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Jun 12, 2024
A Numbers Game | June 12, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | June 12, 2024 | Hour 2
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44:33
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
0:11
VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking this in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin live from Barcarotta, The Barrage here in downtown Las Vegas at the T.
0:22
Um, still to come this hour, we, uh, we're gonna have Jason Weingart from Under a Cloud of Smoke, Stormy Bonatoni with a Zen moment. That's always exciting. And, uh, Will Hill momentarily here.
0:32
We get tweets here at Beating the Book. I don't know if you know- Stormy on with us, uh, before, uh, end of the week, too. Oh, is that right? Yeah. Oh, nice. UFL championship game. Of course.
0:41
She ca- she made some great call on the broadcast, right, where she said first touchdown, like 15 to one, and then it hit. Oh, really? Oh, yeah. It was like a big deal. Oof. Yeah. Stormy. Nicely done.
0:51
Chance Copper Pot on Twitter, we get tweets, "Friday mornings I take myself out for some, uh, handicapping and biscuits and gravy at a local dive. They always have MTV Classic on with the sound off.
1:01
I feel like I'm in a video time machine. It's fantastic." That sounds like a great morning right there. It does. Oh, man. Jason Stark, "Hey, Gil, it's not really as complicated as you make it."
1:10
Talking about the bracket in college, college hoops. I actually thought you broke it down rather well. I did, too. Yeah. He says, "Two separate brackets. If you win, you advance.
1:16
If you lose, you get dropped into a loser's bracket. If you lose again, you're out." Didn't I say that? If you- So, so you did... if you keep winning, you'll play that team that never lost.
1:22
The part that's confusing on the opening bracket is it almost gets simpler once people start to win and lose, right? 'Cause then you start to separate into the winner and loser side. You just can't lose twice.
1:32
Just can't lose twice. Stephen Vegas, "I'm sorry, but despite Nathan Stock's shooting up 25 cents this morning, there are a bunch of self-sabotagers. It's like David Stern private banning MJ in '94 for gambling."
1:44
Oh, wow. "Screw the wieners." They, they really are self [laughs] sabot- Like, what are they doing? "Screw the wieners. It's time for a Japanese holiday sushi eating contest. Do you know a place?"
1:52
[laughs] Uh, before we... Well, actually, let's bring Will Hill in here. Ladies and gentlemen, he is the host of the Shoulda Bet More podcast.
1:59
Um, and of course, he's part of the Bear Bets pod over at Fox Sports with Chris Fallica. It's our own Will Hill, @notthewillhill, courtesy of the Progressive guest line.
2:07
And before we get all his thoughts on, uh, all these different sports and his bets, Kelly and I were just having this conversation off air, um, about the new kickoff rules in the NFL.
2:17
And I'll, I'll speak for you, Kelly, you tell me if I'm wrong here. I feel like it's, like one big... It's obviously everybody's favorite sport. It's the sport that we're most immersed in, the NFL.
2:29
But I feel like I still don't quite get it, and that it's going to require me to watch it, right, to lay eyes on it before I can draw any conclusions.
2:40
Because Kelly was sending me some g- these things you were sending me the other day. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm trying to pull it up right now.
2:46
Th- W- we've seen articles with, like, they're gonna have to, uh, they're gonna have to sign 1,600 more NFL players. We're like, "What are we talking about, 1,600? That's the whole population of the league.
2:55
You can't d- what are you..." They're gonna have to have kickers that are specifically designed to kick these, or, or current kickers make t- make 25% of the tackles.
3:04
Th- those- Yeah, that was from the, that was the XFL stats, right? 'Cause they're taking the same setup from the XFL, and kickers were involved in tackles 25% more of the pl- more of the time than the NFL.
3:15
Those guys didn't sign up for this. No, they didn't. Well, I mean, do you feel as, as sort of behind the eight ball on this as we do? A little bit.
3:22
I've heard Steve Fezzik talk about this, and he seems to think, you know, you can maybe add a point or so to the totals, just because instead of starting, um... What was the average starting position? I don't know.
3:34
You can bump it up by maybe four or five yards and he, you know, he's compared it to these other leagues where they use this rule where you don't get a lot of, like, returns for touchdowns, but you get a lot of, like, solid returns.
3:43
He thinks maybe some of these teams will just kick it in the end zone, "Hey, start at the 30. I don't wanna have to think about it. Deal with it." So it'll be interesting. I, I'm with you.
3:49
I need to see it before I can actually- Yeah... picture it in my head. I guess it's sort of similar to a, a rugby scrum where the, the ball has to be wait to be caught before anybody can do anything.
3:58
So, I don't know, I guess the ideal strategy is to just kind of get it close to, like, the one and then just, uh, you know, try, try to kick these ugly line drive, may- maybe not even use a kicker to do it, where you just use these quirky, like, knuckleball kicks and try to, try to get a bad return that way.
4:13
But it'll be interesting. And w- I, I don't know, teams during the pre-season, are they gonna tip their hand in terms of how they're gonna play during- Right, right...
4:19
the regular season, or are they gonna not- That's a great point... do anything? Just in the re- in the pre-season will just kick it through the end zone. We're not gonna let you know our playbook. I, I don't know.
4:26
That's a- I think it's also team by team, right? 'Cause you're, you're- Well, sure...
4:29
like, it, like, I, I know Justin Tucker's w- been talking about it, and like, I, you know, I think him, the idea of him making tackles, like, hey, if I'm the Ravens, I'm s- Justin Tucker kick it out the back of the end zone every time.
4:40
And run it aside. We will give it to them at the 30. That's right. You know, that's exactly right. So it will be team by team. That's a great point about the pre-season, Will. Yeah. Uh, as with all these things.
4:49
But that, this specifically. And I don't wanna... Like, this is o- I guess what I'm saying is this is one of those things that I don't wanna even act like I have some insight on.
4:58
I know others do, but I don't even act like I do. You, you gotta see this first. And it i- and it will be so nuanced, I think. Yeah, and I'm, I'm glad the return is somewhat part of the game because- Yeah...
5:09
there's dead parts to the game where, uh, at least the extra point is something now, but commercial, kickoff, touchback, another commercial, where it's just, it's a lot of dead time.
5:16
And, uh, well, just mentioning the pre-season, it's June, what, 12th? So- Yeah, baby Not that long. I mean, we're s- s- six weeks from the Hall of Fame Game. I think it's August 1st this year.
5:25
So I don't know, with your vacation schedule, it's only like four shows from now- [laughs]... we, we'll be at, we'll have the Hall of Fame Game. [laughs] I was waiting for it.
5:32
I was like, "And here it comes, three, two, one." [laughs] I knew there was, I knew there was a punchline. All right, smarty pants, uh, are you doing anything NBA finals, or have you punted on this?
5:43
Uh, I mean, I bet Celtics w- won these injuries were piling up, like minus 150, not that I got some great number. Then I took Mavs in seven, trying to middle it. Um, I kind of gave up on the Mavs in seven part.
5:52
Maybe I'm still alive. I don't know. I was pretty confident. I was doing these hits Monday and Tuesday before the Porzingis news.
5:56
I was pretty confident Boston was gonna get one, if not both of these games in Dallas, just because I thought it, it just looks like such a bad match up for Dallas, where everybody on Boston- Can shoot 40% from three and defend, but that was with Porziņģis, who can stretch the floor, who can protect the rim.
6:10
If, if we don't get Porziņģis, and I'd say 40- I'd say 60-40 he doesn't play, although, I don't know. I mean, who, who knows with this stuff? Um, maybe that opens the door a little bit for, for, um, Dallas to get...
6:23
I think they need both of them. If they get one, they're probably dead going back to Boston for game five. So I didn't play anything for tonight.
6:28
If I did, it would be probably still a Dallas team total under just because there's just not a lot of shooting.
6:33
Boston, not only is the, the percentage bad for Dallas, you could say, "Hey, at, at home they'll shoot better," there's some truth to that. They're not getting the attempts. I think it's only 54 attempts in two games.
6:40
The attempts are the key because Boston's gotten up 81 attempts. It's almost like throwing the ball deep in football.
6:45
You need to get your shots, and if you're, if you're not allowing the attempts, it's hard to, to get enough makes. It's just about the volume. And, uh, I thought, did you guys see this?
6:52
Jrue Holiday, who I think is still live for MVP, I talked about him before the series at 50 to 1. I think, I know one book had 100 to 1, and then after game one he went to 120 to 1.
6:59
I still think he's live at plus 750, uh, for a lot of different reasons, but he had a good, uh, he had a good line. I don't know if it was after game one or game two, he said, somebody asked him about the defense.
7:08
He goes, "Even our white guys can defend. That's how good our defense is." It was so totally straight la- straight faced, too. It was funny. [laughs] But, um, I, I like your bet about Holiday.
7:17
Yeah, plus 750, I still think there's value there, where he, uh, look, he's a good guy. He came from the Bucks and won a championship.
7:23
The Celtics, there's this narrative that hey, they can't get over the hump, and now Holiday's the missing piece. We don't love Tatum. It usually goes to the star, but Tatum's not gonna win it.
7:30
Brown just got his award in the conference finals. I think Holiday at plus 750 is still too long. Yeah. So do I. Started the show with it. Just can't bet it here. Come on, are we booking or not?
7:40
We, we got a tweet that we could bet it at, at BetFred here in town, but I don't even know where I'd go to sign up for it. Oh, at, at, uh, Virgin. Oh, is that where? They got BetFred?
7:48
Bro, are we gonna go to Virgin and make a bet at BetFred? [laughs] Is that what's gonna happen after the show today? We did get a tweet about it. Wow. The ghosts of the hard run. You don't have one book?
7:56
All those places in Vegas, you don't have one place to t- that'll take finals MVP? Bro, th- this is the thing. It's like, here, I'm giving you my money. It's likely to lose. You don't want it? Oh, okay. I don't get it.
8:07
I actually texted Chrissy this morning, right? Yeah. Chrissy Andrews. I, I text him and I go, "Is there some rule where this can't be up?" He goes, "No, there isn't."
8:14
And I think he's right, 'cause it, it was posted before the series, right? Yeah. I mean, I betted- Yeah... I, I bet Luka before the series. Yeah. I, I don't get it. Um, all right, guys. That's actually amazing.
8:22
Not one... I, I mean, all, all the books, Circa, South, I mean, there's, uh, you- anyone that's been to Vegas, there's a million casinos. Not one that would take it is, is actually, like, just mind-blowing to me.
8:31
Un- unless they put it up while we've been on the show. By the way, Mavericks up to three now in some spots. Up to three, tonight's game. All right, baseball, what do you got today, sir?
8:41
Figuring out how to play the Astros. I wanna fade Webb. I know he, he's got a 2.90 ERA, but all of the underlying stats are really bad. I didn't realize how hard he's getting hit.
8:49
I mean, his expected batting average is around 300. His exit velocity, he's in, like, the, the first percentile. Uh, and that 2.90 ERA is not gonna last based on how hard he's getting hit.
8:59
So here's the problem with, uh, w- with trying to fi- trying to fade a, a specific pitcher. There's so many markets now, it's, it's almost the opposite problem with these east coast books. I don't know.
9:08
Do I wanna play under outs for Webb at 19 and a half? I think I do. Do I wanna just play the Astros on the money line? Do I wanna play overruns for, for Webb allowed? There's so many ways to get at it.
9:16
Todd Wishnev is famous for, uh, for saying how he has the right theory of a bet, but he figures out a way to lose. [laughs] Then he plays a team total instead or whatever.
9:24
And- That's- I know coming up in the next segment, you're gonna read Todd, Todd Wishnev's, uh, text last night for the WNBA recap from last night. [laughs] So that'll be interesting. 100%, yes.
9:32
Um, I'm, I'm looking to fade Webb. Under 19 and a half outs, I'll take Astros on the money line. Uh, it's so funny you say that.
9:37
Just like with the Guardians, Kelly, where I bet them every day in, in March, April, and May, I'm betting the Astros every day here as well in my bet on June. Okay. Yeah.
9:45
It's, they're six and four so far, so it's working out. You're up a little bit of money. Little bit. Little bit. Um, okay, so- By the way, I was, I was dozing off when Wishnev was texting some of that.
9:53
What, there was a bunch of points at the double, end of a WNBA game. No, it was like he had 158 and a half. They scored 15 with, like, a minute left in garbage time. He had, he had an- It's what it was...
10:01
yeah, he had an under in the WNBA last night. Don't ask me the game. But it was at, exactly, it was 158. Hardcore. The total was 170. There was only, like, a minute and change left, and it soared over.
10:13
And Wishnev just blasted us with texts. Like, "I've, I've never seen anything like this before. Did you see what happened?" None of us saw it, right? So we're just like, "Oh, man, I'm sorry."
10:22
I, I saw this tweet from Kenny White earlier, right? Yeah. Maybe it's the same one he's talking about, was LA and Seattle, he had under 82 for the second half. Seattle up 14 with less than 20 seconds left.
10:33
Both teams score five points each to hit 84 in the second half. Yeah. No dribble out. Seattle hits a 35-foot- That was the one... uh, buzzer beater. That, that was the one.
10:43
Uh, anything else, Will, before you go that you're betting on these days? You have 30 seconds. Uh, I added Klingon to the draft. I've heard enough of it. I had Ben Wilson on the podcast. He likes it.
10:51
He's heard enough buzz. He knows these G League players, right? I think he can still get nine to one. I see a nine to one out there. There's just enough uncertainty with how bad the draft is.
10:59
And plus, Atlanta's a weird team, where they're not rebuilding, they're not contending. They got these two guards in Young and Murray. Who knows? They might trade one of them. But I think Klingon is live here.
11:07
That's gonna be interesting in a couple weeks. That, that draft is sneaking up on us with what these books wanna, wanna book with the draft, because there's so much uncertainty. Nobody knows these players.
11:16
The players aren't any good. There's so much variance with it. That'll be, uh, that'll be something to keep an eye on.
11:20
But that's, uh, it's coming up pretty soon here, so Klingon to be the first taken is something I've added. Wow. Zach, JVT, and now Will on Klingon to go number one. I'm betting it, too. Are you? Yeah. Okay.
11:31
Yeah, Zach and JVT bet it a while ago. It's been all- No Zachary Risache to go number one? Eh. No. No Alexander Sar? [laughs] I don't know who these people are. All right. Will, thank you. @NotTheWillHill again.
11:44
Shoulda bet more. Thank you, sir. See you, guys. US O- Thanks, guys... US Open with Kelly next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. It's the numbers game.
12:02
I'm Gil Alexander. Coming up, we're gonna talk US Open, but first, here's Stormy Bonatony with your moment of zen This is your betting moment of Zyn, brought to you by Zyn nicotine pouches.
12:16
Find your moment of Zyn at zyn.com. Stormy Bond Tony here with VSiN, V Sports Betting Network, diving into the odds for the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year.
12:24
To the surprise of no one, number one overall pick Caleb Williams is the shortest shot to claim the hardware at plus 135.
12:30
The Bears QB is set to be a day-one starter and has plenty of skill position talent to work with: DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, fellow top 10 pick Rome Odunze, to name a few.
12:38
And the Bears, on paper, have one of the weaker strength of schedules. From one former Heisman Trophy winner to another, Commanders QB Jayden Daniels is next on the odds board at plus 650.
12:47
Daniels' ability as a runner should help his case, especially with new OC Kliff Kingsbury in tow. Marvin Harrison Jr.
12:54
is set at seven to one, followed by JJ McCarthy, 12 to one, Malik Nabers, 18 to one, and Drake Maye, 22 to one. This has been your daily betting moment of Zyn. Learn more about Zyn smoke-free nicotine pouches at zyn.com.
13:04
Warning, this product contains nicotine. Nicotine is an addictive chemical. Zyn is intended for adult nicotine users over 21 years of age. Thank you, Stormy.
13:11
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13:20
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13:29
Visit omahasteaks.com and use promo code VSIN at checkout. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Billings. Do you think you'll ever be able to hear the word Omaha again and not think about Peyton Manning yelling it?
13:40
That's a great... I, you know, I thought you were gonna go with Omaha Steaks, but I was about to say, no, Peyton Manning screaming, "Omaha." That's all I can th- that's really all I can think of whenever I hear the word.
13:47
'Cause he did it with that Peyton Manning voice. Omaha. Mm-hmm. Just like that. Just like Peyton. We're basically the same guy. It's like Peyton was sitting right here next to me.
13:54
[laughs] We get tweets of beating the book. This is from Eric @efeezy450.
13:58
All right, efeezy, "Hotdog producers are missing out on a huge opportunity to match up Kobayashi versus Chestnut to destroy Nathan's stronghold on hot dog contests. I'm looking at you, Hebrew National.
14:09
Your dogs are already superior." [laughs] That's great. Buddhist man, we love Buddhists.
14:15
Uh, watching today on a 30-minute delay, I was rushing to my Twitter machine, uh, copyright Anthony Irwin Kornheiser, to make the exact Secretariat versus Joey Chestnut comparison that you did, Gil.
14:25
I was even going to work in a Joey Chestnut is chewing like a tremendous machine, which is how, uh, Secretariat was described down the stretch at the 1973 Belmont Stakes.
14:37
Uh, and then the numbers guys, uh, "Morning, gang. College World Series is four from the ACC and four from the SEC? Dang. I long for the days of Cal State Fullerton and Long Beach State.
14:46
Then again, one of them may very well be in the ACC now." [laughs] That A is for Atlantic Ocean, right? [laughs] That's very good as well. Yeah.
14:53
And he's feeling good, he says, about, uh, Scottie at plus 325 for the US Open. That's what he's got, uh, Scottie Scheffler to win the US Open.
15:02
Uh, before we get to your US Open thoughts, uh, do have picks at vsin.com/picks. Every host, every guest, no matter the sport, uh, for subscribers, our picks are up at vsin.com/picks.
15:12
I had do two tennis, two grass court, we're on grass now, two grass court tennis picks overnight, one of which was played. We lost. I had Yannick Hanfmann, Yannick Hanfmann, uh, I had him at plus...
15:26
Well, let me get the exact number right here, at plus 178. He loses to Big T, Frances Tiafoe, 7-5, 7-6. Lost 7-5 in the breaker. Hanfmann in ti- in, uh, break points today, oh for 11. Is that good?
15:44
It's like, it's a, it's, it's the quintessential nice handicap, sorry it didn't work out, buddy. Oh, that sucks, man. [laughs] That sucks. Oh for 11.
15:54
I mean, there's, there are tennis matches you bet where someone goes double digits opportunities, but they hit a few of them. Oh for 11. Uh, the only one that's left is in Nottingham, Nottingham in England.
16:05
Uh, Heather Watson, the Brit, I have her at plus 185.
16:09
She's about plus 178 right now against, uh, Karolina Pliskova, who used to be awesome on grass, um, hasn't played nearly as much through the last few years 'cause of injuries. Um, but I got Watson at plus 185.
16:22
That's a little later on. US Open, Pinehurst, North Carolina, golf's third major of the year. Uh, Scottie Scheffler is your short shot. You, Kelly, have done not one, not two, but 75 episodes of Long Shots this week.
16:35
[laughs] We look forward to the broadcast here in about 40 minutes. Yeah, that's right. Much more detail there, but we could definitely run through everything- Yeah, what do you got?... uh, everything here.
16:44
This is, um, you know, quick course notes, I think if you are looking to handicap, uh, at home y- yourself, uh, this is a, Pinehurst number two is a very different and interesting setup.
16:55
You can, uh, if you watch any of the flyover video or anything, you'll basically see a very nice golf course, Gil, that looks like a great US Open setup, except instead of four-inch rough, you just have that all torn out and ripped out and some of these waste areas with wire grass and stuff- Oh, man...
17:11
that these guys gotta play out of. So what is that gonna mean? Well, you wanna stay out of that, but you're gonna see, Sia talked about it a little bit, you're gonna see some really random lies.
17:21
Like some- sometime guys are gonna have clean shots out of there, sometimes they're gonna be an absolute disaster, so it- I can see some disaster on this overhead... This is why- Yeah... I, I don't disagree.
17:30
I, I made some bets in the winter without Scottie Scheffler market, but I don't disagree with Sia's thought of there could be some, you know, just variant, more variance at a course like this that you might actually be more willing to go up against Scheffler just 'cause some crazy stuff might happen.
17:46
You wrote- And as you, and as you pointed out yesterday, it wasn't like he was infallible this past weekend. He wobbled a lot. Correct. Yeah, he did. He did.
17:52
Um, and this is, this is where I think you and I were having this conversation off air, but I was ta- asking Sia and Josh about Cameron Smith, 'cause I think he's, he's one of the most often brought up guys I've heard from other golf bettors this week, and with a lot of people on him or against him.
18:06
And I think reasons make, the, both reasons for that both make sense. He's an around the greens wizard. Everybody remembers that from the Open last year where he won.
18:16
This is going to be a tournament where around the green play is very, very important. So that part makes sense.
18:21
Here's the part that doesn't make sense, and I know Matt Brown's fading him, and I know this is part of the reason why. The guys gained strokes off the tee in one event in Li- on LIV this year.
18:31
LIV is not as good as the PGA Tour. If you're not beating the field- Geez... gaining off the tee, it means you are not driving the ball very well.
18:38
And if you're gonna be playing out of the wire grass waste areas all tournament long, I don't have much faith in it. I'm staying away.
18:46
Sounds like C is staying away for the most part, too, because I could see either, either reality playing out, but not... I, I'm, I'm not gonna g- I'm not interested in that this week.
18:55
Um, from 2014, seven holes at a bogey or worse percentage at 30% or more. That is, uh, that is, uh, a lot. Three putt rate, uh, was over 5% in 2014 when they play- la- last played here. So you're gonna see a lot of that.
19:11
Greens are gonna be very tough. They are extremely firm. I know we have a couple videos of this as well.
19:16
Um, you're gonna see balls hit here that you think are gonna be great shots, and they are gonna roll right off the green, and then these guys gotta play from these shaved down greens.
19:25
Uh, there were a couple videos floating around of, yeah, just these guys dropping balls and watch this thing just roll, roll, roll, roll. Ooh, tabletop. Exactly. Look at that. So this is gonna be tough on approach, Gil.
19:35
This is gonna be tough putting that these guys gotta deal with this week. And you- But I love this. This is what the US Open is supposed to be. Yeah, yeah.
19:43
I mean, I mean, it's, it's, it's gonna be great US Open conditions. You just don't have the really thick rough that we all get used to. Mm-hmm. So this is...
19:50
You're gonna see a lot of these balls just run off the green and run down into these areas. This is, this is, this is a video of a chip onto the green, and you're gonna see this roll right back off.
19:59
Odds of someone saying this course is unfair at some point during the week. Oh, minus 10,000. Yeah. So yeah, you're gonna see a lot of that. That's important, uh, important stuff to look at this week.
20:10
Um, so that, I think it makes a lot of sense for what C was talking about. This is called Morikawa using like a five wood around the green. You know, you're gonna have to make the decision. Do you want to chip?
20:18
Do you want to try to just putt it from off the green? Do you want to use a different club like he is? So all that stuff to keep in mind. As far as my bets for the week, a couple outrights I mentioned earlier.
20:28
Same thing I did, I bet Morikawa Sunday morning, um, in the outright market. That was all that was posted at that point. Hideki, I had bet, I believe on Sunday if not Saturday, uh, 50 to 1 as well.
20:41
Um, guys I added, winner without Scheffler. I did add Keegan there this week. Um, look, Keegan has been great off the tee. If you were on him last week, sorry, you got the full Keegan Bradley experience.
20:51
One shot off the lead on Friday and then completely craters over the weekend. Um, but I will be back on him go- going just for the high, high-end, uh, result here with the, uh, winner without Scheffler market.
21:01
And then I added Brooks, Gil. When we're talking- Oh, boy... when we're talking US Open, tough conditions, mental fortitude, if you will, these guys gonna have- Yeah.
21:11
There's always one guy you gotta think of, and it's Brooks Koepka. So I didn't go crazy with it. But a winner without Scheffler market, I did add him at 18 to 1. I thought that was a good number I'm willing to go with.
21:20
Uh, love Scheffler this week. Look, he's number one rated guy, five wins last time he's, last 18 times he's teed it up. Hard to ignore that. I'm, I'm with you. Top five, let's go.
21:31
Um, and then the, my, my three biggest bets this week would be Scheffler top five and then Schauffele, Morikawa top 10. They were my two biggest bets last week. I'm going right back to them.
21:39
Schauffele and Morikawa I think set up perfectly for this. Morikawa is on an absolute heater right now. Um, so him in the top 20 market as well. Tommy Fleetwood, uh, really haven't bet him at all this year.
21:49
This, the game's starting to come around, though.
21:52
Uh, another, he's not, not the furthest, not the longest off the tee, not the longest with his irons, Gil, which concerns me a little bit 'cause that is definitely what you need to be looking for this week in a golfer.
22:02
This is still a long track. No matter how much you hear about accuracy off the tee being more important, these guys still gotta bomb it. Um, but like him enough in top 20 market at plus money, plus 138.
22:13
Uh, and then you could go, if you want to aim high on these guys, I decided to play top 40 Sep Straka and Aaron Rai. Both of them rated out really high for me this week, though.
22:21
If you wanted to take a longer shot, play them in the top 20 market, I wouldn't hate it. Aaron Rai over Steven Yeager in a tournament matchup. Wipe away all my John Rom matchups. Those got destroyed.
22:30
And Hideki Matsuyama is the top Japanese player. I'm gonna ask you a question. You can think about it over the break. Okay. Give an answer at the other end.
22:36
Is there a current tour player who is a comp to like an Andy North, who only won three tournaments in his whole career, but two were US Opens? That's the question. You can answer that on the other side.
22:47
Jason Weingarten joins us as well. Numbers game. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Start betting smarter with a VSiN Pro subscription.
22:57
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23:08
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23:15
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23:20
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23:28
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23:44
It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bilin. Uh, they're always showing something behind Kelly here with multiple screens of the day. Uh, they're showing Super Bowl 16, Kelly, which is the Niners' first Super Bowl championship.
23:56
By the way, it's 14 to nothing, I think, at this point. I don't know, 'cause they don't show the score back then. Yeah. Oh, God. Uh, so this is January of 1982.
24:05
Um, if it is 14 to nothing, I would take the Bengals, uh, in game plus the points, 'cause they'll make it closer. That's my guess. I'm gonna say around 26, 21 as a final.
24:15
Um, the other thing I was watching here is that there's, you, you, you lose track of You know, so that's, what is that? That's over 40 years. That's 43 years ago.
24:27
There is a guy in the stands that they just showed who is smoking a pipe. You know how, like, they, in the '70s it was common, I guess- Yeah...
24:36
this is obviously the early '80s, to, that, that men openly smoked pipes, right? They would light up the end of their thing. So he's in the stands of this football game- [laughs]...
24:45
and it's just like, it's like, yeah, normal guy who smokes. Like, things you don't see in 2024. Oh, man. Um- How'd that pipe lighting thing go again? How do they do it? Oh, fucking shit again.
24:54
[laughs] Did I do it improperly? I don't know, it was fine. [laughs] Okay. The other one I can't get off my mind now- I'm like cross-handed... is you talking about switching tennis over to grass season. Uh, but- Yeah...
25:03
I think you should do a special podcast through grass season where it's just Gil on Grass. Gil on Grass. Gil on Grass. Gil on Grass. Trick a lot of people into listening to that. All right.
25:11
I got, I got two before we bring in Jason here. Jason Weingarten standing by. The, the, the question I asked you before the break was, is there an equivalent golfer today to the likes of an Andy North?
25:22
And, and Kelly asked me, "Well, you mean a guy who just wins majors?" I don't know. Specifically a guy who wins the US Open, but doesn't win anything else.
25:28
So in other words, if a golf tournament, if the winner's like, you know, 20 under, he ain't winning. But Andy North won three tournaments in his whole career.
25:33
Andy North, who people, most people know from ESPN as a golf analyst, but he won two US Opens because that kind of course- Mm... he can mentally focus and compete and emerge on top. Is there anyone like that today?
25:46
I mean, I, I, I, I think the mo- the closest comp to that would be a Brooks Koepka still. I mean, 20, he had 20 PGA Tour wins. Five of them were PGA championships or US Opens. Okay. Well, yeah.
25:58
I also, I also think he's the only guy for me, like, okay, it's a major week, who, are your power ratings being affected at all because it's a major? Like, he's, I think he's the only guy with the- I-...
26:09
the magic beans that you boost because- I think you're right. Is it the same magic beans that Mike Tomlin has? Same magic beans, yeah. Same magic beans. I think that's as good an answer as any.
26:16
Here's the other thing I want to say, 'cause I asked you this when LIV started. Has your golf betting not been as good since? Mm. And remember, at the time I said, "Do you think this will affect your handicapping?"
26:29
And the answer was no. Yeah, it hasn't been as good. I, it hasn't been as good, but it's also one of those that, this, the more frustrating part is you can't figure out- Why... why. Is it really that, that's a factor?
26:42
Is it other things that are factors? You know, whatever. Yeah, because- Like, last year was okay... the shortening of the- This year's been awful for me...
26:51
the shortening of the field, your knee-jerk reaction is, "Oh, it should go better," but maybe the price, the price issue of that is causing that also.
26:59
Jason Weingarten joins us from under a cloud of smoke somewhere in Southern California. You can follow him on Twitter at spreadapedia. Comes to us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Jason? Pretty good.
27:09
How's it going? Good. Welcome back. Thank you, man. I feel like we haven't texted in, uh, in like a month, man. What's happening? You okay? Yeah, no, I'm right here. Okay. Just curious. You know? I miss you.
27:19
That's what I'm saying, Jason. I'm just saying I miss you, man. Oh, thank you. Yeah. [laughs] Uh, r- are you betting Rose Zhang every time? Let's start there. Uh, she wasn't, she wasn't in the field this, this last week.
27:33
I don't think she was in the field, uh, this week, so it helps me. You know, that decision gets paid for itself.
27:40
Um, I have been betting some golf this, uh, this last week, and I don't know if either of you guys caught the end of the, the Scandinavian, uh, mixed event. Oh, man. That was a fun one.
27:50
Talk about bad beats, right, Jason? Des- describe it to us, Jason. Well, I had, I had the guy in first place.
27:56
I had the guy in second place, and the guy in first place had an eight-shot lead going into Sunday morning, and, and, like, I just kind of felt it, you know?
28:06
Like, you just, you n- sometimes you know you have a bet, and even it's just looking so good. You're like, you're like, "How am I gonna lose this?" Mm-hmm.
28:15
And, and I actually got up to watch it, 'cause it was like 4:00, 4:30 in the morning on Sunday. Sure. I was like, "You know, I'm gonna get up and watch this." Totally normal behavior. Um- [laughs]...
28:25
and he just, just started, you know, eight shots becomes seven shots, becomes five, four, three. But the whole time you're like, "Well, it's still a four-shot lead. Still a three-shot lead."
28:36
[laughs] Still all, all he has to do is not double bogey 18 to go to a playoff. Like, surely he's not gonna double bogey 18, and then he shoots a 77 and, you know. Man, is that a, that a way to lose on a Sunday morning.
28:51
And the, and the guy in second who you had also kind of, uh... Didn't, didn't get there. Linn Grant won. She, she won the event two years in a row, which it's actually more insult to injury. She was like 100 to 1 live.
29:02
I coulda just been hitting 100 to 1 live all morning and had a easy winner. Oh, it was- Instead I, I won a little tiny bit, 'cause I did hedge, but I did not win big.
29:12
Oh, it was a, a women's tournament in s- in somewhere in Scandinavia. No, it was, it was a mixed event. No, no, no, this- It was a mix of- Yes... oh, a mixed event. All right, man.
29:18
This was a cool DP World Tour thing where they'll mix up, uh, how they f- do the field sometimes. Oh. And this is the o- I, I think this is the only tournament they do it, but they do.
29:26
It's men and women, and it is, i- the w- the women play for, from f- uh, tees further up. But other than that, everything's the same, right? Prize money- Yeah... all of that. So yes, eight-stroke lead.
29:37
[laughs] Bl- Sebastian Soderberg blows, and l- uh, Linn Grant, right? Was that what, was that who it was, Jason? Yeah, she- Linn Grant. Yeah, she ends up winning. I was waking up early in the morning.
29:47
You, you said it, Kelly. Sebastian Soderberg blows. [laughs] I was too busy watching, waking up early and watching, uh, French Open matches at that hour. Yeah.
29:57
That was that kind of weekend where it's like 5:00 in the morning and you're like, "Okay, what am I watching?" Um, well, sorry about that, Jason. That, uh, that stinks. That is brutal. Yeah.
30:06
Uh, d- are you betting any US Open golf this week? Have you made any bets? I've, I have not thrown, thrown any dart yet for the, the big tournament this week. I do enjoy when Scottie Scheffler's in the field.
30:18
You get really interesting live numbers, 'cause a lot of times the live engines just assume, like, well, he's four shot back, he's just gonna turn it on and win automatically, which, which does happen.
30:29
But when it doesn't, it creates, you know, in, in-running opportunities that I'm, I'm usually happy to wait when it comes to golf. So th- that's interesting.
30:39
So what you're saying is with Scheffler that there seems to be some manual adjustment. Is that what you're saying?
30:46
Not so much manual, but for example, like, when Davis Riley won going into the fourth round of that event a couple weeks ago, uh, Scheffler was the favorite even though Riley had, like, a four-shot lead going into the final round.
30:58
And then Riley bogeyed early, and Scheffler became even of a, a shorter favorite, and Riley was, like, two to one even though he still had a three-shot lead- Right... with, like, 17 holes to play over Scheffler.
31:10
The models just assume, you know, Scheffler's gonna turn it on 'cause he's the best golfer in the world right now, which just isn't how golf works, especially on non-majors.
31:20
You don't just win every time 'cause you're the best and, you know, like, it doesn't work like that. But, so it's interesting. It's, it's, it's good opportunity to pay attention to live betting this week.
31:29
It's interesting. Yeah. I- it typically not, it doesn't work like that. He's obviously bucked that more often than not, right?
31:34
Like, he's, he's definitely been an outlier to that, but you're right, generally speaking, golf does not work that way. Uh, you betting any baseball today? Baseball. So, uh, I have one bet today. I bet the Braves.
31:47
I got plus 112. Uh, you know, the Orioles gotta lose sometime. They're, they're playing pretty well right now. They just swept the, uh, the Rays in a four-game series.
31:57
It's, uh, it's a good baseball between them and, um, them and the Yankees right now. Yeah. Braves making the playoffs, Jason? We sure about this? I'm not sure about it.
32:06
I think there's something, like, nine and 16 since, since mid-May. I mean, they're, uh, they have holes. You know, you lost Strider, you lost Acuna. Mm-hmm. They definitely have, uh, have some holes still. Yeah.
32:20
I, yeah, we, we d- we have this mythical contest here at VSiN, and we took Braves to miss the playoffs as our long shot play. Uh, that's graded at the end of the season. It's a very simple little contest.
32:31
I just think that's worth, worth a shot because even though they have, coming into today, I believe they have a three and a half game lead as the n- they're the number one wildcard. Three obviously get there.
32:43
I think they're a three and a half game lead over the number two wildcard.
32:46
But generally, with the exception of two or three teams at the bottom, the entire National League is knocking at the door right behind them, right?
32:53
There's tons of teams that are sneaking up on them, and if any of these teams, like the Padres, or the Giants, or the D-backs, or the Cubs, or all, you know, name them, they all refuse to, like, live above 500.
33:05
But if any of them decide to, uh, three is all we need to actually have a good sustained run, the Braves could be in trouble, man. They really could be, so. Yeah, it might just not be their year this year.
33:15
Might not be their year, and if you lose Strider and Acuna, you know, there's no shame in that, and that's how this year has started. Jason, thank you. Appreciate it as always, man. Thank you.
33:25
I'll talk to you guys later. Have a good day. You too. Jason Weingarten, courtesy of the Progressive guest line again at Spreadapedia. Cricket update. USA 80/4 verse India. You know what that means? No. Eh.
33:39
Coming back, our final NBA thoughts next on The Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:53
We are this close to crowning an NBA champ, and with the action heating up on the court, it's even hotter at DraftKings Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner of the NBA.
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34:12
Skill Alexander, Kelly Billin, we get tweets at beatingthebook. Best listeners in the game. Best, no doubt about it. Brian Schaefer, "Mariners Gil, just like I told ya.
34:22
If they finish the sweep today, they will be right where I need them." He's talking about, uh, MLB most wins in June. You know, it's June 12th. All of us are still excited if we're in this.
34:31
By the way, Mariners right now seven and three, so the top of the standings in June, Kelly, 'cause I know you're, uh, so curious about this. What you got? Yankees eight and two. Mm-hmm. Orioles eight and three. Okay.
34:40
Reds seven and three. Mariners seven and three. D-backs seven and three.
34:46
Followed by, uh, the Phillies at six and two, and then the Dodgers and Pirates at six and three, and the Astros at six and four, and the Blue Jays at six and five. Okay. Let's go Astros.
34:54
But as always, I will be rooting on Mound Castle and Westberg. [laughs] Jeff Holdorf. Uh, Jeff Holdorf says, uh, "Not, uh, to the Andy North extent, but I would call Lucas Glover a US Open style player.
35:06
By the way, bring back Jardian's lady number one. The new guy's a poor substitute. Love the show." Thank you, Jeff. Um, I am totally with you. I mentioned this earlier this week. Hate the new Jardian's guy. Yeah.
35:18
Don't know what happened- Don't be seeing that... with the first Jardian's girl. We, if, can you as producer number nine, can you book the first Jardian's girl?
35:25
Because I would like her to come to The Shield, and I, I, I anticipate that if we interviewed her, she might break down sobbing. Like, this could be an un- this could have ruined her life.
35:36
She's telling all her friends she's the Jardian's girl, and then the next thing you know, the rug was pulled from out under. Yeah. She- There's a whole article about this. Is there? Are you serious?
35:44
Oh, you gotta forward me that article. [laughs] I'm so excited. [laughs] It, it, it's, it's titled, uh, "The Internet Hate for the Jardian's Commercial Lady Likely Caused a Recasting." Oh, she was the best. W- wow. Wow.
35:59
Wow. Are you serious? And the, and her replacement was supposed to be better? Yes. Oh, this is, this is scandal. This is like Scandoval level scandal.
36:09
Corbin, "Not sure if you guys have talked about the horrific, not even close to casting of the new Clippers series." Oh, here you go. "The big f- the big three for the Clips looks like guys pulled off the street.
36:20
Shows the difference in production for HBO/Hulu compared to the Showtime Lakers show." Have you seen this Clippers series?
36:26
Okay, so I haven't because I'm, I'm very excited about it, but I don't know if, like, if you're like this with shows. Like, I, there's only, like, two episodes or something up. It just started like a week or two ago.
36:35
Like, I need a few more to build up, 'cause I know as soon as I w- sit down to watch, like, I'm gonna wanna watch more than just one episode. So I'm waiting.
36:42
Those, the early returns have been, the overwhelming has been the casting is ridiculous. You gotta cast these well. Yeah. So- And it's, uh, like, you have Laurence Fishburne's playing d- uh, Doc Rivers.
36:53
You have that, and then Ed O'Neill- [laughs]... is Donald Sterling, I believe. [laughs] Oh, stop it. Yes. Are you serious?
36:59
I mean, the whole, I, I believe the whole concept for the show is around the Donald Sterling era of the Clippers. Oh, that makes sense. Yes. But Ed O'Neill got cast in that? Yes. Al Bundy and the- Al Bundy...
37:10
and the guy on F- Modern Family. Yep. All right. Tripp Tepper, "My Andy North comp would be Webb Simpson." Well, that's interesting. That's a, that's a good one. There was a couple good tweets in there.
37:18
Numbers Guy said, "Ben Curtis with the US Open and runner-up at PGA. Steve Stricker's a little more accomplished. And Hale Irwin, who was a stud and played college football, I think, at Colorado."
37:25
That's back in the day, though. And this finally from Keane Kranepool.
37:28
He says, um, "Mentioning pipe smoking at sporting events back in the day, going to the New York Rangers games in the '70s and '80s, the between-periods activity [laughs] in the stairwell of the upper deck blue seats of MSG had plenty of pipe smoking.
37:38
No tobacco in those pipes." [laughs] Uh, yes, I was referring to actual tobacco in the, in the pipes at this Super Bowl.
37:44
But yes, what he's referring to, uh, Washington Bullets, Washington Capitals used to play at the Capital Centre, Kelly. Before your time. Okay. This was in Landover, Maryland. Sweet.
37:54
Abe Pollin, the owner of these two teams at the time, thought, uh, it'd be much quicker to build an arena outside of DC, so he did so. And so for my whole childhood, they played at the Capital Centre.
38:04
If you flew into DC, you saw this, like, it looked like a golf bunker. And the Bullets won a championship there, and the Caps played there as well.
38:09
And, uh, not so much at Bullets and Caps game, but the, we had the concert, people in the DMV will remember this, called Back to School Boogies. Okay.
38:16
Right before the school year started, and it was a bunch of go-go groups, DC, uh, genre, go-go groups and rap groups, early '80s.
38:23
When you walked into the Capital Centre, I'm talking 20, 19,000 people, it smelled like what we used to call reefer. [laughs] From right when you walked in. It was so pungent.
38:34
And I, my thought at the time was, Abe Pollin probably doesn't know about this, right? 'Cause he built the arena. Anyway, that's a good- [laughs] Gil, Gil, those hip kids are calling it the reefer. Watch out.
38:43
That's what we called it back then. All right, NBA. We started with NBA, we'll close with NBA. Game 3 tonight between the Mavericks and the Celtics.
38:49
The Mavericks, during this show, have gone up to a three-point favorite now in Game 3. Um, we don't have an official word on Kristaps Porziņģis.
38:58
I have speculated, and it is only speculation, that he, uh, he can't, like... W- what was the other thing this week? That Dan Hurley was gonna coach the Lakers.
39:07
I think this is less likely than Dan Hurley ever coaching the Lakers. [laughs] I never bought into that either, right? I think, yeah, [laughs] I agree with you. But I just don't think he plays tonight.
39:14
Why w- if you're the Celtics- Why?... why would you play him tonight? You're up two to nothing. You don't know the extent of his injury. Why would you play him?
39:22
I, I do think the conversation gets tough, though, of the, okay, like, it, it's all about a championship, right?
39:28
But, like, when you look at this Celtics team, like, you gotta think, you do have to think a little bit long term, too. Like, this is, this is dynasty type talent. Well, this is, this is what I mean.
39:37
This is why I said earlier, I don't think he plays, forget tonight. He's definitely not playing tonight. I don't think he plays the rest of the series. I doubt he does, too. Because
39:45
you are, you have to think beyond this. I know it's the NBA Finals, I know it's the NBA Championship, but you're in a position right now where you can't th- be thinking about him. Now, Kelly's point is also a valid one.
39:57
Does that even move the needle? Um, if in fact this cracks open the door for the Mavericks, are the Mavericks skilled enough here to take that opening and exploit it? And you have your doubts- Yeah...
40:09
is what you're saying. I do. I, it, real quick on the, on the line move, I don't think I'm gonna get there. This is too much, though, Gil. I, I was, that was gonna be my next question.
40:18
We're gonna clo- we're closing 7.5 Game 1, and we're going all the way on the other side to Celtics catching 3- Yeah... in Game 3 here with how they've played the first two games.
40:29
[laughs] That's gonna be my next question, man. Like, I know we've got all the trends in the world of what, what, you know, 0-2, heading back home. Yeah, the home team, yada, yada, yada.
40:38
That's a big, big line move from where we closed at in Game 1. So I, I'm just saying, that was the, that would be the only side I would consider tonight if I was, if I was going into this with zero bets.
40:49
I'll just be, I think I'll be sitting on the sidelines for this one. We, we always talk about this in football primarily. How much is this player worth? How much is this quarterback worth, right? Mm-hmm.
40:55
Well, I th- I thought this before Porziņģis. When it was 1.5, 2, it was like- Yeah... okay, that's aggressive. So now Porziņ- so this was 1.5 yesterday. It was 2 when we started the show. Went to 2.5, now it's 3. Um-
41:07
I mean- There is literally nothing we've seen. This is the problem with, like, the Ama- there's nothing we've laid eyes on in games one or two that justify this. By the way, did you see...
41:16
I, I know you did, because I, I think, I think you said you had. The, the compilation that someone put together of the blow-bys- Oh, yeah... of Luka Dončić in this series. Oh, yeah.
41:25
Oh, shoot, there was, there's one out there from just Game 2. It's like 14 blow-bys in Game 2. It's- This is, okay, so-... horrible... I'm glad you brought this up, and JVT brought, h- hit on this a little bit.
41:35
I have gone a complete 180 from how I talked about Daniel Gafford before this series.
41:41
What, one thing that ended up working a little bit at the, uh, second half of, of Game 2 was Gafford back in there and them just accepting.
41:49
Because what was happening time after time is blow-by Luka, get into the paint, usually Tatum or Brown, getting into the paint, collapsing defense, and it led to a wide open m- uh, pass to a cutter or someone at the three-point line.
42:04
You can't let these Celtics... I mean, Jrue Holiday scoring nonstop at the rim is not something you can allow. I know you don't want the Celtics team shooting, shooting threes.
42:14
Still make them take a three instead of a wide open layup. So one thing that did seem to affect that was them biting the bullet, putting Gafford in there, and just saying, "We've got it.
42:24
We can't let them get offensive rebounds, and we've got to have someone stopping easy baskets at the rim." So I do think you're gonna see a lot more Gafford tonight than I would've said, uh, before the series.
42:34
I thought this was gonna be a big Derrick Lively series. He's kind of played himself off the court- Mm-hmm... in a lot of these situations. Gafford has proven to be a little bit more successful with that.
42:43
The other big thing is what JVT was talking about earlier. No, okay, Porziņģis out. Let's assu- we'll, we'll assume he's out for the sake of this conversation. Horford steps up.
42:52
There's about 20 more minutes that gotta be filled then from Porziņģis being out. Dallas can attack those 20 m- those 20 minutes where they don't have to worry about five out, for the most part. That's right.
43:03
Everybody on the court shooting. They can get away with one of their big centers being in there and protecting the paint.
43:08
Those minutes will be absolutely crucial tonight, and I do think that Gafford will be a big part of that. So, uh, rebounds, points over, if you wanted to consider that, I wouldn't mind it.
43:18
My only bet's BJ Washington over points. You could go over points and rebounds. Um, he's been one of the few Mavericks playing very well. He's taken advantage of the small matchups that he's had. Want to see Hardaway?
43:29
What was that? Want to see Hardaway? Okay, I, I'm glad you brought that up. I've been pounding the table to see him. Like, I, you can't go down sco- scoring 80 and 90 points in these NBA Finals games.
43:39
You gotta get offense out there. He's, he was their third leading scorer throughout the season. Just can't play defense. Porziņģis changes that a little bit, I think.
43:48
I think he, w- if Porziņģis is out, they, it doesn't force their hand as much to have to go to that. But if, if the offense is still bogged down and not working, doesn't change it at all.
43:57
Maxi Kleber, I don't want to see him on the court. If, h- here's the thing. If the Mavericks win tonight, no one's gonna be that shocked, at least I won't be, and then it will change the entire narrative of this, right?
44:08
Yeah, yeah. To, check in with me if, if there's, like, a second lob or third lob, third lob that goes down. Yeah. Check in with me, 'cause I'll be jumping up and down, Gil.
44:17
[laughs] But you're not taking the Celtics +3 yet, just, just officially? No. No? Okay. If it ticks up any more, you might, though. Yeah. Yeah. It's getting there. Uh, we've done all we can do.
44:26
GoJoe Golick next on the radio side. On the picture side, it's Best Bets. Enjoy from VSiN, the sports betting network.
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