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Jun 12, 2025
A Numbers Game | June 12, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | June 12, 2025 | Hour 1
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44:55
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:11
This is Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. This is Kelly Bidlin, everybody. This is a Numbers Game.
0:24
How you doing, man? Doing great. How about you? I'm good. You have, uh, any J.J. Spaun by any chance? Nah. Nah. [laughs] That's early. It's early. It's early. It's early.
0:33
I was trying to tell Dave Ross though, there could be more surprising guys at the top. J.J. Spaun ain't no joke. No, he ain't, he ain't no joke. He used to let, he used to let the mic smoke. True.
0:43
Um, here's the thing about J.J. Spaun today, uh, i- this year, by the way, just to give you an update, J.J. Spaun four under currently at the United States Open at Oakmont, uh, in Oakmont, Pennsylvania.
0:55
A one-stroke lead over your boy, Gary Woodland. Wood- Do you have any Gary Woodland? Nope, which I would have. Eh, I don't wanna say extreme FOMO, 'cause I didn't really, I didn't really get close to Gary this week.
1:05
Okay. A two-stroke lead over some names. Ober, which I know you do have. That's right. Ludvig Ober. Rory McIlroy also two under. Rory coming for them receipts this week, Gil.
1:15
Yeah, he's like, uh- Two bad weeks, everybody been talking crap. I'm coming. I've heard, I've heard everybody talking about me. [laughs] Watch this. Si Woo Kim also two back. A whole bunch of guys two back.
1:24
Uh, but, uh, John Michael Spaun. Why is he J.J. by the way? His name's John Michael. Oh, no idea.
1:29
Uh, Si Woo is the one at the, uh, in the top of the leaderboard right now that, or in that f- first page of the leaderboard. That would be the FOMO. Yes. 'Cause I got very close to betting him.
1:39
I, not really outright, but top 20s, top 10s, and stayed away. J.J. Spaun this year on tour, uh, best results, T3 at the Sony Open in Hawaii to start the year.
1:49
Uh, tied for second at the Cognizant Classic in, uh, February, at the end of February. Then of course most famously, lost in a playoff to Rory, right? Mm-hmm. At the Players Championship. Yep.
2:01
Um, that was his best result. And then since then he's kind of, I gu- I g- he did finish T6 at the Charles Schwab, but that's his only notable result since the Players Championship.
2:10
Missed the cut last week at the Memorial. Read into that whatever you want to. But that's, you know, the, the best he's ever done at a major, T23 at a Masters. So here he is again, very early.
2:21
Uh, [laughs] Dave was also upset that, the, we, we have 11 golfers under par. He was very angry about this. I, I kind of just made up a number. Yeah. Is that what it is though?
2:29
No, it's- I think it is like- It's, uh, yeah... somewhere close to that... it's 13 under par. Yeah. He, yeah, he, he's saying this is the Oakmont we, uh, this is not the Oakmont we were promised.
2:37
I said, "Dave, let's give it more than an hour or two, okay? Let's see how the w- afternoon conditions play out."
2:42
But there are a lot of big names, as you usually see at a US Open, that are not doing well, including one I bet on, Shane Lowry, three over par, uh, through seven holes, so he's struggling mightily out there.
2:53
Bryson's three back. Bryson's lurking. Yeah, he's three back. I'm talking three over par for Shane Lowry. Oh, yeah. Hideki's three over par. Yep.
3:00
Um, Cameron Smith two over, Akshay Bhatia two over, Matt Fitzpatrick two over, Xander Schauffele two over, Keegan Bradley two over. So there are plenty of good golfers out there struggling. Scheffler yet to tee off.
3:12
Scheffler yet to tee off, and I think a, a good note by the, uh, by the by the books guys, uh, check prices right now if you're interested in, in Scheffler.
3:20
He's about three to one, a little over three to one I think you can get right now if you want. A slightly favor- slightly more favorable price than you would've gotten in pre-flop- Yep...
3:27
with the, uh, with the start by Spaun and some others. Um, to the NBA. Well, first of all, on the show today, by the way, usually Thursdays are Zach and Crack. Uh, no Zach today.
3:35
Zach is on assignment, as we like to say here on the show. But Crack will be here. True.
3:39
Crack will be here a segment earlier, because we're gonna get him out a segment earlier, because we're gonna talk to Stormy and JBT live from Omaha at the College World Series today, the, uh, co-host of Money Moves.
3:50
Money Moves. Stormy and JBT later on the show, but, uh, Crack before that, and, uh, a little segment of Are We Sure coming up as well. Estamos Seguros. That's right. As well. Look forward to that.
3:59
NBA last night, oh, boy, oh, boy. Well, well, well. Look at that In- look at that Indiana Pacer squad. Up two to one now in the best of seven NBA finals.
4:10
They beat the, uh, the Oklahoma City Thunder yesterday, and did so, uh, while obviously covering the spread. They were five-and-a-half point dogs, uh, pre-flop. They win it outright, um, by the score, what was it?
4:23
116 to 107- Close... final score on this one. Uh, it goes under, by the way, VSiN Challenge.
4:29
Fezzik gets another win, so it's a, it's a, it's a two-man race, Fezzik and Zach Cohen at the top of the VSiN Killer Sports Challenge. I've s- I've still, I haven't, I, it's not that I've forgotten.
4:39
I have still yet to make a bet in r- uh, in the finals. A few people have yet to make, but I think a few people are just like, "I'm, I'm done." I actually, I think I played game one.
4:46
So I might've bet, I might've already- Yeah... down one if that's the case. It's Fezzik in first. It's, uh, it's Zach Cohen in second. First prize, 3,000, second prize, $500.
4:54
And, uh, I'm in third, and only two people get money. So there you go. [laughs] I cannot get to first or second. Um, it is a two-man race. Kazerian could get to second.
5:05
Those are, we're the only four that are still alive here. He could get to second if he starts making plays, but he could also, uh, finish third or fourth. I could finish only third or fourth.
5:13
So Fezzik with the edge over Zach. And remember, there's a tiebreaker involved. The tiebreaker is who did you pick as the NBA champion?
5:21
I don't know if either took the Indiana Pacers or not, but- I started off so hot, Gil. So hot. Yeah, I, uh- Yeah... I start, this is the thing. This, and I said this to Steve yesterday.
5:29
I'm like, "Here's the difference between me and you. I have the under in game two. Um, 130 points are scored in the second half, so I lose against the 230. You last night have the under.
5:40
There's like 120-some points- [laughs]... scored in the first half, and you luck box your way into a win." Eh. That's the story with that kid. Uh, good for him though.
5:47
So I hope he, he and Zach, uh, battle it out to the end. It's, uh, Fezzik has one more pick and Zach has two more. But as for the game last night, um, this is getting real, real quick. Oh, it's real. Real quick.
5:59
It's real. Um- The Indiana Pacers, and this, it was a topsy-turvy game, and we could go through all the, uh, the rollercoaster.
6:06
By the way, if, if you are not watching the NBA playoffs, I know there's a lot of people who, who are making themselves feel good about missing some of the NBA playoffs by saying, "Oh, it's been terrible." No, it hasn't.
6:14
It's been awesome. Mm-hmm. Um, and this game last night, 15 to f- uh, it was, excuse me, a 16 to seven, s- pardon me, 15 to six run for OKC to start the game.
6:23
Indiana cut it to two at 22 to 20, but then OKC surged to a 10 to four run at the end of the first quarter, 32, 24. Uh, later in the second quarter, there was a 15 to four run by the Pacers to start the quarter.
6:34
They took the lead by three. Um, OKC caught them, then they scored. Pacers did seven unanswered late in the second quarter to go up 49, 42. It was part of a 25 to 10 run. But OKC caught them at 51.
6:48
Little Pacers run at the end of the half, 64, 60, Indiana at halftime. Bench scoring at that point, 30 to 11. The Thunder would score the first eight of the second half to go up four.
6:59
Pacers would score six to retake the lead. Then Haliburton came alive. Pacers took the lead again, 79, 76. And then OKC with a 13 to five run to end the quarter to take a five-point lead into the fourth.
7:12
And I just wanna bookmark it there because to me, this game, and then the stats, you know, the final stats of this game are that the Indiana bench, uh, we'll get to that. W- Williams for, in defeat for the OKC.
7:25
Williams 26, SGA 24, Holmgren 20 and 10 for Indiana. Um, just a, just an amazing performance by, by so many. But I wanna seize on the bench, and specifically TJ McConnell.
7:40
Uh, Indiana's bench outscored OKC's bench 49 to 18 in this game. And it was the story of the game, but McConnell... By the way, Mathurin led the Pacers with 27.
7:50
Haliburton, 22, nine, and 11, a rebound shy of a triple double. Thank God. So again, for those like Perk who said he can't do things in this series, well, there's your answer. Siakam 21.
8:02
Of those 49 points that Indiana scored off the bench, 10 of them were from TJ McConnell. TJ McConnell ended up with a scoring line of 10 points, five assists, and five steals in 15 minutes.
8:12
He's the first NBA player since the 1973, '74 finals to put up those numbers. Uh, he's now averaging 10 points, five assists, 2.7 steals during these finals in just over 60 minutes per game.
8:24
But he made, he had five steals, and I just wanna highlight three of them because if you don't, you don't see this in a box score.
8:31
But last night, uh, there was three, three of his five steals were off inbounds passes after Indiana Pacers baskets. Uh, the first one, Siakam had a layup that cut it to 32 to 26. This is in the second quarter.
8:43
Mc- McConnell steals it from Cason Wallace, uh, on an inbounds pass. It was intent- excuse me, the f- yeah, it was intended for Holmgren. He immediately dishes it to Siakam, McConnell does, who misses a three.
8:54
McConnell gets the offensive board. He feeds Mathurin for a four-footer to cut it to four. Another time, Nesmith scores to make it 34, 32 right after that.
9:03
McConnell, faking like he's running down court, hits the brakes as Wallace inbounds, steals it again, throws it off of Wallace to maintain possession.
9:10
And then the biggest play of the game, and I would argue it, it is hard to distill any series into one game, let alone one play.
9:18
But if Indiana goes on to win this series, and I would argue once again, it would be the greatest, most improbable run of any postseason in any North American team sport we've ever seen based on the four games where they've won with 2% win probability on average in those four games, one in each of these series.
9:35
But if they do, and you could distill it to anything beyond those amazing late game plays by, by Haliburton, it's 95-91 OKC last night.
9:45
And you sort of, this is the fourth quarter, you sort of feel like, "Wow, the Pacers put up a great effort tonight, but I don't know if they're gonna get home, and if they lose this game, I don't know if they have any chance of winning this series."
9:57
And Nemhardt hits a 15-footer to cut it to 95-93. This is with 8:39 left in the game. Caruso tries to get it into SGA. This is again on the inbounds pass right after that.
10:08
I don't know if McConnell's invisible to him or whatever, but McConnell with his, you know, little self compared to the other players, jumps as high as he can, steals the ball, puts it right up, bank shot, snatches it, and it's 95-95.
10:19
And the rest of the way, the rest of the way, the Pacers would outscore the Thunder 21 to 12, and they win it once again by the final of, uh, was that 106 to- 116 to 107. Uh, 116 to, uh, 116 to 107. Pardon me.
10:35
So that's, I mean, that to me, McConnell was a, that will always be re- for me, the TJ McConnell game. I'm, I, I didn't, I didn't wanna interrupt at all, Gil, 'cause I completely agree with you.
10:44
I mean, that was, it, and it was, it started early. First quarter was OKC. Second quarter, McConnell and Mathu- Mathurin check in.
10:51
Those two took over right away, and we haven't w- there's not many games that we've seen this OKC... I mean, look, it is the classic story if you wanna go to this, this narrative, right?
11:00
The classic story of the bench and the role players show up bigger at home, right? And it's OKC, the role, role players and the bench gave them absolutely nothing last night. Indiana bench outscores OKC 49 to 18.
11:12
But it was so much of McConnell and the magic beans that he always brings to these basketball games- Magic beans...
11:19
that he shows up, and those steals on the inbounds passes, just, it just motion, uh, you know, motion stuff they get, get these NBA players are so used to doing and turning the ball over because McCon- McConnell just gives them a bit of a head fake.
11:32
And it was him and Mathurin were the differences in this game. Haliburton looking much more comfortable at home. Uh, this is a series, man.
11:39
Pacers installed once again as six-point favorites in game f- s- six-point dogs in game four. I'll play 'em again just like I did last night and in the contest. I'm out of bullets in the contest, but I'll play 'em again.
11:50
I'll bet 'em. Give me the points.
11:52
[upbeat rock music]Sports Betting Network And don't forget to get VSiN's exclusive betting splits for as little as $9.99 for your first month.
12:13
Get started now. Vsin.com/subscribe. 9.99, Kelly. Just $9.99. That's it. What a deal. What a deal. We get tweets at Beating The Book, always appreciate the feedback. By the way, let me just say this.
12:25
Everybody stop sending me fat Deebo pictures and video. Everybody send me fat Deebo Samuel- [laughs]... video from Redskins' pr- excuse me, from the Commanders practice. [laughs] It sucks.
12:35
I g- I guess I ignored them 'cause I was tagged on a couple of them, but is it really that bad? Uh- Like, Deebo's always- It's a little bit... like a bigger guy. He's a little portly, a little chunky. Oh, okay.
12:43
All right. Yeah. He's not moving. Let's put it this way. Uh, every 10 yards, f- I, I feel the s- the strain in him that he's running back with. He looks fine. [laughs] He's ready to run over linebackers.
12:54
I'm looking at it right now. Jesse Welch, "Good morning, fellas. So how much is OKC giving up [laughs] to get Giannis next season?" He's already there. Hey.
13:03
Up two to one are the Pacers, so it's already, we're already in OKC talk. I said don't, I said don't rule it out unless those guys are putting rings on their fingers. Like, it is, I think it is still extremely live.
13:12
Here's the thing, though. Game f- I mean, listen, I mean, every game is important. It's an NBA finals, for goodness sake.
13:18
But when you are up two to one, and specifically when you have home court five and seven, and specifically when you don't, right, as the Pacers, game four appears to be everything.
13:29
'Cause if OKC wins, it's like, okay, it's a best of three and we got home court. But if the Pacers win, man, oh. And let me just say this, too, like the series price on the Pacers right now is about plus 180.
13:40
I would not play that because the game four price is better than that. The game four price alone, again, the, it's all derivative of the, uh, the, the, uh, spread, right? The spread is six points.
13:51
Uh, Pacers are six-point dogs. The money line on the Pacers in game four is $2, uh, roughly, so it's better than the series price on the Pacers.
14:00
But I think we all kind of would agree that if the Pacers win this series, it's going to involve winning game four, unless you think otherwise, right?
14:08
Unless you think they're gonna, it's gonna go two to two, and then the Pacers are gonna take two out of the last three. But that, to me, you do not play the series price on the Pacers. Just play the game four money line.
14:18
I love it. We, we're in lockstep today, man. Yeah. The, uh, s- oh, I thought about this one. Now we're gonna be on opposite sides of this one. It applies to the Thunder, too. If you like the Thunder- Yeah...
14:28
I, I, you, I'd just bet game four. And you can add the series price if you want, but it's basically the same thing. I bet the Thunder last night minus 225 for game four. I just laid the money line.
14:37
I didn't wanna mess around with the points. But I played the money line. Um, I mean, look, it's series on the line. OKC has to win this game if the, if this is gonna continue.
14:45
I think same thing if you're talking about the Pacers side. They win that game, it's likely over.
14:50
I, I'll tell you the one, the one, and the bigger reason though I'd rather bet game four as an OKC backer than the, than the series, you know, this goes to seven.
14:58
I, I mean, the one advantage that, that at least I, at least I said, a- and I know o- I mean, others have, too, but I didn't give Indiana much other advantages [laughs]- Yeah... than this. Coaching.
15:08
Rick Carlisle, and I think Dags is, is struggling a little bit right now in this series. I mean, he either decided...
15:14
I'm interested to see what happens in game four because he decided, we talked about this leading into the series, when would they go small? He went small from game one.
15:23
He messed around with the starting lineup, changed it out, and did that game one. Now I'm interested to see if he does he go back and go back to playing what this team is used to in their regular rotations.
15:33
'Cause when you look at bench numbers from last night, and they're not doing anything, clearly these guys are not comfortable.
15:38
So I'm very interested in that, but yeah, I think it's the betting, the betting conversation of game verse series is interesting. It is.
15:44
And I came to the same conclusion, that I would rather bet game four than a series price. Game four tomorrow night, once again, in Indiana at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
15:53
Uh, I don't wanna say it's all for all the marbles 'cause it's never for all the marbles in a two to one series in game four, but it sure feels that way.
16:00
It, it, and maybe I didn't say that right, but like game seven, we're back in OKC. Yeah. I don't, that is way more coin flippy all of a sudden. Oh. I mean, game seven.
16:08
A, a game seven could get, how can I put this, sphincterific. Yes, exactly. Exactly. Sphincterific.
16:13
So if I was, if I was looking to back OKC, I would try to, that's why I would bet this, just try to take that game seven out of the picture.
16:20
Uh, wolfnamedwayne, "Love you guys and always will, but how do we not lead with the Pacers? Let's get to the real story in sports." What, oh, what, 'cause we updated the US Open scoreboard he was, uh, he was upset about?
16:28
I guess. US Open leaderboard. Uh, Jamie Leyva, "45 seconds into the show, Gil with I Ain't No Joke from Eric B. & Rakim. If you were looking for that in your local book, it was under Quick Hits. Cash that ticket."
16:38
Thank you. [laughs] Uh, Chris Heath. Oh, Chris Heath is lamenting the fact that he had a, uh, a Gary Woodland ticket. What was this for? The 2019 US Open at 75 to 1. He's like, "No Gary FOMO over here.
16:51
Seeing him atop the leaderboard brings me back." Uh, MasterofPuppets, "Hey, Gil, headed to Vegas this weekend. Here's a trade for you.
16:57
Tell me the sushi spot and I'll bring you to Wu-Tang in Ontario, Canada, in a suite, everything paid for, next Friday night." Wait, what?
17:04
[laughs] So he wants to, he wants to pay, give me a whole paid trip to see Wu-Tang in Canada if I tell him the name of the sushi spot.
17:11
What if Gil tells you the name of the t- the sushi spot and then I go with you to Wu-Tang? Why can't I go to Wu-Tang? Well, I don't know either. [laughs] Why, what happened to why? Why can't, can we both go to Wu-Tang?
17:20
[laughs] How, how did I, how did I get a lose? Can, can we go the show on remote? [laughs] That does sound fun. Uh, Mike Montesano, "Deebo looks like a fullback," he says.
17:26
Yes, well, that's what he, you know, he kind of always, has always kind of been part running back, right? Which he objects to.
17:31
Uh, and then T Sheldahl, "OKC is, OKC still -230 series favorite even though game three winners to go up two to one are 80% winners." Yeah, if you're up two to one, you, you end up winning 80% of the time.
17:44
Well, interesting. Um, so I just wanted to make that point about game four versus the series price as well, and apparently- I love it... apparently we were, uh, we didn't even speak about that.
17:52
We were on the same, um, thinking. Um- Yeah, I mean, it, it's, no matter how good you think the Thunder are. Right. A- and I think they're, and I think they're great. I think they're great.
18:01
They've got, they've gotta win this game four. If we're s- if you're talking about them winning this series, it is, it is a tall task. We've only seen it, what, once, two, twice with 3-1 down, 3-1?
18:12
[laughs] 3-1 has happened 13 total times. A three, a comeback from a 3-1 deficit in the NBA playoffs has only happened 13 times in history.
18:20
It has only happened one time In NBA Finals history, we all know what that was, LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers against the 73-win Golden State Warriors. 73 wins of the regular season. I- So that's it...
18:32
I can't get over the McConnell stuff. Ser- like, like I...
18:35
For the people like me who watch NBA every night during the regular season, and I'm sitting on my couch with a cocktail, like laughing where I'm like, [laughs] "DJ McConnell making these guys look- Yeah... like fools."
18:44
But, you know, it's a regular season game in January. It doesn't matter much. It's the NBA Finals and it's like- It's incredible... they still don't know how, where, how TJ O- uh, TJ McConnell operates.
18:55
Like it is amazing. Three, three times in the same game. And again, I will argue if you can...
18:59
The, listen, listen, it's hard to argue against the, the Halliburton heroics [laughs] at the end of these games during the playoffs. That will always be the real reason why the Pacers were able to do this.
19:09
But th- the category beyond that will be TJ McConnell last night. I mean- That was, that was unbelievable...
19:14
I think the other, the other, the concern, one of the, another concern if you're an OKC fan, backer on the team, whatever. Gil, you and I play this game all the time with, with NBA games.
19:24
Pull up this box score and tell me where was the major outlier? Yeah. And the only takeaway, the bench scoring differential is the only big differential. OKC won most of these stat battles for this game.
19:36
They out-rebounded them. They shot better than Indiana. Like this is, it's a concern.
19:41
You got outplayed in the minutes that mattered at the end of that game, and i- and when the stars left the floor, the benches dominated. Indiana, 13 steals and 11 blocks. Is that good? Good God.
19:54
Who ha- who has the best defense in the league again? That's r- [laughs] that's exactly right. It was turn of events last night. Anyways- I mean, I, I don't know. I got, I got...
20:00
It just made me excited for, because I think we're- Yeah... I think we're in for a long series now. Yeah. Like I- this is... If OKC had won last night, I think it was gonna end up being a runaway.
20:09
I think we are in for a very long series, and no, I'm not gonna sit here and tell you I know OK- Oklahoma City's winning this series anymore. They, they, they got two wins under their belts. This thing is up for grabs.
20:19
Did you see the Ben Fox tweet, our old buddy Ben Fox, last night? Did you see the tweet that he had? Mm-mm. Um, Jay-Z. You familiar with Jay-Z? Otherwise known as- Oh, yeah, I heard about this. Yeah...
20:28
Beyonce's husband, uh, placed a $1 million wager on the Thunder to win the NBA Finals in five games at plus 230 odds at Fanatics. Really? Fanatics got, got him a limit for a million bucks?
20:39
[laughs] Uh, bet would've won $3.3 million. Dunzo. Sorry, Jay-Z, for tailing me. That, that, that, that sucks. Apologize. Oh, no, Jay-Z will sur- He did lose that bet last night. Yeah. The, it, the OKC in five? Yeah.
20:53
But you know, shocker, it wasn't looking great already after game one. By the way, uh, hockey tonight, obviously s- takes center stage.
20:59
Game four in the NHL Stanley Cup Final with Florida up two to one on Edmonton as it's, it's sort of the same situation, but not exactly. I wouldn't put it the same way, 'cause after all, it is hockey.
21:12
Um, and so I, I think a three to one comeback by the Oilers would be far more likely than... I don't know about far more likely- But still... because we are talking about eight. Yeah.
21:20
Yeah, we are start talking, we are talking about OKC. Y- you don't wanna lose game four. You don't wanna go down three to one still, right? So it's a huge game in Sunrise tonight, obviously.
21:30
Uh, Florida is up to a minus 146 favorite. Tick more of a favorite than they were in game three in Sunrise.
21:38
Um, we'll have so- I think we have something coming up on this probably in Are We Sure on this, but, uh, the Panthers look to, uh, do this. And of course, Conn Smythe implications abound. Mm-hmm.
21:48
Because if, uh, Florida wins this, obviously the, uh, the two Oilers players, McDavid and Draisaitl, will drop accordingly. Uh, 'cause again, it's gonna come from the winning team.
21:59
And then Florida, it's really a scrum right now. And then how does Florida win this? Does Bobrovsky get back into the Conn Smythe race based on the outcome of this game?
22:08
Like if, if there's a shutout tonight, let's just say for instance- Right... right? Does Bobrovsky, uh, rise in this? Sam Bennett right now plus 105. There's McDavid at plus 240. Marchand at six to one.
22:18
Bobrovsky at seven to one. There's Draisaitl at 13 to one. It'll come from that group of five, either way this goes. So huge game. You don't have to play in the hockey game tonight, do you? No. Yeah. Not yet.
22:29
[laughs] Not yet. [laughs] But here's the thing. I'm doing m- a lot of the in-game where it's like, okay, a team's up a goal. You know, what's the price on a goal and a half in case there's an empty netter?
22:39
Do a lot of that sort of pricing stuff. No, I think that's a g- Yeah... great call. Yeah. Lot of that. Not that Edmonton hasn't had their share of heroics this playoff, so you know, tread lightly also.
22:49
Or be careful, I should say. Uh, we'll come back. Are We Sure? Next on The Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:55
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23:23
Use promo code VSiN200 to claim a 20% rebate for your first 60 days, up to $200. Head to firstbet.com today. Gil Alexander, we had tweets that beat the book. A wolf named Wayne checked back in.
23:34
He said, uh, "We got there pretty quickly on the Pacers. I'm sorry. Just an Indiana boy hoping his team gets the props they deserve. You guys made me smile. Thank you." You are welcome.
23:43
Stringfellow Hawk, "Listening on delay, but let a rock Em line go unacknowledged. Come on." No, we acknowledged it afterwards. Uh, and then ItsRBIs, um, I don't, well, I'm too far into it now. I have to read it.
23:57
But this is, it's an interesting thing with it 'cause people like to crush NBA hardos. Hmm.
24:01
And they sort of weaponized my, my talk where I'm like, I think NBA hardos almost are at a disadvantage having watched the regular season when it comes to the playoffs to a degree, um, because it's such a different sport in the, uh, in the postseason.
24:15
But he says, "After the Pacers win it all, I can't wait for the Kelly, Bidlin, and ANG breakdown of OKC being a better team." Oh, I've gotten a ton of these tweets. It's fine. Okay. All right.
24:26
I, I, I already scooped up my money for the Western Conference, so I- Yeah... you know. So there you go. You don't, you don't care[laughs] You don't care.
24:34
I mean, this is one of those, like, I feel ba- Like, hey, we've got to preview and talk about the games. I'm gonna tell you how I feel about these teams. Yeah.
24:39
But, like, I've also told you for seven months how I've been betting the Oklahoma City Thunder. Yeah. Yeah. And my tickets are home. I'm good. Both things are true, I think. A- again, another killer challenge.
24:48
I- interesting that Fezzik and I are two of the top three, right? And we are not N- NBA hardos. So I think both things are true.
24:54
But yes, you absolutely should, you should say that out loud, 'cause people seem to take some glee in that, right? Yeah. Yeah. It's, it's, we, we...
25:00
You know, it's the short-term approach and view of what this t- what, what this series [laughs] and what the NBA is based off of what, how I've been betting it for six months. Yep.
25:10
Uh, East Sideria, Evan Sideria, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shooting 35.3% in the NBA finals when guarded by Andrew Nembhard or Aaron Nesmith. Nembhard has held him to seven for 20, 35% with five turnovers.
25:22
Nesmith, five for 14, 35.7%, two turnovers. Two turnovers. Indiana's top two defenders making it very tough on SGA. They've been incredible. They were one of the big, b- two biggest X factors heading into this series.
25:35
How well could they defend SGA? We knew they were gonna get much of the attention. Also, two of the big reasons, Gil, why I did bet Indiana Pacers in two of the series earlier in the playoff series. I, yeah.
25:46
Yeah, that's right. [laughs] Get it in there. Get it back, Kelly. Pacers have been awesome. I'm not trying to kill the Pacers, man. No, you're not. You're not.
25:53
Uh, I as well, of course, had the Pacers the last two series as well. It's, it's been great. And have them almost in every game plus the points. It's, it's been a, a wonderful financial boon.
26:00
Um, by the way, MLB season win totals, June. Uh, Tigers took a hit yesterday. They lose to the Orioles, and they are not at the top of, they are not even anywhere near the top of the leaderboard this morning.
26:11
Mets, Blue Jays, Giants, all eight and two. The Giants finally had the decency not to, not to win a one-run game last night. I think they had won, like, six in a row, one-run games, but they win again.
26:23
Diamondbacks and Angels right behind them at seven and three.
26:26
Now, this is, once again, now the way that May ended, I didn't end up having any self-loathing 'cause the Cardinals miraculously won on the final day of the month of May, and I didn't ever consider the Cardinals.
26:36
But remember, the other teams that I had sort of identified, even though I went with the Padres, were all circling the, the top of the leaderboard and probably should have won but didn't. Here, same sort of thing.
26:48
While I took the Tigers, two of these five teams I considered and were part of my top four that I mentioned at the beginning of the month, the Giants and the Diamondbacks.
26:58
And remember, if these are, these are up at D- at, uh, DraftKings mid-month still, that they still put this market up, the Diamondbacks finish with a really easy flourish on this schedule. Mm.
27:08
So the fact that they're banking wins here, and the reason I didn't go with them, 'cause I didn't trust their bullpen, but they're banking wins, and they close with a nine-game stretch where they are playing the, uh, the poo-poo platter, if you will, of, uh, Major League Baseball teams.
27:24
So that's, you know, that's if, if they're, these are, are- Yeah, interesting... remain up, then that's a, that's a thing to think about depending on what the Diamondbacks price was. Diamondbacks six to one.
27:35
Diamondbacks are six to one right now. And again, the, uh, the close of the month for the Diamondbacks, you ready for this? At Colorado, at the White Sox, home Miami, before they play a final one- Oh, man...
27:47
one game against the Giants to round it out. But those are nine out of their last 10. So is that, is that not a bet? It feels like a bet to me. I...
27:56
Remember when we were on here and I gave out the six- We don't, we don't get this updated, like, on Caesars or anything? No, we don't get it updated. Shucks. Not in Nevada. Shucks. Yeah. Good breakdown by Gil Alexander.
28:07
Yeah. Hopefully you, uh, can take advantage of that.
28:09
Remember, that was the one where, where the, the Tigers 16 to one was off the board the day that I gave that out, and I'm like, "Well, but if I was betting it now," before we knew that the, the DraftKings had the 16 to one on them, I said I'd take the Diamondbacks 14 to one 'cause of that flourish.
28:20
We'll see. We'll see what happens here. Hey, Tigers back out to 18 to one if you'd like to join me and Gil. [laughs] That's right. You're welcome. You're welcome to join us.
28:27
Tigers are, uh, six and four, I believe, right behind this group. All right, Are We Sure? Estamos Seguros? And it goes a little something like this.
28:34
[upbeat music] You think you know what's going on in the sports betting world? Are you sure? I'm positive. Gil and Kelly tackle the hard-hitting questions on another exciting edition of Are We Sure?
28:49
Who said, uh, "I'm positive"? Who said that? Marisa Tomei. Is that her? Yeah, it's that scene- Oh, okay... it's the scene, remember she gets on the stand 'cause she talks about how the cars work? Oh. Oh.
28:59
[laughs] And they're all like, "Sarcast- Are you sure?" [laughs] Are you sure? What do you mean, w- what's utes? Uh- I still can't belie- I can't... I, I apologize.
29:07
I'm gonna apologize every time because someone tweeted that in suggesting we use that- And we don't remember who suggested it... for, for the open, and I don't remember who it was. All right.
29:15
And it was an awesome sug- suggestion. Please, person- All right... identify yourself and send that tweet. That's right. Are we sure the Thunder should be minus 220 to win the NBA Finals, Gil? No, we're not.
29:25
They're down two to one. Yeah, we're not sure. They are, I mean, again, 68 wins. Um, they had the most wins heading into an NBA Finals.
29:34
Um, the only two teams that had more wins heading into an N- NBA Finals, I should say, were the 72-win Bulls and the 73-win Warriors.
29:43
So it, it, it, this team, I get it, they are potentially still epic in terms of what they done, but boy, oh boy, no, they shouldn't be that big of a favorite. 'Cause the Pacers are deep.
29:54
I know OKC's deep, but man, how deep are both of these teams? Pacers, the, the bench has been, and the bench last night, again, massive. It feels like a...
30:03
It, it actually feels for the long-term storylines for the NBA from this series, what are the big takeaways? It's that these teams with depth- Yes...
30:12
making it to the finals, and how the financial situations are changing in the NBA, this is gonna be more and more difficult to create quality teams with deeper benches.
30:20
It also bucks the, the, you know, the thing about, well, the rotations get smaller, right? And that's a, that's a, you know, a thing to keep in mind. Not here. Yeah.
30:28
Uh, okay, are we sure Giannis should want to leave Milwaukee? Oh yeah, we're sure about that. Okay. Why? Why do you say, why does that come up? Uh, just some of these teams that it's been li- he's been linked to.
30:39
I mean, if we're talking the Toronto Raptors. Yeah, no, he doesn't wanna do that, but that wasn't the question. We are sure he wants to leave. But you didn't say spec- specifically where.
30:47
Did, did you also catch, I left this out of the show yesterday, so, so I guess he had, he had not ruled out or he was, he had some quote, but it was in [laughs] Brazil translated by a Brazilian, like, newspaper.
30:59
This happened, like, two days ago. Um, and, uh, but, like, the quote was basically like, "I would love to, you know, would love to go a long way with Milwaukee," something like that.
31:07
And everybody was just questioning whether it all got translated properly. Oh, right. And I'm like, yeah, that's probably a fair- Yeah... fair question.
31:13
Okay, are we sure either the NBA or Stanley Cup Final will go to a game seven? Are we sure that either will? Yeah. No, we're not sure about that.
31:23
I [laughs] If, if Florida won in five or six and the Pacers won in six, would you be all that surprised? I'm feeling like we're getting a game seven in one of these. Maybe even both.
31:33
Well, you said, "Are we sure we won't?" Yeah. That's different phraseology is what that is. No, I said will. Will go to. Final will go to a game seven. Oh, yeah. W- are we sure that we will?
31:43
I was like, I'm not sure that. Yeah, you say you're not sure. I'm not sure of that. Yeah. I think I'm sure. I'm sure. Oh, okay. You're sure one of them does. How do I bet that prop?
31:49
[laughs] Sure to be, I'm sure it'll be rampantly available in Nevada. [laughs] Yes. Yes. Yes. Absolutely.
31:54
Are we sure the Panthers should be minus 260 to win this, uh, Stanley Cup despite being up only one game in the series?
32:02
Uh, you know, a, a hockey expert could, could chime in on that better than I could, but my response is always, no, it's hockey. Like, I w- I would not lay minus 260.
32:10
Edmonton wins tonight, it has a whole totally different feel to me. Uh, sweet prop up at DraftKings. Uh, are we sure we won't see a game with 10 plus goals? [laughs] 'Cause there's, that's a prop up, and I love it.
32:23
Um, again, would, would it be that shocking? I mean, the Oilers don't know what they're doing in the net tonight, right? Yeah. I, uh, it, no, I'm, I, I think it could happen. For sure it could happen.
32:33
Plus 210 on the yes for it to happen. That seems like a fun bet. I'd like a little more bang for the buck, though. Yeah, me too. Yeah. Me too. All right.
32:39
Are we sure the Conn Smythe is already down to one of the top five guys on the odds board? I, I said it last segment. Yes.
32:45
Yes, it is one of those top five guys, meaning Bennett, McDavid, Marchand, Bobro- uh, Bobrovsky, or Draisaitl. It, it feels early still in this series, but yeah, probably. All right. Are we sure
33:00
the White Sox first five success will continue? [laughs] Uh, just because we brought it up yesterday, no. That's what everybody wants to know, though, Gil. Come on.
33:08
Um- You gotta be able to predict everything in the future. Uh, what, say it again. Are we sure what? Their success will continue first five innings. To the point that it will be a betting, plussy V bet? Yeah, we- No.
33:21
Okay. No. Net positive at the end of the season or no? From this point forward, if we just started at zero now? Sh, yeah. Let's go that way. Hmm, I think it's gonna be just below zero. [upbeat music] All right.
33:33
Putting Gil on the hot seat. I mean, I'd love to see it be positive, though, 'cause I just think it's such a quirky stat.
33:40
What we're referring to is that the White Sox, not good at baseball in real life, but in first five bets, the fourth-best team, the fourth most profitable. Again, year two that they're doing this.
33:50
Not quite as dramatically as last year, but still. Uh, we'll come back. Early arrival from the Crack Man, Bill Krackenberger. Unscripted, Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:00
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Don't forget to check out the Sharp Plays.
34:17
Unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting information, and alerts directly from the pros. We invite you to take a look. sharpplays.com.
34:29
Gil Alexander, we get tweets @beatingthebook. Uh, actually, we get texts as well. Jay Sullivan, our old buddy Jay Sullivan, uh, listening to us, enjoying you and Kelly from the Hard Day's Night Hotel in Liverpool. Wow.
34:43
Very flattered that you would listen to us from there, Jay. Appreciate it. Hope you're having a good time. Martel J, "What's T- [laughs] what's Team Semite going to do with all of VSiN in Omaha?
34:53
Maybe a latke and matzo ball soup segment tomorrow?" I don't know. They didn't really leave us anything behind, so we'll see what, you know, we'll just pay for it ourselves. Sure. Uh, let's see.
35:01
Jay Buckley, "10 days till back in Vegas for contest signups, circus shenanigans, and hopefully seeing you guys while we're out there. Can't wait." Jay, come by and say hello. And C. Spackler tweets in, "Yay, Crack.
35:14
I just like typing that." Without further ado, Unscripted with Crack Man, Bill Krackenberger.
35:19
[upbeat music] Ah, there he is. Morning. In the flesh. Yes.
35:35
It's Bill Krackenberger, everybody. For those who are new to the show, iconic gambling figure here in Las Vegas, Nevada, with his Kangol. Oh. [laughs] How you doing? Good. What's going on?
35:45
Sorry I, I failed to tell you that I was out last week. Oh, no, it's okay. I came down and, uh, just, you know, they don't, no one else wants me on except for you, so they're, everyone's,
35:53
you know, they just said, "No, Bill, you can't come on." So I just walked out and went home, went home. [laughs] No, you didn't come down here, did you? No. No. Kelly got you. [laughs] Kelly got me the day before.
36:00
I apologize. Usually I remember. Yeah. Um, we were just talking off air. So this is a week where a couple musical icons have passed away. Yeah. Both at the age of 82. Hmm.
36:09
Sly Stone a few days ago, um, who I just, I, I consider Sly and the Family Stone their own musical genre themselves. I don't think they sounded like anybody else. And then Brian Wilson passes away.
36:23
Brian Wilson of the, of The Beach Boys passes away, uh, at the age of 82, who you loved. And Brian Wilson, you know, responsible for hits like Surfin' USA, um, I Get Around, obviously big hits like that.
36:38
Uh, Wouldn't It Be Nice. I mean, Good Vibrations, it goes on and on. All those iconic Beach Boys, uh, sounds.
36:44
And while the two of those guys were nothing alike musically, they were similar in the fact that n- nothing sounded like The Beach Boys either. Yeah. They were their own thing. I, I'm a music guy in general. Yeah.
36:54
Just I love music, so, um, and Sly and the Family Stone. Oh my God, Sly was, uh, uh, everyday people. Yeah. That's all I could tell you.
37:00
Like, you know, there was a version of, Kermit the Frog did a version with somebody. [laughs] And it was so good, though. Yeah. Dolly Parton. Dolly Parton and Kermit, the Muppets was a big show back- Mm-hmm...
37:10
you know, years ago. And, uh, they, they, they did a, a version.
37:13
But Brian, it's funny, I was just talking to, uh, I have a buddy of mine that's on Twitter, um, Margin Call, and, and, and we were just talking a couple weeks ago about Brian. Didn't know he was gonna die. Yeah.
37:23
Just talking about the musical genius of Brian Wilson. So to see it so sudden, and it didn't come out... Listen, the guy's 82. W- uh, you know, you wanna say, "Oh my God, where, where do I sign up to live to 82?"
37:35
But then when you get to that age- Of course... you, you, you know, it's, it's comes as a shock and sudden, and you don't want it to happen anyway.
37:41
But, um, you know, he, he, uh, my buddy said he, he was a mu- he was a musician's kind of musician like Mark Knopfler or someone that's at, you know, uh, in the industry, there's certain bands that guys were like so, uh, in the beginning of their careers as kids, I'm not talking about, you know, as, as 10, 11, 12, 13 years old, you just knew they were gonna make it in the music industry.
38:05
Yeah. And, um, Brian was one of them. If you ask any musician, uh, i- i- if you isolate all the instruments, it doesn't make sense until they come together, and that's what The Beach Boys did.
38:15
Even though I wasn't, I didn't have The Beach Boys on play, but I would listen to one of the songs if it was on. Yeah. You know? I was not necessarily a Beach Boys fan either. In fact, I was, I was not a fan.
38:23
But, like, I appreciate any, any musical artist that is s- their sound is so different. Yeah. Like, 'cause most folks, there's some derivative nature to it, right? It's a copycat to some degree. Yes.
38:35
But you can't really detect it in either Sly and the Family Stone or The Beach Boys music. It's amazing. Yeah.
38:41
There's a documentary called Promised Road that was out, um, uh, it's been out for a l- a while, but uh, just, just to give you an idea, and I'm sure they'll come out with something now on his life, but- Yeah...
38:50
um, yeah, you know, um, as we get older, we go to more, uh, funerals than weddings. And s- so sad. And Sly, uh, has a documen- had a documentary, I think Questlove had a documentary about Sly- Oh, wow...
39:00
so I wanna see that as well. Yeah. Or at least he was part of the documentary. I wanna see that. All right, now can we get into some of these idiots that I'm mad about? Yes. Okay. Golf Channel betting analyst. Oh, boy.
39:10
Do you know what this idiot said? Hmm. "Sometimes in golf, just like roulette, the trend is your friend." Oh, boy. So in other words, you're telling me because 10 blacks in a row came out- That's right...
39:21
or 10 reds in a row came out, the trend is your friend. This is the people that we ha- by the way, he is their gambling expert. He's not just an analyst, he's their gambling expert go-to guy. Do you have a name?
39:32
No, I'm not gonna bury him. Okay. You know, I'm, I'm not, I'm not really, uh, I really don't do that. I don't really put, throw people under the bus. Yeah. People know who he is.
39:39
Um, I, I, I don't think it's a nice look when you go after individuals and people. Do you know what I appreciate about the Tennis Channel when they delve into gambling? No.
39:47
That they don't try to deep dive it, that they, you know, Brett Haber- Ah... Brett Haber is their, is their lead- Okay...
39:54
uh, lead play-by-play guy, and Brett is smart enough to know a money line conversion to a percentage, and he leaves it at that.
40:02
And I think for the Tennis Channel audience, that's a beautiful thing to have that much knowledge.
40:07
Oh, minus 370 after this person wins the first set means that she or he is a blank percentage pro- uh, probability to win the rest of the match, and they just sort of leave it at that. Right.
40:17
They don't really, e- even if they have, like, a sponsor like a FanDuel or whomever. Sure. But the Golf Channel tries to go a little deeper, huh? It's not only that.
40:25
There's many different, you know, it just so happens that that's the, the, the latest one that I've seen. Someone sent it to me. I didn't see it actually, but they sent it to me.
40:32
I was like, wow, I gotta listen to it again to hear if I, if I heard right. Um, speaking of which, you know, some people have sent me some things.
40:40
Last night, I had it, last night someone sent me something, and it was, excuse me for my, uh, ADD. That's all right. It was something on, like, a, a video on, like, learning, uh, here it is.
40:50
I play this daily roulette strategy daily. So I watched the video, and it was a guy playing, by the way, 73,000 views. A guy playing what, like, the bubble craps and then the digital roulette. Mm-hmm.
41:01
This, this is ac- actually, there's a wheel. You sit at the wheel, and it's like closet gambling. No one knows what you're doing. You have your own machine, you have your own, you can put the numbers.
41:09
He's showing people a system, how you can play the streets. The street means, like, the three number streets, and, um, I think you get 11 to one on a street, which is, uh, obviously, it's terrible odds.
41:19
Roulette's terrible. It's 5.26 if you're betting straight up, worse on other ar- other bets.
41:24
But the instructional, let's call them instructional, 'cause that's what they wanna be called, but they're, they're terrible instructional videos that are out there on different gambling things on YouTube.
41:35
I, um, of course there's little shorts on, on their Instagram and TikTok and stuff, but they're so bad. 73,000 people, and you know what? There's 100 and f- 164 responses, and guess what? They're all good.
41:51
"Ooh, thank you, I love this double up system." Mm-hmm. So- Yeah... the guy was doubling up if he lost those streets, tripling up. I, I, I, I just can't believe people would say, "Oh, I..." 'Cause they just don't know.
42:01
But you, you seized- And we're too close to the sun, like you said...
42:03
you seized on the, on the most important part, which is you expect, 'cause we're too close to the sun, we would expect for someone to be in the comments being like, "Ah, this is ridiculous." Nobody. But nobody is.
42:13
Nobody. It's like a, an army of, of, "Wow, that's awesome."
42:17
There, there was a slot channel someone sent me, and by the way, I, I guess people love to watch high limit slots, and I guess the thrill of it is someone actually betting. So a guy was betting $900 a spin.
42:27
I wa- I watched him yesterday. $900 a spin, and, and he's a, supposedly a really nice guy. I'm not, I'm not throwing him under the bus 'cause supposedly he's got, by the way, makes millions and millions of dollars.
42:38
And it's not Vegas Matt, by the way, who I, who I'm, who I like Um, but this guy spent $900 a spin, and you're watching him, and he hit for 150,000. And everyone at home is like, "Wow, oh my God, this is how..." Like, I,
42:54
I, it, I guess the reason they, that people don't realize is that he gets paid to do that. Mm-hmm. And not only that, he gets walk-in money, he gets front money, back cash money, and he may even get an appearance fee.
43:05
I hear some of these slot guys, and good for them, that's fine, but I like someone to be transparent, like Vegas Matt, um, that come out and said, "I lost 360,000 playing last year.
43:16
So I, I did lose to show you guys these videos." But he may make milli- I'm, I'm sure he makes millions, you know, with his, his, uh, merchandise, his walk-in money, his deals and, you know what I mean?
43:27
That little point you made there, there, when I first started a podcast, when Betting Dorks started- Right...
43:31
about, well, even before Betting Dorks, when I was just decided I'm gonna do a sports betting podcast, the whole innovation was like, and I'm gonna tell people when I lose. Whoa.
43:39
Like, what a mind-blowing thing was at that time. Yeah, that's not gonna sell. Right? I mean, you know- Yeah... but imagine, like, that's- Right... 'cause that's what the industry is, right? Sure.
43:46
Listen, all these sportsbooks, like, the same-game parlays, there is something about the wiring of the human brain- Yeah... that bet little to win massive amounts of money. If you just tell those stories- Yeah...
43:58
people become mesmerized. Yes. Right? And they know this. Yes, yes. And they know, and that's not the way to be a long-term winner- Sure... obviously. Sure. But that's, that's the hook.
44:06
You know, I, I, so I've actually resorted to giving in a little bit. By the way, the last one, someone, again, someone sent me some one thing. It was a, a girl scratching $50 lottery tickets.
44:16
She bought $1,000 in lottery tickets- That's my boy... and she lost, she got back 850, and she got a million views, just scratching lo- $50 lottery tickets. I mean, it's sick.
44:24
But I've, I come to the re- to the conclusion of you know what? You're all gonna bet your parlays anyway. Yeah.
44:29
I have no problem with someone betting $100 each game straight and betting a $10 five-team or have some fun with that. But the $100, you know, each, each individual bet of that parlay means more than anything.
44:40
I would want rather not you have not, you know, not, don't bet the parlay, but I know they're gonna do it anyway. Bill Krackenberger, @billcrackman with a K on Twitter.
44:47
Wise Cracks the name of the podcast, which he does with John Orlando. Coming back unscripted on the Numbers Game with VSiN, the sports betting network.
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