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Jul 9, 2025
A Numbers Game | July 9, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | July 9, 2025 | Hour 1
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44:47
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:12
It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. That right there is Kelly Bidlin, everybody.
0:23
Heyo, how we doing? You may sense a pep in my voice. Is that possible, a pep in your voice? Uh, is it Iga Świątek related?
0:29
I just, I, I placed a call on, like, Iga, I gotta go on air here at, uh, 7, uh, 7:00 AM Pacific, if you could wrap this up, and she did. Hurry up and get that W. She did. And she did.
0:38
And then, and we hit the under as well, so, um, only bo- only tennis play left today, by the way. Let me just start there.
0:45
The over in the Sinner-Shelton match, which, uh, now as the, uh, as the ladies start to clear their courts. By the way, Belinda Bencic up a set on Mirra Andreeva in the other women's quarter right now.
0:58
Iga through to play the winner of that one. Iga two matches away from her sixth major and her first Wimbledon. Anyway, the over in the Shelton-Sinner match still to come, over 39.5.
1:11
So essentially what I need there is for Ben Shelton, your guy, to figure out a way to win a set. Well, maybe he can, uh, have a couple big serves, and then dad will calm him down once he gets too excited. Yeah.
1:23
And, uh, yeah, get you, get you there. Get you that over. Yeah. So men's si- men's quarters, pardon me, the last half of the men's quarters coming up here later today, obviously. Uh, Djokovic in action as well.
1:33
What was Drew on yesterday? W- was it Drew is, is laying the wood with both of the favorites, correct? He's laying the w- laying the games with Sinner and laying the games with Djokovic.
1:41
Yeah, he w- he was looking at it as a buy low on Sinner, uh, spot. Man, it is, those odds do keep moving on him. I, I, he is re- Upwards, you mean? Yeah, w- well mine was 275.
1:51
Um, and then in the futures market, he's tied with Djokovic right now. They're both pl- they're both plus 330.
1:59
Um, well, something, some of that has to do with the fact that Djokovic is a, is a bigger favorite over Cobolli today, but also the elbow, right? We just- Yeah... we just don't know about Sinner's elbow.
2:08
That's, that's the sort of wild card here. But, you know, until further notice. He did, he did injure that elbow in the first set against Dimitrov.
2:15
Obviously the Dimitrov injury took the headlines 'cause he was up two-nothing on Sinner, but we'll see here momentarily. Yeah, it totally took the headlines.
2:22
I mean, I, I saw him grabbing that, like, early in the match or whatever. Yeah. But then, I mean, I d- I didn't realize till Drew said yesterday that it was MRI serious. Oh, yeah.
2:30
I mean, gosh, you hear that and it's, okay, yeah, there's a level of concern there. They appear concerned. Uh, we will get Ben Wilson's thoughts on Wimbledon a little later on in the show.
2:38
Kelly with a country club and Scottish Open preview. Yeah. Was Dave Ross just asking you if you were gonna stay up and watch this in the dead of the night, and your answer was? Yeah, no.
2:45
[laughs] May- may- maybe next week. Brady Cannon and I used to talk about this during the British Open, 'cause he would, like, text at 3:00 in the morning. I was like, "I can't do it anymore."
2:53
[laughs] But he would, he would, for the British, he would do it. Uh, you might do it for the British too, for the Open Championship. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. Uh, Greg Peterson will join us.
3:00
Full day, full slate Major League Baseball. Greg "Oops" Peterson will give us all of his plays today, or as many as we can fit into one segment. Will Hill with all of his baseball plays and beyond here coming up as well.
3:12
And then, uh, we'll take a look at this market. Just a nice job here by Kelly finding markets that are available, different sports books. There is an MVP plus Super Bowl winner market. So season-long MVP.
3:26
This is not Super Bowl MVP, right? Correct. This is regular season MVP plus your team wins the Super Bowl. A built-in parlay market, if you will. And, uh, what we'll do is we'll review it mathematically first.
3:40
[laughs] And then, so we'll, we'll throw cold water on the whole thing probably, I'm guessing, with that. I'll do the math here between now and then.
3:47
And then, uh, we'll actually do it from just a handicapping standpoint, see if there is any reason to override poor mathematics.
3:54
I guess it was the one, the one part of it, and before, uh, just, and we're gonna get to it in a bit.
3:59
But I, I guess I was a little intrigued that most of the big books don't actually let you parlay that, like on its own. On its own, yeah. You know? Yeah, 'cause they let you parlay, like, everything.
4:10
Well- I was kind of a little surprised... 'cause, 'cause if they let you parlay 'em normally, they'll have to give you real odds, right? Right, right.
4:15
[laughs] So why do that when you can shove 'em into one market and cut 'em in half? Yeah. Or worse. Or more. [laughs] I like when we preview segments coming up, we're like, "Wait till you hear this."
4:27
Um, so we'll do that coming up, uh, a little later on, uh, as well on the show.
4:31
So, uh, trying to, uh, after a miserable Wimbledon, I think this happened last year too, where I had, like, a miserable grass court season, and then the last week of Wimbledon went well.
4:39
So trying to, trying to- Yeah, let's go. Finish it out right... salvage something here at Wimbledon here with a flourish at the end. So the over in the Sinner-Shelton match. Uh, baseball yesterday, I don't...
4:50
How can I put this, Kelly? I don't wanna sound like I'm Bob Costas waxing about the sport of baseball. Um, or pick your baseball waxer, right? Um, George Will or, uh, Ken Burns or whomever.
5:06
But there is something about baseball that, uh, for, for those of us of a certain age, I don't know how the kids take in baseball.
5:12
But I was talking about the, the three great pitching performances the other day from Skubal, from Wheeler, and of course, uh, from Skeens. That was amazing. Um, yesterday something happened in the Giants game.
5:24
Did you see the way the Giants game ended yesterday? Yeah. 3-1 Phillies- Saw it... in the ninth. Uh, two men on, and Patrick Bailey of the, uh, Giants steps to the plate.
5:33
And Patrick Bailey, who's a, who's a great ballplayer, great catcher first of all, great framer, uh, great caught stealing guy, uh, having struggles at the plate this year. Sub- sub Mendoza Line hitter this year.
5:45
But, uh, Romano, uh, I used to pronounce it Romano, but, uh, when he played for the Blue Jays they made it clear that his, uh, last name was pronounced Romano, on the, on the bump for the Phillies.
5:54
And Bailey goes to triples, to triples alley at Oracle.
5:59
Now triples alley at Oracle is, like, 460 deep So you hit it there, you hit it far enough, it's a home run in every other ballpark in America, the standard over the fence variety of home run.
6:12
But in Triple's Alley, unless your last name was Bonds, or in some cases, uh, I remember Pablo Sandoval would, uh, would get it over there, um, it's usually gonna be you running frantically around the bases.
6:24
And so yesterday, uh, Patrick Bailey went Triple's Alley, and it bounces off the top of the wall and caroms, and it is a walk-off inside the park home run for Patrick Bailey and the, and the San Francisco Giants.
6:39
Uh, a day after the Phil Kuzny experience basically handed the Giants a game, this time they win it.
6:45
Um, first of all, by the way, the, the Athletics, Lawrence Butler had a lead-off inside the park home run for the Athletics yesterday in a 10 to one route of the Braves.
6:54
Then Patrick Bailey with the walk-off inside the park home run a little further south in the Bay.
6:59
And for the first time in MLB history, both of those things have occurred on the same day, a lead-off inside the park and a walk-off inside the park.
7:07
As for Bailey, uh, Jeff Passan tweeting this out, um, it was the first inside the park walk-off homer hit in Major League Baseball.
7:15
First of all, and before we get to the Passan one, f- uh, it was the first inside the park walk-off home run period in a Major League Baseball game since Cleveland's Tyler Naquin did it on August 19th, 2016 against the Blue Jays.
7:29
And then as Jeff Passan tweeted, this ac- from, uh, Baseball-Reference, Bailey just hit the f- uh, that, that home run yesterday was the first inside park, inside the park walk-off home run from a catcher, and you remember this game, Kelly, since Benny Tate did it on August 11th, 1926.
7:44
Well, I just had to double-check my, my, my dates because you know my rule. Stats before prohibition don't count, but- Yes... this is, no, no, it's right during prohibition. During prohibition.
7:53
So this, this, I guess it's okay. This counts. Kelly's okay with this. I'm okay with this. I'm gonna let this go.
7:58
Hopefully he didn't put a inside the park home run in a parlay and then show it to Kelly, but other than that.
8:02
[laughs] Um, so it was, it was amazing, too, and, and this is the part where I don't wanna sound like Costas and pick your baseball, you know, just waxer of, of poetry.
8:14
But the beauty of that thing for Giants fans, and anybody who had the Giants as a b- as a bettor, I'm sure, too, but for Giants fans beyond betting, was that when that ball went into the air and was headed to that wall- Yeah...
8:28
every Giants fan knew that the possibility existed that this would not clear the fence. And Angel Pagan did this about a decade ago in a day game against the Rockies.
8:40
I wanna say it was a Sunday afternoon, don't hold me to that. But Angel Pagan did this against the Rockies. It didn't hit that as high as yesterday's did off the top of the wall.
8:48
It was about three-quarters of the way off the wall. It caromed, he rounded the bases, heads- head first slide. Just one of these amazing Giants magic finishes. So when that ball was in the air last night,
9:00
it was like as a Giants fan, you knew before the Phillies themselves got what could have hap- what was about to possibly happen.
9:10
And Brandon Marsh, who was in center field at that time, played the, the foil to a T by over, uh, overcompensating, running through where he should've, and that ball caromed past him, and that was just unbelievable last night.
9:25
Unbelievable. And, uh, I actually thought you were gonna go the other way with this, of the,
9:29
o- of the, once that you saw that ball in the air and its trajectory, just immediately throwing your hands up in the air and be like, "Well, this is a home run anywhere else." Oh, no, no, no, no, no. I stood up.
9:39
You really wanna know what I was doing? I stood up alone in the apartment, hoping almost, a little part of me almost hoped, right? I wanted it to go out.
9:47
But a little part of me almost hoped that it did the carom thing, and as soon as it did, I went into third base coach windmill wave mode by myself- [laughs] In my apartment, screaming.
9:59
And because it, it was just, it's that thing, right, about baseball. We knew this could happen, and the Phillies didn't, and it was this amazing little thing.
10:08
By the way, this is the same ballpark that, of course, not that this had nothing to do with the ballpark earlier this year, but it's the same, uh, venue that produced, uh, Helmit Ramos' Little League home run that won the game for the Giants against the, uh, Rangers earlier this year, where they just threw the ball around the infield.
10:24
Ramos shouldn't have even gotten on base. So anyway, y'all think I'm crazy about Giants magic, and I joke to Borchardt all the time, I'm like, "Did you factor enough Giants magic into your model?"
10:33
And he always laughs, but he had the, he had the Rangers and the Giants in a, uh, parlay yesterday. Never in doubt. Oh my gosh, I forgot about that, yeah. [laughs] Never in doubt. Another base winner, parlay winner.
10:44
Giants win it four to three as minus 164 favorite.
10:47
Man, between that yesterday and then sitting here doing Ready, Set, Bet with Matt Brown on Sunday, and he gets the Tigers run line home when they were down like, what was it, one-nothing in the n- in the ninth?
10:57
Oh, yeah, they tied it. Tie it up one-one and go to extras, yeah. Yeah. And then seven to two or something. Yep. Um, as far as, uh, July wins, [exhales] Mariners lose to the Yankees.
11:07
Remember, between the Yankees and the Tigers, need them to at least go three and three. But the Blue Jays win again. The Blue Jays are eight and O. Blue Jays eight and O out of the chute in July.
11:17
Um, right now they are obviously in first place, and behind them, six win teams. Red Sox six and one, Royals, Tigers, and Giants, the aforementioned Giants, all six and two. But the Jays, hey man, you don't lose.
11:31
Have we ever had a month where a team didn't lose? No, we have not. Blue Jays trying to be the first. You know what? I'm gonna, I'm gonna bet they do lose, Gil. I'm, I'm gonna go out on a limb.
11:39
We'll show that picture of where that ball caromed off the wall yesterday, 'cause I kept trying to stop the tape afterwards to see, like, where did this hit? Um, we'll come back. Will Hill with all of his bets for today.
11:48
That's next. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:51
[upbeat music]VSEN, the sports betting network Unmatched transparency with records updated daily.
12:10
It's the Sharp Plays. They've also got AI betting analysis, real-time global betting information, and alerts directly from the pros. We invite you once again to check out thesharpplays.com. We get texts, we get tweets.
12:22
Uh, this is from, uh, Dave Ross. Dave Ross, Captain America, who hosts By the Books with Jensen Lewis here prior to us every weekday morning here at, uh- The Sauce? The Sauce? That's his nickname.
12:33
Oh, is that what you call him? I, I believe that was a stadium nickname for him back in the day. Oh, I was about to say- Dave, Dave "The Sauce" Ross...
12:39
I was about to say, "Here at VSEN," and right before I said VSEN, you go, "The Sauce?" [laughs] I'm like, "Yes, here at The Sauce."
12:44
Uh, he says, "I absolutely," he texts, he goes, "I absolutely love the in the apartment by yourself one arm wave in the [laughs] wave in the runner action. It is fantastic." Exactly what I do.
12:54
It, it is, it has been years since I, since I have felt bad about, uh, sitting alone by myself and it, it...
13:01
As soon as your, your butt leaves the couch, you know you're acting ridiculous a- and that if anybody could see you, they'd probably laugh. But I, I've gotten, I've gotten past it. [laughs] I don't really care.
13:11
[laughs] Uh, this is, uh, Joe Pita also says, uh, Joe Pita said as a Phillies fan, let me get this correct.
13:18
Joe Pita, our, our buddy, he says, "Every Giants fan knew," he said, "except for Dwayne Kuiper," obviously a Bay Area legend, "but that was a very disappointing call."
13:27
He says, "Like you, I instantly knew that was a potential loss in the making for the Phillies, but Kuiper didn't see it," quote-unquote, "uh, until he was waved around third base." Yeah, he just kept...
13:37
So he goes, "Bailey," what is he? He says, "Bailey's on the move. Bailey's on the move." It was awesome. Okay, I didn't hear that, but I also s- like I, I didn't see, I didn't see it live.
13:47
I saw the replays though, and I'm like, the, the camera work was a little shoddy too. Like, he was basically scoring before I even knew what was going on. Well, the way that that ball caroms, it caroms quick.
13:58
Right, and they were- It like shoots off that wall... they're just, they were just tracking that, like, the entire time. By the time they finally cut back to Bailey it was like, oh, and then he's there. Mm-hmm.
14:05
He, he scored already. [laughs] Uh, Jensen Lewis, by the way, from By The Books, tweeted me that, uh, the Washington Commodores, Commanders going some- with, with some new alternate uniforms this year.
14:17
Those to me look like Joe Gibbs era pants. Oh, I like that. Joe Gibbs era pants. Uh, this is from, uh, this is from Ray. "Hey, Gil, Kelly, does 10/1 on John Schneider for AL Manager of the Year need to be considered?"
14:31
Uh, considered, yes, but I will answer it how I answered, uh, it earlier which is I just don't think the Blue Jays thing is sustainable.
14:38
I get it, 8-0 in the month of July, but I just don't know if, if the Blue Jays by end of season if John Schneider, Manager of the Year, will be a, uh, a bet worth having. Numbers Guys, "Morning, Gil.
14:49
While Iga may have stolen your heart many moons ago, it appears she is stealing towels at Wimbledon." Yeah, you hear about that? She like take a little souvenir here and there. She didn't mean it. What, like, wait.
14:59
Whoa, like did someone have a problem with that? Yeah, I know. Come on. Wouldn't you steal a towel? Matthew Mayberry, of course. Of course. If [laughs] And I'm not playing.
15:07
[laughs] Patrick Bailey walk-off, uh, to cash the base winner parlay. What a god Mark Borchard is. Pick 10, Gil is a Phillies fan, that sucked.
15:16
JB, I can only assume that Fezzik finally tailed the base winner parlay of the day because that was the luckiest luck box of all luck boxes. James Sott, Jim, "LFG Iga to the semis right before the show starts." She knew.
15:29
She did. Um, let's see. Michael Montesano, our buddy, "I can only picture Gil last night after Bailey was [laughs] rounding second last night for game-winning inside-the-park home run."
15:37
He's got a Kramer, uh, a Kramer meme there as well. On and on, we'll get to more tweets, but I wanna get to Will Hill who joins us now courtesy of the Progressive guest line.
15:44
You can follow him on Twitter @NotTheWillHill, host of the Shoulda Bet More podcast, star of the Megapod at Beating The Book, and of course Chris Fallica's Bear Bets podcast empire, not necessarily in that order, at Fox Sports.
15:55
How you doing, Will? Gilly, Kelly, what's going on, guys? Thanks for having me. Thanks for having me. Were you as, uh, excited by that, uh, carom as I was last night? No? No? Nothing? Uh, no. No, I wasn't. Yeah. Okay.
16:07
Never mind. I was fine with it. I mean, I'm, I'm happy you're happy, but, uh- Yeah... was I as excited? No. No, of course not. Of course not. That's why I asked. Uh, the inside-the-park home run's always just fun though.
16:15
Fantastic. It's just fun. Especially when it's a catcher. Are you kidding me? All right, what do you got in baseball today? Full slate, baby. What do you got? Yeah, I got a, a decent number of bets here.
16:24
I took the, uh, I took the Reds here in the -140 or so range.
16:28
Abbott going against Alcantara, and it's funny, uh, the Marlins have been sneaky good here, and if Sandy had pitched like the Sandy they've expected, the Sandy of old, the Marlins would be right there for a wild card 'cause they've swung the bats well.
16:40
Uh, Perez and Cabrera have been really good for them, but, uh, Abbott's been outstanding. He's better on the road than at home, but Abbott's been really good here, just named to the All-Star team.
16:49
Uh, Alcantara's just been awful. He's gotten hammered his last two times out. So I get the better team, I get the better starting pitcher, I'm home, and I only have to lay like a dollar 40 or so. So, uh, I took the Reds.
17:00
I also took the Mets, uh, and that was a brutal last, brutal loss last night for, uh, for Baltimore. I've always, uh, you know, these last couple weeks I've had one eye kind of on Baltimore. Can they make a run?
17:11
Charlie Morton pitching really well, Rogers pitching well, good lineup. Maybe they get some of these pitchers back. You can't have losses like that when you're trying to make up ground like Baltimore is.
17:19
So, uh, Sagano going for Baltimore. His last two starts, 21 base runners and, uh, 13 earned runs, seven in one start, six in another. Mets swinging the bats well in that ballpark. Is this that good? Is this good?
17:31
I think they should be able to score some runs. Yeah. Depends, uh, depends how you define good, I guess. Oh. Uh, so I, I like the Mets on the money line, and if you, it's like -155 or so.
17:39
If that's too rich for your blood, over two and a half first five team total for the Mets is another way to play that. I like both of those. And then I did take Red Sox.
17:48
I'm gonna go with a, a unique one here against the Rockies, and they've been scoring a million runs here against Colorado. Uh, over four and a half team total for the first seven.
17:56
So as the home team, as a $3 favorite, uh, they're probably not gonna get the ninth at bat, so just shave that off. Just go to a first seven team total, and you go over four and a half. Santozella's been awful.
18:05
Red Sox have scored a bunch here against Colorado. So, uh, those are the ones I like. I've thought about, uh, I- I, I'll call it another play here on Philly. Uh, first five money line.
18:14
Verlander, to me, has just been a fade. It's been a great career. Uh, and as you mentioned, Brandon Marsh is still somewhere in San Francisco chasing that ball.
18:22
But, uh, I, I think Luzardo over Verlander is a matchup you have to play. Although Philly has not swung the bats well.
18:27
There's a few of these teams in baseball here that just, you think of the team and you think of the names on the team, and you think, "Oh, that team's got a good offense." The Rangers, the Padres, the Phillies.
18:37
But then you look at the stats, and these teams struggle to score. The Phillies have not hit the ball well. But Phillies, I would play here on the first five in the money line. So Mets team total over in the first five.
18:46
Red Sox first seven team total over. Uh, Reds money line, and I'll go Phillies first five money line. Four plays for you. Yeah, I don't know if this means anything at all, but I'll just throw it out there.
18:56
That Phil Cuzzi game, not last night, but the night before- Oh... where the Phillies were just getting hosed, I didn't think the Phillies were mad enough. Does that, does that make any sense?
19:05
Like, I, I just, I, it felt they, they did object a little bit, right? But not near, I, I would've expected them to go ballistic. Like manager tossed, players tossed. And it just felt like they were like...
19:18
And I don't know if that's 'cause they just think Phil Cuzzi's so bad there's no point. [laughs] Maybe that was it. But I did f- it did feel a little lifeless to me. Take that for what it's worth, if it's worth anything.
19:28
Yeah. And I think, I, I do think sometimes in the dugout, uh, you know, I've known this from, from playing baseball and coaching and stuff, it's very hard to tell inside and out.
19:35
So you could say, "Oh man, that looked like a strike," but you re- it's, it's impossible just from like a, I don't know, a depth perception standpoint to tell inside and out.
19:42
So you could think you're getting screwed on a call, but it could be off the plate one way or another. It could be over the plate.
19:47
So the, the in and out could be hard to tell from a dugout, but I agree, their reaction did not match the, uh, the crime. And this is so easy to fix if you're baseball. I don't know why we're still doing this.
19:56
I know I'm not the first person to think of this or, you know, mention this, but it's so easy.
20:00
You could be, you could literally be sitting on your couch and know what's a ball, what's a strike, without even watching the game. The technology's so good. Why do we still have the human element here?
20:09
Uh, it just, it makes no sense, and it is very frustrating, especially when you have player props, pitcher props, and you know, it's, uh, you bet under strikeouts and a pitch six inches off the plate's called for a strike and it beats you on a prop.
20:19
It's just so, so irritating. So easily fixable. It's, it is insane that we, we are still talking about this stuff. It, it is insane. I mean, it is years.
20:27
So like Will just said, like, I'm not the first person to bring it up. Right. Like yeah, 'cause the first person was like 11 years ago at this point. But Will- What are we doing?
20:34
But Will also astutely picked up on something else, which is players.
20:38
From, from our vantage point watching TV, it's so clear, but the reason players don't want challenge, a challenge rule in effect, is 'cause they're not 100% sure from where they're standing. Mm-hmm.
20:50
So, like it's this weird thing. Yeah, the dugout angle's tough. Yeah. It's this weird thing where they're like, "Oh, I'm mad, but do I really want that responsibility?" Um, couple minutes here, Will.
20:58
Give us, give us an NFL take that is very Will Hill-ish that most people don't have. Uh, yeah, I guess I, I've been planting my flag here on the Arizona Cardinals over.
21:08
And really, the w- the way I like to play it, I, I think the best bang for your buck is Gannon Coach of the Year because, uh, I, I think that first of all, they really addressed their defense.
21:16
They went basically all draft, you know, all defense in their draft here.
21:20
And I, I understand, and when you look at the division, the Rams, the 49ers, but the, the 49ers lost a lot of talent out the door defensively, and that core is older offensively, uh, with McCaffrey and Kittle and Trent Williams.
21:33
So, uh, I, I think there's a path, especially with an easy schedule for Arizona, where they start with the Titans. They get Tyler Shuck and the Saints.
21:40
They get Bryce Young and Carolina, although I think Carolina's might be a little bit better than people think. They get the Colts.
21:46
Uh, they get Darnold behind a, a, a new offensive line, a shaky offensive line with Seattle. There's a path for them to start four and one, five and two, something like that.
21:54
And if they ever won the division, instead of taking the plus 450 to win the division, Gannon is going to be on the short list of Coach of the Year candidates 'cause they haven't made the playoffs in a couple years.
22:02
It would be a good story. Uh, I think the offense was seventh in the league last year, yards per play on offense. I think offense tends to translate more year to year than defense.
22:11
And I do think the defense, you know, can be better. And they lost a lot of close games, I think three and five in one-score games.
22:15
So to me, Arizona having a really good season, winning 10, 11 games, and Gannon being Coach of the Year at 20 to one, I think is, uh, i- is a bet I certainly like. It's a good call.
22:23
I talked about the Cardinals yesterday when we were talking NFC West. Like you said, drafted all defense. Free agency, Calais Campbell, Josh Sweat, Tomlinson.
22:32
Free agency, Kyler said he's gonna run more this year, that he was hurt last year even when he had his best QBR. And Marvin Harrison can only go up from a pretty ho-hum rookie year.
22:42
And then, by the way, I ran into two Cardinals fans [laughs] at the Sports Book last night. Oh, really? Rich and Nick, and Nick is like, "Nah, I don't see it," but I love how fans of the own team are so defeatist.
22:51
Will, thank you, man. You're the best. Appreciate it. All right. See you guys. Thanks. NFL MVP Super Bowl next. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Wanna bet smarter?
23:06
Start with smarter insights. Right now you can check out Wes Reynolds' Scottish Open preview and picks, Greg Peterson's MLB best bets, and JVT's NBA Summer League tips. Jonathan Montolko gonna make a appearance today?
23:16
Yes, he is. On the show? I didn't even tell him really what we're doing, but I know he'll be prepared. Let's- Rapid fire win totals. Yeah. We're gonna do what we did yesterday with you. We're gonna rapid fire win totals.
23:24
Here- But you're, you're just gonna fire them off at me and JVT, and we'll see which ones we instantly, uh, differ on. Instant reactions.
23:29
By the way, later today on the website you can check out Steve Makinen's MLB analytics report and his NASCAR simulation for the Toyota Save Mart 350, and Zach Cohen's Wimbledon picks of course.
23:41
Right now you can sign up for full VSiN Pro access until the Super Bowl for only $175. Head to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today. We get tweets at Beating The Book. Y'all are the best. Uh, this is from 3JackH3131.
23:57
"Gil, as a Blue Jays fa- uh, as a Blue Jays For Most Wins in July ticket holder, I kindly ask that you keep your voice down." [laughs] Capital letters.
24:07
I, I think that was at me saying, "I bet you they're gonna lose at some point."
24:10
[laughs] Oh, uh, Mark Meltzer Like Seltzer, he says, "Someone ch- do a safety check on Gil 'cause the, uh, Commanders are going to all, are going Joe Gibbs unis as alternate jerseys."
24:20
They're like, I looked it up quick though. They're like, they are, but like somehow they can't just go straight throwbacks. Like, they have to, like, make them worse. Are we going with the old logo?
24:31
Are we going with the old, you know- I don't think so... Native American head on the, uh- I think we're still fish taco holders. S- well, I know we're not going name.
24:39
Can't put that genie back in the bottle, but I'm just talking about the logo. Yeah, I don't think you can do that either. I think you can. I disagree. [laughs] I'll fight you on it. Daytime Degenerate.
24:50
Uh, "Are baseballs the only thing that carom? Is the wide receiver room- Oh... worried about a carom?" Great call. Mm. In broad daylight. [laughs] This is a, this is a good call.
25:01
This is, this is- Are baseballs ever gonna carom... this is near that list. Near that list. Mm, I'll have to think about that for a second.
25:07
Dan Groeschel, "As a lifelong Bucs fan, I was on my feet TV coaching from my living room for the fourth quarter of game six against the Suns in the NBA finals.
25:17
I had to do it quietly though, uh, so I wouldn't wake the wife and kids, both under two at the time, up from sleep.
25:24
The things we do as sports fans," uh, r- relating to my, uh, my windmill wave of Patrick Bailey in [laughs] yesterday. Bailey's on the move.
25:32
Donny Miller, uh, "Do we know," oh, he's talking about the, uh, the, uh, Seinfeld meme from earlier. "Nash, what's a funnier action sports fans do?
25:40
The third base coach windmill swinging of the arms signaling a guy home, or the guy in horse racing who smacks his behind yelling, 'Come on, three,' hoping his horse runs faster?" Uh, it's- Oh, that's way worse...
25:52
it's the latter. Yeah, that one's way worse. Well, he asked, what did he ask? "What's funnier?" he said. Oh. Oh.
25:58
Uh, the, the horse racing one, if you've ever seen our good friend Chris Fallica betting on a horse race, he gets in that crouch. Okay, now I wanna see this. Oh, it... First of all, he doesn't warn you, right?
26:10
'Cause you're following other sports in the sports book, but he's fixated on a horse race.
26:14
So all of a sudden you're watching something, and Fallica, he, he gets in that weird, it's like, it's not a full crouch, it's not a full like, uh, uh, what do you call it, the weight squat, right?
26:23
It's like sort of a three-quarters thing. He's smacking himself, and he's like, "Come on, three."
26:28
It's not even, "Come on, three," he has other language that doesn't even make any sense, but ends with the number three or whatever horse race he bet- horse he's betting on. That's worse.
26:35
So he usually- It's also, it, I don't know if it's funnier, but it's odder...
26:38
so I think Rob Reno would be the only one in the back that might remember this, but the, uh, when we were at the South Point, I us- I, I, I'd like to take a, if I, if I, if I was there for a long day, maybe I'd grab a hot dog or something at the great hot dog stand there for $2.50.
26:53
Is that what they are? 2.50, right? Wow. Wait. At South Point? Yeah. Used to be 1.50 I thought. 1.50. Yeah. It's been a while. I forgot the price. Yeah. Yeah.
27:00
Um, and I'd go over, and I would enjoy it over in the race book because ev- you would get, like, the three old dudes- Oh, yeah... on a random Tuesday afternoon at like 1:37 PM, and it is exactly what you're talking.
27:13
They'd take their racing, the race odds, right? Yeah. And be like, "All right, come on three, come on three." And you're like, "What is going on?" Just like that. "What is going on?" Just like.
27:20
I thought Fallica was having a medical event the first time I saw it. I was like, "What's going on?" I wanna see Chris do it now. Uh, Julio Rousseau, Rousseau, hope I'm pronouncing that right. Roussio. Julio N.
27:31
Roussio, uh, "What does Gil think about the Commodore's new uniforms?" I think anything that invokes early '80s Joe Gibbs uniforms makes me very happy. Hope they wear it a few times.
27:42
Brooklyn Betts, "J's minus 195 race for 10 wins at DraftKing in the month of July versus the White Sox today and the A's next seems short," he says. Yeah, he might be right. Might be right.
27:54
Um, let's do some NFL MVP plus Super Bowl winner odds. This is available at DraftKings, Kelly, yes? Yes.
28:00
Uh, so this is regular season MVP, so as we were talking about earlier, they won't let you parlay regular season MVP with the Super Bowl winner. They won't let you do that. So what did they do?
28:12
They decided to throw them into one market and mess you up on the parlay payout [laughs] is essentially what they did.
28:19
Let's just, so let's just do this mathematically first before we get into our thoughts, 'cause our thoughts are secondary to the math. Yes. Truly.
28:27
Uh, so let's take Josh Allen and, and the Bills, and Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. I think most would agree makes sense that they're the short shots, right? Oh, I, yes. Okay. They're both 20 to one.
28:41
And I, and Gil, on, even on top of that, I don't know. I understand why this would be attractive to a lot of people, because I don't know
28:49
the, like, think of the last time where you would have teams and MVPs like this correlate. Like they, it- Agree...
28:55
you know what I, like- Well, I mean, quarterbacks are u- are, are, are obviously gonna be favorites for MVP, so- It just feels like it's J- it's Allen or Jackson like every year now.
29:05
Okay, but let's just get to the, to the brass tacks of this. You're getting 20 to one on this. Do you know what it ought to be- First thing I-... if you actually did the math on this? First thing I did.
29:14
Over 47 to one, right? 47 and a half to one, and you're getting 20 to one. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs listed at 35 to one. You know what that should be? 71 to one. Let's just do these one by one.
29:26
Jayden Daniels and the Commanders, Jalen Hurts and the Eagles, Joe Burrow and the Bengals, all listed at 60 to one. Jayden Daniels ought to be 160 and a half to one. Well, that, this is even the next thing, right?
29:39
The n- 60 to one all the same price on all three. I bet you're about to give me three different prices for them. I am indeed. Uh, actually, Jayden Daniels is the longest of them, 160 and a half to one.
29:50
Joe Burrow's 156 and a half to one. Jalen Hurts is 134 and a half to one, and DraftKings is giving you 60 to one on each of them. Yeah. Uh, let's continue. I think it only gets worse. Oh, it do.
30:01
[laughs] Jared Goff and the Lions listed at 150 to one. Again, this is regular season MVP and your team wins the Super Bowl. 150 to one. Do you know what that should be?
30:13
3,130 to one based on the prices in the individual markets. I think that's the worst of the bunch. Justin Herbert and the Chargers listed at 180 to one. That should be 550 to one.
30:26
Saquon and the Eagles and Derrick Henry and the Ravens each listed at 200 to one. Saquon and the Eagles should be 381 and a half to one. Derrick Henry should be 456 and a half to one.
30:39
So as long as you know you're getting screwed on the math, we can then continue the conversation. Yes. Yeah, yeah, yeah. No, you are right, though. Yeah. That is where you have to start. Absolutely.
30:47
Well, pro, I don't know if you wanna continue it, but for giggles, why not? Um, if you were... Le- let's just do it this way.
30:55
All right, you live in a bizarro world, and I say to you, "Kelly, Calais Campbell, you must bet one of these. Math be damned. Which is the one you bet?" It's probably still Allen and the Bills. Yeah.
31:12
It- I'll, I'll throw out a couple others that s- that stood out to me as long shots Burrow and the Bengals is the one that sticks out to me. Okay. I got longer ones for you. So I already bet...
31:21
Like, I bet Stafford MVP, right? So Stafford and Rams is 350 to one. Oh, I did not even list it here. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. They, they've got a ton of combinations up. I just grabbed the top 10 and the odds.
31:33
Uh, 49ers and Purdy, 300 to one. Do they have, uh, Shuck and the Saints? Do they have that one up there anywhere? Oh my gosh, that would be great. [laughs] Actually let... Now, now I'm very interested to see. No.
31:44
[laughs] Yeah, I wouldn't think so. I was just being stupid.
31:47
But I'm, I'm, uh, I'm just saying, of all these, again, knowing that you're getting screwed, J- we've seen Joe, [clears throat] pardon me, we've seen Joe Burrow get to a Super Bowl before, right?
31:56
As long as he can avoid injury, we've seen Joe Burrow come within three points of forcing overtime in a Super Bowl. Um,
32:05
Joe Burrow, I don't think it would be hard for anybody to see Joe Burrow putting up ridiculous regular season numbers. Yep. For the Bengals to,
32:15
I guess, you know, obviously the Ravens are gonna have something to say about this, but if the Bengals won that division, it wouldn't be the most surprising thing on planet Earth.
32:23
I don't expect them to, but I don't think anybody would be that shocked. And then the Bengals with him and that offense,
32:30
um, I, I just think 60 to one is, it's, it's a terrible number on it, but if you forced me to bet one, that's probably the number I would go with here.
32:38
I think the Bengals off-season discussion has been interesting to hear, because I don't really see a big difference from what we saw a year ago playing out this year.
32:47
I think the offense could be get- And remember, we couldn't stop talking about them in previous years. Yeah. Right. Yeah. Ex- exactly. Yeah. No, no, I'm glad you said that. Yeah. Because previous years, absolutely.
32:56
I'm just, I don't wanna say I'm, I'm down on them, but it's just, it's what we saw last year. I expect the offense to be amazing, and I don't really know [laughs] that the defense is gonna be...
33:06
I mean, they can't be mu- they can't be much worse than they were last year. But are they really gonna be much better? I, I don't know. Um, you still got this whole Trey Hendricks thing, uh, Hendrickson thing going on.
33:16
Like, I don't... It, the Ravens are so good. Yeah, they are. And again, you're right. Probably, I mean, like, J- Josh Allen and the Bills, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
33:27
Are you gonna s- are you gonna scoff at anybody who would take those? Of course not. Of course not. No. Except for the number is horrific.
33:35
Belinda Bencic, Mirra Andreeva, second set tiebreaker once again after, uh, Bencic won the first. We shall see. Could be over momentarily.
33:43
Coming back with so much, including Greg Peterson on baseball, all of his plays on a full day slate next. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:52
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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34:52
Uh, we had tweets at Beating The Book of, this is [laughs] I wanna, I'll Ron Burgundy through. Here we go. This is from, uh, Charles in Connecticut.
35:01
"Literally just did a spit take with my morning coffee with your description of Falica during a horse race. Thanks for always being more than just a dull betting show." Oh, you're welcome.
35:09
Chris, Chris is F- Chris Falica deserves all the credit for providing that kind of comedy when he's watching horse racing, uh, betting on it. Prime Time Cowboys_Cubs1. Oh, get ready for some, uh, skin slurs here.
35:20
Ready for this? "Yo, hey man, I suggest the, uh, the Washington football team's throwback," although he doesn't go WFT, you can imagine what he says when he, when he describes them. He's a Cowboys fan.
35:30
"I suggest the, uh, the, the Washington football team's throwback unis are 100% cotton because cotton breathes. Just ask a stanza.
35:36
The world also awaits Kelly's parlay of first round leaders in all three golf tournaments this week." [laughs] Here at country club, and Kelly, uh, Kate Michael Bidland loves himself a big parlay. Yes, he does.
35:47
Oh, he does. Yeah, that's well done. That caught a lot of fire, your parlay disdain. Uh, Touchdown Jaysus, AL- The, the best is when people just play into it. Yes. You know?
35:56
They're like sending me the like, "You people can win doing this." And I'm like, "Yeah, no, no, no." I love that. I love the person yesterday, "We see people can win parlays, Kelly." Touchdown Jaysus.
36:04
AL manager of the year, he says AJ Hinch, way too big of a favorite leading, uh, a weak Central, he thinks. And Detroit most likely team to take foot off the gas with a 15 game lead.
36:14
Schneider 10 to one value with legit chance to win division and a spot of 40 to one potential value if the Tigers have one bad stretch.
36:21
Um, that's an interesting take on, uh, AJ Hinch and the Tigers taking their, uh, their foot off the gas, to use his, uh, metaphor. Interesting. Hmm Okay. Uh, and, uh, let's see, what else we got here?
36:34
This is from Joe C: "No, seriously, we've had HawkEye for 130 mile per hour serves in tennis for how long, and baseball can't implement similar technology?" Yeah. It's wild. I, I just- Yeah...
36:44
the, the tone in Will's voice was so perfect when he said it, 'cause, like, I, I, I'm tired of talking about it. I'm tired of listening to people talk. Like, why haven't we made this change? It's so absurd.
36:54
In every sport. Yeah. But that's an interesting point about the challenges, right? Players don't want it.
37:00
As much as they, you know, it's like, "Oh, we need to have a, we need to have a, a electronic system, but, but if, but that's the only way we wanna do it. We don't want a challenge system."
37:09
"Chance Copper Pot: Gil, I notice you don't give out tennis totals as much as sides. I do prefer the totals. [laughs] Is there a specific reason for that? Value? Let's go, Iga."
37:17
Uh, he's commenting on the fact that we hit a total yesterday, we hit a total this morning. Hopefully we hit another total here. Uh, there's, there's no reason for that, although on grass, maybe I should employ that.
37:25
You're 100% right. Um, I've had great success on, on hard courts and clay with sides. No need to change there. Um, but you're right, on grass, perhaps the proof is in the pudding. G- uh, this is a, this is a real treat.
37:38
Uh, Greg Peterson joins us once again on the show to talk baseball with us.
37:41
His middle name is Hoops because he knows college basketball above all, but the man also podcasts about baseball and bets really a whole bunch on it. He joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line.
37:52
Greg Peterson, everybody, where you can follow him on Twitter again at, uh, gunit_81, host of the Baseball Betting Show. How you doing, Greg? Gil, I am doing great.
38:03
We are getting into the last few days before the All-Star break, so prime time, make some money.
38:08
Okay, and for those who are unfamiliar with you, um, who are, you know, are listeners to this show but may not have listened long enough when, when, you know, since the days when you came on regularly, I just wanna, again, say how much we enjoy having you on the show.
38:23
You are an, you have encyclopedic knowledge in college basketball. You love baseball. The, for those who did listen to you back in the day, we need a few updates.
38:32
One, do you still run 12 miles a day with no sunscreen on? Well, we do employ some sc- sunscreen, or else my head would be completely burnt to a crisp right now- Okay... and that would not be good.
38:47
But absolutely, the running outside still happens, and it happens every single day. 12 miles a day. The dude is a machine. You know, do you know how much better shape I've gotten in in the past year?
38:57
And I would still die. Die. Like, literally die. Well, it's also 100 million degrees outside. Yeah.
39:02
And then the other thing, Greg, and forgive me, again, I do this from love, but people who listened to you on this show many years ago will remember that you, in your dating life, were a self-described, this is you talking, quote, "volume shooter," unquote.
39:17
Have you settled down? What is your love life like these days? Are you married? What's the, what's the status? Well, we were married, and now we're back out there in the field, but settling down again, so- Okay...
39:29
we're sort of on the winding road, and we shall see where it takes us from here. But we still might be going back into Carmelo Anthony mode. [laughs] Okay. Thank you, Greg. I say- He's never gonna rule it out.
39:42
[laughs] I ask you that all out of love. Thank you for the update. I th- I think the listeners will be thrilled to know that. What they'll also wanna know is, is your baseball plays today. Full slate. I throw it to you.
39:53
Where do we start this morning? Oh, absolutely, and we're gonna go into Carmelo Anthony mode here as well because we've got ourselves a great slate.
40:01
And this is one, one that has been moving around a little bit, but still seeing a lot of plus 140 out there on the Milwaukee Brewers.
40:08
I'm willing to take a shot on fading Tyler Glasnow in his first start off the injured list in about two months. José Quintana hasn't necessarily been a whole lot to write home about.
40:16
Um, he's gotten the job done relatively effectively for the Brewers. Field independent is about a point higher than the ERA.
40:23
Not necessarily too much of a strikeout guy, but for Glasnow, coming off the injured list, he made three starts over at Triple-A Oklahoma City for the Dodgers, 831 ERA, very much less than impressive.
40:34
And the Dodgers are on a five-game losing streak. You don't find that very often, and Brewers have really been able to heat up.
40:41
Not necessarily a ton of power out of this Brewers team, but they do a nice job playing station-to-station baseball.
40:46
Given that sort of a plus number and an eight and a half, I like the over and I like the money line in terms of the, one of the earliest games that we'll find.
40:52
Yeah, br- brief aside, how about Mizejewski against yesterday for the Brewers? He gives up the lead off- The Mizz... amazing. Le- lead off homer to Ohtani, then he's like, "Okay, that's behind me.
41:02
Here's 12 K's in your face, Dodgers." That was just amazing. He is, y- you would bet him for Rookie of the Year in the National League? Yes? I just don't know how you bet on anyone else right now. Yeah.
41:13
He has been absolutely incredible, so I'd be certainly betting on him. Okay, so over, you said, in the Dodgers-Brewers game, yes, to start? Over on the Brewers money line, yep.
41:23
Oh, oh, okay, over on the Brewers at plus 141 on the money line here in a, uh, day game- Yes... at American Family Field in Milwaukee. What's next? How about if we go with another day game?
41:34
This is the Giants and the Philadelphia Phillies. Ace Luzardo has an ERA north of four, but a lot of it is because of two really bad starts he had where he gave up a combined 20 runs.
41:44
Like a lot of people forget, through his first 11 starts, he was looking like a fringe Cy Young candidate, and then things went completely sideways for him.
41:53
Going against a Giants unit that has been a little bit rough with regards to their offense. And then on the Giants side of things, for Justin Verlander, he has not gotten a win this year.
42:01
I feel like he's pitched a little bit better than this. And for the Phillies, guys not named Kyle Schwarber not necessarily generating a lot of offense.
42:08
Right now I'm seeing that total going from an eight to an eight and a half. I wrote this up for the Vsip website at an eight. I like that eight and a half under.
42:15
And with the Giants being right around about a plus 115 or so, like that Giants money line too.
42:20
Yeah, Lu- Luzardo's, uh, splits against left-handed batters, his K rate is like 45%, something like that, uh, for the Philadelphia Phillies. Um, okay, next, what do you got?
42:34
Next, we've got Antonio Senzatela and a total of nine. Antonio Senzatela's giving up north of 13 and a half hits per nine innings. Like, just think of your favorite baseball team.
42:45
If they get 13 hits in a game, you're calling it a banner day. That, for Antonio Senzatela, is a Wednesday afternoon.
42:51
[laughs] And Lucas Giolito has been better for the Boston Red Sox, but still have a few question marks there.
42:57
That total of nine out there in Fedway is just too low for me, and I do think that the Boston Red Sox completely dominate this game. I would say I would get that run line more in the neighborhood of about a minus 145.
43:07
We're starting to get a little bit too high at a minus 150, so I would lay off a little bit more on that run line now that it's starting to creep up. But I do like that total over.
43:15
I think that Senzatela just continues to give up hits. Greg, why do the Rockies just keep throwing out the Senzatalas and the Freelons of the world year after year? I mean, is this...
43:26
This is the worst franchise in, in baseball, isn't it? In every way. Yeah, the, the,
43:31
it- the ownership and the front office just has no idea what they're doing, and that albatross of a Chris Bryant contract, that and the Anthony Rendon deal, two worst deals in all of baseball. Brutal.
43:42
All right, give us one more. What do you got? One more. We've got ourselves the Pirates and the Kansas City Royals, total of eight and a half. Pirates averaging less than three runs per game away from home.
43:53
Royals averaging three runs per game at home. And Kris with a K Bubic has been absolutely superb, sub 2.50 ERA. Love the way that he's rocking.
44:01
And Bailey Falter, in 11 out of his last 12 starts, three runs or fewer allowed. Two top 10 bullpens in terms of ERA ever since May 1st. So I just take a look at this total, and it's too high.
44:12
And if I had to play it right now, I'd be looking at the Pirates at a plus 160. Just getting too high with how bad this Royals offense is, so Pirates and the under. Greg, totally appreciate it.
44:23
Uh, when's the next baseball betting show? You do it daily? Every single day, midnight Pacific, 3:00 AM Eastern, wherever you get your podcasts. Love it, and may you find love again, Greg. May you find love again.
44:36
Thank you so much. Thank you, sir, and I think that we hopefully have found it. [laughs] Okay, there's ano- an update to an update coming back right here on the Numbers Game at VSiN.
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