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Jul 3, 2026
A Numbers Game | July 3, 2026 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | July 3, 2026 | Hour 1
00:00
45:49
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Transcript
0:00
[crowd cheering] There's nothing like being in the stands cheering on your favorite team. GameTime is your hack to unlocking amazing tickets in just a few taps.
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0:21
Take the guesswork out of buying sports tickets with GameTime. Download the GameTime app and create an account to start searching for tickets to upcoming games and events. [upbeat music] This is VSiN,
0:33
the sports betting network. The numbers told the story, they always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:50
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander in San Francisco.
1:00
Kelly Midlan back at the VSiN Studios at Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. This show rudely interrupting, uh, Kelly and me having a deep dive conversation on the '90s group Smash Mouth- [laughs]...
1:13
prior to, uh, coming on air. That's right, man. How did that come up? I just- How did that come up? I just saw it on, uh, the little news tease- Oh...
1:19
coming up, and, uh, yeah, we were, we, yeah, we went down many different, uh, conversation paths that, with that one. All Star and Walking on the Sun, they're big hits. That's right.
1:30
But, uh, their lead singer, may he rest in peace, I believe. Yeah. I don't think he's part of the group anymore because he is- And then, and then-... no longer with us...
1:34
that song was in Shrek too, which made it, like, huge. Yes. Right? Yeah. Huge. Yeah, yeah. Well, glad we got that covered. [laughs] Glad, glad we got that figured out.
1:43
It is a Friday, uh, but there is no Fezzik Fridays today. If you are a, uh, keen follower of this show, you know how much Steve Fezzik loves fireworks. I'm not making this up.
1:54
He loves fireworks so much that he asked at the beginning of the week, he's like, "Wait a minute. Uh, July 4th, is this Saturday, right?" I go, "Yeah." He goes, "Oh, I don't work July 4th week."
2:04
So no Fezzik Fridays today. Steve is taking the week off, uh, but we will talk about many other, many other things, uh, to replace him. Chris Felica's showing up, talk World Cup.
2:13
He's talking World Cup today, he's talking World Cup tomorrow, he's talking World Cup Sunday, so whole bunch of World Cup with Chris Felica. We'll talk about yesterday as well.
2:22
Paul Carr, once he hears that Chris Felica is on, he's like, "Oh, that's not happening without me." He's on the show as well with his World Cup plays for today as well. Um, Alex Noops Christensen will join us today- Who?
2:34
... uh, to talk both NBA and Wimbledon. Uh, and then Tyler Shoemaker a little later on talking the W with us, WNBA, uh, with Tyler, VSiN's own. We'll do all of that.
2:46
Uh, I wanna start, and w- and I'll, first of all, let me get the tennis play out of the way here real early 'cause I don't want this to start here.
2:53
Yesterday, um, so there's been a couple days at Wimbledon where we've had a lot of picks. Um, yesterday there was a bunch of 'em. We had six picks.
3:01
It was four in two day, hit a plus 103 dog, a plus 150 dog, a plus 155 dog, a plus 200 dog.
3:09
Uh, for the second time during Wimbledon, instead of going five in one because we lost a third set tiebreaker, remember we gakked a third set tiebreaker a couple days ago.
3:17
So yesterday put us back in the black at Wimbledon, or put us in the black for the first time at Wimbledon, made up for the Knicks that we got the first couple days. It was a huge day yesterday.
3:28
Um, so again, when, when you hear people say, "Oh my God, they're terrible," yeah, we, we lost, like, a unit a day. It's not that big of a deal.
3:36
Yesterday made it all back and more, and today what I'm getting at is that some days the numbers say, "Oh look, it's six plays. You should make six plays or four plays or five plays." Today there's only one.
3:48
Uh, it's a very chalky day, and most of those numbers in my opinion are pretty accurate, but the one play that I did land on should begin here this hour at some point.
3:59
Barb- uh, Barbora Krejcikova, who is a Wimbledon champ from a couple years back, uh, she is taking on Nikola Bartunkova. Both are, uh, Czech players. I've got Krejcikova minus three games, so a play on the spread.
4:14
Krejcikova minus three games. That's the lone Wimbledon play today after a big day yesterday. Um, everything so far this morning pretty according to form, not getting any, uh, upsets.
4:30
I guess one upset on the men's side, I shouldn't say that. One upset on the men's side, Joao Fonseca not only loses. By the way, I think Zach had- Wow... Safiullin- Yeah...
4:38
plus a h- one and a half sets yesterday, if I'm not mistaken, as part of his parlay. Safiullin crushes Fonseca in straight six-three, six-three, six-three. So that's the one sort of anomalous, uh, play this morning.
4:52
Uh, Novak Djokovic in action right now. He's up a set and a break against Arthur Rinderknech, and Jannik Sinner on serve in the first set against Jensen Brooksby, Kelly. Jensen Brooksby. Jensen Brooksby, muh.
5:04
[laughs] Yeah. That's right. I w- that, you lead me, uh, nicely into a quick golf update too. At the John Deere Classic we have three guys tied at eight under. Uh, we did have a solo leader at nine under.
5:14
He just gave one back, and I wanted to bring it up, uh, Gil, 'cause it is Zach Johnson that I am talking about that had taken- Oh...
5:21
the lead at the John Deere Classic, the 50-year-old who's tearing it up on the Champions Tour for the most part this season, uh, rolling into Silvis, Illinois, and, uh, playing a hell of a, hell of a first two rounds here.
5:31
So he has a share of the lead right now with Lucas Glover and Zach Blair, uh, but he is the only one of those three that is currently out on the golf course.
5:40
Is that the first time you've ever said the words Zach Blair on this show ever? Oh, man, probably. Probably. Probably. Yeah. I saw Byron Lindicue hit a first round leader bet on him yesterday, and, um, uh, uh- Wow...
5:52
at, at bomb odds. And I'm like, I, I, same thing. I basically tweeted at him like, "How, how did you even get to that conclusion, to that bet," you know? But yeah, he had a top five- That's great...
6:01
and hit it out right, so good on you, Byron. Good on Byron. Yeah, a Numbers Game guest of the past. Uh, okay, so tomorrow is the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest at Coney Island, a tradition unlike any other.
6:16
Wanna shout out Mitch and Paul, who have been covering this event for as long as VSiN has pretty much been in existence, as long as they've been at VSiN. Um, they've had Joey Chestnut on their show multiple times.
6:27
This was never anything that I was, uh, particularly into, Kelly. Mm-hmm. Uh, admittedly, because I never really thought there was, you know, Chestnut was gonna win every year.
6:36
I never thought there was much of an angle in terms of the over-unders, until this year, baby. Yeah. I think we have something. I think we have something. And a big shout-out to J.J.
6:45
Bailey, who did a great deep dive on this over at The New York Times. So, uh, for those who are like, "Uh, what are you talking about right now, man?" Uh, listen, if you can make money on it, you can make money on it.
6:57
We're all about it. And Joey Chestnut, for those who, uh, have been trapped under a heavy object all these years, he won, he's won 17 of these, 17, dating back to, uh, 2007.
7:09
We're not gonna be on air tomorrow, so this is why we wanted to talk about it this morning. Um, his record in 10 minutes' time was back in 2021. By the way, he also has 55 world records.
7:21
Kelly, I'm not sure how you get to 55 different categories to get a world record, but he does have them. Uh, but we- Oh, pull up the list at some point. It's crazy- Please...
7:27
because the foods are, like, you know, it's pierogis, and it's, uh, oysters- Wow... and just j- it's, it's insane. Is this a talent? Do we c- refer to this as a talent?
7:37
I, I th- you and I have had that conversation for years. I will always stand by yes, it is, 'cause I sure as hell could not come close to eating this amount of food. Oh, no. It's, it's insane. No. It's wild.
7:48
You, you could eat more than I could, though, that's for sure. So in 10 minutes, 2021, uh, he, he had a record 76. By the way, the cool kids call 'em HDBs. That's hot dogs and buns. [laughs] HDBs. Uh, 76 of these.
8:03
That's his record in 2021. Now, remember, uh, 2024, he sat out because he had a sponsorship with a, uh, company that it was a no-no sponsorship, so they wouldn't let him compete that year.
8:15
Um, so last y- Yeah, it was like a vegan hot dog company or something, right? Nathan's was like, "Nah." Nope. That's right, can't do it. So last year he comes back, and he wins again, his 17th.
8:26
He downs 70 and a half hot dogs and buns in 10 minutes. So by the way, the, uh, sponsorship deal was with I- Impossible Foods, Kelly- Hmm... if you're scoring at home. There you go. Uh, c- a competitor of Nathan's.
8:39
Okay, so he reclaims his title last year. He gets 70 and a half. He beats the second place guy, the defending champion, who was the champ because Chestnut wasn't there the previous year, Patrick Bertoletti, by 24 HDBs.
8:52
Bertoletti only ate f- [laughs] 46 and a half last year.
8:57
Um, so, and by the way, th- that mark w- not only obliterated, talking about the, uh, the 70 and a half from Chestnut last year, it obliterated what Bertoletti did the year before, which was 58.
9:09
And Chestnut, after he set the record in 2021 with 76 of these, in 2022, he went down to 63. In 2023, he went down to 62 hot dogs and buns in 10 minutes' time. So he bounced back up last year with a 70 and a half.
9:25
So where does this get us to, uh, betting-wise? His total is, was, started out about 72 and a half. You're seeing about 70 and a half or 70 right about now. Here's the rub, and again, shout out J.J.
9:38
Bailey over at The New York Times. Um, in 20... So tomorrow's expected to be 95 degrees. Now, Kelly, I didn't know temperature was a, uh, mitigating factor here, but apparently it is. Oh, it's become a- So tomorrow-...
9:50
big topic over the past few years.
9:52
Uh, and these eaters, a- and including James Webb, who's third on the odds board, was just, was just on By the Books with, uh, David Jensen, talking about this too, and he said, uh, he was talking about it being a huge factor tomorrow, ha- them having to eat through this.
10:04
Well, so it's supposed to be 95 degrees. The last time it was, it was this hot during one of these was 2010, and in 2010, yes, Joey Chestnut won, but he only finished with 54 of these. Hmm.
10:17
The lowest among his 17 titles. Now he's 16 years older, has no real competition to, to push him, so 70 and a half or 70 still seems very high. Um, I bet this a couple ways.
10:32
One, um, rather than messing with Chestnut, 'cause I have too much respect for his, [laughs] for his prowess here, I didn't go with his under straight.
10:39
What I did is I combined him with Miko S- uh, Miki Sudo, who is the women's Joey Chestnut. She's almost as big of a favorite to win the women's side. Uh, her total is right around 39 right now. It was higher before.
10:53
I think it's still too high. Um, she last year only had 33 of these- Yeah... uh, that she was able to do in 10 minutes. Now it's 95 degrees.
11:03
So I bet Chestnut and Sudo combined under 110, also added an under 110 and a half, and Sudo straight under 39 at minus 115. Those are my two 2026 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contests.
11:19
Again, the only reason I care now, the only reason I'm jumping in for the first time, is because of the temperature. Yeah. J.J. Bailey, New York Times, shout-out. Yeah, it's great, great stuff.
11:27
The, I love that you, you and I were both looking at this stuff and independently got to these, the same bet. I, I, I b- I bet the under 110 and a half as well. I, I think it's a couple things, right?
11:36
You got Chestnut coming back last year, too, I think with some pressure of, "Hey, you, you were out a year," right? Like, "You better show up and be, uh, be the star again."
11:43
So you wonder how much more kinda relaxed and not as much pressure is o- on him coming into this. But, you know, it's kinda funny you say that, 'cause I did kind of more isolate the Sudo side, too, where it's- Yeah...
11:54
look, she's, she's had big-time performances where she's hit 50 before, but I think you need, I think you're gonna need something like that to push this over, and I don't, I don't know, with this heat, I don't know that we're gonna get there
12:06
Yeah. Not every out had, had these, but a couple of them did in my, uh, perusing this morning- Yeah, I had one option [laughs]... so I was able to get down. Yeah, I had two. I had a grand total of two that had them.
12:16
Um, anyway, there it is, breakdown, 2026 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest, tomorrow at Coney Island. Uh, looking forward to that on July the 4th. Coming back with the World Cup next on A Numbers Game right here at VSiN.
12:30
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12:53
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13:48
It's Gil Alexander in San Francisco this week, Kelly Bidlack back in, uh, Vegas. Couple things. One, if you're scoring at home, it just took hot weather to get me involved in the hot dog eating contest.
13:58
[laughs] That's the first thing. Second thing is, um- Move it inside- I asked Kelly just-... uh, Gil. Move it inside. That's what I told Danny before the show. I gotta make that argument. Move it inside?
14:05
It's becoming too- Oh my God... it's too crazy for these eaters, Gil. We gotta move this inside. [laughs] Can't have these guys talking about how it's affecting their eating. We wanna see prime chestnut every year.
14:15
Get 'em in some air conditioning. From the man who insists that every NFL game should be played indoors- [laughs]... he gives you this.
14:23
Um, the other thing, just, uh, following up on the, uh, scintillating, uh, Smash Mouth c- uh, conversation- Yeah... we were having before the show.
14:29
I asked Kelly in the break, I was like, "Can you think of Smash Mouth without thinking of this other musical artist that was popular at the same time in the '90s?"
14:39
Because I personally cannot think of Smash Mouth without thinking of this other group, and I can't think of this other group without thinking about Smash Mouth. And I said, "Kelly, can you name that other artist?"
14:48
And Kelly, you immediately said... Sugar Ray. Uh, Bobby, uh, you d- Dang... I don't, I don't even think you finished the question. It's amazing. I don't even think you fi- Yes.
14:54
You know what's funny, though, is I can think ab- I actually can think about Sugar Ray without thinking about Smash Mouth, just because
15:01
I would think they were, you would, they would be considered the more successful band. And then what, who was- Hmm... wh- what was his name? Mark McGrath, right? The front man. Correct. Yes.
15:09
[laughs] He ended up doing, like, a ton. Uh, right, right. Oh. He would do TV shows, radio shows. I mean, I think he was, I think he was a DJ on, on Sirius for a while. Oh, wow, okay.
15:18
Uh, he was doing all kind, all kinds of things, yeah. W- well, good on him. Good on him. Um, I don't think he can sing much anymore, by the way, is the last I heard.
15:26
Um- Oh, by the way, Gil, Zach Johnson back on top, birdie nine under. Ooh.
15:30
Zach Johnson might, if he wins this event, he might have, like, Jalen Brown-like comments after this season of it being, like, his favorite season ever.
15:38
'Cause he, he was the rare guy who turned 50 and was like, "Screw this PGA Tour and Scottie Scheffler. I'm just gonna go to the Champions Tour immediately and start beating up on the old guys."
15:47
And he sure did, because he's played in, uh, he's played in nine events on the Champions Tour this season. Sorry, eight. He's won twice.
15:57
He has five other top five finishes, and his worst finish in the entire season is eighth place. Wow.
16:04
And, and he's played a few other, and he's played in, like, a couple of the majors here, uh, this season, a couple of the PGA Tour events without much success.
16:11
But, uh, yeah, uh, nine under par, Zach Johnson, your leader at the John Deere Classic. Zach Johnson, who, uh, has won not one, but two majors. Mm-hmm. Which is, again, most sort of casuals are like, "He won two?"
16:24
Uh, 2007 Masters, of course, and then the 2015, uh, Open Championship, the British Open, if you will.
16:31
Um, I, you know, was like, when Crack was talking about poker yesterday, he was like, "Oh, yeah, I'm on the 50 and over."
16:36
I wonder if there's any poker players who are, like, 49 years and 364 days are like, "Oh my God, I can't wait to play on this other- [laughs] Probably, yeah... uh, poker tour." Yeah.
16:44
Um, we get tweets of beating the book. Best listeners of the game. I know I say that every day. I mean it every day. This is Darren Frazier, "Another Fezzik Friday. Wait, what? Took today off for fireworks?
16:56
Are you kidding me? That's why Unscripted with the Crack Band is the best segment of each week. Crack is the GOAT of goats. Enjoy the city, Gilly. Happy winning fourth, boys."
17:04
Uh, yeah, you know, they call this g- they call San Francisco the city. Do you know that? Uh, Oakland is the town. San Francisco- Hmm... is the city. Then there's the peninsula. Okay.
17:13
Then there's the East Bay, the North Bay. It's a whole, it's a whole vibe out here. I'm, I'm prepared to learn a lot about the Bay Area over the next couple weeks, okay? Please. Yeah, I, I take a little pride in it.
17:20
I, I need, I need a fun fact, a daily fun fact from Gil Alexander- [laughs]... about the Bay, Bay Area. Pleasure. Oh, my pleasure. Uh, Ray in Texas, "Missed the show yesterday.
17:29
I woke up today feeling lost, neglected, and a bit naked. I'm back on the saddle today listening in. Kelly, give me a five-leg parlay to win today. Baseball and soccer mixture. Go." Oh, okay. Six seconds.
17:39
Well, well, give me a br- give me a commercial break and I'll get that together for you. [laughs] But I'll b- write it down right now. Five-leg parlay. You got it. Uh, Bobby Geddis.
17:47
This is a really nice, uh, tweet from Bobby Geddis here, uh, as we, uh, go to celebrate the Day of Independence tomorrow.
17:55
Bobby Geddis, "Was thinking this morning there's only two shows/podcasts I listen to religiously, A Numbers Game and Harris Football's fantasy podcast. So I wondered what they had in common and why I enjoy them.
18:06
Humble hosts who don't press their opinion on people, ability to get along with any guest. Most importantly, include the listeners and offer to meet them." Thanks, y'all.
18:14
To me, [laughs] we, we would love to meet everybody. Well, that's for sure One, one of these days we will throw together a, a numbers game listener party.
18:23
We'll do it, I don't know, some- maybe in the summertime or something like that, Gill, right? Yeah. Maybe around the contest or Bet Bash weekends or something. We'll, we'll, we'll, we'll figure something out.
18:31
We'll figure something out. What do, what do you think we're doing? Small venues, arenas? We're not yet at stadiums yet, are we? Uh, eh- Or probably just small... probably not. Yeah.
18:38
You know, I think we're- Yeah, probably not... like Bar Canada, you know, like sealed off for ourselves or something. JasonH11 said the other band he thought of was Chumbawamba. [laughs] He didn't come up with Sugar Ray.
18:48
Uh, JC562076, "Let's go Barbora." First ever tennis bet from JC. JC, I hope we can get you a one and O. "And this is insanity," Mateo3537, he said.
18:59
This is a q- interesting question, much like we talk about with Scottie Scheffler and we've talked about with other, uh, sort of, you know, uh, players in other sports, "Is there a winner without Joey?
19:12
Is there a winner without Joey Chestnut market?" He says, "LOL." You better believe it. Yes, there is. Yes, there is. [laughs] It's actually a great question. Um, uh, I know an offshore bookmaker does.
19:23
I'm not sure, does DraftKings or, or FanDuel? Oh, Draft- yeah, DraftKings does. Uh, Gill, this is- Okay... okay, this might be a wild statement from me.
19:29
I'm not sure which came first, the winner without Joey Chestnut or the winner- Oh, that's a good call... without Scottie Scheffler market. That's a good call, 'cause Chestnut's like minus 2220, right?
19:41
And has been for years. To win the whole thing. So if you're booking this thing- Yeah... you almost need to post that market. That's right. Miko- Miki Sudo, by the way, is minus 2090, Miki Sudo.
19:50
Um, so yeah, so the winner without Joey Chestnut category tomorrow, Patrick Bertoletti, who won it the year Chestnut didn't participate, 2024, he's minus 326 where I'm looking.
20:02
Uh, James Webb then at plus 415, and then Jeffrey Esper, who if you're looking for a longer shot, might be the play in this market. Jeffrey Esper plus 655, 'cause he's put up some big numbers before.
20:15
So- Yeah, what- There you go. Yeah... J- James Webb was j- just on before us, Gill. I don't know if you caught any of that. He was, he was pumped up.
20:22
I love when we have guests on that are so excited to be on, and he was so excited to be on and talk David Jensen through this, the entire process.
20:30
Man, I- [laughs] We, we, we talk about some of these lower, like lower-end pro sports, like you talk about it with women's tennis sometimes, of just the grind of what this c- what, what a career in that business looks like from travel, right?
20:44
Oh, yeah. And you're going all over the world. You're playing all times of the year.
20:48
Listening to him talk about being from Australia, just having moved out here part-time, like s- six, and spending half the year out here while his wife and newborn baby are back in Australia, while he's thrilled to have the opportunity to compete professionally in competitive eating here in the United States, I, it was a fascinating couple minutes to listen to.
21:11
Yeah. And again, we've tried this at VSIN before. I think Greg Peterson hurled, if I'm not mistaken, back at the South Point, uh, studio. Uh, yeah. I, I think- Yeah. I don't know that, Scott.
21:20
I don't know if there was a reversal or not. The one, the- Yeah...
21:23
the one quote I had to confirm with Rob Moreno yesterday, 'cause it would ta- it's one of the more legendary VSIN, uh, uh, office quotes, uh, in my time here at least.
21:33
It was from, uh, the, the, the big m- the big man, Bill Adee, saying that he would let, he would let Isaiah Wrinkle have a pet alligator in the office before he allowed- [laughs]...
21:42
another hot dog eating contest in one of our studios. So, I, that is one of my favorite all-time quotes at VSIN. I don't know why Isaiah caught the stray, but yes, I, I enjoy that comment.
21:52
Um- Because I'm sure Isaiah was bugging him about doing more eating contests and stuff like that. Hey, can I get a pet alligator? Yeah.
21:58
[laughs] Um, and then JBT tried it outside of the South Point Studio, I think it was live on air, and you could see it in his eyes. Yeah. Like about three and a half buns in, it was like, "Oh, he's done."
22:08
So this is, it is definitely impossible to do. Today, triple header, last day of the round of 32 at the World Cup. We'll have Felika on later. We'll have Paul Carr on later to break this down.
22:18
Felika's actually gonna, going into subsequent days. I think Paul might as well. Uh, but today it's Australia versus Egypt. That's in Arlington, Texas.
22:25
The winner will play the winner of the Argentina-Cape Verde match, which follows it in a round of 16 game, by the way, Tuesday. That's where the two teams will meet. Then it's Argentina-Cape Verde.
22:35
Uh, and then tonight Colombia and Ghana. Uh, that's in Kansas City. The winner will play Switzerland in the round of 16 on Tuesday. And speaking of that, Switzerland wins easily yesterday against Algeria.
22:48
Spain wins easily earlier in the day. The middle match was the fascinating one, Portugal and Croatia, where a would-be Cristiano Ronaldo equalizer was called back because his body leaned just a bit offside.
23:04
Then there was a penalty called inside the penalty box. I think that was the correct call. Ronaldo puts in the PK to tie it one apiece.
23:11
Portugal goes up two to one, and when, I mean the last moments, I'm talking like way past where it was 10 minutes of added time. Yeah. This was like 12 minutes deep.
23:20
Croatia appears to get the equalizer at the end, but the ball s- just absolutely skims off a Croatian player.
23:28
That induces an offsides call from VAR, and so Croatia does not get the equalizer, and Portugal wins it two to one. Offsides, man, it's an amazing thing for the American, uh, sensibility- Yeah...
23:42
to watch, but that's what makes the sport so, uh, so unique. Mm-hmm. Let's put it that way. Um, let's come back. Let's talk about all kinds of things. Uh, let's go with, uh- Noops... soccer next. Noops.
23:55
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24:11
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24:24
It's Gill Alexander. We get tweets @BeatingTheBook. Uh, this is from Jumpbaw, who says, "Mark McGrath turned Sugar Ray into an entire media career and now goes back on tour with Sugar Ray. Guy has it figured out." Yep.
24:38
So as you were saying, Kelly, uh, he has, uh, made the most of it. Larry Fresh- They just played somewhere here in Vegas re- like in the past week or two, Palms or somewhere like that
24:47
Larry Fresh to my question of who do, who do I immediately associate Smash Mouth with, with another group? He says, "Me screaming out loud, Sugar Ray. It's Sugar Ray at the radio."
24:57
[laughs] It really is, uh, the reason that I f- uh, that I bring that up is 'cause it's so interesting why, you know, you don't think of, I don't know, Earth, Wind & Fire with another group, right?
25:07
You don't think of other groups associated with others, but there's something about the one or two-hit nature of them and the time period. Uh, Fred Currier, "Thank you guys for being on today.
25:16
Pictures from the lake to follow." Very nice, Fred. Enjoy the lake. Is that Tahoe you're referring to? I'm not sure.
25:23
Frank Doyle, "Just asked my wife which band she associates Smash Mouth with the most, and she says, 'I don't know their name, but they play that Bedpost song.'" [laughs] Happy Fourth, fellas. That's Sugar Ray, right?
25:33
Um- Every morning, yep... every morning. Arent Diggity, "You gotta bag it up. Cal Sheets has a winner without Joey Chestnut as well. Current market is Patrick Bertoletti. Yes 65 cents, no 36 cents." Um,
25:47
Jason McKinney, "I jumped on a little late, but caught y'all talking about Joey Chestnut. I know Gil likes documentaries. Have you seen the Chestnut and Kobayashi documentary? It's great." Yes. That is a great one.
25:56
That's a 30, that's a 30 for 30, by the way- Mm-hmm... um, on, uh, Kobayashi and Joey Chestnut. And then, uh, Shooter McGamblin, "Barry Lamar Bonds, Joe Jackson Gibbs, and Joseph Christian Chestnut."
26:10
Okay, let's, let's not get crazy here. Uh, and then Mark at Vancino, "Hopefully you had a chance to make it over to High Tops in the Castro District for the best chicken sandwich I told you about." Wow, okay.
26:21
Um, all right. That sounds good. Best chicken sand- Bring me one back... I'm down. Never been there, but I'll, I'll absolutely- I'm gonna throw one more at you, Gil. How about- Please...
26:28
mem- member, uh, Crazy Town and Butterfly? That's another one where like same kind of look. I'm not, not exactly the same sound a- as Sugar Ray, uh, but, uh, I, I, the look at least belongs with those guys for sure.
26:42
Well, the best answer to this question comes from our next guest, uh, Alex Noopes Christensen, who comes, uh, to talk to us not only about the NBA, but also about his Wimbledon plays, but I threw this out to him as well, the, uh, Sugar Ray, uh, Smash Mouth thing, and what did you say, Alex?
26:55
What was the other one? Of course, after that and you're watching MTV, comes up Lens, If You Steal My Sunshine.
27:02
[laughs] And it's amazing, Kelly, I, I hadn't thought about Crazy Town and Butterfly, but they actually tie to another band. Do you remember, uh, 3 Doors or, uh, I think it was 3 Doors Down- 3 Doors Down...
27:11
that song Kryptonite or something like that? Yeah, yep. I cannot think of Butterfly without immediately hearing Kryptonite.
27:16
[laughs] So this is just, what a wonderful day of like '90s alt rock kind of one-two hit wonder nostalgia. I'm really enjoying this. TRL. Yeah, where's Carson Daly at to help, help us out? Oh, God, hope he's okay.
27:28
I loved, I loved Steal My Sunshine by Lens. That was awesome. That was a great song. Everybody did. Total banger. Uh, Alex, by the way, is a betting analyst over there at FTN Bets.
27:37
Uh, we know FTN from all of our time with Aaron Shots, for instance. Uh, you can follow Alex on Twitter @underscoreNoopes on Twitter.
27:46
Uh, Alex, before we get to the NBA stuff, by the way, Alex or Noopes, which do you prefer? Anything? Either one? Whatever makes you happy. I, I generally have been called multiple things throughout my life.
27:55
Noopes is good. Alex is fine. Whatever feels good, Gil. All right, Noopes feels good. So Noopes, here's the deal. Uh, let's get the tennis plays out of the way in case they are about to start.
28:04
I wanna get those on record. What do you got today? All right, hold on. I'm gonna put on my Wimbledon hat since- Wow... I don't get to wear this very often. There you go. Whoa. [laughs] And we've got some plays here.
28:13
Wow. But thank you, Gil, for teeing that up pretty quickly because I, I think we've got one that's gonna be underway shortly here. Aryna Sabalenka is gonna be playing, uh, Elena Ostapenko.
28:22
I think that's next up on whatever court they're on. Sabalenka minus four, Sabalenka minus four and a half. I'm seeing minus four around minus 120, minus 125. Minus four and a half, minus 105, minus 110, in that area.
28:35
I think either is fine. Uh, this just looks like a great blowout spot for Sabalenka. Uh, for anyone who knows Ostapenko, she generally overwhelms opponents with power. No one's got more power than Sabalenka.
28:46
That is really not gonna be a problem for her. She is comfortable with that.
28:49
If you go back and look at their head-to-head, outside of a, a match last year when Penko was basically peaking on clay, Sabalenka has really just throttled her, and I expect that to happen today.
28:58
So I had the spread closer to five, five and a half, so minus four, minus 120, 25 is okay. Uh, minus four and a half, if that's a little cheaper, go for that too.
29:07
That's one starting soon, and then tomorrow morning, folks, not sure of the start time yet.
29:11
We'll see when they release those, but Maria Sakkari is going to be playing, and she is an underdog to Jasmine Paolini, and I just can't figure out why. I've got Sakkari as a small favorite of that match.
29:21
I'm seeing her basically plus 10 or better just about everywhere. I love Sakkari tomorrow.
29:27
This will be a match of two women that generally don't play well on grass, but a- again, neither one of them does, so you're not gonna really have to deal with kind of the specialist thing there.
29:35
Paolini generally beats people by grinding them down. No one's in better shape than Sakkari here. So like Sabalenka, again, minus four, minus four and a half games, whatever you got in front of you, that's starting soon.
29:44
Hurry up and grab that. And for tomorrow morning, Maria Sakkari, anything with a plus in front of it should be pretty good against Jasmine Paolini.
29:53
That's such a great call on, uh, Paolini and Sakkari because you are absolutely correct.
29:59
They are both not particularly great grass court players, and so far have completely exceeded their, uh, their pay grade, if you will, with their grass performance thus far. So that's an interesting match, uh, tomorrow.
30:11
I actually had Roksolova as a dog against Sakkari yesterday, and that fell apart in the third set tiebreaker.
30:17
Uh, to the NBA, um, Kelly's favorite division, we always joke about this, how like SEC football fans will like often wear like an SC... It'll be like SC, the chant will be for the SEC.
30:28
We always find that very interesting that they're rooting for a conference when their team can't make it to the promised land.
30:33
Uh, we always joke, does the Southeast Division in the NBA have this kind of, uh, un- unanimous joy with each other? You have a couple bets in that division this up- upcoming season.
30:44
Yeah, and just to remind everybody, the Southeast Division in the NBA, it, it is probably one of the closer ones, maybe the Atlantic, because the teams are actually physically pretty close. Yeah.
30:53
And again, the Southeast Division, for those of you who may not know, that's the Atlanta Hawks, the Charlotte Hornets, the Miami Heat, the Orlando Magic, and the Washington Wizards.
31:02
And there has been much made of the great trade the Miami Heat made for Giannis Antetokounmpo. I, I think that's gonna make them a really interesting team. Next year I think they're gonna be a defensive juggernaut.
31:11
Offensively they'll have to figure it out.
31:13
But I, I think the market has overreacted to, to this team and kind of where they are here, because a- as good as the Heat should be at their best, how often are they gonna be at their best?
31:24
This is a roster that's very thin.
31:26
We know Giannis Antetokounmpo has missed games every season over the last couple years, and with injuries like back injuries, calf injuries, those are things that generally don't get better over time.
31:36
Now, they can become manageable, and if he plays most of the season, I, I agree that the, um, uh, Miami Heat should win that division pretty comfortably. But I'm seeing them right around plus 100.
31:45
I think that's a crazy number. You've got two teams, the Atlanta Hawks and the Orlando Magic. I love both of their prices. I'm seeing the Hawks plus 350.
31:53
I think that team is as at least as good as it was last year, probably just a little bit better with some of the moves they've made. I've really enjoyed that. Plus 350 looks like a really good number to me there.
32:02
And the Orlando Magic, I'm seeing them around plus 450, and that's a team that really hasn't made any changes, but I, I think again, just with an off-season working together, what we saw from them towards the end of last year, if that can carry through, both the Magic and the Heat are gonna be very, very competitive teams.
32:17
And if we get even 15, 20 games missed from Giannis Antetokounmpo, I love both of those numbers. I think we're gonna be in what is a tight division race.
32:25
It's a three-team race, and I'm happy to take the two teams at, at the longer odds right now. Yeah. So give me, again, in the Southeast Division to win that division, the Hawks plus 350, the Magic plus 450. I like it.
32:37
Uh, Noops, of all, of all the trades made thus far, Giannis, um, Kawhi, LaMelo Ball before that, Jaylen Brown obviously the most recent, of all those big names that have been traded around, what's the one of those that gets you the closest to provoking a bet from you?
32:58
Well, I think as full disclosure, I'll put on another hat. I am a card-carrying 76ers fan, so I've, I feel like- Wow... people should know that bias comes in- Wow. Gross... to this answer. Um, it, it's just--
33:09
Now, that said, I am not quite ready to bet on the Sixers because it, it's kinda similar to what I just talked about with the Heat, where the Sixers acquiring Brown is awesome. That ma- absolutely makes the team better.
33:18
But Philadelphia's success at the end of the season comes down to Joel Embiid being healthy for two months at the end of the season, and I still cannot count on that. Um, we just talked about Giannis to Miami.
33:28
I think they're probably still a year away. Uh, uh, to me, I am gonna be spending a lot of time watching Timberwolves games earlier in the season. I, I just need to see how LaMelo interacts with that team.
33:37
If he can behave, that gives Minnesota exactly what they need. They get an incredible three-point shooter, someone who can attack the basket, distribute the ball. I think that's gonna be really interesting.
33:47
A- and Kawhi to the Raptors I think makes a ton of sense, but there's one piece. They just need one more piece. I wish they had, uh, maybe a better center, a better point guard, something like that.
33:55
So I haven't clicked on either of those teams yet, but I am gonna be watching the Timberwolves very closely and the Raptors very closely earlier in this year. The Timberwolves, again, to me really stick out.
34:04
If that looks comfortable and smooth and everyone's happy and hunky-dory to start the season, I will probably bet the Timberwolves. All right.
34:11
To review, uh, Noops' plays in the NBA, Hawks to win the Southeast at plus 350, the Magic to win the Southeast Division at plus 450, and then tennis today has not started quite yet, I don't believe. Uh, Irina- Nope...
34:26
Sabalenka, uh, going up against Jelena Ostapenko. He's giving the four or four and a half games, uh, whatever you can get there, versus the Hamburger, Ostapenko.
34:35
And then tomorrow, Maria Sakkari money line over Jasmine Paolini. That's a bit of a coin flip. It's like doing an interview with Gallagher with all the props. Noops, that was awesome. Appreciate it. Gallagher reference.
34:46
Wow. My pleasure, gentlemen. Best of luck until we talk again. Thank you, sir. Appreciate it. Coming back, a little baseball from Kelly and me next on A Numbers Game right here at VSiN.
34:54
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
35:11
Back on A Numbers Game live from San Francisco this week. It's Gil Alexander. I'll be here next week as well.
35:17
Kelly Bedell in back at the mothership at Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas, the VSiN studios overlooking the largest sportsbook in the world over there at Circa, Derek, Derek Stevens' Shangri-La in downtown Las Vegas.
35:30
We get tweets beating the book. Carl Neufeld, "Gil, Dimitrov is back and playing like he did last year, ready to get to the finals."
35:38
I don't know about the finals there, Carl, but I had Dimitrov as a big dog winner yesterday, so I am with you directionally.
35:46
Um- Well, I was, I was doing my research yesterday, Gil, and it looked like Grigor took some time off, uh, was on a nice vacation with his very lovely girlfriend, so I think he c- he's coming in, uh, to this tournament, uh, with, feeling a little refreshed and ready to win some tournaments.
36:00
Carl also adds, he goes, "Also, by the way, golfer Zach Johnson lives on the golf course that they're playing the John Deere on."
36:07
And he says, a coach, he signs off his tweet, he says, "Coach Carl coached 21 Wimbledons, 20 US Opens." Wow. Okay. Carl, you coached, uh, players during Wimbledon? Really? Wow.
36:19
Uh, 3JackH, 3JackH, 3-1-3-1, "Gil, you can only associate Earth, Wind & Fire with one other band because they're one of the top two bands of all time." I believe you're referring to The Beatles. I believe you are.
36:32
Uh, actually, you know, I do associate Earth, Wind & Fire with, uh, The Commodores, only because I, uh, my musical awakening featured both at the same time. JC, "Crazy Town! Come, come, my lady. Come, come, my lady.
36:45
You're my butterfly." That was their big hit. Kelly brought up Crazy Town yester- uh, earlier. Uh, Scotty, Leisure Suit Kobe, "Kelly read my mind with Crazy Town. That's who I thought of first.
36:54
My sister took me to a Vancouver Grizzlies game when the Spurs were here- Yeah... like 20 years ago, and Crazy Town was sitting front row like Jack Nicholson." [laughs] "They put him on the big screen.
37:03
It was super random." [laughs] Ah, that's an awesome story. [laughs]And then look, is that, is that Crazy Town in the front row? Oh, man. Uh,
37:11
R- Rocco Salperto, Gil Sugar Ray guest starred on the TV series Las Vegas in 2004. They sang every morning for James Caan and Cheryl Ladd's wedding anniversary. [laughs] So great. Oh, man.
37:24
By the way, Cheryl Ladd, spectacular. James Giuliano or James Giuliano, uh, "Only on the Fourth of July could Smash Mouth and hot dogs be the opening segment. Happy Fourth, and remember, you're an all-star."
37:35
I believe it's, "Hey now, you're an all-star." Hey. Hey. Uh, and the numbers, guys. Len is definitely the correct answer. "Oh, by the way, Earth, Wind & Fire, I instantly think of Blood, Sweat, and Tears.
37:45
Happy Fourth of July." Happy Fourth of July to everybody. Uh, not just any Fourth of July, our 250th- Woo!... birthday as a nation. That is monstrous. Uh, I hope everybody has their plans set out.
37:57
I hope the weather cooperates. I know here in, uh, San Francisco, it's, uh, it's potluck. Some years it's spectacular, and then some years, you see this behind me?
38:06
Some years that happens, and you don't really see the fireworks. You see puffs of color- What, what? It's just hazy... because of the marine layer. It's just hazy, right? Yeah, marine layer, yep.
38:14
There have been a couple years of that, yes. So the Golden Gate Bridge is supposed to have a big deal tomorrow, as so many icons throughout the country are, are supposed to have.
38:23
So, um, hopefully the weather cooperates and it's just a beautiful thing for everybody. But, uh- Amen... have a safe, have a safe Fourth of July more than anything. Uh, Kelly- And I'm feeling for all the dogs out there.
38:33
All, all the dogs- Yes... I feel bad for just every, every New Year's Eve, Fourth of July. It's just, ugh, the worst. That's right. Have a, have a long, heartfelt discussion with your dog beforehand. Mm-hmm.
38:45
Warn, warn the canine. Uh, Kelly, we had a request earlier, an outlandish request from somebody earlier- Yep... for you to immediately put together a five-leg baseball and soccer parlay. Yes. You came through.
38:58
Which I, no, I immediately broke the rules. I, I re- immediately broke the rules. Ah. I think this was Ray who tweeted this in, so, uh, I don't- Yes, Ray in Texas...
39:05
I don't think we have the great graphic I just came up with here ready yet, but it's okay 'cause I wanna get these out there because one of them does start soon.
39:11
I labeled it, though, Gil, Kelly's Independence Day Eve five-leg parlay, okay? [laughs] Okay. I, like, I don't know if Independence- Yeah... Day Eve gets used very often. Uh, okay, I went with Sabalenka.
39:22
I'm gonna tail Noops and Gil on a couple tennis plays here, Ray, okay? Sabalenka money line, Barbora money line, Krejcikova, uh, and then we're gonna go to soccer.
39:30
Egypt, Australia draw here starting, what are we, what, three hours away from that game? Argentina money line, yeah, that's chalky, and then Yankees, Gerrit Cole, let's get off the mat. Danny approved of this.
39:43
Danny, big Yankees fan. Yankees money line as well. It's kinda boring. It's gonna pay, like, a little over nine to one, okay? Sorry, sorry it's not, like, an 80 to one shot. There you go.
39:52
Kelly Bidlin, ask and you shall receive. That's right. Little bit of the breakage of the rules, but we'll, we'll, we'll accept it. Um, we've looked at these markets every so often.
40:02
We shall look at them again to see if anything has changed in our thinking. Again, we've passed the halfway mark of the Major League Baseball season.
40:09
Uh, the All-Star break is at the end of next week, so you got, you know, what's that? 10 more days of baseball here, and then it's the All-Star break.
40:17
Obviously Home Run Derby will be a thing, uh, during that time period. Then it's the, then it's the draft in the middle of July. So the draft is coming right after that or during that, and then it's the trade deadline.
40:29
Trade deadline doesn't happen till August 3rd, by the way, this year.
40:33
So still a lot of baseball to be played, and in terms of, like, make-miss playoffs and futures plays that you're considering making, so many of this comes down to how will a team perform the rest of the way between now and that trade deadline on August 3rd?
40:48
They will decide whether to buy or sell based on their performance.
40:52
And Kelly, honestly, and Roxy Roxborough used to do a great job of bringing this up when he used to come on, which is sometimes it comes down to the last week or weekend- Mm-hmm... with some of these teams.
41:02
Like, it's that ridiculous, and especially a year like this, where you have an entire league in the American League where everybody's seemingly mediocre. Good God, like, how are we gonna determine?
41:13
That's why betting is so much more challenging, I think, this year with these mid-season plays. You still have no idea what so many of these teams are going to do.
41:23
Doesn't prevent us, though, from trying to assess the most regular season wins and the fewest regular season wins. Uh, let's start with most, where the Dodgers are still a big favorite at minus 475.
41:35
I stick by what I have said the entire time with this, which is, yeah, they're 57 and 31. Yes, they have a really, like, if you care about schedules, I mean, this is, let me, disclaimer, it's July 3rd.
41:49
How much do I care about the notion of strength of schedule when you still have, like, 70-plus baseball games to play? Uh, somewhat. Mm. But it is a note that I'll just, to be thorough, I'll put in there.
42:01
The Dodgers are 57 and 31. It's the sixth easiest remaining schedule the rest of the way, but I still go to the Brewers, who are 53 and 32. To me, that's the bet.
42:12
This has always been the bet every time we've done this segment. They're five to one in the betting market. Their schedule is very middling in terms of strength of schedule.
42:20
It's a 502 aggregate, uh, current win percentage of their remaining opponents.
42:25
Uh, by the way, the difference between 13th hardest schedule and 25th hardest, which is the difference between the Brewers and the, uh, Dodgers, is an aggregate opponent win percentage of 502 versus 489.
42:38
So over a course of 70-plus games, it really doesn't mean that much. So it's just- Yeah... it's a note, but I wouldn't go crazy with it. When it gets to, like, a month left in the season, then it matters to me.
42:48
But to me, the Brewers at five to one, Kelly, that's the play. Yeah, a- and Gil, I don't wanna speak for you, but I know you've brought this up before. I'm assuming you, you, same thinking here, right?
42:56
Just, just what is gonna be the motivation for this Dodgers team down the stretch, right? It, it, it's, it's, you don't ne- necessarily need to go capture that one seed because you got the double byes, right?
43:07
You just gotta make sure you secure a bye. So I think that make- That's right... that, that, you know, uh, uh, just adding that on, you've brought that up plenty, plenty of times before.
43:14
Yeah, to me, it was trying to figure out w- how, how far on this list can you go down? And then, I don't know, I, every, having said all that about the Dodgers, do they still just end up, you know-
43:25
Just cruising into the one seed anyways.
43:27
Yeah, it could happen And ev- and even if your eyes go down, to your point, Kelly, even if they go down, teams like the Phillies and the Yankees, 'cause obviously there's- Right...
43:36
huge fan bases for those teams, you have to understand that the Phillies and Yankees right now, uh, the Dodgers are 57 and 31. The Yankees are 48 and 38, so you're only, you're like nine... What is that?
43:48
Eight games behind- Mm-hmm, mm-hmm... right now at this point.
43:51
If you're the Yankees, you're the same amount of games behind percentage points difference if you're the, if you're, if you're thinking about betting the Phillies. That's why they're so long.
43:59
It's justifiable why they're so long. But that point that you just made that I've made before is this, uh, that I've made before is this. Again, yes, the Dodgers are the best team in baseball.
44:07
Yes, they wanna win the World Series, but that's all they care about. They don't care about being the number one seed. They care desperately about being one of the two top seeds so that they can escape the best of three.
44:18
That's all they care about. And remember last year, the Brewers had the best record as well. So Brewers to me. How about fewest regular season wins, which is always a little more comical? Yeah. Um- What was-...
44:28
Colorado Rockies and Kansas City Royals, who a lot of people thought were gonna be good this year. They're both 35 and 53. The difference in schedules there might be interesting to folks, though.
44:37
The Rockies have the sixth hardest remaining. The Royals have the second easiest remaining. So if you... That, there, that is a little...
44:47
I mean, I don't care much about schedule, but when it's extremes like that- Yeah... maybe it does matter a little bit.
44:53
So that's why a lot of the reason people think the Rockies are worse anyway, but the schedule plays into why the Rockies are a $2 favorite there. Uh, is there another team?
45:04
The Giants, once again, are the one that I will bring up at 20 to 1 because I expect them to unload everybody. I think it's the only other one you can cont- can c- can, can consider right now, right, Gil? I think so.
45:14
Couldn't get that out. I think so. Um, they, you know, offensively, the Giants have actually been pretty good.
45:22
Like, you look at some of the numbers, you're like, "Wow, I didn't realize they were, they were this competent offensively." Sequencing has been awful for them,
45:28
but they're gonna get rid of everybody, I think, by the draft here within the next week or two- Oof... or three here for sure before the trade deadline. So that's a long shot I would consider.
45:38
Haven't made a bet on it, but just keep that in mind. Yeah. Adames, Devers, Chapman, Ramos. Who knows who they're getting rid of? Coming back with more.
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