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Jun 11, 2024
A Numbers Game | June 11, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | June 11, 2024 | Hour 2
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in this morning, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander.
0:18
It is Kelly Bidlin, everybody, producer, number nine, and as we learned last hour, quite the hockey handicapper. Quite the hockey handicapper. Stuart Skinner. He can't possibly win the Stanley Cup. Minus Olmark.
0:30
Uh, still to come this hour, Paul Spore on baseball.
0:33
I'm gonna, uh, throw some of those Brooksgate, uh, tweets that we mentioned and some still to come at him, see what he thinks about that, including that strange Milwaukee Brewers starting thing.
0:43
Uh, so we'll get into some baseball. We'll also talk NBA finals, MVP. Kelly will have his US Open thoughts at Pinehurst as well. A pre long shots preview. You gonna, like, give up the farm on this show before long shots?
0:54
You can't do that. No, see, what's, what's so great is I can't even if I wanted to, Gil, because, you know, Vegas still ha- doesn't have, like, odds posted, so, you know, it's fun.
1:03
[laughs] Ladies and gentlemen, when we get legalized wagering, sports wagering here in the state of Nevada, this is gonna be one heck of a place to live. Watch out. One heck of a place.
1:13
Uh, we are really thrilled to have our next guest on with us, first time on the show. Uh, he is, uh, multiple accolades.
1:20
First of all, he's a golfer in his own right, which we can get into, but he's the host of the Back Nine Bets podcast, senior contributor at Rollerballer PGA.
1:27
It's Byron Lindiquie, everybody, joining us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Byron? I am doing amazing, guys. First time caller, longtime listener. [laughs] Happy to be on the show.
1:37
You know, I've always wanted to say that about a nice show that I've really admired and, and really learned so much stuff from you guys, so hoping I can bring a little bit of my niche market to, to the people that you guys service so generously.
1:49
Oh, that's so nice of you to say. By the way, you're at The Model Maniac. I love that Twitter handle, The Model Maniac, proudly displaying the South African flag over, uh, his left shoulder there.
1:59
Um, let us start, first of all, the, the golf a- the golf resume that you have real quick. You play the sport of golf, and you did so to some degree, right? I did.
2:09
I came over as a nice, strapping youngster from South Africa and found myself at William Penn University trying to play in a different country, and realizing that South African golf is totally different to Iowa.
2:22
And the wind, they put pretty much golf courses wherever they couldn't put a farm, and that's just the hilliest place possible, and it's, it's been a fun experience, and kinda just bringing that over to the betting side of things now is, is a fun, fun little nuance that I can bring.
2:36
It's a beautiful thing.
2:37
So Kelly and I, we, we were texting before the show, uh, yesterday actually, and, uh, he was talking about a, uh, Pat Mayo podcast that you did where you were talking about just sort of looking back on your season, finishing position bets from the entire season, odds related to them, and some sort of macro things that you revealed.
2:57
So before we get to your US Open thoughts here at Pinehurst, maybe that's a nice entree into this. You think that that revealed something that, that is related here. Correct.
3:06
There were, there were two instances where I kind of noticed the ties paid in full in golf betting, when you're looking to bet top 20s and top 10s, can really get nasty. You know, dead heats can ruin your Sunday.
3:17
Oh, yeah. They can ruin your Thursday as well. You know, those first round leaders- [laughs]... they get chopped, baby. Um, so trying to find a way to avoid having your, your hard-earned profits.
3:27
Golf betting, you're betting on a bunch of weirdos and freaks that kind of you never know what they're gonna show up like. They don't know what they're gonna do.
3:33
So you need to make sure that when you capitalize, you capitalize and, and ties paid in full really helps those T- T-19s pay out full for your, your, your T-20 bets.
3:41
And I kinda noticed that the, the way the odds kind of worked, the more negative the odds were, the, the more profitable you'd be if you went without ties paid in full and kind of enjoyed the dead heat risk.
3:55
But because the odds of the bet were kind of a little more negative, implying a bit more of a higher than a 50% rate of implied probability,
4:04
you, you tend to find that the dead heat rules weren't applied to those specific bets as much as the plus money, plus 150, plus 200, because those kind of golfers are gonna be flirting with the upper tier of the dead heat reduction range, versus if you're betting somewhat minus 150, minus 175, they, they tend to find themselves like minus...
4:23
Or like T12 in a top 20 market kind of thing, and, and kind of avoid those dead heat reductions just because they're that much better of a golfer. And I've really taken this market by,
4:34
by the Scottie Scheffler horns, because he's kind of taken the golf market by storm.
4:39
He's been robbing us of outright profit, and trying to capitalize on Scottie Scheffler's incredible form right now is tricky, because everything about Scottie Scheffler, he's 3-1 to win a, a US Open, which is what Tiger Woods was kind of doing.
4:52
He's negative 115 to finish top five in a, a 156-man field. I'm all about taking negative odds on Scottie Scheffler.
5:00
If you're looking at Scottie Scheffler over the last year, he's returned, if you're looking to bet $100 to make $100 off a bet for Scottie Scheffler, he's returned over $1,000 in the last 12 months in the top five and top 10 market.
5:15
Uh, the top 20 market also, but you're gonna be really having to lay some serious juice there. But I've enjoyed it.
5:21
I, I cashed in a minus 260 bet on him last week when he, when he won the tournament again, and pretty much subsidized my entire outright card.
5:28
So that's how I'm kind of using Scottie Scheffler to protect myself from himself. We were having this discussion off air.
5:33
You said there's a bit of reticence in the golf markets to put minus money on these players to begin with, so I guess what you're saying is inherent, there's still tons of value on Scheffler.
5:43
Is that what you're getting at? I would say so, yes. I think any... You gotta just make sure that you're figuring out, like, the implied probabilities of all of this stuff.
5:51
I, I keep track of, of what Scottie's, you know, historical T10, T20 rates are, and there's edges, and the way certain s- courses, obviously, you kind of mix guys in, and there's the specific venues that kind of suit them better.
6:04
But Scottie is so bulletproof, you can just pretty much play him anywhere, and to me-
6:09
When you're betting on one of the best golfers in the world, you're kind of finding yourself making a bit more money than usual because of those negative odds.
6:15
You gotta put your pride in your pocket and just bet those negative odds on Scottie Scheffler. All right, so Byron, then, uh, break down the US Open for us.
6:22
What, uh, characteristics are you looking for in golfers, and how did you end up betting this? Okay. So the characteristics I'm looking for are everything.
6:31
[laughs] Whatever you can bring to the party, you're gonna need this week because it's gonna be hell. It's gonna be difficult, it's gonna be crispy, it's gonna be slick, it's gonna be hot.
6:40
You're gonna have to make sure that you can have mental resiliency. You wanna make sure you can kind of bounce back from bogeys.
6:46
You gotta be very comfortable with not even making a birdie, potentially, on a specific day. So I think you're looking for a mental...
6:54
You're not looking for mental midgets, you're looking for mental monstrosities this week, and I think trying to find that is the hardest part because you can't really model a mental aspect of a golfer's mind.
7:05
But, you know, watching like we do, you know, ESPN Plus, you can watch 12 hours of golf a day, uh, four days a week.
7:12
And it's, it's a great time to kind of use your eyes to kind of make those decisions for weeks like this, where modeling is a bit more difficult because there's so many important areas of the game that are necessary this week that you can't really clump specific types of golfers into certain buckets.
7:27
I think ball strikers will succeed if they're elite in that department. I think scramblers, short game specialists like Cam Smith will be chipping and putting their way to, to incredible results if things go right.
7:38
I think you can find many avenues to victory, and we've seen this in the past with, with the likes of Payne Stewart and, and the, and Michael Campbell, et cetera, you know?
7:46
So it's a, it's a golf course that allows many golfers to kind of participate in the pursuit of a US Open Championship. What outrights did you land on? Oh, boy. Okay.
7:57
So I've gone with outrights that pay each ways to a three-place market because
8:03
my outrights are gonna be going up against Scottie most likely, and I wanna make sure that I'm getting subsidized if my guy finishes a runner-up to the man. So I've gone Collin Morikawa at 20 to one, three places.
8:15
I've gone Sahith Theegala. I got that as a, a 60 to one bet right now. I've been in on Brooks. I think Brooksie at 25, 22 to one right now on the markets is...
8:25
Brooks Koepka is a five-time major champion, and he specializes in US Opens and PGA Championship. These are what he does.
8:33
It's the only two majors I think he's won, and he also really thrives, his, like, brainstem really gets lit up when a golf course is difficult. That's why he kind of struggled at the PGA when it got to minus 21.
8:45
But Brooksie, I, I'm liking his chances this week. He's, he's always a threat in majors, and 25 to one is just a ridiculous number on a five-time major champion. So I think I'm a fan of that. Um, Tom Kim.
8:58
If you think about Tom Kim, he's out there in the 90s and the 80s, depending on where you find that. He's incredible in majors. He's a youngster.
9:05
He's only turning 22 later this June, so he'll be playing this tournament in his second US Open as a 21-year-old, and he's been incredible.
9:13
He finished second at the Open Championship, and I'm looking for guys that have top 10 records in majors because that's what you need to win these, these things. And, and having major experience is essential.
9:23
Tom Kim, in his infancy, really does have that already now. So there's lots of good golfers that I'm really in the mood for.
9:28
I think I've got some Keegan Bradley as well because I've just bet these guys in this 25 to 60, 80 range, hoping that these placements pay out, hoping Scottie stumbles across the line and, and one of these guys can get it taken care of for us.
9:42
All right, Morikawa, Theegala, Koepka, Tom Kim, Keegan Bradley, uh, those mentioned here by Byron Lindiquist. We got about, uh, 90 seconds left, Byron. Uh, top fives, top 10s, match-ups, first-round bets.
9:55
What else did you do? Absolutely. Let's go ahead and do a Hideki Matsuyama top 30 at even money. I got that at plus 115 earlier. He's been doing this.
10:06
In US Opens, Hideki Matsuyama has gained more strokes on approach than Scottie Scheffler has this year, so that's incredible. I think he's gonna do wonderful things there.
10:15
If I'm taking a look at some other bets I've made, I wanna go into the market with, um, like I mentioned, Scottie Scheffler. I'm, I'm betting him top 10 at minus 190, minus 200. I'm totally cool with that bet.
10:27
So going there is fine. And then Sahith Theegala, if you're looking for a little bit of a long shot fun bet, plus 900, Sahith Theegala for a top five. He's a flashy golfer.
10:37
He's got that ability to kind of just really dig in deep and, and make some, make something happen for us. So plus 900, Sahith Theegala. 9-1 on Theegala top five.
10:47
Um, and then real quick, is there a golfer that, to use the horse racing term, is a throwout for you, someone who you just absolutely have no interest in backing in any way? Sam Burns has got five PGA Tour victories.
10:59
He's got one top 20 in a major, and it was a T20. That just doesn't make any sense to me. I bet Cameron Young against, uh, Sam Burns last week.
11:08
Cam Young just made the cut, sucked it up, but still beat Sam because Sam missed another major cut. Byron Lindiquist, host of Back Nine Bets podcast, senior contributor at RotoBaller PGA. Byron, a pleasure, man.
11:20
Thanks so much for making the time. Thank you so much, guys. Thank you so much for having me. Byron Lindiquist. And the, and the accent, the South African accent, uh, means more to me, quite frankly.
11:31
Just makes our show s- uh, sound way more intelligent, you know? Yeah. Erudite, if you will. Yes. Stu Skinner. [laughs] That's right. We appreciate that from Byron.
11:40
Coming back, uh, NBA Finals, MVP talk, more of these, uh, Brooks baseball nuggets as well. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:57
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Numbers game presented by Zyn nicotine pouches, America's number one nicotine pouch. Find out more at zyn.com.
12:06
From groan-worthy dad jokes, Kelly, to patching up skinned knees, your dad is one of a kind. Yours specifically, Kelly. Oh, yeah.
12:13
This Father's Day, give him a gift that's guaranteed to take him to his happy place, Omaha Steaks.
12:18
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12:29
Visit omahasteaks.com and use promo code VSIN at checkout. You said you'd already gotten him Omaha Steaks in past, uh, years- Mm-hmm... for Father's Day. If he, if he got it again, would he be equally happy?
12:41
Yes, he would. Yes, he would. My dad's, uh, he's a big grill guy. Big grill guy. Big grill guy. Big grill. Thad Midlan, big grill guy. You kidding me? Thad Midlan. Thad Midlan. [laughs] Big grill guy. Thad Midlan.
12:52
He's such a big grill guy, Gil, that he's the guy that will show up at a game and, uh, he'll ta- he'll tailgate for three-plus hours beforehand. He might miss half the game before he gets in there. That's your dad.
13:03
Thad Midlan right there. God bless him. One of a kind. We got tweets. I beat to the book. Have I read any tweets today? Uh, Rich PSM, "Jeff Coleandro has shown up in my tweets this morning." Remember Jeff? Yeah.
13:12
Jeff used to do NASCAR with us. Uh, Rich PSM says, "I actually bet NASCAR because Jeff was very effective. Never forget the there's no practice lapse factor during COVID.
13:21
I swear surviving early COVID was almost worse than pre-PASPA." Uh, Martin Bernstein, "Gil, Miami/Washington, Super Bowl 17 is on the NFL Network. I was at the game.
13:30
John Riggins running for a touchdown still makes me cry." Ah, the greatest moment in Skins history. Uh, Jesse Welch, "I still cannot get over the, how ridiculous the full medical name of Sky Rizzi is.
13:41
It sounds like a Swedish breakdancing team's name." You see they, uh, they, speaking of Sky Rizzi, did you see that they, uh, the Jardiance people went with a dude now? Yeah. Ah.
13:51
But, no, but, but, but the main star still makes an appearance at the end, doesn't she? Ah, that I saw. Oh, I thought she, like, I thought she- Maybe she did...
13:57
pops on at the end of the commercial to, like, read one line. I mean, main star. What, you mean the girl that replaced the first girl? Right, yes. Yeah, she was- She's not the main star, man. [laughs] That, that's fair.
14:07
That's fair. But that was the commercial that ran the longest. JasonAge11, "I think we need another episode of Kelly Guesses Is It a Tennis Player or a Hockey Player?" Oh, that's a good one. Oh, yeah, that is a good one.
14:17
That would be outstanding. That is a good one. Brandon Pierce, "We getting Carr on for big Euros breakdown soon?" Oh, good point. Oh, yeah, yeah. He's coming on. He's coming on, but you know, here's the thing.
14:24
I'm gonna lay the odds at, like, uh, what, minus 1,000 that he has Germany in some form. [laughs] Right. He already, he already told us that.
14:32
And Rick Olier, "I agree, the South African accent really adds a little flavor to the show. However, nothing will compare to the [laughs] to those fellows from the tournament down south.
14:42
Side note, what does, uh, Max Homa sound like with a South African accent?" Ah, still, anyway, w- remember the trampoline, when he cued the trampolines on Max Homa's approach shot? Yeah.
14:52
"Oh, this, we can't have this happen. Cue the trampoline springs." [laughs] Yep. Um, real quick, 'cause one of the things I wanna b- I don't wanna let this gloss over. Yeah.
15:00
One of the great things that Byron talked about early in that segment was what he learned about dead heats. Now, help me, because maybe I missed it, too.
15:09
Did he say that in retrospect when reviewing all of his dead heat numbers- Hmm... that, I don't even wanna guess 'cause I don't wanna mess it up. Yeah, yeah.
15:19
But it sounded like he said, like, going with more favorites- Yes... ended up working out better, and they avoided the dead heats, and that makes more sense, right?
15:27
So what, so what, w- uh, and encourage you to, to, to, to, uh, listen to the podcast he did with Pat Mayo on this, 'cause they talked about it for a, about an hour in depth on all this stuff.
15:35
Now, what he was talking about at the beginning there, right, it, w- is what I bring up all the time. If you wanna remove the headache, look for ties paid in full for the, for these markets. MGM. Y- MGM.
15:46
And now what, now what Byron's talking about, though, is that not always is that gonna be the best way to bet certain pl- uh, certain golfers, right? And specifically the guys that are the bigger favorites.
15:57
So what you'll see in dead heat shops is you're gonna get longer odds- Ah, yes... on essentially everybody, right? Everybody's priced a little bit longer than the shop that's gonna pay ties in full.
16:08
Um, now what happens is we all go crazy 'cause you see a plus 160 at a dead heat shop compared to a plus 120 at a ties paid in full shop, and you're like, "Well, I wanna bet the 160," and then you're pulling your hair out on Sunday when you're getting dead heated to death.
16:21
Yeah. So what he, what his research had come up with, basically was a lot of these guys that, okay, I'm betting Xander Schauffele for a top 10.
16:30
Maybe he's minus 120 this week, um, at a ties paid in full shop, and maybe he's plus 120 in a, uh, in a dead, a dead heat shop, right?
16:39
But those, that plus 120 at the dead heat shop was coming in f- uh, was still coming in because Xander would be finishing well inside the top five, as opposed to even flirting with that dead heating- Ah...
16:51
at the back end. So how- So the high-end golfers were outperforming- They were-... where they were in that market... they were avoiding the dead heats. Correct. Got it.
16:58
They were avoiding the dead heat situation so much that it made more sense to bet them at the dead heat shops. At the dead heat shop. There you go. Yeah. That's the explanation I was looking for.
17:07
Okay, so that makes sense.
17:08
So, so what he found in retrospect was that the really good golfers, the one that tended to be in minus money, they would avoid the dead heat at a rate high enough that justified playing them at dead heat shops. Correct.
17:22
And that's what, like, he mentioned- Got it... he, he mentioned Scottie Scheffler about minus 200.
17:26
Like, uh, top 10 this week, that, I think that's his favorite bet this week, uh, because he's confident Scheffler's gonna finish well inside and not even have to deal with the guys at the back end of the top 10.
17:35
Pro tip, pro tip. Mm-hmm. Pro tip. When was the last time we sung that jingle? It's been a while. It's been a while. Uh, NBA Finals, MVP.
17:44
We, uh, kind of glossed over this yesterday, too, 'cause we were talking about all kinds of stuff. Um, right now, of course, Celtics up two to nothing on the, uh, Dallas Mavericks.
17:52
Series headed back to Dallas tomorrow night. Remember, the schedule is this: game three tomorrow night, Wednesday night in Dallas at American Airlines Arena. Friday, game four.
18:03
So that's a, that's a reasonable, you know- Two-day break there, right? Like, one day in between. Yeah. But then, uh, nothing on the weekend, guys. If, if necessary, that is, right?
18:13
If Dallas can at least win one of these tomorrow night or Friday night, uh, they don't play game five in Boston at the, uh, TD Garden until Monday night. You know what's the weirdest part of that to me, actually?
18:23
It's always, it's always, it's the Friday night games, actually, always. That's an odd one. Yeah. That's always the oddest one to me. Right. 'Cause usually you don't see m- major sporting events go Friday night.
18:32
It, it's Sunday, Monday, like, that's really not that odd to me. Friday night's weird. The worst, though, is the Monday, Thursday, Sunday. Yeah. Like, if this series extends... Uh, my brother is not a big sports fan.
18:45
He's a, he's a football fan. He's one of these DC guys that's like he's a football fan, but he's not a s- fan of any other sport. But he knows what's going on, right? And he even texted me yesterday.
18:55
He's like, he's like, "Do people still care about basketball when there's this big of a wait?" It's a, like, it's a great window to someone who's n- who's a casual, like, even more, like, super-duper casual.
19:06
He's, like, checked out and complete- completely from this. Makes it tough.
19:09
I, I mean, hockey's a little bit like it, too, but it's, it's the, you know, it, it, it's weird where you, you kinda ride the wave with it, right?
19:15
The first round, the first round the scheduling's very similar, but you've got so many teams going. That's why they have to schedule it that way to fit in all the games.
19:25
But you don't really notice it 'cause there's still ga- multiple games going every single night. And then we get into the second and third round, where they're literally playing, you know, every other day, basically.
19:35
Um, so it, it, yes, it feels really slow when you get to this point, and especially when it feels like- Well-... you have this lopsided of a series... the break before the finals is the big thing, right? Yeah.
19:42
Like, setting the date, and no matter what happens earlier, and as we documented, these losing teams, and, you know, what is it, 1.29 did I say? 1.29, uh, games per losing team in these best-of-seven series.
19:55
So we had a massive break before the NBA finals with that date set in stone. So anyway, the MVP up for grabs still. Uh, if Boston wins, who's going to be the guy?
20:06
Is it Jayson Tatum, who remains [laughs] the short shot at plus 130? Jaylen Brown, who some folks got s- uh, thought got snubbed for the Larry Joe Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP. Jaylen Brown is plus 160. But he won.
20:19
Oh, excuse me, he won, pardon me. Yeah, yeah, he won. Yeah, yeah, Tatum got snubbed. Tatum be- S- Tatum, two people thought Tatum got snubbed It was a coin flip, yeah. It was a coin flip.
20:25
Brown gets the plus 160 here, so he's- But Jaylen Brown I think was shocked when he won it, actually. [laughs] Yeah, he was, actually. 'Cause he doesn't expect to get credit for anything these days.
20:33
Uh, Luka six to one is next, and then it is three more Celtics. Obviously they're up two to nothing, right? So it's Jrue at plus 750, which I still think is the bet to make here. Yeah, me too.
20:45
Porziņģis 40 to one [laughs] and Derrick White 50 to one. The next available Maverick, outside of Dončić, is Kyrie at 100 to one. Remember, Kyrie was as low as, like, 13 to one before the series started. Yeah.
21:01
Um, so again, we've just called our shot. We both think it's Jrue. I mean, look, if he has- If you're making one bet right now, it should be plus 750 on Jrue. Yeah. It, it, you know, shop around.
21:11
I think what I brought, what I, what I said yesterday I still stand by, where I'd probably put a bet
21:17
on Jaylen Brown if you can find odds a little bit longer than this, and then cover it with Jrue Holiday, 'cause I think those two are the, are the clear front-runners right now for Boston.
21:26
Um- You think they'd give it to Jaylen Brown two series in a row? [tsks] Yeah. I don't think that matters. I mean, they just, but they just started with those trophies, like, two years ago.
21:34
Right, but, but let's just, I mean, let's, but let- they did, I know Right, yeah. [laughs] Whatever it was...
21:36
but let's just, but let's just, but still, they're still humans voting, and statistically speaking, it's only been two games, right? Jrue was clearly the star of game two. Yeah.
21:49
One could argue that Porziņģis was kind of the star of game one, because you didn't expect it, but it's not like Tatum and Brown have really done anything specifically awesome to this point.
22:00
So this is where, this is where the whole, this is where the whole conversation about the Celtics becomes difficult, right? Because, like, they've both, they have both been awesome, in my opinion.
22:09
Jayson Tatum hasn't shot the ball well, but, like, this is everything that they're d- they're living by driving into the paint and creating open cutters, open shooters, and this is making the entire offense, uh, move for, for the Celtics.
22:23
Is Jayson Tatum. Uh, yeah. So that's what I'm saying, is that they're not gonna give it to Jaylen Brown two in a row, I don't think.
22:29
I, but he's ha- but the problem is he, he is, like, he is ha- he is playing better offensively, just lies that Tatum is.
22:34
I just, I guess what I'm saying is I just think voters, if it's not gonna be Jrue, let's say Jrue has no more great statistical games. They will talk themselves into Tatum one way or the other. That's my hunch.
22:44
We'll see. That's where it stands right now. We'll come back, Paul Spor on baseball, more of these tweets next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:54
Hey, uh, stop betting smada with a VSiN Pro subscription. Right now you can upgrade to a VSiN Pro annual subscription for just $199. That's down from the regular price of $240.
23:04
Plus, we're throwing in an extra month absolutely free.
23:07
With a VSiN Pro subscription, you'll get exclusive access to premium analysis, expert picks, and advanced betting tools that'll give you the upper hand all year long. And here is the big news.
23:16
Our NFL betting guide is coming out later this month. Kelly, did you know that? NFL betting guide, later this month. Let's go. Let's go. [laughs] God, we are becoming too similar.
23:28
This guide is your ultimate resource for the football sea- [laughs] this football season, packed with detailed team, division, and conference analyses, and of course best bets for the upcoming NFL season.
23:37
Don't miss out on this limited time deal. Visit vsin.com/subscribe right now. Use promo code ANG to claim your discount and bonus month. Promo code ANG, as in A Numbers Game.
23:48
That is vsin.com/subscribe now, and use promo code ANG. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bittling, live from Bar Canada here at the D, the lovely D in downtown Las Vegas. D for Derrick, Detroit. In downtown. All of those things.
24:07
Uh, Paul Sporer joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, @Sporer, S-P-O-R-E-R, on Twitter. He, of course, works at FanGraphs, the baseball handicapping bible, if I might say.
24:18
I don't know if they view it that way inside the walls of FanGraphs. They're probably like, "We're just doing this for the love of sport, for the purity of sport."
24:25
And then those of us who try to exploit the game for economic profit, they, like, don't even think about us. Maybe they do for DFS. Paul can tell us. Paul joins us now from Austin, Texas. How you doing, Paul?
24:35
I'm doing very well. We, we know the many uses of baseball stats. Yeah. We're not, we're not blind to it. We, we have, we have a fantasy section, you know.
24:42
We're very familiar with, uh, with the value that, uh, can be, can be wrought from our, uh, from our statistical profiles. Excellent use of wrought, by the way, Paul. Well done. Well done there. Thanks.
24:52
Uh, Kelly, am I allowed to say this, where you're headed, uh, next week? Am I allowed to say this? Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah. Kelly is- Forgot about Paul. Kelly, Kelly is going to Austin, Texas, on a trip.
25:01
Uh, any rec- Oh, let's go. Any rec- any- Forgot Sporer's right there. Yeah... any recommendations for young Kelly Bidlin? Well, I mean, you gotta get some barbecue. There's a lot of different places that you can go to.
25:12
Franklin's is, like, a super popular one, but it's pretty hard to get. Like, it's one of those ones where you gotta, like, stand out in line. Like, where, where, where are you going? What are you gonna be doing?
25:20
I have no idea, Paul. I, we're doing a guys' trip. Oh. We're go- we're going... We picked a city that we thought would be fun that none of us had been to before. I did... So s- get this.
25:27
Over the weekend, I'm talking to someone about going to Austin, they bring up Franklin's. They're like, "Oh, you gotta go to Franklin's, but you're gonna have to get there at about 4:30 in the morning." Exactly. No, no.
25:35
I'm like, what, what are you talking about? It's, it's... [laughs] That is not the right recommendation- [laughs]... because of the difficulty of it. I believe, actually, you can cater and order, though.
25:43
The sneak way around that, I think, is, like, cater and order, you go pick it up. But, um, hit me up on the text. Let me know what you guys are thinking. Nice. There you go. I can give you some more detailed ideas here.
25:51
All sorts of different things to do. You guys should have a great time. No, it's, I...
25:55
You hear some people have some negativity about Austin recently as it's gotten more popular, but that just comes with the territory of getting more popular. I like it. I like it. Thanks, Paul. It's humid.
26:03
That's my advice. It's humid. Yeah. Just know that. That, it's- Yeah... it is getting- Yeah... quite hot, yes. Uh, Paul, they're just gonna drink the whole time, so, you know. Ev- it'll be fine.
26:11
And then he s- and then he s- and then he sends me mean texts like, "Sorry, not sorry, Gil." [laughs] Gets a little ugly. All right. Uh, let me... We, we looked at a couple text- are you familiar... a couple tweets.
26:21
Are you familiar with this, with this, uh, Twitter handle? It's my, my new favorite baseball Twitter handle, uh, Paul. Besides you, of course. Um, but it is- I'm on Twitter. You don't have to say that.
26:32
No, no, no, it's true. But it's, it's Brooks Gate. I don't know if it's, like, a... If it's related to Brooks... Remember Brooks by, Baseball by Brooks or whatever that was back in the day? I do remember Brooks Baseball.
26:42
Brooks Baseball. I don't know if that's around anymore. Yeah, I don't know either. So this is Brooks Gate. Anyway, the, we're gonna go through more tweets later in the show.
26:49
But we did a couple earlier, and I'm just curious of your thoughts on this.
26:51
So the first one is, and it looks at baseball in all kinds of interesting ways that we can, you know, s- can sort of support our handicapping, one of which is how many times your starting pitcher has pitched seven-plus innings in a game.
27:02
And it's a pretty interesting graphic, which the Phillies get the headline at the top, because 20 times, and that makes sense, right? With Wheeler and Suárez and Nola, that they've gone 20 times. Crazy.
27:12
Yeah, it's amazing. How much higher they are, though. Look at that. They're just, like, you know, in their own world up there. Then it's the Braves down there at 16, and everybody else bunched up.
27:20
The one I'm gonna ask you about is at the very bottom. The Brewers have only- Mm-hmm. It's only been twice. Would you have ever predicted that before the season? If I'm being honest, I can say yes on that one. Okay.
27:32
Only because they traded their last horse. The other one got hurt. You know, they, they re-signed Woodruff, but he's rehabbing with them this year. And Freddy Peralta's just not that kind of guy.
27:41
They've been putting it together with glue, spit, and duct tape out there, getting the job done with these pitchers, but certainly not via length. It, it is, you know, do your five and dive for us.
27:52
Colin Ray, Joe Ross, Tobias Myers, Robert Gasser, Teddy Higuera, I think, threw a couple starts in there. Um, so, you know- [laughs]... they're doing everything. Thank you for getting that reference.
28:03
[laughs] They're doing everything that they can- That's great. Yeah... to get by. So I, I will say, I can honestly say I am not terribly surprised by that, that they are... Maybe that they're the very lowest.
28:12
Even the White Sox have more than them, but that's Garrett Crochet and Eric Fedde, I would imagine. But the, they don't have guys that go length. That's why they have to have such a good bullpen in Milwaukee.
28:20
Paul told a very nerdy baseball joke. I know you didn't catch it there, Kelly. Teddy, a Teddy Higuera reference on the show today. Very immaculate Grittish of you, by the way. Uh, okay.
28:28
I'm amazing at that game, and I have no problem being arrogant about it. [laughs] Really? Let me, let me tell you something. Yeah. Will, Will Hill. Felipe is good, too.
28:36
But Will Hill, I don't know what the lowest number you've ever gotten is, but this dude flashes up his numbers every day, and I'm like, "I can't even begin." Well, where's he at?
28:45
Give, give me some idea of where his numbers are. I think he had a 12 the other day. Okay. Yeah, yeah, that's fantastic. That's, yeah, that's where you're at. I, I go for under 100. That's kind of, like- Yeah...
28:54
you know, where I need to be. And then from there, let's, let's, you know, shave it down as low as we can.
28:58
The, the other thing that it, that it speaks to is this portion of our brain that is held for baseball and baseball only. Yes. You could...
29:07
They have basketball, they have football, but there's nothing quite as amusing as baseball. And I don't know if it's because we- I'm with you.
29:14
I don't know if it's because we collected baseball cards or there's just so many random names [laughs] that we know from baseball. I think, I think it is that, though. Yeah. Too.
29:21
Like, the cards, and then the randomness of it, and the roster sizes, too. Yes. Like, I know football rosters are huge, but we don't know every lineman. You don't even know that many defenders on a lot of teams.
29:31
So it's not as robust. But yeah, it is crazy. Oh, man. And it... I wish my brain would remember stuff that's important. Yes. But hey, man, you want to know that Felix Fermin played for Cleveland and Seattle?
29:41
[laughs] I got you. That's right. Uh, probably bet on Teddy Higuera double digit amount of times, man, back in the day. [laughs] Uh, okay. Here's the, here's one more. And I just, we threw this up earlier.
29:51
We'll throw up more in the next segment, but this is, uh, last one for Paul, is the Yankees thing. Which is, and I know Garrett Cole is coming, right?
29:58
But the Yankees pitching staff has their lowest, uh, K rate since 2015, and highest walk rate since 2010. They also lead Major League Baseball in ERA. Unsustainable, that's what they are. Isn't that correct?
30:14
Uh, certainly with, with, with regards to, you know, the level that they've been at. They have played this perfectly.
30:20
Clarke Schmidt and Luis Gil are the heroes of that team because it, they've made it so that they haven't missed Gerrit Cole, uh, an ounce. Not, not even one bit.
30:29
And of course, we kind of wrote their obituary when they lost him, which maybe we'll learn. And I say we as the baseball collective, not to write a team's obituary after they lose one guy.
30:38
I don't know how many times we have to see teams not fall apart. It's just not how baseball works. Even your ace, you can lose him.
30:45
Now, not every team's gonna get a Luis Gil to become an ace or a Clarke Schmidt to pitch like a solid number two for 11 starts. But, you know, one guy off a 26-man roster just does not kill a team.
30:57
If they're actually a great team, it should not kill them. And they have s- certainly survived with it, um, because they have guys that put the ball in play and the ball ha- has been turned into outs.
31:07
So I do wonder, you know, how that's gonna change over the season. Like you said, Cole will come back and kind of mitigate that a little bit. Clarke Schmidt's on the IL right now.
31:13
They have said that they're not gonna limit Gil. He's part of the walk issue, but he also kind of brings up the K's as well, so he's kind of contributing to both, uh, sides of it there, positive and negative.
31:24
Uh, that is a little surprising. It will regress. They won't be quite at this level, but they don't have to to be great, right? Because the Yankees have played brilliantly to this point.
31:31
They don't necessarily need to maintain a.690 winning percentage to have a great year. So it will regress, but maybe their offense gets better, which is a terrifying notion for pitchers- Yeah... around the league. Yeah.
31:42
Uh, you are wearing a Cincinnati Reds hat. I don't know if you know this, but they have the best record in the month of June, Paulie. The best record. It's, it's almost as if that's why I wore the hat, Gil.
31:51
[laughs] That's exactly right. There's always a reason. By the way, the Reds seven and two. The Yankees are also seven and two, but the Reds win with a plus 23 run differential if we're breaking a tie.
32:01
Uh, DFS us on the way out, if you would. We got a minute. What do you got DFS today? All right. So today, uh, it's kind of a wide open slate for me.
32:07
There's some high-end pitchers, you know, the aforementioned Zach Wheeler. You can never go wrong with him. But I kind of like going, dipping down a little bit with some of these pitchers.
32:13
If I'm not going with a Wheeler or Skeens, Tyler McGill against the, uh, Marlins. They're terrible, and that's at home for him, so I'm a- uh, definitely intrigued by that. JP Sears has been pitching really well.
32:24
I, I fear and respect the Padres, but I'm not afraid to go in there with some of these interesting Oakland pi- Oakland pitchers of late. The tough part with them is the win probability. That's always going to be low.
32:33
And basically starters against Seattle at this juncture, and even somebody like Drew Thorpe making his MLB debut is an interesting pivot because me, you, and Kelly could get three, four strikeouts against this Mariners team right now, the way that they're going.
32:46
So I'm very intrigued by playing, you know, t- uh, pitchers against them, even somebody like Thorpe. So if I'm going real cheap, I'll go Thorpe, McGill.
32:53
If I'm, you know, playing cash games where I want the high-end pitchers, it's, it's Wheeler and Skeens for me. Not Kelly. He's coming off Tommy John. He's a little banged up. Oh, okay. Yeah.
33:01
So he'll probably have two K's. Yeah. And you and I will get five K's. I wonder how many throws I'd need to just h- to actually get a strike. You'd probably throw out your arm. Wouldn't even solve anything.
33:09
[laughs] It's unbelievable. I, I, I, I appreciate that you're not one of those that's like, "Yeah, you know, I could take 100 swings and get a hit off a Major Leaguer." Yeah. No. No, you can't. No, you can't.
33:17
Uh, we got to work on this immaculate grit bracket. Like, make Sporer a one seed on one side. Challenge accepted. Make Will Hill a one seed on the other, and watch the mayhem ensue. I mean, All-Star break. Oh, totally.
33:29
Paul, thank you. Appreciate it, man. Take care, guys. Paul Sporer, @Sporer on the Twitter machine, from FanGraphs. Uh, we'll come back. More of these baseball tweets and Kelly's preliminary thoughts on the US Open next.
33:40
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34:12
Gil Alexander, Kelly Edelen, uh, son of Thad Edelen, we learned earlier today on the show. That's right. You ever mention your dad's name on the show before? I think I have. All right. [laughs] I think I have.
34:23
Um- Thad's out here a couple times a year, yeah. He loves coming. I've never met your, never met your dad. Trying to think if he did it to South Point or not. I don't think I did. I'd remember that.
34:32
He wa- uh, he wasn't, wasn't overly excited the past two times to come down and see us at the D early in the morning. [laughs] He wasn't. Uh, we, we- Wow...
34:38
we talk about, like, family and family friends on this show all the time. Yeah. But it is amazing how, like, we talk about how we still just get texts during the show. Yeah.
34:46
And it's like these people so know I'm on air, like, right now. Like, they have known this forever. Th- Th- Thad's funny, 'cause he loves sports, too, and he- Yeah... you know, he'll put a bet down or two.
34:55
Uh, but, uh, once he checks it out a couple times, good enough for him. Yeah. He's got other things to do. All right. Okay. Cool.
35:00
Um, I apologize for geeking out, uh, baseball-wise on the show today, but I find this stuff fascinating. Let's do a few more of these, uh, tweets.
35:07
Um, and we got to, and I got to reach out to, uh, Brooks, this Brooks Kate character, 'cause these are great. Uh, let's go to the next one. Should I call it out, Kelly?
35:15
Or do you want me to, uh, just, uh, just roll with whatever throws out there? Want to do the ballpark one? Yeah, we'll do the ballpark one. [laughs] Okay. Let's do the ballpark one.
35:23
Uh, this is interesting because, again, with your daily handicapping, uh, primarily this should, uh, you know, this has to do with totals, uh, quite frankly. But certain ballparks, right?
35:34
Ballpark factor oftentimes is consistent from year to year. Oftentimes it is not. Um, by the way, shout out Roxy Roxborough, the famous
35:44
most beautifully dressed person in any sportsbook, but also the founder, of course, of Las Vegas Sports Consultants, and friend to all of us here. Uh, Roxy, the very first guest ever on a Numbers Game.
35:53
Day one, spent the whole hour with me. Um, he was the first baseball bettor to really figure out on a large scale that different ballparks play differently. Imagine that.
36:05
Um, but here's, here's the stadium that each team would have the most and least home runs in this year, assuming they played every game there.
36:15
So they're taking the length, the distance I should say, of every home run hit by all 30 Major League clubs, and if you juxtap- if you, if you superimposed, pardon me, those You know, like a spray chart, right?
36:29
Into every ballpark. Which ballpark would have produced the most home runs? Certainly, I... Baseball and its basics are so silly with that. But here's the thing. Here's what you need to know.
36:38
This is strictly about home runs. What you will find is that the ballpark that has produced the most home runs clearly across the board is Dodger Stadium, Chavez Ravine.
36:51
Second place is the Great American Small Park in Cincinnati, right? Where there's three examples of that. Uh, but 27, no 26 other ballpark, uh, other teams would've hit their most home runs at Dodger Stadium.
37:05
Now, most people think of Dodger Stadium as a pitcher's park, not when it comes to home runs.
37:12
And the converse of that is where are the, what's the park with the least home runs if you, again, superimposed everybody's home runs into all the different ballparks? Fenway Park.
37:23
Short Porch Over the Monster is one thing, right? But the fact is is that the way that Fenway's dimensions are, of course with the Monster,
37:32
the fewest amount of home runs would actually be hit at Fenway, which you think of as a hitter's park. That is interesting. So just know, so just know when it comes to home runs, they actually play completely opposite.
37:44
It's Chavez Ravine that is the home run park, and it is Fenway that is the least home run parky, if you will, of all ballparks. Now, what if I was just stacked with like left, you know, left bats? Okay.
37:55
Well, that's what they try to do. Right. But still hasn't worked out that way. It's not enough to, to overcompensate. Let's go to the next one. We got two more of these. Wherever you want to go, Kelly.
38:05
Should I call it out? We'll go to the clutch rating. Have you, have you noticed that new trend? We talked about this on air, that new trend in broadcasting where they shout out the number of the graphic now?
38:13
[laughs] Yeah, it's not a big deal. There's an entire news network where the anchors openly now go, "Can I get five? Can I get five?" [laughs] It's not annoying at all. It's, it's not a big deal. Uh, here's one.
38:24
This is clutch rating. This is, this is gonna go clutch rating and their most clutch player from team to team. Um, now this is, you're saying, okay, well, what def- what defines, what defines clutch rating?
38:37
Uh, well, I'm glad you asked. According to FanGraphs, you ready for this? Paul Sporer works there.
38:42
The majority of players in the league end up with clutch scores between one and minus one, with zero being neutral, Kelly. Positive scores being clutch, negative scores being choke.
38:52
[laughs] Only a few players each year are lucky enough or unlucky enough to have extreme clutch scores.
38:58
So when you look at this one right here, and this plays out because, again, I had the Guardians for most wins in March, April, and most wins in May.
39:06
One of the reasons that I got off of them in June is 'cause I recognized watching all these Guardians games just with my, the eye test, that they were extremely good in high leverage situations, both offensively and defensively.
39:18
And this bears out in the numbers. So this is not quite up to date. This is from a few days ago. But the Cleveland Guardians by far have been the most clutch team in baseball. A plus 4.20 collective score.
39:33
David Fry happens to be their most clutch player, and again, if you watch Guardians games, you're like, yes, he has been. Plus 4.20. That's almost two points higher than the next most clutch team, the St.
39:44
Louis Cardinals. We're talking offense and defense here. You know who is the, the least clutch team up to this point in baseball? The team that I have in June. No. The Houston Astros.
39:54
No, but that's the point is like that's a good thing for me to have them in June. They just can't hold a damn lead after the seventh inning- Right... uh, the last couple days. But they have been the least clutch.
40:03
Sadly, so when you bet these things, you're looking for it to regress, right? The, the takeaway from this ought not to be, oh, Cleveland has continued to be so clutch. They'll always be clutch.
40:16
Oh, Houston has continued to be the least clutch team in all of baseball. They'll continue to suck in big moments. That will typically regress.
40:24
Sometimes it does not, but you should know all of these things for your handicapping. And then the final one that we have, um, this is related. This is, uh, what is this? The worst in high leverage situations?
40:36
What is this one, Kelly? I lost the last one here. This is the final one we have. Oh, no, this is the... Oh, can we do the, uh...
40:44
Yeah, let's do OPS with, uh, runners in scoring position, OPS against with runners in scoring position. We won't spend too much time on this one because you will get y- the expected results here.
40:54
Essentially, you're looking at that high right quadrant is the teams that are really good on offense with runners in scoring position and really good when the other team is in ru- uh, in runners in scoring position situations.
41:06
They, they stifle those opportunities. It's the, it's the teams you would expect. It's the Yankees, it's the Phillies, it's the Orioles, it's the Royals, it's the Guardians, it's the Brewers, right?
41:17
And in the far left bottom, you see the White Sox and the Athletics. That one is the least surprising of all of them. I do want to, to touch on this last one from Brooks Gate.
41:25
Missed ball strikes calls this year for every team. Higher number equals team helped by bad calls, okay? So they have tracked the missed calls by umpires over the course of the whole year.
41:38
Who has, uh, been the most fortunate? Who has been the least fortunate? By far, the most fortunate, and again, I, because I watch so many Guardians game, I can say with my eye test, this is absolutely true.
41:49
The Guardians were plus 94, Kelly. Plus 94. That means 94 to the positive when you net them out. They've gotten the best of ball strikes calls that were, that could've gone either way or were just plain wrong.
42:03
And, and watching those games- Take it. You'll take it. You're... I, no, I re- I remember I mentioned a game against the Twins where there's like 12 bad calls. Yeah. 11 went their way. Wow. Right?
42:12
By the way, the Yankees, because they're the Yankees, of course, are second tied with the Mariners at plus 71. Ha- have you looked at, have you looked like ch- at charts like this, like regularly during seasons before?
42:24
No. Okay. These are, these are unique, and this is why I bring it up. Th- some of them, yes, but this one, like this one right here- This is, this is fascinating I, I've never seen anybody have it quite tracked this way.
42:34
Who was the, the least fortunate on missed, uh, uh, balls and strikes? The Houston Astros. Ooh. Minus 65. Well, that kind of answers my question.
42:42
I was gonna go with like, do, you know, would the Yankees always be on the high end of that list? Maybe. Maybe. Like, you know, LeBron's always getting calls. But you get an insight to,
42:52
you know, I was on the Guardians in March, April, and in May,
42:57
but part of the reasoning of getting off them is 'cause I knew they got the best of it with not only calls, but also on high leverage situations, and the Astros were the opposite.
43:06
Now, will the Astros manifest this quickly in June? Uh, not so much so far. But anyway, these are fascinating, fascinating stats. So, uh, shout out, and I got a, I'm gonna reach out to him, get him on the show.
43:17
Uh, but these are just absolutely ga- uh, great, again, from Brooks Gate on Twitter. Uh, Kelly, real quick, 60 seconds, 'cause I know you got to sprint across town now to do long shots.
43:27
Um, you have made- Still got a few hours... you have made one bet so far? Got a few hours. Yeah, still gotta shop around. I, I, I've, I've got pretty much, I think my entire card f- uh,
43:37
filled out, but the, uh, of who I plan to bet, but I gotta shop around prices now. Um, waiting for shops still to post. But yeah, Scottie Scheffler I did bet a top five on already. Um- Number? With a room to add.
43:49
I, I bet him at minus 135 ties paid in full, um, on that one.
43:53
I'm probably gonna, I'll probably add on to him 'cause I think there's gonna be a shop or two, probably Circa, that posts I'll be able to get a little bit number, uh, better number on.
44:00
Uh, so him, I know I'll be betting top 10 in Xander. Went back and tracked, uh, went back and tracked. Have bet that in eight tournaments so far this year, cashed in six. Wow.
44:10
He is, he is ca- If you've bet it every time, he's cashed in 8 of 10 of those. 10 times he's finished inside the top 10. And we can no longer say bad things about Xander. He's been incredible. No. He's been incredible.
44:21
I, I, I think he's gonna actually have a really good week. I like him this week. I love Collin Morikawa again this week, too. It's a lot, very similar to my card last week. Kelly's gonna go record long shots.
44:28
Gojo and Golic next on the radio side. Best bets on the picture side. Enjoy from Veasy.
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