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Jun 13, 2024
A Numbers Game | June 13, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | June 13, 2024 | Hour 1
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44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, visa.com Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander.
0:19
It's Kelly Bidlin live from Bar Canada at the D, lovely downtown Las Vegas. Does it get lovelier than downtown Las Vegas, Kelly? I'm curious. No, nowhere. I don't think it does. Uh, Jake Hahn on the NHL
0:31
playoffs, we should say, but the Stanley Cup Finals specifically coming up [laughs] with the Panthers trying to take a three to nothing lead over the Edmonton Oilers tonight.
0:39
A series back in, or goes to Edmonton, I should say, for the first time today. Uh, Paul Carr will join us. The Euro Cup is upon us. Let's do an intense, uh, Euro Cup analysis with Paul Carr.
0:51
And of course, it is Thursday. That means Unscripted with the crack man Bill Krackenberger. Of course, Kelly, uh, we will update the, uh, MLB wins in June, also that market as well.
1:01
Uh, we must begin with a quick update at the US Open at Pinehurst, where, uh,
1:07
my only bets, Kelly, my only pre-flop bets here on everything ended up being, as I mentioned yesterday, Scheffler top five at minus 135, top 10 minus 235.
1:16
I did out an- I did add an out right on him at plus 305, and I also took, b- based on your answer of my question yesterday, who is the most Andy North type golfer on tour?
1:28
And while it's not a exact comp, I liked your answer of Brooks Koepka. I ended up taking him at 22 and a half to one. The early, early leaderboard has Koepka and Matthew Pavon both at two under, uh, Koepka through eight.
1:41
You said, uh, Pavon's was a, uh, fake two under with an eagle. [laughs] I believe it still counts. It's counts. I'm checking with golf rules. Kind of joking, but yes- Yeah... eagle on the par five.
1:49
He, like, just made it, so you know. Yeah, so there. See if he takes a step back. You're also looking good if you bet, uh, Tim Widing or Fredrik Djurerup, uh, good on you, 'cause they're one under. There you go.
1:59
Early at the USA. There's a whole bunch of folks at one under. Yeah. Sergio's one under, Morikawa one under through seven. Tony Finau one under through seven.
2:07
Ludvig Aberg one under through seven, so hella early, I believe they say, on the golf tour. Yes, big first names there. I did make a couple first round bets in case anybody's interested.
2:17
One of these guys has started already. But I did do... We talked about those MGM offerings of, like, the top five, top 10 first rounds of paying full. Mm-hmm. So that's how I decided to attack first round today.
2:26
I bet, uh, Xander and Morikawa both top five, uh, both around five to one, um, for first round today. And then Sepp Straka, took a little bit of a longer shot with him.
2:36
He's co- he t- him and Xander both tee off- haven't teed off yet. Uh, if you'd wanna get involved, uh, top five on Sepp Straka is 11 to one. Okay. Uh, NBA, RIP. Pour out a 40 for your Mavericks tickets, man. Yeah.
2:49
I apologize for that. See ya. Three to nothing, Celtics best of seven NBA finals, plural. Celtics now up three games to none with their win last night over the Mavericks in Dallas. Katie bar the door, 106-99.
3:04
Celtics win it as three point dogs. They win it outright plus 124 on the money line.
3:08
Uh, 0 and 155, the NBA historical record of teams that fall three to nothing in a best of seven postseason series, and that is why we say Katie bar the door for the whole thing.
3:21
Uh, Dallas opened up nine to two, uh, 149 into the ballgame yesterday. They led by as many as 13 in the first quarter. Did you, at that point, have the thought in your head, "We're all so stupid.
3:34
Of course the Mavericks are gonna show up, and of course this is gonna be a series, and we're gonna come in tomorrow and this is gonna be a totally different theme"? Not really. I did for a second [laughs]
3:44
if I'm being honest. No, no, like, and that's, but, like, I'd love to be honest, but the- Yeah... when they caught back up, I was like, "Oh, here we go. That's where I am."
3:52
Yeah, then the Celtics had an 11 to nothing run. They cut the 25 to 12 lead to 25 to 23. M- Mavericks only led by one after the first quarter. Dude, brutal first quarter beat. Brutality. What, what was it?
4:02
Like, 25 to 13, is that? 25 to 12. 25 to 12, you're up in the first quarter, and the final two plays of the first quarter- Yes...
4:12
Luka jackin' up shots, falling to the ground, complaining to the refs, and it's, uh, easy Boston basket the other way, five quick points. Sorry if you had Mavericks first quarter.
4:21
I'm gonna get to Luka because I see, uh, Stephen A and Win Horace and all these guys are on this, the bandwagon that we, we first mentioned weeks ago about Luka. Um, second quarter, so it's 31-30, Mavericks after one.
4:34
First lead for the Celtics was 32 to 31. That was over two minutes into the second quarter. It was a w- high-paced scoring first quarter. Second quarter grinded to a halt. Dallas led by one at the half, 51 to 50.
4:46
It was actually a pretty entertaining first half. Kyrie had 20. Mm-hmm. Luka had 17. Tatum had 20 for the Celtics, and then the third quarter began. Yeah. And that was all she wrote. Very Boston second half.
4:58
[laughs] Very. Celtics went up 66 to 59 after an eight to nothing run, then 71 to 61 for the biggest lead, then another seven to nothing run a little later to go up 13. Now they're up 13. Then they led by 15 after three.
5:11
That was still their biggest lead, and then they start the fourth quarter with two threes to go up 21, 91 to 70. So in other words, a 41 to 19 run to start the half, and you're like, "Okay, well, this is done."
5:24
Well, not quite yet because then the Mavs did that thing where they, like, kinda act like they're gonna come back. This was, like, a really big act of coming back. They almost did this.
5:32
Uh, a 12 to nothing Mavs run to cut it to 91 to 82, and then all told it was a 20 to 2, pardon me, uh, a, a 20 to 2 run to make it 93 to 90 with over six minutes left. This was unbelievable.
5:45
With 5:25 to go, same score, the Mavericks ha- had, you know, it was a one possession game. Jason Kidd calls a timeout, and Luka becomes irate with Jason Kidd for calling the timeout. Yeah. Did you see that?
5:58
Yeah, yeah, yeah. He's like- He's ready to go down the other way... almost rocking Jason Kidd for calling the timeout. Uh, Dallas has three possessions to cut into the lead further. They go 0 for three.
6:06
In the meantime, Luka gets his fifth foul with 4:38 left. Then his sixth- Eh... and final with 4:12 left on a blocking foul, which withstood review.
6:16
By the way, when the foul was called, Luka then looks at his sidelines and said, "You better bleeping review this." Yeah.
6:23
I think that was some carryover frustration from he wanted the challenge on the fifth foul, which, which, I, was a little bit more 50/50. He fouls out 27, 6 and 6.
6:33
The only six that mattered was another six, though, with six fouls. So the Mavericks, if they're gonna do this, they're gonna have to do it without Luka. Kyrie hits a jumper. Now it's a 22 to two run. 93-92 Celtics.
6:44
Did you think at this point that it was going to happen? I mean, Luka off the court... I mean, I was hoping and praying. I was hoping and praying. Here's where I was like, "I have no faith in this happening."
6:53
[laughs] Like, I just didn't. I'm like, Luka's off the court, man. I never really felt like this was gonna happen at this point. [laughs] I mean, you know, it's, Luka's off the court.
7:01
You've seen what the, him and Kyrie have done the whole game.
7:03
And meanwhile, you check the box score and you're like, "Oh, I've gotten, I've got 30, like, 30 points out of the rest of the Dallas Mavericks," and that's who you have to rely on right now.
7:12
Brown on a follow-up to make it 95-92. Then an offensive foul on PJ on a screen on Jrue. Good call. White with a three, 98-92. And at that point it was just, you know, they were never gonna kick.
7:22
Kyrie was fouled by Jrue. He hit two free throws. 98-94, 2:32 to go. But a Tatum jam back up six. Lively follow jam to cut it to four. Tatum did miss a three, and then Lively all alone.
7:32
I don't know how, who, how they lost him. Yeah. Kyrie hit him with a dunk. It was 198, but then the dagger, as Steve Buckhantz used to say in DC.
7:40
A Brown jumper, 102-98 with under a minute left, then a, a missed three by PJ. Celtics turnover. That Al Horford strange turnover- [laughs] He had a couple...
7:49
where I, by the way, I don't know if he was out of bounds or, like, I don't know if he was out of bounds or if the ball was out of bounds. I never saw that he was, and they're like, "Mavericks ball."
7:56
Um, Kyrie wild three where he was fading to the right, no good. White fouled on the, uh, on the, uh, rebound. Katie bar the door. White hits both. They're up six at that point. Anyway, 104-98.
8:07
They end up winning it 106 to 99. Um, again, 100... By the way, short changes. 156 and 0 all time- Mm... uh, for teams up three to nothing in best of seven series in the NBA. Tatum ends up with 31, Brown 38 and eight.
8:22
Brown is the short shot to win MVP. By the way, thank you, uh, I, I was told yesterday on Twitter that it is a Nevada gaming rule that once the series starts- Really?... they can't put up MVP anymore.
8:32
So thank you, Nevada gaming, you saved me money, as I said they would. I, by the way, I n- now that I even know that it's a gaming rule, what's the justification for it? Yeah, I know. What's the reasoning?
8:43
How dumb is that? I mean, I would, I would l- I would like to say, oh, that feels like something we should remember from years past, but- I don't remember that...
8:50
but, like, I don't remember it because of what you just said. The, the- Yeah... how does that make any sense? It doesn't. Kyrie 35 in defeat. So here's my, again, my thing with Luka.
8:57
Now we, we said this weeks ago on this show, I did, which is he is, as great as he is, he's an un-aesthetically pleasing, that was my phrase, an un-aesthetically pleasing player to watch. Mm-hmm.
9:08
This ain't the Warriors, right? Mm. This ain't Jokic with the passes.
9:11
This is a guy who plods and, yes, he's wonderful offensively, but he's un-aesthetically pleasing, un-aesthetically pleasing to, uh, to watch play basketball.
9:19
And then on top of that, you add the fact that he's terrible on D. Let's just throw that in there, too. But he whines about everything. And now you... And, and we said this, that he's always whining at the refs.
9:32
And a Rick Barry, if you want to go back generations, Rick Barry used to complain every single time he was called for a foul. Yeah. Like, it was just a thing with him.
9:40
Luka has gotten to the point that n- now he's, he's at the refs, he's at his coach, he's all these things. And now you finally see, when I walked in here, Windhorst and Stephen A. finally killing Luka for this.
9:50
Like, ESPN has finally got on the bandwagon for this. He's gotta change if they're going to get to the mountaintop on this.
9:58
Yeah, I mean, I think this was the, uh, this was the perfect example game of that l- I mean, you're, y- you acting like that throughout the game literally cost you the game.
10:08
I mean, I mean, you can look at, you can point the finger at the rest of the guys. I mean, you only got 37 points from people go- not named Luka or Kyrie. Like, I understand that.
10:16
But I, I mean, we talk about the end of the first quarter. A- and there was a lot, there were several. I'm not...
10:21
Like, with, with a player like him, like LeBron James, like James Harden, like Giannis, like there, yes, there's a lot of fouls that happen during the course of a game that don't get called.
10:30
But you can't let it affect you, um, like it, like it does for him. Uh, and it's- Doris Burke pointed out one time he's just lollygagging. He didn't go back on D. You know? Yep. That happens a lot with him.
10:42
So, so game four, and I hesitate to even bring this up [laughs] but it's tomorrow night. Um, potential sweep game.
10:49
Celtics were a slight favorite last night, now the Mavericks are in most places, again, by a point, point half. Yeah, it's like a point. Yeah. Do you want any part of this at all? 211 and a half now.
10:58
The, the total has t- ch- ticked down a bit, not nearly as much as the final scores would have you tick it down. Yeah. That, that is interesting, actually. Sweep or gentleman's sweep, right?
11:09
These, these are the only options here. Ch- uh, yeah, absolutely. I think it's probably just done in four.
11:13
I, I, I mean, just like la- yesterday when we talked about it [laughs] I, there's no reason I'd be going to ba- back to Dallas right now. I just don't know what you've seen.
11:19
They tried e- they've tried almost everything at this point. They finally put Hardaway out there. No Kleber. Yeah. That didn't matter. Yeah. That didn't help at all. The one thing I wanted to bring up real quick, though,
11:28
how f- like, in another universe, Luka doesn't foul out, they win that game last night. Oh my gosh, we're sitting here crushing Boston for doing the same Boston thing- 100%... over and over again. [laughs] 100%.
11:41
100% we are. And that's why the NBA playoffs is squirrely. But w- game four is when team is up three to nothing, the squirreliest of all squirrely. I want no part of it. We'll come back.
11:49
Jake Hohn on the Stanley Cup Final next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Start betting smarter with a VSiN Pro subscription. Right now you can upgrade to a VSiN Pro annual subscription for just $199.
12:07
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12:12
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12:19
And here's the big news, our NFL betting guide coming out later this month. And it's June what now? 12th? No, 13th That's within 17 days, Kelly. I hope you know that. Mm-hmm. Um, that's the big thing that's happening.
12:32
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12:40
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12:53
It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Billings. You're totally right about the, uh... And, and I mentioned this yesterday, how we would have completely changed our narrative on everything had the Celtics won.
13:01
Particularly, as you say, they, they went scoreless for two-thirds of the fourth quarter. It's wild, man. It's wild. Eight minutes, right, where they didn't score a point.
13:11
By the way, here's Luka's quote after the game, talking about, uh, talking about the referees. He says, uh, "We couldn't play physical. I don't know. I don't want to say nothing." That's my Luka accent, by the way.
13:24
He- And when we have him talking about it, if you'd like to hear from him. Oh, do we? Yes, we do. Oh, I didn't know. You should probably mention. We absolutely do. I had no idea. Well, let's hear from Luka himself. Yeah.
13:31
Does he say something here? Uh, yeah, you see, yeah, he talks about the, uh, reffing at the end. Well, it's only one more line. He fouled a guy. Do we need to hear him? That's fine. No, go ahead.
13:37
Finish in your- He just says, "You know, six fouls in the NBA finals. Basically, I'm like this. Come on, man. Be better than that." So he's, like, completely blaming the refs for this. Yeah.
13:46
Um, yeah, that's, that doesn't do any good. By the way, Steve Fezzik has texted in. He objects to my use of Katie bar the door. He says, "I believe this is a Southern American expression." I said, "Yes, Steve.
13:57
I grew up in DC. We're kind of below the Mason-Dixon line, if not Southern Southern." Basically means trouble lies ahead.
14:03
I love the expression, but I think it's more applicable early in the game rather than when the game is clearly lost. He adds, "I'm such a pain in the blank." That last part is certainly true, Steven, I must tell you.
14:15
No, uh, I appreciate- Yeah...
14:17
the love on the thing, but I can only tell you that, yes, while you are correct that the origins have to do with, like, securing a door because there's trouble ahead, oh no, secure the door, that the way it was used is when it's over.
14:29
Just lock the door. It's done. Why was that always Katie's job? Why couldn't it have been somebody else's job? [laughs] Why did she always have to bar the door, you know? I, that's what I don't understand.
14:36
It's K-A-T-Y, so I'm not really sure what that's about. We, uh, this course, man. This course. Morikawa just hit one out of the bunker. Jake's not gonna be happy to hear this either 'cause we're both on him.
14:46
He just hit one out of the bu- out of a sand trap that, Gil, you would, you would be jumping up and down if you hit this good of a shot. I'm sure I would.
14:54
And it just cruises by the cup and it keeps cruising for about 45 more feet right off the green, and then has to chip back up, finishes with a double bogey. He's back to, uh, what over it? Let's bring in Jake Hahn.
15:07
The aforementioned Jake Hahn, who, uh, joins us to talk hockey, but is also a big, uh, of course, uh, golf guy, 'cause he's got bets and he's got Collin Morikawa.
15:15
He joins us courtesy of the Progressive gu- uh, guest line right now. How you doing, Jake? Uh, I'm doing great, guys. I was doing much better about 10 minutes ago before that Morikawa, uh, double bogey.
15:25
Like you said, things were, things were going really well for me this morning. My, my two outright bets, Morikawa and Brooks Koepka, both at the top of the board playing together.
15:32
Vibing, uh, grass court tennis bets were coming in this morning, uh, as well, Gil, which I know you'll absolutely love, and we've got a, a Stanley Cup playoff game breakdown tonight.
15:41
So yeah, a little better 10 minutes ago I, I could have done without that, uh, that Morikawa double bogey that Kelly broke down.
15:46
Yeah, Koepka and Pavon still on top, uh, two under for the, uh, early part of the US Open at Pinehurst. Uh, how has your grass court tennis been? Mine, not so good to start. Yeah, pretty good. I, I did end play...
15:59
It was quote shocky this morning, I will say. A couple of, uh, uh, favorites parlayed together. Matteo Berrettini, uh, clo- just closed it out for me, uh, to hit a pretty nice bet. So that's good.
16:08
It's nice when you can pay for the golf cart.
16:10
Uh, as, as, uh, Kelly probably knows this as someone that bets golf heavy, if you can pay for the golf cart on, like, a Wednesday night, a Thursday morning, you feel pretty good.
16:17
You kind of feel like you're free rolling the thing, and, uh, maybe, maybe even leave some room for a, for a live ad later. We'll see how this...
16:23
I'd love to see how the course is playing sometimes in the morning, then look at some, uh, some afternoon tee time, see if maybe there's a, there's a guy I want to jump on. Yeah, that's my problem. Dogs aren't barking.
16:32
Dogs are not barking on the tennis tour right now. Okay. Um, and then the golfer, you said Koepka, who are you rooting for? Who, who makes you the most money here?
16:39
Uh, well, technically it would be Morikawa, but I, I am on Brooks as well. It just, once it got to a, a number, I, I got, I got in at 26 to one. I did see some, some people jump in at some 30s around there as well.
16:50
But once I saw, uh, the 26 beside Brooks's name, I thought, you know, it was kind of between him and Bryson for me, and I, I still do really like Bryson. He can bomb it down this course.
16:59
This isn't necessarily your, your longest US Open track, uh, but I still trust Bryson around the greens and to kind of manage this golf course as well.
17:07
So he's someone that's teeing off in the afternoon that I am still looking, uh, to possibly get behind. Watching how this course is playing so far, I, I still do like Bryson and, uh, that's an ad I'd be willing to make.
17:17
Feel like the, uh, the sentiment about Bryson DeChambeau just as a personal thing has changed completely, dramatically. No, I've do- I've done, I've done at least two 180s on, uh, during his career.
17:27
Like, I loved him when he was coming up, and then he, like, became the- [laughs]... you know, the nerd scientist, like, trying out everything, thinking he was smarter than everybody and, you know.
17:35
He, like, put on a ton of muscle. That got old really quick. And then he went to live, kind of disappeared. Now he's back, and he's been awesome to watch, I think, recently. And he's, and he's cuddly.
17:44
He's throwing golf balls to kids, and then if they don't get to the right person, he gets mad about it. He's doing that. Yeah. He's moving the, uh...
17:48
Remember the, uh, what was it, like, the directional pull out of the Masters where he just, like, ripped out of the ground and moved it out of the way 'cause it was in his way? Wow. That was great. All right, Jake.
17:56
We're back in Ed- We- we're at Edmonton for the first time. Well, we're back in Edmonton, uh, playoff wide tonight. So game three, first time going to Alberta for this Stanley Cup Final.
18:07
Edmonton down two games to nothing. Uh, they've only gotten one, one puck by Sergei Bobrovsky. But they are minus 138 favorites tonight, uh, against the Florida Panthers. What changes here?
18:22
Well, obviously a change is going back to Edmonton. They get the home crowd. You can argue maybe you get an extra call on home ice sometimes as well. That could sway the officials.
18:30
I don't know if that's necessarily gonna be the case, but some people do believe that. And look, like you mentioned, Gil, this has really come down to Sergei Bobrovsky. Florida's, Florida played an excellent game two.
18:39
The game two that I, I watched Florida play was the game I expected Florida to play all series long. They didn't really get to it in game one.
18:45
I, I thought they actually had a lot of trouble with Edmonton and had to rely on Bobrovsky too much. But game two was kind of the, the perfect formula.
18:51
Edmonton had six shots on goal total from their forwards in game two, and, uh, they came from McDavid, Draisaitl, and Hyman.
18:59
So no shots from anybody outside the big boys up front for Edmonton, which just speaks to what Florida can do defensively.
19:05
And you mentioned it, only one goal given up by Bobrovsky so far, and it was a two-on-one, which was his first shot of the game in game two.
19:12
He hadn't faced any rubber all game, and then all of a sudden has to face a two-on-one. It squeaks through the five-hole. Other than that, he's been perfect.
19:18
So when Bob gets in one of these zones, it's, it's tough to go against him, guys. And E- Edmonton's getting a lot of respect, I, I think, in the market for this game.
19:26
Florida actually closed around minus 125, uh, in game two, and we're seeing Edmonton hovering around minus 135, minus 140 even in some places as well, which is more respect than I thought they would get in the home games in this series, I'll say that.
19:40
We used to have a, in DC growing up, we used to have a t- a sports talk radio host by the name of Ken Beatrice. He used to be on WMAL radio, and the Caps were terrible in their early years, just awful.
19:49
But he used to scream on the radio every night. He used to be like, "Shoot the puck."
19:53
He was like, "You'd be amazed at how many wacky things happen when you just shoot the puck off the boar- off a rebound as, coming off the boards," whatever. Um, Edmonton was seven shots on goal in the first two periods.
20:04
I mean, that's the first thing, right? Just, like, assert pressure.
20:09
I, I think what Florida is doing, too, i- is really clogging up that middle of the ice, uh, when Edmonton is in the offensive zone and forcing them to shoot fro- from the blue line, right?
20:18
And if you look at the shots on goal that Edmonton had in the last game, almost all of them coming from defensemen.
20:22
I mean, Bouchard is ripping shots really in both games, and we expect him to have a lot of shot attempts as a guy that basically plays half the game.
20:29
Uh, but you can't have Brett Kulak with five shots and your entire forward group with only six shots. So Edmonton has to find a way to get into that home plate area.
20:38
It's fine taking shots from the back end, and like, and like you mentioned, Gil, you can get a bounce, you can get lucky, you can get a rebound from Bob, or it can bounce off a leg.
20:45
But at some point they gotta get into that high danger area- Yeah... and that's something Edmonton really struggled to do in game two. So what's the bet here?
20:51
Someone landing on this right now, they're like, "Okay, uh, I'm, I'm showing up for hockey. What's my bet here either in this game- Yeah... or the rest of this series?"
20:58
Yeah, so, so far the series has actually gone according to plan, at least for how I mapped it out in my mind. I thought Florida would win both home games.
21:05
I thought they would be relatively low scoring, and that's what we've gotten so far, and I felt like Florida would win one of the games in Edmonton. So is that game three? Is that game four?
21:14
Based on the odds that I'm seeing right now, guys, I just can't go against the Florida Panthers right now. Getting plus money with them really in any spot, I just have to continue to roll with them.
21:22
I, I fully expect Edmonton to come out and throw the kitchen sink tonight. They have no other choice.
21:27
I, I do think they are going to shoot a lot more and try to get McDavid activated and their top players, because this is a desperation spot for them. So I fully expect that.
21:35
It's just when Bobrovsky's dialed in this way and I'm getting the Panthers at, at plus money, they know what's on the line here, a chance to take a stranglehold in a Stanley Cup Final and get that much closer to, to hoisting the cup.
21:45
So I'm just gonna continue to roll with the Panthers here and, and take the plus money.
21:49
If you believe in the Panthers and you, you see the series price is north of $4, but Bobrovsky is minus 200 on Conn Smythe, do you play it that way? Is there anyone else who's gonna win this besides him if they win?
21:59
Yeah, no, last time I w- yeah, last time I was on with you, Gil, you mentioned Bob, and he was at a better number at that point. I, I think at this point you just gotta roll with Bob, because- Yeah...
22:07
he's playing that well. Um, I made the case for Sasha Barkov, and I, I still think he's an excellent player that the media will love if he has some big moments. But, uh, this is a Bob series so far.
22:16
One goal, uh, through two games, and he looks absolutely locked in. So it feels like if the Panthers do, uh, win this Stanley Cup, the, the Conn Smythe is gonna go to Bob. All right, J. Khan, everybody.
22:26
Uh, by the way, you can follow Jake, JKhan4 on Twitter, co-host of The Point and the Fantasy Hockey Show on Sirius XM NHL. Thank you, sir. Enjoy game three.
22:36
Yeah, you guys as well, and enjoy the, uh, enjoy the golf this weekend. Yeah. Let's, let's hit a winner. Good luck with that as well. We'll come back. Paul Carr, Euro Cup, summer in front of us.
22:45
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22:57
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23:09
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23:20
Warning: this product contains nicotine. Nicotine is an addictive chemical. Thank you, Ryan. It's Gil Alexander, Kelly Huidlin, numbers game live from Bar Canada at the D, Bar Canada, The Barrage.
23:32
Uh, I just wanna, before we get to Paul Carr and talk Euro Cup, I just, uh, did the, uh, simple division on this as well.
23:36
Obviously, uh, with the Panthers up two to nothing in the Stanley Cup Final and the Celtics up three to nothing in the NBA Finals, uh, there is still, there's still time for Edmonton and Dallas to change these numbers.
23:49
But to this moment, this is the average number of wins in both the Stanley Cup playoffs and the NBA playoffs by the losing team in a best of seven series.
24:02
Average number of wins this postseason in both the NHL and the NBA for the losing teams in best of seven series. Got it. In the NHL, it is 1.47 wins for the losing team on average thus far. 1.47.
24:18
So in other words, they're not getting beat four to one, but it's getting damn close is the average. I'm, I'm still way more shocked by this one than the NBA one. In the NBA, it is 1.2 wins. That is how- Horrible.
24:31
Forget the betting part of it. Yeah. But just from a competitive standpoint, how poor these NBA playoffs have been, have been.
24:38
1.2 wins on average, Dallas does, could say something about this, but 1.2 wins on average in these NBA playoffs for the losing team. Well, but wouldn't you say, I mean, both sports, though. NHL. Both sports.
24:50
I mean, you al- I mean, you always talk about the how many games would it take? Yes. Right? That implies- That's right...
24:55
that we think that there, that there is a better ch- I mean, less of a chance that you're gonna see sweeps and stuff like that in the NHL. It speaks to the randomness. Yeah. Yeah.
25:01
That, that's the stats by Lopez one, which says that 80% of favorites get through in the NBA playoffs, but in order for 80% of favorites to manifest in the NHL- Thank you... you would have to play a best of 51.
25:13
Not this year. You know what's the best part about this, is Gil has that, that stat completely memorized. I've heard him say it in my, in my company at least, like, 27 times. Ah.
25:23
And I, I still can't even- You know why... I can't remember. 'Cause you don't pay attention to a word I say. [laughs] Do you know what it is in baseball? I just set you up, Gil.
25:28
[laughs] You know what, you know what it is in baseball? Best of 75. Okay. All right. Is how that would go to get 80% of favorites through. Uh, Paul Carr's a numbers guy. He's the host of the Expected Value podcast.
25:38
He works at True Media Networks, and he joins us courtesy of the Progressive guest line to talk Euro Cup. What's happening, Paul? Gil, soccer never stops.
25:47
We got international tournaments starting this week and next, so we're back in the saddle, ready to roll. What excites you more? Just your standard Premier League season, little Champions League, Euro Cup, or World Cup?
25:58
Rank those for me. I mean, World Cup is number one, period, 'cause it's the biggest, best tournament there is. Although, well, the one in the US I'm super excited about because it's here.
26:06
The format's pretty wonky, and there's too many teams, but that's a different thing. Uh,
26:11
yeah, I think it, for me, it's anything international, just 'cause that's kinda how I came to it first, through the World Cup, and then learned these other, you know, Euros and Copa America and things like that along the way.
26:21
So I, I love the international nature of it. I love the geopolitical undertones, explicit- [laughs]... or historical, whatever they are, especially for Euros, gets, uh, interesting sometimes.
26:30
Uh, yeah, it's all rolled up into one big, fun party of soccer or something. Does the book Soccernomics still hold true? That essentially, what, what was the, what was the conceit of that book?
26:40
Essentially population size is the number one dictator of this? That and money, you know? Yeah. How much leagues have to spend. You know, the, why is the Premier League the best league?
26:51
Because they have the biggest TV contracts. Like, it's not just that simple, but it kind of is. Uh, you know, why do, why do Barcelona and Real Madrid dominate La Liga?
26:59
Because they don't share revenue the same way, and they get a higher percentage of the TV contracts.
27:03
Again, there's more to it, and there's history and all that, but yeah, it ultimately kinda comes down to those things in most countries. All right, the odds to win UEFA Euro 2024 in Germany.
27:12
Uh, France and England are the short shots at plus 350. Germany, Paul Carr's Germany. Yeah. Plus 550. Uh, Portugal seven to one, and Spain eight to one. Everybody else is double digits. We'll get to that.
27:25
Explain the format first to us, if you would. All right. Yeah, this is, and this is slightly different than some tournaments.
27:30
You have your group stage, and then you go to a round of 16, and it's a knockout from there, so straightforward there.
27:35
But there's 24 total teams, so you have six groups of four, so that means you get your top two that advance, but you also get four of the six third place teams advancing.
27:45
And what this means is your odds to advance or odds to qualify will look wonky.
27:51
There's a group or two here where every team is favored to advance, which obviously all four cannot, but because the third place team has a pretty good shot to advance, that's what the numbers will look like.
28:01
So gotta be aware of that. This tournament doesn't really start until you get to the knockout stage, because it's, it'd be a super, super shock if any of the top teams didn't get through. Interesting.
28:12
All right, well, let's talk about those top teams I just mentioned. France and England, plus 350. Germany, plus 550. We already know Paul's on Germany. Uh, we don't- Of course... even have to ask him.
28:20
Uh, Portugal seven to one, Spain eight to one. What- whatever down the board, how, how do you feel about the favorites themselves?
28:26
Uh, I, I'm not real high on England, and, and I say that expecting them to get to at least the quarters or, or if not semis. Uh, they have a lot of attacking talent.
28:35
Their defense is kind of a mess with injuries, and their manager, Gare- Gareth Southgate, is more defensive-minded, which is okay. You tend to be that way in tournaments.
28:44
But, you know, they lost Euros three years ago in the final, in part 'cause he couldn't open up and put the attackers on late and try to get the goal that would've won it.
28:52
Uh, so I'm not convinced that he quite can do that, so I, I kinda fade England there. Uh, I think France is the best team.
28:58
They do have some injuries they're dealing with, and Mbappé is a little bit questionable, at least early, but they build into tournaments on the whole, and they're such a veteran crew, having won a World Cup and finished runner-up, uh, that I think they're the best team.
29:11
So if you threw odds out the window, then France would be the team that I would pick to win this. I have the most confidence in them to go deep here.
29:19
And the case for Germany, I know we're joking about it, but your, your case for Germany is? Well, they're Germany, so I have to pick them. No.
29:25
Um, well, so this tournament, we should say, is in Germany, so you have some- Yes... home field advantage, which can be worth, you know, a third to half a goal per game, you know, on average historically.
29:34
So that's something. Uh, Germany has been in a tough spot the last couple years.
29:38
They went out in the group stage at the World Cup, but they have a new coach, Julian Nagelsmann, who has turned them around as much as you can say that about a national team in a short time.
29:47
They beat France, they beat Netherlands in March, so they're looking pretty good. They have as much talent as you would expect any Germany team to have.
29:53
So it just seems that, you know, they're where they normally are in those top three, four favorites. It's just been a rocky road to get here.
30:00
So that plus you're playing at home means you've got a strong case as just about any team. All right, and if I said, "Okay, Paul, I come to you from the future. A long shot ends up winning this."
30:11
What is the long shot play here? Yeah, I mean, Spain is not long enough of a shot. They're plus 800, which I don't mind that either.
30:17
Their problem is they'll probably play Germany in the quarterfinals, then obviously you still have the semis and finals to get through. Uh, Croatia, you can get around plus 4,000 some places. Kind of a
30:28
almost over-sleeper team in the sense that, look, they made a World Cup final, they made a World Cup semifinals.
30:32
They've never really done it at Euros, getting past the quarters, uh, but that just kinda speaks to the depth of the tournament.
30:38
This, and I, I feel like I say this every tournament, this is probably the last gasp for Luka Modric in the midfield and a couple other guys on Croatia, but they just have the experience, uh, they have the talent, they have the know-how.
30:48
So yeah, if, if some one of those teams over like plus 1000's gonna make a run, that's one of the ones I would look at. All right. Uh, let's talk Golden Boot. We have a history on- Yeah...
30:58
this show with you of, of, uh, of betting Golden Boot, and I remember, um, was it the Euro Cup that we did this in, or was it the World Cup where we bet Romelu Lukaku to win the Golden Boot, and we got Harry Kaned, as I remember?
31:13
It was the tw- I believe that was the 2018 World Cup. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. So [laughs] with that as a backdrop- So-... what are we doing? So we'll try it again, right? Oh, no. No. All right. I do like... We are, right?
31:24
I have a Lukaku plus 1600 ticket. Uh, and again, it's the same logic. It's you need to be on a good team. Yeah.
31:30
Belgium is by far the best team in their group, and the group stage is where you win these Golden Boots very often.
31:35
Uh, it, it's a weak group for Belgium, so, you know, you're hoping he piles up three or four goals at least in the group stage, and they get a couple of games at least out of the knockout stage, which they should.
31:45
Uh, Lukaku takes penalties. He's the clear-cut number one striker for Belgium. Uh, they're also a very, you know, attacking-minded team.
31:53
That's where the strength of their team is, so you would expect them to play into that. So, you know, he's the, what, fourth or fifth favorite or so, so this is not going out on a super limb.
32:00
But yeah, plus 1600, Lukaku's the one I like here. Okay, 'cause he, he, you're saying he is absolutely the PK guy for Be- for Belgium here? As much as anybody can be, yes. Okay. Yeah.
32:11
'Cause I, I remember he didn't, if, if memory serves, don't hold me to this, but he didn't take every one of them last time, years ago. Yeah. So now- Sounds right. Yeah. Yeah. Um- But he should, he should be the guy.
32:22
The q- the only, the question around him is will he play every game? You know, he's 31, I believe. Mm. So, you know, does he take a group game off? It's possible.
32:30
Uh, that would be the downside if Belgium, say, wins their first two games, they have first place virtually locked up, uh, they might try to rotate a little bit.
32:37
So that, that's what the risk that you're running in with Lukaku here. Okay. We'll get to your other bets on the other side, which is teams to advance and, uh, group bets and that kind of thing.
32:46
Um, but last thing on, on Golden Boot, should we not also just make a bet on Harry Kane just to protect ourselves on this? [laughs] Because is it, I mean- Emotional hedge?
32:57
Just, and it just, I just, I have PSD, right, um, from that situation, and he's always taking penalty kicks, and he's just the guy, and so I just wonder if we should do that. It's not terrible.
33:10
You know, Kane and Mbappe are the short shots, but, you know, they're short shots for a reason, so it's not an awful thing.
33:15
Uh, there's also like, you know, Kane and England to win type of markets that you can get a much better price.
33:20
Again, they're not directly correlated, but there's obviously quite a bit of correlation there, so that's another fun way to look at it if you wanna take that angle. All right. Lukaku, 16 to one.
33:29
We're doing it again, Kelly. Let's go. Let's go. All right, uh, Paul's got some more bets, four others in, uh, prop markets. We'll do those on the other side, and we'll update those June MLB win totals as well.
33:39
It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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34:12
By the way, Kelly, earlier I referred to myself as, uh, from the, uh, our Lukaku, uh, Golden Boot bet from 2018. I referred to myself as having PSD. Uh, you may be thinking that I meant PTSD.
34:23
That would be post-traumatic stress disorder. Uh, I wasn't traumatized, but the stress- Right... after the stress, then I had the disorder. The, the- It was just the stress... yes, the post-stress disorder. Yes.
34:33
That's right. That's right. I meant to say PTSD. I also meant to say Sergei Bobrovsky, so I'm 0 for 2 today. Uh, we had tweets at Beat of the Book. Uh, this is, I, I, I meant to do this in the, in the recap.
34:44
First of all, Roger, Roger Jones text, uh, tweets this in. I meant to do this during the recap, but he points it out.
34:50
He goes, "Guys, forgive my ignorance once again, but I was hoping you would explain this play on the recap, but didn't. Late game Mavs inbound, Celtics grab and pull arm. Tells ref, 'Hey, I grabbed him.'"
34:59
Yes, I meant to say this. So the, uh, we often talk on this show about, hey, when you're up three in a late game situation in the NBA, you gotta foul the opponent. Don't let them get a three off.
35:10
It's not available 100% of the time, as we've pointed out as well. There are some situations where the way the play develops, you can't do it, but generally speaking, that ought to be the philosophy.
35:19
Well, in Joe Mazzulla's case, up six- I loved it... he wanted to do the same thing. Yeah. Up six with a little more time left. Same philosophy, just extending the, the philosophy of that a little more.
35:33
And Derrick White desperately tried to yank on Tim Hardaway- Oh, my, yeah. [laughs]... and the ref missed it. It was awful. And so that's why Derrick White was like, "Hey, I fouled him."
35:42
And Hardaway ended up missing anyway. Of course he did, yeah, bricks the shot. Actually, it didn't matter, but that was what it was about.
35:46
Even Hardaway, though, was like, he, you could tell he stopped for a half se- like a half second being like, "All right, well, I just got fouled. Oh, wait, they're not, they didn't blow a whistle.
35:53
I guess I should shoot this."
35:55
That's the, I mean, that's what all the NBA analytics guys, right, they keep, they, their line i- is, "Well, wait till these guys figure out, figure out when you should foul when you're up four."
36:03
And yeah, I was, it was impressive being up six last night. I was like, "Yeah, this is, that's how you do it. Just end the game. End it." I just wish Joe Mazzulla's post-game interactions were less awkward.
36:13
I, I know, man. I, I go, I, I go so back and forth on that guy. He, he has the most unbelievable ability to make any question awkward. Yes, he does.
36:22
He'll, he'll do that stare thing for like three seconds, and you're like, "You have to answer now."
36:26
So I think, I think the one that every- everybody says about him, 'cause y- this is true, I think, both on the court and off the court, and a lot of times good on the court with what he, decisions. He's just stubborn.
36:34
He's a very stubborn guy. Is that what it is? Yeah, like it's- Interesting. Uh, good for him if he wins it, though. Right, yeah, I mean- Good for him...
36:40
it, I think when, when you're making good decisions like some of the ones he did last night, you can be stubborn about it. Paul Corr, uh, Paul Carr, rather, rejoins us [laughs] to talk Euro Cup.
36:48
He's got, uh, four more bets. We won't keep him the whole time here, courtesy of the Progressive guest line. But Paul, I wanted to get to, uh, more prop bets that you made here as, uh, Euro Cup begins tomorrow, correct?
36:59
It does, yeah. We start with Germany and Scotland tomorrow. So we got day soccer, which is, maybe that's my favorite part about the European one especially, is just it's day stuff. Yeah. There's things going on.
37:08
It's great to, you know, keep an eye on. You got a half watch if you got work to do, things like that. All right, how about teams to advance, sides to advance? What do you got here? All right.
37:16
Yeah, so we talked about how, you know, four of six third place teams were advanced, will advance, so these odds maybe look a little weirder than you might be used to.
37:24
So there's very little value when you get up into the, the top teams, because they're just super heavy juice, as they should be. Um, so I'll start in Group A. This, I have Hungary to advance. I got this at minus 130.
37:35
Uh, I'd play this a little bit worse if it's down there. Hungary is kind of a team on the rise. They were at Euros four years ago. Uh, they look pretty solid in qualifying. They're built on a solid defense.
37:45
They have kind of Dominik Szoboszlai, who i- plays for Liverpool in the midfield. He's kind of, you know... These midsize countries have to have, like, one big star usually if they're gonna make a run.
37:54
He's the guy for them.
37:56
So, uh, and, and also, and kind of fading the rest of the group in a way, not Germany, because I think they're good obviously, but Switzerland is kind of just a, you know, average type European team.
38:06
I don't think Scotland's very good at all. So, you know, Hungary beats Scotland, gets a draw against Switzerland. They have four points. That gets you through at least as a third place team.
38:15
So yeah, Hungary minus 130 to get through. That's Group A. You also have a play for a side to advance in Group C, which is England's group, if you will. Group C.
38:23
Dude, this, I have Slovenia here at plus 170, which surprised me that it was, it was that high of a price. Uh, so Slovenia has a couple key pieces here.
38:31
Jan Oblak is a top five, top 10 keeper in the world, has been for several years, so you got a great keeper. You got a, a kid up top named Benjamin Sesko. He's 21 years old. He plays for RB Leipzig.
38:41
Uh, Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester United are all after him. Uh, they may or may not sign him this off-season. So you've got two key pieces there. And again, the rest of the group after England, not that good.
38:53
Denmark is old. I don't think they're... You know, they, remember that big run they made in, you know- Yes... the semis at Euro three years ago? Yeah. Christian Eriksen- Yeah... had the heart issue and all that.
39:02
Well, a lot of that team's still there, which is not necessarily a good thing. Uh, Serbia, we saw at the World Cup, can't defend, even though they have some decent attackers. So I like Slovenia plus 170 to get through.
39:12
They finished level with Denmark on points in qualifying, and just lost on the tiebreaker. So yeah, plus 170 I think is a real nice price on them. And Christian Eriksen doing just fine and dandy now.
39:22
Just what a s- Still there. Yeah, what a scary, scary moment that was- Yeah... on the world stage, uh, back then. Okay, and then Group D, which is France, Austria, Netherlands, and Poland, you have a last place bet here.
39:36
Yeah, so I will admit this price is probably not there anymore. Uh, I have Poland to finish last at minus 125.
39:42
I played this several days ago, and since then, uh, Robert Lewandowski, who's their best player, even though he's on the decline for sure, uh, he is injured, and
39:53
can't forget if he's out for the tournament, but at least for a game or two. So if you can get this at minus 150, I would still play it. Much past that, you're getting into a little bit dicey territory.
40:02
But, uh, yeah, Poland is perennially underachieving. Uh, this is a tough group. France is really good. Uh, I think Austria is good. Netherlands is solid as usual.
40:11
So Poland's just by a fair distance the worst team in the group, and they tend to not do well at these tournaments anyway, and if Lewandowski is out, even more so. So yeah, I play them at minus one, 125 to finish last.
40:23
All right, also in Group D, uh, you have France, Austria on the dual forecast. Is that, uh, soccer for exacta, one, two? Uh, dual forecast means top two in either order. Either, either- In either order, okay. Yeah.
40:35
I believe straight forecast is what you'll see if you want exactly one, two. Okay. And that's, you know. So I have France, Austria dual forecast at plus 270, so either order.
40:44
Uh, the straight I think is plus 450 or something like that. Um, so France is France. I, I don't need to explain that too much. They're as talented as anybody, et cetera, et cetera. Um, Austria though, good team.
40:55
Uh, one of their better players, David Alaba, plays for Real Madrid. He is injured, not in this tournament, but, you know, they've shown they haven't necessarily needed him.
41:02
The last couple years, last year or two, they've beaten Croatia, Italy, Germany. Uh, and just the manager Ralf Rangnick, who knows what he's doing.
41:11
He's implemented a style, a pressing style, that catches a lot of teams off guard. I think it may do that for the Dutch. And they have a lot of, you know, guys from these top clubs.
41:18
Like oh yeah, Marcel Sabitzer from Germany, or from Dortmund. He's on this team. And Arnautović from Inter Milan, he's on this team, and, and guys like that. So real talented team.
41:27
I think they can get through in second place. So yeah, France, Austria dual forecast, plus 270. All right, so Hungary to advance minus 130, Group A. Uh, Group C, Slovenia to advance at plus 170.
41:40
Poland to finish last in Group D at minus 125. France, Austria, the dual forecast in either order, France, Austria or Austria, France, at plus 270, also in Group D. Germany to win the title?
41:51
That, uh, we could have bet on. I wish I remember that. 100%, Six to one. And then Romelu Lukaku for Golden Boot.
41:56
Again, Golden Boot, for those who don't know, an award given to the player who scores the most goals in the competition. Our guy Lukaku at 16 to 1. Paul, thank you as always, man. You bet. Enjoy the soccer. You too.
42:08
Paul Carr, everybody, @paulcarr on Twitter, from, uh, True Media Networks, and of course, the Expected Value podcast.
42:14
Uh, before we get to crack, Kelly, we wanna update the, uh, most wins in the month of June in Major League Baseball, 'cause we have a bet on the Astros here at 25 to 1.
42:22
Yeah, not so much right at the moment, uh, as the Astros lose two of three. Because of Giants magic, Kelly. That's what happened.
42:29
[laughs] Uh, so here, th- th- they're a bunch of, they're bunched in a group of teams at six wins, with varying degrees of losses. Uh, but at the top it is the Yankees at nine and two.
42:40
And as we look, I also, uh, do run differential, one run outcomes, and the games remaining in the month of June. So the Yankees are nine and two. They're plus 27 in run differential.
42:51
Remember, that's the second tiebreaker if you happen to bet it at Circa. Circa, it is fewest losses in the event of a tie, followed by run differential, best run differential.
42:59
At William Hill Caesars, it is a dead heat situation. So right now the Yankees at nine and two are the leaders. Plus 27, we'll do it by Circa tiebreaker. One run games, Kelly, they're O and one. Do you know why?
43:11
Because the Yankees crush teams when they beat them. There are no one run games. The only one run game they played they lost, they're nine and two. How about the Orioles in second? They're nine and three.
43:20
You know how many one run games they've played? Three. They lost them all. Wow. Nine and three, and they're O and three in one run games in the month of June. So- Gotta be better, Mount Castle...
43:30
plus 39 in run differential, so think about that. That is wild. The Orioles, the victims of the one run outcomes, but they do have one more game remaining than do the Yankees, 17 to the Yankees' remaining 16.
43:44
So they b- they both have nine wins, Yankees nine and two, Orioles nine and three. Then it's the Reds and the Mariners tied at eight and three currently. The Diamondbacks are the only team with seven wins.
43:53
They're seven and four after their loss yesterday. And then it is the Phillies, Dodgers, Pirates, Astros, and Nationals all with six wins, but with varying degrees.
44:02
But remember, the problem with the Astros is they started out, as we pointed out, with fewer games on the schedule.
44:09
So they only have 14 games left, which is a great thing if you're winning ballgames, but a sucky thing, I believe is the technical term, when you're not.
44:16
So they are behind the eight ball, and therefore we are behind the eight ball currently. Most wins in the month of June. His name is Bill Krackeburger. He's unscripted.
44:25
He's next on a Numbers Game at Vsain, the sports betting network. [upbeat rock music]
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