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Jul 8, 2024
A Numbers Game | July 8, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | July 8, 2024 | Hour 2
00:00
44:39
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Transcript
0:07
The numbers told the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:15
Hour number two of a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin.
0:24
Mike Samich will join us later this hour. Our own Mike Sam- uh, Samich, co-host of The, uh, Handle. Samo bombing us with all of his plays.
0:32
Um, and here momentarily we will, uh, hook up with Cleve TA to, uh, talk NFL with him with some just, uh, just amazing stuff in his guide.
0:43
I'm just, uh, I'm text bombing Kelly right now with, uh, contact information as well. Um, Cleve, uh, did his, uh, his NFL betting guide, and I should note again, the VSiN NFL betting guide for subscribers. Check it out.
0:57
Again, just an amazing bit of work from Matt Humans, Adam Burke, and company, Zach Cohen, everybody just contributing. They do a wonderful job with all of our betting guides.
1:07
Um, the NFL obviously the most popular of all of them, but every sport, to be quite honest with you. It's one of, uh, one of VSiN's great assets. But Cleve is one of these guys that we've had on the Megapod.
1:18
Now he's a Megapod regular, I think we can call him that. Um, and he's one of the great NFL Twitter follows there is, and he joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter at Cleve TA.
1:30
That's C-L-E-V-T-A. Um, and of course, he joins us now from Cleveland, Ohio. How you doing, Cleveland? What's going on? It's go- go- what's going on, guys? Good Monday morning to you.
1:42
Cleveanalytics.com of course is the, uh, website as well. Um, th- first of all, let me just say this about your guide.
1:49
I said this to you off air, I wanna say it to you on air, which is one of the things, and I think VSiN solved this as well with ours, but you certainly did with yours, which is that pro football betting guides
2:01
in the past, and we really respect the people that have authored them, but sometimes they're kind of tough to read, right? Like, there's just, there's a lot of information. It's almost like paralysis by analysis.
2:13
Um, it's, it's almost too dense. You have really solved that. I just wanna say that in advance. Well done, sir. Well, I appreciate that. Yeah.
2:24
I, I, there are a lot of good, uh, preview guides that are out there, and, uh, some are [laughs] a little more extensive than, than mine.
2:31
I just felt like the average football fan just wants to kind of get all the information that is important and necessary in one page, and so that was really my goal all along, is just kind of get, get to the, the heart of the matter and what are the key points.
2:44
And so I tried to do that with, uh, with each team, kind of one page per team.
2:47
And it's hard because I'll write and I'll be over by a couple hundred words, and I have to go back and, uh, and edit it down to make sure we get it to one page.
2:55
But I think it, it actually helps refine the process and kind of, like, gets rid of some of the fluff, and so that, that was really the goal with, with the preview.
3:02
And yours is completely free, and you have no intention of ever charging anybody with this, and you say it has really helped you, your process? Yeah. You know, so I, I...
3:13
This is a lot more formalized in the last, uh, I think this is my third year doing this.
3:17
And so I've always in the past, getting ready for the NFL season, have, um, kind of informally looked back at, you know, 202- uh, the prior season and, um, roster changes and some of the, you know, so- some of my metrics and things like that to get ready for the upcoming season.
3:33
And so it helps me, you know, kind of shape my, my win totals and futures and all those sorts of things.
3:38
But this obviously is, is that on steroids, having to put it on, uh, uh, pen to paper, if you will, and spending, you know, hundreds of hours putting it all together formally.
3:46
It really helps, uh, refine, you know, what I think going into the season.
3:50
And, you know, his, the last couple of years I've really, um, had my best results from a ATS and totals perspective in the first month of the season.
3:58
I think it's because of all of the work I do in the off-season to get ready, and I, I think I have an edge on the market when it comes to that.
4:05
And so I have a strong opinion one way or another, and I'll, I'll kind of attack those teams that, uh, I think I have an edge on, uh, uh, either to fade or, or to back.
4:14
And so, um, yeah, it, it's really helped my process and I, I don't have any intention to, to charge for it. It's, you know, it's a lot of my time, but again, it's, it's helping me.
4:22
And, and look, I, I don't, I don't necessarily need the, uh, the, the, the income from this. I, I don't do this, um, full time. I have a, a full time career in, in finance and I'm doing, doing just fine.
4:32
And then so this, you know, if it can help people with their process and help them in the off-season and, um, then I have no problems, you know, giving it away for free.
4:40
So I'll do it as long as I can do it, as long as, uh, my wife allows me to spend [laughs] all that time- [laughs]... in May and June to get it ready, uh, I'll be able to do it. She's like, "TA, we have 75 children.
4:50
Maybe not do the guide anymore?" [laughs] Yeah. That kind of thing. I mean, she's great. She lets me do it. Like I, I've had to, to spend nights and, um, you know, find, find time to do it.
4:59
But, uh, she, she's been great and, and it's helped me, uh, kind of put things together.
5:03
I, I kind of cram in the last, uh, week or two to definitely to get it done, and so, uh, it's very helpful to have a, a, you know, s- support system there to, to get it all done.
5:12
So it's not, it's not easy, but, uh, but it, it's worth it. And last thing before we dive in, um, just to give you some street cred here, y- your finishes and contests, can you just list a few of those?
5:23
Oh, gosh, I don't have it in front of me.
5:25
But I've, I've finished, um, I've been in the Circa Millions and then prior to that, the Westgate SuperContest, um, for, you know, over a decade now, and I think I've finished 60% or higher, uh, at least three or four times.
5:37
And so, um, you know, I, I haven't cashed anything huge. I've been in the top 100 a couple times, and I was actually first place I think four or five years ago after the, uh, quarter, quarter mark.
5:49
Um, so I've been, uh, b- been kind of flirting, but just haven't broken- Um, to, to kind of top 20 just yet. But, um, I'm, I've been flirting a lot, and hopefully, uh, hopefully I can kick down that door one day.
6:02
Uh, but, uh, you know, consistency, I think, is, has been the key for me. It's just a matter of really getting, uh, getting that outlier performance to- Yeah... uh, to really cash something big.
6:11
Well, you keep hitting 60% as often as you do, one day, one of these years it will go that way. Let, let's start with, you did a great job of, of quantifying for us the rate at which NFL alternate season win totals cash.
6:28
Uh, you do it by units, you do it by dollar size. I wanna put up the graph that you did so nicely in your, in your guide.
6:35
Uh, the percentage of win totals over the years, over the last decade, that have been off by two-plus wins, and that have been off by three-plus wins.
6:44
And you can sort of take it from here as we put this up on the screen.
6:49
Yeah, I think we, uh, you know, we tend to think that these, these markets are just so efficient and, um, you know, win totals end up, uh, kind of falling exactly in line with, with where you see them in the preseason.
7:01
It's just not really the case. I give, uh, you know, Drew at, uh, you know, Wilcapper, uh, big credit, 'cause he, he kind of came up with this a couple of years ago. Yes.
7:08
And I dug a little bit deeper and, and s- and, you know, kind of expanded a little bit. But, you know, [laughs] reality, win totals are not really that close when it, when it's all said and done.
7:18
I mean, like I said, uh, last year was actually the lowest we've seen in a decade in terms of only 38% of the win totals were off by two-plus wins, but, you know, we saw two-thirds of teams were off by two-plus, uh, the prior year.
7:31
And, uh, you can see generally it's in kind of that 40 to 60% range, and then by three-plus wins, last year was, was, uh, pretty low at 16%. But, you know, historically it's about a third in general.
7:41
And so that, I've always thought that, um, it made sense to, if you like a team, to kind of go over or, or under, just, you know, sprinkle a little bit on the alts, uh, either way. And especially, you know, I, I...
7:54
If you look at the data a little bit deeper, it's not in here, but, uh, you know, avoid taking alt unders on the really bad teams, [laughs] uh, 'cause those, those don't do well.
8:02
And avoid taking alt overs on the really good teams, the double-digit teams, and kind of focus on everything in the middle, uh, if you wanna, uh, find a little bit, um, a little bit of, uh, you know, plus money on, on some of those kind of one or two wins away from, from the current win totals.
8:16
And that's really where you get the biggest profits, uh, are in that kind of middle tier. And that's a lot of where your rookie quarterbacks lie, right?
8:24
Like, where there's just not a lot of information, where you have roster turnover, especially at quarterback or at head coach.
8:29
You get a lot of kinda, uh, unknown information and, and rosters that look a lot different, and coaching staffs look a lot different from year to year, and that's where you see a lot of the upside surprises or, kind of downside surprises.
8:39
So, uh, those are really where, you know, I like to focus, and I think the data says historically is where you see the biggest outliers. Yeah.
8:46
It's just, you know, it, it's the biggest PSA I think we can give anybody pre-flop before a season. Really bet alternate. Look at the alternate season win totals markets.
8:54
And as you point out, 2022, [laughs] two years ago, 66%, uh, two-plus wins off, three-plus wins off 38%. And look at 2016, Kelly. 63% two-plus wins off, 47% of teams- That's crazy... three-plus wins off.
9:10
I, I mean, Cl- Cleve did such a great job with this last, you know, last year- Yeah... with, with m- marking this stuff down, too. I remember going through the same thing last year.
9:17
But I mean, like, 2023 was almost a bit startling [laughs] when I saw those were sold. Yeah. Where you're like, compared to- That's right... what we've seen recently, uh, not nearly as much. Cleve gonna stay with us.
9:26
Kind enough to stay with us for two segments. Let's get in this one question here before the break, which is, give us a team this year, um, that you feel, a surprise team that you feel will make the playoffs.
9:40
I like the Vikings this year. Um, and their win total is hovering right around seven, uh, depending on some of the, some of the juice and some of the sites you look at. But I, I think that this is a, an undervalued team.
9:52
Uh, I hit on, you know, last year I liked Tampa as kind of a, you know, a surprise team, not necessarily to, to win their division, but to, to, to exceed their win total and to surprise teams.
10:02
And it's one, one of those kinda y- you've got these veteran teams, good quality rosters that are just a, an unknown at quarterback, and I think they get depressed in the market.
10:11
I mean, Minnesota has a very good offensive line. They've got the best receiver in the NFL in Justin Jefferson. You have TJ Hawkinson at tight end. You have a, a, an excellent pickup in Aaron Jones at running back.
10:21
I don't think people really, you know, paid attention to, you know, to that pickup, and he's gonna add a lot, uh, either whether it's a, a rookie quarterback in JJ McCarthy or, or Sam Darnold.
10:31
And you've got Brian Flores on defense who can take any... He's already proven, he can take any roster, literally, on defense, and he will, you know, blitz the hell, hell out of opponents.
10:39
He'll, he'll scheme his way to at least kind of a league average ranking or even better. And so I think you've got the ingredients there in the coaching staff.
10:46
Uh, Kevin O'Connell, uh, I think is a really good offensive mind. And if you just get, you know, decent quarterback play, no matter who the starter is, I think you can really surprise.
10:56
And if you, you know, if JJ McCarthy's better than people expect or if Sam Darnold, you know, s- c- has a Geno Smith or a Baker Mayfield-like, you know, resurgence, we've seen this the last couple of years of a veteran to kind of come out of nowhere with a second or third chance, they can really, uh, I think have a shot at winning this division.
11:14
And I don't think the schedule is that difficult. This, uh, I think there's only one, kind of a top 10 level team that they play all season at home.
11:21
So they've got a good, uh, a good enough schedule, I think, to, to exceed the, the expectations, and I think they have the roster to do it. And the coaching staff really is a big one for me.
11:31
So, um, that's a team I think has a shot to not only, you know, clear their alternate win total, but to, to win the, uh, to make it, to make the playoffs, essentially.
11:39
I think that will surprise a lot of people, for sure.
11:41
By the way, Cleve has another surprise team in his guide, but we'll let you get the guide to find out what that other team is that he thinks could be a surprise playoff team.
11:48
When we come back, a surprise team to miss the playoffs, his coach of the year thoughts. That's on the other side with Cleve T.A., Numbers Game, Visa, the eSports Betting Network....
12:03
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12:19
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13:08
That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. And I cannot stress enough, once again, what a great job that Matt Youmans and, uh, Adam Burke and company have done once again. Another Rembrandt from those guys. Absolutely. Yeah.
13:21
I wonder if Adam Burke did his, uh, NASCAR bet this week. [laughs] That's right. I, I don't know why that la- that left a lasting impression on me from last time. You were really, you were really into it.
13:29
You were like, "Did I just ask about-" I kept asking, "Was-" "Did you just say Adam Burke did NASCAR?" I was like, "Yes, I did." I didn't know, yeah, I just did not know that he, uh, bet NASCAR. Yeah, man. Bets a lot.
13:37
Like you said, we, we got a couple guys in the network. I mean, him, Wes, I mean- Yeah... a couple others that, man, the amount, amount of sports they get into is impressive. It is impressive, for sure.
13:46
Uh, Cleve TA is impressive as well with his betting guide, again, free. Uh, he's on Twitter @CleveTA. That's C-L-E-V-T-A. Um, I believe he's a fan of the Browns. I, I, I believe that's the case. Cleveanalytics.com.
13:59
You are a fan of the Cleveland Browns, yes? Yeah, yes, all, all fans c- uh, of, uh, of all Cleveland teams. You know, me and Adam Burke, we're, uh, Cleveland guys, so- Yeah...
14:09
um, definitely got that in our blood and, and when you're from the Midwest, that doesn't, uh, it doesn't go away no matter where you move to, so, uh, yeah, bi- big fans of, of Cleveland.
14:18
By the way, believer in Deshaun Watson, uh, returning to top form? What do you feel about that? Not, I, I wouldn't say elite form.
14:26
It's just hard to do that after this couple of years, but I think he's got, he, he was starting to turn the corner, um, you know, against that, that Ravens, uh, they went into Baltimore, came back from multiple scores down.
14:37
Uh, he was, he didn't throw an incompletion the second half of that game, and then that's when he got hurt and the season was over.
14:41
So he had shown signs of getting better, um, but I, I think all he has to do is really be a top 16 type of quarterback. Um, and I think that, you know, the Browns can make the playoffs.
14:52
We saw what they did with no quarterbacks last year, essentially f- uh, f- you know, four quarterbacks, uh, Joe Flacco off, off his couch, you know, good system, uh, good talent. They added Jerry Jeudy.
15:02
Hopefully they get Amari Cooper signed and, um, I think he could be good enough, but yeah, there's clearly a question mark [laughs] after the last two years.
15:09
Yeah, and I know you're high on Jerry Jeudy too, which is not the case for, for many. That's kind of outlying opinion for some as well. Uh, okay, you gave us the Vikings as a surprise team to make the playoffs.
15:20
Give us a surprise team that you think will miss. Well, so I'll, I'll mention real quick, you guys talked about it last year, maybe you'll do it again, uh, for a segment.
15:28
Uh, 20 straight years of, uh, it may be longer, I just haven't gone back, where, uh, a team that's, um, expected to be under 500 has made the playoffs. We did that, remember we did that exercise last year? Yes. Mm-hmm.
15:39
Um, and so that's, you know, Minnesota fits that. Um, and on the other side, we've had the same thing with, uh, a, a team that is, you know, favored to make the playoffs [laughs] that didn't make it the next year.
15:50
So I, I went with Dallas 'cause I know there's gonna be at least one, probably more. I think that, and obviously it's, it's kinda common that, that Dallas is, is being depressed in the marketplace.
16:00
You know, they've historically been really good in the regular season, won 12 games back-to-back, uh, seasons. I just think from a talent, uh, perspective, they, they didn't add anybody at all.
16:11
I mean, I think Ezekiel Elliott's [laughs] the only kinda rotational player, maybe Eric Kendricks if you wanna count, you know, a linebacker, uh, on defense a- as a guy that they've added, but they lost five starters.
16:23
Um, they've got two new starters on the offensive line. You lose Tyron Smith, who's a mainstay at left tackle. Uh, you're sticking a rookie in there in Tyler Guyton, who's, what, 21 years old out of Oklahoma.
16:32
You've got, uh, your center is gone. He went to Washington, and you're replacing him with a, a street free agent, uh, Brock Hoffman, who's barely played in the NFL.
16:40
So your, your, you know, pass strength, that offensive line is gone. You've got question marks at, you know, number two receiver outside of CeeDee Lamb. You don't really have...
16:49
You get Brandin Cooks, who's, you know, getting older, getting long in the tooth, hasn't had, I think, 800 yards in, in a number of years. CeeDee Lamb is, is worried about his contract.
16:57
We don't know what's going on with Dak and his contract. You lose Dan Quinn, [laughs] the defensive coordinator. It's like all of these things,
17:04
uh, are off a team that, you know, won 12 games and then, you know, got blown out in the playoffs against a good Green Bay, uh, Green Bay team. And if you look last year, they feasted off of really bad competition.
17:14
I mean, you, they beat the Giants, Jets, Patriots, [laughs] uh, Chargers, the G- you know, Giants twice, the Panthers, Washington twice.
17:22
Like, they beat some really, really bad teams, and then against the Niners, they lose by 32. They lose by 21 to Buffalo. Uh, they lose by 16 to Green Bay in the playoffs.
17:31
Like, any time they, they stepped up in competition, they really struggled. They got a little tougher schedule this year.
17:36
So all those things, I think that D- uh, Dallas can win, you know, eight or nine games, but missing the playoffs is, is kind of who I would, uh, that's who I would take to, to miss the playoffs.
17:45
Dave Ross and Femi Adebife are very angry. [laughs] Getting angry at that. But I, I'm with you. I called them bullies last year. That's what they were. Yep.
17:52
They were bullies, them and the Dolphins to some extent as well. Um, okay, that's interesting.
17:57
Let's get into now, you and I talked about this off air, I actually mentioned it earlier on the show, which is I do this NCAA championship formula. Uh, it's tried and true.
18:05
In the end, picking the winner isn't that hard at all if you just follow six parameters. You do this for NFL awards, which I think, TA, is so great because it gives us guardrails. And let me just raise my hand.
18:20
We w- Kelly and I w- I'll throw Kelly in 'cause we're, we're the ones talking, but, like, we'll prattle on about these awards for a long time, and these are great to keep in mind for us even. Give us...
18:29
Let's start with Coach of the Year. Give us what the, what the sort of parameters have been, and then who your pick is.
18:37
Yeah, this is a good one to start because I, we see this, especially in season all the time, where guys like Kyle Shanahan or, um, you know, uh, Harbaugh last year with the Ravens, they, they keep getting touted during the season and th- the- they're the favorite kind of midway, uh, to win Coach of the Year just because they have the best record, and it's like that's not the par- We know this is a human award.
18:57
It- that is not who wins this award. It's not the good teams. It's the teams, the middling to bad teams that exceed expectations the most. Like, that's...
19:06
You've gotta put that in your head first, uh, when you're kind of framing who, uh, is likeliest to win Coach of the Year. And so 15 straight winners have, have, you know, won at least nine games, so that's easy.
19:17
Uh, but the, the average preseason win total of the last 15 winners is only seven and a half, and no winner in the last 15 years, [laughs] um, uh, had a win total, uh, of higher than nine and a half.
19:29
So it's not the elite teams. It's not the teams that are expected to win double digits or make the playoffs or win the Super Bowl that you get the Coach of the Year.
19:36
It's the, like I said, the middling teams or the teams that are kind of, uh, uh, uh, not expected to do well.
19:41
Those are the ones that typically, you know, win this award and, you know, they, they typically, uh, increase their, their win total, uh, from prior year by at least five games.
19:50
So, uh, and a bunch of them are, you know, almost half of the last 15 are, are new coaches. You see that a lot.
19:55
Like, the no expectations, new coach comes in after a bad season, uh, they win their eight, nine, 10 games and, um, you know, 11 games and, and they win Coach of the Year. So that's typically what you see.
20:07
Um, and, you know, last year was a little bit of an anomaly with Kevin Stefanski. He beat DeMeco Ryans barely, um, who w- who would've fit that criteria perfectly. You know, the, the Browns had all those injuries.
20:18
I mean, four quarterbacks. You're setting a record for number of quarterbacks and then to make the playoffs. Like, you'll get an outlier like that.
20:25
But generally, it's the, the ones that exceed the expectations the most that, that win this award. And I think you hinted earlier as to who you landed on here.
20:33
Yeah, Kevin O'Connell, uh, yeah, I like Minnesota obviously to, [laughs] uh, to be my surprise team. So Kevin O'Connell sitting at 28 to one fits the bill.
20:41
Obviously Minnesota is a six and a half or seven, uh, you know, win total. I think if they get good quarter- or at least decent quarterback play, he's gonna get all the credit.
20:51
Uh, and we saw last year, like, he took guys like Nick Mullens and Joshua Dobbs, like they were... Those are not good quarterbacks, and, and he was winning games with them. He was very competitive.
21:00
Uh, you didn't have Justin Jefferson for a lot of those games.
21:02
So, uh, I think if he can kind of resurrect Sam Darnold a little bit, um, or get JJ McCarthy to be, you know, um, a good enough quarterback in his rookie year, he's gonna get a lot of that credit.
21:12
And if I think that Minnesota could win nine, 10 games, you know, he certainly fits the bill for me as, as, as a, uh, upside, uh, Coach of the Year, especially at, at those odds. Like, I don't...
21:22
I think it's way, way too high. He should be one of the three or four favorites in my opinion. So if I can get something about 20 to one, I think that's a fantastic, uh, price.
21:30
So, you know, I like Mc- Mike McDonald too, uh, with Seattle. He, he kind of fits all that criteria. He's a new coach. Uh, he's another guy I think that has a, has a good chance.
21:39
Uh, his odds are a lot, you know, a lot shorter, but, um, those are the two I think off the top that, that makes sense to me. Yeah.
21:45
We're gonna have t- we're gonna have fun with Mike McDonald versus Mike McDaniel this year. I can see that being an issue.
21:50
Um, but you do this, you do this for MVP in terms of giving the, uh, parameters that have been tried and true. Offensive Rookie of the Year, Defensive Rookie of the Year, it's all in Cleve TA's guide.
21:59
Just wanna point out this other one, 'cause you have all kinds of historical data points that could potentially apply to our, uh, season win totals bets.
22:05
And pardon me, I have to go to the phone 'cause we're not syncing here. But, uh, this one was interesting, real quick in our last 30 seconds.
22:10
There have been 10 teams with a new head coach and a top five drafted rookie quarterback starting at least half of their games. The win total is hit six times with three unders and a push.
22:21
So six, three, and one to the over. Four of the six that went over did so by at least two wins, and three by more than three wins. That applies to both Washington and New England. Ah, Washington. Interesting.
22:34
There's all kinds of little nuggets in there. Cleveanalytics.com, @clevta on Twitter. TA, thank you so much, man. I really appreciate it. Thanks. I appreciate it, guys.
22:46
Cleve TA, everybody, right here on The Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. Samich on the other side. He's got baseball plays and Olympics play. He did the NFC West. We'll talk about it all next.
22:57
A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game live from Bar Canada, The Barrage, here at the D. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin.
23:05
If you went to Wimbledon, would you have strawberries and cream, you think? You think you would partake? Wait, what? If you went there. Is that, like, a thing? Yeah. Strawberries and cream.
23:13
You never heard about that at Wimbledon? No, I didn't. I didn't know that was a thing. Oh, yeah, it's a thing. What's the booze situation like? That's what I'm more interested in. I don't know. We'll, we'll ask.
23:20
[laughs] Uh, we get tweets that beat in the book. A lot of s- a lot of response to the soccer slander.
23:25
Brian M., "Is slandering soccer at a l- uh, Gil and Kelly, slandering soccer at a level not seen on a Numbers Game since Ben Wilson's slander of Iga while you were on vacation."
23:35
[laughs] The second I turned my back, he was just killing her. That was my, that was my... I think that's been my favorite fill-in host bit of all time, 'cause he just, he, he dared, dared to- He dared...
23:46
bring up that he, he, that he so cautiously walked into, "Well, you know, Kelly, I, I think I kinda like Sabalenka-" Yeah... "uh, more than Iga," and I would just blew, I blew it way out of proportion.
23:56
I was like, "How dare you, sir?" And then Iga wins the tournament.
24:00
Uh, Trip Tepper, "Soccer guy gets big mad when you bring up the lack of scoring in soccer and how lopsided the penalty kick is relative to the defensive infraction.
24:09
Also, the constant flopping to draw fouls has gotten out of hand." Wait, so Trip, I don't know if you were agreeing... Wait, that went all kinds of directions.
24:16
Yeah, I don't- So is Trip- It sounds like he's agreeing with everything... is Trip on our side or is he against us? I'm not sure. Kevin Ryan, "Gil, soccer banter on the, on a numbers game." No.
24:25
[laughs] We did a solid five minutes, man. I thought it was solid. Mike Alvarez. Oh, this is so great. Mike Alvarez was saying, "Hey guys, has, uh, Dallas Keuchel reached ATM status this year?
24:38
I haven't been watching closely this year. I went ahead and put some pizza money on the Dodgers at minus 155 in a live bet." And then of course, I'm laughing at him because Dallas Keuchel was like 2006 Dallas Keuchel.
24:48
[laughs] And he lost. Um, yeah, no k- uh, his, his... But here's, here's his stat line though. You ready for this? No strikeouts, five bases on balls, no runs allowed. That's exciting. Dallas Keuchel, everybody.
25:02
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he is the co-host of The Handle here at the network. He does it with Matt Brown. It is noon Eastern, Saturdays and Sundays. He is also capable of a periodic Samobomb.
25:14
It's Mike Somich, everybody, @Samobomb18, courtesy of the Progressive guest line. How you doing, Mikey? I'm doing well. I got two questions off those tweets. First off- Yes...
25:22
when were there's n- when was there not flopping, like, in soccer? This, this isn't a new thing. This has been going on forever. And secondly, the advanced stats don't like Dallas Keuchel. Let me just say that- Yeah...
25:31
off that line. I have a feeling that they're going to say he's due for some regression. Well, I said that about Luis Hill. Everybody was all over Luis Hill. I was like, "Oh, this guy's about to..."
25:38
And, and then the regression came. The regression comes. It does, typically, unless you're Blake Snell and you can do it for an entire season. Yeah, you guys are wrong.
25:44
I put a Cy Young bet in this morning on Dallas Keuchel. [laughs] Did you? [laughs] I'm sure you got a great number. Yeah, I'm sure your, I'm sure your number was fantastic.
25:52
All right, Mike, you're all over the place, so we're gonna go all over the place with you. Let's, we, we, we're talking about NFL betting guides today. You covered the NFC West in the VSiN NFL Betting Guide.
26:02
What were your sort of more outlying conclusions? Uh, I think it's gonna be a really interesting division this year.
26:09
Um, the more I dove into San Francisco, the more I'm a little bit worried about this team, and they're sitting up there with 11 and a half win total right now.
26:16
There is no depth on the offensive line, and we saw last year when they did struggle, it was because they lost an offensive lineman. If they lose one or two offensive linemen, that offense could struggle mightily.
26:25
And you look at the defensive side, the D-line not nearly the same as it was. I, it feels like this could be a team that is going to regress a little bit, and I'm not saying they're gonna win, you know, six games here.
26:35
I, I think that they've got a good shot at winning double digit games. But it opens up the door for the rest of this division, which I think is, is awfully interesting.
26:42
I think the Rams and the Seahawks both have an opportunity to take a step forward. I thought the Rams defense was gonna be atrocious last year. By the end of the season, they kind of figured it out.
26:50
Now, losing Aaron Donald, obviously a huge loss for that Rams team, but we'll see what they're able to do to kind of rebound from it. I think Kyren Williams, very interesting.
26:58
Uh, he's sitting at 12 to 1 to lead the NFL in rushing yards. After he came in and became the bell cow back, he was averaging over 100 yards rushing. I think that's a, an interesting play inside this division.
27:08
And I, I kind of think the Cardinals are gonna be frisky. They've got a really tough early schedule, so I actually had two s- separate win total plays for them in the guide.
27:17
I took them under preseason, but then after week six, that schedule gets significantly easier. I, I'm planning on playing them over, uh, once we get to week six for the win total as well.
27:26
So one thing that I talked about in the guide and that I've talked about a couple segments here on VSiN, I love sending myself calendar invites for a lot of these teams and specifically say, "Hey, you know, the Monday after week six, go in and look at the Cardinals," right?
27:39
"Go in and see, what is the win total at? How much has, has it adjusted down after this really tough s- stretch of the schedule?"
27:44
And I'll do that for division winners, I'll do that for win totals, I'll do that for player awards like MVP, things like that, so that I have something to remind myself to, "Hey, go check this out," allows you to do a lot of that prep before the season starts, and then you get those little pop-ups during the season to go back, look at the odds, see if you find anything to bet.
28:01
Sometimes you do, sometimes you don't, but it's a great way to help s- yourself prep for an upcoming season. Couldn't agree more. And- That's a pro tip right there... that's a pro tip, calendar alerts.
28:09
Like, I have notes written down for each team like that- Yeah... Mike, but y- you're right, that's next level with the calendar reminder- Calendar reminder... 'cause then you can't miss it ever.
28:18
But generally speaking, we, we've talked about this on this show and on the podcast before this, which is, you know, I used to do that off the grid Lehman Brothers thing where we, there would be a buy and sell price on all these teams.
28:27
It was, like, super duper illegal, but then when, when, like, legalized sportsbooks, we were doing primetime action when it started. Mm-hmm. Legalized sportsbooks doing in-season season wins, adjusted season wins.
28:37
This is not something that has, has existed since the beginning of time. Literally in the last five years. Five years, seriously. Like- Wait, I, I love how excited Gil gets about this.
28:46
Like, like, Mike, the first couple years that these came out, like, Gil, Gil would sit, bring this up once a week. [laughs] Oh. It just w- what an advent. And but, but you, and, and so that's how you should bet them.
28:55
You should know when the schedule turns good and bad, but the calendar alert- It, it's-... next level. It, it is, it is a great, great market to be able to be betting into.
29:03
I, I have a, I have a spreadsheet which has each division broken out. I have the full schedules in each, and then I, I simply tag them each game red, yellow, or green, right? Yellow is basically a coin flip.
29:13
Green, I think they're gonna win. Red, I think they're gonna lose.
29:15
And it's a really easy way to look at the schedule inside the division, so just those four division teams, and be able to see when certain teams are going through a bad stretch, certain teams have a chance at winning multiple games in a row.
29:24
And that allows you to go in and play division win totals. You've got division exactas that are available throughout the season as well.
29:30
All of those different markets are, are very, very responsive from w- week-to-week basis.
29:35
You're gonna see major moves in them, even if the team loses a game they're supposed to lose, and that allows you as a gambler to go in and be able to get a better number than what you were able to get just one week prior.
29:44
Um, two follow-ups on the NFC West stuff. One, I, uh, Kelly, after the show Friday, you saw me go up here, I bet Puka Nacua Offensive Player of the Year at 32 to 1.
29:55
Um, doing so because last year I was just, like, killing Matt Stafford and, and, uh, you know, that coaching staff are just like, "I must feed Cooper Kupp the ball," and every time they fed it to Puka, great things happened.
30:06
So I th- I hope that that has gone away this coming year, and so I, I bet that.
30:11
I think the Seahawks, though, are the most fascinating one, Mike, which is to say That offensively, like if you look at the advanced metrics from last year, they did really well actually.
30:19
Defensively they stunk, and now they have their defensive-minded new head coach.
30:23
And I'm just wondering if we're going to realize, like how quickly it's going to occur to us, if things of course go well, how quickly it's going to occur to us that Pete Carroll was suboptimal every which way you looked.
30:39
Like, he was just absolutely just shooting him- shooting his own team in the foot over and over by some of the decisions made. I'm, I'm just curious if we discover that with this team. It's gonna be interesting.
30:55
I mean, this was a team where I was, I was all in on the Seahawks last year, right? They had two second year guards, both of which I thought were gonna take a step forward.
31:02
I love what they did from a cornerback perspective. They got, they got Tre'Quan, they've got Witherspoon, both of them younger cornerbacks that should improve. They couldn't stop the run a lick.
31:10
Two years ago they bring in Bobby Wagner. Last year they still couldn't stop the run. Now they've got Mike Mc- Mc- uh, Donald coming in at head coach. That should really help the defense out.
31:18
You've got all the weapons in the world on the offensive side. They should be able to figure out how to use Smith, uh, Jackson, and Jiggley.
31:24
But the, the thing that to me is, is the key is the switch from Pete Carroll, right? He's a rah-rah coach.
31:29
He was never really an X's and, X's and O's guy, and you could kind of tell that, that that locker room was getting a little stale. They weren't listening to him like they were when they were winning those Super Bowls.
31:38
And so I, I think you're going to see a big time jump forward here. It, the question is Geno Smith.
31:43
Do you get the Geno Smith from two years ago when metrically he was a top 12 quarterback, no matter how you sliced it in the NFL, or do you get the Geno Smith from last year, which was an absolute mess?
31:52
I kind of lean toward the two years ago Geno Smith, especially with the weapons that you have around him, and that's one of the nother reasons why, like I, I'm a little lower on San Francisco, because I think the Rams are going to be decent this year.
32:02
I think the Seattle Seahawks have a chance to take a big step forward. I think the Cardinals have a chance to win a couple games.
32:08
I think they're gonna be frisky, and that all makes it more difficult for the Niners here inside this division. Uh, minus 195 I thought was a crazy price on the Niners.
32:15
If I was gonna take a shot here, I would take the Seahawks plus 700, just because I do think you have the opportunity to see a big turnaround because of that coaching staff.
32:22
By the way, beyond the NFC West, and we'll save the Olympics and baseball for the other side here, but beyond the NFC West, what is your single most outlying NFL opinion? I think the Saints are gonna be bad.
32:34
Like bad, bad. I, I took all unders on the Saints here, and this is a team that, that, uh, is not very good offensively. They didn't make any moves in the off season. I am not a Dennis Allen guy at all.
32:43
I think he's probably the worst coach right now in the NFL that's tenured. And then you look at the schedule, they start out against the Panthers. Okay, great, right? Then it's Cowboys, Eagles, Falcons, Chiefs, Bucs.
32:53
Like, it, it's not an easy schedule for them right out of the gate after that first stretch. Derek Carr, I think he's completely washed. He's just a checkdown Charlie at this point.
33:02
You've got Kamara a year older, and the defense that they, they really hung their hat on for years was not good last year, and I don't see how they're going to suddenly be better again this year.
33:10
So to me, the New Orleans Saints alt unders is, uh, is kind of my, my big look here. Wow, okay. Yeah. Um- Plus, I've never loved Derek Carr. I've never been a Derek Carr fan. But, but yeah.
33:22
I, I mean, and that- I'm with Mike here. What'd you see on that team last year too- I know... to make you believe anything, you know, better is gonna happen this year?
33:28
I just always think, even in the best of years for Derek Carr when he was putting up numbers, when crunch time came and a decision needed to be made, it was always the wrong one.
33:35
Yeah, he left, the better quarterback was on the bench last year. Now he's in Cleveland. [laughs] Dame is time. [laughs] Dan loves his FSU players, that's for sure. Uh, more with Samobombing, Mike Somich next.
33:56
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game, Skill Alexander, Kelly Bidlin, Mike Somich, kind enough to hang with us for a second segment.
34:05
You can find him on The Handle, with Matt Brown weekends here at the network, and of course on Twitter at Samobomb18. Samobomb. There we go. There goes the screen. See what you did right there. Nice job, guys.
34:17
Mike, do you- Oklahoma in 2004. [laughs] That's who USC beat to win the title. Thank you. Oh, we, we're just talking off air about, like- [laughs]...
34:23
Pete, we're, we're talking about how Pete Carroll still has an office with the Seahawks, Nick Saban still has an office with Alabama, and Mike pointed out very clearly, he said, "Well, at least with Saban, there's a recruiting benefit to that."
34:34
You can't say the same with Carroll because you go back in time, these kids don't even know... Like, he won a, he won a title in, in the mid-aughts. Yeah. These kids don't know him. [laughs] You know?
34:44
So, uh, can we start the segment with your, your wonderful quiz that you like to give everybody? I think this was very- Oh, yeah, yeah. Well, this would, uh, uh, you might have to quiz me on it in about four months.
34:53
You could just do a match the f- match a face with a name- Yeah... for Mike McDonald, Mike McDaniel, Michael McDowell, and Michael McDonald. Okay. Mike McDaniel- For me at least... Mike McDaniel, Dolphins head coach.
35:07
Yes. Mike McDonald, Seahawks head coach. Yes. Uh, Michael McDonald. I keep forget- [laughs] Um, and then what's the, who was the fourth one? One of, one of, one of the most annoying or best singers of all time.
35:20
Oh, it's the greatest. Are you kidding me? [laughs] And then Michael McDowell, who I believe won a Daytona 500 like a year or two ago. Oh, you lost me. Okay. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
35:28
No, that's where I saw his name on a NASCAR betting odd- Yeah, no, that-... 12 months ago. Yeah... that's totally gonna be fun this year. Yeah, good times. Yeah. [laughs] Yeah. All right. Um, Olympics are upon us.
35:37
Well, at least they're getting closer anyway, and you have a basketball bet that you made. I do.
35:43
I wanted a little bit of a sweat here, uh, with Team USA, and I, I was interested to see that they put up a most points in the Olympics prop for the, uh, for Team USA specifically, and I was a little bit surprised.
35:54
I, I went into it without seeing the odds, and I figured that Anthony Edwards would either be the favorite or the co-favorite. He's actually sitting third choice right now at plus 550.
36:03
Uh, Joel Embiid the favorite at plus 350, Kevin Durant second choice at plus 450, and I, I kind of look at this, I just, I disagree, especially what we saw last summer when we saw in the Worlds where Anthony Edwards really was the face of this team.
36:15
And then you look at the age of this team as well. You look at guys like, like, uh, Embiid, who's coming off an injury, guys like Durant, who's a little bit older, Curry, LeBron James, older-
36:24
They're not gonna be playing if Team USA is up 20 points, 30 points in these games, specifically late. Anthony Edwards will. Mm.
36:30
And you know he's going to absolutely take the ball to the rack and be able to shoot the ball. So I'm surprised. I thought that Anthony Edwards should be the favorite or co-favorite.
36:38
He's sitting there at plus 550, the third choice. I, I thought there was some value in that, and it gives me a little Olympic basketball sweats. A little more interested in watching it.
36:44
So I played, uh, Anthony Edwards most t- points in the Olympics for Team USA plus 550. I like the thinking. Didn't Anthony Edwards just proclaim himself the number one option on that team?
36:53
Didn't he just say that out loud? He, he did. He did that yesterday. I kind of don't like that- Yeah... because you know that, like, LeBron is gonna take that personally a little bit.
37:01
Like, there's gonna be other guys who are like, "Whoa, whoa, whoa." [laughs] That's true. "Wait, wait, young, young buck. It's like, it's me still." Um, a- but again, the minutes to me is the big key here. Yeah.
37:09
In games where they are blowing but someone out, Anthony Edwards will stay on the floor. A lot of these older guys will not, because they don't want to risk injury. They don't want to put miles on them.
37:17
Anthony Edwards, happy to do that, happy to be the face. Uh, so I, I do think he's got a, a, uh, more upside than some of these other guys in blowouts as well. Yeah.
37:25
Mike, what were the odds on, uh, on Booker if you have him in front of you? I'm trying to find right now. I, I guess he would be the only one I'd consider.
37:30
I think your overall, your overall take, uh, you know, on Team USA is, is, is kind of, I, I share it and it's a little bit of a concern where just they, they are getting a little long in the tooth.
37:40
Like you, you don't think about that with a lot of these guys, but they are. Yep.
37:44
Uh, they, they, they, it's, it is an older team when you go through it, and you're kind of surprised some younger guys didn't end up on here. But it, I mean, it's absolutely stacked.
37:50
So Edwards is plus 550, Steph Curry plus 600, LeBron James plus 600, Jason Tatum plus 650, Devin Booker plus 700, everyone else 20 to one or longer. Yeah, Tatum and Booker wouldn't be bad too, but I'm, but I'm with you.
38:02
I, I, like, I think that's, uh, Anthony Edwards would be a good look there.
38:06
Um- If you're, if you're, if you're looking for that bet on DraftKings, you've gotta go to Basketball, and then View All, and then Olympic Basketball Men's, and then Scoring Leader under that. Thank you.
38:16
I was wondering why I couldn't find- Thank you so much... you're hunting. You're hunting, but it is there. What co- when, when does the View All show up in, then? What is it, second? When you click on Basketball- Yeah...
38:26
it will list out, um, it'll list out different options, and if you click View All- View All... right at the bottom. Yeah. That's how, um, when- That's where you can see all of the basketball options.
38:34
That's how up until Wimbledon started, you had to find Wimbledon futures. Yes. Or if you want to find future, you know, slams, you have to go into the View All of tennis as well. Right. Yeah. Yeah, so not exactly.
38:43
By the way, when most wins in monthly for Caesars William Hill also is, like, this weird thing where you have to go to a somewhat, it's completely counterintuitive as well.
38:52
Um, good, good call on that in terms of the, uh, the navigation. All right. How about baseball today?
38:59
I wanna give you credit for this, Mike, 'cause you have been the one that's been most vocal about this certain kind of ninth inning themed bet, if you will.
39:09
Yeah, it's, it's started to pick up some traction on the network. Been funny to watch other shows and all of a sudden people are talking about, uh, this specific bet. But DraftKings is the only book I've seen listed.
39:17
It's will a team bat in the bottom of the ninth inning.
39:19
Uh, it's a great way to be playing favorites that you like, but you don't wanna lay the run and a half to get a better number, but you're still able to get a significantly better number, uh, than what's listed for the specific money line of the game.
39:29
So it's almost like a, a middling money line in a way. Uh, I like one team today. Uh, specifically with this bet, we're gonna go to the Cincinnati Reds here.
39:37
Uh, they are currently minus 170, uh, with Andrew Abbott on the mound against a terrible Colorado Rockies team. They're at home, uh, facing Feltner, a pitcher I love fading.
39:47
He's sitting there with one and seven with a 5.60 ERA. If you play will the Reds bat in the bottom of the ninth, no, so essentially win the game in eight and a half innings, you get minus 120 right now.
39:57
So you save 50 cents off that minus 170 run li- or money line. So we're gonna go Reds. Will they bat in the bottom of the ninth? No, minus 120 in this spot. It's awesome. It's great thinking on that.
40:06
So it's, it's a creative way to, uh, bet something by proxy and bet something without, uh, having to lay the same amount of juice, even close to the same amount of juice. All right, you have another play as well today.
40:18
Yeah, we're gonna go, uh, to one of my favorite teams at this point. I love betting the Nationals, something I did not expect to say during this Major League Baseball season.
40:25
But they, they've been frisky with their bats, and they just called up, uh, their biggest prospect, James Wood, hitting.320 through seven games, so been able to hit the cover off the baseball.
40:34
Have a, a pitching advantage today. Uh, the Cardinals have, uh, Mikolas on the mound, and the, the, the Nationals have Parker on the mound. I'm a bigger Parker fan than Mikolas fan.
40:42
Mikolas' given up at least two earned in, uh, all but three of his starts so far this year. Uh, right now you can get Washington first half, so first five, minus 125. I wanna focus in on just the starting pitchers here.
40:54
You're giving up a little more juice, but that's because we've got an edge. From a starting pitching perspective, I like Washington's lineup more. They've been hitting the baseball well lately.
41:02
I don't think people realize they are just six games under.500 as well. This is a team playing above expectations, and I, I think it's legitimate.
41:08
Uh, they are, they have quickly become one of the, my favorite teams to bet this year because of, uh, how well they've been able to hit the ball and how, how mispriced they are still in the market from that perspective.
41:17
They're just not getting as much love as I think they deserve. Um, because of that, I've, I've gone back to them quite a bit, and it's, it's been pretty successful.
41:22
So we're gonna go back to the Washington Nationals again today. First five innings, minus 125. Yeah, they're 42 and 48. Based on run differential, they ought to be a little bit better than that, quite frankly, right?
41:32
They should probably be two games below 500, not four games below 500. Uh, so the Nats currently on the outside looking in on the, uh, in the NL playoff picture, but not that far out.
41:42
Five games out of the number three playoff position. What is more sustainable, the Nats sort of flirting with.500, the Guardians, uh, flirting with the best record in all of baseball, or, um,
41:58
I guess the Yankees and Braves still staying afloat in the playoff pictures respectively? Like, which of those do you think is the, is the most likely to crumble? Uh, most likely to crumble?
42:12
Man, I'm sorry, Gil, it's probably the Guardians. [laughs] For them to stay as the best record in baseball with that pitching staff, to me, is awfully tough.
42:19
They've hit the cover off the ball in a lot of different spots. I, I just, I don't think that they are one of the best teams in baseball. Now, the schedule plays out well for them.
42:26
H- playing in that central division, they get a lot of easier games, which allows them to keep that record afloat. But of, at some point I think you're gonna see some regression from this, this Guardian's offense.
42:35
Yeah, no need to apologize to me. I, I stole them in, uh, March, April, and May, and then I gave them back to Anberg. Um- You're off the bus. [laughs] Yeah, no, I'm off the bus.
42:42
Um, but no, they're an interesting team because, right, at some point it's like, you know, again, that's the beauty of...
42:48
I, it's the beauty of betting s- all sports, but particularly baseball where there's 162 data points of this.
42:55
If you're able to buck something that is so clearly ripe for regression for 162 games, it's kind of an amazing feat. Obviously, I, you know, I talk about Blake Snell last year with the Padres.
43:08
Like, you cannot possibly walk all of these players and then have this historic strand rate for an entire season, and yet he did, right? So with the Guardians, like,
43:19
their starting pitching is just so, and I'm being kind, mediocre, right? Mm-hmm, yep. But they've been able to hit the cover off the ball, and the pitching is, is, for the most part, been good for them.
43:31
A- at some point, though, I agree with you, Gil, you would expect the regression, but, uh, like you said with Snell last year, it never came with Snell.
43:36
Regression is expected, but you don't know when it's going to come either.
43:39
It's one of the toughest parts about betting the advanced stats is that you can make, tell me all the advanced stats in the world where someone's due to regress. It doesn't mean they're gonna regress today. That's right.
43:47
They're going to regress at some point, but it doesn't mean it's happening today, so you gotta be careful about when you pick your spots with that. Today or this year, in some cases.
43:54
Uh, the Guardians have just had unbelievably, you know, timely and good hitting, and then the bullpen has been lights out, except for, uh, April 30th. They had trouble that night. [laughs] And, uh, don't we know it.
44:05
Uh- Live in infamy. Yes. Mike, thank you so much. Always a pleasure, man. Appreciate you making the time. You got it, guys. Have a good one.
44:13
Mike Somich, everybody, @SomoBomb, that's S-O-M-O Bomb 18, the number 18, on Twitter, the handle.
44:21
Weekends, noon Eastern, Matt Brown and Mike Somich hanging out together, uh, talking sports betting, and do a great job with it. We've done all we can do. Gojo and Golik are next on the radio side.
44:30
Best Bets on the side of the pictures. Enjoy, from Visa, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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