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Jul 2, 2024
A Numbers Game | July 2, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | July 2, 2024 | Hour 1
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44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in this morning, we appreciate it.
0:17
Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin, producer number nine, back from vacation once again in case you missed it yesterday, in the hizzy. Yeah. Barcarata. Let's go. Let's ride. The rush.
0:29
Um, you did a fine job last night in finding some props that we're gonna go through today. Uh, DraftKings has something called a Drive for Five in the NFL. It is essentially matchup bets with a tie thrown in.
0:42
Drive for Week 5. I kept doing that same thing too. I might have written it down on the rundowns, uh, differently. Drive for Five, Drive for- Oh, Drive for Week 5. Drive for Week- All right, we should be clear.
0:51
I'm sorry. Yeah [laughs]. I should be clear. Drive for- I did the same thing... by the way, it shouldn't be Drive for Week 5 either, it should be Drive through Week 5. I, yes, you are correct [laughs].
0:59
It should be for Drive for Week 6 [laughs]. Yes [laughs]. So, we're off to a fine start this morning. Yeah, sorry DraftKings, we're trying to promote it. [laughs] You were trying to promote it.
1:07
Anyway, DraftKings did this, this, this great thing where they have a, it's called Drive for Week 5. What it is is essentially a match between two NFL teams with a tie thrown in, right? It's a three-way.
1:17
Um, and they put up six d- they put up 12 different one of these or six different? I think it's 12. No, it's six. I was also looking at a different- Six different ones.
1:28
Yeah, I was also looking at a different state last night. I realized I had more options than what I had showed you originally. Oh. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. Okay. So we're gonna go through a bunch of these today- Yeah...
1:36
'cause I believe that you have landed on something that is so bettable. I, I, I'm with you.
1:44
I, I mean, this said, I know we match on one of them, but like it was, as soon as I sat down, the first one I looked at, I'm like, "I'd, I'd bet this. I'd bet this- I bet this... right now if it was available to me."
1:53
That's exactly right, and you hit on a point also, which is we don't have the ability to bet DraftKings here in Nevada. DraftKings is not in this jurisdiction, so not like we can influence it.
2:03
This is one of these where, you know, oftentimes
2:06
i- you know, we go through props that are available where we can't bet them because they're not in Nevada, and we say, we're very honest though, "Yeah, we probably wouldn't bet it even if we were there or not."
2:15
These, we would absolutely bet. So we'll get to those in a moment too. Yeah, I, I mean, I think, I think I found three that I, I would bet. I found two for sure, and like the other four- Right...
2:25
I kind of wanted to also [laughs]. Like I've got three I think I would bet, and probably two more that I, are heavy leans one way for me. Oh, we gotta go through all of them. Um, we'll do that.
2:35
Drew Dinsick will join us here as well. Paul Spohrer will join us. Paul Carr, more soccer today. Uh, let me get this straight, uh, Kelly, I have a question for you. So, um, uh- Suck again...
2:45
how many, uh, how many goals did Romelu Lukaku score i- so far? Zero. Now, does he have any games moving forward to add to that total? Zero moving forward. So that's unfortunate, right? That's a bit of a challenge.
2:55
Yeah, that, that's bad. Okay. At least you guys went with the long shot bet of, uh, of Golden Boot. I just had him to lead the, lead his own team in scoring, which he's not going to have accomplished.
3:04
[laughs] Soccer, Paul Carr later on the show. USA with a, uh, fine, uh, just a fine performance last night. God, that was a gross game. I, can I be honest with you? Yeah. Fell asleep at halftime. It was sad, yeah.
3:17
I, I, it was- Fell asleep at halftime... it, I feel like I watched a lot of soccer yesterday, and boy it was brutal. Um- There was not much scoring either in Europe or in CONCACAF America.
3:25
[laughs] Um, a lot of officiating, uh, uh- Well, this is what I wanna talk about... outrage right in the US game last night that I don't even fully understand, right?
3:32
Oh, I think I, like for the half that I saw, not to get all Tony Kornheiser that I like fell asleep at halftime, I don't know what happened, but the, that referee, and again I'm, we are not the biggest soccer experts in the world, but it was clear to everyone, the announcers, the halftime crew, that he had multiple, to say questionable is an understatement.
3:53
Yeah. There was the yellow card, he breaks, going to put up the yellow card and he let play resume. That was, uh, that was bizarre. He let play continue, I should say. Yes, that was bizarre.
4:00
And then there was a handball where the Americans had an advantage and he whistled it dead. So- I, I don't re- I don't know, I don't know if I remember the last time a broadcast was as open- Oh...
4:12
about blasting a referee during the game, during a match, during a game like that last night. I mean, it was over and over again. Yeah, I'm just mentioning too, there's more. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
4:22
Paul Carr will get us that coming up.
4:24
Uh, first though, 'cause I know, uh- And then, and then I caught a video this morning where he [laughs] I guess Pulisic, who was angry the whole game about it, but he went, went up to shake the, all the refs' hands after the game, and the guy b- the guy snubbed him.
4:36
The guy snubbed him. Pulisic, Pulisic put his hand out to shake him, the guy snubbed him. [laughs] I know, it's amazing. Um, first though, some NBA news. You said some Donovan Mitchell news this morning real quick?
4:48
Yes, we do. Donovan Mitchell and the Cavs have agreed to a, the max extension, three years, $150 million. So he had one year left on his contract.
4:56
There was a lot of discussion whether he'd be trying to be mo- would he be moved this summer with that one year left, uh, of control on the contract.
5:04
Now, what essentially he does, so this is a three-year max extension from now. Is in the third year there is a player option.
5:13
So really what it does is extend, extends Cleveland's control, uh, for him over the next two seasons, and then he's gonna have that player option up.
5:20
So we could be back, right back where we started from next summer already. Starting to, they're starting to talk about is he possibly on the market?
5:27
But three years from now is when they're expecting that next bump in salary, Gil.
5:32
So everybody's kind of thinking, "Okay, he's gonna, he'll stay there for the next couple year, couple more years, and then jump in on the first next big movement with the salary cap and be able to land a big deal."
5:43
You, weren't you the guy that was like, "He's definitely out of there after this year"? Didn't you say? I thought, I thought so. Yeah. I thought so. Good for Cleveland. Does that move the needle at all?
5:50
They're not cracking the top four in the East, are they? Well, it's, so that's what, this is what's interesting about Cleveland.
5:55
Also, I, I, Darius Garland now becomes- I, I mean, w- i- I would th- I would think this, but a lot of people have said this too, and we've gotten with, you know, this has all kind of been wrong.
6:04
Either, either Donovan Mitchell or Darius Garland, one of the two of them, was probably leaving this summer. So if Mitchell's staying, is G- Garland now a little bit more on the open market?
6:13
There's been some reports, though, that they've been a little bit cl- more closed off talking about him with teams than expected. So maybe that opens up here, maybe it doesn't.
6:21
The one thing that's tough with Cleveland as far as wh- whether it moves the needle or not, Donovan Mitchell's gone 'Cause what, I guess what I'm asking, the way to ask that is, was it built in to the market that he was staying or leaving?
6:31
Um, y- it, I, I don't think it mo- It did not move much. Yeah, it did not move. So it was already built in. So it was kind of built in. Yeah.
6:36
Um, the, I mean, the thing that's tough with Cleveland is it's not, it, it, they're, they're different from a lot of other teams where a lot of these guys, if a lot of their younger guys just continue to improve, right?
6:46
That's how they get better, right? Is, is Mobley gonna take another step forward? Is Jarrett Allen gonna take another step forward? If Darius Garland's there, does he take another step forward?
6:54
I think the team's got the pieces there that they could be good. It's just we haven't really seen it, right, over the past couple years. They've been a good team in the East. They just haven't been a great team.
7:03
Um, the other thing is Klay Thompson signing with the Dallas Mavericks. Klay Thompson signing with the Dallas Mavericks, which is, you know, the official end.
7:13
We already knew that the, uh, the Warriors dynasty was over, but that marks the official end to the Warriors dynasty. I was retweeting a piece that, uh, you and I did in April. Yep.
7:21
When I said, if this is in fact the last game that Klay Thompson plays in a Warriors uniform, uh, w- you know, let's pour out a 40 for him, basically, and here's the tribute. Um,
7:31
Klay reportedly taking less money in pursuit of another championship, a guy who rarely knows seasons where he's not playing in an NBA Finals, I guess.
7:40
So he's like, "Eh, let me see if I can, uh, latch onto, uh, Luka and the, and the Mavericks here." Significant for you or, like, just on the margins? Um, fairly.
7:49
I, I, I think the combination, if you look in, i- look at the whole of what Dallas did, um, this fra- with so far in free agency, where you've, where you've got... You've moved Tim Hardaway. You moved Josh Green.
8:02
Um, and you're getting these pieces back in r- in, in, in Derrick Jones Jr., which, who was obviously massive for them in the playoffs. Um, and, you know, Tim Hardaway Jr.
8:11
was big for them in the regular season and then didn't play at all in the playoffs.
8:14
I think when you're exchanging those guys for Klay Thompson, Dončić, Marshall, who I love, coming over from the Pelicans, I think that was a great pickup.
8:23
I think he is a, he might not be as great on ball defensively what, as what Derrick Jones Jr.
8:29
brought to the table, but as far, he's still a good defender, big strong dude who's gonna be able to play in their three and the four, and guard some of those guys on the perimeter, uh, that other teams are gonna throw out.
8:38
I think he's a great signing. Quentin Grimes is, is involved in that deal too. If Quentin Grimes gets back at all to what he looked like a couple years ago with the Knicks.
8:46
Overall, I think they, I think it is a pretty significant improvement from that group that they had a year ago.
8:52
And I mean, for, you know, for those of us that had Mavericks tickets, how many times were you just watching three pointers from above that break area just brick in that finals?
9:02
And now it's Klay Thompson who's gonna be there with all the open looks he's probably ever going to have wanted to s- to have seen his entire career with playing off of Kyrie and Luka.
9:11
Warriors meanwhile get De'Anthony Melton, looking for Lauri Markkanen maybe. Um, I just want to say this about Klay too.
9:18
Klay has, okay, s- four championships, four titles, six NBA Finals appearances, five All-Star games. Um, but two of the coolest NBA records you could ever have. Oh, totally.
9:29
14 three pointers made in a game, which is the second coolest. Uh, Curry and a, and a couple others have 13 made in a game, but Klay holds it at 14.
9:38
And the coolest of all time, 37 points in one quarter of basketball, which he did in the third quarter of a game against Sacramento Kings back in 2015, the year that the Warriors won 73 games.
9:49
I don't know if you've ever tried to relive that quarter, but if you look at the play-by-play, Klay doesn't take a shot for the first two minutes of it. In fact, I think he has a turnover, right?
9:59
So it's really 37 points in 10 minutes. And for the first almost seven minutes of that remaining 10 minutes, I think it's 6:58, he scores 19 points.
10:12
So the last three minutes and two seconds of that quarter, he scores 18. [laughs] Which is, that's what made it so unbelievable too. It was just, it crescendoed. It was incredible.
10:23
And I, I don't know how, I don't know if anybody ever looked this up, but, like, how many times in the history of the NBA has anybody scored 18 points in three minutes and two seconds?
10:32
It's probably, you can probably count it on one hand. Well, the oth- the other one that was- Unless, of course, Wilt did it a couple times... dude, the f- the, the 14 threes game too.
10:39
The other one that was weird about that is he had, like, what did he have, like, 11 dribbles or something? Like, like- Oh, yeah. Never dribbled... it was some insane stat like that. [laughs] It's amazing.
10:47
Like, he had more threes than dribbles in the game.
10:49
Straight to the Hall of Fame, but, uh, one more pit stop in Dallas, apparently, on the way there, trying to get himself another NBA Finals appearance and then perhaps another NBA title.
10:58
Uh, I have tennis picks, five of them, still to come. Can I rattle them off real quick? Yeah. All right. On the ladies' side, I'm on Victoria Golubic against Julie Niemeier. Golubic, G-O-L-U-B-I-C.
11:10
She's at, uh, I got her at -115 last night, all at visa.com/picks. And Olivia Gadecki, she's a +165 dog against Robin Montgomery. Those are still yet to start. And then on the men's side, there are three.
11:23
Mackie McDonald, Mackenzie McDonald, the American, +128 against Emil Ruusuvuori. Rinky Hijikata. You know Rinky Hijikata, don't you, Kelly? Love Rinky. Uh, -135 against Flavio Cobolli.
11:35
And then the over 44.5 games in the Christopher Eubanks-Quentin Halys game, which should be a serve bot battle. Those five. I'll run them back on the other side as well. Drew Dinsick as well. Numbers game.
11:48
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12:57
Get instant access to our all-new NFL betting guide. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. Let me give you those, uh, tennis plays real quick once more, 'cause I, uh, rifled through 'em just before the break.
13:09
Um, and I will, uh, I'll do a little price comparison to make sure that these are still in range where you should play them here, as Drew Dincic stands by. Um, let's see here.
13:19
Okay, on the ladies' side, I have, uh, still to come, 'cause these got pushed back. I believe there was rain, and there was a delay of, uh, of the order of play this morning, so these are still, uh, yet to begin.
13:29
I am on Victoria Golubic again at, uh, -115, uh, in her match against Jule Niemeier. Golubic right now is at -102, so even better for you. Gadecki, I got at +165, Olivia Gadecki against Robin Montgomery. She's +157.
13:47
You could still play that. And then on the men's side, um, two sides and a total. Uh, Rinki Hijikata I got at -135. Hijikata is now -149. I'm not sure I would play that anymore. That's too, that's too high.
14:02
Uh, Mackie McDonald, Mackenzie McDonald, I got at +128. +123, still playable against Emil Ruusuvuori. And then the, uh, total, uh, I'm sure is still there, over 44.5. Double-checking.
14:13
Uh, on Eubanks/Halis, it's, it's actually 44. It actually went a half against me. I think that's a serve bot, uh, match, and I think that goes over between those two.
14:22
Uh, yesterday Drew and I were just talking off air, and you know this from, uh, listening to the show yesterday, everybody, I had, uh, Dion Pari, um, against, [laughs] uh, Osaka. We had the over.
14:32
That's the one thing that did hit. But she was a th- +302 dog against Osaka, and we were watching the end of this match yesterday right after the show.
14:40
We bring in Drew Dincic now, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, uh, the host of not only the Deep Dive Podcast, but also, of course, NBC Sports Bet the Edge, the first with Andy Molitor, the second with Jay Croucher.
14:50
Dion Pari, uh, I would not have expected this from her, but not only did she get nervous, her serve, she double-faulted away the game. I mean, two to end it, but also there was multiple even in the game before that.
15:03
The serve didn't even, it barely got to the net, Drew. Good God. The nerve- Yeah. [clears throat] Of these players is not always there when, when the time comes. Yeah.
15:12
In the, uh, in the biz we call that, uh, she got the yips. She got the yips. Uh. [laughs] Yeah. And, uh, at the w- at the, at the wrong time.
15:20
[laughs] Uh, the key, key question I have for you is, uh, gonna go back to the well against Naomi? 'Cause, uh- Yeah... Emma Navarro is a dog price tomorrow. Am I reading this right? Yeah, it shouldn't be. Should not be.
15:32
No. [laughs] No. No, certainly not. Yeah. Plus money on Navarro.
15:35
And I, I mean, you know, look, Osaka, uh, had a very similar turn of form, uh, f- you know, in, in her first round match at Roland Garros, where she looked at times just quite bad.
15:47
Uh, and then came out and played the best match of tennis of anyone not named Iga, uh, at that tournament, and almost defeating Iga. So who knows?
15:55
Maybe Osaka shows up and she plays a different style of, uh, you know, just a higher quality of tennis tomorrow. But, uh, Navarro is a, is a really tough player and a really tough draw for her.
16:03
I'm surprised that she's a dog price. And, uh, just in general, I, you know, I agree with, uh, your sides.
16:09
Um, my biggest stake today that I have in action, um, going with the, uh, the hot qualifier, Alicia Parks, uh, taking on Waz. Never really been a Waz grass fan at all.
16:19
And, uh, I gotta tell you, if there was one player, you know, w- in the q- women's qualifying who really caught my attention, it was Parks. She was dynamite.
16:28
Uh, so I hope she carries that form into this, uh, match, and she takes down, uh, Waz at a dog price. So that's a fun one.
16:34
But, uh, yeah, it's been, uh, it's been lean, uh, it's been lean, lean going so far for the, uh, the real big underdogs outside of, uh, of course the great Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, who gets her first ever- [laughs]...
16:50
main draw grass win of her career against the defending champion today. Yeah. Um, amazing. Marketa Vondrousova now moves to 12 and 14 on grass in her career. Of course, seven of those wins came- [laughs]...
17:08
in one tournament last year [laughs] where she won the title at Wimbledon. Absolutely bizarre kind of, you know, career numbers that Vondrousova is putting up at this point.
17:19
We were talking about this on the Beating the Book, uh, Wimbledon preview podcast, me, you, and Zach Cohen, how last year's Vondrousova run to the Wimbledon title will probably be the one... Not probably. Is.
17:31
Like, the Wimbledon preview pod we did last year, I remember saying to you afterwards, "Drew, we didn't even bring up her name," and your response quickly was, "How? Why would we have?" Why?
17:40
[laughs] She had won two grass t- two grass matches in her career. I was in Korea at the time.
17:45
I was looking at the scores, and I just remember thinking, I was like, "Is this, am I in some, like, time zone vortex where I'm not looking at the proper scores?"
17:54
And here she is getting bounced by, uh, Bouzas Ma- Maneiro, Jessica Bouzas Maneiro from, uh, Spain, here in round number one. 12 and 14 lifetime. Yeah, clean, yeah. Wow. And a Wimbledon champ. The fact that Boos...
18:08
I, I honestly, like, hat tip to Boos Mernard getting into the draw without qualifying. I had no idea she was, uh, she had p- compiled enough results to this point, uh, to be, uh, you know, top 80.
18:19
I guess she's 83rd right now. Um, but, uh, yeah, she's, she qualified at Wimbledon last year. She's played five grass matches in her life, and then she just goes and, uh, straight sets the, uh, defending champion.
18:30
Uh, it, it's absolutely wild. And, you know, they... It, it's a little bit of flat Earth in general on the women's side of the tour on grass, as we've kind of well documented, and, um, anything can happen.
18:40
But, uh, that was a, that was a wild one, and I think in general, uh, just kind of speaks to, uh, uh, the fluky nature of last year's ch- champion.
18:48
Um, I wanna, for those who are looking to jump in on futures, maybe didn't pre-flop. Um, Aryna Sabalenka pulled out yesterday. She had indicated over the weekend she's got this shoulder thing.
19:00
It's not, it's not common for tennis players. I read that to be a rotator cuff injury. It sounded like she was saying it's kind of baseball-ish, but she didn't say those words. [laughs] Uh, but she's out anyway.
19:10
And then on her side of the bracket yesterday, Mirra Andreeva, gone. Zheng Qinwen, gone. Um- Mm... some others. Cirstea. Naomi didn't look great.
19:19
Um, I had said before the tournament, I was like, "Maddie Keys and Daria Kasatkina." Daria Kasatkina was over the weekend where I made bets on her because she's on that side of the bracket as well.
19:30
You, you look to certain players on that half as well, the non-Iga half? Well, yeah.
19:35
I mean, my, my biggest, uh, runner, right, is, is and was, you know, you know, pre-tournament was Coco, and then post, uh, Sabalenka pull out, I added more 'cause I didn't think that the move really reflected how big of a, a deal that was.
19:50
And, um, yeah, I mean, the, the draw is wildly imbalanced now. The top is tough. The bottom is weak. Yeah. And Coco, I thought, uh, you know, the...
20:00
She has not had a lot of success at Wimbledon, which is why she's kind of flying under the radar. Um, but, uh, her, uh, performance yesterday I thought was outstanding.
20:10
I mean, she took on a player that she's clearly better than who's sh- but she is, you know, has had difficulty in the past really handling Dolehide's kind of craft.
20:18
And I thought, uh, I thought what we saw from Coco yesterday showed a lot of new kind of weapons. Uh, hadn't really ever seen her utilizing the slice like that. Uh, and her net play was a 10. Like, what, outstanding.
20:31
I think she won 9 out of 10 points she went to the net.
20:34
Um, and just in general, the, you know, just the variety and the quality of, uh, her grass game yesterday, to me, looked like the confirmation I needed to kind of believe this sincerely that she has a chance to win this.
20:45
But, um, you know, she's, she's gonna have a tough, uh, quarterfinal opponent, whoever comes out of the top half there in, uh, Q4. If it's Keys, if it's, you know, it, it could be, um...
20:56
There are a number of runners up there who are, are pretty decent. Um, uh, you know, that's gonna be a tough one. But, uh, the Q3 opponent in the semifinal all of a sudden on the bottom half now looks real winnable.
21:08
Um, I agree with you that Kasatkina has the highest likelihood of anyone coming out of Q3, which is crazy.
21:14
I mean, she's a good grass player, but, like, the fact that her chances of coming out of Q3 were close to zero with Sabalenka in the draw, and now they're like- That's right... 22, 25%. [laughs] Like- Yeah...
21:24
she was not, she wa- she will not ever beat Sabalenka. If you, if Sabalenka is out there with a torn rotator cuff, she's still probably gonna beat her.
21:33
Um, but now with her out of the way, that, uh, that really does open up her path pretty, uh, pretty clearly.
21:38
And, uh, and then the other massive winner was Emma Raducanu, a name you may not have heard for quite a while because she has done, again, like, you wanna talk about [laughs] something that in hindsight looked pretty fluky, uh, her run at the US Open where she went from qualifying to champion, um, in, you know, a year where frankly the WTA was down.
22:00
Uh, and, you know, she, she stormed her way to a US Open title before then, you know, backing it up to z- you know, with nothing for the last two years.
22:09
Uh, you know, she now has an opportunity to, uh, you know, retain a little bit of glory.
22:14
She obviously opted not to qualify for Roland Garros because she wanted to prep for grass, so this is kind of proof of concept whether her team was right or wrong. And, uh, she dodges Katarina.
22:26
Y- you know, she dodges, uh, uh, Alexandrova yesterday, uh, who pulls out. Yeah. And now her, her draw's wide open too, so, um, yeah, I would expect Raducanu or Kasatkina comes out of Q3.
22:36
I think Jessie Pegula in her quarter. I think, uh- Yeah... I don't even mention Danielle Collins 'cause she's in Iga's quarter, but it, it may have a big American flavor on the ladies' side.
22:45
We'll come back, Drew, on the Olympics, on the NBA, and more next. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game, live from Bar Canada at The D. Gil Alexander, Kelly Middlin.
22:59
We'll get to those, uh, NFL props coming up o- on the show. I just wanna say, uh, the, uh, the Royals July bet, Kelly, um, Circa closed.
23:08
When Circa took them down yesterday, when the month of July essentially started with three baseball games yesterday, the Royals were plus 650. And at Caesars, I don't know, is it still up at Caesars? I think so.
23:20
They are the short shot at 7 to 1. Really? Yeah. Did we do that? Th- th- that moved. Um- Was it 17 to 1, right? W- you bet it at? Yes, sir. 17 to 1. Yeah. Yeah. I t- I typed up on that graphic, yeah. Yeah.
23:34
Drew Dincic kind enough to join us once again, @whale_capper. Uh, the Deep Dive podcast he does with Andy Molitor about to launch into his unbelievable NFL previews on that podcast.
23:44
Uh, and then NBC Sports Bet the Edge, which he does with the, uh, Australian-accented Jay Croucher, which makes everything sound super-duper smarter than he already is.
23:53
It's Drew Dincic joining us, uh, from Long Beach courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Um, men's side, there's really no headline yet. It's just kind of standard operating procedure so far on the men's side.
24:04
Yeah, I mean, the big headline is we were gonna say, [sighs] uh, farewell to Sir Andy Murray in singles. Yes. Yes. And, uh, nah, not to be.
24:12
Uh, he was gonna kind of get his, uh, going away You know, opportunity on center court. Withdraws. Match now gets a lucky loser. I think Murray, it sounds like, is probably still gonna try to play doubles.
24:25
Um, I'm not exactly sure what's going on with him, [laughs] and I definitely didn't fancy him as going to go deep into this tournament regardless 'cause he's just had back surgery.
24:34
But, uh, um, all said, uh, it is still kind of fascinating that, uh, you know, Rafa goes out in the French, and now Andy Murray is gone and at Wimbledon, uh, Joker's kind of the last of the kind of old guard remaining.
24:48
And, uh, you know, I think his... I, I'm kind of coming around on his draw. Uh, the bottom half looks very beatable.
24:55
Uh, Q3 is sort of the, the, you know, the, the by default weakest quarter because it doesn't have a Sinner, it doesn't have an Alcaraz, it doesn't have a, have a Djokovic.
25:03
Um, and Djokovic got, uh, I think a very, very fair draw, particularly early on. Like, uh, if he was going to get tested in this tournament, it was gonna be in the first couple rounds before he had his legs under him.
25:14
Um, and, you know, before he kind of knew sort of the state of his knee and what he was capable of doing.
25:19
Um, and he gets a very, very soft landing here, uh, with, uh, taking on qual- you know, basically back to back qualifiers, uh, who have less than about a 2% chance to, uh, defeat him outright in a best of five match.
25:31
So, he'll be there in round two, I mean round three, and that's where things will get a little bit interesting.
25:37
But, uh, overall, I don't really see anyone on the bottom who has enough pedigree, enough quality to get the better of him on grass.
25:44
Um, the breakout player so far for me, at least eyeball test, has been, uh, uh, the Frenchman who came through as a lucky loser, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard.
25:55
Holy smokes, he has one of the most dynamite serves, uh, that you will ever come across. So far right now he's up 2-1 in a fourth set breaker against Seb Korda. He has 40 aces.
26:05
His first serve percentage, uh, points one- Goodness... 84%. Like, like, he is, uh, just absolutely dynamite. And, uh, Korda has so far produced 11 break chances and converted zero of them.
26:17
Because basically, like, Perricard's doing this thing where you know when, uh, you have confidence in your serve, and you're like, "Okay, well, first was a f- was a fault, uh, I'm gonna take a little bit off this second serve."
26:29
Not Perricard. [laughs] Like, he's out there bombing 140 on his second serves. And I, I don't know that I've counted as many second serve aces as I've seen in this match so far this morning. Wow.
26:39
So, uh, very, very cool to see, uh, him kind of show up because he is, he is just shooting up the rankings right now. He is having a magnificent spring.
26:47
Um, and, uh, just in general is, uh, kind of has exactly the right, uh, mindset to be a, a problem, uh, in that portion of the draw. So, yeah.
26:56
Um, excited to see what Dra- Jack Draper looks like, if the nerves are gonna be tough for him, uh, now that he's sort of carrying the weight of expectation of the, uh, of the UK.
27:05
Um, but, uh, yeah, I think, uh, in general, um, you know, Sinner took care of business yesterday. He's got a tough test against Berrettini tomorrow.
27:14
Uh, and I think in general that's gonna be a, uh, uh, a fascinating match to watch because, uh, Sinner had some wobbles yesterday. And I thought he was gonna be the best player in this tournament.
27:23
I thought he was kind of exactly primed to, to break out on grass, 'cause, you know, remember two years ago he gave a, a very in form Djokovic a very real test, uh, in, uh, I believe the quarterfinals, and, uh, took him to, um, you know, a fifth set, uh, with, uh, the level he was able to produce.
27:41
And Sinner is now a much better player than he was then.
27:44
So, uh, I kind of had assumed that this, uh, championship went through Jannik Sinner, but, uh, again, yesterday I was not, uh, super impressed with what we saw even though he was up against a real opponent.
27:54
Um, and uh, just in general, like, his path is not easy here.
27:57
So, um, yeah, I think Alcaraz is still a bet against for me, but, you know, and, and just that's more of along the lines of having not seen the form from him so far this year that he carried through last year to the championship.
28:10
But, um, you know, this probably comes down to the big three, uh, and, uh, winner of Sinner or Alcaraz, uh, taking down Joker.
28:17
Yeah, Jannik Hanfmann, a 35-year-old, uh, g- took a set off and covered the game spread against Sinner yesterday. All right. Uh, NBA.
28:25
Anything happen so far free agency wise, and I will throw in the draft as well, that has triggered anything for you? Bet wise, thought wise, anything. Uh, not really.
28:38
I would say that I agree with the market move on the Sixers being the second choice in the East.
28:45
Um, but at the same time, if you were betting your hard earned dollars in the month of July on the Sixers, you are putting the, uh, you're putting your hopes and dreams in the, uh, the health of Joel Embiid's knees, uh, which is a bad bet in my experience.
29:01
[laughs] So, uh, if you want to have some Sixers exposure, I'm fine waiting until April. Um, and I think in general, uh, there's no one in the East that has done much to, to really kind of move the needle for me.
29:13
I thought the price that the Knicks paid to get Mikal Bridges was hilariously bad.
29:19
Um, I know that, like, a lot of those first round picks are just gonna be in the high 20s, and they have a good enough young core that they're gonna c- you know, they're gonna be good for all of those years that they're giving up their first to the Brooklyn Nets.
29:30
But, um, I don't rate Mikal Bridges even close to the, uh, compensation that they gave up for him. Um, and then, uh, yeah, I, I was, uh, a little, um, uh, a little surprised at some of the moves in the West.
29:44
Um, I don't think anyone's gotten better besides the Oklahoma City Thunder, and the biggest move for the Oklahoma City Thunder was bringing in Alex Caruso.
29:52
Um, and, you know, they obviously spent some money on, uh- You know, Hart and Stein, who's g- who's good.
29:58
Like, don't get me wrong, like, that's a fun piece, but, you know, they have now a potential closing five on defense that looks extremely dynamic and very, very good.
30:09
I don't see a weakness now on the defensive side of the ball, and, um, the Thunder should be able to basically win with defense, uh, next year, and I would make them the, you know, the favorites in the West at, as currently rostered.
30:20
Uh, and everybody else looks to have taken a step backwards. Nuggets take a step backwards. Uh, Timberwolves not really doing anything is surprising. Um, and, uh, I thought Dallas got, maybe it got worse.
30:31
Um, they have now de- more defensive questions with, in the absence of Derrick Jones Jr. Um, and, uh, I think in general, um, you know, LA Clippers down. Phoenix Suns, nothing.
30:44
Uh, you know, so, you know, the West, which looked like a gauntlet on paper, uh, particularly last year in the playoffs as you looked across the quality of teams that made it into the final eight, I, now it looks, it looks like it's taken a step back to me.
30:56
So, um, you know, if the Celtics, uh, the Celtics aren't, you know, fairly priced to win the title, uh, considering that I think they have at least a 50% chance to win the East, uh, I think that's the bet to be made.
31:08
And Jason Tatum just signing a new deal where he's making over 50 million a year. 50 million. Not bad if you can get it. Uh, all right. [laughs] Uh, last- Big number. Big number.
31:19
You know, 50 million here, 50 million there, all of a sudden it's real money. Um, all right, last two minutes here.
31:24
Last week you came on the show, you were kind enough to give us, and I think I'm counting this right, 47 different Olympics bets.
31:29
[laughs] Um, do you, do you have anything, uh, any Olympics thoughts of the moment as we approach the Olympic Games here later this month? Yeah.
31:40
Um, I watched, uh, yeah, so we can follow up the swimming commentary with a little thoughts of track and field and gymnastics, which I watched this last weekend.
31:48
Um, a little up and down for us on the track, uh, as far as kind of qualifying goes.
31:54
Uh, we had a couple expected performers who, uh, I had kind of softly penciled in for gold, like Aiting Liu in the 800 for the women, uh, who did not qualify because she tripped and fell in the final race.
32:06
Um, and, uh, you know, in general, like outside of Sydney McLaughlin, I wasn't especially impressed with any of the runs from any of the men or women.
32:14
I think, uh, our men sprinters in general looking at the market are a little overrated coming into this one. Um, and, uh, so I'm, I'm kind of bracing for disappointment out of Team USA on the athletics- Wow...
32:26
uh, in week two. Um, and then the opposite for gymnastics.
32:30
Our women's gymnastics program, uh, you know, the, you'll remember from, uh, Tokyo, uh, Simone Biles was expected to win five gold medals, but she got the twisties, yo. She did. And- Yeah...
32:43
the, derailed, uh, her efforts in twen- in the 2020 Olympics. Um, and I gotta tell you, her qualifying, uh, up in Minnesota was dynamite.
32:53
Uh, she was as good as her peak performances in, uh, vault, in floor, uh, and close in, uh, balance beam. So, uh, that launches Team USA to very likely gold for the team.
33:07
It launches her to likely gold for individual all-around, and she should win gold in, well, she, I think she will win gold in vault, probably floor and beam as well.
33:16
So she's back in the four to five gold medal territory, which would be huge, because Team USA's over 39 and a half gold medals is, uh, staring at me. Will they put up a world record prop for McLaughlin probably?
33:28
Oh, without question. Without question. Yes. Yeah. Yeah, and I would take yes on that- Yeah... 'cause she looked like she had more to go. We got steeplechase. [laughs] That's next week.
33:37
We got twisties and yips in two consecutive segments. Well done, Drew. Thank you. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:53
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34:01
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34:13
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34:18
You gotta go to vsin.com/guide, G-U-I-D-E, to get your copy of our all new NFL betting guide today. That's vsin.com/guide. And again, everybody did a wonderful job on that.
34:31
Uh, special shout out to Adam Burke, Matt Humans, who always do great jobs on every guide. Wes Reynolds is always prominently featured. Zach, uh, do a wonderful job.
34:40
And the NFL betting guide, of course, is at the, uh, top of the heap, if you will. How great is it to talk NFL, to like start to talk NFL again? Oh, it's great. Yeah, it's great. We're getting there.
34:51
I don't know if you know this, but we just talked women's gymnastics in the last segment. That's right. Watch out. In the course of the last three numbers games, we have talked NHL draft and women's gymnastics.
35:00
[laughs] That's what we do. It's what we do. How about some NFL, though? I want that, I want that steeplechase bet. That's coming. Have you, have you ever seen anybody, like, live doing the steeplechase? Oh my gosh, yes.
35:13
It's fantastic. It is hilarious. It's my favorite event. That's why I bring it up. Who, I, I would, I, I'm sure it's a quick Google search, but the, the thought of actually coming up with that event.
35:23
Here's what we're gonna do. You know track, right? Now we're gonna put water in there and hurdles. [laughs] I always thought it was like- Yeah...
35:31
I always thought it was like the, okay, there's, there's track, there's cross country, right? Right. And then some guy was like, "Wait a second. What if?" What if? [laughs] "What if?" How about a puddle of water?
35:40
How crazy would this be? It's like, not really, bro. Not, not crazy. And it really is the, like, the equivalent of a puddle. Putting up a puddle there. It's, it's like a puddle. It's a puddle. A square puddle.
35:49
Anyway, Kelly Bidlin, if we can get Kelly Bidlin to do a steeplechase once around the track. I couldn't make it over that damn hurdle. Are you kidding me? [laughs]I couldn't make it over that hurdle even without jumping.
36:02
If I tried to, like, climb my way over, it would still fall over. [laughs] I couldn't make it over that damn hurdle? [laughs] All right. Like, I can put no weight on it. It's a, it's a good point.
36:11
We w- we've seen what happened with Kelly on the football field, so we don't wanna do that. Yeah. All right. Yeah, I mean, that puddle jump seemed serious. [laughs] I don't know if I can put that strain on my calf, okay?
36:19
Oh, man. Okay. It's been... But I'd love to know, is there, like, somebody who mastered this event? Like, some- I'm so... Okay. I- Like, who is the Michael Jordan of the steeplechase? And obviously you get...
36:30
Well, I don't wanna say obviously, 'cause I don't know this, but you get points deducted or whatever if you hit a hurdle, right? If you just do hurdles. Yeah. Right? So do you get points deducted if you hit the water?
36:40
P- points deducted? Or whatever, right? Like, d- don't you get time taken off if you, if you're just doing regular hurdles? Oh, yeah, you get, you- If you knock over a hurdle, is there like a turn penalty or something?
36:48
Well, it's gonna slow you down. Yeah, but there's no points system, it's just timing on everything. I thought there was a penalty of some kind. In, maybe in the steeplechase there is, I don't know.
36:56
But not in, like, normal hurdles. Not in normal hurdles? No. Okay. Just slows you down. You think, like, Edwin Moses, when he won all those hurdles- So, what, so-... they're like, "I'm sorry, Edwin" [laughs]...
37:02
"you knocked over three of these." Wait, so what's the point of the, what's the point of the water, then? Like, y- you can just, you can jump in it, jump over it, like, it doesn't matter?
37:10
[sighs] Let's talk NFL- I don't know why I'm asking you this... let's talk NFL draft props. Again, one of these things we should have prepped before we got into a, [laughs] into a sidebar.
37:18
We should have done the steeplechase prep. We'll get to that. We're, we're gonna go, we're, and we're gonna dive deeper into the weirder events- Oh, no question... of, of the Olympics, yes. All of it, right?
37:26
Like, shot put. Who decided, like, putting something right under here? Yeah. You know the, you know the one I loved? Do they still do it? Is it handball, where it's like the- Yeah, just, yeah, yeah.
37:34
Like, you throw one in and it's like- Right... soccer, but they got like a three-point line? Yeah, instead of soccer or hockey, it's just using your head. I like that one. [laughs] I don't get it, but I like it.
37:41
I like that one. Like, I [laughs] Every, every country in the w- If there was a team that played here, I'd go check it out every time... every country in the world plays it except for us.
37:47
We're like, "We're not playing that." So w- so many of ours are, our sports are just better than yours. [laughs] Why should we play this stupid sport? Anyway, it's an ugly American viewpoint on things.
37:56
But I'm sorry, I fell asleep at halftime of the soccer game, so I kinda stick by it. All right, NFL. Good on DraftKings, because they put up these props which, again, are titled Drive for Week 5.
38:10
It's really Drive Through Week 5, but what it is essentially is a matchup between two teams with a tie thrown in, because of course two teams can go three and two or two and three or whatever and tie.
38:21
Um, and good on Kelly for finding these, because I think these are super-duper bettable, my God. All right, let me just go through a couple that I love.
38:31
I like a lot of them, but the two that I just think are slam dunks are these two. One, the Commanders are paired against the Patriots. The Commanders are minus 135, Drive for Week 5.
38:44
Commanders are minus 135, the Patriots are plus 225 in their matchup, and the tie is plus 275. Kelly, this is not a homer pick at all. Give me the Commanders at minus 135. Here is the Commanders' first five games.
38:59
At Tampa, home Giants, at Cincy, at Arizona, home Cleveland. All right. Sure, let's say you go the, the, let's say you go just, let's say you don't like them. All right, you give them the Giants game, right?
39:14
They can't win one of the at Tampas or the at Arizonas? Or the home Cleveland? They, they definitely can. Okay. Give them two wins. Here's what New England has. At Cincy, home Seattle, at Jets, at Niners, home Dolphins.
39:28
[laughs] I'm s- stop it. Just by default. All right, so- Commanders minus 135, end of story, bet it. Okay, that is, for New England. Yes. For New England. That is most likely...
39:41
I mean, that's between a half and one and a half wins. I was gonna say, bro, if you go one and four- Right... you, you're happy. Okay, so you, this is the one you and I matched on. Okay.
39:50
I- I think it was the first one I looked at and I said, "What am I missing here?" Oh, that's interesting. And this is, it, I'm just, I, I think I need to throw this out there now. I like Jayden Daniels.
39:59
I am high on the Commanders, so like when- Me too... when, when Gil and I are probably simpatico on them throughout the season, [laughs] like I'm just throwing that out there now, okay? So I'm with you on that.
40:08
That one jumped out immediately too, because it is, it is, you're talking Washington. You talked through it.
40:14
Bucs, Giants, Cardinals, all extremely beatable in my opinion, and it's okay, then you're looking at the Bengals and the Browns, fine. It moves up.
40:21
I did the thing where I like I just looked at the schedule first, and then I put my hand over like the, the price on the app. Right. And I'm just like, "Okay, I think it should be this."
40:28
And then I would w- and I'd be like, "What?" So I, I did the, I did that. There was a c- it was funny, 'cause a couple times where, where you were like, "What?" Like what- Yeah...
40:34
a good way, and then what, you're like, "Okay, maybe they're way too favored the other way." [laughs] Oh, my God. I did that a couple with, with I don't know, man. Some of these. So here's the...
40:40
So I love the Commanders in that one against the Patriots, minus 135. Can I bring up another Commanders one I have? Oh, yeah, please. Go ahead.
40:45
'Cause I, there was, they had another one posted against the Bears, and I am not as high on the Bears this season as I think a lot of people are. And I don't- Okay, how come I didn't see this one?
40:55
Which was this on- It's not... That, that's where I, and that's where I said before, I think I was looking in, I was looking in another state that I think had more options listed. [laughs] That's why I didn't see it.
41:02
Yeah. What was I looking in, New Jersey probably? Yeah. Yeah. I think you were in the New Jersey one, because that's where it usually defaults you. So the Bears. So this is Commanders,
41:11
the pricing on this, plus 390 on the Commanders, plus 390 on the tie, and then the Bears were like, you know what, minus 600 or something like that, okay?
41:20
I, sure, the Bears get the Titans at home, then they're on the road against the Texans, on the road against the Colts.
41:26
That's three weeks in a row to start the season with, I don't know, some AFC South teams, Gil, like d- I think the T- I mean, I think the Texans are gonna be great, but the Titans and the Colts I got a lot of question marks about, and could be better than where I think they're gonna be at.
41:40
And I like the Colts, so I think that Colts game's tough. Then they get the Rams at home, the Panthers at home. Okay, that's fine, but we just ran through that whole Commanders schedule.
41:49
I don't know that there's a huge difference between what you're likely seeing there. So I think if you b- I think if you bet I, I mean, I would take a shot on the plus 390 on both the Commanders and the tie.
42:00
I'd bet both, 'cause I think there is a chance that they could end up tying there. But with a number that long, you can easily do that.
42:06
So I think they're probably right around the same, the same record, but the Commanders could eke that, eke that out. So that was the other one I liked with the Commanders. These are so good.
42:14
Like, I would, uh, I would bet so many of these. Um, I didn't see that one, quite frankly. Um- Yeah, yeah, yeah. I, I... That's right. I swear I pulled up a list. I had one.
42:22
Let's, let's do another one of yours, 'cause I wanna save my second- Okay... for the n- for the next time we do this here. Um, yes.
42:26
The only one I l- the only other one I landed on that I thought I would definitely bet was the Dolphins over the Bills. And this is, I mean, what?
42:34
Both the Bills and Chiefs, right, with some pretty tricky, uh, tricky starts out of, out of the gate. Cardinals at home first for the Bills, but then it's Bills, Dolphins. So that is big, right?
42:45
When- Yeah, like some of these, they, they play each other They play each other. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. So- And also some involve byes Some involve byes. Yeah. Yes. I- all important to keep in mind. Um, so then there are...
42:55
So then they have, then they have a bye. They have a bye. Jags, Bills, uh, is the i- i- Jags at the Bills is their next game, and then their f- uh, week five game would be Bills at Ravens, okay? So Dolphins then,
43:12
Jags at the Dolphins, Bills at the Dolphins. Talked about that again. Then it is Dolphins at the Seahawks, but they get a little extra rest there. And then Titans at the Dolphins would be those games.
43:24
So if you take care of busine- it, it, it... I mean, it's really big taking care of business against the Bills.
43:30
But when you're talking Seahawks, Jags, Titans, give me that over, yes, the Cardinals should be easy for the c- uh, easy for the Bills, but Jags, Ravens are your other two ad- opponents there.
43:43
I think there's a little bit of value on the Dolphins. So I li- I liked that one. Uh, O- Miami, Miami at minus 140 over the Bills and the tie option. All right.
43:51
I like one as much, if not more, than my Commanders over the Patriots call, the Commanders at minus 135, but I will get to the explanation on that coming up, uh, after we talk soccer.
44:04
Let's talk soccer with Paul Car next, 'cause we have Euro Cup 2024. The quarterfinals are not completed yet in terms of who's playing. We gotta determine that today.
44:12
He's got thoughts on that, and we will look back at the United States performance yesterday, which at least the half I saw, they were playing well, but the, uh, the referee not doing them any favors.
44:23
We'll get into that with Paul Car. He's got some futures plays. That's on the other side. It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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