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Jun 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | June 15, 2026 | Hour 3
A Numbers Game | June 15, 2026 | Hour 3
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45:21
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat rock music] This is VSiN, the sports betting network. The numbers told the story. They always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:17
Hour number three of a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, SiriusXM channel 158. Gil Alexander, Kelly Midlan- Hello... with a little bit of breaking news here.
0:29
You know, not earth-shattering, but- Yeah... in the NBA it's pretty big.
0:32
Shams Charania reporting that the Chicago Bulls are finalizing the hire of Portland Trail Blazers interim head coach Tiago Splitter as the franchise's new head coach.
0:42
Sources telling ESPN Splitter succeeds Billy Donovan as the Bulls coach after stepping into the head job and excelling in Portland last season. And it's that last phrase that I would like to ask you about, Mr.
0:51
Midlan, which is Portland didn't wanna hire Tiago Splitter as their head coach? I, I mean, Gil, it's been kind of a story all, all season here towards the end of the regular season, into the playoffs.
1:01
Tom D- Dundon, right, I believe is how you say his name, the ow- owner of the Carolina Panthers taking over, uh, majority control of, of the Blazers.
1:09
And, uh, coming in with a very, [tsks] I don't know what the right word is, financially conservative approach. [laughs] Okay. Okay.
1:18
Uh, AKA cheap, 'cause there was a lot of ugly reports coming out of this organization, and it, it-- there were reports that this was being discussed about a, an extension for Tiago Splitter, 'cause what more else could you ask this guy to do this year?
1:31
Lead this team to the playoffs after having to deal with all of the Chauncey Billups fallout from the beginning of the season. Um, it, it's pretty, pretty wild story, uh, b- just for what the P- Blazers did.
1:44
And then, hey, Bulls, it's, it's kinda interesting what's going on there.
1:47
And I, I don't know how Splitter was viewed by the rest of the NBA, but obviously with enough respect from some other teams to be given a shot here. Bulls give him a shot. Uh, we'll see.
1:56
I, I'm very en- I'm actually more interested in the, in the Portland side, though, here. What does that mean for them? What have they been thinking about and planning on going forward?
2:05
Yeah, a 42 and 39 regular season record. Does that sound right for Tiago Splitter? Mm-hmm. Uh, as the coach of the Portland Trail Blazers. Obviously, uh, crapped out in the, uh, playoffs against the Spurs in five.
2:17
But, um, yeah, Portland apparently not getting it, uh, either not interested or, or didn't make a deal with their interim head coach, and now he is the coach, Splitter is, of the Chicago Bulls, succeeding Billy Donovan.
2:30
Yeah, it was like, you know, that opening round of the playoffs, I think there, it was when the reports were s- kinda spilling out that they were lowballing him, and there was- Yeah. Yep...
2:38
some people not very happy about that, as I think would make a lot of sense. Wonder if any Blazers will tweet their feelings out about this. Yeah. You know? Never know about that.
2:46
I mean, that's a, i- it's a, that's very interesting and, and you don't know how ownership changes are gonna s- change the futures of teams, right? But there's a lot of talent, a lot of pieces on that Portland team.
2:57
Um, whether it means r- rolling with the, the majority of these guys into next season, uh, or making a big trade, which they have very much been rumored to do so here.
3:06
Uh, let's take a look at the odds to win the National League Cy Young. It's our favorite awards market. Um, and I think most people's favorite awards market.
3:14
Jacob Mieziorowski of the Brewers is now your favorite, which I have always felt he should be. Remember when he was plus-450? That was my recommendation.
3:23
Minus-140 on The Miz, who is coming off, [laughs] I mean, this kid, uh, a complete game shutout where he gave up one hit against the Phillies, 15 strikeouts, zero walks, facing the minimum.
3:41
Is that good? Yeah, that's pretty good. That's up there with one of the great performances of all time. Just that one hit. If, if that hit doesn't happen, it is maybe the greatest of all time.
3:51
By the way, here's the slash against him is 140, 216, 194. That's a 140 batting average this year against him, 216 OBP, 194 slugging percentage against him. His ERA is 1.34.
4:06
Uh, his K rate is 39.8%. And he just recorded the fastest pitch ever clocked, and he has an insane amount of pitches that are over, right, that are in the, in the, you know, over 100 range.
4:22
What is it, 58 pitches, I think, in his last game were over 100 miles per hour? Yeah, it was something like that. Yep. I don't wanna say it out loud. Is his arm gonna fall off at some point? This, this kid is amazing.
4:32
This kid is amazing. Um, and then there's Christopher Sanchez, who put together the third-longest scoreless [laughs] inning streak in the history of Major League Baseball.
4:43
Only Oral Hershiser and Don Drysdale had longer scoreless inning streaks. Sanchez plus-220 for all of his efforts behind The Miz. Sanchez a 1.54 ERA, so now.20 worse, if you will, than Miz's.
5:01
But Sanchez's advanced stats, he's got a 1.85 fielding independent. Um, his expected ERA is higher, though, 2.78. I was mentioning, again, you know, some of these guys with their unsustainable numbers.
5:14
Sanchez had, you know, a, a little bit of regression in terms of the strand rate and the home run to fly ball rate and the BABIP. Actually, the BABIP was the other direction. He was a little unfortunate on the BABIP.
5:25
Shohei Ohtani, who's 12/1, he's the real guy who we're, we're talking about his numbers have to regress. Remember, his ERA was 0.74 last time we talked about it.
5:35
Well, he gave up three earned runs in six and two-thirds against the Pirates at Pittsburgh the other day. And so many of his unsustainable stats really manifested, right? They came home to roost a little bit.
5:50
Now it's a 1.06 ERA. The BABIP went from a sub-200 to 206. Batting average on balls in play, just for those curious The major league average is right around, like, 298-ish, something like that.
6:04
Sometimes it's, some years it goes to 290 at the, at the, the lowest. But if you are operating in, like, the 220s, you are having this unbelievably fortunate season.
6:14
Again, batting average on balls in play, the theory being that once the ball leaves your, your hand, you have no real control over the outcome at that point, and there's an expected batting average based on, based on things.
6:27
And, and in Shohei's case, it was sub-200. Mm. Like, you would never see that. Now it's, what? What'd I say? 206. By the way, his strand rate dropped to 88.2%. It was over 90. It's like, you can't sustain that, right?
6:44
Uh, 5.3% home run to fly ball rate. That went up a little bit. His expected ERA is 2.62. So again, really good. No one's saying Shohei's bad at baseball,
6:53
but you're never gonna be that good, where your BABIP is that low and your strand rate is that high. Skeens, and, and these are the other, and the other names here, and I just wanna point these out.
7:03
These guys seemingly have no chance. Paul Ske- Paul Skeens... Let me get the, uh, let me get the, uh, updated number on Skeens. Yeah. Is it e- Paul- Is it easy as this though, Gil?
7:13
'Cause I'm looking at a w- a record, which I know matters so little for starting pitchers, but he's 6 and 6. I- I- it is kind of that easy if you believe- Right?... the Tom Tango formula.
7:24
He's 6 and 6, but he's got a 2.84 ERA, which in this year of comp- of, of competition for this award is j- might as well be 4.0. Right, right. Right? Um, Yamamoto's ERA is 2.52. Um, Wheeler's is 2.22.
7:41
Burns is 2.14. Sale is 2.30. Harrison, the interesting thing is Kyle Harrison. Mm. Kyle Harrison is 40 to 1. As we complete everything on the left column here, Kyle Harrison is 40 to 1.
7:55
Will Hill, our buddy and, uh, frequent Veesand host, Will Hill, had a very interesting point about Kyle Harrison. He blew up here in Vegas. He gave up eight earned runs in two and a third
8:07
in the bandbox that is the Aviator Stadium in Summerlin. So his ERA shot up all the way to 2.72, and I'm wondering if, and Will's comment was, I'll sort of paraphrase.
8:19
Basically, if all things were equal at the end, let's say Sanchez and Miz come back down to Earth a little bit. Mm. Let's say Shohei does. Let's say everybody else does.
8:28
Let's say Kyle Harrison just soars the rest of the way, and it's an all things being equal thing. Will voters look at that Vegas game and throw it out? Hm.
8:39
And I don't know that voters are that sharp, so I don't know the answer to that question. You're right, yeah. But it's an interesting point.
8:44
Like, do you get, you get penalized 'cause you had to play one of these games here? It's also, like, I wouldn't, I wouldn't personally remove it completely, but it would, it would be a factor. Right.
8:55
But like you said, I don't know that voters would think- It's 1,000 degrees, for God's sakes Yeah, I don't know if voters would think of that much. Uh, okay.
9:00
So c- But, but right now it's Sanchez and Miz, and, and, and those, those odds currently reflect exactly what it should be.
9:06
This has gone from a scrum to those two guys really just being unassailably the two best- Yeah... options. Yeah, that's, that's all I was really gonna ask you. Yeah.
9:15
'Cause I, I think that, I mean, what was it, all of 10 days ago we were talking about, like, how amazing this race was? Two weeks. Was it two weeks ago?
9:22
It doesn't even feel like it was all two weeks ago where we were talking about five, six guys. I, so I mean, like, I think, okay, Shohei. We can easily use the MVP argument, right? Mm-hmm. He's, he's gonna win MVP. Yep.
9:33
Okay, he's drifted back here. Take him out of this race. Paul Skeens, he's six and six on the season. Yeah, sorry. Not your year. Yep. So are you down to... I- is, uh, is it just down to these two, or- Yes...
9:42
or would it be if you're gonna look further down, look further, further down and say you have a long- And I always wanna say, this is June 15th. Right. We're not even at the All-Star break.
9:52
And again, I use those examples. July 31st, Base Winner came on here, Mark Borger came on here. Hey, Robbie Ray's 100 to 1. Mm-hmm. You should bet him. Uh, there are example.
10:00
Chris Sale was gonna be a Cy Young, a shoo-in for the Red Sox one year until he wasn't. So you never wanna s- by the calendar, this shouldn't be over. But these guys, these two guys are doing insane things.
10:13
Like, I mean, Sanchez, third longest scoreless streak of all time. That's incredible. And you're not even the favorite, and I don't think you should be. Yeah. 'Cause Mizeurowski, like, I, I...
10:24
This kid is an alien what he's doing. A 39.8% K rate is, you know, a- as elite as it gets. But you j- [laughs] you just had a game against the Phillies. The Phillies, by the way, not, you know,
10:37
not the worst team in baseball. Yeah, right. Yeah. Uh, Phillies, 15 Ks, no walks. Every pitch is, like, 103 or 104, and you face the minimum. It- One hit in a squ- uh, it's just incredible what he's doing. It's wild.
10:54
And the Phillies, like, e- they're not even on, th- they don't, they have no idea what's coming at them. It's wild. It's- It's incredible to watch...
10:58
it's also, like, one of the reasons I feel, I feel like you and I love tracking these awards markets. I love it. I mean, it's just, how much has this changed in three, in, in the past few weeks?
11:06
It's wild, and I'm with you. It feels like it's kind of- Uh... down to these two guys.
11:09
And I should point out my play on Mason Miller, who I got at 40 to 1, is all the way down to 75 to 1 because Mason Miller had the audacity to give up a run the other day. He's terrible.
11:19
Which means that in his 28 outings, 26 of them have been scoreless. But in this day and age, in this year rather, I should say, with Miz and Sanchez, unless he's 28 for 28, there's no chance he's winning. 26 of 28.
11:34
I mean, he's only gave up a third, three earned runs all year, Mason Miller. Not good enough in this da- in this kind of com- competition with these guys. Ohtani verse the field. Ohtani minus 1600, field nine to one.
11:46
MVP? Yeah. Pff. God. Well, you can't bet that. [laughs] Either way. No, you can't. He's a human. He could get hurt. You don't wanna, you don't wish it, but you can't bet s- minus 1600. Coming back with Adam Burke next.
12:00
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12:23
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Can I interest you in the early bird special?
12:41
For sure. The early bird special. The early boid. Uh, next week, VSiN releases its NFL betting guide.
12:47
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13:17
And the, the author, he doesn't take credit for being the author, I'm, I'm... He's gonna say I'm overstating this, but the, uh, force behind all of our betting guides. Force, is that too much also? No, I think it's good.
13:28
The, uh, the juggernaut. The driving force. The juggernaut, the driving force behi-... That's what I'm looking for. Behind these guides is the great Adam Burke, who joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
13:37
You can follow him on Twitter @skatingtripods. Adam, in full betting guide mode, how you doing, man? I would, uh, I would go with master organizer- Okay... for the, for the NFL betting guides.
13:50
I, I have a lot of help with these things. Uh, you know, Matt Devine does a phenomenal job with the design, uh, Zachary Cohen, my senior editor, Michael Dolan, another one of our editors.
13:58
I get a lot of help with these things because I've got a great team here at VSiN.
14:02
So I know it sounds daunting when you think about all the team previews, all the features, all the best bets, all of that, but, uh, I got a really strong team here and I'm very proud of what we've been able to accomplish and, and what we're gonna accomplish next week with that guide on Monday.
14:14
NFL betting guide 1.0, correct? 1.0. There will be revisions. Yeah. So, uh, you know, we put this one out. We wanna make sure that people can
14:24
beat as many of the futures prices that they want to that are out there in the market and, you know, kinda get a lay of the land, right? I mean, there's so much going on in the sports world.
14:31
Even though the NFL is king, it's very easy to lose track of transactions that happened or, you know, there's 10 head coach changes this year in the NFL.
14:39
So it, it's a good way to kind of look into these teams a little bit, kinda get your feet wet heading into the season.
14:45
But then the 2.0 guide, which will be Monday, August 31st, that'll have, you know, more concrete best bets from our hosts and contributors, and also updates on these teams post-pre-season.
14:55
You know, because injuries are inevitable in a violent sport like football, so, you know, you definitely wanna get some updates as we head into the regular season.
15:02
But I think this is a great guide, you know, to kinda get things going, especially if you're going on vacation, right? It's a good complement.
15:08
Read it on the beach, read it by the pool, uh, read it while you're avoiding your children on vacation, whatever the case may be. Wow. Avoiding the children.
15:15
I, I think it's a great time of year for us to be doing this too, 'cause I, I, I noticed while I was shopping around stuff, this is like...
15:21
I've almost started to hate it, we've brought this up, Gil, of like when we get out of the Super Bowl, every sportsbook has every market available, like, right away. Mm-hmm. And I, it, it makes it tougher to bet.
15:31
This time of year, though, with that being the case, you kind of get... You see where some books have started to adjust on some things and where some are still sticking to kind of their openers.
15:40
So there's some wildly different numbers right now. I think it's a good time to start shopping around. Are you as, um,
15:46
I, I don't know if amused is the right word, but are you as, as tickled sort of by, you know, because, one, we have a grid we have to fill out with our division winners, who we think are gonna win the division, who's gonna win the conference, who's gonna win the Super Bowl.
15:56
But then we're also given, you know, carte blanche to give best bets, whether that's awards, whether that's divisions, whatever, right? Um, or season win totals, playoffs, whatever.
16:07
Are you as, as, as interested in how different VSiN hosts and guests approach that? In other words, some are these elaborate manifestos, and then others are like, "Uh, Cowboys, that's it." You know?
16:19
Like, it's so interesting to see how quickly or how well thought out or how straightforward some of those are.
16:26
Yeah, I think it's always fascinating, you know, especially because, y- you know, take you and I for example, right?
16:30
We're both big-time data guys, we love to dig into the advanced statistics and metrics and all of that, and that's kind of our handicapping style and our handicapping process, whereas other people, maybe it is a little bit more straightforward.
16:41
Maybe it's just, you know, "Hey, the schedule doesn't line up well for this team. They've got a stretch of a lot of road games in, you know, a few weeks," something like that.
16:49
Uh, you know, everyone kinda does things in a different way. Mm-hmm. You know, at the end of the day, we're all trying to get to the same finish line, which is to cash the ticket.
16:56
But yeah, I think it's really interesting to see the diversity, uh, of the mindsets, of the philosophies, just of the, you know, pr- best practices that each one of our hosts and contributors has in terms of getting to that ultimate end goal.
17:09
So I definitely think it is really interesting. And, uh, by the way, I wanna give a shout-out to Drew Dincic, who I know is a regular guest here on A Numbers Game. I know he's talked about alt win totals forever. Yes.
17:20
And this is an article that I've put, uh, in the NFL guide the last couple of seasons, and I just wanna mention this. You guys were talking during the break a little bit about some of your NFL thoughts.
17:29
Over the last two seasons, so 64 team seasons, 25 of the 64 teams have been plus or minus three and a half wins on their season win totals. So there's definitely- Yeah...
17:40
some money to be made in that market if you're able to correctly isolate those teams, and that's why, you know, having this guide when we put it out is a, a good starting point for something like that.
17:50
Such a great point. And Drew, yes, Drew deserves all the credit because the betting markets with alt season win totals used to really be mispriced. Now they, they didn't...
17:59
You know, they're not giving us as much bang for their buck as they, as we used to get, bang for our buck. But yes, the, I think that's a great- All, you know, point to season with all season win totals.
18:08
It's always, it's still really good.
18:10
The other thing is, and I, well, I always like to say this, and we were talking about this a little off the air, is, you know, just a couple stats, whatever your belief system is in the NFL right now.
18:18
And I should also point out, just, I, I was gonna try to indicate that just because you write more words, you're smarter than the person who doesn't, 'cause oftentimes you write more words and then your bet is wrong, and the person who just gives you a couple sentences is right.
18:29
But just to, just sort of just shatter our, our, our thinking about the NFL, there were an NFL record five playoff teams last year coming off 11 plus loss seasons that made the playoffs.
18:42
So think about how you felt about the Patriots, the Jaguars, the Bears, the Panthers, and the Niners. They all made the playoffs. Three teams in NFL history have gone from a 13 plus loss season to a 13 plus win season.
18:55
Two of those happened last year, the Jaguars and the Patriots. So again, whatever we think we know, we probably don't know as much as we think we do. Things happen in this league in a way that they didn't used to, right?
19:08
In the '80s and '70s and ni- you know, '70s, '80s and '90s was much more straightforward pre-free agency, and now it's just absolute mayhem from year to year. Mostly. Not in all cases, but, uh, in many cases it is.
19:21
To baseball, you have a couple plays today for us. What do you have, Adam? Yeah, I think real quick on that Jaguars and Patriots thing, both of those teams with new head coaches last year. Yeah.
19:30
You know, we got 10 of them, almost a third of the league this season. So things could get kind of wild. Things could get kind of crazy.
19:35
I think it should be a great NFL season, and again, that guide next Monday, uh, you know, maybe the start of it for you, maybe the start of doing your research.
19:42
I encourage you to head to vsin.com/subscribe and get that early bird special, uh, you know, for the football package, because that includes the NFL guide and our college football guide, uh, which will be Monday, August 3rd.
19:52
Ooh. As far as the baseball side of things goes, um, over 100 runs were scored in the Athletics home stand here at Las Vegas Ballpark. [laughs] And now they're going back to Sacramento. Oh, boy.
20:03
You know, they played some very, very long games in this draining Vegas heat. I can tell you, having been in Texas and South Carolina over the last week and a half, I will take the dry heat any day of the week.
20:14
Humidity is awful, but- [laughs]...
20:17
it's still a lot to be standing out there, to be, you know, trying to go through your process playing here in Las Vegas when it's as hot as it is, and those games are as long as they were.
20:26
Now they go back home, and I can see a little bit of a letdown here from the A's while they're in Sacramento. I like the Pirates at plus money today with Jared Jones on the bump.
20:34
Also, for JT Ginn, you know, he had that near no-hitter a few starts ago, right? Took it into the ninth inning, gave up a single, then the walk-off two-run homer. Since then, hasn't really looked great.
20:45
360 ERA, but expected ERA over four, FIP over four. Uh, he's walking a lot of guys, giving up a lot of hard-hit contact.
20:53
I think that start really took a lot out of him, and of course, you know, a rough outing here in Vegas as most guys had.
20:59
Uh, but I'm looking to fade JT Ginn right now, and I think Carmen Miguelski, uh, who has been moved to the bullpen for the Pirates, could end up following Jared Jones in this one.
21:08
Ginn's got some platoon issues against lefties. The Pirates' best hitters are all lefties. I think this is a worthwhile look here, uh, with the Pirates at plus money in Sacramento. Sutter Health Park.
21:18
Um, before they were playing in Vegas, we, we were firing all the overs there, so, uh, not a tremendous environment change, but, uh, anything from here, I guess, is somewhat of an environment change.
21:28
Then it's the Rays and the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine tonight. What are you playing there? Yeah, so we'll see how this one goes, right?
21:34
I mean, you got two pitch to contact guys, and it's not hot in Chavez Ravine yet, wind blowing out a little bit, so we'll see if it's a good night for the bats or not. But, uh, Nick Martinez goes for the Rays tonight.
21:44
I, admittedly, you know, 243 ERA, 445 expected ERA. When your expected ERA is two runs higher than your ERA, it's very hard for me to like you.
21:54
But I think with a veteran like Martinez here, I think the way that you kinda neutralize this Dodgers offense, if you can, is to really keep them off balance, and his best pitch is a changeup. It always has been.
22:05
He's been very good against lefties throughout his career to neutralize that platoon split, and the Dodgers are probably gonna throw seven lefties at him tonight. So I think Martinez has the chance to survive.
22:14
He's also a strike thrower, doesn't walk anybody. Dodgers, of course, a big tenet of their offense is drawing walks, as it always is with so many feared hitters in that lineup.
22:23
Uh, but Eric Lauer, you know, another journeyman here, both journeymen in this game. The Dodgers just, I don't know, they just do this, right? They just find dudes, and all of a sudden they get this Dodger magic.
22:33
Five runs on 12 hits and 16 and a third for Eric Lauer. He's given up four home runs, but the Rays don't hit home runs. They're dead last in the league in hitting home runs.
22:42
So even though people are kind of applauding this offense, they don't do it with the long ball. I think this is a game that can stay under tonight. I played under nine and a half, uh, minus 120 in this one. I love it.
22:53
Okay. Uh, Adam, appreciate it as always. Again, the, uh, NFL betting guide one week from today. Uh, all of our homework due on Thursday, correct?
23:02
That is the, that is the, the homework deadline for those of us who- Yep... may not have submitted our work yet. Um, and then the college football, it has to wait, right?
23:10
'Cause you don't know who's playing for who until August, right? Essentially. That's how it goes. Thank you, Adam. Appreciate it. Have a good one, guys. Adam Burke, everybody, with his Guardians hat,
23:21
mocking me right to my f- Mm. We'll come back. They got a hydration break. We're gonna take one as well in the soccer game. Coming back. [upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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Not at Slash, but at Splash. Yeah. Uh-huh. And, uh, so far so good, Kelly Billy. Um, our two combined survivor entries, we do not have a L yet. We have a couple wins with South Korea and USA.
25:08
Morocco, who we shared on our two entries, with a draw. Not the worst outcome against Brazil. So looking good so far. Again, we have to get all four through per entry. Yeah, and w- and wins are big.
25:21
I mean- Wins are big... draw's not bad at all. I mean- Yeah... especially when you're drawing against Brazil. That's what I mean, yeah. And then, yeah, wins are huge, 'cause you're pretty much through. I mean, right?
25:31
What, what is it? All, all but- You're e-... eight third place teams? You're a long way to getting through, yeah. Eight out of 12 third place teams get through this year. Yeah.
25:40
Uh, it, so if you win- If you win, you're ca- If you win any match, it's tough for you not to make it. You gotta really mess it up. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
25:47
Yeah, we- So yeah, South Korea, U- USA, thanks for getting us off right. We still have, uh- Actually, really, we really couldn't ask for a much better start. No, we couldn't.
25:54
You, uh, we still have Senegal in one entry remaining, uh, in their first game of the group stage.
26:00
Uruguay, Norway, and Croatia still to play their first game in the group stage, but of course this is gonna be determined by all three games of the group stage. And again, gotta get all four of your entries through.
26:11
This to me is the easy part. Yeah. Once you get to the knockout round of 32, then it gets a little dicey. Yeah, and then we switch, and all these teams that, that, that advance we're rooting against right away.
26:21
Don't, don't go any further, please. [laughs] That is correct. So- This'll be fun. This'll be fun, 'cause we have... I just actually made a Uruguay bet. I w- am ma- I bet them to win to nil today. Win to nil today.
26:30
Oh, okay. Uh, against Saudi Arabia. So we have them today, and then tomorrow Senegal and Norway both play. Oh, wait a minute. So we, we are, we have Senegal in one and we... Oh, they play e- they don't play each other.
26:45
No. Okay, yeah. No, no. But all three of these teams- Yeah... in action over the next two days for us. Well, we're at- And then Croatia on Wednesday. Yeah. We're at G and H. Group G and H today.
26:53
Tomorrow it's groups I and J, and then it's groups K and L. Is that true? That's how it works. That's it. Sounds right. Yeah. Croatia with a big match against England on Wednesday. Oh, boy.
27:05
If we can win lo- that one, Gil. We'll settle for the draw. We will settle for the draw. Speaking of which, right now in World Cup action, Group H, Spain and Cape Verde. Uh, this is nil-nil in the 33rd minute.
27:19
Is, is Spain in trouble, Gil? S- is Spain going to lose the World Cup? [laughs] Well, no. I don't think they're gonna lose the World Cup.
27:25
[laughs] But they only have, last I looked was a few minutes ago, they only had a couple shots, and only one on goal against Cape Verde, who has given Spain, at least through 32 and a half minutes, all they could handle.
27:37
Um, not able to penetrate the Cape Verde D. So. Oh, long ball over the top. Watch out, keeper. That is a- Well-... very weak e- entry pass there. He tried to- Weak shot. Yeah. Well, it wasn't a shot.
27:50
I think it was a pass, I think. Why didn't that guy lay out for it, though? Yeah. Like, it is the World Cup. The goalie made a weak attempt on it. Why didn't the guy lay out for it?
27:57
[laughs] You're from Cape Verde and it's the World Cup. Crash right into the goalkeeper. Look at this. They actually, like, they had a chance here. It's a, it's a great ball up field. Yeah.
28:05
But then the pass in, in front of the net was, uh, too far ahead. Nil-nil. What, what do you call that, Gil? Is that a go route? What do you call that in soccer with the, uh- It's a give and go, I believe...
28:15
yeah, with a bobbitt 60 yards up field. [laughs] A go route. [laughs] Uh, Spain unbeaten in their last 30 matches. 22 wins, eight draws. That's what Cape Verde, as a massive underdog, is up against here.
28:29
Um, Spain with, uh- Always impressed by their soccer... the best sort of organization of the, of the match so far here. Uh, threatening, but you know, there's about 55 of these, and then, then, then the ball's stolen.
28:41
There, and then the whistle. Anyway, scoreless. No, player's down. Player's down. I hope he's okay. He's, oh, boy, that injury is gonna take him out for at least 17 seconds- [laughs]...
28:50
as he's writhing in pain on the ground. Here are the World Cup bets, uh, that I had again. USA stage of elimination round of 16 exactly three to one.
28:58
Sure didn't look like they were gonna eliminate in the round of 16 the other day. Group C exacta, Morocco, Brazil, in that order. I think the draw was favorable to that, plus 650.
29:08
Group F exacta is the Netherlands, Japan, plus 270. We'll see. [laughs] Those two teams, that was the, uh, draw the other day between those two teams as well, right? If I'm not mistaken. Japan and the Netherlands.
29:19
So my exacta plays had draws already in those two. Oh, yes, yeah. Group G exacta, Belgium plays Egypt here today. That's plus 140. I wanted too. Got a chance to do that one too. We got a chance to do that one as well.
29:31
And then group J, Argentina, Austria, plus 140. Golden Boot, Mikel Oyarzabal. This just in, he does not have a goal yet. Uh, he's 11 to one to have the Golden Boot.
29:39
And the FIFA Young Player Award, Lamine Yamal of Spain at plus 155. Um, yeah. Oh, Spain now has five shots, one on goal. Cape Verde has one shot. Is, is Yamal playing in this match?
29:51
Uh- 'Cause that was the one- Excellent question if he is playing or not in the end. Um, you have a slew of bets. Not playing today. Yeah. They thought he might stay out of the first game. Yeah.
30:02
France to win the World Cup- He's, he's there though. He- Has ar- has arrived in whatever city he's there playing... he landed He s- he landed You wanna go through your World Cup bets? Uh, sure.
30:10
France to win quarters and World Cup, and then I have all these teams to win quarters: Portugal, Belgium, Norway; Morocco to win Group C; Belgium to win Group G; Colombia to win Group K.
30:22
Curacao, lowest scoring team, I don't know if that one goal yesterday was good. Uh, converted penalty kicks over 55. Gil, have you noticed a penalty kick yet? 'Cause I haven't.
30:32
Uh- So I think I got a ways to go on that one... wasn't there one penalty kick? I don't know. I thought I saw one. Did they make it? Yes. [laughs] Nice. Unless I imagined it. [laughs] I was on the plane- Okay...
30:40
so I'm just trying to glean what, what happened. Yeah Uh, they're only hauling over three and a half goals, and plus o- 130. He has not played yet. Um- Tomorrow, when we get started.
30:50
You wanna talk about our football for a second? Let's do it, man. Um, let's talk about an award here. Again, because we were inspired by doing our homework for our NFL betting guide, um...
31:04
By the way, yes, uh, the opening match, Switzerland against Qatar, there was a penalty kick. Oh, in the opening match there was? Yeah. Okay. I believe so. Okay. Mm-hmm.
31:13
And then wasn't there one in Germany, Curacao as well? Germany had a penalty kick. Two in already? Yeah. Let's go. I believe so. Only 53 to go. I believe so. Over 53. Uh, okay. NFL Coach of the Year.
31:24
Shall we start any Coach of the Year discussion with Cleve T.'s parameters? Yes, we always should. Okay. What a save by the Cape Verde k- keeper. Wow. [laughs] Okay. Keeps them alive. Uh- Sorry...
31:32
here, our buddy Cleve T., 20 of the last 21. Are these updated? These are updated. 20 of the last 21 winners ended the season with 10 or more wins, and all 20 had nine or more.
31:43
14 of the last 15 winners came from teams with 11 or more wins. The average, this is interesting, the average preseason win total of the last 24 winners is 7.7 wins.
31:54
In other words, coaches of the year do not come from teams that have pre-flop season win totals that are high, and no winner in the last 17 years came into the season with a win total of greater than nine and a half.
32:06
It's never happened in the last 17 years. And 13 of the last 14 winners came into the season on a team that were underdogs to make the playoffs.
32:15
That is how you get yourself a Coach of the Year award, where expectations are not high. That is essentially what Cleve is putting in numerical terms.
32:26
So we look at this year's upcoming Coach of the Year [laughs] award, and again, I mentioned this when we went over this last week, which is you almost have to pause.
32:34
There's so many new coaches in different places, you almost have to pause for a second.
32:37
John Harbaugh of the Giants, John Harbaugh of the Giants, let that sink in for a second, is the shortsided, uh, short shot at six to one. Jesse Minter of the Ravens, where Harbaugh vacated- Mm-hmm...
32:49
or was let go, eight to one. Robert Saleh of the Titans, 10 to one. Kellen Moore, Saints, 12 to one. Todd Monken, Browns, 14 to one. Joe Brady, Bills, 14 to one. Mike McCarthy, Steelers, 16 to one.
33:03
Brian Schottenheimer, uh, and Kevin Stef- Brian Schottenheimer of the Cowboys, Kevin Stefanski of the Falcons, both 18 to one. How is Aaron Glenn only 20 to one? 'Cause the team sucks. No, but how is it...
33:16
That's what I mean. So how is he only 20 to one? Oh. [laughs] Uh, because, because he sets up for the case. He, he would check all the boxes if he won. So the book can't give us more than 20 to one on that?
33:29
Uh, uh, no, apparently not. This is where it all gets interesting. I mean, that, it's part of the reason, I mean, it's part of the reason why John Harbaugh's the favorite, right? I mean, a new coach. Yeah. Same thing.
33:37
You go into the situation, though, that with a good season you could check all those boxes and get home. So doesn't, so doesn't Jesse Minter then immediately not qualify because of the Ravens' season win total?
33:51
The win total part, yes. Yeah, so- The wins from last year, though, no. I think this- So, so based, based on the Cle- He, he obviously qualifies, but based on the Cleve T. parameters, he is not likely to win.
34:03
Jesse Minter, of all of those names, that's the one, right, of all these. What about Joe Brady of the Bills? Oh, there's pl- Same story... there's plenty we could go through there. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
34:12
I've, I've got a couple that jumped out to me. We can, we can look at them more on the other- There's no s- Like, i- if, if Sean McDermott didn't win it, they're not giving it to Joe Brady either. They're just not. No.
34:21
We can talk more about this. I, I don't think so. Let's talk more about this on the other side. Coming back. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:25
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:42
Back on the Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino Downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Billings. Still scoreless. [clears throat] Pardon me. Nil-nil between Spain and Cape Verde,
34:55
or Espanol, Espana and Cabo Verde, however you wanna say it. That's right. Um, 44th minute of action here. Uh, now the 45th minute, heading into the 45th minute. Who saw this coming?
35:08
Spain was, what, a minus 1600 favorite or something like that? Mm-hmm. I think, were they pre-flopping this? Um- Yeah, you got it. It was anywhere in that range. Anywhere in that range. So you get these big favorites.
35:17
I think I saw minus 1100 to, like, minus 2200, something like that. Yeah. Mi- yeah, minus, let me show you, minus 1075, something like that. I thought I saw earlier that they were way higher than minus 1600.
35:28
So I, the other one, yeah, I haven't really been tracking it, but I don't know where... Live odds, Spain minus 450. Yeah, that'll come down. Cape Verde, 25 to one, four to one the draw. Oh, there's a great entry pass.
35:40
Oh, shot. What a save. Wait, wait, does Cape Verde have the greatest goalkeeper on the planet? This guy has made two ridiculous saves. I might be overstating this save, but it's still a great save, right?
35:52
Oh, that's a great save. It's incredible. That's a great save. I'm pretty sure, uh- Wow... pretty sure the way to put it is, uh, the expected goals are high for Spain right now. Well done. Well done.
36:01
Uh, Cubs most wins in June for me, 12 to one. That ain't happening. That on the heels of the Spurs 19 to one taking a bath. Yeah Add it to the list. Great bets.
36:14
That on the heels of the Spurs versus the Celtics 125 to 1 meeting in the finals. Add it to the list of solid bets that didn't get home. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Mm-hmm. Yep.
36:26
Oh, look, you have two World Cup plays today. Soccer. Uh, Uruguay win to nil, plus 108, against Saudi Arabia here later today.
36:34
And then one tomorrow, I think this is tomorrow, Norway laying a goal and a half, minus 164 versus Iraq. Played that one early on. That is tomorrow.
36:44
And then NBA draft for me, Darren Peterson first overall pick, plus 350. Cameron Boozer third overall pick, minus 125.
36:52
Do you make anything of this news that Darren Peterson is only meeting with the Wizards and nobody else? Well, I like to read into things. I don't know how much it means, Gil, but
37:03
I guess if you were gonna really read into this, this would say that the Jazz have made it known to Darren Peterson that they have no interest in him, which I think makes some sense.
37:13
We've heard some of those reports before. If he's only g- he's only gonna talk to the Wizards, maybe it's 'cause the Jazz told him, "Hey, we're going with, we're going with Debansor or Boozer," whoever's there.
37:22
Or is it Darren Peterson just thinking to himself, "You know, if I only go m- meet with the Wizards, that will send a signal to everybody that I believe I am only, I only should be the first pick in the draft."
37:36
I don't... What does that matter, though? But that's what I mean. I, I'm just, I'm trying to get into his head. I don't know what that means, but you know what?
37:42
I've, I've heard worse explanations of how, what someone thinks about what that might convey.
37:48
Yeah, I mean, I, I mean, I think there's other, like, there, there is a chance that he fully believes he's going number one and that there's no reason for him to visit anywhere else.
37:57
I think we think that's a little crazy, but I think there's, there's, there's that chance too. I mean, uh, Wizards are gonna mess this up. Just draft Debansor.
38:03
Or, or it's, or it's, "Sure, I'll go work out for you Wizards 'cause you're number one. Otherwise, I know I'm not falling beyond three, so what does it matter?" Oh, another save. Unfortunately- Another goal...
38:12
unfortunately I think the most likely answer is that, Gil. Well- It's why am I gonna wor- why am I gonna go meet with w- more than one team? I'm not falling past three. Uh, I don't know. I just...
38:22
Listen, I th- This goal is, this goal is amazing. I know, right? Um- It was incredible... oh, that one was gonna be- I don't think that one's gonna go in.
38:29
The, uh, the thing about this, I've thought from moment one, I've been consistent, 'cause I was in DC when they got the first pick, the Wizards. Mm-hmm.
38:36
From the very first moment, I'm like, all the signals are it's Debansor, and I'm not, I'm not straying now. I think it's him. But anyway, I thought that was interesting that Peterson,
38:45
who's not favored to go number one, was like, "Nope, that's the only team I'm meeting with."
38:48
I, I thought, I guess I thought it was more interesting that it, I mean, d- I do think you're, like we're doing right now, anybody that's trying to read into this information, like, you're, you're taking a leap, right?
38:59
Yeah. And it, betting odds were really not affected much at all. Dallin Cuff has Spain over three and a half goals in this match.
39:07
Well, we are a minute away from the first half ending nil-nil, so got a lot of work to do to get that one home.
39:15
Uh, in the Belgium game, which comes on after this, Belgium, um, Belgium about to, well, I don't know, what time is it? Noon Pacific, 3:00 PM Eastern? No. Yes, Belgium and Egypt will tangle in, uh, Group G.
39:31
He's got Jeremy Doku of Belgium goal or assist, plus 155. Goal or assist for Jeremy Doku, plus 155. That from Dallin. Uh, game two today of the quadruple header in the World Cup.
39:44
Uh, and then, uh, Wes Reynolds had Georgia in the College World Series today minus two and a half runs versus Oklahoma at even money. He thinks Georgia is gonna take down Oklahoma and take them down with margin.
39:56
And again, if Georgia wins that game, they will be the equivalent to what North Carolina is in the first half of the, uh, College World Series bracket, which is, for lack of a better term, in the driver's seat of both of those, still needing to lose twice to be ousted, whereas everybody else is on the brink.
40:13
So big game, uh, Georgia and Oklahoma. Adam Burke, couple baseball plays. Pirates, the Buccos plus 110 at the Athletics at Sutter Health Park in Sactown later tonight.
40:23
And then the Rays-Dodgers under nine and a half runs, um, in that ball game tonight at Chavez Ravine. By the way, the tennis play lost, uh, the overnight. Maya Joint lost in three sets.
40:36
She had it on her racket, up a break in the second set to win it, and she gaks it away.
40:41
So again, wasn't playing any grass, now going super light on grass, and it's 'cause of outcomes like that, that maybe that's the best to just go very, very gingerly into grass at this point, 'cause that's not a fun outcome, nor was Taylor Fritz yesterday.
40:55
Greg Peterson was on earlier, gave us fab five baseball bets in addition to some dating talk. Marlins-Phillies over seven and a half from Greg. Nats over the Royals. Nats are about minus 130.
41:06
Reds minus 134 over the Mets. Reds just having an awful month. Worst in baseball. Padres-Cardinals under eight and a half runs.
41:13
And the Tigers and Astros, he's on the Tigers at plus money, plus 118 between Detroit and Houston later today from Greg Peterson. Back to the coach of the year stuff- Yeah... Kelly, Kelly Bidlin.
41:23
Well, first, before, before we go back to coach of the year, can I ask you one last thing about basketball? Mm-hmm. I did ask earlier. Do you have any problem with the Spurs fouling down three with,
41:34
when the, is it Mitchell Robinson? Was it Mitchell Robinson who got the offensive board on the, was it- Yeah... was it- He got the offensive board... he got the offensive board. It was 93 to 90.
41:43
The shot clock went back to 14 seconds. There was like a nine-second discrepancy between the game clock and the play clock, but they fouled,
41:51
and so it ended up being a four-point, uh, was it a four-point play at that p- uh, four-point margin at that point? Yeah. Yes, four-point margin. Yeah.
41:58
So I'm trying to remember all the missed free throws and times it took place.
42:00
So in other words, you had the option of letting it play out, hoping for a stop and being down three, or fouling right there and sort of- Not extending things, I guess I guess I didn't have a problem with it then.
42:12
I had a pro- I, I think you could more rightfully question the foul that led them to the free throw line, right? You had the foul when they, it was like 29 on the clock. Yeah. Right? Knicks had the ball.
42:22
They chose to foul to put them there. I think once you've done that, yeah, I'm probably keeping it consistent.
42:27
And also, and, uh, the reason I'm bringing it up is 'cause I also wanna say, and the Knicks were gonna foul if you were down three anyway, no matter what. Yeah. Yep. We, 'cause we've seen that from them too. Yeah.
42:35
Didn't, didn't fundamentally change. I saw some people bringing that up.
42:37
Anyway, back to Coach of the Year, and I was just saying, okay, so based on the Cleve TA parameters that we were just talking about last segment, Jesse Minter of the Ravens, right? You know, uh, Joe Brady of the Bills.
42:49
So we're talking Baltimore has a, you know, season win total of what, 11 and a half? The Bills are 10 and a half. Juice either way. So you're out already based on those parameters.
42:59
But, you know, that could apply to some others on this list as, uh, on this list and not on this list as well, so keep those in mind. Do you have a play that you'd like to make or, or names you're looking at?
43:09
I don't, but I think there's interesting ones down the board. I, I, I think, I think Minter will be interesting to see how he's handled, I think, with the major switchover from Harbaugh, the bad record this year.
43:21
I do think he's a- I do think he's live, um, especially if we start talking about this Baltimore defense, uh, becoming, you know, a, a, a top unit again, and he brings that back. I think he's live.
43:31
I think, I even think Harbaugh's alive, and this all lines up for them if the Giants can make a run in a weak NFC East. Yeah, I think he's live.
43:39
You'd have to believe in, in Robert Saleh and this Titans team more than me. I have no interest in that, in 10 to 1. Ben Johnson gets eliminated based on the season win total of 10 and a half for the Lions.
43:51
He, he, I think he's an interesting one because he was so close last year. Is there any carryover love for Ben Johnson if him and Caleb go put on another show this year?
44:00
I'm just, just mentioning based on the Cleve TA numbers. Mm-hmm. Right? Which are pretty, pretty solid. Mm. Like, there's very rare... It was, it was very college basketball formula-ish.
44:09
There was very little exception to it. So those are all the o- I mean, again, you can't be higher than nine and a half, and the names that we mentioned, Jesse Minter, Joe Brady, Ben Johnson, Jim Harbaugh- Yeah...
44:26
all eliminated right off the top. Other ones I wrote down that I thought, "Okay, if you're, if you're a believer, this is just, you gotta be a bigger believer than I am," Falcons. I think Stefanski's live again.
44:36
I- if you're a believer in them i- in the South. Would that be three for him? Yeah, I think so. [laughs] Schottenheimer if you're a believer in the Cowboys. I, totally, I think that, yeah, could make a lot of sense.
44:47
Zach Taylor, how do they handle that situation with Cincinnati? Bengals, by the way, nine and a half, so they would just bare- So right there... they'd barely make it, yeah.
44:55
And then last one I wrote down, Gil, where I think if you are a believer in this team, I think it makes a lot of sense, your boy Dan Quinn. Dan Quinn. Some of us believe. Some of us do.
45:07
I think he checks all those boxes, right? Yeah, seven and a half on the, uh, Skins, right? Seven and a half? Get McDan- Seven...
45:12
uh, uh, get Jayden Daniels back playing well, this team can make a playoff run, 28 to 1, sure. Sure. Why not? Enjoy from VSIN, the Sports Betting Network.
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