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Jul 31, 2024
A Numbers Game | July 31, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | July 31, 2024 | Hour 2
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44:33
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on Vsion. All right, we are back, top of the hour.
0:11
Last hour, best hour, Numbers Game on Vsion. Jarret in for Gil. Kelly with us as well.
0:16
Joining us now on the Progressive guest line, very excited to talk to this gentleman, uh, as I always am, Frank Schwab covers the NFL and sports betting for Yahoo Sports. Cover him or follow him on X, @YahooSchwab.
0:28
Um, Frank, great to talk to you today. Let's start with, um, who I think is gonna be one of the, one of the very, uh, intriguing teams in the NFL this year, and that's the Detroit Lions.
0:36
I've got them top five across the board in almost every single, um, uh, uh, uh, positional unit. I mean, they are stacked, especially up front on offensive line.
0:45
You can make the case that quarterback may be a little bit outside of that. But I, I think Jared Goff and this system with Ben Johnson, they are ready to roll.
0:53
Getting Ben Johnson back, I mean, he's the best OC in the league right now. Um, it, uh, hopes high. Are they sky high for the Lions? Should we have Super Bowl expectations here? Sky, sky high for me, I'll tell you that.
1:06
I, I, I published my Lions preview yesterday, and at the end I said they were my pick to win Super Bowl LIV.
1:11
As crazy as that sounds, this is literally the first time in an off-season where we could say with a straight face that the Detroit Lions are Super Bowl contenders. Wow. Right? Like, it's never really happened before.
1:22
They were okay in the Barry Sanders era and all that, but this is probably the best Lions team since 1957. And, uh, to, I mean, all the reasons you said. Uh, they're, they're stacked everywhere.
1:33
Best offensive line in football. Amon-Ra St. Brown is probably a top five receiver at this point, uh, 10 at worst. Two good running backs. I mean, uh, Sam LaPorta was a r- a record-setting tight end.
1:44
And then you look, and I really, really like their off-season. They said, "Look, our cornerbacks aren't good enough. We gave up 69 plays of 20 yards or more in the pass game." That was by far the most in the league.
1:55
Uh, the Chiefs, for example, tied for the league lead in 39 20-yard [laughs] pass plays given up. So the Lions needed to, to shore up cornerback, and they went out and got four of them.
2:03
So I really like what the Lions did this off-season. And to, uh, to take your point a step further, my favorite bet of the off-season might be Jared Goff to win MVP. Yep. I, I...
2:13
Look, if I love the Lions, we know the formula. As, as bettors, we understand. We're not betting on who I think should win MVP. It's who's going to win MVP.
2:22
Voters have simply told us, take the top seed in each conference, it's gonna be one of those quarterbacks. That's what's happened each of the last eight years. It's happened 12 of the last 15 years.
2:32
And I think the Lions are gonna be the number one seed in the NFC, and that gives Jared Goff a much better chance to win MVP than the 25 to one odds that they have him, they have him at now, 35 to one where I got him at earlier in the off-season.
2:42
I love this Lions team. I'm, I'm all in on them. Yeah, that's a numbers bet. Like, the, the Lions right now are the- Oh... third favorite in the NFC. You can make a case that they're kind of on par with the Eagles.
2:51
The Niners are still the prohibitive favorite, even though I'm a little more down on San Francisco than maybe most because of their offensive line.
2:58
Um, but the fact that, that Jared Goff was, like, the 10th, 11th, 12th quarterback on the MVP list, yet the Lions have that better of a chance to be the number one seed. And like you said, I, I had it tracked.
3:09
It's seven consecutive years a number one seed, that quarterback- Seven, okay, yeah... has won the MVP. You might be right. I might have been missing one, uh, year al- along the line there, but it, it...
3:20
The voters have spoken. Like, if you finish as the number one seed, that quarterback is going to win MVP. I mean, that's just kind of the way the NFL has been over the last decade or so.
3:31
Um, speaking of players that maybe have a chance to win MVP, although I think it's an outside shot, 'cause I don't know h- how high I am on Deshaun Watson this year, but man, the Cleveland Browns, the roster is so set.
3:43
It's just the questions at quarterback. I love the coach. He was coach of the year last year with one of the worst quarterback situations you could possibly imagine.
3:51
You think the Browns with Watson or without Watson are going to be a Super Bowl contender this year? Absolutely.
3:59
I, I'm, I'm gonna be picking the Lions over the Browns in the Super Bowl, which must mean the apocalypse is gonna happen- [laughs]... in mid-February, right? Because I love this Browns team.
4:08
I don't get why the betting market is so low on them. I get... Look, uh, uh, just look, Deshaun Watson's not gonna win MVP, period. Like, he could throw for 9,000 yards and he's not gonna get voted MVP.
4:18
I could tell you that right now. Just will not happen. But it doesn't matter for what I'm taking, which is a team that won 11 games last year with absolutely horrible quarterback play at some points.
4:28
I, I mean, they were just miserable at quarterback. And the market has them, I, I believe they're over-under still eight and a half. I took it early, so I haven't seen any movements in that.
4:37
You're telling me that Deshaun Watson r- guiding that team, the Browns are gonna be three wins worse this year? I don't see that at all. People are so... Like, I get Deshaun Watson's a villain.
4:47
He's a, a guy nobody wants to root for. But I think that gets into people's heads a little bit too much. I'm just trying to win a bet here, right? Like, and I look at Deshaun Watson, he's 28 years old.
4:57
A few years ago, he was a top seven quarterback in the NFL. Six, seven, wherever you wanna slot him, he was there. I think he can get back to close to that level. I don't think he's gonna get back to that level again.
5:07
But can he be 10th-best quarterback in the NFL, 12th-best quarterback in the NFL? I think if his shoulder's healthy, yes, the answer is yes.
5:14
Again, not a likable guy, not a guy I'm gonna go buy his jersey or anything but- [laughs]... I think he could be better than Joe Flacco last year.
5:21
We, we had this weird deal with Joe Flacco where we acted like he just had the fountain of youth. Well, maybe it was because he was playing with a ridiculously loaded team around him.
5:31
Great offensive line, really good receivers, a really good tight end, best defense in the league maybe last year. So very, very high on the Browns this year.
5:39
I, I love their odds to win the division, love their over, love them to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Anything you can give me positive on the Browns, I'm taking it, because I really, really like this team.
5:49
I think the best, um, the best argument for betting the Browns this year is the Deshaun Watson angst. Because that- Will translate to better numbers throughout the course of the season, betting on him.
6:04
Because you're right, there is a negative, um, connotation with him right now. And doesn't always, it's not always gonna work out that way, Frank.
6:12
But for the most part, when you're the villain, when you're the enemy, uh, the public is gonna be against you.
6:17
And, and some weeks, that, that might, that might, uh, uh, transpire or it might manifest itself with, with maybe getting some, you know, maybe a half a point, uh, on average, uh, better on the Browns, uh, against the spread week to week, just based off of the bias against Cleveland.
6:32
So it's a very interesting point. And their, I mean, their roster, I mean, goodness gracious, the defense is absolutely fantastic. Ooh.
6:37
[laughs] Um, the schedule too, especially in the beginning part of the season, I mean, that game against Dallas is tough, but then Jacksonville, Giants, Raiders, Commanders, and then they're gonna be a dog at Philly.
6:46
And then they really get into the meat of the North there with the Bengals and the, uh, and the Ravens back to back weeks. Things get tough down the stretch too.
6:53
You get, um, at Cincinnati verse Kansas City there in week 15. That's gonna be a really interesting game.
6:59
And then of course, you finish the season at Baltimore, um, which is always, uh, who knows, that could be for the division title on the line between the Browns and the Ravens there in week 18.
7:09
All right, let's, uh, move on to another team that I, very near and dear to my heart, the New York Jets. I am...
7:15
I, I'm praying, I'm praying, Frank, that there can be some kind of a, of a comeuppance because Aaron Rodgers... And, and here's my crazy theory. Tell me if you think I'm, I'm off base.
7:26
I think Aaron Rodgers is, uh, is a little bit miffed at Jordan Love's contract, and he's gonna, he's gonna stick it to the Packers and be like, "Hey, listen, you won't pay this guy, I'm gonna show you this."
7:35
And I'm not saying he needs any more extra motivation, but anything to get Aaron Rodgers more fired up for a season I think is good for the Jets.
7:42
Where are you on the Jets this year and, and, and the head space of their, uh, quarterback? Yeah, another team I really like, and it's the same exact story.
7:51
And it's been the same exact story for the Jets the last couple seasons where just give them average quarterback play and what can they do? They were, as you know, absolutely, positively miserable at- Ugh...
8:00
quarterback last year. Dead last in the league at passer rating, and that passed the eye test. If... They were unwatchable, absolutely unwatchable week after week.
8:07
Can Aaron Rodgers, a- again, using the kind of, m- uh, nebulous ranking system, can Aaron Rodgers be the 15th best quarterback in the NFL?
8:15
Well, if he is, that is such a massive upgrade for the Jets that I don't see how they don't walk to double digit wins. Uh, I mean, Aaron Rodgers, look, he's coming off a serious injury.
8:24
He's gonna be 41 years old in December. He wasn't great his last season in Green Bay. He was good. He wasn't great. So do we see Aaron Rodgers hit a wall? Maybe, but I, I, I d- I do like the Jets too.
8:35
And man, I, eh, I'm just sitting here talking about the Lions, Browns, and Jets. What am I doing? Like [laughs] this is- Yeah, I don't know... three of the most miserable franchises there are.
8:42
But how could you not like the Jets? I really thought it was illuminating that Pro Football Focus ranked all the units in the NFL, right? Running backs, and tight ends, and offensive line, and all that.
8:51
The number one defensive line for Pro Football Focus was the New York Jets. The number one linebacker core for Pro Football Focus was the New York Jets. The number one secondary in the NFL- Yeah...
9:00
f- for [laughs] Pro Football Focus was the New York Jets. I don't agree with all that, but they're not worse than top five in any of those. This defense is gonna be awesome. Garrett Wilson's awesome.
9:08
I got some Breece Hall Offensive Player of the Year tickets already. I think this team's gonna be really, really good. I do think they win the AFC East. I, I, I still like the Bills too.
9:16
I think the pendulum swung too far on the Bills.
9:18
But this Jets team, there's really no reason, especially when you look at their early season schedule, they can't get off to a good start, get some confidence in what they're doing, and just say, "Wow, w- you know, we were going 7 and 10 with zero quarterback play.
9:32
We have a four-time MVP playing quarterback now. We're actually pretty good, and we can make a run at this thing." Hey, Frank, I think I'm looking at the AFC East, uh, you know, basically the same way a- as you.
9:41
Wh- where does that l- leave you with the Dolphins?
9:43
'Cause to me, they are one of the teams I, I think I've got some concerns and questions about in the AFC that's, uh, that's higher up there when it comes to win totals, division odds, et cetera.
9:54
Yeah, didn't love their off-season. I, I mean, three free agents switched teams and got $100 million contracts, and two of them left the Dolphins. Now, w- look, Robert Hunt was overpaid. Christian Wilkins was overpaid.
10:04
But those are still [laughs] big losses for the Dolphins. And they were already a team I was looking to fade because something we talked about all last season, we're gonna bring it up again, quality wins.
10:13
They just didn't beat anybody. Yeah, they beat the Cowboys on a last second field goal at home. That was their only good win all year.
10:19
That leads me to believe that they're just beating up the Broncos of the world, right? Yeah, you could blast the Patriots, and there's some skill in that. I get that. I, I, I like the Dolphins.
10:27
I'm not sitting here telling you the Dolphins are gonna be 6 and 11 or anything, but I have a hard time, uh, getting behind them. They're a team I'm gonna be fading early in the season if they're playing a good team.
10:36
If they're playing a bad team, you could probably take them. But I, I just, I'm, I'm kind of, yes, I'm fading the Dolphins. Don't love their off-season. Don't love the fact that they couldn't beat good teams last year.
10:45
Don't love the fade at the end of the year, even though there were a lot of injuries involved there. I just, it...
10:49
Look, if I'm high on the Jets, and I think everybody's too low on the Bills, I g- I gotta fade the Dolphins, right? Yep. Yeah, I, I think the Bills are the one team that I'm undecided on.
10:58
I think the Dolphins, I feel like- They're really good... I'm, I'm pretty, I'm pretty, yeah, I'm just a little concerned with the defense. I can't, I, I can't go against the Bills as long as Josh Allen's there.
11:07
Like, that- That's fair. Yeah, that's fair... that's just the way I feel. I think he's that special. They were a good team.
11:10
And don't, don't overrate that Stefon Diggs trade, because Diggs was a ghost for them the l- last two-thirds of last season. That's fair. I think that they're gonna figure it out, and Josh Allen's Superman.
11:18
So they, they're coming from a place where they were really, really good, so even if they take a step back, they're still gonna be good.
11:23
It's fair to say that the Stefon Diggs trade could be in the Tyreek Hill, where we were overvaluing it, and then the Chiefs came, and they won the Super Bowl the next year. Frank Schwab, appreciate the time, pal.
11:33
Always good catching up. Thank you. We'll come back. More AFC East. We'll dive more into the Bills. Maybe I'm not looking at the Bills properly. I'll take another look next on The Numbers Game.
11:42
[upbeat rock music]VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:00
Hey, guess what? The college football betting guide is out tomorrow. I wouldn't lie to you. Why would I lie about something like that?
12:07
You can find all the information, all of the action, it's all available for you at vsin.com. You need a pro subscription, though, so please sign up for that. Um, we've got all kinds of stuff.
12:17
The betting guide, of course, is your all-access pass, uh, to VSiN best bets, betting tools, and daily articles if you sign up today at vsin.com/subscribe.
12:26
I actually have two, uh, bets in the VSiN, uh, college football betting guide. Both of them are at plus money. Um, not heavy plus money. Oh- I gave out one of them yesterday. We said Alabama- Yeah...
12:36
was gonna make the playoff. I found that at plus 105, and then the other bet that I made was a, a, a win total, which I will reveal tomorrow. Ba, ba, bum.
12:44
Um, yeah, we won't get too crazy today because obviously, uh, obviously it's coming out tomorrow.
12:49
So, uh, vsinpro.com- or vsinpro, uh, subscription gets you the betting guide, which is out tomorrow, and, uh, we will reveal more college football, um, then. But let's go back to the NFL.
13:00
AFC East, so we were talking about this a little bit in the last segment with Frank. I- I'll, I'll kind of, uh, rehash it now. I, I do have the Jets in front of the Bills in terms of my AFC East power ratings.
13:11
I don't think that's crazy, yeah.
13:13
I- I don't think it's a big, you know, gap between those two teams, but I do view the Bill's defense as a question mark, and I viewed the Bills as a question mark last year, and frankly, halfway through the year I was right.
13:26
They were six and six, and then they went on a awesome run at the end of the year. Obviously Miami faltered, um, and Buffalo was able to win the division.
13:35
But I, I think you, you, you're basically running back the same win total, same scenario this year, and I think the team is worse.
13:42
And I know you can make the argument that we are overvaluing, um, Stefon Diggs's value to the team, but what about Gabe Davis's value? Like, you know, you have a lot of reps to fill on the offensive side of the ball.
13:55
I, I think Josh Allen's still elite and I'm not gonna, um, be betting against him too many weeks, but the win total being pretty much the same as last year, and I don't think the team improved itself.
14:06
They just barely got over last year, right? Like, their win total was 10... I don't know if their win total was 10 and a half last year. I'm assuming it was somewhere in that vicinity.
14:13
This year it's 10 and a half, and they needed every ounce of the season to get to 11 last year, and they did deal with a lot of injury, uh, uh, unluck. Um, but they had one of the easier schedules last season. Mm-hmm.
14:26
This year it's a tougher schedule, significantly tougher. Um, Clep TA's got them as the third toughest schedule out of 32 teams. You open the year with a couple of cupcakes, Jacksonville and Arizona.
14:36
You'll be favored in those games. So there's your excuse to bet the overs, 'cause the season starts easily. Although that game at Miami in September is no cupcake.
14:44
You- you're probably gonna be dealing with 100-degree sidelines because Miami's gonna take the shaded side of the field as they normally do in those early season games, uh, in South Florida.
14:54
But then you go at Baltimore, at Houston, at the Jets. I mean, you can make a case they start two and four if they don't win that game at Miami. Yeah.
15:02
You still high on the Bills even after looking at those first six games? Yeah. I, I, I am. I am.
15:07
I, I think, um, I think your comp to Kansas City with Tyreek Hill leaving is, is interesting because I think that with all the stories that start... I mean, when did those even start?
15:17
Pre-season last year about Diggs and Allen and there being issues and stuff. I mean, uh, Dig- I mean, Diggs still ended up having a, you know, pretty good season and 107 catches for, you know, 1100 yards.
15:29
Um, that's not too bad obviously. But, um, I think there's a chance chemistry-wise and what was going on in that locker room, that this wide receiver, uh, turnover, it probably doesn't happen right away.
15:42
I think by the end of the season we could be talking about how the wide receiver in the receiving situation, especially with the tight ends that they have, is better than what they had in 2023. And I'm not...
15:51
You brought it up, so this is why I'm gonna go off on it, but it's the, it's, it's not about you, Jared, it's about that I've heard this 17 times this off-season. Who the hell cares about losing Gabe Davis?
16:03
What has Gabe Davis ever done in the NFL for us to be sitting here and talk about like he's a massive loss? It is, it's amazing how many times I've heard that this off-season. [laughs] I'm just like, "What? Who cares?"
16:14
Like, there's other wide receivers out there you can plug in immediately and get the kind of production that Gabe Davis has brought to the table. So I... That...
16:20
Diggs, I think we can, we can have arguments and discussions over. Gabe Davis, I think it's no problem replacing him. And, um, I'm always gonna be bullish on Josh Allen.
16:29
It's just, I think when we talk this division overall, um, I, because of him I'm almost ne- unless it's the Bills, I'm almost never gonna have a bet on a team to win the division.
16:40
But I, overall pow- power ratings for me, yes, I have the Jets above the Bills. I'm with you. I think that they have a, I think they have the chance. Think about what Frank was talking about last segment.
16:49
This is, this is how low the bars are for Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson, right? Like, the teams are so good. Hey, Deshaun Watson, if you can beat Joe Flacco fresh off- Don't suck...
17:00
fresh off the couch, you're gonna make the team better. Like, that's the lowest bar possible. And for Aaron Rodgers, I mean, it's obviously he has high expectations w- from a year ago coming in there.
17:11
But it's like, hey, if you can be better [laughs] than Zach Wilson and stuff. Like, you're talking about this team being a, which, o- obviously a playoff team and then who knows from there.
17:20
So I think Aaron Rodgers, if he's a middle of the road quarterback this year, I think we're potent- potentially talking about this Jets team as being one of the very few in the NFL that's a top five offense and top five defense.
17:32
Yeah. And that's, that's gonna put them in, in, in a rare category. My guess is the Bills have weeks where they look like the best team in the league, and they have weeks where they look like the worst.
17:42
I just, that's just the Josh Allen I think that I've been used to over the years- Yeah, I think that's fair. I think that's fair... is the Jekyll and Hyde. I'll give you this to back up your Davis and Diggs take.
17:51
This is a great stat and it's by, it's from Clep TA's NFL preview, which by the way is completely free. Um- Yeah, great, great resource. Yeah You need to read, you need to read this.
17:59
This is one of the things that's on my essentials every, every year, and I'm about halfway through it right now.
18:04
But, you know, the Bills are in the B category, so I'm, [laughs] uh, and he does it in alphabetical order, so I read this one, uh, uh, last night. [laughs] I did, I did the same thing with all those guides.
18:13
It's the same way. Alphabetical order. Like, I have notes up until this letter. [laughs] I'm not, I'm not to Tennessee or Washington yet. [laughs] I'm not, I'm not there yet.
18:21
Uh, I'll be there by the end of the week, though. Um- Davis and Diggs did not gain over 87 yards in a single game after week six, and they were ranked 51st among wide receivers in yards per route run- Yeah...
18:33
during that stretch. So they were- I, I mean-... not this game-breaking duo. The irony is, that's when the Bills made their run during that stretch, when Davis and Diggs were not giving them quality output. Yeah. Yeah.
18:44
Well, and I think that's also where you've seen, you know, Dalton Kincaid come on. Like, I th- That's the key name you need... I think he's gonna have a monster- Yes, he is. He- Keon Coleman better have a big year too.
18:51
Someone's gotta catch the ball. I mean, you're g- you're gonna see a lot of double, two tight end sets with them, right? 'Cause you're gonna be rolling out Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid. Yeah, a lot of 12 personnel.
18:59
You can be able to do that. Yeah. And, and look, you know, I'm a Florida State guy. I love Keon Coleman. Yes, I have some bets on him Rookie of the Year when it first opened. But I'm also...
19:07
Like, he's a guy that I don't... You know, much like a former FSU wide [laughs] receiver that the Bills drafted, Kelvin Benjamin, like, I think there's a big boom or bust possibility there.
19:17
Like, I'm not- First round receivers are typically boom or bust. Yeah. I'll tell you what, Marvin Harrison's gonna be a boom. Yeah. I bet him Offensive Player, Offensive Rookie of the Year.
19:26
I would even consider Offensive [laughs] Player of the Year, um, because the Cardinals defense is gonna be so bad. But all right, let's, let's- And, and I li- I liked Frank's bet on Breece Hall for Offensive Player.
19:35
I love that. That's another one I've been staring at. Like- I put a little bit on Diggs too. You did? He's at 125 to one. Okay. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. His best year with Buffalo was his first year.
19:43
He can have that kind of year with Houston- Sure. Yeah... his first year. If he leads the league in receiving this year- I mean, he- He led, he led the league in receiving his first year with Buffalo.
19:50
Yeah, I mean, again, like, his counting stats are not, like- Not bad... I, like, whenever I'm talking about the receiving corps, they're still good.
19:56
Like, I mean, you're talking about he's, he's hasn't played in less than 15 games since 2017, so a pretty dur- a pretty durable, reliable guy that we're talking about. I like Bobby Slowik a lot too.
20:08
If we're grading- Yeah... if we're grading offensive coordinators, I put Bobby Slowik almost in the top tier with Ben Johnson. Mm.
20:14
Whereas I don't put Joe Brady, who was the guy who replaced Ken Dorsey mid-season last year, in that same tier.
20:20
Yeah, I mean, uh, l- look, we, we, I think we talked about a bit on Monday- Joe Brady's the Bills OC, by the way... I think we talked about a bit on Monday.
20:26
I mean, I think the whole conversation that we're having now about this division is why you [laughs] and I are s- part of the reason why we're so low on the New England Patriots.
20:33
Um- Oh, the Patriots are the dregs of the kegs this year. Yeah, it is. It is. I have, I have laddered my bets, by the way, since our conversation last time. You go under three now?
20:40
So I, I, I am under win total, I am fewest wins, and I am, I am last winless team now on the New England Patriots. I like it.
20:47
Um, a- and we were talking during the break, Dolphins, the Dolphins to miss the playoff number just keeps, it keeps- Plus money, right?... jumping out to me. It's like plus 135.
20:55
I just think there's, the concerns they have on defense, are we positive they're gonna be able to replicate that same level of success they had offensively a year ago? Health. Health. Health.
21:05
I mean, it, Frank talked about the schedule. They are, in my opinion, the most fragile- I agree. I think so... of the teams. They are like the Chi- the fine china you only bring out- Yeah... Thanksgiving dinner.
21:17
And, like, your mom's like, "Don't, don't be too rough with it, 'cause it might break." It's v- it's gorgeous, it's beautiful, it's polished, it's premium- Mm-hmm... but it's very fragile. No, I, I, I get you. I get you.
21:28
That, uh, th- and that team... And I think the AFC playoff picture's, like, for me at least, it's, it right now, I mean, uh, injuries will de- derail this. This is part of betting the NFL.
21:38
But, like, to me, like, the N- like, the AFC playoff picture, okay, [laughs] it's, it's probably you're looking at three options from the AFC North, three options from the AFC East, and those are gonna be your wild card teams amongst those, you know, the four teams that aren't division winners there.
21:54
And then it's gonna be the AFC South and the Ch- uh, whoever wins the AFC South and the Chiefs.
21:58
[laughs] So, like, I'm, you know, there's going to be one of these teams, whether it's the, you know, if I think the Bengals are winning the division, okay, whether it's the Ravens the- Ravens, the Browns- Dolphins to miss is a good bet...
22:09
Bills or Dolphins, one of those teams is missing the playoffs. Dolphins to miss at plus money is a good bet. Yeah, that's, I, I understand.
22:15
I, I, I think the division that the Dolphins play in is the toughest division in the NFL this year. I honestly do. Um, just because I think the Bills- I think it's the North, but it's obviously one of those two...
22:25
Bills and the Chiefs. It's, it's AFC North, AFC East again. Yeah. I'm a little down on Watson and the Browns. Maybe I'm, maybe I'm being... I, I guess I'm m- I'm a hater today.
22:33
I'm down on the Bills, I'm down on the Browns. I'm just a big old hater. Well, let's carry that over next segment. We'll carry- 'Cause that's- We'll talk Browns next segment... I have Watson thoughts too. All right.
22:40
We'll continue the NFL talk on the other side. VSiN, Numbers Game. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Jarrett Inforgill here on a hump day Numbers Game.
22:58
We appreciate the time, joining us here on VSiN, uh, downtown Las Vegas at the D. Kelly Bidlin hanging with us as usj. Um, all right, let's get into the Browns, Kelly, 'cause you kinda teased me, uh, in the break.
23:10
So I'm just, I don't love this Browns team. I love the roster, but I don't like the way that the team is kind of constructed on offense.
23:19
They are very reliant, I think, on their running back, Nick Chubb, who's, by the way, gonna start the year on the PUP list, um, as we expect- Oh...
23:27
because that was a gruesome injury he suffered last year, and I'll be honest, I'll be surprised if he's back to 100% this year. So you're relying, I think, on a backup running back for most of the season.
23:36
And, and listen, th- they have depth, they're a good offensive line, they're a great defense. Elite, I would say top five defense. But what are you getting from Deshaun Watson?
23:45
I think if you get average from Deshaun Watson, you've got a chance to make the playoffs. I think if you get what I have Deshaun Watson graded as right now, which is a bottom 10 quarterback,
23:56
I think that's where the Browns are a 500 team. Yeah. But I'm wrong all the time. Tell me why I'm wrong on the Browns.
24:02
Well, I mean, well, and it's the ultimate question to me, uh, uh, on this team, and this is where, I, I mean, I think Frank put, put it pretty well, where, like, they're, just the bar is so low for, for what [laughs] Aaron Rodgers needs to do in New York and what Deshaun Watson needs to do here.
24:16
My, I, I do think the roster is pretty damn, damn good. It is really good. I, I think the- In the trenches they're great. Yeah.
24:21
I think the, I think the Chubb, I do think the Chubb point is not being brought up enough of like, "Hey, yeah, like, yeah, we can't be sure of what we're gonna get, get outta him when he gets back." No idea.
24:30
Um, I do think the wide receiving group is underrated. It's very good. I, I, I think they've been constantly underrated for the past couple years. Cooper and they add Judy. Yeah.
24:37
And they add Judy, which, like, I think can only be looked at as kind of, eh, whatever you, like, whatever you get, if there's an upside there, great. He's a number two.
24:44
He w- uh, he was asked to be a one, now he's asked to be a two. Right. Exactly. Um, so i- I think that will be interesting to monitor, but I think this defense is, is amazing. Um, I think there's a lot to like here.
24:54
It's just- W- Watson, I don't know. I don't know. And I, like, w- I wanted to try to ask Frank that. We just ran out of time with him.
25:01
But I'm like, like, when I looked at last year, a- and this is where it, it, it gets tough as a bettor too, 'cause you can't get too much in this mindset that I'm about to [laughs] go to right now.
25:09
But I'm like, well, I was as high o- uh, on Deshaun Watson as anybody, that, w- that last big year in Houston he had. So these coup- past couple years in Cleveland,
25:20
I thought I was gonna see a lot better than what we've seen.
25:22
A- and yes, I know you could, you could tell me that he was dealing with multiple injuries last year, and I know that's true, but man, I just don't think you've seen a lot of inspiring play out of him at all in Cleveland so far.
25:34
And I, and I'm with you. I think what you said, Jared, it's, it's... I think if you're talking m- like, he's mid NFL quarterback, this, this is a playoff team. I don't, I don't- Yeah. Oh, 100%.
25:45
I just- If he's mid-tier quarterback, they're a playoff team... I just don't know for sure that I can say that he's there. Like, I'm with you. I don't know that, that, that I can say that as of right now. He's not there.
25:55
And w- and, and I said this to you during the break.
25:56
I think one of, one of the things that I guess is a good thing for Cleveland, but like, is probably not a good thing for Deshaun Watson, [laughs] is one thing Cleveland knows now, they know for sure that they can win bowl games [laughs] without Deshaun Watson.
26:10
Yes. I mean, they pulled Joe Flacco off a couch last year, uh, a- and sailed into the playoffs. So I, I don't... I- it's a fascinating season for Cleveland. I know there are some people very, very high on this team.
26:21
I get it, 'cause I think the roster talent is there. But quarterback matters so much in this league, I've just, I still have lingering questions over Watson. I have major questions about the quarterback.
26:31
Here's the schedule. So they open with the Cowboys at home. They're a slight favorite in that game. I would be willing to bet that they win that game. I think they win that game. Yeah, me too.
26:40
And then I think probably the- Da- Dallas stumbling into the season here. [laughs] Yeah. I'm not a big Dallas guy heading into the year either. Um, but they still open with fo- four out of their first six on the road.
26:50
I mean, I know that there's not, that's not a gauntlet schedule there. Jags, Giants, Raiders, here in Vegas. Yeah. Commies, Eagles. The Eagles game obviously will be tough.
26:59
That's their, the game they're, they're the biggest dogs in- S- so Jacksonville Heat, week two... pretty much all season. Yeah. Jacksonville Heat in week two. That ain't no joke. Yep.
27:07
You're dealing with the crazies here in Vegas. I don't think Cleveland's, uh... Th- they'll, they'll travel well, but not as well as other teams travel here, but they'll travel well here. But, yeah, yeah.
27:16
I think, I think- I think that's well said, though... Pit- I think Pittsburgh and Green Bay are the fir- and Kansas City- Good point. Yeah...
27:21
are the three teams that come to mind that when they play here, it's, like, basically yellow and red. Oh, s- and San Francisco. Yes. Yeah. Who doesn't come here often, but when they do come here, I totally agree.
27:31
'Cause that one surprised me a bit w- yeah. When they put, they put last year in- No, no, no, you're right. A- anything, frankly, anything California. Yeah. Anything California. Yeah. Good point.
27:36
When the Chargers come here, when the Raider... I mean, [laughs] when the Raiders come here. They are here. [laughs] Uh, when the Rams come here, um, anything LA related, um, always is gonna sell here.
27:46
Um, and obviously anything San Francisco. The Niners more than the Raider. Or the Niners more than the Rams and the Chargers- Mm...
27:51
I think just because I think the Niners have a more established fan base than the Chargers- Yeah... and the Rams do.
27:56
Um, or I guess a more historically, um, uh, significant fan base, um, because they haven't moved around, you know, 10 times in the last five years. Obviously I'm hyperbole, but you get the point. Um, there's,
28:08
there's a chance I think they go over their win total. What is it? Nine and a half? Eight and a half. Yeah, I think nine wins seems right for me.
28:15
I think a good year, I think an average year from Deshaun Watson means an average year from the Browns.
28:20
Like, I think they will go as far as their quar- And this, this isn't Ri- I'm not r- reinventing the wheel here by saying this. Most teams will go as far as their quarterback takes them. Last year was weird.
28:31
Last year was an anomaly.
28:33
I would not bet on last year happening again, which is Deshaun Watson falters for injury or, or, you know, quality, and the production they get from the backups are better, [laughs] better than what you would've gotten from most starting level, uh, quarterbacks.
28:50
That is why Kevin Stefanski won Coach of the Year. And to put that in context, Coach of the Year is one of the few awards that follows the script. If you do this, you will likely- Yeah... win it. Yep.
29:05
The script was literally followed to a T last year for DeMeco Ryans. Worst to first, rookie quarterback. Everything was, "He is the Coach of the Year." I p- In any normal year, he's the Coach of the Year. Not last year.
29:19
Yeah. I pulled this, I pulled over in my notes too. I think, I, I thought, I thought Cleef Tee had did a great job of writing up just some, uh, you know, Coach of the Year and MVP trends. It's, it's- Yeah.
29:28
I'm, I'm, I'm on his pick, O'Connell. It's a really good pick. Like, it is, I mean, there is a script to these things and it, it's something to keep in mind.
29:33
You got 15, 15 straight winners of the Coach of the Year have won at least nine games. Okay. Average preseason win total of those 15 winners was seven and a half.
29:42
No winner in the last 15 years came into the season with a win total greater than nine and a half. So you're looking at a mid-range team, looking at, that's gonna make a, a big leap usually.
29:52
It's actually one of the easier markets to handicap. And it's not belittling people who win in that market. It's hard to win in any market. But in terms of the handicap, it- There's just guys you can cross off, easy.
30:03
Yeah. Yeah. You can eliminate half the field before you, the season even starts. Mm-hmm. I mean, you eliminate everyone from Andy Reid on down.
30:09
Like, anyone in that vicinity, with like the Harbaugh, not Jo- not, not Jim, but John. Yeah. Uh, Jim actually fits the profile if, if they have a good year.
30:18
Um, he fits the profile, especially because of w- w- what his last name is. Uh, he will get more attention in that market. Obviously John Harbaugh, I mean, there's zero chance John Harbaugh wins Coach of the Year.
30:28
Might as well just cross him off the list. Same thing for Andy Reid. Same thing for Nick Sirianni.
30:31
I think all of these guys that have had the success, been in the Super Bowls, you're just, y- you're not going to win Coach of the Year, but they're listed in the market. Yep. Yep.
30:39
They're eating up equity in the market, and their win equity is, is, is pretty much nil. Um, but to that end,
30:46
Kevin O'Connell kind of fits the Kevin Stefanski mold, where it's elite roster, questionable quarterback situation. If the Vikings can win this year, I think that is a great fit. I, I bet three guys in Coach of the Year.
30:59
I bet O'Connell. Oh, you did? Okay. I bet, um- I think I only, I have one, I think. I bet O'Connell, I bet McDonald in Seattle. That's, I bet McDonald, too. Yeah, yeah. And I also bet Canales.
31:07
I, I, I honestly, I, I'll be honest, I- If there's one take that I'm willing to die on a hill this year, is that Carolina's gonna be a lot better than people think. Um, I, I, I really- Give me a, give me a wins number...
31:20
six. Okay. Over four and a half, which is their total, for sure. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. I think that division is terrible. Oh, me too. I, I honestly do. Me too. I, I think Atlanta's very overrated. Um-
31:32
See, I think they win, I think they win the division- They could win the division with nine wins. I, I think they win the division.
31:37
I think it could be r- I, I actually think it could be rather easily, maybe it's 10, 11, but, like, that is, the division's so bad. Like- Here's my prediction for the NFC South.
31:44
The team that wins the division goes three and three in the division. Okay. [laughs] That's my prediction for the NFC South.
31:49
I mean, I, I think the Saints, I think the Saints and Bucs- I don't know what the final number will be because the weird- But I just, I don't think there's a runaway freight train in this division.
31:57
I think it is a f- I think it, it... Let's leave it at this. If you go four and two in the division this year, you're 100% winning it. The- 100% winning the division four and two.
32:06
Yeah, that'll be int- that'll be interesting, 'cause they, I actually think it's one of those divisions where because of that- All three teams are within four wins of each other.
32:12
That's the only division that's like that. All four teams are within four wins of each other.
32:15
Because of how bad the division is, I actually think more, more outside the division- It's the only division that doesn't have that clear-cut caboose or winner. Like, clear as day.
32:26
Every other division has a clear-as-day outlier, whether it's the bottom, like New England- Yeah, right, [laughs] right, right... or the top, like a, like a AFC South- Right...
32:37
with T- with the Texans or the Lions in the North. Yeah. This is the most compressed of all the divisions. All four teams are within four wins of each other. The market's telling you any of these teams can win it.
32:50
Where's the AFC South? The AFC South's gotta be in this. No, the Texans have a pretty, Texans are clear-cut favorite to win the division... yeah, but the, what, Titans are six and a half, and they're the bottom.
32:58
I think the Texans are 10, so they're in that range, too. Yeah. Yeah. They're in that range, too. They're, they're a couple like that. I, I hear you, though. I hear you. I- both South divisions then stink.
33:06
But also, when you have a team like the Texans who are... Wow, I'm actually surprised that the Texans are only at nine and a half. I think that's a low. That, that would be an over and a half.
33:14
All we got is, all we got is the win total number, though. We don't know what the juice is. We don't know what the odds are. Yeah. [laughs] Let's leave it at this. I'd bet over a nine and a half Texans.
33:22
I'd bet under on Titan and a half, on six and a half Titans. I think the Titans are the worst team in that division by far. Me too. Whereas I don't think the Panthers are by far the worst team in their division.
33:32
I, I think there's a little bit more tightness there- I, that's a good way to say it... with Atlanta- Yeah... at the top. I don't trust Atlanta as a big chalky favorite.
33:38
All right, we'll wrap up a numbers game on the other side. [upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:54
Last licks here, but it's always available for you at vsin.com. A numbers game might be over, but that website is open 24/7, 365. West Reynolds Olympic golf preview on the site right now. Check it out.
34:06
I'll be betting on some Olympic hoops later. I saw 60% of the action, of course we've got betting splits available at vsin.com, 60% of the tickets are on South Sudan later today- Wow... against Team USA. This is at MGM.
34:21
Um, I get the MGM- Recency bias... updates, uh, delivered to me in the morning. I did not check the DraftKing splits this morning. I'm assuming they paint a similar picture. Yeah, probably.
34:28
I would imagine that the handle is probably hot and heavy on the South Sudanese today. Everybody's, uh, everybody wants to go with what they saw l- uh, most recently, right? And what'd you- Recency bias a hell of a drug.
34:38
Yeah. What did you see? You saw South S- South Sudan play the US to a one-point game. I mentioned this on a podcast last year, and I, I'll repeat it again here. The gambling demographic is changing in our country.
34:50
Obviously, the show that you guys do I think skews a little bit towards the more hardcore, old-school crowd. I'm a little bit younger.
34:57
I am seeing a much different approach to gambling than some of the more seasoned professionals that we might deal with here on the show. Gambling now is becoming a cultural phenomenon in this country.
35:11
It is now the cover of... And I don't have to repeat this to you. If you're watching this show, you're a part of the cultural phenomenon.
35:16
But if you're over the age of 50, you might not be up to date on the Instagram, TikTok, social media stuff like I am, because I'm a, I'm a millennial at heart. And it's very visceral today.
35:28
It's, and when I say vis- You're still a millennial. We're old millennials. I am a millennial. I'm an elder millennial. Yeah, we're the old millennials. I'm an elder millennial. I consider myself...
35:34
So I was raised in the computer generation. I got my first computer when I was 13. I played fantasy baseball in 1999. I drafted Darryl Kile and Brad Radke. Those are two guys I had on my team.
35:45
Like, that's how far back I go back into the fantasy baseball world. But there's a certain visceral element to gambling today with the 20s crowd, the Gen Z-ers, even the alphas, where they wanna see it first.
36:01
It's visceral. They wanna feel it in their gut before they bet it. There's no numbers involved. Like, professional gamblers that are seasoned pros, they don't need to even watch the games. Mm-hmm.
36:11
Prax doesn't even watch the games. Mm. It just makes him more upset. Whereas our younger generations want to feel everything.
36:19
They wanna be in their feelings about everything, and they want it to be visceral, and they wanna see it, and then they wanna bet it. It's a very reactionary gambling culture.
36:26
So to your point, that's why everyone's betting South Sudan today. There's not a number on the planet that's telling anyone to bet South Sudan today. [laughs] It's because people saw- [laughs] Right. Yeah...
36:35
what they saw a couple weeks ago, and they said, "Well, I, uh, 30 points."
36:40
Pl- plus it, uh, you know, if you're catching, yeah, if you're catching 28, I gue- I guess you can do the, uh- Who out there has ratings for this game? If, if- Do you honestly know what the real spread should be?
36:50
I don't know how you make numbers for these games. Like, it's v- it's very easy to, uh, it's very easy to go with the, the emotional middle on that, right? Where like- There's an emotional element to it...
36:58
like, "Hey, we want US to win, just, uh, I, but I got 28 points to play with." Like, this has to be a very difficult thing to make numbers for. Well, yeah. You have no idea who's playing, especially for South Sudan.
37:10
Good luck rating those players. We have ratings for the NBA players here in the States, but- How many minutes is Jason Tatum playing today? He played zero in the last game, might play 30 today. Mm.
37:19
Like, it's just, it's very har- Are, are you in the locker room right now with, with Steve Kerr? Do you know how many minutes, who his rotations are? So it's just, it's very hard to create a quantifiable number here.
37:30
The books are guessing. They let the market decide. They put out a number. They let the market, you know, whip it into shape, and here we are, 29 and a half.
37:38
I mean, the US- if the US wins by 60 today, would anybody be surprised? [laughs] I wouldn't be surprised. The best players are- So now it's a 29, a 29 and a half now that I look at it? It's a 30-point spread today.
37:47
28 and a half, 29 and a half, somewhere in that range. Yeah, I saw 28 earlier, but yeah, geez, that is wild. It's a big number. All right, you've got golf on the card today. I do. I don't wanna deprive you of golf.
37:57
Please, sir, what do you got? Yeah, golf, that starts, uh, depending on where you're at, uh, tomorrow. It is a...
38:01
I, I, I'm gonna go over some of the basics quick 'cause I think, I, these are the questions I've gotten the most. This is, um, it's a stroke play event. Uh, there are 60 golfers in the field.
38:10
There is no cut, so it is gonna feel a lot like a, kinda like the signature events we've gotten on the PGA Tour, Jared. Think of that, um, really if you're a, you're a normal golf viewer or bettor.
38:21
There's not really not a lot of crazy differences from what you're getting this week.
38:23
The, the big differences are, um, or, or the ones to keep in mind if you're betting, it's okay, yeah, there's 60 golfers, no cut, so it does feel a lot like a signature event except, and you do get a couple LIV guys in here, except the back end of this field is nowhere [laughs] near the quality of what a back end of the field would be for one of those PGA Tour signature events where you truly have, uh, the best on tour playing in it.
38:48
So, uh, make sure to go check out Long Shots. Matt Brown, Wes, and I dove into, uh, the course, uh, the board heavily. I think this is a, if I wasn't heading out of town, Jared, I'm, I'm a little- Oh, boy...
38:58
I'm a little worried how much I'd actually get involved betting on this. Wow.
39:01
'Cause I think there is some value here with, when you're talking a 60-man field, and, uh, there's about 15 guys at least that you could cross off right away of not even really having a chance to get up there. Yeah.
39:14
Uh, there's some value. I think there's some value right at the top of the board. If you wanna tell me you're betting Scottie Scheffler or Xander Schauffele, I, they're still four to ones out there on Scheffler.
39:23
You, you wanna say you're betting Scottie Scheffler at a b- at a longer number than what he's been at in majors this year in this type of field, I cannot argue with that at all.
39:32
Um, I think I brought it up on Monday, but I did bet Collin Morikawa and Jon Rahm over the weekend.
39:37
Um, I, look, Mor- Morikawa, I've said this multiple times on this show, Morikawa's at a point where he's the best golfer in the world without a win this year. Um, and he's a guy w- we know can win.
39:46
I'm gonna basically be betting him here, uh, every tournament here on out. This course, though, happens to fit what he does be- uh, does best very well, and that is accuracy off the tee, premium with the long irons.
39:57
That is gonna be key this week at Le Golf National where they play the Open de France, uh, every year- [laughs]... on the DP World Tour.
40:06
Uh, something to keep in mind if you are handicapping at home, too, that the course is, uh, it's a staple on the DP World Tour. You do have a lot of the guys in this field that have played, uh, the course before.
40:15
Maybe haven't played it a lot, Jared, but they've played it, so some, some idea. The Ryder Cup was played here, too, in 2018. 2018, I believe I'm gonna get here, right?
40:24
Um, so yeah, there's some familiarity with the course. But yeah, premi- premium on accuracy off the tee. That's gonna be big this week. You're talking about big green complexes. Uh, there are some pot bunkers.
40:34
You're gonna get, see a little link style stuff when it comes to that. Uh, big undulating greens.
40:39
You're looking for guys that are gonna be keeping it in the fairway off the tee and then putting it close, uh, on approach.
40:45
So I didn't out- uh, the only outright I did add, little bit of a FOMO play, I, I bet Jon Rahm and Collin Morikawa over the weekend. A little bit longer numbers than you're seeing now.
40:53
However, I don't think, I, I don't think these numbers would be scaring me off too much. Again, I don't think there's al- I think there, I don't think there's all that many guys that can truly go out and win this event.
41:03
Um, and most of them are right at the top of the odds board.
41:06
The one I did add is I think there's, if you could make a solid argument for some of the guys in the middle, middle range numbers, I get it 'cause, uh, one of the guys I added was Hideki Matsuyama.
41:15
I've bet him a lot this year, have come up short on him a lot this year. 48 to 1 here at Circ on a guy that we know can win.
41:24
Thought Matt Brown put it really well on long, on Long Shots, and this is where I'm kind of tailing him on this. It's Mor- Matsuyama's kind of that guy who win, he wins when we don't expect him to win.
41:33
And it includes this year, right? I've bet on him so much this year. He didn't win at all. He won the Amex, though, when I didn't bet on him. Always.
41:39
Um, so he's kind of that guy, and I think when you're talking about that class of player at 48 to 1 in a field of 60 guys, uh, you can justify that play. So, uh, that's my outright card.
41:50
Top 10s, uh, Morikawa, Alex Noren, and Corey Conners I bet. And then I did something a little different. You can hear m- uh, if you, if you really want stream of consciousness Kelly, uh- I like that.
42:00
That's my favorite Kelly right there... on a podcast, uh, listen to Long Shots as I, as I try to talk through how I think the best way to attack this, uh, really from a betting standpoint is.
42:10
And I did something I almost never do while betting golf this week, Jared. Because of the field strength, I think you can do something like a top 20 round robin parlay, which I did- Wow...
42:21
uh, with Morikawa, Tom Kim, Shane Lowry, Alex Noren, Corey Conners. So I, it's something I almost never do in golf. Well, because they're negatively correlated.
42:30
Uh, right, 'cause they're negatively correlated, but when you're talking about how, how few guys I think can actually finish inside the top 20, and yes, the odds, the odds, the, I'm not saying the odds are off or anything.
42:42
I mean, Matsuyama, I'll just use, I keep using him as an example. 48 to 1 the outright market. He's minus 150 to finish top 20.
42:47
So think about it, [laughs] the, the books are telling you he's gonna finish top 20, but he's still that big of a long shot to win. It, it does give a little bit of credit to those guys that are at the top of the board.
42:56
Uh, but a weaker field, I, I'm getting a little frisky with that top 20 round robin, but I, I, I think it's got a, I think there's some value in making some bets like that this week. Great stuff.
43:05
Kelly Bidlin, of course, the Long Shots pod. Check it out, um, as the Olympic golf tournament.
43:10
You guys are kind of, again, well, after the majors it's, it's tougher to get people excited about golf, but this certainly helps when you have the Olympics. Yeah, it does.
43:17
A- a- again, I think this, I found this very interesting this week. Yeah. Just 'cause the field is, it's, it's- It's an interesting handicap... it's a weird field. You don't see this week to week.
43:24
I, whether you're betting LIV, DP World Tour, or PGA Tour- Mm... you don't see a field like this. Shout out to the viewer who was watching at home.
43:30
I got a, I got something wrong earlier when we were talking about the divisions and the compressed win totals.
43:34
The AFC North, actually, if you guys wanna put up the AFC North win totals really quick, we can hit on them for a second here. That is the most compressed division in the NFL.
43:43
I always admit when I'm wrong, especially when you guys correct me on the air. I really don't have a choice. But you only see a two- [laughs] You only see a two-gap, uh, win there between the top and the bottom.
43:53
I will argue that I think Baltimore should be 11 and a half, but they were 11 and a half, and it was bet to the under.
43:59
I think under on the Ravens this year, if you can find an 11 and a half fairly priced out there, makes a ton of sense. Browns and Steelers, ugh, I'd be hard-pressed to bet over on either of those teams.
44:09
I know Cleveland's got the better roster, and Pittsburgh's got that win streak, but really tough. Um, great stuff across the board. Kelly Bidlin, awesome job producing.
44:17
JBT, Frank Schwab, our guests, everyone in the back. I am Jared Smith. Um, awesome, awesome stuff all week long. I'll be back tomorrow. Peace and stay with us. [upbeat rock music]
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