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Jun 11, 2024
A Numbers Game | June 11, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | June 11, 2024 | Hour 1
00:00
44:34
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on Visa. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at Visa, the sports betting network, visa.com, Game Plus, AI Heart Radio. I almost said A Heart. iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. [laughs] Where did that come from? And A Heart too, if you're out there.
0:20
Yeah, if you're out there, that's quite the network as well. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin live from Bar Canada. The D, what's happening? Not much, man.
0:27
We got- we got a little black and white cookie thing going on the past two days. You noticed that? I- I was in black yesterday, you were in white, and now we've flip-flopped. Yeah, you said that to me this morning.
0:34
I'm like, "Oh, okay." Yeah. I don't know. What are you like, oh, you're fashion-y. Found it interesting. Well, I gotta, I, I, we're doing long shots later. Uh-huh. It's called Long Shots.
0:41
So I- I gotta rock the jacket, you know what I mean? Got it. But then, you know, I wanna be a little bit more casual for this one. I don't know. I hear you, man.
0:47
So long shots, you know, again, uh, d- obviously, if you've been trapped under a heavy object, the US Open, golf's third major of the year. We always have to s- take that pause. The PGA now is second. Yeah.
1:00
Golf's third major of the year happening this week. How many times does Long Shots air? Four? Seven? How many times? That's a great question. I don't know. Um, uh, we will be recording today.
1:11
We'll be up in podcast form today. Okay. And then we will be live on the video side, not live, we'll be airing on the video side tomorrow at 12:00 PM Eastern Time, and then I believe later, uh, Wednesday night as well.
1:22
So right after a Numbers Game tomorrow. Yes. It's called Long Shots. It's called Long Shots. US Open betting preview tomorrow noon Eastern with Kelly Bidlin, Matt Brown, and the great Wes Reynolds.
1:34
Actually, we'll just keep calling it live, 'cause I wanna see e- I wanna see everybody tweet in about how I ran over to Circa and changed so quickly- Sprinters... four minutes tomorrow. [laughs] Avoiding shivving.
1:42
That's right, yeah.
1:43
[laughs] Um, I wanna start with some- by the way, on the show today, Drew Dinsick will join us, talk, uh, NBA playoffs, obviously, NBA finals, uh, what he learned in the French, maybe look ahead to see how he's gonna tackle Wimbledon, all kinds of things, his thoughts on the US Open as well, 'cause I know he, uh, he participates in Calcutas and that sort of thing.
2:01
Uh, Paul Sporer on baseball a little later, and Byron Lindequist. Byron Lindequist, the host of the Back Nine Bets podcast, senior contributor at RotoBaller PGA, um, he's gonna give us his US Open thoughts.
2:14
He is South African. Mm-hmm. Um, so again, like with Dan Weston, there will be a language barrier here. [laughs] I can't wait, I can't wait for it.
2:21
Byron's a great golf follow, great, uh, great golf betting mind, does some great stuff. We haven't had him on, on the show before. I'm looking forward to it today. Looking forward to it.
2:28
Uh, and I'm, I don't wanna do your st- I mean, I will do the standard, we'll get all of his picks, but I also want to talk about something that you were impressed by with him some time ago when you listened to a podcast that he was on, which is he sort of did a autopsy.
2:40
And by the way, we, we haven't said this in a long time. Mm.
2:42
But for those who are new to betting or new-ish to betting, you know, you win, you lose, you should always, first of all, you should be recording if you're doing this seriously.
2:51
Yeah, maybe you're doing it for entertainment, you don't care about this, but if you're doing this seriously, you should be logging all of your bets in every sport.
2:57
You should try to parse them out in as many ways as possible, but, you know, if you don't wanna get too crazy on it, uh, I understand, but you should. The more that you are into it, the more you should.
3:05
And, uh, he did a sort of, you know, retrospective on, or really, really just sort of a analysis of some of his markets that he bet, what he learned from that last year. Mm-hmm.
3:17
So why don't we get into some of that as well?
3:18
Yeah, it was, it was him and Pat Mayo, and I believe it was at the end of last season, I believe, is when they did this podcast, but I- I think it's one for, for those of us that bet golf regularly, where it's so, you know, how often do we pull up Major League Baseball and you're looking at our top ROI- Yeah...
3:32
uh, ROI teams, bottom ROI teams. Okay, well, how does that kind of translate over to some of these golf betting markets that we talk about a lot, probably top, specifically top 10s, top 20s, that type of thing.
3:43
And okay, it's great if I can s- I can sit here and say I'm betting Xander Schauffele top 10 every week, but those odds are obviously not the same every week. They're moving, right?
3:52
So at the end of the year, not how m- not only how many top 10s did Xander Schauffele hit, but at the end of the year, are you up money, and how much, and at what odds- Yeah... are those making sense to bet?
4:02
So there were, there was a very, very good podcast on how to- I'm feeling, I'm feeling geeky today. Ooh. I'm feeling nerdy. Let's go. Nerd it up, bro.
4:07
We should go through, we're gonna go through some baseball stuff as well by, um... This is, this is my favorite new baseball follow, as I fumble the, uh, as I fumble the phone here. Brooks Gate.
4:18
You familiar with this guy? I don't know, th- there used to be a s- back in the day, baseball geeks will remember this, baseball, uh, hardos will remember Brooks by Baseball. I wonder if it's the same person.
4:27
I don't know if it is or not. I r- see, I remember that one, and yes, I did not know of this- But-... this one when you started sounding it... but whoever is running this site, we gotta get him on, or her. Could be her.
4:37
Uh, we gotta get this person on, 'cause there's a lot of really interesting baseball tweets that we'll get into throughout the show, um, that I think, you know, one of the things also from just a macro perspective on betting, much of what you are doing in every sport is to try to determine what is sustainable and what is not.
4:54
So in other words, teams have records, uh, players have records if it's an individual sport, whatever it is.
5:00
Um, who is, who has been fortunate, who has been unfortunate, what is actually a proper reflection of skill set?
5:07
And so baseball is probably the best lab, um, to look at that in, and is the most clear, and so we'll get into that throughout the show as well. I wanna start with, with something that, uh,
5:16
we ended up in our, in our text exchange with, uh, Wishnev, Fezzik, Will Hill, and Chris Fallica yesterday, and I, I wanted to touch on it, because I mentioned it yesterday in passing and didn't really seize on it, and I could, you know, I s- I sensed that I was probably unclear about this kind of thing.
5:30
So Dan Hurley, we were on the air yesterday, and we didn't know if he was going to take the Lakers job or not 24 hours ago, and I was reading a tweet, I had mentioned it, and, uh, someone said, "Well, you know, follow the money.
5:41
Before you, they said he was minus 400 in a betting market to go to, to become the Lakers' next head coach." And I, in reacting to the tweet, I was just sort of like, "Oh, okay," and I just kept going.
5:52
And I didn't mean that to sound flippant about them having said it.
5:56
What I, what I intended to convey is when it comes to these kinds of markets, and this is just sort of, you know, a, a betting thing for people, again, who are new to this.
6:05
When it's a When it's a minus 400 in a market, say, at BetOnline or Bovada, right? These are markets that are capped in terms of what people are betting. It could just be 25 bucks for all we know. Maybe it's even less.
6:19
Right, yeah. And so it doesn't take anything, right? If Woj has a report, three people are gonna bet it, and all of a sudden it's minus 400.
6:29
So I guess what I'm saying is, it's a, just a sort of, uh, PSA about these kinds of particular markets, es- specifically this player to the next team or this coach to the next team.
6:40
Um, and so as we found out, uh, there was nothing to it, um, or he turned it down, whatever story you believe. Dan Hurley says no to the reported seven-year deal for 80 million.
6:53
Was that the, was that the proposed deal that we're getting reported? There are some people who believe that this was all- 70 million. Six year, 70. Six year, 70. Pardon me. Yeah, six year, 70.
7:01
By the way, six year, 70 in the scheme of coaching life at the top of your profession,
7:07
while it sounds like a tremendous, huge amount of money to mere mortals like you and me, I'm not sure that would've been enough to sway Dan Hurley from a two-time college, you know, a repeat college championship coach to coach the Lakers.
7:22
Like, that sh- that should've been way higher than that, shouldn't it have been? Uh, I, I think everybody was expecting a higher offer.
7:28
I mean, I mean, it, it would've put him in line, I think, to be the fifth highest paid NBA coach. I'm trying to look up right now. What do, what do you believe about this, though? The other opinion on this is
7:38
this was never anything, that Shams got the scoop on, um- Right... on JJ Redick being a candidate. Woj was upset about it, and then Woj goes and just sort of has connections, like, "Oh, the Lakers, Dan Hurley.
7:54
This is a thing. Oh, now it's not a thing." Like, I mean, who knows what's real? I think it was definitely a thing. I think it was definitely a thing. Was it maybe overblown- That's what I mean...
8:02
h- how much the Lakers wanted him? That's what I mean. That's definitely possible. Yeah.
8:08
Was it also, I also don't know that I will believe for a second the, I mean, the, the reporting here has been, has been s- kind of sketchy timeline th- uh, throughout.
8:17
I, the part- It was full court press, then it went away. Right. It goes quiet.
8:20
So the other part that I don't believe, Gil, is, okay, this is, uh, like I, I've seen specific stuff talking about, oh no, this was not Dan Hurley treating this as a negotiating tactic.
8:29
But like, he's instantly gonna double his salary from last year to what he's rolling into n- with next year with likely with UConn. So like, what? Like, what?
8:37
But what I was saying yesterday was also if y- again, for 98% of college coaches, this is now a different profession than it was when you took the job. You are now recruiting- Yes... your own team.
8:46
You're recruiting other teams' players. That wasn't the job when you took it. Mm. But if you're Dan Hurley, you're on the mountaintop, and you have a, you're, you're already a repeat champion.
8:55
You're going for the all, you know, all too rare three-peat. It's a different sort of story. You're the king of Storrs, Connecticut. Yeah. So I don't know, and maybe he's an East Coast guy. Who knows?
9:03
And w- and by, by all accounts, killed it this off season as far as bringing guys in- Yeah...
9:07
keeping guys and everything like that, so the team's loaded up, but- Plus again, is the Lakers that great of a job if, you know? Like, Lakers offer, right? And then we heard about- Yeah...
9:14
this Kentucky offer coming in, and it's like, okay, all it is is this guy just, he did a great job [laughs] negotiating and is gonna get more money to s- maybe stay exactly where he wanted to be at.
9:23
Anyway, just that PSA about a betting market like a BetOnline or a Bovada.
9:27
When a number moves like that, it is not always and often not an indicator of actual reality of what's going to happen, because it doesn't take much to move that stuff.
9:37
Um, and- Now, now the Redick side of this stu- uh, stuff's inter- like, I don't know where this leaves the Lakers. Like, that, that, where are the Lakers at today? I have no idea. No idea.
9:45
It's, it's Borrego or it's Redick. It's probably Borrego in the end. I'm gonna kinda laugh. It, I'm sorry. Yeah. But it's funny if it's Borrego, and that is nothing against, uh, Borrego.
9:53
But that is [laughs] when you, when Hurley and Redick have been floated around like this for the past three weeks now or whatever, and it's gonna end up being him? All right.
10:00
I- it's, it's also why I don't get involved in those markets, even if we could here in Nevada. Um, they're just, they're squirrely. You don't know. You don't know what's happening with these teams.
10:08
Yeah, I think, though, that you're talking about the limits. It's like, I mean, uh, uh, the big- Well, I'm not, not only the limits, but just I don't know what's happening. Sure, sure. Yeah.
10:15
Uh, also like biggest piece of advice because of what you're talking about. Yeah. Even if you are limited, I wouldn't be caring too much about it. [laughs] Yeah. 'Cause you shouldn't be betting that mu- that much on it.
10:22
Uh, hockey last night, the Panthers take a two to nothing lead in the best of seven Stanley Cup Final against the Edmonton Oilers, and this just feels like the Panthers are the better hockey team.
10:32
They're up two to nothing here, the four to one win.
10:35
Um, and the Oilers, it feels like these soccer sides we'll see internationally where one t- one side is clearly better than the other, but if the, if the one side that's worse talent-wise gets a goal first, then they hold, they hope to hold on for dear life.
10:48
Edmonton scored first last night. Um, they got one by Bobrovsky, but then in the scheme of things, the Oilers were just killing off power plays. At one point, it was 34 in a row that they killed off.
11:00
They only had seven shots on goal through the first two periods.
11:04
And in the end, uh, Evan Rodriguez with a couple g- uh, Evan Rodriguez with a couple goals to, uh, make it two to one and then three to one in the third period and then an empty net or four to one.
11:13
Um, I was just looking through, because it's two to nothing in both the NBA finals and the NHL finals.
11:18
I was looking at the average number of wins in all of the best of seven series this year in the NHL and the NBA playoffs. You ready for this? Mm. Average number of wins for the losing teams in all the best of sevens.
11:29
NHL, 1.57 wins per losing team this year. NHL, wow. NBA, 1.29. That's how uncompetitive this has been, bottom line. That's not including the current two-nothing series. That's just before this.
11:48
We're coming back with Drew Dincic next. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:00
Numbers Game presented by Zyn Nicotine Patches, America's number one nicotine patch. Find out more at zyn.com. Uh, don't forget Long Shots. Once again, we mentioned this in the first segment. Never too,
12:11
too many times to, uh, promote it again. Long Shots podcast, Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, Kelly Bidlin, US Open betting preview tomorrow. Noon Eastern, 9:00 AM Pacific, right here after a numbers game.
12:23
Everything broken down for the US Open at Pinehurst. Pinehurst, North Carolina, where Scottie Scheffler, of course, is the, uh, the short shot once again. You think you're gonna have some top fives on Scheffler?
12:35
Yep, that's the way to go. Yep. Uh- I already do. You do already? What, what number did you get? Uh, I b- uh, I bid at a, a bit of minus 135 yesterday, but I'm wait- I'm still waiting for shops to open up in town.
12:47
All right. We'll get, uh, Drew's thoughts on this momentarily. I just wanna... Y- you, uh, you're big... Can you share with people?
12:51
Let me just repeat those stats that I just mentioned, just in terms of this is not a betting thing.
12:55
Um, it could have been a betting thing, but just in retrospect now with both the Stanley Cup Final and the NBA Finals at two to nothing in favor of the Florida Panthers and the Boston Celtics respectively, as the, uh, series now head to Edmonton and Dallas respectively.
13:10
The average number of wins per, uh, these best of sevens before the finals, before the respective finals, again, in the NHL is 1.57, so four... So 22 total wins by the losers in 14 series up to this point.
13:24
So 1.57 wins per losing team. And in the NBA this year, and this is the one, this is why I did it, 'cause I was like, how many, how many series did we actually have in these NBA playoffs?
13:33
Eight playoffs where beforehand, remember, we were like, "This is going to be the greatest Western Conference playoffs in the history of Western..." Right? We were saying that. [laughs] Shut up, Gil.
13:41
I definitely said that like 18 times. The total number of wins per losing teams in the 14 series that have taken place in the Eastern Conference and the Western Conference prior to the finals, which is two to nothing.
13:54
We're not even talking about that yet. 18 in 14 series, 1.29 wins. There have only been three series that have gone to the full seven games.
14:04
That was, uh, Cleveland Orlando, which I'm not sure any human being actually saw that series. Or remembers. [laughs] Or remembers it. [laughs] At this point.
14:10
The, the one I couldn't remember was Indiana and New York went to seven. Yeah. Oh, yeah.
14:13
And I forgot, but remember when the, when the broadcast crew was eulogizing the Knicks 10 minutes before the end, as if they had won 25 championships. Still one of the best series of the playoffs.
14:23
Uh, and then Minnesota Denver, of course, which is the, uh, the series I would contend ruined the entire playoffs for everybody.
14:28
I'm still more surprised by the, uh- [laughs] Still more surprised by the NHL number, but that's just 'cause I've been watching every single one of these NBA games so intently. Yeah. Yeah.
14:36
It has not been, in terms of just a, a non-betting perspective, in terms of just a viewer excitement level, that has not been that great of a, uh, of a spring with both of those.
14:45
Drew Dinsick, though, probably feels differently 'cause I think he's got the Boston Celtics, so what does he care?
14:49
It's Drew now, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, the host of not one, but two podcasts, uh, the Deep Dive with Andy Molitor and of course, NBC Sports Bet the Edge with Jake Croucher, who was throwing out pictures.
14:59
Jake Croucher, where was he? Was he at the Celtics game? Yeah, he went, uh, on, uh, Sunday. He was, uh, sitting baseline. Uh, great s- great seats [laughs] at the Garden. Nice.
15:09
Uh, there to, to, to see the Celtics home, uh, hopefully. Uh, two more left. Two wins left. It's not over yet. It's not over yet. Well, h- you gotta be feeling good though, right? Oh, yeah, absolutely. This was massive.
15:21
Yeah.
15:21
I mean, if something weird was gonna happen in the series, it was gonna be Dallas sticking their foot in the door early and, uh, getting those two wins, particularly game two, because I thought the Celtics played pretty poorly all, all sudden, uh, you know, all told.
15:33
Uh, well, at least they shot really poorly.
15:35
Um, they were getting incredibly good offensive looks on it, felt like every single possession, but, uh, really just kind of struggled until the second half to, uh, put the ball through the hoop and, um, you know, getting that one home.
15:46
Though those are the kind of games the Celtics lose, have lost in frustrating fashion, uh, throughout this, uh, entire run, uh, of this core. Um, and, uh, seeing that one to the finish line was pretty exciting.
15:58
Now, now they go on the road and they basically have, at least by my number, two coin flips. Um, win one of these coin flips, and then, uh, take care of business in game five and we can hang, uh, hang banner number 18.
16:08
Yeah. Um, uh, I'll repeat what I asked of, for folks yesterday. The old adage, of course, is a series doesn't start till someone loses on their home court, which you just, you know, again, pointed out.
16:17
If the Celtics can take one here, maybe the gentleman's sweep is coming. But is there anything... I'll ask you to take off your Celtics hat for a second. Sure. Is there anything...
16:27
If you're, if you're a Mavericks backer or a Mavericks fan, what do you hang your hat on in those first two games? Like, how do you talk yourself into this?
16:37
I mean, I think if you're a, if you're a Mavericks backer or a fan, you're looking at the shooting statistics and you're saying, "It can't get worse." [laughs] It can only improve. [laughs] Yeah.
16:49
Uh, because they have been obscenely poor, uh, shooting the ball. And- 13, 13 of 53 from three- [laughs] Yeah... by the way. Yeah, yeah. 13 of 53, 24.5%. Yeah.
17:01
And you know, the, the higher the stakes in the playoffs, the more of, uh, you know, kind of the role player bump comes at home rather than on the road.
17:10
Um, and so if, you know, if the adjustment of, you know, role players play better, uh, if that comes through in games three and game four, you might get a little bit of a surge.
17:20
Um, but, uh, I mean, f- you know, uh, uh, from a s- from an X's and O's, from a strategy standpoint, watching the games, it feels like such an clear and obvious mismatch in so many ways.
17:30
I'm not sure what the Mavericks do. Um, kind of spitballing, you know, well, what are some solutions? How, how do they get the offense going? Well, do, do they need, uh, some P.J. Washington at the five?
17:41
Do we need to get Tim Hardaway out on the floor with these guys to have more shooting? Uh, can D- you know, is, is Derrick Jones Jr., uh, you know, his, his reluctance to fire, uh, is that a problem?
17:51
Do you need to get him off the floor? Like, all three of those questions you ask, and, like, that unlocks all of the offense for the Celtics.
17:59
And so then you just have turned it into, um, you know, a, a full on, [laughs] uh, shootout, and you're just hoping to, crossing your fingers that you make the threes and you win the shootout.
18:09
But, um, you know, the, the moments of games one and two where it felt like the Mavericks had a bit of an advantage was when the game really slowed down to a slog.
18:18
The Celtics weren't really getting into their offensive sets. They weren't getting good looks. They weren't getting into their offensive movements, uh, early enough in the shot clock to make 'em, make them matter.
18:27
Um, and you know, I think- The Mavericks could not take advantage of that by turning around those a- those solid defensive possessions and, and creating offense.
18:37
Uh, so, I, I, yeah, I, I think the, the, all of the answers to the tough questions in this series for the Mavericks are, are bad.
18:45
Um, and, you know, the fact that, uh, you know, their most important offensive weapon in Luka is their biggest defensive liability is, uh, really kind of fundamentally, um, you know, the key crux of the problem here.
18:58
Um, the Mavericks have gotten here in a lot of ways by exploiting the corner three. Uh, the Celtics are the best team in the NBA by margin at taking away the corner three.
19:07
Now they allow one per game, which is ironically what they have given up two pr- to this point in the series.
19:13
Um, and so the Mavericks not getting those free, free opportunities or those, you know, plus EV shots from the corner, uh, and forcing most of the open looks for the Mavericks to be above the break ha- has been a huge, um, you know, huge kind of, in my opinion, tactical advantage for the Celtics in this one.
19:28
And, um, you know, without the shooters to be able to punish them above the break, I'm not sure what you do, uh, if you're the Mavericks.
19:35
And, you know, the- there's been a lot of interesting kind of str- strategery on the Mav- on the Mavericks part, uh, you know, putting two on Tatum for a lot of their defensive sets.
19:45
And, uh, you know, Tatum has obviously not really shown up on the, in the box score from a shooting or a point standpoint, but he's been, uh, absolutely diabolical from a, you know, an assist, a drive and assist, drive and dish, uh, role.
19:59
Um, and if the Mavericks pivot away from having two on Tatum, if, if that unlocks him a little bit offensively, it wouldn't shock me.
20:06
So, um, yeah, you're, you're kind of left with nothing but bad options here if you're a Mav- Ma- if you're the Mavericks coaching staff.
20:13
And, um, I think you're just crossing your fingers that the switch to the venue helps with your shooting, uh, and you get some of that role player, uh, home cooking, uh, where those guys just play better because, um, you need the Celtics to, to take a step backwards and your team to take a step forward to close the gap, in my opinion.
20:33
Uh, five and thirty-one. Five and thirty-one is the all-time record for teams, uh, trying to overcome a two to nothing deficit in the history of the NBA Finals, five and thirty-one.
20:44
Again, the last team to do so, the twenty twenty-one Bucks with Giannis against Phoenix.
20:48
Uh, the LeBron Cavaliers, who can forget that, against Golden State, where Golden State went scoreless in the last four forty of game seven. LeBron with the iconic block of Andre Iguodala's shot.
20:58
Um, the Heat in two thousand six, Bill Walton's Blazers in nineteen seventy-seven, and the Celtics in nineteen sixty-nine. In each one of those five cases,
21:06
the team that was down two to nothing lost the first two on the road. So this is, you know, this would-- If the Mavericks are able to do it, this is still the formula, if you will, to do so.
21:18
Obviously, you don't want to be part of this formula, but it's, it's how the other five got there as well.
21:23
Um, and let me just ask this in the last minute, and we'll, we'll talk other sports here on the other side, but just from a, a non-betting, from a historical standpoint.
21:29
The Celtics now, when you put regular season and postseason record together, are seventy-eight and twenty, and I know they had the royal flush of injuries that they played here in the playoffs.
21:38
[laughs] Um, but if they end up, let's say it's a gentleman's sweep, if they end up eighty and twenty-one, do you rank this, like per your numbers, do you rank this as one of the great teams of all time, or is it just a team that was really good that just had a lot of good fortune as well?
21:54
I, I mean, on paper, they are a super team. [laughs] We, we, I think we've even made these, this commentary on this show.
22:02
Uh, but, uh, from the start of the season, you put the pieces together and the ratings together, there's n- there's no minuses.
22:08
Everybody's a plus on both sides of the floor except for Al Horford is a small minus offensively. Everyone else is a plus on both sides of the floor who batters, and that's crazy.
22:18
Uh, and you know, it's just from a roster building standpoint, it's the perfect roster for this day and age in the NBA, and the fact that they weren't tested, I think, just afforded us opportunities to get prices on the finals that, uh, were pretty obscene, I think, in hindsight.
22:32
You don't think all those Warriors team crushed them? [laughs] I'm just curious. I do. Like, in my head, the way I remember it, but you know, we'll never know. We'll never know.
22:40
I don't know that, I don't know that they'll be all-time great, but- Yeah... but, uh, they, they are a super team on paper. Okay. We'll come back. Drew on tennis and golf and more next.
22:48
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23:25
Skill Alexander, Kelly Middle live from Bar Canada at The D here in downtown Las Vegas. It is a numbers game.
23:30
Drew Dintzi kind enough to join us for a second segment at whale_capper on Twitter, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. Again, the podcasts are The Deep Dive and NBC Sports Bet the Edge. Um, Drew, I am curious about your
23:44
sort of autopsy on your, your French Open and really clay season. Any lessons learned? How'd it go for you? Well, ego won. [laughs] That was a- That she did... that was a deep exhale. Yes.
23:57
[laughs] Uh, you know, need, needed it. Um- Needed it... yeah, the, uh, yeah, uh, that was, uh, uh, that was kind of the key takeaway of the entire, you know, clay cy- you know, clay cycle.
24:09
Uh, four French Opens now for Iga, no end in sight. Um, the fact that the
24:15
most stringent test came from Naomi Osaka mattered a lot because that kind of helps you understand how to price this fall, which is probably co-favorite Iga and Naomi for the US Open and then second tier Sabalenka, Coco.
24:30
Yeah. Um, and then the Rybakina Takeaways are all negative out of this until she kind of changes her coaching team strategy.
24:42
I don't know that I'm really buying into her finding the form that got her to a Wimbledon championship. Um- What's going, what's going on with her? She's, like, really surly in, in interviews, and then she looks gaunt.
24:54
I don't know. I don't like it, though. Yeah. I get just... I, I just get m- th- there are, there are countless, um, examples of women athletes who have
25:06
questionable relationships with their older male coaches, and she falls into that category for me. Oh, wow.
25:11
And it's probably having some kind of negative ef- effect on her just, you know, preparation, performance, personal life, who knows?
25:20
Um, but, uh, yeah, until she moves on from that guy, I think, uh, she's a pass, uh- Oh... at slam level. So that's interesting. So y- I agree with you. Swiatek, Osaka, first tier for US Open. But what about Wimbledon?
25:32
I brought this up with you a couple weeks ago. If you recall- Yeah... I said, this is before Novak's injury, I said, "You know, he, the Olympics might mean more to him." The Olympics are right after Wimbledon.
25:42
This also applies to, to Iga, by the way, where, for her, you know, you go back to Chatrier, you win a gold medal, easy-peasy by comparison. And then you have the other competitors, right?
25:53
Who are like, "Well, I don't wanna really try to mess with Iga in that. Maybe I should really go full bore in Wimbledon." Does that mess up Wimbledon for you to some degree, from a handicapping standpoint, all of that?
26:03
I mean, it's a little challenging, for sure. Uh, the, um, the weather and the conditions in August in Paris are even more favorable for Iga on that surface. That's right.
26:14
So I don't think that there's realistically anyone who's winning the gold outside of Iga- Right... at, uh, in Paris.
26:21
Um, Wimbledon is a tougher question 'cause, again, you know, you have this w- h- wicked short run-up, um, on the, uh, on the grass.
26:29
You don't really get a ton of data to help you understand who is improving, you know, whose game is, uh, you know, peaking for Wimbledon.
26:36
Um, there are not as many specialists on grass as there are on clay that you have to worry about.
26:42
Um, and you look at, uh, you know, just sort of a relatively flat earth o- on the women's side compared to what was, you know, just a huge, you know, just a c- a, a monster in Iga versus the field on, on the clay.
26:55
So, um, it's a much tougher pricing, and I think, uh, you know, it's basically wide open.
27:00
Um, they have obviously slowed down the grass at Wimbledon considerably to where it's not as, uh, you know, not as different as, you know, the faster hard courts that are kind of being played regularly on the, uh, women's tour.
27:12
So, um, I think Iga's probably, you know, should be the favorite there. I don't necessarily agree with the market pricing.
27:19
Um, and, you know, Sabalenka, I'm perfectly fine giving her more of a pass than Rybakina for the way that she exited French Open. Uh, she pretty obviously had some sort of viral ailment- She did...
27:30
that, uh, I think afflicted a lot of players. Casper Ruud. Uh, Casper Ruud inclusive. Yep. Uh, yes.
27:36
Um, but, uh, yeah, the, uh, you know, so the women's side of the Wimbledon, I would say there are probably six runners who all deserve realistic consideration, and they're, you know, they're the top players on tour, uh, plus Ons Jabeur.
27:48
Okay, let's get to, uh, the US Open at Pinehurst this week. You usually enter Calcutas. Yeah. [laughs] Do you have any, do you have any other bets currently on this?
27:57
No, I, I, I'm still licking my wounds from the Masters. I think I've, uh, I'm, I'm finally kind of cured from, uh, just bleeding money in the, in the golf pools at this point. Okay.
28:06
[laughs] Um, especially in a world where Scottie is so dominant here. Yes.
28:10
I mean, I, you know, it, it, it's one thing to kind of handicap a field when there is relative m- small margins r- at the top [laughs] of the board.
28:20
But when you have this type of situation, it just becomes a whole different beast. And I, you know, I don't really know that, um...
28:26
I, I guess as I look at the odds board right now, I take no exception at all to Scottie being in the 3/1 range at the top.
28:32
Uh, and the margin between Scottie and then, and tier two with, uh, Xander and Rory, I think is fair. Um, I'm not ki- I'm not anywhere as hot on the market as, as Xander is, at all.
28:44
Uh, similarly Rory, I don't think either of them really stand out to me as likely winners here. Um, and, uh, you know, the, the support for the LIV guys is also somewhat stunning.
28:54
Uh, I know Bryson has been good on, and, you know, in the slam, uh, you know, in the majors, uh, so far this year. But, uh, 20/1 feels like an aggressive price for Bryson.
29:05
Similarly, Brooks has not shown the same level that we saw from him last year. So, uh, those two prices surprise me. Uh, Rahm 25/1 surprises me.
29:13
His game is just completely, uh, airmailed, uh, relative to what you saw from him making the jump to LIV. So, um, yeah, that, that whole group of guys is a pass.
29:21
Um, the only kind of long shot insane play I took was, uh, Jordan Spieth in the 66/1 range, just because I just don't...
29:29
He's got such a, um, uh, he, he's, he's one of the players that have such a wide delta on performance on a given, in a given round, in a given, uh, tournament that, uh, I just don't think you can have him in the, sort of the 66/1 range.
29:44
Um, but, uh, again, like, he could also finish dead last, and I wouldn't be shocked considering the form that he's in right now. So, uh, yeah, big, uh, you know, taking some swings there.
29:53
Pinehurst is a tough, um, you know, Pinehurst is a, is a tough course. I don't think anyone who's, cares about golf doesn't already know that.
30:02
Um, and I think the, the mo- most interesting thing to sit down and watch this week is gonna be can Scottie finish under par? [laughs] Because his putter is obviously the one weakness that he's got in his entire arsenal.
30:14
Uh, and this course is going to test that, uh, you know, to the degree that we haven't seen in a while for Scottie. So excited to specifically watch that part of this tournament.
30:23
And other than that, I'm, I'm just gonna be a fan. All right. Uh, we're w- g- every time you come on now, 'cause we're ramping up to the Olympics, Kelly and I get excited- Mm-hmm... when you come on 'cause you're- Ooh...
30:33
you're Mr. Olympics. Uh, people should know that. And Yet though yesterday we were like, we got excited then we're like, "Oh, it's still like six, seven weeks away. Geez, we're talking Drew."
30:42
[laughs] You know, like it, it was immediately tempered. However, um, do you have any pearls of wisdom here in any sport- Sure... this far out? Sure.
30:51
Well, yeah, I mean, I, I'm, I'm literally, uh, you know, highly ramped up into swimming right now. Swimming, uh, US trials start on Saturday.
30:59
Um, they will be on Peacock at 8:00 in the morning qualifying, uh, for us on the Pacific Coast, and then, uh, finals are gonna be at 5:00 PM every day.
31:08
So you're gonna get to watch all the swimming that you, your, your heart desires, um, you know, live from Lucas Oil Stadium, where they put a temporary pool on the Colts field. Wow. Uh, and they have...
31:19
And honestly, like, I like, I was like, "Well, this is very cool." They usually do it in Omaha. They usually have... It's usually a very cool setup, but, and tickets are hard to come by.
31:28
Um, and now they're putting it in a football stadium. I was like, "Oh man, the tickets are gonna be cheap. There's gonna be plenty of them. I may actually go to Indy." Uh, no, tickets are expensive, and they've sold out.
31:36
[laughs] Like, people are very, very fired up for this. Uh, and they're all gonna be there in Indy at, on the, uh, uh, in the dome, uh, watching the swimming.
31:44
So, uh, that starts on Saturday, goes for a week, and, uh, the US trials, uh, are gonna be pretty telling in terms of just in general what to expect out of the US swimmers.
31:53
There's been a ton of disruption with, um, kind of coaches moving, uh, college programs in the run-up here, which has disrupt- you know, kind of just throwing a little bit of a monkey wrench in our program overall, um, on top of the fact that the world has caught up to us pretty succ- you know, substantially.
32:08
The US used to dominate swimming. You used to be able to count on about, um, you know, a, a, a, a, a metal, uh, per event, uh, and a gold one out of every three events.
32:18
And, um, you know, the, the Aussies in the women's side caught us and passed us, uh, in terms of the quality and depth of their program.
32:26
Um, and then on the men's side, uh, phew, France has, uh, you know, uh, this wunderkind who, you know, the French Michael Phelps.
32:33
He's not gonna win relays because their team isn't de- as deep as when Phelps was going for seven and eight gold medals. But, um, uh, Marchand, uh, is this, uh, you know, French- Victor Wembeniama... the French Phelps...
32:44
I'll tell you how you pronounce it, yeah. Yeah, he's [laughs] Yes, he's the, he's the Wembeniama of swimming.
32:49
Uh, and he has a chance to pick up three or four gold medals in some of the, uh, the, the IM butterfly and breaststroke events, which is really kind of an unusual combination.
32:58
But he is a, he is a dynamite, uh, uh, swimmer for the, uh, French, for the Frogs. Um, and, uh, I think, uh, you know, the Chinese extremely g- good coming into this cycle.
33:10
Um, and, uh, it's going to be a, a very, very level field, uh, and exciting to see if the men can, if the US, uh, team broadly can step up at the trials next week. All right. We'll ramp up the Olympics talk next week.
33:22
But let's, uh, file that name away. Leon Marchand, spelled, uh, for the American as Leon March and. [laughs] Leon Marchand. Good job, Gil. Thank you. Thanks very much. That's what I'm here for. Leon Marchand.
33:34
That's right. Thank you, Drew. Appreciate it, man. All right. Best of luck, guys. Drew, who swam competitively at Duke, by the way. Coming back.
33:50
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33:53
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34:02
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34:14
Ladies and gentlemen, I like to call this segment Kelly Bidlin Handicaps the Stanley Cup Final. Kelly? [laughs] Floor is yours. Uh, you've got it, uh, Gil. You've got it. No problem.
34:27
I'm just, uh, all I'm gonna say is when you're going up with a goaltender situation like this, okay? Yeah, uh-huh. You got some great goaltenders in the NHL. Okay, name them. Connor Hellebuyck. Mm-hmm. Sergei Bobrovsky.
34:37
Igor Shesterkin. Sure. Jake Oettinger. Stu Skinner. Stu Skinner. I, I can't get there on Stu Skinner. [laughs] Uh, j- j- the name just doesn't fit with the rest of them, uh, Gil. Just doesn't fit. There it is.
34:50
Edmonton's got no shot. Stu. Stu Skinner. Actually, I've even been calling him the professional Stuart Skinner, but then I heard on the broadcast last night Stu dropped a couple times.
34:58
[sighs] You know- Gotta pick it up, Stewie... also, right, hockey becomes very, what do we say about the NBA? We just need, we need access to the three-point scoring stats. In hockey, what do we always say?
35:08
You know, the, the old adage of you just need the hot goaltender. If you can't put the puck by the... Fir- first of all, you gotta take more than seven shots in the first two periods, right? Right.
35:17
But then if you can't put the biscuit in the basket, period, right? Besides the one that slipped by him yesterday, which is sort of a weak goal. S- Still trying to figure out how they stand on their head, so it's...
35:26
That has its origins. Just don't know how you physically do that. I once went down that rabbit hole as well. Um, want some US Open, uh- Oh, yes... injury updates here. Please.
35:35
So John Rahm, um, Drew brought him up last segment. If you've been, uh, paying attention to the golf world, he had to withdraw from the Liv event last week.
35:44
He is dealing, what they were calling w- at the time, was an infection in his toe. Forced him to withdraw. There was a video of him in, in very much pain after a shot that was circulating around social media.
35:55
Um, he has just arrived to Pinehurst, showed up for his media that was supposed to start at 10:30 Eastern, 7:30 Pacific Time. He is talking with the media right now.
36:04
Uh, he has showed up wearing one shoe and one sandal, Gil. Um, he is- One shoe and one sandal. Yes, to rest the toe for, for c- toe comfort, I guess.
36:15
Um, he said it is not, uh, described it as a lesion between his pinky toe and fourth toe that got infected. So this is what John Rahm is dealing with. Quote from John Rahm, "It's a concern.
36:27
It's doing better, but definitely still in pain." Um, so monitor that with John Rahm this week. I really didn't, this was something I was already gonna be paying close attention to.
36:38
I thought better chance than not that he just didn't go. Now that he's at the course and, and he has not played a pla- a practice round, uh, yet, he... This is his first day here. He was not there at all yesterday.
36:51
Um, this might be, have to be a scary load up against John Rahm next week. Fade away. Yeah. [laughs] Yeah. Fade away. Uh, total rookie move on my part. I went ahead and Googled toe lesion or lesion between the toes.
37:02
I wish I hadn't done that. So glad you did, 'cause I'm not going to now. Yeah, wish I hadn't done that. Yeah, he was, uh, yeah, when he withdrew over the weekend, he, he was in major pain. So I, I don't...
37:11
I mean, it's John Rahm, so, you know, f- like, this sounds so bad. Fortunately, as a bettor, you think he's gonna tough it out, try to tough it out as much as he can probably. Uh, just be careful with your bets.
37:22
Obviously they're gonna all gonna be voided, canceled if he doesn't, if he doesn't tee off. But as soon as he tees off, everything's live.
37:28
Uh, first segment of the show I mentioned, 'cause we were talking about betting markets and how you shouldn't be swayed by, you know, strange one-off betting markets at, say, a BetOnline or a Bovada offshore where, you know, uh, Hurley, Dan Hurley to be the next coach of the Lakers soars to minus 400.
37:44
That doesn't mean anything. And I mentioned to Kelly, I don't know if you caught this, uh, in the first segment where I was like, "Well, you know, on the one hand, um, was it overblown?
37:52
On the other hand, some people think, like, it wasn't really a story at all and that Woj has ties, um, I think similar agents, that kind of thing, and he just sort of manufactured the story being bigger than it ever was.
38:07
And I guess part and parcel with that, the Lakers interest wasn't quite as high as it was being drummed up to be. Well, now Shams, Shams Charania is killing Woj, killing him, that it was Redick all along.
38:21
It's always been Redick. It's still Redick. It never wasn't Redick, and it's all one big, one big shams. Shams isn't excluding Borrego.
38:28
Yeah, he, he's, he's, he's, he's not, he's not excluding Borrego either, but yes, he is, uh. He's saying it's all Redick. The Shams versus Woj stuff has been entertaining. I love it. That's for sure.
38:37
Um, College World Series, Georgia did not get there. Every time they, um, made a move on NC State yesterday, NC State had the answer. Uh, Georgia could not get a big hit. And so, um,
38:50
four ACC teams and four SEC teams in the College World Series, which begins on Friday. ACC. ACC. And, um- That's how this works, right? Uh, yeah. [laughs] Not gonna stop with that, with the SEC chant.
39:04
So I, the only one that I have is the first one I made, which is FSU back in several months. Let's go, baby. They were seven ohs. That's the only one I got live too. Let's go.
39:10
We'll get, we'll get some College World Series, uh- Yes... guys on this week to talk about this. Yeah, absolutely. And we do have the updated odds. Yes. Uh, if we wanna take a look at those quick. Do that.
39:18
Um, as I'm struggling to pull up. Um, updated odds right now for the College World Series.
39:24
Tennessee plus 290, Texas A&M plus 330, Kentucky plus 500, North Carolina plus 600, Florida State plus 750, Virginia nine to one, NC State 11 to one, Florida then 12 to one bringing up the rear.
39:38
Look, Florida was the only one of those eight that was not one of the top 16 seeds. Um, so they are the long shot there at 12 to one, and Tennessee was always the number one seed, so they're plus 290.
39:47
I feel like they're dogging our, our Florida State squad a little bit in these odds, man. Like, I mean, Virginia, NC State, Florida kinda weren't supposed to be here, right?
39:55
But wasn't Florida State was maybe a little bit on the edge, but- Well, on the edge, right. On the edge. Still, still can get plus 750 on them. Uh, okay.
40:04
Uh, and then by the way, the other thing that happened last night, the Astros, my Astros boast wins in June thing. Giants magic got them last night. The Astros- Oh, gosh...
40:13
on the heels of a game where they were leading by two in the eighth, and they gacked it. They gack a two run lead in the 10th yesterday to Giants magic, so that wasn't good. But, you know, ironic. Giants magic got me.
40:23
Mm. Wanna do, uh, speaking of baseball, wanna shout out to this guy, uh, Wishnow. Todd Wishnow is the guy who may be aware of this.
40:29
This is, uh, the, the name of the account, again, I don't know if this is like a base, uh, Brooks. Was it, uh, Brooks Baseball, Baseball by Brooks back in the day?
40:38
Um, but this is Brooks Gate, and they've got some great stuff, and it's just again a way of saying that in handicapping
40:46
what you're trying to do is look at sports in a way that what's sustainable, what's not, what is, what is real, what's not. That's why Mark Borchardt and I do the Q1 and the Q2 and the Q3 derivative. What is narrative?
40:57
What is predictive? So here's just a, a, a handful of tweets from Brooks Gate that put baseball in perspective. This one, how many times your starting pitcher has pitched seven plus innings in a game.
41:09
Uh, for those who can't see this graphic, let's just point out that a bunch of these are, are sort of, uh, I'd say 27, 26 of baseball's 30 teams are between the numbers four and 12. Mm-hmm.
41:22
Four to 12 times that, uh, starting pitchers have pitched seven plus innings in a game. There are, [laughs] there are only two teams that soar above 12. That is the, um, the Atlanta Braves. Is that right there? Yeah.
41:35
Braves at 18. Let me check. The Atlanta Braves with 16. Yeah, Braves at 18. 16. 16. Sorry, Kelly.
41:40
16 times, and at 20 times the Philadelphia Phillies, 20 times as their starting pitchers, uh, go on seven plus innings a game. And that makes sense, right?
41:50
That one makes sense because it's the Phillies, and there's Nola, um, and there's Wheeler, and there's, um, and there's Suarez, and so they've got great starting pitching. Yeah. That makes sense.
42:01
The one that doesn't make sense, and I'll ask Spohrer about this, the very bottom, the Milwaukee Brewers, only two. [laughs] That is wild. I would never have expected that from the Brewers. Yeah.
42:09
That's probably the most fascinating part about that graphic. I mean, the Phillies, it's been every- everybody on the staff except for Taijuan Walker, right? Yeah.
42:15
It's, it's the, it's been the best starting rotation in baseball for sure. Here's another one. This is all for the Yankees lovers out here. This is a very straightforward one. It doesn't even have a graphic.
42:24
The Yankees pitching staff has their lowest K per nine, Ks per nine since 2015, so their lowest strikeout rate- Okay... since 2015 and their highest walk rate since 2010. Those are both bad things, right? Correct.
42:38
Lowest K rate since 2015. This is the Yankees pitching staff as a whole, since 2015, and the highest walk rate since 2010, and yet they also lead Major League Baseball in ERA.
42:50
So this is fascinating because for all the Yankees love that's out there, what this portends, and I get it, Gerrit Cole's coming around the mountain, so I get it. There's reinforcements coming. But to this point,
43:03
as a collective, that stuff doesn't jibe, and the Yankees p- and the Yankees pitching staff has been on the, uh, right side of good fortune. Let's put it that way. They've been on the good fortune side.
43:15
Because you can't have... That's not sustainable over the long haul. But again, what's the caveat? Here comes Gerrit Cole. This makes my brain hurt.
43:23
I didn't read this close enough, uh, earlier this morning when you sent this to me. Uh, that, that, that is shocking. It w- it's wild. Well, th- I, I mean, so what, I mean, w- it's defense and luck?
43:33
Uh, it's all of the above. Yeah. [laughs] Right? Like that's- Defense and luck... that's it, right? Yeah. Well, it's- Wow...
43:37
it, and, and this gets back to, again, our point last year about, and again, we weren't, we didn't win it in the end, but I hope people understand the point of it, which is why
43:45
the Blake Snell thing winning the Cy Young, by the way, Blake Snell's performance this year is sort of corroboration of this. Yeah. Um, Blake Snell's Houdini act last year was historic. It was epic.
43:58
You cannot continue to have a soaring, uh, bases on balls rate.
44:03
You can't issue walks at such a high rate, and then keep having a Houdini act and having a historic strand rate, which remember we invoked the name of John Candelaria of the Pirates in the '70s as the only strand rate that was higher than Snell's last year in modern baseball history.
44:20
But these are the interesting things about baseball. Is the performance real to date? Is it sustainable? That would indicate that Yankees stat that it is not. But Cole is coming. Golf next.
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