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Jul 30, 2024
A Numbers Game | July 30, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | July 30, 2024 | Hour 1
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44:33
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VN. Good morning, everybody.
0:10
Trade deadline Tuesday here in downtown Las Vegas. Jared Smith in for Gil today and the rest of the week. Kelly Bidlin with us as well. Good morning, Kelly. How are you doing, sir? Doing well. Doing well.
0:21
Just looking for House of Dragon props for you. Well, we were... So y- you guys are not privy. Sometimes I wish, sometimes I don't. So- We also keep screwing up the name of the show.
0:29
I, I was calling it House of Dragons for, like, a year and a half- Yeah, no... and that's not correct, right? H-O- House of the Dragon?... T-D. Okay. H-O-T-D, G-O-T-D, right?
0:39
Or G-O-T, Game of Thrones, House of the Dragon. Yeah, so we were talking, um, we, we were talking a little bit of entertainment, uh, before we came on here today.
0:48
I don't want to go too much off the beaten path here, but let's just leave it at this.
0:52
If you're not a House of the Dragon fan, just, just turn off the screen right now because I don't want you to watch the show because it's... I think it's better than...
0:59
I, I honestly think at the end of the day, we will talk about this show, House of the Dragon, in more reverence than the original series, which I think got- Hot take, bro... significantly worse.
1:11
Uh, it, it, like, peaked season two, season three, and then got really bad towards the end. Whereas I think this show is gonna be, I hope- I hope you're right. Yeah... we're only on season two. I hope.
1:19
I think this show is gonna be more of a steady incline and not as much of a rollercoaster and then drop, it, towards the end of the seasons. I don't know when it's gonna- the show's gonna end. Maybe it will.
1:31
But I don't know. I'm really digging it. I'm, I'm, I'm digging the stories. I'm digging the, uh, um, the, the, the last couple of episodes have been really good with these new dragons.
1:40
And I'm, uh, now, also, I'm a big TikTok guy. I'm not... I don't post a whole lot, but I like watching the TikTok videos. I don't even have an account. And the recaps and the parodies and the memes- [laughs]...
1:52
the day after the, the episode- Yeah, yeah, yeah... airs, every, all the content creators go to work and it's... It really does add life. I do this with Marvel, too, where I'll watch the movie.
2:04
I just watched, uh, uh, Deadpool, and then half the fun is the next week, all of the content creators do the Easter eggs that you missed. And I'll watch hours of nerd stuff.
2:16
[laughs] It's the only time I'm not looking at sports, is when I'm looking at nerd videos. But I, I, guess- Yeah, you go from nerd to nerd fee. I go from nerd to nerfee.
2:26
Um, we had an okay night with the nerfee yesterday. The one I gave out here on the show lost, but we went [laughs] w- the other three I, I g- tweeted out won. That's how it works. Yep.
2:33
Um, that's which is of course how it works. So we did go f- we did go three and one on the night. I'm never gonna complain about that. Um, but baseball's in a weird spot right now. I, I did give out a pick last night.
2:43
It's the Rays Marlins nerfee. It steamed overnight.
2:45
I'm getting really g- if, if, if I had a nickel for every time I gained a penny of, uh, a CLV on these nerfees, I'd be rich because it, it's really easy to, to kind of pick out which ones are gonna move overnight.
2:55
Not always as correlative to the, the winning bets, uh, because this market's just so random, but I am on that nerfee today. It's probably the only baseball bet I am going to make, um, until the trade deadline.
3:09
Yesterday was really weird. Yesterday was kind of a mini trade deadline. Right. And what I mean by that is there were guys getting pulled from starts because of trades. Houston's situation got completely blown up.
3:22
Today's starter for Cincinnati got blown up last night with Frankie Montas getting traded to the Brewers.
3:28
Again, when you're dealing with baseball on a daily basis, the most important thing over a- anything else is who's starting on the mound. And when those situations get tweaked with that are on a...
3:43
Like, we had no idea that Jake Bloss, who was the starter for Houston yesterday, was being talked about in the Kikuchi trade.
3:49
A lot of people bet, for example, a lot of people bet that nerfee last night because it was Paul Skene. Even though Bloss isn't this ace pitcher, anytime Paul Skene's on the mound, people are gonna bet the nerfee. Right.
4:00
You bet that nerfee two, three hours before the game. Even if you bet it, you know, last night, t- two nights ago, the night before, and Bloss gets scratched because of a trade, you're on the hook for that nerfee still.
4:14
Same thing in Detroit yesterday with Flaherty. Now, I haven't heard that Flaherty got traded yesterday, but everybody was betting that nerfee yesterday 'cause it was Bibee, Flaherty, low total, big nerfee game.
4:25
That's the tricky stuff with the nerfee. Not every market's like this. You're on the hook no matter what. If those starting pitchers get scratched- Action... action no matter what.
4:36
So if you bet the nerfee in UC yesterday, you, you cashed anyways because whoever was relieving, um, you know, uh, Bloss did a great job. I think they had, like, a no-hitter into the fifth inning yesterday for Houston.
4:45
Uh, Skene's not as solid, but he had his moments. And Detroit, that, that was a yearfee. Uh, Cleveland scored in the first inning off, I think, Bo Brisky, who was the guy that started in place of Flaherty.
4:56
So we had a lot of trades last night and a lot of trades coming up today. Really tricky day to bet baseball, Kelly. Really tough day. Yeah.
5:01
Oh, yeah, de- definitely we were, you know, we, you and I were talking about this a little bit yesterday, but I think this is, uh, I, I, you know, almost any sport, right?
5:08
You get around, you get around a trade deadline, it's just, it's be careful, if anything. Yeah.
5:13
I, I, yeah, maybe there's n- maybe there are some spots you can bet, but man, you gotta be, you just gotta be sure of things, like [laughs] guys are gonna be in the lineup. Yeah.
5:21
When, I mean, when baseball, more so than any other sport actually that I can think of, it is, immediate reaction is, okay, trade might not even be announced yet, but guys getting pulled out of the lineup- Exactly...
5:31
and you know it's coming. And, and it's, that can come out of nowhere if you're pla- planning on betting these games. So I'm gonna be careful today. We should get some news over the next six hours.
5:42
I don't think we're gonna be, maybe, who knows? Maybe we'll be on the air for one of the big moves. The bigger moves yesterday, the, the guys that were pulled from starts, not as big a move.
5:51
And again, I haven't heard anything on Flaherty, but the fact that he got pulled from a start yesterday, I think it's pretty obvious that he's in some kind of trade talks. Yeah.
5:58
I, uh, maybe the trade hasn't happened yet, but the talks are ongoing. Bloss definitely got traded yesterday. He was part of the Kikuchi deal. Toronto sends Kikuchi to Houston.
6:07
Houston got Loprafeito, um, Bloss, and I think one other prospect. The other trades that were impactful yesterday, the Dodgers and the Cardinals made a three-team deal together with the White Sox.
6:17
The White Sox are basically that old house on the corner that's having the yard sale. [laughs] Everything Has to go. [laughs] Everything.
6:26
The guy's, you know, knick-knacks and paddywhacks from 20 years ago that he hasn't used. Every little trinket in the garage has to be sold by the [laughs] by the White Sox. They dealt Fedde and Pham.
6:37
Actually, good job by the White Sox. I remember the Tommy Pham deal right before the season started. He was kind of going back and forth on where he wanted to sign with. He ended up picking Chicago.
6:47
Probably not the best choice for his, um, you know, win-loss record. But now he gets traded to a cont- I don't want to say contender in the Cardinals, but at least they're in the race more so than the White Sox are.
6:57
[laughs] Right. Yeah, yeah. Um, but that's one of those examples of a team taking a low risk flyer on a guy in the off season late- Mm-hmm...
7:04
late in spring training, and then using him as a piece to flip back, uh, some prospects.
7:10
I don't know the prospects that the White Sox got back, but they gave up Kopech, they gave up Fedde, they gave up Pham, um- Miguel Vargas? I don't know these guys. Alexander Albertus and Geral Perez. There you go.
7:21
That was the White Sox. Those are the guys. If you know 'em- And the Dodgers... God bless you.
7:24
Um, Tommy Edmund also goes to the Dodgers, which I thought was an interesting kind of side piece to that ménage à trois three-team deal they did. Um, the Braves get Jorge Soler back, which is funny.
7:34
It is funny to see guys go back to their former teams. Yeah. Um, which is always intriguing. They made a deal with the Giants.
7:41
The, the one thing that I like about this day and today, or yesterday and today, really the last three or four days, and the Cubs are a good example of this, we were unsure on certain teams, are you buying or selling?
7:52
Right. Well, the Cubs are buyers. Well, the Giants are sellers. And I think that's, you know, you kind of get this, um, I ta- I use the example of playing blackjack.
8:03
Imagine playing blackjack and you get to see the dealer's hole cards. Every other day of the season pretty much, we don't get to see the dealer's hole cards.
8:11
We do not know what's going on in these organizations behind the scenes. When the trade deadline happens and they've got to flip the hole cards over, we get to see 'em.
8:21
And I think that's adva- uh, you know, it, it's advantageous for us to go inside the minds of these, uh, uh, behind, you know, front offices and scouting departments and kind of see how they value guys and see how they value their own organizations, and see what the price is.
8:35
Like, we're, we might find out about Tarik Skubal today. We might find out about some other starters.
8:39
Flaherty, I think, is a guy that, you know, [laughs] since he got pulled from a start yesterday, I would expect him to get moved at some point today. Um, those are big names.
8:47
I, you know, those are guys that Cy Young candidates, those are all-star type caliber pitchers. Um, Eric Fedde, uh, he's having an all-star caliber year. We'll see what he does in St. Louis. St.
8:58
Louis just keeps losing games in tough ways. Um, and the Brewers keep winning games in tough ways.
9:03
I, I think it's going to be hard pressed for anyone, uh, to win that division besides Milwaukee, even though I have no faith in Milwaukee. The Dodgers obviously showing you their hand.
9:12
The Yankees, Jess Chisholm looks great. Yeah. Like, it, it's just, you're starting to see some of these players. The Blue Jays are a selling team. We'll see if they move another one of their big pieces today.
9:22
Yeah, Justin Turner to the Mariners- Yeah, that was another one... and Yusmeiro Petit to the Astros. And then Montas was the other one, um, that we mentioned yesterday.
9:30
But this is, this is a day that, I'll be honest, I don't have a whole strong desire to bet baseball. I, I'd rather look at other things.
9:38
Um, the other news we saw last night, and we were talking about this before we came on, um, and we'll get to some Olympic stuff a little bit later in the show. Drew Dinsick's gonna come on in this hour.
9:47
We'll talk, uh, Olympic tennis, actually coming up in our next segment. Um, but Coco Gauff just had a really rough morning, and, and, and I was on her five to one to win, uh, uh, the women's gold medal.
9:57
Um, I want to say she was like a, like a minus 1,500 favorite or something against Danilovic. Um, she was a big favorite, um, overnight.
10:05
Uh, really her and, and, and, and Iga Swiatek were, were just massive favorites in, in both of their matches. You, you got it there? Yeah, absolutely, like minus 700. Minus 700. Yeah, something like that.
10:14
So she was a big favorite. Yeah. Um, loses, uh, in straight sets to Danilovic, and one of it was, was controversial. You said you were watching the match this morning?
10:22
I was watching a fair amount, but then they were, yeah, they were, she was arguing with the ump over whatever po- Yeah.
10:28
I mean, I, I, prepping for the show, it is, uh, it, it- You were watching- Well, it's tough in the- One eye open...
10:33
it's tough in the early stages, 'cause I got my two TVs going with, I got Canada and Australia basketball going, which I w- Oh, yeah, what's, what's about the basketball? Anything- Ca- Canada held on.
10:41
They did win, uh, I think they won by 10 over Australia. Okay. I have not been watching the Olympics. I feel like I'm, I feel like the Olympics are that show that everyone says I need to watch and then I don't watch.
10:50
Uh, like I, I'm, I'm just- Like, "You have to see this movie. It's so good." I'm the guy who I think is watching the Olympics for all the wrong reasons.
10:56
You know, like I, I, I, I [laughs] I think people- Is your betting on the pommel horse? Well, no, no, like, like the people that get into the Olympic sports, like that's what it's meant for. Yeah.
11:04
Like, I'm the guy who's watching the same old stuff I'd watch anyway. Yeah. It's like I'm just like missing the NBA, so I'm watching basketball.
11:09
I think, I think the Olymp- the, the best part about the Olympics, and NBC does a great job with this, this is where the reporters really shine. Yeah. We don't know these... It's unlike the NBA. Everyone knows LeBron.
11:22
We don't know these guys. Very true, yeah. Being able to tell the story and, and connect us to these athletes, I think is one of the best things about the Olympics.
11:30
Harder to do in the basketball, easier to do in the swimming, gymnastics type of sports. The Gold Zone's been sweet. The Go- [laughs] I did watch like 20 minutes of that. I should turn on the Gold Zone.
11:40
We've got our own Gold Zone coming up next. That's right. Drew Dinsick, Will Capor on the other side of Numbers Game.
11:43
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12:01
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12:07
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12:16
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12:27
Check out the current offers right now at vsin.com/subscribe All right, we are back here on a Numbers Game. It is trade deadline Tuesday.
12:36
Jarret Smith, Kelly Bidlin, and joining us now on the Progressive guest line, you know him as Whale Kapner, I know him as Drew Dincic. Does a great job covering all things NFL and the Olympics.
12:45
Uh, of course follow him, uh, on social media @whale_kapner.
12:48
Drew, uh, we were talking about it briefly before we came on, but a really controversial, uh, situation happening in the women's tennis competition this morning surrounding Coco Gauff. I wasn't watching. You were.
12:59
Please fill me in. Yeah, I thought it was absolutely ridiculous. Um, Coco Gauff, uh, fighting for her life in the second set, uh, you know, o- you know, trying to avoid a break point.
13:11
Um, return comes in, comes back to her. It looks out. The lines person calls it out. Coco does not continue play, which is very common when the lines person [laughs] makes a call.
13:23
Uh, and the chair umpire overruled, said, "No, it was in," and point awarded Vekic, which was a break point. Uh, and the problem is, like, if the lines person interrupts play and you don't return it in, like, tech...
13:35
And, and the chair umpire is sure that the call was wrong, uh, that should be replay point, not point awarded. Mm. Uh, and I'm not exactly sure what happened there.
13:44
I gotta watch the replay a little bit more closely, make sure there wasn't some other factor that, uh, you know, kind of begot this. But, uh, it feels...
13:52
You know, my first thing that I looked up was literally like, "Are these the normal tour umpires?" Yeah. "Or do they have some, like, Make-A-Wish umpire up there?"
13:59
[laughs] Uh, you know, try- you know, just like, "Hey, experience the Olympics." Yeah. Uh, you know, France y- France, they love their c- their tennis.
14:05
We're gonna put a French fan in the, you know, the umpire's chair here. 'Cause it was, it was that kind of level of ridiculous, uh- Wow... this, you know, kind of, uh, m- you know, uh, just weird call.
14:15
And what's especially weird is this is now two times this year this has happened to Coco Gauff at this tournament.
14:21
[laughs] Which I, I'm, I'm really just, like, kind of confused why she seems to be getting the short end of the stick in the sport. But whatever the case is, she wasn't gonna win the gold.
14:29
She was probably gonna get, uh, a medal, but, uh, this, uh, this has now derailed all of US women's tennis and, um, you know. So it, uh, you know, it... For, for you guys, it's trade deadline Tuesday.
14:41
For me, it's, it's, uh, men's trap final Tuesday. [laughs] Yes. Uh, and we're- That's what I wanna hear about... s- sweating out, uh, the, uh, the great British, uh, world record holder in the trap.
14:51
If you don't know what the trap is, it's basically skeet shooting. I had no idea. Um, it involves going- I thought it was a trapezoid, like a workout or something. I don't know.
14:58
[laughs] No, it's literally these guys, you know, with the, with the rifles- That's awesome...
15:03
pop- popping, popping the clay, uh, the clay pigeons, and they, they, they do this, you know, pink puff, and the reaction times are so fast it's like- Wow... it seems impossible.
15:12
It's like, well, we, we can't be watching skeet shooting. That's what this is? Like, [laughs] how are they so fast? Uh, and yeah, the world record holder from Great Britain, Nathan Hale's right now.
15:21
His world record, by the way, is 49 out of 50.
15:24
[laughs] Uh, and he is, uh, he's on pace to get 48 out of 50, and, uh, I need him to get this gold over the Chinese competitor, uh, Ying Qi, uh, as I have Great Britain over golds and China under gold.
15:37
So, uh, there's drama in almost every- Wow... event. And, uh, they, uh, the Peacock has introduced the new Gold Zone this year. So you basically just get fire hose of live- Wow... what's happening in random sports.
15:50
Uh, and, uh, when you have positions all across the medal markets, so you have specific countries you're cheering for and against, it makes, like, watching the, the Gold Zone pretty unbelievable.
16:00
So, uh, it's been a wild few days. So Drew, uh, you, you're, you're completely pro Gold Zone?
16:05
This isn't like an NFL Red Zone where we have like a split audience because you don't get to watch more of the entirety of the game, you're just watching the touchdowns?
16:13
You know, like you're okay with just watching the medals? So there's two sides to this. Uh, the Gold Zone, you know, they're not giving away golds all the time like there are touchdowns all the time in the 1:00 hour.
16:25
But, uh, but they are kind of giving you a little bit of, um... You know, like yesterday is a good example. Like, there was gold finals splattered a- all along, like, men's gymnastics.
16:36
And so they had sort of a good backdrop for if there wasn't something happening there, there was like, you know, just general kind of the most interesting thing going on at the Olympics was on the Gold Zone.
16:47
Um, and but the, you know, the trick to enjoying the Gold Zone is if there are specific sports that you're trying not to ruin because you wanna watch the actual kind of- Mm...
16:55
packaged portion, you just gotta know very clearly when those are on and not be watching. [laughs] So that's kind of... You know, the navigating the schedule has been kind of the f- the fun and tricky part of it.
17:06
Um, but ultimately, uh, it's been a huge, huge improvement in terms of just, uh, just in every year it feels like it gets better. But, like, the access to the games and what you wanna see, like, has never been easier.
17:18
Um, like I think, like, so far highlights for me, um, again, I'm on Great Britain over, I'm against France gold, right?
17:26
And, um, my, so my favorite moment so far of the Olympics was the, uh, men's, um, uh, mountain biking, uh, course.
17:35
[laughs] And the reason it was so fun is, uh, the favorite half coming in was the defending champion from Great Britain, who I basically had in pen as winning gold, Tom Pidcock. And, uh, Pidcock got a flat tire. Oh.
17:46
[laughs] You're not gonna believe this. Flat tire on like, uh, on lap three of seven. And who takes the, like, almost impossibly strong lead was a French guy, and I'm like, "Are you kidding me?"
17:57
[laughs] Like, this is crazy. Like, what the heck? And Pidcock fought his way back into the lead. Ultimately was going neck and neck with the French guy all the way to the very, very death.
18:07
And right at the death, he made a, m- Pidcock made an impossible pass out, like, went outside of a tree, stayed on the course somehow.
18:14
[laughs] Just got ahead of the French guy to where they kind of bumped, but Pidcock had priority. The French guy has to unclip. He completely loses his momentum. And, uh, and Pidcock races to the win.
18:25
The beauty was the French really are patronizing the Olympics very, very seriously. So they had a huge [laughs]-... contingent at the finish line just mercilessly booing [laughs] Pidcock.
18:38
Just like, like they, you know, 'cause the, the video replay mi- it looked kind of questionable. Like, it looked like Pidcock, you know, kind of initiated the contact, and he could have been at fault.
18:47
Um, and, uh, yes, they, they were not pleased, uh, that their, their competitor was, uh, relegated to second place- Mm... you know, silver medal, uh, on the, on the, uh, uh, on the touching there.
18:57
And, uh, yeah, they booed him all through the medal ceremony. It was unbelievable. So, uh, that was a highlight. The surfing has been a highlight. Yeah.
19:04
Um, if you have a chance and you're kind of curious about a new weird sport, check out the equestrian eventing cross country. They set up like- Oh, I saw that What? I saw that yesterday or something. Oh my God. Yeah.
19:14
It was pretty cool. Usually that's a throw, usually it's a throw hole. Is it just horse racing across the country? Like- It's a five-kilometer, this was a five-kilometer la- loop that they set up at the- Wow...
19:23
Palace of Versailles Gardens, right? Oh, I've been there. So it's like going- I've been to Versailles... going through the gardens and around the fountains and ponds- Yeah, that's-...
19:30
of the Palace [laughs] of Versailles- That's awesome... on horses- That's awesome... doing jumps. And basically, like you have nine minutes to complete the 5K, and doing the 45 jumps without, you know, taking penalties.
19:42
Um, and, uh- Th- th- there was some bridge across water involved I saw too- Yes, yes... that was really cr- I was like, "This is a sweet sprint- Oh, it was pretty cool. Oh, it was beautiful...
19:47
over a brid- a bridge over water of some kind." That was... Yeah. I don't even know what I'm looking at. Yeah. I mean, Versailles- Yeah... I remember going there.
19:53
It, it, it, it, it looks like, like a castle, but then you go to the back, it's like a city back there. Yeah. Yeah. It literally is like a city. Um, it's crazy.
20:02
Like, you should specifically check it out if you've been there. 100%. You will enjoy it. The, the, the... It was the, apparently it was the hottest ticket in Paris on like Sunday- Well, Versailles-...
20:09
and it's beautiful weather... like so pretty, just like that whole area back there. Drew, I, I mean, I'm curious because, you know, you've bet on a lot of things over the course of your life.
20:18
Where do the Olympics kind of fall contextually with, "Hey, there's value here"? Like, like, uh, you know, in terms of the NFL- Oh, yeah...
20:25
and the other th- you know, the other sports, especially the, you know, the tennis, which is, you know, uh, obviously huge index markets that fluctuate variantly, have big long shots.
20:33
NFL a little bit more points spread based. Like, where does Olympics kind of slot into, "Hey, I'm spending time and I'm rating this because there's value here"? Yeah, no, I...
20:42
I mean, my expectation coming into any Olympic Games is that I'm gonna make a profit, largely 'cause I'm trying to capture the macro, which is- Sure...
20:49
how is a country going to do across all of these sports, and there's lots of, uh, you know, kind of n- unique ways to hit that market.
20:55
Um, but the, uh, you know, but in general, like it's not enough volume, and the liquidity is kind of a little bit tight.
21:03
Um, and like swimming, for example, is probably the sport that I have like the strongest handicap on, and like the smattering of available options, uh, where I can get big bets down is- Mm... just pretty lean.
21:14
Uh, and so like, you know, I'm not... This isn't, uh, anywhere close to the type of liquidity I could get on like NBA playoffs- Yeah... right?
21:21
Um, but, uh, but it still is a ton of fun, and just the fact that like getting involved in the metal market basically means you have skin in every single event of 130 events just makes- Awesome...
21:31
these two weeks like just incredibly fun. All right, Drew, what are, what are we, what are you firing on today, man? You got any, you got any- [laughs]... you got any rando Olympics bets? Badminton or something.
21:39
Um, biggest sweat, biggest sweat for me today is the, uh, men's 4x200 freestyle relay tonight- Okay... in the swimming. Uh, I have a big old bet on, uh, Great Britain.
21:47
Uh, this was, this is one where like there are a couple of swimming events where the favorites should be like minus 800 or minus 2000, and they're like minus 300, and this is one of those.
21:58
I bet it into, I think I first, my first bet was in the minus 225 range. It betted out to about minus 300 and stopped.
22:05
And, uh, I think, yeah, I think this is, this is, uh, one that I would be blown away if anyone can take down the Brits in the 4x200 men's free relay. Uh, and I will be sweating that heavily. Uh, I have a...
22:15
And then I have just a fun play on Regan Smith to take down Kaylee McKeown. The rivalry between USA and Australia is at its absolute peak.
22:23
This is the closest event of all of the swimming of the entire, you know, uh, the entire schedule. So, uh, let's go USA, take down the Australians. Let's go Regan Smith. Love it.
22:34
We'll get to some more, uh, picks on the other side. In the NFL, a little more teams you, uh, teams and, and players you've probably heard of as we- [laughs]...
22:41
transition to NFL on the other side here with, uh, Drew Dincic, Numbers Game. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. All right, we're calling this the Silver Zone now.
22:56
We can't take Gold Zone, but we're going Silver Zone here as we, uh, uh, conclude our Olympic coverage for the day. Great stuff with Drew Dincic.
23:04
Let's go right back to him, um, as we continue to talk here on the Progressive guest line.
23:08
All right, Drew, let's, let's quickly, um, uh, transition to NFL because as much as I can talk Olympics with you all day, bud, but, uh, we have pressing matters at hand. The NFL season starts this week.
23:17
We have a Hall of Fame game this week. It's crazy, uh, how quickly- What?... the off-season, uh, just evaporates like that. Um, where are you with your process? We were talking about it a little bit during the break.
23:27
Like, I'm always interested in, you know, how you go about your off-season process, when it starts, where are you now, and, and, and what do you expect to accomplish over the next week or so until we really get into the pre-season?
23:38
Yeah, so first pass for me is usually after the draft and after win totals pop. Like, I just kind of do a, uh, a general what did I think about, uh, just how did t- how, how did teams go about, um-...
23:48
ah, changing rosters, really just roster evaluations.
23:51
And then combine that with, ah, what is the, ah, expectation market wide, ah, and make some predictions about which teams I think are gonna get bets so you can kind of make some assessments, some on- some judgment on mark of entry if you want to get involved with futures.
24:04
Ah, and you know, I, I tend to kind of make a first pass at all teams, ah, and then do a more detailed pass as we get closer to the season starting up really right now. Like is- Hmm...
24:14
you know, I'm, I'm in, I'm in phase two, which is more a lot, a lot more of, okay, I've, I've formulated some opinions, now I'm gonna go, you know, read Football Outsiders Almanac, right?
24:22
I'm gonna, I'm gonna read, ah, you know, some of the people who I have, like, the most respect for in terms of opinions about, ah, power rating teams, about, ah, ranking quarterbacks, ah, you know, across what is generally considered sort of the, ah, intelligentsia of the NFL space.
24:38
Ah, and, ah, and then kind of actually do fine-tune my numbers.
24:42
So I have a first crack of I've scraped a lot of data, ah, where I'm looking at grades from PFF, I'm looking at AV from Pro Football Reference, I'm looking at, ah, just in general some specific metrics for given units that I think are useful, pass block win rate, ah, pressure rate.
24:57
Ah, you know, just in general, a, a whole smattering of, ah, of, um, metrics for quarterbacks.
25:04
Ah, and come up with, ah, nu- numerical ratings for a given quarterback, a given quarterback OC combo, ah, and then synthesize all those into what I think is a fair rating for an offense or a defense that represents the entire season.
25:18
Ah, simulate the season, come up with, ah, what I think are sort of final fares given what we know about every team.
25:24
Ah, and then from there, I'd like to, I'd like to be done with that before we really get into the meat of the preseason.
25:30
And then from there, I take a season number and I tweak it to a week one number based on what we're seeing in the preseason, based on, ah, you know, just in general trying to kind of correctly capture the shape that certain teams, ah, tend to go through from week one to week, ah, you know, 18.
25:47
Like, you know, Dolphins are a good example where you can come up with a season long fare for the Dolphins for simming purposes, and it's probably not gonna be the same as your week one fare because the Dolphins are one of the teams where you would say at full health, at full strength, um, you know, in the, in the, ah, the part of the season where there's not a lot of film on what McDaniel wants to do, they're a more dynamic offense.
26:09
And then as you get later into the season and you, you know, the weather gets colder and Tyreek Kirk gets, you know, Tyreek Hill gets hurt and just in general the, the team gets better understood by league defenses, they're not as effective.
26:20
And so, ah, you know, I think it's important to kind of have a, a number and a, an, an expectation for a team that's season long for the purpose of, ah, futures markets.
26:29
And then, you know, kind of getting more granular, getting a, a fair number for them week one so you can get week one bets in is, is sort of the name of the game.
26:37
And, ah, and in that process, like kind of thinking beyond just what is a fair price for this team, ah, is kind of looking at their schedule specifically and trying to come up with a thesis for if this team is a bettable team, when is the right time to get involved?
26:52
Is it now? Is it, you know, was it May? [laughs] Yeah.
26:55
Or, you know, is it, is it, ah, you know, on the eve of the season after we know, understand a little bit more about, ah, you know, certain positional groups or is it week 12 when, you know, it's, they've, they've kind of gotten through the, the most difficult part of their schedule and, ah, their chief opponent in division is about to enter their most difficult part of the schedule?
27:13
And so that's mostly my, um, you know, kind of rubric for going through team by team. And, ah, once it's all done, I'll kind of be perfectly candid.
27:24
I'm a pretty light player in the futures pool, ah, preseason just because most of the options are coin flippy stuff. Yeah.
27:30
Ah, like win totals, like season long props, and, ah, and I'm much more interested if I'm locking up capital for the purpose of, you know, futures payout over the balance of six months.
27:42
It's, you know, I, I need something like I, I prefer something in like the 10 plus, 30 plus range, ah, as opposed to something that's, you know, -110.
27:50
So, ah, I tend to kind of look for the huge upside, ah, or huge downside on certain teams and try to capitalize that mostly in the futures market nowadays relative to, you know, a couple of years ago where I wasn't staking as aggressively during the season.
28:04
I didn't care as much about, you know, my, you know, my capital in pocket. Ah, I was a lot more s- inclined to play stuff like alt win totals and things like that. Nowadays I'm...
28:14
If I, you know, if, if it's not like kind of in the at least in the 10 to 1 range where I think that fare should be closer to like two to one or three to one, ah, or if it's in the 30 to 1 range and I think fare should be closer to 10 to 1, then I'm, I'm probably passing.
28:28
Hmm. How do you feel about the preseason? I- is that something that you bet? Are, are you still kind of, you know, working your way to the regular season at that point? I've heard multiple different opinions.
28:38
I think the one that I, I like the most is for, for me, I know there's value there, I just, I'm not ready to bet yet. I'm not at that point where I'm ready to start firing, and so I'm just... I, I pass.
28:49
Where do you stand on the preseason? Ah, preseason there are a couple of pretty tried and true angles that I play every year.
28:55
Ah, some of them are pretty s- pretty fr- not fragile, but they're only like three or four bites of the apple so we won't really go there.
29:03
But, ah, I will tell you the, um, there is a couple of clear and obvious EV, ah, edges, ah, that are kind of macro that are still not really very well capitalized by the market. And the first and obvious one is teasers.
29:16
Um, margins in the preseason are smaller. Um, the fact that, ah, just in general there's no, you know, there's, there's no, um, ah, padding a lead [laughs] in the preseason- Yeah... right?
29:29
And, ah, and in general, ah, if you, you know, the, the steam which is 100% information based as opposed to steam in the regular season which is a lot of the time opinion based, information based steam is more signal than, than opinion steam.
29:43
It just is. And ah, so if you have some favorites that steam from say minus two to minus four and a half or five, just teasing them back across three hits at like an 80 plus percent rate. And so- Wow...
29:57
ah, in general, like you can play teaser legs in the preseason which in the regular season make you look like an absolute donkey. [laughs] And they're plus EV. Yeah.
30:06
And so you can kind of set yourself up well by teasing across zero in the preseason and, ah, you know- Wow... kind of looking like an idiot when in fact that's an actual plus EV bet.
30:17
I promise you, if I ever tweeted out a pic of me teasing a cross zero in a pre-season game- [laughs]... I would get hammered by people. Oh.
30:25
Even if it is plus EV, it's just the, it's just the perception of it, right, Drew? Of course. Yeah.
30:31
The per- if you wanna talk about weird perception, there's like a weird, like, contingent of people who every year come out of the woodwork and they're like, "If you're betting pre-season football, you've got a problem."
30:40
Yeah. Which I think is- You know? It's like- But that, that's the wrong opinion. That's the wrong opinion. [laughs] Yeah. The, the, the proper opinion- Yeah...
30:45
is I don't have time or I'm not ready to bet yet, but there's absolutely value there if you do your homework. Of course.
30:51
And like, I guess I have a lot of con- I have a lot of controversial takes about pre-season football betting in general.
30:56
Like, y- you know, there are certain information angles, like if a, if a group who, you know, who's especially well capitalized or sp- has, like, you know, 10,000 subscribers or whatever, if they're releasing plays because they know that a quarterback's gonna get a full first half as opposed to just a couple of drives, like, and it's gonna steam from pick 'em to f- four, right?
31:17
Like, y- you know, like you look at that and you could say, "Well, you know, if, if you didn't know it before it happened, if you, if you weren't part of the move, then you missed your chance," like, there's usually still some meat on the bone- Yeah...
31:29
even after these monster steams in the pre-season.
31:32
And, you know, in general, when it, when it stops, a lot of times it's just, like, people who sit there and, you know, were part of the original move are like, "Okay, well, that's enough. We probably got a middle here.
31:42
Let's take it," right? [laughs] Like, that's sometimes, that's the resistance. It's not necessarily as much as a, "This has gone, oh, this- Yeah... has gone too far overboard now." [laughs] Like, nobody knows.
31:52
Like, there's no, like, realistic, like, kind of actual cap on how much it ought to move.
31:57
Um, and so I think in general, like, uh, you know, the- there are fun stuff that you can kind of bet into, even if you d- aren't the first person with information on a given quarterback availability or coaching plan, uh, for a pre-season game.
32:12
And I think, um, you know, kind of find, you know, other, the other kind of key point here is if you're just betting with your gut on s- of a Sunday night football game th- 30 minutes before kick, that's degenerate behavior.
32:23
Yeah. [laughs] If you are- That's more degenerate than the pre-season...
32:26
if you're, if you're reading some beat reporter, you know, like, kind of specific, you know, notes that are hard to find on some website behind a paywall about who, you know, like, who the, the third quarter quarterback's gonna be and you make a bet based on that, like, that's, that's handicapping.
32:42
Yes. That's what it is. And so, you know, I, I, it, it's all kind of funny how it's all viewed, but, uh, yeah, I- It's no different than handicapping the horse race, the 5K cross country, right? Yeah, of course.
32:51
Like, it's information that probably not a lot of people have access to. Of course. It's the same thing. [laughs] Of course. So yeah, funny how people, uh, you know, view this sort of stuff.
33:00
But, uh, yeah, pre-season football, uh, is, uh, is a great time to kinda just in general play some macro angles that, uh, get you warmed up for, uh, the, the real thing.
33:09
And, uh, yeah, and just in general, uh, you know, you, you will learn stuff. Uh, you know, there was pretty clear sign last year that the Texans offense had a lot- Yeah...
33:17
more chemistry going than you would've expected with a rookie quarterback in the pre-season. You would only know that if you watched the games. Great stuff.
33:23
Drew Dincic, the pre-season, as much as I love the Olympics, I am so jacked up for the NFL pre-season. [laughs] It's starting this week. We appreciate the time, pal. Hey, best of luck, guys. Enjoy.
33:33
Go follow him on X @whale_capper. Incredible insight, not only on the Olympics, but that NFL pre-season stuff was gold, pun intended. More Numbers Game on the other side.
33:50
A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Hey, go to vsin.com right now. I am currently on an NFL Hall of Fame Game preview posted, uh, yesterday by Steve Makinen, and I'll be honest, this is very detailed.
34:05
He has the history of every Hall of Fame Game dating back to 2000, including a ton of news, notes on this year's Hall of Fame Game, which will be played, I believe, between the Texans and the Bears.
34:16
Uh, so you'll see, maybe you'll see Caleb Williams this week, but really good stuff. Of course, all that is available to you at vsin.com. Um, real excited to talk a little college football coming up in our next segment.
34:29
Uh, Pete Fiutak. I'm, don't know if I'm pronouncing- Yep, Pete Fiutak, yeah... his last name correctly. Pete Fiutak's coming on.
34:33
Uh, Paul Sporer from, uh, FanGraphs also on, uh, in our next hour to talk baseball trade deadline.
34:38
Of course, today have not heard anything yet besides the news that came last night, which we updated a little earlier in the show.
34:44
But I quickly w- quickly want to, uh, touch up again what we just heard from Drew Dincic, who, I mean, again, i- you know, the Olympics stuff aside, which is obviously very unique and, and, and very actionable today, but the NFL stuff is really where, um, I, I, I think i- is, is, is really fascinating.
35:03
So the teasers are always a thing that is, I don't wanna say becoming a hot button topic. It has been, the pricing structure has been a hot button topic for a number of years now.
35:15
Uh, Kelly and I were going back and forth during the break. If I recall, there was still a shop in town that gave you 20 cent teasers on a six pointer.
35:24
Um, I am unaware if they still exist [laughs] because the, it changes constantly. We'll find out in a couple weeks. Yeah, I just checked.
35:32
Uh, uh, the, uh, there's not many, like, you know, teasers or buy a half a point options up right now, uh, Jared- No, they don't want you to manipulate lines... 'cause we're, we're talking about price comparison.
35:39
[laughs] They don't want you to manipulate lines. But the- I, I think Caesars and William Hill went to 125 last season, but I can't remember. You might be right. I don't remember.
35:47
I made a lot of bets between now and then. I also think Wynn was right around there too, but I don't even have a Wynn account. Wynn, Wynn was right. I have a Wynn account, I can check it.
35:52
Um, but again, I don't know if the teasers are up yet for the season. I think that's the issue. So the pre-season teasers is not something I've ever considered.
36:01
I've never considered teasing a pre-season number based off of the steam. And listen, it, it makes sense from a, a, a strategy standpoint.
36:13
I, I really liked how he kind of detailed that when you get moves in the pre-season- It's more signal than noise. What does that mean? Noise is sometimes numbers move just based off of ratings and opinions.
36:26
Really, opinions. Ratings get changed throughout the course of the week. Some of those ratings are based off of actual models, but some of them too are manual adjustments.
36:35
And then bets are made off of the opinions week to week. The preseason, it's more information-based. Kinda like the NFL draft.
36:43
Guy gets announced as the starting quarterback, this guy gets benched, this guy's gonna be moved here, and the numbers move considerably based off of that information.
36:54
Well, if a number moves from two to four, right, minus two to minus four, doesn't really make a whole lot of sense to play to four.
37:01
But if let's say multiple teams go from minus two to minus four, or minus two and a half to minus six and a half, like let's say it's a big move. Well, yeah, what,
37:14
what's stopping us from, from, from teasing that number back down? I think the more controversial opinion is teasing through zero. Mm.
37:20
Which I have always been told if you do it, you're gonna get not only clowned, but they're gonna take your gambling card away- [laughs]... and you're gonna have to move to Saskatchewan. Like- Eh...
37:30
w- would you ever do that? Like, I, I- Go roughriders... I would get, I, I would be scared of the opinion. I don't like, I usually don't care about what other people think. I might care about that.
37:38
[laughs] I think it's, I think it's interesting. I, what, what surprised me there was not that he brought up teasers, but that he brought up that situation. That's a unique situation.
37:51
Because I thought he would, as soon as he brought it up, I was like, "Okay, I know where he's going here."
37:54
I was like, "Where he's going here is he's gonna talk about low totals, so therefore you're getting more- Low totals, yeah...
37:59
uh, because low total, you're getting m- you're getting more value out of teasing the number up." That makes sense. Um, but you know, he's- Totals are always pretty low in the preseason though. Right.
38:06
They're usually in the 30s for the most part. Yeah, so if you can tease a two and a half up to an eight and a half, right, you're getting even more value off that.
38:12
We talked about that all last season, while the totals just kept dropping, dropping, dropping- Yeah... um, during the regular season.
38:18
But, you know, that, that's not where Drew we- uh, Drew went with, um, you know, going, going to that minus four that's been steamed up because you know some information's still worth, uh, you know, maybe not laying that full four, but figuring out a way to get back under that three.
38:32
I do th- I, I think it's interesting, and I think there are a lot of things, we were just talking during the break, there's a lot of things that are just kind of frowned upon, uh, from the betting community, that you can still use some of these different bets to manipulate numbers in your advantage.
38:44
And- Yeah... like, one of the ones you and I were kicking around is, like I've had this conversation with multiple people too about- Yeah, we sh- we need to go there with this...
38:50
yeah, about like th- you know, when you're talking how expensive it's gotten to buy a half point in the NFL, and you're sitting at a three and a half that you just can't s- can't start s- uh, stop staring at, and you wanna lay it.
39:01
You don't wanna lay three and a half though, you wanna lay three.
39:04
And like I've heard, you know, like people that I respect, you know, tie those into two point, uh, two team six point teasers if there's another leg that week they really love, and that's a tease through the zero situation that a lot of people would be, uh, you know, pretty grossed out over, [laughs] I think.
39:19
So, um, I think it's fascinating. I don't think that there is... I, a lot of this stuff, we talk about the, what we think is the best way to do it.
39:29
It doesn't always mean that there's a c- a 100% black and white right and wrong answer to every different situation. Well, the math guys will tell you something different.
39:37
Like when we talk to Steve Fezzik, who's an actu- l- literally an actuary. Mm. When I say his brain is a computer, I'm not kidding. It's crazy, actually.
39:46
But the math guys will tell you something very differently with teasers. They have the strongest opinions. 'Cause let's be honest, at the end of the day, it's all numbers. Mm-hmm.
39:56
Whereas some of the ratings and some of the power ratings are, can be manually tweaked based off of things that happen, which is where some of the opinion and some of the discourse starts.
40:10
Whereas the teasers are strictly a math equation, and that's where you get a really strong opinion from the actuarial community about what is positive expectation. I'm not a math guy.
40:22
I, I play one on TV sometimes when I get fed really good numbers, but that's not my cup of tea. I, I am not, [laughs] I am not an actuary. I am not someone who has that kind of, uh, computer science type brain.
40:35
I trust Drew's, uh, his, you know, his numbers, and if he's telling me that there's value somewhere, I'm gonna look.
40:43
Um, I'm not gonna s- go as far as to say that I'm gonna make it like a best bet of the week, but yeah, maybe that's something. 'Cause I've never been, I've never been a big preseason bettor- Mm...
40:56
because the r- at the time when the information is coming out, I am still warming up. It's kinda like running a marathon before you've even run a 5K. When the preseason is happening, I am training.
41:11
I am warming up for the gauntlet of the regular season. I am doing all of those things that Drew said he was doing, which is going through all the numbers.
41:20
Now I'm doing them a lot later than I probably should, but I'm not a professional gambler that derives his income from betting.
41:25
In May, June, July and Al- in May, June and July, when Drew's doing that first stage of the equation, I'm doing nerfy stuff. Like I have my focus elsewhere. So
41:35
in, in August, when I can actually see these teams and there's news and I can actually get into a rhythm of a week that kind of mirrors what a, a regular season week looks like, I'm warming up.
41:47
I'm not ready to fire away. That doesn't mean there's not value, but personally me, I'm not ready to start hitting the trigger.
41:55
But maybe if I can react to some of the moves that I'm seeing, because th- th- that's the reason that I don't bet in, a lot in the preseason. I'm not as proactive. In the regular season, I'm proactive.
42:06
My numbers are ready, I'm doing the shows, I'm good to go. I've seen the teams, I know what happened last week. It's a system, it's a rhythm, it's a timing, it's a cadence. In the preseason, I'm still learning that.
42:16
But if you can do something to where, hey, this number just moved three points because this starter is playing, and I can still bet that game even after the move- I don't have to do as much work.
42:30
It might not be a positive expectation at the end of the day, but at least I can make some bets and get involved in a way that I'm being told by a professional handicapper who I trust- Yeah...
42:38
that's not the dumbest way to get involved. So maybe that's something I dabble with this year. I have never, ever teased a preseason game in my entire life, I don't think. Definitely not through zero.
42:48
Maybe I've teased at some point in the past. Right, yeah.
42:51
You know, a, a traditional teaser, like a Wong teaser, I have ne- because I've always been told if you tease through zero, you're a dullard and you're gonna have to go move to Siberia- [laughs]...
42:58
'cause you're not, they're not gonna want, they're not gonna trust your opinion anymore. Um, yeah, I, I brought it up yesterday.
43:02
I do think when you're, if you're attacking, you know, looking to bet preseason, I, I, I do think y- well, mo- one of the most important areas to start with is just that quarterback depth chart and who you're gonna see.
43:11
Yes. And that's, but that's also a lot of, you know, what Drew's bringing up, i- information. What are you getting, right?
43:15
It is really mainly information on playing time, um, you know, for, you know, starters or backups or, you know, and then specifically quarterbacks, what are they doing, um, you know, for a half, for a quarter?
43:26
So I, I think there's al- it's always worth going through before the preseason begins, in my opinion.
43:31
Like, I was doing some of this yesterday, circling, okay, head coaches and then quarterback rooms that you think, uh, you know, could be profitable during the preseason. One thing that kinda, uh- That's a good idea...
43:41
shocked me a little bit yesterday, Jared, was, like, we'd always bring up these coaches that you're like, "Okay," like John Harbaugh takes it real serious. Like, he's something like 40- Faith into the number...
43:50
and 19 ATS in the preseason. Faith into the number by now, I think. But, like, there's not really anybody else like that anymore.
43:55
Like, he- there always used to be him and, like, a couple others that you're like, "Well, they've only been around for, like, four years, but they've done pretty well in the, uh, in the preseason."
44:03
There are not that many other coaches that you could really be like, "Well, this is that guy," besides John Harbaugh. Quarterback rooms, I think there are a few. Minnesota intrigues me, as you can see.
44:12
Minnesota definitely is intriguing. Darnold, J.J. McCarthy, Nick Mullens is their third-stringer. Like, you could do a lot worse at third string than Nick Mullens. Handicapping third-string quarterbacks is an art form.
44:23
Catch the fever. We'll get a little college football on the other side, Pete Fewsmith. Big 10, what's gonna happen this year? A numbers game. [upbeat music]
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