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Jul 31, 2026
A Numbers Game | July 31, 2026 | Hour 3
A Numbers Game | July 31, 2026 | Hour 3
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48:08
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat rock music] This is VSiN, the sports betting network. The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:17
[upbeat rock music] Coming at you from the Circa Sports Book, downtown Las Vegas, I'm Dustin Swedelson, he's Kelly Bidlin. It is Numbers Game VSiN, the sports betting network.
0:30
Appreciate Gil Alexander, the normal host of this program, checking in here as, uh, that was a weird Bizarro World. Yeah, that was odd. Where- That was weird... Gil appearing as a guest on his show.
0:39
I'm here, and I'm not filling in for, I'm not filling in for you, I'm filling in for him, and somehow he's a part of the conversation.
0:46
I also like that it- it's, it's more of the Bizarro, it just felt like too short of a phone call or something, right? Yeah. You're like, "Hey, wait, I'm not done talking to you.
0:53
I usually talk to you for longer than that." I would tell you there's no such thing as too short of a phone call. Yeah, I'm with you. I, I love a good two-minute phone call. Love that.
1:00
I mean, like, honestly, two minutes is too long. I love the, uh [laughs]... There's a joke there. Yeah, yeah. There is. I wasn't, there wasn't intent- There sure is [laughs]... actually was intentional that time.
1:08
I figured it was. Figured it was. The, uh, I love the people that don't mess around at all. Like, just the, it's the old get the answer you need and then hang up, right? Okay.
1:15
So here- Like, "All right, talk to you later." Here's the dichotomy of my life. My father is very much a phone person. Mm. The conversation is, I mean, he'll let it go forever.
1:24
I mean, he- l- legitimately, you can't, uh, and his favorite topic, small talk. Loves weather and gas prices. Oh, God. Weather and gas prices. Oh, God. Two favorite things. My, my, my, my pops. I can't handle it.
1:38
It's why I have high blood pressure, and eating habits, but that too. Yeah, I hear you. My, uh, my dad's getting worse with it as he's getting older. That's the, that's the big thing.
1:45
'Cause now he's, it's all the time in the world, right? You know, got all the time in the world. Well, yeah, that's the problem. But s- see, to me is- That's my dad... if I, 20 years ago, you kidding me?
1:55
He'd be like, he'd be the two-minute phone call. Yeah, yeah. Be like, "All right, yeah, bye."
1:58
If I have all the time in the world, all I can think about is how many better things I could be doing with my time than, than on the phone [laughs]. No, I know.
2:04
I'm saying from them, they have all the time in the world, so it's like, "Yeah, we can talk to you forever." See, but now my future father-in-law, he'll call me. He'll go, "Hey, how you doing?" I'm like, "I'm good.
2:12
You good?" He goes, "Yeah, I'm good. All right, I gotta go." [laughs] I'm like, we didn't even make it a minute. That's the type of phone call I'm looking for here. Yeah, that's great. That's great.
2:18
All right, we get tweets. Say it. Y- you nailed it, man. I know, but I like when you repeat it. What, we get tweets? That's our bit. Oh, okay. Is that I say these, "We get tweets."
2:25
Well, no, you screw it up, and then I end up repeating. Yeah, we have to. I say, "We read tweets." Yeah, yeah, we get tweets.
2:30
All right, our buddy Bob Gettis writes in, "Super bad Rebecca Black, banana-eating HR problems, insight you can only get from two guys with combined 10-plus years of higher education" [laughs] Well done.
2:43
Here's the thing, uh, I've got a bachelor's in fine arts. Oh, man. I believe you only have a bachelor's as well, yet we both went to college- Oh, yeah... for, uh, over five years.
2:50
Uh, "Dustin needs a 24-hour marathon show, needs to have a live bet going at all times." Well, that would be easy for me to have a live bet at all times. I, I like the action. And what, what, what can I say? Okay, okay.
2:58
Tri- I've got, I've got VSiN trivia for you. Okay. That I don't even know if it's true or not. Okay. That's how fun this, uh, uh, this trivia is, okay? Okay. Paulie Howard's the answer.
3:07
Which VSiN on-air personality has more than a bachelor's degree? And there might be more than one. There's probably more than one. VSiN ho- well, no offense to Dave and Jensen, no.
3:18
[laughs] Hey, Jensen went to Vanderbilt, but played baseball. Played baseball, yeah, yeah, yeah. So he was giving up on education. Why would he want more than that? And then- You're never gonna get it... Gil is next.
3:29
That's what I mean. I would say it's [sighs] see, you're g- you're, you're being sneaky. It's probably, like, Whalen or Erickson. I am, I am being sneaky. Yeah, I think it's Nick Whalen or Jeff Erickson. They might.
3:40
I, I also don't know. I don't know the answer to most of these people. Oh, but there is one? I know of one, and it surprised me. It's, it's definitely not Paulie [laughs] he- Wes Reynolds with a master's degree. Shut up.
3:53
Yeah. He loves school. At least that's what I heard. Okay. [laughs] I also- [laughs] It's one of those classic VSiN things that you don't know if it's true. Okay. All right. Ooh. Let's see.
4:03
Uh, some other tweets coming in here. Dan Groeschel writes in, "Gil starts talking up Detroit, he sees 50 to 1 on his app, he starts to bet it. It spins, it's now 33 to 1 for him. I see 30 to 1, 40 to 1 here at Circa."
4:15
So if you like what Gil was cooking with Detroit most wins in, in August, the number would be around 30 to 1 right now, and I have to tell you, uh, a couple reasons why the bet makes sense.
4:25
And I, I'm gonna be on my original, which is Houston at 28 to 1. I'll explain in a minute. But Detroit is asking for a ready-made major leaguer back for Skubal. Mm-hmm. Most notably a pitcher.
4:36
And if you look at what Detroit did during the season, how they clawed back into contention in the Central and, and being four games out of the wild card, they did it with the offense while Skubal was out.
4:44
That's when they made the surge. The reason why I bought in on Detroit a few, uh, maybe a month ago, was the thought that Skubal returns, the offense is clicking, they're gonna go on a run.
4:52
They just, they haven't been able to put it together, but the offense hasn't really been a problem. If you look at runs scored per month, which isn't perfect 'cause it's different amount of games every month.
5:01
Right, yeah. But in April, they scored 118 runs. In May, they only scored 81 in 28 games. How about July? In five less games, they scored 113 runs. Mm-hmm. In June, it was 137. They're scoring runs.
5:15
It's the pitching that needs to hold up. If they can trade Skubal, and look, it's gonna be a drop-off to whoever they get in return, but is it that much when the offense is playing this much better?
5:25
I think this team with Melton now as the number two, Mize is gonna be traded. I do think theoretically, you know, Detroit is absolutely capable.
5:33
Yeah, I think D- Dan has that, you know, at the, his last line, "At that price, I think I have to go full shark tank and be out." That's the, I have a feeling with Skubal being out there, right?
5:41
And you've gotta make this bet here, uh, you know, the next couple days if you're gonna, if you're not gonna play in the live market.
5:46
Um, I ha- I have a feeling there will be a cutoff price for people, as opposed to, I think most other months- Well, it's half... they would just be fire away.
5:53
Yeah, the problem is it's been cut in half now since Gil just mentioned it on the show [laughs] so either the books are listening or you people out there are hammering this thing, which we've seen happen here on VSiN from time to time.
6:03
The reason why I'm gonna go with the Houston Astros, I don't think people realize this. But they were the worst bullpen in baseball until Josh Hader came off the IL just a little bit ago.
6:11
I guess it was, uh, about a month and a half ago, I wanna say. Starting pitching-wise, Hunter Brown has been injured. They've been kind of piecing it together.
6:19
Hunter Brown, who goes tonight, and I like the Astros minus 125, minus 130 tonight, but they have a huge matchup with Texas this week, or today actually, this weekend.
6:29
And I think they take care of business 'cause I think they're starting to play better. Yordan's obviously the MVP, but the lineup is much more than that. But the pitching was so bad to start the year.
6:38
You have to anticipate the positive regression. And by the way, uh, last time I was on with you, we argued about positive regression.
6:43
A very smart listener, uh, a gentleman who is a math guy, explained that there is no positive or negative cor- correlation to regression. Mm-hmm.
6:51
And he explained it to me, and he's like, "It's actually correct, positive and negative regression." So it's just, it's just regression though- Yeah, yeah... is his point. Yeah, yeah, yeah. It was, was his point.
6:59
Whether you're doing it positively or negatively- Yeah, yeah... you're just regressing. Yeah. Yeah. So- That makes sense...
7:03
but I'm looking at the schedule for Texas and, uh, or for H- for Houston, and I mentioned why, uh, uh, I like them as a team overall with the re- with the return of Hader, Hunter Brown now back.
7:12
They're still in contention in the West. I think there's a chance they steal it. Three with Texas, and then listen to this schedule coming up. Three with Toronto, not scared of the Blue Jays.
7:21
They might dump everyone before that series begins- Yep... beginning of next week. San Diego after that. San Diego has been up and down all year. The offense is finally clicking. Who knows how long that lasts?
7:31
At San Francisco, they're sellers at the deadline. Three against Seattle. Seattle can't hit, okay? Houston has a chance to sweep that series. I think two out of three is very likely.
7:43
You also, after that, have the Angels. You have the A's, two of the bottom dwellers in the league, and then they get the Mets and the Yankees for five. Three with the Yankees, two with the Mets.
7:52
Stop looking at the Yankees like they're the Yankees. They don't have Aaron Judge. They've been terrible.
7:57
They have the worst batting average in baseball since he hit the IL, and the Mets are about to unload every piece that they can. I think it shakes out very nicely for the Astros at 28 to 1.
8:07
That is my play for most wins in the month of August. Like it, man. Like it. Hopefully someone gets 1-0, man, huh? I wanna go back to our MVP conversation from a couple segments ago- Yeah, let's do it...
8:17
'cause you, you, you showed me the Cleve TA trends, as we decided that's how you pronounce them.
8:21
And we whittled this thing down to about nine guys who can win MVP, and the trend was 13 straight, 18 of 19 MVPs on teams average just over 13 wins, and
8:34
they were on teams since 2009 that began the year no worse than plus 315 to make the playoffs. Yep. We're also looking at you need to get us over 11 wins or so. That is the objective here.
8:47
So I whittled this thing down based on, on all those parameters, and there's only nine that make sense. And obviously, they're at the top of the betting board.
8:55
Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, those are your favorites, 5 1/2 to 1 to 8 to 1. You have Chicago and Cincinnati, in my opinion. That is Caleb Williams, 13 to 1, Joe Burrow at 8 1/2 to 1.
9:07
The Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes, 10 to 1. Justin Herbert and the Chargers, 10 to 1. That's way too short on Herbert, though. I can't do it. Jalen Hurts is 28 to 1. Brock Purdy is currently sitting at 18 to 1.
9:21
When I wrote him up in the NFL betting guide, it was 22 to 1. I'll tell you this, just based on a numbers thing, and I have a lot of questions about this player, Jalen Hurts at 28 to 1 is intriguing.
9:32
I was just, I was just writing down some names to bounce off you, and Jalen Hurts was, was the first one of, okay, if we wanna play the longer shot game, right, who could still check all these boxes but is further out than, what, 18 to 1, fif- or 15 to 1?
9:46
I just have questions about Philadelphia this year. Yeah, me too. Are, are we sure they win the division? No. No, but they, I mean, no, but I think they are accurately the favorite.
9:55
The defense should be good enough to lift... I think this team's gonna have a pretty high floor. Yes. I don't think they're gonna fall off the face of the earth. Facts. Yeah. 100%.
10:04
I, I, I, I agree completely, and if you look at Nick Sirianni's track record, when he has a, quote-unquote, "disappointing year"- Mm-hmm... by, I think they won 11 games last year. Yeah, dude. Yeah, yeah.
10:12
[laughs] It's still damn good, yeah. But when he has a, quote-unquote, "disappointing year" where things don't feel right, he comes back and he makes the proper adjustments.
10:18
Like, every time he's had one of these, the next year is get to the Super Bowl or win the Super Bowl.
10:22
I, I think, I think the narrative around that team ended up going too far into the off-season and trickling into some of these pre- these preseason conversations, and even some of the markets.
10:32
A- and- So, like, I'm higher on Jalen Hurts than seemingly most people, most people are. But it's okay. The problem is I'm also higher on A.J. Brown than most people are, and I think that's a big problem for them.
10:41
They, no, that, that is an issue. Not having A.J. Brown i- is certainly a, an issue for this team, and specifically for, for, for Hurts. Uh, my big h- problem with Hurts as a quarterback is he's not accurate. Yeah.
10:51
I know people go, "Well, look at his completion percentage." That's not the same thing.
10:54
Completion percentage is the rate at which you are completing passes, and the offense is designed around the fact that he's not an accurate passer. That's why A.J.
11:02
Brown was frustrated, because he couldn't shoot the ball downfield- Mm-hmm... on those shots, those 50/50 balls. He couldn't put 'em in a good spot for A.J. Brown to make plays. That's why A.J. Brown was always upset.
11:12
That is my one hang-up why I can't bet Hurts. I also saw that BetMGM, the most bet MVP for them right now is Joe Burrow. Yeah, it doesn't surprise me. Joe Burrow is tak- and I, I'm, I'm all in on Joe Burrow.
11:22
Yeah, I think he is, uh, set up to have a very, very good season. I- Easy schedule...
11:25
I hate the number at 8 1/2 to 1, but I think based on these, uh, Jalen Hurts is the long- longest o- one you're willing to go, but I can't bet Allen. I can't bet Lamar.
11:34
I'm not betting Herbert when the number's the same as Mahomes. Yeah, totally. And if you wanna read my write-up on MVP, the VSiN NFL Betting Guide's out right now. Brock Purdy is who I previewed there.
11:43
You can check it out, get it for $175. Everything we do now through the Super Bowl, plus the NFL Betting Guide. Just head to vsin.com/subscribe.
11:51
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13:21
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
13:38
Back on our numbers game, Dustin Sweetolson, Kelly Vidlin hanging out with you from the Circa Sports Book in downtown Las Vegas, and it is now time for a Fezzik Friday. Yeah. Yeah, maybe not.
13:50
All right, maybe it's not time. Maybe it is a Fezzik Friday. Whether it's at the sports book or anywhere else in the casino, he's always helping us find an edge. It's time for Fezzik Fridays.
13:59
He is the only two-time winner of the Hilton Super Contest. He is a professional bettor. He has a great head of hair, and he is much nicer than he appears on social media. He is the one, the only Steve Fezzik.
14:12
That was like 500 years ago, so just stop with the two-time thing. Wow, okay. Has anyone won it twice? No. Has anyone won any of these contests twice? That is an excellent question.
14:22
You know, I know Brad Powers is like the king of, of, of top five. Never bet Brad Powers to win. Always top five. [laughs] Always top five. You'll make a ton of money.
14:31
[laughs] But, you know, one, one thing, like the last three years I finished top 21 in millions two of the three years. Wow. Okay. So I mean, when there's 5,000 people, must be doing something right, yes.
14:42
Now, you're right, though, we might need to update the resume a little bit 'cause we're now past Hilton, we're now past Westgate. [laughs] Yeah, it's valid. It's valid. We're on to Caesars at this point. Oh, man.
14:52
Fezz, thanks for joining us. Uh, first of all, the, the, uh, start of a big weekend for you, right? The boot camp. Yeah, so, uh, v- we're at capacity, so we're gonna be- Great...
15:01
be putting- Betting boot camp, not workout boot- although you'd like to host a, a, a workout boot camp as well. No, I need to attend a [laughs] workout boot camp.
15:08
[laughs] Um, but I'm, I'm the wrong side of 60 for that, but, uh, we're real excited. We're at capacity. We, it's a go in four hours, and be pulling back the curtain. In fact, watch this.
15:20
Oh, I've got my, my ultra-secret 41-page outline. If you remember the book- Yeah... in the, the, um, the movie The Paper Chase, and they did, made a TV show about it, though, a guy was always working on his outline.
15:33
He had his outline. He was like, like, better than the course. Well, that's the case with my outline. There we go.
15:39
And Steve Fezzik, the only person in the betting landscape to have a notebook with betting information on it. Definitely the originator of that. [laughs] I'm just making a joke. Making a joke, making a jo- notebook joke.
15:48
I know people get sensitive here. Oh, man.
15:50
All right, Steve, I, I asked you on your way in, uh, about something that, that I get caught up in at times 'cause I think they help frame a conversation, they help identify where a market doesn't really have a proper rating on a team based on w- the total or the side, and that's betting trends, and we get caught up in them a lot.
16:07
I think there is a, there's a role that they play in kinda solidifying a handicap, but they're not the end-all be-all. They don't pay the bills. Where do you come down on betting trends?
16:16
You know, they actually can pay the bills if you get the right trends, but they're better when nobody knows about them, right?
16:23
So for years, like, one of the oldest betting trends was the Monday night home underdog, right? Monday Night Football and, and people just made money off of that like crazy.
16:32
Now, one of the trends everyone likes to support, oh, week one NFL divisional dogs, right? Mm-hmm. That's, that's, that's w- historically it's been so good. Double-digit dogs in, um, week one have been great.
16:45
We've gotta go ahead and bet Arizona plus 11 against the Chargers. So I think that you gotta be careful with trends, and what you wanna avoid is under a full moon, um, in October when the- Tuesday nights...
16:58
when the Bengals are wearing their tiger- Yeah... y- y- y- th- th- their dark orange, you know, helmets, you know, th- like, th- then they cover 88% of the time.
17:08
And you know, a, a great guy, Mark Lawrence, I love Mark Lawrence. All right?
17:11
And the one thing I would say, like, I love Mark is fantastic with his trends and the like, but and he's just, it's kinda like you go into a gourmet restaurant, you go to Barry's and you say, "I want a well-done steak," right?
17:23
Well, he's gonna cook you a well-done steak, but back in the kitchen they're not that happy about it. Mm.
17:26
But people want a 15-0 trend, so Mark has a great trend that's, like, 38 and 9, but then he starts adding more parameters to make it a perfect trend.
17:37
I'd much rather just give me the 38 and 9 trend without, you know, having to have th- they need to be favored by an odd number of points or whatever. Yeah. Mm. Y- y- too many details involved.
17:47
Uh, but, but my whole thing w- with trends, especially as the season goes on, I'm finding it in baseball right now, some of these trends where I go for the full season, I, I, I'll look at them, they'll jump out, and I go, "Well, I wanna back that trend because it's been right for so long," but don't the guys and the people making the numbers, aren't they aware of the trend and they start to adjust how the team's performing based on the original numbers?
18:07
No. It's one of the biggest myths- Really?... I b- I believe. Like, when you hear Vegas knows everything, all right? You hear that all the time. Vegas knows nothing.
18:16
I mean, it's, it's, it's just a myth, and the best example I can give of this, I can prove it. There was a Duquesne basketball game, like, 15 years ago, and the total got put up at, like, 144. Mm-hmm.
18:28
At one book, all right? Wedon'tknowverymuch.com And every single book, and what they did is the game before had been 144, [laughs] so they accidentally cut and pasted- Right... made 144.
18:39
So the entire world opened 144, meaning, wait a minute, if Vegas knows everything and the correct total is, like, 131.
18:47
So throughout the day, the Duquesne total got smashed under, like, like, initially it went, it dropped by four points, the next hour by three points. It just kept moving lower and lower.
18:57
So if all these Vegas Hall of Fame bookmakers and everyone else is so good, how come there was not one guy that said, "These guys are idiots. I'll just make it, I'll just open at 133."
19:07
'Cause- There, there, that number's just wrong... 'cause they copy them, copy each other. Everyone copies- Mm-hmm... and pastes. That's, that's the real truth.
19:13
A- and the best evidence I can give that Vegas knows nothing also is that you will see a point spread that will be two, all right? And everyone copies it at two, and then, um, inevitably it goes up to three maybe.
19:26
And, and everybody deals three, and not one person will stick their neck out and deal two and a half or three and a half, because deep down they know. They've tried it. It's like the hot stove.
19:34
They've put their hand on the stove and they've gotten burned. Right.
19:37
Because if they make it three and a half and it's wrong, someone's gonna come in immediately and bet $50,000 with a good bet at plus three and a half, so they're just gonna stay on market.
19:46
It's also why you hear us make such a big deal about shops like South Point, right? That don't, that are not, uh, pushing the extra vig and you're going to, taking a position sometimes like that.
19:55
Yeah, so Michael Gaughan, I believe, um, always dictated way, a- at, when we deal the NFL or college football, we're dealing minus 110. Right. That's gonna be the vig.
20:05
So it's a tough situation when a line's [laughs] 3.25. Yeah. Half the books have three and half have three and a half, but they're adjusting for vig- Mm-hmm...
20:12
and the South Point will oftentimes ping pong back and forth between three and three and a half. So if you just, you know, just be cool, wait your time, hang out, you know, go over and get- Go see a movie...
20:23
go see- Get a hot dog... go, go bowling, which is much more fun- Two hot dogs... to hold two-handed, by the way. And by the way, the three hot dog limit, they do not enforce it.
20:30
[laughs] You can go right back of the line. Yeah, you don't think the guy making the hot dogs is remembering your face and writing it down? [laughs] Believe me. Oh.
20:36
That person be- be- be- be- behind you, they, they got enough to worry about, like, making sure they don't run out of mustard. You- How much is the hot dog there? It's, uh- $1.50... it's $1.50. It went up, right? Yeah.
20:45
I mean- Yeah, I mean, look, I'm a big boy right now. I'm trying to lose weight. When we did the shows over there- [laughs] I ate way too many hot dogs... I had too many days where I went, "You know, I haven't eaten yet."
20:52
Right. "I'm about to go up to the studio. Let me grab three hot dogs on the way in."
20:56
[laughs] And, and when the hot dog, when the, when they close down sometimes in the back bowling alley, all right, the, the tournament area- Oh, this is key. Yep...
21:04
sometimes the dogs are still there at the hot dog cart- What's-... and you can still get it for a buck 50. I did see someone on the crew do that once where I was like- [laughs]... "The hot dog cart's been shut down.
21:12
Where did you just come back with hot dogs from?" And that was the answer. Him. Famous hot dog star- stalker, Steve Fezzik, is our guest, professional bettor at Fezzik Sports on X. You sent over your NFL power ratings.
21:24
Love this. Yep. We'll, we'll, we'll get into your process first, but it's pretty staggering where you're at with your numbers. So you sent it over.
21:30
Your number one power rated team in the NFL is the Los Angeles Rams at 6.9, but what's the drop-off from them to the second team? Yeah, what does that 6.9 mean?
21:40
Well, on a neutral site, if the Rams play an average team, they should be laying 6.9, which would be, like, minus seven plus 100.
21:48
Um, the huge drop-off, Buffalo, my number two team, and these are subject to change- Sure... on a weekly basis. Even though they're number two, plus 4.3. So the Rams are m- light years above.
22:01
The differential between them and the second-best team is 2.6 points, and then a whole bunch of other teams. Uh, Buffalo's two, and then I won't read all the numbers here.
22:11
Uh, Baltimore three, Seattle four, San Fran five, Detroit six, Houston seven, but all six of those teams I've got rated four to three points better than an average team.
22:22
So it's just a cluster of teams that are very, very close together. Yeah, love that. A- and, and, and Steve, let's talk about what goes into your power ratings? Where do you start every season?
22:33
What are the biggest factors in a power rating for each team? All that kind of stuff. Where do you start it at? Everyone's different, and there's different methods.
22:41
There's the Kenny White method where he evaluates each and every player, and he, and Kenny's fantastic. Mm-hmm. All right? I lack the acumen be- ha- have any clue to be able to rate all these players.
22:52
So here's what I do. I start out with the season win number. Let's say everyone played the same strength of schedule. Uh, 17 games, if your season win's eight and a half, you have an average schedule.
23:00
Your power rating's zero. You're obviously an average team, and the average team should have a power rating of zero.
23:06
If you're rated at nine and a half for a season win, that's actually means you're two points better than an average team. 10 and a half, four points better. 11 and a half would be six points better.
23:15
That assumes an average schedule. Right. Now I gotta adjust. Like, Arizona has an extremely difficult schedule, so I gotta adjust for their strength of schedule, and then I start tweaking. All right? Mm-hmm.
23:24
I start doing other things. I, I talk with Dr. Chow, and he's g- a, what teams were very injured last year? What were, what teams weren't injured? So Arizona had, had tons of injuries last year.
23:35
Jacksonville had hardly any. So I'm gonna downgrade Jacksonville. They're probably gonna have more injuries this year than last year. I talked to Scott Seidenberger.
23:42
I get his trench report, make a little tweak for, like, the Rams have a phenomenal, um, [smacks lips] uh, O-line and D-line combo.
23:50
They're my n- they, they're Scott's number one rated trench report team, so they get a little bit of a bump.
23:55
Um, and then they look at Cleave TA and DVOA ratings, and if they've got strong opinions, like they love Houston, all right? Smart guys. I upgrade Houston.
24:05
We'll do more on the process, Steve Fezzik and his power ratings, how he got to his top five, and more on the other side of the break. Plus, if you're Steve Fezzik in the flesh, in the wild, how should you approach?
24:16
That's next on A Numbers Game. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
24:30
[upbeat rock music]Back here on our Numbers Game, Dustin Sweetolson in for Gil Alexander. Wanna remind you guys here, Sunday is the last day to enter Winner's Circle Proxy and VSiN.
24:45
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24:52
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25:08
Visit winnerscircleproxy.com/vsin and enter now. That's winnerscircleproxy.com/vsin. Kelly Bidlin here as always. Steve Fezzik, professional bettor, along for a Fezzik Friday. And you know what?
25:19
Proxy service kind of puts me i- in the direction of one thing you sent over in your notes.
25:24
Have a betting partner or people that you bet with, that are all over, that can help you get down, and I think it's really smart.
25:30
I know, like, you, Will Hill, you have people over that you communicate, not just if you like a bet, but, "Hey, what's available to you where you're currently sitting?" How do you handle managing that day in and day out?
25:41
Yeah, because we all have lives, right? And you're, you're going to a wedding, you're going to a bar mitzvah, um, you're g- you're, you're late and your family's going to a movie, and you just get a, a tip.
25:51
You gotta bet Ottawa plus seven, right? You gotta have a buddy that can just, you can just text and say, "Hey, get me a dime on Ottawa. Best number. Thank you." Like, and not even check your phone. Yeah.
26:01
And you don't, you don't want them come back and, like, "Well, I can get this, that, or the other thing." It's like, you don't have time for this, all right? You just wanna have a trusted guy that can make you...
26:11
It's like the, uh, what the NFL used to say, "You make the call," right? And your buddy will say, if you, if you ask for a dime, he says, "Oh, I only got you 700 'cause I couldn't get the best number."
26:19
You know, he, he just makes a judgment call and you're happy. And I've got, like, I'm fortunate enough, like Crack is great at that. You know? Mm-hmm.
26:26
Like, if, like, if I need to get a bet down, um, I know I can just text Crack and he can always do it. But I've got several people like that 'cause we, I mean, you can't be working 24/7.
26:34
But it's also w- we're in Nevada, we can't get down on prediction markets, so you have to have people who are in some of those states who can place something down for you.
26:42
Then there's a lot of times where a, a DraftKings, a FanDuel, someone has a market available that we don't have out here. You text a friend, "What are you seeing? They have it? All right.
26:51
Here, Venmo the money [laughs] and c- can you remember it's my ticket, though, before you cash it out." And most importantly, when it comes to the Ottawa Redblacks, you gotta get the best of the number.
26:59
[laughs] You know? More so than anything else. Why, why- Well, you, you talk about the, the best numbers, and pe- people, it's funny because I bet a lot. I, I'm, I'm a volume player. Right.
27:07
And I'm the guy that tells everyone d- I, I don't even bother the day of the game playing pro sports- No... MLB, um, NFL s- Monday Night Football. What are you doing? I mean, it's not 1998. You're not going to win.
27:21
The Dodgers are playing Seattle. It's obvious the Dodgers are the right side. The next day, all right? Yeah. But the Dodgers are minus 150, Seattle's plus 135.
27:29
You go on to, like, some of the, novig.com and some of these prediction machines, betting exchanges, the Dodgers are minus 139 and a half. Seattle's plus 139.
27:38
There's, like, no vig at all in that number, thus the name novig.com. Or there might be a one, minus 140 plus 139 straddle. So there's a one cent straddle versus a 15 cent straddle.
27:49
If, now, that doesn't prove you can't win playing minus 150 or plus 135, but it kind of does prove it. Mm-hmm.
27:56
Because if you really could win taking Seattle plus 135, you would be making millions betting Seattle plus 139. Right. Yeah.
28:03
Let, let, let's go back to your power ratings though, Steve, because part of the reason why you can make snap calls and say, "That's an off number, I want that number," is 'cause you have your own numbers.
28:12
And we were talking about your power ratings, where you have the Rams at 6.9. The Bills are number two in your NFL power rating at 4.3, followed by the Ravens and the Seahawks at 3.9, and then San Francisco at 3.4.
28:24
You can immediately know, neutral field, this is where I have these two teams against each other. Then you start factoring home field and situations that you wanna also bring into the conversation.
28:33
But because you have these ratings handy, you know when you look at the number, "Hang on, I've gotta get a bet down now before this thing moves." Yeah.
28:40
So I only have five seconds, and San Fran is, is playing the Rams, and it's in Australia. That's, believe that would be neutral. I don't know. I gotta check. Yeah. [laughs] Ah. You know?
28:48
I know some m- big Rams fans down there. [laughs] Uh, you know, or, or, or, or which team will travel better. But boom, okay, 6.9 minus 3.4, that line should be three and a half.
28:58
Well, it is three and a half, so that's not gonna do me any good. But just to give an example of a, a bet I would make right now, I have Green Bay 2.7, I have the Vikings 0.3.
29:08
So I have Green Bay 2.4 points better than the Vikings on a neutral. Now, the Vikings have a big home field, but it's a divisional game. Divisional home field's probably worth one and a half only.
29:18
So I'm looking at Minnesota should be a slight underdog, and Minnesota's now flipped to a small favorite. So gun to my head, um, I need to make a pick on that game, I would go ahead and invest in Green Bay. Yeah.
29:32
L- love that.
29:33
Love how you broke down how you do your power ratings, Steve, 'cause I think that the, actually, the thing I love the most is you just t- talking about how there are most, wildly different ways from person to person, right?
29:43
And that's fine. And yours are a little bit more basic, and that's fine, right? You're not going as in-depth as Kenny White and going out player ratings. I would argue my ratings are massively in-depth. Okay.
29:52
They're just not in-depth, uh, uh, they have nothing to do with the player ratings. You're right. You're not caught, you're not caught up in the details. You're looking at it as a whole- But the team, they-...
30:00
the team as a whole... but they'd be better with the details. Let me, let me add, like, if I could sit Kenny White and get all of his player ratings- Right. Yeah, yeah...
30:05
incorporate that, and who's under and overvalued, even better. Now, now, um, w- a- and it's very fluid because, like, Carolina keeps having guys get hurt. Sure. So my number probably is a little bit too high.
30:16
What do I have Carolina? I got them 25th at minus 2.7. They probably should be, like, minus 3.2. Yeah. You know? Like, like, literally you can adjust this on a daily basis, but depending upon news that's coming out.
30:26
Yeah. I love it. I love it. Th- th- this is, this is the strategy. This is what you're looking for.
30:30
It's, it's tools to have in your back pocket, so when the opportunity comes to take advantage of a situation, when a line is on the move You can look at it and say, "This is off. Something smells funny here."
30:40
Steve Fezzik is our guest. It's a weird transition back to Steve, professional bettor @FezzikSports on X. People are gonna see you out, out in the flesh, in the wild. Bet Bash is coming up.
30:50
You sent some, some stuff over about talking to you, approaching you. [laughs] What's the strategy- Oh... for getting the best of Fezz?
30:55
Oh, you, you know, and, and just to, uh, put a bow on everything, everything we're talking about is really bottom-up handicapping, and bottom-up handicapping, where you make your own numbers, is so good 'cause, like, they put up, like a- a- games of the year come up, and, and you got your numbers.
31:08
You don't have to- Immediately... you don't have to call Brad Powers, "Help! I don't know [laughs] who I should bet on." You can just make your own bets.
31:14
That's why, you know, Brad Powers wins every year is he winds up, you know, taking plus 18 on a team, and they close the favorite. Right, yeah. [laughs] And then, and then he wins one- Yeah, yeah.
31:23
[laughs] He wins, he wins 60% of those, even though he should win 90. Win- wins both sides of the bet. [laughs] Right, right, right.
31:27
Um, but, but no, I- I think as far as, like, what, like, when I'm out and about, one thing that I- I love when people come up and, and want to talk to me.
31:34
It's great when they b- they bounce, like, like, the, the people I'm most interested in when they just do one thing.
31:39
Someone just PM'd me, and they're, they, they have a site, and I'm sorry I don't have it in front of me. They have a grand salami site. This is all they do. [laughs] Ooh. This is their thing.
31:48
You, you used to be a big grand salami bettor. I still is. I love- Yeah... I love salami. And, and- Explain what it... It's the- Total runs-... runs on a board... scored on any one day.
31:57
If there's a rain out, it's, it's a push. All game. And they have it in the NFL. So like, it's, it's a really fun bet.
32:02
Like, if you think scoring's gonna, like, it like, um, Jeff Benson put this up [laughs] for a, um, for Circa. Total points scored in the NFL for the entire year. That season. That's great. Yeah.
32:13
And it's like they're anticipating, like, right about 46 points per, per game.
32:17
So if you feel like with the rules changes or whatever that there's, hey, there's gonna be more three tight ends and they're gonna be running more clock, then boom, you can, you can go ahead and invest in the opinion.
32:26
And the great thing about a grand salami, the data is you're getting so many more games, that if you're directionally right, you're winning.
32:33
You're going to win because the, the, well, who cares if there's one punt return touchdown? That's only seven points on 12,000 points. Who cares? Right, yeah. You don't- Yeah... yeah, yeah. One bad beat can't hurt you.
32:43
You need a bunch of bad beats [laughs] to hurt you. Ex- ex- exactly. I like that. All right, before we go, only have about two minutes here, Steve.
32:49
First, Gil Alexander cashes 80 to 1, no swe- the least sweating in the history of 80-1 bets on the Boston Red Sox to have the most wins in the month of July.
32:58
A- and, you know, Mike Palm does a great segment where you cannot be serious. I have one today. So you cannot be serious. Trolls on the internet talking flak about Gil Alexander. "Oh, 80 to 1. It wasn't out there."
33:13
Yes, it was out there. It was available. Absolutely people bet it. And it's obvious it was available. You know why? 'Cause the Red Sox sucked- They were horrible... in April. Mm. They were bad in May. We buried them.
33:27
Exactly. That's my favorite part of him cashing that bet, actually. So- It's not, it's not only getting the 80 to 1 home. It's the massive CLV that he got on it too. He, he did.
33:33
And it was like 20 to 1 at close, most, most places. Well, he, and he did, like, all his research, and he's like, "Hey, really good pitching. Red Sox have a really easy schedule now in July.
33:43
It's the perfect time to jump on it." But it's obvious that they weren't gonna be 30 to 1. They were well below average. Mm. So of course they're gonna be priced 50 to 1 to 80 to 1.
33:52
And he, he, he, and he did indeed get the 80 to 1. He should've had a 65 to 1 the year before, and yet the trolls come out, and they complain. You know, the same thing's really true, we talk about notebooks.
34:01
So @GRPWins is a guy that's a winning poker player. He, he makes sports bets. Not all of his bets are great. Some of his bets are phenomenally.
34:10
Won like, like 60,000, 70,000 on the Car- on Carolina in the NBA, and people were like- Yeah... you know, trolling him, and like, like, like, saying, "You know what? Give credit..."
34:19
Most people, you know, have really good ideas, and they don't execute them properly. Gil has great ideas, and he executes on them, you know, fantastically well. That's just an example, one.
34:30
And b- frankly, anyone that, that, that is coming in and say, "Oh, you didn't really bet that," probably is just a little bit, um, there might be some jealousy involved. Well, they didn't bet it, for sure. Yeah.
34:39
And, and the anger is showing. All right, 20 seconds, Steve. You went to Carbone. Scale of one to 10, how would you rate it? 10. Really? Service, 10. Never been there before. Been to John George.
34:49
I, you know, I would've rated John George [laughs] a, a, a 10. Now it's a nine. [laughs] It's at Aria. Hot take, the French restaurant that never has anyone in it across from those two spots, amazing. Yeah, it was good.
35:00
Very strong meal. From the service to the, the dining room, you just feel like, my gosh, this is, like, a- and, and we just had a world-class meal.
35:11
Um, just, uh, shout out, uh, Doug compt us there, a, a, a, a friend of Kevin O'Neill's- Steve Fezzik, check him out, Betting Boot Camp. Plus next week, Bet Bash. Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more.
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36:23
[rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back at it on A and G.
36:41
I'm Dustin Swedelson. That is Kelly Bidlin. We are the New Age Outlaws. No, we're just two, uh, bearded- That wasn't as enthusiastic as you usually do The, you know what, man? No, no, no, the finger point. Oh.
36:51
Come on, it was like a full body thing before. There you go. Yeah. There you go. You know what? I gotta, I gotta g- I'm not as limber this morning.
36:57
Don't, oh, don't be slacking on everybody out there just 'cause it's a Friday. Come on. I didn't, I didn't do my morning yoga. Okay. I'm not, I'm not very zen. Next week, Dustin will be better.
37:04
Yeah, I'll, I'll be a little bit more flexible when I make it into the studio. These chairs certainly don't help the matter, I would tell you that. Oh, they, you know what?
37:10
They don't, and I know nobody cares about this, but- No, I leave every day, I go, "Why am I so sore?" And I'm like, "I think it's the chair." It's that. It is that. It, yeah, it absolutely is.
37:17
And I always feel- Now it's also probably an extra 200 pounds on my stomach, but yeah, that too I always... I, I don't know how you feel, I always feel like I'm sitting oddly when we're in these spots, right?
37:26
The only thing I like about being in the middle is that I can naturally just sit back in these, in these chairs- Yeah, yeah, yeah... because this is how they're designed- No, they, no, these-...
37:33
and I can stay out of the way... these chairs are designed for you to sit like this. Right. Here's the problem. The microphone is there.
37:39
[laughs] So you're supposed to sit like this, which would probably be the comfortable way for someone, but yet you- But you do- Get up on it... we can do a whole show like this to see, see the comments.
37:48
Or you could sit like Paulie does. Paulie's like down here sometimes. Oh, that poor guy's back. What, what is he, what is- Oh, yeah. Well, he's got heating pads. Yeah. He's got, he's doing stretches, all sorts of things.
37:57
Uh, we get tweets. You're still not on it. We get tweets. I don't have to correct you. You nailed it this time. I know. But I like when you echo it. [laughs] It feels like that's the bits. We get tweets.
38:06
Yeah, I go, "We get tweets." You go, "We get tweets." [laughs] You just repeat what I say, whatever. All right.
38:10
Brandon Webb writes in, uh, on my banana comment, "Don't make eye contact and it's not an HR violation at work." It's not a violation as long as you bring the banana to your mouth and not bring your mouth to the banana.
38:20
[laughs] That is a funny comment. Uh, Shooter's Tour is trying to stir some stuff up. He said, "I heard that notebook comment. @grpwins, they're taking shots at you." Yeah, it's called a joke about the notebooks.
38:33
It was gracefully about a joke. But also plenty of credit was given to one Mr. GRP as well. Yep. These people on the internet, they just love to cause chaos. Stop causing chaos in my life.
38:43
He's still cashing Hornets bets. Good for him. Yeah. He's won a lot of money. Mm-hmm. But- We'll see him next week. He'll be out here.
38:49
There is something to be said though, when you hit a big tech- ticket, everyone doubts that you have the ticket, and I don't understand it. I, I honestly don't understand it. No, I know. It's e- it's more than that.
38:58
The part that I, I, I won't get having played so many years of, of poker at high levels, competitive levels, where you're trying to take the money from the guy across the table from you. I get that.
39:11
In the sports betting world I n- it never makes any sense to me 'cause we're not trying to take each other's money. Why, why do, why do we all hate each other? Why do we care?
39:17
Or why do we hate on everything that everybody else does? Also the, the- It's not my, not your money I'm coming after. Hey, I didn't- I'm coming after theirs... I didn't see that number out there. All I see is this.
39:25
Well, you didn't bet at the same time I did then. [laughs] Okay? Mm-hmm. Also, and if we all cash and we all have different numbers, who cares as, as long as we all win?
39:32
There's also this element of, "I have this ticket and I'm gonna defend it, and I'm gonna try to make the case why it should be right." Here's the thing that we get lost in that whole waste of energy.
39:43
The games will be played. Right. [laughs] We will find out who's right, and then you just move on to the next one. Oh, man. I don't, I don't understand the outrage.
39:50
That, that, that right there though, what you just mentioned, is the, is why I love and hate awards betting, and I do so much of it, right? 'Cause you could sit...
39:59
I, you know every year how many awards bets that I have that don't cash? And I'm like, "Yeah, but I was right." Look, the only- "These guys are wrong. I'm right."
40:04
The only time I've ever seen posturing work for an awards, and it was not a bettor, so you have to keep that in mind, is when Kendrick Perkins went on the anti-Jokic, pro-Embiid tour a couple years ago- Mm...
40:14
and started that conversation, which took Jokic away from winning another MVP because he had n- he hadn't won a championship yet, which was the dumbest reasoning in the history of reasoning for someone not to win an MVP for a regular season award that they hadn't won a championship, and all it did was push Jokic to win a title that year.
40:32
Yep. Yeah. 100%, man. But if you want more, uh, awards bets, we have some great ones in the VSiN NFL Betting Guide. Today's your last day to lock in early bird pricing on our football special.
40:42
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40:50
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40:56
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41:00
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41:11
Head to vsin.com/subscribe to lock in for the season today. And speaking of bets, we should probably get some baseball bets on the board for today, Kelly Bidlin. Let's do it. Yeah, let's hit your baseball bets.
41:21
We haven't, we barely talked about those at all. So he- Well, we mentioned one of these maybe. Yeah, we mentioned the Cubs already. First five, why I like it against the Yankees.
41:28
That one comes up in about an hour and 10 minutes, I believe. Let me get the exact time on that bad boy. But, uh, it's 11:20 our time, so what's that? 2:20 PM Eastern. Yeah, 2:20 Eastern. Yep.
41:38
It's Will Warren against Imanaga. One, Will Warren has bad road numbers. Imanaga's been on a heater. Last five starts, a 155 ERA, but also Yankees offense scuffling and they don't have two of their best lefty hitters.
41:49
I mean, guys who hit lefties well. Hmm. Ben Rice is there, right? He, he's in the lineup. Paul Goldschmidt's there, lefty killer. But no Judge, no Bellinger. That really hurts their offense.
41:59
I'm gonna ride the hot hand in Imanaga at home. First five, minus a half run, minus 108 on the Cubbies today at Wrigley Field. Ding. Like it. That's number one. All right. Number two. Numero dos. Marlins Mets in oppo?
42:12
Oppo physic. Yeah, I'm- I mean, you could both win... yeah, but I'm going first five plus a half a run. Or you both can't win. You, he could push, you can win. Yeah, couple elements at play here.
42:22
One, Freddy Peralta's last start as a New York Met. I don't know how deep he's going, whether that's because Mar- the Marlins knock him out, or the Mets don't want him to get injured in this spot.
42:33
And honestly, I don't think he's gonna do very well. Uh, he has a 6.17 ERA in two starts against the Marlins lineup this year. The Mets have scored seven runs [laughs] in their last three games.
42:44
Miami just took three of their last four. They swept Philly, they lost on, on Thursday to the Mets. I think they bounce back. I'm not a big Jansen junk guy, but I'm not a big Freddy Peralta guy, more importantly. Hmm.
42:55
And I think just his time with the Mets is about to fizzle out. I'm going first five plus a half run, and I, the reason I did half run, not the plus money and, and, and settle for a tie- I love those...
43:05
and get the drop- Yeah... is that I think there is a good chance that we are tied through five. Yeah, I, I like those. I like taking that half a run if you're staring at the dog. Okay, Astros, Angers, uh, Rangers here.
43:16
My favorite part of this matchup, Dustin, is the, I feel like these are the two teams, two of the AL teams that I've heard people take stances on. Like, this is a team... I mean, the Astros, we just kind of- Yeah...
43:26
did for August, right? But like, everybody seems to be very pro one of these teams and anti the other, uh, which is kind of cracking me up.
43:32
Well, what's funny is, uh, preseason, and I gave this out on Cashing Out, part of our core four, and they're the few that I'm right on. I have Astros under win total. It was a big win total. Mm-hmm.
43:43
They're not gonna get there. But I also have Rangers to win the division plus 340. Nice. Okay. However, I think Houston has a chance to win this thing. They're a half game out.
43:51
They have just been messing around all season long and waiting in the wings. Texas's offense has been better lately. It was horrible at the beginning.
43:58
Wyatt Langford just adds so much length to the lineup, and obviously the pitching with Eovaldi and deGrom, you always have a fighting chance, but you know, Gore hasn't been as good lately.
44:07
There's some other guys in the rotation you don't love. I don't love their bullpen long-term here, even though the numbers aren't horrendous.
44:13
In this spot, I'm going with Houston on the chance that Hunter Brown is back into form. And by the way, I should give out, the line has moved a little. It's Houston minus 131 now, plus 109 with Texas.
44:23
Seven and a half is the total. Hunter Brown, his last start out looked a lot better. Uh, seven shutout innings at the White Sox. Seven strikeouts, no walks was the key.
44:33
If he's all the way back, I love Houston long-term here to make a run, but I really like them tonight. And at Texas just a few weeks ago, six innings, three earned, five walks, four strikeouts for him.
44:44
Last year verse Texas in three starts, he had a 2.37 ERA and 25 K's in 19 innings. Eovaldi, seven innings pitched in each start verse Houston, but five earned at home, zero on the road. Mixed bag here.
44:55
He's on the road where he was better last time. Does that continue? I'd rather back Houston, who I think has a lot of upside here, and I'm going full game.
45:03
Because the bullpen for Houston, the numbers have improved dramatically since Josh Hader has been back into the fold here for this bullpen. I like Houston minus 131 here.
45:12
I got minus 125 earlier, and I, I think they might be making the playoffs. Ooh, I like it. I mean, it probably- What, what's that number? I have no idea...
45:20
to make the playoffs, it's probably all not that great, just because they're in the mix for the wild card and that division. And Seattle's gonna be regretting themselves by the time this thing's all said and done.
45:29
Houston to make the playoffs plus 120. Okay.
45:31
Kind of throwing that out, 'cause it's, if, if you g- you and Gil, and anybody else out there, right, if you're interested in this team most wins in August, yeah, it's probably not a bad bet to talk about as well.
45:41
Half game out of the west, a game out of the wild card, and the, the teams in front of them for that last wild card, Minnesota and Cleveland. Let, let's think about it just on, on upside.
45:49
Cleveland playing a bit over their skis, although I do like their young offense, but every time I say, I say on the air that I believe in them- Yeah... they, they get murdered.
45:56
And then Minnesota, this roster being this good makes no sense. It, yeah. They are definitely p- playing better than they should. Houston has a chance. Baltimore has a chance as well, by the way.
46:04
Baltimore- I mean, you would-... is not out of this... you would say Houston and Baltimore higher upside than those other two teams, right? Oh, two completely underachieving- Yeah... franchises this year.
46:11
And then the last play officially, and I might add more, we're gonna go Shane Drohan of Milwaukee over five and a half K's at the Angels. He's cleared this in four out of five.
46:19
The Angels 29th in K rate, same number, 29th at home for them. They swing and miss a ton. Their, their lineup just doesn't put the ball in play. Drohan's been in good form. We'll see if it gets home.
46:29
It's a little risky, but I do like him to get to six strikeouts. Like it. What do you like, Ellie? Dustin hitting the Dro on a Friday, of course.
46:34
Fezick first five on the Mets, so a little opposite of Dustin, and then two awards bets from me this week, Dustin. What do you think about these? A.J. Brown to win Offensive Player of the Year at 60 to 1.
46:45
I'm going to bomb in that market, and one of the shorter shots in Rookie of the Year, Ja'neari Price nine to one. Well, that'll do it for us today. It was fun, man. We'll do it all next week. We will. I'm in for Gil.
46:53
Don't go anywhere. There are prop points coming up next. Brandon Kravitz, Eric Halterman, they'll be joined by Steve Phillips. Lot of insight on the MLB trade deadline. Not a lot of activity this morning.
47:03
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47:59
From a great deal today to great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. ShopToyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places.
A Numbers Game
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