Search
Login
Sign Up
Jul 31, 2026
A Numbers Game | July 31, 2026 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | July 31, 2026 | Hour 2
00:00
47:16
1×
Transcript
0:00
Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more. That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
0:08
Make a smart buy on the off-road-ready Tacoma or half ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest lasting trucks.
0:15
Built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
0:21
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
0:27
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
0:37
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you could trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
0:44
From a great deal today to great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places.
0:53
[upbeat music] This is VSiN, the sports betting network. The numbers tell the story, they always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
1:15
It's a numbers game, VSiN, the sports betting network. I'm Dustin Swiedelshon, that's Kelly Bidlin.
1:20
Appreciate you hanging out with us here, Sirius XM channel 158, YouTube TV, the VSiN Watch app, radio affiliates across the United States. God bless America.
1:28
Fun show on tap today as we're monitoring the MLB trade deadline. We'll have plays coming up on the Friday card of action as well.
1:36
And right now I'm looking forward to this next conversation because this guy's been a fixture on my television for a long time.
1:41
He does an awesome job on ESPN breaking down college football, and I think that his alma mater, BYU, has a chance to make a very fascinating run this year.
1:52
We're gonna chat now with Trevor Matich, ESPN college football analyst, @tmatichonx is where you can find him on social media, and he joins us now via the progressive guest line. So Trevor, let's start with BYU.
2:04
You won a national championship in 1984 with the Cougs. This year, I love what they have returning back, s- specifically Kalani Sitake. He thought about maybe leaving for Penn State. He remains there in Provo.
2:17
Bear Bachmeier returns for his second year. L.J. Martin is back at running back. They're the second shot on the board to win the Big 12 behind Texas Tech. How good do you think BYU can be this year?
2:30
BYU can be a top 10 team and better this year, Dustin, because of the guys that are coming back that you mentioned, but also because their offensive line and defensive line will probably be better this year than they were last year.
2:46
I mean, they've got great experience.
2:47
They've got some, uh, high potential transfers coming in on the O line, and some young edge rushers that showed promise last year seem to be ready to break out on the defensive side, and that's huge.
3:00
But you mentioned Bear Bachmeier, the quarterback. I think everybody's focused there.
3:04
And, uh, Bear last year was thrust into the starting job because BYU's senior starting quarterback had to leave school, had to leave campus. So Bear jumped in and had a great freshman year.
3:18
And if you look at how he did against Texas Tech in two games, they lost twice to Texas Tech. The first one, Texas Tech was by far the better team. Bear was sort of overwhelmed.
3:31
But in the Big 12 championship game, BYU came out, got the ball, drove it down for a quick touchdown early in the game. Bear looked like he was a different quarterback against that Texas Tech defense.
3:45
But Bear hurt his ankle on that drive, and for the rest of the game, he could not use his mobility. He turned into a stationary pocket passer, which plays into the strength of that pass rush of Texas Tech last year.
3:58
So this year, with Bear knowing more of the playbook, Bear being more experienced, and with some really interesting pieces around him, uh, BYU's got a chance not just to get to the Big 12 championship game, but to compete with Texas Tech should they, should they get there as well, and possibly win it.
4:18
This is a very good BYU team with a tremendous amount of potential. Having said that, there are some really scary landmine type games, trap games that BYU will have.
4:31
But when you talk about the playoff, take a look at that Notre Dame game in October. Yeah, because- Because if BYU loses... Go ahead, I'm sorry. No, no, s- sorry, go ahead Trevor, finish your thought.
4:43
If BYU loses to Notre Dame, then they really have to win the Big 12 in order to make the playoff.
4:49
Otherwise, a loss of the Big 12 championship game would give them a second loss, and last year they didn't make the playoff with just two losses.
4:55
So, um, if they beat Notre Dame, it gives them a mulligan, and they could still not win the Big 12 and make the playoff. Sorry about that, Trevor.
5:03
We're just getting too excited about Bear Bach- Bachmeier out on, over on this desk, okay? And I, it was...
5:08
I wanted to kind of take a step back and just talk about the Heisman race potentially this season, and, uh, I know Dustin's high on him. He's g- he's got me high on him a bit too.
5:16
Uh, do you think Bear Bachmeier's gonna be able to compete in that, uh, that race down the stretch? Yeah, I think so, uh, Kelly. When you look at, uh, BYU's Heisman-winning quarterback Ty Detmer, right? Mm-hmm.
5:29
Number one Miami came to Provo that year, and Ty Detmer sliced them up. I mean, sliced them up, and BYU beat Miami, and that's what propelled Ty to the Heisman Trophy, and Bear has the same opportunity here.
5:46
You know, he has to play well in a loss. Maybe he'll be in the race kind of thing.
5:51
But if he plays well in a BYU win over Notre Dame, and then the rest of the season goes the way they want, uh, I think he's got, he's got a very good chance to at least be in New York, especially because last year he got so much Name recognition out there.
6:07
I mean, he starts as one of the more recognized returning quarterbacks in college football because of his 2025 season. ESPN College Football analyst Trevor Matich is our guest, Progressive Guest Line.
6:20
Yesterday, I'm sure you saw it, Trevor, Kirk Cinciotti called out the SEC. And you know what? He has every opport- he has every right to do so. The Big Ten's won three straight national champions.
6:30
He put his money where his mouth was a year ago. He delivered one to Bloomington. Wh- when you watch Big Ten football versus SEC football in today's college football landscape, what, what do you think is the difference?
6:42
Why has the Big Ten been successful the last three years, and the SEC is now looking like the underdog in this spot?
6:49
Yeah, I think that, uh, NIL has spread recruiting around, which is another reason why I think, uh, 2014 playoff is not as preposterous as some people might think.
7:00
Because NIL means that lots of teams have really good players. And the SEC saw itself as the greatest conference because they kept on winning national championships with multiple teams.
7:13
And now, as you guys know, the Big Ten won three straight with three different teams, including last year with Indiana.
7:20
The losingest program in the history of college football won the national championship out of the Big Ten. And a lot of people think Oregon might do it this year. So you start there.
7:31
But then when you look at the depth of the league, the SEC still says now, to try to re- retain a little, a little, um, swagger, that, "Okay, the Big Ten is better at the top right now, but we're better in the middle, and we're deeper."
7:45
But Tony Pettini, the Big Ten Commissioner, points out that in the last two years of the 12 team playoff, the Big Ten has 11 different playoff wins by seven different teams, and that's more than double what the SEC has.
7:59
And so, and they've got four straight playoff wins against the SEC. So, you know, the, the Big Ten is not just a couple good teams on top.
8:07
And one of the great storylines this year is, what will the SEC do to reclaim the crown as the kings of college football?
8:17
Because right now it is unquestioned that the Big Ten is the king, and the SEC is far on the outside looking in. Trevor, of the top of that Big Ten, who do you believe is the best chance to win the national title?
8:30
The betting odds have Ohio State as the favorite in the market right now. Overall, it's six to one. Indiana to repeat is eight to one. Oregon's eight to one. Which of those big three are your favorite?
8:43
You know, right now I, I like Oregon. And the reason is that they've got a quarterback that has a chance to be elite at the top.
8:53
Last year, Julian Sayin, Ohio State's quarterback, first year as a starter they protected him, and that was fine when they played teams they could beat up.
9:01
But when they played Indiana in the Big Ten championship game and, you know, against better teams, they, they couldn't afford to bubble wrap him like they did.
9:10
So we don't know how Julian Sayin will be when they take the bubble wrap off. I think he'll be a really good quarterback. But we know...
9:19
Well, and then there's Josh Hoover at Indiana, who very quietly has the most returning passing yards career of any returning quarterback in college football.
9:27
I mean, he has a chance to do everything that Fernando Mendoza did last year from the standpoint of moving the offense and winning. But Dante Moore, the quarterback for Oregon,
9:37
if he'd have come out last year, would've been a top three pick. And as we sit here today, he's the consensus QB one in the 2027 draft. Now, we'll see what happens when the season plays out.
9:49
But he's got a chance to be the most elite of elite quarterbacks this year.
9:55
And when you combine Oregon's lines, especially their defensive line, which this year is what Ohio State's was last year, lost a lot of those guys to the NFL, the Buckeyes did.
10:05
I think Oregon is the team that I would pick. Trevor Matich is our guest, ESPN College Football analyst. About two minutes to go here, Trevor. What do you make of year one of Lane Kiffin? 59 new players at Baton Rouge.
10:16
Expectations are high. Win total is high at eight and a half. Do you believe LSU can get a playoff spot this season? I think they can.
10:26
Lane Kiffin, for all of his bluster, is one of the best college football minds of his generation. And he, he's just fantastic at bringing in all those, uh, new guys,
10:40
transfers, pulling them into a locker room, and molding them into a team with chemistry. And very few coaches really can do that well. And, you know, and the team chemistry is very important. Lane can do that.
10:53
But to me it's all about quarterback Sam Levitt. Will he be healthy, and then how will he play?
10:57
At Arizona State, where he transferred to LSU from, he had some really great moments, but he had some pretty average moments, too, and he struggled to stay healthy in the Big 12.
11:06
Well, now he has to stay healthy in the SEC, and it's hard to imagine that he'll be any better than the fifth best, best quarterback in the SEC given what's coming back in that conference.
11:17
And so it's really, there's a lot of pressure on Sam Levitt, their transfer quarterback. If he plays at a high level, LSU has the ability to make the playoff.
11:26
Trevor, I'm already anticipating you being heavily on one of my four TVs as I'm watching college football, listening on ESPN as well. He's Trevor Matich, ESPN College Football analyst.
11:37
@tmatichonX is where you can find him. Thank you for doing this today. I really appre- appreciated the conversation and the time.
11:43
And, uh, good luck getting ready, 'cause, uh, the season's gonna be here before we know it. Appreciate that. Thanks, Dustin. Thanks, Kelly. Thanks, Trevor. Awesome stuff from Trevor Matich there.
11:53
I, well, I'm high on BYU, five and a half to one to win the Big 12. Yeah. I'd also tell you, uh, I think I'm gonna be on Houston to win the Big 12. Okay. It's 16 to one. Yeah, it is still mind... I, I l- like it.
12:04
It's still mind-blowing to me that we're talking about a just world that we live in where Dante Moore skipped the draft last year. [laughs] No, no, he didn't skip the...
12:11
Oh, let, let's rephrase that Dante Moore refused to be a New York Jet. [laughs] He didn't skip the draft. [laughs] He didn't wanna be a New York Jet.
12:17
He was willing to go into the draft, he just wasn't willing to play for the Jets. Fair. Yeah, fair. Hey, the sports calendar never stops. The sharp plays, they cover it all.
12:24
They've been winning for 15 straight years, all of it documented. Logs posted publicly. Sharpplays.com. When the sharp plays move, the sports books take notice.
12:31
Advanced AI, trusted insider intel, they find value before the numbers shift. Respected, watched, feared. Start winning with them at sharpplays.com today. Who will win the Tarik Skubal sweepstakes?
12:42
We break it down on the other side of a Numbers Game. [upbeat rock music] You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real. Mindset alone doesn't get bets home.
13:00
Pros win because they've got the tools, the data, and the discipline. And now so can you. VSiN Pro gives you access to the same real-time insights the sharps use.
13:08
No secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with VSiN Pro. Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more.
13:25
That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
13:30
Make a smart buy on the off-road-ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest-lasting trucks.
13:37
Built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
13:44
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
13:51
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
14:00
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you can trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
14:09
From a great deal today to a great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places.
14:21
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat rock music] It's a Numbers Game.
14:38
Dustin Sweetelson in for Gil Alexander. Don't worry, you'll hear from old Gilly coming up here in 30 minutes on the program. On the heels of cashing most wins in the month of July, 80 to 1 on the Boston Red Sox.
14:50
I mean, that's bet of the year. That- Oh, yeah. For some people, that's bet of their life. Oh, yeah. I wonder where it's...
14:55
For Gil Alexander, who's been in this racket for a long time, I'm not calling him old, I'm just saying he's been betting a long time. Mm-hmm. Where does an 80 w- 80 to 1 come down for him?
15:03
For me, my biggest hit ever, and it wasn't the most money, but it was the biggest odds, I hit Paul Goldschmidt, NL MVP, a few years ago at 75 to 1. Mm.
15:13
That was the biggest just individual bet I ever cashed at a big number. But for Gil, I wonder where 80 to 1 would rank for him. I hit o- what, 100 to 1 Ole Miss College World Series a couple years ago. And that cashed?
15:24
Yeah. That, yeah, right. So that one's, uh- That's a fun one. Yeah, that one... I, I don't think this one's as big as that, but it's up there. It's up there. Yeah. That's a...
15:32
I, I can't wait to see what he does for the next month in baseball, because- Yeah, I can hear him...
15:36
uh, o- o- one element for me when it comes to looking at the month of August is I have to eliminate the teams that- 99, 80... that I believe... And guys, we can hear that. 76. I can hear that in my ear. Um,
15:47
one thing for me when I was looking at the market was I wanna get rid of teams, put a line through the ones that are gonna be sellers at the deadline. So they're done. If they beat me, they beat me. Mm.
15:58
But the Angels, like all, all these bad teams- Right... that are g- just gonna get worse, the Mets who are gonna get worse. Yeah, like the Mets, you're not looking at. So I, I just didn't wanna mess with them.
16:07
So I'm looking at teams I think are trying to get better, that could play better, that might be worth the value. I had two teams that jumped out to me on that board.
16:14
To help us analyze the baseball trade deadline, we are gonna go out to the Progressive Guest Line. Welcoming Pat Ragazzo, Athlon Sports national MLB writer.
16:22
You can check him out here, uh, as he joins us on the Progressive Guest Line. Pat, thanks for doing this, man. I appreciate the time.
16:29
And obviously Tarik Skubal is the one that looms over this [laughs] deadline on Monday. When you look at the fits for Skubal, they all make sense.
16:38
But who do you anticipate to be the most aggressive in getting a guy that's gonna be a rental, but also could propel you to winning a World Series? I mean, there's a number of teams who are interested in Tarik Skubal.
16:52
You look at the Los Angeles Dodgers, who are clearly the favorite right now. But then the Milwaukee Brewers, the Tampa Bay Rays, who just had an injury to Shane McClanahan.
17:03
The Chicago Cubs, who desperately need starting pitching given all the injuries they've had this year. And there's just so many teams that really are a fit for Skubal and are, are, and are going to be in on him.
17:14
Even the New York Yankees are a team that could possibly be in on him at this deadline.
17:19
So I still think he's gonna go to the Dodgers, but there's a number of teams who are gonna have to give up a boatload of prospects in order to get him, and I think the Tigers would be crazy not to trade him at this deadline.
17:30
Yeah, and Pat, it's been a lot of Skubal and Mason Miller talk here, uh, over the past couple weeks.
17:35
I, w- w- some other big names or bigger names that w- uh, people should be looking out for here over the next few days to possibly be on the move? Well, we've heard names like C.J.
17:45
Abrams and Mason Miller, and from my understanding, both players are not going to be dealt.
17:52
So it's going to be more of a modest trade deadline when you look at, particularly looking at pitching, where beyond Skubal, you have names like Kevin Gausman and Freddy Peralta and Clay Holmes and Robbie Ray.
18:07
And then on the position player side, there's so many teams searching for right-handed hitting outfielder, right-handed bat in the infield, catching help.
18:16
And guys like Shea Langeliers, Adley Rutschman, like, those are the top two catching options who are most likely not going to be dealt.
18:25
Shea Langeliers tore his meniscus, so he's out for the year, so he's definitely not going to be dealt.
18:30
Um, the Orioles are in the wild card race right now, and obviously they have Rutschman, as I just mentioned, and Taylor Ward, who is another attractive right-handed hitting bat.
18:39
But, but the Orioles are in the wild card race.
18:41
So, um, yeah, I think if this is gonna come down to the wire in terms of names that are gonna be dealt, I don't think too big of names beyond Skubal are gonna be dealt this year.
18:51
But, uh, but things could, things could obviously change as we get closer to the deadline on Monday. Pat Ragazzo is our guest, MLB writer, Athlon Sports, @RagazzoReport. You can find him over on X.
19:02
Talk about teams that could be most aggressive a- as the Monday deadline approaches. Do you anticipate the Phillies making multiple moves, Milwaukee making just one or multiple moves here?
19:11
Who do you anticipate being the teams that are most active as the deadline approaches? I believe the Yankees and the Red Sox are gonna be the two most aggressive teams.
19:20
The Red Sox came back from the dead this year [chuckles] and won 15 straight.
19:25
They've been, I believe they're 27 and 8 since June, and they have a real shot to make some noise in a weak American League this year, and, and they could potentially surpass the Yankees, who are struggling immensely on offense without Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Cody Bellinger.
19:41
So I think both of those AL East teams need to be super aggressive. The Yankees, uh, the question is whether Judge is gonna come back this year.
19:49
I think they still expect him to come back in September, but he's really not making too much progress with that broken rib right now. And, um, the Yankees need to go out and get multiple bats.
20:00
I know that the, the Yankees are looking at relief help as well, but their bullpen has been the best in the league since June.
20:06
Uh, July, they had a tremendous month, and, and they're really much, they're pretty much set in the starting rotation as well, as long as Carlos Rodón comes back from the IL, which is expected.
20:16
Um, the, the Yankees need to get multiple bats. The Red Sox already got Curtis Mead for Connelly Early, but they need another bat after Curtis Mead broke his wrist after getting hit by a pitch.
20:27
Uh, Red Sox could probably use some more pitching around the margins, but I think those two teams are gonna be the most aggressive.
20:31
And the Milwaukee Brewers, that, which of course you asked about, um, I think they need to make multiple trades as well, and this needs to be the year that they put all their chips on the table and go all in and, and make some moves that could help them take down the Dodgers.
20:44
Well, that, that's where I wanted to go next here, Pat. Is this all just a waste of time [laughs] that the Dodgers are inevitable? They're plus 190 to win the World Series.
20:54
Do you believe any of the teams looking to punch up at Los Angeles going for their three-peat can get that much better, where they could potentially knock them off? Yeah, I mean, I do.
21:05
I think that the Brewers have Jacob Miazga, they have Kyle Harrison. They have a great pesky offense that scores a lot of runs, has speed on the base paths. They play great defense.
21:16
Like, I think that the Brewers have been neck and neck with the Dodgers all season long, and this has to be the year that they get over the hump and, and they, they could do so by making significant trades at the deadline, particularly in the pitching department.
21:30
And they could use a power bat as well, which I think every contender could use a right-handed hitting [chuckles] power bat and, and is looking for one.
21:36
Uh, but like I said, the m- the market for that is just not great right now. Um, but, but maybe some teams could surprise us as the deadline gets closer.
21:44
But I think the Brewers have a chance of taking the Dodgers down if they make the right moves. Potentially the Phillies, even though their offense is really struggling right now,
21:52
and they need some pitching help in the bullpen and in the back end of their starting rotation. And, uh, and yeah, in the American League, maybe the Rays.
21:59
If the Rays go out and get Tarik Skubal over the Dodgers, which is more of a reason that the Dodgers are going to try and get Skubal so their rivals don't, uh, I think would be one, another big reason that they try and get Tarik Skubal.
22:11
Uh, the Rays could make the right moves and, and potentially wind up, uh, beating the Dodgers in the World Series if they make it out of the AL. Yeah, we've got the, uh, AL Central then and the AL West, Pat.
22:21
Man, what mess is out there? I-- W- how do you see these divisions ending up shaking out? Who do you think comes out on top? Well, in the AL Central, I like the Chicago White Sox.
22:32
I think that they have some really good young talent. They've been heavy in on starting pitching at the deadline, which they need, uh, to shore up their rotation.
22:41
They could probably use another bat as well to complement their offense, but, but, uh, and some bullpen help as well. But, uh, I like what the Chicago White Sox have done this year.
22:50
It's, it's pretty remarkable given they lost 121 games just two years ago, and had, I believe they had three straight 100 loss seasons the last three years as well.
22:59
And, uh, they've recuperated young talent and, and developed them well and, and guys have been showing out this year. Um, M- M- uh, Murakami at first base.
23:10
[laughs] I'm not even gonna try and pronounce his first name, unfortunately. Um, he, uh, he's had a great year as well coming from, over from Japan.
23:18
Uh, a number of teams swung and missed trying to sign him and, and he signed for a very reasonable deal with the White Sox. Um, uh, so I, I do like the White Sox coming out of the AL Central.
23:28
And then in, in the American League West, I think the Rangers. I like the, the trade that the Rangers just made for Logan O'Hop and, and Chase Silseth, uh, from the Los Angeles Angels the other night.
23:38
Um, that was really the first trade that we saw at the deadline and, and I like the Rangers taking that division. I think the Mariners have really struggled.
23:46
Uh, we saw them in their, we've seen them in the series against the Dodgers this week, where they, where they haven't really played well, and they haven't really played well as of late overall.
23:55
And, uh, and yeah, I don't, I don't think the Astros are making the postseason this year, even though they, they do intend to be buyers.
24:01
But, uh, I think the Rangers are, are going to improve a little more as well, and I think they're gonna wind up taking that division in a tight race. Pat, I appreciate you doing this today, man. Awesome stuff.
24:11
Everyone read him over at Athlon Sports on X @RagazzoReport. It's Pat Ragazzo, MLB writer nationally for Athlon Sports. Thanks for the time, man. Of course. Thanks so much for having me.
24:22
Yeah, the, the Skubal thing, the Brewers being aggressive. I st- I, I keep living in a world now where I'm trying to convince myself of my Phillies bets. Yeah. 'Cause you know I'm high- Yeah, yeah...
24:31
on the Phillies and, and since I did that, they got swept by the Marlins. Like, they've been embarrassing. It's been bad. I've got them to make the playoffs but that, the- No, they're gonna make the playoffs.
24:39
Yeah, yeah, yeah. They're gonna make the play- I'm feeling okay. I don't have them as high end as you.
24:41
But if they wind up, and their consolation prize if they don't pay the price for Skubal is, I don't know, getting a bullpen arm.
24:48
Maybe one of the guys from the Mets, maybe it's Raleigh, maybe it's Devin Williams, Luke Weier, who knows what it could be. Uh, one of the relievers out there to get better there.
24:55
But couldn't they theoretically get Gausman and Reid Detmers and just go all in on the arms and not have to pay that pr- I, I s- I don't think Philly's totally dead 'cause the handicap was always pitching, but Bryce Harper calling out the front office was certainly a choice by him, so.
25:08
[laughs] Hey. I- Light a fire. Speaking of choices, who are the best choices for MVP? Kelly found some interesting trends. We'll share them next on A Numbers Game.
25:17
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
25:36
Happy Friday, boys and girls. Shout out to Rebecca Black somewhere doing her thing. He's Kelly Bidlin, I'm Dustin Sweetolson. Gotta get down on Friday, everyone knows that.
25:44
You think that song will ever get out of your head? No. Like, it will forever be lodged in some part of my brain. I'm, I'm gonna tell you something. And like, shout out to her for that, I guess.
25:53
Like, that is- Well, well, well first of all, the, I think, believe the story goes, and I'm probably getting all of this wrong. This is, like, one of those things that's passed down.
25:59
What, she, like, ripped off the song fr- from someone- No... who ripped off the song from someone who's really- No, her parents want her to be famous, so they bought...
26:05
You know, they, they, they go to a, a, a production company. They buy it to, like, some song that's gonna go off that's kinda stupid and catchy, and, like, thinking that the career's just gonna take off from there. Yeah.
26:14
And I mean, the song did. It slapped, and then everyone was like, "Never play it again." [laughs] Rebecca Black. Is it just called Friday? I think so. Friday, Friday. Gotta get down on Friday.
26:24
If it's not called Friday- Everybody's working for the weekend... they kinda botched that part. Wow, yeah. Okay, fun fact that when I was in Los Angeles, I w- I didn't hang out with this group of people.
26:34
I was, like, of... I was on the outside of a g- a group that hung out with this group that hung out with her. So I was at a party in the Hollywood Hills when I lived in Los Angeles once. All right.
26:43
Dust, uh, just to catch everybody up, Dustin, best friends with Rebecca Black- Yes, yes... was at a party- Yes. [laughs]... in Hollywood Hills with her. Yep, okay, go on. And I'm like Stephen Glansberg- [laughs]...
26:51
just sitting in the corner. [laughs] You got that reference. I'm just sitting there in the corner with, like, a six pack of beer not talking to anyone 'cause, like, uh, my thing would be like, all right- Oh...
27:00
I'm social. I'm out in front of people. But actually interacting with them is not something I'm looking forward to. And I'm sitting by the bathroom and I, I saw Rebecca Black go in and out of the bathroom.
27:09
Someone was like, "That was Rebecca Black." And I was like, "Oh yeah, it was. Good for her." Oh, yeah? Years later though, obviously. In, in and out of the bathroom? She was partying in there, you think? No.
27:15
Nothing else was going on? No, I'm not gonna say what she was- All right... what she was up to in there. I don't judge. That's cool, man. Great reference, by the way. That is, that is maybe the best scene in that movie.
27:23
Do, I, I, I love that line. Stephen Glansberg. Is he, is he eating yogurt by himself? He's like, like, yeah. Remember when- A banana? Banana or yogurt? I think it was banana. Just looking off into the distance. See, I,
27:33
I stand by bananas are a very difficult food to eat in public, specifically at work. Is it a HR violation if you eat a banana in front of a coworker?
27:41
[laughs] And the only way I've decided it is, is if you make eye contact while you're biting the banana. Yeah, that's probably a good call.
27:49
What, are you gonna just lea- leave me here by myself like I'm Stephen Glansberg? Stephen Glansberg. [laughs] Just show it to me. He likes...
27:54
See, my favorite line that I use all the time, and I don't know if people know that, it's, by the movie Superbad. Oh, man. The, the, it's basically my autobiography. You, you know what would blow your mind?
28:03
You've probably seen this on Instagram already. You know it came out the exact same month as the first iPhone? Superbad? Yeah. Well, think about this.
28:11
How many, how many movies the plot gets completely derailed- Well, this is exactly the point... because a smartphone's out?
28:16
It start, that's ma- and that's maybe the best movie example if you're like, "This doesn't make any sense if these guys have cell phones." I always think of Reservoir Dogs. I'm like, they'd all be alive- [laughs]...
28:25
if, if they just had cell phones and a way to communicate. [laughs] I don't know why that's the mo- I remember watching that movie, 'cause I didn't see it until, like, I don't know- Oh, man... 15 years ago.
28:34
And the whole time watching I'm like, if they just had a cell phone, all of this is avoided and they live. Uh, yeah, yeah, yeah. That, that, that is, that movie is tough to do if they have cell phones.
28:42
But, but they could- [laughs] But no, the line from Superbad I use all the time is when they're in Home EC and Jonah Hill's character is like- [laughs]... 'cause he, he's like, "I'm by myself."
28:50
He said, "I'm like a single mother." Right. "I'm washing and drying the dishes." [laughs] Washing and drying. All right, we get tweets. We get tweets. You got it right. I get them, man. You got it right. Yeah.
28:58
No correction, man. I, I woke up this morning and I saw the tweet from Buddhist Man, and I was like, "This is brilliant." All right, Gil, and he's quoting me.
29:06
Gil, and I, I need a one word answer, which is definitely the way I would phrase it. Who has the most wins in August for Major League Baseball?
29:12
Washington Nationals from Will, from, from, from Gil, which by the way is two words. The reaction from that according to Buddhist Man would be Chris Falica saying, "Generational thing."
29:21
Drew Dinsick would reply, w- w- would reply with, "Oh man." [laughs] And then this is my favorite part about the tweet. Matt Grissom would chime in and say, "Georgia Tech." [laughs] No, no, no.
29:31
You, you're reading into this wrong. So this was a, this was a real exchange- Stop... that occurred with, with Gil and Matt Grissom- Oh... in college baseball. And it was, like, on our way out.
29:42
Like, we were like hitting the break, right? And Gil's like, "Hey, I need one word answer. Who, who wins the College World Series?" And he goes, Matt Grissom goes, "Georgia Tech." Gil goes, "I need, I said one word."
29:52
He goes, "Georgia." [laughs] That's well done. That's well done. Oh, it's pretty good.
29:58
Uh, let's see, uh, @, uh, Beta, "By week picks, even," he said, "even thought," even though beating the book is off, do we have an August highest win total for MLB, Kelly Bidlin?
30:10
We will get Gil's thoughts coming up in 11 minutes on the show. That's right. Fresh off the heels of 80 to 1 delivering on the Boston Red Sox. Ted Hoyer writes you, Kelly, "Why can't I quit Jake Knapp?
30:22
All he does is hurt me." Where are you at with the Rocket M- Rocket Classic? What's it called? I forget. Yeah, Rocket Classic. Welcome back. Where are you at right now with the- You know Rocket Mortgage Classic?
30:29
Uh, yeah, Jake Knapp's struggling. I, I've gotten a few tweets about him actually Didn't end up betting him. He's two under par. I think he actually just made an eagle. Two under par for the tournament, not looking good.
30:38
Projected cut line is two under par right now, but, uh, we only have the morning wave currently out there.
30:44
Cameron Young, Patrick Cantlay, and Peter Malnati are all tied for the lead at the Rocket Classic at nine under par. Cantlay with a birdie putt, uh, here on the fourth hole. Uh, he is nine under.
30:58
Cameron Young though, probably the story of the day. Eight under th- uh, through 14 on his round. He's the low man out there.
31:04
You've got Matt Wallace and Luke Clanton, Florida State's Luke Clanton, uh, eight under par for the tournament, and then a bunch of guys at seven under, but we have half the field that has not even teed off yet.
31:13
Who'd you say you have outright? I have Hideki Matsuyama, who is, let's see, three under par- I just saw him on the screen not that long ago... four under par. So he's, uh, he's T-31 right now. He's got some work to do.
31:25
And then I have, uh, my other guys will be teeing off later today. Chris Gotterup and Ben Griffin is out there right now. I do not know what he- how- what he is doing. Is Chris Gotterup- Gotta be great, two under par...
31:35
is Chris Gotterup the new Matt Fitzpatrick, you guys are just gonna bet him every week? Uh, well for me, like, all season it's been both those two guys.
31:41
[laughs] It's just been, like, back and forth, like, Gotterup, Matt Fitzpatrick. Th- th- this week was actually a real pain because they did the, this is the last year of this event. Yes.
31:51
They're shortening up the PGA Tour schedule going forward, so some of these events basically, uh, are either getting kicked out or you gotta choose whether they're staying or not.
31:59
But, uh, Dustin, you know how we do this, so we do long shots every week and we talk the golf tournaments, and- Yes... they just did major renovations to this golf course.
32:05
Oh, great, so all that data's really- All of that research-... really helpful... and work that we had to do for one year, and then this will be done. Incredible. I mean, we had a course record for the first round, right?
32:15
Yeah, we did. Which is w- which is odd 'cause the event's gonna be going away now. Yeah. A little easier though when you go from a par 72 to a par 70. Fair. Yeah. Fair.
32:23
Mark Hopple w- Mark Hopple writes in, "Double time with Follow the Money too, Dustin Swilson, could you imagine that?" I should pro- we should do that. I'm telling you, we should do 24 hours of Dustin on the network.
32:32
God, subscriptions would be dropping left and right. [laughs] Oh, man. That would be something here.
32:39
All right, and I think, uh, you know, and now, now people are writing in, they're not happy that we got that stuff in there now. Yeah, just Rebecca Black tweets now. Yep. All right, let's see. NFL MVP.
32:48
You sent over some interesting trends here. They're from Clev-T- it's Clev-T-A, right? That, are we sure Gil- I always go Cleve, but you know. It's Cleve? Hold on. I've heard Gil say Clev-T-A or Cleve-T-A.
32:59
I've heard people refer to it as Clefta. Do we have confirmation on how to pronounce it, or are we all just guessing? I'm pretty sure it's Cleve-T-A. That was not confident.
33:07
No, no, I'm like, I'm trying not to be overly cocky. [laughs] But I'm pretty sure. Cleve-T-A? Yeah. I would just implore Cleve-T-A- 'Cause, uh, you might notice, he tweets a lot about Cleveland.
33:19
He's from Cleveland- Oh... so that's like the first thing. Got it. And then T-A stands for something. Well, either way, he's great with trends. How about these NFL MVP trends?
33:28
Which I- I think help us whittle down- Yeah... who the best options are to win this award.
33:32
So the first one here that you sent over, 13 straight and 18 of the last 19 MVPs have been quarterbacks, and those teams have averaged just over 13 wins per season.
33:41
No MVP in the last 26 seasons came from a team with less than 11 wins. Okay. So when I'm looking at the teams, I, I need to have teams that I think are capable of 13- Right... and a quarterback. This is quarterback...
33:53
quarterback, and will win 11. Yeah. So when I look at that list, that brings it to, like, a very small group for me. I'm talking Baltimore, Buffalo, Chicago, Cincinnati. Would you put Detroit in this camp? Uh, yeah.
34:09
Dallas. Yeah, with how everybody's betting on them this year, uh, Dallas you could definitely make the case. Green Bay? Of course, you could make the case. Houston? Yep.
34:18
And then my locks, Kansas City, Chargers, Rams, Eagles, Niners, and Seattle. Man, okay, I would, I, I guess I'd be a little bit more uncertain over some of your locks, but yeah, yeah, sure.
34:28
For, I mean, if you're going to bet MVP at this point- I, I, yeah... yes, you can definitely see a path where those teams win that many games.
34:32
Yeah, less, less locks, but, like, winning 11 to 13, th- that's the expectation- You're right. Yeah, yeah, yeah... for these teams coming in.
34:38
The second trend, since 2009, no quarterback has won MVP on a team worse than plus 315 to make the playoffs, which that certainly is the correct cutoff point when you look at, at, at the odds to make the playoffs.
34:49
Because, uh, I can't remember who that first team is on the outside looking in, but they're definitely not a playoff team.
34:54
Yeah, it's the, uh, s- uh, like, look, what this is, I don't think these are over complicated trends, right? Yeah. But just kinda give you some guidelines, right?
35:01
If you're going to bet MVP right now at this point in the year, you better make sure you think it's on a team that's going to play well, make the playoffs, right?
35:10
And probably has pretty high expectations, and it's a quarterback. Yeah. It's the biggest thing. It eliminates the Titans, the Browns, the Raiders, the Jets, the Dolphins, and the Cardinals.
35:18
So of that first group I me- uh, I, I mentioned, teams that can get to 13 wins, Kelly, I'm eliminating Detroit 'cause Jared Goff can't win MVP.
35:27
I am going- I do- I, I so, I s- am so on the same page with you at this point with that. I'm eliminating Houston 'cause C.J. Stroud is not an MVP, and also I think the offensive line is bad. Yeah.
35:37
I, I am not willing to eliminate Dallas. I am going to eliminate Green Bay. Okay. So now of the options, and we'll discuss this a little bit later on, our potential MVP bets in the NFL, Baltimore, Buffalo.
35:50
So r- I should say the names. Lamar Allen, Caleb Williams, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Matthew Stafford, Jalen Hurts, Brock Purdy, Sam Darnold. Cross Sam Darnold. Yeah, I think you cross him off too.
36:05
Okay. One, two, three, four. We're down to nine guys that can win MVP. Who's the best bet? We'll dissect it later on in the program, but how does Gil Alexander top 80 to 1 on the most wins in July?
36:17
Well, we'll get his bet on August next.
36:19
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network
36:38
I think the bold, I think the boldest strategy for me here at Kelly/Bidlin, I'm Dustin Sweetelson in for Gil Alexander, is I should read 400 tweets right now before we get to our next guest.
36:48
Oh my God, I already forgot to make that joke. [laughs] I already forgot to make that joke. Yeah. So it's just payback. [laughs] Let him see how it feels on the other end of this thing.
36:57
But, uh, look, when you're sitting in the chair for someone as Gil Alexander is in the betting landscape here at VSiN as one of the, uh, forefathers of the network, uh, you have to make way when he says, "Hey, I know I'm on vacation, but I'd like to appear on my own show."
37:12
You just lay out the red carpet. So joining us from parts unknown in the state of California is the normal host of this program, A Numbers Game, he is Gil Alexander, and he joins us on the progressive guest line.
37:25
Now, a couple things we have to d- discuss here, Gil, as it's probably weird to be interviewed on your own show. Um, you're- [laughs]...
37:32
on the heels of cashing 80 to 1, the Boston Red Sox to win the most wins in the month of July. I'm just curious, before we look back on that bet, have you ever had a long shot this long and this easy get home for you?
37:47
Uh, the short answer to that, Dustin, first of all, thanks for having me on this fine program- [laughs]... uh, and Kelly. Yeah, this is weird to listen- [laughs] This is really weird to listen to. Really weird.
37:55
And by the w- and by the way, one correction, I did not ask to be on the show. I was asked to be on the show. I asked you. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Thank you. Well, we need it anyway. For God's sake.
38:03
Um, no, the, no, there's never been... I mean, first of all, it's the shortest month, right? Besides March and October.
38:10
It's the shortest month because there's an all-star break, and if you look at those standings, they have cleared the field by five wins. Like, it's just insane how this worked out as beautifully as it did.
38:24
In fact, if they win tonight against the Dodgers here July 31st, I think, and Major League Baseball doesn't do a good job of, of tracking this, calendar months, but I think it's, like, the 11th, tied for the 11th best month with the exception of March and, and October, 11th best month in the history of baseball.
38:43
Well, with that in mind, let's start looking ahead to where you're at for the month of August, because the odds are up, they're available. Dodgers the favorite six to one.
38:53
We have the Rangers nine to one, the Brewers also nine to one, Philadelphia nine and a half to one. Then we get 10 to one or longer. Where's the brain start percolating when you look at some of these teams?
39:04
Well, the biggest discussion for August, as we sort of alluded to off air, is the trade deadline is upon us, right? August 3rd.
39:12
So even though it's pushed back a few days, this becomes the biggest part or maybe one of the biggest parts, if not the biggest part of the calculus here, because you have to sort of figure out, or at least you have to, you know, weigh, "Okay, this team is likely to do this.
39:27
This team is likely to do the opposite. What's going to happen? Who's gonna get this guy? Who's gonna trade this guy?"
39:33
And so it becomes this much, you know, harder sort of thing because there is this one hurdle you have to go. Now, as, as we go through this, you'll find that I sort of went contrarian on this.
39:46
Um, but that's the biggest thing, Dustin and Kelly- Mm-hmm... because you just don't know where the chips will fall three days from now. Yeah, it kinda makes it a team-by-team, uh, basis, for sure.
39:56
So, uh, Gil, w- we're, we're just gonna do this up like usual, man.
39:58
We'll start running through it, and you start running through the whole process, and we'll start like you always do with kinda total games that these teams are gonna play.
40:05
Yeah, and by the way, shout out again to the, uh, the tweeter who, uh, after the first day of July, uh, said, "Oh," after the, uh, Red Sox lost by eight runs- [laughs]... "Oh, Gil's off to a blazing start n- in July."
40:17
So please, after we lose the first game here in, uh, September- Oh... if you could do the same. It's a long month, long month. [laughs] It's a long month. Uh, August.
40:23
So the first thing we go through every month is just the total number of games that every team plays, and the reason we do that is because there are different rules, right?
40:30
William Hill Caesars, they have a dead heat tiebreaker. So if you end up with the same number of wins at the top at the end of the month, well, it's a dead heat. No one likes a dead heat.
40:41
At Circa they have a tie break system. First tiebreaker would be fewest losses if the teams are tied atop with the most wins. The second tiebreaker is the best run differential.
40:51
Obviously, that didn't come into play in July.
40:53
August, and remember when we went through this in July, you'd think it would've been the most mashed up in terms of, like, you know, the top to bottom number of games because it's a shorter month with an all-star break.
41:03
It wasn't. It was from 28 games all the way down to 23. So at least it gives you some context. Hey, maybe don't pick the 23s, even though at Circa that might b- not be the worst thing in the world with the tiebreakers.
41:14
Mm-hmm. August, you look at it, 29, 28, 27, and 26. The Guardians play the fewest games. Again, at William Hill Caesars, that's probably a, a detriment for them. It is a detriment by having less opportunities to win.
41:26
At Circa it might not be the worst thing in the world, fewer opportunities to lose. Um, but there you see the 29 game teams, Boston, Washington, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Arizona, and it cascades down from there.
41:37
So that's kind of the first filter I look through, and then I just sort of narrow it down to, here are the possibilities and here's who I end up going with. So in third place, this is how we do it every month. Yep.
41:47
The team that ended up being my third choice is, and it's not a bet, but it was the Houston Astros. Houston Astros 28 to 1.
41:56
Um, they've got a pretty freaking easy schedule, and what I've done here for, for each of these teams, you see their odds at the top, 28 to 1. That's the William Hill Caesars odds.
42:06
Circa just put out theirs here in the last 24 hours.
42:09
The actual record of the Houston Astros, 55 and 55, and what their record really is based on Pythagorean theorem, which is simply the Bill James formula of runs produced, runs allowed, and also base runs at FanGraphs, which is more of a sequencing thing, and you can be fortunate or unfortunate offensively, defensively.
42:27
That's really more of a window into what their record should be. So you see the Astros aren't really a 500 team. They're actually playing worse than that. Um, but it is an easy schedule.
42:37
Ultimately, it was them being worse than 500 by several games and the fact that I just simply don't trust this baseball team top to bottom. I did not end up going with them, though they were a consideration.
42:47
Dustin, I know you said you thought about them- Yeah... off air. Yeah, that, that's the one that I'm really considering, so now I'm fascinated to hear who beat them. Who, who are the two teams above it? Who's number two?
42:57
Well, number two ended up being the Chicago Cubs. Now, the Chicago Cubs at 18 to one, they were my team in June. I like that. And I got kind of ridiculed for that when I made that pick.
43:06
Some people are like, "I was with you till you got to the Cubs this month." And the Cubs ended up going 16 and 10.
43:12
If it weren't for that Marlins ridiculous 20 and six month of July, and we see what the Marlins have done since then, that would've been in play.
43:20
The Cubs just, you know, the quintessential team that played really poorly in March and April and in May, and then really sort of their skillset really started to manifest in the month of June.
43:30
I love them here, and if I could tell you guys, if I could tell you that Tarik Skubal was gonna end up with Chicago, this would've absolutely been a bet. Of course, I can't know that. Hmm.
43:41
So in the end, it was close, but no cigar on the Cubs, who are exactly, by the way, about what they should be. Their, their actual record is really a reflection where they should be in the standings. Yeah.
43:52
They are what they are cracked up to be. Yeah, I, I, I actually like the... I like where your head's at with the Cubs, 'cause even if they don't get Skubal, what if they get Detmers or Gossman or maybe two of them? Yeah.
44:02
They, they should, they, they should be better in the next few days here. All right, this is the big unveil on the heels of 80 to one. Kelly, what you wanna say? No, it's good.
44:09
The other one that jumps out to me on this one, Gil, on the Cubs real quick before we move on is, you know, we ta- we, we check in all month long on the live, uh, live odds for, for the month.
44:19
This could be a Cubs team that you leave circled. Maybe you get through the series with the Yankees and the Dodgers and then reevaluate where this team's at. 100%. As we do with NFL season win totals- Yeah...
44:30
adjusted season win totals or anything like that. The pick and the bet for the month of August for me was, and this is contrarian, the Detroit Tigers at 60 to one. [laughs] 60 to one.
44:43
I think they are now fif- they went from 50 to one to 60 to one, back to 50 to one now at William Hill Caesars. I think they opened, or last I, the o- only thing I saw it at, uh, Circle was 40 to one.
44:54
Those are playable as well. I got them at 60 to one. Yes, it appears, and Jeff Passan is, is absolutely adamant about this, they will trade Tarik Skubal.
45:03
And quite frankly, um, it would be sort of irresponsible of them not to. Now, there is a world where they don't.
45:11
Let's say they don't get the offer they want, and Detroit sweeps the A's here in the next few days, and they get off to a two and oh start in the month, maybe they reconsider. But most likely, they trade Tarik Skubal.
45:22
Now, here's the thing, so people, the reason that it went from 50 to one to 60 to one and was drifting and is still hovering in that area is because of that specifically.
45:31
But the Detroit Tigers have been the fifth-best team in Major League Baseball since the beginning of June.
45:37
Skubal had something to do with that, absolutely, but they've also been the fifth-best team in weighted expected, or I should say they're the fifth-best team in expected weighted on base. That's offensively.
45:47
That has nothing to do with Skubal. And remember two years ago, Paul Sporer and I, uh, talked about this the other day.
45:54
Two years ago, right around this time, it was actually two years ago to the day yesterday, the Detroit Tigers traded Jack Flaherty to the Los Angeles Dodgers, and it was one of those things where they were selling.
46:03
They were just giving up on the season. And a funny thing happened. They ended up making the playoffs anyway unintentionally.
46:11
They actually won a playoff series against the, uh, Houston Astros, I believe a best of three, then lost to the Guardians subsequently. But that was sort of a, "Oh, what an accident.
46:21
We still ended up making the playoffs." Baseball's a funny sport.
46:24
So I think even if the Tigers do responsibly trade Tarik Skubal rather than get left holding the bag on him at the end of the season, where they won't get nearly the same kind of compensation, the Tigers, I think, are going to thread the needle here, trade Skubal, and s- and unlike two years ago, still have designs on making a post-season with a team that, once again, has been the fifth-best in baseball since the beginning of June and is fifth in expected weighted on base.
46:51
The Detroit Tigers, 60 to one, guys, is the pick for August most wins. I like this for many reasons. We will discuss that when we come back. He's Gil Alexander. 60 to one, the Tigers most wins in the month of August.
47:04
Enjoy the rest of your vacation, my friend. Thank you, brother. Appreciate it. All right, more on that and why that makes a lot of sense when we return on Our Numbers Game. [upbeat music]
A Numbers Game
Listen on
Apple Podcasts
Apple Podcasts
Pocket Casts
Pocket Casts
Castro
Castro
Recent episodes
A Numbers Game | September 17, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 17, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 16, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
