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Jul 29, 2024
A Numbers Game | July 29, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | July 29, 2024 | Hour 1
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44:43
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Welcome to a new week. Welcome to downtown Las Vegas.
0:12
I'm Jared Smith in for Gil Alexander all week. So, hope you get used to this, uh, 'cause you're gonna be seeing a lot of me this week. Uh, Kelly Bidlin is here as well.
0:20
He's always here, um, it seems like, uh, morning, noon, and night, 24/7. You got your cot underneath, uh- [laughs]... the desk here that nobody can see. Um, he just woke up and popped up, and then he was at work.
0:30
Um, how was your weekend, pal? It's great, man. I, I heard you were not one of the entire gambling Twitter universe that, that won on Johnny Vegas yesterday at 3:00 AM.
0:37
Yeah, no, no, I wasn't, Jared, but yes- That's a shame... I think every other- I saw Wes. Congrats to you, Wes. I saw you won. Yeah, Wes hit and, uh, and, and like we were laughing about- [laughs]...
0:44
before the show, I think- Everybody... every, every golf bet I did well... every single person. I didn't w- I didn't bet it, so. I did, I bet him...
0:49
It was the, the, the rare you kind of kick yourself 'cause you bet, I bet him- Yeah [laughs]... first-round leader. Yes. And then I didn't bet him to win the thing, you know? But it's- Well, that, that always feels good.
0:57
I mean, Johnny Vegas, he just doesn't win that much. Uh, first win since 2017. He got it done- Good for him... though I know there, I know there was a lot of people on Vegas, so I, that was a big hit.
1:05
We had a, we had a couple fans of the show that were sitting over here while Dustin and I were doing live bet Sunday yesterday. Nice.
1:10
And they were, uh, one of the guys, um, and I'm blanking on names right now, but one of the guys, Jared, had come up to me, and he was like, he's like, "Yeah, I just played craps downstairs for, like, two and a half hours and just blew through a grand."
1:21
He's like, "I hope I get this 10 to this, like- Wow... $13 ticket on this 90 to 1 home." Wow. And it hit, so he broke even. So- That's-... happy people won.
1:29
I mean, so I've been there on the down a grand in craps department. Um, to follow that up with an outright winner in golf. On a $13 ticket, yeah.
1:37
[laughs] On a $13 ticket, that gentleman or, or lady, um, good for him, good for her. Um, fun show. Speaking of Vegas, by the way, so I usually give myself...
1:48
I've now lived here, actually next week will be my two-year anniversary of moving to Vegas. Uh- Is that all it is? There- Yeah. There are certain people- Two years...
1:54
like you and Dustin that I'm like, I feel like I've been here for five, six, seven years now. Well, it's, you know, the song, the Tony Bennett song, I Left My Heart in San Francisco. I did not leave my heart in New York.
2:04
[laughs] My heart's here. I hear you, man. [laughs] This is where I feel it's whole... Two years here is like a, it felt like, it feels more like home than two decades in New York.
2:12
Um, but my point being, we've been dealing with the traffic bug for, like, over a year now. Yes. So i- if you were here for the Super Bowl, if you've been here in the last year or so, you probably noticed the traffic.
2:23
It's, it's really been bad. But- F1, yep. Yeah. Oh, and the F1, it was terrible, and then of course on the strip for, like, the, the Friday before the Super Bowl on the strip- Yeah... it was like Gotham City.
2:33
Like it was- [laughs] It was like the, it was like Gotham City right before the Riddler came. Like it was just, like, really weird.
2:39
The traffic everywhere bad, but the I-15 four lanes this morning went back to four lanes. So it was, we, the, the, the entire highway was shut down all weekend.
2:48
I, getting here on Saturday, I had to go, like, around, and we're used to that. It, it has these- Yeah...
2:54
random shutdowns on, on I-15, but the, but the caveat was it's gonna be shut down this weekend, but when it reopens on Monday morning, [exhales] four lanes. I- I didn't know either one of these, by the way.
3:04
You, you and I both live south side of town. I'm, I'm a traffic guy. [laughs] I've got all the apps on my phone. I get alerts. Like, what, what- I'm a Vegas nerd now...
3:11
luckily you and I are both the type that show up earlier to shows- I'm an early guy... than, than maybe- Yeah, I'm an early guy... maybe others, okay? But, uh- [laughs]
3:17
But, uh, so yesterday I'm coming up for live bet Sunday, 15 shut down. I'm like, "Every- It was, it was rough. Dave Ross was late on Saturday... everybody's on the side streets."
3:25
Yeah, everybody's on the side streets Saturday. Sorry, dude, I had to call you out. [laughs] Like, I had no idea. Like, you, like, you're talking about being the traffic nerd. I'm like- I'm a traffic nerd.
3:33
I'm a former news reporter. Yeah. I know all this stuff. I know, I, the second I moved here, I followed, like, all the traffic.
3:38
By the way, I made a joke on social media, like, the state flower of Nevada is a traffic cone. Um- [laughs] I've seen that joke before. I stole it from other people. I'm not gonna take credit for it.
3:46
But my point being, I usually give myself an extra 10 or 15 minutes. Yeah, but, but I would, I would- I did that today, and I forgot that the Flames though, I got here, like, 10 minutes before I even was supposed to.
3:55
I, I sat in my car for five minutes. [laughs] I didn't know what to do. I was like, "It's too early for me to go in. It's too early." [laughs] That's why I went side streets up again today.
4:02
Dude, I didn't know when it was reopening. So yeah, you were- Oh, you did side streets today? We're, we're excited because Jared came in here and got, brought me that news. So yeah. I was jacked up this morning.
4:10
There is no greater feeling. Tell me a better feeling, other than, you know, maybe a $13 ticket on a 90 to 1, when you leave your...
4:17
when you're getting, you know, mentally preparing for a t- a bad commute, like I'm gonna sit in traffic, and then there's no traffic- [laughs]... and you just fly. So maybe it's gonna be a good day.
4:26
It wasn't a great weekend for me nerfy-wise. Uh, it wasn't a great weekend for me, uh, baseball betting-wise. I'm going through the ups and the downs. It was a great week after the All-Star Break.
4:34
That weekend back from the All-Star Break was, like, nails, and then this past week, the first full week, um, has not been very good. We'll try to reload it this week.
4:43
I'm already seeing some people, uh, tweeting us they want nerfy stuff. I'll give you some nerfy stuff at some point today.
4:48
And yeah, I think we're gonna do a, a, at some point this week, um, probably not tonight 'cause I have plans, so I won't have time to do the research, but, but before Thursday, which is the first day of the new month, I will give you an official wager for most wins in August.
5:01
I know that is a very popular wager on this show. You guys have already hit one this year. So we'll have plenty of baseball stuff, but I- Don't give me any credit. Gil has.
5:09
[laughs] I mean, listen, you guys are a collect- It's like, it's like the royal we in The Big Lebowski. Right. The royal we. Yeah, yeah.
5:15
Um, I, I would say the big story yesterday was, I, I don't wanna say it was the Olympics, but I'm seeing it, uh, you know, lead every s- every show, um, you know, on the, on the networks here this morning with what Team USA did on the men's basketball hardwood yesterday.
5:29
They were a $5 favorite to win gold.
5:31
Like, them winning by 26 over one of the random European nations, I don't want it to move the needle, but it's funny how I just see all these stories about, oh, Jason Tatum didn't play, and then this and that, and Embiid stinks, get him off the team.
5:43
Guys, they're the best players in the sport. Like, just let them go to the Olympics and play a little bit and, and let's not, like, make everything a headline like it is when they play in the NBA every night.
5:55
Like- Right... it, it just, it feels like we're, we're, we're glamour, like, just, like, idolizing and, like, over, over-glamming, over-glamming every little minute detail of what happens in the Olympics for basketball.
6:07
To me, this doesn't feel like something that's a story, that Jason Tatum didn't get a whole lot of minutes and Joel Embiid's kind of eh in the Olympics. Yeah. The Olympics.
6:15
It's, um- I think it, it's interesting to me, Jared, but I think for a cou- like, a couple reasons.
6:20
There, the, the international game has now developed to a point, right, where you have guys that we see this all the time in the NBA, but you need specialists a- and role players, if you will, like Derrick White and Jrue Holiday, who are so amazing both sides of the ball, that just help fill out this team better, that are getting a lot of these minutes over, you know, quote-unquote, some, some bigger star players.
6:45
Um, and that's been interesting. I think just to see how far the international game has come that we can't just say, [laughs] "Hey, you know, here's the US' seven best players.
6:54
We're just gonna put them all out on the court." No, the chemistry matters, the roles matter. Exactly. A- and that's important. Now, I do think that's been interesting with Joel Embiid.
7:02
Um, it just, Anth- the, the, the tandem of Anthony Davis and Bam Adebayo has been so effective and so great- Yeah...
7:10
and then Embiid's been meh, that, like you're saying, they're so talented that we might be overreacting. You know, like it's, it's not like he's getting replaced by a bunch of scrubs. It's Anthony Davis- [laughs]...
7:20
and Bam Adebayo. They're two of the best defenders in the NBA. Um, and the Tatum stuff is, look, it's again, credit to the international game. Serbia is not a joke opponent that they had to play yesterday. No, no.
7:30
The best player in the world in the front court, right? They have quali- Not much else, though. [laughs] They have, they have a couple quality players in the back court. They have a couple guys that can play.
7:37
So what, so what did the US had to do? They had to run out a bunch of bigs and guards, which means that your redundancy at forward with LeBron, Kevin Durant, Jayson Tatum, someone's gonna get left out.
7:48
And Durant finally played yesterday- Yeah... and when he's shooting lights out and doesn't miss a shot till, I don't know, I think it was late in the third quarter when he finally missed. Yeah.
7:56
Someone's not gonna play, and that was Jayson Tatum. [smacks lips] Durant eight for nine yesterday, 23 points. He, he looks fantastic. I mean, again, US was a $5 favorite. They were a double-digit favorite in this game.
8:07
It was tight in the first half. I think they still covered the first half number, barely. They did, yeah. Um, but I, I just, I, I laugh how I see the same discourse. It's just funny to me.
8:16
I'm not saying that it's not warranted.
8:18
It's just, it's funny to me that you have a collective of the best players in the sport all playing together that have not played together with this co- with this unit yet, and we're, we're kind of, you know, haggling about how many minutes each guy plays.
8:32
Like, just let them go play. They just kicked the crap out of Serbia. Like, who cares that Embiid didn't look great? It's, it's, it's hard to play at this level. Yeah. I, I, I'm...
8:40
If they struggle in, in a, to a point where they lose, I'm okay with the discourse. But when they win by 26, I'm just like, "What are we really, like, you know, upset about here?"
8:52
[laughs] I, I think, no, I don't think there's anything to be upset about. I, I mean, I just- Yeah. Yeah, it's just funny how it's like biggest key to winning gold. Yeah.
8:57
Like, all they have to do is show up, and they're probably gonna win gold. I mean, they're also in the easiest group, and they just beat the toughest opponent in the group. They just destroyed Serbia in the second half.
9:05
So like they are, they are, they are rolling into the quarters, no worry, no worries there. But like, I do laugh at- They're gonna win every game by double digits... I, there are two things I laugh about, though, Jared.
9:12
Like, yes, I just talked about the redundancy, and I get it. But like Jayson Tatum, like yes, I've been kind of one of those haters over the years, but like this, this, this is, this is why.
9:20
You're not at the same level a- as- He's not... as some of these others. You, you're right. I think that's the funny part. You've won a championship now. It's g- that's great. Clearly he's not.
9:27
You're on the, you're on the best team in the NBA, that's awesome. But like you, you're, you're not, you're not LeBron James. You're not, you, you're not Kevin Durant. No. Like, that's just a fact.
9:36
[laughs] Like, that is, for all of us that have brought that up before, it's not supposed to be hate. When Steve Kerr feels the exact same way in a big time Olympics game like that, kinda sh- it, it kinda shows that.
9:46
Um, Jared, the other thing though is I, I, dudes, you know, how old is LeBron James now? 40? He's still- 74. He's still the best player, uh, uh, player on the, on the team. 39, sorry, 40 in De- in December.
9:58
Like- Wow, he's older than me... like watching him in these warm-up games- And I feel ancient watching these guys...
10:03
yeah, like watching him in the, in the exhibition games and then yesterday if you watched, like he's still the best player for the United States, and he's 39 years old. Yeah. Check in with me n- next Olympics.
10:13
Maybe he won't be by then. Maybe. I don't think he's gonna be in the next Olympics. [laughs] I wouldn't think so either, but... I, it, it actually is funny. There is a sense of nostalgia watching him now for me. Yeah.
10:25
Yeah. Because y- you, you really do at some point, that retirement... Like, how do you think he's gonna announce it? You think he's gonna announce it, he's gonna give himself at least a full year?
10:36
Oh, it, I think it will be a full- He might give himself a two-year, [laughs] a two, a two-year goodbye journey. He might say, "In two years I'm gone." [laughs] He might give himself two years.
10:44
Biggest, biggest guess would be it's next season, and, uh, he, h- he's hoping and praying Bronny takes a little bit of a step forward this year so he can force him onto the 15-man roster for next season.
10:55
And then it is- So they can actually play together... and then it is a full year victory lap goodbye tour. Wow. Yeah, it's crazy that we're at that point, but it, it, it's funny to me when I watch...
11:06
I, I just- Th- this is nostalgic though, Jared. Like, it, you are right- The Olympics are-... because what he's doing to these oth- [laughs] to these other country's teams, right?
11:14
It reminds you of LeBron's early days in the NBA. Yeah. Where now the NBA is so specialized that when- You can't do that...
11:19
that def- yeah, defenses he's running into are so high level that he's not a- able to be as effective. And it's an 82-game regular season. He's not doing that for all the games.
11:27
These are the Olympics every time you put on the uniform, especially in the actual games that matter. Really excited for the show. Mark Borchardt, Jay Kong gonna come with us, uh, in the next hour. But we'll come back.
11:37
Um, we'll get into a little bit of, uh, what's taking place in the NFL. Um, because I'll be honest, baseball, huh, man. When's baseball season over? Numbers game continues next on Visa.
11:47
[upbeat music]Sports Betting Network. Hey, guess what?
12:05
We're releasing our VSiN College Football Betting Guide this Thursday. I got two bets in it. Both of them are at plus money. You're gonna be excited for it. Whoa. Whoa, hey. Oh, hey now.
12:12
I actually, um, I bet them over the weekend. I g- I wrote them up over the week and bet them over the weekend, and I got very excited about them, because it was my first two college football wagers of the season.
12:21
Um, sign up before the end of July.
12:22
You receive both the college football and the NFL guide, plus full VSiN Pro access and our Daily Pro Picks, uh, 24/7 video exclusive data, like our betting splits, all the way through the Super Bowl at an early bird discount price of $175.
12:34
Or sign up for a monthly subscription. Get your first 30 days for only $19. See everything VSiN has to up your betting game. Don't miss out on the preseason deal. Sign up now, VSiN.com/subscribe.
12:45
Man, it feels good to say preseason. We have an NFL game this week. That is crazy. That is crazy. This week. I mean, w- we're here. It's August, guys.
12:56
We'll, we'll talk some NFL preseason, I think, betting tips and everything over the next couple of weeks. Oh, I, I... Can we get Steve Fezzik on at some point? Yeah, we could. Yeah, we can have Steve.
13:03
That, to me, is- Yeah, for sure. That, to me, is he is the... So Steve put out a tweet last year. He might be listening. He's a, he's a frequent listener of, of, of the network.
13:12
Um, he put out a tweet last year about the preseason, and it was the first time that I really, I would say, tried to, like, bet it. Mm-hmm. Like, really bet it. Like, you know, you're watching, "Oh, football's back.
13:25
I'll throw a few..." That's one thing. But when you actually try, like, you're really putting in the work during the week with the rosters. You're, you're making lists of Twitter people- Mm-hmm...
13:35
of, of reporters and, and things, so you can get, try to track the movement. Like, that's what I'm talking about when I say try. Like, obviously it's not like Yoda here, like, "Do or do not. There is no try."
13:44
[laughs] But it, it was like really put effort into it, and it's because he was one of the ones that really said, "Hey, there's, there's value here." Yeah. You got, you gotta do your work, though. And that's the thing.
13:53
We're kind of in that lazy mode in August, where, like, we don't wanna do work yet, 'cause we know the football season's really coming soon. Yeah. It's like the warmup stage.
14:00
We don't wanna go sp- full sprint during the warmup stage, but hey, money's money. I like bet- I like betting it.
14:06
W- w- what I'll end up having, Jared, is, like, anywhere between, like, a total of three to six bets for the entire preseason. But, like- Sounds about right...
14:13
but I, I kind of narrow it down, and we'll, we'll talk more about this later in the week. Yeah. But for me, it's a lot about, look, it's a lot about coaches.
14:19
Like, there are coaches that take it more seriously than others. Yep. And to me, it's exploiting quarterback depth charts [laughs] for the most part. Like- Yep...
14:26
there are a lot of teams that their third s- their third-stringer is just as good [laughs] as another team's second-stringer who...
14:33
And then i- if you're gonna be able to throw your second-stringer and third-stringer in there for way more amount of time, that just gives you an extra leg up.
14:39
So I think it's that, and then it, it's a big-time information game, right? It is, it's like handicapping the NBA every day.
14:44
Like, you've gotta be s- uh, tweet deck up, uh, 24/7 and get some of the news that's gonna come down- Yeah... about who's gonna be playing, how long they're gonna be playing, all that, all that stuff. Yeah.
14:53
Maybe we'll, we'll, we'll, we'll try to get Steve on this week. If not, we'll try to get a, a professional NFL bettor on. Maybe Crack can come on. Does he usually come on during the week, or is that only with Gil?
15:01
Uh, usually only with Gil. Only with Gil. Well, maybe because he likes me, 'cause I do a Fox show with him, that maybe, maybe we can get Crack. I bet because it's me. Tell him it's me. He'd probably come in with you.
15:11
I, I bet he would. Yeah. Um, because there's a lo- listen, there, there's a lot of meat on the bone there, uh, with the preseason.
15:19
I- if, if you really are willing to do the work, um, there is a lot of opportunity, so it's not as a... Uh, it's, I would say the, the pros bet it just as much. It's just another game to them.
15:31
But, but it, for the, for the, for the n- the novices, for the, for the rec betters out there, that, you know, if...
15:38
The tweet that Steve put out last year was something along the lines of there's really three opinions that you can have. One of them's okay, one of them's really good, and one of them's wrong.
15:45
The opinion that's okay is, "I know that there's value there. I'm just not willing to do the work." Mm. Like, that's, that's an acceptable opinion to have. Yeah.
15:52
Like, if you're not willing to do the work, admit that you're not willing to do the work, and just say, "I understand that there's value there. I'm just not willing to do the work."
15:58
The opinion that's obviously the elite is, [laughs] "I know there's value there, and I'm willing to put in the work."
16:02
The opinion that's wrong, that I was frankly of the belief on earlier in my career, is that there isn't value. Mm. And that, "Oh, it doesn't count, it doesn't mean anything,"
16:12
that's not the right opinion about the NFL preseason. Yep, agreed. It, it's just, it's just not correct. There is value there. You just have to be willing to do the work.
16:20
Um, all right, let's get to some NFL news, 'cause over the weekend, some really... Just, like, this is, this is one of those, like, embarrassment of riches, the opposite of the situation for New England. Yeah.
16:30
Because they were already, uh, up against it this year, and now one of their best players is... I mean, this does not sound good.
16:37
Um, defensive tackle Christian Barmore, um, Barmore, I apologize if I mispronounced that last name, diagnosed with blood clots over the weekend. That is a serious, serious... I don't even wanna call it an injury. Yeah.
16:48
Like, that's an illness. That's an ailment. Um, and he'll be out indefinitely.
16:53
So the way that I graded New England this year, offense arguably worst unit in the NFL, especially the pos- the skill position group, the offensive line. And the defense was kind of a top 15, like, fringe top 15 unit.
17:06
Like, you know, they could be a top half unit this year if things broke their way. For sure, yeah. He's one of the best players in the league. It's gonna make it a lot harder for them to be a top 15 unit, because
17:16
teams are gonna try to run the ball on them, obviously. Mm-hmm, mm-hmm. You wanna get a lead on a team that struggles to come back and struggles to play o- You wanna keep that offense on the sidelines.
17:24
You know that you have an advantage if you take a two-score lead on this team. Yeah. Because they just can't come back. So
17:32
if their defense is on the field longer and longer, and they have less and less beef in the middle 'cause of Christian, that, that's just gonna make things really hard for Jerod Mayo this year. Yeah, I, I, I agree.
17:42
I mean, look, this, I, I think the biggest, one of the biggest challenges this defense... And we talked a lot, Gil and I talked a lot about th- this last week. I, I do think they're, I think they're a talented group.
17:51
I'm with you. I, I have them, you know, definitely top half- Yeah... maybe even top third, uh, defensively, which is the biggest challenge they were gonna have [laughs] was, was their offense, right?
18:00
The, as a defense, the biggest challenge you're gonna have is that your offense is gonna give you- Yes... no support whatsoever.
18:04
You're gonna be stuck, uh, you know, defending some, uh, short fields and, and everything like that. So that was already gonna be a problem. Now, if injuries start to rack up- Hmm...
18:12
I think, I think this team's, uh, in s- in serious problems. I know it's a team that you and I have already bet against, man, [laughs] basically. I have a fewest wins in the NFL bet on them. Yeah.
18:21
And then you're un- you're under their win total. Yeah, I bet under five wins at stations about two weeks ago. It was a flat, even odds, um-
18:31
I thought, so the four and a half, which was being dealt at around plus 120-ish- Yeah. That's what I'm seeing at DraftKings right now, 125. Yeah. So the way that I would grade it is 50 cents for each half win.
18:46
That's kind of the going rate in the NFL for a half win. Maybe 45 cents if you wanna be kind. So simple math, right? Like, if I got even odds at five wins, means five I would push, six I would lose, four I would win.
19:01
So under five and a half, if I'm laying -120, -130, that's pretty good. That's- that's a decent bet. Now it's, stations is dealing f- under five, -125.
19:13
At that point, I would just play the, the plus 120 under four and a half. Because again, 50 cents- Yeah... I'd rather just have the plus money. It's about where, it's about the same bet.
19:22
Pl- under four and a half, plus 120, uh, plus 125, under five, -125, it's kinda the same bet. I, I mean, what- Pick your poison...
19:30
I think when we're talk- when we're talking a win total that low, honestly, you and I should probably have both of these bets. Like, [laughs] it's like- Yeah...
19:35
I, uh, 'cause what, you know, what are the cha- what are the chances they go- Basically 4.75... they go under the win total and then don't hit fewest wins, right?
19:42
It- Oh yeah, I'm not gonna bet fewest wins just because I think there's gonna be a chance at some point to bet it again. Okay. Maybe. I don't like the index markets.
19:52
The index markets that don't cash till the end of the year scare me, unless I'm getting a big whopper of a number. Mm-hmm. Like, what, what did you get? Two to one, three to one? I, I was four to one. Oh, that's not bad.
20:02
Yeah. That's not bad. That- Plus 390. Plus 390. That's not bad. That's not bad. It's probably, like, two to one now. Plus 320 at DraftKings. Yeah, it's- But shop around. That's one I've seen different numbers on...
20:11
I, I would want more for that. I, I think four to one's fine. I would say five to one's probably what I was thinking for that, because there's just so many teams, and then the dead heat rules, you chop it up.
20:21
It, it's tough. It's tough to win those. I did make a bet in a similar market for the Jets, but it was the last undefeated team, and the reason why I'm a little bit
20:32
feeling better about that is because it's not g- I don't have to wait till February to cash it- Right... or January. Like, I, I, theoretically I could cash it in fir- the first couple weeks. Probably not. But,
20:43
like, it, it, to me, that's like a four or five week bet instead of an e- a 17 week bet. But I, I think they're the worst team in the league.
20:50
So the way I graded them out, my, my preseason ranking on them is the third worst team in the league, but not by... Like, Carolina and New York are, like, right there. Mm-hmm. Offensively, they're the worst. Yeah.
21:03
They are the worst. Yep. I have them graded as the worst quarterback situation in the league. Um, well, excuse me, second worst. I have the Knicks situation worse. The Knicks?
21:12
Um, yeah, and then I have them at, I have New England tied- The Giants? I have New England... [laughs] No, I have the Giants, I have the Giants slightly ahead of- [laughs]... of Brissett.
21:21
But you didn't really, you don't really. It's called the Knicks. I have Daniel Jones, I have Daniel Jones- [laughs] Look at Jared just keep going. Nixon Stidham. What, did you say, what did I, what did I get that wrong?
21:31
You said, you said New York Knicks. Oh, no, Nix. Bo Nix. Oh, Bo Nix. [laughs] Bo Nix. [laughs] I mean, the New York Knicks, their quarterback situation's not, is actually, I would- Wow, we're a disaster here, okay...
21:44
I might trust Jalen Brunson to play quarterback over Bo Nix. I honestly might at this point. Um, I've got, I've got Levis and Brissett tied, 30- like, they're the second, tied for the second worst.
21:56
The reason why I don't like New England is 'cause I think their O line's worse, and their receivers are worse. Yeah. Yeah. They don't have DeAndre Hopkins.
22:02
They're, I, they have the, well, they have the worst skill group i- i- in the NFL. They do have the worst skill group in the league. So I've got, actually, to be fair, I've got them as the 31st worst O line.
22:09
I've got Arizona's O line worse. Um, but I've got them as a top 10 secondary and a top 20 front seven. Yeah. Yeah. So this ain't gonna help that. Yeah. That's for sure.
22:21
Um, yeah, New England's, New England's the dregs of the kegs this year. I think they're, I don't see how... Like, that's why I really like five wins.
22:27
I'm like, "I've gotta, I've gotta lose si- they gotta win six games for me to lose this bet." Where are their six wins on their schedule? I, the- Go find six wins.
22:34
The other one I'm adding is some point, I, like, I've been meaning to, is last winless team too. We talked about that- Yeah... a couple weeks ago. Like, they're- I like that one more-... schedule's tough...
22:41
I like that one more than the l- fewest wins... fewest wins? Yeah. I think I'd rather get my money earlier in the season. Mark Borchardt, MLB Better, uh, comes next here on A Numbers Game.
22:50
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Monday morning, downtown Las Vegas, Jared Smith in for Gil Alexander. Kelly Vidlin here with us as well.
23:08
Now joining us on the Progressive guest line, he is a professional Major League Baseball better. Follow him at X, @basewinner, Mark Borchardt.
23:15
Uh, Mark, uh, great to be with you here this morning, because baseball really, it, it, it, we're at that point, right, where the season, even though the All-Star break was just very recently, we're way more than halfway through the season.
23:26
The grind of the season has taken its toll.
23:29
When you get to this late July, early August trade deadline time, where there's just so many things changing, especially over the next 24 to 48 hours, i- is this a different period for you when you're analyzing the markets than, let's say, just a random day in June, or maybe even a random day in September?
23:45
Well, you've gotta be abreast of everything that's going on. So for me, it's gotten easier over the years, uh, Jared, 'cause I, I've automated a lot of my process.
23:55
So today I was smiling because I was able to change, 'cause I think Isan Paredes is in- Yeah... w- in with the Cubs and stuff. So a lot of it for me has, has been automated.
24:05
And, and to be fair, there's a lot of really good information sources outside of basewinner.com. Of course, that's a great source for, for [laughs] baseball handicapping information as well.
24:15
But so being able to, to automate a lot of the, the who's, who's on first, what's on second type thing is, that is as challenge as a handicapper.
24:25
And, and for years I would have to do it manually, and it would just be dreadful right about now, because you don't know what's going on. Who's, you know... I don't know who's on first. What, Abbott and Costello.
24:34
[laughs] I don't know if you, I don't know if you're young and, uh, you're too young to remember that whole routine, but, uh, there's some guys listening that probably remember that.
24:41
But literally, you, you have to do, you have to know that. I mean, literally, I mean- Isaac, Isaac Paredes is, is on first for the Cubs. So, uh- [laughs]...
24:49
uh, being able, you know, seriously, like, and so, like, being able to balance that out is, is, is, is a lot easier when you have it automated. But it's, it's cool for me.
24:58
And the other thing, too, is like, I don't have like, I think a lot of people are for, they have these daunting, like, you gotta do pre-season college football numbers, which would, that must be a nightmare nowadays.
25:07
Oh, yeah. Pro football, everything's kind of, kind of coming up, right? And so you have all these, all this stuff at the end of the... And so it's harder. But for me, doing baseball, I, I really enjoy it.
25:16
I like, I like seeing how these general managers work. And s- and to be fair, I don't know everything [laughs] and what these guys are gonna do. I don't think these guys know what they're gonna do, uh, day to day.
25:27
So it's exciting. It really is. And, and I think the Cubs, I'm glad you brought that up, is a really good example. Because I think conventional wisdom would say they're what?
25:36
A last place team in the division, if not second to last. Uh, they're sellers at the deadline. And they're like, "Oh, not so fast, my friend. We're gonna make all these trades."
25:45
Now, I know they gave up a, a Major League player, Christopher Morel, uh, to get Isaac Paredes, but they made another deal over the weekend, too.
25:51
So it's kind of like you're playing blackjack, and we get to see the dealers hold cards. Like, we get to see what these general managers are trying to do. And maybe we were wrong about the Cubs being, you know, sellers.
26:04
Maybe they're gonna try to make a run at this thing, or maybe they're trying to set up their team for down the road. This is a week where we get to see the dealers hold cards because it's the trade deadline.
26:14
Yeah, it's super cool. And, uh, I, you know, like Tampa Bay, like they're get- they got rid of Eflin. They got rid of Savala. So are they throwing in the towel? You know what? You never know with Tampa Bay.
26:24
Maybe they know more than we do.
26:25
And it looks like that Tampa Bay organization, if you look at like how they're gonna set up, uh, next season with the starting pitching, it's, it's pretty amazing how these guys with such a low budget can do things.
26:35
And I, I have a lot of respect for these guys. Talk about million-dollar decisions, and they have to do it every day. Wow. So a tough job for a GM, I think. Yeah, it really is. All right, let's get to today's card.
26:45
We've got a double header, uh, on the books today. Let's talk about this Orioles team. Um, I, I am on them, uh, at a pretty decent plus price to win the AL East.
26:52
I felt great about myself going into that last weekend before the All-Star break, then that crazy series with the Yankees. It's been weird for both teams at the top of the American League East out of the break.
27:02
Great series for the Yankees over the weekend. I didn't, I don't know how they won the game the other night.
27:06
Um, but I am very interested, uh, to see how Baltimore responds today, because they've kind of been up against it. Tough series for them over the weekend against San Diego.
27:13
They got a win yesterday, uh, to avoid a sweep, but, but, uh, not the two best pitchers on the mound for Baltimore today. But we do get a chance to see Zach Eflin, who you mentioned a little bit earlier.
27:23
Yeah, I think this is priced too high for the Orioles. I've got it priced at minus 108, which would show significant value, uh, with the Blue Jays and Rodriguez. I think Rodriguez is as good by my numbers as Eflin.
27:37
Uh, I use strikeout percentage, walk percentage, and ground ball percentage. Those are kind of the tenets of my number.
27:43
If you look at, uh, Yero Rodriguez strikeout percentage, uh, last 10, uh, from a median standpoint is 26.6%. Puts him in the 83rd percentile.
27:53
Uh, conversely, same number with Eflin, 18.9%, uh, puts him in the 29th percentile. So you get an edge there. And if you look at sometimes, uh, I like to look at this Stuff+ number. Uh, The Athletic puts it out.
28:05
A guy named Eno Sarris, who's, who's just really a, a great fantasy guy, but I think that if you can pick information from him, uh, as a handicapper, I think it really helps you.
28:16
Anyway, his Stuff+ figure, uh, which looks at 11 different components of a pitch, vertical drop, velocity, change of speed, that sort of stuff, uh, really granular stuff.
28:25
Uh, Rodriguez has the better Stuff+ number, 52 percentile, uh, versus Zach Eflin, 44 percentile. Uh, and then you have a hard hit per nine number. Yero Rodriguez is a little bit better there, too.
28:37
9.5 hard hits per nine, uh, which is close to the top quartile against an Eflin, which is 10.3 hard hits per nine, which is about league average.
28:46
So I think we get a, a little bit of an edge, believe it or not, in, in the pitching based on the recent numbers. Uh, offensively, the Blue Jays kind of coming around here.
28:55
Uh, I have them ranked 13th in baseball, and I, I think the Orioles are, are an interesting piece, Jared. I, I really like them.
29:03
Uh, they have like plus 250 to win that division, so I have a couple, uh, tickets on them plus 250. I'm looking right now at this AL East race as a, as kind of a pick 'em right now. Yeah.
29:13
So, but I'm ho- I'm hoping, [laughs] hoping the Orioles can hold on. Uh, I, just, just because of my personal bets on them. I feel you. Mark Borchardt, uh, Pro-M will be better. Follow him at X @basewinner.
29:23
Um, a great day today. That was, uh, I didn't know that, um, the, the, uh, uh, the ground ball percentage being part of your, uh, part of your stew there. I'm gonna add that to my mix.
29:32
That's not something I look at as often, um, as maybe I should. See, see, even I get to learn stuff when we bring on guests that I haven't had a chance to converse with. So great stuff, Mark.
29:41
Um, all right, rest of today's card. N- not the most enticing Monday slate. That's kind of how Mondays are. Anything else of note for you today as I let you, uh, kind of have free rein here?
29:49
Yeah, I put out a, I put out a card every day, and I think the top play for me, and, and those of you who have been following me for a while know that I love to play a two-team parlay.
29:58
I think the best two-team parlay here today is to go with the Pirates and Paul Skenes' first five, though. Uh, I, I, I like Paul Skenes. He's my number two pitcher, only behind Chris Sale.
30:10
And, uh, I've got them going against Jake Bloss, uh, and the Houston Astros. Uh, Jake Bloss not, not the boss by my numbers.
30:19
Uh, you look at the board today and, and Skenes has the highest strikeout percentage on the board.
30:23
Check that, the second highest strikeout percentage on the board, uh, at 90, uh, uh, 32.6% strikeout percentage, 97th percentile. Well, who's number one? It's Nick Pivetta, uh, from the Red Sox.
30:35
I'm gonna pass on that game. I do like Logan Gilbert as well. But I'm gonna put, uh, Skenes in a parlay with the Royals and Alec Marsh. I'm, I'm not a huge fan of Marsh, but I have him better than league average.
30:47
But [scoffs] this Kris Flexen is really poor. [laughs]I mean, I, I can't see how you can make a case for him. Uh, you, we talked about that stuff plus number.
30:57
The, that is a one percentile number, so he's probably- Wow... the second worst stuff plus, yeah.
31:02
And then if you get, if you look at Flexen's, uh, strikeout percentage, uh, last 10 median, it's 16.2%, super low, 15th percentile.
31:11
Of course, you got the White Sox offense, which is the worst offense in baseball, and a bullpen, although they have been getting better, still 20th in baseball.
31:18
So what I did is I put the, uh, first f- I went first five, uh, Pirates, first five Royals, and you get about plus 170, uh, uh, when both those teams hit. I like him. Yeah.
31:29
So I, I, let's, I'm gonna get your opinion on the Skeen stuff, because it, I feel like the historical context of him winning Cy Young, it's, it's hard to get there because of the innings pitched, but we're in a kind of different generation, and I've been kind of calling him the exception to the rule.
31:47
The number is absurd. It's like he is the third favorite on the board right now behind Sale, um, and, and I think it's Wheeler, right? Wheeler, yeah. Sale and Wheeler. I, I think Sale deserves to be the favorite.
31:57
But can, can he really, does, does the Skeens have any win equity in this market, or is it just kind of a circus show that this number's gonna come all the way down, he's gonna win Rookie of the Year, and, and it'll be Sale or Wheeler that'll win Cy Young probably?
32:09
Well, for me personally, I think it depends if you watch him pitch. If you're a voter and watch him pitch- Yeah... I don't see how you can, cannot vote for the guy.
32:18
I mean, and I think that he's gonna get to the point where he's got a decent enough sample, you know, if he's got 100, 110 innings. To me, that's enough.
32:26
He's got a six and one record, a base winner ERA that leads the board, um, in, in as far as overall, uh, base winner ERA at 2.05, and then Sale i- is number two in the National League at 2.34.
32:40
I mean, Sale's definitely deserving. You look at Sale with a 13.3 record. That's a big deal in, in the Cy Young market, but Skeens is at six and one, and maybe if he can get into double digits on the win.
32:51
I don't think it's that far-fetched, personally, but it's hard. You know, Jarred, it's really tough to figure out what these voters are doing. Yeah.
32:57
I, I liked Strider so much last year, and his numbers were just so good, and they gave it to Snell, and Snell had, like, a, I dunno, 100% walk rate or something. Yep.
33:06
And [laughs] no, not, not quite that, but it was so high. And, and so, but, uh, you know, he w- he was a runaway, uh, uh, winner on that.
33:14
So it's hard to g- get inside the heads of these guys, but Skeens is definitely, for me, I, I think he's the best pitcher at this time, uh, i- in, in the National League.
33:23
Yeah, pound for pound, best stuff, but we haven't seen enough of it yet, and that's where I think the voters... It, it'll be one of the more fascinating, there... It'll be like a presidential race.
33:31
Like, we're gonna remember this one, um, for a long time. Mark Barchart, or Mark Borchardt, excuse me, uh, Pro-Am will be better. Great stuff. I appreciate the time, pal.
33:40
Hey, thanks, have, thanks for having o- [laughs] having me on, and good job filling in for the voice of sports betting. Oh, I love that stuff.
33:47
Uh, the voice of sports betting's on vacation, but we're back on a Numbers Game next. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:05
Hey, we are back, and check out vsin.com. We got all kinds of fun stuff. Let's do a refresh on the site right now, see what's up there. Oh, Adam Burke, 2024 NFL betting guide. The college football guide is out this week.
34:15
We got Zachary Cohen, Olympic picks. I've got a fun, uh, parlay that involved, uh, Coco Gauff, uh, earlier today that won, so that was fun. Little tennis on the, uh, men for you for Zachary Cohen.
34:26
Uh, Wes Reynolds got Olympic golf, Steve Mackin in college football, uh, improvements, all kinds of fun stuff. Uh, check it out over at vsin.com. All right, we are back here on a Numbers Game.
34:37
It is Monday morning, downtown Las Vegas. I am Jarred Smith, in for Gil all week long. So if you were tuning in here hoping for Gil, you're stuck with me for the week. I promise we'll still have some fun.
34:47
Um, coming up at the top of the hour, Jake Hahn. We'll talk some more Olympic betting. I'm curious what Jake has to say, um, if there's anything specific standing out.
34:56
Looks like golf, men's and women's tennis on the board. But let's go back and, uh, follow up on the discussion that Mark, Mark Borchardt just, uh, uh, presented to us about Major League Baseball.
35:05
Um, I learned something from Mark this morning. I did, uh, I did not know that ground ball rate was as high on his list in terms of grading pitchers.
35:12
I'm going to upgrade that for sure, um, on my numbers, and I really like his first five parlay between, uh, Skeens and, and Marsh. So I, I'm starting to see some reports about some players that might get moved.
35:25
I think the Cardinals are gonna be involved in a starting pitcher. I would expect the Dodgers to be involved in a starting pitcher.
35:30
The Orioles, who are, who've already made the move for a starting pitcher, you're gonna see him today in Zach Eflin. This is a tough week to bet baseball. Yeah.
35:36
Just like the All-Star, or just like the trade deadline in the NBA. Mm-hmm. It, it, it, just like any trade deadline, when players... And it's not just the players that get traded. It's the players that might get traded.
35:48
What's going on in their mind? And I'll give you a great example is Garrett Crochet. Mm, yep. I, obviously, I am the father of first innings, as Dustin Sweetelson has dubbed me.
35:57
I pay attention to every first inning, especially when the big name guys pitch. I've been on Garrett Crochet's nerfy. Two starts out of the All-Star break, both starts out of the All-Star break, he has looked shaky.
36:08
Worse than he's looked all year. Could it be physical? Sure. I think it's mental. Because he's probably getting, "Hey, this team is interested in you," from his agent. "This team's interested in you."
36:18
His agent's probably, every day, he's probably getting a report, or at least some days, "This team making an offer. This team wants you. This team wants to do this."
36:27
Because I'm seeing a lot of news about Garrett Crochet, and if I'm seeing a lot of news, that means the agents are talking about him behind the scenes, and the managers, and the GMs, and the scouts, and all that stuff.
36:35
So it, I don't know if that is a direct impact on his average or slightly below average pitching performances the last couple starts, but I'd be betting on that it was.
36:48
Yeah, that's, uh, I mean, he's at least a name that's been brought up. I mean, are, there anybody else on your radar of, like... All I, all I keep hearing is, okay, this t- you know, this team needs- Eric Fedde...
36:57
this team needs starting pitching, this team needs starting pitching. Every team, every player on the White Sox stacked to play. Who's the actual starting pi- who's the actual pitchers that are actually gonna go? Fedde.
37:05
I think Scoobel will get talked about being moved, but I don't think Scoobel gets moved. Yeah. I, I, I thought Scoobel was gonna get moved. I think it might be too much. Because it, it usually...
37:15
Well, do, do we see the odds move on, on Cy Young- Scoobel, yeah... if, if he doesn't go? Like, does he be- That's a good question... does he become more of a favorite right away, like 20 cents more? That's a great...
37:26
So what you're asking is, this is basically essentially what Kelly is asking, and it's a really good question. It's frankly a ba- question that a bookmaker can better answer than me.
37:36
Kelly is asking if the AL Cy Young market is baking in a fail-safe in case Scoobel gets traded to the Dodgers. Meaning, he should be a minus 150 favorite, but we're t- trimming 20 cents off the price- Right...
37:50
because there's a risk involved that he might get moved to another league. Then you have to ask yourself two questions as a follow-up. Has he done enough to already win the American League Cy Young? I think no.
38:01
And two, would he become the favorite in the National League? How would the voters view that? Do you carry over what he did in the American League? I think the answer to that question is no. I don't think there's any-
38:17
The, the problem is-... trade baking going on with the numbers. That would be my guess. Okay. So, I mean, I, I think the answer is it prob- But I could be wrong...
38:25
it probably will move, but I'm only asking it from an actual pre- an actual bookmaking perspective, right? It probably will move because people are gonna be like, "Oh, great, he's still there."
38:34
It's definitely gonna move. "Let me go bet it." Yeah. It's definitely gonna move 'cause people will bet it. People will bet. Yeah. I don't know if- From a odds making perspective, I don't know though...
38:42
it's a really good question that I've never been consid- I've never considered that. If I, if I was booking- How often does that happen? Yeah, no.
38:50
It's probably never happened before where the odds on favorite to win MVP or Cy Young- Yeah, yeah, gets traded... gets traded mid-season. I, I, it might have happened. It's a... Here's when it might have happened last.
39:05
This might be the last time it's happened. CC Sabathia, 2008. Mm. When he got traded from the Indians, at that point we could still call them the Indians, to the Brewers. Uh, yeah.
39:15
And he had a stretch with the Brewers that was so good, I think he... And I was, I was literally fresh out of college at that point, working my first job.
39:25
So don't hammer me if I don't remember what the odds were doing back then. [laughs] Right, yeah. But I would be willing to bet that he was considered for the National League Cy Young that year.
39:36
'Cause even though it was only like a, like a, like a 60-day window, and he might have been considered for the Cy Young in both leagues that year. That's how good Sabathia was. He was arguably an MVP.
39:49
He was hitting home runs for the Brewers in the second half of that season. They lost to the Phillies in the playoffs. The Phillies went on to win the World Series. That was one...
39:58
You know who else got traded that year, who also might have gotten consideration, was Manny Ramirez. Yeah, uh, yeah. But I don't think he switched leagues. Or did he? No. Did he go from Cleveland to L...
40:07
No, I don't think he was with Cleveland then. I think he was- No, that was the s- Red Sox or the Dodgers. So yeah, he did switch leagues. Yeah. They- What, what is funny is, like I'm just googling this stuff right now.
40:16
Look up the 2008 voting for the Cy Young and the MVP, and I'm curious if M- Ramirez got any National League votes and if Sabathia got any National League votes for either.
40:25
I think Baseball Reference does a good graph of it. And again, this is historical type stuff here, guys. Like, we are talking about...
40:33
And I don't think, I think if you had to set odds on Scoobel being traded, I would set it 60 to the no. 60% no, 70% no, 30, 40% yes. That's kinda where I'm at right now. I feel much better about some of the lesser guys.
40:45
Like for example, Eric Fedde's gonna get traded immediately. I think Garrett Crochet might not get traded. I think he will, but he might not. It's more 50/50. Whereas Eric Fedde to me is like 90/10.
40:55
Um, it, to me, that's the name I've seen, uh, mentioned a lot. Uh, Eflin was another guy that we've seen mentioned a lot. The Rays obviously were, were, were big sellers. You got anything there?
41:04
Yeah, so this was, Sabathia finished fifth in NL Cy Young voting. And he was in the league for 60 days. With a whopping...
41:12
He, he got 17 starts, but, uh, you know, the, the- In, in two months after the, after the trade deadline. That's how he pitched every third day... didn't compare to, uh, Lincecum's 33 though. Uh- Yeah, Lincecum, yes...
41:24
to- who took it down. And then Manny Ramirez finished fourth in MVP voting- In two months... in the NL, yes. And, uh- He played what? 50, 60 games with the Dodgers that year? 53 games, yep.
41:36
53 games, he finished fourth in the MVP. That is in- And he had 17 homers and 53 RBIs in those 53 games. Yeah. He was- Wow... on... That was, that might've been- Oh, and S-...
41:48
the biggest blockbuster trade, uh, year ever. And Sabathia finished sixth in NL MVP voting too. [laughs] You won't see a pitcher- I missed that one, yeah.
41:55
You won't see a pitcher finish in the top 10 of an MVP vote anytime soon, anytime again. I mean, that just feels... But you know what?
42:01
I saw, I think it was Mitch who tweeted, uh, uh, speaking of the American League Cy Young, about why Manuel Claress is not getting any, uh, votes. And, and he's not.
42:10
I mean, he's like 100 to 1 right now, and he's arguably the best reliever in baseball. Um, I, I really struggle, I really struggle with the closers to win Cy Young, and here's why.
42:24
It's just, it, it's just not as, it's just not something that gets a lot of fanfare. Like, the best closer in baseball, Mariano Rivera, never came close to winning a Cy Young. So how can you say Emmanuel Claress,
42:36
who's ha- I'm not saying he's not having a great year, but if the greatest closer that ever lived never won a Cy Young- Yeah... how can we give it to any closer ever?
42:47
That's kinda where I'm at with the clo- And maybe we need to come up with a separate Cy Young. Like a cl- And I think they have one. Yeah, yeah. Isn't it the Rolaids Reliever? Yeah, the Rolaids Reliever.
42:56
Don't get me wrong, it doesn't have quite the same ring to it as Cy Young. The Rolaids Reliever of the Year. Also, I bel- I believe Ben Wilson and I discovered that, uh, that, uh, it was the Rolaids Reliever of the Year.
43:06
It is. It's Rolaids. That, that has ended. Rolaids doesn't sponsor it anymore, I believe. Yes, I believe we found that out. Pour one out for Rolaids.
43:12
But yeah, there are, uh, there are odds up, uh, for Reliever of the Year for most places now. No, well, it's gonna be Claress. I mean, I would assume he's the massive favorite.
43:19
Um, and, and this is, the reason why I think this is valid is because it ties back into what we're dealing with with Paul Skeens. You have to put yourself inside the mind of a voter.
43:29
Paul Skeens is a gajillion dollar favorite to win Rookie of the Year. Yeah. Like, the market's over, it's done. He's gonna win that award. The voters then have to make a decision. Do we double down?
43:42
I think it's fair to say you can in terms of the talent, but there's a factor involved that says, well, Skeens is probably gonna, A, win a Cy Young at some point in his career, and he's already going to be decorated this season.
43:54
So let's pivot to another p- pitcher. It's the Wembanyama argument. And I bring, I bring this up for NL MVP too.
44:02
Like, if there's, I think if there's anybody that gets remotely close to being considered with Shohei, there are voters that are gonna think that way.
44:09
That he's not pitching this year, he's gonna be pitching in the future, we're gonna give him this award like five times. Let's figure out a, a different guy to go to this year.
44:17
The Shohei MVP discussion is intriguing as well. I, I think the baseball futures markets are my favorite of the futures markets because of the length of the season. Yeah, yeah.
44:27
It gives you these waves to kind of ride, just like surfing in the Olympics. Speaking of the Olympics, we're gonna talk, uh, a little bit on... I don't know if he's gonna talk surfing, but JCon joins us next.
44:38
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Sep 11, 2026
