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Jul 3, 2026
A Numbers Game | July 3, 2026 | Hour 3
A Numbers Game | July 3, 2026 | Hour 3
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45:22
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat rock music] This is VSiN, the sports betting network. The numbers told the story, they always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:18
Our number three of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the e-sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, SiriusXM Channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. Kelly Bidlin back in Las Vegas.
0:30
Do we have a shot, Kelly, of, uh, of Danny Higgins- Oh, yeah, we do... in the studio? Trying to b- trying to push Dave Ross, Captain America, out of his job. Watch out, Dave. Uh- Danny's coming for you this weekend.
0:41
Yeah, look at that guy. Happy Fourth of July. Danny Higgins. Look at this guy. He's ready to rage. [laughs] Is that a bandana he's wearing? It's har- it's hard to see.
0:49
I know h- I know he's got a, yeah, he's got a- Yeah... yeah, stars and stripes bandana there.
0:53
I know he's gonna be, uh, at a pool party barbecue tomorrow, so Danny Higgins on Fourth of July should be in, uh, rare form tomorrow. I'm looking forward to it. Can I give a, can I give a shout-out here?
1:03
Uh, I'm, I'm doing this, uh, show this week. This is the first time we've ever done this, right? Uh, nine and a half years of the Numbers Game. This is the first time I've ever... Oh, that's not true.
1:11
During the pandemic I did shows from San Francisco also. Oh, yeah. Yeah. But this is the first time non-pandemic we've ever done shows from, uh, from elsewhere.
1:19
And someone asked me the other day on Twitter, "Hey, what are your favorite three spots in the Marina specifically?" Mm-hmm. 'Cause we overlook the Marina here.
1:26
So I tried to think off the cuff of a couple places in the Marina. I gave a breakfast burrito spot, a sushi place.
1:31
Um, but tonight, uh, me and, uh, Debra Song, fashion stylist, we are going to, I always say this, 'cause it's one of the first meals I ever had when I moved to San Francisco, and I always say, "If there is ever a day where I leave, it will be my last meal in San Francisco."
1:46
We are having it tonight. Um, it is a place called Tan Long. It is out by the Pacific Ocean.
1:53
Uh, there is a, there's a place called Crustacean that ended up happening more in, you know, close by here in the middle of the city, and then there's one in Beverly Hills, but the original is Tan Long.
2:05
It is a place that specializes, Kelly, in Dungeness crab and garlic noodles. Y- Vietnamese- It is-... right? Vietnamese. Found it. It is the greatest thing ever. Yeah, this looks- So we're gonna be there tonight.
2:18
This looks damn good Pumped. Da- Danny and I will hop on a flight after the show. We'll see you in a few hours. See you in a few hours. Yeah, make it for four. See- Make it for four. Uh, make it for four.
2:27
[laughs] I will. Um, Chris Heath- This looks really good. Yeah, you're gonna enjoy this. Oh, dude. Dude, it's the greatest thing ever. Chris Heath, "I took a quick jaunt to Reno and signed up for millions.
2:36
Uh, the proxy said I was, like, the second entry this year.
2:39
Put my favorite part of the t- but my favorite part of the trip was chatting with the fraternity in the sportsbook and at the tables," meaning other sports bettors, as we were just es- uh, discussing.
2:48
And Spike McGruder, "Yankees, last 15 games, worst team in the American League. Four and 11. Woof. Tied for worst in MLB."
2:56
By the way, it should be also pointed out 'cause we're doing the, uh, monthlies, as soon as midnight struck June 30th, or I guess let's say midnight the morning of July 1st, the Marlins decided to su- to suck again. Yep.
3:08
Yeah, what are they give- Oh-and-two in July... what are they giving up, like, 42 runs in o- over two games? Eh, not quite that many. [laughs] But, but you get the idea. Um- You know what?
3:15
My, my spyglass, Danny, that's what I was just looking at you for. I really need my spyglass.
3:19
I was trying to check the entry count, uh, out there on the board, and, uh, good thing I went to the eye doctor the other day, 'cause I think the prescription needs an update. I can't read how many entries we have.
3:29
It's more than two, though. Did you have a golfing, did you have a golfing you wanted to say, Kelly- Oh... before we move on? Yeah, yeah, I just wanted to update.
3:34
So just John Deere Classic, uh, Zach Johnson still in the lead. One-shot lead. He is nine under par over Tom Kim, who I might have bet, uh, Lucas Glover, Zach Blair, and Chris Gottrup, who I might have bet.
3:45
Uh, but this is Zach Johnson. If he wins this event, Zach Johnson just turned 50. Win- started playing Champions Tour golf this year, has won twice on the Champions Tour already this season.
3:55
So I started thinking when we were ha- we had Fleek on and I was asking him, I'm like, "Man, do you remember the last time somebody won same season, won on the PGA Tour and the Champions, uh, Tour?"
4:06
And I, it was, I, I had to go back and, and I thought I w- there was someone we were forgetting past 10, 12 years probably, uh, where some of these guys have gotten a little older and gone over there.
4:15
No, I, it, it, there's only three guys that have ever done it. Last one, Fred Funk in 2007, then it's Craig Stadler and Raymond Floyd. Only three guys that have won PGA Tour and Champions Tour in the same season.
4:28
So pretty, uh- Wow... pretty amazing. And Zach Johnson, this is definitely, I mean, this is an easy course. We talked about it the other day, uh, how easy this is.
4:36
You got eight consecutive years of 16 under or better winning this. It, it becomes a putting contest, so it is a course I think he could win at. This'll be fun to watch througho- through the weekend. Fred Funk.
4:47
Fred Funk. Whenever you, uh, reference Fre- was he a University of Maryland guy, or am I just making that up? Oh, God, I have no idea where Fred Funk went. Fred Funk. Let's see.
4:55
By the way, what a great name, Freddy Funk. Um, okay, let's get to, uh, we, I promised... Now, here's the thing with some of these things- We got baseballs for the show...
5:05
'cause Kelly's always scouring this stuff, so sometimes we're gonna have really well-thought-out bets.
5:09
Sometimes you just kinda throw them up there to look at and you're like, "You know, it's okay that there's no real bet here." You're so annoying. Let's go to the Amer- Yes, University of Maryland. I, I- Thank you...
5:17
I am so tired of working with Gil Alexander with the- [laughs]... "Am I wrong or is it this?" And I go to double-check it, and 98% of the time he's, uh, it's dead on right. Well, I grew up there, so that's how I do that.
5:29
[laughs] Uh, American League West, again, logjam. Once again, atop the American League West here as we head towards the All-Star break, it is our Texas Rangers.
5:38
By our Texas Rangers, we have the pre-flop season win total over on them. They are in a tie with the Seattle Mariners, who most people had and was the pre-flop division favorite. They're both 45 and 43.
5:49
The Astros are two and a half back at 43 and 46, and the Athletics are three and a half back at, uh, 41 and 46. Angels the only team not created like the others.
5:59
A- and again, you can go through You can go through the strength of schedule. I don't think it's very meaningful. Um, by the way, they're all on the easy half of remaining schedules, largely because they play each other.
6:12
Um, so there's not much difference there. I don't have a bet here, Kelly. I mean, as much as I wanna say- Yeah... the Rangers, 'cause it will sort of corroborate my season win total over, do I trust them?
6:24
Um, maybe, but plus 170 is not a good enough bang for my buck to play that.
6:29
The Mariners, who I presume, you know, I, like many, believe they are probably the best team, I, I'm not playing them because I don't necessarily trust them. I had them one of the months this year.
6:40
They're not a very fun team to, uh, deal with on a day-to-day basis. The Astros are six to one, and you're like, "Well, shouldn't that be a bet?" I don't really trust their pitching. Mm-hmm.
6:50
Um, so there's no bet in the end, and it's okay to not bet all of these, but it's, it's interesting to look at.
6:55
Yeah, my first thought, and it sounds like you're, you're kinda saying the same thing, my first thought on this one was, all these numbers feel about right. And I, I don't- Kind of... right? Like, that's- Yeah...
7:05
that's kinda where I was at on it. So I, yeah, I'm, I'm with you. There's not a- anyone that really jumped out to me on this. Astro, uh, uh, Athletics 16 to 1, yeah, no, can't do it.
7:16
Um, but I did, again, Yankees in the AL East might be the, might be the call on all those. Um- Like, you double, you double that number. Yeah, i- or you talk, give me 25, 30 to one- Yeah...
7:25
I'm interested in that A's price, right? Like, yeah, Astros- I would be interested... Astros is 10 to one, I'm probably interested. Mariners is plus money, I'm interested. Those all feel pretty right.
7:34
It's July 3rd, so of course we did a whole segment on the hot dog eating contest, so we're just sort of scouring other things. Um, but football will be here soon enough. Next month, preseason football.
7:46
Let's let that sink in for a second. Next month, preseason football. When's the Hall of Fame game? Is that early August? No, it's probably like- Early August...
7:53
it's probably like in four days and we just don't know about it. Yeah, it's always like- [laughs] That's right... it's always like the first week of August. Hall of Fame game, August 6th.
8:01
All right, so let's, let's just look at some make, miss playoffs here in the National Football League. We all did this for the guide. We picked all of our, not only our division winners, but our wildcard teams.
8:11
So I'm curious, Kelly, let's start with the AFC, because your, your Buffalo Bills are involved in this. Um, I'll tell you what my teams were in the guide, and then we can just go from there. Mm-hmm.
8:23
And I'm curious what yours are. I had the Ravens, Bills, Patriots, Chiefs, Texans, and Broncos as my... Oh, wait, that's only, yeah, is that s- no, that was only six that I mentioned. Oh, okay, so I, I left out one.
8:39
Who did I have as my seventh? I don't even remember now who my seventh was. But I know I had Ravens, Bills, Patriots, Chiefs, uh, Texans, and Broncos as six of my seven.
8:49
Those are all minus prices for making the playoffs. The closest in terms of, in terms of the shortest, I should say, of those, the Texans at minus 180. I had them winning the, uh, AFC North.
9:02
The Broncos I had as a wildcard at minus 140. Those are the shortest of the bunch. I think the Jaguars were my other wildcard at plus 110. Well, yeah, D- Danny tells me it's, it is the Jaguars.
9:14
Plus 110 is the yes on them. So I don't know, you know, who did I leave out, in other words? I guess that's the better question to ask.
9:23
I left out the Bengals, who are minus 186 yes, plus 154 no, and I left out the Chargers, minus 168 yes, plus 140 no. Who did you have? Yeah, just had to pull this up to make sure I had it right.
9:36
I have, from the guide, division winners Bills, Bengals, Jaguars, Chargers, wild cards Ravens, Patriots, Chiefs. Yeah, so we differed on the Bengals and Chargers, in other words. Yes. Yeah. We did.
9:52
So who am I leaving out? I'm leaving Broncos out. Yep. And I'm leaving Texans out. And Texans. Yep. Yeah. Which Texans was one of the no prices that I circled and, I, I don't know. The problem is
10:04
i- it's, it's a jammed AFC, right? There's, there's, there's nine teams. We basically just went over seven spots that you feel are pretty, pretty dang good here.
10:12
The Texans, it's one of the ones I did highlight to talk about. The problem is, is that when you have a defense that good, Gil, right? Like, I do think they're gonna be, I think they're gonna be close.
10:24
So I don't know that I'm running to bet their, their no price on a, or, or to miss the playoffs at plus 150. Um, I do like the Jaguars price, but I have them winning the division.
10:33
I actually think I'm gonna end up betting them to, to, just to win the division. So I don't think I will be adding them in the make playoffs market, but I do like that.
10:42
Uh, I just, I just like the longer price of them to win the AFC South. Uh, and then these, the one that, uh, is jumping out to me, Gil, and I think I might bet this, Steelers to miss the playoffs- Oh... minus 160.
10:55
To miss. Yeah, to miss. Yes, to miss. Yeah. So that was the other way I was gonna put this. So let's, let's reverse this. So obviously there's 16 teams in the conference. We touched on nine of them between you and me.
11:05
The seven at the bottom, and we'll do them from best to worst in terms of the market, make, miss. Steelers, Colts, Titans, Browns, Raiders, Jets, Dolphins.
11:17
You and I believe none of those teams is gonna make the playoffs. No. Don't have a chance. Who would you- Yeah... who would you be least surprised by if they did? Uh- Colts... Colts just because of the division.
11:29
Yeah, me too. Yeah. But it should be noted once again, 23 different VSiN personalities did this exercise in the guide.
11:38
Not one single one of the 23 had the Steelers winning the division, which isn't much of a surprise, but didn't have the Steelers even as a wild card. Wow. Which is pretty amazing. Okay. In our VSiN NFL betting guide.
11:52
We'll talk NFC as well, Paul Carr, on the World Cup, coming back on a numbers game right here at VSiN, the sports betting network. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners.
12:04
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12:40
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13:16
Over tw- Three spectacular- Yeah, over 2,200 already signed up for Survivor. Whoa. Yeah. That's ahead of pace, right? I, I think so. It feel, it feels like a lot- I think so... this early.
13:28
Uh, we get tweets beating the book. Uh, Ray in Texas, very pumped about your parlay, by the way, Kelly. Oh, thank you. LFG, he says.
13:34
Um- Forgot to tell, forgot to tell you this off the air, Gil, but, you know, the conversations you and I have of, uh... I, I, I don't think I got a single tweet asking me to repeat any golf bets this week.
13:43
[laughs] I got about five tweets asking me to repeat that parlay, though. Isn't it amazing? It's wild. It's amazing. Tycoon Sports on Twitter, uh, "Than Long is the best.
13:53
Everyone loves crustacean, but few know this spot is better. The jumbo prawns on top of garlic noodles, with a full crab on the side, heaven on earth." Mm. It is absolutely heaven on earth.
14:05
Scrabble Star, "Gil, I've had my fill," uh, uh, parentheses, exclamation point, "of Nathan's dog contests over the years.
14:13
The show I'm waiting for is the one that follows the contestants for a few hours after the competition. Viewer discretion advised. I'm only 30 minutes in today via the Sirius app."
14:22
[laughs] Yeah, I don't wanna watch that. He means... No, I don't wanna watch that either. I, I don't wanna know what happens for th- two days after that contest.
14:30
Kenny Dillingham Sexual, he says, "It's Groundhog Day on a Numbers Game. Gil and Kelly fading the Steelers. See you in the playoffs again, fellas." [laughs] I should not get coupled with Kelly for this.
14:40
[laughs] Kelly is a perennial fader. I am not a perennial fader. I didn't do it last year. I didn't do it last year. I had, I don't believe I had any negative Steelers bets last season. But, like, the s- Um-...
14:50
five seasons before that I did Oh, and, and Golden Horseshoe lets us know, he said, "Phil Mickelson won the 2021 PGA and senior events the same year." So that was the- But that's not exactly what...
15:00
Yeah That was the one that we were try- G- Chris and I were trying to figure out. Okay, good to know. Okay. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, World Cup once again today, the final round of 32 triple header.
15:14
Uh, and that, uh, begins, 'cause remember, these, uh, these times are all staggered from day to day.
15:19
Today's triple header begins at 2:00 PM Eastern, 11:00 AM Pacific, which gives us time to talk to Paul Carr about the triple header today. He joins us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
15:28
The emperor of True Media Networks, Paul Carr. How you doing, Paulie? I'm good. I have a, I have a story that you've sort of inspired here, Gil, with my daughter. Oh, thank you. Story time.
15:38
So she's not a huge sports fan, but she'll de- she'll watch some soccer. She likes the pageantry, all this stuff, and her favorite thing is penalty kicks.
15:45
So I have got her to the point where, "Hey, what are you, what are you hoping to happen in this game? Who are you rooting for?"
15:51
And because she wants penalty kicks, she wants nothing to happen and the game to stay a draw. So I have trained her to say, "I'm rooting against human achievement." Oh, that's awesome. There you go. [laughs] Yeah.
16:02
That is so great. So she was- A Numbers Game classic... she was leaving the house this morning, leaving the house this morning- You know-...
16:06
going to, with her grandma, something, and asking her, "You gonna watch Egypt-Australia?" And she said, "I'm rooting against human achievement in that one." [laughs] So it's great. Making an impact on the youth of today.
16:17
That's right. That's all I can ask for. That's right. Oh, our work is done here. That actually- Yep... makes my day, Paul. Thank you for that story. You bet. Um,
16:25
okay, before we get to your plays, I'll ask you the same thing- Yeah... that we sort of talked with Falica about earlier- Mm-hmm... our buddy Chris Falica, which is
16:33
Portugal, Croatia yesterday, uh, first Ronaldo offsides on what could have been the equalizer by, you know, part of his body. Um- Right... and then obviously Portugal up 2-1.
16:47
First of all, I think the penalty was correct in the box. I think you have to call that. Yeah. Uh, but then- Yeah... Portugal up 2-1, the offside determined by a chip grazing. So the chip comes into play.
16:59
If we don't have that chip, do you agree with me- Mm-hmm... that it probably stands? I didn't see anything on the replay that clearly indicated that the, uh, Croatia guy touched the ball.
17:10
Maybe, but, like, the spin didn't seem to change or anything like that, so I think it would have stood were it not for the chip. Yeah. And do you, do you love that offsides is being called this way?
17:23
Do you as a soccer hardo hate this? Where do you stand? Generally, I'm for it. I mean, 'cause offside is kind of a black-and-white thing.
17:32
It's different than, like, the penalty on Balogun for the US, where there is- Right... obviously a lot of gray area.
17:37
Offside is, I mean, you're offside or you're not, and all the technology is doing is just revealing the margins that were already there.
17:44
So offside with the technology, the chip, the lines, all that doesn't bother me much. Okay.
17:50
Uh, so three games today, Australia-Egypt, Argentina-Cape Verde, Colombia-Ghana to determine the final three spots in the round of 16. You're not touching these with bets? I did come around to one.
18:03
The under in Colombia/Ghana has moved quite a bit. It was around, opened around -150, -160, and now it's -135,- 125. I like it in that range because Ghana is just gonna muck this one up.
18:15
That's what they've done the whole tournament, just real strong defense. Uh, and Colombia, while they're a really good team, they're not necessarily a we're gonna hang five on you type of team.
18:24
So I think Colombia wins this, but one nil, two nil seems right in the wheelhouse. So now that it's -135, or I've seen -125s out this morning, which I played, uh, I do like that in Colombia/Ghana.
18:35
Tell, tell your daughter we are really betting on hu- on- Yeah... you know, going against human achievement in that one. That's right. That's for sure. She'll love it. [laughs] Uh, all right.
18:45
Tomorrow, though, uh, you do like a play in our first of the round of 16 double headers. What do you got? Yeah. We'll start Morocco/Canada, and this is my classic take the better team for goodness' sake here.
18:57
Uh, -120 for a Morocco win or so. Uh, and Morocco's way better than Canada. I know Canada, you know, they blitz Qatar, but that was a nine-man team they were playing. They got by South Africa. That was pretty close.
19:08
Morocco really dominated... Dominated might be a little strong. But they outplayed Netherlands for sure. Uh, and this is a good Morocco team.
19:14
This is, uh, different than they were four years ago where they were kind of the classic underdog. Now they're used to being the favorite. They have better players, better strategy.
19:23
So they're very comfortable with the ball, which they'll have a lot of against Canada. Uh, and Canada's just, you know, battling a lot of injuries. They're not a high-powered team.
19:30
So just taking Morocco to win this one in the 90 minutes is my play here. I got it at -125, I think. Might be a little better number out there.
19:39
What was, uh, Falika's comments when Morocco was, uh, was winning in penalty kicks? He was like, "Can these two teams just play again instead of Morocco-" Oh... having to play Canada?" Yeah. Correct. Yeah. Yeah.
19:48
Give me a best of three Morocco/Netherlands rather than, uh, Canada and South Africa, one of those getting through. All right. And then Sunday, uh, you got a couple plays including Norway/Brazil. Let's start there.
20:00
And can I just say first, like, this slate on Sunday is- Oh, ooh... this is it. Banger. This is the World Cup.
20:05
You got Norway/Brazil, which is, you know, to boil it down, like Erling Haaland against Brazil, and you've got Mexico/England, which is probably the number one game I wanted to see this whole tournament.
20:16
Uh, but I'll start with Norway/Brazil. Yeah, I... Look, I've been fading Brazil and it hasn't worked super well, but they did really struggle against Japan.
20:24
Norway is a little better than Japan, and I still think that Brazil midfield is, we saw it give them a lot of trouble. That's how Japan got their first goal, going right through that. Norway can do the same thing.
20:34
Obviously, they have Erling Haaland, who has played these Brazilian center backs who are pretty good, really good. He's played them a lot and scored against them a lot, so that's not going to intimidate him.
20:42
Uh, just, so I like Norway on the double chance. I got it at -110, I believe. So win or draw, get to the 90 minutes, I think Norway does.
20:51
There's an outside chance Brazil's starting to figure things out and will start rolling, but I haven't totally seen it yet, and until I do, I will probably keep fading them. Let's go. All right.
21:00
And then it- Norway, baby... and then- Fire it up. [laughs] I played both teams- Remember, Paul-... to score, yes, 'cause, uh, Erling Haaland's going to score. I like it. Yeah. I like that. Yeah.
21:09
Paul, if Norway plays the United States in the World Cup final, Kelly's, uh, allegiance- Mm-hmm... is very much up for grabs. Yeah, it is. I know it's- Okay. It is. I, well, I, I hope we run into that problem.
21:19
[laughs] That would be amazing. I hope we do, too. By the way, I love the, the Paul car analogy again extended for the Team USA. We have parred this tournament. It is- Yep... what did you say?
21:29
On the green on a par five and two- Right... currently. Right. Okay. Right. Yeah. Um- So if we do par and go out in the round of 16, it's gonna be a little bit disappointing given all the hype- Yeah...
21:39
and how well they've played. So yeah, it'd be a three putt from, I don't know, 20 feet or something like that. So yeah. We got an eagle look, though. It's- That's what it sounds like. I know. An eagle look. I know.
21:48
They got a shot. Yep. We got an eagle look. For sure. All right. Mexico and England. You said it's the one you're most looking forward to. Can you describe why that is? Can you articulate that for us? Sure. Yes.
21:59
I mean, the first thing is just the history because 1986 World Cup, England played at this same stadium, Estadio Azteca, against Argentina in the quarterfinals, and this is when Diego Maradona scored two of the most iconic goals in soccer history.
22:12
The hand of God, where he punched the ball into the net and it wasn't called, and the goal of the century, where he dribbled around pretty much the whole England team from midfield- Amazing... and scored.
22:21
So it's one of, again, two of the three most famous goals, two most famous goals, whatever, in soccer history were in the same game.
22:28
Uh, so England has all those ghosts that just hang over them, kind of like the smog at Estadio Azteca does, and you've just got England coming into this game.
22:37
From a soccer standpoint, they're going to elevation, they're going to smog, they're going to this cauldron that they have to play in that they don't have to do in Europe.
22:46
Uh, I, I assume Mexico fans were just surrounding the hotel honking whatever they could honk all night, uh- [laughs]... or will be before the game. They're gonna have to deal with that.
22:55
Uh, and this is an England team that has kinda struggled to break down good defenses. Mexico's defense has been pretty solid.
23:01
I mean, you saw the f- way the fans got behind them against the Ecuador, and that was just tremendous to watch. So this is going to be fabulous theater. Uh, I like the draw here. England is a better team.
23:11
Mexico is at home. England's going to be dealing with the elements. I could definitely see this game just dying in the last 15 or 20 minutes when England is gassed and just trying to hang on and get to extra time.
23:21
So I like the draw here. I bet you're on board with this at plus 215. I'm on it. Thank you, Paul. Enjoy. Happy 4th. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:39
This 4th of July, we're bringing back something we rarely do, a multi-year VSiN Pro subscription. Right now, you can get two full years of VSiN Pro for just $299.
23:49
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23:54
You get our NFL season betting guide, daily best bets, real-time betting splits from DraftKings and Circa, AI-powered prop projections, 24/7 video on the VSiN Watch app, and every betting guide, season preview, and VSiN Pro feature we release over the next two years That's 24 months.
24:09
But don't wait, the special 4th of July offer disappears after July 7th. Head to vsin.com/subscribe now to lock in two years of VSI Pro for just $299. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. Um, Gil Alexander in San Francisco.
24:25
Kelly Billin back there in Vegas.
24:26
We, uh, you know, Kelly and I are pretty open with what we're talking about off air, and we started the show by talking about the, uh, association that [laughs] we make between Smash Mouth and s- Smash Mouth and Sugar Ray.
24:38
Yep. Two '90s, uh, bands. Uh, Xavier82 commenting on Noobs being on the show earlier when he brought up Steal My Sunshine by Len.
24:46
He says, "It's crazy y'all bring up Steal My Sunshine, because I just had my 25th high school reunion last Saturday, and we did a music trivia thing during it.
24:54
And one of my few contributions was naming Len as the artist for that banger of a song." And then Noobs chimes in and says, "My only regret today is that I failed to mention this '90s one hit wonder banger."
25:07
Yes, and the crew knows that I love this song, and I also refer to it as a banger. New Radicals, You Get What You Give. I forgot you- Love that song...
25:14
I forgot like nine months ago you wouldn't shut up about this song for like three days. [laughs] It was s- it was stuck in my head for a week. That's right. [laughs] I'm gonna, I'm gonna... You know what?
25:21
I'm still going Len, Steal My Sunshine. I'm gonna power rank these real quick, Gil, for songs, okay? Steal My Sunshine still on top, then the New Radicals, okay? And then- Uh-huh... I don't know.
25:32
The rest, they're only, I don't know who's third. But those are the top 10. I'm gonna go, I'm gonna go New Radicals one, Steal My Sunshine two. Okay. But yes. Mm. Kelly just, by the way, Kelly described that perfectly.
25:40
He wouldn't shut up about it- [laughs]... for three days. Uh, and Rules For Society, "Yo, are your hot dog picks [laughs], are your hot dog picks going to be on the website?" Yes, I think. Right, Kelly? Yes, maybe?
25:52
Gr- that's a great question. I don't know if the website- I don't know... is, uh, s- designed to enter, uh, hot dog picks. I think it is, though. I think they should be up there. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Danny's gonna confirm.
26:03
Standby. [laughs] That's right. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, our next guest, uh, we always love having him on. We never have him on in studio, so we are treated to him.
26:11
Uh, he either is being inducted into the NFL Hall of Fame later today, or he was, uh, alongside Howard Cosell as a Monday Night Football broadcaster at ABC in the '70s and '80s, wearing his beautiful yellow blazer.
26:24
It's Tyler Shoemaker. Tyler, good morning. Hey, good morning. I, I was just telling Kelly I, I busted out a new blazer for you guys today.
26:31
I kn- I know you guys like, like the style, so I busted a new one out for you today. I f- [laughs]... I feel honored, Gil. We, we've had Tyler on a lot of shows.
26:37
I don't remember ever seeing the yellow, and he w- yeah, he confirmed it. It's brand new. [laughs] Brand spanking new. Tyler, so Tyler's here to talk WNBA with us.
26:46
Uh, he is the, uh, creator of the T-Shoe Index, which by the way is also his Twitter handle.
26:51
Um, can you, before we even get into your thoughts about the WNBA, can you just for those who are landing on the league right now and casually are, like, taking in Caitlin Clark information, can we just do a little bit of sports talk radio here?
27:05
And l- uh, can you tell us where, what's the story here with Caitlin Clark with the Indiana Fever? Where do you stand on her as a player?
27:15
W- what's just the general sort of thumbnail about her in her career right now as you see it? Yeah.
27:21
I, I think it's extremely interesting and a little concerning that the, the, both the Fever and the league as a whole kind of don't do more to push her as the, the Michael Jordan of the league.
27:34
I g- I don't think she's the best player in the league, I think that's very clearly A'ja Wilson, but I think as far as marketability and getting eyeballs, I mean, the numbers don't lie.
27:42
All, all of the ratings, all of the top ratings are generally Fever games because of Caitlin Clark. But, uh, yet you'll see her, you know, missing from marketing pieces and, and graphics, and it's, it's bizarre.
27:53
Um, so I think long term, I will be surprised if she finishes her career at Indiana. Oh. Wow. Um, right now the Fever 11 and 8. Uh, just a half game outside of the Liberty and Dream in the Eastern Conference.
28:08
Uh, top of the Eastern Conference standings right now here, um, in the WNBA season. Lynx, by the way, and Aces, the best two teams in the WNBA, both of those are in the West, 15 and 4 and 14 and 5 respectively.
28:21
What is your pecking order, Tyler, in terms of your power rankings of teams right now? Yeah, I mean, I, I think right now we've got
28:29
clearly a, I think there's a clear top three, and that's the Liberty, the Lynx, and the Aces. I think the Dream are, are a half step behind there.
28:36
I th- I think the Dream are a really good team, but I, I think if I had to take, uh, one of the Aces, Liberty, or Lynx versus the field, I'm, I'm definitely taking those, those three to win the championship.
28:48
And when it comes to the Aces specifically, so we saw this with them last year, they went on this terrible run. They were kind of left for dead, and then...
28:57
Well, not really a terrible run, it was just a bad sort of first half of the season.
29:01
And then they went on this unbelievable run, and then that coasted it, and that sort of s- you know, sort of transferred into the playoffs. They end up winning the championship again.
29:11
Is that where we kind of are with the Aces now, where, like, nothing in the regular season really matters ultimately, and that you can still count on them come postseason? I think so.
29:21
I, I, I talk about this a lot in, in all sports, uh, championship fatigue. And when you have teams, you think back to, like, the, the Golden State Warriors of, of the 2015, 2016 era.
29:32
Those type of teams, like the Aces, I think after you've had to climb the mountaintop so many times, like, I think you just get tired and bored with the regular season, and understandably so.
29:42
Uh, I've actually been pleasantly surprised with how well they've played in the regular season so far this year compared to last year, 'cause like you said, last year
29:50
people were kind of ringing some panic, uh, panic alarms about them. But, but this year they've been, they've been very good.
29:55
And, and the numbers show that against playoff teams, their, their game grades, their power rating is even higher. Um, so they, they turn it on when they have to.
30:04
Uh, so I, I definitely, definitely trust the Aces down the stretch. Liberty beat them the other night by eight, but they didn't have A'ja Wilson. Do they have A'ja Wilson?
30:13
Tonight against the Sky She's officially, uh, questionable tonight, but the, the market move tells me that she's probably not gonna play tonight. All right. Well, how, how are you playing this? I, I back the Aces still.
30:23
Even, even with the assumption that she's not going to play, I make the game Aces minus 15 with her. I would make it about minus 10, uh, without her. Uh, I bet it this morning here at Circa at, at seven and a half.
30:36
I think it's dropped even more than that. I'm probably gonna go add, add another unit on it here at, at whatever the, the line is now. I think it was down to maybe six, six and a half, uh, last time I checked.
30:44
So I'm, I'm probably gonna add another unit on, on there, because I, I think the Chicago Sky road numbers are horrific. Uh, they, they've been playing better lately in general, but they've also had a lot of home games.
30:56
Um, I think on the road, I, I think the Aces are gonna win comfortably tonight. See a couple sevens out there currently. I don't see any six and a halves.
31:03
We're still seven and a half here at Circa, but it's 105, so a little bit cheaper on that. Yep. Tyler, have you gotten to the point where you enjoy betting the W more than you do your other sports, like college football?
31:14
Is it on par with those? I do like it.
31:17
I, I think for me, one, definitely compared to, like, the NBA for instance, where, like, load management is such a thing and, and you don't know who's ever gonna, gonna play, even when they're healthy, I think, I think that makes the NBA unattractive to me as, as a bettor.
31:31
In terms of, like, college football, I think there's just, there's so many more games in, in college football compared to the WNBA.
31:37
I like that with the WNBA schedule, you know, I've only gotta really look at two to four games really on, on any given day, and that, I think that allows me to really dive deeper on those games and, and have a better, um, have more conviction with, with the bets that I make.
31:53
Is there any bet right now to win the title, any, any number that you like, uh, value-wise? Is there any MVP bet that you like at this point? No. I mean, we've talked about this before.
32:05
You guys know I'm not, I'm not huge on, on futures. I know you guys are. [laughs] Uh, so I, that's not a market I, I check on daily.
32:11
You know, I'll, I'll take a peek, uh, periodically, but, but right now there's, there's nothing that, that jumped off the board to me.
32:17
Um, I, I was talking with Stormy and JVT yesterday about, um, the sixth, sixth Player of the Year, which is kind of an interesting race in the WNBA, because at one point it looked like Kennedy Carter was a lock for that, and then she kinda got in the doghouse with Becky Hammon perhaps.
32:32
We don't know what the, the deal is there. Um, she's kinda had a short leash there. So I don't think I would bet on Kennedy Carter at this point. I, I'll be curious.
32:40
I don't think Satou Sabally is listed currently, but the Liberty have moved her to the bench, um, and she's been playing phenomenal since they did that. So I'll be curious if she...
32:49
I, you know, I don't know what the qualifications are for sixth Player of the Year, but that's a name that I would, I would keep my eye on, uh, if she enters the market. Satou Sabally. Okay. Uh, that's interesting.
32:58
I love how you're like, "I don't really pay attention to the futures markets like you guys do," [laughs] um, "but here's a sixth Man," [laughs] "here's a sixth Player of the Year, uh, award that might actually be awesome value."
33:08
Okay. We'll, we'll file that away. Um, what, by the way, why are you in town? Maybe I should ask you. Are you just chilling, or are you doing something sports betting-wise? What's going on?
33:17
Yeah, just a, just a little Fourth of July vacation. Uh, my brother flew out here and, and met me, so we're, we're staying here at Circa for the weekend and gonna have a good time. We're going to the Aces game tonight.
33:25
We went to the Aces game, uh, Sunday night against the Fever, which Caitlin Clark has already been ruled out for that game, so that's disappointing.
33:31
Uh, but I, I, I think A'ja's gonna play Sunday, uh, from what it seems like, so excited for that nonetheless. That's awesome. Um, okay, and so the, I, we, we end where we begin.
33:41
So Caitlin Clark, you don't think she's ending her career in Indiana. You think that's an off-season thing this year, as soon as, as early as that? Or you think later? I, I think probably later.
33:52
Uh, I, I, I would be surprised if, if they made a move. Now, if, if she decided to demand a trade this off-season, I wouldn't blame her one bit. Yes. I, I don't know that that's, that's her personality though.
34:02
I, I would be surprised. I think she'll stick it out. I mean, they, they do have a nice, a nice trio there with, with Boston and Mitchell, so I think if they could just
34:10
lean into her a little bit more, I think it could be fine, but, um, I, I don't think, I don't think it's gonna happen. Tyler, thank you so much, man. Appreciate the time. Thanks for coming in. Absolutely.
34:19
Thank you, guys. Tyler Shoemaker, everybody, @TShoeIndex on Twitter. Writes on the website all the time at VSiN.com.
34:27
Coming back on a- [upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:43
Circus football contests are open, and you don't have to live in Las Vegas to play after your required in-person registration.
34:49
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35:00
Schedule your appointment now at winnerscircleproxy.com. By the way, Circa did tweet, we, we were mentioning earlier, I sort of asked out loud, I was like, "Oh, are they ahead of pace?"
35:09
Circa did tweet out yesterday they are ahead of pace in all three of their contests. Ooh. Circa Million, Circa Survivor, Circa Grandissimo, and, uh, what was their, uh, comment?
35:20
"Rumors of our demise have been extremely exaggerated." [laughs] It's Circa- Ah, good tweet... Circa feeling it from, uh, some o- some elsewhere, some other places. That's a good clap back tweet though. I like it. Yeah.
35:33
We get tweets be the book. Your SF Garbage Man, uh, sh- he has a picture, he's the city from the view of South Cities. He's taking a picture of San Francisco. I see you, SF Garbage Man. How you doing, man?
35:44
Good to, uh, thanks for chiming in on the show. Uh, Rick Zabski, VSiN's own, I believe. That's right. Uh, he says, "LFO checking in saying, 'What about us?' Summer Girls."
35:55
That- And you had a great c- you had a great comment, uh, responding to that saying, "Now we're, uh, we're getting a little too close to the boy band." Okay, so no- Right? R- Rick's absolutely right.
36:04
A song that belongs in this conversation, but we, yeah, we are drifting close to '90s boys bands con- conversation now. Yeah. We, we, we're- Yeah...
36:12
we're, we're, we're slowly getting out of the, the '90s pop rock genre here Leisure Suit Kobe: "I remember Texas Roadhouse was taking their sweet time sending a gift box out to Greg Peterson.
36:23
Maybe they accidentally sent it to Greg Peterson's evil twin, Tyler Shoemaker," he says. Disclaimer, I'm sure he's not evil. It's a Friday, all jokes gotta go. It's Friday.
36:31
You know, I did a bad job f- with that, with Tyler coming in studio today. I, you know, he, he, he ha- a- as usual, he'll send me all of his dunking videos or tag me on Twitter whenever he- Yes...
36:41
posts one on, uh, on T- uh, on Twitter. Uh, w- I think it was, like, a week ago, he had, he had one where he broke a rim, Gil. I should, I should- Oh... have pulled that in for today, I know. Are you serious?
36:51
Yes, I, I swear to God.
36:52
Now, now, you, if you go find the video, you will be like, "Well, it, it's kinda like one of those, like, janky garage, uh, or a, a, a, uh, like, standm- standup basketball hoops that people have in their driveway."
37:03
So it's not like he was, like, in some gym pulling down something, but still, he broke a rib. He broke a rib? A, a rib doing it? Rim, rim. Dunked, yes. Rim. And the rim came off. I was gonna say. Yeah.
37:13
That's what I thought you said. Yeah, yeah. Broke a rim, okay. Um, failure on my part to ask you about that. I had no idea.
37:19
Uh, and then J-Rod, this is great when people are listening on delay, [laughs] and they always catch a little comment.
37:24
Uh, this was a great comment by you earlier on the show where we were talking about the hot dog eating contest tomorrow, and you, because you're a ridiculous human being- [laughs]...
37:31
said we should move it indoors, and J-Rod goes, "Just af- laughed out loud at Kelly yelling, 'Move the contest indoors!'" Hey, man, it did- Kelly... it did get delayed a couple years ago because of rain, you know?
37:42
Like, that's, like, uh, that's, that's real. But yeah, well, this, this, this has become one of the biggest topics with the hot dog contest here in recent years.
37:50
It's, "Oh, it's so hot," and how much it affects the eaters. I do l- I do love the delayed response to comments where you're like, "Did anybody catch what was just said on here?" Yeah, yeah.
37:59
[laughs] My, my favorite was, uh, someone, someone tweeting the next day at me when I said, uh, I don't know what I was talking about. I said, "First prize, a day with Todd Wishnev.
38:07
Second prize, two days with Todd Wishnev." [laughs] And somebody after the fact was like, "Hey, I caught that." [laughs] Um, uh, Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest, so here's, let's recap all the bets.
38:18
Tomorrow, Coney Island, Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest, Joey Chestnut going for his 18th victory in this.
38:25
Uh, the way that I'm ending up playing it again, and Kelly had these same ones, I think, so 95 degrees is expected. I'm going Miki Sudo on the ladies' side under 39. Still ladies, right, Kelly? Yeah.
38:37
We can call 'em ladies. Sure. Uh, Miki Su- even though they're pounding hot dogs down their gullets.
38:41
[laughs] Uh, Miki Sudo under 39 is my play on the ladies' side, and then I'm taking Chestnut with Miki Sudo combined under 110. Those are the plays tomorrow in Coney Island.
38:53
Um, what are the chances, 'cause you were just alluding to this off-air, what are the chances we're talking about it right now, but then you wake up tomorrow on July 4th, and you completely forget about this?
39:01
Like, like, I don't, 80%? It, uh, p- I, I swear this is the one- [laughs]... the one sporting event- Yeah...
39:08
the only one I can think of that when it rolls around every year, I, I think, "Man, it kinda sucks we're on the West Coast." 'Cause they start it s- they just start it so early. Yes. And it's cool that- Super early...
39:17
it's Coney Island, noon, you know, they all, the guys get going. But the women even go before that, so you're talking about be, be on your couch and ready to watch, [laughs] watch some bets going at 8:00 AM. Yeah.
39:29
Had one tennis play today, by the way, after our, uh, four and two yesterday with four dogs hitting. Uh, I'm on Barbora Krejcikova minus 3 games versus Nikola Bartunkova.
39:39
Krejcikova has won the first set 6-3, so if we win the second set by any score, we are a winner in that match.
39:48
Of course, if Krejcikova loses the second set, still chance to get it in the third, but a good start to this bet. Krejcikova up three on Bartunkova after one set.
39:58
Um, and then Iga to win it all, 10 to 1, still in play, but Iga takes on Alex Eala in round three tomorrow. That's gonna be a tough one.
40:07
Alex Eala got the best of her in Miami last year outta nowhere, and that sort of started the career of Alex Eala. She's always tough. And then the Red Sox, they've only played one game so far in the month of July.
40:18
Uh, they're O and 1. Still got 'em most wins July, 80 to 1. Let's go, Sox. Let's get this done. Let's play some baseball today. Let's get a win. You, sir. Let's go. All right, we got a lot.
40:31
Danny, where do you wanna start? You wanna start, uh, in order? Okay, soccer, let's go. Uh, I, uh, hey, Chris Felica and Paul Carr send their plays. It w- it was homework for me last night. I don't know about you, Gil.
40:40
I, I sat down for 45 minutes and combed through books and numbers and compared and what did I wanna play for this weekend.
40:46
So I got all my weekend soccer bets are ready to go, starting here with this first game today, Egypt, Australia, draw, +190. Gonna roll with that.
40:55
Felica, I think you're playing it a much smarter way, going Argentina 1-0, 2-0, or 3-0. I'm just gonna land on the 2-0 and roll the dice with that one this afternoon, Gil. That pays out +450, Argentina to win two-nil.
41:08
Uh, Morocco money line, that's tomorrow, -130 against Canada. Riding with Paul on that one. And then I, I w- went away from both of these guys on Norway, Brazil.
41:18
I decided to play both teams to score, yes, -137, and then definitely draw in England, Mexico on Sunday night. Uh, I too today am gonna play the draw in the first and third games as well. Uh, so Egypt, Australia draw.
41:36
Um, by the way, the nil-nil score in that is the lowest I have seen in the tournament, just, uh, $5- Oh, yeah... if you get nil-nil. Yeah, that makes sense.
41:45
Um, and then I'm going Ghana, Colu- um, Columbia tonight, draw +340, um, expecting Ghana to just pack it in as all of our World Cup guests suggested. You also have your hot dog bets, I'm sorry.
41:56
I do, yep, Chestnut, Sudo under 110 and a half. That's the only one I played. I definitely do, I, I lean under on both of the individual ones, but I'm just gonna play the combo one under, under 110 and a half.
42:06
And then, uh, we had our NFL bets here from the la- past few days. Panthers under seven and a half wins for me, Browns under six and a half wins, and then Bills to win the AFC East, -125 All right.
42:20
Uh, and then Kelly's, Kelly's off-the-cuff parlay. Oh, my off- You wanna say that one? Yeah, yeah, off-the-cuff parlay. My Independence Day Eve five-leg parlay.
42:27
Uh, for full transparency, I did not actually bet this, but I got a tweet. So, uh, we did a Sabalenka, but she's already started, right? So like you- you at least gotta lose that leg, or I'm assuming she's started.
42:37
Maybe she hasn't. Sabalenka, Krecjikova- She has, yes. She's up a break. Okay, you're gonna have to, you're gonna have to cross off then one. Becomes a four-legger and it doesn't pay out quite as well.
42:46
Krecjikova money line, Egypt/Australia draw, Argentina money line. You could lay a goal and a half with Argentina. I think that's probably pretty safe, too.
42:53
And then Yankees money line, uh, and that paid out, the five-legger paid out a little over nine to one. You're off to a good start on both Sabalenka and Krecjikova. Off to a good start on both of those.
43:04
Um, okay, and then guests today on the, uh, on the show always like to, uh, recap all of their plays, uh, from earlier. Uh, we started out with Chris Felika. Was Chris our first guest?
43:14
Actually, we had Noop- I can't even remember anymore... we had Noops up first. Noops. And he's laid- Yeah... he laid four, four and a half games with Sabalenka, so that one's al- already underway.
43:23
And then Maria Sakkari I know you said you were looking at as well, right? Money line plus 110 tomorrow- Ooh... against Kalinina. I don't, I don't know about that. That's a tough match. Oh, okay.
43:31
They both over, they, they both overperformed their numbers, so I'd have no idea what to do with it. Gotcha, okay. And then yeah, his two, uh- Yeah...
43:36
his two NBA futures, Hawks and Magic both to win the Southeast Division. And I, you know, Gil, real quick, I didn't get a chance to comment on that. I don't hate those plays at all.
43:45
I do think there are two teams that I- I've been thinking about here the past couple days that I think are gonna be really underrated heading into this season.
43:53
After a season of being overrated, last summer I wanted nothing to do with the Houston Rockets or the Orlando Magic.
44:00
I have a feeling I will be on overs on both their win totals this year, because I think that they, the m- Like we went over those Eastern Conference odds yesterday. The Magic are, what?
44:09
Like 11th in the East right now after we were all sitting here a year ago being like, "Whoa, this team's got all this talent together. Watch out for them."
44:17
I- I think they're gonna be a good play for over their win total this year. Tyler Shoemaker is on the Aces minus the points tonight against the Chicago Sky.
44:25
And then Chris Felika today, tomorrow, Sunday, today at the World Cup, Australia/Egypt, both teams to score, yes. A draw as well at plus 190. Then Argentina/Cape Verde, correct scores.
44:37
Uh, he's got a band of them, one nil, two nil, three nil. Yep. Uh, Colombia/Ghana, under two and a half goals, first half draw, and the draw for the full game.
44:45
Then tomorrow, doubleheader round of 16, Canada/Morocco, first half draw, and, uh, Hakimi over two and a half shots in that game. Then Paraguay/France over one and a half goals in the first half.
44:57
Michael Olise saying one plus goals or assist, and then France to, uh, to win, win to nil. And then Sunday, couple bets in the Brazil/Norway game, England/Mexico.
45:06
He's got three games including the, uh, three bets including the draw, and England to win in penalties at 750, plus 750 in that one.
45:13
Paul Carr with Morocco tomorrow, Norway double chance on Sunday, and Mexico/England draw on Sunday. Prop Points is next. Enjoy from VSiN Sports Betting Network
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