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Jun 14, 2024
A Numbers Game | June 14, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | June 14, 2024 | Hour 1
00:00
43:25
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in this morning, we appreciate it. It is Gil Alexander.
0:20
It is Kelly Bidlin, producer number li- uh, producer number nine, live from bar Canada here today. What's happening, man? Oh, nothing much. This was, uh [laughs] - Just work- working on your mic there?
0:30
Yeah [laughs] did you catch that? Yeah. By the way, let me close this up. Did you catch that little, uh- What's, what's happening there with my shirt? Wait, sorry about that, ladies...
0:34
I think there was a party at this table last night- Yeah... so I had to thoroughly wipe it down, uh, this morning. Oh, really? And, and the crew might have as well, so I... Th- I, I'm sure they helped as well.
0:43
But I, I, I wiped down my area and then put the headset down in it, and right as I put it on, I realized the microphone was disgustingly wet. Oh, that is a disgusting way- [laughs]...
0:52
to start this program, ladies and gentlemen. [laughs] On the show today, Chris Fallica, The Bear. He's got thoughts on, uh, Euro Cup 2024.
1:00
He's out in LA, by the way, for, like, the next five or six weeks, talking about international soccer tournaments. So- Nice... nice life for The Bear, Chris Fallica. He'll, he'll join us here in about a half hour.
1:11
He's been busy the past couple weeks. [laughs] Belmont. Listen. Now he's gotta go in a, in studio to do soccer? Whew. Listen, we don't want him to, uh, get out of bed to, uh, earn his money, but, uh- That's-...
1:19
for five weeks I think we're okay. [laughs] Uh, John Lagasa [laughs] will join us to talk, uh, baseball with us, his baseball bets of the day. A little instant offense from Lagasa.
1:28
Matt Lindeman will join us to talk College World Series. Uh, I ran into Matt a few months ago, uh, walking outside. You ran into him as well. Yep. Yeah. I just ran into him a few weeks ago.
1:40
Assistant director of trading at The WIN. He's a big College World Series fan- Mm... so he's got thoughts on that. Uh, our own Stormy Bontoni on the UFL Championship, championship game this week. Let's go.
1:50
Let's go, Brahmas. Birmingham against San Antone. Birmingham's only lost once this year. You know who they lost to? The Brahmas, and that is their championship. Drama in the UFL.
2:01
Stormy will be here to, to, uh, talk about that with us. Also talk to her about hockey. Yeah. 'Cause, uh, that appears to be over as well. Yeah.
2:09
Panthers up three to nothing now after the four to three win over the Oilers yesterday. And Jason Weingarten, everybody's on the show. Um, wanna start obviously with the NBA [laughs]
2:18
'cause, uh, you might have noticed this about, uh, my, uh, sort of thoughts on, on this, uh, series. And, uh,
2:26
I, I keep citing the stat about these NBA playoffs where the losing team in these best of seven series in the entire breadth of the, uh, NBA playoffs, Eastern and Western Conference, all of it, has won an average of 1.2 games.
2:37
That's how uncompetitive this NBA playoffs has been. And as a matter of fact, when you distill it to the two conference tournaments and the NBA finals, if the Celtics win tonight, Kelly, we could have a 12 to one
2:52
situation, historical situation, in conference finals and the NBA finals. It would be 4-0, 4-1, 'cause remember the- Yeah...
2:59
Timberwolves got one game off the Mavericks, and if the Celtics close it out tonight, it would be 4-0. And so 12 to one, that would be historical. That has never happened before.
3:06
So, um, that's the kind of thing we're talking about, and quite frankly, and I know we're a betting network and I know we're a betting show, but if there was ever a time in the sports betting calendar where I would not recommend you betting something, not to say you can't bet it and win, and if you do, good for you, but game four of an NBA finals like tonight's would be that moment where I would say, "Uh, you should probably stay away from this."
3:29
I was sitting with Carl Sack yesterday, which we'll get to momentarily. Carl Sack, uh, some folks know as NBA guru. He and I worked with Dr. Bob for many years.
3:36
The best NBA handicapper I've ever observed, um, historically, just incredible. And even he yesterday was like, "Yeah," 'cause you just don't...
3:44
The bottom line is you cannot f- there's no way for you to know if the Mavericks are gonna be motivated to avoid a sweep- Yes. Yes... or if they're just gonna lie like the choking dogs that they've been.
3:56
I, it's, I, I think you said it well. And we, we, and we, we so rarely go into, like, the mental side in games- Yes...
4:03
like this, but I think it's, I think it's so hard to, I think it's so hard to assume one way or the other with a team in s- in a situation like this, especially a team that's so, that is so dominated by their stars, right?
4:15
Like, if [laughs] okay, if Luka or Kyrie decides that they're giving up or they're giving 110% tonight, like, that's a big difference in the game. Yeah.
4:22
So yeah, I, I mean, I don't, j- just like I said in game three, Gil, I mean, the only side I could imagine possibly betting on tonight would be the Boston Celtics.
4:29
It still would, hey, even the Mavericks, when they've been giving, give, uh, been giving their best shot, are nowhere close to as good as what this team has been, so.
4:37
Well, I do have two observations, one of which is a betting one and one of which is not.
4:41
Let's start with the one that's not, and that is I've been bringing up the Celtics for, for lack of a, you know, a, a feel here certainly as this series has moved on.
4:49
Uh, I, I've been bringing up the Celtics in a historical perspective, and I brought it up with Drew Ditz a couple days ago, you may recall.
4:55
And I asked him, I said, "Look, uh, these Celtics have the possibility of going here, if they win tonight, 80 and 20 when you, uh, put the regular season and the playoffs together.
5:04
If they lose tonight and they win in the gentleman sweep, 80 and 21, whatever the case. Where do, where do you feel that puts them in historical perspective?" And his line was, "On paper they're a super team," he said.
5:16
Mm-hmm. Um, he added, "I don't know that they'll be an all-time great, but they are a super team." And I quipped, 'cause I like to quip, Kelly, I don't know if you know that. Uh, on the way out I said, "Really?
5:27
'Cause I, I think..."
5:28
And not that, not that this was an argument, 'cause he said, "I don't know if they'll be a super team," 'cause I said in my mind's eye, like, there's a bunch of Warriors teams that would've crushed this team.
5:35
That was my thought on the way out. Yeah. And so C- I said to Carl yesterday, 'cause Carl wanted no part of game four, I was like, "Could you, uh, do a little bit of analysis on this stuff?"
5:44
So now he said, like, if you really wanted to do the analysis, and this is Carl Sack talking, and he, and he knows his stuff.
5:50
Uh, if you really wanna do the analysis, what he was saying was, and I'll read it verbatim, "You would, you would basically have to say, you'd, you'd have to dive into, you know-
6:03
As, as a first pass, this is just a first pass, is just going to wins, win percentage, and points per game differential.
6:11
But if you, if you really wanted to get into it, like, you'd have to really break down, you know, the rate of points, adjust for schedule. Like, you'd have to do a deeper dive.
6:21
But just for our purposes here, let's just talk about records and, and win, uh, you know, wins, win percentage, and, and points per game differential. And so where do this -- where does this Celtics team rank?
6:32
And I-- So what we did is we did the last 20 NBA champions. We went back 20 years, last 20 NBA champions.
6:39
And I threw in, 'cause I'm just trying to muddy the waters, I threw in the 73 and 9 record-setting regular season Warriors team that lost the NBA championship to the Cavaliers in seven, uh, back in 2015, 2016.
6:53
So when you do those 21 teams, that, that historical analysis, it is that Warriors team that lost the championship that had the most wins, 88 and 18 combined.
7:03
That's the most wins, 88, in a season, regular season plus the playoffs. It's the second-best win percentage of any team in the last 20 years, 83%.
7:11
And they were fourth in points per game differential, otherwise known as average margin of victory, 9.31 points per game, okay? That was the 73 and 9, lost the championship- Yeah... to the Cavs, uh, Warriors.
7:23
C- can I add one more thing onto that season? Please. Yes. Which is this, this was fascinating 'cause I pulled up just historical net rating here, uh, on teams i- in best finishes.
7:32
You know that Warriors team [laughs] you know, the Spurs that year had a better net rating than them? The -- So I was -- You, you, you jumped ahead where I was gonna go 'cause I was gonna mention that Spurs team.
7:41
Oh, yeah. [laughs] Okay. Yeah. 'Cause that Spurs team you're talking about actually from a, a points per game differential, average margin of victory, they actually ranked in this. They actually polluted this as well.
7:52
On that -- in that one category, um, they ended up, they ended up as, uh, the 67-win Spurs from that same year that lost in round two to OKC.
8:04
Remember that OKC team that then went up three to one on the Warriors and the Warriors came back and beat them.
8:08
They had a 10.47, uh, differential in points, so they would have actually finished third in the last 20 years in terms of points differential.
8:16
But in terms of champions and the 73 and 9, uh, Warriors of that one year, so that team first in wins, second in win percentage, fourth in points per game differential.
8:26
The, the next year's Warriors, that team that went 16 and one in the postseason and the South Point actually put up a prop, will they go 16 and O, the just ridiculously dominant 2016, 2017 Warriors, they went 83 and 16 combined.
8:42
Second in total wins, tied for second in total wins, first in win percentage. Nobody has ever put together in the last 20 years a season like 83 and 16. That's just unbelievable.
8:51
And they were first in points per game differential, 11.96. So in many ways, as great as that 73 and 9 team was, it was the year after.
9:00
That Warriors team the year after that is clearly, I think, the best team in the last 20 years. Uh, the 2014-15 Warriors, if I just may add this, this was one that predated KD, the one where Dr.
9:14
Bob had them at like 40 to one. People didn't get how great they were yet. Yeah, yeah. They were second, tied for second in amount of wins. They were 83 and 20, tied for the, the most, uh, wins in the last 20 years.
9:24
Second, tied for second. Third in win percentage. Third in points per game differential. So all three of those Warriors team are at the top, of those Warriors teams.
9:32
These Celtics, who are currently 79 and 20, just for perspective now, last 20 years plus the 21st team, the 73 and 9 Warriors, they're seventh in wins, 79. They're fourth, fourth in win percentage, 79.8%, 79 and 20.
9:51
And here's where they really do rank, second in points per game differential, second in average margin of victory, 11.14. Only those 2016-17 Warriors top them. So that's some perspective on where this Celtics team ranks.
10:06
And yes, they did catch the royal flush of injuries in the Eastern Conference playoffs. That obviously helped this along. But are they -- What -- So what does that mean? Let's, let's be generous.
10:17
Let's say they're the fourth-best team in the last 20 years, if we're being super generous. That's as high as you can really rank them. If we went back 30 years, Kelly,
10:28
then you would have to add in the '95, '96 Bulls and the '96, '97 Bulls with Jordan. Yeah, who are one, two everything you look at. Yeah, because the '95, '96 Bulls were 72 and 10 in the regular season.
10:40
They ended up 87%. They ended up 87 and 13. So they'd have the second-most wins, the highest winning percentage, and the most, number one in points per game differential, 12.24.
10:55
The year after that when they were s- when they were a lowly 69 and 13, they still ended up 84 and 17 with an 83.2 percentage, uh, win percentage of the title and 10.80, uh, points per game differential.
11:08
So if you went back 30 years, you'd have to add those two teams in.
11:11
Now, detractors will say, and you can't really detract from Michael Jordan, but detractors, at least in that terms of historical contest, con- context, would say there was a lot of expansion in the NBA just before that, so they had an easier road that way.
11:22
So anyway, that's where the Celtics rank, about fourth generously if they can close it out tonight in the last 20 years, or if they can close it out in game five.
11:32
Um, and then a little further down if you went back 30 years. So I think Drew is right. Super team, but like, you know, not historically great.
11:40
We can name three Dubs teams in the last, you know, recent history that are better by any sort of measure. We'll come back. What about NBA MVP, Fi- Finals MVP? We can bet that next.
11:56
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12:03
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12:19
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12:23
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12:32
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12:44
I faked you out. Faked you out. Nice job, Kelly. Um, speaking of the NFL, the, the biggest news in the NFL yesterday, uh, lest we let that slip by the wayside is, of course, Trevor Lawrence.
12:56
Uh, Trevor Lawrence being, uh, signed to an extension by the Jacksonville Jaguars. Uh, the details of which, of course, are always eye-opening when it's with a, uh, when it's with a quarterback of the NFL.
13:08
And we have said on this show many, many times, well, this is the cruelty of the economics of the NFL because the Jaguars at some point are gon- w- ha- knew that they'd have to make a decision on Trevor Lawrence, and so they signed him to a five-year, $275 million contract extension.
13:26
Adam Schefter the, uh, first to report that yesterday. The contract, Kelly, includes 200 million guaranteed, including 142 million at signing. That just shows up in one check. Is that how that works? They wire that in?
13:39
[lips smack] Oh, yeah. There's the... Well, I, I always wonder about the guaranteed money too. 'Cause yes, you get the signing bonus and then the guaranteed. Like, if it's guaranteed, can I just get it all up front? No.
13:49
Guaranteed, I think, is prorated, but the, but the signing bonus is right up- up top, I believe. Either way, it's a sweet day. But this is, you know, how many times have we said on this show?
13:58
You can only win an NFL championship, you can only win a Super Bowl if you have a rookie, a quarterback on a rookie deal that's over-performing and you can pay everybody else 'cause- Yeah...
14:07
he's capped, or a Hall of Famer. In the middle, there's the Dak Prescott, Trevor Lawrence,
14:14
Jared Goff of the world, and yes, time will tell if any of these guys will get there, but Kirk Cousinses, if you will, of the world, where they're good quarterbacks, maybe even very good, but are they great?
14:26
And it's beyond the rookie deal. So, but they get to a point in their career after the rookie deal where the team that has them is forced to make this massive economic decision.
14:34
Like, are we going to sign this guy for, again here, $275 million, or are we going to go a different direction? And these teams, they k- they, they're almost forced to do this- Yeah... because what are they gonna do?
14:46
What's the alternative, right? But here is, this is courtesy of, uh, everybody's favorite, uh, Twitter feed, Kelly, Ghetto Gronk. Uh, this is Trevor Lawrence's first 50 games compared to Daniel Jones' first 50 games.
14:59
Now think about, before we get into it, think about how you th- how you perceive Daniel Jones, or the s- mainstream media perceives Daniel Jones, and then think of how the mainstream media or you perceive of Trevor Lawrence.
15:09
I think you will agree that no matter what you feel of Trevor Lawrence, uh, it's a better thought than you have of Daniel Jones. Well, look at that. Uh, first 50 games.
15:20
Now Daniel Jones has played 60 now, but first 50 games, which is exactly how many Trevor has played, uh, he's 20 of 30 win-loss record. Daniel Jones 19, 30 and 1. Almost the exact same thing. Uh, rating,
15:32
actually Daniel Jones's is better, 86 to 85. Total yards, uh, Trevor Lawrence has him beat by less than 300. Passing, uh, passing touchdowns, Trevor Lawrence 58, Daniel Jones 57.
15:46
Picks, actually Daniel Jones has fewer, 33 to Trevor Lawrence's 39. Yards per attempt, it's dead even at 6.7. Completion percentage, dead even at 63%. I think you get it
15:58
that these decisions are rife with pitfalls, man, [laughs] and that they might just have signed the equivalent of Daniel Jones. I know that you probably... I'm not saying he's, that Daniel Jones is as good. I'm with you.
16:10
[laughs] Trevor Lawrence is better. But if you just look at those raw numbers, mm. We're, we're going off numbers here. Numbers and numbers.
16:16
It's gonna go back to a tweet we just got from Rich, too, over what we talked about last segment. But numbers are, you can't argue against the numbers. Like those- They don't lie... those, they don't lie, man. Yeah.
16:24
Like, that is, that's the case. I, and you hit on the big point of like, I don't, I don't... I'm glad you said it, 'cause I didn't wanna get in a stupid argument over Trevor Lawrence's stupid, uh, face today.
16:34
But the, uh- [laughs] Like, what do you, like these teams, right? His stupid face. Like, what are they supposed to do? Like you said, like you- What are you supposed to do?... you gotta give him the money.
16:41
I was the one, though, with the Rams where I said they should be the first team to start, like, "Jared Goff, this was great. Nice run. Whoosh. We're starting over." Okay.
16:49
I was gonna bring this up 'cause there's two decisions there, right? That's one, which you want to applaud them for, but I also feel like we all, we all loved Matthew Stafford. I don't think any of us thought, though,
17:01
there's like an all-time great quarterback sitting in Detroit that if you just went and swapped quarterbacks, you're going to a Super, you're winning a Super Bowl right away, right? Like, is that fair?
17:10
No, I'm just, I'm just pointing out that this is the cruelty of NFL economics. It is. It is. Right? It's all cruel. Yep. Because what are you gonna do?
17:17
Every, every one of these days where another one of these stories comes down, it is like, I don't, I don't wanna turn into ESPN here- [laughs]... but you're like, "What are the Cowboys doing?" Like, what are you doing?
17:26
What are you... Well, first of all, what are they doing showing a Dak segment every... ESPN has now admitted that the more they talk about the Cowboys, they're like, "Guess what? You guys watch."
17:34
[laughs] Well, I think you have a little something to do with that. [laughs] Maybe change it up and see if you can change behavior. Oh, but they, they, they still gotta pay Dak, CeeDee Lamb- Bro...
17:42
and Micah Parsons, right? Like, what, th- is this gonna be a, a utter disaster that we see? Don't, don't worry, Kelly. Jerry's got it all figured out. Who has he lied to?
17:50
He's gonna be really aggressive this off-season or something like that? Yeah. We haven't seen any of that. Uh, all right. Back to the NBA for a second.
17:57
Real quick before we get off the historical thing, 'cause I wanna talk finals NBA picks. Yeah, I've still got final thoughts, too- Net rating...
18:01
or final thoughts on that What were your, what were your net ratings historical? Net rating numbers Yeah, and that is points, you know, points per 100 possessions.
18:08
What you score, subtract what you give up on the defensive side. So all-time, where net rating ra- uh, ranks out, you have the b- 95-96 Bulls,
18:17
the 96-97 Bulls, and then you have a tie for third with the 16-17 Warriors and this Boston Celtics team. Okay. So for net rating, the, this, this year's Celtics team actually does get a little higher.
18:30
And as Carl Sachs said, who current thanks to Carl for those earlier stats, he had said he would start with play per efficiency since pace has dramatically increased. Sure. That's the big difference in the league, right?
18:38
Yep. Three point shooting and pace, and then maybe try to adjust for strength of schedule. Um, but this anyway, the ones that we did, was a first pass at it. Okay. Yeah, yeah. R- uh, Rich's tweet here real quick.
18:48
He s- he said, "You overrated these Celtics. Would you take them over the 2023 Nuggets?" Question mark. "There's an average, they're an average champion and they'd lose four to two.
18:57
You're blinded by incredibly poor opponents." Numbers are numbers, man. Like, I- Uh, uh, he's saying I'm blinded by it? I- Yeah, he's tweeting to both of us. I don't know.
19:04
Um- Well, no, I'm, I'm the one who's saying that this Celtics team does not rank as an all-time great.
19:08
Yeah, I, I, I think that's where, that's where this discussion about this Celtics team does become tough because I don't think there's a lot of people that would say
19:18
they, that they feel like they belong with a lot of these other teams that we're talking about. They- And I agree... here's the, they benefited from a royal flush of injuries on the other side in the Eastern Conference.
19:28
The Bulls, as great as they were, benefited from expansion. You can't say any of that about those Warriors teams. I'm just saying. They're the g- the, to me, they're, uh, they're top of the heap.
19:38
The playoffs was one thing, though. There was nothing e- there was nothing easy about what they did in the regular season. No, 100%. You know? And they're not to blame for who they played. Right. Yeah. Right? Yeah.
19:44
You gotta give them that. Uh, all right, NBA Finals MVP. I wanna, I just wanna bring this up. What kind of favorite is Jaylen Brown right now in this market, Kelly? Like, he is minus 280. Jaylen Brown minus 280.
19:57
Jayson Tatum is plus 250. Everybody else, starting with Luka, is 22 to one. Even, even, uh, Jrue, Jrue Holiday, who had that, uh, great game too. He's 75 to one, by the way.
20:05
Thank you, Nevada Gaming, for not putting up that market. [laughs] Um, I just wanna make the point that while I think Jaylen Brown
20:13
could be favorite here, and probably is a justified small favorite, I think minus 280 is outrageous. And I think Jayson Tatum at plus 250 might actually be live.
20:23
Let me just throw up the numbers from games one, two, and three, and then the collective shooting percentages of this. So game one, uh, Jaylen Brown.
20:34
I'll read it from the, uh, the old computer here because we get it ready here. J- game one, Brown, 22-6 and, uh, 22-6 and two, I believe he was. I'll check on that assist. Uh, three and, uh, three blocks, three steals.
20:48
Great game for Jaylen Brown in, in game one of this series where the Celtics blew out the Mavs. 22-6 and two with three blocks, three steals. Tatum was 16-11 and five in that game with six turnovers. Advantage Brown.
21:00
Okay? Uh, game two, Jaylen Brown, 21-4 and seven. We're talking points, rebounds and assists. But he had six turnovers along with three steals. Tatum in that game, 18-9 and 12, was a board away from a triple double.
21:16
I'm gonna say advantage Tatum. Six turnovers, Tatum one, six turnovers for Brown, one rebound shy of a triple double. Game three, Brown, 38 and eight, Tatum 31-6 and five. Triple double stats. All right.
21:33
So Brown was two boards and two assists shy of messing around to get a triple double. Now, that's kind of a wash in that one. Here's the differentiator, is Brown's efficiency shooting for the collective three games.
21:46
Brown is 27 of 49, 35.53%. Tatum is a much more woeful 23 of 64, 26.44% for all three games.
21:59
If people were voting NBA MV- NBA Finals MVP on shooting percentage and efficiency, Brown is definitely minus 280. But Kelly, I don't think they're v- I don't think they're voting on that.
22:10
I think they're voting on the more simple stats. And if they're voting on the more simple stats, Brown shouldn't be anywhere close to minus 280, in my opinion. You? Um, he should definitely be the favorite.
22:23
Shouldn't be favored that much. Yeah, I think you could argue that. You think he, you think he could be favored that much? Yeah. Uh, uh, no, I think you could argue that he shouldn't be favored this much.
22:32
He should definitely be the favorite, though. I think he, he most likely- I agree a slight, I agree a slight favorite. Ba- I would make him a slight favorite based on the shooting efficiency. But minus 280?
22:40
Tatum at plus 250. I don't know. I think that might be live. Coming back with Chris Velique on soccer next. Alexander Kelly, Bidlin, live from Barcalona, The Barrage here at the D, downtown Las Vegas.
22:50
Uh, Kelly, shame on me. I've gone a half hour without updating the US Open leaderboard, uh, over there at Pinehurst.
22:56
Patrick Cantlay ha- who has not started his round, his second round yet, he is the leader, uh, five under heading into today after his, uh, round of 65 yesterday.
23:07
One stroke lead over Ludvig Åberg, who also has not started his round. He shot a 66 yesterday, a four under 66. Uh, as far as today's performances, well, the course is winning. I think that's the early return anyway.
23:19
Rory, two over for the day through 10, so he is two shots back now at three under for the tournament. Uh, some other names on the leaderboard, uh, Bryson DeChambeau, two back at three under.
23:32
Uh, he is even halfway through his round today. Uh, three back at two under, Tony Finau. Four back at one under among that group, Xander Schauffele. The always steady Xander Schauffele, Kelly.
23:43
Um, and then Koepka, who hasn't started his round, he ended up even yesterday. And Scottie Scheffler. Can't talk about this leaderboard without mentioning him.
23:52
He is now two over for the day through 10, three over for the tournament, so he's a full eight strokes back and flirting perhaps with the cut line when all is said and done. Uh, did anybody have Cantlay, Kelly? Anybody?
24:07
Not that I heard Okay [laughs] That I heard. Just, j- just for my historical golf betting though, this would, uh, th- this would be right on if it was Cantlay, Hatton one, two What happens if it's Cantlay, Hatton?
24:17
What do you do to yourself? Do you harm yourself? No, no, not that guy. Not that guy. Don't worry. You don't gotta worry about that. Don't do that, yeah. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, Chris Fallica is here. He is the Bear.
24:27
He is, uh, doing his stuff at Fox Sports these days. He got the Bear Bet spot, and he's out in LA for the next, I don't know, month and a half just chilling- [laughs]...
24:35
doing soccer, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Chris? I, I'm doing well. They just started to, uh, empty the, uh, the dumpster out back.
24:42
So if you hear a little, little truck and a little noise and a little, little banging around, th- that's what's going on out there.
24:48
That's a great- that's so beautiful how I just open up the sliders, sleep with the, with the windows open. Oh, it was great. But, uh, yeah, I, I had Cantlay to, uh, to miss the cut. [laughs] That, that's a...
24:58
I, I put him, I put him, I put him right in, put... I picked, I picked Dortich to finish last in the, uh, i- in the, in the Belmont, and I put him right in the winner's circle. So, uh, uh, I have that effect on people.
25:08
But- Man... yeah, it- it- it's ki- it's kind of crazy.
25:10
Like, the thought process for today was that the early wave would kind of have a little bit of an edge over the later wave, 'cause it's supposed to get super hot, and they think that course is just gonna dry out and be super tough in the afternoon.
25:22
But so far the, uh, the morning scores haven't necessarily been, been great.
25:26
I think like a Thomas Detry I think is three under on the day, and I, I think there might be a couple, couple other two or three unders on the day.
25:33
But, uh, look, look, look, doesn't look like there's gonna be a, much of an edge, if any, unless, unless the afternoon is brutally tough. Yeah. Where they got you?
25:40
The, the Beverly Wilshire, the, uh, the Beverly Hills Hotel? I, I, I, I am, I am at The Cameo- Ah... which used to be, which used to be Mr. C. It's right on the, right around the corner of, uh, Pico and Beverwil.
25:51
Ah, Pico and Beverwil. Not quite as sexy- Yeah, yeah... but, but cool nonetheless. Uh, okay, Euro Cup 2024. You are... Now we've, we've talked about this. You've been on this show, and literally, like one day we counted.
26:01
You, you have talked about, we've had bets from you on 10 or 11 different sports.
26:06
And horse racing, when I've asked you the question, like if you could only have one for the rest of time, horse racing was, has always been your answer. Is soccer number two for you? It might be.
26:17
Like, I, I, I just, I just love the variety that, in, in soccer. And while getting involved with, with, with unders and penalties and extra time goals can, uh, kind of screw with you and put you in a bad place.
26:30
But, uh, I, I, I lo- I love soccer betting, so, uh, hopefully the next five weeks or so will be, uh, will be fun. Well, let's start with outrights in Euro Cup 2024. What do you, what do you like? Who, who do you like?
26:40
What side do you like to win it all, or what bets would you make? I, I think France is the best team, but I'm a little ins... Like, like Kylian Mbappé i- is injured. Like, he hasn't been training.
26:52
Uh, Tchouaméni, one of their key midfielders, he's hurt.
26:55
Like, they are the deepest team and they're, and, and the best team, but, uh, their for- their, their, their makeup and, uh, their injuries have me a little bit concerned.
27:04
I think Portugal might be worth a flyer, uh, at a bit of a price. They've got a ton of talent, and even, even Spain. Like that, that, that cut below.
27:12
Like, you, you've got the, you've got the France, England, Germany, but those next two teams, Spain and Portugal, if you're looking to, uh, to potentially take a chance there, um, tho- those teams might be, uh, be worth a shot.
27:26
How about prop bets, group by group? Anything there? Yeah, I, I played, uh, I played some, uh, tournament long props. So like, like if you're looking for...
27:38
Like if you're just looking for a team to win a group and you don't care about like laying a number, Portugal to win their group I think was like right around a minus 245 or so.
27:48
Like, they should win their group very easy. It's a very weak group. But again, it, it's just your appetite. Do you care about laying 240 or not?
27:57
But, but some of the tournament long stuff like, like Golden Boot and Most Outstanding Player and, uh, Most Goals and stuff like that, like that I...
28:05
Those things, I found a couple of longer prices there that I took a, uh, I took a shot with. I, I pla- I played Rodri, uh, the Spanish midfielder, uh, to be the most out- outstanding player in the tournament at 30 to 1.
28:16
Like I just mentioned how Spain I think is eight to one to win the, win the tournament.
28:20
If Spain wins the tournament, there's a really, really, really good chance that Rodri is going to be, uh, named Most Outstanding Player, because Spain really does not have a legitimate like proven goal scorer up front.
28:34
Now, they have a couple of young guys, uh, that, uh, Nico Williams and, and, um, a- and, and Yamal Amin, who, uh, I think I said his name right, properly, who could be that.
28:46
But they're gonna have to show it for the first time on a n- international stage to do it. And Rodri's so good in the midfield, everything kind of goes through him.
28:54
Uh, 30 to 1 I thought was a, a good price on a team that can win, and you're getting almost four times the price on what you would get on Spain to win the tournament.
29:02
Um, Serbia to allow the most goals in the tournament at 16 to 1, I think that's a, uh, a pretty live bet for multiple reasons. Number one,
29:11
in this group, there's a chance they potentially could get through as a third place team maybe, and get, get that fourth game in the round of 16.
29:21
But they also draw England in their first match, and England coming off of that loss to Iceland in the friendly, they are going to be out to put up a big number and kind of calm everybody down at home, get their confidence back.
29:32
So it would not surprise me to see England put up four in their first match on Sunday against Serbia. This is a team that's really, really bad on defense.
29:40
They've got a couple of goal scorers up front, but, uh, you've got Denmark in there, you've got Slovenia, who I mentioned, who I heard Paul Carr mention yesterday about Benjamin Sesko, who can score.
29:50
But Serbia to allow the most goals plus 1600 was something. And, and I played Ukraine's Artem Dovbyk, uh, to win Golden Boot at, uh, 47 to 1. Someone who played for Girona in La Liga this year. He led La Liga in goals.
30:03
Uh, you're in a group here with, uh, Romania, who's one of the bottom feeders of, of the tournament, uh, Belgium, who- Has great firepower, but defensively they're weak. And Slovakia who, who will allow some goals.
30:14
So, uh, Ukraine is a team that I think can get through to the round of 16, maybe potentially the quarterfinal.
30:21
And, uh, if he can put up, uh, if he can put up some goals in the group stage and maybe get a couple against Romania, uh, you might be live at 47 to 1, especially if indeed, uh, Mbappe maybe doesn't play a group stage game and is a little slow in getting going.
30:33
Okay, let me repeat those, Chris, not because I didn't get them, but because people are, you know, obviously the American sports fan is not necessarily, soccer is not necessarily second nature. So, um,
30:43
Serbia to allow the most goals in this tournament, 16 to 1. Mm-hmm. Um, Rudiger, who's on, uh, who's on Germany, Germany- Well, actually we haven't gotten, we haven't gotten to that yet.
30:52
That's a, that's a separate match for today. Okay. We, we haven't gotten to Rudiger yet. Rodri, most outstanding player, 30 to 1. He is on Spain's side, Rodri? Right. Yes. Okay. Mm-hmm. Um, and Dobre.
31:06
Have we gotten to, we haven't... Have we gotten to Dobre? Yes. He- Golden Boot, 40- D- O- P- D- O- B- D- O- B- V- Y- K, for those who are looking for him. D- O- B- V- Y- K. He's Ukrainian. Yes. On a Ukraine side. Yep.
31:17
For the Golden Boot at 47 to 1. Now, as far as today's, go ahead with, with your thoughts on Rudiger. Yeah. Yeah, first match for today, um,
31:25
Ger- Germany, uh, and Scotland, it should probably be a pretty defensive-minded game. I th- I think Scotland will try a- and just defend to keep this low scoring. But I'm not as high on Germany as a lot of people are.
31:37
That I think it's more of just, oh, they're home, they've overhauled their roster, so of course they're gonna go out and, and make a deep run. But I, I don't see, like, the,
31:46
the, the ruthless scorer like Germany has had up front in the past. Maybe Ha- Havertz will turn into that.
31:51
Uh, I still think they have a couple of holes, but, but today I, I played, uh, Antonio Rudiger, the, uh, defensive, uh, defensive back, um, play, um, defensive back that... It's, uh, kinda the def- defender.
32:06
Uh, I have my mind on American football all of a sudden. But Antonio Rudiger to have at least one shot, uh, at minus 125, and you could play a little one shot on goal at plus 300. He's really good in the air.
32:17
Germany should have a million corner kicks, and odds are he can get his head on one of them and maybe, uh, hopefully put it on target. Next week, a Heisman long shot from you? Maybe. We'll see. Maybe. We'll see.
32:28
How's that for a maybe tease? [laughs] Maybe. We'll see. I'll get back to you on that. Okay. Thank you, Chris. Enjoy your time in LA. Take care, guys. Chris Falike, everybody. John Lagasse on the other side.
32:38
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32:47
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33:05
Uh, when VSIN, uh, plus, plus, plus, plus, uh, gets done and people can subscribe to that, some of the rabbit holes we go down on, here, o- off air.
33:12
[laughs] I'm rethinking every carnival game ever, ever created now based off of that off-air conversation. Somehow we got into Battle of the Network Stars, and then, like, we were talking about the Dunk Tank.
33:21
Like, who was the human being- [laughs]... right, who conceived of this? I've got it. Like, was that the guy who was, like, running around every pool party pushing people into the pool? It must have been.
33:30
And they're, they're like, "I need a better way to get, take advantage of this."
33:32
[laughs] We'll put a celebrity on a seat, preferably a girl, if he's, you know, what he was going for, and then if they hit s- the thing falls, and they fall in the water, it's a hole.
33:41
The, the best part about the Dunk Tank is nobody's ever escaped it dry. Like, even if you're at a fair and, like, everyb- like, like, there's been- [laughs]...
33:48
200 kids that have thrown 1,000 baseballs at it, like, they still dunk the guy every time. This man is a fan of the Dunk Tank as well.
33:55
He comes to us from, I don't know, right out of the outfield seats at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, right out of central casting.
34:02
It's our buddy John Lagasse, everybody, uh, truly the host of the Cork Stats podcast, MLB and NFL writer for The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at John Laghezza.
34:11
That's how you spell Lagasse, L-A-G-A-S-S-E, courtesy of the Progressive guest line. How you doing, Johnny? Love it, man. Feature the bleacher creature. All right, yeah, John Lagasse. Check it out on Twitter and on...
34:23
You, I think you're part of it. You helped me make me a bestselling Substack author. Oh. Hat tip to you, man. Nice. Glad we did that. Well, you're no, uh, no move, uh, no needle mover.
34:33
Uh, let me just ax you this before we get to your three picks here. [laughs] Ax it. Ax away. [laughs] Uh, I wanna a- I wanna say this.
34:40
The Yankees, just since I brought them up, J- I mean, I know they lost yesterday, and I know they lost in dramatic fashion in the ninth to the Royals, but as a Yankee guy, how excited are you about this team right now?
34:53
Man, and you know me, right? I'm, I'm very r- uh, reasoned. One of my favorite clips ever was me just having a on-air conniption lambasting the front office when they shipped Jordan Montgomery for Bader, right?
35:06
So I try and be very fair. We talked about how unhealthy they were. The pendulum seems to have swing... I know Cole has been out, but other than that they've been really healthy. Juan Soto gave us a scare, and he's back.
35:18
Mm. He's, like, world-beating, playing for... I don't know. You figure this guy's gonna break another contract record. So yes, it's really exciting, but it's also really early.
35:28
I, I only have to look back a few years, the Phillies World Series, and a few before that with Soto, the Nationals World Series. Both of those teams were discarded in August, not even the All-Star break.
35:40
To give people an idea of with the new format, extra teams getting in, from the middle of August, if you run really hot in those six weeks, you're gonna get in the dance, and then whoever's healthy in the short set gets the crown.
35:52
So I'm happy. I think the Yankees are pacing really well. But we're really far from the end. And, you know, the Rays are, I think, better than people give them credit for.
36:02
Boston, I think, having brought in Kyle Boddy, the pitching is kind of speaking for itself, so it's not gonna be a cakewalk. I'm, I'm happy, but we, there's a long way to go.
36:11
World Series title or bust, or, or, or get to the World Series or bust? You know, I'm that guy, the day after they used to get eliminated, I'd wear all my Yankee stuff and be the type to thank them for a good season.
36:23
[laughs] Okay. You're that guy. Like, you, you want, you want them to win it. Yeah, yeah, believe it or not. But wh- I just, I got to be different.
36:30
While everyone is booing and hissing, you know, I mean, these guys go out and break their back for you, and sometimes it just doesn't work out that way.
36:36
It'd be nice for them to bring it all the way home, because I think, especially with Soto, it's very much a win now.
36:43
Louis Hill, who's been phenomenal, I don't know if he's ever thrown more than, like, 60 innings in a year, you got to get what you can get right now. So I'm hoping that they add.
36:53
Again, I don't think they need to add the world, but never hurts to bring in a bullpen guy. Maybe it wouldn't hurt to, I don't know, just solidify the bench a little bit. If they ran a little more, it would help.
37:02
So I'm more of the Yankee pessimist, but it's definitely exciting. But to be honest, do you think they're better than the Orioles? I don't know. Yeah, it's, it's interesting.
37:09
Uh, that John is the guy who is, even when they get eliminated, stands up and applauds the team for giving them a great season.
37:15
Our, our buddy Todd Wright, when, uh, the, when the Golden Knights sent an email thanking the fans after they got eliminated for a great season, he wrote an angry email back saying- [laughs]...
37:24
"Stop with this nonsense with the thanking the fans." [laughs] So, so there's all, all different types. All right, John, uh, you got three plays, starting with the Padres. What do you got with them today?
37:35
All right, this one is the one that I definitely like the most. There's a lot of meat on this bone. It's an F5 play, so let's go into the, go with the Padres. I was going to say to the beautiful weather.
37:45
They're leaving the beautiful weather and going to Queens to face the Let's Go Mets go. Maddie Waldron's on the bump with this really interesting knuckleball. What I like about him is it's not all knuckleball, right?
37:54
We've seen the R.A. Dickey and the Wakefield stuff, where you could be very erratic start to start. Because it's only a piece of the arsenal, if you don't have it, you can go away from it.
38:04
And when it works, he hyper-features it. So we've seen that lately. I don't think... He's given up two runs across the three last three starts total, and you kind of know what you're getting, right?
38:13
You're not going to get a lot of swing and miss. You're not going to get a lot of strikeouts, but the ball's going to be on the ground, and you're looking at a lot of weak contact.
38:21
You're looking at a lot of double plays, and I think that's kind of the center of the play right here. The Mets, one of the things that I do with my Substack page is it's, it's really important to split offenses.
38:31
In particular, if we look at a five-inning bets, because it really then is truly isolated to the real expectation of five innings from a starter.
38:38
Mets are a totally different team, Jekyll and Hyde, whichever is the good one. I can never remember. Mets verse righties are just horrific, just horrific.
38:46
The last 200 plate appearances against righties as a team, a 215 batting average, only three home runs. It's a 590 OPS and a sub 100 ISO. That's not going to get it done.
38:58
Dead last in lines drive, bottom five in all the X stats. So I think Waldron is going to push the Mets around, and on the other side, I think we have a really good matchup.
39:06
Manaea's been a bit over his skis, and I think that probably corrects today. He's got the 4.3 ERA, 1.35 whip, but all the indicators are a bit worse, and the swing and miss stuff for him really disappeared.
39:19
He's falling behind everybody. 57 first strike, really not viable, especially when you're up against a strong split, right? The second piece of this kind of tr- uh, triple beam balance here.
39:30
Padres raking against lefties. Top five offense verse lefties. Last two weeks, batting 290, 800 OPS, and you know, not striking out, winning in the zone, pulling the ball, elevating.
39:40
345 team expected war, but which probably implies, like, five and three-quarter runs for you nerds out there.
39:45
So I was surprised to see this one come in at even money, or the best we can get from predatory books, even money. Minus 110 on both sides. Give me the Padres through five. I think we get this one pretty easy.
39:54
Padres first five at Citi Field today for Lagasse. Yeah. And by the way, my favorite part of that was, so you're like, Jekyll or Hyde, whichever is the good one, because I, I too have trouble with it.
40:02
Um, in the novel, uh, Dr. Jekyll, a hero who is aware of the evil in his own being and sick of the duplicity in his life, succeeds by way of his experiments on himself in freeing the pure evil part of his being as Mr.
40:13
Hyde. Yeah, why was one a doctor, though, and o- another a mister? You know? I don't know. The mister didn't have- You lose your doctorate when you switch over to Hyde? Mister didn't go to school, apparently.
40:21
[laughs] How did you remember all that? I didn't. I just read that part. [laughs] I was, I was trying to serve, I was trying to serve you up with some- Oh, no... 40, 180I...
40:29
Now look, listen, you got to flash that 180 IQ every once in a while, broseph. [laughs] Man, that was incredible. Broseph. Broseph. All right.
40:35
Uh, Tarik Skubal on the hill today in a, in a at minute made in a game that means a lot to a lot of us around here who have the Astros bets in the month of June. Uh, Skubal,
40:46
20 earned runs in his last 18 starts, dating back to September of 2023. His ERA is 1.92, the lowest from a Tigers pitcher over the first 13 starts of a season since 1945.
40:59
What do you got here between the Tigers and the Astros? Man, uh, Tarik Skubal is a revelation right now. The question for us fantasy geeks coming into the season...
41:08
You know, I like to focus on fantasy, because I think that's where the science happens, and it kind of gives you an idea of what to expect as far as trajectory.
41:15
We knew Tarik Skubal, the upside on a permitting basis as far as efficacy goes, is quite literally, like, the A11 type of guy, Strider type of stuff, and all you needed was the health. Right now, we're getting it.
41:26
So man, this one, again, feels like a bit of a mispriced. Minus 110 on both sides. It's Detroit at Houston. But like you mentioned, it's not just a 31% K, 16 swing and strike, 31 whiff, which is all kind of validated.
41:39
It's elite, elite control. A... I've been using ball rate, again, one of the, you know, piece of nuance in the context when you get with my stuff. I think ball rate is a bit more predictive than walk rate.
41:50
A 30% ball rate, right, the inverse is a 70% strike rate is just through the roof. So he gets ahead, induces chases, induces whiffs, then is a ground ball machine and impossible to hit home runs off of.
42:02
As much as I like the Astros, I think this is the public kind of chasing the jerseys a little bit. Without Kyle Tucker, they're not quite the same. They really are just a human offense verse lefties.
42:12
And while Brown has corrected course a bit, we're still talking about a guy with a 39% ball rate and a double digit walk with the 57 first strike. So you're going to fall behind a team like Detroit.
42:22
I think they get just enough done. So give me five, because again, like you mentioned, Skubal is such a tough customer. I'd be surprised if the Astros get to two. So give me the Tigers minus 110 through five. Okay.
42:31
Kyle Tucker was supposed to come back today, but probably not today. Hopefully for the Astros sometime this weekend. So Padres- Yeah, that's what I thought...
42:39
Padres first five, Tigers first five, which I don't like because I'm rooting for the Astros. Uh, give us one full game play in the last 30 seconds here. Yeah. Last one, this is really easy. It's gonna be...
42:49
I've been calling it an inflection point on my show, where we see enough of a sample where we want to buy into it, but then we have to know, are we gonna re- revert back?
42:58
It's Kevin Gausman, full game, minus 130, who's been great coming off a complete game shutout against Logan Allen with a nearly 60 ERA and two WHIP. He's been really bad.
43:07
I think the Blue Jays beat the guards at home, minus 130, full game. John, appreciate it, man. Good luck with the bets. Miss you, man. Have a great weekend, bro. John Lagasse, everybody. The microwave. Instant offense.
43:17
We'll come back. Matt Lindeman on the College World Series. Story Bonnetony on the UFL Championship. It's a numbers game at Vsins, the sports betting network.
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