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Jun 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | June 15, 2026 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | June 15, 2026 | Hour 1
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45:19
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat rock music] This is VSiN, the sports betting network. The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:17
Good Monday morning to you. It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, SiriusXM channel 158. Gil Alexander. Kelly Bedell. Hey-oh.
0:28
In the hizzy on a Monday from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas, um, where the answer to the question I posed at the end of Friday's show of which of these two series, if either or both, or neither,
0:44
I think I've covered all the options- Zero... which, which will still be going on? And the answer is none of them. Neither of them. Yeah. Dunzo. NBA and N- and NHL, we will talk about those, uh, momentarily here.
0:54
Uh, Greg Peterson will join us to talk Major League Baseball. Dallin Cuff on what has been an awesome World Cup so far. Are survivor entries looking pretty good already? Well, let's...
1:03
Oh, well, of course, what, what, [laughs] what would anybody else expect, Gil? That's right. From us? Soccer? You kidding me? Wes Reynolds a little later on. It is US Open week at Shinnecock Hills.
1:12
Wes Reynolds will discuss with us, um, whether is a factor it looks like. You know how weather reports go, but anyway, on a Monday- Mm-hmm... that's how it appears, so you might have to handicap around that.
1:23
Adam Burke on Major League Baseball. We'll dip into some NFL awards a little later on. Our, uh, our NFL betting guide is, uh, coming out on the 22nd, so that's a week from today.
1:33
Our stuff that we're writing is due this Thursday, Kelly Bedell, and just a reminder here, 'cause you know, you know me, I'm always aware of, of deadlines here at the network. My homework is in. It's done. Done.
1:46
It is on our document ready to be edited and proofed and whatever, but my English is perfect. Your English is perfect on that? Yeah. I have, uh, I saw yours. I have one elaborate one. You, you went one elaborate...
1:58
So first of all, there's a grid for all, like, a whole bunch of VSiN hosts and regular guests, typical- Oh, you went to the grid... division champs. Yeah.
2:05
Uh, you know, Super Bowl, conference champs, that kind of thing, but then we also offer our best bets, and I saw you did one pretty elaborate one and one pretty straightforward one, correct? Sure. Yeah.
2:15
I would think they're pretty straightforward. Well, no, but- I mean, both of them I've talked multiple times about on this show already, so. Okay. Yeah, I think mine is gonna- I like that... end up that way.
2:21
I, I like one above all. I don't know whether to talk about it on the show or just wait for the guide to come out, but w- we can- Well, yeah. Yeah, maybe, maybe next week.
2:26
We'll wait for the guide, and then we'll talk about it, right? Okay. All right. We'll do it. Um, let us discuss, though, first of all, uh, let's do this in, in most recent order.
2:36
Let's do it with the Stanley Cup Final ending elas- uh, ending last night here at T-Mobile. The Carolina Hurricanes are your Stanley Cup champions.
2:44
Congratulations to all their fans, all their backers who had the Hurricanes in whichever fashion you might have had them.
2:51
They beat the Golden Knights last night, win the series four games to two, and like we will say with the New York Knicks, they sure deserved it. Carolina, the better team up and down.
3:02
After, after the Golden Knights took the four to nothing lead in game three, remember that game where the, Mitch Marner had the hat trick in six minutes and 10 seconds?
3:11
The Golden Knights coughed up the lead and eventually won it in overtime- Mm-hmm... to take a two to one series lead.
3:17
Since, from that point forward, uh, from that point forward, Carolina outscored VGK 16 to six the rest of the way. Hmm. 16 to six the rest of the way.
3:28
It was reminiscent of year one for the Golden Knights when they played the Capitals in the Stanley Cup Final. Uh, Golden Knights won the first game, and then the Capitals outscored VGK the rest of the way 16 to eight.
3:39
Caps scored 20 goals in that series. Um, I guess Hurricanes even scored more in this series. And remember the question that I asked of, uh, of Jake Hahn on, uh, Tuesday, this past Tuesday?
3:51
This was after game three when the Golden Knights were up two, two games to one, and I dared ask him the question because even though they were up two to one, um, Hart looked very, very vulnerable in net, and I dared ask him, "Hey, do you think John Tortorella," because Rod Brind'Amour had made the, the change in goal from Anderson to Bussey, and I s- I dared ask Jake the question, "Should the, should the Golden Knights do that?"
4:14
And Jake, who's super Canadian polite, right? But I could tell didn't wanna laugh at me, but sort of was, like, very kind i- in being dismissive- Mm-hmm... and saying, "Yeah, it's not gonna happen."
4:24
And then Stormy, right, both Stormy and, and Jake know hockey so much better than we do, and Stormy on, after the show, she was like, "Yeah, that's not gonna happen."
4:31
And then a, an, an intrepid reporter after game four when the series got knotted up at two games a piece dared ask John Tortorella the same question, "You gonna go to Aiden, Aiden Hill, by the way? Any chance of that?"
4:42
And Tortorella said, "Stupidest question I've ever heard in my life." Yeah. Well, I don't know if either of those questions was that stupid in the end. Yeah. I really don't.
4:50
It's, uh, it's always, like, one of the, it's one of the toughest things that you and I always talk about, not like we're the biggest hockey handicappers on the planet, but the, yeah, the, the whole goal, switching the goalie I always find fascinating, right?
5:01
'Cause do you, do you stick with what's got you there to that point?
5:04
It j- it seems often when they make these changes to be too reactionary in my opinion, but, um, man, I, I know a lot of times you gotta g- a couple really good guys, uh, in net, and then Carolina had multiple options to go to there, and it's, it's always, it, it is always fascinating to be, uh, fascinating to me when we get in big series when coaches decide to do that.
5:23
Yeah, Caps scored 20 goals in five games in the, uh, year, in year one of, of Vegas Golden Knights' season in the Stanley Cup Final. The Carolina Hurricanes scored 24 goals in six, so it's sort of reminiscent of that.
5:36
And then Jordan Staal, boy, oh, boy. Mm-hmm. If you had Jordan Staal for Conn Smythe, good on you.
5:40
By the way, Rod Brind'Amour wins as a player with the Hurricanes, the former Hartford Whalers, by the way, Whalers fans rejoicing up in Connecticut.
5:48
Uh, he won it in 2006 as a player, as a captain with the Carolina Hurric- uh, Carolina Hurricanes. Now he wins it as coach. Jordan Staal becomes the oldest player to ever win the Conn Smythe, 37 years old.
6:01
17 years between championships for him. He won it as a, a wee lad, the 2009 Penguins. 37 years old now. Look at... This is from, uh, uh, Josh Engels over at Covers, who put his...
6:15
These are, these are Jordan Staal's Conn Smythe odds in sort of, in, in, in real time order here. He opened, he opened at 300 to 1 before the Stanley Cup playoffs. Remember, Conn Smythe is for the entire playoffs.
6:30
He opened at 300 to 1, right? 16 teams going. Jordan Staal, one player on the Hurricanes, 300 to 1. Right. Before game one of the Stanley Cup Final, he was actually backed [laughs]-- he backed up to 500 to 1.
6:42
How the hell is that possible? Okay. Okay, so he's 500 to 1, because he had, you know, he had, he had other teammates that were much more worthy at that point.
6:51
More worthy, let's not say much more worthy, but more worthy, let's say, with the Hurricanes. So before game one, he's 500 to 1. Now, game one of the Stanley Cup Final, he has a goal. Game two, he has a goal.
7:04
Game three, he has a goal and assist. But at that point, remember, that was the, that was when the Golden Knights led two games to one.
7:12
So he only, only in quotes, went from 500 to 1 to 100 to 1, not because of his performance in the first three games, as I just said, but because the Hurricanes were down two games to one.
7:22
Then he scored early [laughs] he scored early in game four. His odds dropped real, uh, real time, live odds to 40 to 1.
7:30
And then if you recall, his second goal in game four was to break up the three to three tie, the one where he got fed the p- Wes Jarvis was, was in the corner, uh, sent it over to, uh, Ehlers, who then passed it to Staal, who falling down to his right, flipped it over Carter Hart's glove- Mm-hmm...
7:48
or to actually touch the glove, and went in. From that point, he was seven to one. It dropped from... So when within that game itself, from 100 to 1 to 40 to 1 to seven to one. Then he scored again in game five.
7:59
Carolina went up three games to two. At, at this point, he's three to one after that goal in game five. Uh, didn't have a point last night, but that was enough to get him the Conn Smythe.
8:08
Again, oldest player to ever get it. Congratulations to Jordan Staal. Congratulations to the Carolina Hurricanes. They were the better hockey team, man.
8:15
And if you look at-- If you're a Vegas Golden Knights fan and you have a moment to breathe about it, now you can sort of put it all in perspective and say, "You know, we were, like, a game or two away from not even making the playoffs."
8:25
A point- Oh, totally... a point or two, right? Totally. So what a run it was. Just not meant to be in the end, and you still, you've been to three Stanley Cup Finals in nine years, and you, you got one cup.
8:38
But I do think that, um, you know... It's funny, I was talking to Jeff Huss, who used to run the RS Sports Book. He's a big Hartford Whalers guy back in the day. He's a big hockey guy.
8:46
And he was saying, he goes, "Well," he goes, "You know what the knock is on Torts up here?" Torts, who had this great record, John Tortorella.
8:52
He goes, "The knock that we always thought about him throughout his, uh, coaching career in the NHL was go up one to nothing and then pray. But he could do that whenever he had great goaltenders," right? Yeah.
9:03
And that, that, that was his sort of description of Tortorella's coaching career. I don't know how accurate that is or not, but you can't do it when your goaltender is just letting everything go by.
9:13
Yeah, having problems. Yeah. Yeah. 12, was it 12 goals in the last three games? Ouch. 24 in the entire series. Um, Carolina deserved it. So did the New York Knicks.
9:25
And we'll bleed over into the next segment about the Knicks. But the New York Knicks beat the San Antonio Spurs in five.
9:31
They, of course, do it famously on, uh, Saturday night on the Spurs' home court in a magical playoff run we are likely never to see again. They were down two to one to the Atlanta Hawks in the opening round series
9:47
and then proceeded to rattle off, well, win the next three games of that series, then went sweep, sweep. Um, at one point had gotten to 13 wins in a row when they won the first two against San Antone.
10:00
End up winning 15 of 16 playoff games to close it out. And more impressive, if it's even possible to be more impressive than that, 15 of 16 playoff games, Kelly. Mm-hmm. It's crazy.
10:11
Remember we were saying not only the greatest 11-game stretch or the greatest 12-game stretch or whatever it was, 13-game stretch in the history of the NBA, but the history of the NBA regular season or playoffs, and they're doing it in the playoffs and into the final.
10:22
The nature of those wins against the Spurs. Do we have the, uh, by the way, they win it 94 to 90. Do we have the, uh, the live win probability percentage one first by any chance, Danny? 'Cause this is an amazing one.
10:33
This is from Tomer Azarli. According to ESPN Analytics, in the four games the Spurs lost in the NBA Finals, so not including game three,
10:42
they had a 91.6% chance of winning game one, up 13 points midway through the third, a 72.8% chance of winning game two, up two points with a minute left in the fourth, a 99.6% chance of winning game four, up 20 points with 9:33 left in the fourth, and a 95.4% chance of winning game five, up 10 points with 7:54 left in the fourth.
11:04
The Spurs had 14-point leads or more in every single one of these games, including, of course, the 29-point lead in game four. Any one of these individually in previous years we would be talking about at length.
11:22
Mm-hmm. This was s, this was four of them, four of them in a row. Opta stats.
11:29
There have been 48 total five-game spans by teams in NBA history, regular or postseason, where they led by eight-plus points at the end of the first quarter in all five.
11:37
In 47 of the 48, the team had a winning record over the five games, all except the Spurs in the 2026 NBA Finals. They went one and four.
11:46
Oh, there's more of these superlative stats, and they're the only way to put it in proper context. And like with Vegas Golden Knights fans, if you're a Spurs fan or a Spurs backer, there's nothing you can say.
11:56
They didn't deserve it. Coming back on a numbers game in a recent [upbeat music] You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real, mindset alone doesn't get bets home.
12:06
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13:07
That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. We got tweets beating the book. Pickens Hard, "What an amazing weekend of sports betting. Turned $250 into $5,000. VSiN is the real deal." I don't know what he bet on, but good, good on him.
13:21
There you go. Carl Schul... Uh, let's see. Jesse Welch, pardon me. "All right, boys, the Canes and Knicks did us all a favor by wrapping up early so we can deep dive into the World Cup every day now.
13:29
Let's get it, Paul Carr." Well, we have Dallin Cuff on today to talk World Cup, and we will have Paul Carr on, uh, to discuss- Paul on tomorrow... Paul on tomorrow, that's right.
13:38
Uh, LosVegas514, "Yo, I guess the, uh, the gnats nor the humidity affected UFC 250. Every single fight ended in a knockout or TKO for the first time.
13:47
Besides the Marine band, the jet flyover, and the weird rich people in attendance, good job, UFC." [laughs] All right. Dave Ross was in attendance, by the way. I believe. [laughs] Oh, yeah. I think he was, right? Yeah?
13:58
Uh, Seanspfoxplays, "I really think the-" Wait, what? You're kidding, right? No, I think he was there, wasn't he? No, he wasn't. Was he? Yeah, I believe he- Dave Ross? He was not there.
14:05
Oh, I thought he had a picture on Twitter where he's like, "Oh, I'm here." Yeah, no. Oh, maybe I completely got knocked out of that. Okay. Did you watch any of it? He, he schooled me. No, I didn't watch any of it. Yeah.
14:14
Yeah. You know, you know, I don't know if it... I think it was just the fact that it was a Sunday and there was Stanley Cup going on, World Cup. There was just a lot going on. I, I checked in and out, in and out.
14:22
I was watch- It wasn't, didn't, didn't capture much of my attention... I was making live, making my, my way back from Carolina.
14:28
Seanspfoxplays, "I really think the NBA should recognize Keldon Johnson as the, as the Con Smythe Award too. If the NBA's gonna give the award to the player who's 22nd in points, all leagues should do the same."
14:38
He's, he's not happy that Jordan Poole won is what he's saying, I believe. Uh, Martin- I, I couldn't decide if he was going that way or Keldon Johnson anti-sixth man, uh, award.
14:47
[laughs] Martin- Not a good NBA playoffs for award winners, uh, uh, throughout the, uh, course of it No, that's true. Martin Bernstein, uh, "Good morning. Knicks winner now.
14:56
I have Knicks 20 to 1, White Sox 40 to 1, $10 to make 86.10. Thank you for VSiN for giving me these picks ideas." All right, Martin Bernstein. So I think he meant he has a Knicks White Sox parlay.
15:07
Is that what he's saying he has? Um- Yeah, I don't know... or maybe he had both of them. I don't know.
15:12
Uh, Chris Heath, "You'll have to ask Dallin if Spain is five times more likely to win the whole game that the first half because that's what the odds pred- than the first half because that's what the odds predict
15:22
based on the odds." All right. Gotti, Irv, Magic13, "Hart allowed 22 goals, not 24. If not for him last night, that game is, that game is 5-0, 6 to nothing. One goal was a breakaway, the other he had no chance on.
15:34
The Hart talk has been a bit much. He was slightly above average expectations through the playoff run by advanced metrics." Different approach on that. Different, a different viewpoint on Carter Hart.
15:42
Brian Point Shaffer, "Gil, after hearing your tone about Jalen Brunson last week, the time that you put some respect on him, um, he's a winner. I believe he's a top five player in this league."
15:51
Well, I don't know if he's a top five player, but Jalen Brunson was awesome. Mm-hmm. 45 points in game five, and all the OG Anunoby ticket holders had no chance after that. MVP.
16:00
[laughs] Yeah, man, what a- Yeah, Jalen Brunson had 45. The Kn- the rest of the Knicks had 49. Ja- by the way, Jalen Brunson is awesome.
16:08
The only thing that I was talking about was juxtaposed against OG for MVP in the finals. What I was saying was that Brunson's point total was so inefficient compared to that of a, of OG Anunoby.
16:21
At no point I've ever, uh, cast any hate on Jalen Brunson. That was the only context with which I was saying it. Jalen Brunson absolutely deserves MV- A- MVP, and by the way, he's married to a doctor, you know that?
16:30
[laughs] He's a doctor. Um- Oh, yeah, I mean- So who can dislike him for that? By the way, here's Taylor Snarr had the, uh, going peak in-game win probability for the Spurs in their finals losses.
16:39
He has a little different take on this. Look at this. Maybe this is more conclusive. Games one, two, four, and five, the Knicks four wins, 94.1%, 90.9%, 98.7%, 97.1%.
16:53
Those are the win probabilities for the S- for the Spurs at any given point at the peak points in those four games. You get the idea. It's in- it's insane what happened, and the real question, I guess, Kelly, is
17:05
what point, what, where does Knicks team of destiny stop and Spurs choke begin in all of this? Hmm. Because that really...
17:15
'Cause I used to say the Virginia Cavaliers, right, the Wahoos, when they won the, the, when they won March Madness the year after they lost to UMBC as the number one seed, I always used to say, Jeff Parlay and I, well, Jeff Parlay was, uh, Grover Cleveland, our producer, was the producer at the time, and we used to say, "That win over Auburn, that win over Purdue," like we throw around this, this phrase team of destiny.
17:36
But really the Virginia Cavaliers, they were a team of destiny. If, if any team ever was, that was it. This Knicks team is that as well. Yeah, absolutely.
17:43
Uh, it's, uh, fir- first of all, on the win probabilities things real quick, it's the [laughs] I don't know what's happened, but over the past, like five, six, seven years when we've seen these things, what, one of two things i- i- is, is, is correct here, Gil.
17:55
Either 98% chance win probabilities lose all the time seemingly, or these win probabilities are wildly off that these networks are doing. It's just incredible. Like how many times have me and you said that?
18:04
We're like- I have all-... we come in here the morning after. We're like 99.6% chance to win. If you, if you've listened to Number- a numbers game long enough, you know that I believe in win probabilities...
18:15
pretty sacredly when it comes to baseball 'cause it's more mechanical. Right. These two guys are on base, this is the score, this is the inning, that kind of thing.
18:23
Yes, it doesn't account for who the pitcher is and who the batter is, but generally speaking, that's a more mechanical measurement than it is second and 13 at their, at your own 17 with four minutes left in the third period.
18:36
[laughs] Right. Like, there's just too many variables. That's crazy. [laughs] But, but, but, you know, I think basketball- Oh, man... is more accurate than football is.
18:42
I think it's more ac- but I think it's in between the two. Yeah. I think it's in between the two- I do too... 'cause I think you can get, there's a lot of hot shooting streaks and stuff like that, right?
18:49
I, like, the Knicks, it's an incredible run. I think the w- question that you posed, I don't know that it's... Try to be fair here, because I think the Spurs, I don't, I don't know if I wanna go full choke.
19:04
I think the NBA Finals, and this is maybe the most amount of credit I can give the New York Knicks, is that they showed that the Spurs team still has a bit of a ways to go.
19:13
Even though that we w- even though that we can talk about every single one of these games being incredibly close, um, I think they, the New York Knicks exposed some things about the Spurs that even Oklahoma City couldn't.
19:26
And I, that, to me, that's an incredible, incredible compliment, pr- uh, uh, to what the Knicks did over, over that NBA Finals.
19:35
And it was really showing that is, do they, is Victor Wembanyama ready offensively to take over at the end of every single game? I'm not sure that he is. He's still really, really young.
19:46
I still think he's probably developed into the best player in the NBA, but all these guys need help. And then it is, like, we can talk about all these things are true.
19:56
I think easy path for the Knicks goen- getting through the playoffs, but you still get to the NBA Finals and you beat a team that you and I thought were gonna be right there as far as a, a championship contender.
20:06
And you beat them in five games. A- a- it, it's about as impressive as you could say. And I don't know about you, we weren't w- together watching the game on Friday night.
20:14
It was the first time ever, when that game got down under three minutes, I said, "Spurs don't have a chance." We've seen this time and time and time again.
20:22
Well, this is, this is why on Friday, what I was saying was the Spurs down three to one, right? S- two things can be true at the same time. Should feel as good as any team- Mm-hmm...
20:30
ever in a best of seven series, down three to one, because they led all of these games by- Yeah... 14 points or more. And then the dot dot dot was- Right... right?
20:40
On the other hand, they've also given up all of these, so especially a 29-point lead, why should they feel comfortable ever? And this was, the, what you just said is the greatest example of that.
20:50
Absolutely this was the inexperience of that. First of all, I think you're right. It's two things.
20:55
It's one, there was, because they didn't, they haven't, like, sort of anointed Dylan Harper the guy at the end of games- Mm-hmm... because they were unwilling to do that,
21:05
that's, the problem is they have no guy to go to at the end. And the second thing is, yes, the sphincter was tight. When they got up all those points, they couldn't hit a shot- Yeah... to save their lives.
21:15
So there's, it, there's a l- it's a bit of both. I know Knicks fans don't wanna- Yeah... don't wanna acknowledge the Spurs choking part of it. Right, right, right. It's all that, it's all Knicks, but part of it was that.
21:23
I think the part with the Knicks, so, like, the, okay, the, and, and lastly on the Spurs, maybe thank God we don't have more games to talk about them, 'cause our guy, even Dylan Harper, he had some chances at that end of that last game.
21:32
Oh, boy, he missed some, he missed some bad shots. Darren Fox just continues to pull up from mid-range and brick, brick, brick. A- and the Knicks, like, the Knicks go, I wanna, I, like, Jalen Brunson's awesome.
21:44
He's al- he's been awesome. I think for the past few years, Jalen Brunson you've had the least amount of questions about on this team, except for maybe what he can do defensively.
21:53
I am a believer still in the small guard point. I think it's very tough to win wi- with a small guard being your leader.
22:00
Steph Curry's really the only other example that we've seen with that, and I don't believe those guys are on the same level. How could you not love Jalen Brunson?
22:07
Uh, y- you can't- Who we, who we saw at Summer League playing for the Mavericks. Yeah. They discarded him. He, he gives up really $100 million to have the team approve a run him. Absolutely.
22:15
It- Uh, a plus 283 point differential for the Knicks, the best in a single postseason in NBA history. Uh, not to cut you off, Kelly, but I just wanna get these in. Mm-hmm.
22:23
Pounding The Rock, astonishing stats about the Spurs this season in 106 games total, regular season and playoffs. Never lost more than two games in a row. This is before the NBA Finals.
22:32
Never lost more than two games in a row. Only lost by more than 15 points twice, OKC in January and the Knicks in March.
22:38
Uh, and then only team with two undefeated months, October and February, all for naught once they got... And this is, to me, this is the one that- Mm-hmm... just really contextualizes it the best.
22:49
Roger Sherman, good job by you. "Craziest stat for me," he says. "The Knicks had the number one, number three, and number five biggest comeback wins in NBA [laughs] Finals history in the same finals." It's incredible.
23:03
That's all you need to know. What do you sp- and again, add the Spurs 19 to 1 ticket on Christmas Day or whatever you had the Spurs at to the pile of great bets that simply weren't meant to be. That's betting sometime.
23:16
Tip of the cap to the New York Knicks. Congratulations to their fans. First championship in 53 years. Greg Peterson on the other side. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:25
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23:35
Don't forget about the Sharp Plays, unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting info, and alerts directly from the pros. Scan the QR code for more at sharpplays.com.
23:46
We get tweets beating the book. Shawn's Fox plays, he is, uh, still not happy about Jordan Stall winning Conn Smythe. He said, "They single-handedly changed an award for the last 50 years.
23:55
He must have been first in goals scored to win." No, that's Stankoven. "He must have been first in assists." No, no, that's Blake. They changed the league to he deserves to win it to he earned it. Hmm.
24:05
Changed the award to that, he says. Uh, Michael Burns is happy about it, though. He said, "I was late to the Stall party, but got 100 to 1. I'll take it. Big thanks to JD." That's our buddy Jonathan Davis.
24:15
Good on you, Michael Burns It should be pointed out also, because I cited this stat on numerous occasions, that the 1988 Edmonton Oilers had the record in the 16-win playoff format ever since that was installed for the best playoff run win-loss record, 16 and 2.
24:31
They won the Stanley Cup in 1988 with a 16 and 2 record. These Carolina Hurricanes were 16 and 3. I mean, that's how dominant they were. Pretty darn good. Pretty darn good.
24:40
Kelly, uh, this is from Shrek McPhee, "How is Wemby 7'5" and has no game with his back to the basket? Best player in the NBA? Hell no." Defensively probably. And Mark Gupta, uh, "Wemby reminds me of early Jordan.
24:54
MJ was taking a beating, wearing out, but realized he had to get his body ready for extended playoff runs. He went on a ridiculous fitness program, added muscle, et cetera. Will Wemby do the same?" That's a great point.
25:03
That's a great point. You have to go out- I've got... That's very fair. Yeah. I mean, his fatigue was definitely an issue. Kevin- And, like, you know, last I checked, defense is part of the game, right, Gil?
25:12
Uh, I did, yeah, I'm checking. Yeah, that's correct. That checks out. Kevin Downs, my brother from another orange and blue sky, "Don't underestimate coaching experience in Brunson. Can't wait for the parade."
25:22
Hey, I'm not the only one to have underestimated the Knicks. Man- Good on them...
25:26
real quick, just to finish my one thought from there, Brunson's awesome, but, like, Brunson, I feel like, is the one part that we knew was awesome.
25:32
To me, this w- this story is about the development of Karl-Anthony Towns and what Mike Brown did with this team. They're great. And that OG Anunoby shot, like, 56% through the playoffs. He was incredible.
25:44
A- and then, and then Mikal Bridges. Mikal Bridges, who fell off towards the end. W- what's the quote, Gil? Winning means you never have to say you're sorry. Five first-round draft picks. It doesn't matter anymore.
25:54
All, all worth it. All worth it. New York Knicks championship. All worth it. They will always, for me, for the rest of time, they will always be remembered as a team that no deficit was too big to come back from.
26:04
It was incredible. It was incredible. What are you, what are you saying? In, in the clutch like that- Incredible...
26:08
you do have, you have captain clutch, Jalen Brunson, I mean, who becomes, what, your all-time leading sc- uh, point per s- point per scorer average in the fourth quarter of NBA finals. It's incredible.
26:18
Greg Peterson joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Uh, you can follow him on Twitter at gunit_81. One of the most entertaining Twitter feeds across the entire planet Earth- Yeah... I would have to say.
26:30
Greg joins us now, uh, uh, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, talks some Major League Baseball. Greg, I won't belabor the, uh, the Twitter feed part of things 'cause we're obviously talking about your dating life.
26:39
But I noticed, uh, it, the saga continues.
26:41
Um, my only question here today about this is, do you ever consider, and people can go to your Twitter feed and sort of get the, the latest details on it when they want to, do you ever consider perhaps changing up the pool or the methods for which you are trying to get dates?
26:58
Going to different places, perhaps not doing it online. What- whatever the case is. All the time. Like, I... You don't know how much I could, wish I could meet someone outside of an app.
27:10
But that said, as we know in lovely Las Vegas, that can be very, very difficult. I had someone suggest, "You should go to casinos to try to pick someone up."
27:19
I don't think that that's where I wanna be- Well, that's probably not good advice... meeting people to hook up or anything like that. That probably would not be great, to say the least.
27:28
I've had someone offer to go to church or something like that. Yes. The challenge isn't finding a date over at church. The challenge is finding someone under the age of 55 at all at church, male or female.
27:39
[laughs] So I've been trying. All right. Like, trust me, I have been trying, and I look at all these. I'm like, man, uh, there's just nobody to be met there.
27:48
Like, you always hear about these stories about people, how they met in the grocery store and everything like that. Where's my happy ending? The grocery store. Yes.
27:56
You're, you're praying for it to be somewhere out, some way there. It hasn't been there yet. And I do mix up a lot of different apps. I'm on, like, five or six different of them. I'm always looking for different sources.
28:09
Right now, we're just having a little bit of a struggle. So I took myself, I treated myself to Texas Roadhouse last week. There you go. Made me feel great. There you go. Greg Peterson, everybody.
28:18
Always like the, uh, w- super bad line. You don't wanna meet a chick in a bar, man. You gotta go, you gotta go to other places like a spin class, farmer's market, pumpkin patch, given the time of year.
28:27
[laughs] Pumpkin patch. Well, Greg, listen, if it, maybe, maybe one day it will require a change of venue. Do you think you'll have to move one day to find true love? Will that, will that be how it happens?
28:38
Uh, I don't know. We shall see on that, because I never really had success in the great state of Wisconsin either. Hmm. Ironically enough, my best triumphs were when I was in the city of Portland. And- Best triumphs...
28:48
Portland is a- Mm... very interesting city, to say the least. I was a good one-man wolf pack out there in Portland. So- Wow. [laughs]... maybe we need to just go back to Portland, Oregon. Okay, okay.
29:00
Well, we all wish you luck. We're all rooting for you, that's for sure. Let's get to the, uh, the Greg Peterson Fab Five, beginning with the Marlins and the Phillies.
29:09
This just in, the Marlins won the race to 10 in the month of June. Like everybody- Congratulations... like everybody saw coming.
29:16
They have a two-win lead in terms of the, uh, the market for the most wins in the month of June. They're 10 and 2, for God sakes, uh, taking on their division rival, Phillies. What are you playing here?
29:27
Oh, they have been tearing it up in this month. And that two-game lead, I think, is gonna be dwindling after today because they've got Ryan Gusto on the mound.
29:35
Know by Gusto the fact that he's got a 6 ERA in nine innings thus far this season.
29:39
And before you say that's a small sample size, had a 5.57 ERA between the Marlins and the Astros last year, was giving up a home run an half per nine innings. Zach Wheeler is also giving up more contact than in the past.
29:51
His strikeouts per nine rate is as low as it has been since 2020. His fielding independent is more than a full point higher than his ERA.
29:59
And I've just always noticed this with the Phillies, they always do such a better job with their offense at home rather than away from home. That dates all the way back to last year.
30:07
As that Phillies team has been a little bit rough on offense. We saw that over the weekend when they got one whopping hit against Jakub Vizcarrondo. They got shut out yesterday.
30:15
I think this is a nice bounce-back spot for them. Took the Phillies on the run line at right around even money, and I'm in on that total of seven after the over.
30:22
Royals are taking on the Nationals at Nationals Park in DC tonight.
30:26
Um- You know, we're not quite at the halfway point of the Major League Baseball season, but without question, one of the biggest surprises juxtaposed against what we thought pre-flop, what the market thought pre-flop, are these Washington Nationals, who are 37 and 35, uh, through 72 games.
30:41
Conversely, the Royals, there's a lot of baseball folks who thought the Royals were gonna be good. Not really. You're on the Nats again tonight.
30:49
Yeah, I was not a believer in the Royals coming into the season, and looks like they're gonna be starting Mitch Spence, who, he just made a triple A start a few days ago, so he's gonna be on short rest trying to, if he able to give the Royals anything whatsoever.
31:02
You're probably gonna be getting a lot of the bullpen, and that's not a good thing. For the Royals, they are a bottom five team in terms of bullpen ERA.
31:08
For the Washington Nationals, number one in terms of run creation this year with 5.4 runs per game in. I'm a believer now in Jhoulys Torres. He's got about a 3.70 ERA. The fielding independent is even lower.
31:19
He's getting over nine strikeouts per nine innings, keeping the ball in the yard. Royals offense, dead last in terms of run creation away from home.
31:26
Getting, like, minus 130, minus 135 on the Nationals, sign me up for that money line. All right. Um, I mentioned the Marlins were the best team thus far in the month of June. The worst team has been the Cincinnati Reds.
31:36
They're three and nine with a minus 26 run differential. Uh, the, the great days of March, April 2026 are far behind them.
31:44
The Mets are at Cincinnati at the Great American Small Park today, where the Reds are a minus 135 favorite.
31:50
Yep, and I think that this is a good bounce-back spot for the Reds, because for one, the Mets have been a good bounce-back spot for a lot of teams thus far this season, and they're gonna get Tobias Myers, who's gonna start here for the Mets.
32:01
He's got a 4.05 ERA, north of a 450 fielding dependent. David Peterson should be coming in after that, and I love the last name.
32:08
Don't love the fact that he's got a 5.75 ERA backed up by a bottom 10 offense in terms of run creation, and Chase Burns has really been one of the few bright spots here for the Reds recently.
32:17
10 half strikeouts per nine innings, sub 2.25 ERA. I think that he's a red stopper after it was a rough series for them against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Reds are right around minus 135. Like them on the money line.
32:28
Padres and Cardinals. Our old friend Lucas Giolito against Dustin May. The total is eight and a half. Yep, I think that it's gonna be mayday for runs.
32:37
I'm gonna take a shot on the under, because with Dustin May, well, he's got an ERA of a 4.22. Fielding dependent is more around a 3.25. Swing and miss stuff is starting to come back for him.
32:47
He's dealt with a lot of injuries throughout his career. For those that remember, he was a big time up-and-coming prospect back when he was with the LA Dodgers quite a few years ago. Seems to be putting it all together.
32:56
Don't have a lot of faith in Lucas Giolito, but I do like that Padres bullpen. Top three team in terms of bullpen ERA. They've got great depth there, and Padres out of 30 teams, they are 30th in terms of run creation.
33:08
They just have not been able to put up runs on the board. Fernando Tatis Jr. has two more home runs than the three of us. Not a place where we want to be, so eight and a half total, I like the under.
33:17
And then two teams that by any measure have been disappointing record-wise at this point in the season based on where we thought they might be before the season started.
33:24
Tigers are at the Astros, with the Astros a slight favorite. Yep, I'm taking plus money here on the Tigers. Would like to be able to get a little bit more than, like, plus 110, which I'm seeing right now.
33:35
I was able to find a plus 120 overnight personally with Troy Melton. He's been a nice surprise here for the Tigers. Not getting a lot of swing and miss, but he's been able to keep the ERA below a three.
33:45
Has good command in Kai-Wei Tang. He has been a guy that's been giving up four-plus walks per nine innings for this Astros team that has a bottom 10 bullpen in terms of ERA.
33:54
So with the Tigers, being able to get plus money on them, plus they're getting back the likes of Gleyber Torres, Gary Carpenter, who have dealt with injury. Took a shot here on the Tigers on the money line.
34:03
Greg Peterson's Fab Five. Marlins-Phillies over seven and a half. Nats over the Royals. Reds over the Mets. Padres-Cardinals under eight and a half. And the Tigers as a slight dog over the Astros.
34:14
Greg, thank you and good luck with all things, if you know what I mean. Thank you, and I'll probably mute. [laughs] Greg, Greg, Greg Peterson, everybody. Country Club next on The Numbers Game.
34:25
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:40
Back on The Numbers Game live from Circle Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Finlin still to come on the show today. Um, looking forward to Dallin Cuff, talk some World Cup, uh, with us. Hell yeah.
34:52
Watched a lot of soccer- Me too, man... since the, uh, beginning of the tournament. Um- Let's go, Dragons... been a great, been a great tournament so far. Fun to watch.
35:00
Um, we'll talk to Dallin, um, and then a little later on in the show, Adam Burke, Wes Reynolds. We'll talk, uh, US Open golf with Wes, um, baseball with, with Adam. Um,
35:11
sh- I just wanna say before we get into Country Clubbing, I was, I went to the Highlands, North Carolina this weekend- Yes, how was it?... for a wedding.
35:16
I was Vegas to Charlotte, Charlotte to Asheville, then drove 90 minutes from Asheville to the Highlands. Jeez. And then turned right around after the wedding, the next day, did the same thing back. Right.
35:27
Um, I don't know how I got back here, 'cause there was weather.
35:29
I somehow, like, you know, the pilot from Asheville to Charlotte was like, "We may have, we might have to turn this around because they might not give us clearance 'cause of the weather."
35:35
Anyway, somehow we got clearance. But I just, I just wanna say to the good people of, uh, Charlotte, and this has been, you and I were talking about this a little off air. The Charlotte Airport is always mayhem.
35:46
It's something. Yep. Mayhem.
35:48
So I had, uh, the, both the, my connections, this is not Charlotte Airport's fault, but my connections required me sprinting through the airport twice from one terminal to ter- two or three terminals over.
35:59
The way back, I barely made it. Like, I just got it. Group six, I was like, "Hey, here I am." [laughs] Right? Um, but I just, I'm amazed at how packed that airport is every time I've ever been in it. That's crazy.
36:09
I, I mean, you, you get the, you get the usuals, I think that make sense, like LAX or JFK that are nutty. Yeah. You know? But the, it's these, it, Atlanta and Charlotte, the, you know, the, the, the hubs, right?
36:20
Which it's great because it gives you more flight options, which is nice. But yeah, the downside if, is if you don't like airports already like me, oh boy, is that a living nightmare. Wow.
36:29
Like 10 million people all rushing to get somewhere. Dodging people. Using swim moves on people to get to your treadmill Oh, you gotta, you gotta use the swim moves. Yep. I had a couple swim moves in there.
36:38
I just, there was a spin move in there Out of the way. Yeah. Um, spin move, yep. I, I will say though, I believe, I believe, hey, really good Mexican restaurant I ended up at one p- one time in the Charlotte airport.
36:49
I don't know why I remember that, but- I had no, I had no time. I had no t- I couldn't stop and eat... I remember that. I don't know why, but I do. Anyway, good on you, Charlotte. You got the job done. Appreciate it.
36:58
And, and the two kids are married, so congratulations. Hey. Hey. Did you get hiking at all? Did you hit the trails? No time. [laughs] You really didn't have any time. No time. You, you red-eyed Friday night, right?
37:08
I did. Yeah, you really had no time. El ojo rojo, as the kids say. You're a good man. Thank you. If it's probably a wedding, I would've been like, "Yeah, sounds fun. I just don't really have time to do it."
37:17
Ah, know the father forever. I mean, that's a, it's r- it's a day blitz, like you said. Yeah. I mean, it is fly... I mean, you did multiple flights too. Yeah, man. Let's go country club and let's do it.
37:26
[upbeat music] Aw, yeah. So, uh, it's grass court season on the tennis tour, and, uh, let's just say
37:44
it's been interesting. So I, I haven't, you know, I didn't do anything really most of last week, and then over the weekend I started giving out. Saw a couple bets, yeah. Started okay.
37:51
Then yesterday though in 0 and 2 where Taylor Fritz against Ben Shelton went 2 of 11 on break points. We deserved better. Mm. That wasn't fun. And then this morning only had one play on Maya Joint at plus 150.
38:05
This is in Nottingham. You like Nottingham, don't you? Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Maya Joint plus 150 against, uh, Yulia Starodubtseva, or Starodubtseva I believe it's pronounced, from Ukraine.
38:15
Joint wins the first set tiebreaker 10-8, so I'm all pumped. Then I'm sitting here doing the show here in the first hour. She's up a break in the second set. She's serving for the match. Gak.
38:28
Loses the second set and is now, loses the second set and is now down a break early in the third set. Not fun, people. Not fun. All right, but you're not done yet. No, I'm not done yet, but it's, it's not looking good.
38:39
I thought you were done. No, no, no. Um, but the, yeah, so, so in other words, what's my feeling about all this? Uh, grass court numbers look good.
38:47
These, these, they're just not going my way here early, so let's get these out of the way before we get to the good stuff and we're really betting a whole bunch. Uh, Wimbledon, which happens here later this month.
38:57
Excuse me, uh, when does Wim- when, when actually does Wimbledon start? Let me- Two weeks? Yeah, Wimbledon's, yeah, June 29th. Yeah. I didn't know. Wanted to make sure that it did start this month.
39:06
June 29th, uh, the fortnight at Wimbledon starts June 29th, the grass slam. So just two weeks away from now.
39:14
Jannik Sinner, remember Carlos Alcaraz is not playing, a- again, with a wrist injury, sitting this one out, so Jannik Sinner at minus 200 is your favorite, which is right about where he should be.
39:25
Novak Djokovic still going after that 25th Grand Slam title, six to one, followed by French Open champion Sascha Zverev. Wow, we can actually say that. Uh, nine to one. Everybody else, 20 to one or longer.
39:38
And if I'm looking at the 20, first of all, all correct, right? Sinner should be minus 200. But if you- If-... if you ask the inevitable question, "Hey, what about the 20 to ones or longer?"
39:46
Is there any name there that sticks out to you? Um, I don't know. Is Ben Shelton ever gonna show up deep in one of these? Is that gonna happen here at some point? Is this the one? Um- And A- Alcaraz is out?
39:59
Alcaraz is out. Out, out. Okay. Out, out. Yes. O-U-T.
40:04
So what do you feel, I gu- I, I guess my biggest question actually is what do you feel about this Sinner price compared to what we were staring at, uh, at the French Open? I feel it's commensurate with that.
40:14
You know, S- Sinner ended up being, we had, we had Sinner at minus 120, but it ended up being, what, minus 350. Yeah. Drew, Drew was saying it should be $4 at the French. Yeah. Okay, those were his numbers.
40:25
I, I mean, I think Jannik Sinner, you could justify anywhere in the, in the twos to me on this. Um, just gotta avoid major heat, right? And long matches. Now we know- That's his kryptonite...
40:36
we know clay's a great surface for Alcaraz, so that was the big swing there. I- is Sinner surface-wise, is this, is this better for him than clay? Um, he, I mean, he's an all-court player.
40:48
Yeah, he's pretty all around, right? Yeah, l- he's, he's the best on everything along with, with Carlitos.
40:54
But you know, just in terms of, in terms of the slams won between those two guys, just for, uh, just for the historical, you know, r- record of those things, it was
41:07
Sinner who was winning the gr- uh, was winning hard courts, and Carlos was winning clay and grass in between for a while, and then Jannik broke through by winning Wimbledon last year. Um, so
41:23
I mean, all these, all these, the great players are all har- are all, you know, all court in the end. Mm-hmm.
41:29
Even though we know Rafa's the king of clay, he won multiple slams on other, you know, on other surfaces as well. And, uh, same for, same for Novak, same for Carlos now, same for Jannik now.
41:42
So you really can't pinpoint him to one. He's still the best on all.
41:45
On the women's side, where Iga Swiatek is the defending champion, Sabalenka, Aryna Sabalenka's plus 275, Elena Rybakina plus 350, there's Iga at four to one, Mirra Andreeva, French Open champ, at eight to one, and Coco at eight to one.
41:58
This is a sh- a surefire free-for-all. Yeah, this guy, this is wide open, right? Because Amanda Anisimova is gonna be live at 11 to one, and she got the finals, and before Iga bageled her in the finals last year.
42:08
Iga Jovic, Danny Higgins' favorite tennis player, she's 25 to one. Has Pegula gotten too long? I don't think she's too long. Okay. I feel, I kind of feel like the Jessie Pegula peak- Uh-oh. Uh-oh...
42:25
may have happened. I, m- I don't wanna do that to her, but I feel like she got everything out of her talents, and I just don't know if she's going to ever get as deep into these slams as she has in the past.
42:38
By the way, that's no knock. She'd get to the semis, and it won't be as deep as she's gotten, right? Um, you know, in, in some of these slams, 'cause she got to the finals before, uh, at the US Open.
42:46
Marta Kostyuk is in there. She's been great. Maddie Keys. By the way, I should point out, Taylor Fritz on the other side, on the men's side- I had him yesterday against Ben Shelton. His grass numbers are insanely good.
42:56
I think Taylor Fritz, as he comes back from injury, he actually might make a good Wimbledon run. Hmm. Okay. He's an, he's a name that I think I'll probably back a lot at Wimbledon.
43:05
But, uh, on the ladies' side, it's a free-for-all, man. You, you could tell me any one of those, those players that I just mentioned wins it, and I would not...
43:12
I, I'd be, I kind of would be shocked if Mirra Andreeva won it. But everybody else, Sabalenka, Rybakina, Swiatek, Gauff, Anisimova, Jovic, I wouldn't be surprised. Maddie Keys has one more in her. I don't know.
43:25
So it's a total free-for-all. That's where I stand right now, two weeks out from Wimbledon, the grass slam. How do you handicap, uh, Taylor Fritz going through a breakup, you know?
43:35
Very interesting, because, uh, Zach Cohen, by the way, knows more about this. By the way, it's Mitch Michaels who invites us on his podcast. He's the real guy who knows all this tennis dating stuff.
43:43
But it's unclear if he dumped her- Yeah... Morgan Riddle, or if she dumped him, and then she put out a 33-bullet point manifesto- Oh... of what her next man will not be like.
43:54
[laughs] And one of them was he can't gamble, which makes me think that Taylor Fritz was a gambler. Yeah, it was, uh, never an athlete again, not a gambler again. Yeah. It was, it was a lot of that. You know what?
44:04
She could, sh- she could you know what. It- Really not an athlete? He made you, dude. This is good. I feel a lot more sympathetic, and I'm rooting for Taylor Fritz a lot more after that. Public, "Hi, I'm an influencer.
44:16
I globbed onto you like a barnacle on a boat for years, and now I'm gonna act like I don't wanna date an athlete again." Well, got you kind of where you are. Sorry. Oh, man. Plenty of US Open to talk this week.
44:28
Shout out, though, to, uh, Bud Cauley, who we brought up a couple weeks ago on this show. Uh, takes home the RBC Canadian Open. Bud Cauley. Yeah.
44:35
Remember we were talking about his crazy tee to green numbers that tournament a couple weeks ago? Yes, I do. And he lost, like, 12 strokes putting. Turns it around this week, man. First win of his, his career.
44:46
239th start, incredible story. Had a bad car accident, uh, about eight years ago. Ki- came back from that.
44:53
If you've ever heard tour players talk about this guy, so always been one of those guys, Justin Thomas a big one, of watch out, he's one of the best out here you just don't know about.
45:02
Finally gets his first win ever yesterday. And we'll talk with, uh, Wes Reynolds later about the US Open at Shinnecock Hills later today. Scottie Scheffler, +455 to win it. Followed by- Getting shorter...
45:12
followed by Rory at +950 and Jon Rahm at +1025. We will talk with him later. Dallin Cuff on the World Cup next on The Numbers Game.
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