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Jul 9, 2026
A Numbers Game | July 9, 2026 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | July 9, 2026 | Hour 1
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46:11
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Transcript
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[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story. They always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
1:11
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander in San Francisco.
1:21
Kelly Betten back at the mothership in Las Vegas at the VSiN studios atop the Circa sportsbook. Good morning, sir. Good morning. How we doing? Doing very well. Good.
1:31
Um, on the show today, it is Thursday, you know what that means. Zach and Crack. Zach Cohen, any Wimbledon that he might have left, he'll join us in about a half hour. Um, we have the women's semis today.
1:43
I am on both, uh, both matches. I have Coco Gauff here in the first match as a slight dog against Karolina Muchova. They have just begun the third set. Uh, Muchova won the first set 6-2.
1:55
Gauff came back, won the second set 6-1. I'm on Coco as a slight dog. And in the second match, Kelly, I am on Linda Nosková as a slight dog, uh, in that one against Marta Kostyuk.
2:06
So we shall see how those go, uh, after what was not a fun day at all yesterday, the big offer at, uh, Wimbledon. So we'll see if, uh, Zach is on. Uh, Co- Gauff has already started, as I mentioned.
2:18
We'll see if Zach is oppo me on this one today, if he's with me on Nosková, if he's gonna go to tomorrow's men's semis. We shall see what Zach has. You pumped for the men's semis, Sinner versus Djokovic tomorrow? No?
2:30
Hell yeah. Let's go, man. A- and Art, and Art Ferry. Let's go. Art- That's the bigger story... and Arthur F- Arthur Ferry, the British sensation out of nowhere against Sasha Zverev. Yeah. What a, what a story.
2:42
Ah, it's incredible. What a story. It's incredible. I almost, I almost joined you on Coco, uh, but I was too late this morning. Maybe I'll get in live here. It's one set a piece- May- maybe you will... right? Yeah.
2:50
One set a piece, and I believe on serve early. Yeah, on serve early in the first set, about to be 1-1, I think. Um, yeah, and I'm, I'm curious if Zach...
2:58
You know, 'cause when we-- Zach Cohen, Drew Dinsick, and I, Drew and I have done these tennis podcasts for over half a decade now for every slam.
3:08
Uh, and Zach joined us, uh, during our stretch as well, uh, once Dan Weston went to the cricket world.
3:14
Remember, the Wimbledon podcasts are the ones where there w- [laughs] there was one year we didn't even mention the eventual champion on the podcast when she won, which was your girl Markéta Vondroušová.
3:25
I don't think any of us mentioned Arthur Ferry at any point. My guess is- I'm gonna guess not. Yeah. I mean, this, he's even more absurd than Vondroušová, right? Oh, without question. Yeah, okay. Without question. Yeah.
3:36
Yeah, yeah, not close. So it'd be pretty shocking, I guess, if anybody [laughs] you guys had him. Yeah, Zach and Crack though, of course, the, uh, second part of that.
3:44
Uh, Bill Krackomberger, unscripted, later on the show in studio with Kelly because Kelly has been lonely for too long. That's right. So Crack joins you again.
3:51
By the way, you get Crack in studio today, and I do believe Steve Fezzik in studio tomorrow- Woo... now that fireworks are behind us. Let's go. Um, yeah, so we get that tomorrow.
4:00
Uh, also today we'll look at some NFC divisions. We'll look at this MLB race, not only in July, where the Red Sox continue to win. They're in third place right now at five and one.
4:11
Uh, only the Brewers have more wins at six and two. Our 80 to one shot on the Red Sox. But we'll talk about the race to 10 wins and the race to 40 homers perhaps a little later on, uh, as well.
4:23
Paul Carr on the World Cup. The World Cup resumes today. Quarterfinals, France and Morocco. Looking forward to that. Uh, Kelly, I have bet the draw in this at plus 299. France is minus 170 on the three-way.
4:37
Morocco plus 550. This one is in Foxborough. It's at 4:00 PM Eastern, 1:00 PM Pacific. Tomorrow it's Spain and Belgium. Spain is a minus 155 favorite on the three-way. Uh, the draw is plus 290 in that one.
4:48
That's at SoFi. And then Saturday, the doubleheader, Norway and England in Miami at 5:00 PM Eastern, with England a minus 115 favorite on the three-way.
4:59
And then 9:00 PM Eastern on Saturday, the second of the doubleheader, Argentina and Switzerland. Argentina minus 145 favorite on the three-way. That one's in Kansas City. Have you made any bets- I have...
5:10
in any of these? Actually, yeah, I fired away yesterday on a few things. So I think I bet, on the show I had the Spain win to nil with Falica, so I'm on that for tomorrow.
5:19
Nothing today for me because I'm loaded up on France future, so I'll just be road- uh, rooting on them. Uh, I, I don't, you know. Th- th- you can get your draw as long as France win- wins in extra time, okay?
5:31
Uh, but yeah, France- Yeah... I'll just be rooting hard for that. And, uh, then I bet, I got my Norway bets in. This is what I settled on, Gil.
5:39
I took Norway on the double chance, uh, plus half a goal, minus 101 for Saturday, and then a little Norway to one correct score at 15 to one. That's, uh, that's all I've bet so far. Might be adding a little bit- Wow...
5:51
more to Norway. Uh, but, uh, but it's, it's always fun playing around with the correct score, uh, uh, markets. So played that and, uh, yeah, that's it. Ar- nothing for me in Argentina, Switzerland.
6:00
I think that's gonna be the one game I leave alone. How's the golf going after one day? Ooh, looking pretty good. We are at Scottish Open. It is not fully-- We got, like, the, the...
6:10
Remember, they play golf for, like, 19 hours a day over there 'cause it's daylight- Yeah... so much, right? So you get, like, the afternoon wave is starting kinda, like, right now. Morning wave was good, though.
6:21
Tom Kim with a share of the lead, Bernd Wiesberger with a share of the lead, all at five under. Patrick Cantlay with a share of the lead, and Rory McIlroy with a share of the lead right now.
6:29
All four of those guys at five under par. I've got outrights on Rory, top 20s on Cantlay and Tom Kim. So pretty good start, uh, over there.
6:38
Just one shot back is Brooks Koepka, Min Woo Lee, Kurt Kitayama, all these guys in the clubhouse done for the day.
6:46
Uh, you've got Scottie Scheffler, Matt Fitzpatrick, those guys are just getting started right now as the kinda next featured group wave.
6:53
Uh, here is, by the way, we can update the, uh, July wins that I just, uh, alluded to with the Red Sox beating the White Sox yet again yesterday.
7:01
Now only four days left, four games left for the Red Sox before the All-Star break. And again, the whole deal was let's exploit this early part of the schedule.
7:11
The Red Sox, unlike the Cubs last month, are doing just that. So again, five and one out of the gate. Uh, you see them right there. There's the Brewers at six and three. Pardon me, I said six and two.
7:21
Six and three after they lose to the Cardinals yesterday.
7:24
Twinkies are five and one as well, though, right there with the Red Sox, as are the Tigers, who besides the Marlins have the best re- uh, best record in all of Major League Baseball since the beginning [chuckles] of June.
7:35
And there are the Marlins at five and two. Rockies, Rays, Dodgers, as the Dodgers and Rockies trade wins with each other. By the way, uh, the Rays at five and three.
7:44
The Rays have now taken two of three from the Yankees in their four-game set. The fourth is today.
7:50
Boy, the Yankees desperately need to win this today to sort of have those four games just be a wash and maintain only being four games behind the, uh, the Rays in the, uh, AL East as they approach the last series before the All-Star break.
8:08
Do, do we have this tweet? If we don't, I would like... Yes, we do. Here it is. Perfect. Way to go, Higgins. This is for... This is-- Way to go, Danny Higgins.
8:14
This is the Yankee- I was really just talking trash when I sent this over this morning [laughs] 'cause he's a Yankees fan. This is Yankee... No, but this is Yankee_Hawk- Yeah... Bronx Hawk.
8:22
This is the averages over the last 10 games of the Yankees lineup. Cody Bellinger's hitting 103, 4 of 39. Ben Rice and Jasson Domínguez are the real, are the real batting average boons in this, in this lineup.
8:37
Ben Rice is hitting 216 over the last 10 games. Jasson Domínguez is hitting 229. Goldschmidt's 0 for 34. Is that real? Is that correct? Is that-- Yeah, is that real? 0 for 34.
8:47
Like, why, why aren't we talking about this more? 0 for 34 over 10 games? My God. Volpe's 5 of 28. He's hitting 179. Caballero's 6 of 33. He's hitting 182.
8:57
Austin Wells, whose OBP this year is the most anemic thing you'll ever see, 1 of 24 for a 0 for 2 batting average over the last 10. Jazz Chisholm, uh, 5 of 28 for 179, and Ryan McMahon's hitting 208.
9:13
This is brutality. So if the Yankees can somehow figure out a way to win today and, and break even in the four-game set with the Rays, that will be a massive victory for them the way they are hitting the baseball.
9:26
And again, Aaron Judge's return is not imminent at all. We will get an update on him, unlike the José Ramirezes of the world who are supposed to return for the Guardians right after the All-Star break.
9:37
And by the way, the Guardians down to one game over 500 finally. It's getting down to where they ought to be.
9:43
Um, the Yankees are just gonna evaluate Judge at the end of July, and then we'll find out what the story is with him after that- Yeah... um, moving forward as the rest of the season.
9:52
So that's, that's pretty amazing- That's wild... uh, right now. Paul Goldschmidt does not have a hit since June 25th. He's reached base one time in those 10 games. One walk. Yeah.
10:03
Um, I got a text yesterday from Joe Sheehan. Wow. Say that again, Kelly? Say that again? He has what? He has one walk in those 10 games, not a single hit. Man. His last hit was June 25th. [laughs] Is that good?
10:18
[laughs] I'm told that's a- Seems- I'm being told that's not good... seems like a while ago in baseball. [laughs] Uh, I got a text from Joe Sheehan yesterday.
10:24
He goes, "There's still time to get on the Dylan Cease train," uh, because he knows that I- Oh, boy. Yeah... I, I made the case for Cam Schlittler the other day.
10:31
Dylan Cease against the Giants here yesterday afternoon, uh, in a game that we thought about going to, but then Gracie needed a passport, so we didn't go. Um, Dylan Cease, no-hitter into the ninth.
10:42
Heliot Ramos instantly broke that up with a liner to start the ninth, and then he, uh, Cease was removed. He actually gave him a big ovation at Oracle yesterday here in San Francisco.
10:53
But 118 pitches, 81 for strikes as he looked for the first solo no-hitter in the majors since 2024. Yeah. And he just falls shy. Yeah. When did that happen, Gil? When did, when did no-hitters stop?
11:07
I thought we were having this major, like, crisis in baseball that we had no-hitters, like, left and right and, like, a perfect game, like, once a year and everything like that. That stat jumped- Yeah...
11:15
out to me, actually. I was like, "Wow, it's actually been a, like, two years." I completely agree. I also was like, "Really? No?"
11:22
But I guess they were combined no-hitters, and that's why we were sort of taken off the- Hmm... scent of that. Okay.
11:27
Um, so Sheehan, Sheehan-- 'cause you'll, you know, it's his first s- first solo no-hitter since 2024- Right... he was going for. Um, so Sheehan immediately, uh, texted me 'cause he, he th- he likes Dylan Cease.
11:39
He thinks Dylan Cease has a shot, and Dylan Cease certainly came out and performed magnificently yesterday against the Giants. I will say this, though. Again, what I texted him back is, "I don't know, man."
11:49
You still look at the Schlittler, uh, numbers, and again, just like with Yordan Alvarez for AL MVP, the numbers are kind of unassailable even after this great performance by Cease, uh, against the Giants, who, by the way, their offense is better than most people give it credit for.
12:05
But, um, you know, again, with, with Schlittler, when we did this segment the other day after his eight-inning performance, um- Where he gave up one earned run on four hits his last outing.
12:15
He's first in ERA in the American League. He's first in expected ERA. He's first in fielding independence. He's first in xFIP. He's first in WAR. He's first in overall Ks. He's second in WHIP.
12:26
He's second in innings pitched, which again matters for the Tango formula. So Ed Schlittler, despite that performance, but as you see in the betting market, Schlittler now plus 125.
12:35
Cease has fallen to plus 190, so it is narrowing- Yep... after that outing yesterday.
12:41
After the break, Kelly, a deep dive on what I think is an investigation that needs to happen in the hot dog eating contest, and I'm not kidding. Next on- You're here because you want an edge.
12:53
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13:03
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13:10
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13:14
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
13:29
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13:38
Scan the QR code on your screen or visit justwinbetsbaby.com today and start betting smarter with Just Win Bets Baby. The name says it all. Gil Alexander in San Francisco. Kelly Bidlin back there in Las Vegas.
13:50
Kelly, um, I don't mean to get all Pablo Torre on everybody here. Yeah, you do. And act like... I, well, maybe I do. We love Pablo. Yeah. That's our buddy. Um,
14:01
but, and I don't wanna, and I also don't wanna act like I've been betting this for years and years, 'cause I haven't, and I also wanna- don't wanna act like this is the Kennedy assassination that we're in, that, uh, we're gonna do a deep dive here on.
14:13
But we all bet on the hot dog eating contest, the Nathan's Coney Island Hot Dog Eating Contest this past 4th of July, and, um, I had under 39 hot dogs and buns for Miki Sudo, the eventual, uh, women's champion.
14:28
Um, so I won my bet, so this is not also coming from a place of sour grapes, 'cause I won mine, right? So it's not a personal thing.
14:37
But I know there's a lot of people out there that had the under on 38 and a half, and remember what happened was that on screen while the broadcast happened, it was counted at 34 hot dogs and buns for Miki Sudo, and then mysteriously sometime after that, maybe even a matter of minutes, it was said that officially it was 38.75 hot dog, uh, and buns.
15:02
So all those people who had the under at 38 and a half and lower lost on their bet.
15:07
And, you know, we made a, we made a deal of it for a little bit the next morning or Monday morning, maybe even we waited till Tuesday morning.
15:16
I can't even remember anymore because we were sort of like, "Oh yeah, we even forgot to watch it, you and me." Oh, I'm sure it was Monday- Um... we talked about it.
15:22
Well, I think we did talk about it Monday morning, and then, you know, then we got the explanation, right? The official explanation. Folks tweeted as and say, "Oh yeah, well, they missed a plate.
15:30
They missed a plate, and so, you know, they had five hot dogs and buns on a plate, and that's where the discrepancy was." And we all kinda let it go.
15:38
Well, uh, two days ago, 'cause I kinda forgot to do this yesterday, but two days ago, I, I'm glad I didn't because then I researched it more yesterday.
15:46
Two days ago, I got, you know, you get notifications on your phone for things, and, um, ESPN, as it turns out, had a dedicated camera on Miki Sudo. So not the camera that was the broadcast- Right...
16:02
where they're cutting from contestant to contestant, not a wide shot. This is a camera literally, like, looking up her nose- Mm-hmm... for the entire 10 minutes.
16:11
By the way, it was disgusting to watch, but I decided I was gonna watch all 10 minutes and count for myself. And Kelly, I'm telling you right now, she ate exactly 34 hot dogs and buns. Exactly.
16:25
Sometimes the count on the screen was, like, one ahead of me, one below, but it always reconciled. Right, yeah. And at the end it was 34. I saw it with my own two eyes.
16:34
So now you're thinking to yourself, "Okay, well, yeah, Gil, great, 34, but that's the official ruling. They..." It, okay, there was no plate missed. There just wasn't.
16:43
So then you say to yourself, "Okay, well, like, what's, is there nefarious activity here?"
16:47
And of course, as sports bettors we all go, "Oh, the books are doing something," or, "The hot dog contest people are doing something." Mm-hmm. And I'm not suggesting either. I'm not suggesting either.
16:57
What I did then sort of, you know, notice, by the way, George Shea, uh, the co-founder of Major League Eating, explained the discrepancy, as I say, occur- uh, occurred because a plate was overlooked, but the error, just to, to be thorough, was caught by head official Judge Sam Barclay during the final verification process.
17:14
And even a former participant, uh, Darren Breeden, suggested that those errors stem from inexperienced counters tasked with tracking consumption dur- uh, consumption during the event.
17:24
But again, I watched it with my own two eyes, and again, not to make this out to be the Kennedy assassination, but I started doing, like, more of a deep dive on it yesterday.
17:34
And what I came across that it, was that it wasn't just Miki Sudo whose count mysteriously altered. It was also that of Nick Wehry, her husband, on the men's side. Hmm.
17:47
So immediately I was sorta like, "Oh, that's interesting. Hmm. Interesting." And by, by several? Like Miki? By, yeah. By- Okay... uh, I don't know by exactly how.
17:59
N- no other eaters finished, uh, with more th- of an adjustment than one and a half hot dogs. But those two, Miki Sudo and her husband, uh, Nick Wehry, they did. Mm-hmm.
18:11
More than one and a half, and obviously in the case of Sudo it was, it was five or four and a half, four and three-quarters, uh, to be exact. So I'm like, "That's interesting."
18:20
And I just sort of started to Google him like, "This, this-- has anything else happened before?"
18:24
And, you know, what most articles tell you is, "Oh yeah, there was a, there was a previous contest where Joey Chestnut's count, you know, uh, changed," and that's kind of, like, sort of takes you off the scent.
18:36
What is lesser, less reported is that in 2024, Nick Wehry was accused of cheating to boost his score.
18:48
So, um, again, husband of women's division champ Miki Sudo, he was accused of some sleight-of-hand trickery during the Fourth of July contest in 2024 in order to inflate his tally, uh, of eaten hot dogs, not to get him to win the competition, but to take him from the forties total- Right...
19:07
into the low fifties, which puts you among the elite. So I think there's a couple things in factoring here. It didn't change the position this year of Miki Sudo. She was gonna win it anyway.
19:18
It didn't change the position of Nick Wehry back in 2024. He wasn't going to win it anyway. It was just a, a more of a count.
19:25
And what ended up happening, and this is according to The California Post, the article then, is a offshoot, it's a toggle from The New York Post. "100% he cheated," one source said.
19:36
Uh, on the day of the competition, Wehry's score was a respectable 46.75 hot dogs when they called it out at Coney Island, good enough for a fourth-place finish, according to footage and reports.
19:45
But that figure later jumped to 51.75 on the official Major League Eating results website, allegedly giving him credit for five full dogs more than he was actually served during the competition.
19:57
And like then, now, right? They said eater scores are tabulated based on the number of empty plates stacked in front of their spot after the allotted time has concluded. Then the judges look at the debris.
20:10
They decide, oh, did he, did he or she eat a full dog, a half dog, whatever, that kind of thing. Right.
20:14
But every plate on the competition table starts out loaded with five hot dogs, so each plate left behind counts for five dogs eaten as the judges determine the participant's score.
20:24
So he had been accused of stealing plates from another competitor's stack and putting them on his own place setting to raise his score above 50, which again, consider the threshold about separating the elite from the non-elite.
20:40
Um, and again, didn't change his placement. So I think there's a couple things again.
20:44
Not only did it not change her, Miki Sudo, or Nick Wehry's placement, Nick Wehry's in 2024, Miki Sudo's this year, nor Nick Wehry's this year,
20:53
but we as bettors are not betting dimes or five dimes on this kind of stuff, right? Mm-hmm. It's all small, limited bets, only the, you know, people with multiple outs. I bet it at two shops, right?
21:04
And the people who bet 'em at multiple outs, who are more serious bettors, they're already moving on to the next bet, right? If it's 250 here, 250 there.
21:12
So there's a couple factors that allow for us to just kinda move on. "Oh, that's the explanation. I guess I didn't lose that much money." Again, I won, but, uh, for those who lost, "I guess I didn't lose that much money.
21:24
Oh, well." Right? Yeah, yeah. "I guess it's 'cause there, there was a missing plate." So by the way, um- How often do we- One source suggested- How often do we talk about- Yeah, go ahead. I'm sorry...
21:32
the bettor, the $20 bettor who just kind of expects to lose anyways, and these are the vi-- these are the events that we're talking about, right?
21:39
Like, they just wanna have some action down on an event like this to enjoy it, and yeah, it, they're not gonna think twice about that when that 20 bucks is gone later. So again, I'm not accusing sportsbooks.
21:49
I'm not accusing Major League Eating. I'm not inclu- I'm not accusing George O. Shea.
21:54
I am presenting to you some facts that were, you know, or some allegations that were made in 2024, and interestingly, only Sudo and Wehry's numbers were changed this year. Couple more things on that.
22:04
Uh, one source suggested in 2024, this according to the article from Anita, uh, Bolle and Chris Nicci back in 2024.
22:12
One source suggested that Wehry asked for a recount after the initial judges' tallying took place, concerned his true total wouldn't cut the mustard in a highly competitive field.
22:21
Uh, the source claimed, quote, "I can only assume he demanded a recount after stealing the plate."
22:27
A lengthy post on an internet forum devoted to eating competitions included videos of that year's contest, along with time codes that purport to show him acting suspiciously, including moving plates around on the table.
22:41
Uh, and in fact, in videos viewed by that publication, Wehry can be seen hovering around the stage well after the competition was over, in that case appearing to pick up and move items on the table, including at least one empty plate, which he twirls in his hand end over end.
22:55
MLE, Major League Eating, they investigated. They cons- carefully considered the complaint after reviewing the video.
23:02
Um, but then, you know, they said, "It's our policy not to overturn judges' decisions after the final results have been recorded." So again, is this the Kennedy assassination? It is not.
23:13
Am I coming from a place of losing a bet and I'm bitter? It is not. It's simply, for me, Kelly, it's, it's, and not to get too corny about this, but we bet on stuff. Mm-hmm.
23:22
And we live in a world now where, you know, AI, uh, Wall Street interests, politics, they all call into question, you know, all truths.
23:34
And sports betting, sort of despite justifiable claims about the shadiness of books or athletes now trying to exploit the, uh, the widespread availability of legalized betting, it's still one of the last honest businesses in the sense that, you know, generally with exception, but generally what you see is what you get, right?
23:54
Uh, you place a bet, and then the meritocracy of the arena determines your outcome. And for those of us who bet on these things, we'd like to see that preserved. So I'm just presenting the facts.
24:06
It looks really shady, dude. It just does, and I'm sorry that it disappeared. I don't want it to disappear. Someone should look closer into this. Coming back, Zach Cohen on tennis. Work.
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25:09
We get tweets at Beating The Book, always appreciate, uh, y'all are the best listeners ever in anything, ever. Uh, this is from, let's see, uh, MoneygunGuzz, who did so well in Circa Millions this past year.
25:20
Uh, "Morning Gil and Kelly, on my way to Gillette Stadium as we speak- Let's go... to go see France and Morocco." He says, "I'm pounding the over two and a half plus 109. Best of luck, friends."
25:30
Uh, Xavier82, have a great time at that, at that match, by the way. Xavier82, "Good morning, gents. Good luck to all your bets, except I tailed Zach on Muchova versus Coco this morning. I have Coco versus Muchova.
25:41
Zach and I are oppo. He got minus 108 at Novig. Have a wonderful show." Thank you so much. By the way, Coco and Muchova on serve in the third, 4-3 Muchova, but 40-love Goff.
25:53
So it looks like it could be 4-4 here in a blink, and it will come down to the very end.
25:58
Uh, this is from, oh, regarding our, uh, segment that we just did on the hot dog eating contest, John Balduzzi, "Who has the time to worry about moving plates and cheating while they're trying to stuff 40-plus hot dogs into their noggin?
26:11
It seems exhausting." Um, yeah, well, didn't happen during. Um, believe some allegations were that it happened after. It do- yeah, you do it after. Kelly- Right. Kelly, Kelly has an interesting note about this.
26:23
Kelly, wanna repeat what you just talked about off air?
26:25
Yeah, this is, uh, this is a, of course, I just took the article down, a great article by USA Today on all of this, and this was kinda talking about, um, her husband getting onto that, Weary's, uh, count, and this was George Esper, who was talking about eating right next to Weary during this competition.
26:44
Uh, Esper, who's finished runner-up in the contest four times, top five 10 times, um, he, quote, "I was pacing myself with Nick the entire contest," Esper told USA Today Sports by text message, "so I'm pretty sure of his number.
26:57
I made sure to be a half dog ahead of him at the last second. I guess I didn't ca- account for unforeseen circumstances," end quote.
27:05
Esper speculated Weary's adjusted total and Sudo's adjusted total resulted from, quote, "a double plate," when two serving plates get stuck together.
27:15
Five hot dogs each, are on each plate, and empty plates are used in calculating.
27:19
So the, as you go on in this article, you will read apparently there has been accusations in the past that you obviously would think about these plast- you know, paper plates, right? They can get stuck together.
27:29
We can all picture that, right? Now, what, what they're saying is usually it's pretty easy to d- to, to get rid of one of those because they're stuck together.
27:38
One of them on top's gonna be dirty as hell from hot dogs, right, and the other one, you just pull it apart, it's gonna be clean.
27:43
So I guess the, the move is that you quickly get to the plates ahead of time and make sure to mess up the pl- both plates so the second place can, plate can be counted, or the other plate can be counted.
27:56
So I just- How interesting. Yeah, it's a f- How interesting...
27:58
it's a fascinating article, and look, Weary's adjusted score moved him from sixth place, which receives zero prize money, to fourth place, which receives $1,500. Right.
28:10
So again- And Esper was one of the guys that finished tied for fifth, a spot behind him...
28:15
a- again, the reason that I think this goes away is because we're not talking about the difference between not winning a championship and winning, right? In the case of Miki Sudo, she was gonna win anyway. Yep.
28:26
In the case of, of Weary, he wasn't going to win anyway, but it does affect your standing, and it does affect our bets. And I'm just saying, again, I watched all 10 minutes of the dedicated camera on Sudo.
28:42
I am telling you, it was 34, not a hot dog or bent- or bun more than that. It was precisely 34.
28:49
So they have, they have big problems on their hand, and it's just something to know, uh, as we bet on this stuff because I think the evidence is right in front of everybody, and nobody wants to say the truth here. Yeah.
29:01
Uh, The Kid- It, it, it's j- it's another one of those things, Gilbert. It's like, just to add onto it, you're, I'm, I mean, I'm with you, A, here. I'm with you, and I, it, will anything be done about it? I don't know.
29:13
Uh, 'cause I don't know, I don't know if enough people care enough of about one event that we love every Fourth of July, most Americans love to check out every Fourth of July, but then we forget about it immediately and move on with the other 364- Well-...
29:26
days out of the year. Like, I don't, I don't know. How about this, Kelly? You know? How about this, Kelly?
29:30
How about this: all these r- all these benevolent, right, I'm saying in quotes, all these supposedly benevolent sportsbooks who I'm not accusing of doing anything nefarious here. Mm-hmm.
29:39
But all of these benevolent sportsbooks who are so anxious, right, to give refunds for complete marketing purposes.
29:47
They act like they're benevolent, but, you know, "Oh, uh, this player that you had a prop on got hurt five minutes in. Everybody gets refunded. We're so wonderful."
29:56
How about those sportsbooks look at something like this and actually give refunds to people who supposedly lost on, who, who not supposedly, but did lose on this? Sure.
30:04
If you really wanna do your, your, like, benevolent stuff, how about doing it for this, for the people who lost on something that is so clearly shady? Uh, The Kid, "Chris was taking some big numbers. Enjoyed the segment.
30:15
Had Weary under 39 for a dime." He did have a dime. I can see, uh, where he had the dime, too. Uh, game recognize game, The Kid. Uh, T ShellDoll, "Sounds like we got Hot Dog Gate.
30:25
I can't wait for the ANG episode after you review the moon landing footage." [laughs] Gordon Dye, "This is starting to feel like the election in the year 2000 looking at chads or chunks in this case."
30:34
Tony Tags, "Gil watching the hot dog contest replay and taking notes like it's the All 22. That is dedication to the craft." Hey, man. I just wanted to see it for myself. You can count it with your own eyes, 34.
30:48
Zach Cohen joins us now, as promised, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter at bettingonx. Uh, he of course part of the glue that holds this whole operation together.
30:57
He's also the host of Hardwood Handicappers, the daily, or I should say Monday through Friday, Friday anyway, basketball podcast. Good morning, Zach. Morning. How you guys doing? Doing very well.
31:08
So you and me, we're oppo on both of these today? Yeah, looks like it. I mean, this match is really coming down to the end of it right now, Muchova and Goff, uh, it's 4-4, 40 all, so unless I'm behind.
31:19
But yeah, a crazy match so far. And on the second match that has not yet started, I do like Marta Kostyuk, but I took her at minus 128. As it gets closer to minus 150, I hate to say it, it might not be a play anymore.
31:32
Yeah, that was the case with the Taylor Fritz play for me yesterday. It's, uh, Taylor Fritz got crushed, but when I betted it was minus 108, by the time we were talking about it on the show, it was minus 135.
31:41
I'm like, "You can't bet this higher than minus 125." Like, it's a no bet.
31:45
So I hope people are price sensitive to that kind of thing, 'cause, uh, I'm with you, uh, exactly what you're talking about on Kostyuk with the price now being too out of bounds on that.
31:54
Can, can we just talk a little bit about what you talked about off air? Because, so I had a really good, really good grass season up until Wimbledon, and then my Wimbledon has not been good. Yours, not as...
32:06
I, I, you'll correct me if I'm wrong, not as good of a grass season before Wimbledon, but you have kind of crushed Wimbledon, I think. And then yesterday you had the audacity to have a lo- [laughs] you have a losing day.
32:18
The abso- the absolute chutzpah of having a losing day, and you said you were taking some incoming for that? People are ridiculous, man.
32:24
[laughs] Yeah, so I'm, I mean, depending on the results of this match, as of right now I'm plus five units, uh, in Wimbledon so far. Okay.
32:32
And I've been doing these videos every day on our YouTube channel, and, like, you never hear anything when you win, but yesterday I went 0 and 2, like you just said.
32:39
I had the audacity to have a really bad day, and people are commenting on the new video for today like, "Why would we ever listen to you? You got that one match wrong."
32:45
And I'm like, "Well, I've made more than one pick in 2026." It's amazing. It's, [laughs] it's amazing. [laughs] We make hundreds of picks.
32:52
If people don't think there's gonna be stretches like this, uh, you haven't done this long enough or you just, you have an agenda. Um, so tomorrow the men's semis. Couple questions.
33:04
One, it's Zverev against Ferre on the one hand, and then of course the one that we all are waiting for, Sinner versus Djokovic.
33:10
Um, did we ever even mention Arthur Ferre on the podcast, the Beating the Book preview podcast? Did that name even come up? You know what? It didn't, and I don't feel bad about it. Anybody that had- I don't either...
33:23
Arthur Ferre in the [laughs] semifinals, I don't even know what they were on. [laughs] It's incredible. Um, do you have bets yet on either of those two matches tomorrow? So I have leans.
33:35
I, I, I think that Sinner is going to cover against Djokovic. I, I think that whether it's minus four and a half or minus five and a half games, I'd be comfortable taking it.
33:43
I just kind of go back to you look at what they did in Melbourne, and Djokovic was pretty much coming off of five days of rest in that match, had, uh, you know, a pretty much full week off to kind of rest up and throw his entire body into that one, and it took Sinner going 2 of 18 on break point opportunities- Yes...
34:00
for Djokovic to even win that thing in five sets. So you look at this one, way less rest for Djokovic, and I just kind of think that that's going to do him in.
34:08
I feel like the Auger-Aliassime match was unbelievable, like peak, peak Djokovic, like, theater, but he needed to end that match in four or fewer sets, and probably needed to end the Rinderknech and Safiullin matches in three or fewer.
34:21
I just feel like he needed to have every bit of himself for this match.
34:26
Uh, it's so funny, you and I we're talking off air 'cause you have, you have Muchova, I have Goff, and you said, "Man, Coco's so difficult to put away." I say the same thing about Muchova.
34:34
Muchova's impossible to put away. Uh, Coco had two break points here, couldn't get the break. Uh, Muchova now, uh, add in at 4-4 here in the, uh, in the final set in what has just been a banger of a...
34:48
or at least a banger of a third set. Not really great competitive sets one and two. On the other side, Zach kind enough to join us for our second one, NBA Summer League begins tonight in Las Vegas. That's cool.
34:59
Um, a special numbers game investigation reveals, and you can tell by Kelly getting pumped, we're all kind of pumped about this. I'll be there. This is a great Summer League.
35:07
Um, Zach's got plays both tonight and futures. We will get to those next on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
35:15
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
35:33
It is a Numbers Game, un partido de numeros. Gil Alexander in San Francisco, Kelly Bidlin back in the VSiN studios there in Las Vegas, downtown Las Vegas, at Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas.
35:46
A crack coming up a little later on the show. Looking forward to that. Uh, Zach Cohen still with us here on this Thursday morning.
35:54
Uh, as I mentioned before the break, a special numbers game investigation reveals that NBA Summer League Vegas begins tonight. So pumped. Or maybe today even. Mm-hmm. I think it's tonight. This afternoon.
36:05
But, uh, it- this afternoon Mm-hmm... but everybody is playing at least for a game or two, maybe even more, in terms of, uh, the big draft picks in the NBA draft.
36:14
Zach joins us now, again courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. Um, Kelly, feel free to jump in on this, 'cause I know we're all kind of pumped about this. I'm kinda jealous that I'm not there for Summer League.
36:24
Zach, give us the broad view before you get in any, uh, specifics, the broad view of this Summer League. Am I correct when I said that pretty much everybody is participating in this?
36:34
Yeah, I, I think all the top picks are going to be playing, and I think unlike past Summer Leagues, like, we're talking about a pretty much generational draft.
36:40
And we actually just got a glimpse at some of these players in the prior Summer Leagues, whether that was in Salt Lake City or California, and all of them played really, really well. Jaren Peterson was great.
36:52
Uh, Cameron Boozer was great. We saw some really good stuff out of Darius Acuff after a, you know, a, a shaky first game. So I don't know.
36:58
The expectations are really high, and I feel like there is some buzz surrounding this event.
37:03
There is some buzz because you have, in the case of teams like the Jazz, it's Darren Peterson, Ace Bailey, of course, big draft pick from last year. They're both playing.
37:13
The Grizzlies have not only Cam Boozer but Cedric Coward playing. Uh, the Wizards have not only DeBonta, but they have Trey Johnson from last year. They got Will Riley in there.
37:23
Uh, the Dubs, the Warriors have not only Lendeborg, but they have Will Richard in there. So I mean, there's teams with, like, multiple studs playing in this tournament.
37:32
Now, you have landed on three different teams to win Summer League. Please, the floor is yours. Tell us who.
37:39
Yeah, so the biggest pull of all this, which isn't a big play, it's like a one unit bet, is Brooklyn Nets to win at 14 to 1.
37:46
I feel like there are a lot of teams with, like, top-end talent in this, but I would not exclude the Nets.
37:51
I feel like Jaheem Goodman, the sophomore who played last year and did some really good things for the Nets, is going to be one of the best players in the Summer League setting this year.
38:00
You have Mikal Brown, their first round pick, and then all of those guys that they drafted last year, Ben Saraf, Danny Wolf, Drake Powell. Yeah.
38:07
I feel like this team has more of these, you know, draft picks than anybody else does. And then they also have, like, Tyler Bilodeau, the UCLA player, is a second round pick from this year.
38:17
I don't think as many teams have, like, six players that they actually drafted in the last two drafts. Yeah. Nice. We should mention the j- the Jazz... I'm sorry, Kelly.
38:26
We should mention the Jazz are the short shot at eight to one, the Grizzlies nine to one, the Kings 10 to one, and then the Nets at 12 to one. I'm sorry, Kelly. Go ahead.
38:33
Yeah, I was gonna say it, it's abs- it's absurd, Zach.
38:34
I, I don't, I actually don't know that we've, like, the, there can't be many Nets summer, like, Summer League team rosters like the Nets have this year that we've seen in the past.
38:46
'Cause, you know, in case anybody forgot about the exciting 2025 NBA draft, uh, not quite as exciting as this year, yeah, they, they only used, uh, five first round draft picks on players, uh, and none of them really blew up into anything.
38:59
Right. You don't exactly remember the Brooklyn Nets' amazing season from last year.
39:02
So yeah, when we're going through rosters, and shout out to Jonathan Vontobel, who puts a lot of hard work into putting these together, uh, every summer.
39:09
That was one of the first ones that jumped out to me as well, Zach. A- and I will, I think the stars, yeah, we expect, okay, one, two games. I don't know if you're betting futures you should plan on much more than that.
39:23
But it will be team by team dependent. With some of the i, uh, guys from years past, right? I mean, let's use the Nets in this as an example. How lo- how much do you expect those guys to go? Well, yeah. You just said it.
39:37
Like, with the top players, it's gonna be a few games, and I do think that with a player like Goodman, a player like Cedric Coward on the Grizzlies, like, I don't expect to see them- Mm-hmm...
39:45
very much, so you do have to factor that in. That's another reason I like Brooklyn, though, because not only do they have Goodman, like, they have seven guys- Right... that can play.
39:52
So if you do lose one or two of them, you're still fine in terms of overall talent. So that really did go into the handicapping.
39:59
Like, there are better rosters, and there are better teams than the ones that I picked, but I tried to avoid the teams that drafted early in this year's draft. Mm-hmm. You had me at Ben Saraf and Danny Wolf.
40:11
You needn't have said anything else- [laughs]... for obvious reasons. All right. Sorry, Gil. What other two teams did you bet here? Jump on board. I think B- B- Zach and I are both on the Brooklyn Nets.
40:18
[laughs] Let's go mighty Brooklyn. I also- What else did you play?... took the Atlanta Hawks. That's one of the ones, like, a little bit closer to the top, not really at the bottom of a longer shot or anything.
40:27
But I just think that Kingston Flemings is the right type of player to have in this. Like, you're talking about the number eight pick, so I don't think you're going to be rushing to get him off the court.
40:36
Somebody that actually cares about winning a- and plays on both ends of the floor, like a true table-setting point guard, too.
40:42
I think that that's something you need to put a premium on in Summer League, where these games are, like, borderline exhibition games that can be really chaotic.
40:49
You wanna have a really good point guard that can put guys in the right spots, run effective pick and rolls. I think they have that in Flemings.
40:56
They also have a really good front line with Zuby Ejindu, uh, Eisa Newell, and Henry Visser, the, the guy that fell to the second round from UNC in this draft.
41:06
I think that if you have that type of size, that type of guard play, you're gonna be dangerous. And that also goes into my pick for the Mavericks, who were way down at 60 to 1.
41:16
I really like Ryan Nembhard a- as a player that can do something in this setting. Uh, we saw him play, like, effective basketball as an on-ball creator at the NBA last year.
41:25
So I would expect him to be able to kinda pick apart a Summer League defense. Then you have Marez Johnson Jr., like the motor that Dusty May decided to build everything around, you know, out of Michigan.
41:35
And Sergio De Laria came over after winning the ACB title with Valencia. There was some skepticism about whether or not he would be playing here, the number 25 pick in last year's draft. He's there. He's practicing.
41:48
So it seems like they're going to have one of the better backcourts when you talk about Nembhard, Springer. Uh, no, Nembhard, De Laria, and Jayden Springer. Spoiled a little bit.
41:57
The, uh, three and D player that has really kinda flamed out the pros, uh, draft pick from three years ago. But I think he could look really good in Vegas. Nets, Hawks, Mavericks.
42:09
For an event, uh, that we have all attended living in Vegas for a long time and, you know, have, have vivid memories of, oh, Jaylen Brunson playing for the Mavs. Like, why? Well, he looks great out here.
42:19
Why don't, why doesn't anybody give him a chance? 'Cause he's so small, that kinda thing. Uh, f- to all the way to Victor Wembanyama, right? It was just, uh, for, for the one game I believe he played.
42:28
Um, Kelly, before we move on, I know you're gonna talk about this a little later. Would you match on the Nets? Is that what you were saying? Yeah, we match on the Nets. Uh, yeah, I'll save... I, I d- I bet too.
42:37
I'll save the r- the other one for the next segment. Uh, Zach did, Zach only brought it up lightly, so he kinda hates it, Gil. That's what I'm gonna go with. Although I wa- Oh, okay...
42:47
I wanna bring up Zach's game bets because I haven't really looked, I hadn't really looked at game, game sprint numbers yet, Zach, and I think Jazz only laying one and a half in this game tonight is a little bit of a surprise to me.
42:59
I think there is, I think I'm gonna be joining you on that one. Eh, this is I, I mean, look, you don't know how long you're gonna get these guys for, how many games.
43:07
Zach did a great job of laying that out, giving that warning for everybody that's going in to bet futures.
43:12
Game by game, though, you a little bit know what- like, you can know a little bit better what to expect, especially the first game tonight.
43:18
Uh, you're gonna have DiBanza, uh, making his dib- uh, debut and playing with the Wizards.
43:22
But yeah, like you rolled through, man, Ace Bailey, Dar- Darren Peterson, Cody Williams, you would expect all those guys to go tonight and get a lot of looks. Yeah, I thought that was a light number.
43:32
So I think I will be joining you on lay- laying the point and a half with the Jazz tonight. You got a few other game bets that you've made early here, right?
43:41
Yeah, I mean, with the Jazz, I'll just throw out, like, they also have, like, a week of quote, unquote, "continuity." That too, yes. Like, they played the Salt Lake City Summer League.
43:48
So I feel like they're not going to be playing together for the first time the way that the Wizards are. So I hate to go against Gil's Wizards i- in the Summer League setting. I'm sure that kills him. But I, I do- Wow...
43:57
think this is the right side for tonight. And another one that I really liked was the Timberwolves on the money line against the Pelicans.
44:04
That's gotten up to, like, minus 150 or so, but I kinda think I'd still play it at that number.
44:09
I just feel like New Orleans is a team that you would expect to have a really good roster at Summer League because they've made so many first-round picks over the last couple years.
44:16
But they don't have Jaren Queen or Jeremiah Fears. So the only player that's been drafted in the first round in the last two years for either team is Yoan Barrenjay.
44:25
And I actually think this is going to be a really fun setting to watch him play- Ooh... because he is a really electric rim protector, and he gets 10 fouls.
44:33
So this is, you know, a unique setting where he's going to be able to be ultra aggressive as a shot blocker, and I think he's gonna put a lid on the rim.
44:41
And I, I do think that the overall shot-making is going to be lacking in this game. But I would give the slight edge to Minnesota. You're also on the Mavs versus the Dubs tonight?
44:52
Yeah, so this is just going back to kinda my, like, pre, you know, tournament handicap. I really like Dallas. I think they're being a little undervalued here.
44:59
Five and a half was the number that I got at Betrivers, and it was only minus 117. I think you might have to take four and a half now. But I think Moraz Johnson Jr.
45:07
and Jaksa Lundborg is going to be a really fun battle inside. But something tells me Moraz Johnson Jr. won a lot of those battles in college in order for Dusty May to prioritize bringing him to the Mavericks.
45:18
So I'm looking forward to see how that plays out.
45:21
But I do give the edge in the back court to the Mavericks, who I, I really think you kinda look at everybody and all these rosters, they might have the best back court in Summer League.
45:30
Zach, Muhova, Coco, third set tiebreaker, first to 10 by two. [laughs] I'm just gonna tell you right now, this clearly means you're gonna win, 'cause I don't remember the last tiebreaker I've won in this damn tournament.
45:43
So good luck to you. [laughs] Reverse jinx off each other. I don't feel good about it either, though. So yeah- Yeah... reverse jinx off. [laughs] It is a reverse jinx off between Muhova and Goff.
45:52
Winner into the Wimbledon final against the winner of Kostiak and Noskova, uh, which will follow this. Thank you, Zach. Appreciate it, man. Thank you. Zach Cohen, everybody.
46:03
Betting on X, on Twitter, all of his stuff on the website at vsin.com. Coming back with some World Cup on The Numbers Game right here at VSIN, the sports betting network.
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