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Jul 6, 2026
A Numbers Game | July 6, 2026 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | July 6, 2026 | Hour 1
00:00
45:20
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat rock music] This is VSiN, the sports betting network. The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:18
Good Monday morning to you. It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course SiriusXM channel 258. Gil Alexander, uh, another week from San Francisco.
0:30
Kelly Bidlin, back at the mothership at Circa Studios, or VSiN Studios at Circa Resort Casino there in Las Vegas. Good morning, sir. Good morning. How we doing? I'm doing great.
0:40
How was a beautiful Fourth of July in San Francisco? Well, um, I'm gonna do this with my finger 'cause I can never remember. No, it's this way. Yeah. Uh, you see, you see this right over my, uh, left shoulder right here?
0:50
Uh-huh. So yeah, so we have this thing called, uh, the fog. I'm not sure if you're, uh, familiar with this, uh, kind of weather pattern.
0:59
Our Fourth of July 250th celebration was a complete bust, 'cause as I, uh, as I know, as I, uh, mentioned on Friday, it's pot luck. Some years it's beautiful. Other years all we see is puffed colors- Hmm...
1:12
like clouds of color. So, um, yeah, complete bust. All these people came down to the marina, they all got stuck in traffic, they all had to leave. We barely saw any fireworks whatsoever. Yeah, man.
1:25
Well, you had glowing clouds, that's nice. [laughs] But happy Fourth, everybody. Happy 250. That's right. Um, what a weekend. What a weekend of sports. World Cup, it is Team USA day.
1:38
Uh, Team USA's round of 16 game against Belgium tonight. Obviously you have the, uh, the battle of, for the Iberian Peninsula, uh, Portugal versus Spain here at noon Pacific, 3:00 PM Eastern preceding that.
1:50
We gotta talk about the two games yesterday. Norway advances, England advances in just dramatic fashion. Both, uh, we'll get into that. Obviously we have our regular guest, Greg Peterson, all of his baseball plays today.
2:02
Final week before the All-Star break. Major league baseball looking good. Greg's got dating thoughts as well. His dating life, Kelly, has taken a turn. He texted me on Saturday.
2:13
He's like, "We gotta talk about this on Monday." Excited? Yes? All right, let's go. Yes. No. I don't know, you don't sound excited. Yes. I, I am excited. What are you talking about, man? Oh, okay. All right.
2:23
I, I did not know that he- [laughs]... texted you on Saturday night. Oh, yeah, yeah. That's, that is a much better addition to the story than what I knew about. He, he texted me.
2:32
He sent me exclusive pictures, which I cannot share. It's just fantastic. [laughs] That's great.
2:35
Uh, We- Wes Reynolds, Adam Burke a little later on in the show also with baseball, as well as Adam Burke's guardians refuse to go below 500 still.
2:44
Um, Wimbledon, before we get into soccer, I, uh, have three plays on the overnight. We hit on Elise Mertens, uh, already this morning. Uh, right now Alexiala is in a dog fight with, uh, Jasmine Paolini.
2:58
That one is, uh, is, Ayala is down a set. We are, are on Ayala in that one.
3:03
The only one I have left, and I don't know when it's gonna start because they're playing a men's match on court one right now, but I do have Linda Noskova, uh, as a slight dog over Madison Keys a little later on.
3:15
So, um, Wimbledon, by the way, I had a great grass court season going. Wimbledon, I'm down a unit.49, 1.49 units for the tournament. Uh, or as the incels on Twitter call it, Kelly, "He's cleaning out everybody.
3:32
He's down 50 units," or so, whatever they, whatever their math is. So we're down- Get it together, Alexander. Geez [laughs] Down one- Down one and a half units, how dare you? [laughs] It's pretty bad, man.
3:41
It's pretty bad. Plenty of time to make it up. We got a long week to go at Wimbledon. Like- We do. We do. Plenty of time to make that up. Um, to soccer, because let us begin there. Let's talk about the two games.
3:51
We'll get into it because Paul Carr's gonna join us. I, I saved maybe the best for last. Paul Carr's gonna join us in a little less than a half an hour.
3:58
More than anything, I don't know about more than anything, but we're certainly gonna talk about this Flo Balogun drama. And in case you missed it this morning, this is continuing.
4:07
So of course, uh, American striker Flo Balogun, he got the red card, stepped on an opponent's ankle, uh, accidentally against Bosnia and Herzegovina in the USA's two to nothing, two-nil win, I should say.
4:21
Uh, he gets the red card, which means he's supposed to be out for this game against Belgium.
4:26
FIFA's disciplinary, uh, disciplinary committee ultimately suspends the automatic one-match ban under article 27, so meaning he would be eligible to play tonight. Trump got involved.
4:39
I think Howard Lutnick might have gotten involved. This has caused a huge outcry internationally. Well, FIFA granted Belgium the right to appeal this morning, and Belgium is taking them up on that.
4:53
So can't wait to have Paul on, because I wanna get his take on all of this- Yeah... including should this red card have been suspended by FIFA in the first place? In other words, shouldn't the ban have stood?
5:06
We'll get into that. I don't know where you feel. It's so clunky.
5:08
It's so, it's sh- well, well, what I, what I feel, what I feel, Gil, is that FIFA in the rules, in the sliding scales here is, is, is screwing with everybody, every American that has to do media over this, I'll tell you that much.
5:21
Because we, we saw the red card, and then I, and then I read and was told that the red card could not be, uh, w- w- what are we suspending the red card? Also like the language that the, that they use. Yes. You're right.
5:33
Strange. I, I was told the red card could not be o- overturned, and then it is being overturned. Yeah. And then how nice of you, FIFA, to grant the appeal process to Belgium the day of the game.
5:44
They do play later today, right, Gil? Like, wait, wait. [laughs] We're gonna grant you the right to appeal. I think they're gonna take you up on that.
5:51
I think they are gonna take you up on that appeal process, but with how, how clunky this all sounds, a- a- am I really expected to s- have a full process done before the game?
6:01
'Cause it took you a couple days to decide to pull back the red card You're right about all that, including the word suspension, right? We're not taking the red card away, we're just suspending it for a while.
6:12
Um- I love the, uh, we grant you the right to appeal. Like, imagine if that, like, happened in the American justice system. Be like, "Hey, I know you just got in trouble." [laughs] "But guess what?
6:20
You've got the right to appeal now. You didn't before, but now you do." Well, l- by the way, Belgium again has accepted this right to appeal, and they are appealing.
6:31
Um, I am curious when Paul comes on here, one of the questions that I'm gonna ask him, and I'm almost hoping for this scenario at this point, Kelly.
6:38
One of the things I'm gonna ask him is, if Belgium is denied this appeal, let's say we, we continue our day, Belgium is denied the appeal, Balogun is a go.
6:48
Will US Men's National Team coach Mauricio Pochettino, will he then say to himself, "You know what? I'm not gonna start Balogun.
7:01
I'm gonna leave him on the bench and maybe put him in at some later point in the match just to sort of quell this whole scenario where if the USA is, is fortunate enough to advance tonight, we have to deal with this as an asterisk/controversial kind of thing."
7:19
So we'll ask Paul about that 'cause- Man... smarter soccer minds will, uh, will, will be able to chime in on that better than you and I can.
7:26
As far as yesterday, man, we have to give you [laughs] Kelly had a great weekend. We're gonna get to golf here after the break, but let's just start with your boy Erling Haaland. Yeah. Norway.
7:36
Nor- [laughs] Norway gets it done. By the way, I'm gonna say this again, guys. If Norway plays the United States in the final, that would be the matchup, if Norway and USA advance all the way there.
7:44
I'm not sure where Kelly's allegiance will be, but Erling Haaland scores not one, but two late goals. Uh, Norway on their way into the quarterfinals. Uh, they took down Brazil yesterday 2-1.
7:58
Uh, Brazil got a penalty kick, uh, late from Neymar to, uh, make it 2-1 final. But your boy does it again, and now he's got seven goals for the tournament, as does Messi, as does Mbappe. Yep, leading the way.
8:10
Yeah, I'll t- I'll tell you, Gil, I really felt like my coaching from the couch carried over too because I don't know about you, it was a 10 to- 10 total touches in the first half, the fewest of any player on, on the field, on the pitch, if you will.
8:22
And I was like, "Dude, you gotta feed the big man," as, as you and I do- [laughs]... with our great soccer terms, right? Yes. It's feed the big man down low. We gotta get him some touches in the paint.
8:30
And finally they started doing that, and look what happens when you just kinda chip some stuff in and get some stuff in to Erling Haaland. He makes, uh, magical goals happen because he's the Josh Allen of soccer.
8:41
He's too big, too fast, too strong, too talented, can't be stopped. Did it with his head, did it with his leg from what? Outside the box. He's a... It was masterful, man. And Brazil, I, I don't...
8:51
You know, Brazil played with their food early, right? It was, allowed Norway- Yeah... to kinda have possession and just hang with that, and were looking for kinda counter-attacking situations. A- and look, I, I...
9:02
They had a couple great opportunities, uh, but it kind of felt like one- once you saw that first Haaland goal, you, you started thinking, "Man, Brazil, this is not where this game should be right now."
9:12
I counted at least four opportunities- Mm... for Brazil where they should've scored. The PK they missed, right? They missed a penalty kick.
9:19
Then they had the sort of one-on-one with the goalkeeper where all dude had to do was go to his right a couple steps. Yeah. Instead, he insisted on using his left leg. That didn't work out.
9:28
Then there was the strange bounce that would've been a lucky goal, but it was saved. Uh, and then there was another opportunity late, uh, where they missed it so closely.
9:36
And anyway, that's, that's how the cookie crumbles, and Haaland gets it done. You're right, magical with the header. Then you just gave him too much space.
9:43
I mean, you give him a step, that's all he needs to, to, uh, put it in the back of the net on the second one. So Norway has advanced. Uh, they will play England on Saturday in the quarterfinals. England goes into Azteca.
9:55
They had the elevation to deal with. That was a big storyline before the game. They go in there. Uh, they get two back-to-back goals really quickly late in the first half from Jude Bellingham to go up 2-0.
10:08
Uh, Quiñones cuts it to 2 to 1 before halftime, then a red card on England, so they're playing a man down for over a half hour the rest of the way.
10:18
They score first, though, uh, when the goalkeeper is, uh, is issued a penalty, and Kane puts in the penalty kick to make it 3 to 1.
10:29
Comes back, Mexico does with a penalty kick of their own when Kane is given a penalty inside the penalty box.
10:34
Kane becomes the first player ever in World Cup history to make a penalty kick then get, uh, nailed for a penalty, uh, that induces a penalty kick on the other side. 3 to 2. That's pretty cool.
10:43
And then it just became a game of can England hold this? Again, also the elevation. Is this gonna be a problem as the game goes on?
10:51
They were able to do so, including 11 minutes of added time, and England deserves all the credit in the world getting by the home-standing Mexico squad, which never loses, right? Not never, but- Mm-hmm...
11:03
rarely loses at A- at Azteca. Yeah, it was, uh, it was a great, great match, man, watching that. And yeah, England with, man, a man down, and you, th- just these penalties are so huge. I know we talked about it- Ugh...
11:14
last week, but it just- Yes... I- you- the ability to go up 3-1 when you're down to 10 guys, right? Like that, that was the difference in the end. And it... Not that that was a controversial penalty.
11:25
I thought that one was pretty easy. But yeah. No, that one was easy. Get to 3-1, and mayble- you're able to hold on and advance. England, Norway, let's go.
11:32
On the three-way line, Norway 3 to 1, England minus 115, the draw plus 270 on that game on Saturday. Wow, what a t- what a tournament, man. What a boom- Agree...
11:41
this has been f- for us midsummer also just from a content perspective. And just watching it with the soccer hardos, and us like, "Oh, that's a penalty? Oh, is that a penalty? How's that not a penalty?" Right?
11:51
That kind of thing, the, the discourse back and forth. Uh, we'll come back. What a golf weekend for Kelly and Chris Gatterup.
11:57
We'll get to that next on the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting net- You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real. Mindset alone doesn't get bets home.
12:07
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12:33
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. The fireworks have faded. For some of us, they never started. But we're still celebrating here at VSiN through July 7th.
12:44
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13:03
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13:19
Gil Alexander in San Francisco, Kelly Bidlin back in Las Vegas. Danny Higgins unable to join us today, Kelly. We're flying solo, you and me. That's right, yeah, back to that old- Yeah... back to that old producing days.
13:30
Had, had to scramble, you know? L- Larry and Darnell and Chris let me know what I screwed up before the show, and, you know, quick adjustments. We got there, though. You know, 15 minutes, solid 15 minutes so far.
13:40
[laughs] So, so wait, what's this? You, you have, uh, until today you, you have, you completely do not produce anymore, is that the story? No, no, no, no. What's the official?
13:47
No, it's just more Danny handles a lot of the stuff right before the show, so I gotta- Gotcha... I gotta get back in that mode, you know? All right, we got, we get tweets, Kelly, uh, @BeatingTheBook.
13:56
"The better life," Tim Lawson, "Uh, in my opinion, the worst failure in this situation is that FIFA lacks a mechanism to appeal red cards in the World Cup formally.
14:06
Should've been able to properly address this in the first place, rather than digging deep for a workaround." Yeah. Perfectly stated. Perfectly stated from Tim Lawson, who knows his soccer.
14:16
Uh, Shrek McPhee, "Balogun must have had Sorsby's lawyer call FIFA [laughs] about the red card." Talking about Brendan Sorsby of, formerly of Texas Tech University. Uh, Minky Monkey Man, I'm glad somebody said this.
14:29
Minky Monkey Man says, "Hey, hey, Gil, I couldn't help but giggle every time the broadcasters used altitude instead of, instead of elevation. Must've been a dozen times." Me too, man. Every time I'm like, "Elevation."
14:40
Every time they say it I go, "Elevation," in my head, and sometimes out loud, Kelly. [laughs] You should know. Sometimes out loud to myself. Uh, Darren Frazier, "Happy Monday, Gilly and Kelly.
14:49
Wanted to thank you for the tennis play on Friday. Paired it with a heavy favorite for a nice payday. And if you wanna see fireworks, you just have to escape the city to drive about 30 miles east of the Central Valley."
14:58
Oh, I know that, Darren. I, I know that's the case. You just have to leave the city. Uh, we're not leaving the city. We're, we're very snobbish here in the city. We're just gonna stay here- Eh... and endure.
15:06
By the way, do... By the way, do we have that tweet from Carl the Fog by any chance, Kelly? Anywhere? No, you know what? I don't think I do, Gil. That's my bad. Oh, boy, oh, boy. I do not think I s- got that one in.
15:15
That's a tough one. Yeah, I'm sorry. Don't, don't worry. Carl- I got the next one coming up. Okay.
15:19
Carl the Fog, by the way, tweeting about this and, uh, sort of saying, [laughs] "You know your f- you know your Fourth of July plans, San Francisco, for 2:50? Watch this."
15:28
Um, this is from Colin Murphy, "I think we have to look at over cards in the US-Belgium World Cup match. With this, with this decision, you have to believe this match is gonna be chippy.
15:39
I could see Belgium initiating a lot of extracurriculars and the US retaliating." Uh, Jason Mc- uh, Jason McKinney, "Did the fireworks world record count from DC include Trump's call to FIFA?
15:51
[laughs] I hope Fezzik was able to watch the DC fireworks show. It was outstanding." I think Fezzik was in Tahoe, I wanna say, for the fireworks.
15:58
I don't know if he was back from Tahoe, but he was, he, I think he had himself a, a lovely time, 'cause you know how seriously he takes fireworks, Kelly. Well, that's, and that's a great place to do it, right?
16:06
Get out on the lake. You could fire off as many as you want. That's a perfect spot for fireworks. If Fezzik's got it figured out, he's got it figured out.
16:14
Uh, real quick, because I don't wanna forget this later on the show, have you seen the latest Brandon Aiyuk drama? [laughs] Yeah. Yes. This is random.
16:22
So for, for those won- like, for those who thought it was, like, fait accompli that Brandon Aiyuk was gonna be a, a Washington Commodore, um, something is... Th- this has Anth- Antonio Brown vibes. Mm.
16:34
I think Will, I think Will said that on the, uh, group chat. He's right. This is starting to be really weird.
16:39
Brandon Aiyuk on, uh, Instagram just continuing to nuke his job prospects at this point, as Jeremy Fowler said, uh, over at ESPN. He is, uh, talking smack to Jayden Daniels now, Kelly.
16:54
Um, [laughs] I do not understand what his angle is here at all, but he's like, he's just, they unfollowed each other as well.
17:03
Like, this was the one landing spot, the Washington Commanders, where you thought, "Oh, okay, well, like, s- a team actually wants him." Yeah. And now I, he's obviously trying to force the Niners' hand to cut him,
17:15
but this seems really stupid to, like, go after the best player on the one [laughs] team that seemed to want you anyway. Just crazy. If you, uh, if, I- Bold strategy, Cotton. It's interesting- I-...
17:27
to, uh, go after the, uh, upco- yeah, quarterback for sure. Let me, let me quote. I'll leave it at this. I'll just quote Brandon Aiyuk, Kelly.
17:34
Quote, "You gonna have to stop running behind your mama, and I might believe what you're talking about," unquote. Okay. The, uh... I, I'm gonna s- I'm gonna use the Jon- That's to Jayden Daniels, yeah.
17:45
I'm gonna use the Jonathan Van Tassel line about Jonathan Kaminga. Brandon Aiyuk is quickly becoming the most covered, like, average player out there. Like, I, I, like- Totally agree...
17:54
and, and I don't even, I don't even mean to say average.
17:56
The difference between a Jonathan Kaminga and Brandon Aiyuk is I think Brandon Aiyuk's good, but we t- for how much we talk about him, we've b- we haven't seen him on the football field in, like, two years basically.
18:07
Like, this is, I, I, I just, we talk about this guy all the time, and I'm like, "I don't know what he's going to be when, when he shows up and plays." Totally, totally agree.
18:16
Totally agree, and at this point if you're a c- if you're a Commanders fan, as I am, you have, any, any inkling of you wanting him on the team has quickly gone to- Mm-hmm... "Yeah, we're good. We're good.
18:28
We- you're, you're good, buddy. Mm. We don't need you." Um, just a really weird, uh, sort of...
18:33
trajectory on Brandon Aiyuk, who we still don't know if he's playing, and if he is, where next year, uh, in the National Football League. As you said, who knows what he even is at this point.
18:44
Uh, to golf, Kelly, you had yourself g- would you l- well, [laughs] I don't wanna say what you actually texted in an early, in an- [laughs]... Erling Haaland/Chris Gotterup text, but let's just say you were very pleased.
18:58
It was like, it was like 30 minutes, and it was like, okay. Th- this is where it, this, these golf wins are tough, Gil, 'cause we, you know- Yeah... we do a golf betting podcast.
19:06
We have Wes Reynolds coming up later on the show, and unfortunately- What's that called? What's that golf podcast called? Long Shots. Long Shot's the name of the podcast. Mm. Go check it out weekly. Yep.
19:13
Yeah, so, um, the, the, we've had a couple of these tournaments before, and it's always uncomfortable.
19:19
It's the, the final day leaderboard where everybody has someone in the running, and we've had a coup- we've had, this is now the second time where I've had one guy down the stretch late, and Matt and Wes have been on another guy at much longer odds, and they were both on Ben Coles, uh, in this tournament.
19:37
And it was, Gotterup was five shots off the lead heading into Sunday.
19:42
We talked about this event being a birdie fest, so yeah, scoring was v- out there, but it's not like, not like I really thought Gotterup was gonna be able to catch these guys and pass them.
19:50
He goes out there, shoots nine under 62. He's able to get in the clubhouse at 20 under.
19:55
Uh, Ben Coles, who had been leading the tournament, uh, for, for a while, I, he goes and, what'd he bogeys, bogeys 15 to bring him back, uh, to 19 under on 16 on the par three, steps up and b- bounces back, gets a birdie to tie this thing, uh, back at 20 under.
20:14
Par five, he has to go and par that at 17. So we go all square for him leading into ei- uh, hole 18. And I think Erling Haaland scores.
20:24
Ben Coles tees off, hits it down the fairway, and then that approach shot just clank off the, off the side of the green into the water. His tournament's over. He can't save par.
20:35
And Gotterup, who'd been hanging around on the, on the practice gr- or practice range getting ready, thinking he's gonna have to play a playoff, doesn't have to do that anymore, just wins it in regulation.
20:44
So nice t- nice for me, bittersweet for the, uh, for the podcast in general, 'cause you don't, you know, [laughs] there's not many texts going around, obviously, as that's closing out.
20:53
But Chris Gotterup, man, this is three wins now on the season, four in the past year. Uh, this dude is incredible, and, uh, a major win, I think, is coming soon. And it's sometimes, sometimes it's the basic skill.
21:05
Like, and this guy really is. We ta- like, I talked about him last Wednesday. Heading, heading into this tournament, uh, you were looking at strokes gained stats for the last 16 r- rounds.
21:14
He was second in the field off the tee, second on approach, second with putting.
21:19
And it's just sometimes when you see a player like that and he's got the distance that he has off the tee, I, he, you know, he, he makes it s- look simple sometimes, and he did, he did on Sunday.
21:28
That was for sure, 'cause every drive was long. Every approach was good, and then he's drilling all these long putts.
21:34
Um, and yeah, Chris Gotterup, he's really rounding into one of better, one of the better players on tour. Well, Rick Gamen put it in contest, uh, context, pardon me, for us on, uh, Twitter.
21:44
Our buddy Rick Gamen @RickRunGood. Uh, most wins in the last 365 days on the PGA Tour, Scottie Scheffler, four, Chris Gotterup, four. That's the list. Yep. Those two guys.
21:55
Uh, Fitzpatrick and Cam Young with three, Rose and Clark with two, and then 30 dudes with one. But that's it. Scheffler and Gotterup. And then, uh, Kyle Porter, uh, putting it in even greater context- It's incredible...
22:07
for everybody on Twitter. [laughs] Uh, Chris Gotterup has the same number of wins in the last 12 months, that's four, by the way, than all of these players combined.
22:19
The same number of wins, four, than all of these players combined. You ready? Deep breath.
22:25
Rory, Ludvig, Rahm, Sam Burns, Cantlay, Si Woo, McNeely, Harris English, JT, Lowry, Rickie Fowler, Spieth, Keegan, Brian Harman, Corey Conners, Jason Day, both Hoygarts. [laughs] He said all the Hoygarts.
22:37
All the Hoygarts. [laughs] Uh, [laughs] Sepp, DJ, Brooks, Sungjae, Cam Smith, Tom Kim, Sergio, and Tony Finau. All those guys combined equal Chris Gotterup. Yeah, man. That's how magical it's been.
22:49
Yeah, and it, it's, it's always, I think it's one of the toughest and most interesting things about handi- handicapping golf, Gil, is w- you, you've heard me mention it.
22:56
We use it, we use the term on the podcast all the time, win equity, right? What, w- there's guys that can go out there and finish top 10, top 20 on a regular basis, like a Si Woo Kim or a Patrick Cantlay.
23:06
How often do you go out there and win? Chris Gotterup has proven he's a winner. What do you guys like better on Long Shots, win equity or ball striking? What do you think? Ball striking, for sure. Ball striking to me.
23:15
Yeah, I think so. Ball striking for the win. That's almost every episode, probably.
23:19
Ladies and gentlemen, Greg Peterson is next, not only with his Fab Five baseball picks, but his dating life has taken a turn to the good next on A Numbers Game.
23:27
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on A Numbers Game, Gil Alexander live from San Francisco.
23:41
Kelly Biblin live from Las Vegas on this Monday morning.
23:45
Uh, normally I would, uh, read a bunch of tweets here, but, uh, there is just too much ground to cover with our next guest, not only in terms of his Fab Five baseball plays, but because his well-documented dating life has taken a turn for the good.
23:59
Greg himself tweeted this out. I believe this was on Saturday. Don't hold me to that. He'll t- he'll tell us. Uh, he says, "For those who have been enjoying my bad dating stories, bad news.
24:10
Had dinner at The Wynn tonight on what was probably the best date of my life. My luck has finally turned around, and look at that piece of chicken parm on the left." Oh, man. And whatever else that is over there.
24:20
That's good stuff. Ladies and gentlemen, Greg Peterson joins us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter @GUnit_81. Greg, do tell. How was it? Wow That's all I need to say.
24:35
It was a very, very amazing weekend. It was great. It was... I don't know how this happened. If I tried to file this in to l- to Hollywood as a movie script, they would turn it down.
24:49
It was that amazing, it was that unreal, and I'm glad to be joining you. Thank you. All right. Wow. [laughs] Wow.
24:55
So wait, before, before the break, before the, uh, the segment though, you said this was, this was less a date than it was a weekend rendezvous. What do you mean by that?
25:05
Eh, pretty much we just saw each other for all three days, and I'm now working long distance now. I... Something I never thought I was ever gonna do.
25:14
I always thought, oh, person has to be in the area and everything like that. And I thought because this, we met on Hinge. That's the way that we met.
25:22
This is a person that I didn't know at the time when I swiped was outside the area visiting for the weekend. So it was like- Oh... okay.
25:30
She asked me if I was gonna be willing to do a distancing, if I was willing to meet her this weekend, and I was like, "Sure." And, like, for the longest time, I was thinking, "Am I gonna get robbed here? Is this AI?
25:42
Am I, like, being set up or something like this? We're gonna go with it. I like the profile. I like everything that I'm seeing. Let's just give this a shot. I have been let down too many times. What's one more letdown?"
25:55
Anything but a letdown. Very, very real. Very, very amazing weekend. I could not be happier.
26:02
Because most people who just heard that, Greg, as you probably surmise, heard in town for the weekend, their brain goes somewhere, right? And what you are saying is- Yep... their brain shouldn't go there? Exactly.
26:14
Very much exactly. Wait, it should. Okay. It should, though.
26:18
This girl, you're telling me this girl had a conversation with you before you e- ever took her out for anything and was asking you about dating, dating you going forward p- beyond this weekend? Yep.
26:29
She said, "Let's see what happens this weekend, and let's see what happens moving forward," and w- we are moving forward. Wow, okay. W- would you care to share what her, what her profession is, Greg?
26:43
I will leave all that out of it for right now, but she does very, very, very well for herself. Okay. And it's not the... By the way, when I say profession, immediately I'm thinking- Hm.
26:51
"Oh, people are gonna think what I..." Yeah. No, not that. It's like a legit, a stated, stated a legitimate profession and, and a really, uh, a noble one. Greg, I, I wish you the best. Yes.
27:03
I hope that it only continues to be awesome. Let's leave it at that. Greg Peterson, ladies and gentlemen. Things could be looking up or, you know, we'll see. We'll see how that goes. They're definitely looking up.
27:13
They're definitely looking up. Okay. I'm starving now. They're looking up. I'll leave it at that. I know that much. I'm starving. [laughs] Look at that chicken parm. By the w- g- yeah, can we show that one more time?
27:20
That's, that's a chicken parm. What is that on top there, Greg? Sea bass. Sea bass. Oh, man. Ooh. Ladies and gentlemen, this man goes to the win, has himself a, has himself a great meal. Hey, man, you run 12 miles a day.
27:35
You can afford to do that. Oh, yeah. All right, Greg. Yeah. Major league baseball, uh, it is the final week before the All-Star break. Um, home run derby next week. It's a fun time of year. Trade deadline coming up.
27:46
Uh, excuse me, uh, the draft and then the trade deadline. Let's start with your, uh, fab five, and let us begin with what is the series of the week. We have a four-game set between the Yankees and the Rays.
27:58
The Yankees find themselves four games out. This is one of these series...
28:02
I was t- I was on with, uh, John Yastremski and, uh, Will yesterday [clears throat] on Vsan on the weekend, and, you know, John's point was a good one, which is, boy, the Yankees have to at least tread water here, right?
28:14
They can't crater. You can't get swept, that's for sure, 'cause all of a sudden, four becomes eight into the break. Um, at the very least, you wanna split here.
28:23
Today it is Cam Schlittler on the hill for the Yankees, and I would imagine you would s- probably take the same approach as I am here, which is this is the one the Yankees absolutely have to win because of that.
28:35
Yep, absolutely. And I aim for the Yankees. Cam Schlittler, yes, he had a really rough start last time out against the Detroit Tigers. He's an underdog to Griffin Jax. Like, I wish he could put it more simply.
28:48
I wish I had more complexity with this handicap, but I'm getting plus money on Cam Schlittler against Griffin Jax. That's the godfather offer that you cannot refuse in this situation.
28:58
[laughs] You look at what Cam Schlittler has done away from home too. He's got a 1.03 ERA in games played away from home, so he has been tremendous away from Yankee Stadium.
29:08
And to the credit of Griffin Jax, he had an 80 ERA coming out of the bullpen with three home runs allowed per nine innings.
29:13
That's gone down to 265 as starter, but he's still giving up over 1.4 home runs per nine innings as a starter. The Tampa Bay Rays have by far the higher bullpen ERA. Now, they've also got Junior Caminero.
29:23
I'm not even kidding when I say he's had 11 home runs in 12 games. The guy is hotter than lava. It's absolutely insane.
29:29
But for the Yankees, being able to get plus money on Cam Schlittler, this team really, really needing wins after they have fallen and can't get back up the last few weeks, I think that this is the time where they finally get back up.
29:42
Give me Cam Schlittler and the Yankees on the money line. Glad you went hotter than lava. Thought that was going somewhere else. Um, big four-game set again between the Yankees and the Rays.
29:52
Um, heading into the All-Star break, Rays start the series with a four-game lead over the Bronx Bombers. Then there's the Braves. Uh, the Braves lead in the NL East is, how can I put this, precarious.
30:03
Three-game lead over the Phillies, four and a half over the Marlins, Greg. Um, Braves, though, have an easy schedule here in the month of July. They need to take advantage. They got the Mets tonight.
30:15
What do you have here? And that's always good news. When you see the Mets on your schedule, you need to be winning these games right now because they just have not been good this season.
30:23
And Freddy Peralta, holy crud, he has given up 25 runs in his last five starts. [laughs] You wanna talk about a signing that is just- Holy crud... completely blowing up in their face, man This is not good.
30:34
And for Ronaldo Lopez, he started out the season as a starter, goes into the bullpen, now he's back as a starter.
30:40
He's got a fielding independent that's w- about a point higher than his ERA, so I do like that eight and a half to the over.
30:45
But I'm holding back the Atlanta Braves here because they still have the number one bullpen in the big leagues in terms of ERA, so if Ronaldo Lopez, who's been in the bullpen for quite a bit, doesn't give you a ton of length, you're fine there.
30:55
And for the Mets, they have an offense that has just been terrible away from home. They're averaging about 3.7 runs per game away from home, dead last in the National League.
31:04
Guys I name Juan Soto have been awful for this team. And I know that for the Braves, Drake Baldwin has outed himself since coming off the injured list.
31:11
They've had some issues with that offense, but I trusted them to be able to get the job done against a guy in Freddy Peralta that has just been terrible over the last month or so. Give me the Braves on the money line.
31:21
I'm gonna see a late add here. Do we have a Brewers Cardinals play tonight as well? Absolutely.
31:26
With the Brewers versus the Cardinals, this is gonna be a spot where I'm gonna be looking at what we've got here with that total of eight to the over. With Shane Drone, he's been rock solid.
31:35
He's been able to give you a sub-3.50 ERA, sub-3.50 fielding independent. Dustin May is coming off of giving up, though, 11 runs in two and two-thirds innings in his last two starts.
31:44
That's even worse than Freddy Peralta's been in his last two starts, so that's not a place where you wanna be. And for this Brewers team, they just hit you death by a million cuts. They're averaging 5.2 runs per game.
31:55
That's a top four mark in all of baseball, even though they're one of the lesser teams in all of baseball in terms of home runs on a per FF basis.
32:02
For this Cardinals bullpen, they've been below average with regards to ERA as well.
32:06
This is, by the way, going to be a game before a double dip on Tuesday, so you have to think that these starters are gonna need to go a little bit deeper into this game because they're gonna wanna save as many bullets as seemingly possible for 18 innings on Tuesday as well.
32:18
So that means that you're gonna see these starters probably be out there a little bit longer than they normally would. Give me that eight to the over. All right. Padres Diamondbacks.
32:28
Uh, speaking of holy crud, as you put it, uh, Greg, both teams a game below 500. Both teams 14 behind the Dodgers, and it is sh- it should actually be worse, right? Their, their run differentials are terrible.
32:41
Um, you're playing this two ways tonight. Yep. I'm gonna be taking a look at the Padres on the money line and the under. Walker Buehler has been better than his ERA.
32:50
He gives up the nine spot in his last start against the Chicago Cubs, absolutely awful. He had given up one earned run in each out of his previous four starts.
32:57
So I think that there's gonna be a little bit of bounce back here. Fielding independent about.75 points better than his ERA. I just still don't trust in Brandon Pfaadt on the flip side for the Diamondbacks.
33:06
He has first start in quite some time. He looked relatively solid, but guy's gettin'- getting only 6.9 strikeouts per nine innings, 1.7 home runs, 3.7 walks, a lot of per nine innings, about a 550 ERA.
33:18
And for the Padres, they still have one of the better bullpens in all of baseball. It's a little bit warped by that series that they had against the Chicago Cubs where the wind was just blowing out to high noon.
33:27
But that said, think that the Padres here at home, they get the job done, like that under, and I like the Padres on the money line. Bonus play. Giants Blue Jays, what do you got? Absolutely.
33:38
With this one, I'm gonna be taking a look at the under. It's been a rough go of it for Kevin Gausman and Landon Roark, but both of these guys have pitched much better than what their ERAs would indicate.
33:46
Faruk, fielding independent well north of a point lower than his ERA. And Kevin Gausman, he's not walking anyone. He's given up less than two walks per nine innings.
33:54
This is a Giants ballpark that has one of the most pitcher-friendly in all baseball. For the Giants, they're a bottom six team in terms of run creation at home as well.
34:01
And Blue Jays, they're averaging 3.7 runs per game away from home. That's bottom five mark, so in on the under. There you go. Greg Peterson's Fab Five. We'll put him back up later on the show.
34:10
A question from the numbers guys. With your jogging streak and your college basketball podcast streak, do you consider yourself a creature of habit, yes or no? Yes. Yes. How could he not? Thank you, Greg.
34:22
Congratulations on the dating life. Coming back- Thank you... on the Numbers Game right here at V- [upbeat rock music]
34:37
A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting info, and alerts directly from the pros. Check 'em out, sharpplays.com.
34:51
You can scan the QR code for more. Once again, sharpplays.com. Don't put the, don't put the word "the" in there, just sharpplays.com. That's right. We get tweets @BeatingTheBook, always appreciated, uh, from everybody.
35:03
Brian Young, Notorious Guns, uh, "Starting the week off right listening to the boys, Gil and Kelly, on a Numbers Game. Enjoy the show daily. Keep up the great work, boys." Thank you so much, Brian.
35:13
It's very nice of you to check in. Appreciate that. Uh, I Heart, I Heart SEC Podcast, "The life of sports bettors.
35:20
Both tennis plays come in, Australia-Egypt draw, Yankees win, and the minus 700 Argentina goes to extra time. Parlay up in smoke. FML." Yeah. Yeah. That happens with parlays.
35:33
That was the, uh, that was the Kelly Bidlin, uh, Independence Eve five-leg parlay, Gil. Oh, is that what that was? Yeah. The o- Oh... the only leg that didn't get home was Argentina money line. [laughs] Ah.
35:46
Oh, man You can have a dime for every time that happens. Yep. Chris Hartman, "Gil, hitting the over in the Norway game more than makes up for the quarter hit dog loss on the Sudo under." Okay, we gotta talk about this.
35:58
Um, we gotta talk about the hot dog contest on, uh, on Saturday. So- Y- you're gonna have to explain this, the, the, the situation with Sudo to me. I didn't g- Okay. S- I, like, read it afterward.
36:08
I didn't understand it at all. Well, we won both of ours. Mm-hmm. We, we hit the- Got those home... Sudo under, 'cause we had 39, uh, and then we hit the combined under, too, between Chestnut and Sudo.
36:18
Chestnut wins going away, Sudo wins going away, but they both, as we sort of predicted with the weather, um, went under their, their over under. So the, the issue...
36:28
First of, first of all, let me give you a shout-out, because on Friday you said something s- I think it was the most prescient comment of the whole weekend, which was, we're talking about this for a whole segment.
36:37
We're breaking down this hot dog eating contest, talking about the temperature, talking about how they did when the temperature was this high back in 2010, at least in Chestnut's case. Here's why we're making the bets.
36:46
And then you added at the end, you go, "And you know what?"
36:50
I'm probably gonna forget that this event is even happening tomorrow, and I'll just sleep through it or I'll just live my life through it Yeah And that, Kelly, is exactly what happened. Yeah, me too. I know, me too.
37:01
It's the combination.
37:02
The one thing I left off on Friday was the, I, I, what I said on Friday was it, it's just the only sporting event e- every year that I feel like on the West Coast becomes tough, 'cause it's 4th of July, there's other things going on, right?
37:15
A- and like, the men start at noon Eastern Time. Like, that, it's 9:00 AM out here, so you, like, better be ready. Um, but the other thing is it's, it, it's a whole 10 minutes, right?
37:23
Unless you care about the whole lead-up and everything, like, it's 10 minutes. [laughs] So you better be there, and you better not be late. It's a b- 'cause I'm sweating out tennis matches, right?
37:31
So, like, your brain is on these, really, these things that you're betting- Mm... much larger, right?
37:37
And I completely forgot about it, didn't even remember it on my own until I get a text from my buddy Chris, who had under 38 and a half on Miki Sudo's total. And in the end, [laughs]
37:53
she was g- she was, uh, clocked in at, I don't know if that's the right term- Sure... uh, 38 and three-quarter hot dog and buns.
38:02
Now, the issue with that is normally you'd be like, "Oh, wow, you lost by a quarter of a hot dog and bun." I guess that's the proper terminology. But the problem was on the live broadcast,
38:12
if you watched it, and he did, and he was analyzing it as if he was w- as if he were analyzing the Kennedy assassination with the Zapruder film, like this f- with this fine tooth of a comb, right?
38:24
He's like, how can they possibly... Because by the end of her time, end of her 10 minutes, she was at, like, 32, I think. Mm-hmm.
38:33
So we get it, you can miscount the broadcasts based on then or vis-a-vis what they n- eventually have her at officially. But you can't miscount it by five and a half buns and hot dogs or whatever it was. Right. Right?
38:49
So people were losing their mind, and I think kind of justifiably, because you'd have to go into... And, and here's the other smoking gun, [laughs] and he did use the term smoking gun.
39:01
The other, the other smoking gun is the competitors who were in second or third, their counts were the exact same officially as they were on the screen watching it live. So I don't know what happened.
39:14
Somebody who watched it live and has a better explanation than we could come up with needs to explain it to us. But that was the controversy of the Coney Island, uh, hot dog eating contest.
39:24
We got super lucky, 'cause we just got it in in time at 39 on Sudo. But that, that is, uh- That's wild... you know how the, the rigged crowd loved that one. Yeah. That's wild.
39:36
And I, like I said, you're gonna have to explain this to me, 'cause I read it quick afterward, but I, the, y- you know, you can read what happens, and then my immediate thought was, how do you miscount by five, six hot dogs, whatever it was?
39:47
You, you can't. Yeah. Yeah. You, you c- you can't. You would think that's very tough to do.
39:51
So I'm interested to see if this, uh, affects anything with that, with the broadcast and kind of how it's, you know, they flip the cards over behind them, right, of how the counting goes in the future.
40:02
'Cause I mean, we've talked about this with other sports. I mean, uh, people bet on this stuff. Like, I, it's, uh, to me- Yeah... I, I think there's some leeway, right? If you are, "Hey, a official counts in.
40:13
We were a half dog off. We're a dog off even," right? Like, that, to me, that, that's a, like, okay, I get it. Like, you're trying to do this in real time. To be, [laughs] to be five hot dogs off? Like, what?
40:23
Like, i- it's wild. Yeah. That's, that's not a thing. Um, more tweets. This is from, uh, LosVegas514. "Yo, Dan Snyder, worst owner. Albert Haynesworth, worst free agent signing. Heath Schuler, worst draft pick.
40:39
Jim Zorn, worst head coach. Brandon Aiyuk, worst and dumbest non-player." [laughs] That's a great... That is a brilliant Washington Football Team tweet right there.
40:50
Uh, a little history and just how r- that, that's exactly how I, I'm like, "You're not even on the team yet, dude, and we already hate you." Like, what are you doing, Brandon Aiyuk?
40:58
Uh, TheNumbersGuys was the question for Greg. The actual question was, "We all know about your dedication to your college basketball podcast and your jogging streak that's gone on since the Carter administration.
41:07
Do you consider yourself a creature of habit?" Obviously, we do from the outside, but it is a, a good question to see what Greg thought about it from his perspective, and he does think he's a creature of habit.
41:16
Uh, Banshees of Atlantic City, "No ballgames." Oh, this was a thing with those watching, uh, baseball and betting baseball yesterday. No ballgames were available on MLB.TV yesterday.
41:27
All games were available exclusively on NBC Peacock. It's a little July 4th weekend kind of thing. Mm. Uh, in response, Banshees of Atlantic City says, "My $30 a month in subscription money is no longer available to MLB.
41:40
Uh, that money will now be available exclusively to my goomar [laughs] or possibly my side piece."
41:46
[laughs] Uh, Matthew Mayberry, "I had Ben Coles, Zach Johnson, and, uh-" Brutal Okay, this is a bit of, bit of a grammar issue here. "... and Jackson?" What is he saying? Suber probably. At bomb odds.
41:59
At Suber, yeah, at odd, bomb odds. Uh, "Luckily, I had Zach Johnson top 10 at 10 to one to make some, a decent profit, but that was hard to swallow, especially when all three of them were tied for second at one point."
42:10
Yeah, this was- Mm... I mean, I think Gil, Gil, it is, uh, it's a t- it's gonna be a bumpy Long Shots this week. I, uh, like, Matt had Max Homa, Ben Coles, Jackson Suber. All three of them finished T-6 or better.
42:24
And, uh, Wes had a couple of those guys and Rio Hasa today, who was one shot back of them, too. It was, they had, they had the whole thing circled. I had one guy, and the one guy just got there.
42:36
Uh, Colin Murphy, "Follow-up question. What was, uh, what was the young lady in town for?" Talking about Greg Peterson now. "If a convention or work-related trip, okay.
42:44
If a bachelorette party, then maybe a bit questionable. Do women visit Vegas looking for a relationship? Either way, happy for you, Greg." That kind of sums up my emotions during it, too.
42:52
And, uh, BSref27, "Gil, a master class at asking the question all listeners [laughs] wanted to ask. Greg, what's her profession? Love me some Hoops Peterson, but this screams catfishing.
43:01
He might wanna check his bank account today." Ugh.
43:03
Uh, I thought the- We all The, the last question in the last tweet was the one I had too, 'cause I- it is, it is, it is not uncommon for, for, for young ladies to come out to Vegas for one of those bachelorette li- uh, type weekends a- and be looking for a gentleman to take them out and wine and dine them for the weekend and take care of some of the expenses, right?
43:23
But the whole idea of having a conversation about are we gonna do a long distance relationship after this before we've even met, that, that was kind of mind-blowing to me.
43:33
Ladies and gentlemen, it is July, and that means we are involved in another baseball monthly market, most wins in the month of July.
43:40
And let's just say the Red Sox are doing what we hoped the Cubs would have done last month. Remember, the Cubs' first 15 games, the whole handicap was they got to exploit those first 15 games.
43:49
It's a super easy schedule against the, uh, Giants and the Athletics. Uh, I can't remember who the other team was. Uh, the Rockies, they didn't. They went seven and eight.
43:58
They ultimately finished the, uh, month 16 and 10, which is good, but not good enough to catch the red hot Marlins who were 20 and six and won the month. Nobody had the Marlins.
44:09
The Red Sox are exploiting at least the first four games. They are exploiting the easy schedule. They are three and one, Kelly, out of the box. My 80 to one play on the Boston Red Sox.
44:18
The Rockies currently have the lead in the very early going here of July at four and one. Uh, then you see the Twins, Mariners, O's, Tigers, and our Red Sox all at three and one to start the month.
44:31
Of course, there is an All-Star break that begins right at the end of this week, so there are fewer games played in this month than any other. But, um, the rest of the, uh, week, Red Sox have six more games here.
44:43
So the idea is for them to exploit this big time, come in strong here against both the White Sox and the Mets the rest of the week, go into the break in great position, and then it'll be a sprint to get us our 80 to one in July.
44:59
So, so far so good. Long way to go, obviously. Yeah, current odds on the Red Sox, 12 to one. Your favorites to have the most wins in July. Braves plus 425. Yeah, they got an easy schedule, so do the Brewers.
45:12
Paul Carr, World Cup next. It's a numbers game right here at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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