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Jul 3, 2024
A Numbers Game | July 3, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | July 3, 2024 | Hour 2
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:08
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, uh, Game, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. Sorry, Gil, I was trying to multitask right there. Um, you okay? You all right?
0:21
W- was this was a traumatizing thing you just texted me? [laughs] No, I was just saying- Oh... it was, it was a follow, a follow-up to the, uh, on the break conversation.
0:27
[laughs] Any way you, uh, take us in, uh, YouTube TV, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander. That's Kelly Bidlin. It's hour number two here at the Numbers Game.
0:36
Um, still to come, we will talk John Deere Classic. Kelly's got some thoughts. Um, the Open Championship's still two weeks away, so, uh, looking forward to golf's last major, but we got John Deere this week.
0:48
Jason Weingart will join us. We will talk NFL fewest wins, since whenever we talk NFL, it sort of whets our appetite, so we're, uh, anxious to talk that.
0:56
But first, let's talk some NBA free agency and see if the needle has moved betting-wise with Tom Byrne from Mad Dog Sports Radio.
1:03
You can follow him on Twitter at 1, that's the number 1, Tom Byrne, Byrne spelled B-Y-R-N-E, joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Tom? Doing very well, gentlemen. Thank you. Appreciate it.
1:14
Uh, you were saying off-air that I, uh, and I didn't really get the, the, the gist of this. I, I screwed you somehow? What did I do? Yeah, so here's what happens, and it's, it's a true story.
1:24
So I, I catch wind of this new market, hey, most wins in June. So I'm looking, all right, let me look into this. You know, Caesars in my state offers it. I see Houston, my model loves it, all power ratings did, right?
1:37
Even though they had stunk up the joint until then. I look, I see 24 to one on Caesars. Now, typically, if this is an overnight market, I would've jumped on that, 'cause you know our, how our brains work.
1:46
Oh, I gotta get this before it moves. But for whatever reason, ah, I'll get back to it in the morning. [laughs] Next morning, I'm going through the channels, SiriusXM.
1:54
I get to, eventually, you guys, 'cause I'm still listening to you guys, even though you're no longer with us, but I still listen. It's a quality program. And anyway, I tend to go back to the beginning of the hour.
2:03
You know how you can push that arrow button over? Yes, sir. And, and so I'm about, I don't know, I'm a little behind, long story short, and I hear you say, "Well, I'm gonna give away my pick for most wins in June."
2:14
I said, "Oh, this'll be interesting." [laughs] You come back, you take the Astros. [laughs] This'll be interesting. So I think, oh, shoot. I open up the app. 24 to one is down to 15 to one. Did I do that? And then later
2:28
it got back to 18 to one, but of course, God forbid, I can't take a number at 18 to one when I knew it- Ah... at one point it was 24 to one. I stay off it. You know how it ends. So congratulations to you. Thank you.
2:39
Man, was I hurting. You know what, though? That- [laughs] You, you just hit on something that, that comes up all the time, which is, well, you know, it was 24 to one.
2:47
So the, the, uh, it is against my, my DNA s- you know, my DNA- Right... to possibly bet it at 18 to one. I think we probably go too far on that sometimes. Oh, definitely. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Oh, 100 percent. Of course.
3:02
I, I- Yeah... I felt like, you know, such a mush at that final week, and even the, the Mets series especially. I found myself rooting against the play. I felt bad.
3:11
I'm rooting against you guys, but of course, you know how your brain works. Yeah. What an excuse for- Well-... 100 percent, I should've taken it 18 to one.
3:17
Well, Tom, I apologize, uh, deeply, and, uh, I'm sorry we got off to this start. [laughs] Well, uh, did you do July? Did you bet anything in July? I did not, actually. Okay. I know you have Kansas City.
3:28
I, you know, they don't play enough games for me. I, I wanted to... You know, Arizona's got way too tough a schedule, even though I feel like they're due for positive regression, but I did not take anybody this month.
3:36
Okay. I'm still hurting. All right. I'm sorry about that. Okay. Yeah, yeah. Let's talk NBA then. Okay. We can be friends on the NBA. [laughs] Um, Paul George may be the biggest headliner move, I guess.
3:45
What's, what's, for you, what has been the most impactful, either that one or beyond? Yeah, the Paul George move is the most impactful. Now, does it make you open up your app and immediately run the play to Sixers?
3:57
No, for a number of reasons. Number one, the obvious. Joel Embiid is never healthy. Nobody knows better than me. I'm in this town.
4:03
I mean, bottom line is he is as good a player in terms of impact and winner that I have ever seen with my own eyes. I mean, he impacts winning more than AI did in my estimation, more than Charles Barkley, and I saw him.
4:13
I was young. I mean, the guy's great, but he's never the best version of himself in the postseason. And now you bring in Paul George, who has similar issues.
4:21
Now he played a lot of games last year, but I think if you go back and look, he only played on average 50-something games in his time with the Clippers. And so you tell me, are you gonna trust this team?
4:30
I, I don't know that you can. Certainly they have a higher ceiling now. I, I agree with the numbers being moved in the manner they were, but certainly the value's gone now. So I didn't play anything.
4:41
I mean, there were some interesting moves. I do like Oklahoma City a lot. I would've liked them anyway, but I mean, I think the market's correct there, too.
4:48
So, you know, I hate to be boring, but I don't know that this free agency period compelled me to do much of anything yet. All right.
4:53
Well, let me ask this a different way, specifically on the top of the Eastern Conference. If Boston is your number one- Oh, yeah...
4:59
in your opinion, what follows in what order between Milwaukee, the Sixers, and of course, the Knicks, who now are mimicking Villanova of glory years past? Right.
5:11
Uh, it's the strangest thing for somebody where I am, where you rooted forever for Villanova, obviously, and now they're all playing.
5:16
They have a banner in your gym, and now they're all playing for the team that you grew up loving to hate.
5:20
It's a weird thing going on in the Northeast, Gil, but you would know a little something about that from DC, but- Yep... you know, bottom line is, I, I think the Philly-New York thing is fascinating.
5:28
I'd love to get a head-to-head market there. I don't know if anybody will actually take a bet on it, but because we know Boston should win the Atlantic, but which do you trust most, New York or Philly?
5:37
I think any power rating, you know, if you look at Darko plus-minus, estimated plus-minus, old-school box plus-minus, whatever metric you wanna use, they're all gonna tell you if you estimate your minutes properly that Philadelphia's the better basketball team.
5:49
But what you can't quantify is the fit, the culture that New York now has. We don't know about the fit. You think it'd be good. Paul George isn't a ball hog by any stretch.
5:57
You'd think it'd be all right in Philly, but you don't know. And also the injury factor. Now you might argue Thibodeau's gonna play these guys into the ground. Maybe they get injured too.
6:05
Eh, that's lesser of a risk to me. than Philadelphia. And so I think the New York-Philadelphia thing is fascinating. New York's gonna play every game like the last.
6:14
Philly's probably gonna miss its best two players for long stretches. I would be interested in that market. But in terms of ceiling, to answer your question, Boston by a long shot still, and I was on that last year.
6:25
Philly close, New York and Milwaukee four. I'm still wondering if Dame Lillard's thinking about making a move, but I guess not. We would've heard by now.
6:34
Is there anything else that could happen in free agency that would move the needle for you? Is there anything you anticipate that m- means anything? You know what, Gil? I don't think so.
6:42
I've been trying to get to the bottom of that myself on my show.
6:45
I've had many a guest from NBA radio and beyond that would have a pretty good inclination, reporters, and nobody seems to think there's gonna be a big move on the horizon. That's why I mentioned Dame.
6:53
He couldn't wait to tell us how bored stiff he was all last year. He had some personal issues with missing his children. I thought maybe he'd have a little something out of Milwaukee.
7:01
All quiet on that front, and it's debatable how much a needle mover he really is at this point. So, you know, seeing where we are now, I don't know.
7:09
It's not gonna be one of those off-seasons where you get an awful lot of fireworks from the NBA, but we did sort of see this coming. Is there a team-- Let's, let's do it this way.
7:18
I'm l- I'm looking for a, for a betting nugget of some kind. We all know the, the NBA is- Me too... is historically top-heavy, so it's always tough. But- Yeah... is there a team- Yeah... either East or West?
7:27
I, I, I'm guessing it's gotta be West, 'cause East is tough.
7:31
But is there a team East or West where you're like, "Okay, this is a team that most people don't have necessarily on their radar as a team that could get to, say, a conference final"? Let's do it that way.
7:42
But you think they actually, if things broke their way, might have a shot. I'll give you Memphis. What's their number? I'd have to look that.
7:52
The reason I give you Memphis should be fairly obvious, but I think people have forgotten who Ja-- And I know he's not somebody who people wanna wave pom-poms for at the moment for a number of reasons, but Ja Morant can still play.
8:03
I mean, this kid is as bouncy as anybody. He's a tremendous finisher. He should become a little bit more efficient in theory as his career progresses.
8:10
Plus, I love Desmond Bane's ability to shoot the basketball, and Jaren Jackson Jr. I like an awful lot for Memphis. And so, you know, it's an interesting pick with Edy.
8:18
Obviously, in the pick and roll situation, he might be eaten alive sometimes defensively, but I didn't have a big issue with him going nine, believe it or not. I know that caught some people off guard.
8:27
I think Memphis has kind of been lost in the shuffle. Everybody loves Minnesota, Oklahoma City. I love OKC myself. You know, we're gonna talk about the Currys, even though they're no longer even all that relevant.
8:35
We're gonna talk about the Lakers. I mean, you know what we're gonna do. Uh, but don't lose sight of Memphis. New Orleans made a m- nice deal with Dejounte Murray. Let me get a look at some of these Memphis numbers.
8:45
I think they're gonna have an excellent season. I like-- I'm like, "The Currys? Oh, the Currys." [laughs] I see, I, I see what you're talking about.
8:51
Yeah, 40 to one on Memphis to win it all right now, and 15 to win the Western Conference. Oh, that's not good enough. Not the 15. Yeah, the Currys being the Golden State Warriors. That's all they have left now, Steph.
9:01
That's a pretty darn good piece. Yeah. One of the greatest of all time, but they're done. Yeah. Well, I mean, and it was officially done when Klay left. Like, that is poor out of 40 time. Yeah. Let me, uh... Okay. Yeah.
9:11
So in our final two minutes here, obviously, uh, Victor Wembanyama looms, um, as w- I mean, he should've won Defensive Player of the Year in my opinion last year, I think in a lot of people's opinions.
9:22
He may win 10 of them. Um, is there- Yeah... a number you wouldn't bet on him for that market, and then would you take a flyer on him for actual MVP? Yeah.
9:33
Right now, if you could get north of 35 to one, I think everything is closer to between 25 and 30 last I checked. I think Wembanyama would be worth a shot.
9:43
And listen, I was one of these guys last year that was like, "Pump the brakes a little bit," and then the second half of the season occurred, and the dude was just next level.
9:49
So if they surround him properly, and I guess Chris Paul, this version is, uh, you know, a, a good upgrade to an extent just because of his veteran leadership. We shall see.
9:58
Uh, but yeah, I do think the Wemby market's interesting. And no, to answer your question [chuckles], it's probably not a market I wouldn't bet.
10:03
Defensive Player of the Year should be his, because I think there's been so much scuttlebutt now, and you're talking about human beings who vote for this sort of thing that are, you know, asked a million times, "Why they didn't vote for Victor Wembanyama?"
10:14
I could definitely see him winning that market. By the way, you mentioned Klay Thompson. You know, Klay Thompson going to Dallas, I'd be careful. I've had some people, "Well, Dallas is a..."
10:23
Is Dallas any better with this version of Klay Thompson, Gil? Nobody's seen him more than you. I, I don't think so. I, I don't know. I don't know. I'd love to see him have one last flourish of greatness. Sure.
10:33
I mean, he, he had flashes, right, in his last year, too. Like, there were moments. But yeah, he's a diminished- Yeah... version, for sure. Um- Yeah. Let me close with this, Tom.
10:42
The team that you hear bettors on a perennial basis, and maybe g- even heading into next year they'll do the same.
10:48
The team that you hear, uh, a consensus, uh, amount of bettors just love on a year-to-year basis that you just absolutely are, are driven crazy by. What is that team, and what might b- be that team coming to this year?
11:04
Hmm, that's a good question. Um, I guess to an extent, you know, uh, love relative, I guess the term there, but I know people... The Clippers, right? Because of Kawhi, because of Paul George.
11:16
You know, Russell Westbrook's a name. I, I know everybody who really paid attention had their concerns about availability, number one. But, you know, you heard a lot about them come to mind.
11:26
But ultimately, I guess it'd be Phoenix because Kevin Durant and Devin Booker and Bradley Beal, I never bought into them at all last year. The under and everything else was in play with them all year.
11:36
And to be honest, I'd have to see what the numbers are. I'd like to go back to that well, but I think the market may have caught up. Tom, appreciate it. Great talking to you. Thanks for making the time. Thank you, Gil.
11:45
Tom Byrne, everybody, from Mad Dog. We'll come back, John Deere Classic on the other side right here on The Numbers Game. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game right here.
12:02
At bar counter, the D. Gil Alexander and Kelly Biblin. We get tweets at Betting The Book. Always appreciate the feedback.
12:09
SoCal Fantasy, "Okay, Gil, we know you personally, uh"- Do you know that I lean a certain way, SoCal Fantasy? I love how people assume they know what your, uh, what your politics are.
12:19
Uh, but I'm surprised there wasn't more- [laughs]... discussion about the swing in the election market after the debate. Huge moves with Newsom, Harris. Figured it was worth a segment at least.
12:26
Well, what's interesting beyond that, SoCal Fantasy, is that this morning there are reports that the President has, uh, told a close ally that he is considering whether or not to pull out
12:39
of the upcoming presidential race. So yes, um, this is something, elections again, that we talk about apolitically on this show, and we have for different election cycles.
12:49
We did so in 2020, we did so in 20, um, 16 on the podcast side before that. But certainly we did a lot in 2020. Um, and it was fascinating. It could not have been more fascinating.
13:00
We will absolutely be talking about it, and right now we are in a flux situation.
13:04
So I know Jason Weingarten, who's coming up with the past post of them all when he said that he had, what, Newsom at 125 to 1 or something? Gavin Newsom. Yeah, that's what you br- brought up last week. Yeah.
13:14
So the question becomes if, if the President does do that, which we don't know that he will or not at this point, but if he does, who then becomes... You know, then you go to a convention.
13:25
That's gonna be a, an unbelievable bit of American historical political drama. And, 'cause I'm a, I'm a big election junkie too. Yeah.
13:33
A big political junkie, which is, you know, you'll have this contested situation where you'll have a Kamala Harris group, you'll have a Gavin Newsom group, maybe somebody else.
13:43
Um, someone will try to stump for Michelle Obama. It will be fascinating to see how that plays out. And, you know, that becomes then a completely different animal than what we saw this past Thursday night.
13:56
I mean, wouldn't it have been, wouldn't that have been fascinating, though, like a year ago? I mean, aren't we just running out of time here? Uh, let's put it this way. We were certainly running out of time.
14:06
It might be early enough- Yeah... if a decision is pending. We don't know that it is, but that's the report this morning. Um, this is from, uh, let's see. Jeremiah Westgate says, "LOL, it never ends.
14:19
When I was a kid, my friends would sing Jeremiah Was a Bullfrog. I hated it. My name sucks. It was a hand-me-down from the gramps." So it is his real name. I have no problem with your name, Jeremiah Westgate.
14:28
That's an awesome name. Yeah, I thought- It was so awesome, that's why I said if that is your real name.
14:31
Yeah, I thought if anything Gil was implying earlier, maybe you should ch- change it to Jeremiah Circa or something like that. Oh, I see what you did there. [laughs] I didn't even think about that.
14:40
[laughs] That's actually what I thought you were talking about earlier.
14:44
[laughs] Banshees of Atlantic City, "Nothing like the feeling of paying $200 a year for the MLB package only to find on a weekly basis that you cannot watch the game you want because it's being exclusively aired by the Cooking Channel or Lifetime.
14:57
Solid marketing strategy." Dude, may I call you dude? We are in Las Vegas. There are about five, six different teams blacked out here. Yeah, you- It is unbelievable. We got six local teams. You didn't know that? I Roku.
15:09
You tell me why this is. Well, Marty's back. Oh, fly- fly's back. Marty's back. Marty McFly's back. Um, [laughs] we are, we are like children.
15:16
Um, I have at my place, I've said this before, I can watch every Giants and A's game. Why is that? Is it because I put in my, my address? That, no, it's because of, uh, it's because of how you watch.
15:29
'Cause you're on, like, Roku or something, right? Right. Rok- but why am I watching the Bay Area? I, I don't, I don't know. JVT does this, it's the same thing for him.
15:38
I don't know what he ha- I think he watches through YouTube TV, so what- That's what it is. I watch through YouTube TV...
15:43
so, so whatever reason, he can't get the Clippers game, so he has to pay extra for this Clippers exclusive [laughs] package to watch.
15:50
Yeah, if I wanna watch the Giants or the A's, which works out for me 'cause I love the Giants, or any team that is playing the Giants or A's, which sometimes happens with these month-long bets, then I can stay at home.
15:59
But if I wanna watch anything else, like I've watched the Guardians and the Astros runs, I, I just roll up to the, to the sportsbook, 'cause otherwise I can't watch it at home.
16:06
Um, Bobby Gettys, "I tried to join your Royals bet after missing the last few months. In Massachusetts it's only at Caesars, but I originally created my Caesars account in Tennessee and now the app shut me out.
16:16
Might have to pay a proxy $50 in August to place a bet [laughs] just to feel included." We're doing proxies for, uh, the season-long monthlies now. Uh, excuse me, for monthlies rather in, uh, in Major League Baseball.
16:26
All right, John Deere Classic. This is in the, uh, Quad Cities region of Illinois. Kelly's got some thoughts, as he does always, because he is the co-host, I don't know if you know this, of a podcast called Long Shots.
16:37
It's called Long Shots with Matt Brown and Wes Reynolds. What you got? Yeah, it's called Long Shots.
16:40
Hopefully, uh, hopefully Matt Brown gave his, uh, his opinions yesterday on Chart Money and you listened to that, 'cause he was filling in there, and we had the, [laughs] we had, we had the rare schedule debacle yesterday where we're like, "When are, when are we gonna do this podcast?"
16:52
Where it's, you know, me in the morning, [laughs] Matt in the afternoon, Wes at night, hosts doing shows. When did you do it? Uh, so we, we did, it was just me and Wes who did it yesterday afternoon. Oh.
17:01
So that's what I'm saying. Hopefully Matt can- Is there a way, by the way, is there a way to bet on which Long Shots host begged out? 'Cause I would... What's Matt, what, minus 400 on those?
17:09
[laughs] That's like, there's not a price I wouldn't bet. I don't wanna throw him under the bus, but yeah, that's probably a good number. [laughs] Yeah. Matt's like, "I'll sit this one out." Actually, it's okay.
17:17
I think, uh, I think for our, all of our scheduling purposes it was better that than w- us trying to rush it at, like, 6:00 last night. Yeah. So before Wes had to get to his other show. True dat. So, um, okay.
17:27
John Deere Classic. Uh, like you said, Quad Cities. This is a great tour- This is a great tournament every year from the fan turnout, the players always talk about how much they love this course.
17:36
The only problem is you're back to a birdie fest. So if you, if you're, if you don't like that type of golf, you get another event this week that is, it is going to be loaded.
17:44
There's kind of too many of them now, aren't there? I, I guess, Gil, yes. It ju- this used to be an exception, now it feels like the rule.
17:49
I'm not the guy, I, I think I've made this clear, where I'm, I'm not the guy who gets angry a- a- about birdie fests, but there are too many. Yes. It, it is, it is.
17:58
I like, I like some diversity with the courses, with the setups. But the PGA- The occasional was fine, but this feels like it's all the time now.
18:06
So the problem is, though, there's, I mean, this ra- Like, the, the PGA Tour has often dealt with this problem where, and I always go back to the Honda Classic 'cause I covered it for so many years.
18:14
The Honda Cl- the Honda Classic PGA National is such a perfect example
18:18
60% of the PGA Tour lives within 15 minutes of driving to PGA National, but the course is too tough that those guys never wanted to show up for the Honda Classic to have to put in extra work to prepare for it and possibly get embarrassed by the course, that it wasn't, just wasn't worth it.
18:35
They'd just take the week off. So, like, I'd watch Honda Classic struggle every year to try to get some of these big names like, "Hey, can you drive 10 minutes, you know, and come play this tournament?"
18:45
And they just wouldn't. So the birdie fest kind of, they attract everybody except for Jon Rahm, who, you know, [laughs] hated playing, hated playing in them. But that's where you kind of get everybody.
18:54
Now, you don't have the greatest field this week because you have the Open, the Open coming up, uh, and everybody's preparing to go over to, uh, uh, Scotland next week, uh, and play over there.
19:03
So field is a little weak t- uh, w- uh, weak this, this week. Sungjae Im is your short shot right now at DraftKings, 14 to 1. Sepp Straka, 16 to 1. Aaron Rai, 20 to 1. Jordan Spieth, 22 to 1.
19:14
Everybody else, 22 to 1 or longer. Um, as far as what you're looking at, uh, course, if you're doing handicapping at home, this is a, uh, accuracy off the tee is gonna be important this week.
19:25
You do have some wider fairways, but not g- not a lot of room for guys to bomb it. One of the few s- course defenses here is some really heavy rough that these guys will have to play out of.
19:34
Um, and around the green is difficult. I- i- there's gonna have to be some tough chips, some tough out of the sand plays made this week. But I always bring this up whenever, whenever we talk about birdie fest, Gil.
19:45
If you're, if you've got a guy who's playing a lot of, a lot from around the green and not on the green, you're probably not winning much. No. So it's not something I think you need to factor in a little bit this week.
19:54
I just wouldn't go heavy with it. Uh, one unique kind of, uh, setup of this course is you're gonna see... I- it's a par 71, so there's three par fives, a lot of par fours out there.
20:04
It- it's a lot of wedges, which does make this a little bit different. At least you're seeing different types of irons, uh, that are gonna get played a lot this week.
20:11
So you're literally looking, if you're looking at proximity ranges, 75 to 150 yards is where you're gonna wanna key in on, uh, 'cause that's where a lot of these shots, approach shots are gonna be for these guys.
20:21
Um, as far as what I did with my card this week, we talk about this often. If it is a, uh, i- if I'm expecting low scores out there, I dial back.
20:30
I dial back when I'm betting, but especially in my finishing position in match-ups. Uh, match-ups, they all become a little bit tougher when...
20:37
I mean, if you watched last Sunday, how many guys sw- swung, you know, 10 spots on the leaderboard, um, just in those final few holes? That's what you can get. So you wanna take some of the variance out of there.
20:48
I don't play too much of them. So four outright bets for me this week, and then a couple top 20s. I, I did go with Sungjae Im l- uh, the short shot on the board. I...
20:57
You could easily make cases, and I've been betting them frequently. Sepp Straka, Aaron Rai, I could sit here and talk about, uh, and make really solid cases for.
21:04
But where the, their numbers are at right now at 16 to 1 and 20 to 1 are as short as you're ever gonna see for those two guys.
21:11
So I, I really struggled on where to start my card, Gil, and it was Sungjae's struggled th- this season, but he's gotten b- he's been playing better here recently.
21:21
If you take away the majors where he's missed the cut in [laughs] all of them, his past tournaments, T3 at the Travelers, T8 Memorial, T9 Charles Schwab, T4 Wells Fargo. Start... He hasn't won in South Korea this year.
21:30
He's starting to play better golf here recently.
21:33
And all I did was I was looking at the top of the board, and I'm like, "I can't get past the best player in the field is priced the same basically as Sepp Straka," where we've seen such massive differences in pricing with those guys.
21:45
So played an outright on Sungjae. I also played him in the top South Korea, uh, South, top South Korean market. Always, it, it, just a little tip, shop around if you're ever looking at those things.
21:56
I pl- I laid minus 135. I saw as high as m- How's, how's he only minus 135 in this? I saw, I saw him as high as minus 180 places. So it's always... That's a, that's a bet for me.
22:05
Um, th- there's, there's not a lot of competition for him [laughs] in this market this week. Uh, okay, I'm running out of time here. Let me hurry up.
22:11
D- uh, favorite players this week, Davis Thompson and Patton Kizzire, who I know Wes and I both landed on. Uh, Davis Thompson gonna have to score first and birdie or better last 12 rounds.
22:20
Solid off tee, 15th on approach. Got great recent v- uh, uh, finishes here recently. Really like him. Patton Kizzire you will find in the triple digits on the outright. I played a top 20 on him at plus 350.
22:31
T16 here last, uh, 2022, T11 in 2021. Really pl- playing really well here recently. Like him, and I'm taking a shot on Daniel Berger again. Let's go. Daniel Berger rounding into form. Leaflet. We'll come back.
22:44
Jason Weingart will join us on camera next. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Do not sleep on our website, vsin.com.
22:58
Best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles, odds by state, betting tools, betting guides. Kelly even, uh, finding all the stats, the baseball stats today. Nice deep dive that you, you found on there. That's right.
23:10
Want to tell the people how, uh- Just go to vsin.com, find some first five betting statistics and- [laughs] That's right. First five, umps, it's all there... umps, teams. Yeah, man.
23:18
Uh, also on the front page of vsin.com, Brent Musburger, Super Bowl LIX. Good God, we're up to 59. Super Bowl LIX prediction from Brent Musburger. How about that?
23:29
At vsin.com, Adam Burke on NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds, history, and predictions. Uh, Wimbledon from Zach Cohen. Michael Dolan on the WNBA. It's all there, that and more.
23:39
Plus, they're still playing soccer, Kelly. Still playing soccer. Nigel Seeley with his, uh, Euro 2024 soccer best bets. The quarter's on the way. It's all at vsin.com.
23:49
Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin, uh, I just want to, uh, start out the segment by saying once again, I have inadvertently lied to you, the loyal viewer. I am so sorry.
23:58
I thought that Jason Weingart would be on camera today, but apparently there was a password mishap, and Jason still comes to us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line audio style. What happened, Jason?
24:09
Uh, Kelly, Kelly got the password situation fixed. Now I just have to get the, uh, the charger situation, uh, charging. [laughs] So, uh, Friday- Oh, man...
24:18
I promise video Um, we're just gonna get the laptop charged, and everything will be back to normal. Okay. Yeah. We'll miss your face. I would never have guessed the password, though, without Kelly.
24:29
[laughs] So thank you, Kelly. Oh, please share with everyone, Jason. Totally would not. [laughs] There was a little, like, password hint that I didn't read at first, which d- Uh...
24:37
j- you know how, like, it'll give you the hint, like, of what the password is? Jason sent me the screenshot. I didn't look at it first. I'm like, I have no idea who set this computer up.
24:45
There's no way I'm gonna know this. But then I saw the hint, and I'm like, oh, this is, like, the old, the old vsen password that, like, five years ago we used for everything. Yeah.
24:54
Like, if you knew this one password- Oh... you could get in anywhere. You could crack the code. Yeah. Oh, yeah. [laughs] I just wanna say this. In, in conclusion, uh, Jason said, "I, I forgot my password.
25:03
Could you ask Bill? Bill 80." So I text Bill. Bill's like, "I don't know. Ask Kelly." So I ask Kelly. Kelly's like, "I don't know. Ask Bill." This is, was all day yesterday. [laughs] Over Jason's password.
25:13
And then I- Yeah... and then I t- I texted Kelly, and I was like, "Why, why, why would Kelly know? Why, who, who, why are you telling me to ask Kelly?"
25:19
[laughs] It's like I just felt like they were sending me in a circle. Like, you know, you ask this guy. No, ask this guy. No. But thank you, Kelly. It all worked out. Yeah, no problem. So we're here.
25:28
[laughs] Jason, let me just ask you this. So, uh, we- we're obviously just 10 days away from the All-Star break now, 10, 10 such days. We don't have any day baseball today, which sucks.
25:37
Uh, but July 4th, of course, tomorrow, full day baseball. Give us your best award bet that anyone could make in any market right now. Anyone right now. Let's see. Well, it's not gonna be the MVP.
25:52
Uh, Aaron Judge has, uh, really just pulled ahead there. I'm, I'm kind of a little surprised. I'm not surprised, but I think, think I'm done fighting Aaron Judge. He's just, you know, he's, he's that good.
26:03
He's- Are, are we done fighting- Yeah... both Judge and Ohtani? Like, are MVPs just done, the, both markets? I don't know what compelling argument you're gonna make for somebody besides Ohtani.
26:14
Like, I'm open to, to the arguments, but it's, it's not really, you know... Like, I, I don't see it. Um, I think Skeens is still vulnerable. I think Jackson Merrill is, is the guy.
26:27
You know, he's still getting almost four to one there. Um, and then Wyatt Langford, all of a sudden, uh, Luis Gil has taken the dive that we thought he would.
26:37
Um, and all of a sudden, Wyatt Langford, he was, like, 85 to one, 60 to one, crazy numbers. He's back down to 260. Mason Miller, he's sort of becoming an also ran. Um, he gave up some runs last night to the Angels.
26:51
You don't win Rookie of the Year giving up runs to the Angels. So, um, Langford and Merrill, I, I think those guys are gonna make, make a push here.
27:00
I think Jackson Merrill, honestly, he should be the starting center fielder for the NL All-Star team. I, we just made a Numbers Game history. I think that was my first on-air sneeze ever in the history of this show.
27:09
[laughs] I was gonna, I was gonna bring it up after, Jason. Yeah. Point that, point that out as well. You, you are human. I am a human. Just confirming that.
27:14
Kelly, Kelly does not believe I am a human, uh, certain other subjects. Uh, okay. So, okay, that's interesting. Any pl- any plays today? What have you made? Yeah. Um, one or two. Let's see. I got the, uh, the Twins.
27:29
Twins again. I mentioned them, uh, I think it was a time or two again on, uh, last time I was on the show. I've been betting them a lot recently. I laid 164 against the Tigers today. It's one of those games, uh, I see K.
27:41
Monteiro is pitching, and I have to, like, look up. I'm like, who's K. Monteiro, right? [laughs] We've reached that time. Yeah. Yeah.
27:48
We've reached that time, and it's getting earlier and earlier every year, where teams start throwing out some pitchers, and I'm like, huh, I really gotta dig deep and, uh, figure out why I don't know who that guy is.
27:59
Um, then I got the Phillies minus 110 versus Imanaga and the Cubs later tonight. Uh, that's another game I'm gonna look for a first inning price there with a seven and a half total and Imanaga pitching.
28:10
I'm hopefully gonna actually find a good price there. Um, but, but you're gonna have to wait later in the day. Probably, you know, plus 120 or something would be playable.
28:19
Uh, Steve Fezzik texted me these yesterday, and I will, I will say what he bet, and you tell me if you like these or not, um, as we do a little guest-on-guest perhaps crime here. Let's see what happens.
28:32
Uh, Fezzik texted that he likes, ready for this, the under Oakland A's in season here, under 59 wins, and he likes Houston plus 170 to win the division, to win the AL West. Do you like both of those?
28:48
He, uh, he liked the A's last year. Yes, he did. So I'm assuming he probably has, he has the same sort of, you know, same reasoning behind them fading later on in the season and probably trading good players and...
29:02
So yeah, uh, 59, it's, it's probably one of those things where you don't have a ton of margin. They're gonna win, like, what, like 55, 56, something like that. Like, it's gonna be close. But, um, it's aggressive.
29:15
I don't, I don't hate it. And the other one's the Astros to win the division, you said? Yeah, yeah. Uh, three back, I think right now. Yeah. Yeah. Sounds right. I mean, I'm not, I'm not buying the Mariners. So, um,
29:26
kind of reminds me that the, you know, the, the Rangers won the World Series last year. Can you recall a year where the previous year's World Series, uh, champion and runner-up, kind of just like an afterthought?
29:37
No one really cares about them. It's- Like, it just- It's so interesting- Like, they won the World Series. No one cares... it's so interesting you bring this up. Obvi- obviously, the Rangers have not played well.
29:44
I think it was Will. Will Hill mentioned this yesterday. Maybe you, maybe you and him were talking about this. But he was saying how, like, no... Like, does anybody remember the Rangers won the World Series?
29:54
It is an interesting thing. Like, it's, it... Baseball is like that, right? If you're not one of the, if you're not a Red Sox or a Yankees or a Dodgers, right? It seems very regional in terms of interest.
30:04
And so when the next year starts, a lot of the country's like, "Wait, who won the World Series last year again?" Uh, let, let me go back to something else you said. You talked about...
30:10
You, you mentioned first innings, that you're looking for a first inning bet later. For many years, you and I talked on this show about, uh, betting first innings. We didn't sort of, we didn't give the secret sauce.
30:19
It was sort of a little cottage industry we had. And then, remember, when legalized sports betting came, or, or sometime thereafter, a year or two, it took some time. But then there became this...
30:29
cottage industry, if you will, to use that term again, of everybody betting, you know, yes run, or excuse me, yeah, yeah, yes. Uh, was it yes that they bet all the time? Yes, they bet yes all the time.
30:40
Um, or no, they bet nos. They were betting nerfies all the time, pardon me, as they called it.
30:46
And it sort of, it has, in the last year or so, correct me if I'm wrong, 'cause I have not participated, but it has turned kind of in their favor, hasn't it? Like, if you look at the breadth of things.
30:57
Have you gotten beaten on these over the last couple years? Uh, I'm losing at them more, you know, more often numbers that I thought would, would be winning numbers are, are not winning, uh, this year.
31:10
The past year more, more so than this year. I have been betting less of them, uh, this season just in general.
31:17
But, uh, I don't think the nos are winning in the sense that, like, if you were to do the, the math on, on what they're hitting at, they're probably still, you know, down or close to even.
31:29
Um, I, I just don't think anybody's winning on it, but- Oh, okay... um. Yeah. You know, I, I, I don't think it's shifting to the no. I just think it's become a more efficient market, unfortunately.
31:39
The pri- yeah, maybe, maybe that's what it is. The pricing is not as juicy as it used to be. So I remember back in the day, if we had, like, a Kershaw, I'd also say Kershaw-Lindsey come game, right?
31:50
Like, pick your two aces. And I remember the yes would be, I mean, we were getting like plus 155 sometimes. Those days are over, huh? No, you can still get big numbers.
32:02
That's the problem, is the big numbers just aren't winning. Just aren't winning. Okay. And it's like you're just, you're just kicking yourself. Like, why am I, why am I doing this? Is it, is it worth the time?
32:10
Is it worth the aggravation? Um, I could find other ways to aggravate myself. Well, that's the interesting thing about quick bets, right? Like, we say that about, you know, if...
32:19
I- I'm trying to think of what was the example of. Oh, like college basketball in-game bets with totals. When they're going- Plus to 10, plus 15.
32:28
Well, I'm just talking about, like, the in-games, 'cause we're betting the in-games, like, so many bets a night, and when you're winning, it's like, wow, this is the greatest thing in the world, but when you lose, there's this extra se- there's this extra thing that you have in your head, which is like, "This is a really stupid way to lose money," right?
32:43
Like, it's- [laughs] Yeah, that's, that's- And so you get that, you have that with the first innings, too, right?
32:49
Yeah, it comes up a lot in gambling when after you lose, you go, "Wow, that was a really stupid way to, to blow that actual money I just, just blew." Um, yeah, that's, that comes up a lot.
32:58
It's reserved for certain bets, though, I think. Like, certain bets just happen in a way where you're particularly mad at yourself for losing it that way, I think.
33:04
Yeah, I mean, I think NBA live betting, sometimes it works that way, where you're like, "Oh, great, I can get nine and a half now with them. Oh, they lost by 27. Great." Yeah. Yeah.
33:12
It, it has to do also with the quickness of the bet, too, where you're like, "Well, that was so dumb. Why did I do it?" Jason, always interesting. Uh, camera next time. Let's go. Camera, claw machine update Friday.
33:22
We will. Cl- claw machine- I need a claw machine update, yeah... claw machine update. Can we get that as well? Done and done. Thank you for the password, Kelly. [laughs] Could- couldn't have done it without you.
33:29
[laughs] Jason was this close to sharing the password on air. Thank you, Jason, appreciate it. Uh, we'll come back, and we will talk more NFL. Fewest wins on the other side.
33:39
It's The Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Make this NFL season your best ever with our all new VSiN NFL betting guide.
33:57
The guide is packed with everything you need to bet the NFL smarter, including in-depth previews of all 32 teams with win total projections for every team, new quarterback and head coach breakdown, Super Bowl predictions, a prop betting guide, plus best futures bets from the VSiN experts.
34:09
That includes MVP, Rookie of the Year, and Coach of the Year awards. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just getting started, our NFL betting guide is your ticket to smarter, more informed bets.
34:17
Visit vsin.com/guide to get your copy of our all new NFL betting guide today. That's V S I N.com slash guide. Should I read, should I Ron Burgundy through some tweets? I'm so unprepared for tweets today. [laughs] Sorry.
34:31
My favorite part is that you ask that every time. Um- Should I do this? That's right. You just do it anyway. [laughs] And I just do it anyway. It's like if Kelly said no, like I wouldn't. Right, yeah.
34:39
[laughs] Uh, JoeC714. Hey, JoeC714. How you doing, man? "Big fan of, uh, the show, Gil. Love all your takes. Had a," oh, thank you, "had a question for you as I'm a collector as well.
34:49
What's the one Carlos Alcaraz card to have in the collection?" Oh, we should ask Jason that. He's actually asking Jason that. Okay, I'll ask Jason. We'll get back to you on that.
34:58
A collector of tennis cards wants to know what the quintessential Carlos Alcaraz card. I'll ask him that, 'cause then I'll ask him, what's the quintessential ego card to have? There you go.
35:08
And then, like with my Barry Bonds rookies that I have as a- You got one, though, right? You got an ego one. I have an ego one, but I don't know if it's, like, a rookie. From Doug Wedge, right? Doug Wedge got me an ego.
35:16
I got my Colin Moore Cow one from Doug Wedge. Shout out Doug Wedge. The thing about it is, though, right, like, you know, when I was a kid, [laughs]
35:24
I was gonna be rich by now from all my rookie Barry Bonds and Ken Griffleys, right? Yeah. That didn't work out. Yeah, yeah, yeah. That, that's- Uh... the same thing.
35:31
I know me and you were talking about it, it was, like, a month ago. No, it was way more than that. It was, like, six months ago. This big, I get a knock at my door.
35:38
You know, y- no, there's never a delivery guy there anymore, right? They just leave it at your door. Yeah. I look outside. There's this big box just sitting out there. I'm like, "What the hell is this?"
35:46
And I see it's, uh, it's, it's from my mom, and I'm like, "Okay, this is kind of weird for my mom to send me a package and not tell me what it is." Open it up, it's just binders upon binders of old cards.
35:57
And then, like- Oh... and then that, m- remember I showed you these, like, a few months ago? Yes. And then, and then it distracted me for, like, a month straight. Oh. 'Cause I'd be like, "Okay, done with work.
36:04
Like, let me go sit on the couch and go through all of these," and it was like the best ones I thought I found that, like, I'm like, "Oh my God, I got a Shaquille O'Neal rookie card. This has gotta be worth $54."
36:15
But like- Bro... that sounds like a lot of effort to try to sell. So funny you bring this up. So, so-... Deborah Song, fashion stylist, she's moving from Toronto to San Francisco.
36:23
So she says, "Oh, my dad has a bunch of baseball cards for you." His d- her dad used to own a baseball card shop, or a shop that had baseball cards in it. Oh, that's awesome. From years and y- this is what you dream of.
36:33
You're like, "Oh my God, this is gonna be unbelievable." He, he had 1991 Upper Deck complete sets or whatever. Ugh. Not '89, were- was, was Griffey '89? I believe it was. Maybe. I forget, yeah. So, so '91.
36:44
By the way, there's still too many Griffeys, too. But the '91, and I'm like going through it, I'm like, wait, he has r- like this is from one to 700. Like, all the good cards are between 700 and 800.
36:53
[laughs] So apparently he pulled all the goods. [laughs] Oh, that's great. And then like his hockey cards. It's like an, it's just nonsense. Nothing's good in there. [laughs] It was just complete boondoggle.
37:01
Talk about like jobs you would never wanna tell your parents when you were younger, but like when you were like nine years old, were you not like, "I can't wait to own a baseball c- card shop one day"?
37:09
Oh, dude, was there anything more fun than going to a baseball card shop? No, not at all. I could spend hours there, hours. Hours. So great.
37:16
3jack313, uh, 3jackh3131, "Kelly is now the third person I've heard talk about Patton Dezire this week. What could go wrong?" as you say. Let's go, Patton. I grab- Definitely didn't grow up on a country club.
37:26
I g- [laughs] yeah, totally. He, he knows a few, very few of my people. [laughs] Uh, I grabbed 165 to one on Tuesday for a few bucks. All right, Patton Dezire, let's go. Yo, better number than I did. Whoa.
37:37
Uh, numbersguys, "Must watch interviews, Drew Dincic, Crackman, and Jason Weingarten. It's good to be able to see the latter on screen. Gil, can we still bet July MLB wins in Vegas at Circa?" I don't think so. No.
37:49
I will check. That is down. Yeah. That is down. I did just check on that. And Kelly, here's a question. Uh, "Where to go for advice on building a golf model. Hang, uh, uh, hanging up, I'll listen."
37:58
Yeah, there's a lot of great sites out there, um, that have popped up over, over the past few years here. I, I, I kind of use a l- all of them to, to a degree.
38:07
[laughs] I think all of them offer something a little bit different. But, uh, Fantasy National, uh, that Pat Mayo does is, i- is, uh, top-notch.
38:15
Rick Gamen, who's on this show from time to time when he's not too busy for us these days. B- big shot. [laughs] Big shot CBS guy. We love you, Rick. Uh, he's, I love Rick.
38:24
He, no, but he's getting a lot of work on CBS these days. Good for him. He's like he can't make time for us. But he, rickrungood.com is his website where, uh, where he has some stuff that you can utilize there.
38:32
It's great. Data Golf's a good website. BetSports, uh, BetSports I know is one as Matt, Matt Brown's been using more recently. I, I even dove into their, uh, modeling stuff. I know he really likes, uh, likes it.
38:44
So a lot of different ones that I, that I'll... I, I, I like to run the same things in kind of the different sites, 'cause they all have a slightly unique different things, Gil, so you get different results.
38:54
So it's one of those I like to see what kind of matches across the board. And you guys kind of aggregate the models and yeah. You, right, exactly, yeah.
39:00
And then finally from, uh, NHBetter, "After the Fezzik bets were mentioned, what book is offering in-season MLB win totals right now?"
39:06
Right at the moment I don't know, but, uh, Caesars is good about putting them up a lot in, um, adjusted season win totals in baseball. Yeah, if not every day, you can usually find that stuff. Yeah. Yeah, ev- every.
39:16
They're pretty frequent. Yeah. Yeah. Pretty frequent. Uh, NFL fewest wins. Fewest wins this coming NFL season. Patriots. Yeah.
39:24
I- [laughs] We, we talked about it earlier when I was talking about the season win total under on the Patriots. They are the short shot, and quite frankly, they are the justified short shot at plus 340. The question is,
39:36
if let's say there's somebody out there who's like, "You know what? I actually disagree. I think the Patriots are going to be better than you guys think, and I don't think they're gonna have the fewest wins."
39:45
If I forced you to make a bet that was not the Patriots, what bet would you make? I already know mine. Okay. I'm glad we got into the Patriots conversation earlier, because this- 'Cause that would be my pick...
39:56
I didn't wanna jump a- jump ahead to this, because- Yeah... I think this is the market to bet 'em in. Like you're talking about, you brought up the point of well- Oh, yeah, might as well take the plus 340...
40:04
preferring to bet 'em O in 17 than the over, which I agree with. I'd bet 'em in both. But this, I, I mean, I would m- I would way quicker, uh, be way, way quicker to bet this than the over.
40:14
I don't know that I'd be way quicker, because I think that, I think that four and a half is so high that I'd, I'd like to live through that, too. But I get your point. I don't, n- but I don't know, Gil.
40:23
Like, I mean, they're, I, I'm not one of them, but you hear from, you hear, you hear from certain people that the Panthers, they expect to be better, uh, next year.
40:30
Broncos, I don't, I mean, I don't think you or you or I are, is very high on that team, but I don't think, I, I also have a- I think they're, yeah... I struggle to see them to [laughs] being as bad as the Patriots.
40:40
I agree. I actually looked at the Broncos' schedule and I'm like, "Okay, they're gonna stink," but there's actually a few wins on there. I mean, uh, my- Yeah...
40:46
my answer to your question is it's the New York Football Giants. Wow. New York Football Giants, 10 to 1, expected to finish last in the NFC East. Um, New York Football Giants, do we have that schedule up here?
41:01
Let me go through that schedule for you since we don't have it up. But the G- the Giants' schedule is, and again, this is the problem with, you know, this is the problem with having, you know, having to pay Daniel Jones.
41:14
They, they didn't have to, but they did. Mm-hmm. They decided to pay Daniel Jones all that money, which again, is the cruelty of the NFL economic structure. Well, I guess we'll pay him, 'cause what's the alternative? And
41:26
I mean, you end up losing your best player in your secondary because of it, really, in Xavier McKinney. Like, I just think, you look at the schedule like, okay, I mean, there are wins, right?
41:38
I mean, they get the NFC South, which helps, right? They get the NFC South, and you know, some people think, okay, well, I mean, you gotta factor in a split with the Commanders, right?
41:45
Like, we gotta give 'em that if we're projecting. So it is the NFC South, so there are wins. I just wanna go back, and I know, I, I am just gonna let the hate wash over me for what I'm about to say.
41:55
The other one, real quick, I'll just bring up, like the, I could see the Raiders being absolutely terrible this year. [laughs] Can we show that screen? The problem is the AFC West, though. Yeah.
42:04
You have the Chargers and the Broncos. I, I don't know that I think either one of them's gonna be incredibly good. Oh, I think the Chargers are gonna be good this year. Okay.
42:10
Yeah, I think you're selling the Chargers short. But you know, I understand, you have tr- post-traumatic stress disorder from last- That's right. Yeah. Remember, last year was my year to be on them. Yeah. So, yeah.
42:18
Um, but I, I think you're right about the Broncos, uh, being... Okay, let's just say you split the Broncos games. They, yeah, the Raiders could stink. What are the Raiders number for fewest wins?
42:27
Uh, they were like 11 to one on there, I think. Yeah, that's interesting. Can we just, to amuse me, to close the show- Yeah...
42:34
just to amuse me, you find me amusing, can you just throw the Steelers schedule up there one more time? [laughs] I know. I know what you're thinking. You're crazy, 'cause it's Mike Tomlin and the Steelers.
42:46
I just wanna throw that schedule up one more time, 'cause they're 20 to one here. 20 to one. I'm just saying. Um, if you throw up this schedule, how many wins can you really count on?
42:58
All right, let's give them the Broncos, at the Broncos, even though that's elevation, Kelly. I'm just being generous. At the Raiders, sure. Then you do have a Giants and Commanders in the middle there. Okay.
43:09
But, like, tell me where the weeks are that are actual, "Oh, no, they'll definitely win that." I- We're the end of the schedule... I am just telling you
43:20
that there is a world where the Pittsburgh Steelers end up four and 13 this year, and I know that's gonna blow... Like, Mike Tomlin, doesn't happen to him, but I'm just saying, that schedule is brutality.
43:34
And last I checked, it's still Less Ride Mi- Russell Wilson as the starting quarterback. And so- It's gonna be- I don't know, man. Like, 20 to one on the...
43:43
Could the Pa- the problem is the Patriots are so bad that I don't know that this would even get home. They're so bad. That, that's all I keep going back to. Yeah.
43:50
All, every other one of these teams would be interesting [laughs] to me if the Patriots- But, yeah... didn't exist. I still think the Patriots are bad, but I'm just asking the question.
43:57
If you, if you were not allowed to bet the Patriots- Yeah, I think I'd still go Giants... this, I- I understand you. Yeah. Steelers, I understand. At 20 to one, I would actually take them- Okay... for that possibility.
44:06
Patriots one I might shop around and add here. Yep, I think so. Anyway, all these markets available. And we'll talk again. We'll talk, uh, last team to go, to be undefeated. Uh, last team to be winless.
44:17
We'll do all those as the, uh, weeks and months progresses towards the NFL season. We've done all we can do. Gojo and Golick are next on the radio side. Pictures, best bets.
44:27
It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. Enjoy. [upbeat music]
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