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Jul 9, 2026
A Numbers Game | July 9, 2026 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | July 9, 2026 | Hour 2
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Transcript
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0:29
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. So, I'm one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:40
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the e-sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, of course, Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander in San Francisco this week once again.
0:52
Kelly Bidlin back in Las Vegas at the mothership. Um, I don't wanna read too many, uh, too many more tweets here right now 'cause we have a lot to talk about, but, uh- Oh boy...
1:02
did get, um, a tweet from, this is- I d- I didn't get it from Eat Feats, but, uh, who pointed it out to me? T Lynch Sports, uh, pointed me to this, uh, tweet where basically... Oh, now I don't know.
1:16
Now I don't even know if it's there anymore. Um, but essentially it's a, a quoting Miki Sudo, I haven't verified it, as saying, "Yeah. Hey, I don't know how I got five more.
1:26
I mean, I guess there's mistakes of two more, but I don't know about five more hot dogs." So I, I like your explanation, Kelly, the double-plated thing. Oh, I- It's pretty interesting...
1:35
that USA Today article I sent you, actually they did a f- I thought they did a great job breaking this all d- all those quotes from Miki are in there. Yeah, she was asked about it.
1:43
Um, I mean, what, what else is she gonna say? I don't know. I was also trying to judge- Exactly... I was trying to judge her reaction afterward, too. I, like,
1:51
t- a- and then I realized it was a fool's errand to try to judge anybody's reaction after having to just stuff 30-something hot dogs into, into their face, right?
1:59
Like, sh- [laughs] like I couldn't tell if she looked upset, just exhausted from eating that much, and then it got flipped to 39. She was all happy. Yeah.
2:08
Let me emphasize once again, in watching those 10 minutes with a camera, dedicated camera basically pointed right up her nose, it is truly disgusting. I have no idea how people watch this event.
2:21
It is just absolutely vile. It's incredible. It's the grossest thing ever. A- a- and it really is. It's, it's so American, and it's so, like- Oh... i- it's so awesome and disgusting, Gil, that this thing has...
2:32
Like, just think of where it's come from. In 25 years or whatever it's been, I mean, it's the, I, I mean, the, the rise in, it, we're, we're beyond, like, the rise in popularity of the hot dog eating contest.
2:45
It's l- it's just a part of the 4th of July now. No doubt about it. No doubt about it. By the way, Muchova up a mini break in the tiebreaker up to 10, because of course she is. Um, it's up to 10.
2:58
6-4 right now in favor of Karolina Muchova.
3:01
Um, before we get back to the Summer League, because I think I'm as excited as you guys are, but you guys might be a little more excited, but I'm pretty pumped 'cause there's ways you can bet this.
3:10
Real quick, because we're gonna talk to Paul Carr later about, uh, the World Cup and all four quarterfinals.
3:15
We are now, of course, parked right before these quarterfinal games, France-Morocco, 4:00 PM Eastern, 1:00 PM Pacific from Foxborough today.
3:25
Um, but let's just take a look at the Golden Boot standings, Kelly, because now, I mean, we've said this all along, but it really now is pretty evident. This is going to come down to which side lasts the longest.
3:37
Now, the quirk here is the third place game counts- Yeah... towards the Golden Boot. So Lionel Messi of Argentina with eight goals leads the Golden Boot competition heading into the quarterfinals.
3:51
Kylian Mbappé of France, Erling Haaland of Norway each have seven. Harry Kane of England has six. Now, the biggest part of the handicap, again, is can you at least get them past this round? Right. That's the main thing.
4:08
Can you at least get them past this round?
4:11
Um, so if you feel like any of those sides, Argentina, France, Norway, England, is gonna lose, obviously that's a non-bet, but you're really betting on sides just as much as you are the player itself.
4:24
I think based on the numbers, 'cause Messi is plus 120 with the one-goal advantage. Mbappé's at plus 140. That's largely because France is the favorite to win this tournament.
4:33
But isn't Erling Haaland at seven to one the play? Uh, so- If you think they're getting by England... I, I, I mean, depends how you feel about Norway, right?
4:40
Uh, but man, uh, the way we were discussing this game yesterday, and I didn't know that I ha- I had to hand my Viking helmet off to Gil Alexander all of a sudden 'cause he had, he's taken over the love of how far this team can go.
4:53
Danny and I were talking about this yesterday when we were looking at these odds, Gil. Like, for you, this has gotta be a play, right? Like seven to one? Yes. I mean, if you think- Absolutely...
5:00
they're getting past, and I might be joining you 'cause I did make some Nor- Norway bets for that match.
5:04
But yeah, keep in mind that the third place game counts, so even if you're not talking about them getting all the way to the final or winning the thing, you still got n- you got that out of falling back.
5:15
So as long, if you like them this week, and, and look, I, I guess, I, I think I could say the same thing about Harry Kane too, uh, over on the England side.
5:25
Like, if you love England this week and you think they smoke Norway, I, I, I think eight to one on Ka- Harry Kane's not bad either.
5:31
Yeah, you're two goals back, uh, but you'll have a ch- uh, yeah, I mean, you'll have the same chance as Haaland to get us that far into that third place game at least. He's the guy who takes penalty kicks.
5:42
I think you could make a case for that as well, but I think Erling Haaland would go up at seven to one. Yeah, I mean, I, I might be joining you on it. I, I, but I think James would see- So-... bet it pre-tournament...
5:52
totally a play. The fact that he's still seven to one is amazing. Mm-hmm. Still seven to one. Um, so that's a play for sure. Just gotta find it where I am. [laughs] That's the problem, um, here in Cali.
6:04
You gotta find a, uh, an offshore or a, uh, a PPH or a, uh, prediction market to play that in right now. I sh- I'm, I'm sure that won't be difficult though, uh, with the prediction markets. So- Yeah, they should win...
6:16
let's go, let's, let's go back to the Summer League for a second. You mentioned that you match on Brooklyn to win the Summer League for all the reasons stated. What else did you bet to win Vegas Summer League?
6:28
Yeah, the other one that I bet actually is the Memphis Grizzlies, and yeah, it w- absolutely compare, uh, or, or fair points from Zack about what you're going to see out of this Memphis team.
6:38
We have seen them in action already in the early portions of the pre-Vegas Summer League, uh, stuff going on. No, I don't expect Cameron Boozer to play throughout this entire tournament. I don't expect, um...
6:50
So, y- Cedric Coward especially.
6:52
Cedric Coward might be one of the oddest names on an- on any Summer League roster just because of how I thought he had a very, lot of, uh, y- you know, a lot of basketball people thought he had a very good rookie season.
7:03
You don't often see those guys, uh, come back to the Summer League that following year.
7:07
So I, I think both of those guys I'm not expecting to see a ton of, Gil, but you get, if you can get a game or two out of them, they're another one of these rosters, and this is, this is something I like to do when I'm looking at Summer League.
7:19
It's kinda, it's kinda the mix, right? The mix of the high-end rookie talent.
7:24
Y- Zach talked about it a bit, uh, with the Nets and, uh, uh, Michael Johnson with the, the, the drop-off of, okay, maybe you're not one of the superstar rookies. You're gonna get an extra game or two out of those guys.
7:37
I like to see, I like to look at groups like that, and then you like to see some of the teams that are bringing back vet- you know, veterans of any kind.
7:46
I don't care if they played for a year or two, y- you know, or more. Having any NBA-level experience in organized basketball, which I thought was a great point by Zach too, right?
7:56
Coming back into an environment like this that you are f- much more familiar with.
8:00
You're more familiar, well, m- uh, with, with likely the coaching staff even though it is a different coaching staff than what the NBA team is. So all assistant coaches that you've been working with for a year plus.
8:11
So I think I like to look for some of those guys where there is some of the, some of the more depth to the roster that have, with guys that have been there, and Memphis is one of those teams that has some other guys that have been around, uh, on their, on their team this past season.
8:25
So Prosper he mentioned. You know, you might remember Wa- Walter Clayton Jr., right, from the University of Florida- Sure... getting drafted just last year.
8:33
He's a guy that I would expect once kinda Cameron Boozer and Cedric Coward go away, I think he's a guy that's gonna start getting a lot of play. Taylor Hendricks, uh, as well from a coup- a few years ago.
8:44
Remember him out of UCF. He's one of, he's one of these guys where kinda last chance you situation.
8:51
When you see the third, the third-year rookie who was a lottery pick or even just a first-round pick, that third-year guy who's coming back to Summer League again, it's backs up against a wall.
9:03
Time to do something to get your, uh, career, uh, out of the mud before you start probably thinking about going elsewhere, uh, around the world to play. So they, they've got some of these guys that have some experience.
9:13
I, I gravitated toward, towards that number. I don't think, this i- this is the first time though, Gil, i- in a few years where I didn't think any of these numbers were jumping out to me as extreme value.
9:26
I did the wh- I did the whole game of let me go through every roster and where do I, what do I think the teams, which teams do I think are gonna be at the top of the board, and the four I wrote down were Jazz, Grizzlies, Kings, and Nets.
9:37
So I don't re- [laughs] I think the rightful favorites are at the top. Um, I don't really love some of the mid-range teams like Warriors, Bulls, Spurs, Lakers, Hornets. Next, I, I would actually drop down.
9:50
The Hawks did jump out to me. I know Zack mentioned them, betting them. The Hawks jumped out to me, and then I think he makes good points on Dallas.
9:57
If I wasn't looking at one, one of these teams at the top, I think I would be looking much further down the board. Uh, Coco Goff with a mat- did she just squa- did she squander the match point?
10:09
I can't, I don't have a TV in front of me. Or did she win? I know it was 9-8. She won? No. No, she squandered it. Nine a piece. She squandered it, 9-9. Oh, you ve- Yeah, 9-9.
10:20
[sighs] And, and then Gil, just to wrap this up, the, I, I, I really think, I, I think Zack found the bet tonight though.
10:27
I hadn't gone over these games for today yet, and I don't really, I, I kinda, you know, we, we talk about the, the court siding, right? The Summer League's been a great experience for that- Yeah... in years past.
10:36
Sure has been. I was kinda just gonna wait till I got out there. I think I'm laying a, I'm laying a point and a half with the Jazz here, uh, tonight.
10:42
I think having all those guys going up against this Wizards team that has not played yet, and the Ja- uh, Jazz have a couple games underneath their belt here this summer. I like that.
10:51
I'm gonna lay a point and a half with them tonight. I actually think that's gonna be as big a bet for me tonight as these futures combined. What about Summer League MVP 'cause you can bet this as well.
10:59
Darren Peterson at 10 to 1. Darren Peterson of the Jazz coming off some great performances here prior to the Vegas version of Summer League. Uh, Cedric Coward of the Grizzlies 10 to 1. Ace Bailey of the Jazz 10 to 1.
11:10
Cam Boozer of the Grizzlies 15 to 1. Then it's Dibansa, the number one pick in the draft, 15 to 1 of the Wiz. Will Richard of the Warriors, Trey Johnson of the Wizards at 20 to 1, as is Darius Acuff Jr.
11:21
of the Kings at 20 to 1. Everybody else longer. Any play here? No. Will be no bet for me is never a bet for me. This is usually, thi- this i- this is tough.
11:30
The history of this goes y- you've seen some star names win this. You've seen some nobodies. It was, it was Kyle Filipowski last year [laughs] uh, who, who wa- who won this for MVP.
11:42
I don't know that anybody remembers that. So d- you know, we talk about these guys leaving, leaving the tournament early, only playing a game or two.
11:49
It would be hard for me to go and bet a Peterson, a- any of those names at the top, Peterson, Coward, Bailey, Boozer, Dibansa.
11:55
I, I don't think we're gonna see them play enough to, to, to win this award, so there's probably some value further down. I just, you just don't know.
12:02
You don't know how m- who's gonna be the focus of some offenses and who's gonna get the m- the most minutes. And now Karolína Muchová squanders a match point. Oh, my God. Man. What a match. Drama.
12:14
10-10-10 in the third set breaker. Coming back on a Numbers Game at Visa, the eSports betting network You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners.
12:26
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13:17
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13:34
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14:11
And Kelly Carolina Muchova beats Coco Gauff 12-10 in the third set breaker. Yet another tiebreaker- God... goes by the wayside. Uh, Tim Lawson texting me. Brutal.
14:25
He said, "All Coco had to do on her match point was put it over the net, and she got cute, played it short, and missed the net. Muchova was way out of position." Mm. Fun. Mm. Yeah. Yeah.
14:39
Muchova, man, keeps getting it done. Oh, God. So there's that, um, [laughs] still to come.
14:47
Well, well, well, take- You, you just have to- Well, at least, you know, at least this, um- You, you know how numb you get to these? This one, it wasn't a numb one. This one leaves a mark. Oh, man.
14:54
That's, that's not good. Yeah. That's not good. Yeah. Well, at least Zach's YouTube commenters, take that. That's right, and I did text Zach. I was like, "Mazel tov, Zach. Good on you, man." Um, so good on, good on Zach.
15:06
By the way, uh, Paul Carr still to come 'cause we gotta get his thoughts on all of these, uh, World Cup matches, all the quarterfinal matches, including today's France-Morocco match, which again is 4:00 PM Eastern, 1:00 PM Pacific.
15:18
Let's do some, uh, NFC divisions, 'cause didn't we talk AFC divisions earlier this week? We sure did. I believe... Yeah. So let's talk some NFC divisions, beginning with the NFC East.
15:29
Until last year, hadn't had a back-to-back winner in over two decades. It was always a different winner, and then finally the Eagles, uh, go back-to-back.
15:39
Um, right now, National Football Conference, Eastern Division, the Eagles at 10-and-a-half wins are the division favorite or the short shot at plus 115.
15:47
Cowboys at nine-and-a-half wins are at plus 235 to win the division. Commodores and Giants both at seven-and-a-half. Um, Commanders are plus 460, Giants six to one to win the division. Is there a bet from you, sir?
16:01
Man, I'll tell you, this is very different from the, uh, what we looked at in the AFC, uh, the other day, where, where, man, there's some bets I, I've either made or I'm getting close to making.
16:12
I think the NFC's a little different. I don't know that I, almost any of these divisions, Gil, I'm gonna be that bullish on any of these teams before the season.
16:21
A- and, like, NFC East, I think is back to kinda being up in the air. We've talked about... I, like, I, I think I'm still higher than the Eagles than most, but I'm not higher on them than market.
16:33
I mean, plus 115 to win this division, uh, yeah, I think that probably sounds about right if, if not a little too short. But it sounds like a lot of people have kinda sold on this Eagles team.
16:43
Cowboys, like, Cowboys, I think we saw a lot of what they can be a year ago. How much better than that can they be?
16:51
I, I don't really know, and there was still a lot of healthy players, uh, on that, on that team a year ago.
16:57
So, I, yeah, I think if you wanna look Commanders or Giants here, if you believe really strongly in one of these teams, I, I think there's some value o- o- on, on one of these bomb prices with one of these, uh, teams further down the board.
17:10
Plus 460 on the Commanders, six to one on the Giants. I know you're high on the Commanders. I'm a little high on the Giants, might end up over on their win total. Um, I might take a small piece of this before the season.
17:22
Yeah, I... Listen, I've made the case for the Commanders. People will accuse me of being a homer on this, um, and, uh, perhaps rightfully so to some degree. Mm-hmm.
17:29
But generally, the thing with the Commanders is, I'll tell you all the positive, obviously starting with Jayden Daniels, and this is sort of the, the starting point of how quickly we forget how unbelievable this kid is.
17:43
Um, and so now you have Rashad White in the backfield, and I just think it unlocks something that he never has had in his one-plus years, obviously lots of injuries last year, one-plus years with this franchise.
17:57
Um, Terry McLaurin, your, your wide receiver number one, I don't think Brandon Aiyuk is coming now. I wouldn't want him to come now after his off-the-field shenanigans.
18:06
But, um, I think Chigokonkwu is a big pickup at tight end. I think their defense is super underrated. That linebacking core is unbelievable, and they have Payne and, um, uh, was it, uh-
18:22
Kid from Baltimore, uh, uh, Awufe, what was it? I'm- Oweh... forgetting his name now. Oweh Odafe, pardon me. Oweh Odafe, is that his last... I'm, I'm messing up his name.
18:30
Um, so I think that's a great core at the- Odafe... on the defensive line. But you have, uh, Odafe Oweh. Thank you. Odo- Odafe Oweh, there we go. Uh, Sonny Styles, huge pickup.
18:39
I think he's a potential Defensive Rookie of the Year. But you have Frankie Luvu in that, uh, in that linebacking core as well. You have Kaylavon Chaisson. You have Leo Chenal as pickups.
18:50
I think the secondary is sneaky good. So I think it's a really good football team. The problem is we talk about schedule all the time, Kelly. Mm-hmm.
18:56
And we talked yesterday about, oh, I'm really, I'm, I'm under on the Chargers. But I wouldn't bet it till after the first two games 'cause they have home games that are super easy against the Raiders and the Cardinals.
19:06
Well, with Washington, here are their first games. At Philly, at Dallas, home Seattle. So while I'm bullish, that's a tough stretch to start a season. And what's realistic? Let's say, let's say it's one and two.
19:23
Ooh, okay. Let's give them one and two. Um, uh, b- I, I think it's realistic it'd be more, but let's be conservative, right? Yeah. Let's say it's one and two. Colts in London isn't exactly a breeze either. That's right.
19:33
Colts in London after that, and then by the way, two weeks after that, it's at San Francisco. Mm-hmm. So, and before their bye.
19:39
So it's a tough stretch to begin the season, um, and doesn't get easier right after that with home games against the Eagles and the Rams. It's only after that that it sort of opens up.
19:47
So they're a, a timing thing also, right? Where you may just wanna wait out the be- now, you have to understand that the train may leave the station if they overperform that.
19:57
God help all of you with, uh, the greatness of this franchise. Sorry, got a little carried away. But I'm just saying, those bets will have left the station, right?
20:05
If they overperform those first spate of games, um, it's gonna be a really good season.
20:10
So, you know, 'cause then you have the Giants and the Cardinals and the Titans of the world, and the Falcons and, and that kinda thing. But I'm just saying, there's a timing mechanism to them as well.
20:19
I would wait till I make the bullish bets on them till around the bye, maybe a couple weeks before that. But I do think they're as i- as you said it, in a division that is as up in the air as any. Mm-hmm.
20:31
They're as good of a bet as any, in my opinion. Yep. Yeah, I, I mean, look, as we go through the rest of these, I, it's gonna be a lot of do- dogger, dogger pass for me. Uh, uh, yeah, dogger pass. Uh, okay.
20:44
To the A, to the, pardon me- Call me Dave Tooley... to the NFC North. Say again? I said call me Dave Tooley. Dogger pass. [laughs] Okay, Dave Tooley. [laughs] Um, Lions, Packers, Bears, and Vikings.
20:56
This is the best of the worst teams in any division, right? You have the Lions at 10 and a half. You have the Packers and Bears at nine and a half, and the Vikings at eight and a half total wins.
21:06
As far as the division is concerned, Lions are plus 180. Uh, then it's the Pack at plus 215, the Bears at plus 305, the Vikings at plus 510. And I'll just make the note that many have made in this off-season.
21:18
The Lions go to a super easy schedule.
21:22
Even with a more difficult schedule last year and a spate of injuries, not quite Niners level injuries, but they're like the tier right below that, they still ended up with a hugely positive point differential.
21:34
And I think this is a team that's just ready to explode this year with a really good record. I think they win the division. Yeah, this is, uh, uh, look, I think this division, I can't wait to watch this year.
21:45
I, Lions, you laid it out well. I think deserved favorite. I think the Packers, with the consistency that they've shown u- under Jordan Love and LaFleur the past couple years, I, it just a high-floor team to me.
21:58
I, I don't know about the ceiling with the Packers, but very high-floor team f- uh, for me with Green Bay. I think they des- right. [laughs] I think this order is right, Lions, Packers, Vikings.
22:10
But I, like I won't be shocked, Gil, if we could s- if we continue to see the Caleb Williams-Ben Johnson, uh, relationship to grow and prosper there in Chicago, as seeing them over three to one is pretty interesting to me.
22:24
A- and look, I li- I like this Viking team. I li- lean over on their win total. I think I will be pretty bullish on them.
22:31
It's just, I can't, I know I won't get to the window with either of these bets 'cause this division's too good. Like, it's just too good.
22:39
A- and I think even if you're asking, i- if you're thinking for Bears or Vikings 'cause you like those longer numbers like I do, you gotta get, y- you, I think you have to realistically tell yourself this team has to win more than 10 games, probably more than 11 games.
22:53
So can you really see them at 12 wins? I think that's where you really gotta start asking yourself before you go and make a bet like that.
23:00
I, I don't know if I can get there, but I do, I, I, I'm, I am interested in both those teams this year. Yeah.
23:07
Um, just to give specifics to it with the Lions again, Lions 31 missed games among week one starters in the secondary. I think it's addition by subtraction.
23:17
Without Terry and Arnold, quite frankly, you won't have a flag fest. That dude was a PI machine. Um, they'll be favored, the Lions will, in about 13 or 14 of their games.
23:27
Finished last place in the NFC North despite recording the best points differential in the division last year at plus 68.
23:33
The only other team since 1990 to finish last in the division with the best score differential was the 2022 Saints. Who could forget that? Hmm. In the, uh, NFC South.
23:43
So, and then with the Bears, l- much like with the Commanders the year before, right? Everybody's like, "Oh, even without the injury to Jayden," people are like, "Oh, you won so many games in cardiac fashion.
23:52
Clearly you're due for a bit of a regression." Same justifiably could be said about the Bears. Totally. Yep. So, um, and then the Packers are the Packers, right? I think they'll always be there.
24:02
But I think the, the schedule tips this towards the Lions. We'll do the other two divisions a little later on. Paul Carr joins us to talk about the global football that is the beautiful game, World Cup quarters.
24:13
Let's go. And I got questions about Messi and Pulisic as well coming back. Numbers Game, based in the Sports Betting Network. [upbeat rock music][upbeat music] BSENT, the sports betting network
24:32
Don't forget about the Sharp Plays unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting info, and alerts directly from the pros. Check 'em out, sharpplays.com.
24:41
You can scan the QR code on your screen for more. We get tweets beating the book, S Watson 20, "I am one of those bettors who had a bet on the under 38 and a half Dogs eaten just to have a little action.
24:53
Kudos to you, Gill, for doing a deep dive on this, and if nothing else, my days of betting this are done. I wonder how much action Calshi had on this bet."
25:01
Ooh, I don't know the answer to that, but it's a whole bunch, I bet. Uh, Jesse Welch, "I absolutely love the mental picture that I have of Gill three inches away from the screen studying pseudo cramming down dogs."
25:14
I resemble that remark- Yeah... pretty accurately. For 10 minutes. Um, Joe Nunz. Yes, [laughs] for 10 total minutes. Joe Nunz, "Damn, I retired to listen about the hotdog contest? Bring on football."
25:25
Eh, we'll get there momentarily. Uh, Cody Jets 233, "Over/under six and a half career Grand Slams for Coco." Uh, she's got two now. I'm gonna say under. I'm gonna say under. Two, the competition is too good.
25:40
Mike Zills Duke 90, "Just bet Holland and Kane and make the whole plane out of the black box." [laughs] I love that joke, by the way.
25:49
Uh, just bet Holland and Kane for the Golden Boot and just make the whole plane out of the black box. Why don't they make the plane out of the black box if the black box survives everything?
25:58
Trip Tepper, "Anyone who had a bet on Coco," that's me, "don't go watch the 9-8 point for match point in the tiebreaker. You might drive your car into a telephone pole." And that's why I'm not gonna watch it, Trip.
26:11
Thank you for the advice there. Shooter McGamblin, Brent Hurley 7, "Commander should be ahead of the Cowboys for the division. We've seen this iteration of the Cowboys for many years now.
26:19
Good, not great quarterback, and a lot of B+ players around him." Rules for Society, "Did Dan Campbell learn his lesson? Do we know if Petzing calling plays this year?" Uh, it's going to be David Blough.
26:31
Former Lions starting quarterback David Blough is gonna be calling plays for Washington this year. Um, and, uh, let's see here.
26:40
Ankit Ka- Kadakia, "Did we get lucky with the Big Three and Serena just showing a different level of mental toughness and IQ/game situation?
26:48
It appears the entire ATP and WTA outside of Carlos just gaks it when the going gets tough." There's a lot of that, man. There's a lot of that these days, um, for sure. Um, okay.
27:01
Paul Carr joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. Paul, of course, is at True Media Networks. You can follow him on Twi- on Twitter rather, @PaulCarr, C-A-R-R. Paul, good morning to you.
27:10
We have some breaking soccer news.
27:13
Uh, Christian Pulisic suffering a microfracture versus Belgium, just announced that he sustained a bone bruise and a microfracture in his lower leg and will be sidelined for several weeks, sources confirmed to ESPN.
27:24
So an injury is confirmed. Can you contextualize Christian Pulisic in the pantheon of United States soccer players for us?
27:35
Yeah, I mean, I think from a, we're talking more from a club standpoint, I think this, he's the best US player that there's been. Uh, I'm kind of throwing keepers out. Keepers are kind of their own animal.
27:46
US has obviously had plenty of great keepers at the Premier League level, so we'll just say best outfield player. Um, I mean, he's won Champions League. He's won other trophies.
27:52
He's played for, you know, Chelsea and Milan and Dortmund, like three of the 10 or 15 biggest clubs in the world. Uh, now his national team career, he's done really well.
28:02
He may very well end up being their all-time top scorer, but he obviously hasn't been as successful. Uh, you know, missed a World Cup when he was very first getting on the team.
28:11
He did score a goal at the last World Cup and, and did well here when he was on the field and healthy, which was only about a half. So yeah, he's, he's right in the top.
28:20
He, and he obviously still has, you know, several more years to play, maybe another World Cup. Okay. Here's a, here's another one before we get to your picks. Hmm. Lionel Messi, currently with eight goals- [laughs]...
28:32
um, leading the Golden Boot race. Argentina with an amazing, just electrifying win over Egypt. Obviously, there are different opinions on what happened during that game. Argentina advances. Sure.
28:43
And I guess my question to you is this: In the pantheon of soccer period, the history of the sport, if this continues, if Messi, I don't know, let's say has another, you know, another couple dramatic goals, wins the Golden Boot, Argentina wins the Cup, can we finally just say he's the greatest player of all time?
29:05
It's getting harder and harder to not say he's the greatest, basically. If they win another World Cup with him, I mean,
29:14
even now, I think the only real argument against him is, I mean, it's kind of a foundation type thing. Like, is Babe Ruth a better player than Barry Bonds? Like,
29:24
no is the short answer, but there is something to doing it first and revolutionizing the game and things like that.
29:31
So from that perspective, m- maybe you can make an argument for Pele, maybe even Maradona if you squint a little bit.
29:38
Uh, but from the breadth of what he's accomplished in his career at the club and country level, and doing it, again, it's important, I think, to do it on both those, uh, not just because they're two different competitions, but just different teams.
29:51
If you do everything with just Barcelona, I think that's a little bit different.
29:53
So yeah, it's really hard to say he is not right now, and if they just make the final, let alone win the title, I'm gonna say that's almost an impossible claim. Yeah. That's what it's starting to feel like.
30:06
Um, you would have a better read on that than I. That's why I ask. I, I mean, the comparison- Let us begin with the quarterfinal- I'll make one comparison real quick. Go for it. Real quick.
30:12
T- it's sort of like Tom Brady, you know?
30:15
Like, there was a time where, like, I think he might be the best, and but, yeah, maybe there's an argument for Montana or whatever you wanna make, and then he just kept winning and kept, you know- Peyton...
30:23
six Super Bowls. Yeah. Yeah, Peyton was hanging around for a while. And then you just keep winning and keep doing things- Mm-hmm...
30:28
until you're 53 years old or whatever, and you just kinda can't make an argument, and it's accepted. So I think that's kind of the same thing with Messi here. France, Morocco today in Foxborough.
30:38
How are you playing this? I have both teams to score here. Uh, France, their defense has not been bad, but it hasn't been great, just kind of been fine throughout the tournament. We know all about their attack.
30:48
They feel like they could hang g- three goals on anybody, unless you just kind of bunker in and try to play for penalties like Paraguay did. Morocco won't do that. I mean, they are... They won't pack it in. They'll...
30:58
I mean, they'll have less of the ball, but they'll come right at you. They have a pretty good counter-attack, even without their, uh, best forward, who's gonna miss this game injured.
31:04
So, I mean, France getting a goal is, you know, I'm not going out on any kind of limb there. But Morocco, this is a good team. This is a top 10 team in the world, and they're comfortable with the ball.
31:13
They're comfortable without the ball. And I think they'll find a way to poke holes in that French midfield and defense, which again, has been fine, but not great.
31:20
So both teams to score here, uh, minus 105, I think, was my price. This is super easy to remember. Paul has both teams to score, France, Morocco. Then tomorrow, same bet with Spain and Belgium? Same thing.
31:32
It's a little, uh, not controversial, but it's a little more of a limb in the sense that Spain has not given up a goal this whole tournament. So, uh, and Belgium is not an offensive juggernaut.
31:43
But the thing I think they have going for them is that they've shown the willingness to make subs and just go for it.
31:47
They did it against Senegal when they were down two goals late, make the subs and just kind of throw everything forward. Uh, so I think they're gonna be inclined to do that.
31:55
So we kind of assume Spain's gonna get a lead, and then Belgium's gonna have to make up ground, and I think they will go for it and just give it a shot. And they have enough talent.
32:03
This is not a, you know, top five team in the world, but they're, you know, top 10-ish. I think they're ranked ninth overall, which is roughly right. They have talent.
32:10
They have, you know, game-changing types who can do things. So I think both teams get a goal here. Uh, I mean, I don't ex- really expect Belgium to get through, but I think they'll get on the scoreboard.
32:20
I am told if no one scores against you, you will not lose a, a soccer match, unless you lose- It, it is difficult to lose... on PKs, I guess. Correct. Yeah. Correct. It's difficult to lose. Right.
32:28
Now, it's not a certainty, but it's difficult to lose. Right. Saturday, double header beginning with the marquee matchup, the banger, Norway and England. You're playing a total here. This'll be fun.
32:40
Yeah, I'm going over two and a half here. Uh, all five Norway games so far have had at least three goals, and the underlying numbers back that up, over three expected goals in all of them as well.
32:49
Uh, England, again, not a great defensive team. Still a lot of questions. I mean, Mexico was able to generate a lot of good chances against them early on, uh, before the red card, oddly enough.
33:00
Uh, so I think we're gonna get goals one way or the other. We've got Haaland, we've got Kane. We've got two of the best goal scorers in the world, and teams that are going to feed them.
33:08
Jude Bellingham's been great, uh, for England, making those runs into the box. Martin Odegaard, uh, setting up Norway midfield. So, uh, yeah, this should be a really fun game.
33:17
I don't quite know which way this is gonna go, but I think there's gonna be goals one way or the other. Let's go Erling Haaland. Let's go Norway. Yeah. Um- Yeah...
33:26
and then Saturday night in Kansas City, which I think means that Paul Carr will be in attendance for this, yes? Yes. World Cup quarterfinal, I'll be there. Argentina, Switzerland, also a total play.
33:39
So yeah, I'm betting against human achievement on the Swiss side here. Under half a goal for Switzerland, plus 115. Uh, Switzerland's not an offensive juggernaut. They...
33:48
I mean, if you watch the Colombia game, they generated very little. Their best attacker, Johan Mwanzambiri, is this 20-year-old kid who's probably going to Newcastle. Uh, he probably is not going to play in this game.
33:57
He missed the last game, and without him, they miss that kind of extra spark, creativity, dynamite, some would, whatever you wanna call it.
34:04
Uh, Argentina's weakness defensively is really on the wings, and Switzerland doesn't really... I mean, they're not terrible attacking the wings, but there's nothing special, uh, there.
34:13
So they're not particularly suited to attack Argentina well. So plus 115, Switzerland not to score, essentially. All right. France, Morocco, both teams to score today. Tomorrow, Spain, Belgium, both teams to score.
34:26
Then on Saturday, Norway, England over two and a half goals, and then Switzerland under a half goal, so just the Switzerland side, under a half goal, versus Argentina. Should be fun. Paul, who's winning it all?
34:41
Still got France. I mean, they're- Still got France... I, I don't think any team is perfect. All, the top four teams all have shown flaws in different ways, but I think France has the highest ceiling of any of them.
34:51
That's right. Too good. What's the best- Let's go... what's the best story? What's the best story? Which team winning here at this point? I mean- Ar- Argentina, I think. I mean, Messi going out- Yeah...
35:00
with another one, you know. Yeah, I would guess he'd retire internationally after that. You can't beat that. Norway was the correct answer there. Come on, Paul. Ah, sorry. Come on. Ah, dropped the ball there.
35:08
Get in the boat. Get in the boat. My bad. Correct, correct answer was Norway. All of our English- Oh... listeners are screaming as well- [laughs]... at the, at the screens. That's all right. Thank you, Paul.
35:16
That's all right. Appreciate it. Coming back- Yeah, good one... coming to the Numbers Game.
35:19
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
35:36
Back on the Numbers Game. Gil Alexander live from San Francisco. Kelly Bidlin back at the mothership in Las Vegas at Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. It is a numbers game.
35:47
Uh, you missed it earlier, Muchova beats Coco 12-10 in the, uh, tiebreaker. Still licking my wounds. This is, uh, Jared@scarscar32 on Twitter, "Come on Goff, you had it and you let it slip away.
36:01
The altitude at Wimbledon is only 94 [laughs] feet." [laughs] Yeah, it wasn't the altitude or the elevation.
36:07
Um, Montreal Max, "Hate when we're oppo on these matches, but prior to the Goff gaff, the chair gave Muchova a time warning of all things, serving at 8-H, which she then netted her first serve and lost the second serve, but her game is so beautiful to watch," as Mack compares it to, uh, Justine Ena- Henin.
36:26
Yeah, it's, I've always said this about Muchova, and we've, w- we always say on our podcasts, our, our Tennis Grand Slam podcast, we probably talk more about Muchova over time, uh, as far as non-Slam winners, more than anybody who else who's not ever won a Slam It j- she's just a, it's a beautiful game.
36:43
We've won betting on her a lot. Today she gets the best of Coco when apparently Coco gagged match point at 9-8, which I don't dare watch.
36:51
Justin D., quick answering no from Paul Carr when throwing out the, uh, "Is Babe Ruth a better player [laughs] than Barry Bonds?" was a wise choice for the sake of his segment, LOL. Very true.
37:03
[laughs] I, I, uh- Got you through with that no... I did notice that as well. It was a quick- I was like, ooh, Barry Bonds, where's he going here? Oh, that was quick. Quick, quick to reel it back in.
37:13
If- Is he as good as Barry Bonds? Uh, no. I was like, okay, easy.
37:17
Um, boy, oh boy, that's, uh, that, that was interesting though from Paul about putting not only Pulisic in context with American soccer players, but also the Messi thing.
37:28
'Cause I w- I really did wanna ask that, which is, I mean, are we really telling ourselves that this... Pele is Pele, right?
37:36
And his point is well taken about it's when you're the first to do something, right, when you just catapult the sport single-handedly, you will always be in your own category.
37:46
But as far as, like, the best of all time, boy, he said it perfectly. It is getting tougher and tougher to make the argument against Messi- Yeah... at this point.
37:56
And, and our, our college football buddy, I don't know if you saw this, Kelly. Did we talk about this either on or off air?
38:02
Uh, Pete Futak, who comes on to do college football with us- We, we definitely did- Or d- Where- wherever you're going, we definitely did not talk about. Okay. Yeah. So Pete Fu- I hope he's doing well.
38:11
Haven't heard or thought about him in a couple months.
38:14
Pete Futak a couple weeks ago, so the World Cup was already underway, Messi was scored a bunch of goals, and Futak very innocently on Twitter, 'cause all of his tweets are very innocent, he, uh, he innocently tweets, uh, "Serious question from, like," and I'm paraphrasing, from, like, an average American who doesn't really follow soccer.
38:33
"But if Messi is this good," he says, "why is he playing in the MLS?" Right? That was his question. Dude, he got m- I, I won- I don't wanna say millions, but, like, hundreds of thousands- [laughs]...
38:47
of, like, likes and retweets and all this kind of stuff. It, 'cause it was a really innocent question. He's just like, I mean, this dude is clearly, like, the greatest still. He's 39 years old, or however old he is.
38:57
He's 39, I believe. Um, um- Decade? So it's just, it's incredible, and I do think, uh, I do think the, the way I phrased it was, was deliberate, which is- Mm-hmm...
39:07
yeah, if they get knocked out in this next round, maybe we're not having this conversation, but if this continues for Argentina, he keeps scoring goals. Yeah, he's 39, by the way. Yep. He keeps scoring goals.
39:17
Just turned 39. Just turned 39. Um, him, Djokovic, they're all 39. Um, they, he keeps scoring goals and Argentina wins this, how can you say he's not anymore? How can you say he's not?
39:29
It's, uh- So- It's pretty incredible to watch, espe- uh, uh, especially, Gil, he's not gifted like some of the others, like Erling Haaland, you know, with being Jo- i- i- respect to the Drew- That's right...
39:41
the Drew Brees body type versus the Josh Allen body type. You know what I mean? Respect there. I, you gotta give it to him for that. Uh, R.
39:49
Johnson, The Realest RJ, did not like the, uh, the Dak Prescott sort of shade that was given earlier by another tweeter.
39:57
He says, "To be fair, Dallas's good but not great quarterback's record versus the NFC East is 37 and 10 straight up. This has to mean something," he said. I, I like it.
40:06
Um- I like, I, there should be more conversation like this. I'm very pro. This is what I always bring up, Gil.
40:13
It's why does Dak Prescott get killed every, every off-season and Justin Herbert gets put on this pedestal- [laughs]... and they're, like, the same guy? I knew you were gonna wedge Justin Herbert into this.
40:25
Um, PK- I probably, I'm not even, I, I never even try to defend Dak. I just think he gets crit- I think he gets killed unfairly sometimes, and he's a pretty damn good quarterback.
40:34
And I think Justin Herbert's a pretty damn good quarterback. I just don't see many rings, you know? Or playoff wins. I have, I have, I have two favorite things about this.
40:41
One is you bringing up Justin Herbert at every given opportunity, which by the way I don't disagree with, right? I'm just, I, I get giggly about it when you start- Yeah... when you start in on it.
40:50
And then our buddy Lou Finicara, who's the nicest guy in the world. Lou's a Justin Herbert guy, so he always [laughs] every once in a while he'll send an angry text about the Herbert slander.
41:00
Uh, and then PK- He is great. He's great. Yeah. But- Yeah... gotta win at some point. There's a lot of game... Now here, it, it's, it, the problem, and here's how I put it with Herbert.
41:11
There's a lot of close games with the Chargers over time where he doesn't come through at the end, but the caveat is, or, or but the alternate side of that is, not the caveat. Mm.
41:22
The, the other way of saying it, though, is that they're not in it at the end unless it's him at quarterback. No, for sure. For sure. But the other one- You know?
41:30
The other one where I would go and defend Dak a bit with, and yes, you could say different seasons with the Cowboys, the roster has looked wildly different. You know what?
41:39
Justin Herbert has al- like every season had some p- all, all pro, Pro Bowl, I mean at least Pro Bowl level wide receiver to throw the ball to. It's been incredible the weapons he's had throughout his career.
41:51
It, it, it has been. Uh, and then PK, uh, Mountain Steeler Dan, uh, Mountain Steeler Dan, pardon me, "Good news, uh, now can watch ANG today for a bit. Bad news, early morning job interview, uh, online canceled.
42:03
At airport early to take aforementioned interview and then fly out for a trip. Flight delayed, mechanical. Open up the show and first thing I hear is, uh, Gil oy vey about Coco." Yeah, sorry about that, man. Sorry.
42:17
Uh, and then JD in Florida, "Looking forward to Crack at the top of the hour. Class in session. Professor Crack far and away the best hour of any guest on a weekly basis."
42:25
Um, as far as the bets today, Kelly, I'm on the draw here, uh, in this game between France and Morocco in this match today at Foxborough, first quarterfinal of the 2026 World Cup. I'm on the draw at plus 299.
42:37
Um, France had trouble scoring against Paraguay, uh, only got there with a PK in the 70th minute I believe it was, so I'm gonna go draw here, 90 minute plus The, uh, added time plus 299.
42:50
And then there's the Red Sox most wins in July, 80 to one off to about as good of a start as we could possibly have had, five and one. Um, one win behind the Brewers, who are at six and three.
43:02
Brewers have played three more baseball games, lead the Red Sox by one, uh, win. Twins are also at five and one, so it's not just the Red Sox there. Tigers are also involved, but there are the Red Sox doing good things.
43:16
You, sir. All right, I'm gonna start with a quick Justin Herbert retraction.
43:20
I might have gone too far that last, uh, that last sentence, Gil, 'cause, uh, the, the wide receiver situation in Dallas, especially last year and this year, definitely better than what Justin Herbert's dealing with.
43:28
So I better give you that one. But I was talking more beginning of the se- be- beginning of the career. You know what I mean. Uh, okay, soccer for me, Spain win to nil plus 180. I'm with Mr.
43:38
Chris Felica on that one against Belgium tomorrow. Norway plus a half a goal or the double chance, and then I played two-one correct score. I might be adding on to these, but this is where I started yesterday, Gil.
43:51
I, I think I threw out about 15 different possible Norway bets yesterday on the show. This is where I deci- decided to start. We'll see if I add anything else there. NBA Summer League, I'll be out there tonight.
44:02
Come find me if you are. Maybe we can hang out. Jazz, I'm laying a point and a half, 115 in the game tonight, and then I am playing Grizzlies and Nets in the futures markets.
44:13
Grizzlies 10 to one, Nets 11 to one to win the Summer League. Okay. Uh, we also got a, uh... By the way, uh, Zach Cohen and I are opposite on this next semifinal as well.
44:24
He's on Marta Kostyuk versus Linda Noskova, but keep in mind he got it at a better number for VSiN subscribers last night or yesterday, vsin.com/picks, for all, uh, subscribers, every host, every guest, every sport, every bet.
44:36
So he's on minus 128. It's pretty much out of whack to play now on Kostyuk. I'm on Noskova as a slight dog, a worse number than you can get N- Noskova on right now.
44:48
So in Noskova's case, I would play it now at the slightly better number. Um, Zach also, Summer League.
44:55
Overall, he's got the Nets to win NBA Summer League at 14 to one, the Hawks to win it at 18 to one, the Mavs to win it at 60 to one, and then in today's games, T-Wolves over the Pelicans on the money line, Mavs plus five and a half versus the Warriors, Jazz laying the point and a half versus the Wizards in, I guess, what is really the marquee matchup of night number one, the number two pick in the draft, Darren Peterson for the Jazz, the number one pick in the draft, AJ Dibonsa of the Wizards facing each other.
45:22
Paul Carr today, France, Morocco, both teams to score. Tomorrow, Spain, Belgium, both teams to score.
45:26
Saturday, Norway, England over two and a half goals, Switzerland under a half a goal for the Switzerland side specifically versus Argentina on Saturday. Uh, as far as, uh, Jared-- no, no, who-- one more, I'm sorry.
45:41
Nemo, Ryan's voice on Twitter, "Looks like no one is touching the current baseball slate on the show. Numbers are all tight. I guess I'll take the hit and just stay away." Well, not exactly.
45:50
I will be on the Red Sox as well tonight. Uh, Red Sox facing Anthony Kaye. Uh, Red Sox are a slight dog, but Anthony Kaye is a lefty, and I love the Red Sox against lefties. Give them to me with that right-handed lineup.
46:03
So Red Sox trying to get to six and one in July and complete the sweep of the White Sox. So I will be on the BoSox tonight. Crack is next in studio. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
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