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Jul 4, 2024
A Numbers Game | July 4, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | July 4, 2024 | Hour 1
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44:33
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Oh, Brett changed it up right there then. You hear that?
0:12
Good Thursday morning to you. Not just any Thursday morning, happy Fourth of July everybody, from a numbers game. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Midlin.
0:20
Uh, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, however you're taking us in on this holiday. We are 248 years old. We're symmetrical. 1776, 2024. Symmetrical on the centuries. Uh- You get that?
0:33
24 to that side, 24 to that side. 100- Oh, okay. Yeah, yeah, sure... 200 mil. Sure. But is it, but is it, uh, is it a guy or a gal? Oh- 2020. No, we're feminine today. Feminine today? It's 2024. Okay. Got it.
0:43
Yeah, it's female numbers. Yeah. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, I have now announced my, uh, position on the spectrum to all of you right off the top of the show.
0:49
Some people are like, what the hell are these guys talking about? The greatest nation there ever was. 248 years old. Um, thank you for joining us this morning.
0:57
Uh, wherever you're taking in the fireworks tonight, um, that should be fun. Let me just say this, uh, Vegas temperatures over the next week, Kelly, you ready for this? No, no.
1:05
No, my air conditioning's not gonna survive. Starting- It's not... starting today, 112. Tomorrow 112. Weekend 113. 116 on Sunday, down from what was previously predicted to be 118.
1:18
They don't let the planes land at that point. Yeah. 115 on Monday. 116 again on Tuesday. 115 again on Wednesday. And then it cools off by next Friday to a balmy 109. Oh my gosh. So we'll enjoy that. That's hot.
1:33
But we're- Yeah, I mean, I, I, we hit 113 yesterday. I was driving around in the middle of the afternoon, and I was just- Oh, I don't, I don't, I don't go outside anymore. It's like, it, it's, it's literally become that.
1:41
Yeah. Like, you can't... Like I have, if you could see the inside of my place right now, there are couch cushions up against, like, my sliding glass door to, like, block sunlight.
1:49
It's literally a ca- there's a cave-like effect going on in my place. [laughs] I go, I go outside to come to work. I go outside to go back home. And then, uh, Friday, then I go to California just to drop 45 degrees.
2:01
Yeah. Maybe leave- So anyway... maybe leave me your keys, 'cause, uh- Okay. Sure... my AC was struggling to make it last night. Oh, mine's weren't very good. I'm like, "Oh boy, this is, this might be a long weekend."
2:08
Uh, we do have Crack today. Crack is in full effect. Hour number two, Zach Cohn will be here, so it's Zach and Crack in full effect. Um, first though, before we get into anything, hot dog eating contest.
2:20
I suppose we should talk about the hot dog eating contest, which is happening, um, I guess le- less than 45 minutes from now. Coney Island, Brooklyn. Nathan's Famous. Oh yeah, I always forget that. You're right.
2:30
The women, the women start early. Brooklyn. Is this what they're all proud about in Brooklyn, they're like, "Brooklyn"? It's all about the hot dog eating contest? I, I don't think so. No? Okay.
2:39
Uh, ladies side, Miko Sudo, huge. Miki Sudo, prob- uh, pardon me. Miki Sudo, huge favorite. Minus 900, uh, on Miki Sudo. On Follow the Money yesterday. Check it out. On Follow the Money? Oh, they had her own? Mm-hmm.
2:53
Good. Well, Miki, Miki Sudo, um, for those who don't know, little, you want a little background on some of these folks? Miki Sudo, number three ranked eater in the world by Major League Eating.
3:04
They're the ones that run this whole shebang. Men and women? Number three ranked, yes. She's a- Okay... she's number one ranked female. I was gonna say. Number three ranked overall. How about that?
3:16
She's a nine-time women's champ. She's trying, she's going for her 10th in a row here. She's won every year since 2014.
3:21
It's actually not in a row, because in 2021, uh, she was preggers with her son, so she didn't participate that year. Her personal best, 48 and a half hot dogs and buns. Okay.
3:33
So she, she's, you know, that's her personal best. What, what was that? Was that recent? Do you have the year on that? Uh, that I do not have the year on Miki Sudo. Terrific.
3:41
I can give you much more detail on the men's side here- [laughs]... true about to. I can't...
3:45
[laughs] Um- I mean, that is the, the, the men's side is- The, but look, the next best though is, is Mayo Ibihara, who's five to one. Um, so that- I don't- So Miki Sudo is just a huge favorite on the men's side.
3:58
I, I feel like she's been a huge favorite for years now. I, I don't know that I...
4:01
Like, when I was typing this up this morning, I don't know if I remember actually someone that clo- like, a clear second that close to her anyone. I mean, that's, is that really a clear second?
4:09
I guess it's a clear second 'cause third place is 40 to one. It's a clear second, yeah. Yeah. Uh, men's side, I'm actually gonna recommend a couple bets on the men's side. How about that? Oh, there we go.
4:17
[laughs] How about that? There we go, Gil. [laughs] I recommend. So the favorite on the men's side, Geoffrey Espeur, 49 years old, minus 120 favorite. Very short favorite.
4:26
Uh, I don't know if you know this, Kelly, but he's finished second at this event each of the past three years. We got him at minus 115 up at DraftKings up to the minute.
4:34
Second in this event each of the past three years, and of course Joey Chestnut is not here to block him, so that's why he's the favorite. His personal best is 51 hot dogs. Last year though, 49. Keep that in mind.
4:46
Trajectory here I would imagine matters. This is my vast hot dog eating contest knowledge. I think if you're on the de- if you're going down, if you're going backwards, it's not a good thing.
4:56
James Webb is 35 years old, 14 years younger. He's a two to one dog. Actually, he's now shortened to plus 165. This is the guy I would bet here. This is just his third time doing the hot dogs.
5:09
His personal best is 47 and a half. Last year is when he did it, when he finished third. So he's 14 years younger. Espeur's on the, is coming backwards, coming back towards him.
5:20
I think Webb, who, like, basically just showed up and is knocking out 47 and a half of these, that's probably the play. I have one more play. I like that. I like, that makes sense.
5:28
I'd ra- I'd rather bet on a gu- a guy like that with, that's a little bit more wild card-ish than, you know, someone that's been there time, year after year after year. I believe he's Australian.
5:37
He, he, just a few weeks ago, just to give you an idea, so these guys don't just do hot dog eating contests. No, it's everything, yeah. James Webb- They gotta make a paycheck.
5:44
Yeah, just a few weeks ago, he won the Salvation Army National Donut Day by downing 70 glazed donuts in 10 minutes. [laughs] Yeah. Oh, man.
5:54
By the way, I think, uh, our, I think our girl, uh, Miki- The first seven were probably great... Miki did better than that by the way, so he was just showing up and doing 70 in 10 minutes. Okay.
6:03
Uh, Nick Wehry, age 35, is the, uh, third shot, plus 550. Now he is engaged to Miki Sudo.
6:09
Which to me, I'm having trouble removing myself from thinking that when they got engaged, they had food chewed up just coming out of their mouths. [laughs] He engaged. He, he asked her to, to get married.
6:22
She said yes, and then they made out with food just sprawled all over their face. But also, like, what's the past, like, month or two been like in that household? Like, that's just gotta be- Just disgusting. Yeah.
6:31
Anyway, uh, Nick Wehry. Sorry, can't get that image out of my head. Plus 550 here. He's, he's, they're, they're both from Tampa.
6:38
He's the number four ranked eater in the world by Major League Eating, so right behind his wife overall. Uh, it'll be his seventh appearance in the competition. He's finished fourth at the event the last two seasons.
6:50
His personal best is 48 hot dogs and buns. Now, he's also, in addition to being engaged to Miki Sudo, he's also participated. He holds a couple world records. No, one world record. These are always fun. Yeah.
7:02
He has a world- You, whatever their specialty's at, yeah. What do we got? Okay, he's got the world record in eating hard-boiled eggs. Oh, God. [laughs] That is so gross.
7:12
Ladies and gentlemen, the most disgusting segment- Oh, my God... in the history of a Numbers Game. Well, well, okay, that is more disgusting than me drinking a large amount of eggnog. Would you- Uh. No, no? Eh, maybe.
7:22
Oh, I find that- Yeah... I, I find that way grosser. 'Cause you, well you, well you could take your time with the eggnog. I could take my time, yeah. Like, you gotta pop egg after egg.
7:29
How much time do you think it took him in his world record to eat 50 hard-boiled eggs? Three minutes. Three minutes and four seconds. Wow. Fitty. Bro. Can I call you bro? Yeah. All right. He's also...
7:43
Now, [laughs] this is where it gets ridiculous. This is Nick Wehry. This is, again, Miki Sudo's, uh, uh, husband to be, fiance, who, uh, is the third short shot. He's not gonna win this, by the way.
7:55
I would go under on Nick Wehry, by the way. Oh, okay. I would because he, like two years ago, he topped out at 40 dogs. Uh, the year before that he was 44 and a half. I think his number's 44 and a half.
8:06
This sounds like a s- it sounds like you should go under on him. I, I don't know. Like, I, I, I think I'm way overthinking this now, though. Yeah. Like, how does this not...
8:14
Y- there has to be a mental effect when Joey Chestnut's, Chestnut's not in the field anymore.
8:20
It's like when Dominic Thiem and Sascha Zverev played in the US Open final because it was the year where Nadal, Federer, and Djokovic, remember that was the year Djokovic- Yeah... hit the ball, woman with a, with a ball.
8:30
Yeah, yeah. With a tennis ball, so they disqualified him. It was that year where they, you, these guys have gotta be thinking, "This is our chance." The, the, and that, that's what I'm saying.
8:37
Like, I'm not, I'm not, not arguing your bet, but I'm like, I feel like all these guys that have been there before, I, I think we could see higher numbers because you're like, "Okay, good, Tiger Woods isn't here anymore."
8:48
Yeah. "I actually have a chance to win." Do you realize I've sneaky gave out two bets here? Yeah, it's hilarious. Nick- I was not expecting it... uh, James Webb to win this at plus money. He's the second shot.
8:56
And w- and under on Nick Wehry. But here's the thing. In addition to holding the world record for eating 50 hard-boiled eggs in three minutes and four seconds [laughs] which is disgusting- Yeah, give me another one.
9:05
I, I could go through these for like 30 minutes, they're so gross... he is also the Cuban sandwich eating champion. Ooh, that just sounds good. Let me just ask you a question. Like, you can standardize hot dogs.
9:15
You can s- you know, hard-boiled eggs are hard-boiled eggs. When you order Cuban sandwiches, they come in all kinds of varieties. They do. So, like, what do we, what do we go with?
9:24
Also, I'm a mayo guy instead of mustard on my, uh, Cuban. Right.
9:26
Like, if, yeah, what if I was like, "I'd like to do a, uh, breakfast burrito with tater tots without avocado eating contest," 'cause I think I could do well on that. Like, you can be really specific at this point.
9:35
[laughs] So he, he's got the, he's got the Cuban sandwich eating record, having [laughs] eaten 22 of them in eight minutes. Oh, man.
9:44
Well, that one's tough to judge 'cause w- what, what, what si- what size are we working with here on the Cuban sandwich? You know what I mean? That's what I'm saying. I guess they have to standardize them somehow.
9:52
Yeah, they, yeah. And the, and the s- and you c- the problem is, is like you have to have mustard in a Cuban sandwich either, otherwise it's not mustard, right?
10:00
And you have to properly, you know, you've gotta standardize the dollop. Yeah, man. These, these are complicated issues we're tackling. By the way, mustard, like this is
10:09
like o- one of those things about me that nowhere near mustard. I find mustard so disgusting. All mustards. Like, in all forms. All mustards. Yeah, all mustards. Don't be the guy who ever...
10:18
Eh, I get this guy all the time. "Even honey mustard?" Even dijon. You're like, "Yes, yes, all mustards." [laughs] It tastes like mustard. It's disgusting. Even Grey Poupon. Um, so there you go.
10:28
Two bets, James Webb on the men's side plus 165, and under on Nick Wehry, sorry. I, I believe Darion Thomas is the guy I...
10:36
Th- there's, sorry, there's a lot of, there's a lot of pandemic CO- you know, COVID memories we have from gambling, you know? Yeah. And it was, uh, uh, I believe it was Darion Thomas.
10:45
Remember they did one of these, like, Major League Eating events that was all, like, everybody was at home and they had to, like, go up against each other? I've [laughs] almost- I, uh, blocked that out.
10:54
Yeah, all I- I don't remember it at all. We all, we broke it down hard on Follow the Money while we were i- [laughs]... in the middle of the pandemic. I'm sure you guys did.
10:59
And all I remember is Mitch and I, Mitch and I making a bet on the, on the under the amount of time that Darion Thomas would consume baked beans. It was a gallon of baked beans. Ah.
11:10
But like, but the thought was, Gil, Mitch and I are both like, "Wait, wha... Like, it's baked beans. Don't you, wouldn't you just kinda like spoon and drink those?" Yeah, what does he do?
11:18
And it was like a long, it was like a couple minutes or something that they were giving. He went way under.
11:22
It was like one of the greatest bets I've ever made 'cause that's what he did, just picked up the tub and started drinking it.
11:27
I think it's appropriate to make the comment right now, you should not follow him home afterwards. Yes. [laughs] Yes. You remember when JVT tried to eat the hot dogs? Oh, yeah. Remember? That's, that's banned.
11:36
Bill Adee famously saying he would rather- No... have an alligator in the studio.
11:39
No, no, no, but there was one outside of the studio where he was legitimately trying to do it the first year at VSIN, and you could see it in his eyes when he crashed. We're coming back baseball on the other side.
11:49
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSIN, the sports betting network. Numbers game proudly brought to you by Bar Canada the D and by DraftKings.
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13:01
Get instant access to our all new NFL betting guide. That's VSiN.com/subscribe. Gil Alexander and Kelly Bidlan. Uh, tennis plays that have not begun today. Ready for this? Uh- What you got, Broseph?
13:16
On the men's side, I will give you again a, I will give you the prices that we gave out at VSiN.com, that I gave out at VSiN.com/picks last night. Every host, every guest, every sport, uh, all at VSiN.com/picks.
13:29
Everybody's bets can be found there. That is for subscribers. Um, and last night I put out, uh, my four. Uh, we're trying to split here in the morning.
13:39
Still to come on the men's side, and I'll get the, uh, the exact prices right now. On the men's side, I am on Lucas Pouille. Lucas Pouille is the French. Let me spell that for you. Lucas P-O-U-I-L-L-E.
13:56
Lucas Pouille is, I believe, how you pronounce that in French. Yeah. Of course, you know. Uh, I got him- Or Poo- Poo- Pouille. No, it's Pouille. Pouille in, uh, American English. [laughs] Pouille.
14:09
Uh, I got him at plus 164 last night against Thanasi Kokkinakis, who of course is Australian [laughs] with a Greek name. Um- [laughs] Pouille, is he still, uh, is he still scheduled? Yes. He's at plus 150- Plus 160...
14:23
plus 152, I'm seeing. Okay. 165 at DraftKings. Um, you could still play him. Oh, plus 165, great. Shop around. So you could still get him almost at the price that I got him. Uh, even better by a penny.
14:33
So Pouille is the first play. I think he's, I think that's a way mispriced match. Um, I think he can take down Kokkinakis. And then, uh, this is a way long shot on the ladies' side. I'm taking a flyer on Elina Aveysan.
14:49
I don't know if that... Avana- Avana- excuse me, Avanesyan. Avanesyan. Against Ludmilla Samsonova. Samsonova. Um, Samsonova is actually how, is how you actually pronounce that, but we are fading Samsonova. Really? Yes.
15:03
I did not know that. Yeah. So it's- Plus 310 on Elina over at DraftKings. Okay. And I got her at, at a little less than that, plus 280. So yeah. So Pouille and Avanesyan, those are your plays.
15:16
Two big dogs coming up at Wimbledon, which is just awesome to have on during the Fourth of July. Yes, it is. All day long, baseball all day long as well.
15:24
Speaking of baseball, by the way, uh, before we get to baseball, Sweet Lou Finnicaro has chimed in. Uh, he says, "Bertoletti coming out of retirement plus 750 at DK in the hot dog eating contest."
15:37
He goes, "That's my lean. Those Italians can chow." See, that makes a lot of sense to me. That's a guy who's got, he got tired of getting beat, beaten up by, uh, Joey Chestnut for years, and he sees his window back open.
15:49
That's right. So he's coming out of retirement. That's a good call. I think that makes sense, Lou. Bertoletti plus 750- Bertoletti... is the call from Lou Finnicaro, who also says, "Tell Kelly I put mustard on anything."
15:59
Gross. Little mustard war you guys are having. Yep. Um- Mustard's gross. Mustard's gross, you said? Yeah? Yep. You think so? The, the, by the way, just cleaning up.
16:07
So the JVT thing, this was outside of the South Point studio, like the first year of VSiN.
16:12
JVT was, I think it was hot dogs, where he was trying to eat as many hot dogs as he could in a certain amount of time, and literally, like you could see it in his eyes when he got to...
16:21
He, he could correct me on this, but it wa- it was still single digits. I thought it was like five or something. Uh, maybe it was more than that, but it was still single digits, and I, you could see it.
16:29
You're like, "Uh, he's done." You, how much, how much could you do? [laughs] Wait, so what was the, what was the store? Was it him and Greg that were doing one, though? That, I think that was an- In studio?...
16:38
in studio thing, where then it got banned That's what built it, yeah, built it like that. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Can't do that stuff on camera. Can't have a reversal in studio. No, no, can't do that. [laughs] A reversal.
16:45
Is that what they call it, right? A reversal. Reversal? I love that. [laughs] We've had a reversal. Uh- How many could I eat in 10 minutes? How many? In 10 minutes? You, Kelly Bidlin.
16:55
I, I could down three in 10 minutes, I think. Oh, dude, come on, of course you could down three. I don't, like it's, but I'm not doing like- If I set it at seven and a half- I'm not du-... could you go over that?
17:03
I'm not dunking buns in water and stuff, you know what I mean? Like I'm gonna eat a hot dog. Seven and a half, over or under? Uh, there's no way I could eat eight hot dogs in 10 minutes. Yeah, I'd go under on that.
17:11
I could get to eight, if you gave me, if I was s- if I was starving and I had an hour, I think I could do eight. Okay. Wow. Not, not 10 minutes though. No, that's gross. Yeah. All right.
17:23
Uh, Mark Borchardt and I did a, uh, Q2 baseball pod yesterday, Beating the Book: MLB Derivatives. We do it every quarter, after 40 games, after 80 games, after 120, and we have done this for over a decade.
17:36
So if you do the math, I think we've done about 40 of these in our lifetime. Wow. And we love it. It's just, we nerd out on baseball stats. We do, we do, you know, the standard one that we'll show just on the screen.
17:47
Obviously, we do best ROI teams, uh, in Major League Baseball. These are your, these, you know, bizarro exercise if you bet each team every single game, whether they're a favorite or a dog.
17:58
You know, you bet $100 if they're a dog, you bet 100 if they're a favorite. That's the thing about the favorite. Some people calculate differently. Bet 100 or bet to win 100.
18:06
That's why you have some variance or some difference with, with some charts on this. But the Guardians, the most profitable team by a good margin if you, you know, in this bizarro exercise.
18:16
And the point of the whole podcast is not to just, "Hey, look at all these stats," it's to try to determine what is predictive, what is sustainable, what is unsustainable.
18:24
And probably the s- you know, the single biggest thing we un- you know, we... It's not that we uncovered it, but we sort of realized going through these. 'Cause we go through...
18:36
I, I recommend everybody who's a baseball hardo to listen to the podcast because we go through umpire stats, who are the most reliable over, um, uh, over and under umpires in Major League Baseball when they're behind home plate calling balls and strikes.
18:48
And it's not just a this year thing. Mark has historical data, so we don't just rely on the 80 game sample size. We see if they match with his historical data.
18:57
So we uncovered one very reliable over umpire, one very reliable under umpire, which they're doing their thing this year, basically. That's great. Yeah.
19:05
'Cause yeah, if you could tra- if you could see some guys been- Oh... doing that for, you know, over the course of four years, then yeah. Yeah.
19:11
It's something you, it's something you could start to pay attention to, for sure.
19:13
Yeah, the, the over umpire probably has a, you know, a strike zone the size of a thimble, and the under umpire has, you know, vast strike zone. Right. [laughs] Yeah. Um, so there's that.
19:21
We also do first innings, which you won't find anywhere else. Those are proprietary. We talk about the pitchers that are the best and the worst in first innings, 'cause people like to bet first innings. Mm-hmm.
19:31
Uh, the Yourfees and the Nerfees they call it now. Mm-hmm. Um, the kids, so cute. They're adorable with their names. Um, and then, um, biggest thing we found though, 'cause we do first fives, right?
19:42
And by the way, vsin.com, can I just shout out vsin.com? Whenever we do the vsin.com promo, we're talking about betting splits and betting by state and all these articles. It has great, robust baseball stats now, right?
19:55
So it, uh, there's a bit of an umpire tracker there as well, not historically, but this year. Uh, and we do, and on vsin.com, there's best first five and worst first five teams.
20:05
Same thing for the full game, but also, you know, what's their record, win, loss, and draw first five.
20:11
And so this year, you will see as we put it up at vsin.com here, uh, Phillies are number one, makes sense, by a mile, because they have, think about their top three in their starting rotation, Wheeler, Nola, and Suarez.
20:23
So it makes sense why they are literally, if you bet the Phillies every single game this year, first five, whether favorite or dog, you'd be up 20 units just doing that. 20 plus units. It's wild. Yep.
20:34
The next closest is the Guardians, who are n- just over nine units up. But the outlier there, as you can see, is in the number four position, 'cause it's Phillies, Guardians, Orioles.
20:42
The Yankees are in fifth, and looky here. Look who's in fourth. That's crazy. The Chicago White Sox. The Chicago White Sox are... So just think about this.
20:52
I'm actually impressed with just their overall first five record. Well, that's, that's the point. Right. Yeah. So this is the point of why we do this thing. So- And then obviously they're a dog a lot.
21:01
Well, and they're a dog a lot. So this is the point. They, in real life, right, in obvious, in the, in the real life Major League Baseball standings, even though the White Sox...
21:09
By the way, the White Sox are the Guardian's kryptonite. They beat them again last night, crushed them. It's incredible how the White Sox have the Guardian's number.
21:16
But the White Sox in real life, even with that win last night, 25 and 63. I mean, they have a minus 157 run differential, and that's after winning by six last night.
21:27
[laughs] They're horrible at baseball, but- That's, that's incredible... but first five, they are 35 and 41. Excuse me, 35, 41, and 11. And as Kelly said, they're always a dog, right? Maybe every time.
21:42
So 35, 41, and 11, you'd be up six and a half units betting them first five. Now, here's the even bigger thing we talked about. God, that bullpen just has to be awful.
21:51
There are, the bull- that's the, that's the- Awful... that's the takeaway, right? The bullpen sucks and everybody knows it sucks. Like, you're a near 500 team in the first five innings. But here's the point, Kelly.
22:00
There are some sports books that offer double results, like- Oh... soccer, right? For who's gonna win at halftime- Yeah, yeah... who's gonna win full game. Baseball has the equivalent at some sportbook, sports books.
22:11
Who's gonna win at, who's gonna be leading after first five? Who's gonna be leading after the game? The White Sox have hit the double result of leading after five- Leading and losing...
22:21
and losing 16 different times this year. That's awesome. The average price on those 16 is, like, seven to one. Yeah, yeah. Sure.
22:30
So if you just hit all of those, right, if you bet that blindly, you'd be up the s- the 16 that you hit would be up over 100 units, and then you'd lose all the others. You wouldn't even care 'cause you'd be so far up.
22:41
Yeah. Is that sustainable? It kind of sounds like it is. That was a big takeaway from that. Zach Cohen on the other side. Tennis next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:54
Back on the numbers game, live from Barcanada, The Barrage, right here at the D. It's Gil Alexander, it is Kelly Midland, producer number nine, so much more than a producer. Happy Fourth of July, everybody.
23:04
Whatever you do, be safe with your fireworks. How's that for a PSA? Yeah. Is that okay? Yeah, yeah. We get tweet- And keep in mind the dogs, the poor dogs out there. The poor dogs. Feel so bad for them.
23:14
They don't enjoy this. I don't know why I'm saying keep in mind, though. Nobody's gonna keep that in mind. They should. We get tweets at Beating The Book.
23:20
This is Anthony Sween who says, "You think Esper stepped off the gas last year when getting destroyed by Jaws? Maybe that explains the decline.
23:28
And what is a, quote, unquote, 'reversal of fortune' in the contest, plus 300 right now? Why not a total dogs in the [laughs] month of July bet while you're at it?" [laughs] Yes.
23:37
Is, uh, is Circa or William Hill Caesars offering a total months, a total month bet? 'Cause I'm, I, I might be able to nail that one.
23:44
Uh, Jamie Leyva, or Jaime Leyva, "Dropping, quote, 'standardized dollop' in the first segment, first sign of a great day. Happy Fourth, gentlemen." You too.
23:53
Uh, this is John Balducci, "Please continue with sports, and then at some point, please quickly let us know why they don't land planes when it's 1:15. We don't have that problem in Rochester."
24:01
My understanding is there's a- Oh, this blows my mind. Yeah... the rubber on the tires when you- Correct... when you land could explode, and it becomes unsafe. I, I, I believe that is the explanation I've heard as well.
24:12
Yes. I, I believe it applies to d- to planes taking off, too. Like, I think there's delays when you're trying to get out of Vegas because of that, too. Yeah. Oh, is that, is that right as well? Did, uh...
24:20
I wanna get to the, uh To the bottom of that. But I think we're correct on that. Uh, this is from Jas- Good one from CJ...
24:27
JasonH11, "I love trying to pronounce these tennis players' names and then have Gilly give the actual pronunciation and then see how badly I butcher the player's name." [laughs] Yeah.
24:34
[laughs] Jeremiah Westgate, which is his real name. "Gil, thank you for the inside scoop on Misaki Sudo and Nick Wary making out with food in their mouths. I had prepared a delicious bacon, egg, and cheese- [laughs]...
24:43
on an English muffin that I no longer wish to eat. My dog thanks you, too." Hey, you're very welcome. You're quite welcome. English muffins alfer- also overrated. Uh- Throw that on a bagel, that sounds great.
24:54
I like an English muffin. Yeah. SteveTheProxy, uh, yeah, he says his recollection was Greg Peterson almost died off of, I think, five Dogs in Studio to ban all future dog-offs. Someone should tweet out that video.
25:05
Oh, man. Also, he says, "I need a throwback to those humans versus Greg generational gap segments, which were absolute gold. Happy Fourth [laughs] and stay cool, fellas." The, the segments with Greg were always great.
25:15
Yeah, they were. They were. I used to go, "Abilene Christian, go." And then he would just give like a- [laughs]... five-minute diatribe on every player on Abilene Christian. Here, here. Could have been lying.
25:22
He was nine deep on the roster. [laughs] Could have been lying to him. I have no idea. Uh, this is from CJ, "Could Kelly do this? The 9-9-9 challenge is simple.
25:31
You eat nine hot dogs, drink nine beers, and do it during a baseball game, so for nine innings." Could you do that? Nine hot dogs, nine beers, nine innings. That, that's a good challenge right there. Hungry enough,
25:42
I think I could, Gil. [smacks lips] And are we ta- we, are we talking, like, regular poor beers? We can't go, like, ballpark tall beers. Yeah, you gotta s- you gotta get the rules in advance. Yeah, I gotta get the rules.
25:51
Yeah. I think I could do that, though. That's a hard maybe, CJ. That's a hard maybe from Kelly. Zach Cohen is kind enough to wake up Fourth of July morning with us, courtesy of the Progressive guest line.
26:00
Senior writer here at VSiN, and of course, along with Adam Burke, the glue that holds the whole operation together. You can follow him at BettingonX. What's happening, Zach? How you doing, man? Pretty good. I've been up.
26:11
I've been watching, uh, I had to wake up to see Stan Wawrinka hold one service game to cover four and a half games, because- There you go... they were postponed from yesterday. There you go.
26:19
This i- this is, you know, lesson number five bajillion why sports betting is such a, a, uh, puzzle and such a, uh, a mind meld, if you will. Pick another word besides meld, if you'd like. But
26:32
I'm g- I w- I'm running bad, and so, you know, my numbers are like, well, Wang Xinru. Wang Xinru against Jessie Pegula. Her grass numbers are unbelievable. Talking about Wang Xinru.
26:47
But because I'm running bad, I'm just gonna play conservatively and not touch it, and here she is about to knock out Jessie Pegula, though five-love second set. She's about to get broken to go 5-2 here, perhaps.
27:02
So hold everything. But I'm just saying, like, this- Yeah... these are the so many things, and now if I'm running good, Zach, maybe I play it, you know what I mean? Yep.
27:11
A- and I, and I will say, we, we have learned this tournament that a 5-0 lead is not safe. That's right. I think we've seen a few comebacks so far. So, hey, maybe, maybe it's not gonna be over yet.
27:19
Yeah, uh, To- uh, Tomas Makac, who I am fading right now with Roman Safiullin, uh, he actually came back from five-love against David Goffin to win it. You don't often see that.
27:30
Uh, and you see it less so on the men's side than you do on the ladies' side. We once won a Katie Volynets match many, uh, couple years ago when she was down five-love in a final set. What did you land on today?
27:40
What bets do you still have going? I still have a few that haven't started yet. So I'll st- I'll start with those. I have Cam Norrie plus four and a half games against Jack Draper.
27:49
Uh, you could probably get that at plus five and a half with not too bad of juice, and I do prefer that number, so I would definitely look into that.
27:55
I just think it's a really weird situation where Norrie's an older player from the same country. I think he's going to feel like he really should win that match.
28:02
He's 2-0 against Draper at the ATP level, and I just think there's going to be a fire in him. Just, you know, from Draper having overtaken British world number one, goes into the match as a favorite.
28:11
Norrie's a guy that I really like to back as an underdog. Uh, also Draper coming off a five-set match. He's a guy with fitness concerns.
28:19
Uh, so I do think there's a chance if it goes to the fourth or fifth set, he's gonna tire out a little bit, and Norrie's, you know, one of the feistiest competitors in the sport.
28:25
I think he's going to be able to get a lot of balls back, you know, ask a lot of questions of Draper, and potentially win that match. I love that. Tennis is the only sport that does that.
28:32
Ask a lot of questions of your opponent. Yeah. [laughs] No, you, we don't say that in football. "Boy, that Tom Brady is asking a lot of questions of the opponent."
28:39
By the way, Nor- Norrie's historical grass numbers, for what they're worth, are actually better than Draper's, right? So that would corroborate as well. What else?
28:48
I have over three and a half sets in, uh, Emil Ruusuvuori against Stefanos Tsitsipas. Tsitsipas is a player that really should be good on grass. He has a big serve, really big forehand.
28:58
Uh, the backhand shouldn't be as big of a weakness. You know, we see guys like Matteo Berrettini, they just kind of chip and slice that backhand on this surface effectively. Tsitsipas can't do it.
29:07
Uh, not very comfortable with the serve on this surface as much as he is elsewhere, and his net game, I guess, just isn't good enough.
29:13
So I think that this is a match that I'd be really surprised if it doesn't go four or five sets. Ruusuvuori, uh, a really powerful baseline player, has the ability to just really outmuscle anybody.
29:22
So I think he's going to look like he belongs in a match against Tsitsipas, especially on this surface.
29:26
Tsitsipas only 22 and 17 on grass in his career, so I'd be really surprised if this is a straight set match either way. I, uh, I stay away from all Emil Ruusuvuori matches because he is my Ervin Santana.
29:37
I have said many times Ervin Santana was the pitcher, when I backed him, he was terrible. He would get shelled. When I would fade him, he would be Cy Young.
29:45
Emil Ruusuvuori is that guy for me, and the other day I faded him, and he won a five-setter. Who, who did he play again? Whoever I bet lost against Ruusuvuori. He won a five-setter against me.
29:57
Ruusuvuori w- won two tiebreakers 8-6. It's just, it's just uncanny. When it, when it rains, it pours. Plus he has, like, five Us in his name. True. And he is, and he's four, four, four Us in his name. Yeah, Ruusuvuori.
30:08
Finnish, by the way, Kelly. I don't know if you know that. Finnish. That's where he's from. Two Ns. Finland. He's from Finland. Okay, third, what do you got?
30:15
Uh, the final one is Marcos Giron plus two and a half sets against Alexander Zverev. This is another one where, you know, Zverev really should be very good on grass.
30:23
He's solid on grass, but he has the lowest winning percentage on this surface as he does on any of the three. Uh, I think that Giron is a really good fast court player.
30:32
Uh, they actually played at the 2021 Australian Open, and Giron won on a set there. That's not a grass court, but it's, you know, as fast as it gets for a hard court.
30:39
So I do think he has the ability to kind of give Zverev some trouble here. The s- you know, the surfaces makes Giron a little bit more of a dangerous server, which he needs.
30:47
He's not a very good server, but he's a really good defensive player, but also has a really big forehead. Like, he can hit a lot of winners when he is hitting well.
30:54
So I do think there's a chance that he's going to push this match to four or five sets as well. And this update, Jessie Pegula goes down, uh, to Wang Xinyu, and, uh, that was a big upset, at least by the betting market.
31:06
Uh, Kelly, what do you say after every time Pegula loses in a tournament? She gonna be able to make rent? [laughs] Like, is she gonna be okay? She's- A little conc- I'm always concerned when this happens, Gil.
31:15
You know that. She should be, she should be okay. She'll be okay? We're gonna check on her finances, but she should be okay. Uh, the joke here, Jessie Pegula is the, uh, is a billionheiress.
31:23
She is the heiress to a, uh, family fortune of seven and a half billion dollars. Oh, yeah. We- Her dad owns the S- Buffalo Sabres and the Buffalo Bills. Gil and I rechecked the numbers this morning.
31:32
Seven and a half bill. Yes, which makes Emma Navarro look like a pauper because her dad merely is worth 1.5 billion. Stepping up. A pauper. Step it up, Emma's dad. If you... [laughs] That's right.
31:44
There was an interview with Pegula, by the way, where she was like, "You know, I am rich on my own." It's true. She's like, she's like won like $25 million or something. Sounds true, yeah. [laughs] You know what?
31:52
Absolutely. Both, both of these, I, I... We should absolutely say that, 'cause I- these girls deserve all the...
31:58
I, listen, I know they probably had the best lessons they could get, and they probably were at a country club where they get play- Sure, sure... from the age of three. But you still gotta be good. Yes.
32:04
But she still ended up being, like, a top 10 player in the world, and, in Jessie's case, top five. And in Navarro's, I, I don't know what she is ranked, but top 20 for sure. So it's like, still, come on.
32:15
[laughs] Good for them. And Jessie's right. She's, she's still rich on her own. I'm glad she said that. That's great. [laughs] Yeah.
32:19
Uh, bottom line then here, Zach, for, for this tournament right now, because I, I said as, as, as uneven as the matches are going, the futures on my end look great so far.
32:29
Is there anything you've seen where you're like, "Well, I don't know if this is gonna happen," or, or are you more sort of solidified in what your pre-flop thoughts were?
32:38
I mean, I gotta say, like, I, I see all these people on Twitter being like, "There's no way Novak Djokovic had surgery. He's faking it."
32:44
And I know that they're crazy, but at the same time, I'm watching him play, and he looks awesome.
32:47
So it's, it's frustrating, like, you know, that I'd second-guessed him going into the tournament because he does have a really easy draw.
32:53
I think if he doesn't lose this next match against, is it gonna be Ruud or, uh, Khachanov? Like, like, he's gonna probably go to the semifinals. Oh, yeah. Uh, I don't know if you know this.
33:02
He's pretty good at tennis, this Novak guy. Yeah. Yeah, going for his, uh, 25th s- no, pardon me, going for his, yes, going for his 25th, uh, Grand Slam singles title.
33:10
He is in a, I guess, the way he's, he's power- already number one on the men's side. Margaret Court has 24 on the women's side, so that would break that tie if you're looking for a record to sort of manufacture there.
33:22
Zach, thank you. Happy Fourth of July. Be safe, and, uh, take care of that dog of yours as well. You too, guys. Enjoy. Zach Cohen. Betting on X on Twitter. We'll come back.
33:33
Triple Crown props in Major League Baseball are out. We'll take a brief look at those on the other side. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:40
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. And make this NFL season your best ever with our all-new VSiN NFL Betting Guide.
33:58
The guide is packed with everything you need to bet the NFL smarter, including in-depth previews of all 32 teams with win-total projections for every team, new quarterback and head coach breakdowns, Super Bowl predictions, a prop betting guide, plus best futures bets from the VSiN experts, including MVP, Rookie of the Year, and Coach of the Year awards.
34:14
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34:23
That's V-S-I-N.com/guide. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin. Hey, uh, Taylor, if we could just go back to where we had it, that would be better than, than what I'm getting right now. I'd appreciate it.
34:34
Uh, in the ears. Uh, we get tweets at Beating the... We get texts and tweets, by the way, Kelly. Uh, texts. This is from Mike Montesano, who won the, uh, Circa Booby Prize the first year.
34:44
He said, "The significant others," thank you, Taylor, "The significant others of the men and women participating in the hot dog eating contest must be so proud, LOL." [laughs] So great.
34:54
Um- That is gonna be a- Is- It's gonna be an awkward event to, yes, uh, attend to support like that. Yeah. Yes. Uh, this is, uh, "You go out there and get 'em, honey," [laughs]
35:05
in the case of Nick Wehry and, uh- I've watched this for a lot of years and not thought about that part of it, Michael. That's a good call. Miki Sudo making out with the food.
35:14
Mike Zills Duke90, "Uh, we would do $1 beers, uh, per inning," so $1 beer per inning, uh, at the old single Durham Bulls park where they filmed the movie Bull Durham.
35:26
So I guess what he's saying is $1 beer- Oh, it's probably dollar beer night, yeah... beer an inning. Mi- yeah, yeah Yeah... minor league, uh, promotions like that. That's always fun.
35:32
Uh, GV, New Jersey/New York, he says, "Love the 999 challenge. Probably something I'd try myself too. Really loved the MLB analysis last segment. Definitely piqued my interest."
35:40
Check it out, the podcast Beating the Book, uh, MLB Q2 Derivatives. Mark Borchers and I, Base Winner and I, have done these for more than a decade. Literally, we, we're counting. You know, you do the math.
35:51
It's, it wa- 40 of these we've done. Yeah. It's amazing.
35:54
And we- It's also great, like, like, on top of everything you said, it's a great way to, like, if you're someone like me who's not involved in the baseball season- Yes...
36:01
like right at the beginning, it's a great, like, just kind of little catch-up on what's been going on betting-wise. I love the monthly hot dog, uh, suggestion for books. Super books. Monthly hot dogs. Uh, okay.
36:12
Oh, Indiana Jet. Thank you, Indiana Jet. By the way, Jet in his Twitter handle, so he must know what he's talking about, uh, he provided us with a very technical analysis...
36:22
uh, that he saw a few days ago why heat affects takeoff and landing. So, uh, to the notion of when it gets to 115, 116 degrees, which it will be, uh, by forecast in Las Vegas this weekend, and then past the weekend.
36:36
He says, "In short, high heat reduces lift," meaning planes need longer runways. And he says in Las Vegas and Phoenix, where it's obviously the hottest.
36:44
By the way, sometimes you go from here to Phoenix and you're like, "Oh my God, it's even hotter here in Phoenix." He said Las Vegas and Phoenix have planned for that.
36:50
They do have some of the longest runways, ne- uh, knowing that you will need extra time for lift in the hot temperatures, uh, 'cause it takes longer to climb to a safe altitude.
37:00
It has to do with molecules and density and all that. And like y- we were talking off air, you and me, Kelly. When this subject would come up in school, I would tune out immediately. Yeah.
37:10
I'd be like, "Okay, let's go to something that actually- It, it's real- it's really one of the...
37:14
He, he sent us this full explanation, which I read through entire- i, in its entirety, Gil, and I still can't really provide a better explanation to the audience. Yeah.
37:22
Because yes, my, my science, science knowledge is so limited. Uh, 'cause you're right. They'd start that in high school, you'd be like, "Oh my God, when's lunch already? [laughs] Get me out of here."
37:30
Oh, I would immediately drift. Yeah. You know what? I'm gonna stick with my, uh, I'm gonna stick with my easier explanation of, uh, "Ground's just too hot, Gil. Those tires are gonna pop, okay?
37:40
It's get- ground's way too hot." [laughs] Well, I think that's- It sounds a lot more intelligent... well, I think that's part of it too, actually. [laughs] I think it's both.
37:46
Uh, okay, let's talk Triple Crown, Major League Baseball. By the way, Crack coming up at the top of the hour. Full Unscripted with the Crack Man, uh, coming up at the top.
37:53
Uh, and they're about to start the hot dog eating contest, so hopefully our bets get home, or lose.
37:57
Uh, the history of Major League Baseball, there have been a grand total of 12 times, 12 times, where a player has finished the season in his respective league as the number one player in home runs, RBI, and batting average.
38:13
Now, this was a huge thing many, many years ago before the advent of advanced analytics. Carl Yastrzemski in 1967, it was actually back to back years.
38:23
1966, Frank Robinson for the Orioles, uh, won the Triple Crown in the American League, went 49, 122 with a 316 batting average.
38:31
The next year, Carl Yastrzemski did it for the Boston Red Sox, 44 homers, 121 RBIs, and 300, uh, 326 batting average. And then it didn't happen again for 45 years. And so this became a huge thing.
38:45
And finally in the year 2012, you may remember Miguel Cabrera of the Detroit Tigers did it. And I remember on my podcast on, I think it was Betting Dork at the time.
38:55
On Dork, I would say, 'cause we were talking MVP then, everybody, you know, all the newfangled analytics folks wanted to give it to Mike Trout, and my point was you can't talk about something for 45 years- Yeah...
39:04
as some hallowed thing, and then all of a sudden because we have these newfangled stats, decide well, uh, we gotta give it to Trout. No. This one time you have to give it to Cabrera.
39:13
Next year, different story, then you can do your newfangled thing. So that's exactly what happened, by the way. Um, so Miguel Cabrera is the last person to win the Triple Crown.
39:22
Um, but we got a couple guys right now, and we are more than halfway through the season. The All-Star break's in, in, you know, less than two weeks, so just over a week from now.
39:31
And we're over half a season in, you know, for all teams now.
39:35
And we have a couple guys, Aaron Judge in the American League and Shohei Ohtani in the National League, that are, man, if the season were to end now, Judge would win the Triple Crown and Ohtani would be knocking at the door.
39:47
So let's just talk about Aaron Judge for a second. Aaron Judge, to win the Triple Crown, to continue this, sustainable or unsustainable, to win the Triple Crown, yes, this is at DraftKings, yes is 5 to 1. The no is -900.
40:02
Now, if you go to the stats right now, Aaron Judge leads in all three American League Triple Crown categories. He has, uh, 32 home runs. 32 home runs, which is a six home run lead over Gunnar Henderson of the Orioles.
40:18
So he is well ahead. Both Judge and Ohtani have a six home run lead in their respective leagues in that category. Uh, in the case of RBI, Aaron Judge has 83 currently.
40:30
He has a seven RBI advantage over José Ramírez of the Cleveland Guardians.
40:35
And in terms of batting average, and this is the one that kind of blows their mind, 'cause people don't think of, of Judge as a, uh, batting average guy.
40:42
Uh, he currently leads the American League in batting average with a 318 batting average. That is only three points ahead of Luis Rengifo of the Los Angeles Angels, who's 315.
40:52
And I might note Bobby Witt Jr., who would be the guy I would be worried about, at 314 for the Royals. 5 to 1 on Aaron Judge to win the Triple Crown. Would you bet it or not? I would be more inc- Let's put it this way.
41:06
For me, I'd be more inclined to bet this than I would Shohei, and I'll tell you why coming up. Okay. Um, that's interesting. Yeah. Bobby Witt Jr. does scare me for, for batting average.
41:16
I mean, what's the most likely for b- what, uh, for both of these guys, what is the category they're most likely not gonna- Batting average... it's batting average for both of them?
41:22
Well, well for Judge, it's batting average for sure. In Shohei's case, I think it's also batting average, quite frankly. Shohei, um, again, leads the National League by six home runs. He has 27.
41:36
The next closest National Leaguer has 21. Uh, RBI right now, um- Man, Aaron Judge-... Alec Bohm actually leads. Alec Bohm- Oh... of the Phillies leads with 70. Marcel Ozuna has 67. Shohei six back with 64.
41:51
Which is- Judge has 19 more RBI [laughs] than Shohei does. Wow. Yeah. Well, so Shohei is thir- s- Shohei is first in homers, he's third in RBI right now, and in batting average, um, he is, he's currently number one.
42:06
He's actually got the best batting average in all of baseball right now, 319. But he has a couple Padres, Jurickson Profar at 314, and the guy I would be worried about, the great Luis Arias- Mm. Yeah...
42:18
who's at 310 right now. And Arias is one of these guys that can just catch fire, and that'll be the end of that. That's also tough when you've, like, someone like him, you see him do it year after year.
42:28
Well, Luis Arias is one of only eight players historically who has won- Batting a- uh, won the batting title for two different teams, and he is the only person in the history of baseball to win it consecutive years for two different teams.
42:44
Um, he is trying to be the first player ever to win it three straight years, three different teams, by the way. Uh, we're talking Marlins, Twins- He's nuts, yeah. [laughs] Uh, Twins, Marlins, Padres. Pardon me.
42:56
Twins, Marlins, Padres. So Shohei's plus 950 to win the Triple Crown, the no is minus 2000.
43:03
I mean, I wouldn't bet the no, but I'm definitely not betting Shohei at plus 950, because he's already behind in RBI by, what did I say? Six. Yeah. And, uh, six, was it? Um, 72, 64. Yeah, he's behind by six.
43:17
He's also got Marcell Ozuna in between him and Bohm, and I just don't know if the batting average, if he can fend off guys like Arias. So for Sho- for me, I'm not betting Shohei on this.
43:26
But like you could a- if you said you were betting Aaron Judge at 5/1 to become the 13th ever Triple Crown winner in the history of baseball, I would not hate your bet.
43:36
You think he'll be able to keep it up with the, uh, with the batting average? That's, that's the one that's the, the, the kryptonite, right?
43:43
The, the, the other two, home runs and RBI, if he stays healthy, he's winning those. Right, right, yeah. That, that's where... Now y- you said it perfectly.
43:49
I just, I think a lot of people, including myself, don't think about him as a [laughs], you know, over 300 hitter. Bobby Witt Jr. is the dude I'd be worried about. Okay. But 5/1, I mean, it'd be a fun bet to have.
44:02
Now, full disclosure, I have not bet it, because we don't have it here in town. [laughs] And, and- Yeah, I think this just got posted by DraftKings this morning... and DraftKings just posted this, so
44:11
let's put it this way. I like Judge a whole bunch better than I like Ohtani, 5/1 versus plus 950. Bill- He did hit three e- so he hit 311 in 2022. Yeah, yeah. We'll see.
44:22
Bill Krackenderger on the other side, @BillKrackman with a K. Unscripted next on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat rock music]
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