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Jul 30, 2026
A Numbers Game | July 30, 2026 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | July 30, 2026 | Hour 2
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45:15
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat rock music] The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
[upbeat rock music] Hour number two of Numbers Game here on a Thursday. Matt Brown in for Gil. Kelly Bidlin alongside, watching some golf getting played as Peter Malnati just throws dart after dart after dart after dart.
0:21
He's already nine under. He's about to be 10 under. He's got a kick in, and I- when I say kick in, he could probably kick it in. Yes, he could. He'll probably kick it in. Could. I could kick it in. Yeah.
0:30
Certainly one of the guys from the world. Actually, you know what? Unless it was a penalty kick, they would miss that. Like, somehow you miss the giant goal on the penalty kicks.
0:38
You ever seen the, you ever seen the soccer golf? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It's a thing. Yeah. It's a thing. It is a thing. You just kick it down the fair- I don't really know how I feel about it, but...
0:45
Yeah, you just kick it down the fairway or whatever. You just, yeah. And all. It's a soccer ball, and yeah. Yeah. You just basically a golf course, but it's got a big- It is... big green, big hole up there. It is.
0:53
Yeah, it is what it is. See, see, I get the, like, the side view of you. The m- you got the m- the manly, you got the m- manly chest hair thing going on there. Yeah, that's right. Th- this is a- Yeah...
1:02
this is a tricky second button shirt. Yeah, I get- I don't really know where- I, I get the side view, so it's- It's, it's, it's either real open or real tight. Yeah. Yeah, and so you s- You know?
1:08
You don't really know where to go with, so. I, I, I think you made the right decision. Yeah. Just, just saying. I mean, you know, you s- you're Play- You, you get a little uncomfortable- Just a Playboy over there...
1:15
when the chest hair is really pumping out, I know. Just a, just a Play- just a Playboy over there, man. It's fine. [laughs] It's, you look like y- y- look, you need to be in Florida.
1:21
That needs to be pink, and you need to be in Florida. I know. That's right, man. That's all you need right there. You're my coral.
1:25
We didn't, uh, we didn't talk about some of the NFL news from yesterday, which I think is somewhat important. Not all that important from a betting standpoint, but maybe you find angles in all of this.
1:35
I mean, if you believe that running backs are important, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs are both holding in, as is apparently Chris Olave as well for the- Oh, really?
1:45
Yeah, apparently as well as Chris Olave, I guess, um, with this. Now, Saquon makes 20.6 million a year.
1:53
I think that if you're Bijan and you're Jahmyr Gibbs, you think you're worth at least what the highest paid running back is worth.
1:59
And so my guess is, is their demands are probably not outrageous, but probably at least what Saquon is getting. Yep. And I think if you're Atlanta and Detroit, especially given the fact that, like, what's...
2:12
I mean, the salary cap's gonna go up another... I mean, it, the, the trajectory that's going on, it goes up, like, 20 million a year. I mean, it's gonna, like, go up another 20 million next year.
2:20
If you give another two million bucks, another three million bucks to these guys to make them happy, I, I don't, I don't think it's the end of the world.
2:26
I, I mean, especially considering they're both still young and whatever. It's not like, it's not like you're trying to give a 29-year-old running back the money that they think they deserve.
2:33
Yeah, I- You know what I'm saying? I think it is v- well- Well-... well-timed to buy Bijan and Jahmyr Gibbs. Yeah. And yeah, I would expect both to get paid and move on. Yeah, and just move on.
2:41
Like, get them out on the field and let's go. I mean, these are, these are, these are two teams that, that think that they can do it. Mm-hmm. So what are you doing? Like, just, just, just give them the money.
2:48
Unless- I, I mean, I think Bijan Robinson could easily make the case he's the b- most valuable player at that position in the NFL. And if, if you're Jahmyr Gibbs, you're, A, not far behind. I, I would say not far behind.
2:58
Mm-hmm. But, but behind. But they just shipped out David Montgomery, too. Like, this is [laughs] like you got, you got the team right where you want it for negotiating purposes. We are looking at another, you know...
3:09
I mean, not that he was a big part of the defense, 'cause he was basically injured all of, of his rookie season as well, but Shemar Stewart got- Yeah... carted off yesterday for the Cincinnati Bengals.
3:18
That's their 2025 first round pick, if you remember. Might not remember, 'cause he didn't play a ton for them, 'cause he was already hurt.
3:24
So that said, they did sign Mafe a- and whatever, so it's like it's not the end of the world. But you know, you, you'd prefer to have bodies. And so- They went with depth, yep. Yeah, so we'll see.
3:33
Nothing as of right now. They didn't confirm what may or may not have happened or whatever, but it didn't look good. No, it did not, did not. I got another one for you- Mm... 'cause this one did stu- stick out to me.
3:43
Steve tweeting in, uh, to me. "Reports are"... I don't know, I don't know if I saw reports, but I saw this yesterday. "Reports are Malik Nabers could be ready to go week one.
3:50
If so, should he be a look at 45 to one offensive player of the year?" Who's that? Malik Nabers. Uh, funny you say that. Who was out there yesterday. Yeah. I'm gonna be walking to the betting machine, um-
4:04
And betting that? When we get... Well, the number here is quite interesting. [laughs] The, the number here is n- the number here is quite interesting.
4:12
I'm really glad- So, so- I, I really wish you had not had talk, like, read that in between. I was gonna say, see, Steve, what's going on right now is- Yeah... Matt Brown is not happy that you just brought that up.
4:19
[laughs] 'Cause he was wanting to bet that first before talking about it. [laughs] So sorry, Matt. Great to read by Steve. Yes. Yeah, good, good stuff.
4:27
But, uh- I also a- I'll put it this way, I think, I think you're onto something. I think [laughs] I'm onto something. There. I think you're onto something there.
4:33
I did make a bet yesterday on one of the guys I was talking about for offensive player of the year, but this is, uh... Shout out to Boobers- Mm... who had 60 to one out there on, uh, A.J. Brown.
4:41
That made that, uh, thought a little b- a little bit easier. 'Cause it's like I, I was thinking 40 was the best I was gonna get. 60 to one? I'm in. The- Bet that yesterday...
4:49
we were, we were here as the, uh, the scuffle was going down at Bengals camp as well, invol- involving Ja'Marr Chase, which you just- Yes... don't wanna see. Yeah.
4:57
They asked Joe Burrow about it later, in which he said, [laughs] "If you could maybe just punch someone in the face, and then 20 seconds later you get back lined up and get back to practice, that's probably ideal."
5:06
[laughs] So he's like, "Just get mad and hit each other, and then just, like, get back and start practicing again." Yeah, yeah, yeah. Like, you know? So. Get angry, take it out. Yeah. Get back to work.
5:14
Burrow g- with the jokes. He's got jokes. He- Joe Burrow... he's a hilarious guy. Chris Boswell tore his LCL for the Panthers.
5:23
Um, this is a receiver they thought was probably going to give them some help and some depth here. So that was a third round pick out of Tennessee.
5:30
Might have gone a little bit higher, but just a little bit off the field stuff and things going on with him. But, uh, looks like he'll be out at least for some, some, uh, length of time there.
5:40
And then on day one, I don't believe it for a second, Kelly Bidlin, but on day one, Kyler Murray and J.J. McCarthy split snaps evenly. How long can this possibly last for?
5:51
So on day one of camp, Murray and McCarthy split snaps evenly. Uh, good tee shot, Brett Keegan. Let's, uh, let's kick that one in. Mm. Uh, the- Like, O'Connell, I get it, but two-time coach of the year? One time?
6:07
He's just a one-timer, right? Yeah. Um, I get it, you're trying to build the kid's confidence a- and, and set him up so that when he is on the bench, he doesn't completely lose the conf- Yeah.
6:17
I get it, but like, he know. We know what's going on. He knows what's going on. Everybody knows what's going on. So- At a certain point, you're just costing Kyler Murray snaps with the first team offense.
6:26
They did a prediction piece on ESPN. They got, like, five of their different NFL insiders, including the Vikings beat reporter. All six of them said they fully expect Kyler Murray to be the starter- Yeah...
6:37
and all that, which from a betting standpoint, if you want Kyler in Comeback Player of the Year, or if you want a super long shot for MVP, or if you want anything to do with the Vikings and all of that, you might wanna do that here in the next...
6:52
I don't... I, I mean, look, if they're splitting reps right now, they're probably gonna do that at least for, at least for a few more days, but
6:57
sometime in the next week you probably wanna get that Viking stuff in your account.
7:00
Because once they officially announce Kyler, there'll be at least a little, enough buzz for Comeback Player of the Year type stuff, and Viking stuff, whatever, that the, the number will move.
7:09
I don't know how much it will move- Mm-hmm... but it will move enough to where you'll be like, "Ah, man, I should've done that four days ago," or, "I should've done that five days ago."
7:16
So if you do like any Kyler stuff or any Viking stuff, I'd probably go ahead and do it today or tomorrow. I think... No, that's a good call. It's a good call. I don't know if I...
7:25
'Cause you know I've, I've been eyeing up- Mm... uh, Viking stuff, for sure. So that, that is definitely something I'm gonna look harder at today.
7:32
I don't know if I agree as much on Kyler moving as much in comeback, just because it's, it's so stacked at the top with the quarterbacks, right? Like, maybe that moves 10, 20 cents, something.
7:43
Well, the thing is is he's just so long that people might look at it as, like, an opportunity to get a long shot in their account with a starter. I mean, listen, getting a- He's 550...
7:51
getting a, getting a, a starting quarterback in any capacity, even though he is going up against some of these other bigger names, getting a starting quarterback at any capacity in your account at a, at a long shot for that award specifically is, is definitely worth it.
8:06
And so that's why I just think, like, maybe that 50 becomes 38 or something, 42. He- No, he's shorter than that. In, in comeback? Yeah. Yeah, he's short. He's, he's like five to one. Oh, okay.
8:18
He's five- Yeah, yeah, he's just pa- he's past Jayden. This is what... R- remember we were talking the other day- Yeah... of, like, I... If I had to bet Comeback Player of the Year right now, it'd be...
8:25
I, I would do the old Dutch bet and bet 'em all. Yeah. I, I would bet Mahomes, Jayden Daniels, Kyler Murray, and just... I mean, you're gonna have... It's gonna be worse than even money.
8:34
You basically have 95% of the win equity covered. That's what I would think. You would think. Or you could throw Daniel Jones in there too if you want. He's 20 to one. Yeah.
8:43
Although maybe this is a market that Malik Nabers just got more interesting in. Perhaps, but he's not gonna overtake a quarterback. I'm with you. Yeah. I don't know.
8:50
He's not gonna overtake a quarter- or all those quarterbacks. It'd be different if it was one quarterback, but it's four quarterbacks.
8:55
I think if you're betting that market, for me the ea- if I had to bet at preseason, that's exactly what I would do. I'd just bet all four of the damn quarterbacks. Uh, but I will wait.
9:03
You know I love betting this market. Mm. I'll just wait, 'cause if one or two of these guys get injured or their team sucks, like, there's probably gonna be two of these guys that pull away from the pack a little bit.
9:11
I don't mind betting one guy at, at worse odds than this. To add on to Kelly's deal, so Daniel Jones did get fully cleared. He will be out there.
9:18
Another guy that answers a question from one of us fir- that we had earlier in the week, Bo Nix was a full participant- Mm... as well. So Bo Nix is out there. Mm-hmm.
9:27
Fractured his ankle, if you remember, on January the 17th. Had to have two different surgeries on that ankle, but was out there.
9:35
Sean Payton, "I'm pleased with the shape he's in and the timeline relative to everything we discussed injury-wise, has fallen into place perfectly. It's good to have him back out here for, uh, for the team."
9:46
So I mean, a- again, we were wondering. Hey, listen, defense is stacked still. Yep. You bring in an extra weapon for him. He played better than anyone thought when he was actually in there.
9:56
The only question was is was he gonna be healthy, and he didn't even have to miss a single day, uh, of camp, so he's out there day one. It's huge. Yeah.
10:02
I, I mean, so these quarterbacks recovering and getting back is just, it's, it's wild. I, I mean, not even just the quarterbacks, everybody, right? Nabers we're talking about.
10:10
Uh, just how many guys did you see at camp yesterday where you're like [laughs] "Man, we thought they w- when they got hurt, we thought either for sure or 90-plus percent chance we were not gonna be seeing them- Mm-hmm...
10:21
week one, much less a month earlier in camp." Yeah, then the, some other stuff just, like...
10:27
I mean, I understand the schedule's pretty easy and all that, but, like, this Detroit secondary we need to start kinda like looking at. I mean, Kirby Joseph probably not gonna be out there to start the season.
10:36
They had to release Terry Arnold, remember? Mm-hmm. Because of all of the off-field stuff with him. Brian Branch was on, is on phys- well, got put on PUP yester- uh, two days ago.
10:45
A- Feels like there's a Panther that goes down every day. There's just... Yeah, so yeah. [laughs] What, what was it, uh, who was it that went down? Linebacker yesterday I think, right? Yeah, yeah, something like that.
10:54
Um, so again- Oh, boy...
10:55
just notes here of, of things that it doesn't jump off the page because it's not a quarterback or a wide receiver or whatever, but I mean, you know, kind of a cluster injury before the season starts in the secondary for the Lions is, is certainly not where you wanna begin your, your campaign, right?
11:09
[upbeat music] Yeah. Sec- second year edge Nick Scorton, ACL injury, done for the year- Mm... for the, uh, Panthers yesterday. And then just kind of a little, uh, a little RIP thing.
11:18
Not a, not a RIP, he didn't die, but you know what I mean. It's, it's a death i- in metaphorical sense. [upbeat music] Taysom Hill will not be back with the Saints. Yeah.
11:26
They're gonna call it a, they're gonna call it a, they're gonna high-five here, um, nine seasons in, and, uh, he, he's either...
11:32
He has not said whether he's gonna retire or go play somewhere else, but he just knows it will not be with the Saints. Interesting timing, I thought. Yeah.
11:40
Right, for, if, if, if, assuming he wants to keep playing, I thought it was interesting. Saints fans rejoice, though. Guy was getting too many touches. AFC South when we come back.
11:47
[upbeat music] You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real. Mindset alone doesn't get bets home.
11:58
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12:07
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12:23
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat rock music] Numbers game here on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:41
People, I, I'm getting- You're getting tweets, man... interesting- I'll tell you, I'm gonna carry over a conversation from yesterday. I'm getting a little heated about it 'cause I've, they've faked me out twice now.
12:49
Y- the announcer-less golf might be cool, but if we're gonna have no announcers out there, we better get the graphics right, and we're screwing up score graphics. Well, this isn't the, this is not the feed. That's fine.
12:59
I don't care. In- I want- In general... actually- In general, we gotta be getting graphics right... actually, I do wanna see the feed though, so remind me to. You know what?
13:06
I'm gonna write- Larry Murphy would never let this happen... I'm gonna write myself a note and say, "Silent feed," and then we'll, on the next break, we'll pull it up and see what we think. Okay. Yeah, if we remember.
13:15
We probably won't. Keegan Bradley. Okay, is he, is he three shots back or is he four shots back? Now that, now that graphic just changed. Keegan Bradley, either six under par or five under par. Here's the deal.
13:26
It's the last one. They're not investing, all right? [laughs] It, it, like, the, there's, the last Rocket Classic. So, wait- All right?... e- even for the television broadcast- Yeah, they just-... we're not investing?
13:35
They're not, they're not in- they're not investing as much money in this one. They're like, "L- they're... Listen, we're done with this." Apparently everything for the Rocket Classic- Yeah...
13:42
this week just got the B team- We're outta here... or the C team or whatever. Yeah, we're done with this. What are, w- come on. Everybody who really w- actually, this kinda makes sense.
13:49
Everybody who really does this is on vacation right now. They- Yeah... they've had a long golf season. Yeah. They're, they're on a beach somewhere before school starts back up with their kids.
13:56
And they know that, and they know that, you know, they still have the championships and all that, so, like, they'll have to go grind that as well. I was like, I don't, I don't need the graphics department screwing me up.
14:04
Keegan Bradley will handle that himself. Like, he, he can't hit a fairway now. He's making birdies, but he can't hit a fairway. [laughs] Oh, this is so great.
14:13
I w- w- we're, we're betting golf, and it's, like, not even a tournament that we care about all that much, but, you know. I mean, no, but you know. It's a sweat. You gotta action, man. A sweat is a sweat is a sweat.
14:21
Yeah, I know. It is. A sweat is a sweat. AFC South, an very interesting division, kinda top to bottom. Yesterday we were sitting here saying that we saw reports coming through that there are, what was...
14:32
It was positive talks with C.J. Stroud? Is that what it... Does that, how- Yeah... is that how they described it? Yeah, yeah, yeah, that's what, that, that... I believe that is what I read as well.
14:40
They, they, they described them as positive discussions. Positive discussions is what they were saying for extending C.J. Stroud with the Texans, and, you know, I think that there is at least a- Productive... productive.
14:53
I think there's at least a contingent of fans who might say, like, "Man, let's not rush to anything right now. Let's-" Well, I mean, if you are a Texans fan- Let's not rush to anything...
15:02
th- th- you are taking the approach absolutely of, like, how do we somehow play out this season? Now, I understand that the line had questions, and certainly there were some injuries along the way. Tank Dell goes down.
15:14
Nico Collins had to miss a few games and stuff like that, but again, we keep going to these rating systems. There were 38 qualifiers last year in the NFL. C.J. Stroud, 31st out of 38. Mm-hmm. And, and again- Mm-hmm...
15:28
there were problems that had to be dealt with. They had no run game to speak of- Right... either. If you guys remember the whole weird thing with Mixon, where it was like- Enter Montgomery.
15:38
Yeah, it was like- Yeah, Mixon. He was weird. It was like, it was like, "Oh, okay, he's gonna miss the first month." Then it was like, "Eh, he's gonna miss more time." And then, uh, he didn't play at all. Yeah.
15:44
He, he didn't play the whole, the whole season. Uh, but you do get Montgomery in, which moves Woody Marks into more of a secondary role, which probably fits him better. Mm-hmm. He's probably not the bell cow type guy.
15:55
Yeah, I, yeah. I think so. So- I actually think they're probably a pretty good pairing back there. So then you get, you do get Tank Dell back, and then- Which is just another wild one, Matt Yeah...
16:04
of like these guys that are good to go day one. I wasn't expecting- Mm... day one from him. Yeah, rock and roll.
16:09
Jaden Higgins is probably gonna fill the, the wide receiver two role there on the outside, and of course Nico Collins, one of the best receivers in all the league. Dalton Schultz is certainly a- Mm-hmm...
16:19
in, at least in that upper tier- He's a good, he's a good tight end. Yeah... of tight ends there. They tried to redo this line. Uh, I don't know how it'll pan out. They bring in Wyatt Teller.
16:29
Wyatt Teller kind of on the tail end of his career, but at least he's better than what they've been throwing out there because if you, if you were a Texans bettor last year, you were probably screaming at the TV multiple occasions because C.J.
16:41
Stroud had, like,.7 seconds to throw the ball- Mm-hmm... on sever- on, on too many occasions.
16:46
And so they at least tried to do something to this line as well, Kelly, and then that said, you go to the other side of the ball, and it's just a very loaded defense. I mean, like- It's incredible...
16:58
two good corners, uh, great defensive line, great linebackers.
17:02
If you want to point at one hole, maybe you can look at Reed Blankenship at safety and say that, "Okay, well, he might be at least a little bit of a liability," but I mean, by and large, this is like nine out of the 11 are
17:16
upper-upper shelf guys, and, and then maybe if you wanna kinda nitpick two other ones. But this is a absolutely loaded, stout defense that we talked about that with some of these other teams.
17:28
It at least raises the floor of this team because you're never gonna get housed. Unless C.J., unless C.J. Stroud's throwing three pick sixes a game or something- Mm-hmm...
17:36
you're never gonna get blown out because his defense isn't gonna allow it to happen.
17:39
Yeah, I, I think it's a very similar conversation, uh, to what we had with Denver, uh, as far as where they stack in the AFC and in, in the division.
17:46
I think this, the defense is so good, and I, honestly, I think they're probably only getting better, right? Yeah. I mean, some of these younger guys are just getting older, right?
17:55
I think Reed Blankenship is perfectly fine adding him in here. I, uh, I think interesting note by you, but, you know, a v- a veteran guy from a, coming from a successful, uh, Philadelphia defense.
18:05
I think he, I think he'll slot in here okay. Mm-hmm. Um, [smacks lips] and, and this is, it just, it becomes all what you think about the offensive side of the ball, and main- mainly C.J. Stroud.
18:13
But, like, we talked, we, we both liked Denver, uh, i- in the West.
18:19
I think in the South here, just with the weaker competition for the Texans to go up against, man, this is a team I think I've bet on three years in a row to win this division.
18:28
I, I don't know that I'll be back there again this year, Matt. I haven't made that bet yet.
18:33
But it's every time I g- circle back and start digging into this team and this division more, it's just this d- the Texans defense, Texans defense. It's only gonna let them slip so far.
18:42
Yeah, it's a, it's a, it's a team for me that it's, it's hard to get too excited about with Stroud at quarterback, but it's also too hard for me to get too down on because of the defense, right? Right, right.
18:55
It's, it's, it's like, it's just, it's almost impossible. You look at this t- at this... Dude, they only gave up 277 yards a game last, last season. Mm-hmm. I mean, that's, that's insane. Like, 277 yards a game.
19:07
That is, that is crazy talk. So they do have... This is gonna be, if you go back two years, four of the five offensive linemen have been switched out, uh, f- from two years ago. Yeah.
19:19
So when you're talking about a team that gave up 63 sacks, then there's at least some, I would say, hope, belief, right? That a different combination- Mm-hmm... can help fix things. And I, I do think it's...
19:29
I, I don't think we're unfair to C.J. Stroud. I think he's been in a difficult spot the, though these past couple seasons- I-... with that offensive line... agree 100%, and I will say this.
19:38
As a franchise, I at least do the tip of the cap, I do this all the time. At least you understood where your weakness was and you're trying. Mm-hmm.
19:44
Now, there wasn't a huge free agent crop of offensive linemen available. Yeah. So, like, they kinda had to do what they had to do. Wyatt Teller, the Braden Smith is gonna play right tackle for them.
19:53
He's a middling guy, but I mean, he's better than what they had. Mm-hmm. It's kind of that type of deal, right? Right, right.
19:56
It's like, at least they understood we have a very, very obvious weakness, which is our offensive line. We've got to do something, so at least they went and did something.
20:04
A- and I think where we're at now with that, though, is, is, is it's not only if you, if, if you can get better off- offensive line play, you can truly get a better idea of where C.J. Stroud is really at. Mm-hmm.
20:14
But then I think we're another year later here in this process, Matt, and this team dev- getting developed and built. Like, do we really know how good Higgins or Noel is, like, on the outside- Mm-hmm... right?
20:23
Like, I think these are, those are two, those are two wide receivers came in as rookies last year, and had to play in that offense, and continued, had to struggle behind an offensive line.
20:31
It's just th- there is a world, I think, where if this offensive line is solid, this offense gets unlocked completely. If you, uh, look at the schedule for this team, and I look at this and say, okay,
20:44
right out of the gate, this is... And I know we've s- said this probably about too many teams so far. This is absolutely a calendar team, and it's just come buy in after week two. Like, come in and buy in- Mm, yeah...
20:55
in week three, and then go from there. They're very likely to lose to the Bills, and it's certainly gonna be a very tough game against Cincinnati. Mm. But then after that,
21:05
Colts, Cowboys, Titans, Jags, Giants, and then you get a bye. I'm not as high on the Chargers as most people are, so I'm not worried so much about that game. Chargers, Browns, Colts again.
21:14
You can start rattling off some wins there after that first couple of weeks, but you're gonna get a,
21:20
probably, knock on wood, I know that training camp can do whatever, the healthiest version of Cincinnati you're gonna get. Yeah. You, you get them in week two. Yeah.
21:27
So, like, you know, you're gonna get a healthy version of that, and then obviously you get the Bills in week one. Come back in in week three. Even if they start 0 and 2, I still like this team to, to win games. Yeah.
21:37
I think pr- I think probably a pretty good chance they split those two. Yeah. But I hear you. Sure. I, I hear you. I wouldn't be considering... If you're, if you're bullish on this team, wait till then, for sure.
21:45
And obviously we're gonna hit on every one of the teams, but I guess the sh- the, the thing that really stood out to me the most of this when I was just digging into this division, Kelly, is I guess I just didn't remember...
21:57
It's been a long, you know, it's a long season, and you do whatever, that they were 12 and 5, and the Jags were 13 and 4. I know, man. It's incredible. Like- But we're gonna talk some Jags.
22:07
I fell in love with that team last year. But it's like, do you, do you remember them being 12 and 5 and the Jags being 13 and 4? Uh [laughs], yeah. You know? I, the Jags 13 and 4, not, not as much. I know. Not as much.
22:19
It's just, I, I... That, like, pops up and you go, "This team was 12 and 5? Why was I down on them so hard last year?" And it's like, they, they won 12 games. Uh, including the playoffs, 10 and 9 ATS. Yeah, I mean,
22:34
right? Just a 500 ATS team. Guys, we're talking about this special that we've got. It's 175 bucks. It ends tomorrow, means you need to do it today, 'cause it ends tomorrow. So go in.
22:43
I don't know what this is gonna jump to. This might jump to 715. We might just flip the numbers on that. I don't know. I have no idea what it's gonna be. You never, you never know. But 175 today. We do know that. Mm-hmm.
22:51
Everything we do now through the Super Bowl, vsyn.com/subscribe. All the betting guides. We got the betting splits page we, we know you love. The picks page, you can go and just see what everyone's on.
23:01
We got the prop projections now, a little AI stuff going on. That's right. Everything. Vsyn.com/subscribe. 175 now through the Super Bowl, but only through today.
23:12
[upbeat music] A numbers game on Vsyn, the sports betting network.
23:30
[upbeat music] Kelly, we're sitting here talking about the AFC South. Just talked about the Texans. I like the floor, don't necessarily love the ceiling, I think.
23:44
That said, I will reserve the right to change my opinion should I find out that this offensive line is good enough to give C.J. Stroud what he needs to actually succeed in this offense.
23:55
So I'm gonna kinda s- I'm tucking them over in the wait and see bucket. Mm-hmm. They don't, they're not getting any of my preseason money.
24:02
No, me too, but you, you, you've bet them a couple times in this division- Yeah... over the past few years, right? Yeah, I bet them a couple of times. Okay. Last year- Yeah, me too... last year it was the Jags, though.
24:10
I did, did have the Jags last year. Um- God, I ended up on the Jags, but I don't think I had them before the season. Yeah, it was... And listen, I'm kind of a sucker for the Jazz, I mean, for the Jags as it is anyway.
24:23
I'm a sucker for the Jags and the Jazz. Jags. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I know you love the Jazz. Um, 13 and 4 last year, division champions. Mm-hmm. You look here.
24:33
Just getting a little bit better on both sides of the ball every year. Let's remember, they played half the season without their, their number one pick in Travis Hunter. Mm-hmm. They get him back
24:43
So that can only be a good thing. He's healthy, out there, still I guess gonna try to play him both ways, which I think is just ridiculous. No, I thought they were just going corner now.
24:53
I, I think they said that they're gonna try to, like, get him some specialty little things or whatever. Oh, God. Okay. As long as he's not actually out there running routes a lot, I don't really care. Right.
25:05
No, I'm with you. Uh, y- y- yeah. The little gadget plays or whatever- Whatever, yes... that, that's fine. Yeah. Yes. The... Yeah But you gotta, and y- you would...
25:12
Actually, even more than that I might be okay with, Matt, but not right away. Yeah. That was always the problem. Not right away. This is the NFL. You gotta learn one of these positions.
25:20
So you win the division, and now it's like Liam Coen in year two, Kelly, right? So now he's got a year under his belt. He knows Trevor Lawrence a little bit better.
25:29
He's understood the NFL game, NFL flow a little bit better as well as a head coach. I kind of expect, I kind of expect this team to be good. And I mean, I know there's- Mm-hmm...
25:41
a lot of people who just don't like Trevor Lawrence and won't get there on this team because they can't get there with Trevor Lawrence, and fair. Right?
25:48
He had, he did not live up to the second coming thing that we got him coming out of high school. Okay. Whatever. But he's been pretty solid, and certainly was solid last year.
25:58
Well- And if anything, you would think that this team is, is better this year. Yeah, I think, I think for the doubters out there, and I'm not gonna say I'm, you know, was always a Trevor Lawrence believer by any means.
26:08
Mm. Um, last year was good. I think this is the prove-it year, right? Dude, but this... Okay, everything came together. You got a new h- you had a new head coach, some changes going on in that team.
26:18
Maybe it was just a o- uh, maybe it was a one-year, uh, uh, y- you know, random of him being a little bit better than he's really is.
26:25
I think this is the prove-it year of prove you belong in this top quarterback, you know, one of the top quarterback conversations. And just remember, I mean, like, you know, Jakobi Meyers is there.
26:34
Brian Thomas doesn't have to be- Mm-hmm... you know, the guy. You don't have to feed Brian Thomas a million times. Maybe we said, like, the little gadget plays here and there for Hunter.
26:47
Uh, Strange at tight end played very well. This, this offensive line, three to four of the five pieces are good for them, so Trevor Lawrence shouldn't be running for, for his life or whatever.
26:56
The defense again, by and large, is good. I'm trying to figure out where you really wanna poke holes in this team outside of the fact that unless you just hate Trevor Lawrence. Right.
27:04
Unless you just don't like Trevor Lawrence. Hunter- There's not a lot to dislike... team in Springs, and Hun- Hunter will be a full-time cornerback, part-time wide receiver. Yeah.
27:14
[laughs] So part-time we're gonna play him at. Okay. Yeah. Yeah, it seems like g- like I said, I think it seems like, whatever, 10 snaps a game or something like that. Mm-hmm. Is what I'm, uh, was what I'm guessing.
27:26
You have to at least account for him. But for me, I, it's this team again for me in this division. Um- Did you bet it? It is one that is in the, it's in the queue. Yeah, I hear you.
27:38
I've had it written down for, like, two months too. It's, it's in the queue. And- Middle, middle of the road strength of schedule for this team. Right. There is, I think, kind of a lot to like about this.
27:50
And, I m- you know, kind of the forgotten man too. Remember Parker Washington? Yeah, yeah. Just kind of came out of nowhere whenever Travis Hunter got hurt.
27:58
And now that they're only gonna run Travis Hunter out there, like we're, like we're saying, what we assume to be a handful of snaps, if your three is Jakobi Meyers, Parker Washington, and Brian Thomas Jr., that's a pretty good, that's a pretty good three
28:15
to be able to- Mm... to, to be able to throw to on a down-to-down basis for Trevor Lawrence. There, there is one stat that's, that's has me concerned a little. Okay. The career high in sacks for Lawrence last year.
28:26
I mean, look, I know that he's out there doing more- Mm-hmm... uh, th- than he has in years pa- And, and it was career highs i- in, in touchdown passes- Yeah... rushing touchdowns, fewest turnovers of his career, right?
28:36
But did take a lot of sacks. And if that offensive line is a problem, then I think we got some issues here. Yeah, I, I don't think it will be, but again, can be proven wrong.
28:49
I, I like the- It's also Trevor Lawrence, like, you know, y- like, multiple of these guys in the league that we talk about, I would say C.J. Stroud, one of them too. He, he can run himself into some sacks too.
28:57
This will be one of those teams, though, we'll, we'll find out a lot about the character of this team early on. Yeah, you start out with, with the Browns, but then Broncos, Patriots, Bengals, Eagles, Texans all in a row.
29:08
Mm-hmm. We're gonna find out a lot about this Jags team in the first month and a half of the season. And you look at that schedule right there, Kelly, and I think you feel pretty good.
29:19
If you come out three and three right there even, I think you feel fine heading into the bye week. Yeah, and you know what? I hadn't scheduled the, or had, hadn't [laughs] studied the schedule as much before.
29:29
Yeah, I think this is a week seven I'm just gonna circle. I don't think I'm gonna enter the season with a, uh, a division bet here. Mm-hmm. But I think this is a week seven circle.
29:35
After they play the Texans in London, uh, readdress things with the Jags. Lightens up a ton after the bye. They have a week seven bye, so early-ish bye, but then Colts, Ravens, Titans, Giants, Titans, Bears, Steelers.
29:48
Like, that's kinda your next stretch right there. So lightens up a ton for them.
29:52
The, the other part, the other part that needs to be said about this team, and I guess this is a concern for me a little bit, Matt, I don't know how much it should be though, i- is the, is the stadium reno- renovations that they're doing, right?
30:02
They don't play at home week 4 to 11 while they're doing renovations, and then it's gonna be reduced seating after that. It's like 40,000 people or something they're gonna have at games. It's interesting.
30:13
Uh, it's gonna be interesting to see. That's gonna be, that's gonna be your 40,000 best fans, biggest fans. I mean, like, I don't know. It's eight, and I'm, uh...
30:19
Am I making too much of how much the Jaguars fans, uh, impact the game? Probably. Yeah. But, you know, still worth noting. The Colts started seven and one and finished eight and nine. Yep.
30:30
That tells you how that season went. Uh, started seven and one, one of the hottest teams in all the NFL. Daniel Jones was lighting it up, actually in the MVP conversation. Don't laugh. He was. Totally was, yep.
30:40
Don't, uh, don't laugh about that at all. He gets hurt. Team just absolutely spirals, completely falls off a cliff. Uh, is back
30:50
And is going to be starting for this team, and he's gonna be out there for training camp and, and he's gonna be good to go.
30:56
Alec Pierce, on the other hand, who they paid a whole bunch of money to be their, their wide receiver, i- is not it seems. Um, it seems as if he, he's at least gonna start injured, uh, trying to get back from everything.
31:08
They traded away Michael Pittman Jr., so when you talk about depth at the position, it does start to get a little bit wonky there for this Colts team. Really good starting corner tandem.
31:21
You could sit here and probably argue maybe the best starting corner tandem in all of the NFL in Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward. You're not gonna find too many corner tandems- Mm-hmm... better than that.
31:32
But a, a defensive line not that great. Linebacker not that great. So there are definitely holes in the s- on the- The, the defense was bad last year- Yeah... and honestly worse than I remember. Yeah.
31:44
Like looking, just looking back at stats, worse than I remember. I mean, PFF, they finished 25th defensive- Mm... uh, rating in defense. Seventh on offense this side of the ball.
31:54
I mean, like, beginning of the year the offense was great. Um, and actually ended up being just better overall than you would've thought. But yeah, 25th rated defense.
32:01
As fun of a story as it was last year with what they were able to do on the offensive side of the ball, by the way, it is a good offensive line, a- and arguably one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Yep, yep. Um,
32:12
I think very clearly in a second tier behind what the, what the Texans and the Jags bring to the table. I agree- I do not-... but also the biggest wild card to me. This is the biggest wild card.
32:22
Okay, so do you, do you honestly think they could win this division? I mean, they showed enough to g- 'Cause it's nearly four to one.
32:27
Uh, they showed enough at the beginning of last year that I c- I can't sit here and say no, they don't have a chance. Mm. I, I was not expecting that start by the Colts last season.
32:34
And, and you're talking about Daniel Jones back healthy. Yes, his numbers dipped before he got hurt, but you're talking about him back. They've had a whole off-season to get prepared.
32:45
Yeah, I, I can't say that they're, they're not a part of this conversation. Okay. I honestly, man, I think it's part of the reason why I'm staying, I'm staying on the sidelines when it comes to a Texans or Jags bet. I...
32:55
This is the third team that I think if you were considering any of them, it's another calendar spot, right? You start with Baltimore, Kansas City, Houston. Take three weeks, see how the team looks. I would...
33:04
If you're looking, if you're bullish on the Colts, I'd be playing overs after that.
33:07
It is certainly, it's certainly at least a, a mildly intriguing team if for nothing more than the fact that you do have an awesome offensive line, so Daniel Jones should be able to operate without much worry- Right...
33:19
back there. Great running game. And good running game to go along with all of that. And if Pierce can make it back sooner than later,
33:26
I think that this is a, you know, a team that, that, like you said, at least will be a tough out. It might not be a good team, but it'll be a team that nobody wants to play. Mm-hmm.
33:35
Can we at least get, can we at least go there? Oh, yeah, yeah. Yeah. I'm saying you can't rule them out completely winning, winning the division. Look at Kelly, Pavlin. JBT disagrees with me, says I'm crazy.
33:44
[laughs] I, I said very clearly the sa- [laughs] behind the Jags then the Texans. But you said, yeah, not so much. Yeah. Guys, if you have not visited Sharp Plays, head on over there.
33:54
Everything that they do has been documented, been winning for a long time over there. They are watched, respected, and feared. Head over to sharpplays.com. Today, when we come back, let's head to college football.
34:06
Ryan McIntyre gonna join us from The College Experience over there on the Sports Gambling Podcast Network. Who does he like to win it all, and a little bit of win totals as well.
34:15
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:35
[upbeat rock music] I've, uh, never played in a professional golf tournament, and I know these guys can do things that I would never be able to do in a million years.
34:46
I don't think Jackson Kovin's gonna be able to get a very good shot off right here. I mean, is he attempting this? I think- He's attempting this.
34:51
I think he is going to- I thought they just showed his ball clearly lodged underneath a chain link fence. They, they... It, it, it is, but I'm- And he's gonna hit it out of there...
35:01
but, but I, but I, but I think he pushed the fence because it's not a permanent structure. Oh, right, right, right, right. And, uh, pushed him and was able... Uh, pushed it and was able to...
35:11
I think he'll be able to get a club on it, but regardless it's not gonna be fun. It's not gonna be fun. I always wonder, like, what, uh, to what extent can you take that, right?
35:19
Like, let's just, let's move the fence this much and then let's, uh, you know, let, let's, let's pull, pull one of the poles out and mo- move it further back, right? Like, they're moving people right now. Yeah.
35:31
Oh, I guess maybe the... I guess... Oh, he called the rules official over. Maybe he's getting a free drop. He's got, yeah, he's gotta be dropping it. I mean, one way or another. There's no way he's hitting that. Yeah.
35:40
So maybe he gets a free drop because that's a- That's one of those-... again, not a permanent structure thing. Yeah, I think you're right. That's one of those, like the, uh, like the tree roots ru- right? Yeah.
35:49
Where you'd be like, "Kid, just don't hit that shot anyways." Like, this is only terrible things can occur here. We, uh,
35:57
we're sitting here and, you know, you are having a problem, a real problem with this broadcast because they will not update. Ricky Fowler moved to 7 under- Kelly, Kelly, Kelly-... like seven and a half minutes ago...
36:07
Kelly is full-on Brody from Mallrats right now, and he just keeps looking at the TV going like, "They can't update the score bug." I mean- And it's just like, "The kid is back on the escalator."
36:18
Like, it's just over and over again. But yes, yeah. The kid is back on the escalator. [laughs] He's driving me nuts. Hey, we bet on these things.
36:23
Sorry, the old television producer b- uh, brain of mine cannot handle this, but it is... We're about 10 minutes behind on whatever broadcast we have out of updating their score. So get with it, ESPN- Get with it...
36:35
and/or PGA Tour and/or both or whoever's, you know, handling this. Somebody's on vacation right now losing their mind, man. Their backup's dropping the ball. They are.
36:43
Now joining us here on the guest line, Ryan McIntyre. You can find him over on The College Experience on Sports Gambling Podcast Network @moneyline_mac on the Twitter machine. How you doing, buddy? What's up, guys?
36:53
How you doing? We're getting closer to college football. I hear you guys talking some golf. [laughs] Yes. That's right, we're getting close. We're- we're- we are getting close.
36:59
We said it, you know, we get to this point in the, in the year, and Ryan, we are full speed ahead, right? We are allowed to talk football as much as we want to.
37:07
Once you get to the end of July, it does become football season, and so glad to have you on here to talk some college football, and got some win totals that I really do like to, that we can get in nice and early here.
37:19
And one of them that kind of stuck out to me is Liberty at over eight and a half wins at some plus money.
37:26
We know Liberty at, uh, you know, a couple years ago had basically the easiest schedule in the history of college football. They were gonna go undefeated it seemed like no matter what.
37:33
Gotten a little bit tougher for them, but you still like them to get over that win total. Yeah, weird year last year.
37:39
Uh, I mean, Liberty's a proud program that spends a lot of money, spends almost like a Power Five, uh, program. And, and for them to be four and eight, uh, lost a ton of one-score games last year.
37:49
S- uh, s- six out of their eight games were one-score losses. Uh, but Chadwell had some health issues at, at, at the coaching position. So they revamped their roster.
37:58
They go out, they got more competition at the quarterback position. I think the defense is improved. Uh, I think they have a chance to win 10, 11 games.
38:05
They- this, this is still a program that spends at the top of, of the Conference USA, which is by far the weakest, uh, of the conferences in college football.
38:14
I expect a big bounce-back year for, uh, the Flames down there in Lynchburg. Like it. Ryan, thanks for joining the show. Love having you on. I love these win totals, man.
38:23
We got a bunch of overs that Ryan sent us, and there is nothing... Matt, I don't know about you. Mm-hmm. College football, football, sell me on an over two and a half wins, I love that type of bet.
38:33
UMass is where you're looking, Ryan. S- uh, make the case for them. Yeah. Me and, me and my co-host Colby Dant, uh, we- we- we got a good laugh out of this doing the UMass preview the other night.
38:43
[laughs] But you look at their schedule, man. Like they, uh, first off, I know they went 0 and 12 last year, so everybody looks at that. But they were the most injured team in college football.
38:53
They go out, um, another team that's spending at a higher level in the MAC with NIL. Uh, they've improved their roster. Pop Watson coming over from Virginia Tech, um, and, and Jeriz Mack, year number two.
39:05
Um, they bought two games. They're playing two FCS teams, so you're buying two wins there. Then you just need one FBS win to hit the over. Uh, I love that play. I think that they're closer to a.500 team in the MAC.
39:17
So y- two and a half, I think you're stealing money here. Love it.
39:21
Ryan, let's get to another plus money one, 'cause I do love these plus money ones as well, and you can find some plus money on Marshall over seven and a half. Yeah. Uh, love the Thundering Herd here.
39:31
Uh, Tony Gibson, year number two, I thought they overachieved. Their win total was, like, two and a half or three and a half last year. Um, they, they were chippy defensively.
39:39
Year two, Rod Smith at the offensive coordinator position. Um, I- they, they invested in the portal as well. They get a great schedule, um, wi- withdrawing the weaker, uh, team from the opposing division.
39:51
Um, this isn't about the throwback league where they still have the East and West, so Marshall drawing two of the bottom teams from the West.
39:57
Uh, I think their only te- only games that they're gonna be underdogs are Penn State and James Madison, so, and, and maybe Old Dominion. But, so yeah, give me, uh, over seven and a half for the Herd.
40:07
All right, we're gonna head out to Mountain West now. And yes, I did need to confirm this before setting up this question- [laughs]... Matt Brown.
40:13
Mount W- Mountain West Conference, New Mexico, another one you're looking over with UNLV at the top of the odds for Mountain West, plus 260. New Mexico just a little bit further back, plus 265 over at DraftKings.
40:25
Ryan, looking at over seven and a half wins for them, right? Yeah. Jason Ann did a great job year number one. Won nine games. He was great at, um, at Idaho the year before that.
40:35
They, I, th- I just think that this- they won nine games in a tougher Mountain West last year. They, they lose Boise, they lose Fresno State, they lose San Diego State, they lose Utah State.
40:46
Those are four of the top t- uh, top, top tier teams in the, in the Mountain West going over to the Pac-12. So now they get a watered-down version of the Mountain West. I think this number's off.
40:55
I think Ann and company challenge UNLV to win the Mountain West in year number two. Talking to Ryan McIntyre. Find him over at College Experience over on Sports Gambling Podcast Network. Tell me about Iowa.
41:07
I mean, death tax is Kirk Ferentz. They- we- we- [laughs] It's not gonna be sexy. It's not gonna be entertaining, but all they do is, is win ballgames. Last year, they...
41:17
I mean, they finished eight and four, and they had four losses by a combined, I- I believe 15 points. They, I mean, they were right there to beat Mendoza in Indiana at home. Uh, lose a tough one there. They almost...
41:28
They lose on a walk-off field goal to Oregon. Uh, they almost win at USC. So all this team does is win ballgames. Um, it's, it's never sexy. It's, it's never entertaining, but we know how hard at out they are at home.
41:40
They get, they get Ohio State coming to them at Iowa City for the first time in almost a decade. Last time Ohio State went there, they, they lost by 40.
41:47
Um, I, I just think Iowa gets a favorable schedule again, and over seven and a half wins. Ferentz wins eight games every year, so I will, uh, bank on the over once again in Iowa City with that defense. Okay, I like it.
41:59
And then heading to the Big 12, they might be 50 to one to win the conference, but you're gonna look over on West Virginia as well. Yeah. I, I, I think the Mountaineers are gonna start the year 7 and 0.
42:09
I, I think they got a great schedule. Rich Rod, year number two, always takes a step to, traditionally. Uh, bringing Cam Cook, leading rusher, uh, in the country last year from Jax State.
42:19
Michael Hawkins coming over from Oklahoma. Offensive line is, is, is revamped, bringing in Trickett back. Um, and I think the defense is improved. So you look at the schedule, you get UVA in a neutral, i- in quotes.
42:30
That game will be more of a Mountaineer crowd. And then you get two first-year coaches in Iowa State and OK State. And then you, you get Arizona and Cincinnati. So you start three out of four at home.
42:40
Uh, I think you hit that over five and a half by Halloween at the latest. And yeah, I am sprinkling, uh, the gold and blue here to win the Big 12. Ooh, like it.
42:49
All right, Ryan, let's go to the, couple of these big boy conferences as you get your overall thoughts on them.
42:54
The SEC led by Georgia and Texas, but not, you know, still un- still in single digits is A&M, Alabama, LSU, all to win the SEC. Which one of these teams do you like? Which one of these teams do you hate?
43:08
I, I, I mean, by default I like Georgia. Um, I, I, I, I'm gonna just take Kirby Smart blindly once again. Gunner Stockton, they bring back a ton defensively. They also got, I mean, I, I don't know what they do.
43:20
They always have a great schedule here. Um, they only have four true road games, uh, which is a plus compared to some teams that gotta play six or heck, maybe even seven.
43:29
Um, and I just think that they have, they, they always find a way to get to Atlanta, and when they get to Atlanta, uh, it's basically playing a home game.
43:37
I, I, I think Georgia, Texas will get a rematch of two years ago, and I'll take Kirby Smart over Sarkisian in the final once again. The team I'm out on in the SEC, I'm out on, uh, LSU.
43:47
I, I'm fading the hype train in year number one of, uh, Lane Kiffin. So, uh, I know Sam Leavitt comes over, super talented, but coming off an injury, too much noise for me in year number one. Man, hates LSU.
43:59
Did you hear that, Matt? Look at that, the third guy this week. [laughs] Just, just, just hates LSU. It's like the third guy this week. Hates your alma mater. Uh, real quick, Ryan, B- Big 10. Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon.
44:08
Is it just a race between those three teams? I think those are by far the three best teams, but don't sleep on Penn State with that schedule. Hmm. They miss all three of those teams.
44:18
Uh, they don't have y- an- Oregon, Ohio State, or Indiana on the schedule.
44:21
So I could see them with these mega conferences backing into a Big 10 title, but I, I think it ultimately will probably be Indiana, Oregon, and Indy for, uh, for the Big 10 title. He's Ryan McIntyre.
44:34
Find him over at The College Experience over on the Sports Gambling Podcast Network, @moneyline_mac on the Twitter machine. Appreciate the time, buddy, and good luck. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it. Thanks, Ryan.
44:44
Good stuff. The- Over two and a half. I love that. That's a win total you can sell me on. UMass. The LSU hatred- They play on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, too... is egregious on this network. Hate the Tigers.
44:53
Everybody hates the Tigers. Everyone hates the Tigers. Eh, it's okay. It gets to be your week. La- the past two weeks I've had to sit through Miami, pro-Miami, negative F- FSU stuff.
45:02
I did go into the College Football Guide thing and I did remove LSU from winning the MAC and the Big 12 and all of that, whatever. Oh, that was nice of you. How, eh. So at least, at least I did do that.
45:09
Made things easier for Zach. Good. [upbeat rock music]
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