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Jun 11, 2025
A Numbers Game | June 11, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | June 11, 2025 | Hour 2
00:00
44:48
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:10
Hour number two of the Numbers Game at VSiN, eSports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander.
0:21
It's Kelly Billin, everybody, producer number nine. So much more than a producer. Heyo. So much more. Still to come this hour, Ben Wilson will join us, talk College World Series.
0:29
I get so excited every time Ben joins the show. Ben Wilson. And JBT, is this true? Co-host of Money Moves will join us to talk, uh, National Basketball Association. Right, right here.
0:37
I was gonna say right here, but right here- No... 'cause I'll be right there. You'll be awkwardly in the middle. That's right. Mony in the Middle. Who, who was, what was that show? Mal- Malcolm in the Middle.
0:46
Yeah, but Mony in the Middle is way cooler. What's Malcolm up to these days? Oh, you know, living off of Malcolm in the Middle. Freddie Munez, right? Was that his name? Frankie Mun- Muniz.
0:55
Yeah, or it's Muniz or something like that. Oh, man, we're close. Uh, we get s- [laughs] We get tweets that beat me to the book.
1:00
Brian Morianan, "If you factor in waiting for the MLB Awards to be announced, then Will Hill was accurate in saying the season is eternal. They'll be announcing the winners- [laughs]... at spring training this year."
1:10
That's absolutely true. [laughs] Yeah, Thanksgiving. [laughs] Primetime, "Cowboys_Cubs1, yo. Hey, man.
1:16
I remember crushing old fashions and getting into brawls with my buds Donny and Brooke at Long John Silver's back in the day." Yeah.
1:22
"Pretty, pretty sure that's how the term was born, similar to Kramer's explanation of the whip party origins." Uh- That's a, that's a classy cocktail to be having before a brawl outside a Long John Silver's.
1:33
Pick10, uh, quoted me. He says, "I don't wanna get that." [laughs] Agreed, talking about the string beans, the green beans at Long John Silver's.
1:40
Hey, you know, I really am in the mood for some green from fast food green beans. Uh, MoneylineMarv, "The triple combo of KFC, Pizza Hut, and Taco Bell is the high point of Yum! Brands going for max exposure."
1:50
That's what it is. Yeah. It's some Yum! Brands thing. Yeah. Jamie Leyva, "The best thing on the Long John Silver's menu is chicken. Maddy Humans can attest to this. Have a fantastic day, gentlemen."
1:58
I mean, if you told me I had to go eat at one today, I'd probably order the chicken too. And Brian M adds, "Just looking at-" Definitely not the salmon. [laughs] No. I'm not doing that.
2:06
Brian M, "Just looking at him, Sia does not seem like a fast food expert, and that is a compliment." Yeah, no, he's no fax food, fast food expert. Yeah. Nemesis Enforcer, "Same with Roy Rogers, Gil.
2:16
Saw one on the way to BWI just past Bowie, Maryland. Fun fact, I used to work at the one at The Shops in downtown DC. Doctored birth certificate to work at 14. I needed some Jordans my folks wouldn't spring for.
2:27
Put in two months tops." Nice job. Frank Kearney. See, this is the thing. We, we'll bring up something random like the Guinness Factory we were just talking about from another- Yeah, yeah...
2:36
another tweeter, and Frank Kearney has all the answers. He says, "I believe Guinness has a no TVs mentality to promote conversation. Baltimore opened a Guinness and did the same thing." No. No. Hmm. M- ma.
2:48
What, what a drop there. [laughs] What a flex. That was like whoever called me out yesterday for Carbone. Yeah. It was like, "Yeah, I was watching game one, yeah, the other day, Gil, and had to run outside of Carbone.
2:57
Yeah." Mike Goosh. What do you know the TV policy at the Guinness factory? That was quite the flex. That's amazing. Quite a flex.
3:03
Mike Goosh, "Gil, my first job, not counting a paper route, was at Boston Chicken, making a whopping $4.25 an hour. The food there was legit." What? Rob Moreno just texted me something that blew my mind. What's that?
3:18
F- uh, Frankie Muniz is a professional driver in the Craftsman Truck Series. Oh, that sounds right. Yeah. That sounds right to you? Sounds right to me. [laughs] Fred Currier. I can confirm this. Wow.
3:30
"Someone should have texted Maddy Humans on this epic fast food conversation today." And we should have. K James, he is the king of fast food, of course.
3:38
Medical- What, what are we, like, a month away from the, that release? Yeah. Maddy Humans, medical marvel. Uh, K James, "A&W created bacon on cheeseburgers with the Teen Burger."
3:47
Torch D, "Boston Chicken, congrats on your AARP membership." Listen, Boston Chicken- [laughs] Boston Chicken folded in 1995. Really? That long ago?
3:59
[laughs] I just remember I have seen so many Boston Markets, never saw Boston Chicken. Boston Chicken, dude, that was the, that was the, that was the jam. All right. Let's go to these, the, so Kelly put these out.
4:09
These were the baseball. These are ML- MLB team wins props. These are available at DraftKings.
4:13
So now sometimes Kelly will throw some stuff at me, and then I, what I will do is, what he will expect me to do is be prepared to talk about them on the show. Here's what happens.
4:22
I wake up in the morning at, uh, 4:55 AM, and I take a look at it, and I'm like, "Oh, I'll keep them busy." And I do this whole, like, deep dive into it, and then you guys have to scramble to put them into graphics.
4:31
That's kind of how the show works. Yeah. Basically- Yeah... it's like when you're assigned homework when you're, like, 13 years old, and you're like- Wow... "I'll get to it an hour before the class."
4:40
And that's how I did. Yeah. I would cram, and I would be like, "What do I need to know?" [laughs] Um, but here's the deal. So I do a deep dive on all these 'cause I treat this very seriously.
4:46
So we did one earlier, which was the Dodgers to get to 100 wins. The Dodgers to get to 100-plus regular season wins is minus 330. So by the way, here's the first thing you need to know.
4:57
There is no no option to any of these. Correct. That's the first red flag, by the way. But- I mean, you could go into win totals... you could, but not in this, in this particular market, they don't exist. Right.
5:09
So team to record 100-plus regular season wins, the Dodgers minus 330, and we talked about this a little earlier. Uh, the Dodgers are currently, uh, 40 and 28.
5:20
They're kind of supposed to be that based on things like Pythagoras and, and base runs, but they gotta go 60 and 30 for the rest of the way, which is a 638 win percentage, which is a bigger win percentage than they have now at 588 with a plus 65 run differential.
5:36
They do have an easy schedule, but I just wanna point this out about schedules. I think when we talk about schedules in football, that's one thing.
5:44
I think if we're late in the season in baseball, that's another thing when we compare schedules. But I think the whole sort of act of looking at long-term schedules, like we do it monthlies, right?
5:55
We look at the schedule to see who's gonna get most wins, but when you're talking about the br- you know, the balance of a season, when we're talking something like 115 games-ish
6:04
I just think that's more of a fool's errand than anything. 'Cause the way that baseball is, it's too- Yeah... it's too random to really...
6:10
And by the way, the difference between, like, the team with the hardest, um, you know, uh, strength of schedule versus, like, the 10th, it's only a matter of percentage points anyway.
6:20
So anyway, the point with the Dodgers is I'm not laying minus 330 on them going 60 and 30 for the rest of the way. So that ain't happening on that. Let's look at some of these others, though.
6:30
So the Dodgers are the only one that you have the team to record 100-plus regular season wins market, uh, applies to.
6:36
But how about team to record, uh, let's start from the bottom, 60-plus regular season wins, the Chicago White Sox, who we talked about earlier. Chicago White Sox are 23 and 44 currently.
6:48
Um, Pythagorean base runs, well, Pythag specifically, Pythagorean theorem, Bill James, um, and again, all this done this morning as I sent up to the previous show, like, "This, this'll keep you guys busy," they should be 28 and 39, right?
7:00
But here's the bottom line, they gotta go 37 and 58 the rest of the way. So they gotta go with a 389 win percentage. They're currently at a 343 win percentage. They're a better team than their record indicates.
7:14
Yes, they have the hardest strength of schedule remaining, uh, for the rest of the season at 522, but again, I downgrade that. I might actually play the White Sox at plus 200 to get to 60 wins.
7:26
This, to me, of a bunch of these that we're going through, is one of the better bets. But ag- 'cause again, it all comes down to the price. Two to one odds? Sure, maybe I would play that one.
7:35
Teams to record 70-plus regular season wins. Let's look at the Pirates and the Athletics. Pirates are 27 and 41.
7:42
Sequencing, they've got the worst of it, but they still have to go 43 and 51, a 457 win percentage the rest of the way to get to 70 wins. They're only at a 397 clip right now.
7:55
I do not trust the Pittsburgh Pirates at minus 170 specifically to get to 70 wins. If this price was different, maybe, but I'm not laying minus 170 the rest of the year in hopes that the Buccos get to 70 wins.
8:10
No, thank you. Nor would I do that with the Athletics at plus 110, who, by the way, are 26 and 43 right now.
8:18
Um, Pythagorean theorem has them actually a little worse than that, but they've gotta go 44 and 49 the rest of the way to get to 70 wins.
8:28
I don't, in that ballpark in Sacramento, which is again, just a, uh, a bandbox, I'm not playing the Athletics even at plus 110 to get to 70 wins. I don't wanna live through that bet.
8:39
So no thank you on the Pirates to get to 70, no thank you on the Athletics to get to 70. How about some of these teams to get to 80 wins? Uh, because that market exists here. We have a bunch of these. We have six teams.
8:50
The Brewers. All right, how about the Brewers? They're currently 36 and 32. It's about where they ought to be. But to get to 80 wins, Kelly, they gotta go 44 and 50 the rest of the way.
9:01
So you're not asking them to, to be as good as they've been, right? It's 468 is all, is the win percentage that they have to do remaining. But it's minus 295. No, thank you.
9:14
I'm not betting that on even them to go 44 and 50. Again, if that was a different price, maybe you could coax me into it. Yeah. But there's no way at minus 295. And not an easy strength of schedule, right? Right.
9:26
Um, Royals, below that. Again, they're 34 and 33. To get to 80 wins, they've gotta go 46 and 49, so about the pace they've been on, right? Pythagoras base runs has them right about where they should be.
9:39
But minus 270, I'm not doing that. I'm not l- I'm not laying that number. Some of these are terrible numbers. Uh, the Braves are interesting, right?
9:48
I went into it thinking I would have a bet on the Braves, 'cause the Braves are the ultimate underachievers, right? They're 28 and 38. Pythagoras has them at 34 and 32. Sequencing has them at 34 and 32 as well.
10:00
But they still, the bottom line is that's their record. To get to 80 wins, they've gotta go 52 and 44. 542 win percentage, okay, maybe I'd be interested. But minus 225, no. And there's no no price on any of these.
10:13
Well, what, and what's their... I'm trying to pull it up right now, but do you, you have any idea, like, what their make the playoff odds are at this point?
10:21
No, I don't, but I'm saying there's, there's other markets where you can exploit these better. You just happen to throw these at me. Right.
10:26
So, so far the only bet I have is the White Sox, but there's a couple more that I would consider here. Let's, let's, uh, change the screen to the other 80-plus regular season, uh, wins possibilities if we could, guys.
10:36
Uh, we have the Rangers and the Red Sox, um, and we also have, let me get it here off the, uh, the old computer. There it is. Um, okay. The Red Sox, they're 33 and 36. They've gotta go 47 and 46 the rest of the way.
10:51
They're actually an underachieving team. Normally, I would say at minus 145 I'd take a shot at it, but they don't have Bregman, so I'm not going to do that one either.
11:00
The Reds and the Rangers are the only other ones, along with the White Sox, that I might consider. The Reds, who are 35 and 33, bit of an underachiever thus far, according to, uh, base runs and, and Pythagoras.
11:12
They gotta go 45 and 49 the rest of the way.
11:16
Yes, the strength of schedule is hard by comparison, but I'm gonna, uh, like with the White Sox, I'm actually gonna ignore that and say that at minus 135, you're only asking the Reds to go 479 win percentage the rest of the way.
11:29
That I might consider. And then the Rangers I might consider, who are 32 and 35. They've gotta go 48 and 47, so basically just a 500 team the rest of the way to get to 80 wins, and they're only priced at minus 125.
11:41
So bottom line, White Sox, Reds, Rangers, the only ones that I would consider. The rest of them, forget it. Some of them are, are offensive. Coming back.
11:51
[upbeat music] A numbers game VSiN, the sports betting network Hey, in case you haven't heard, VSiN is hitting the road for the College World Series in Omaha.
12:12
Road tripping. Omaha. We'll be live tomorrow through Saturday, broadcasting straight from Rocco's, the iconic home of the Jello Shot Challenge. Uh-oh.
12:21
Catch money moves and follow the money live from Omaha with the sights, sounds, and best bets from the tournament. Head to vsin.com/cws for all the details and a free College World Series betting guide. How about that?
12:33
I, I can't as a producer just, just not break down the graphics sometimes. Like, why is that Jeep on the baseball field? Someone get it off the field, Gil. Is that what that is, a Jeep?
12:43
Yeah, it's driving right out on there. Oh, it sure is. Man. I'm looking forward to having Stormy and JBT on with us from Omaha tomorrow.
12:49
It'd also be very comical if the entire VSiN crew that's going out there had to load up in one single Jeep. What's the Jello Shot thing? There's a challenge going?
12:56
Oh yeah, there's a, there's the, uh, the, uh, the bar that we're gonna be doing the shows from that they do the running count for basically every college, uh, every year of how many Jello Shots people from that college have, have consumed.
13:09
Oh. I don't, I don't think, uh, d- drink [laughs] is the right word. Consumed is probably the right word with Jello Shots. Oh, look we, uh, look I just see the screen right here.
13:17
Odds to win VSiN's Jello Shot challenge, Derek Stevens is your short shot. Let me just tell you this right now, that is not short enough. [laughs] Bythebooks.bet. I saw them talking about this this morning.
13:28
[laughs] Bythebooks.bet. J- JBT's very insulted by, uh, the, by his odds, I think.
13:32
Jensen Lewis from ByTheBooks next at plus 650, Paulie Howard plus 750, Mitch Moss eight to one, JBT 10 to one, Stormy 12 to one, and what? Mike Palm is 250 to one? Yeah. That's way, that's the long shot right there.
13:46
You gotta, gotta put a flyer on that. Yeah, these were shifting. There was a lot of tweets during the show.
13:50
Uh, I, I believe I tweeted in I would be like Tiger Woods in his prime odds if, uh, if I wasn't benched for this event. [laughs] Uh, Derek, Derek, though belongs at the top. I was also texting with Jensen.
14:01
There was, uh, there's really only a couple times I've really run into, into, into some problems, uh, with keeping up with people, Gil. Once was with my Navy Seal cousin and his, and his buddies in Annapolis, Maryland.
14:14
Oh boy, and I thought I could keep up with those guys. [laughs] That did not work out well. And, uh, then with some professional baseball players in Port St. Lucie, Florida during spring training.
14:23
You might, you know, maybe you've heard stories about Wade Boggs. Oh boy, these guys can throw some back. Oh, yeah. So yeah, it's, uh- Really? I, Jensen, I, I'm not, I'm not going against your price either, buddy.
14:32
Jello Shot thing explains why I wasn't invited, I guess. I'd still need a real drink though. I'd be sober- Here's what I would do. I would, I would slap you on the butt and be like, "Go get 'em, Kelly."
14:40
[laughs] That's right. You'd be my hype man. We get, we get tweets.
14:43
Wet Willie Colon, "Things we are waiting for Kelly to do on air, Drop It Like It's Hot explosion, Dancing with the Country Club intro, and the Sam Cassell celebration." You forgot tap dancing.
14:52
Sometimes when the, uh- [laughs]... when the crew needs us to filibuster, they go, "Tap dance for a while." I'm like, "Kelly should get his top hat and his cane." Uh, Vegas Vice.
14:59
That would be the most difficult one to do still. Uh, oh, this is a question for Ben Wilson. "Can you ask Ben Wilson why the top two favorites in the College World Series get matched up in the first round?
15:08
Is it because the one to 64 season brackets start with the super regionals and stay the same for the whole tournament?"
15:14
Ladies and gentlemen, we bring in Ben Wilson, uh, on the show, uh, to talk College World Series with us. You can follow him at ben_wilson_1. He makes it as complicated as possible with underscores.
15:26
Uh, but he is here, uh, not only as a, uh, VSiN host, but also as a tremendous play-by-play broadcaster. We enjoy his work doing that. How you doing, Ben? I'm great.
15:36
I would love to volunteer to do the play-by-play for the Jello Shot undertaking if, if Kelly were to be there, because I think that would, uh, that would- Yeah... that would be a highlight of my career undoubtedly.
15:45
[laughs] It would be. I used to ask Brent all the time, I go, "Brent, where does the, uh, where does the Manscape ads land in your tier of great play-by-play?" Um, all right, Ben. That'd be up there.
15:56
What, what about the question here? Is that correct what, uh, what, uh, Vegas Vice was assuming here?
16:00
The reason that LSU and Arkansas, for those who missed it, we talked about this yesterday, there are six different conferences here. Uh, there's an independent as well.
16:07
The only conference that has two teams in, LSU and Arkansas, they're the only short shots going into the regionals that were kind of, you know, favorites in all of this, and they play each other.
16:18
So if one of them is to win the College World Series, they would essentially have to do it from a loser bracket.
16:25
E- exactly, right, and it's why you somet- I mean, the way the, the super regionals also play out, there's no reseeding, so it's why you ended up with Murray State, a four seed, against Duke, who was a two seed in their own regional going to Duke.
16:37
This stuff is all sort of predetermined beforehand. And it's why it, for, for Arkansas here, I mean, they're the favorite, and I've, of, of all these, I've seen three of the eight teams in Omaha in person this year.
16:47
Arkansas far and away has been the most impressive in person to watch.
16:51
But think about in supers, Arkans- it had to eliminate Tennessee, who at the time was the third short shot on the odds board, and they, they did that in pretty dominant fashion, won both games, and now they'll basically have to eliminate LSU, who's the second favorite.
17:04
You could probably argue Tennessee and LSU, two of the top five teams in the country, and that wouldn't even guarantee Arkansas the title. That's how crazy difficult this path is.
17:12
So it's one of those things where I don't know that I'd, you know, plus 195, not worth jumping in on at this point.
17:18
My strategy, especially for these teams that are a little shorter, uh, you gotta just play 'em game by game if you like them and wanna exploit certain match-ups, because as we've seen in years past,
17:28
trying to monetize at any sort of future gets really tricky in this double elimination format. You know, I, I had, I found this out the hard way at TCU a few years ago. I think you remember that, Gil. Yes.
17:37
And I'm thinking, "Oh, I got a 40 to one ticket, you know, to win a few grand. Let me start monetizing, you know, start hedging." They get into the losers bracket.
17:42
Well, TCU wins like three straight losers bracket [laughs] games, and I'm going, "Uh-oh, uh, this is starting to, uh, to get a little hairy."
17:49
So that's the one word of advice I would give is at this point, unless you've got a super great number long shot from earlier in the year or at the start of the post-season, I'd kind of let those things just ride out because it's really hard to know when to jump in, how to treat the double elimination format here.
18:04
Uh, but I do still feel like at this point Arkansas is your rightful favorite despite the very tough draw. Yeah.
18:09
What Ben is referring to, by the way, the way that the, uh, the way that the sort of fakakta bracket, uh, goes moving forward, you can withstand two more losses to win the title.
18:19
So you could lose prior to the best of three championship one time, and then you could theoretically lose obviously in a best of three one of those games as well. But until then, you can only lose once, right?
18:31
So that's the thing with this. Uh, if I said to you though, Ben, I'm like, "All right, Ben- I get it, Arkansas is definitely the rightful fa- the rightful short shot here, as you say.
18:39
But if I said, "Okay, you must take a flyer on one of the long shots," which team would that be? Just for giggles.
18:46
Yeah, it, yeah, it's gotta be from bracket one, which is cer- certainly the weaker of the two, and it's how they've got it.
18:52
Coastal Carolina, Oregon State, Arizona, Louisville, um, in that order are your four teams, and it's gotta be Louisville for me.
18:58
I mean, that's kind of been, uh, the, the team for me as a team who had zero expectations from the start of the year.
19:04
They're six to one to win the Vanderbilt region, who is the number one overall seed, um, in that region. And they've continued every, every single step of the way to...
19:13
And not only that, I mean, they've, they've had great, uh, depth of pitching, and I'm gonna bet them in game one. They're an underdog to Oregon State, who, uh, I, I thought of...
19:21
It's funny, in that bracket one, guys, you only had one single favorite from their regional. And I'm not talking super regional, this is just from the regionals purely.
19:31
Org- uh, Oregon State is the only favorite from their regional who's made it into this bracket one. And I'd argue they probably got the luckiest of any team.
19:38
They, they got a gift from, unfortunately, a sad choke job from Kelly's alma mater- Whoa... up in Corvallis. That should have been a seminal, uh, role.
19:45
But, uh, look, I th- Florida State was, was clearly, looked like the better team for, you know, like 25 of the 27 outs in a couple of those games. Um, didn't work out. So I'll continue to roll with Louisville.
19:55
If, if you're taking a flyer here, uh, there's definitely a team from bracket one that might be a surprise. Coastal Carolina probably should be the favorite.
20:02
Um, I'd like to play them in an under with Arizona when tho- those totals come out for game one, uh, because Coastal has the best pitching here, uh, depth-wise of teams remaining.
20:11
But it's gotta be Louisville, and you can get them plus 135 right now, game one over Oregon State.
20:16
Likely gonna see, uh, Patrick Forbes, who, uh, when I saw him in person opening day against Texas, it was 98 with the fastball, [laughs] 80- like 89 change-up and an 83 slider.
20:25
It was, it was pretty nasty stuff for a college kid. Wow. I'm pretty sure Ben Wilson just called you a choker, by the way. Hmm. Yeah. Callin'- I heard anyway on TFIS. I heard. It wasn't directed directly at Kelly.
20:34
Yeah, I think it works. That's what I heard. That's what I heard. Um- You think, uh, Arkansas, LSU, did we, do we just get the SEC chance out of the way early? Like, they just go back and forth? Huh. Uh- SEC. Yeah.
20:45
Uh, so wait, wait, I wanna go to the first games then. Okay. So y- you mentioned, so let's go through those again. You just said plus 135, you would play on who again? Uh, that would be Louisville for me. Okay.
20:55
So plus, uh, plus 135 over Oregon State, and we showed those, those futures odds. I would love to see a market for just to make the College World Series final.
21:04
Uh, but, and if you, you know, theoretically chop that in half, you'd get Louisville at around plus 850. Uh, that would, it probably wouldn't be that because the bracket two is viewed to be stronger.
21:12
But I do like Louisville to, uh, to come out of that. I think it's Louisville, Coastal Carolina who end up your final two, um, in bracket, in bracket one there.
21:20
And then, yeah, the, the lines are not out yet for totals, but I mean, Coastal Carolina, they've got, you know, Jacob Morrison, Riley Eickhoff. Whoever they go with is their two top starting pitchers.
21:29
They've both been amazing throughout the entire post-season, each with sub three ERAs.
21:33
Uh, and Arizona's bullpen has, has shown a tremendous amount of growth from last year, when that was kind of a consistent weakness for the Wildcats and, um, and Chip Hale, their head coach.
21:41
So I, I like that game to go under. We generally see this park play. It's a big park, definitely plays more to pitching and defense compared to the, the band boxes of regionals and super regionals.
21:51
So I generally look for some unders, especially early in the College World Series.
21:56
Everybody's been hyped up about all these overs that hit earlier on in the tournament, but it is a different ballgame once we go to Omaha and Rocco's. All right.
22:03
So one play and one looking for a total play in bracket one, uh, in the Louisville, Oregon State games and Arizona, Coastal Carolina games respectively. Uh, nothing in the, uh, in bracket two for now from Ben.
22:15
When is your next play-by-play gig before you leave, Ben? When, when can we look for you?
22:19
Well, well, I will be, uh, I will hopefully be seeing Kelly Bidlin, and possibly you, Gil, uh, this weekend, because I will be at the wonderful Lee's Family Forum, Henderson, Nevada. Oh, yeah.
22:28
Saturday night for the Vegas Nighthawks- Wow... and the Bay Area Panthers. Matchup of top three teams in the Indoor Football League's Western Conference. A lot on the line, guys. Omaha.
22:38
We're at, we're at the Dollar Loan Center Arena, baby. Is that what they call it still? Whatever they changed it to. Whatever they changed it to. Yeah, yeah.
22:44
Uh, there was an, uh, a small rights, uh, name change, but it's all, it's all good, yeah. Ben, always a pleasure. Thank you, man. Appreciate it. Great to see you guys. Ben Wilson, everybody.
22:52
We'll come back JVT on the NBA next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:06
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23:51
We got tweets at Beat of the Book. So many here. Terry Elkins, "Don't think we hear much from Jason Weingarten now. Wait till the kids start coming. He won't have any time for us." That's a good point.
24:00
Didn't think about that. Uh, PrimetimeYo, "Looking forward..." Oh, I messed this up. He said, "Looking forward to you moderating the He-Man/Iga Haters Club today with Ben and Kelly.
24:10
More sour rooting from country club and K. Michael Bidlin on the Iga last week while you were on assignment." Wow. Well, first of all- Disrespectful...
24:18
first of all, I never go there, but I did bet Sabalenka in that match. Ah. Good, uh, good, uh, good for you that Iga decided to hit the ball into the stands third set.
24:27
Scuba Scott, "I don't know if you know this, Arthur Treacher's is being resurrected in the greater Cleveland area. My all-time favorite fish joint. Oh, the malt vinegar for the french fries."
24:34
You ever heard of Arthur Treacher's Fish and, Fish and Chips? Uh, yes. Never eaten at one, though. Oh, how old are you? Last name Nash.
24:41
Put some respect on the one chicken, four shrimp combo with hush puppies at Long John's. And Jamie Leva, "Mony in the Middle reference and the young Kelly Bidlin goes to Malcolm in the Middle. I am crying laughing.
24:52
Never break these two up. I Mony love this duo." Uh, we also got this from, uh, Mike Alvarez I still can't believe that kid's driving trucks or something professionally.
25:00
He says, "Finally, I cash my Mony in the Middle ticket." And String Fellow Hawk, "Mony love. Hey, Gil, when you toss a musical reference to Kelly, do you feel like you've tossed a tennis ball into a well?
25:09
You know it's not coming back." Yeah. Tell me about it.
25:12
Ladies and gentlemen, live in studio, co-host of Money Moves, weekdays right after this program, with Stormy Boditoni and Jonathan Vontobel, it's Jonathan Vontobel, everybody. How you doing, JBT? I'm good. I'm good. Um,
25:25
I mean, I only have eight minutes now, less than 30 seconds with you guys, so I'll just rattle these things off really quickly, the things that I learned in listening on my way in. Mm.
25:32
Uh, I learned that Matt Youmans, uh, is one of the chosen people, as you allege that the chosen people were not allowed to go to Omaha. And since Matt Youmans is not there- [laughs] That's right...
25:40
I did not know that he was a practicing Jewish man- That's very correct... so that's a very good thing to learn. Thank you. Um- Thank you for that...
25:45
I, I think that Long John Silver's is one of the places in which it is most well-known for the thing it's not its main staple. The only thing I've heard about Long John's is that the chicken planks are the way to go.
25:56
Planks? Okay. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it's another thing for like chicken friend- Okay... like chicken fingers or whatever, but chicken planks. Matt Youmans, again, uh, the Jewish man, does swear by the chicken planks.
26:04
I mean, if I, I, if I had to walk into one today- Yeah... that's probably what I would order. Sure. Or like hush puppies. It's just like fried dough. Yeah, or hush puppies. Right? Yes. Yeah. Like, that's about it.
26:11
So those are the things I had. Is there, is there less of a Jewish man than Matt Youmans that you can even conjure up in your head? [laughs] Yeah, I know. I couldn't think so.
26:17
Here's, here's what I wanna ask you about before we get your NBA analysis. JBT, are you a little offended by this, uh, Vsins Jello Shot Challenge odds that you got here? Well, so as I...
26:25
Look, as I had, uh, texted the guys over at, um, our morning show, Vsins By The Books, uh, a simple KYP, know your personnel. Yeah. Uh, this is not so much offense to me.
26:35
There is a person on this board that does not drink that is favored over four others. Uh, Paulie Howard is not an alcohol drinker [laughs] and yet he's plus 750.
26:44
[laughs] Uh, as it was pointed out by our former colleague, Jeff Fogel, these odds also do not add up to 80%. So I did redo the math. [laughs] That's so great. Um, my market has a modest 1.9% hold.
26:54
[laughs] And, um, we have included the field and Bill 80 as part of the selection. Yeah, why'd Bill get left out? Oh, yeah. That's true. Yeah. Uh, correct.
27:02
And I do think the play is the field, because the field includes all of our wonderful Vsins producers, a couple of which are already up there, um, and the circuit employees, which are also included on the trip.
27:12
Uh, that, them among, uh, or among them would be, uh, Wilbo, AKA Big Balls, who- Oh, yeah... I believe is there for pleasure and not business- Ah... which has to be accounted for. Field...
27:21
As I told, uh, another one of our former colleagues, Sam Penianovic, who said that Mike Palm was being disrespected, my response was, "Uh, Mike is a pro. This is a business trip.
27:29
He will not get sloppy like some of the others out there." Mm. True dat. Thus the odds. So I think the real play is the field, is getting some of these circuit employees. The best- Yeah, I... Absolutely.
27:36
The best part of that breakdown, without question, was the fact that Jeff Fogel was very upset- [laughs]... with the, with the poor math of the bookmaker. Right. I responded.
27:45
I mean, he'd even responded to my modest 1.9% hold. Like, I, we... That's a, that's the book you wanna shock. Yeah. Jeff was like, "We can't have this." Yeah. "This is poorly done." All right. Yeah.
27:53
Um, I don't know if you know this, John. Uh, it's the NBA finals, game three- Is it still going? It is still going. Yeah. Oh, okay. I had no idea. By the way, about- It's been a week off...
28:00
about that, 'cause we, we, we do content, right? And so, like, on the one hand, it's like okay, great, we can still talk about it- Right... 'cause it keeps going.
28:08
On the other hand, I kind of look at it the other way, which is all right, it's kind of awkward that we're still talking about it. We're still talking about game three.
28:15
So I don't know where you fall on that, basically just from your job standpoint. But from a betting standpoint, it's at five now.
28:21
Thunder, who have not covered a road game yet in this postseason run, five-point favorites at Indiana. Total remains right in the 228 range. What are you doing here? And do you still have OKC Thunder futures? No.
28:33
That, it was all loaded up for the Western Conference. Okay. As, uh, Charles Barkley named it, the Western Conference, or the Oklahoma City Invitational. Um, so I- It was in the bud...
28:40
yeah, it was, I was all loaded up on, uh, re- my, uh, uh, my apologies to LaMelo Ball there. I, I was all loaded up on, uh, OKC to win the West. So I am free.
28:49
I do have still alive just the series to end in five, so we're still mathematically there. They could win theoretically three, uh, now three straight to get this thing done.
28:57
Um, look, I know they haven't covered a road game, but to me it's Thunder or nothing. I, I understand the trepidation about how they've played on the road.
29:04
Um, I understand that the role players have not played particularly well on offense when they've been away from home. Their three-point shooting as a whole has actually been very poor.
29:12
They're only shooting 36% from beyond the arc for the post-season, and when they go on the road, they're sub-30%. I understand all those things.
29:18
But the constant for Oklahoma City throughout this entire post-season, throughout the two games in the series, they're an incredible defensive team, and that is going to show up every single game.
29:26
And I think one of the things that Indiana really has a tough time with here in this series that is, as has been evidenced through the first two games, dude, they can't get out and run against this team.
29:35
And I just don't think that changes just because you're in Indiana now. I don't think all of a sudden the transition lanes open up.
29:41
You know, maybe the team performs a little bit worse on offense and them being the Thunder, but I think they're gonna be able to defend. I think they're gonna be able to hold them down again.
29:47
I think Tyrese is gonna have another quiet game because that's just what he's up against here. It's Lou Dort, it's Alex Caruso. Oh, cool, you managed to switch and get Kason Wallace on you, or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
29:58
Like, there's just too many personnel guys that they could throw out there they're gonna feel comfortable with on Tyrese. To me, it would be OKC or nothing.
30:04
I understand the market's starting to head in that direction, 'cause you mentioned they haven't covered a road game. Yeah. They got a negative 6.2 net rating in non-garbage time on the road.
30:11
But I think that they're good enough on defense, and I think Shai really found his game in game two. They don't have anybody for him to defend him, and I think that's a very big part of what we're gonna see.
30:18
I would imagine the answer to this will be yes, and it'll annoy you more than it annoys me, 'cause you watch, you know, the regular season so, so carefully.
30:25
But this, uh, I, I mentioned this yesterday with Kelly, which is the, the mainstream media or the sports talk radio thing, is Tyrese Haliburton a superstar or not? Yeah.
30:32
It's like this whole narrative they wanna come up with. So if what you're saying happens, right? Like, their, OKC's defense is so good that it just basically shuts him down to, uh, to, to, you know, the majority degree.
30:44
If, if he comes out of this playoffs with some kind of negativity associated with him, isn't that the biggest bunch of bunk ever? It's- Like, this has been amazing, no matter what happens from here.
30:53
There is, I, no question about this, and this is not hyperbole in anyth- in any way, shape, or form. I think this is the greatest single run of clutch play we've ever seen in the NBA post-season- Oh, 100% agree...
31:03
for more, from a single player. 100% agree. And that should be remembered. Yes. I, you know, I said this after game one when I was with Stormy.
31:07
I, I, like, I think, I'm paraphrasing my words, but it was no matter how this series ends going forward, even if they lose four games, this should be a run that should be remembered forever.
31:15
The fact that he has a game-tying or game-winning shot in every single one of the series that he has played up to this point.
31:20
The fact that I believe that they are now 8-1 in games in this post-season that have entered clutch time, five or fewer f- uh, minutes, five, within five points on either side.
31:27
The fact that I think including this post-season and in the regular season, this team now I think is 33 and 15 in clutch games. This, th- they're, they're incredible. This should be remembered forever. So I'm with you.
31:38
Yeah. Like, I, I hate the way our media works. I think it's just mind-numbing conversation that doesn't make the game any better or the way that people view it any better. But that is ridiculous.
31:47
We're gonna do it Which is stupid. Yeah. But I'm with you. I, I, this should be remembered forever what the, what this guy did. We, we, we were talking about it yesterday too.
31:53
There's ju- there's just a misunderstanding of what Tyrese Haliburton is as a player too. Yeah. He's not...
31:59
Him and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are extremely different guards in the NBA, and it's just, I mean, it's become a bit of a trend in the NBA, but you don't see as many pass first distributing point guards, which is what Tyrese Haliburton ideally would like to do, and not have to put up 40 points, uh, a game.
32:17
And he's not gonna be a guy that's driving to the basket and getting to the rim nearly as much as an SGA is. So I, I, that's where it's the discourse really becomes unfair to me. Yeah.
32:25
'Cause it's, he can be great e- even when he, he, he can be great e- and put up 18 points. We've seen that plenty of times, uh, in this playoff. So along with, with the game-winning, uh, shots that he's in.
32:35
And I, and I'm, we've been saying it.
32:36
I, I think I'm boring people, but I'm so glad you buttressed it with that, which is I do think if somehow Indiana were to pull this off, it's the greatest single run of any team in any sport we've ever seen- D-...
32:46
in a playoff. They, they already have it, and especially for Haliburton, he's got more game-tying or game-winning shots in a postseason than Kobe Bryant has had in his career, and he did it in this postseason.
32:55
That's insane. That's, it's insane to do that. It's insane. In a singular run. Are you gonna be heavily involved, I mean, to the extent that we have- Mm... props in, in the NBA draft come July 25th?
33:04
I'm kind of waiting for stuff. It seems like, I don't know, y- every year it gets more quiet in terms of what's available. Yeah. Especially when you have such a heavy favorite.
33:10
I will say really quickly in the last 30 seconds, I did add Pascal Siakam plus 150 to lead the series in rebounds. He's tied for the series lead right now with 17.
33:18
The only other guy that's threatening him right now is Hartenstein. Hartenstein's gonna average about 20 minutes a game. Siakam's gonna have a really big edge there.
33:23
And the way they're using him, I think he's gonna eat up some really big board numbers. So plus 150 to lead the series in rebounds, Siakam. I'm just looking forward to, uh, Doris Burkle going, "Siakam, ridiculous." Yeah.
33:33
I love that. Uh, JBT, top of the hour with Stormy, Stormy Bonne Tony. Money Moves. Looking forward to it, man. Thank you so much. You got it. Jonathan Vontobel, everybody.
33:42
@meJBT, by the way, if you wanna give him a follow on the old Twitter machine. We'll recap all of our best bets next.
33:48
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:10
Back on our numbers game live from Circa Resort Casino, majestic downtown Las Vegas, Nevada, where at 7:00 AM it's a cool 95 degrees outside. Oh, it's brutal.
34:20
[exhales] We get to this time of year, I don't know about you, but like my, my air conditioner just, it could be brand new, it doesn't matter out here, just you can, you can almost feel it struggling.
34:30
It's just like- Someone wanted to play tennis with me where he's like, "What time?" I'm like, "7:00 AM." He's like, "Bet, let's do it." 7:00 AM, that's what we have to do on the weekend.
34:38
Uh, we got tweets of Beating the Book. Always appreciate the feedback. There is so many, uh, Long John Silver's, Taco Bell, KFC combo tweets. I'm gonna try to bounce around those 'cause we'll be here all day.
34:48
Uh, Charles in Connecticut. I love them all though. I'll respond to all of them. Charles in Connecticut, hoop homer, he says, "Will the Jello shot challenge be shown with my VSiN plus plus plus subscription?
34:57
Sorry I'm sending so many messages. Show is just too damn good today." Oh, well, thank you, Charles, very much. Appreciate that. Jack Olquire, "Gil, thanks for a reason to actually watch my White Sox this season.
35:07
Following you with a bet on them to get to 60 wins, gulp." Yeah. Here's, let me, let me just be clear about this. That's at DraftKings.
35:14
We can't bet this unless I mule it out, and I reserve the muling for other bets, not that one. Let me just be clear.
35:20
I do not have a bet on it, but those are the three that I mentioned, White Sox, Rangers, and Reds, that I would consider. The rest of them are absolute no bets, uh, for me on those.
35:30
This is from, doo, doo, doo, this is from a real uniform czar who says, "Bring back the Brent Musburger Manscaped commercials." Superjerk, your boy, Superjerk. He say- Yo, where he bet?
35:40
He says, "Chicago White Sox have been scrappy. Made me money thus far. I would be careful with this team, uh, with that bet. Might look to move a pitcher or two at the deadline."
35:47
You always gotta be careful with the White Sox, for sure. I thought he sound very angry. That, that tweet wasn't angry. No, he wasn't angry. Yeah. He's usually angry. For- Right...
35:53
Superjerk, formerly angriest man in New Jersey, then angriest man in Kentucky. Now he's just Superjerk. Uh, Larry Brewer, "Big shot Rob, big shot Bob, Robert Horry had some pretty decent playoff c- clutch runs as well."
36:03
Mm-hmm. Yes, he did. Um, and then the rest of them are all Long John Silver's, uh- [laughs] Just got a wee Chick-fil-A's in there as well. Well, someone at Long John Silver's- Yeah...
36:12
social media department's like, "What's going on today?" [laughs] What's going on? It's a great day in our- [laughs]... company history. Let's recap some of the best bets.
36:18
Not some of them, all of the best bets that we've had on the show today. Every show, every host, every guest, every sport recapped at the end of each and every show, courtesy of GBank, the official bank of VSiN.
36:29
Um, I'm, uh, on the side I'm, uh, I'm workshopping some grass tennis. Workshopping some grass tennis. Not ready to put out plays yet, but they would've gone two and one today, so we're trending towards official plays.
36:43
Where all, where are we this week? London and Stuttgart? Oh my God, we're in so many places. Do you prefer Stuttgart's clay or Stuttgart's grass? I prefer Stuttgart clay. Thank you for asking.
36:53
[laughs] Uh, Kelly, very note, very, uh, aware at all times, noticing that in Stuttgart they have a clay tournament about a month ago, and now a grass tournament. And you said, "What?"
37:04
Uh, is, I mean, there's no other city, right, that has two events of that level with- I don't-... two different surfaces? At least the 250 in each pl- uh, probably not.
37:14
Um, to answer your question, the ATP tour is in Stuttgart and in, uh, how do you pronounce it? Hertogenbosch. Ooh, I gotta look that one up. [laughs] I know, I'm, I'm totally mispronouncing that. Uh, AT, yeah.
37:26
It, it's, it's in the Ne- Herten. It's in the Netherlands, by the way. Hertogenbosch. It's in Holland. Hmm. Where the, where the Dutch are. And what do you, what do you think about them, Gil?
37:35
Well, if there's two things in this world I can't stand- It's such a great line from, uh, Austin Powers. Uh, and then the WTA tour is in London. They're also in Hurtinganbesch. I'm not pronouncing that right.
37:48
And then they have three 125s, which I don't pay attention to. But the London, the ladies London grass tournament is the only 500 that's going on right now, so you'll recognize the names.
37:56
Anyway, Totters 16 to one, most wins in June. They're in fourth place right now as they take on the Orioles again today. And then Leon Draisaitl nine to win to win Conn Smythe.
38:06
You can get him at a better number right now with the Oilers down two games to one. Game four back at sunrise tomorrow night. How many times you living in South Florida did you ever go to sunrise?
38:18
Uh, oh man, all the time to play poker [laughs]. Okay. To, to watch hockey games, about probably five times. All right. What you got tonight in the, in the ballgame? Hal Burton over two and a half three-pointers made.
38:28
You're getting that, uh... I, I got it -102. You'll find it pretty cheap, uh, out there. I, I... look, I'm expecting more volume overall from this team from three, uh, going forward.
38:38
I think that starts tonight in game three. If Hal Burton is also, uh, limited at all with this leg, I, I, you know, maybe he has to settle a little bit more for some pull-up jumpers.
38:48
So like the over threes on him tonight. All right. Um, Kelly gets to some country clubbing here momentarily with golf. Ben Wilson came in. He's got Louisville over Oregon State.
38:57
Louisville plus 135, that's the first round, if you will. I don't, we don't really call it the first round, but it's the first game being played. That's in bracket one of the College World Series in Omaha.
39:08
So, uh, Ben's on Louisville plus 135. He's also waiting to see when the totals are posted for, uh, for other bets as well. And then, uh, was that it for us? No, we got Will with a few baseball- Will, Will Hill.
39:18
My God, this feels like it was five hours ago, Will Hill. He's got the Braves today at -138.
39:23
He's got the Phillies today at -115 and a Willie special, as Wishnev calls it, Marlins plus the half run first five for William Hilliam, or Wilson Hillson as we like to call him.
39:34
Uh, and then JBT, Pascal Siakam plus 150 to lead the series in rebounds. Pascal Siakam heading into game number three tonight at Indiana.
39:44
All that brought to you by G-Bank, once again, the official bank of Vsin, where G-Bank is, uh, now sporting the G-Bank trifecta. You heard about this? Introducing the $500 trifecta from G-Bank.
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40:23
Vs- uh, I should say this one-time promotion is limited to customers opening a new account response to this offer and will not apply to requests to convert existing accounts. Apply today. Terms and conditions apply.
40:34
Only one thing left to do on the show. You know who didn't get to talk about the US Open? My friend Kelly Bidlin, country clubbing. No? No, no country clubbing? Hey. [upbeat music] Yeah, there we go. There it is.
40:47
Ben Wilson's family. [laughs] He said, he said Matt Brown called... [laughs] Matt, Matt Brown called that Ben Wilson's family? [laughs] Yep. So great. All right, sir. All right, let's fly through the card quick here.
41:03
Let's do it. Outrights for me, I am on Ludvig Aberg 27 to one, added 30 to one yesterday, that is out there as well. Sepp Straka 50 to one and Keegan Bradley 100 to one.
41:13
That is all I'll be going into this tournament with outright bets on. I do love, uh, the top of the board. Scheffler, Bryson, Jon Rahm is who I'm looking to target live.
41:23
Will hopefully get in on one of those, but hey, if we don't, we don't. You have to be okay with that.
41:28
Um, also just kind of covering, uh, some of my outrights, Ludvig with a top five and Keegan Bradley with a top 10 is how I chose to play that. And then two, uh, bigger top 10 bets on DeChambeau and on Jon Rahm.
41:41
I do think this is gonna be another very top-heavy, uh, major that we're gonna get this year like we did at the PGA and the Masters. Top 20s, really like Xander Schauffele in the top 20 market.
41:51
Uh, game's slowly getting there. I don't know if I believe in him in as, as an outright, uh, this week. I know some others have bet that. I believe Wes is on him for, for him in outright.
42:00
I don't know if his game is fully back yet, uh, Gil, but this is a guy that's played really well in US Opens and majors here over the past several years.
42:08
Uh, and the game's back to a point where the club head speed's high. What he's doing off the tee this year, uh, is another level from where he's been at before.
42:15
If he's got to play out of this thick rough, I think he's gonna be okay. Like him in for a top 20 play. Uh, and then top 20s on Sepp Straka and Shane Lowry.
42:24
Shane Lowry's a kind of a tough one to figure out right now for me, but he, his approach numbers are spectacular, what he's done the past few weeks.
42:32
Uh, had trouble closing it out, really ugly Sunday for him, uh, this past week in Canada.
42:37
Uh, but he's one of these guys that I think if you're looking, if you're looking at this tournament, you got to choose distance off the tee or put a premium on accuracy, and that's what you're getting with Shane Lowry and Sepp Straka.
42:48
They are not long, but they are extremely accurate and will find the fairway, uh, quite often. And then first round, shout out to Byron Lindicic.
42:55
I thought he did a great job of breaking this down to how he was betting Scheffler this week, and really thought, w- went back and kind of tracked where Scheffler had finished at in first rounds in these majors, and getting just a better pl- price to play on Scheffler af- for a first round top 10 at plus money, plus 115, than comparing to what he is as a top 10 or even a top five bet for the entire tournament.
43:17
So thought that was a really sharp way to play that, uh, in the first round.
43:20
And with condensed scores, um, or, or not, you know, guys not going very low in this first round, I'm going back to some of these MGM first round markets where I'm gonna play v- uh, some top 10s, top five spots.
43:32
How, well, same question that I asked, uh, Sia earlier about the without Scheffler markets. Yeah. How rampant are the top 10 first round markets? Yeah, great q- great question. I only mentioned one book for a reason.
43:42
For us- I know... it's only at MGM. Only at MGM. I, I don't even know na- nationwide, I don't think there's a ton that offer it outside- Right... of MGM.
43:49
They'll go first round leader, top five after first round, and top 10 after first round. Um, last question on this as we head into the US Open tomorrow. What is the winning score projected?
44:02
'Cause we obviously, we can bet this too. The prop is like minus one and a half, so one and a half under par. And is the- Total... well, I guess, I guess a lot of this is rain dependent, right? It really is.
44:11
When will the rain- It really is... when will the rain show up? It's an impossible question to answer. Yeah.
44:16
It's, uh, w- we all know US Opens play tough, and if there looks like there's gonna be weather this weekend, if that comes in, this could be, I mean, it could be brutal over there.
44:25
I'm gonna do my thing where I jump in after a round or two. Yeah. Doing that. Long shots up now. Go check that out. Me and Wes Reynolds did that yesterday. Um- It's called, it's called long shots... called long shots.
44:34
We're all, we're- And remember, get a podcast of the show as well. A numbers game. A numbers game. In case you miss us, wanna watch us on delay after the fact, The Numbers Game podcast. Check it out.
44:43
Money moves with Story and JBT next at Vsin. Enjoy. V Sports Betting Network.
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