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Jul 2, 2026
A Numbers Game | July 2, 2026 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | July 2, 2026 | Hour 2
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47:04
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:10
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, Esports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander in San Francisco this week.
0:21
Kelly Bentley back at the, uh, mothership there at, uh, Circa Resort Casino, the VSiN studios high atop the world's largest sportsbook. You doing okay, Kelly? Lonely still? Holding it down. Yeah, I'm holding it down.
0:33
I was just checking out the Circa crowd. Not as busy today 'cause we've got late starting soccer games. It's been, uh, pretty impressive here, uh, so far through the World Cup.
0:42
Soon you will be joined by the great Bill Krackenberger, and your loneliness will dissipate in a heartbeat. I can't wait. See how it goes. I can't wait. Yeah, man. Should be fun.
0:52
Um, Zach Cohen standing by to give us some tennis plays and, uh, also talk NBA with us. Real quick, we get tweets, beauty of the book. Giuseppe Bennett chimed back in.
1:01
He said, "Peripatetic, not gonna lie, English was never my strongest subject." Definitely had to look that one up.
1:05
[laughs] Uh, Brian M., "Walker Kessler got moved for more because he has two hands that can, that can be used for more than pointing fingers." Oh, is that a shot at Jaylen Brown about pointing fingers?
1:17
Uh, John Balducci, "Maybe almost the same way pro players don't value rings as much as we think they should, younger GMs now don't care about historical rivalries or conference foes with trades.
1:28
Imagine the look on Charles Oakley's face if Horace Grant got traded to the Knicks." Uh, T-Pars too, "Sonigo gets home to start the day off on a winning note. Thank you, Gil. Let's cash the rest." Let's do it.
1:39
Long way to go here. Uh, Chance Copperpot, "All this hullabaloo about Stephen A. and his Lakers comments, maybe he just really likes that one movie with Wesley Snipes, Woody Harrelson, and Rosie Perez."
1:48
Can Kelly name that movie? White Men Can't Jump. I've only seen that about nine million times. Great movie. [laughs] Great gambling movie. Are you kidding me? That's one of those underrated gambling movies.
1:59
Oh, that's interesting. Okay, I'll have to rewatch. Yeah. Uh, Chris Hit- It's all about gambling... Chris Hitchcock. Chris Hitchcock, "Can you ask Zach about the LeBron to Denver rumors?
2:08
The odds went from 70 to one to 25 to one to five to one. Substantial movement." We will get to Zach here momentarily.
2:15
Uh, Jim Campbell, "I think the better way to bet Fernando Mendoza is to bet under on his passing yards. I got under 2,499 and a half at minus 110.
2:24
Assuming Cousins starts six games, Mendoza would have to average 228 plus yards per game over the 11 remaining contests." That's a creative way to do it, Jim. Mm-hmm.
2:33
Uh, and then Chris Heath, "So hard to cash tickets and accounts in Reno. I rolled up to a place that I thought was a William Hill, and now it's a Boomers.
2:39
I can't stand how Caesars and William Hill are the same company, but they're actually not." It's a whole thing, man. Yeah. It's a whole thing. Uh, Zach Cohen, ladies and gentlemen, uh, fighting a, uh, stomach bug.
2:50
Dallin was in Charleston on vacation. He came on the show. Zach Cohen toughed through it to come on the show today as well.
2:56
You can follow him on Twitter at BettingOnX, part of the glue that holds this whole operation together. What up, Zach? How you doing, man? You feeling okay? Not... Yeah, doing a little bit better.
3:05
My wife gave me this, this thing called Zofran, which made my nausea go away completely, at least temporarily, so that's good. She told me to take it last night. I declined like an idiot, ended up throwing up all night.
3:15
[laughs] He laughed at that. I declined like an idiot.
3:19
[laughs] Um, so, so that we don't miss, I'm not sure when your match starts, so that, so that we don't miss it, what is your remaining match today that you're playing?
3:28
Uh, I have Victoria Golubovic, uh, uh, to beat Jasmine Paolini. That is really just a fade on Paolini. Paolini has been- Yeah... really, really lousy this season and has not won back-to-back matches since back in March.
3:42
So, like, we just have not seen her put together multiple days in a row o- of good tennis, and she's playing against, you know, a solid grass court player, somebody that has, you know, a winning record on this surface and about 50 matches in her career.
3:53
And there's not a lot of grass court tennis played over the course of every year, so winning that much i- is actually pretty impressive.
4:00
So if you see a player with like 20-plus career grass court wins, that's actually a better number than you would think. So I think Paolini's a good player to fade today.
4:09
I also have Jakob Fernely right now that started not going very well, and I have, uh, Anna Blinkova, which started and is going well. So hopefully the, uh, the rest of the day goes pretty well.
4:18
But yeah, great start to the tournament so far. I am on Anna Blinkova with you. Uh, she just, uh, had a break point to try to break back in the second set. Didn't work out.
4:27
Um, but yeah, that is a, this is one of these things, again, for those who don't bet tennis, and Zach and I were talking a little bit about this, um, before this segment, which is I don't really know what Zach's playing.
4:37
Zach doesn't necessarily know what I'm playing.
4:40
And so we land on the same player, and both of us are just like, "A $5 dog on Blinkova against a player who's not really good on grass despite her name, quote, unquote, 'recognition'"?
4:52
Um, it's just, it's one of these moments where you have to, you have to be able to overcome-- Like, 'cause a lot of people who, if you don't know a sport and you say, "Oh, a $5 dog, uh, there must be a reason why she's a $5 dog."
5:04
The beauty of betting tennis is you have your numbers. You, you have some justification. You watch so much tennis, it's like, "This is just completely out of whack. You gotta play this."
5:13
Uh, you do have a, uh, parlay for us tomorrow, right? Yes. So there are two matches tomorrow that I wanted to find a way to play in some capacity.
5:21
Couldn't really find the way to do it straight, so taking Barbora Krejcikova to beat Partu- uh, Bartykova, her fellow countrywoman, uh, money line there, and I'm taking it with Roman Safiullin plus two and a half sets against Joao Fonseca, and this is plus 106.
5:36
Krejcikova's just like a wagon on grass. I feel like we've now seen that now.
5:41
When she is healthy and she is playing well, she is really, really tough to beat, and that's, you know, was pretty much on full display yesterday as she beat Mira Andreeva, who just came off a French Open title.
5:51
Like, I just think that Krejcikova, who has won, you know, this tournament before, did it two years ago, is a really good number right now at, like, minus 200-ish against Bartykova, who I, I do think is really good but could be overwhelmed by the fact that she's playing someone older, someone kind of legendary in that country.
6:07
That could be a tough spot for her.
6:08
And Safiullin, I hope he has a little bit left in the gas, 'cause he's played some really long [chuckles] matches already, but just think he's a little more proven on grass courts than Fonseca is.
6:16
I think Fonseca is a better player and should find a way to get the job done, but Safiullin is a, a good server, a powerful player. I think he's going to get at least one on the board. Yeah.
6:27
Um, with you on the Golubic lean, I, uh, I leaned Golubic. You're playing her. I almost played her. I did not, but I leaned her way against Paolini, so I love that play, and couldn't agree with you more about Krunic.
6:39
Krunic saved the day yesterday with that big win over Andreva, was on her yesterday. She is a, uh, absolute... What, what was the phrase you used, on grass? Wagon. [laughs] Wagon. She is a wagon- Yeah... on grass.
6:51
Former champion, of course, here, uh, as well. Who looks best to you, before we move on from tennis to basketball, who looks best to you on each side in the early going here? Man, I don't know.
7:01
I think o- on the men's side, like, there are reasons to think that Sinner looks terrible, because his baseline game has looked atrocious and he has not started hitting his forehand in the court yet.
7:10
But at the same time, I'd be scared that he is through to this point having played as poorly as he has, and the serving is, like, serve bot-ish. He's just acing everyone. He is not giving anything up on his own serve.
7:23
So I think he looks great.
7:25
I think Djokovic looked really, really good against Tsitsipas yesterday, kind of the match that shows you, like, "Yeah, when there's a player across the court from me that I really respect, I'm going to level up a little bit."
7:34
So that kind of felt like the first announcement that maybe Djokovic's level is there in order to make a deep run at this tournament, which I need him to do. On the ladies' side, I don't know.
7:44
It- it's tough to really say. Like, Pegula has been the player that I've had to win this tournament, so have been watching her quite a bit.
7:51
I think it's been a little bit shaky, but was happy to see her advance last match, and I, I do just have futures all over the board, so just been watching a lot of those more than, more than anything else.
8:00
Yeah, so you have Pegula to win it all. What are the other ones?
8:04
Pegula to win it all, and then I have Navarro to win quarter three at 16 to 1, which I thought was looking really dicey against Badosa in round one, but she came back when Badosa was serving for the match, found a way to win, and now I feel like she has a really good shot because Svitolina has been eliminated.
8:20
I watched Navarro beat Giga a couple days ago, so I think that if she were to get to that match, she'd have a chance. So 16 to 1 was the number there. Feel really good about that.
8:28
And on the men's side, I ended up taking Djokovic, uh, plus 150 to win his quarter and plus 900 to win the tournament. I think the second of those two, like, it's not the strongest feeling in the world.
8:41
I just felt like the number was there when I am anticipating him being up against Sinner in that semifinal match. So I feel like that's a good number.
8:48
I think the winner of that match would advance and win the tournament. I have De Minaur to win quarter three at plus 700, and I have Taylor Fritz to win quarter four. Forget the exact number, but I- Yeah...
8:59
had Draper, too, so I lost a, I lost a unit right away. Taylor Fritz to win that quarter. I'm in California, so I don't have anywhere to bet it. It's not offshore. It's not in prediction markets that I see, anyway.
9:09
But Taylor Fritz to win that quarter to me is... 'Cause I was right there with you. Draper-Fritz, the winner of that first round match, probably wins that quarter.
9:17
And I'll just say again, collision course between Taylor Fritz and Sascha Zverev in the quarterfinals. Taylor Fritz owns Sascha Zverev- Yep... on all courts, but grass is Taylor Fritz's best, so I love that play.
9:31
Good on you for having that. Um, we'll talk NBA through into the next segment, but I just wanted to sort of start with the Jaylen Brown trade. You said you had a bit of a different viewpoint on this than most. Yeah.
9:44
So I think it's a great trade for the 76ers. Like, I, I, I can't defend the return that Boston got for Brown. I just think that the Celtics are still going to be way better than people think next year.
9:55
And I was somebody that was questioning Boston as the betting favorite in the Eastern Conference before that deal.
10:02
But now that they've settled into, like, plus 500 to win the East, 14 to 1 to win the NBA title, I actually think that they're a bet-on team after that trade.
10:10
Because you look at last season, this is, like, a really kinda caveman way of looking at it, so I'll preface that. But, uh, you know, 56 wins with Brown in, Tatum out.
10:20
This year you're gonna have Tatum in, Brown out, but you're also gonna have Paul George, and you're gonna have Mitchell Robinson. Paul George is not as good as his contract number, but he's also not terrible.
10:30
I think that people kind of forget that he had a really strong end to last season. I think the final 10 games of the regular season, 21 points, just about 6 rebounds, 3 assists, and the shooting numbers were excellent.
10:42
And then in the postseason he was fine.
10:44
Like, I just feel like this is a team that's transitioning to playing a little bit more with Payton Pritchard on the ball, and bringing in a good kinda two-way wing in George that doesn't need the ball as much is going to be fine for them as they kinda elevate Hugo Gonzalez in the, in the rotation and, you know, bring in a center in Mitchell Robinson that represents a major upgrade for them, at least when he's on the court.
11:04
Like, there are now major injury concerns with Boston. I won't ignore that. Tatum's an injury concern. Paul George is a red flag. Robinson has never been able to stay healthy.
11:13
But the roster that I'm looking at with the Celtics should be priced a little bit differently, in my opinion. Okay.
11:21
Well, let's hold that thought, because Giannis to the Heat, Kawhi to the Raptors, Jaylen Brown to the Sixers. Zach just teased a little thing about the Celtics right there.
11:31
Uh, let's get the, uh, pecking order, or let's see if Zach believes the pecking order in the Eastern Conference is correct.
11:38
Or with all of that movement, with all these star players, is the team to bet on actually not involved in any of this? That's on the other side. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:48
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14:09
Gil Alexander in San Francisco, Kelly Bidlin there at the Circa Studios, or the VSiN Studios, I should say, at Circa. Mm-hmm.
14:15
Zach Cohen kind enough to join us once again, uh, to discuss National Basketball Association trades and, uh, how he feels about futures here. You can follow Zach on Twitter at Betting on X.
14:26
By the way, Zach, are you like... I know you're not a soccer guy, but are you wound up in the Team USA in the World Cup like everybody else?
14:34
I watch Team USA 'cause I, I do support Fulham during the Premier League, and I... There are two players from- Oh...
14:39
you know, one that was formerly on Fulham in Tim Ream, and then one that's currently on Fulham in Jed Wallace Robinson, so I do support Team USA quite a bit. Uh, but yeah, it, it's been really fun.
14:48
Every single game that I've watched has been incredible. I don't know why I don't follow it, like, completely, but yeah, fascinating tournament. Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. All right.
14:56
Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. We support- [laughs]... we support Team USA because they have two players from Fulham? [laughs] Yes. Yep. That is... You caught that correctly. [laughs] Okay. All right. [laughs] Wow.
15:07
[laughs] Wow, okay. I- That's a- I like... I don't know. I, I, I've never felt that connected to Team USA or anything. I, I, I, this gives me a reason. Zach- There you go... are you an 'Merican? Yeah. Wow.
15:17
Are you an 'Merican, or are you more of a Fulham man? [laughs] So if, so if, uh, Fulham... This is my, my b- [laughs] This is super weird.
15:23
[laughs] If Fulham fought the United States in a war, would you be on Fulham's side? Is that what you're telling us? That's what he's saying, Gil. Yeah. Maybe. I don't know. That's what I'm saying. You know? Yeah.
15:33
Um, okay. It depends... back to the NBA. Who's gonna win the war? So the pecking- I'll be on the winning side. [laughs] The pecking order in the East, we were looking over earlier, Knicks, short shot.
15:42
I don't know if you know this, Zach, defending NBA champions. Let that sink in. Um, Knicks are there, and then it's the Celtics. Um, and then it's, you know, the, the Celtics are around four to one, give or take, right?
15:55
Plus 425, we showed earlier at, uh, DraftKings. Um, Sixers are all the way down at about eight to one. Uh, Giannis's Heat, sixth short shot in the Eastern Conference. Do you feel the order is correct in the East?
16:11
I don't. I, I think that the order... I think it always should've been the Knicks at the top, by the way.
16:15
Once they won the NBA championship, I don't know why they were not considered the favorites in the Eastern Conference. I understood it for a few days- Mm-hmm...
16:21
when, like, maybe Boston was going to go out and get Giannis. Once they did not get Giannis, the fact that the Celtics kinda stayed there at the top didn't make a lot of sense to me.
16:30
My order right now in terms of what I'm expecting next season is Knicks, Raptors, Celtics, and then I'd go Sixers over Heat right now. Pistons, I don't think should be four.
16:42
I feel like they've had a terrible off-season, and I feel like there might be, like, a 10-win drop coming and an early exit in the playoffs. So you said- Yeah... the Raptors second. So you, you feel the- Yes...
16:53
Kawhi trade, of all of them, is the most impactful, then? I do. I, I feel like, I feel like Brandon Ingram is a negative player. I've always been a fan of his. I think he's a great scorer. He has good size.
17:06
But defensively, he's always been a minus on the floor, and then offensively, he's always been, you know, kind of a one-note scorer that doesn't make his teammates better.
17:14
Bringing in Kawhi, one of the best two-way players in the NBA, to just, just fill that spot felt like a massive, massive upgrade, and I feel like that's a team that just played great defensively last year.
17:25
They were tied for fifth in the league in, uh, defensive EPM. I feel like they've just gotten better in adding in Leonard, and if you look at that front court, that will close games with Leonard, CMB, and Barnes.
17:38
It's gonna be really tough to score on those guys. So I feel like there's a chance that they also go out and improve their roster, but even, even as of right now, I think that they are the second-best team in the East.
17:47
Completely agree, Gil. You were saying? I completely agree with Zach. Oh, go ahead, go ahead.
17:50
'Cause I, I don't know if, I don't know if I'm gonna agree with much further down the list, but yes, Knicks one, I think you said it perfectly, Zach.
17:57
I, I didn't really understand that either, uh, wh- when the Celtics were kinda h- hovering above them, even though we knew they were kinda out on Giannis. It would be Raptors number two for me, I, as well.
18:06
I think after that is, is where it starts to get interesting. I would go, I just wr- wrote quickly, Knicks, Raptors, 76ers, Celtics, Heat. Mm. Okay.
18:17
Can I tell you why I don't think that the 76ers should be above the Celtics? Please. Th- they have no bench.
18:24
Uh, like it's, it's the five guys still, and last year they ran into a major problem against New York where they just got completely dominated in their bench minutes, and they just had to play their starters so much because they had no one they could rely on.
18:36
They do have, you know, now a month or two to try to figure this out and bring in some decent, you know, role players they can rely on in the post-season.
18:44
But as of right now, you're looking at that starting five of Maxie, Edgecomb, Brown, Wade, Embiid, and then it's like if LeBaron Philon is ready, then he's your sixth man and he's your best bench player.
18:57
After that, I don't trust a single other player on the team to play a, a minute in the post-season, not one. So I don't know what else they're going to be able to do. They have a couple of exemptions.
19:07
I know that they're trying to maybe get LeBron James. Like, that almost feels like something that needs to happen for them to be a title contender, more than like, "Oh, it'd be nice if that happened."
19:16
Like, they need a player that can either start or be, like, a heavy bench minutes player to come in and play for really cheap. And as of right now, that really looks like the only option.
19:25
Maybe, like, later in the off-season we see someone like DeRozan become available and he's enticed by that opportunity, but I, I don't see where they're getting bench minutes from right now.
19:35
This is, this is kind of the Heat's problem too, right? It's a body count issue. Not that body count, people. You know what I'm talking about. Yeah. There's, there's just not enough bodies to go around right now.
19:44
Um, so the... You just don't know how that team is going to be fully formed.
19:48
I'm curious, Zach, because when we talked about this before this spate of trades, when we talked about the East, the best value, and I believe this came from you, was the Indiana Pacers.
20:00
Is it still true that while all of this is going on, the sneaky freaky brother sneaking in from the rear is the Indiana Pacers in this conference?
20:08
Yeah, I still think so, and they also made, like, a sneaky good move in adding, uh, Kelly Oubre Jr. yesterday. Like, they just continue to add depth, and they do it in a, in a cheap fashion.
20:18
That team is really just going to be, like, is Tyrese Haliburton healthy and playing like Tyrese Haliburton or not? Because everyone is back that you would want back from that championship team or that finals runner-up.
20:28
And I think that they've upgraded the center position significantly. So yeah, I still view them as a legitimate contender. I think it's a list of teams in the East this year that can win the East. I mean, look- Yeah...
20:40
the Knicks ended up dominating last year.
20:41
So the group of four that I had last season ended up not even being great, but that group of teams that can win the East is definitely a little bit bigger, and I think the Pacers are in it. Yeah. Well, 100%.
20:51
I mean, it, it's a much deeper conference this year, right? I don't think you're as... We are, a- I think at least at this time, we're not as confident in the top of the board, right, maybe being as great than the rest.
21:02
But yeah. I mean, we put up that graphic. I mean, at this time last year, we were, we were sitting here talking about the Orlando Magic a whole lot. There's not much that's changed with that roster either.
21:12
So yeah, I think you could easily make an argument for an, uh, almost... What is that? 10 teams? 10 teams in the Eastern Conference this year? It's w- wide open. Yeah.
21:22
Always talking ball- And I'd rather the Pacers than the Cavs... Always Talking Ball on Twitter says the same as I. Says, "Everyone is just discounting the Pacers once again." Mm-hmm.
21:31
Um, a lot of people feel that way, a year removed from the Tyrese Haliburton, uh, Achilles injury. Feels like they could've been- Uh, last thing here, Zach... a good Jalen Brown, uh, destination, but, you know.
21:39
[laughs] Never mind. Doesn't came out. I, I just, I just, he's just such a hard player to... You know how people are like, "Oh, he's a good fit here. He's a good fit here"?
21:47
I don't know that Jaylen Brown is a good fit anywhere the way that I see it. Like, I just don't feel like he seamlessly enters another team. In other words, 'cause I just don't think he makes other players better.
22:00
That's just my opinion though. But- So and I, I agree with that point, Gil, where I d- I w- I think a guy who scores 28 points per game you can fit in anywhere. That, that's the only... I, I...
22:09
As far as making other- But that's-... player, guys better, yeah. Does that, does that make, does that make you win championships though? It, it really... I mean, it's like that's, that's the whole thing with basketball.
22:17
La- last thing before you go, Zach. Um, we were talking off air a little bit about this. Back to the Celtics. You had an interesting stat on Payton Pritchard which might lead to a bet for you. Yeah.
22:29
So last year in 861 minutes that Pritchard played without Jaylen Brown, these are per 75 possession numbers. 26.7 points, 7.6 assists, 5.3 rebounds. True shooting percentage, 60.6%.
22:46
So he looked like an elite offensive engine when he played without Jaylen Brown, and 861 minutes is a pretty big sample size.
22:54
I feel like there's a really good chance that a lot of that went into this move is that they believe in Pritchard taking a major leap as their on-ball creator, and I know that that's something that was echoed by Yahoo's Tom Haberstroh, who's really good with numbers as well.
23:08
I feel like this is somebody that can really make a major step forward next season.
23:12
And what I would do with this is, like, look, I do think the Celtics are going to be better or, or really, really good than people think.
23:19
But I, I do think that this is potentially something to keep in mind when Most Improved Player pops up because we've seen- Hmm...
23:25
over the years, and Kelly knows this better than I do, like, this award goes to players that go from good to great, not, like, mediocre to good.
23:33
And if Pritchard makes that type of leap and those numbers aren't lying in any way, I, I feel like there's a chance he's in the conversation. Yeah. I like that. Yeah.
23:41
Kelly, we've been talking about this since primetime action. Mm-hmm. Most Improved going from good to great. We've had a couple exceptions though recently, right? Or at least one. Yeah. Oh, yeah, yeah. DeJounte. Yeah.
23:50
Yeah. D- Dyson Daniels. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Don't be... Yeah. Yeah. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Let's try to talk about that- That was the Defensive Player of the Year winning... Sweet Kate Cunningham ticket I had. Yeah. Son.
23:57
Sorry to have brought that up. Apologies. [laughs] I like it. Pritchard, whenever MIP comes up, uh, let's hope for the best number there. Thank you, Zach. Appreciate it very much. Hope you feel better. Thanks, guys.
24:09
Zach Cohen, everybody. Betting on X and all his stuff on the website at vsin.com. Coming back on A Numbers Game right here at...
24:16
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on- BSIN, the sports betting network Hey, don't sleep on the sharp plays, unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting info, and alerts directly from the pros.
24:35
Just scan the QR code on your screen for more information. Sharpplays.com. Gil Alexander coming to you from San Francisco this week. Uh, we get tweets nonetheless, best listeners in all of radio history. I mean that.
24:51
Jared Still, uh, "I am actually able to listen live today for a little while and I had a passing thought, what's wrong with Gil? Sounds under the weather. Then I heard Zach and realized it's my podcast feed setting, LOL.
25:01
As you were." Thank you very much. Yes. Oh. 1X is, is usually the, uh, the way to do things. Uh, 3JacquesH3131, "Hey, Gil, let me ask you something. What do you think Nick Cannon's body count is?"
25:14
[laughs] Well, based on the evidence- I love that you stopped yourself there. [laughs] That was great... based on, based on the evidence in front of us, it's clearly double digits. Um, who knows, maybe triple.
25:26
I don't know. Maybe he's, you know, potent. Buddhist Man talking about the White, White Men Can't Jump reference from earlier. Yeah. He says it's a very underrated soundtrack as well. Um, I'm looking at the song list.
25:39
I see a lot of big artists, but I can't recognize one song by any of them. I don't re- Not a single one... I don't remember the soundtrack, Buddhist Man, [laughs] I'll tell you that. Yeah.
25:48
Jesse Johnson did a song for the White Men Can't Jump soundtrack? Wow. What do you know about Jesse Johnson, Killy? Anything? Nothing. Nothing. Nothing? I love that movie.
25:56
I actually, that's actually one of my, like, I don't wanna say favorites, but, like, 'cause I, I think it's, I think it's considered a meh movie, right? Like, an average movie.
26:05
I don't think it's considered anything great, but I, I like it better than most. It's one of those- Uh... under the radar great gambling movies. I love gambling movies that nobody talks about being gambling movies.
26:15
Right. 'Cause it's, 'cause it's all them just hustle, hustling playing basketball. It's, it's all about that. It's what the whole movie's about. Well, it's funny, as you said that I'm like, "Gambling movie?"
26:24
And then I'm like, "Oh, of course, the whole thing is- Yeah... is basically a gambling movie. Uh, tennis update. Hit our first two in the morning. On the men's side, Lorenzo Sonego is a winner.
26:33
Zachary Svajda is a winner. Those are, uh, two dog plays, uh, that are already home. Now we are waiting, we are awaiting the big one here, which is, it's tough. Anna Blinkova was up a set as a $5 dog against- Oh, boy...
26:48
Marta Kostyuk. She loses the second set. She was up a break in the third set, and now- Ugh... she's facing a break point herself, so I don't know if that's getting there.
26:58
Uh, Rakumova down a break early in the first set in the other women's match. Uh, Matteo Berrettini, though, up a set. Interestingly, the men going, uh, going splendidly this morning.
27:09
Uh, right now up a set over Arthur Fils. Obviously a long way to go. But 2-0 already in the, uh, books. Svajda plus 150 dog, Sonego a plus 103 dog. So, uh, we'll see which others we can get home as well.
27:23
You, you know what, Gil? It- Only Grigor, only Grigor yet to start. Let's go, Grigor. I- is, is Aisa in attendance? Yeah. Uh, hopefully. I'm sure she is. [laughs] Aisa, I don't even know how to say her name. I, ugh.
27:34
Yeah, that's right. You know what I've, I've been trying to figure out for an hour and a half? What, what Svajda w- was reminding me of, and it finally- Mm-hmm... just hit me. It's Goldmember in Austin Powers.
27:45
I was like, every time- Oh, yeah, yeah... Gil keeps saying this name, I'm like, it, it, something's ringing in my ear, and that's what it is. I finally just figured it out. It w- started to bug me. Meaning My- My Fajda?
27:55
That, that part? Yeah, yeah, you remember that whole scene? Yeah. Yeah, Fajda, Fajda. Yeah. Every time you say his name- My Fajda... I was like, "Why is it, what is this reminding me of?"
28:02
There was My Fajda, and then what was the, uh, didn't he have his, uh, part of his criminal mind, what was that substance he was using? It's also a word that sounds like Svajda also. Oh, I don't remember. Yeah.
28:13
I just remember the, the smoking a pancake, the bong and a blins, that part. [laughs] Smoking a pancake. Goldmember, you look tight. Um- Tight...
28:21
Aaron Bender on T- on Twitter, "Question, uh, if you get a tip on a bet from a friend but don't play it, do you root for the bet to win or lose?" Oh, this is a great question.
28:31
Uh, if you, this is like kind of like a Crack question for later. Yeah. If you get a tip on a bet from a friend but don't play it, do you root for the bet to win or lose? I always root for it to win. It's my friend.
28:40
Just 'cause I didn't play it. Um, I'll tell you the ones that I, the, the reverse psychology happens on is- Yeah, yeah, yeah... again, like, I, I'll have tennis leans, right?
28:50
Double digits worth of them early in a slam like this, and inevitably I won't play all of them. Those I root for to lose, right?
28:59
Which is completely irrational, because I should be rooting for them to win because it will corroborate my numbers and will make me feel more confident about my numbers, but those I will agree with you, I kind of secretly root for them to lose.
29:11
But if it's my buddy giving me a tip and I don't play it, man, I want him to win. Completely same page as you, Gil. Yeah, if it's a friend, I'm, I'm just gonna root for them.
29:19
I don't, I'm not always gonna tell everything, but yeah, I'm gonna be rooting for that. What this reminds me of is I always say this, this, this, this could be a good c- uh, topic for Crack too.
29:28
It's, it's the video poker psychology, Gil.
29:30
It's when I'm sitting at a machine and I'm playing it for a while, and I'm getting my ass kicked and I'm like, "Okay, it's time to get up and move from this machine," and I go to another one to start playing, and then someone sits down at that machine you were just at.
29:44
I, I either, I, nowadays I get up and just walk away completely because I can't see- Yes... that person sit down and hit something big- [laughs] Totally... 'cause I'm gonna lose my mind. I know that. Yeah.
29:55
[laughs] I can s- I can see that for sure. Um, all right, you know about our monthly wins. By the way, we are now one day into July.
30:03
If the monthly market was this, the day market, the Chicago Cubs would be July 1st champions. They won yesterday- That's right... by 20. Woo. 20 over the Padres. Um, but, so we, by the way, I have the Red Sox.
30:16
Red Sox are O and one out of the gate. Of course there was at least one tweet from some idiot like, "Great start, Gil." I'm like, okay, you might be the dumbest person I've ever, I've ever witnessed.
30:27
Um, but we do talk about, beyond the monthlies, we always talk in the beginning of, uh of the month about the race to 10 wins. Uh, so the race to 10 wins in July is something you can bet at DraftKings.
30:39
And by the way, for all that we, you know, take down books for dumb stuff they do, good on them for having this market, man. Yeah, it's awesome. People love this kind of stuff. Short runways.
30:49
So yesterday there were 14 games, which means we have 14 1-0 teams, and then there were two teams that didn't play. I want to say it was the Mariners and the Angels.
30:56
So that's 16 teams that are eligible for this currently after the very first day. Um, the Brewers are the correct short shot. Let's just start there, Kelly. Plus 370.
31:06
The Brewers, uh, won yesterday, so they're 1-0 out of the gate.
31:09
Um, but as we talked about when we were analyzing the monthly market, the Brewers' schedule, um, makes you think that this team is capable of, you know, getting to 10 wins before any other team.
31:26
Uh, here's who the, uh, here's who the Brewers take on. They're playing Cincinnati again today. Then it's three at Arizona, five at St. Louis, some makeup games in there, three at Pittsburgh, three versus Miami.
31:39
Again, this is not the last undefeated. This is the race to 10. So with that schedule, and we went over this again with the monthly, Arizona's not as good as their record indicates. Uh, St.
31:51
Louis is not as good as their actual record indicates. Pittsburgh is actually a little better than their record indicates, uh, even after Paul Skeens got roughed up again yesterday, which is a whole nother sidebar story.
32:02
But I think race to 10, Brewers to me is the play.
32:05
It's interesting that the Braves are the second shot, Kelly, because remember in my monthlies, it was Braves three, Brewers two, and then the one I went with, the Red Sox, because they were 80 to one.
32:16
And the, uh, Brewers were five to one and the Braves were plus 550. I agree with the Braves being the second shot, just like I had them third versus Milwaukee second in the monthly.
32:24
So the Braves schedule here early on, uh, one more versus St. Louis today. Uh, Braves are 1-0. Then it's four versus the Mets. Then it's three at Pittsburgh. Then it's three at St. Louis. So
32:36
I would, I would be a big proponent of either of those two teams. I don't go past that. That's correctly priced to me, but those are still very generous prices here only one day into the month.
32:47
Yeah, this is, uh, this is interesting because what, what I did as soon, as soon as Danny popped this graphic up, uh, over in preview and I go, "Dodgers 12 to one. We're one day in.
32:56
I can get 12 to one on the Dodgers in anything?" Uh, pulled up, okay, yeah, their schedule's pretty tough. The one that's jumping out to me, Gil, Phillies? Phillies nine to one? You've got...
33:07
They already got a win, so they beat Pirates yesterday, right? You got Pirates again, uh, today here this morning. Three against the Royals, three against the Reds, and three against the Tigers.
33:17
Yes, all on the road, but that one, that one, you don't like that one at all? Uh, not as much based on the schedule.
33:26
I'll, I'll tell you where it gets interesting though, because again, race to 10 wins, you can still afford losses. It's still enough of a runway here- Yeah...
33:33
where you're just kind of betting on the best team with the easiest schedule. The last undefeated though, Kelly, sort of segueing to what you were- Mm-hmm...
33:41
from what you were talking about just there, this is a little different because I think the last undefeated, I think you do take a, a longer shot on principle, right?
33:48
This is just what team's going to have a zero in the loss column the last. Right. Um, and on this one, I don't know.
33:56
I think you probably do take a look at a team, um, you know, like the, like the Braves at 13 to one or the Brewers at 18 to one.
34:07
You will see that they are way longer here because their schedule's easy, but it's probably tough to get through undefeated. I still think though that these prices make you go towards those two teams.
34:19
I was very surprised that these markets reflected that. They're like, "Oh wow, no, this makes sense. They should be this long."
34:27
Uh, I think they're a little longer than they should be, so I would, I would still gravitate towards those two teams. Phillies are too short in both, in my opinion, getting back to your point. Hmm. Okay, gotcha.
34:36
I, and I almost lost it here 'cause I was like, "The Dodgers didn't even make the page?" But they, they lost yesterday, so this is- They, they lost already... already eliminated from this competition. That's right.
34:45
Lost to the Athletics by six yesterday. Um, first day of July Major League Baseball. Remember, only, uh, 10 days till the All-Star break, so, uh, the Midsummer Classic will be upon us very quickly.
34:58
Uh, let's, uh, recap the best bets on the show. Crack is next after that on a Numbers Game at Vsinn, the sports betting network.
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36:11
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on Vsinn, the sports betting network. Well, I got good news and I got bad news on the tennis.
36:28
Uh, 2-0 to start the day after a, uh After a, a, a first three days of Wimbledon that were not nearly as great as our grass court season has gone, but a 2-0 to start the day. The $5 dog ain't gonna get home.
36:43
Anna Blinkova losing in the third set to Marta Kostyuk 5-1, so that is not looking good. On the good- Ugh... on the good news side, Matteo Berrettini up two sets to none against Arthur Fils as a $2 dog.
36:55
We've already hit Svajda at plus 150 and Sonego at plus 103, so things looking great on the men's side with Grigor Dimitrov still to come.
37:04
Not so great on the ladies' side, but it was a $5 dog play, so, um, we gave it a run. Yep. Uh, we get tweets beating the book. Bobby Getty's, "Been said before, got, but gotta say it again, imagine not liking sports."
37:18
It's so true, man. Team USA, all these great World Cup soccer matches that are ending in PKs, um, tennis, baseball, football on the horizon. Imagine not liking sports. It's so true.
37:32
Uh, Icegoon, uh, "With Gil not in the studio, does that mean Kelly and Crack will be in a studio at the same time?" Yes.
37:39
Uh, "If so, what is the over under on how long it takes for a UFC-like battle between the two of them?" I say before the end of segment one. Who's the betting favorite in that, in that battle? [laughs] Uh, I don't know.
37:50
No, yeah, I, I mean, I mean s- look, some newer listeners might, might have missed this, Gil, but I used to very much enjoy our times at the D on Thursdays when me, you, and Crack would all be at the table together, and I f- you know, Circa Studio doesn't allow for the same setup, so, uh, you know, I, I'm excited.
38:06
I'm excited to be in studio with Crack. Do you know I don't even remember that? Yeah. It's like it, it's like, yeah, it's so true. 'Cause remember we'd sit- Um-... like we weren't opposite each other, right?
38:16
You were like to my left. Right. You know? And then we'd bring Crack in, and all three of us would sit around the table. Fred Leonards, "My mom took me to the theater to see White Men Can't Jump back in the day.
38:25
We left very soon thereafter. Mom wasn't too keen on the first 10 minutes of the film. Great movie, though." What was the first 10 minutes? I don't remember. I honestly don't remember. What happened?
38:35
I don't remember the opening scene. [laughs] Mom was like, "We gotta get outta here." Oh, man. Um, Brendan, "I didn't take any divisional monthlies." You said, "Who else did you take in the divisional monthlies?"
38:44
I didn't take any of the divisional monthlies, uh, in baseball. Oh, Johnny Brock chiming in on Aaron Bender's tweet from earlier.
38:51
Aaron Bender was wondering, uh, "If you get a tip on a bet from a friend but don't play it, do you root for the bet to win or lose?" And I said, "No, if it's a friend who's giving it to me, I, I root for it."
39:00
But Johnny Brock is correct. He says, "If said friend is super cocky about his betting ability, I will absolutely root for it to lose. Some people need to be humble." Eh. True. Yeah, that, that's a good point, yep. Yeah.
39:15
And Bobby Getty says, "Oh, by the way, I take back my tweet from last week about not wanting Giannis for Jaylen. Can we still make that happen?" You know, Kelly and I were talking a little bit about this off air.
39:26
Right, yeah. Which is part, part of the aside of the Jaylen Brown trade is if you're Milwaukee ownership and you decided, "You know what?
39:34
In the end, we don't wanna deal with this whole thing," and this is, this was my speculation where I was like, "Hey, Jaylen Brown a year from now could be like, 'I want outta here.' I don't wanna deal with that." Mm-hmm.
39:43
He just dealt with Giannis wanting out. He just dealt, uh, what's the other, um, the other sport that he, he's an owner in that he also had to deal with somebody who wanted out?
39:53
So he didn't wanna deal with that with Jaylen Brown. He wanted to go with the sure thing, all the draft picks, start new.
39:59
He's gotta be secretly, like, sorta smiling, Milwaukee ownership does as collective, smiling to themselves of, of like, "Yeah," and as it turns out, the rest of the league wasn't really that anxious to grab him- Yeah...
40:12
for his salary. So, uh, they must feel great about that. It was one of the more, uh, Jimmy Haslam for the Browns, right? Um- Jimmy Haslam So the, uh- Oh, Myles Garrett. Myles Garrett- Right... is who I'm thinking of.
40:21
Right. Yes, thank you.
40:22
You know, it is interesting 'cause it was, I, I think that was where, where I was a l- part of my confusion of working through all this yesterday was, man, these reports during the Giannis, you know, sweepstakes at the end really made it sound like Boston was just a c- a piece or two away, and, and Milwaukee just wanted some of their kinda younger guys thrown in, and they didn't wanna commit to that.
40:45
So yeah, Gil, I, I, I think there might be a big sigh of relief 'cause I, I, maybe Milwaukee was the only, about the only other team that was kinda high on Jaylen Brown.
40:54
And, uh, yeah, they, they, they might've saved themselves there. Who knows? Guess we'll find out. Yeah.
40:59
Uh, here are the best bets, by the way, beyond the, uh, tennis today, um, which we'll review here momentarily 'cause again, the only tennis still to go is Grigor Dimitrov. Um, but Iga to win Wimbledon 10 to 1.
41:11
Case you missed it, Iga was, uh, double parked outside, or she had a plane to catch. She dispatched Karolína Plíšková, who I believe Drew had at 125 to 1 to win the tournament. Yeah, some triple digits.
41:21
Uh, Iga said, I- Iga said, "Yeah, get, get out my way."
41:25
But Iga's gotta take on Alex Eala in the third round, but Iga to win Wimbledon at 10 to 1, uh, when it drifted after she lost to Emma Navarro at Bad Homburg, uh, a week before.
41:36
And the Red Sox, most wins in July, 80 to 1. By the way, let the record show again that the Chicago Cubs finished four wins behind the Miami Marlins at 16 and 10 last month.
41:46
People were giving me a lot of incoming on the pick of the Cubs last, uh, month.
41:51
If it weren't for the Marlins, man, we were in play the whole time, but the Marlins set a 15-month record in Major League Baseball, at least as long as we've been tracking these markets, for the best record in any month in the last two and a half years, 20 and six.
42:06
Unbelievable. That, that was also the most- Kelly, what do you got?... the most wins the Marlins have ever had in any month in the history of their franchise. That was pretty incredible.
42:14
And zero, and it deserves repeating, zero people had a ticket on it, which is one thing at Circa, but just incredible to think about at William Hill Caesars with all of their brick-and-mortar shops. Yeah, totally.
42:25
Totally. Uh, John Deere Classic underway. Birdie fest, we talked about it yesterday, updated the leaderboard. Lucas Glover seven under through 13 has a lead.
42:34
I do have some first-round leader plays going today if anybody wants to get involved. These guys, none of them have teed off yet. I played actually everybody a little bit later, uh, in the day.
42:43
Keith Mitchell 35 to 1, Tom Kim 40 to 1, Aldrich Potgieter 60 to 1, A.J. Jewett 90 to 1.
42:50
Um, and if you're wondering, "Wow, Kelly, you usually don't have that many first-round leader bets," well, these were all guys I kinda made bets on full tournament, and they just happened to be pretty quality first-round guys.
42:59
So- Figured I'd throw 'em in, Gil, you know? Okay. Uh, so those are first-round leaders. I have nothing soccer today.
43:07
Just to review, uh, NFL bets we talked a little bit about yesterday, Panthers under seven and a half wins, I added, and then the, to go along with Browns under six and a half wins, and Bills to win the AFC East.
43:18
Those are all in the VSiN NFL betting guide. I haven't heard you mention it at all, show. I haven't mentioned it all, show. Any soccer that you're looking at today?
43:28
I think I'm j- think I'm just rolling with my, I got a Portugal future still left for them to make the quarter, so I think I'm just gonna be rooting that on.
43:34
Other than that, I think, I don't think I'm betting any soccer today, looking at this board. Yeah. Danny was just asking me, Danny Higgins was just, uh, asking me off-air if I was.
43:43
It's Spain, Austria, it's Portugal, Croatia, it's Switzerland, Algeria. Um, the draws have been so profitable, especially in the group stage. There's been some heartbreak here in the round of 32.
43:54
Yesterday, the most miracle draw of all of them on the- Yeah... Belgium-Senegal game. Um, I kind of am taking that as a sign that the train might be slowing down a little bit, so I don't have anything now.
44:08
If I do, I might bet a draw on my own a little later on. Um, I, you know- Bro, think about how, think about the combo luck me and you had on that game. You ha- 'cause you had the draw. Oof.
44:19
To get those goals, I, I, the, I had Belgium to make the quarterfinals, and then I also have that penalty kick prop over. So that was- [laughs] Yeah. I, I needed both the goals for them to- That's incredible...
44:30
right, to draw, then get to extra time, then advance on a penalty. It was incredibly lucky.
44:36
The, the difference between the group stage and the round of 32 on the, on the draw strategy has been that in the group stage, it has, the, the, a lot of those draws just coasted home. Mm-hmm. Right?
44:46
And you were like, even if you were down, you know, if a team was up, uh, a goal, you never had any lack of confidence that it was going to end up in a draw, and so we hit tons of those one day, where you just hit 'em left and right, which was incredible.
44:58
Um, in this round of 32, it feels like it's heartbreak against us or just ridiculous luck win for us.
45:06
So it doesn't, it doesn't have the same feel, even though we speculated that draws would probably be more likely in the round of 32- Yeah...
45:15
in the knockout stage, period, than it would be in the group stage, because the thinking is, "Oh, well, those players will know that they have 30 minutes of extra time to lean back on and may not press in the same way late in regulation."
45:29
That hasn't been the case. Like, there's just the, the late goals have just now happened at a much higher rate than they did in the group stage. So nothing for me.
45:38
Um, by the way, tomorrow's even, tomorrow's even more, um- I was just thinking the same thing, yep. Yeah. Just, I mean- E- Egypt-Australia draw early in the morning, that sounds good, but- Yeah...
45:49
not the most exciting game to watch. I don't know. Colombia- Colombia, Ghana at night, I think I'll have the draw in that. I certainly went with Argentina and Cape Verde in the middle. That's for sure. Yeah.
45:58
Uh, Zach was on earlier.
45:59
He's on Victoria Golubic on the, uh, ladies' side as a dog against Jasmine Paolini, plus 139, and then tomorrow at Wimbledon, he's got himself a parlay, Barbora Krejcikova and, uh, Bartykova, or excuse me, versus Bartykova, and Roman Safiullin against Joao Fonseca.
46:17
So it's a Krejcikova, Safiullin money line parlay. Oh, actually, no, not a money line parlay. Krejcikova's the money line.
46:22
Safiullin is plus two and a half sets, so he just needs Safiullin to take one set from Joao to hit that parlay tomorrow from Zach.
46:30
Um, and then Dalencuff earlier today, speaking of the World Cup, Croatia to advance versus Portugal. Doesn't matter how they get through.
46:39
He just needs them to advance, plus 233, and then Austria, Spain under two and a half goals. Uh, he is sitting out the Algeria game tonight against Switzerland. Crack next. Doesn't matter that I'm in San Francisco.
46:53
Kelly's gonna be at the desk with Bill Krackomberger. Unscripted next on a Numbers Game with VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat rock music]
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