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Jul 2, 2026
A Numbers Game | July 2, 2026 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | July 2, 2026 | Hour 1
00:00
47:05
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:11
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. Gil Alexander in San Francisco, Kelly Midley in Las Vegas.
0:24
That's Kelly Midlin, everybody, in Las Vegas. Uh, good morning to you, sir. Good morning, my man. How you doing? I'm doing very well. Good. Chilling. Um, a lot of tennis being sweat out right now.
0:35
Uh, we'll get to that here momentarily. Dallin Cuff will join us, talk World Cup. Zach Cohen, all of his Wimbledon plays, uh, at the top of the hour, an hour from now.
0:45
We'll talk about MLB, the race to 10 wins in July, and of course, because it's Zach Cohen, that means it's Zach and Crack. Bill Krackomberger, unscripted, with Kelly on the desk. Are you looking forward to that?
0:57
Yeah, man, I really am. I really am. We- we'll see how it goes. Uh, we- we'll definitely do this today. We'll see how it goes.
1:02
I- the only thing, the only thing I'm worried about, Gil, is you, you getting boxed out a little bit, you know? Oh, yeah, you can't have that. You can't have that. Can't have that. Can't have that. Um, here's the dealio.
1:13
Uh, let's start with the tennis plays, 'cause three of the six, I have six plays today, three are already in action, three, uh, have yet to begin.
1:22
Currently, the ones that are in action, Lorenzo Sonego in a fifth set now with Gabriel Diallo. Sonego is plus 103. They're on se- uh, on serve early in the first... Excuse me, early in the fifth set.
1:34
Uh, I am down two sets to one in the Zachary Svajda, Kamil Majchrzak, that's Majchrzak, uh, match. Uh, Svajda's plus 150, so that is ongoing.
1:45
And the big one, Anna Blinkova, plus 502, up a break late in the first set against Marta Kostyuk. Ooh. Oh, boy. Ooh. Oh, boy. What could go wrong there?
2:00
Uh, the ones that have not started, your boy Grigor Dimitrov, Kelly. Grigor. Grigor plus 155 versus Jakub Menšík. That's a little later. Matteo Berrettini, $2 dollar dog versus Arthur Fils.
2:12
And Kamila Rakimova, Rakimova, plus 164 versus Maria Sakkari. Uh, so, uh, three still to come, three being sweat out right now. By the way, Iga, double parked outside, dispatches Karolina Pliskova.
2:27
That's our only future, 10 to one on the ladies' side.
2:30
She moves on to the third round, where it looks like, it looks like, if all continues, she will be facing, as expected, Alexiala, and that will be a banger of a match in round number three.
2:40
So all that happening on the tennis side. Uh, soccer though, whereas that's where all the headlines are stateside.
2:47
The United States of America on their way to the round of 16, a two-nil win yesterday, Kelly, over Bosnia. USA, USA!
2:55
[laughs] And Herzegovina, uh, not just any two-nil win, but a two-nil win where they had to play a half hour down a man. Yeah. Um, up one-nil. It was, uh, it was gonna be, you know, had to buckle up at that point.
3:09
But, uh, the US, uh, actually increases the lead. They win it two-nil. What a beautiful goal from Malik Tillman on the free kick. Just gorgeous, and the USA moves on to take on Belgium.
3:25
What did you think, beyond your USA love, what did you think about the, uh, this... I'll start by saying this. Look, I'm gonna let the hate wash over me. American sports fans chiming in on soccer. Mm-hmm.
3:35
But Kelly, what, what do you think about the, uh, the red card that put the US a man down? Yeah, I, I'll tell you, Danny and I were talking about it before the show, Gil. Uh, I, the...
3:44
Yeah, no, I'm not gonna be the guy who overreacts about every little, little soccer rule that I think I understand or don't understand.
3:51
But I saw, I saw when the guy went down, right when it occurred, and there's so little breaks in soccer, which is nice. Yeah. I used the opportunity, Gil, to, uh, g- I don't even know what I did.
4:01
But went, went and made a drink. I used the restroom, whatever. I came back, and when I got back to the couch, I was like, "Why, why are we down to 10 men? What did I miss?"
4:08
[laughs] I didn't realize I missed the red card incoming off of that play. So I, like, when it happened, I was like, "Wow, that looked like it, uh, that, uh, that looked like it actually hurt.
4:20
I'm gonna go, I'm, I'll, that might take a couple minutes. I'll come back." So I, look, man, I, it, it, it felt light for a red card, that's for sure.
4:27
But, you know, me, me and you talking soccer red cards, I'm enjoying everybody freaking out about they know exactly what a, what, what card should be given there.
4:35
Well, I wanna, I wanna try to say this as objectively as possible.
4:39
So that one, you know, most of the American pundits on TV, former players of Team USA squads, whether it be Alexi Lalas, Landon Donovan, they were destroying the, uh, the official for making that call.
4:50
Worked out for the USA anyway. Listen, I, I, it, it's, it's, it's a crime where the punishment far exceeds- Yes... the level of the crime.
5:01
My bigger, when it comes to that notion, where a, where a punishment far exceeds the level of the crime, my bigger issue, and this is, I mean this, again, humbly as a guy who does not watch as much soccer as others.
5:14
Mm-hmm.
5:15
But the reason that I think American sports fans, if I may speak for all America here, ladies and gentlemen, uh, I think the reason that American sports fans have difficulty sometimes with soccer, besides the faking of injuries, right?
5:27
That kind of goes against the American sensibilities to begin with. Certainly the red card that puts you a man down. But the Belgium-Senegal finish is really the one that I think bothers me the most.
5:38
Um, and I had no, I, I had already got my draw money, so there's, there's objectivity here. It has nothing to do with a bet. But Belgium is trailing two-nil. They get the dramatic goals from Lukaku.
5:50
They get the equalizer. We go into, you know, it's 120 minutes worth of, of soccer. And then on a play that occurs maybe, I don't know, 50 times-... in 120 minutes. Yeah.
6:03
I'm, don't, don't hold me to that number, but it happens all the time. Um, a slide is made by the defender. It, he doesn't get to the ball first, he actually gets the player first. Um, so I get that it's a call.
6:15
It happens to be in the penalty box, and so there's the penalty kick, and just like that, after so much drama, there's this empty feeling inside of, "Oh, they won on that?"
6:28
And so when we talk about a, a punishment exceeding the crime, I think that's, that, that ratio is what we have trouble with. Mm-hmm. It is, I- I'll tell you the, the American equivalent, it's a tie NFL game.
6:40
There's 30 seconds left. You're at your own 20-yard line. The quarterback heaves it as far as humanly possible, and they throw a flag for a defensive PI. Yeah. Right?
6:49
At the 10-yard line of the other, as far as he can throw the football. It just can change the game in such a way that doesn't appear commensurate with the crime, and doesn't feel justified in the moment.
7:02
I'll, I'll give the, the Paul Carr percentages, 'cause this is how I used to phrase it. Last thing on this.
7:07
Essentially, with that play in soccer yesterday in the Belgium-Senegal game, you turned what amounts to about a 10% chance to score a goal into an 85% chance- Mm... to score a goal.
7:21
And that, I think, again, humbly, as an American, again, I'll let [laughs] I'll let the hate wash over me from soccer hardos who are gonna be like, "You don't understand. It's been done like this all..." I get it.
7:31
That's our problem with it. Yeah. No, I don't know. I think you're, I think you're being incredibly fair about that. I don't, I mean, we're not, we're not criticizing.
7:38
We're not, not expecting the sport to change any time soon. This is the way it's always been done. Yeah.
7:43
It's just, yes, there are, you know, whether it's a penalty kick or a red card in a situation like that in the, in the US, USA game, I mean, to go from 11 to 10, guys, I, I mean, it's massive.
7:54
The, the, it's a massive penalty for something that, yeah, like, w- like you're talking about with the penal- uh, penalty kick. If it's a [laughs] some- occurs at any other location on the field, right?
8:04
You're not getting that opportunity. And to take a one-goal, uh, either advantage or to cut into a deficit, that's massive in soccer. So yeah, it's, uh, these things swing games.
8:15
They swing games, and not only do they swing games, Kelly, more importantly, uh, we don't have Fowler and Balogun for the next game. Yeah, yep. Uh, this is from ESPN.
8:24
VAR made their recommendations to the referee based on slow motion and still replays, which is not aligned with VAR protocols. We're going back to the, uh, the red card now in the, uh, Team USA game.
8:34
Uh, Andy Davies, referee, believes VAR made the incorrect decision on Balogun's red card. So- Yeah... again, differing, differing opinions there.
8:43
See, there's, uh, that, it, w- Danny and I were talking about this before the show, Gil. It's like, there's some interesting s- stuff going on here where I'm like, I don't really understand how these,
8:51
how there's some confusion over this. I mean, we're at the World Cup, right? Like, this is the highest level of soccer, and yeah, I know FIFA gets criticized [laughs] a lot, so I'm not gonna be the first one to jump.
9:00
But like, I mean, one of the first things I heard after the game, I'm sure you read it somewhere too or heard it too, of, "Oh, they'll look into this red card and see if they can get it rescinded."
9:09
And then it's like two hours later, people are like, "No, that's not something you can do." Like, that's just not something you can do.
9:15
A- and then Danny's talking, I didn't realize this VAR thing during the game yesterday, where it's like they, they were sto- slowing it down and putting it to stills that they're not supposed to do when reviewing something like that.
9:26
I, I, this is, a, a, if you're gonna have standards for how th- th- uh, something's officiated in this operations work, like, they gotta stick to them. Another triple header in the round of 32 today at the World Cup.
9:39
Uh, this begins at 3:00 PM Eastern, noon Pacific, so again, these staggered start times, uh, seemingly every day. Spain takes on Austria. Uh, Spain is a big favorite in this one.
9:50
The winner, that's at SoFi, by the way, today, uh, the winner will play the winner of the Portugal-Croatia game, which follows it immediately. Not immediately, but right after, 7:00 PM Eastern, 4:00 PM Pacific.
10:02
Portugal-Croatia, uh, is in Toronto. Winner of that, as I mentioned, will play the previous game, Spain versus Austria. And then the nightcap tonight, 11:00 PM Eastern, 8:00 PM Pacific, uh, this one in Vancouver.
10:13
Lovely Vancouver, Canada. Um, Switzerland and Algeria. Wow, forgot Algeria made it to the, uh, round of 32. Mm. The winner will play the winner of tomorrow's Colombia-Ghana match for a spot in the round of 16.
10:27
That game will then be played next Tuesday. By the way, the winner, the, uh, the winners of the, uh, Spain-Austria and Portugal-Croatia games, that round of 16 game is on Monday.
10:36
So, um, that's where we are with the United States of America, and, uh, we'll talk about this more, because the other big news, of course, was NBA-related. We'll talk more in depth about it, uh, a little later on.
10:46
We want to get to Dallin's World Cup thoughts here momentarily. Yeah.
10:48
But Kelly, just give me, just to, to whet the appetite for a later discussion, just give me your first reaction to the Jaylen Brown trade to the Philadelphia 76ers yesterday. I, uh, I mean, absolutely stunning.
11:00
A- absolutely stunning. Um, I think you could, I, I, I, I think you can compare it to a shocking, almost as shocking as Luka Dončić being traded from the Dallas Mavericks to the, to the Los Angeles Lakers.
11:14
And why do you- Wow... why do I say it that way, Gil? Because the Luka Dončić trade involved one phone call to the Los Angeles Lakers and one ver- one V. one trade.
11:23
The Boston Celtics have been shopping Jaylen Brown for weeks now, and this is the best they could get. So this is, as much as I'm gonna sit here and defend Jaylen Brown, this is how the league views him.
11:33
And, and, and it's shocking to, to, to f- uh, to see that happen yesterday, in my opinion.
11:38
Yeah, I feel corroborated in my opinion, because again, I think he's, you know, very good player who's getting treated salary-wise as a great player. It wasn't as shocking to me. I, I'm surprised by that.
11:48
We'll, we'll talk about that more. World Cup with Dallin next, though. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners, but let's be real. Mindset alone doesn't get bets home.
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13:17
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13:45
It's Gil Alexander in San Francisco, Kelly Bidlin back, uh, in Las Vegas. We get tweets at Beating The Book. Dan Piccirillo, hope I'm saying that all right, uh, Dan, Evil Genius HK.
13:56
He says, "I'm sorry that Benedict Bidlin didn't get his wish of a draw on regulation last night." I was right there with you, Kelly. 100%, yeah. Uh, I didn't even have the bet.
14:04
You know, uh, Gil, if you remember yesterday, I just wanted, I wanted American soccer fans to get, uh, just make sure our, our, our expectations didn't get way out of whack like they usually do.
14:14
A- and, you know, I, it, it, it wasn't great, it wasn't great with the red card yesterday, but I think some expectations should be reset a- and proper going forward, uh, i- in this tournament.
14:25
He adds, Dan Piccirillo does, "I was just, uh, I was calling FIFA some very unflattering names in my basement," he said. Yeah.
14:31
Uh, Shrek McPhee, "It was an awful tackle, but completely accidental, uh, as Flo wasn't even looking. The issue is now yellow card being given and upgraded to red via VAR. Straight red from VAR is a disgrace.
14:41
Yes, everyone knows Messi didn't get a card. Flo ain't Messi, LOL." Mm-hmm. Anthony Difilippis, "My next trip to Vegas, if I don't get to have a beer and watch some football with Kelly, did I even have a good trip?"
14:52
Good question. Football or foot- Trip Tepper-... or football? Which football? Uh, I think he means American- Okay... 'cause I'm, well, I don't know, maybe he doesn't. Maybe he means a ga- a Norway match in the World Cup.
15:01
I don't know. Uh, uh, Gil, I would think if these guys could see our text messages during these matches, they would be very entertained by our soccer breakdowns.
15:08
[laughs] Trip Tepper, "A numbers game investigation has revealed that we finally identified Super Jerk. He was the ref in the USA-Bosnia match."
15:15
And Ryan Hyatt, "Excellent job on a numbers game this morning by Gil and Kelly detailing some of the obstacles soccer faces with casual American fans. Well done. Hope folks can get the audio here in a bit."
15:26
Well, they will on the, uh, VSiN app for sure. Uh, Dallin Cuff is kind enough not only to join us whenever he joins us, but we just learned he's joining us while on vacation- Yeah...
15:35
in Charleston, South Carolina, going o- going extra time with us. We really appreciate it, Dallin. Thanks for joining us. Always, boys. Kelly, bro, can we dare to dream for a little bit? Can you not, like- [laughs]...
15:47
that, that was being Debbie Downer, man. Like, let us dream. Let us feel it for a minute here. [laughs] I just, Dallin, I can't handle the depression when it sets in, you know? I, everybody gets so depressed. Oh.
15:57
You know? And it's just, just g- let's just manage, let's just manage expectations. But of course, of course I'm rooting for USA, Dallin, okay? Let's go. Let's go. Okay. Okay. All right, good. But- Good. Thank you.
16:08
Well, well, let's start there. So the USA on the way to the round of 16 to play Belgium, everybody's saying Belgium, very beatable for us, if I may use the word us.
16:18
Do you think that is the case, Dallin, and do you think that's where the magic carpet ride ends, though? Boys, there's about 340 million of us that can say us, right? When they got the USA, anybody that's here- Right...
16:28
let's go. We're on, you're on board. That's us. Um, yes, they can beat Belgium. Um, I, remember, um, bear in mind, these two teams did play back in March in a pretty dead Atlanta [laughs] Mercedes-Benz stadium.
16:39
Very different environment now. A different group of guys. This team was not the same. Uh, the team we saw first kicking off here against Paraguay, we had never seen before.
16:47
We've now seen this team and this exact same lineup who we ran out last night play at a very, very high level. Conversely, Belgium right now is laboring through matches.
16:56
They were fortunate, to say the least, that Senegal made some just massive mistakes to, to give up the lead and then to lose it at the, at the death there on a really, on a tough call.
17:04
But, um, yes, this team is, this team is beatable. Um, we saw this US team play Senegal a couple weeks ago.
17:10
It was one of our, uh, second to last warm-up matches where Ricardo Pepi did start up top, which likely he will start up top in Flo Gall- Balogun's, uh, place if they maintain the same, uh, shape and same system, which I think you should.
17:22
And Pepi really combined well in that game. Him and Pulisic in particular were great on one of the goals they scored early in that match. Like, he, he's, he's a different player than Flo.
17:29
Flo has showed that he's a pretty elite scorer, and we talked about it before, uh, the tournament kicked off.
17:33
My, one of my favorite plays in the future was Balogun to be the leading scorer for the US team because we'd seen what he'd done at Monaco in the last couple years.
17:40
He played at Arsenal, couldn't quite become a Arsenal guy a couple years ago, still was young, but he was having a great tournament, and now he will not be playing in the next match, uh, unjustly so.
17:49
I'm sure we'll get to that. But this team is capable of beating Belgium. My brother said last night they're gonna be really interesting to be a home dog.
17:55
I said, "I don't think they're gonna be a home dog," lo and behold, they are, they are not. I mean, whether it's by two advanced, they are the, the favorite slightly or two on the three-way market.
18:02
I think that's partially because the home field advantage they will ha- will have. Seattle, remember, we, I was there in that Australia game, guys. That place is insane, that environment.
18:12
The players had said that before, and people that had seen soccer matches all over the world said that might have been one of the best environments they'd ever seen. So that is, that's a factor.
18:18
And the fact that Belgium's just not, has not played that well. So I think we've looked better. We are at home. We are confident. Graham without a striker.
18:24
This is a very winnable game, and the, and the country should expect to see their team win, and if they don't, that's heartbreaking.
18:29
But it's not we're gonna roll out there and hope we win like we played Belgium in 2014, we hoped to hang in that game. It took Tim Howard 14 saves. This is not that scenario.
18:39
Well, we said before the tournament, or Paul Carr more specifically on this show said, "Getting to the round of 16 should be viewed as par." Mm-hmm. Now he views it as getting on the green on a par five in two.
18:48
That's where we are right now, but this has been adjusted in the betting market to reach the quarters. Now we are a slight favorite, minus 120, so, uh, we look forward to that match.
18:56
Let, let's just get to what you alluded to right there, Dallin. So I think, 'cause I think you tipped your hand there.
19:02
Unjust red card, and then Belgium-Senegal, correct call to, uh, elicit the penalty kick at the end there? Let's go with the red card first. That's an egregious red.
19:13
By the laws of the game and how it's defined, there are words like brutality, serious foul play, attempt to injure, violent conduct. None of that was there. In, in all honesty, the challenge came from Flo's back.
19:23
Like, he can't even see what's happening there, and as he's trying to fight, yes, the defender gets around him, his leg, he's off-balance. His foot has to come down somewhere, okay?
19:31
He's off-balance, the guy's coming from behind him. He doesn't even see him, and then he gets red-carded for it. This is where VAR is flawed.
19:38
If you see it in slow-mo and you break it down, you create something out of nothing. That is, if anybody's played the game, that was a kind of an inoculus, innocuous challenge in the fact that he even tried to do it.
19:47
If you wanna give him a yellow for it, okay, I'll give you that. A straight red, and I think one of your tweet, your tweets said, I mean, it's ludicrous.
19:54
It was an absurd final call, and when you look at not just the Messi play, okay? I know it's the easiest one to draw the comparison and FIFA fixes things for Messi.
20:02
He made a challenge, and when I watched that game, well, I watched that live, I go, "Ooh, that's not good." And I couldn't believe he didn't even get a yellow. I thought he should.
20:07
I mean, I thought they were gonna review it. They didn't do anything. And, uh, you could say it's 'cause Messi, but he, the difference is, guys, is he was running to make a challenge, and a late one at that.
20:15
He put his heel up and right down the guy's calf to foot. Similar to Balogun, but his was intending to make a tackle.
20:22
There are other still shots you can see Pulisic in that first game against Paraguay took a tackle very similar. Again, an intention to make that tackle.
20:29
We saw one in the Australia game against us, the intention to make that tackle. You're not necessarily supposed to judge intent, but when you can't even see the guy, that has to factor into how you assess the play.
20:39
I think it was just a joke.
20:40
And as soon as they walk over to that VAR, and this will go to the port, Belgium-Senegal thing, we've seen it one time in this tournament where a ref walked over, the VAR recommended it, he walked back and said, "No, I am sticking by my decision."
20:52
They still have the power to do this. Yeah. In some countries around the world, particularly Germany, Germany, they will, their refs will say, "No, I disagree." In England, it's almost a fait accompli.
21:00
If they walk over there, it's whatever the VAR said, and it's crazy to me. You still have the ability to interpret it. It's somebody's interpretation against yours, and you are the center official.
21:08
In the Belgium-Senegal game, if that's played live and they don't review it, I got no problem with it.
21:14
Soon as they go to review it, though, and soon as they start, you start to watch it in slow-mo, you then will make the argument.
21:18
If that player does not make that challenge that moment, is he taking away an opportunity for somebody to get the ball on the, foot on the ball and score a goal? Okay, you could say that's the case.
21:28
It was very, very little contact, but if you take that player out, he probably gets a shot and maybe he scores. So sh- should there be a penalty given? You can make that argument.
21:35
I have no problem if they do not review it and they just keep on playing. But soon as they go to review and soon as that referee walks over there, you know the outcome, you know what it's gonna be.
21:44
We were hard done yesterday. I think Senegal was hard done, but I understand the process.
21:48
It's just, it, it, the red card piece of it is, is, is damning because that obviously takes him out of the next match and 30 minutes of that game. The penalty for what he was doing does not fit the crime.
21:58
You could argue the same thing for Senegal, but once they walk over to that monitor, it seems to be a done deal. Well said. Thanks for putting this, uh, putting that in a context for us.
22:09
Um, I was saying earlier the, uh, the, the Belgium-Senegal one, it goes, the American sports fan's mind, it goes from, like, a 10% chance of, of scoring a goal to an 85% chance, right? And that's what we- Mm-hmm...
22:20
have trouble with, I think, uh, in this country. Tripleheader today, Dallin. We have, uh, about 90 seconds. Spain-Austria, Portugal-Croatia, Switzerland-Algeria. What are your thoughts or bets on all three?
22:32
Yeah, I like Croatia to advance, guys. I think they're, I think the, the value on Portugal, we haven't seen it. And I've talked to you guys about Portugal.
22:37
I think they're misusing, I think Roberto Martinez is doing his team a disservice by the way they're playing Ronaldo, how they are playing. They look disjointed. Yes, Uzbekistan, you've scored five goals. I do not care.
22:45
Croatia has the same motor and engine of guys in Luka Modric and others, Perisic, that have been on that 2018 World Cup final team. They do not quit. They do not give up. Uh, I like them to advance.
22:55
If you wanna go a little bit more light, I mean, that's around plus 230. I think double the chance is very good, too.
23:00
Tie or draw on 90, I think I could easily see this thing going extra time, and them trying to outlast Portugal, and if they get that draw on 90, you get paid out. That's around even money. I like that.
23:09
I, I think in the Austria-Spain game, I think you're gonna see an Austria team play kind of like they did against Argentina. They are gonna make this thing compact, tough. They are, they are organized defensively.
23:18
Um, they went up and down with Algeria. That's not how they're gonna play in this game, kind of 'cause they had to, or once they went down, they felt they had to.
23:24
I think you're gonna see a situation where they're gonna hunker down a little bit. I like the under in that, um, although the, the money is, the, uh, the, uh, money is on the over. I like the under in that match.
23:32
I think Spain has struggled to show us breaking down a team that's gonna be very defensively, um, solid and kind of sit behind the ball.
23:39
I think that's what you see in the Austria match, so those are my, my couple plays for the day. I appreciate it, and, uh, steering clear of the Switzerland-Algeria match at night. Dallin, enjoy Charleston, man.
23:49
Thank you so much for joining us. If we had known we were on vacation, we wouldn't have bothered you. Thank you. Nah. Well, I could always say, "No, I wanna talk to you guys. I'll see you next week."
23:58
[laughs] I appreciate it. Love it, Dallin. We'll talk to you next week then, wherever Dallin might be. Thank you. Dallin Cuff, by the way, from Turner Sports.
24:03
You can follow him on Twitter at Dallin, D-A-L-L-I-N C-U-F-F, Dallin Cuff, um, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Jaylen Brown in depth next on a Numbers Game right here at VSiN, the sports betting network.
24:15
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25:10
Head to vsin.com/subscribe now to lock in two years of VSiN Pro for just $299. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. All right, a little tennis update. We're up a set in the $5 dog Anna Blinkova, Marta Kostyuk match. Up a set.
25:28
Let's go. Nice. Um, again, our future on Iga got through to round three. Men's side, uh, have a chance to serve for the match with Lorenzo Sonego moments from now.
25:38
Zachary Svajda up a break in the fourth set trying to force a fifth set, so, so far so good. Of course, three matches. Oh, by the way, one other match has begun. Uh, the Arthur Fils, Matteo Berrettini match has begun.
25:52
They're on serve early in the, uh, first set. Still to come, Kamila Rakumova on the women's side, and, um, what was the remaining one on the, uh- Grigor. Grigor. Thank you, Kelly Grigor Grigor.
26:04
Uh, we get tweets feeding the book. Ray @wreakinghavok, "The ref on the field gave nothing. Egregious error. The ref had an agenda."
26:11
Uh, Peter Watry, "Respect to all Americans who are showing interest and passion for our sport, world football. Balogun was born in the US accidentally," quote, unquote, he says- [laughs]...
26:20
"when his pregnant mother was visiting New York City from London. They will now have to win with American players and they can do it." Uh, he's American. Come on.
26:27
Uh, an Eagle Marine, "Gil, I am with you 100% on the soccer calls. Crimes just do not fit those punishments.
26:35
Um, as an SEC alum, hard to cast stones at soccer though when we have somehow allowed targeting to do what it has done to college football. We have kids missing bowl games over what used to be great hits."
26:46
Yeah, college football definitely has changed with that. And then as a nice segue into our discussion about Jaylen Brown, Kelly, this is from, uh, Nick, Real Knicks.
26:54
"Breaking news," he says, "Sixers traded Paul George for Jaylen Brown. As a Sixers fan, I needed to read this headline 100 times to make it sink in. Still don't believe it.
27:02
Gansey's already Exec of the Year, but how is Boston 4-1 to win the East and Philly 8-1?" For those who missed it, we should probably spell out the trade. Mm.
27:11
Um, as, you know, on the heels of Giannis going to the Heat, uh, LaMelo Ball going to the T-Wolves, now it's Jaylen Brown traded to the Sixers.
27:19
Sixers sending Paul George, the at this point peripatetic Paul George, two first-round picks, 2028, 2031, two second-round picks, 2028, 2030 to Boston to complete the deal.
27:31
Um, Brown leaves Boston as a five-time All-Star as well as the 2024 Eastern Conference Finals and NBA Finals MVP, helping Boston win its 18th championship.
27:41
Brown is gonna turn 30 in October, coming off a career season where he finished sixth in MVP voting, was a second team All-NBA selection while leading the Celtics to a 56-win season.
27:51
Remember, much of that without j- uh, Jayson, uh, Tatum. He averaged 28.7 points a game, 6.9 rebounds, 5.1 assists per game, all matching or exceeding his prior career highs.
28:04
Uh, Kelly earlier on the show made the, uh, the outlandish remark that his father invented the question mark. [laughs] No, that, that, that, uh, this trade was as surprising as the Luka trade.
28:14
I, I think you, I, I don't agree with that. I mean, I think the Luka trade was just- I didn't go that far. I said almost. I said almost. Oh, almost. Okay, my bad. I misquoted you.
28:22
Uh, it, it's, the, the Luka thing was like, yeah, I don't, I, people thought I was j- I was falling for a prank when I sent him the tweet, right? Yeah. Drew was like, "Ah, they got Gil," right?
28:32
This one you knew was coming after the, uh, the attempts to trade him in, in the Giannis deal. Um, it's pretty interesting to me.
28:39
I'll let you chime in on that specific question on Twitter about, "Hey, look, Boston's 4-1 and Philly's 8-1."
28:45
Um, but I, uh, I like a lot of the post-trade commentary here, which sort of, uh, it makes me feel better about how I feel about Jaylen Brown, which is basketball's a funny sport, right?
28:55
Again, what's the example I always use? You can't put Wilt, Magic, Bird, MJ, and Oscar Robertson on the same team and think you're gonna score 300 points. It just doesn't work, right?
29:06
There's an optimal efficiency to five guys on the court. And I don't know how much better Jaylen Brown makes the people around him. Mm-hmm.
29:15
Um, so I'm not, like, I'm not, like, super convinced this is an amazing trade for the Sixers. I will, I will grant you this though, Kelly.
29:23
I was surprised that of all the teams they went with, the Celtics were so okay with going with this- Yeah... obviously the best deal they got, that they traded him to a, you know, a, a historical conference rival. Yeah.
29:38
Pretty amazing. I, but it's part, it's part of the shock factor, and it, it's part of, uh, you know, from the 76ers side.
29:44
The Paul George contract, uh, like, nobody thought they were ever gonna be able to get back off that thing. Once that was, once they brought him in and it was, oh, God, all of a sudden this is a disaster.
29:55
He gets suspended last year. Yes, he came back and played well. Uh, but d- just the opportunity to get off that contract, I thought one of the mo- more, i- it's, we, you just went through all the trade details.
30:06
Uh, Bobby Marks from ESPN I thought, uh, made a great note about this.
30:10
For the 76ers just to get off of the Paul George contract would've cost them a first-round pick, uh, al- anyways, just to get, uh, just to get him off of the team.
30:20
So really what they gave up for Jaylen Brown, take one more first-round pick away, because anybody that they were gonna send Paul George to, they were gonna have to include a first-round pick just for him.
30:30
So it's even really less than that. Um, it's, uh, it's wild, Gil. It's wi... A- and you sa- you said it, and we were texting about this immediately.
30:39
Yeah, for it to be the Sixers, like, maybe this doesn't, this stuff doesn't matter. We don't think about it or talk about it as much as we did 30 years ago, 20 years ago, right?
30:48
But still, it's an Eastern Conference rival that you have-... have to think is going to be around a major market Eastern Conference rival, that you have to think is gonna be around.
30:58
Which is why I said in that first segment, like, this is the best they could do. This is cl- pretty obvious- Yeah. Clearly... the best they could do.
31:05
Because you would, you would love to have shipped him out west and not had to worry about this.
31:09
And it, it does, it br- it immediately brought up a lot of questions for me of, man, where are, where were all these other teams at if this is all that was being asked for?
31:19
So that, that's why I said I think this is really how not just Boston is view, w- is, was viewing Jaylen Brown by the end of it.
31:27
And yes, yes, I think there is a lot that was going on behind the scenes that we're not gonna know about for the, for a very long time, uh, with relationships in that building.
31:38
But not only how just J- J- uh, Jaylen Brown was viewed by the Celtics, but really how he was viewed by the re- uh, by the majority of the rest of the NBA. Yeah.
31:47
It's, you know, uh, and again, it's, Ben Fox, our buddy, um, tweeted this out. If you're wondering what were the Sixers in the offshore, you know, not offshore, but prediction markets.
32:00
Uh, I don't know if any offshores had this up, but in prediction markets, what were the Sixers?
32:03
The Sixers were 100 to one, uh, on the DraftKings sports prediction market anyway, to be Jaylen Brown's next team at the time of the trade. The longest odds for any team listed. Incredible.
32:16
That's how sort of surprising this was. Now remember, Detroit and Cleveland, also Eastern Conference playoff, you know, perennial teams at this point, we can say about those two- Mm-hmm... I guess.
32:27
Um, they were much shorter odds.
32:29
I, for some reason, Kelly, and this ha- this has nothing to do with anything but, like, abstract historical rivalries in the NBA, I would not have been nearly as surprised if he had gone to Detroit or Cleveland.
32:39
I don't know what those teams would've been able to ship. Oh, I agree. Uh, yeah. But, but what you said is correct, and I think that, that this was clearly the best offer they got.
32:47
And what it really does, I think, indicate is that if you are a really, really good NBA player, maybe even a great NBA player, but you are not a superstar elite NBA player, right?
33:00
In other words, you're, you're below the, you know, the Jokic line. The, the- Sure, you're not a first team All-Teamer... Jokic- Yeah, yeah, yeah... Wembanyama, right. You're below that group.
33:13
These teams don't like it if your salary isn't commensurate with that, right? You, you're- If you're getting paid. Yeah. The, then it, it doesn't work. And so this will be interesting.
33:23
I mean, let's, let's get to the point though of the question, which is Boston four to one to win the East. First of all, the Knicks are the short shot at plus 320. Yeah.
33:30
Boston's $4 plus 425, and then it's the Sixers now at plus 750. If you're wondering where Giannis and the Heat fa- fall, they fall sixth.
33:38
Put the Pistons in there, put Kawhi's Raptors in there, and then Giannis and the Heat. Do you agree with that pecking order?
33:44
[lips smack] Um, no I do not, but I think we're still in a wait and see w- uh, there's a long off season to go.
33:52
I, I do think there is a possibility, uh, that the Cel- the Celtics are not done, that this is, you know, they did get two first round picks in return.
34:00
Is this, is, was this always part of the plan to turn this into something more? Uh, Miami Heat, right? We expect them to keep adding along the way. Are the Pacers gonna do anything or the Cavs?
34:11
You know, where does LeBron James ad- uh, end up? For right now, I guess, Gil, because the books are betting that the Celtics are going to do something more or they're gonna be able to recreate this in the aggregate.
34:24
And the one that you are gonna hear a lot about, this is another one that's kinda, it's kinda frustrating me about this move.
34:29
One you've heard, I- I- I, uh, b- uh, Brian Windhorst brought it up on the Hoop Collective about things coming out of the Celtics front office.
34:37
And if you do lo- look at some of the advanced stats from last season, uh, i- is that simply Derrick White had a better season, was more important to Celtics winning than Jaylen Brown.
34:48
So I don't know, maybe the odds makers believe in that, and that is b- why the Celtics are the shortest. Yeah. If, again, this is, you know, again, for the analytics crowd.
34:57
If you look at things like plus minus, Jaylen Brown doesn't leap off the page- He does not... in plus minus. Nope.
35:03
Is a, uh, is a strange little stat that can have other out, out, uh, you know, outside factors, who you're on the court with, that kind of thing. But that's an interesting one that people lean on as well.
35:12
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36:15
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on A Numbers Game live from Circle Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas.
36:30
In the case of Kelly Midland, in my case, live from San Francisco, uh, this week, next week. Who knows? Maybe a third week, Kelly. I don't know. We'll see. We'll find out. We'll see.
36:41
[laughs] Um, so far, uh, so far it's holding up very nicely, I sh- I might say. It has. Um, so I wanna compliment the team.
36:47
I was complimenting the engineering team here yesterday about it, and I immediately cut my- myself off halfway because I said, "Now I've d- of course I've just jinxed things, and I'm gonna be doing three- Yes...
36:56
hours by myself the rest of the week." Yeah. That's right. I probably, I probably shouldn't have said anything out loud. Um, few tweets here. Giuseppe Bedda, Giuseppe Bedda.
37:04
He says, uh, "Paul George is a pair of what now? I'm always learning something new on ANG." Did, did I say something? Did you say something about Paul George? I don't know I don't know. [laughs] Uh, P-A-W.
37:14
I mean, if we did- Maybe s- We might have- That's great... and it probably wasn't great, yeah. [laughs] He is a pair of, uh, P-A-W.
37:21
Uh, Sixers getting payback for that trade to acquire, uh, Markelle Fultz, and the Celtics snag Tatum.
37:26
Yeah, that was Danny Ainge's great stroke back in the day, where the Celtics were like, "Ah, we don't need this number one pick." Yep. Danny Ainge. Danny Ainge knowing exactly what he wanted all, all along.
37:35
And Leisure Suit Kobe, "Did you guys hear what Stephen A said about white players on the Lakers? Takes a lot to shock and or offend me these days, but it's absolutely revolting.
37:44
Um, the hypocrisy and double standard is unacceptable. Boycott Stephen A," he says. Stephen A talking about, I guess, uh, Luka, Austin Reaves, and Walker Kessler now, I guess, uh- Uh, yeah, yep... uh, with the Lakers.
37:55
Um, yeah. The big three on the Lakers who are, uh, all white guys. The big three. Yeah. Walker Kessler, by the way, who, uh, did get, uh, moved yesterday for more than Jaylen Brown.
38:04
That's right, for more than Jaylen Brown, um, because his salary is commensurate with the level. Um, I wasn't as offended as you were, Scotty. I understand where you're coming from.
38:15
Uh, you are calling for ESPN to fire him. I promise you they will not. Let's just leave it at that. Mm-hmm. Um, this is, uh, this is always interesting to check back in on. We were doing this all throughout June.
38:27
Uh, here we are now in early July. Who is going to be the week one starting quarterback for various NFL teams?
38:33
Now, most of these, I think, our initial reactions were all good on, and I think the betting market is coming our way on all of these.
38:41
The first one up here, though, I think, Kelly, is the most interesting one to discuss, which is the Arizona Cardinals, who it has been assumed, right, you know what they say about assuming, it has been assumed that Jacoby Brissett, after playing, you know, better than Kyler Murray did last year as the Arizona Cardinals, uh, starting quarterback.
39:00
Yeah, you had career years maybe from Trey McBride, um- Mm-hmm... for one, and, uh, and, uh, what's my, my man, the whiteout, whiteout's name? Michael, uh, oh, what's my boy, whiteout's name? So good.
39:12
Anyway, Michael Wilson, I believe, right? Yeah.
39:14
Um, Jacoby Brissett was really good last year, but he's in a contract dispute with the Cardinals, and essentially the positions very sort of succinctly are Jacoby Brissett's like, "Look,
39:24
I'm the starting quarterback of this team. You saw me be the starting quarterback of the team this past year. I would like to be paid starting quarterback guaranteed money." That's his position.
39:35
That's his camp's position. Very reasonable. The Arizona Cardinals [laughs]
39:41
i- or, or look at that or have responded to that basically by their actions by saying, "Oh, that's beautiful, and yeah, you were a starting quarterback, but, um, yeah, I don't know."
39:51
And, uh, Gardner Minshew, who's your backup- Oh... he's actually got more guaranteed money than you have. And so the two sides have not met yet. And so we still don't know when Jacoby Brissett is going to show up
40:06
for Arizona. Right. Obviously July 2nd, there's nothing to show up for yet, but we don't know if he's gonna be there at the beginning of training camp. We have no idea about this.
40:15
And so starting quarterback week number one, um, and you can see the movement on this hasn't really been that dramatic. Is this the time to get in on Gardner Minshew at plus 420 just in case?
40:31
Ah, man, I don't think so. I, I think I would, I think I would take my normal kinda, uh, NBA injury r- uh, report wait and see approach on this, [laughs] Kel.
40:41
If this market's still up, if you think it really gets bad between Brissett a- and Cardinals, and there's really the possibility he's not gonna be there, then I would run and make that bet then.
40:51
Honest- honestly, I'd be looking at this the same way the other way. If I, I hear Br- everything gets worked out with Brissett just fine, I think minus 350 is a cheap price.
40:59
I think they're, they would be going with him for sure. Yeah. I mean, uh, let's put it this way.
41:05
If we had done this Arizona Cardinals one third or fourth in the list, I think the case for Gardner Minshew might be that much more sound because you would've seen on the other teams, and we'll show these right now, that those are pretty, to me, those are pretty fait accompli because we kinda know, I believe, who's gonna be the starters barring injuries on those teams.
41:24
This is the one, though, where I'm just like, "Eh." It's the one long shot you can justify. 'Cause I think what you're saying is right, right?
41:30
If they get it worked out, Jacoby Brissett is your starting quarterback day one. But you know what? They say Gardner Minshew and everything he's done with the Cardinals so far looks great. Everything.
41:40
He, he learns quick. He knows everything. He's ready to go. So I don't know. If there is one long shot, I think that's it. Um, Atlanta Falcons, we talked about this when Tua was just a short favorite.
41:52
Now he is a minus 250 favorite. You see back in May he was minus 125. I think that's when you and I first talked about this. Yeah. And my comment at the time was Michael Penix Jr. had major knee surgery.
42:02
They obviously acquired Tua for a reason. Uh, there is no rush to bring the kid back from major knee surgery. Clearly he should be the favorite. That number's now minus 250. I still think it's a good bet. Yeah, I do too.
42:17
Um, I do too. I think this one is, man, I, a, a little bit more of a wait and see still, just a wait and s- I, I don't know.
42:26
But the problem is once camp's, once camp opens up and these guys start going and you're gonna see a full rep, full rep splits and everything, this number's gonna go move like crazy. So yeah, I think I'm with you.
42:35
I think I'm with you. I, yeah, minus 125, minus 180 of course would be better, uh, but right now I, I think it's gonna be Tua. Um, and, and you know, you brought it up.
42:44
I don't even know if it was the last time we talked about this market, but it w- last time we talked about the Falcons at least, of just it being e- not only if he, if he's the younger guy you believe in long term, why rush him back?
42:56
Yes. Yes. But also, also the able to turn back, right? It's easier to turn back, uh, to, to go off of Tua and turn to Michael Penix Jr. and sell that to your fans than the other way around.
43:08
Well, it also is a confidence killer for Penix- Yeah... if you do it the other way around.
43:12
Like if he starts, then he doesn't play well and you bench him for Tua, that has a different psychological effect if you do it the opposite, I think. And it does for the fans too. That's my point, right? Yeah.
43:22
Like, the fans look at it too- Yeah... like, "Well, what's the deal with our quarterback longterm?"
43:26
Cleveland Browns, we recommended Deshaun, Deshaun Watson when he was around where Tua was to start with the Falcons, minus 136 in the case of Watson. That has risen to minus 196. I still think that that's the play here.
43:40
Deshaun Watson, they paid him $253 million guaranteed. I know he has, uh, taken a, uh... How can I put this? Not your average way to get to this point in his career. I'll leave it at that. Yeah.
43:55
But you paid him so much money, you kinda have an obligation as a franchise to see it through at this point. Um, Shedeur's not going anywhere, so I think Deshaun Watson is your week one starter.
44:06
And minus 196, not as good as minus 136, but I'm pretty confident he's your week one starter. All right.
44:11
For the ones that we've gone through so far, for, to make a bet today, Gil, this, this one would be the most bettable to me. Deshaun Watson. Yeah. Play the 196. I- everything you just said, right?
44:23
A- a- and just like the Atlanta situation, uh, look, Shedeur, Shedeur, I, I think, I think you, I don't know if proved doubters wrong is the right w- right term, uh, from last year, but you played better than a lot of people were expecting out of you last season.
44:36
So I think Cleveland, like you said, kinda have a little f- financial obligation to, to see if Deshaun Watson can do anything for them. But you could alwa- you can turn back to Shedeur after that.
44:46
I think that is something you can do. So yeah, i- if I make, if I had to make a bet on any of these today, it would be Watson.
44:54
Uh, these one's not quite as fun, 'cause I think these are, uh, properly priced and these are prohibitive. Kirk Cousins, minus 520 to be the starting quarterback week one for the Las Vegas Raiders.
45:05
Remember also, this is the first snap. So if they ran theoretically some wildcat formation, remember the old- Yeah...
45:12
Ronnie Brown play that started a season for the Dolphins, and then Cousins came in on the second snap, that ain't cashin' for you, right? This is, this is not only the week one starting quarterback.
45:22
Really, it's the week one first snap from scrimmage quarterback. Cousins is minus 520. Fernando Mendoza, first pick in the draft, plus 350. Again, you brought in Cousins for a reason. Mendoza will learn under him.
45:34
There's a, there's a good spot on the schedule where it's more, uh, sort of off the, uh, really natural for Mendoza to start. He doesn't have to start from day one, and I don't think he will. Yeah.
45:45
I, this is l- like you said, this was always, this is the plan, right? And you're basically, you've basically laid out the plan once you brought in Kirk Cousins. Um, now, would I...
45:56
I, it, minus 520 is obviously a big n- big number anyways, but I wouldn't, I wouldn't bet this though right now, Gil, 'cause, eh, yes, I think that's the plan. Can plans change if Mendoza- Sure...
46:07
absolutely lights it up in, in the camp and preseason? [laughs] Yeah. Well, why not get the kid out there? So i, I mean, y- the season's gonna be tough to have much success anyways being in that division.
46:17
Might as well start getting the guy reps. So I don't, that's one I wouldn't bet, but I, uh, yes, I think the plan is g- uh, we're gonna be going with, uh, Kirk first.
46:26
And this last one might be surprising to some, but not really to us. Kyler Murray's the biggest favorite of all of them- Yeah...
46:32
to start for the Minnesota Vikings, minus 770, which is [laughs] actually down from minus 1,000. Um, yeah, I don't know where they stand on JJ McCarthy, man, but Kyler Murray's starting day one. Yeah, I think so too.
46:46
I think this did come down a little bit 'cause they were, I think they were splitting reps a little bit more in mini camps, uh, that they had, so I'm guessing that's why this number came down, but I still think it's Kyler all the way.
46:56
Yeah. Zach Cohen joins us. We'll get his, uh, remaining Wimbledon plays for the day, and he'll chime in on Jaylen Brown and more in the NBA. It's a numbers game right here at VSAN, VSi Sportsbook-
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