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Jun 11, 2025
A Numbers Game | June 11, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | June 11, 2025 | Hour 1
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44:48
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Transcript
0:00
[static] The numbers tell the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:10
Good Wednesday morning to you and it's a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, of course Sirius XM Channel 158. It's the Numbers Game.
0:20
Gil Alexander, Kelly Midlin alongside. Heyo. What's happening? Not much. Not much. How you doing? I'm good. You doing that whole d- double thing where you're like, "Not much. Not much"? Not much. Not much.
0:30
That- Whatever. I'm just good... football talk? Yeah. [laughs] Not much. Not much. Uh, on the show today, looking forward to it, Will Hill with all of his plays across the, uh, the sports betting landscape.
0:41
Siya Najad joining us to talk US Open golf from CBS Sports Line. Always excited about that. You'll have some more US Open thoughts. Had long shots- That's right... had long shots go yesterday. No, it was great. Yeah.
0:51
Me and Wes chatting it up for a while. It was, uh, it was awesome. The, uh, the bets are in. I think I'm, uh... I think I'm all ready. I think I'm finished. I think I'm finished. Oh, you think you're all space ready?
1:02
Yeah. Okay, gotcha. Yeah. All right. Uh, Jonathan Von Tobel, JVT, talking, uh, f- cohost of Money Moves, talking NBA finals with us, and Ben Wilson, College World Series. We are down to eight. We're down to Omaha.
1:14
Whole, whole, uh, network going to Omaha tomorrow. That's right. Yeah. Whole network. Except for- [laughs] Except for, except for the Semites. Other than that [laughs] we're all going.
1:25
Uh- And Dave's gotta sit here and talk to gents- Oh, that's true... gents remotely. I feel like that's worse. [laughs] That's true. Oh, by the way, before we start the show, I have a, a pet peeve, not along those lines.
1:34
Oh, you do? But I, I just remembered real quick the guy from, uh, Goodfellas. It was like, what do they call the guy? Uh, Jimmy Two Times, that's what it was.
1:40
Remember he's like, "I'm gonna get the papers, get the papers." [laughs] Um, you might be too young for this, but I'm, I'm at the age now where, like, I have a prescription or two- Yeah... at the local drugstore, right?
1:50
At the local Walgreens. They treat, if I don't come pick up my prescription within an hour or two, let alone a day or two- Bro, don't get me started on this... they treat my prescription like a gren- like a live grenade.
2:04
[laughs] They don't- Meaning what? They don't, they don't stop calling me. Oh. Oh, yeah. Automated, then an hour later it's, it's like a woman with an accent, the pharmacist.
2:14
She's, like, berating me for not coming and getting my prescription. It is hilarious. I'm like, "What is going... I'll get it. Leave me alone." S- uh, okay. So yeah, yeah, they're terrible.
2:24
I don't know what's going on with pharmacies these- Oh my God... these days. They're terrible. My brother's a pharmacist. Maybe I'll just call him and complain- Oh, yeah. Go ahead... complain on behalf of all of us.
2:30
Let's blame your brother. Hey, call all the, all your pharmacists and get this figured out. But the, uh... No, the other one, so, like, for my shots, right?
2:37
They're, they're from more of a private pharmacy here in town that is in- Oh... over in Summerlin. Yes. I'm not driving to Summerlin, so they do a delivery service, right? Uh-huh.
2:46
They give you one of those, like, five-hour windows. Gil, they are 50/50 whether they get there in the window or not. Oh, that's different. Like, I get the call like, "Hey, I'm here. It's 9:30 PM."
2:56
I'm like, "Yeah, you were supposed to be here four hours ago." I love that you're so bougie that you get your, your thing delivered to you. I'm not driving all the way to Summerlin to pick up a prescription.
3:04
[laughs] I mean, not when a service is offered. Anyway, yesterday I got so frustrated. I'm like, "What? Is your plastic bucket overflowing that you need me to come in?" They're like, "Plastic bucket?"
3:11
You know what I'm talking about. Anyway. Yeah. Oh, yeah. All the trays? Yeah. [laughs] Why- Their system- Why are those the same trays been around for, like, 50 years? [laughs] A to G, H to J, that kind of thing.
3:21
Uh, all right. Uh, I was nerd- All right, sports. [laughs] I was nerding out on some baseball. Nerding out on some baseball 'cause, uh, Wishnev was on on Monday when you weren't here, when you were on assignment.
3:29
Uh, Wishnev was on the show. We got into some deep dive stuff on, on baseball. And, uh, you know, Mark Borchardt and I do,
3:36
we do the, uh, the quarterlies on the, on the Beating the Book podcast feed, and we get into first fives, we get into first inning stuff. And so I just wanna do this. We're at roughly, like, the 65 game mark.
3:49
I didn't wanna wait till 80, 82, or 81 games to, uh, to update the first five, but these are the first five stats in baseball, and then we have some, uh, some props we wanna get into.
3:58
But currently, and this, by the way, shout out to Odds Shark on these because, uh, they do a great job in updating these. So these are the s- these are the first five stats, betting stats, through yesterday.
4:10
Through, no, through, th- pardon me. Not through yesterday, through the day before yesterday. All right. So yesterday's games are not included in this, but shout out to Odds Shark for keeping these updated.
4:18
So now this is the exercise where it's the bizarro exercise. If you had bet on each club every single game that they've played this year, whether they were a favorite or a dog, right? Obviously, no one really does that.
4:32
I hope no one does that. Um, but if you did, this is how much you'd be up or down. And now, not full game. We're talking about first five.
4:39
So the best first five teams in baseball, had you done that, and remember, with first fives you're gonna have pushes as well.
4:45
The number one first five betting team in baseball thus far this year, and again, our task here is to figure out how much of this is narrative, how much of this is predictive. The Detroit Tigers, number one.
4:55
Number one first five, number one period. Uh, 39, 21, and 7 are the Tigers this year if you bet them every single game first five. So Tarik Skubal on down, their starting pitching has been solid.
5:08
You'd be up about 10 units. [laughs] What are, what are you laughing- I, I- What are you laughing at? I haven't looked at this in a while. 'Cause you know where it's going, right? Yeah, I know where it's going.
5:16
All right. Cubbies are second. You'd be up a little over seven units, uh, if you bet them every single game, first five, dog, favorite, whatever. Yankees are third.
5:26
So the Yankees have the best first five record, 37, 19, and 8, but because some of those losses were as big favorites in the first five, they're third place, not first or second.
5:37
They're, you'd be up six and a half units, roughly, if you bet the Yankees first five bizarro every single game, uh, this year. And then number four. How is this still a thing? This is- How is this still a thing?
5:48
This, the reason I bring this up is because this has been going on now for over a year, and it ain't stopping. It's a year and a half at this point. The Chicago White Sox, who, by the way, they don't stink anymore.
5:58
Like, you know, they don't, like last year stink. They're just not great at baseball. They're, they're not good at baseball, let's put it that way. But they don't stink anymore. They're 23 and 44 in real life,
6:10
full standings. But first five, they are 24, 27 and 15, and as a dog in many of those, if not most of those, not quite all of those, but most for sure, you'd be up
6:26
5.72 units doing that on the White Sox. The Brewers are fifth, by the way, which is a bit of a surprise to me as well.
6:33
But I wanna just seize on the White Sox for a second because the, the betting sort of, you know, application of this once again becomes, all right, how do you, how do you make money on this?
6:42
Now, last year when Borchardt and I were talking about this, and everybody knew the White Sox stunk. Remember, the White Sox won 41 games last year, but they were a top five first five team,
6:52
you know, for the, for the balance of the season. And there were certain books where you could do something called a double result. It's not available at every book.
7:02
The double result was White Sox to win the first five and lose the full game, and that you, that hit enough times last year, Borchardt had the exact number.
7:11
I wanna say it was, it was somewhere between like 18 to 22 times, something like that in that range. But the average price on them was seven to one you were getting on it.
7:21
So if you did that last year, it became this really profitable thing, um, doing it that way.
7:29
Um, if you, I think it was 22, I can't remember the exact number, but trust me, it was, it ended up being a very profitable proposition because the average was seven to one, but sometimes it was longer than that.
7:38
And this year the books have adjusted a bit on these double results. You're not getting quite the bang for your buck. This is, by the way, we're seeing this in a lot of stuff that bettors actually won on.
7:49
Alternate season win totals in the NFL is another one.
7:52
We'll talk about that with Fezzik later in the week or later next week, uh, when he's back from his New York journey, where it's like, you know, alternate season win totals in the NFL, they used to give us like plus 230 on some of these numbers.
8:03
Now it's like plus 190-ish. Hmm. So, you know, all good things come to an end and, and books do adjust, so they have a little bit with these White Sox double results. But
8:13
that still doesn't mean you can't bet them in-game in some of these, right?
8:18
Where it's not quite as stark as last year where you knew, oh my God, they're gonna lose the full game, 'cause they're actually pretty pesky this year.
8:25
But it is just something to note, both if you have those double results, if you, if you do wanna bet them in game, it's still kind of a thing, if not as dramatic as last year. Uh, it's crazy to me. It's crazy.
8:37
I had not checked in on that list in a while. The fact that this has been going on for a year and a half is just, it's just wild. [laughs] It's amazing. I mean, as bad...
8:44
I mean, I know you're talking about them being better, not a great baseball team this year.
8:47
They were terrible last year, and the fact that you could have just be- betting first fives and ended up making money is just incredible.
8:54
Worst first five teams, by the way, again, if you bet these bizarro every single game, again, you're probably doing something wrong, but just for a, uh, for exercise purposes, the Rockies are the worst.
9:03
Okay, no surprise there. 13, 43 and 9. That's, that's about as bad of a number as I ever remember seeing on this though, Gil. [laughs] Well, certainly 65 games into a season it is. Yeah. [laughs] You'd be down 22 units.
9:15
By the way, if you're doing that again, what are, what are you doing? Guardians are second worst. Now, the Guardians are what, what are three games above 500? No, Guardians are now only two games above 500.
9:23
Remember, that was my favorite season win total was the Guardians under, and now they are finally coming back to earth.
9:28
Their, uh, their positive run differential is finally, uh, you know, regressing to what their record ought to be day by day.
9:36
But part of that handicap was I just don't think their starting pitching is that great, and 21, 34 and 9, it would cost you almost 14 units if you bet them first five every single game this year.
9:46
And the Dodgers, now, so this is, this is also for like new baseball bettors. The Dodgers are third worst, so again, with a team as good as the Dodgers are,
9:56
you'd only be 27, 31 and 9 betting them first five years, this year. You'd be down 13 units, 13 plus units on them alone. Astros and Marlins round out the top five.
10:05
The other thing we wanna talk about, we'll talk about this later, but I just wanna... Oh, go ahead. Clearly the Dodgers are a terrible baseball team. Terrible baseball team. Terrible baseball team.
10:12
But I do want, I, l- before we, before we go on to other stuff, 'cause we'll, we'll go into some of these later on in the show, 'cause Kelly put together a segment later.
10:19
There are, there are props available at, is this DraftKings where these were available? Mm-hmm. Team to record 60 plus wins, some teams to record 70 plus, some teams to record 80 plus regular season wins.
10:29
I just wanna sort of whet the appetite for later. So the Dodgers, that you can still bet the Dodgers to record 100 plus regular season wins this year. All right. Dodgers are currently 40 and 28.
10:42
Currently 40 and 28 with a plus 65 run differential. Now, if you go through Pythagorean theorem, Bill James tried and true run scored, runs prevented, what their record ought to be, guess what?
10:53
The record ought to be exactly what it is, 40 and 28.
10:56
If you do the sequencing on that, which I've explained many times before, which is okay, it's one thing to know how many runs they've scored and how many runs they've given up, but it's entirely...
11:04
You know, sometimes you get fortunate and unfortunate based on the sequencing of, of a frame. In other words, home run, three strikeouts, three walks.
11:12
If it's in that order, uh, you know, home, uh, I should say home, you know, then you only have one run. But if the home run follows the three walks and then you get the three strikeouts, you get four runs.
11:22
So both offensively and defensively, you get fortunate and unfortunate in a game, and then through a season. So they'd, they'd be 38 and 30 if you did it that way. Still right around where they should be.
11:32
But here's the point. They gotta go 60 and 34 the rest of the way to get to 100 wins, and even though they have an easy schedule, I'm not laying minus 330 on them having a better
11:46
record win percentage wise moving forward than they have had. No way. Sorry, Steve Fezzik. I know he loves the 100 wins.
11:52
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12:10
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12:37
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12:47
Every time I say, "Drop in July 1st," you should, uh- Drop it like it's hot. Drop it like it's hot... drop it like it's, yeah. You should just stand up and do something.
12:52
[laughs] That'll get, that'll get the ladies to tune in for sure. Oh, man. Uh, we got tweets at Beating the Book. Always appreciate the feedback. This is from, uh, Scott, uh, Scott, uh, Barbarac who says...
13:06
@urbanwarfare1 who says, "Gil, can you please ask Kelly if Taco Bell is a taco place or a chicken place? That's definitely him narrating the commercials, right? Nice to see him branching out." Oh, I know.
13:17
I, oh, wow, I haven't noticed that- Haven't either... voiceover on that. I'll have to check it out. Yeah.
13:21
But it is, uh, I, I, I'm, I, I'm with you with it's, it's a little odd to me that, that we need chicken nuggets at Taco Bell, but, you know, I don't know. Fa- fast food's gonna do what it's gonna do. Martle Jay.
13:32
Do, do you remember the stores for, like, ever that were, like, the half Pizza Hut, half Taco Bell? Oh, yeah, we had one in San Francisco. I never understood that. I know.
13:38
Like, I was like, "Are people really going in and be like, "Let me get a stuffed crust pizza and throw a gordita on top there." [laughs] Martle Jay, uh, quote, "Just not the Semites was not on the ANG bingo card today."
13:51
Laughing, [laughs] laughing emoji. Rob Graham, "Good morning, Gil and Kelly. Would you mind asking Walgreens to send up a couple pharmacists up here to North Saskatchewan?
13:59
I can call in to get my refills, come in the next day, and still wouldn't have them even ready." Oh, the service in North Saskatchewan. Oh, yeah. I've been hearing about that for years.
14:08
We've been talking about it on the show- [laughs] That's right... since, since the inception. Jack Olaquire, "Gil, I'm a lifelong White Sox fan, and I can't figure out if your report is good or bad."
14:17
Well, uh, it's just something for bettors to note. I'm not making a comment on the team itself. Yeah, if you're a fan- Yeah... it's still bad. It's, uh, they're, you're better than last year, though. You really are.
14:27
Uh, New- [laughs] This is a tall- You're welcome. Yeah, yeah, yeah. [laughs] Uh, [laughs] Tall task there. That's right.
14:32
Uh, New York Bald Giants42, Steve says, uh, "You mentioned that if Indiana pulls this off in the NBA Finals, it's the best title run ever, and I agree with you. But curious what you think is currently the best.
14:43
I know I'm biased, but I think it's the 2007 Giants. Dallas and Green Bay both on the road and the 18-0 Pats hard to top." That was great, for sure. Yeah.
14:52
I, it- I mean, recent Miami Heat runs stick out to me as well, but- Though they didn't get to the promised land, though. Yeah.
14:58
I, I mean, I, the one I always bring up, and I know maybe you're not considering college, uh, ball, but the Virginia Ca- the, I'll just say it again, the Wahoos, the Virginia Cavaliers of 2019,
15:08
just because of the way they won that game against Purdue and the game against Auburn. They were down 14 to Gardner-Webb in the first round a year after they got beat by UMBC as a 16 seed. I, I just think it's that.
15:20
But you're probably right. The Giants' 2007 run is right up there. But this Indiana would take the cake. Again, for those, for those four games that they won, we talked about them at the end of the show yesterday,
15:33
even now, just this shortly removed from it, I don't think we fully appreciate how amazing it's been so far. Not at all. Uh, and then Michael Salvino says, "Great info on MLB First Five. Appreciate." Um, no problem.
15:44
We'll, uh, update it again, uh, with Mark Borchardt on the Beating the Book podcast when we do the, uh, the mid-season Q2 report. Uh, speaking of the NBA Finals, Mr. Bidlin. Mm-hmm.
15:53
Ben Fox, our old buddy Ben Fox tweeted this. Remember that? Um, we brought this up with Will Hill. Will Hill was the first one to point this out to me.
16:00
He says, "The Oklahoma City Thunder are 0 and 7 against the spread on the road this postseason. Will they cover their first game this playoffs on Wednesday night?" Game 3 spread is Thunder minus 5 and a half.
16:11
This is a thing. This has never happened before that a team wins the NBA title without covering a road game. This could still happen with OKC. It's wild. Uh, I mean, it really is.
16:21
Their home-road splits heading into the finals were insane.
16:24
You're talking about just straight up record, they're four and three, so spread has come into play, uh, obviously in four of those situations, uh, for them to not cover seven times.
16:33
But four and three on the road, they have a minus 6.2 net rating, and they're shooting under 30%, uh, uh, from three. So i- it's been wild with the home-road splits.
16:43
I think some of it is, uh, you know, some of it can continue, Gil. I don't expect...
16:47
I, I, I note the three-point shooting percentage because you do, despite them being young players, despite the role players being asked to do a lot on this team, that's still such a low percentage, you do expect to, uh, progress positively here at some point.
17:01
Um, but yeah, man, it's a thing, and we talk about this game tonight, sitting five, five and a half most places, 228, eight and a half, 229 the total. Um, it's looking like, man, total I've been staying away from a lot.
17:13
I think we're gonna get to a point like we do often in a lot of these NBA series where the under's gonna be the look.
17:19
Um, I, uh, I think the Pacers, if they lose this game tonight, we start to see some adjustment, more adjustments in game four, and it's...
17:28
You're gonna have to try to play, if they lose this game, you're gonna have to try to play the variance ga- uh, the variance game with three-pointers, I think, and you're gonna have to start taking away Shai, who's doing anything he wants right now.
17:38
But they're not throwing multiple guys at him.
17:40
They're really playing him mainly one on one, and I think game four, if Shai s- keep, uh, cooks them again tonight, I think they're gonna start having to s- sell out, uh, on stopping him a little bit more.
17:49
It's gonna sh- like leave some open looks for the Thunder. The one I expect to start tonight from the Pacers, though, is we start to see a lot more three balls go up.
17:58
Uh, it, it, they have just struggled offensively to do anything against this Thunder team, and I think that's one of the, one of the ways they're gonna look to score.
18:05
Haliburton being a little bit banged up, I don't know how big of a deal to make of that. Gil, I, I, you know, sure he's not 100%. I think we need know, uh, we, uh, we know that.
18:14
Um, how much is it gonna affect him in this game tonight? Uh, still to be seen. He did practice. I have one bet so far in the game tonight.
18:23
I did bet over threes on him, over two and a half, uh, f- uh, three-pointers made for Tyrese Haliburton. Again, I think maybe he's limited movement-wise a little bit, settles for some of those deeper shots.
18:34
I think they're just gonna end up putting up more threes regardless. I think if you wanted to look early for first quarter stuff for him, too, uh, that wouldn't be a bad play. But yeah, that... It, it...
18:43
When we talk side and total, total I wouldn't touch. If anything, side I'm... Drew kind of said yesterday, this number's about right on for me, but it would probably be Pacers or nothing in this one.
18:52
And let's remember again, uh, right now, adjusted series price with the series knotted up at one game a piece, Thunder are minus 525. Remember pre-flop, they were minus 750. Mm-hmm.
19:01
Um, and historically, in case you missed it the morning we were talking about this, uh, historically, the only teams heading into an NBA finals that were as big of a favorite or bigger And they all won.
19:14
The '96 Bulls [laughs] of Michael, of Michael Jordan, Michael Jeffrey Jordan, who started 41 and three that year. They were minus 950 heading into the, uh, the NBA finals that year. They beat the Sonics in six.
19:27
Remember that? The '99 Spurs, that was the lockout year where they only played 50 games. Um, they were minus 900 heading in against the, uh, the Ewing-less Knicks, I believe.
19:38
Patrick Ewing was hurt, if I'm not mistaken in that. Um, and then it was the Kobe-Shaq Lakers of 2000, 2001, and 2002 who were minus 800 against the Pacers. Uh, they beat the Pacers in six that year.
19:50
They were minus 2,000 against the Sixers. Remember Iverson won the first game with the walkover t- uh, Tyronn Lue, but then the Lakers took the next four.
19:58
And then 2002, the Lakers were minus 750, exactly what this Thunder team is.
20:04
And that was the Lakers team that was more famous for beating the Kings in seven in the Western Conference finals with the game six controversy, than they were sweeping the Nets that year in the finals. Yeah, I know.
20:14
That was gross. And then the only other team is the 2018 Warriors, who were, as you see, minus 1075 before that series.
20:22
Um, that was the Warriors team that was not the Warriors team that was 40 and one that won their first title, was not the, the KD Warriors that went 16 and one in the playoffs, and was not the 73 win Warriors that lost to the Cavs.
20:37
This was the, the last iteration of the, uh, of the k- of the, uh, KD Warriors where they beat the Cavs. They swept the Cavs in four. Uh, so the Thunder, we're showing the Thunder at minus 650. So these...
20:49
This is really the air that the Thunder are in heading into this NBA finals. And, and what was it Drew said? He, he believes they won't lose another game. Yeah. Yeah, I don't know if I'm right there with him.
21:01
I prob- I'd probably put it Thunder in six in this point, at this point, but I've got a Thunder in five bet [laughs] so I would still... That would be nice. Yeah. That would be nice. I think it's gonna be...
21:10
I, I think it's tough though for... Still got enough respect for what this Pacers team has done in this playoff run that I think they likely take one of these two g- uh, two games at home.
21:19
But, man, I think tonight's the one they need more, 'cause I think you really gotta start thinking about some serious adjustments in game four if you lose this game tonight. Drew brought it up yesterday.
21:28
I think it was a great point of, do we see this rotation start to shorten from, uh, by the Pacers?
21:35
I think tonight they play things like they have been playing, but if it's, if it's an ugly result tonight, I, I think that's a good call by Drew. We see that more game four. I think they need...
21:44
I think the Pacers need to win both. I really do. I think if they, if they even split these- Yeah... it's Katie bar the door. 'Cause you... Are...
21:51
Can you really come up with a fifth miraculous win on the road in OKC, let, let alone, who knows if a miraculous win will take place in games three or four?
22:00
But I just feel like if, if it's two-two, it's just so in the Thunder ba- Just- You know, court at that point And that, and that's kind of what I mean by the three stuff, right? Yeah.
22:08
Like this, I think tonight might play out f- fairly nor- like Pacers take a regular approach. Okay, nothing... Yeah, you, you, you took home court advantage. It's one-one, nothing to freak out about yet, right?
22:18
But if you, if you get beat up tonight like you did in game two, you gotta start doing something with Shai, and that's gonna lo- leave open shooters.
22:26
And for, for your offense, you're gonna have to start th- putting up way more threes just to play that numbers game. If this goes seven, let's just say it goes seven, you know what date this ends on? Oh gosh. Uh, no.
22:37
June 28th. June 23rd, which [laughs] is just like really? J- just run it into the preseason. Eh, it's okay. I love it. Yeah. Back up the story of the series, or start of the series.
22:51
Coming back, Will Hill with all his plays next. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:06
Unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis. It's the sharp plays, real-time global betting information, as well as alerts directly from the pros. We invite you to check them out.
23:16
Sharpplays.com. Skill Alexander, we get tweets at Beating The Book. Uh, Nick at Real Nicks, he says, uh, "Hey Kelly, we have a combo Taco Bell Long John Silver's- Oh God... a few minutes from me.
23:27
Nothing goes better with a burrito and three soft tacos than a dozen hush puppies, especially [laughs] at 1:00 AM." What's a... I bet they make a great fish taco though. Long John Silver's.
23:37
When, when's the last time you've eaten at a Long John Silver's? Oh, I don't think I've ever. I think that's a no sell. I, I was j- I was just gonna say, I don't know that I ever have in my entire life.
23:45
And I remember there was one growing up, and I never went in there. Uh, Darren Prince. Good for them for still being around. That's right.
23:52
Uh, Darren Prince, "With the riots in Los Angeles, the Dodgers have a 10 game at home series starting Friday. Could MLB move the games?" Uh, that's an interesting question that I had not considered.
24:04
Um, obviously depending on location and severity, uh, the only historical precedent for this is the Rodney King riots in 1992. Uh, the Dodgers canceled and later rescheduled several home games. I remember that.
24:18
And the Lakers moved a playoff game to Vegas, uh, due to the severity of that situation. So that's, that's the historical precedent, but we'll see. We'll see what happens. It's a, it's a good thing to bring up.
24:28
Yeah, I mean o- obviously you'd hate to see it happen. Yeah. But you can't, we can't sit here right now and say there's a 0% chance of that happening. Uh, let's point. Uh, what's it?
24:36
Brandon Webb, "2019 Blues, least points in the league at the All-Star break." Oh, talking about, I guess he's talking about the question of what's the most...
24:43
Uh, we were, what we were talking about was the most amazing playoff run. But yes, the 2019 Blues, I guess from just being so average so late into the season, it, it was unique in that way.
24:55
I think that's what he's reacting to. How, how could you have forgotten about them, Gil? Come on. [laughs] You mean the team that won it after the Capitals did? That's all I remember them as. Um, let's see.
25:03
Charl- uh, Charles, we'll get to that one later. Let's, let's bring in Will Hill. Will Hill, ladies and gentlemen. He's the host of the Shoulda Bet More podcast, available where you get all your podcasts.
25:13
He's also the star of the Beating the Book Maker pod, and of course, Chris Fallica's Bear Bets podcast empire over there at Fox Sports.
25:19
You can follow him on Twitter at NotTheWillHill, and he's a co-host here at VSiN Thursday night, Friday night, Saturday, Sunday. He does it all. It's Will Hill, everybody. How you doing? Boys, what's going on?
25:31
Gilly, nice to have you back.
25:32
It, it's funny you bring that up 'cause I was thinking the same thing with the, uh, with the Dodgers possibly moving the games or, uh, a- another option, I don't know if you remember this, it was about a decade ago, the Orioles played the White Sox, it was in Baltimore, they played in an empty stadium because- Yes...
25:46
there was something that happened. Uh, s- I, I forget, c- civil unrest I guess would be the best- Mm-hmm... way to put it.
25:51
There was some incident where they couldn't properly, you know, guarantee security, so they just, they played in an empty building, which, uh, was a, I, I guess a sign of things to come, you know, five years later with COVID.
26:01
But that was, uh, very strange at the time where you just, it was the ballplayers, it was the umpires, and it was, you know, coaches, managers, and, and nobody else. I don't know if that would be an option.
26:09
There's- Every- everybody should just play in Sacramento, clearly. That's what we figured. Clearly. That's where baseball should be housed. Clearly. So I'll take a road trip.
26:17
Uh, by the way, we were talking a little bit about this off air. Here are the MLB June most wins, and we update these every day here on the show.
26:23
Uh, the Mets, Blue Jays, and Giants, all 7-2 atop the leaderboard in June, and there are our Detroit Tigers in fourth place right now at 6-3, uh, with a plus nine run differential.
26:36
But I just wanna seize on the Giants right there, Will, 'cause this is what you brought up. The, the San Francisco Giants are 7-2. Look at that one run column. Six and two in one run games. That's crazy.
26:47
The last six games they have won by a run, by a singular run. Uh, unsustainable, I believe- [laughs]... is what we call that. But nonetheless, you bank the wins, and there they are. Um, Will, what about them?
27:00
Sustainable or not? Uh, probably not. And by the way, for the audience, I had to twist Gil's arm very hard to, uh, to get him to bring up the Giants. [laughs] He resisted, I insisted. We went back and forth.
27:10
Finally he's like- I was like, "We can't talk about that"... "You know what? We'll bring, we'll, we'll, we'll talk about the Giants."
27:14
Yeah, and for anyone just figuring out a way to, uh, to fade the Rockies as a free, free, you know, parlay piece, a spot on the bingo card, just, you know, fade the Rockies somehow.
27:23
Uh, if you went to bed early last night, you woke up with a nice little surprise with the Giants, I think four runs in the ninth. Uh, I, I don't know that they swing the bats well enough.
27:30
Chapman just went on the IL, but look, the NL has been, uh, look, the Dodgers have been disappointing, the Padres have been disappointing at times, the, the Diamondbacks, uh, have, haven't lived up to expectations.
27:40
Now they're not gonna have Burns. You know, it's funny, a lot of these teams, just really in general in baseball, uh, ha- have not lived up to expectations. Braves were what, 93 and a half?
27:50
And I'll get to them in a minute with one of my plays. Uh, 93 and a half wins, they're 10 games under. The Red Sox, the Rangers, the Diamondbacks, the Orioles.
27:58
They, you got a lot, a lot of disappointing teams in baseball, more than I can remember in past years. Yeah.
28:03
I mean, some of those teams like the Reds, when you look at, and we'll, we'll get into these when we do some props in a bit.
28:08
But it's, you know, the Reds should probably have a better record based on pythag, based on base runs.
28:14
So even though they are, what, they're 35 and 33, they probably ought to be a few games, if not four games, better than that.
28:22
Um, the Red Sox are also a team that probably should have a better record than they do based on run production and, and run allowance and also run sequencing.
28:31
But, right, then you have to go to the p- personnel part of things and you're like, okay, well, that's one thing sort of abstractly, but, you know, that's what their record is.
28:40
Doesn't matter what they should or should not have been. And then you don't have Bregman and you're like, can they really, you know, and who knows when he's back, right? It's gonna be a while.
28:48
So, uh, yeah, there's a lot of these teams where it's like, it's, it's too bad. You, maybe you should have been better, but you're not.
28:55
Yeah, that too, and, and look, the Orioles were what, 91, 92, their over-under for wins and, and they're looking at 13 games under 500.
29:02
It's just a lot of these teams, so like you're saying, they're underperforming based on, you know, the run scored, runs allowed, but some of the, the preseason expectations are just not matching. So interesting.
29:11
We're, uh, you know, getting to the point where these teams, I mean, I, I've said this about the Braves, the season's long, there's a lot of time left. The season's long, the season is not eternal. Right.
29:20
Now I understand the Tigers and the Mets last year, uh, look, the Mets were one of the worst teams this time last year, and they were two wins away from a World Series.
29:28
The Tigers just completely came out of nowhere, so it can happen, but just, uh, you're almost putting yourself in a position where you're some of these teams where there's no coming back from it.
29:35
Can you fact-check Willie if a season is eternal? Can you fact-check him on that, please? Uh, it is not. Yeah, it feels that way sometimes. It is not. All right, what did you say? You have a Braves play?
29:43
Was that what you teased at? I did play the Braves, uh, Schwarmbach going against Patrick. It's in the 140, 145 range.
29:51
Uh, I just think better pitcher, better lineup, and, um, you know, Brewers really haven't swung the bats well recently, haven't swung the bats well at home for whatever that's worth, uh, recently.
30:01
So I think this price is okay to lay with Atlanta, and look, uh, gotta, gotta, gotta come at some point here if you're laying... I have a hard time believing the run is not coming at some point.
30:09
There's just too much talent. But again, you're 10 games under. I mean, they have one more win than the Pittsburgh Pirates. They're two games ahead of the Marlins. They're two games behind the Nats.
30:19
They're trailing basically everybody- That's nuts... in the National League. So if the run's gonna come, it's gotta come at some point. Plus you gotta give your front office a reason to, uh, you know, believe here.
30:27
But I, I do think this is a pretty favorable matchup here for Atlanta. Anything else in baseball today? Uh, I did play the Phillies. I know Luzardo has not been great.
30:35
He's been very shaky the last two starts, but before that he was dominant. Uh, Cubs the last six weeks or so have been shaky against left-handed pitching, so I think this is a good spot for Luzardo to bounce back.
30:45
Phillies another team, they're not really swinging the bats as well as you'd expect with all those names you recognize in that lineup. Uh, they are now tr- five back of the Mets.
30:53
I know a lot of people before the season, Joe P., a bunch of people saying, "Hey, they're getting older. Uh, they're a team on the decline."
30:59
That's starting to look accurate, but I think this is a good spot to, uh, to back the Phillies. And I did take the Marlins plus a half a run in the first five.
31:07
Quantrill's been pretty solid lately, the Marlins pitcher going against Falters, who's got decent numbers, but just doesn't have the stuff. He doesn't, you know, blow you away with his stuff.
31:15
So to me, this is one of these games where I love getting the half run in the first five. Uh, so often it's 2-2 after five and you, you win with that hook, which feels really good.
31:23
So I will take the half run here with the first five of Miami. That's, that's what, that's what Wishnev, Wishnev, uh, describes as a Willie special, the plus half a run- Yes... in the first five. Will loves those.
31:31
And then PSA, that one starts early, right, uh, Will? That is Yeah, 12:35 Eastern I think Yeah, a couple hours Love it Yeah.
31:38
Um, by the way, Charles in Connecticut, Hoop Homer, he tweeted and he goes, "Curious to hear your thoughts on the Dodgers using a position player starting in the sixth inning last night.
31:45
Don't we have to take a glance now any time they're losing by five plus in the seventh inning or later for a possible live bet?" Um, I would just broaden that.
31:52
How many times do you think that comes up in our group chat where we're like, "Oh, position player alert"? Not nightly, but like how many times a week would we say at this point?
32:01
How often does it come up versus how often does it actually cash? Right. 'Cause so often you- Yeah. [laughs]...
32:06
you pinpoint and say, "Oh man, they're gonna go to a position player," and some guy comes in throwing 26 miles per hour and gets them one, two, three, and you just wanna just throw your remote control through the TV.
32:14
It's so true. I do these, like- It's so true... is there a, is there a, obviously you guys have your group chat. I, is there- There's gotta be a Twitter account out there, right?
32:21
Like, I need that notification set up of like- Yeah... position player in. Like, I need that to, uh, Twitter account. MLB position player, that's the whole account. That's all they do.
32:28
That's all they do, just alert when they're in. Just bulbs. Yeah. [laughs] Um- The books are pretty smart. Once the position player- Yeah...
32:35
is in they kinda take everything down and you gotta get ahead of it early in the game, an inning or two before, that kind of thing. For sure. Uh, all right, NBA game three tonight, NBA finals.
32:43
This just in, special numbers game investigation reveals. Do you have a play? It would be taking the points if, or nothing. I just don't know with how OKC's played on the road how you get to laying five, five and a half.
32:54
That being said, I, I think this series goes one of two ways tonight. Indy wins, we're looking at a very tension-filled 48 hours where, man, OKC's down two-one, game four is on the road.
33:04
It's, uh, it's nervous time for OKC.
33:06
I think if OKC wins though, I think a lot of people are gonna turn the page mentally with how dominant they were in the first two games, despite the fact that it's only one-one, so I think OKC wins.
33:15
I can't get to laying the five and a half, five. It, this does remind me a little bit Miami-Denver a couple years ago where Miami, uh, was just, they, they had so much magic, they proved everybody wrong.
33:25
It was one-one after two and then they never won another game. Uh, this, this Indy team reminds me a little bit of that Miami team.
33:30
I'm just, I'm terrified to bet against the Pacers with what they've done here the past month or so. How can you not be, man? How can you not be? I, I totally get it. Will, always a pleasure.
33:38
Um, Should've Bet More, how o- how many times a week do you, do you put 'em out? Monday, Wednesday, Friday. Monday, Wednesday, Friday. A who's who of phenomenal guests. Thank you, Will.
33:48
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:09
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34:14
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34:28
Guess what everybody wants to talk about, Kelly? Fast food. Hoops- That's, that's all I'm Googling right now too... Hoops by Hoots, "We have a Long John Silver's A&W Root Beer combo in Indiana."
34:39
[laughs] That's the one I'm most fascinated by, the A&W Root Beer, like, restaurants. Like, I used to go, uh, I used to go once in a while. My dad always liked to stop at 'em when we go visit his mom in Pennsylvania.
34:52
I hadn't seen 'em anywhere else outside of the, outside of Pennsylvania though. Just looked up, they still got 475 locations nationwide, including one in Boulder City. Oh, I did that with Roy Rogers.
35:02
Wanna hit the road after this? I do. Yes, absolutely, I would.
35:05
[laughs] I, I did that with Roy Rogers fast food restaurants on the East Coast, so I grew up on those, and apparently they still exist now, but I don't know if they're the same thing. What?
35:13
Uh, Jason Stark, who egregiously coupled me with you on the Steelers hate yesterday, he said, "Hey guys, we have an A&W, uh, A&W Root Beer KFC combo about a half hour from me."
35:23
Jason H11, "I also have a combo Taco Bell Long John Silver's near my office. Coincidentally, there's a [laughs] portalet company less than a mile away." [laughs] Coinc- coincidence? I think not.
35:32
Ronnie Roach, "I had a Long John Silver's A&W combined restaurant near me while growing up and loved it. No A&W anymore, but I go to Long John Silver's every now and then for that nostalgia. You guys are missing out.
35:43
Gonna get some today now." Um, Sparty, SpartyKY, "Believe it or not, Long John Silver's has a decent grilled salmon with green beans and slaw." [laughs] Oh, man. [laughs] And a very good piece of cheesecake.
35:55
[laughs] I do not wanna get that, sorry. You know what I'd like? I'd like some green beans. [laughs] Uh, this is from- Oh, man... let's see here. Oh, Bobby Gettys, "A couple days late here.
36:08
First of all, welcome back both of you. Matt Brown, Scott Seidenberg did great filling in." By the way, it was terrible form of me. I usually, the first thing I do when I come back is thank the host and whatever.
36:16
Did I do that this week? I don't think I did. No, I wasn't here on Monday, so I don't know. Yeah. I don't think I did. It's a shame on me. Matt Brown, awesome. Scott S- Seidenberg on Friday.
36:23
Uh, anyways, he says, "I have to bring up the French Open again. That men's final match was incredible. I'm on a family reunion in Ireland and we were at the Guinness Factory during the match.
36:31
I asked if any bars had tennis on and was laughed out of the room, so I had to settle for a back hallway with an outlet to watch on my phone. The things we do to watch these games." Good for you.
36:39
It was worth it though, wasn't it? I mean, if you can't ask about, like, tennis being on in Europe. Like, you're getting laughed out of the room in Europe? In Europe? Come on.
36:48
Ladies and gentlemen, it's time to talk some US Open golf. Oakmont begins in less than 48 hours, or less than 24 hours. Mm-hmm. Forgive me. Mm-hmm. I've lost track of time.
36:57
Sia Nejad joins us to discuss and give all his bets. He's a hosting analyst for SportsLine. You can follow him on Twitter at Sia Nejad, S-I-A N-E-J-A-D.
37:06
Always the best-dressed man in the room, or maybe he's not the best-dressed man, he just looks good in the clothes. He joins us- Oh, he's got gym shorts on underneath for sure. Yeah, well- He's a TV pro.
37:14
[laughs] Joins us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. What's happening, Sia? I wanna, I, like, if we could go, like, maybe 20 more minutes on the fast food conversation, just real quick.
37:22
First of all, good pull on Roy Rogers. Wendy's is my favorite fast food joint, unless you include Boston Market, which has historically been incredibly underrated, and I know they're closing in a lot of places.
37:33
Love me some Boston Market, love me some Wendy's. Uh, I'm gonna say I'm an old school Boston Market guy. When it was Boston Chicken, that's when it was great. Mm-hmm. When they went to Boston Market, mm.
37:43
Wow, how old are you? I've never even seen that. I am 174 years old. [laughs] I've never seen a Boston Chicken. No. I, I agree with you, a Boston Market being underrated.
37:52
Boston- I, I haven't seen one of those in years though either. Yeah, Boston Chicken was the '80s. Wow. Yeah, man. I don't know if you know this, but I remember the '80s. Why'd they go away from that?
37:59
Did they, all they served was chicken. Because they, because they- It's not like they really expanded the menu... they wanted to branch out at one point. Anyways, Siya- If I may. Yes.
38:06
Speaking of, r- real quick, speaking of the '80s, sorry, I, I always derail the show. That's okay. We're Clint Didier days away from NFL kickoff. You know what that means? Just wanna throw that out there.
38:14
That means we're 86 days away. Ah, there you go. I gotta stop pounding that table. Yeah. Siya, let me, before you get into the US Open, can I just ask you, what's the weather report?
38:25
Because, uh, this is sort of creeping in. What's, what's going on with that? You mean at the US Open at Oakmont? Yes, not your current weather. Yeah, I mean- Yes, at Oakmont. I, I like the weather here in DC? Yeah.
38:36
[laughs] Um, I, I think it's pretty mild over the, over the first two days.
38:40
I don't think we're gonna get, like I, I know there's gonna be some rain, uh, I believe on Friday, which could make conditions softer and, and could make scores lower, like better scores, uh, because of that.
38:50
I don't have a, a good read on the weather. I know Thursday's gonna be pretty mild, not much wind in the morning or the afternoon. Uh, my understanding is that we will see some rain Friday.
38:58
I don't know if it's going to suspend play or not, but, uh, yeah, that's, that is going to seem, uh, seep in there on Friday for sure. Yes. Yeah, we- Saturday, Sunday looking like precipitation.
39:07
Latest I saw, wet early this week a little bit, and when they were talking about that is guys have been prepping. Thursday, Friday were mainly supposed to be okay.
39:15
The weekend could get some weather, but it has been changing, I know, the forecast over the past 24 hours, so keep an eye on that. Mm-hmm. All right. Have at it, Siya.
39:22
Uh, we'll start with the outrights, or however you wanna go.
39:26
Well, last time I was on here I probably did what I'm about to do, and I'm gonna do the without Scottie Scheffler market, because I don't wanna deal with the guy that I think is going to win.
39:34
I also don't wanna bet him at plus 260 or plus 275, or even plus 300. Not that you can get it at that number at many places. I'm gonna go with Jon Rahm. I'm gonna go with Jon Rahm in the without Scottie Scheffler market.
39:45
That's my main play. Got a couple other names to kind of mention here, but Jon Rahm's playing really well.
39:50
Yes, he's playing well on Liv, and you can kind of like take that with a bit of a grain of salt, but I do think there's good evidence that he's gaining across all metrics on Liv, and then that, that would probably translate over to the PGA Tour as well.
40:01
But more importantly, w- we saw him almost chase down Scottie Scheffler about a month ago at the PGA Championship.
40:06
I think he's in great form, and wh- when we look at who can possibly win this tournament, yeah, I guess there are some underdogs that could kind of get in there.
40:14
But th- there's really five or six, maybe eight or nine guys that I think could win this tournament, and I, I think Jon Rahm and Bryson are at that t- top of that list once you get past Scottie Scheffler.
40:24
As far as Bryson is concerned, his number in the without market's like plus 700, and because I put Rahm and Bryson on the same playing field, at least here, uh, I, especially with respect to how good both of them are off the tee, uh, I'm just gonna go with the better number.
40:37
I'm gonna go with Jon Rahm. Other names that are sort of in the more underdog market here, Shane Lowry in the without market I do like on a tough course at 35 to 1.
40:48
And then in the without Scottie, Rory, Bryson, Rahm market, which of course you can also engage, I'm gonna go Sam Burns, certainly a hot hand at plus 3500.
40:56
So two in the without market, which, with Scottie, and, and one in Sam Burns in the without Scottie, Rory, Bryson, and Rahm market. How universal are the without Scottie markets? Are they in all books?
41:08
Are they in 50% of books? What would you say at this point? At this point they're in all the major books.
41:14
Now, not all books are doing w- I mean, I, guess it depends on what you think is a major book, but most of the major books have the without Scottie Scheffler market.
41:22
The without the, like f- like the four, the big four, that's something that a couple of books have been doing all year, uh, but not every book is doing that one.
41:30
And frankly, not a lot of people wanna engage that market anyway. Yeah. Well, that's where we are with Scottie Scheffler. No shock or guilt. Not as many out here in Vegas. Wow. That's, and that's why I ask.
41:40
C- Caesars and MGM. And that's why I ask, Siya, because we live in our own little, our own little ecosystem- Yeah... here in Nevada. All right. Uh, finishing, finishing positions, you have some bl- bets as well.
41:50
Yeah, I'll go back to Sam Burns, uh, at plus 190 to top 20. I mean, I, I love what he's doing off the tee.
41:55
I, I like his game for this course in general, but more importantly, 'cause I, I suppose we can't look at what he did off the tee last week necessarily.
42:02
These are completely different fairways in terms of how narrow they are. But the ball striking in general looks like we're, we're starting to see the old Sam Burns.
42:09
But what, what has never left Sam Burns is the putter, and when you get a tough course like this and you've got one of the best putters in the field in Sam Burns, I mean, he absolutely crushes it with that stick.
42:19
And I just feel like when we're looking at a really tough course, we need guys who can make clutch putts, and Sam Burns is that guy.
42:26
So at plus 190 for a top 20, because of this number, it's only a half a unit play for me. Um, but I think Sam Burns has top 10 upside, frankly, and it wouldn't shock me if, if he's in the top five.
42:36
Harris English, top 30. I think he's a popular play. You can get it at plus 115. These are all including ties. Harris English is just so underrated.
42:44
I hit him in the without Scottie Scheffler market when he was 110 to 1, uh, what was it, a, a few weeks back. Mm-hmm. Of course, that was a three-way split with Bryson and, and, uh, maybe Davis Riley.
42:52
But Harris English, super underrated, particularly underrated off the tee. Good in, in, uh, in tough courses, tough conditions. Uh, top 30 very reasonable at plus 115. All right.
43:02
And then top South Korean, Si Woo Kim, plus 225. I like how the game is trending for him. He's very accurate off the tee, which I do think is gonna help tremendously.
43:12
The length isn't great, but when you're talking about who he's up against, it's Sungjaim, Tom Kim, and Ben An. Ben An has some length. He's not really good anywhere else.
43:19
Sungjaim's been so bad on approach, and Tom Kim's just been so bad for like a year. So I think Si Woo Kim's coming in with the best form, has a good profile, can certainly putt as well.
43:29
You worry about the blow-up spot, but again, this is plus 225. This is one where you could put even less than a half a unit to win a full unit here. All right.
43:36
Would not be an official Siya Najad segment without his first round leader plays, a, a branding that he did not want, but he's too good at it not to have it. What do you got?
43:46
It's, it's ironic, too, because this year I haven't been as hot with first round leaders, but I've been very hot in the outright market, so, you know, do with that what you will.
43:53
But I got five here, all between 50 and 90 to 1. We're gonna go with Shane Lowry, a guy that's good on tough courses, and I think is gonna keep it in the fairway and keep it in front of him.
44:01
Harris English, I just talked about. He's 75 to 1. Uh, Ryan Fox, ride the hot hand, and he's been more accurate off the tee. I, I think he could be still really good for round one, if not all four rounds, at 80 to 1.
44:12
And then two kind of long shots, Ryan Gerard, Adam Scott, at 90 to 1. 90 to 1.
44:17
Yeah, Ryan Gerard, though, you've seen it as much as I have, Siya, after the first round, how often he's on that first page of that leaderboard.
44:23
I don't know what it's, what, what it's with, uh, him in the first round, but man, he's been incredible there. Siya- Yeah, spike potential's what we're looking for there. Yep. Appreciate it as always, man.
44:32
Thank you so much. Thank you, gentlemen. @siyanajad, S-I-A N-A-J-A-D. Always a pleasure to have Siya on the show. Uh, we'll come back.
44:40
More of those Major League Baseball props to get to 60 wins, to get to 70, to get to 80, to get to 100. That's next on the Numbers Game right here at VSiN.
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