Matt LaFleur.
17:35
I just think that it's, uh, kinda, uh, the signs are there for me to take a shot with, uh, Green Bay out of the NFC. I like it. Um, that's going to make some folks around here who are Packers fans very happy.
17:46
Let's go to a couple awards, see what we can squeeze in here. Coach of the Year, you are actually going for a three-peat.
17:53
Not only did you have Kevin O'Connell last year at 28 to 1 with the Vikings, but you had Brian Daboll the year before, right? Uh, back in, uh- Well, two years before... oh, oh, that was 2022. Yeah. Yeah, 2022. Yeah.
18:03
So not the three-peat, but three in four years. Who did you land on this year?
18:09
Yeah, so I, I talk about in there, and I've talked about in the past, it's kinda all over the place, and a lot of people like to, uh, like to take that, uh, content and, and use it a- a- as well.
18:19
But, uh, a lot of the profile of, of the types of winners, it's the, kind of the most improved award, if you will, kind of the, the lower expectations get there.
18:27
I I went with Jonathan Gannon from the Cardinals at 20 to one. I think it's, uh, it was at DraftKings a little bit ago, but I think that he kind of fits the bill. I like Arizona this year.
18:37
I think they can win the NFC West. Uh, they can get to 11, 12 wins, which I think he'll need, uh, to get there.
18:44
Uh, I do think they're, you know, the market's catching up to kind of understand what I, what I've been preaching for a number of years in terms of the types of winners.
18:51
And so guys like Ben Johnson and Mike Bra- Brabel, which, uh, normally would have been longer shots, are, are the clear top two. Uh, so I, I just don't think the value's there for e- either one of those guys.
19:00
And I actually don't think that either team is going to, um, to compete for the playoffs anyway.
19:04
So, uh, I think Gannon, uh, at this spot, um, deserves a lot of credit, and I think he has, um, he has the profile, uh, a- and the team. Their defense should be a lot better, uh, but he has the, the team to get there.
19:17
So, uh, I went with Gannon here at 20 to one. Jonathan Gannon, 20 to one. I love it. You're smiling. I love, this NFC West is gonna be so fun. Yeah.
19:24
And I know I'm smiling 'cause like I, I feel like I've been talking a big game about the Cardinals whenever we've talked about them, Gil, but like I haven't made a bet yet 'cause, [laughs] I think there's still the Rams and Niners there and- But that might, that might be the way to play it.
19:35
Yeah, I think it makes a lot of sense. Uh, one more here, Cleve, before you go.
19:39
Uh, and this is an interesting one because obviously it's related to MVP in the sense that Offensive Player of the Year has become this award in recent times, and this is, we shouldn't, I guess we shouldn't really be beholden to this as a rule, but in recent years it has been a non-quarterback thing.
19:59
Who did you end up with off, i- i- in Offensive Player of the Year, and what was your sort of mental gymnastics getting there? Yeah, it's, as, to me, it's as e- you gotta take a receiver.
20:10
I, I mean, obviously, uh, Barkley, uh, hit there last year, but I, to me, I just still think that a receiver's the best bet. So it's either, I like two, two, two options.
20:19
Puka Nacua and Drake London are the two that I went with. Uh, Puka, I think it, you know, if you play the full season, his numbers were fantastic last year. On a per game basis, second in the NFL in yardage.
20:28
You know, he was light on the, uh, TDs, but that, you know, Cooper Kupp stole a bunch of those. He won't be there. I know DeVonta Adams is there, but, you know, Puka I really think is undervalued, um, at that point.
20:39
And then I think Drake London, again, I like Atlanta a lot this year. They're gonna have 12 dome games. They face a, an easier schedule, um, from a opponent's defense's perspective.
20:48
And Drake London, in the last three games with Michael Penix as a starter, saw 39 targets in those three games, averaged 117 yards.
20:57
Uh, I, I just think that he's got much more upside, especially with the kind of the big chunk yardage that Kirk Cousins, you know, couldn't get down the field as much last season with, uh, coming off that injury.
21:07
I think Penix with the bigger arm takes more shots, could get, uh, more chunks and, and more yardage for, for London.
21:13
So he was kind of my, my longer shot at 50 to one, but, um, you know, those are the two guys that, uh, that I have.
21:19
And, you know, one of the, one of the, uh, when you look at the profile of winners that, you know, I maybe was not, uh, appreciative, uh, as much till I dug in, uh, the last 16 skill position winners of this award since 2000 were all 28, uh, age 28 or younger.
21:33
This is not an older man. Hmm. You know, an older wide receiver, older running back, uh, position grouping. So it kind of lowers the, uh, the, the, the universe, uh, of, of potential options for me.
21:44
So, um, those two guys both fit in that category as well. Your, your preview guide for what you just mentioned there, I'll just repeat it again, w- for that alone I think is worth, i- is those, I call them parameters.
21:54
What did you call, like, the stipulations? Uh, 28 and under? The filters, yeah. Yeah. Yeah, those, just those rules to reference for all bettors for the rest of the year.
22:05
Just look at those and, and have them handy for each of these awards because you will find yourself, much like that NCAA college basketball championship formula I do, you will find yourself being able to narrow it down to a group of receivers, uh, or a group of players in, in each g- given market, and if you go out of bounds, it will give you pause, in other words.
22:24
So it's great, man. Cleve, uh, really appreciate it. Again, it's, uh, your Pro Football Preview available @CleveTA, C-L-E-V-T-A, on Twitter. Thank you for the time, sir, and we'll talk soon. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it.
22:39
My man. Cleve TA, everybody. Uh, does such a great job, and always in such a great, humble, clear explanation kind of way. Yeah, absolutely, 100%. Wes Reynolds, on the other side, coming back.
22:52
A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game, live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Hey, don't forget to check out the Sharp Plays. Uh, Sharp Raise, sharpplays.com that is.
23:05
They don't follow the market, they help shape it, they say. They're not going to, uh, outsmart, or you're not going to outsmart billion-dollar sportsbooks or full-time sharps all by yourself.
23:16
Check them out, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting information, alerts directly from the pros, unmatched transparency with records updated daily. Check them out, sharpplays.com.
23:25
We get tweets of beating the book, always appreciate it. This is from Vegas Regular. I was talking about Pierro's earlier. He says, "Have the veal parm. It is legendary at, uh, Pierro's."
23:33
Yeah, that's, I, so I think I've only eaten there once, and I had the veal parm. Betting Man Todd, "Heading out to San Francisco for the Dead shows. Would love to hear your best lunch spots out there."
23:44
Well, I will tell you this. I, I might be a gatekeeper on sushi out here, but I will not be about, uh, the best breakfast burrito that I've had in San Francisco. Mm. What do you got, Cleve?
23:54
A b- Oh, I thought you were gonna bring up some garbage about sourdough bread. Can't get, I, I can't. [laughs] But breakfast burritos I'm here for. How dare you, first of all?
24:02
Sourdough bread is just maybe the most overrated food on the planet. Okay. You, I don't know. Can I tell the restaurant? Yeah, yeah. Okay. Breakfast burrito, what do you got? Breakfast burrito.
24:11
Cracked and Battered on Chestnut. All right. This is- Now that sounds good... this is the equivalent, have you ever seen the Curb Your Enthusiasm episode where Larry goes to the Palestinian chicken place? No, no.
24:19
This is my San Francisco equivalent. [laughs] It's, let's just put it this way. We could solve- Uh..... we could solve global political problems- [laughs]... with this breakfast burrito, me and them.
24:30
All right Every time I, every time I go there my guy's like, "Gil." I'm like, "Khan." [laughs] Greatest breakfast burrito. Here's the thing, they cheat on the breakfast burrito. You know why?
24:39
They put fried chicken and tater tots in it. Oh, man. Yeah, I mean, I- That's, that sounds- So great... yeah.
24:45
T- take a, uh, breakfast burrito, not al- already not the healthiest thing for you, then take it up about- Oh my God... four notches. Yeah. Spectacular. Uh, this is from Nick, The Real Nicks.
24:53
He says, "Perfect name and idea for Fezzik's show, The Fez Connection.
24:57
It hooks, it hooks up- Fez Connection [laughs] It hooks up gamblers looking for love while Fezzik does the mathematical analysis on if they'll hit it off. Welcome back, boys." Thank you. Fez Connection.
25:08
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he's part of the glue that holds this whole operation together. He has hit yet another golf feature. This is, uh, a weekend at the 3M Open with Kirk Kisiyama.
25:16
It's Wes Reynolds, everybody, co-host of Long Shots, the greatest golf podcast there ever was, courtesy of Aggressive Gas Line. Congratulations again, Wes. Thank you. Uh, Mini- Minneapolis has been very good to me.
25:28
I had to do the, uh, the little Mary Tyler Moore spin around and throw my hat in the air. [laughs] Of course, uh, that show was, uh, located in Minneapolis famously. So, uh, back-to-back years, Kirk Kisiyama got it home.
25:41
Now, I did have somebody tweet me, this was about two hours before the round finished. It's like, "Congratulations on the 40 to 1 to Kirk Kisiyama." I was like, "Oh my God, y- you just done did it." Glad you did it. Oh.
25:52
Y- y- y- y- y- You did it... you done did it. You did it. And now I'm gonna have to search your IP address and hunt you down for doing that [laughs] because this is gonna go bad. But fortunately, it, it did not.
26:03
So, uh, was glad to get it home. I know Kelly had Jake Knapp. I, we were g- about to go one-two, uh, in the thing on the Long Shots podcast.
26:11
But, you know, Kisiyama, when he shot 60 on Saturday, I thought, "Okay, there's nowhere to go but down," right? Right.
26:17
Like, when you shoot a round like that, how many times have we seen 60 or 59, then you shoot, like, barely under par the next round? And he was able to get off to a hearts hot start and hang on.
26:27
So all these guys trying to get in that FedEx Cup playoffs in two weeks, and Kirk Kisiyama did that. I promise I'll save most of this for Long Shots, Gil, but man, I love that tournament, Wes. I love it.
26:38
I think it's such a great transition back from the Open, and it's just, a lot of the lovable ball strikers that we like to bet are finally live at the 3M every single year. Yes. Right? Yeah.
26:49
It's just keep it out of the water. The greens are easy. If you could be, log off the tee, hit great approach shots, and Kirk Kisiyama checked all those boxes. So well done. That was great.
26:59
Man, that, and that course has water everywhere, and like I said, the tournament founder goes, "We want birdies and train wrecks." [laughs] And that's basically what they get at this event every year. Yep.
27:08
How many outrights is that for you this year, Wes? I think, I think number seven, uh- Oh... uh, so far this year. [laughs] So, uh, you know, trying to, trying to keep finishing. Look- Only seven?...
27:19
as unrealistic as it may sound, I wanna hit, like, one a month. Okay.
27:23
And I'm not gonna probably do that this year 'cause I'm not doing the DP World Tour as much, just because of time, and quite frankly, I didn't do very well on that tour last year.
27:32
So sometimes, you know, your time is your most valuable resource as a bettor, so you've gotta devote time to stuff that you think you could be successful at.
27:40
I feel like I'd be remiss if I didn't seize on something you said here, I don't wanna just gloss over it, which is the guy who said, "Congratulations on Kirk Kisiyama."
27:48
So I'm in this group chat, I'm sure Fezzik talked about it at some point with you, and we've mentioned it before. It's me, Fezzik, Todd Wishnev, Bear Felica, and Will, Will Hill.
27:58
And Fezzik calls out winners, and he does this now gleefully, purposely to irritate Todd, right? So in the first inning he'll be like, you know, and it'll be like a full game bet.
28:10
[laughs] But a team will go up two to nothing and be like, "That's a winner in St. Louis," right? He'll do that.
28:15
And, and it gets worse and worse, and Todd is so angry by it that he'll go to a sidebar text with me and be like, "Why is he doing this? Why does he think this is correct to do?" [laughs] Right?
28:26
As if there is some science to it. But it just shows you- It's, it's etiquette. It is- It is improper betting etiquette... it is etiquette Okay? It is an etiquette. It is a matter- Yes... of etiquette.
28:34
It's not superstition or anything like that, it's just etiquette. I'm just telling you, violence could occur because of this, so I totally get why you were spooked by it. Thankfully- Well, well we, yeah.
28:45
Look, we're, we're a nervous bunch, I think some of us. Yeah. Yeah, you knows. And it might be superstition.
28:50
I don't know what it is, but I remember I got myself caught doing that with one of our colleagues at VSIN, and he was like, "Gee, dang it."
28:58
Now I'll, uh, make the, uh, language more permissible for morning programming, uh, but. I, I'm, I could guess- [laughs] I'm guessing in my mind right now who this is. Me, I know exactly who this is.
29:08
Already know who it is. Yeah. But it's okay. Go ahead, Wes. Yeah. Three guesses and the first two don't count, right? [laughs] So, uh, you know.
29:13
Yeah, so, so I got myself doing that, and, and, and right after I did it I was like, "Oh my God, what did I do?" You know? So y- Well the- That's just the way we are. We're, we're high-strung people as, by nature.
29:24
Well, yeah, okay, first of all, though, th- this is, the golf one is, it is more egregious, right? 'Cause you're talking about a golf outright. What number did you have on Kisiyama, 40 to 1, 45 to 1, something like that?
29:34
Yes. So it, it's already a long shot ticket, right? Like, this isn't, like, cashing a three to one. It's a 40 to one you got in hand. Okay.
29:43
Your, you, you're bet on a guy who's one of the worst putters, like, on the PGA tour, and there's a ton of water all over the course. What could go wrong? What could go wrong? [laughs] What could go wrong?
29:51
[laughs] Sounds, sounds- Yeah, 'cause you look at, you look at- Yeah... that in-game pricing and it says like, "Oh, he's minus 1,400." That doesn't mean anything.
30:00
That means absolutely nothing, 'cause that thing can flash in a hurry if a ball goes in the water or if a guy three-putts. So, you know, you gotta be, you gotta be careful with that.
30:08
Uh, and, uh, you know, that, that, that's almost a little superstition that I have, 'cause I do the old school notebooks. You know, I don't always put it in an Excel spreadsheet even though I know how to use it.
30:18
I write stuff down. Oh, love it. I'm just a creature of habit.
30:22
And that's why I don't put a win or a check by it until it is final, because I've had to d- I've done that before, and then you gotta, like, cross it all out and it makes it all messy Wyndham Championship this week.
30:33
Uh, Kelly, Matt, and Wes will have all their thoughts on that on Long Shots, which comes out when? Wednesdays? Wednesdays? Tuesdays. Tuesdays. Tuesdays, time dependent. Okay.
30:42
Uh, Wes, anything baseball or football season long that you have come to in the last week or two that you are betting or considering betting?
30:54
Yeah, I was, was looking at some of the awards markets, and I typically don't like to get involved this late in, in, in the, in the year for baseball because I'm trying to debate if I do wanna go in, even though it, you know, it's a shorter price, on a Paul Skenes, because this is where we get into the trick of baseball, right?
31:12
Yeah. We get into that final month of the season, and a lot of the bettors leave the market. They leave because football is here.
31:20
So the guys that, you know, the, some of the guys that you have on a numbers game, Gil, like the base winner and those guys, they're gonna stick with it all year, right?
31:27
They're gonna stick with baseball all year, so that's where on a day-to-day basis, like I think the moves maybe if you look at where the prices are moving are a little bit more legit.
31:36
But I wanna see if Pittsburgh, what they're gonna do with Skenes because they're obviously out of it, but he's got a real chance to win the Cy Young.
31:44
So do you get into late August or September where, okay, he's at 90 pitches and he's through six innings. Do I take, do I send him back out for the seventh?
31:57
And that's what worries you when you're betting this awards market. Meanwhile, Zach Wheeler, just consistent numbers. You know, six innings every single start.
32:05
You know, maybe not the stellar strikeout numbers, but you know, that, that's what I'm trying to determine is if it's, if it's worth it at this point to go with Skenes while he's still plus money, or are they gonna do this thing where they shut him down in September?
32:17
Well, but you bring up a great point though, Wes, is because I remember three weeks ago when I was last here, or, or was it three weeks ago or two weeks ago, whatever it was, where I was starting to say, "Hey, looks, they're, they're load managing Skenes.
32:30
The pitch count is getting, you know, subdued here. Maybe this is a Zach Wheeler moment." And then he goes ahead and they let him throw 99 pitches yesterday. Yeah. 99. Uh, so yeah, I totally hear what you're saying.
32:42
That was kind of a fake-out by the Pirates to me yesterday. Yeah, no question about it. So, uh, uh, you know, but I think that they want some sense of accomplishment.
32:51
If you've got that guy right there, do you really cheat him out of a Cy Young to manage a guy that may leave you?
32:57
If the Pirates [laughs] don't do something to get a little bit better, he's certainly gonna be looking at other alternatives I think, you know, a few years from now when his contract's up. All right, Wes.
33:06
Always appreciate it, man. Congratulations again. The continued success on the one-a-month pace. Well done. Y- you bet, guys. Thanks for having me. Wes Reynolds, everybody, @wesreynolds1, the number one. That's right.
33:19
On Twitter. And obviously Long Shots coming out every Tuesday. You guys do it, uh, what, through Ryder Cup, or what do you do? We do it all season, man. Even like, even- Every year. Fall golf.
33:30
Wes and I have been doing fall golf the past two years together. You're doing December or something? Notice I just said Wes and I just did fall golf last year. [laughs] I did notice that. You lost one. We'll come back.
33:39
We'll recap all the bets, and I got something to say about this Billy Joel documentary. Coming up, Numbers Game. VSiN. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:55
Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. By the way, I was downtown, uh, in Las Vegas in general. Can you, can you feel the, uh, the downturn in tourism?
34:09
Some are reporting 17% down as compared to last July. Do you feel it here? I was out and about a fair amount this past weekend. I didn't feel it. You didn't feel it? No. Okay. Fair enough. In Fountain Bleu, man.
34:19
S- it's summertime. NBA's done. Football hadn't started yet. Kelly's at the pool. Kelly's at a lo- he spent a lot of time at the pool. Kelly's at the pool, he said. Bo- both Saturday and Sunday, man. It was great.
34:30
Got done with Ready, Set, Bet here, went straight to the pool. Uh, let's recap the bets. Uh, I have a couple tennis bets today. Men in Toronto, ladies in Montreal, where you can go on a date with Leila Fernandez.
34:43
She wants you to slide into her DMs. That's her thing. She's like, "I wanna go on an hour date with a civilian. Slide into my DMs. We'll pick you." I'll go, "What could go wrong on that?" She doing- Yeah.
34:53
She's adorable, by the way. Matteo Gigante on the men's side in Toronto, -104 versus Borna Coric. That is, uh, Borna Coric rather. That is the, uh, play on the men's side.
35:02
And then on the ladies' side in Montreal, Antonia Ljušić +140 versus Anastasia Potapova. By the way, when I was in Hawaii, you know, three hours back, I couldn't get the timing on the tennis picks right.
35:13
Something about going three hours back jacked with me, and I was like, "Oh, it's already late?" Like, ah, forgot to, you know. So I apologize I didn't have as many tennis picks. Get it together, bro.
35:24
Yeah, well, I'm back. It's okay. Uh, and- And Leila Fernandez playing Maya Joint tomorrow. Maya Joint. That's tomorrow. Yeah, they let her, they let her take a day off.
35:32
Um, by the way, also the big thing that I also laid- Oh, is she gonna go on a blind date and she's never been on a date? That is correct. She has never b- Ooh, you buried the lede. She's never been on a date in her life?
35:43
Yeah, she's been on a tennis tour, man. She got no time for this. I don't know why my voice just cracked there. I don't know either. Hmm? [laughs] This guy, she, she- Never been what? She lives in Florida.
35:52
She's playing tennis. She's trying to win tennis tournaments. She got no time for dates. But like, okay, but like, no, to your point of like what could go wrong. Yeah.
35:59
I like- Like, you're gonna start off your dating life on just that? Yeah, rando DM. Yeah, I don't- Yeah. Yeah, I don't know.
36:05
Uh, by the way, I also made a bet at August Most Wins Major League Baseball, Texas Rangers 30/1 over at William Hill Caesars, now at 22/1. Still a play for me.
36:15
Uh, all of our best bets brought to you by Jimmy Kelly, but you have none today, huh, Kelly? I had nada, bro. Yeah. I had nada. Kelly really taking the day off. He's like, "I did enough." Phew, two weeks.
36:24
Two weeks of carrying this whole thing. That's enough. I was gonna say carrying the ship, but I don't think that really makes sense. Carrying this what? Oh. Ship.
36:32
Uh, all brought to you, all our best bets, every show, every host, every guest, every sport By the way, Cleave had a bunch too, but it's really part of his preview guide. Yeah. Um- Read his guide.
36:41
It'll, uh, make you smarter anyways. That's right. Introduced... By the way, it's all brought to you by gbank, the official bank of VSiN. Introducing the $500 trifecta from gbank, First Bet, and VSiN.
36:50
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37:08
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37:14
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37:24
Shall I read some tweets? Sure. What do you want me to say? CFL's gone bad. Soon as I open up my mouth about it, it's gone, it went bad. Winnipeg, Winnipeg got their butts kicked last weekend. Oh, is that what happened?
37:34
Yeah. Oh, I'm sorry. There's that. Golf, I was ri- I was... The, the other thing that y- we're, we're talking about, uh, betting etiquette, I broke one this weekend. The problem is we get to, we do long shots.
37:46
We get ta- talking about our golf bets, and I kind of, uh, when I know some are in the mix, we al- we always overlap like one or two names at least, right? Right.
37:55
Matt, Wes, and I, at least like one or two names there's overlap by one, a couple of us.
38:00
And I thought Matt, Matt and Wes were on Kiriyama, so of course I send the text where I'm like, [laughs] "You guys both thought him, right?" And I'm like, "Ah, nah, that's not Matt's bet."
38:09
So I'm like, "Oh no, you got nobody close. Dang it. Sorry." Oh. My bad. [laughs] My bad. Uh, we get tweets to beat in the book. Joe Pita.
38:17
I had lunch with, uh, Joe Pita in San Francisco on, uh, just on, on Saturday as well. Always a pleasure. He said, "Cleave breaking down teams that faced backup quarterbacks is fantastic.
38:27
That is not captured anywhere else, including DVOA, which is just for full season strength of opponent. That is great process for uncovering an edge." Joe Pita shouting out Cleave, who was on the show earlier.
38:39
Uh, James Giuliano, he goes, "You came out firing with the Sugar Hill Gang. Welcome back. I can't believe you don't know Rapper's Delight." Wow. No, I, I, I, I, I think I do know that one. I'd have to hear it, though.
38:50
Oh, God. Mikey P- Like, I know that one, right? I know that one. Yes, you do.
38:53
Mikey P, "Does the breakfast burrito place hate some of their customers [laughs] and hope for their demise, and the result's [laughs] a weird turn on which makes the burritos taste better, too?" Yeah, it's kind of that.
39:04
[laughs] Except like the, what you're referencing in Curb Your Enthusiasm, we've all became great friends. It's amazing. The power of a breakfast burrito.
39:12
Uh, Todd, uh, says, "Just catching up on today's show, but if Seattle and the Yankees both miss the playoffs, can Judge or Raleigh win MVP? Maybe Scoobal is worth a bet." It's a thought.
39:24
We've had MVPs that, that, you know, play on bad teams, but you're absolutely right to think about that as a, uh, as a factor, I believe.
39:33
And then Colin Murphy, he took the Cleave segment and he went a different direction. He says, "What I took out of Cleave's great spot was we should be getting Brian Callahan Coach of the Year.
39:43
27 to one on FanDuel were the best odds I could find." So he basically took his bullishness on the Titans and went with the Coach of the Year market.
39:50
Yeah, I haven't got, I haven't gotten a chance to read through, uh, the guide yet, 'cause I believe you just put it out a couple days ago. Yeah.
39:55
I don't, I don't know how far you got into it either, but- Oh, I read the whole thing. Oh, you did? Well- Did he list a few options? 'Cause d- doesn't he usually do that? Oh, yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
40:01
He does, he does list a few options. Okay. So I don't know if he was in there or not, Callahan. He, he also does team by team, which Aaron Schatz does, and it's always nice to juxtapose guides against each other. Yes.
40:10
Yeah. You're like, "Oh, this person's super high on it. This person is not high at all."
40:15
By the way, one of the things that Cleave, you know, also talked about off air with us, and it's in the guide, he doesn't think the Saints suck. Yeah?
40:22
He's got them at six and 11, but he doesn't think they suck as much as other people do. That surprised me. Yeah. I will say the, uh, I mean, I think the other,
40:30
I think the single biggest ooh, that's interesting moment I had when he said was Drake London Offensive Player of the Year. Yeah. Noticed that as well.
40:38
Can I talk about this Billy Joel documentary real quick before we go? Sure. I know you want to. Uh, [laughs] have I mentioned it e- enough times? A couple times? Uh, Billy Joel documentary on HBO Max.
40:48
Back to calling it HBO Max now, by the way. Thank God. They went from, uh, Max back to HBO Max.
40:53
I, I didn't even know that, I didn't know that changed till they changed the, I feel like it was only like a year ago they changed, like, the, the login screen or whatever to finally just say Max.
41:03
It was, like, just black and Max. Billy Joel, there's a documentary on HBO.
41:07
Now, this is in the same sort of vein as, was it a few years ago, there was a Bee Gees documentary that came out, I couldn't talk enough about it- Yeah... on HBO. Then there was the Yacht Rock one last year.
41:17
Well, Billy Joel has a two-part documentary on HBO. Each part is two hours and 20 minutes. Like, it is long. It is a major commitment. But this dude is an American treasure.
41:31
And I just wanna say, as a guy who, you know, grew up loving R&B music, I worked in R&B radio, but my ears, I, I listen without prejudice, to use the old George Michael phrase. And so I have always loved Billy Joel.
41:46
Specifically, I love two albums, right? The Stranger and 52nd Street, which I like to refer to as his Off The Wall and Thriller. Before that and after that, Kelly's, he, he has no idea what's happening right now.
41:58
Um- I like Billy Joel. No, I just, just- There's just no way I'm getting to this documentary at all. Well, you're no way you're getting this? There, there's no way I'm getting to this at all.
42:05
Like, there's just too much stuff out there to watch. Oy vey. All right, so here. So, so those are the- Not enough time in the day...
42:11
those are the two albums that I, that I think are just masterpieces, and I like a stray hit there before and after. But it was just, he, he is, those two albums are, are, I would hold up against anything.
42:22
But he's, his, there's so many details in this that I didn't know about him. One, he is Jewish. Part of this is him trying to find his father, right? Oh, wow. That's interesting. Uh, he goes through his whole story.
42:34
His first wife, uh, comes out of hiding basically, and she appears prominently in the first part to talk about his, uh, her experiences both, uh, in their personal life with Billy and as his manager.
42:47
Um, for many years he wouldn't sing Just The Way You Are because it conjured up memories of her. Hmm. That's who he wrote it about.
42:53
But it was just fascinating 'cause even the biggest Billy Joel fans will learn something from this documentary. I cannot recommend it enough.
43:00
It is a big time commitment, but a dude like that is, merits every second of it, in my opinion. You're not a Billy Joel guy? I like Billy Joel. There's just, no, there's j- there's too little time in the day.
43:12
I got work to do, and there's so much stuff on right now. 2015, he did a concert at AT&T Park in San Francisco. It was spectacular. And then he, then he r- was relegated to his Madison Square Garden residency.
43:27
Uh, Debra Song's fashion stylist and I flew out for his 70th birthday one. It was great. He's s- dude is a treasure. I would go. I, I mean, are, like, are you talk- seeing him live in person? Are you kidding me?
43:36
Yeah, he would be way, he would've been o- o- uh, one of those people way up there for me. Enjoy these guys while you can- Yeah... is my, is my message. No, that, that's my only, are you kidding me?
43:45
No, I respect the, from, from the musician, love Billy Joel. I just don't, there's no way I'm gonna be able to fit in five hours of a documentary on him. You'll figure it out. I have faith in you.
43:54
Living in the gym these days, bruh. Don't have time for that. [laughs] What are you down to? Uh, I don't know, like 235. Good God. Yeah. Oh my God. What's the goal again? 200? Uh, that would be nice.
44:05
I'm gonna say 220, though. That's the goal. Kelly doesn't like easy goals. That's the goal. Um, we've done- Living in the gym and the casinos, so no time for that. [laughs] No, I have the Gilmore 2.
44:14
That's what I'm watching tonight, man. That's what I'm watching. Somehow he found two hours for that. Yes. Yes. I will always find two hours for that. Stormy is next with Ariel Epstein. Enjoy.
44:24
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