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Jul 31, 2024
A Numbers Game | July 31, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | July 31, 2024 | Hour 1
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44:33
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSIN.
0:09
It is Wednesday morning in downtown Las Vegas, which means you're halfway through me filling in for Gil this week, uh, on A Numbers Game. I am- Thank God... Jarren Smith. Thank God. [laughs] Kelly Bitlan chimes in.
0:19
We were having a really fun conversation right before we came on. We are going to continue it at some point during the show. I'll tease it.
0:26
We were basically saying if you could choose any quarterback career path for your life to follow, what would best suit your mindset?
0:37
And what I mean by that is, would you rather be the Tom Brady, who's the underdog, picked in the sixth round and, you know, scrappy backup, or would you rather be the Joe Burrow, uh, Mr.
0:47
Cool, Heisman Trophy winner coming in? For me, I'd rather be Brady. Because I think if I was Burrow, I'd get really complacent, and by the time I won that Heisman, I'd be... My brain would be elsewhere.
0:57
So we'll have that conversation a little bit. Maybe we'll ask JVT, uh, or Frank Schwab, who's coming up later in the show, uh, which quarterback brain he would rather have.
1:05
Do you wanna chime in quickly before we move on? Uh, I think that you have a, a, a real great sense of yourself. I do. I- If you can answer Tom Brady, because I think, um, it's probably the right answer for most people.
1:19
Look, in this life, it's always great to have less expectations on you- [laughs]... than more expectations. Surprise people. It's always one of the best things in life. Under promise, over deliver.
1:26
That abso- There it is, Jarren. That's my, like, life motto- Yeah... right there. Under promise, over deliver. Uh, so I think in reality, most people should want that.
1:35
But, uh, d- if, yeah, if I had the choice right now, give me Joe Burrow. That's... See, that's the rub. Give me a Heisman Trophy, a championship. Ex- exactly. Cocky cigar smoking in the locker room. At age 21. Exactly.
1:46
Instead of Brady, who comes in looking like, you know, the dude from math class- [laughs]... with a scrawny pre-draft picture.
1:53
And he doesn't even start, doesn't even play his rookie year until Mo L- what was it, Mo Lewis, I think that was the linebacker that knocked out Bledsoe in that [laughs] game. I forget. Poor Bledsoe.
2:03
Um, uh, yeah, poor [laughs] F- [laughs] Although, although- He took it really hard in that Netflix documentary, too. [laughs] I feel like- Or in the, uh, in the roast...
2:10
I feel like I hadn't heard from Bledsoe in years, and then I thought he was one of the funniest surprises of that roast. I thought he was great. Well, that- that's what wine does to your brain.
2:17
[laughs] It just, it makes you... He is a big wino. Um, yeah, w- we're gonna, we're gonna have some fun a little later in the sh- I, I will explain why I think Tom Brady, if I had to choose...
2:28
Now, this is a personal choice. Personal choice.
2:31
If I had to choose one of the paths, I think I w- I, I think knowing enough about myself and how I think and how I go about my business, I would choose the Brady pa- I mean, there's other paths.
2:42
You could take a Rogers path, where you had a really good college career, and then maybe you just got, you know, slighted a little bit in the first round, you get your chip.
2:50
It is interesting, and it's one of those philosophical- Tough draft day. A lot- Yeah... a lot, a lot of days spent in snow. Ah. That, I'll be honest, this is one of those things that I, I, I live alone.
3:02
I have a dog, but I live alone. I have a lot of time on my hands, sometimes, to think late at night. [laughs] So I think about these things. I was thinking about this on the ride in this morning. If, if I could- Ugh...
3:10
like, Warg, for Game of Thrones people, Warg my brain into one of the other quarterbacks, who would I ra- who would I have the most success emulating the way that I think and the way that I think about myself?
3:23
It's interesting stuff. Um, but today's topic at hand is obviously right off the top Major League Baseball. Yesterday was one of those weird days.
3:31
I, I think on the scale of, like, one to 10, yesterday was an 11 in terms of baseball weirdness.
3:36
It just, you had guys, you had Paul DeJong, who plays for the, w- yesterday played for the White Sox until the trade deadline, literally moving dugouts. Like, moving locker rooms.
3:45
It's my favorite thing every year when it happens. Yeah, you got a trade- Or every other year... from the White Sox to the Royals. Usually it, we get one random one a year.
3:50
And then you had, obviously, a lot of big names. Jack Flaherty, I think, was the biggest one, right at the buzzer, by the way. Yeah.
3:56
Uh, right at the actual literal buzzer, uh, we had one of the biggest trades of the entire deadline with Jack Flaherty going from the Tigers to the Dodgers. Um, so Tarik Skubal stays, Garrett Crochet stays.
4:07
The last one's a surprise. I think what happened with Crochet is people just got weirded out by the fact that he's a starter, but they might have to move him to the bullpen.
4:14
You're moving him to a situation he hasn't played in, pitched in all year. You know, it, obviously, you just, there's a lot of change there, and you have to give up a lot to get him.
4:23
Um, uh, Skubal, I think, was just probably too expensive, uh, because of the contract situation.
4:28
I, I, I thought there was a chance he was gonna get moved, but it looks like the Tigers kind of, uh, uh, pivoted to Flaherty at the last moment there, and was able to get him dealt.
4:37
Um, the Orioles made a couple of deals. The Trevor Rogers one was intriguing. Um, I, I think everyone who acquired a player yesterday won. Because usually the way these work, you're not giving up as much to...
4:50
You know, you don't see the block, but that, that's why Crochet and Skubal didn't get moved. Because of their contract situations, you would've had to given up a lot to get those guys.
5:00
And a lot of times these- And both young, right? They're both very young. Yeah. And they're both relatively cheap right now, considering the production you're getting.
5:06
So these teams are a little bit more buy low, sell high at the deadline. They, they wanna take a flyer on a guy who's had a rough year. Maybe he's a little bit down.
5:14
Maybe he's a veteran who pitches for, uh, you know, a, a bad team. And for the most part, it's a short-term, uh, low-risk commitment. And you don't give up a lot to get him, because
5:25
stuff [laughs] these prospects don't grow on trees. Yeah. I guess sometimes it seems like they do based on how many names they throw in. Two ho- two homers yesterday for Jazz Chisholm, right?
5:33
Uh, uh- Jazz Chisholm is, I, as a Yankees fan, what else can you ask for? Okay, so as a Yankees fan. Outside of that, though, y- what, what- They gave up nothing for him... what are you left feeling today?
5:42
Are you, are you feeling like this was a good trade deadline for the Yankees? If- 'Cause I feel like they're the one team that's been- Well, no, any, any pitching...
5:47
Yeah, I feel like they're the one team to get killed a bit.
5:49
Based on what the Dodgers, based on what the Dodgers gave up, or, but what the Dodgers gave up for Flaherty, the, the big gripes I saw from some of the Yankee, um, elitists, I'll call them, you know, prominent p- You know, baseball people that I think, you know, can be a little critical sometimes of some of the bigger teams.
6:07
Um, the Yankees could have made a similar deal probably. I guess they just didn't see the value in Flaherty. Mm. The problem is, the problem for the Yankees for me, I don't think their rotation's very good.
6:19
I, I think, I think even Gerrit Cole, who was pushed back yesterday 'cause of fatigue. Gerrit Cole's made, what, six starts this year and he's already fatigued? Oh, that was a weird story. Yeah.
6:29
I mean, I'm- And what, there was different reports- Obviously-... about him, like, having an illness and then, like- Yeah, he said he had a stomach virus, and if that's the case, then that's fine. Yeah, yeah.
6:37
Um, and we'll see how he looks in his next start. Did he have the stomach virus a few days ago [laughs] when he gave up, like, eight runs to the Mets?
6:44
Um, or did he just develop that stomach virus, uh, over the last couple of days? I, I don't know the answer to that question.
6:49
But the Yankees don't have an ace if he's not pitching at an ace level, because Marcus Stroman and Luis Hill, who I love, i- is, you know, he's pitched, what, 120 innings this year, and he's never pitched that much.
7:01
How much is he gonna have left in the tank in October? I hope a lot. Yeah, that's a huge question. Because he's been their best pitcher this year. Yeah.
7:07
The Yankees best pitcher this year is a guy that wasn't pitching in, in baseball- [laughs] Right... a couple years ago. Yeah. [laughs] That's scary when you have Stroman and, and Sw- and not, not, not Suarez.
7:18
Cortez, I'm thinking of another lefty who I think is a little bit overvalued, and Gerrit Cole. It, it's just, I, I'm worried. I'm worried about the rotation. And the bullpen blew another save last night.
7:29
They won the game in extra innings. Um, good for them. Those extra inning games with the ghost runner on second can be really fluky. I'm not drawing anything from any...
7:38
I am not looking into any extra inning wins as positive or negative. Because when we get to the playoffs, when the games matter, that doesn't exist. So i- it's, I, I think they're gonna lose today, but
7:51
I don't think, I, I don't consider them to be better than the Orioles right now. I don't know why. Maybe it's just because Corbin, I view Corbin Burns as better than any pitcher that the Yankees have,
8:01
and, and that's just kinda where I'm at with Baltimore right now. But I, I, I, I have Baltimore, even though the odds say- And-... that the Yankees are a favorite right now to win the division.
8:09
I, I have Baltimore in front of them. Yeah, and may- and maybe, what, a more rounded out lineup, uh- Well, that's-... a well-rounded lineup. Well, with Chisholm, it makes it different. Yeah.
8:16
I honestly, I, I think if, if Jazz, if he could do [laughs] this for another 50 games- They're gonna be okay... I'll change my tune a little bit. Yeah. I'll change my tune a little bit.
8:26
He has, and I've watched a lot of Yankee games in my... I've been a Yankee fan since I was basically at birth.
8:31
Uh, the backstory is my mom's mo- or my mom's dad, my grandfather, was involved with Gene Michael, um, i- in a business sense. And so I, I was around the team a lot growing up.
8:43
Um, actually, my, my grandfather's family actually, when, when CBS sold the Yankees in 1978, I think, my grandfather's company put in a bid for it.
8:52
They were outbid by Steinbrenner, but I was very close to the Yankees growing up. I, I've watched them literally since, since I can remember.
9:00
When you watch Jazz Chisholm, he reminds me of someone who isn't afraid of the spotlight. And I think sometimes when the Yankees make a trade for a player, it's never the back of the baseball card- Mm...
9:13
that's a concern. Usually, you're getting good stats. That's why the Yankees are making a trade. It's the heart. You know, does this guy have the heart to compete in New York? Yeah, yep. It's a different animal.
9:23
It is a different animal when you're dealing with that every day. Guys like Aaron Judge can handle it. Guys like Sonny Gray couldn't handle it. DJ LeMahieu, question mark? Well, he's, I think the...
9:33
[laughs] They had him. They, they, basically, here's what the Yankees did. They called Jazz Chisholm and they said, "Hey, Jazz, we're trading for you. Can you play third base?"
9:42
[laughs] "Because we've got a guy at third base right now who we just, we need to get out of the lineup," and he can. But, like- He's looked awesome at third base the last two nights.
9:49
But, like, LeMahieu's a good example, right? Like, I mean, wasn't, when, when acquired, uh, when acquired, he had some monster numbers going, right? Yeah, I think he just, father time's undefeated. Yeah.
9:59
The bat speed is too slow. He has one home run this year. He, he, he was almost a.400 hitter. Right, right. And now, granted, he was in Colorado for a number of years, but that first year with the Yankees was very good.
10:08
I, it's, it's tough. Listen, baseball's tough. It's every day, it's a grind, but that's why days like this are great. Days like today is what every day in June and July should be.
10:18
I tweeted this out right before the show. Baseball, sun up to sun down, 9:00 AM to 9:00 PM, here in Pacific Time. Obviously, Eastern Time, it'll be noon to midnight, but that's what June and July is.
10:30
Today's the last day of July. Next week, we're talking about pre-season football. This week, there's a game. Tomorrow, right? Two days? Friday? No, Thursday night, yeah, tomorrow night. Tomorrow night.
10:40
There's a f- football game tomorrow night, played with real pads. They have hel- helmets, cleats. They're gonna paint the field and everything. It's a real game. The Texans, a one and a half point favorite.
10:52
Make a bet there? 31 and a half is your total in that game. Uh, no bet for me. There will be no bets for me. The Bears announcing yesterday that none of their starters will be playing in the game.
11:02
The Texans- Tyson Bagent, though. Remember him? That's right. Secret Bagent man will be in there. Secret [laughs] Bagent man. [laughs] Really excited about today's show. Kelly booked another good one.
11:10
We've got Jonathan Vottero coming up next. Um, we'll talk a little Olympic hoops and college football. College Football Guide's out tomorrow. Very excited about that. I've got a couple of write-ups.
11:18
JBT's got some, um, I think Group of Five. I, are we calling it the Group of Five anymore now that it's, like, a weird- Oh, God, great question. I don't even know what the conferences are. I have no idea.
11:27
Can we, can we just eliminate the conferences? You, you wrote up Big 12- Frank Schwab top of the hour too... and Mountain West, so yeah, we'll hit on that with him. So not quite Group of Five.
11:34
We'll have a m- a Power Five in there as well. Mm. Although, I guess it's the least powerful of the five- [laughs]... perhaps, the Big 12 this year, which is kind of a hodgepodge. Frank Schwab top of the hour as well.
11:44
NFL, a numbers game continues after this, Veesen. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network Hey, guess what?
12:02
The College Football Betting Guide gets released tomorrow. Only for VSiN Pro subscribers. Features best bets from writers, on-air personalities, along with team previews of all 134 FBS teams.
12:12
If you want the best and most comprehensive collection of picks, predictions, previews, now's the time to become a VSiN Pro subscriber. The College Football Betting Guide, out tomorrow.
12:21
Our subscriptions include an all-access pass to VSiN best bets, betting tools, and daily articles. Sign up now, VSiN.com/subscribe. A numbers game back here on Wednesday morning. Jared Smith in for Gil this week.
12:34
Kelly Bidlin here with us as well. Joining us now on the Progressive guest line, you are very familiar with his work, the host of VSiN Primetime, senior NBA analyst here at VSiN. He is Jonathan Von Tobel.
12:44
JVT, it's, uh, great to talk to you. Um, before we get to the College Football Guide, which you are obviously a big part of, we do have Olympic basketball, which is, uh, uh, hot and heavy. And I'll be honest, I, I...
12:55
This is why I love you, pal. You keep it real.
12:58
When Team USA the other day took care of business against Serbia, you're like, "Yeah, I guess we're all over," um, those, those, those preliminary games, which looked a little shaky.
13:06
Do you think we're gonna see a much different match up today against South Sudan [laughs] than we saw the last time out? Yeah, I mean, I mean, look, I think when you saw these friendlies, they are pre-season contests.
13:16
They are, uh, match-ups that you are not game planning for, that you are not overly thrilled, uh, thrilled with, right? Because you're just trying to get through. You're trying to build continuity.
13:24
You're working on different things. And the, the one thing that I kept harping on on Primetime throughout the entire process was, look, they played two of the three teams we consider to be the contenders, right?
13:34
That, that were at least gonna compete with them. It was Serbia and it was Canada in the tuneups, and they handled both of them with relative ease. And then you see them play Serbia again, handle them with relative ease.
13:45
I still think that even in this group play you can work on some stuff, especially, you know, look, you're about a what, 29 and a half point favorite today against South Sudan.
13:52
But remember, uh, point differential matters. And yes, while you expect this team to move on in group play, uh, you don't want to leave the door open for anything.
13:59
So I don't think they're gonna take their foot off the gas in any way, shape or form. We know they're gonna do something different with their rotations. We know that Tatum's gonna be out there.
14:05
But I think this team against South Sudan the first time around wasn't taking it seriously, was in tuneup mode. And remember too, guys, South Sudan in that first match-up hit 14 threes. They shot over 50% from the floor.
14:16
Uh, small guys were hitting step back jumpers over Anthony Davis. I think it was JT Thor that hit a step back corner three late in the game that gave them the lead.
14:24
Like, there was a lot of different wild stuff in that friendly. I would expect a, a team that is going to push to cover this number here today in Team USA. Yeah, really good stuff.
14:32
Um, I, I'm, I, I think I would lay it today with Team USA.
14:36
Like, it just, it feels like I- they're just gonna put the pedal down and, and, uh, and, and kinda show you that, hey, that last match up was, uh, was certainly a fluke.
14:44
All right, let's, um, let's get to the College Football Betting Guide. You're a big- I'm sure you've been working really hard o- on this, uh, over the last I don't know how long.
14:51
Um, a- any correlation to your work with the NCAA football game [laughs] and the College Football Betting Guide? Some crossover match-ups there, maybe some scouting going on?
15:00
[laughs] Uh, I don't know about, uh, some crossover and some scouting, but after two years and consecutive bowl seasons at Charlotte, I did get hired at Iowa State, so, uh- Congratulations [laughs]...
15:09
we're, we're, we're on the way up. We're on the way up. Congratulations, Bidsy. Kelly, are you, are you into this game? I haven't- I haven't bought it yet. No... I haven't bought it.
15:14
I don't even have a system to play it. No, I'm excited to play it. I haven't bought it yet.
15:18
And th- but now I'm like, I keep hearing these th- I ke- I, I've heard from a couple people a- and I feel like this ma- uh, I, I feel like I'm an old man when I say this, but, like, video games are getting tough, man, and I keep hearing- Yeah...
15:27
from people about, like, tough parts of this game. Kids are getting better at 'em too. Yeah, g- all the kids are so good. I don't wanna play tough video games. Yeah. Like, I like playing- Come on, you gotta do it...
15:35
I like playing NBA 2K like 10 years ago and just having LeBron go dunk it every single time. Like, that was fun. Yeah. No, no, it's worth it.
15:42
You actually, and you do, like, you do have to have like a t- tiny little bit of football knowledge, right? Like, you know, you do have to, like, read, like, all right, we got two high safeties.
15:49
All right, maybe we're gonna get to cover three here. You gotta change your protections. You gotta do a little bit. [laughs] So it does help you out a little bit. A little scouting here.
15:55
All right, let's get into the Big 12. Very different year for the conference. Obviously teams like Utah coming in, Arizona. Um, it, how do you think it's gonna shake it up?
16:03
Do you think those teams coming in immediately get put at the top, or do you think there's gonna be some filtering here, um, with this new conference? No, I mean, I think the market's got this right.
16:12
Where, you know, with the Big 12, Utah deserves to be at the top. When you look at what the Utes are bringing back in here, uh, with Cam Rising, he doesn't count as a returning starter, but he should.
16:20
We know he's played for an eternity. It's his seventh year as a quarterback in the Na- or excuse me, in the, in, uh, in, uh, in the NCAA.
16:26
When you look at what he did his first full year, his last full year as a starter in 2022, he was amongst the best in college football. You look at some of those statistics for him.
16:34
So we know that this team is going to be great. But for those who don't remember, 3,030 yards. He ran for 523. Was responsible for 32 total touchdowns.
16:43
That's the guy that you're getting back into the fold, that quarterback. I think you can argue that when you look at the offensive line, maybe there's some questions, right? They're retooling that.
16:51
But you get so many guys back on defense for a team that finished 11th in the country in opponent EPA per play.
16:56
And remember last year, I mean, this team had no business being in some of the games that it should've because its offense was so bad. It was that defense that kept them in it, and this thing remains mostly intact.
17:05
There's some d- losses in the defensive backfield, but the group's worst ranking by far was they were 21st, uh, by EPA standards against the run last season. 21st.
17:14
Um- Like, so they're gonna be a very good team, I think, and they deserve to be at the top. But having said that, look at their schedule, and there is some noise here, right? You know, you do have to take on Arizona.
17:22
You get them home. You have to go to Oklahoma State. You have to go and take on, uh, Iowa State at home. You get to host them, though. And you have to go to UCF.
17:29
Those are gonna be some competent teams that you could potentially slip up against. So I, I think generally, the, the way I've handled this, Jared, is I'm looking elsewhere than the top of this.
17:37
But I do think a team like Utah deserves to be favored. If they're a Big 12... I mean, the Big 12's gonna get a team in the College Football Playoff. Utah's deserving of that w- uh, you know, spot.
17:48
Do you think they can win a game in the College Football Playoff? Are they that, are they good enough to do that? Yeah, I mean, I think so.
17:53
I mean, I, I would never, I would never really doubt Whittingham on what he could do with the squad, how good they're gonna be defensively.
17:58
They're gonna be a top 20 team defensively, and if you're gonna be that good, and again, depends on the match up, right, I think you can win against anybody.
18:04
I think a more interesting playoff angle for the Big 12 overall is, i- is this more than a one-bid league? I would say probably not.
18:11
A heavy favorite that you're only getting one g- one team out, and that would be your conference champion. Hmm. Uh, but crazier things have happened.
18:16
But I think that's the interesting d- dynamic with this is, you know, if it's not, if you get a conference champ, do you get another team?
18:22
And I would say it's very unlikely just given the state of the conference and the fact that, you know, the common thread amongst all of these teams is offense, good, defense, eh.
18:31
And, like, that's going to, I think, lead to a lot of volatility when you look throughout this conference outside of Utah. All right. Let's go to the Mountain West.
18:37
I know you're very invested in this conference, of course. Uh, what a year last year for UNLV. Do, do, do you think that's repeatable? I do.
18:45
I, I think what UNLV brings back here is gonna be pretty fascinating and lead to, I think, some really good things. Now, the most important position, they are, they have a brand new quarterback room.
18:54
He's outside of Cam Friel, and Cam Friel's been just, like, a, a program stalwart.
18:57
He's been, like, the third-string quarterback there for years, and really good kid, but he's not going to be competing for a starting job. So out Jade Maiava. He goes to Georgia and then USC.
19:07
Uh, Doug Brumfield, who started for them last year, medically retired. So you bring in two FCS transfers for UNLV. You have Hajj Malik Williams out of Campbell, and you have Matt Sluka coming in from Holy Cross.
19:17
And while that, I think, turns some people off, these two guys are, are much better suited than Maiava was for this team last year in this what they call the go-go offense.
19:25
You have to have some mobility out of your quarterback and s- and some speed, and you can now have that with both Malik, excuse me, with Williams and with Sluka.
19:32
Sluka, I would say, is the favorite right now to win the job.
19:35
So while you downgrade, if you will, a quarterback, I think it's actually a, a, a, uh, lateral move at worst because these are two guys who schematically fit better with what you wanna do.
19:45
And then you have a great wide receiver corps, right? You have Ricky White coming back in. You have an All-American returner and special teams, or a special teamer in DeJesus.
19:53
You've got the middle of your defense back in Jackson Woodard and others. They added a lot of size in the defensive backfield. And the most important, as you're always analyzing these, right, is the schedule. Hmm.
20:02
You get Boise State at home. You get Fresno State at home. The two teams that you're gonna competing with will have to come to you, and your road games are not as challenging.
20:10
Utah State should be pretty good, but outside of that, Hawaii, winnable game, San Jose State rebuilding, Nevada, of course, you get them at home, too. So I, I think this team is very much built to compete.
20:19
They were one of the two teams that I, that I bet to win the Mountain West. I bet them at 8/1 at Circa. That has since moved because Tedford, uh, of course, over at Fresno State, has decided to retire.
20:28
But I think this team is going to be very competitive in this conference. We talked to Pete Futeck yesterday. He's high on Air Force this year.
20:34
They lost a ton, but it, they seem to be just a team or a, a program that, that seems to reload despite the fact that you wouldn't think they, they have this deep recruiting class.
20:42
But, uh, their win total's sitting at six and a half. Any, any, uh, interest in getting involved with the Falcons this year? I, I can't, man. Like, I, I get it.
20:50
Like, Troy Calhoun has been absolutely awesome, and every single year. But, like, there's rebuilding and then there's what Air Force is doing this year. They, they are bringing back nobody- Hmm... from last year.
21:00
And I get it. Like, look, they have won 29 games over the last three seasons. They have been awesome.
21:04
But your offensive line, which a couple of years ago was competing for the top na- honor in the nation, it is completely rebuilt, gone. Four starters are gone. Three of them all Mountain West members.
21:13
Your quarterback, you're starting to retool that. Your junior fullback, your most, uh, your most experienced guy coming back ran for just 493 yards in 2023. You're rebuilding your defense at every single position.
21:24
Calhoun's been awesome, but I just don't know how in a Mountain West that looks really competitive, Boise State, Fresno State, UNLV, I even think Wyoming, the other team I bet to win the conference, is gonna be pretty good.
21:34
I, I don't, don't know that I'm gonna buy into a team rebuilding this much, even though the option really raises your floor and Calhoun's such a great coach. Great stuff. Uh, tha- thank you for answering that.
21:44
'Cause I was gonna ask you, what was the second team that you bet on [laughs] to win the Mountain West? Uh, but as the consummate professional that you are, you already answered it for me.
21:51
Jonathan Von Tobel, uh, co-host of VSIN Primetime, and of course, new head coach at Iowa State. Congratulations on the new gig, pal. I appreciate it. Just took a, a road loss to Colorado. [laughs] Ah.
22:01
It was, it was nonsense, but it's fine. All right. Great stuff as always, and good luck if you got the Olympics today. I don't know if you're laying it with Team USA. I think I might get involved there.
22:09
Appreciate it, guys. Have a good one. Um, yeah, I... Mountain West is always a fun conference to handicap.
22:15
I, I think it's one of those conferences that the talent is good enough to where you're, you, you need to pay attention to these kids, but there's still a little bit of that heart and hustle that it, you know, is a little b- I think sometimes is actually easier to quantify than, um, some of the higher talented individuals.
22:30
So great stuff always, JBT, um, Mountain West expert. All right. On the other side, we'll get back to the NFL. We've got some interesting topics to discuss.
22:38
Maybe I'll give out a baseball bet or two at some point during the show as well. The Numbers Game continues on VSIN. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSIN, the sports betting network. Thank you very much, JBT.
22:56
Great stuff. Of course, catch him on VSIN Primetime later tonight. Um, I'm gonna be laying it with USA today. I haven't bet on the Olympics really much, but
23:05
today feels like the day that they say, "Okay, it's time to show you how good we really are." And I know they showed that against Serbia, but they were embar- Let's be honest. That was embarrassing against South Sudan.
23:16
Like, I know that it was a preliminary game and it doesn't matter, but everyone was laughing at them, and they read social media. They are going to respond today, I think. What do you think? Man, it's a big number.
23:28
[laughs] It's a big number. It's 28 points. [laughs] That is 28 points you gotta lay. I know. It is. How much did they beat Serbia by? And they have Nikola Jokic on their team. Uh, it wasn't, it wasn't- 30...
23:38
it didn't get up to twen- uh, was it 30? They beat them, like, 112-84. I think they beat them by 28. It was like, it's right around, it was right around that number.
23:45
A lo- it was a li- some of that ca- 112-84, I think, was the final. Some of, some of that came in garbage time.
23:50
It wa- hey, one thing to win- Well, when you're up by, they're gonna be up by, they're, they're gonna be up considerably in garbage time, I'm sure.
23:54
One, one thing to keep in mind about this tournament is that point differential does matter. That's what I'm talking about. Yeah, yeah. That was the... When he, when JBT said that, my ears went whoop. Yeah, hang on.
24:04
[laughs] Uh, which I love. Like, I, they need to, like, they- I don't know these rules. I don't wa- I don't pay attention to these rules. Yeah, I- I haven't been capping this tournament...
24:11
for a lot of people that watch the, the, like, this basketball, I feel like every, every time there's, like, there's FIBA competition of any kind, like- Yeah, it's always weird rules. You gotta be aware of the rules.
24:19
Well, and you always get the guys that are like, "Dude, this rule and this rule should be a part of the NBA. What are we doing?"
24:24
And it's, like, the same guys every, like, two years, and you're just like, "Dude, they're not doing it." But the point differential one- That matters... I, I would love to see it, Jared.
24:33
I would, I would love to see it because so much of the- Oh, yeah... it gets rid of so much of the unwritten rules of b- you know, of sportsmanship and stuff. Well, it matters in the NFL. That's one of the tiebreakers.
24:44
Mm-hmm. Yep. So I, I, they make it- And I guess it goes to, what, the in-season tournament now? I guess, yeah... make it one of the tiebreakers. That's not a, that's not a radical change. Right. I'm with you.
24:53
I'm with you. That's not a radical change. Make point differential the number one tiebreaker in the NBA. Now, what are the odds after 82 games you have two teams that fin- It happens.
25:02
It doesn't happen a lot, but it happens. It happens significantly more in the NFL, much fewer games. You don't have to be a math wizard to know that.
25:08
Now, you, so you gotta go either more important or less important than that, 'cause the problem is then you're g- you're gonna still have the unwritten rules, uh, guys, but then there's gonna be, like, three co- Oh, love the unwritten rules guys...
25:18
there's gonna be, like, three or five coaches that, you know, that take it way too seriously and, like, wanna run up the score every time. And then, you know, you're gonna get all these other coaches- Yeah...
25:26
complaining. I think no matter what you do, this is what I've learned in life on 38 and a half years on this earth. It doesn't matter what you do, people will judge or complain. Yeah, yeah, people love to complain.
25:37
So it just, it... I get judged for things. I do things one way, then I change my course, the other people judge me.
25:43
Everyone gets criticized and judged, especially when you're in a public prominent situation, which obviously basketball, the NBA is. No matter what they change, people will gripe.
25:53
People are griping on social media today, this morning. They don't like our, our, our button-down shirt. Shout out Mr. Sean Higgs on, on X. He says we're a little too chesty today. See, I have a dilemma here, Sean.
26:04
If I go top button here, then I get, like, the weird, like, butler look. Yeah, this is, this, this is the most- Like, it looks like now I'm, like, serving your, your, your ca- caviar on a- Same, same here...
26:15
on a Saturday night... I don't, I don't like this look for either one of us. No, it's too- This, this is, like, the most common topic on this show, by the way... casual, casual.
26:20
Like, if I got chest hair popping out, I'd be, I would say, "Okay, maybe I should calm myself down," but that's not... It's summertime. I, I trim it down here in the summertime. Yeah.
26:28
I'm headed on vacation in an hour and a half, all right, Sean? So you have to, uh- Yeah, honestly, you- you [laughs] you're lucky Calley's even wearing a shirt... I'm gonna be, I'm gonna be cheese-less.
26:35
[laughs] You're lucky he's got sleeves on today. Um, but we appreciate, uh, you chiming in on X. Please feel free. Um, we don't take your comments personally. I've heard it all.
26:45
I've literally heard every insult and, and, and critique in the book at this point in my, uh, my career. So feel free to chime in. If it's constructive, I'll read it on air. If not, um, I'll probably just ignore it.
26:56
Um, all right, let's, let's get to what I think is becoming... This is actually, and I give Tim Murray a lot of credit for this.
27:03
I didn't even bet this market until, you know, a few months ago, and he was all hot and heavy about it. "All right, I'll throw a few shekels down." I think they won a bet.
27:10
I think them, I think the Primetime Crew and Gil both won the same month. Was this back in June now, or was it May? Do you, have you figured out which month it was that you guys had it? Yes, it was Astros June, right?
27:21
Astros June. Astros June. Yeah. So we're now in August, or at least we're, we, we will be tomorrow, and the time has come now to place an August most wins bet. Bum, bum, ba. We talked about these teams yesterday.
27:32
Well- Do you wanna give us the bet that you have first? Well, real, real- How do you wanna play this?... quick, let's, uh, let's recap July. Sure. Because there is- Oh, good point. Good point...
27:39
yeah, for people that do have July bets- Yeah, good call... today matters. You've got, you've got the Mets with 17 wins in the months, uh, with, in the month, Diamondbacks with 16.
27:48
So this is still up for grabs today if you do have a July month, uh, long bet. Uh, and you've got, what, both teams in action. Mets, I forget who they have, but someone pretty good. Mets play the Twins.
28:00
And then- Pablo Lopez, Luis Severino. Good pitching matchup, actually. I would argue the two aces of the staff.
28:04
And the Diamondbacks have the Nationals, so if you're holding a Mets ticket, you're probably sweating a little bit at least, uh, today. I think the D-backs are winning today. Let's look at the numbers.
28:12
Let's let the odds decide here. Um, actually give me a second. I need my odds screen to refresh. [laughs] It's like I've got, I've got everything pulled up but MLB.
28:20
Um, all right, you have the Mets minus, uh, minus 102, Twins minus 118, so the slight dog to the Twins, uh, even at home.
28:28
And then the Diamondbacks are minus 180 favorites with Zach Gallen on the mound against the Nationals. Yeah, the Diamondbacks are going to...
28:34
The Diamondbacks, I think, are the hottest team in the National League right now. The Mets are obviously having a really good month, but I, I think the D-backs are, um, I think the D-backs win today.
28:45
Would, now here's the better question, and, and, and I'm not a... Again, I don't gamble professionally, so I never have big money at stake for bets like these.
28:53
But if you did have big money at stake for a bet like this, how would you even hedge it? Would you just fade the team you have, or would you bet on the team that you don't have? It's actually a really difficult question.
29:03
I would need a math person to tell me. It is, and it's also, there's, there's also the different, like Gil and I have talked about this often, but different house rules depending on where you bet this too- Great point...
29:12
with what happens with tiebreakers and everything. That heat matters. Exactly. Um, like certain- I think Circa does a run differential, right? Correct.
29:18
Yeah, yeah, they do a run differential, so- So who, do you know the run differentials? 'Cause that matters too. Not off the top of my head, Jared.
29:23
But I mean, I don't know if you had that in the, in this monthly standings. [laughs] What website do you use that does monthly standings? Uh, StatMuse usually just, uh, quick, quick to, yeah- StatMuse has it, yeah...
29:32
quick to be able to look it, check it out. StatMuse is good. I did, it, I was looking at this the other day. I probably have f- like $500 a month I spend on data and subscription services to places- Oh, I know, yeah...
29:39
like StatMuse and, and props.cash and all these other random... I just signed up for a new odd screen, uh, the other day that has Nerfys. I've never seen a Nerfy odd screen before until this place. Oh, that's cool.
29:52
Yeah, and it's very helpful actually. Who's doing that? Odds Jam. Okay. Very helpful. Yeah, Odds Jam's a good spot. Yeah. And it's only 80 bucks a month. Yeah. That's good. Now, I pay a lot for Don Best now. Mm-hmm.
30:02
I'm thinking about not paying that as much anymore, because I feel like I'm getting a similar product on Odds Jam. Not as good. Don Best is still the best. It's tough with us in Vegas.
30:10
The problem, the problem is Don Best is always, it like, at least for now- Got Tom Klein and Scott Westergren... it's still probably the best for Vegas. I agree. Outside of Vegas- I agree...
30:17
uh, yeah, not the best at all. But also Don Best doesn't have nerfees, and I bet, I would say if you pollied up every bet that I make on the 365-day calendar year, I would say maybe half of them are on nerfees.
30:29
[laughs] 'Cause there's just such a heavy volume- Yeah... throughout the course of the regular season. All right, I digress. So there's your recap for July. If you're holding a D-backs ticket, you're feeling okay.
30:39
If you're holding a Mets ticket, you're probably praying that, uh, Zach Gallen gets the flu before this game starts. But, um, August is unique. I did a schedule tally for August last night.
30:50
Um, let me pull it up right now. I, I think if you're looking at August, I think that the most important thing is do you believe that a team...
31:00
'Cause the re- like, the Mets are favored basically in this market, besides the Yankees, but do you think the...
31:06
I don't think the Mets are gonna be favored in all their games, 'cause they're the Mets, and they don't have as high of a power rating as the Yankees and the Padres do, obviously the Dodgers and the Braves.
31:13
Like, all those teams at the top of the list have a higher power rating than the Mets do, but the Mets' schedule is where you're seeing the value here.
31:23
They get three right out of the gate at Anaheim, then a random one at St. Louis, then Colorado, Seattle, Oakland, Miami, tough series against Baltimore. Then they play San Diego basically the last week of the month.
31:38
I think that's intriguing to me. Mm-hmm. Because the other team I like in this market is San Diego, 'cause I think San Diego's schedule's the easiest. Look at how easy San Diego's schedule is.
31:48
This is why I think the Padres probably deserve a little bit of your money, too. Colorado, Pittsburgh, Miami, Pittsburgh, Colorado. [laughs] I mean, that's just... Colorado, Pittsburgh, Miami, Col- Pittsburgh, Colorado.
31:59
You are playing the three worst teams in the National League for 15 games. That is an incredible advantage for San Diego.
32:09
And then the back half of the month, Minnesota, who's a playoff team, the Mets, who we mentioned is an intriguing matchup, and then things get a little tougher at the end of the month at St. Louis, at Tampa Bay.
32:21
Tampa Bay's obviously sellers, but it's still on the road, it's interleague, and obviously four against St. Louis is the toughest series they will have. And I think that St.
32:30
Louis series, um, you're gonna be facing some pretty good pitchers. Sonny Gray, now Eric Fetty, um, and a couple of others, where you might be a dog in, in, in some of those games.
32:39
But I think San Diego's gonna be a favorite in, like, every game this month, with the exception of maybe those few at St. Louis. Whereas the Mets, I don't know if they'll be favored in every game at Seattle.
32:51
They definitely won't be favored against Baltimore, and they probably won't be f- favored at San Diego or at Arizona. Mm-hmm. So there's gonna be a lot of underdog scenarios for the Mets, significantly more
33:04
than the Padres. But I would say right now the Padres are a little more Jekyll and Hyde.
33:08
Also feels like a good chance, uh, I mean, you know, h- h- how much of the, how much of those four, that four-game series could decide this market, you know? I, I mean, those, with two of the top, top favorites.
33:16
We'll tell everybody, I don't think you've made a, a bet yet. No, we'll come back on the other side, we'll give out some selections. Okay. All right. Yep. Great.
33:22
Yeah, well, I, I think, I think I h- I think based off of what I just said, you know where I'm leaning. I think I'm gonna bet two, but I'm gonna bet more on one than the other. Gotcha.
33:31
And we'll have more on that on the other side. A Numbers Game on VSiN continues.
33:35
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:53
What is the biggest question facing each AFC team? You can find out the answers to those questions and more. Michael Lombardi's got a great article posted today about just that.
34:05
It's got a picture of Patrick Mahomes on the front, so I'm assuming the Chiefs are prominently featured, as they should be. Uh, all of that available for you and much more over at vsin.com.
34:14
I was gonna say, if you're not the Kansas City Chiefs, I think the biggest question you have is, "How do we slow down Patrick Mahomes?"
34:20
So I was reading my first, uh, so this is my week, this is my transition week, where I, we were talking about this before the show. Usually, I am a very structured individual.
34:30
My day is very structured, especially at this stage of my life. Um, the evening time for me is kind of a, a mixed bag. Whatever's happening that night, I kind of give myself freedom to explore.
34:43
Um, I call it, like, my, my, my chill time, my wind-down time at the end of the night.
34:48
That now is being fully allocated towards reading NFL previews, and college football previews, but I started with some NFL stuff, um, last night. There's so much great information out there- Oh, yeah...
34:58
not only on vsin.com, um, but, you know, Pick Six preview for college football, um, Warren Sharp for NFL- Mm-hmm... Club TA for NFL. Mm. Um, anything Football Outsiders related, I, I have their almanac.
35:09
Like, all that stuff is just gold. Yeah. Like, it's just gold. And there are so many unique ways that people are tracking football and the NFL these days.
35:21
One of them is how teams are defending certain teams, and that was something I was reading last night, how teams like the Ravens and the Bills have really changed their defensive strategies over the last few years to try to defend Patrick Mahomes.
35:33
And what you're seeing is other, other places, like, other stats are becoming, you know, more prominent, like rush yards.
35:40
Like, teams are having an easier time running the ball on certain defenses because they're trying to- Everybody's playing two high safeties- So it's, so it-... and they're getting beat over the top, yep.
35:48
Everything just changes. Like, the NFL, like, you know, when, when a new, when a new, uh, trend- Yeah... becomes hot and popular- It's a copycat league, man... it's, it- Every, every league is, and it should be...
35:57
and then eventually it switches back. Yep. And it's like you see, like, the macro, and there's some really good, uh, analysts out there who track this stuff.
36:06
And I don't wanna get too much in the weeds, 'cause I think some of it is lost on a lot of our audience.
36:10
I, I think there's, like, just speaking to that quick, i- it is funny 'cause it is, like, I mean, you, you've seen this over the past couple years.
36:17
But yeah, like, and he- Patrick Mahomes, these big-time quarterbacks, and you're getting more of the two high safeties. And yeah, like, it, you automatically think, "Well, it's gonna open things up for the running game."
36:26
But then at the same time, we don't care about running backs anymore. And like, the one I always think about these days is, man, the, what's asked out of linebackers of just, like- Safeties too...
36:35
like, you've gotta be able to man co- you know, walk up a tight end in man coverage- Yep... and then expected to stop the run.
36:41
Like, it's just, it's incredible w- w- what m- a lot of defenses ask out of their top li- top-end linebackers these days. Where, d- are you a big advan- I know that's literally one of the taglines of the show.
36:51
He's one of those idiots that loves advanced analytics. [laughs] Like, where do you, where do you stand on... Because I consider myself a hybrid. Yep.
37:00
I'm not someone who, you know, only looks at that, but I definitely consider EPA, success rate-type stuff when I'm doing my handicapping. Yeah. But it's not, i- I am a mix situational and analytical, I would say.
37:16
I think it's a, it's a large part of what I do, uh, a big, big part, I would say. But also, I think time, time of the year with that stuff matters.
37:25
I think almost a- almost any sport you're handicapping, I think as you transition from a, you know, preseason to early season to mid-season to late season, I think almost everything that you're looking at changes a little bit.
37:36
So, like, that kind of stuff, once we get in season, is super important to me. Um, I think you gotta be a little careful, I think, in the off-season of looking back at, looking back at what teams did a year ago.
37:46
Um, if you're not fully... I- it's great to look at, but, like, you gotta keep in mind how much turnover there's been on rosters and everything like that, and coaching.
37:54
I mean, how much, how many c- how much of a coach... How, what percentage of coaching staffs change yearly now is just incredible.
38:02
And you, you don't know how some of these guys are gonna attack different things till you see it on the field. And that's where I start. So
38:09
the first thing I did yesterday, when I real- again, this is kind of my start, my end of the fiscal year is July. July is the end of my fiscal year. If you're a business person, you know what that means, right?
38:20
Like, it's just, it's when you just take accounting of everything and, you know, turn the page. Um, that's where, that's where I am this week. Like, I started, I really, really started capping.
38:31
And I know you're like, "Oh, it's so late. We're already playing games." I don't care as much about the pre-season preamble. Again, I don't gamble professionally.
38:40
I don't care about getting the best of the number in the off-season. It's just not, it's, it's not my top priority. My top priority is the, doing the shows and doing the content that's in season.
38:51
So right around this time, the first step that I do is I go through each team, coach, head coach, offensive coordin- or really who calls the plays on both sides, and quarterbacks, and then I grade them.
39:01
I rank them, right? And then from there, I kind of s- you know, stretch it out to another s- is there any actionable stuff here? Am I betting anything?
39:07
I did put out a few futures in NFL that I like based off of some information that I got in the off-season.
39:12
But in terms of my preparation for learning the, you know, the learning curve of a new season and who the people are that are going to be the decision-makers on each team,
39:25
that is, is like a, it's like you, you, you learn how to walk again. Because you're right, Kelly. Yeah. It changes so much.
39:33
Certain teams adapt new systems, old coordinators and new sy- like, it's really hard to keep track of it all, honestly. And imagine if there was more teams. In college football, it's even harder.
39:45
So I, I, I think this is, uh, this is an important time for anyone that really wants to have success during the regular season. Doesn't mean you have to bet the pre-season, but you have to do your work now. Yep.
39:56
You can't start doing your work week one. Then you're really up against it. Yeah. I feel like I'm behind, and it's not even August yet.
40:03
I can't imagine if you're picking this up Labor Day weekend and saying, "All right, let's get up to speed. Week one, starting." It's gotta be really tough. Yeah, no, totally. Yeah, you got, you got...
40:10
If you're, if you're betting it all season lo- I mean, obviously, if you're betting futures, like, this is, you're probably, you're already way late. [laughs] You're way late. That's why- Yeah. [laughs]... I don't bet.
40:17
Have you noticed over the years, do you bet more or less futures now in NFL? Uh, it, it- I bet less now than I did 10 years ago. So here's, i- it's a great question.
40:25
I would say that, uh, quantity, I'm betting, I am betting making more bets, but I'm making them for less amount of money. Interesting.
40:32
Because we spend all summer talking about NFL, and it's so easy to talk yourself into futures bets. Uh, when we go back with, back and forth with smart people having conversations about teams- Agreed with that...
40:43
it's so easy to make a great case, uh, and buy into that.
40:46
But I, you know, I, there's definitely been years recently where I look back and I'm like, "I have way too much inve- uh, way too, way too many futures bets going." So yeah, I b- I'll bet a lot, but there are always...
40:56
Like, there'll be multiple games a year that I have more b- more money on [laughs] than what I have on a futures ticket. Yeah, it's a good debate.
41:02
I've had this chat with some pro gambler friends, and they all said that you should not be betting more on a futures bet just because the time horizon's longer. Yeah. A bet's a bet.
41:13
I, I've had conversations with people that say, "Unless you are a precise rater, analyst-type person, and you can actually, you know, quantify what your edge is, your best option is just to go flat on everything and never
41:28
raise the units or lower the units based off of conviction in any sense."
41:33
I'm, the more I gamble in, in life, the more I'm in that boat, because I'm never going to be a person that's gonna have a specific edge quantification. It's just n- uh, it's just not something I'm probably gonna do.
41:46
Um, because I think it requires just an incredible amount of math every single day, and it's just not, based off of the shows, prep, and everything, it's just, I don't think it's something that I'm ever gonna have access to.
41:56
Maybe one day I will, but right now in my current, uh, in this current reality we live in, I'm probably a one... I would say, what, one to three units do you ever go?
42:05
The only time I ever go more than, like, five units is usually my max, max, max, but that's only for... I ha- I actually do have a futures bet that's five units, Patriots under. But-
42:14
Usually I'm not like a 10, 15 unit whale guy. That ain't my thing. Yeah, every once in a while. I think that there is- 10 units? I, I think there is a, uh, there's a time and place for you to, uh, unload the clip.
42:26
I think when you see- Wow... when you see the best of it, you got, you gotta get your money in the middle.
42:29
Like, like Oregon money line against Colorado last year when they, when they had it priced- Yeah, that would've been a good one...
42:34
like, like Oregon was like a 10-point favorite and they really were like a 21-point favorite. Um, I bet you guys talked about a, that a lot last year. I know Crack was, uh, was hot and heavy on that one.
42:44
That was one of my favorite bets of, uh, last college football season. All right.
42:47
Um, speaking of unit sizing, this is a good transition because I am gonna make two bets in the, uh, most wins market, but I'm gonna split the baby. I'm gonna go a full unit on the Padres.
42:59
Full unit on the Padres at plus 750, because they're gonna be favored in more of their games, and I think they're the hottest team in baseball right now. I love the moves they made at the deadline.
43:08
Um, they are very Jekyll and Hyde, but frankly that, that actually sets up well for them to be a, a, a one-month, uh, darling here. I think the Mets are a half a unit for me.
43:18
The reason is the number moved down significantly from where the best of it was. I think you guys said 20-1 is where it opened. I'm not gonna chase a bad number with a full unit. Uh, I do like the Mets.
43:27
Obviously it's the sharper play here, um, in this month, but I think the number is not very sharp, and that's why I'm only gonna go a half a unit on the Mets.
43:35
But I want a piece of the Metros because when that Mets-Padres series comes to fruition in August- Yeah...
43:43
late August, basically the 21st of August when that's here, I want action on both sides of that because I don't know where the n- I, I don't know where we're gonna be at, and I think there's a chance the Padres could fall off a cliff.
43:53
[laughs] They very well could fall off a cliff. No, makes sense. Makes sense. Gil has made a bet. I know there's a lot of people bugging me about this. Um, there are... Or asking me, not bugging. You're never bugging me.
44:01
Um- [laughs] No, you suck. You bug me... Gil, Gil has made a bet. He is in on the Mets. He bet it at 20 to 1. It opened here at Circa. 20. Uh, he bet it again at 10 to 1, uh, the other day.
44:11
So he is in on the Mets for the month of August. It is Gil Alexander, MLB most wins bet of the month. I'm with you, Gil. Go Metros. Dave Ross, shout out. Um, hopefully your team doesn't let us down this month.
44:23
But that's why I backed it up with the Padres, too, 'cause I love the Heavenly Fathers. All right, we've got our own Heavenly Father up next, Frank Schwab, Yahoo Sports. Numbers game. Peace in. [upbeat music]
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A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
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Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
