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Jul 8, 2025
A Numbers Game | July 8, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | July 8, 2025 | Hour 2
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44:48
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Transcript
0:02
The numbers told the story. They always do. So, one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
0:13
VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin alongside everybody. Losing weight before our eyes. Man is disappearing.
0:27
I don't wanna say we need to talk more soccer on the show 'cause I think we do a pretty good job of it, but, uh, Fluminense really needs to play more. Fluminense. Yeah. That's a f- that's a fun name to say.
0:38
Uh, we get tweets at Beat of the Book. Stringfellow Hawk, "I'm sorry, but I didn't he- I'm sorry," he says, "but I didn't hear anything after Lays Alexander." No, no, no, Blaze Alexander. Blaze Alexander, yeah.
0:47
[laughs] Totally different. Again, he's a lot better on the grass. Uh, Martel, "After hearing all the Love Island talk, uh, apparently Da-" oh, what is this?
0:56
"Apparently Dallas has watch parties a- all over by Jerry world. Hopefully no one had Sierra futures." Yeah, Sierra Ortega, gone. Racist tweets. That'll get ya, like you said. From back in the day. Get you every time.
1:11
Yeah. By the way, I, I'm surprised it took so long for them to knock her off the show. But yeah, watch parties at Jerry, around Jerry's world, of, of course. It's, it's sweeping the nation.
1:20
And by the way, Abe Brown, uh, "Sports talk radio alert," he says. "Uh, nothing to do with formula, but the Phillies have three starting pitchers in the top six Cy Young odds.
1:30
How big a failure is this season if they don't make a, a deep post-season run to m- to a minimum National League championship series? Yes, I know the Dodgers still exist. Thanks. I'll hang up and listen."
1:40
Yeah, I mean, look, the Phillies have, uh, been here before with, uh, with great pitching staffs, uh, most notably a little over a decade ago when it was Oswalt and Hamels and Doc Halladay.
1:51
I mean, this, as great as this is, right, uh, doesn't even compare to that. Um, you know, obviously with Wheeler and Sanchez at the top of that list. Sanchez is gr- awesome, by the way.
2:02
Um, but this doesn't compare to that, but this wouldn't be the first time the, uh, Phillies' promise didn't materialize, let's put it that way, with great, with great pitching staffs.
2:13
But again, let me just say this last night, again, as a Giants fan, um, that was insane with the umpiring, just completely favoring the Giants in that ballgame. Uh, let's talk some tennis right now. Here is the update.
2:25
Uh, while Taylor Fritz has advanced, as we mentioned, to the, uh, semifinals on the men's side, Laura Siegemund up a break in set number three, uh, 3-2.
2:38
Uh, she has to, uh, win three more games, if not, uh, more if it, uh, if, uh, Sabalenka breaks back. So this is far from over, but right now, the world-- what is she, 104? What she, like, 100 going into this tournament?
2:51
I'm not sure what she is on the live rankings. But, uh, peaked at 27, peak, peaked at 27th in the world nine years ago. Uh, she's 37 years old. She's been on tour forever.
3:01
Uh, Drew Dinsick joins us now to talk tennis and more. He joins us courtesy of the r- Progressive Guest Line. Pardon me.
3:07
Uh, he is the host of not one but two podcasts, "The Deep Dive," which he does with Andy Molitor, which is always hilarious and insightful, and then of course, there's NBC Sports Bet the Edge, which he does with the Aussie-accented Jay Croucher.
3:20
Drew, as @whale_capper on Twitter, Drew, is Siegemund gonna pull this off? [sighs] I give her a 33% chance. [laughs] Did you just do a little, do a little math in the, in the old brain there, in the old dome? Yeah. 33%.
3:36
Yeah, that's roughly. Roughly 33% chance. Okay. Um, she's-- I mean, her game has looked good today. Um, sh- finally got a time violation.
3:46
Uh, for those who are unfamiliar with Siegemund's game, I kind of always joked that they imposed the clock because of her. Oh, wow.
3:54
Like, she is noto- she's a notorious, uh, pest when it comes to, um, really dragging out the, uh, serve, uh, in really, really high-leverage moments and bringing out, like, kind of, you know, e- really eliciting, you know, rage mistakes from her opponents.
4:11
Um, but, uh- [laughs] Rage mistakes... you know, this is, uh, this is a- Sounds like a savvy move to me. [laughs] It is.
4:18
It's a sav-- Especially when you're up against a Sabalenka who is, you know, is a little mercurial, you know, a little, uh, little, little hot under the hood. Um, but, uh, yeah, it's, it's, uh, uh, it's been a fun match.
4:30
I'm surprised the market gave, uh, Siegemund such little respect in this matchup because, you know, her, her weapon of choice this entire fortnight has been the drop shot.
4:39
She's been delivering it with absolute touch and majesty. That's how she got the better of Madison Keys.
4:46
Um, and, uh, you know, she has not even really deployed it very often in this match, but when she has, it's been very effective.
4:52
Um, Sabalenka, when she was at the French Open, she was stomping around like Frankenstein out there and moving really poorly laterally, I thought, uh, which is how Coco Gauff took advantage of her in that final.
5:02
Um, and she's moving a lot more fluidly, a lot more comfortably on grass side to side, but when you get her coming forward and backward, it, it does kind of look Frankenstein-ish again.
5:12
So, um, Siegemund is, is, um, kind of be-- She's been pretty effective there. Um, and, uh, but Sabalenka's keeping her cool. You know?
5:20
She's not, um, she's not going into full melt, mental meltdown mode, although she's had a couple temper, temper tantrums.
5:27
Uh, and then, uh, and I guess if, uh, if Siegemund can avoid, um, you know, double faulting her way out of, you know, this up a break situation she's in, um, she could, she could close the door here.
5:39
Uh, Sabalenka, if you weren't paying attention, was minus 142 to win this title offshore yesterday, and I was pulling my hair out. Like, I w- hey, in what world? Like, this is so far from over.
5:50
Like, she's, she could, she could lose tomorrow. She could lose next, you know, ne- next round. She could lose in the final.
5:54
Like, there are still, um, something like eight women who could win this title, and, uh, we won't know until s- till Saturday.
6:03
So, um, yeah, it, uh, it looks like, uh- Um, it looks like she's got a, a match on her hands here, and, and I would expect the same in the semis and expect the same in the finals.
6:14
So we're a long way from the finish line. Long way from the finish line. But if Sigemund does pull this off, right? So Iga becomes the short shot, Miran Dreva right behind her.
6:26
Then it's Anisimova, who again, if you listen to the, uh, Beating the Book pre-Wimbledon pod with, uh, Drew, Zach, and myself, uh, tipped her to win that quarter, Anisimova's quarter. Samsonova, who plays Iga next.
6:39
Bencic, who decided to show up for this tournament. And then Pavlyuchenkova and Sigemund. Like, how would you-- Obviously, we both have Iga futures here. Mm-hmm. Um, but if not Iga, then who would you say? Uh, I mean-
6:56
Anybody, right? The Iga-Andreeva match is gonna be tough. It's really gonna be tough. Um, I, again, like I'm against Sabalenka here because of price.
7:04
Like laying, laying the juice on Sabalenka at this stage in-- is, is absurd to me. Even if she comes through this match, which, you know, right now she broke them back. She broke back. Tied three-three.
7:15
Tied three-three in the third. Yep, yep. Like she, she very well could still win this match. Um, th- all that said, uh, the Iga-Sabalenka final, I would tip, tip I-Iga as your, your likely winner there.
7:26
An Andreeva-Sabalenka final is probably Sabalenka, your likely winner for me. Um, Iga-Andreeva is gonna be very, very close. Andreeva is certainly figuring out grass in the moment.
7:36
We talked about this in the Wimbledon preview as well.
7:38
Like when you have a player with the talent that she has and the skillset she has, the touch and the power that Andreeva has, but has never done it on grass before, like you can't assume she won't figure it out.
7:50
And she has figured it out from what I've seen.
7:52
Like she's using all of, um, all of her best parts of her game to, uh, to get to this point in the tournament, and I would think that she almost certainly beats Bencic tomorrow.
8:01
That one is, uh, uh, pretty heavily tilted in favor of, um, Mirra for me. Uh, Mirra-Iga is gonna be flat out awesome. That's gonna probably be the best women's match of this tournament, in my opinion.
8:14
Um, I think Iga comes through. Uh, Ludmilla Samsonova-- [clears throat] Or I, I guess I should say, if Samsonova takes Iga out, I'm gonna be pretty, pretty chappy. [laughs] Me too. It is going to be- Me too.
8:27
Uh, uh, thanks for nothing, Ludmilla. Um, but, uh, you know, I, I, I, I am surprised that the market has not shortened more aggressively on Iga, considering how well she's playing.
8:38
Uh, the day Rybakina went out, it was like, "Okay, bottom half is hers." Yep. Uh, Mirra, of course, has stepped into the, uh, the space a bit with her quality of performances.
8:47
But, um, I don't understand at all why the market refuses to give the Iga the respect she deserves in this tournament, and why it is so sure that Sabalenka will win.
8:56
Um, Sabalenka can win this tournament, don't get me wrong. She would be my s- my, uh, top choice. But at minus 150, it's insane. I love this 'cause I don't have to say any of it. Thank you. [laughs] Someone else said it.
9:08
There you go. Y'all think it's me. Y'all think it's me. Um, I'm just gonna say this. If Iga wins this and wins her sixth Slam, and she wins one on grass, everything I said is coming to fruition.
9:20
Um, let's go to the men's side. Yesterday, obviously the, uh... what, what q- what qualifies as a, in tennis, tragedy, obviously the word tragedy means far greater outside of a sport.
9:31
But as, as far as a sport is concerned, poor, poor Grigor Dimitrov, his- Mm. His tenth withdrawal from a Slam because of injury. This time up two sets to none on the world number one.
9:44
Uh, just brutal in a round of 16 against Jannik Sinner. And Sinner advances because of the, uh, the pec injury that Dimitrov sustained in the third set, could not continue. Um- Mm-hmm.
9:55
Are you worried about Sinner's elbow, though, from the first set, uh, where we saw him have to get tended to? Are you worried about that heading into a Shelton match? I have mixed feelings about it. Um,
10:10
I think you-- W- with-- We can talk about how to play the Shelton match in a second, but kind of going back a step, um, when he went down, it didn't seem that serious to me.
10:21
Um, his quality of play was poor enough that then you're like, "Well, maybe he is-- maybe something is wrong." But usually when Sinner is carrying something physical, you can tell.
10:31
Like he does not-- He's not capable of hiding it when he is struggling, and I wasn't really seeing that other than the c- the occasional like, uh, you know, motioning to his box.
10:40
And at one point his box [laughs] literally was like, "What, do you need an Advil? Like what, what's, what's wrong with you?" [laughs] And he's like, he's like, "Yes, exactly. Like, like shake it off, dude.
10:48
What the hell?" And then news comes out that he's gonna have an MRI today after it, and he's had the MRI supposedly. Ooh.
10:54
But then shortly after having the MRI, he booked a practice, uh, you know, practice slot for an hour, five o'clock local. So I, I think he's just fine. Um, and that said,
11:05
he's not playing well enough to beat Alcaraz still. Nothing has changed in my mind there. I agree. I agree. Um, he's pl- he's playing well enough to beat Djokovic.
11:12
Uh, but, uh, that's mostly 'cause Djokovic has a Sinner problem still. Um, I mean, ba- very, very little of how this ultimately plays out has changed in my head.
11:21
Shocking that, uh, we're gonna have a final four of Alcaraz, Sinner, Djokovic, Fritz.
11:25
Uh, shocking that Alcaraz is gonna take care of Fritz, Sinner's gonna take care of Djokovic, and then Alcaraz is gonna, uh, snuff Sinner in the final.
11:32
Um, but, uh, yeah, I have some thoughts on how to play some of the semifinals- Well-...
11:36
uh, particularly the top half and- All right, let's get to, let's get to that on the other side, and let, let's see if, uh, Drew can't rank his NBA Eastern Conference and Western Conference teams for us, since we did that yesterday on the show.
11:47
Get Drew's thoughts on that as well. Tennis and hoops next. Numbers Game Visa, the sports betting network.
12:06
Betting Network Back on the Numbers Game, don't forget to check out Sharp Plays.
12:11
Unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting information, alerts directly from the pros. We invite you to check out sharpplays.com.
12:21
I'm gonna Ron Burgundy through some tweets here, Kelly. I don't think there's anything too bad there. Go for it. Eh, we get tweets at Beating The Book. "Cancer free from stage four.
12:28
Uh, we've all had our fair share of jokes and laughs about driving out of the way to a concert to save money on gas, but we've never asked, 'What's the concert?'
12:35
If someone liked Creed, Nickelback, or Right Said Fred, they're better off missing the concert." [laughs] There you go. We've kinda brought this up before. Yeah.
12:42
It, it depends who you're going to see and, and where, when and where you're gonna stop, for sure.
12:47
Tom F, T for three, "Who gets yelled at more, side judge in the NFL or a high-level ladies tennis coach during a tense match? [laughs] Thankless jobs." Yeah, so what he's referring to... By the way, Sigmond breaks again.
12:59
Or these umpires. Well, no, but what he's referring to is if something goes wrong, particularly on the ladies' side, he is right about this, uh, certain players tend to berate their coaches- Yeah, that's fair...
13:12
as if their coach is just like, "Come up with something for me." It's so great. Uh, Johnny Vegas, "Did ANG get moved to a new time? Thought you came on at 10:00 AM Eastern." Yeah, we do. What happened?
13:23
What happened to Johnny Vegas? I don't know. I don't know. We on, Johnny. Um, Mike Zills, Duke 90, is- Pay your bills... is Sigmond at Wimbledon alone, or are the sea monsters in her box?
13:34
Uh, J- James Sod, "Holy cow, Sabalenka's on the ropes." Yes, on and on. You said you're getting a lot of parlay tweets? Uh, you know, I kind of, kind of, kind of- The-...
13:42
said what I said yesterday, and so I just keep getting a ton of winning parlay t- uh, tickets tweeted at me. [laughs] You know, everybody wins on parlays. Everybody. Everybody wins. No, no losers ever.
13:51
Uh- No, this one was a, uh, let's see, six-legger using a free bet. Yeah, hey, good on you, buddy. Good on you. Uh, Drew Dinsick joins us once again, @whale_capper, Deep Dive and Bet The Edge podcasts.
14:03
Uh, before we get to the NBA, real quick then, how do you approach these, uh, semis, Drew? Um, well, yeah. Uh, so yeah, Sigmond, uh, up 4-3.
14:12
She's just two breaks away and then a tie break win from, uh, from winning this match. [laughs] Uh, don't know that she's holding serve, uh, from here [laughs] into the close. That was a tennis joke- Um-...
14:22
in case you missed it there, people. Yeah. [laughs] Yeah. Um, the, uh, uh, the s- men's semifinals are, are chalk. Chalk, chalk, chalk, chalk. I think the, the way you play Sinner-Shelton, S- Sinner's come in.
14:35
People are speculating that the elbow may be a problem. Um, I don't think Shelton has anywhere close to the ceiling to his game to, um, to take it to Sinner the, the way we have seen Sinner tested at times.
14:48
Um, Shelton is kind of your perfect sort of barometer for good, not great.
14:52
Uh, he's going to, you know, keep, uh, keep a lid on everyone who can't produce the same level of power, uh, below him, uh, below the top 10, outside of the top... He's the gatekeeper.
15:01
He's the top 10 gatekeeper, you know? If you're not... You know, he's- you're not getting in if you're below him. Uh, and he is not beating anyone above him, in my opinion. And so- Agree with that...
15:11
I don't think Sinner realistically- Yeah... gets tested. Um, and so I laid the four and a half, maybe more. I can't remember the game numbers, but I laid the four and a half for Sinner.
15:21
Uh, and I, uh, I took the plus money 3-0, which was a little bit of a surprising price. I had that at minus one. At the... My fare was, like, in the minus 112 range for him to win straights.
15:31
Uh, so Sinner, riding with Sinner. And honestly, if you're gonna play it, play the upside of, like, him being totally fine and just dis- you know, just dispatching him.
15:39
Um, and then the Djokovic-Cabalí match is, uh, also relatively one-sided in my opinion. Um, if Cabalí wins more than three games in any set, I will be tipping my hat to him. This has 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 type of whiffs to me.
15:53
Uh, so I laid the, uh, I sold out to seven, and I laid seven with Djokovic. And, uh, I would consider minus 130 3-0 as a parlay piece for Kelly's, uh, mega parlay. [laughs] Thank you, Drew. Appreciate that.
16:06
By the way, it sh- and it should be noticed, like, Djokovic at this age, just y- again, if, if, if Sinner and Alcaraz didn't exist, he'd still be winning Slams. It's just amazing- Yeah... at his age.
16:16
The funny thing is people are like, "Oh, he should, he c- he can win number 25. He can d- he can pass Margaret Court or whatever," and it's like, he, he, he left a bunch on the table. Yeah.
16:26
[laughs] There was a, there was somewhere, uh, you know, the one n- the most notable, memorable, uh, two that he left on the table were where he got deported from Australia. That's correct. Yeah. Yes.
16:38
Um, he would, he w- he would have, he would have won that Australian Open without dropping a set, in my opinion.
16:43
Uh, and the one where he got defaulted at the US Open for hitting a ball, ball judge, uh, with a tennis ball. Yep. Um, and, uh- That was the, that was- Yeah... the Dominic Thiem Slam. Yeah. Yeah.
16:53
He was gonna win that US Open as well, so you know, you know, he's the, he's, he's still the, he's still got the, the biggest number up there despite, uh, despite leaving some on the cutting room floor. Okay.
17:03
To the National Basketball Association. Real quick before we get to your first reaction on season win totals, real quick, just rank, if you would for me, your top four Eastern Conference teams.
17:15
I'm curious at this moment. Do you... Okay, I gotta, I gotta get a little bit of a qualifier here. Okay. Do you want, uh, one of three, right? Um, so just, like, like, like, neutral power rating for a, a game handicap?
17:30
Uh, w- how I think they'll be stratified regular season win totals, or how I would put them in terms of championship equity? Because these are three different questions. Championship equity.
17:38
Like, I realistically think you have a couple, you have a couple of bullies.
17:42
You have a couple regular season bullies at the top here who I would not include as, like, anywhere close to fair price for odds to win the Eastern Conference, and that's your Cavs and your Knicks.
17:52
Um, both of these teams are gonna win into the high 50s.
17:55
So I, I would say, uh, with, with high confidence the fact that Donovan Mitchell is, is the best player in the Eastern Conference, uh, is gonna lead the Cavs to 58, 59 wins as, as sort of a median to low-end outcome for them.
18:09
The Knicks, I think, are similarly with Jalen Brunson going to be in the ballpark for 58 to 55 wins. That's probably your one and two. And then there is a big old step in terms of just expected regular season success.
18:23
Um, but, uh, but that next tranche of teams is really where you wanna be, uh, kinda shooting for, shooting for the moon, uh, in terms of Eastern C-... conference title, um, in my mind.
18:35
And I'm fine with the Magic and the Hawks both in that tier, but I think the Magic have been overbet. I think they've been overbet by a lot. Yeah.
18:44
Um, if you were gonna say who, you know, does the Southeast truly go through Orlando, I would say, uh, the Hawks are going to be right there. The Hawks, to me, look like a perfectly composed roster if they stay healthy.
18:56
Um, that if is obviously, uh, massively conditional with, you know, you're counting on Jalen Johnson coming off of injury and being as good as the arc he was on.
19:04
You're counting on Kristaps Porzingis not having some viral illness that keeps him out of 60 regular season games.
19:10
Um, but, uh, ultimately, the Hawks, to me, look like a very, very, very good, very balanced, and sort of playoff, kind of, kind of your ideal way you would put together a roster to make a playoff run.
19:22
Um, so that's where I'm shopping for Eastern Conference title winner. Okay. Makes sense. Uh, it's Atlanta. I agree with all that.
19:29
Would you agree with my comment yesterday, which is I think right now is the worst conference of an NBA s- heading into an NBA season of any conference I ever remember in recent modern history?
19:44
[sighs] I definitely remember betting the Cavs in a year where LeBron James was running around out there with four guys who probably didn't belong on a basketball court. Like, what was the year we won with, like, J.R.
19:55
Smith and- Right... and, uh- But still got, and yeah, that's true, but he, but it's still LeBron, right? So you still have that.
20:01
Yeah, it's, it's, it's still LeBron, but, uh, there were, there were s- uh, just as a, just as an overall team, like- Yeah...
20:08
um, like, if you put that LeBron Eastern Conference title team in the West this year, they're winning, like, 30 games. [laughs] Okay. Um, it's- Let, let, let me go to season win totals 'cause these are out.
20:18
I'm curious your reaction. So the Thunder's set at 62 and a half. It's the highest- Yeah...
20:23
season win total since the 2018-19 Warriors, who, by the way, um, with KD and Steph, was 67 and a half, good God, uh, in a year that they ended up winning 57 games.
20:35
If you go to all of the highest win totals since 1993, this is per our buddy Blake at Sports Odds History, since the, uh, '93-94 season, there have been 11 teams with win totals of at least 60.
20:49
Those teams have historically gone eight and three to the under. You have the Thunder at 62 and a half. Does that sound about right to you? Yeah. No, that's the right number.
20:59
Um, and I, but I would not take any s- I would, I would be willing to write overs right now if anyone wanted them. [laughs] Um, and that's not a call to action. [laughs] Wow.
21:12
A lot of times I come on your show and say stuff, and people immediately message me, like, "Yeah, I'll take some of that." [laughs] Um, this is not a call to action here. I'm not, not, not, not, not daring anyone here.
21:21
But, um, there's a qualitative whiff to the Thunder this upcoming season, where they will just win the title, but it's not going to start as smoothly as we have seen from them in past years, where they've been just this regular m- season m- machine.
21:37
I will point to a couple key points here.
21:41
The Thunder, I think, were the beneficiaries of a lot of the other teams, particularly in the West, and their star players participating in international basketball in the summer, and not really kind of coming into October with a sharpened spear.
21:53
Right. And not really kind of getting into form until, like, New Year's. Um, whereas the Thunder were young, hungry, and just polished out of the gate, and just punishing teams in October, November, December.
22:05
Um, this year the shoe is on the other foot. The Thunder played deep into June. Seven games, in fact, into June. And, um, you know, they expended a lot of energy in the playoffs that other teams did not.
22:18
And, uh, there's not a whiff of they didn't deserve it, like there was with, like, the Warriors back in the day. Like, everybody k- they were 10-point favorites in game seven, for crying out loud.
22:27
Like, ev- everybody knows that they were the best team, uh, and there's no real questions swirling. So I think the Thunder probably come out a little bit, um, lackadaisical.
22:36
Uh, and, uh, the time to bet on the Thunder is gonna be around January 1st. January 1st. Drew, appreciate it. Enjoy the rest of this match. Sabalenka breaks back. We're on serve again in the third and final.
22:51
Coming back, NFC West next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:05
Don't forget about our NFL betting guide pro edition. Our pro guide includes previews of all 32 teams, best bets from VSiN hosts, player props, and projections.
23:16
It's our football special, $175 VSiN Pro access through the Super Bowl. You can get that at vsin.com/subscribe. Uh, the guide is spectacular, and once again, I'll lean on Will Hill's, uh, words.
23:29
Anyone who gets this, no one will feel shortchanged. Nobody. It is spectacular.
23:34
All of us with, uh, our picks, uh, per division, per conference, Super Bowl, and our favorite prop bets of the year, multiple prop bets for all VSiN hosts.
23:44
Once again, the football special, $175 VSiN Pro access through the Super Bowl, including the betting guide. Sign up now, vsin.com/subscribe. We get tweets at Beating The Book, always appreciate the, uh, the feedback.
23:56
Best listeners in the game. Best listeners in the game. This is from, uh, from Mike Zhang. Oh, it's our buddy Mike Zhang. He says, "A great, great segment between Gill and, and Drew. Uh, so much, uh, tennis info.
24:09
Always a big fan of these two especially NFL mega pods." Well, thank you for that, Mike, and let me just say this 'cause Kelly mentioned this. Uh, Deep Dive is doing team-by-team NFL starting now.
24:19
Yep, Andy and Drew firing it up. Uh, I think they will be doing a team a day, mm, I don't wanna overpromise, Monday through Friday, I believe, though. [laughs] A team a day.
24:28
Uh, they said they're gonna ke- they're gonna cap it at an hour, and Drew, Drew is gonna cut off Andy no matter what. I was, I was cracking up when I- Drew's gonna cut off Andy?
24:36
Yeah, yeah, I was cracking up- Not the other way around?... I was cracking up when I heard this last week when they were s- Yeah...
24:40
they were laying everything out 'cause I was like, "I'll take the over, uh, on whatever it is, however many episodes go over, uh, an hour," and he told us off the air the first one did.
24:47
[laughs] First one already went over. He's got, I think there's the Cowboys today, I think you said Uh, Cowboys, yeah. They did Giants yesterday.
24:53
Have not listened to it yet, but those guys are great, great, great with that stuff. Uh, Touchdown Jesus J says, "Agree on, uh, Felika saying this is not being the old Yankees willing to spend at all cost.
25:04
Rumor is they're shopping two towns over just to save money on free agents at the deadline." Get it? 'Cause that's a gas thing. Get it?
25:11
Uh, Michael Salvino, "I ate at, I ate at Lucini last week at MGM Grand and enjoyed it. Where do you rank them as far as Italian cuisine?" I've never eaten there before. Have you? Um, I have, but man...
25:23
No, no, no, I don't think I ever have. I don't think I ever have. I have not. I think I ate at- I'm trying to even determine where is that at MGM Grand. Okay, so I was, I was randomly just in there a few weeks ago.
25:32
I, I, I know where it's at. Brian, it's next to Morimoto you said? Across from Morimoto. Oh, I've eaten at Morimoto many times. So it's, it's the one across from Morimoto. Never eaten there.
25:42
I was in there like a few- Yeah... weeks ago just to... I, I had to go to an MGM property, and I was like, "You know what? I'm gonna go to the MGM Grand. I haven't been there in forever."
25:48
I haven't been there in forever either. Forever. And it was just jam-packed. Yeah. But, like, man, e- everything just looks a little outdated and needs some- Af- af-... renovation there.
25:58
When Vsin first started, we stayed at the South Point for, like, three weeks. This is back in 2017.
26:03
And then the three months in between that and where I live today, and I have lived for eight years, I stayed at the MGM Signature for three months. Mm. Yeah, yeah.
26:12
Which are those three identical buildings that have a long hallway to, uh, to the MGM Grand. So I s- I overdosed on MGM Grand those three months. I don't know that I've been back more than five times since. Yeah.
26:24
Yeah, yeah. Yeah. [laughs] That was a little bit my experience too when I first- Yeah... moved down here. [laughs] I had a, a friend who worked at a, as a promoter over there, so we were over there all the time.
26:31
The Gauntlet, as I've referred to it in past episodes- Yeah... for those who know what I mean. Wet Willy Colon, uh, "Did I just hear Drew say Donovan Mitchell is the best player in the Eastern Conference?
26:40
I believe Giannis has something to say about that." Did Drew say that? Yeah, I'd agree. I'd agree. Yeah. And Trip Tepper, uh, he got an open, uh, four-leg parlay for you, Kelly, at, uh, what is this?
26:50
472/1 odds with two legs in the bank, just sending it to figuratively Tickle Kelly for fun. Uh, he says, "Tommy to win Open, Europe to win Ryder Cup, left to close it out." No, see, that's your problem right there.
27:02
You have Tommy Fleetwood winning a golf tournament. [laughs] That's why. Although it's not in the United States. That's right. It is not in the United States, so okay, maybe I should, maybe I should withdraw the total.
27:12
Es posible is what you're saying. It's possible, yep. Um, okay. NFC West, where the San Francisco 49ers have the, uh, the highest win total of the bunch. Niners, Rams, and then the Seahawks and Cardinals
27:27
the rear at eight-and-a-half wins. So all of these teams expected to be 500 or better in terms of the, uh, the season win totals market, if you will, using that as a guide. I mentioned this about the Niners.
27:39
Um, your question in Are We Sure the other day was, should the Niners be, besides the Eagles, the shortest shot to win the NFC?
27:47
And I said yes, because the NFC South is the NFC South, and the NFC North is so competitive with the Lions and Packers, and some people say the Vikings as well.
27:56
And I th- and what I said about the Niners was last year, eighth in yards allowed, 29th in points allowed. Um, they also, between weeks nine and 18, only forced two turnovers.
28:10
So both of those things are sort of the hidden thing that our brains don't necessarily process. Mm-hmm. We're like, "Oh, they should be better," right?
28:17
In both of those in terms of points allowed and in terms of forcing turnovers. Now, of course, they had tons of injuries as well. Their defense was all out of whack. Saleh is back as their defensive coordinator.
28:27
They sh- you know, are, are injuries something you can expect to have year after year after year? They, of course, hope not. Um, Deebo's gone.
28:35
Aiyuk won't be ready for training camp, so there's that in terms of wide receivers. But the big bugaboo is Trent Williams is 37 and Christian McCaffrey is 29.
28:43
Those are the re- those are the two injury concerns that they've really gotta be the most worried about.
28:48
But it, but there is, if things break their way, I guess is what I'm saying with all of that, there is a big upside to this football team that all got muted last year for various reasons.
29:00
So that's why they're an interesting team to me. Well, and then, and then did you mention, did you even mention the schedule? And the schedule is the easiest in all of football. Yeah. Duh.
29:08
[laughs] I, I kind of- Probably should, probably should have started with that... I was pulling up something. I figured you probably mentioned it, but no, yeah. No, no. So there's that, too.
29:16
I, I, I think if you're looking for long-term success on the Niners, it's the, I guess it probably just comes down to more of the... 'Cause everything you just said I agree with.
29:24
It probably just comes down to more of you, more of, uh, are you a Brock Purdy believer or not? And, and I am. I am. Yeah. So, uh, look, this division is, this division's tough. I'll keep letting you roll.
29:35
We can go through each one of these teams, but, but, uh, I've got a couple bets in this division, actually. Okay. Um, I won't say much about the Seahawks and the Rams just because for, for time's sake.
29:44
Rams, I just wanna say this about them, which is they finished 28th in yards allowed per rush last year, and they signed Poona Ford, which is supposed to curtail that.
29:54
The other thing about the Rams, obviously Devante, uh, Adams in the fold as well. They started three and six two years ago. They started one and four last season. That's the biggest thing with the Rams.
30:03
They gotta avoid that. The slow starts have killed them the last two years. Uh, Seahawks, their biggest thing is with Sam Darnold now as their starting quarterback.
30:13
He had, what, 11 sacks and a completion percentage of 58% across his final two games last year.
30:19
That's obviously what, uh, soured folks' opinion of Darnold, because they're, they're like, "Oh, finally, there's, there's Sam Darnold."
30:26
So they gotta really protect him, and I'm not sure if what they've done on the offensive line has been that sufficiently addressed this off-season. Yeah, agreed. Uh, their defense is still great, obviously.
30:40
Uh, the Cardinals is who I wanna focus on at eight-and-a-half wins, 'cause again, we talk about the Niners and some of the things last year that didn't go their way that ought to regress, or at least they have the, the, the hope of it regressing, both injury-wise and then statistically.
30:54
The Cardinals are a fascinating team. And just anecdotally, listening to folks this off-season, we've heard a lot of love for the Broncos, we've heard a lot of love for the Patriots.
31:03
A lot of love for the Cardinals, too, at eight-and-a-half wins, the over. They Last year, led the division in scoring. They finished second in points allowed. Mm-hmm.
31:14
Um, league-wide, they finished 12th in both points scored and total yards, but their defense was average, and they really addressed it. Their first five picks this year in the draft were on defense.
31:25
Uh, Walter Nolen, Will Johnson, the cornerback. Uh, Walter Nolen, defensive tackle. Will Johnson, cornerback. Uh, also free agency, Calais Campbell, Josh Sweat, Dalvin Tomlinson.
31:37
And then you look at Kyler Murray, and everybody has their opinion of Kyler Murray. Um, I can hear Lombardi even at North Carolina talking bad about Kyler Murray right now, if you, if you listen closely.
31:48
Listen closely, Kelly. You hear it? I hear it. Okay. Uh, Kyler Murray last year, he said his knee injury really bothered him. He averaged a career high in total QBR, by the way, despite that, but,
32:00
but he ran for nearly half as many yards as he did, say, in the 2020 season. So he says this year he is going to run more, and remember, he had his best QBR last year.
32:13
And then Marvin Harrison Jr., with all the fanfare, he only topped 100-plus receiving yards two times. He was held to fewer than 50 yards in 10 games. So the chemistry, remember, K- Murray didn't go to him.
32:25
Remember that controversy? He's like, "I don't feel that comfortable with him." Or he didn't say that, but he said, "I'll go to who's ever o- whoever's open." Mm-hmm.
32:32
So you gotta figure that's gonna be more ironed out, the connection between Murray and Harrison. Anyway, for all of those reasons, people think this is the best Cardinals team since,
32:43
I don't know, a Carson Palmer team maybe, years and years ago, almost a decade ago, more than a decade ago, when they went 13 and three. I think they're good. I, I think this is...
32:52
I think you and I were a little ahead on this team though, honestly. I, I was higher, high on them last off-season when the numbers were much lower. To me, the market has correctly caught up to where they're at.
33:03
I, I think they are probably a, they're probably an eight, nine win team. Yeah. I, I think that's probably right where they are. I think that's probably true. I think that's right where they are.
33:10
All that to say, the number's [laughs] where it ought to be. Yeah. No, yeah, right, right where it's ought to be. Yeah.
33:13
It, it ought to, it ought to be, but they, like you're saying, I think there's more people, though I've heard a lot of Cardinals love this, uh, this off-season as well. Yeah.
33:21
Um, that I think it's almost getting to a point where maybe it's too much, but nah, I like this team. Um. We'll finish up this chat. I think, I think I got a couple bets.
33:31
I think that Kyler Murray thing is interesting though.
33:34
I didn't know offhand that was his best QBR last year, and him saying, "Oh, I'm running more this year 'cause I was hurt last year," maybe, that might have more fantasy implications than anything. I don't know. Yeah.
33:43
So like I, I'm a Kyler believer, but like there's always the question of can he stay healthy? Uh, we'll get Kelly's bets in the division, and I wanna throw these, uh, NBA season win totals at him and get his reactions.
33:53
That's next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:09
Let's recap all our bets from the, uh, show today. I don't think we have that many, uh, on the show. Um, once again, Iga to win Wimbledon nine to one pre-flop, let's go.
34:20
It's courtesy of G Bank, by the way, the official bank of VSiN. Mariners 21, uh, 20 to one to w- most wins in July. By the way, the Blue Jays won again yesterday. Blue Jays seven- Yeah, I know...
34:30
seven and O out of the chute. Mariners four and two in eighth place currently. Can't slow 'em down. Play the Yankees tonight, a three-game set against the Yankees.
34:40
By the way, the way I had it projected, I wa- I, I had the Mariners five and one after the first six games.
34:46
They're four and two, but these next six, three against the Yankees, three against the Tigers, I had 'em three and three. So let's go, Mariners. Time to make up ground here.
34:56
Uh, you, sir, you got a couple, uh, open bets, the Open Championship. Oh, I got, yeah, I got a few things for you today. Okay.
35:02
Uh, we got, uh, review the open bets, 'cause I will remove these, uh, tomorrow when we actually talk about the Scottish Open. This would be for the British Open next week. Early bets on Xander and Collin Morikawa.
35:14
Timberwolves to win the Summer League. That is my only outright bet there. I haven't really found any others that I'm in love with, so that might be my only one as we roll into Summer League.
35:23
And then there it is, Gil, the CFL bet. Hamilton Ti-Cats, Saturday night. [laughs] Laid the four and a half on the opener. CFL Kelly's back. Let's go. Alexander Hamilton.
35:33
Uh, and for anybody at home- Oh, not the same thing... please, please be cautious with these. These are, uh, the...
35:37
I am getting back into the CFL after about a five-year break, and this is week three of the experimentation, so. Bet accordingly. Yes, bet accordingly, exactly. 'Cause I am.
35:45
I'm betting them about the same amount as a golf outright, so yeah, that should tell you something. Um, NBA win totals, you said you wanted to talk about. I did make- Yes... two, I made three bets yesterday.
35:55
I actually only listed two here. I bet the Hawks over 46 and a half, love it. Raptors over 34 and a half, love it. Uh, I took a small bit of the Lakers under. I didn't wanna put that one up there.
36:08
I only bet it small, and I might be adding on.
36:10
I think there's a team, and maybe we'll transition into this conversation with win totals, Gil, but the, that chunk of Western Conference teams in the middle, there's a couple things.
36:20
I, I think that there is a lot of, a, a couple of these teams that could go way o- way over or way below. So the Lakers, I'm waiting to see what else they might do this off-season. Right.
36:29
And then I might add alt under positions instead of just the under.
36:33
But the main thing I didn't really wanna, I didn't really wanna talk about it too much today, 'cause the Bradley Beal situation has, is upon us, and it, it, it is sounding like the Lakers, Clippers, Bucs are very much in play for Bradley Beal's services.
36:47
So I'm not gonna be adding onto that position, uh, if the Lakers do end up getting him, which I think would be awesome. By the way, nice of you to show up on the show today.
36:53
I felt like we didn't, uh, have you, we didn't hear you the first hour and a half. I apologize. A little, a little quiet happened. I apologize. It's whatever. We're talking to great people.
36:58
Uh, Paul Carr, Fluminense at Chelsea, under two and a half goals. That is today, not tomorrow, correct? Yes. We decided it's today. [laughs] Flumin- Fluminense and Chelsea, under two and a half goals. That is today.
37:09
They fucking copy and paste everything. [laughs] Oh, well. 3:00 PM Eastern, 12 noon Pacific. And then tomorrow, uh, PSG, not SG, PSG win versus Real Madrid plus 135. Shop around. There we go. There we go.
37:21
We corrected that. And then Mark Borchardt, he's got a parlay. It's not a Borchardt segment, it's not a base winner segment without a parlay. Rangers, Giants Plus 202.
37:30
I don't, I don't, $2 dog, uh, price on the parlay- Yeah... for, uh, Borchardt. That's what I said. It was a ra- it w- I told you that- Yeah... right after the segment. It was a rare, uh, two to one, uh, parlay on him.
37:40
Yeah. All right. And then, uh, Drew, uh, he already called the shot tomorrow in the men's semis. Excuse me, the men's, uh, quarters, pardon me.
37:47
Jannik Sinner minus four and a half games against Ben Shelton, and he is also saying, "Listen, I don't care about this elbow injury. I'm gonna act like it's not there."
37:56
Jannik Sinner, three sets to none against Ben Shelton, plus 155. He liked that price. Uh, he said he had it in minus money, the three to nothing outcome. And then he's on Novak.
38:06
Novak laying the games tomorrow, minus seven and a half games for Novak Djokovic, uh, for him to advance to the semis as well. By the way, Aryna Sabalenka does beat Laura Siegemund in the end 6-4 in the third set.
38:20
Important note on Drew's there, I wrote down seven and a half 'cause that's all I could find out there. He said he had laid seven, so just pricing might be a little bit different on that one. It...
38:29
Real quick on the Sinner stuff, 'cause I, I thought he made good points in the ma- in the match bets, thinking that there's, okay, a little bit of overreaction. You think there's some value on Sinner.
38:37
Wouldn't that apply to the, to the outright market as well? No, because he, like myself, thinks Alcaraz is winning it. Okay. D- d- n- that n- has not changed anything about Alcaraz being the best.
38:48
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39:25
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39:33
Real quick before we get, uh, to NBA season win totals 'cause I wanna do rapid fire with you. Your NFC West bets are? Oh, NFC West bets are, I made...
39:42
Okay, so agreeing with you, Niners, I think that the Rams are gonna win this division. Ooh. That is my hot take. I didn't bet that, though. What I did bet is Matthew Stafford long shot MVP.
39:55
I th- I think so much of the MVP equity is tied up still with Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson at the top. I think Davante Adams going to the Rams is huge.
40:03
I think at 40, you can get this 40, 40, 40, 40 to one, 45 to one out there. I bet a 45 to one here. You know what that sounds like? That sounds like Gil's on vacation, Matt Brown and Kelly- Oh, yeah...
40:13
are together and both of them decide to bet Matt Stafford. Ding, ding, ding. You're absolutely right. [laughs] You know, you are 100% right. Um, I think it's those two teams at the top.
40:21
I, like we were kinda just discussing, I'm still... I think the Cardinals are right there, eight or nine wins.
40:26
So the other bet that I made, and I think, I think you could ask this question about every quarterback in the division, right? Do you really trust him? Do you not trust him?
40:34
I, the other bet I made was Seahawks to finish last in the NFC West at plus 120. They're the, they are the team that I have by far the least conviction in, and I, I think there are major questions.
40:45
I don't trust Sam Darnold all that much. Um- What was your number on that? Plus 120. Yeah. So it's not like it's super, you know, uh, not like it's super long or anything like that.
40:52
Uh, but I have a fair amount of confidence i- in, in the Niners, the Rams, and the Cardinals, and you just end up, kinda like you were talking about with betting some of these exactas.
41:02
One team's left out, then there's a little bit of value on that to me. Okay. Um, let's do rapid fire NBA season win totals again.
41:08
These are just c- coming out now, and I just wanna get your quick over, under, no play reactions to these. Okay. All right. Let's start with, again, OKC. Historical number here.
41:19
Only 11 times has the team been lined at over 60 wins or 60 plus since the, uh, mid-'90s. Eight and three to the under have been the results of the previous 11. OKC, 62 and a half. Under or nothing, but no bet for me.
41:33
Cavaliers, 55 and a half. Drew said he was going over, I think, based on his projection. Over or nothing, but no bet for me. Rockets, 54 and a half. Under or nothing, no bet for me. Nuggets, 53 and a half.
41:49
Over or nothing, no bet. I agree with that. Knicks, 52 and a half. It is the highest, excuse me, the second highest over, under for the Knicks since the '97, '98 season per Sports Odds history.
42:03
I'm a little surprised this actually got bet down. It's 51 and a half, I think. Are, you have DraftKings up right now? Nope. Okay, it was 51. It was 52 and a half yesterday, DraftKings, down to 51 and a half.
42:12
Zach Cohen wrote this up at vsin.com. Completely agree with him. Haven't gotten there yet, Gil, but heavy lean to the over, probably a bet on the over to me. All right. I like, I like the moves they made this off season.
42:23
Let me just do, uh, four- A- and Drew is absolutely right. Like, the, the Cavs and Knicks should steamroll through the regular season. And it will mean nothing, really, once the playoffs start.
42:31
It could mean nothing 'cause both of those teams have kinda proven that. Magic with Desmond Bane, 51 and a half, their highest since the 2010, 2011 season. I think we're a l- I think we're getting a little high on them.
42:42
Under, under or nothing will be no bet for me. T-Wolves, 50. Opened at 50 and a half down a tick to 50. Man, that one's, like, spot on. It w- will be no bet for me. I'm gonna say that one's spot on. Okay, last two.
42:57
Lakers, 47 and a half. This gets back to what you were, uh, alluding to earlier. Yeah. If LeBr- if we find out LeBron is not playing for them, let's just say, how far does that drop? I don't even... It's, well...
43:09
Gosh, how far does it drop? It's gotta be at least a handful of games. That gets probably more, it's like 10 probably. Even more, yeah. And it's a good question. I don't really know. I'm not a, I'm not a bookmaker here.
43:20
I don't know. Yeah. It's probably that. Um- 47 and a half... under on the Lakers.
43:24
I will go, I think if you're, if you're high on the Lakers or low on the Lakers, though, bet it accordingly where I think it is extremely... Look, either Ayton works and this all works with Luka.
43:36
I don't believe in the roster construction a- at present, okay? I think lim- losing Dorian Finney-Smith was terrible. They gambled on h- him, and they called, he, he called their bluff. He's gone.
43:45
I think he was a big part of building that team around Luka.
43:49
Um, I think the roster construction could be a absolute disaster, so I bet the under and probably will bet a little bit of alt under on this and whatever's going on with LeBron.
43:59
I also think there's a chance this completely works with Ayton, though, and they are one of the top four teams in the Western Conference. And finally, let's go to the bottom. Utah Jazz, 18 and a half.
44:10
Like, under, but, like, I'm not living through this again. What did I... I did that with the N- Nets las- last year. Yeah. Like, it's just- [laughs]... it's no fun. Like, it's- We do- we don't often talk about that.
44:19
I do in baseball sometimes. I'm like, keep in mind, with some of these bets, you have to actually live through them.
44:23
I mean, that, and, like, it's, it's, with a number that low, like we always like to say win totals are fun because you got skin in the game every single night.
44:30
Like, you gotta sweat out every night them not getting to 19 wins. Yeah. We used to say that in baseball. Jason used to say that with his model. "Well, my model shows value on this plus 350 dog.
44:40
Do I really wanna spend four hours sweating this out?" [laughs] No, no. No. Talking about a season. Money moves with Stormy and JBT next. Enjoy. From Visa, the sports betting network.
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