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Jul 7, 2026
A Numbers Game | July 7, 2026 | Hour 3
A Numbers Game | July 7, 2026 | Hour 3
00:00
46:13
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number three of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the e-sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, SiriusXM Channel 158. However you're taking us in, we are grateful each and every morning.
0:22
I say that on, uh, on behalf of both of us. Kelly Biddle, everybody, back in the studio there in, uh, in Las Vegas. By the way, we, uh, got, Kelly, a, uh, a tweet from somebody. Yeah.
0:32
Uh, not just from anybody, from Chance Copperpot, who said, "Did I just hear Kelly refer to himself in the third person when referencing that picture from the, uh, Fourth of July party?"
0:41
[laughs] And, uh, a- and then he throws in, "Also, are the White Sox missing the playoffs?" I, I don't think they are. I don't, I don't know that they are, by the way.
0:48
You know what's funny about- I'd say you didn't- You know what's funny- Yeah... about that comment, Gil, is first of all, Kelly refers to himself in the third person often on this show, but usually I do it on purpose.
0:56
[laughs] Yes, he does. I do it on purpose usually. Uh-huh. And I did kinda accidentally walk into it there. So Chance, as usual, doesn't miss a thing, catches that, calls me out for it. Well done.
1:05
Uh, because I read all the tweets, um, I have to read this one from Jeff Levine at HighBeams45 who says, "Hmm, when I heard that our head of state contacted FIFA about the suspension, I inhaled deeply and got concerned about the impetus of our team.
1:21
Might this have been the major cause of the lack of initial on-field passion of our players?" He concludes the tweet the same way he started it. "Hmm," he says. Things I guess- Hmm...
1:31
I think what he means is things that make you go, "Hmm." He didn't put the H there, but there you go. Um, I knew somebody was gonna bring that up, so there you go. Jeff Levine did on Twitter.
1:40
Um, Joe Sheehan's gonna come on the show, talk baseball with us coming up. Uh, we have a, uh, soccer game. We have a World Cup game starting right now, Kelly, uh, round of 16. I have no bets in this.
1:51
Um, Argentina taking the pitch right now against Egypt. Messi right now at seven goals, tied with Mbappé, and, uh, your boy Erling Haaland. Did you make any plays in this game? Yeah, I laid a goal in the half.
2:03
I, I tailed- Oh, you did? Uh, yes. I tailed everything Paul bet yesterday. So this was, uh, or everything for today at least. So yeah, I laid goal in the half with Argentina.
2:14
I also have Argentina, what, to make the semi future, so I'll be rooting them on h- uh, hard here. And then I also played Colombia money line later here tonight. Okay.
2:25
You got the screen in front of you, or you're watching Osaka and Muchova? Which, what are you, what are you choosing to watch? Uh, Osaka, Muchova now, but I think we're gonna need a soccer change here, fellas, actually.
2:36
I, it was the- [laughs]...
2:37
I, the, the old behind-the-scenes Gil, uh, you'll remember this a lot from the South Point, especially with primetime action, it was the three of us, and you're trying to motion or kinda what are we gonna do next, a- and, you know, we'd make certain motions, right?
2:48
Like throwing a football, we're gonna go throw a football, basketball, right? I didn't know how to motion to Darnell, right, as we were coming back from break to go to soccer, so I tried to do a header motion.
2:57
I don't th- I don't think that message got across. Do you or you refer to... We were talking about Darnell- Clearly can't, you know? We were talking about Darnell nicknames off-air.
3:05
Do you, what do you refer to him as, D-Money? What do you refer to him- I call him The Glen. The Glen. The Glen. Yeah. Mm-hmm. Larry calls him some stuff that I, I really can't get behind. Yeah, it's a little weird.
3:15
Um, but that's a whole 'nother story. Uh, okay, so we, we talked a little make miss playoffs in the American League and National League moments ago.
3:21
Um, we'll get back to baseball with Joe Sheehan coming up here in about 10, 15 minutes. Um, you know who we haven't talked to? Any American football- Yeah... after, uh, Team USA went out yesterday.
3:30
I feel like we need an injection of some American football. Uh, let's look at some AFC divisions beginning, because we are contractually obligated to do so with Kelly Biddle on set, with the AFC East. Bum, bum, bum.
3:44
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Um, it's the Bills and, and, and it's their world and nobody else, right? You're not even entertaining the thought of anybody else winning this division. Uh, I, I wouldn't go that far.
3:55
I'll entertain the idea of the Patriots being in the mix again. I will not entertain- Okay... the idea of the Jets and Dolphins being in the mix. I th- I do not think we're living in a world where that's happening.
4:04
Bills minus 125, Patriots plus 120, Jets 19 to one, Dolphins 40 to one right now at DraftKings, uh, to win this division. Yeah, look, this has been a pretty common bet for me, uh, every year.
4:17
Like Josh Allen is the most valuable player in the NFL, and for multiple reasons. Not only the talent, but he doesn't miss games. Um, we t- we talk often about that start streak that he keeps, uh, that keeps going.
4:27
I think the Patriots, I don't think I'm expecting a drop-off. Like, I think this team's gonna still be b- uh, still keep getting better. I do believe in Drake May, getting AJ Brown in there.
4:37
Uh, this just becomes a bit of a matchup bet for me. It's 120 t- uh, minus 125 versus plus 120. Uh, you take two other teams out of the equation, I think this makes this a simpler division bet for me.
4:48
So yeah, I did lay, I laid the 125. I think it will be interesting to see what this Buffalo defense looks like, uh, as the, it, m- remember, whole new coaching staff, right? Joe Brady take o- takes over as head coach.
5:00
Jim Leonard coming in to coach up the defense. We'll be switching schemes on that side of the ball, uh, over to a, uh, a basic 3-4.
5:08
So we'll see how that works, uh, with all the pieces moving around on the defensive side. But you know what?
5:13
They were a bottom third defense last year anyway, so I, it's, it's kinda one of those how much worse can they get? I know what I'm getting on offense, or I think I know what I'm getting on offense.
5:22
I think that leads the way. So yeah, only a few futures bets for me in the accounts already, Gil, but Bills minus 125 to win the East is one of them.
5:31
And I will say it again every time this conversation comes up this summer, as I'm sure everybody does when it comes to the Patriots.
5:38
The Patriots went from four wins in 2024 to 17, including the playoffs in 2025, uh, passing the, uh, '98, '99 Rams for the largest turnaround in NFL history, a plus 13 win change, which is just incredible from year to year.
5:56
Uh, but again, they also played, and here's what everybody's gonna say all summer long, and ought to, right? Yep. Justifiably so.
6:03
They played the easiest regular season strength of schedule since Those same '99 Rams, actually it was the year after with the, uh, Greatest Show on Turf Rams. Now, that Rams team, of course, won the Super Bowl.
6:17
So again, the Rams exploited that easy schedule to win a Super Bowl, uh, one of the great teams of all time with the Greatest Show on Turf.
6:26
The Patriots exploited that schedule to get to a Super Bowl in Drake May's second year. The change in that strength of schedule, um, is amazing, right? To the, to the- Yep...
6:39
to the much harder schedule, and it needs to be said. And for those who dismiss it, you should, you know, dismiss it at your own peril. That is why more than any other reason the Patriots are where they are.
6:50
Not really a distant second place, right? It's, it's minus 125 for the Bills to win the division, plus 120 for the Patriots. So, um, there you go. Super close. Yeah, b- Super close. Based off win totals, let's see.
7:04
You have the Bills with the 14th easiest strength of schedule, Patriots 12th easiest this year. Okay. Um, AL... Excuse me, AL. A- [laughs] AFC, uh, you wanna go south or north first? Yeah, let's go up north.
7:20
Where do you want- Ravens minus 115- Let's go north... favorites, Bengals plus 194, Steelers plus 510, Browns 21-1. Gil, I don't know about you.
7:30
I don't think I'm gonna have a bet here, but man, have I heard a lot of Bengals love this off-season.
7:35
A lot of Bengals love, a lot of Bengals love, and my reaction to that is, I think I speak for many, at some point in some off-season, we've all been a victim to this. Oh, yeah.
7:45
I don't, I don't know why this year is different than all the others, quite frankly, but some people want to believe that it is. I think the Ravens are the rightful favorite. I will say this again.
7:56
One of the most amazing stats in the VSiN NFL Betting Guide, which is still available here, um, not a single person of the 23 VSiN personalities, forget about winning the division, had the Steelers even getting a wild card.
8:11
So there you go, Steelers fans. Wow. Again, we do that at our own peril, and the Browns, one of these teams is not like the other. But I- Y-... I think this is the correct pecking order. I do. Yeah.
8:22
Yeah, look, I think, I think it should be a little bit closer between Ravens and Bengals, but you just laid it out really well, Gil.
8:30
I just don't know what's, what i- what i- at this point, after we've seen these two teams for this long now, w- why am I rushing to get a Bengals division bet in, right?
8:40
Uh, it's just there's too, there's been too many health concerns over the past couple years between Burrow, right, between different guys out there. Yes, I love the Dexter Lawrence addition.
8:50
Um, the fact that the Ba- Bengals are buying and adding on defense is awesome to see. I am terrified about the moment that Lamar Jackson begins to look old, how much this Ravens team could drop off.
9:00
But I think these are all things that we can attack in-season. I, I don't think I need to rush to get a bet in right now. I, I think these are things that I can focus on in-season.
9:09
So, um, that's kinda how I view the top. Steelers, I brought it up, what, last week. We got some laughs about it. Yeah, they would be one of the first teams I'd be looking at, uh, for the missed playoff price.
9:19
Uh, that was one that jumped out to me. And then the Browns, I did bet under the Browns win total.
9:23
I got six and a half, paid a little extra to bet that, but that is one of the bets that I have already is Browns under six and a half at minus 130.
9:32
AFC South's pretty interesting, too, because again, Texans and Jaguars, most people feel that one of those two teams wins the division. It's priced that way. Yeah.
9:41
Texans are the short shot, but the Jaguars, uh, a plus 110 on the Texans, plus 245 on the Jaguars. The Colts didn't get much love in the NFL Betting Guide either.
9:52
Um, there wasn't a, it wasn't a null set on, in terms of wild card, but it was only, like, one or two that had 'em- Mm-hmm... getting to the playoffs. That's it. Um, and then the Titans bringing up the rear.
10:04
There was only two people that had the Titans making the playoffs, and both of those people had the Titans winning the division, which I thought was a pretty interesting anomaly there.
10:12
It- But I, I think, Kelly, this is exactly the correct pecking order here as well. Not to be boring, but I do. Yeah, I, I, no, I, I agree. I think I will end up on a Jags division play here. I, I, I...
10:24
They proved enough to me last year, Gil.
10:26
I, I really like what, what that coaching staff has done there on both sides of the ball, and it finally feels like with some weapons around him now, you are seeing Trevor Lawrence kinda take that next step forward.
10:37
So I, I'm pretty excited a- about what Jacksonville could do this year.
10:41
I just think when I look at the betting options for that team, I'd rather bet division at, like, a plus 250 price as compared to going over the win total.
10:51
I, I, j- just 'cause I think there's a high- the higher end payout possibility I'd rather go for with this team, especially with the Texans that I think they're, I think they're kinda the same old story, which also means to be high floor, lower ceiling, right?
11:05
The defense is so good. Like, I don't think they're gonna fall off the map completely, but man, the offense, I'm getting a little sick and tired of, uh, uh, of, of buying in on kinda y- the past couple years.
11:15
We'll s- we'll save the AFC West for later- Yeah... because I do think it's the most interesting of all the divisions in the AFC by far. Yeah, I'm with you. Right?
11:22
With the Chiefs, uh, and Patrick Mahomes expected to start the season at this point. All signs point to that. Obviously, the Broncos coming off a great season.
11:31
The Chargers, a perennial, in, in the same vein as the Bengals, a perennially loved team every off-season. And leave the Raiders out of it. One team is not like the others.
11:40
But we'll get, uh, the, uh, thoughts on the odds there coming up. Joe Sheehan in the meantime, Major League Baseball on the other side. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the Sports Betting Network.
11:49
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13:31
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13:40
Scan the QR code or visit justwinbetsbaby.com today, and start betting smarter with Just Win Bets, Baby. The name says it all. Gil Alexander in San Francisco, Kelly Bidlin, uh, over there in, uh, Las Vegas. We did get...
13:55
So I, I, you know, I have a screen over here, so I didn't see that you were trying to motion earlier to Darnell about what sport we were going with there, but, uh, Jeremy Pucko says, "Kelly, next time fall off your chair holding your leg."
14:07
Yeah. "Can't mistake that one for soccer." [laughs] That was pretty good. That was pretty good. The, uh...
14:12
I did bring, along with American headbands to the, to the July 4th party, Gil, I did bring a red and yellow card, which I, you know, I, I, I knew I was gonna get out of control with immediately and become annoying 'cause it was like drunk Kelly running up and giving people yellow cards for things that they did at the party.
14:27
[laughs] I had a lot of fun with it, but I'm sure it was annoying as hell. Did you? Oh, no, not at all. That sounds not annoying at all. Right, yeah.
14:34
Did you, uh, did you have to issue a red card to anybody, and if so, who? Oh, God, I did bust it out once, but I don't remember why. I don't remember why at this point. I had a good time.
14:44
Oh, was it Darnell for being late? Oh. Darnell was late. Darnell for being late. I don't know if that deserved a red card, though. That sounds- Darnell for being late? Yeah. Yeah.
14:51
Uh, do we have Joe Sheehan yet, or is Joe, uh, charging? Joe's gonna join us next segment, Gil. Okay. You wanna talk some- As was always the plan. [laughs] And Kelly definitely didn't screw up.
14:59
[laughs] As, as apparently was always the plan. I'm just learning, folks. Um, you wanna talk some golf? We didn't get a chance- Yeah... to talk golf this week. Yeah. I, you know what, Gil?
15:10
I am, like, really, really excited about this Scottish Open.
15:13
Now, if you listen to Long Shots, and I recommend you do if you are a golf bettor out there, uh, you will often hear Matt make the joke, and it's true, that, that nobody gets more excited about betting a golf tournament than Kelly Bidlin after a win.
15:27
And that, that is true. That's fair. It's a fair criticism, okay? But this is, the Scottish Open this year is awesome, Gil, 'cause this is, do you know this is the first time outside of a major
15:38
we are going to have the LIV and PGA Tour guys facing off now in, what has it been, 40 years, three years, four years? Wow.
15:46
'Cause you are starting to have some of the LIV guys re-qualify, and this is a split DP World Tour/PGA Tour event that we have this week. Remember the confusion last week?
15:57
We were talking about whether this is a signature event. Not a signature event, 'cause it's not just a PGA Tour event. PGA Tour and DP World Tour. So you do have Jon Rahm in here. You have Tyrrell Hatton in this field.
16:10
It is a very much major-like field. Uh, just real quick, tournament details. It is a full field event, 156 players, which is pretty rare to see on the PGA Tour these days, and you're not gonna see much of going forward.
16:22
Top 65 in ties. This is at the Renaissance Club over there in Scotland. This was always the great story of the rich Americans with the 99-year lease off the duke there, uh- Wow... for the land to build this golf course.
16:36
So- Can I, can I interrupt you- Absolutely... before you launch into this? Please do. Before you launch into this handicap, back to the LIV thing, 'cause we haven't talked about this in a while. Mm-hmm.
16:44
Does this reintroduction of LIV players, is this going well so far? Is there tension? Does it have anything to do possibly with handicapping, or is that impossible to associate with handicapping? Uh, you know what?
16:59
I, well, I think the best thing that I can answer about that, Gil, is I don't really think it, it's gonna affect handicapping much at all.
17:05
I, look, I think you, you could say that it's difficult, but I could've always said this, right?
17:11
It's, it's difficult to get a grasp on where the LIV guys are at, especially with the, I mean, this LIV season, where the LIV season currently is, is we have no idea if there's gonna be another event or not.
17:22
A- a- and it, [laughs] we don't know if the season's gonna finish. We don't know if this is gonna continue on or if they're just gonna completely pull, uh, pull the cord on this.
17:30
So you do have some, you're gonna see a lot of these guys, Hatton, Rahm, and some of the other LIV players, over on the DP World Tour playing out the rest of this season as much as they can, 'cause this is where they start to gain back some of their world golf ranking points, um, and kinda can get back into PGA Tour events, et cetera, et cetera.
17:50
The point is, though, I think for, like, like, when we go to talk about, you know, even Rahm this week or the Open next week, it really is not only the, the, the LIV guys kinda out of sight, out of mind, but even more so now because these events have been so few and far between.
18:06
And so all the guys being incorporated back in, they made all their untold hundreds of millions of dollars or whatever their individual, you know, price tags were to go over to LIV- Yep... in the first place.
18:17
And that's it? They, they sort of get away with it in the end? Pay, pay their fines, have to, have to, you know, work their way back up on the tours.
18:24
Uh, but yeah, there are, I, I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, but, uh, you know, Rahm and these guys did pay fines, uh, to get back onto the DP World Tour, but, uh, yeah.
18:32
The, the money, uh, nothing to compare to with what they took- No... from, uh, from- No... LIV Golf, so yeah. Okay. But, but there's no, there's no handicapping angle to this at all?
18:41
I don't really, I don't really think so- Yeah... except for you could just, you could just keep saying it's even tougher now, uh, to, to get a grasp on some of these LIV guys.
18:48
I actually think, Gil, we, I think we brought this up, uh, around the PGA, I wanna say, when the LIV stuff was really kind of coming out, that it looked like this was done, uh, and could be done any day now, when that news was coming out.
19:01
I think that was probably the trickiest tournament, just 'cause you didn't know if that, where pe- where guys' heads were at, right?
19:07
Where, where's a DeChambeau, where are Rahm, uh, where are their heads at thinking, thinking f- uh, ahead towards their future?
19:13
They know they're gonna be playing in these majors, but what's next with what seems like their league crumbling around them?
19:19
I, I think at this point they've already accepted it's done, and they're thi- uh, they're looking ahead at this, uh, at this point. Sorry to have interrupted. What do you got? No, you're good.
19:28
Um, so the odds board looks like this. Scottie Scheffler, +490, has taken a little money over at DraftKings. I did see him above 5/1 yesterday. Uh, Rory McIlroy, +960. Rahm comes in then at 13/1. Xander Schauffele, 19/1.
19:44
Ludwig, 1950. Tommy Fleetwood, 20-1, uh, 20/1. Matt Fitzpatrick, 21/1. And then we drop to Chris Gotterup at 27/1. Love the field this week.
19:56
Reminder when we go to this course, I, and this has become one of my favorite courses to watch on TV. It's gorgeous, it's beautiful. Uh, reminder though, it's not a true links course setup.
20:07
So what we're gonna see next weekend, uh, at the Open, not exactly the same as what you're getting in Scotland this week.
20:13
You do have a few holes that are right along the water that very much will look like very links style golf, and you don't have, you have some of the traditional, like there's no bunkers in front of the greens, so guys can play it on the ground if they want to lead up to the greens.
20:26
And you have very large greens, 7,000 square feet, uh, fescue grass all over the golf course. But outside of that, Gil, it's not very links style.
20:35
So what we've kind of seen now at this event, where we've only seen this for five years, where it's been the split event, uh, four years.
20:43
Chris Gotterup, Chris Gotterup winning last year at 100/1, and then Robert McIntyre, Rory McIlroy, and Xander Schauffele in the four years where it has been a split event.
20:54
And I, I think I just heard a roar behind me, Gil. Egypt, 1-0 up on Argentina. Yeah. Happened about five minutes ago.
21:01
I was gonna, I, I didn't wanna interrupt and be rude, but yes, uh, Yasser Ibrahim puts Egypt up one-nil in the early going, so, uh, Argentina behind the eight ball, but a long way to go. Wow. Okay. All right.
21:14
Um, so yeah, we will have full breakdown on long shots later today, myself and Wes Reynolds, Matt Brown with a week off. Uh, you do have the ISCO Championship going on this week as well.
21:23
They do the two kind of split events. I will tell you the golfers that I'm looking at early, and, and, and also just to, to finish up on the course, weather will come into play here.
21:32
Uh, it, it doesn't look like it's, it projected to be very windy right now, but again, you are gonna play a few holes right on the ocean there, so usually always comes into play to some degree.
21:42
But the, the m- how much it, uh, how much it comes into play has mattered in the past. Much more of a parkland setup, though. Driving distance has proven to be a key factor here, uh, in the past.
21:54
So really long hitters is what you're looking at, good approach games, and then, look, these are massive greens. They're tough to miss.
22:01
Around the green play will be tricky if you have to play from there and you don't want to play out of these bunkers. Uh, and the green speeds will be tough to get used to. But you see some of these guys.
22:12
This is a, this is a, a later in the year tournament for me, Gil, where I actually lear- lean on tournament history now, where more so this year than I have in years past, now that we're four years into this, 'cause it has been pretty sticky with the guys that have played well here and the guys that have played poorly here have kind of continued that, uh, that throughout the years that they've played.
22:32
So I, I think there are some guys to look at. Rory always play, plays well here. I am considering an outright play on him. Haven't gotten there yet, and then that's gonna kind of shape the rest of the outright card.
22:43
I do like Gotterup again this week. I know he just won last week. I know he won this event last year. Obviously last year, though, what he did here and at the British, it shows that these courses do not phase him.
22:53
The distance off the tee matters.
22:55
Uh, two guys I did bet already, a- and look, I think this is a gross number for Wyndham Clark, but Wyndham Clark has shown to be one of the streakiest golfers on the PGA Tour, and he is playing lights out golf right now.
23:07
Uh, a T-5 at the Travelers. He won the US Open, obviously. T-11 at the RBC Canadian, the third at Memorial, a win at the Byron Nelson. He is playing incredible golf right now.
23:17
I don't know if the putting can keep up, uh, with what it's been at, especially with the massive change in greens and green speeds.
23:25
But man, has he been playing really, really well, and I would feel a little silly if he went over and won this thing and I didn't have a piece of him. So 33/1 at DraftKings right now.
23:34
I think that's a great number, uh, to get in on. I actually got 30/1 on him. And then I played the other Fitzpatrick. I think there's a really good chance this could be like a Fitzpatrick Fitzpatrick top five.
23:43
But I'm in on Alex at 55/1. What he's done off the tee and on approach has been really, really impressive.
23:50
He's only played here twice, missed cuts both times, but the, the top high level finishes on the PGA Tour continue for him. Rates out very highly for me. So I did bet him outright in top 20. Well done. Very thorough.
24:03
Chris Gotterup, by the way, trying to be the first back-to-back consecutive week winner on the PGA Tour since Scheffler did it last year twice.
24:11
Uh, Arnold Palmer followed by the TPC, then the Masters followed by the RBC Heritage. Joe Sheehan next on the Numbers Game.
24:19
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25:10
And we did get some clarification earlier in the week that if your current VSiN subscription goes to, I don't know, let's just say November of this year, then those two years for you will start- Mm-hmm...
25:21
once your current subscription ends. So there's that as well. Um, just wanna update again a couple things here.
25:27
Uh, Naomi Osaka, after Drew and I just went, [laughs] went on and on about Osaka, uh, she l- dropped the first set to Karolina Muchova in a tiebreaker, 7-4, because of course she lost the tiebreaker.
25:40
Um, in the first set, she loses down a set to Muchova. It is on serve currently in the second, Osaka up 3-2, but again, on serve there.
25:50
And then, uh, in the, uh, in the World Cup, early match of the day to determine a, uh, one of the last two quarterfinal positions, Egypt with the 1-nil lead over Argentina.
26:02
I know there's some folks, uh, around, uh, around our parts, Kelly, that have been on the show. Drew, I know, has Argentina- I'll be sweating... going to the, uh- Yeah... finals. You're sweating that one as well.
26:12
Down 1-nil, but again, uh, 60 minutes of soccer left, only in the, uh, 29th minute there. Yeah, a lot of numbers- Uh, Joe Sheehan-... real quick... yeah, go Sorry.
26:19
10- minus 105 on the 90-minute line, Argentina minus 105, Egypt plus 310, the draw plus 225 to advance. Argentina minus 245 live, Egypt plus 185 up 1-nothing, 1-nil.
26:33
If it is still 1, if it is still 1-nil at the half, I think I will get involved in the draw. I like it.
26:39
With, uh, both in regular sports books and here in California on Profit, Profit X, um, which by the way, has just been such a joy to play on here in the state of California, uh, doing these shows outside of Nevada.
26:52
Joe Sheehan is kind enough to join us. This was always the segment he was supposed to join us, because somebody had one job- Yeah... and he said Joe Sheehan was gonna be in the last segment.
27:01
But Joe is here when he's supposed to be. He is the author of the Joe Sheehan Newsletter. You can follow him on Twitter, @Joe_Sheehan. And Joe, first of all, good morning to you.
27:10
Uh, I wanna tell you that I had, uh, I had lunch with Joe Peta yesterday.
27:14
We were watching the Spain-Portugal game here at one of our favorite spots, uh, on Chestnut here in San Francisco, and he goes, "Gil, I gotta leave town. I'm going to the East Coast."
27:22
And I said, "Well, what are you, what are you going to the East Coast for?" And he said, "Well, two reasons." I can't remember the first one, but I do remember the second one. He goes, "I'm going to Camden Yards.
27:30
All of the Joe Sheehan Newsletter subscribers are having a get-together in Baltimore." We're jealous. I'm excited. Uh, it's the third straight year we've done this, done an event, a ballpark event at Camden Yards.
27:42
Had about 50 people show up. We get a suite. We talk ball for a few hours.
27:46
Last year, we got rained on, uh, with the Angels playing, so that actually works, 'cause you're hanging out in a suite, you're having a good time. I'm really looking forward. I love seeing guys I see once a year.
27:54
Some subscribers I never see at all. I've never met Joe, and I'm really excited- Oh, wow... that he's coming to this. So, [clears throat] you know, I read his book 1,000 years ago, so, you know, I know the name.
28:04
Um, I just never actually gotten to meet him. So swapped emails... Excuse me, guys. [clears throat] Yeah, you're fine. I'm, I'm jealous, man. Um- I wish I could be out there with those guys.
28:11
Yeah, it's, it's gonna be a good time. I'm really looking forward to it.
28:14
Can you believe, by the way, Joe, I saw that, I saw this stat, I think I even said it on air last week, that Camden Yards is now the ninth oldest ballpark in Major League Baseball? Is that amazing? It's,
28:26
it's really something. They actually gave them a bunch of money tied to the Ravens, uh, staying in town to renovate it as well. But, you know, you think about a 30-year-old ballpark, and that's...
28:34
You think of it being old, but you walk into Camden Yards, and it's like you're back in 1993. It's like it's just opened. It has that same feel to it. Just a really wonderful place to watch a game. Yeah.
28:44
Wrigley, Fenway, or I guess Fenway, Wrigley, I guess, one, two, is Fenway, Wrigley, Chavez Ravine, three. Uh, yes. Yes. Yes. Those are the three oldest, and then after that is, uh, Angel Stadium.
28:55
Angel Stadium, that's the answer to that trivia question. What's fourth? Angel Stadium. Uh, okay. Thank you, Cal. Speaking of the Orioles, you do like the Orioles today. [clears throat] I do.
29:04
Um, I like to find games where there are a couple of different ways to get to the window, and you look at this one tonight, the Cubs starting Matthew Boyd, two starts off the IL. He hasn't gotten out of the fifth inning.
29:14
Six strikeouts against four walks, just not that effective yet. At the back end of that game, after Boyd leaves, you've got the Cubs bullpen, which has been terrible.
29:21
It's actually the worst bullpen in baseball since the start of June. They've had some injury issues, some ineffectiveness. So the Orioles can get at this a couple different ways.
29:29
They're running Shane Baz out there, and while the ERA isn't great, you look at his last month, a 3.25 FIP, a 30 to 12 strikeout-to-walk ratio. So again, there are a lot of different ways the Orioles can get this one.
29:41
I've got them at minus 108. Okay. Baltimore Orioles. Um, and then the Athletics and the Tigers, both of these teams on the outside looking in of the American League playoff picture as we approach the All-Star break.
29:54
Both teams still harboring hope. It is Tarik Skubal on the hill for the Tigers today against JT Ginn. How are you playing this? Yeah, I don't understand this line. I think this is off by at least a run.
30:08
Tarik Skubal has a 4 through, a 4.03 ERA and a 5.04 FIP since coming off the IL in four starts. But that's entirely due to a fluky home run to fly ball ratio.
30:18
He's given up a home run on a third of his fly balls in those four starts. That's not going to hold up. You look at the underlying numbers 30 strikeouts and, and against two walks in those four starts.
30:30
That's the pitcher he is. He goes up tonight against an A's team that is just not a good offense when they're not playing in Sacramento or Las Vegas. 24th in weighted runs created, plus when playing on the road.
30:40
So you've got a great starting pitcher, [clears throat] a bad offense in the A's, and then JT Ginn, who you get him out of Sacramento or Vegas, and he's got an ERA of two...
30:49
Uh, a little under, uh, excuse me, a 2.31, 49 to 14 strikeout to walk ratio. This is effectively two aces and a bad offense tonight. I like the under eight a lot. This is my favorite play of the day.
31:00
Astros getting close to being a 500 team, 45 and 48. The Nationals know everything about being a 500 team. They're 47 and 45. Yet, on the outside looking in in the National League, you like the over in this one. Yeah.
31:15
Your, your Jordan Alvarez MVP pick looks a lot better now as the Astros start to play better. He's gonna get a lot of credit if they get into contention, if they manage to steal a wild card slot here.
31:24
Uh, but you look at this game tonight, they... 12-11 last night, if you saw it. A bunch of home runs, a bunch of bad relief pitching. It- there have been 540 runs scored in Nats Park this year. That's nearly 12 per game.
31:36
Wow. It's the highest in Major League Baseball. That's amazing. Higher than Sutter Health, higher than, uh, Coors Field. There have been 984 runs scored in Nats games this year, almost 11 per game.
31:45
That also leads the league. It's even more than in Rockies games. So, you know, you've got two teams that they, you know, the Nats play high scoring games everywhere. They play very high scoring games at Nats Park.
31:55
You're getting a little bit of variance here with Tatsuya Imae. He has four quality starts in 12 starts. He also has four starts where he didn't make it out of the third at...
32:03
So you're kinda, you know, gambling on getting the, the version of Imae who gives up a lot of runs. So a little bit of a random an- outcome generator.
32:09
But even at that, nine runs in a park that's averaging about 12 runs a game, I'll take that every day. And you have a, uh, prop of the day for us as well? I feel like I've given this out like 13 times on this show.
32:22
[laughs] But we're going back, we're going back to Corbin Carroll, over one and a half total bases at plus money, uh, against the Padres.
32:29
You know, Carroll has, since his first full season in 2023, he's top 20 in OPS against right-handers. He's top 20 in slugging against right-handers. Now, he's coming into this game in a bit of a slump.
32:41
3 for 29, not hitting the ball very hard. But he gets to face Germán Márquez, who against right-handers this year is allowing a 591 slugging. You know, they needed him. They've got to run him out there.
32:52
They don't have a, a deep rotation. But this is a guy who just gets sandblasted by left-handed hitters. So it's as good a matchup as it's gonna get for Carroll to come out of his slump.
32:58
So give me him two singles, a double, or likely as not, eight total bases, and I should have played a ladder. Joe, I wanna, uh, if, if you could, I'd love for you to chime in on a subject we were talking about earlier.
33:10
We were going through the Cy Young races, and we're going through Tom Tango's numbers vis-a-vis the betting markets. Jacob deGrom now all the way out to minus 650 on the National League side. Um, justified in my opinion.
33:24
Um, hope people got on him earlier.
33:26
The American League side is pretty fascinating because Cam Schlittler, after a great performance last night and a much needed one against the, uh, Tampa Bay Rays, Yankees get to within three of the Rays.
33:37
Three more games left in that set. But Schlittler has a great performance, bounce back from his last one. He's only, only, uh, short, uh, favor- or short plus money, right, Kelly? Short plus money- Yep...
33:50
on the, uh, AL Cy Young. Uh, in the AL Cy Young race. And Tango has him way out in front. Do you agree more with the betting market price or with the Tango landslide right now? With the betting market price.
34:05
Um, Tango's formula, as I understand it, is based on historical voting, which is the, the way you really wanna do this kind of thing.
34:11
However, when you look at modern voting, it does lean a little bit more towards the advanced stats.
34:17
And right now you have Schlittler, um, Joe Ryan, and Dylan Cease all kind of in the same range at the top of the American League. Ranger Suárez is up there as well.
34:26
If you look through the advanced metrics, this is a very close race, and I think the betting odds reflect that. Um, you know, Joe Ryan got into this the other day with seven shutout innings against the Yankees.
34:35
I do still have concerns that the Yankees are going to manage Schlittler's innings. Schlittler is a dangerous word to say on the air, guys. [laughs] Schlittler's innings- Yes. He is...
34:45
uh, towards the end of the season, 'cause they're gonna want him to make, they're gonna want him to make five, six starts in October.
34:50
So I think that's where Cease, Ryan, Suárez, some of these other guys can make up some ground down the road.
34:55
I agree right now, based on the numbers, Schlittler is the favorite, and I think Tango's, uh, formula reflects that, but I think the innings edge that the other contenders are going to have will make up some of the ground in the second half.
35:08
Joe, uh, thank you so much. And enjoy Camden, enjoy your get-together. Wish we were there. Thanks so much, man. Come next year, guys. We will.
35:16
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
35:34
Back on a numbers game, live from San Francisco this week once again, Gil Alexander. Kelly Vidlin back in the VSiN studios in, uh, Las Vegas.
35:44
Uh, just to, uh, pull the curtain back, you guys probably wonder, "Hey, are all these, uh, are all these segments planned? Do you guys know where you're going?"
35:51
Uh, generally speaking, it's more of like a Curb Your Enthusiasm outline kind of thing, and then we kinda just go from there. Yeah. No script, believe it or not. Joe Sheehan, 12:30 Eastern, as scripted. Right. Right.
36:04
Um, but sometimes, uh, just like, just in the last break, Kelly will say something like this to me. Kelly, would you like to say what you said to me over the break?
36:10
Hey, ask me what, ask me what time I turned the volume off on the USA game last night. [laughs] Okay. Uh- Hey, Kelly. [laughs] Uh, what time did you turn the volume off of the USA game last night?
36:18
As soon as that third Belgium score, uh, goal was scored, Gil, it was volume up on the Summer League game with Darren Peterson and Cameron Boozer, who put on a show last night. Dude, these guys are gonna be so good.
36:32
Yeah. The guys at the top of the draft are gonna be so good. I, and you never- I, I always like to use the, the, the Summer League, it's really not good if you have a bad Summer League.
36:43
If you have a great Summer League, don't, don't try not to overreact to that. But it was hard not to overreact to Darren Peterson last night.
36:50
It, it was the all the different types of shots and scoring abilities that we have talked about through this draft process, everything was on display last night.
36:59
And he added 12 assists into the mix as well, as he will be kind of lead po- uh, you know, f- playing more of a point guard role, I think, going forward here in his career. Man, it was... Cam looked good, too.
37:10
Those two put on a show. Summer League in Vegas here starting on Thursday. Um, I'm excited, man. I'm excited to see what these rookies can do this year. Yeah, this was, uh, Salt Lake City Summer League. Yep.
37:20
Vegas has yet to start. Uh, Darren Peterson, 25 points, 12 assists in the Jazz 109 to 100 win. Cam Boozer, 18 points and seven boards. Boozer, uh, the short shot to win Rookie of the Year at plus 250.
37:37
But if Darren Peterson keeps doing that, that could change. You know- Yeah, interesting debate with JVT on that yesterday. It was, uh, I, you know, I, you know I love Darren Peterson.
37:46
I have a c- I think his ceiling on the scoring ability, I mean, I think we're talking he could be a top five, top three scorer w- in the NBA in, in three, four years. I think that, I think that's a legit possibility.
37:59
Uh, Cameron Boozer on the Grizzlies, though, I think he's the deserved favorite for Rookie of the Year. I just... He's gonna put up big numbers on a crap team.
38:08
And like this, like the Jazz and Wizards have like real players to play through, like that are, you know, [laughs] that are star players. I, I don't know the usage rates for those guys.
38:18
It's just gonna be hard to keep up with what Boozer's gonna be able to do in Memphis. The thing about Summer League, though, because, you know, people get really excited about it in Las Vegas. Yeah.
38:26
We all attend it year after year. I mean, who haven't we seen play in Summer League, right? From Wembanyama on down.
38:34
The issue, though, is that these huge prospects, like AJ D'Bansa scheduled to play for the Wizards, uh, Peterson obviously, Boozer, it, it usually comes down to lately they play like one game now. Yeah.
38:47
And then they sort of bounce. Didn't Cooper Flagg do that- Yep... if I'm not mistaken also? Well, and especially- Yeah...
38:52
these guys who start, who start in California, you know, in San F- San Francisco or Salt Lake City, um, where they're playing these games early.
38:58
I think they kinda were, like, you know, you ne- you never know how things are talked about behind the scenes.
39:03
But I, I would expect that you're gonna see Peterson and Boozer in at least one game here in Vegas, but that- Yeah... it, v- I'm gonna say at least 'cause I, that's all I'm expecting them to play. I'm with you.
39:14
They always play in one, but then after that it's, uh, it's dicey at that point. Um, we have a situation. Naomi Osaka is down a break now in the second set. She's down a set. Karolína Muchová- Man...
39:28
serving for the match. Serving for the match, uh, after the break. So that is not good. That is not good for our play on Osaka.
39:38
Uh, and then in the World Cup game, the World Cup match, uh, we are in added time in the first half. They, uh, added five minutes of added time. We're in the first or second minute of that.
39:48
Egypt still up one-nil on Argentina. Not only a favorite in this match- Ooh... but also one of the tournament favorites, of course, along with France, Spain, and that ilk.
40:00
So this would be, again, full half of soccer still to be played, if not more, but this would be the biggest upset of the, of the round of 16, I think- God, I think-... in the end...
40:12
I would think so, unless I'm missing someone off the top of my head. Unless, unless Paraguay was? I don't even think it was as big as this, so we'll see.
40:18
Um- L- uh, live numbers on the 90 minute, on the three-way line, Argentina plus 125. I know you mentioned the draw you might be interested in at half. That is two to one over at DraftKings right now.
40:28
Uh, looks we're getting close to the half, so you wouldn't expect these prices to change too, too much. Egypt plus 255. To advance markets, Argenti- Argentina still minus 210, Egypt plus 160 to advance.
40:42
Yeah, the interesting thing with, again, putting up live bets at a profit X is that unlike in a regular sportsbook, right, bets gets made. You make a live bet, bet gets, gets accepted.
40:55
You're matching, right, at a profit X. So here I am in California.
40:58
So I have to, if I'm, if I'm not doing it at halftime, let's say I'm doing it during play, I have to constantly be aware of score and not forget that my bet is up there and available. Right.
41:11
Because you can get caught with your pants down on that. Yep. Um, which I did on a bet last week. I forg- I, like completely got distracted. I had a draw bet out there. Oh, I got taken.
41:24
You know, it was like at a much less favorable price 'cause I, the game had moved on. So you have to be really aware of that kind of thing. You gotta be locked in. Um, bets. Red Sox most wins July, 80 to 1.
41:37
Red Sox, uh, at the White Sox tonight.
41:41
And, uh, it's a three-game set at Chicago on the, uh, on the south side, and then it is a three-game set headed into the break, uh, after that against, now I'm forgetting who they play after the White Sox.
41:53
It'll come to me. But it's, uh, it's six games. They gotta exploit this. They're three and one. They're one win behind the leaders here if our 80 to 1 ticket is to get home.
42:02
So Red Sox resume play after an idle game yesterday. You are on Argentina minus the one and a half here. You got work to do, man. Not great, Bob. Not looking great.
42:11
Argentina laying a goal and a half, and then I am on Colombia money line here later tonight with Paul Carr, plus 130s, uh, I think still available. The Red Sox play the Mets next. That's who you've got up next.
42:24
Thank you. Yes. Yes. After the White Sox, it's the Mets. And then you do have a play in the game tonight as well, right? Yeah, plus 130 on Colombia. Those are still available. I see plus 130s, plus 125s out there.
42:35
Dallin Cuff was on earlier from the, uh, airport lounge in Charleston, South Carolina. Uh, he is on the both teams to score no. So he thinks it is a to nil outcome between Colombia and Switzerland tonight.
42:51
He's got even money on that. That was Dallin Cuff's one play. He stayed away from this one, uh, this morning. Um, later on the show, also heard from, uh, several guests. Joe Sheehan joined us here moments ago.
43:05
He's got a bunch of baseball plays. He's on the Orioles today, uh, minus 103. Then he's on the Athletics Tigers under eight.
43:13
He's on the Astros Nationals over nine today, and then, uh, his one prop, I didn't say it, he beat me to it. I was like, "Haven't we seen this before?"
43:20
[laughs] Corbin Carroll over one and a half total bases for the Diamondbacks at plus 111 today. Uh, it's over.
43:28
Naomi Osaka loses in straights to Karolina Muchova, so there will be no, uh, non-hard court major added to Osaka's total of four. Karolina Muchova, uh, gets to the semifinals. She will, uh...
43:43
I believe she's paired with Coco Gauff, if I'm not mistaken, yes, in the semifinals. So Muchova against Gauff becomes a banger of a, uh, semifinal. Osaka, unbelievable.
43:54
Beats, uh, Sabalenka and can't get it done against the crafty Muchova. That is a loser, and it's not only a loser on the match.
44:01
I didn't end up playing it on the quarter because I had left Vegas, but at eight to one, I loved Osaka to win the quarter. That doesn't get home either, as Muchova beats her at the punch.
44:10
And the, the irony here being we've had Muchova in so many other tournaments- Hmm... through the years on the podcast. This was not one of them that we had her on, uh, grass.
44:18
But like I said, anybody on the ladies' side can win this, anybody who's still alive. And just when you think, like, "Oh, it's not Iga, it's gonna be Ayala. Oh, it's not Ayala? I bet it'll be Osaka. Oh, it's not Osaka?
44:30
Who's next," right? It's just an amazing thing. Mark Borchardt, uh, Brewers today, minus one and a half. He's got the Brewers on the run line. He's got the Tigers on the run line as well with Travis d'Arnaud on the hill.
44:42
Um, he's also then putting both of those money lines into the base winner parlay of the day at plus 121. So Borchardt, Brewers, money l- uh, Brewers run line, Tigers run line, Brewers, Tigers, money line parlay.
44:57
And then Drew Dincic, uh, he is on Switzerland tonight to advance, uh, against Colombia. Switzerland to advance into the quarterfinals. Um, as Drew is, uh, sweating out this Argentina one before he even gets to that.
45:12
Yeah. Uh, it is halftime now. One-nil Egypt as their earlier goal from Yasser Ibrahim is h- has held up this thus far. One-nil Egypt as the, uh, two teams take the break now and talk it over.
45:26
Um, boy, oh boy, this could be, a- after what has been a, uh, a round of 16 where you're like, "Okay, the favorites have all gotten through," this could be a sort of seismic one right here. Yeah, it would be massive.
45:36
I would not like it for bets, but there's one positive thing if this happens, Gil. It clears this side out a little bit more for Norway. It does, and it has messy golden boot ramifications as well. Yes. Right?
45:50
For those who have Erling Haaland or Harry Kane or Kylian Mbappe, that would be huge to have Argentina knocked out. But again, full half of soccer to be played. We've done all we can do. Prop Points is next from VSiN.
46:02
Enjoy from the Sports Betting Network. [upbeat music]
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