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Jun 14, 2024
A Numbers Game | June 16, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | June 16, 2024 | Hour 2
00:00
44:18
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. How are you taking us in? We appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander.
0:18
It's Kelly Bidlin live from Bar Canada at The D in downtown Las Vegas. Uh, Numbers Game presented by ZYN Nicotine Pouches, America's number one nicotine pouch. Find out more at zyn.com.
0:29
Kelly, I haven't read any tweets today. Should I read some tweets? We get tweets. We get tweets at Beating The Book. Oh, by the way, Iga- Actually, I don't know if we had. [laughs] What's that? Have we gotten tweets?
0:37
[laughs] I don't think... We have had tweets, but I just didn't read any. Iga Swiatek, by the way, world number one, has tweeted out, a teary-eyed Iga Swiatek attended a, a Taylor Swift concert. She said, "I'm dead.
0:46
Yes, I cried many times during the show. Yes, it was incredible. You are amazing, Taylor Swift." She's weepy, holding a handwritten note from Taylor Swift. Boy, she loves her. Oh, greatness recognize greatness, right?
0:56
There. Just why I r- just why I mentioned it. Are you, are you a Swiftie? Is that what just happened? Hey, no, I don't- You have no idea what that is, do you? Uh, we had tweet- No, I know what it is.
1:06
[laughs] We get actual tweets. Uh, T-Bro, "I honestly think Hungary finishes last in the group." He disagrees with Paul Carr. Remember Paul Carr, what did he, who did he have last in that group? Was it Poland? Yes.
1:19
I believe so. Speaking of Iga. He's- Assuming they're in the same group, then yes... uh, he said Scotland will like- I'm gonna go for an answer...
1:25
Scotland will likely grab a point versus Germany today, and Switzerland is never an easy task for anyone at a tournament. Scotland may struggle to score, but they will sit 10 behind the ball and make it difficult.
1:34
I might not be right about that, by the way. You calling Scotland draw today? All right. Uh, JDem said, uh, talking about the Celtics- Tied to one on that... said, "Celtics are really good.
1:41
I think they would beat every team potentially out of the West or East. They haven't even played great offense against Dallas and are still up three to nothing. Shows their margin for error."
1:49
Hope you heard our, our historical analysis on this Celtics team a little earlier, where they rank.
1:54
Uh, Kevin Ryan, I'm not sure if Kevin is being serious or not, uh, he says, "Gil, uh, Gil, when factoring MVP, Brown is the clear winner, hence the minus 280.
2:04
Whenever they show the players talking and game planning, he's the clear leader on the floor, and that will push him over the top in the voting." So I'm not sure if he's being serious or not by that.
2:12
You know, the real tough part for me on Jaylen Brown is I was that guy who was, like, defending him forever, and then finally you just had to stop 'cause there was too many, like, successful years, and he'd have terrible playoffs.
2:23
I feel like [laughs] I've, I've, I've gotten off the Jaylen Brown train, like, a year ago, and now I can't, I can't be the guy who comes back and, like, he's, "Oh, he's awesome. He's amazing."
2:31
By the way, uh, I was wrong. It was not... No, I was right. It was, it, it was, well, Poland was in Group D, so maybe... And who did, uh... So he was talking about a different group entirely. That's what I said.
2:40
[laughs] Yeah. Oh. I was gonna say, as long as they're in the same group, man, I don't remember. Sorry, I missed the... Kane, "Gimme Ukraine and Czechia," he says, "to win it all. I can hedge later."
2:47
Uh, Larry Fresh says the beer theory. Apparently they took a beer away from Luka after, at some point, and then they haven't won since, I don't- Oh, yeah, yeah, that was a thing. That's a thing? Okay.
2:56
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, not, uh, not only did I run into this gentleman, uh, some time ago, about, I wanna es- estimate, like, six weeks ago randomly, but so too did Kelly.
3:05
It's our old friend Matt Linderman joining us to talk College World Series courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
3:12
Matt, these days, of course, uh, assistant director of trading for the win, and you can follow him on Twitter at lindtrain, L-I-N-D-E train. How you doing, Matt? What's happening, man? What's good, guys?
3:24
It's been a while. Yeah, man. Funky fresh haircut. Where do you get your hair cut around here? I got a, uh, lady named Barb, actually.
3:30
My barber is named Barb, and, uh, she cuts my hair down at, uh, Ashton Classic Barber here on the west side of town. So yeah. Got a bar- Try to, uh, try to look fresh for you guys, you know? Wow, nice plug there.
3:40
He's got a barber named Barb. Barber named Barb. Is that wild? Yeah. [laughs] He's got a plumber named Plumb. He's got all kinds of things like that. All right, College World Series.
3:48
Now let's, uh, let's put our cards on the table here, Matt. You're from Kentucky, aren't you? I am. I am. Does... Okay, but you're, you're gonna, you're, you have no Kentucky bias here?
3:57
Let's just establish that at the beginning. Well, I do have a future on them. I, I decided- Okay... around, around April it was time to probably come and jump in.
4:07
They were, they started the year, I think, in the 100 to one range, and I ended up getting 50 to one once it was pretty clear that they were gonna be a contender.
4:13
So, um, yeah, I have Kentucky and, uh, I have Texas A&M 15 to one as well, so those are the two teams I'm rooting for.
4:21
Um, Kentucky's definitely one of the better teams in this field, but I think you probably have to give the nod to Tennessee and Texas A&M as the two best teams in this field. So we'll see how it shakes out.
4:30
I know there's gonna be a lot of blue in the crowd, uh, a lot of Kentucky fans, uh, invading Omaha for the first time, so it should be exciting to watch and see how they do.
4:38
If someone was landing on this right now, I understand you have Kentucky and Texas A&M, but if someone was landing on this right now, what would you recommend at an outright bet based on the line?
4:48
I think everything is, is pretty much gone at this point. Yeah. I mean, if you wanna really force a play, um, I don't know. It's really tough. This is a really balanced field.
4:59
I don't think Tennessee is head and shoulders, you know, better than everyone, but they do have a little bit of an edge.
5:04
I think that whole side of the bracket's really tough, so, um, you know, I could see any of those four teams coming out of that side. I think Kentucky's side is a little bit easier.
5:13
Um, I would probably give the edge to Texas A&M if they had stayed healthy, but they lost their, uh, star hitter Braden Montgomery last week, and then they lost a pretty key reliever this week as well, so, um, a little bit tougher for Texas A&M without those two guys.
5:25
But yeah, this is a really great field.
5:27
I mean, when you have Florida coming in and they're basically the long shot of the field, they were probably a top five, top 10 team preseason, and, and one of the most talented teams in the country, I mean, this is definitely a year where it wouldn't surprise me at all if any of these eight teams won it.
5:39
Any of those eight teams. You know who's one of those eight teams, Kelly? Florida State. That's right. Let's go, dogs. Plus 750, baby. Let's go. Uh, we have, uh, better numbers than that, too.
5:47
I, your, your point is well taken. At this point, all the n- all the real numbers are gone. Um, so yeah, any one of these eight teams. Four SEC, four ACC.
5:57
Let's look at these one at a time and see if you would recommend a play on any of these, 'cause we do have lines now for all four, uh, game ones, if you will, but in the College World Series bracket, they're referred to as game one, two, three, and four.
6:08
Virginia, North Carolina, Matt. Um, Carolina slight favorite, minus 131. Any bet on this? Now anyone who has a bet and doesn't have numbers at this point in the season is just full of it, in my opinion.
6:21
So I'm just gonna be straight with you. I could come up with some narratives and tell you that you should play this or that, but I made this game, I think Virginia minus 101.
6:29
So with the current number, I wanna say it's, what, minus 130 even money right now. There's just nothing out there to play, to be honest with you.
6:36
Um, I think if you looked at the total, I made the total a little bit lower, but, uh, these are probably the two best offenses we have in Omaha, so I'm not necessarily running to bet under.
6:46
Uh, I think we got wind blowing in a little bit today, and I know it's a, a pitcher's park to start, but, um, yeah, I'd say if I had to do anything in that North Carolina/Virginia game, it would probably be under.
6:57
Um, but yeah, my, my number is right there on the side. Right there on the side. Okay. Uh, what about Florida State and Tennessee? Tennessee the short shot to win it all.
7:03
They're minus 165 in this game against the Seminoles. This is one game that was actually kind of interesting. I think if you look at Florida State, they're very top-end heavy with their rotation.
7:15
They pro- they have arguably the best pitcher in Omaha in Jamie Arnold. So you look at Florida State's staff, they really fall off a little bit once he's gone, once he's already been used.
7:24
But that first game, I think you can probably target them. I wanna say maybe do the run line, since you've got a low total there. Um, you could bet plus one and a half.
7:33
That'll cover you in the bottom of the ninth or extra innings in most situations.
7:36
But, um, I would, yeah, I would lean towards Florida State today, and then I would probably look to fade them tomorrow as you get into the back end of their pitching staff. Uh, some guys that aren't quite as solid.
7:45
I know they've suffered a couple injuries in their starting rotation. So yeah, I think Florida State's the play today, and then maybe look to fade them tomorrow.
7:52
I, I ask you this as knowing that you, you work at, at the Wynn, but what book or books would you say has the most robust menu for the College World Series, generally speaking?
8:03
You know, I actually wanna give DK a lot of credit for what they've done with the college baseball this year.
8:08
I, I wanna say it's not easy to originate games every single day for four months straight, but they've done a really great job.
8:14
And I don't know if you guys know how the market kind of works, but a lot of the feed providers for these other books in other states, they take the feed from DK. So DK creates the market for just about everyone.
8:25
So I have to give DK credit. Um, they're the first ones to come out most of the time.
8:30
Um, in terms of margins, I think Circa is really the only one that you can say puts up a consistent product w- with sides and totals, but also offers a reasonable margin.
8:40
So, um, definitely have to give Circa some credit because almost everyone has 15, you know, minus 115 both ways, 30 cent lines still this time of year, which I think, you know, you wanna do that in February or March, that makes sense, but we're, you know, we're in Omaha now.
8:54
We got eight teams left. Yeah. I think we could probably lower the margins a little bit.
8:57
So, um, definitely have to give Circa and DK credit for what they've done in the college baseball this year, and I think all the other books are, are still working to maybe catch up a little bit.
9:05
I think this is a newer sport, so give them some time and hopefully next year they, uh, are a little more consistent with what they're offering. That is very magnanimous of you, uh, Matt. Very well said. Um, I- and I...
9:15
It sort of begs the question, I, I'm sorry to even [laughs] ask this, but I think I'm supposed to. Uh, at Wynn, not in the, you know, not something that you can influence more?
9:27
So we have the fee- we have a feed for college baseball ourselves, which comes, like I said, from the DK lines. We do have better margins, but there in Boston is absolutely no interest in college baseball.
9:38
We just don't get any handles. Yeah. So we do have it up every day. We've got 20 cent lines for the most part, or four, 4.5% margins. But yeah, we just, we don't get any interest.
9:48
We, you know, the biggest bet we took all we- all year was, uh, Kentucky last week, of course. And our biggest liability in the futures, it's Kentucky. So I don't know if I'm doing that great of a job booking everything.
9:57
[laughs] We're, uh, always rooting against my boys. But, uh, yeah, there's just, uh, not all that much interest at this point. Nah, it's such a great point, though.
10:03
There, there are such regional interest and lack of interest that we don't often get into, but that is definitely one of them in that corridor of the country. All right, last two games here then.
10:12
If you have any thoughts on your Kentucky squad, a minus 145 favorite over NC State. Nah, this is a tough one.
10:20
I think I made Kentucky, I wanna say minus 130, minus 135, so it's another one where the split is pretty much straddling my number. Um, you know, I think Kentucky's got a little bit deeper, deeper staff than NC State.
10:31
If they were playing NC State in game two or game three, I would probably have a play on Kentucky. But, uh, Sam Highfill for NC State, he's pretty good and he's been in Omaha before.
10:40
I know he, he pitched pretty well a few years ago when they made it. Um, so I really don't have anything there. It's probably my lowest total of the four games. But, um, yeah, there's just nothing.
10:51
I'm really curious to see how Kentucky handles the pressure and handles all the fans being out there. Um, definitely a, a unique situation for them. All right.
10:58
And then lastly, and I know, and I'm understanding we're, we're trying to squeeze out any value we can find, but A&M minus 180. Uh, Florida plus, uh, I don't know.
11:07
Depends what kind of, what kind of line you have here, but I'm seeing plus 143 where I'm looking on the comeback. Now I've got two numbers.
11:14
I've got one number that's just my regular number, and then I've got one that increases the strength of schedule for each team, so I can see if I put a higher weight on strength of schedule.
11:21
And Florida's a really unique case, where they've got really strong strength of schedule. They even have stronger strength of schedule than the other three SEC teams in this.
11:29
So they're a team that if you wanna ride the, the recent, uh, hot streak they've got, and you wanna take into account strength of schedule a little more, they might be worth the play tomorrow against Texas A&M.
11:38
So I would probably lean towards the Gators in that one. Matt, great talking to you, man. Thanks for making the time. All right. Thanks for having me, guys. Matt Lindaman, everybody, on the Numbers Game.
11:47
Stormy Bonatony on the other side on the UFL Championship next. Grown worthy dad jokes to patching up skinned knees, your dad is one of a kind. Kelly's particularly one of a kind.
12:03
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12:14
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12:25
He is- He's, he's got no problem getting to his happy place I won't even. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, she is the, uh, host of The Lombardi Line, which she does with Michael Lombardi, weekdays here at the network.
12:37
She is also a sideline reporter for the UFL, and she knows her hockey, and we talk to her about both sports here right now. It's Stormy Bonitatoni, everybody, courtesy of Progressive Gas Line. How you doing, Stormy?
12:47
What's going on, guys? I mean, e- very easy for me to join the show with a smile after that one-liner from Kelly getting us going. [laughs] That's what I'm talking about. [laughs] Kelly's full of one-liners.
12:55
He's fantastic with the one-liners. Let me ask you about hockey first, 'cause we haven't, we haven't really talked about it this morning. Uh, like the NBA, we have a three to nothing series.
13:04
Florida, uh, on the doorstep of sweeping the Edmonton Oilers. Edmonton obviously will have something to say about that. And although it's not quite as, um, fait accompli, that's French, Kelly.
13:14
It's not, uh, it's q- not quite as done as it is in the NBA, 'cause the NBA it's never happened where a team has come back, um, from a three to nothing deficit in a best of seven. It is still very rare in hockey as well.
13:25
Anything in your observation that tells you that Edmonton has a puncher's chance here? Um, well, I mean, they certainly have fight, right?
13:33
Florida has a 4-1 lead yesterday after the second period, and Edmonton claws back to bring it back within one with five minutes to go.
13:39
But it's too little too late, and I appreciate the optimism that Edmonton has shared, right?
13:45
You hear, um, Stuart Skinner after the game saying, "If anybody can do it, I don't know the stats about a team coming back, but if anyone can do it, it's the Oil."
13:54
And Chris Knoblauch saying that they've showed that this is a team that they can beat, and I just ask, where?
14:00
And I, I tweeted about this this morning as well, because you look at them being down 0-3 in the set right now.
14:05
They have not won against the Panthers in the regular season or postseason, outscored 21 to 8 in those games.
14:11
This power play that is supposed to be the best in the world for the Edmonton Oilers, 0 for 10 in this series, 0 for 22 against the Panthers' PK in the year, on the year.
14:22
And I just, I struggle to feel as if they're a team that's built to claw back into this.
14:28
And maybe if their, their players who have been the best goal scorers throughout the course of the year were stepping up, then I would feel a little bit differently.
14:36
But the fact that you have the five top goal scorers, where only Connor McDavid among that group has even scored points in this series, I think it's a massive concern.
14:46
And I loved the Florida Panthers coming into this series, probably so much so that I got a lot of hate on social media from all of the people saying, "What are you talking about? Edmonton's built for this.
14:56
They're finally ready." I know that the country of Canada would love for that to happen. I just find it very, very hard to believe, and I think Florida's just that good. What do you guys think?
15:06
Um, from our very educated observation, it just, for me anyway, it just seems like earlier in the series where, you know, Edmonton was staving off all of these power plays, and they had this amazing streak going of having done so.
15:19
I think it was like 34 in a row, and then Florida scored on the 35th. Obviously, that extended well before the Florida series. I just felt like it was...
15:26
I, I compare it to a soccer side in an international tournament, where they kind of knew the other team was better, but if they got that first goal, like, then they would sort of try to hold on for dear life, and it just hasn't happened.
15:36
And, and they had a Bobrovsky problem until last night, until the, you know, the third period. And so it was as simple as that until that last night.
15:44
And so I'm wondering, like, was that just enough to give them the proverbial confidence enough to fight on, as you say? I don't know.
15:51
I mean, it, it, it's down three to nothing, and while, again, while it has happened in the NHL, it's certainly a historical anomaly as well. So- Gotta be better, Stuart. Yeah, I- Gotta be better.
16:00
[laughs] You gotta be better.
16:01
[laughs] And but, and to your, to your point, though, about them gaining confidence, I actually wonder if it could be the opposite effect, because you have two games now where you are in a position to where you would think that you should win and you don't.
16:14
Particularly game one, I feel like that was such a missed opportunity, but then you look at game three last night, where you outshoot the Panthers. You have a guy like Warren Fogel who gets things going for you.
16:23
McLeod gets a goal, another goal from your blue line, and you lose the game? I actually come from that from the standpoint of maybe this is just that demoralizing, right? Interesting. You know?
16:32
Like, a- and you get to Stuart Skinner, but how much? Because he comes up so big in the clutch at the end of that ga- that slide that he had late was unbelievable.
16:40
Um, and so I, yeah, I think that it might actually be more demoralizing than confidence. I asked this of, uh, Chris Felica earlier, so, so please don't think this is, is directed any way at you. I'm always curious.
16:50
Chris Felica has come on this show and he's, we've talked literally 11 different sports with betting over the years. And, and he, like, I've asked him to rank them in, like horse racing for him.
16:59
If he only had one that he could deal with for the rest of his life and he would never be able to watch another sport, for him it's horse racing. Is hockey that sport for you? Absolutely.
17:07
I, I love this sport, and especially if we're talking, like, games that you're able to watch in person. I don't think that there's anything like hockey, especially at the level of the NHL.
17:16
The physicality that the g- these guys play with, and the elegance to an extent as well. I don't think you realize how difficult truly this sport is until you see it in person.
17:28
I don't know if you're coordinated on skates, but I am not.
17:32
And w- the, the power with which these guys can skate, hit the hell out of each other, um, and still be able to have the handles that they do with the puck and s- like, it's just, it's one of the most impressive physical feats to me.
17:46
And you also think about, like, we talk in football how it's like a car crash every time that you're in these games, right? How tough, um, the hits are in that sport.
17:54
The, if you look at the sport science and stuff like that, the miles per hour with which these guys are getting hit are even more than we see in football. These guys are battered and bruised.
18:03
And I know for me, when I was covering the Golden Knights as their ringside reporter, I think about a guy like Alec Martinez, who played throughout the majority of the playoffs on a broken ankle. And he's still playing.
18:15
The toughness these guys have, the grit, it's just different than any other sport I've covered or watched. Have you, uh, sat in the circus seats right behind the goal, by the way?
18:23
I have not, but when I worked for the team, I was about 20 feet away from them where my position was in the games. And so I would always, like, wave to Banksy and wave to, to Derek Stephens and stuff.
18:35
They're a great crew. Yeah. It's, uh, they, they were kind enough to invite, uh, many of us to one of those games, and, uh, just the, the puck's coming at you. It's just an amazing, uh, vantage point. Oh, for sure.
18:43
Uh, I don't want to assume, are you on the UFL broadcast this weekend? I am not. Unfortunately, Fox has the rights for the championship this year, so my ESPN/ABC season is done. Okay.
18:54
Well, that said, you were a keen observer of all this. By the way, congratulations, 'cause I, I got on my feed, too, you called the first touchdown on the broadcast, and then it happened. People were pumped about that.
19:05
Yes, I have peaked as a sports betting broadcaster. Um, I called a 15-1 touchdown, um, for my favorite first touchdown prop of the game, and the very next play, C.O.C. Mariner ends up catching a slant and running it in.
19:17
Unbelievable. Nothing like that will ever happen again, so I just gotta s- soak in my moment while I have it. All right, here's the question. Did the play-by-play guy acknowledge you immediately? Oh, yeah. Okay.
19:26
Drew Carter, he's a baller. He said, "Stormy's gonna cash you right now." Good. C.O.C. Mariners. Great. 'Cause I would, I would've hate- hated for that to have been lost on them, right?
19:35
[laughs] Uh, okay, so this is actually, I guess, by UFL standards, this is pretty dramatic. Stallions and Brahmas in the championship. Uh, as Stormy said, this is on Fox.
19:43
The Brah- excuse me, the, the Birmingham Stallions, who were nine and one this year, their only loss to the Brahmas. This is, this is dramatic. Uh, Birmingham, though, is a three-and-a-half point favorite.
19:54
The total is now at 42. How do you see this, Stormy? Yeah, so I do feel like this is still Birmingham's game to lose. They've been the best team all season long.
20:05
I, I'm fortunately in a position where I have futures on both of these teams, so I'm just kind of gonna ride it out from that standpoint. I, I feel like it's the Stallions. I, I like them minus...
20:14
I would like to see it get back to minus three if we can. Um, but I like them laying the points here.
20:19
I'm actually looking more toward the prop market, to be honest with you, and they do have an expanded prop market available here in the post-season, whether it be, like we were just talking about, first touchdown scorers, additional players that are available for these props, where it's usually throughout the year only been, like, two or three guys in each category.
20:35
But a couple of things I am looking at, I love Brahmas running back Anthony McFarland to go over 37 and a half yards.
20:42
So the other running back, Jon Lovett, his number is significantly higher, even though I think McFarland is the better back. He's coming off 115-yard game. He had 82 yards that first meeting against Birmingham.
20:54
Only played five games this season, and he's gone over this number in four of them, so I really like that. And Adrian Martinez, despite getting pulled last game, is going to start for the Birmingham Stallions.
21:05
But Matt Corral is expected to play, and so with that in mind, and Adrian Martinez, for as great as he's been all season long, he's the league MVP, he has really struggled recently.
21:15
So I look at, I'm looking at, like, all of his unders, basically. Under 175- seven and a half yards, under his pass attempts.
21:22
I wish that the interception prop was a better price, because he does have three in the last four games, including one against San Antonio, and I think that's very much so in play as well.
21:30
Um, but I'm coming at this more from a prop standpoint, just because of my futures bets I already have. What are your numbers, by the way, Stormy, on the Stallions and the Brahmas? Numbers for? For your futures bets.
21:40
What odds do you have on that? Oh, um, I have plus 200 on Birmingham and 12 to 1 on San Antonio that I bet before the season. Oh. Oh, wow. Ooh.
21:46
Well, Birmingham I bet in-season, but I was telling everybody as- while Birmingham was plus money to bet it, to bet it, to bet it, and I don't know why people weren't listening to me. I tried to tell them.
21:55
Well, Brahmas beat the Stallions 18 to nine in week nine, which I guess is three weeks ago, 18 to nine, so- Wow... um, that's that. That was the one loss for the Stallions this year. We'll see how it shakes out.
22:07
Those are your prop bets. Stormy, thank you very much. Appreciate the time. Thank you guys so much. Talk to you soon. Have a great day. You too.
22:13
Stormy Monitoni, uh, host of the Lombardi Line, uh, which of course is weekdays, not right after this show, but an hour after this show. Mm-hmm. Killing it. Great stuff. Each and every, uh, weekday here at VSiN.
22:24
We'll come back, Jason Weingart. Wouldn't be a Friday without Jason Weingart from Under a Cloud of Smoke.
22:29
Uh, everything he's betting on, see what's happening with him, and we'll, uh, we'll close it out with our NBA thoughts as well. Not much in game four, but I don't know. We can talk more about this MVP.
22:39
Coming back, numbers game. VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:42
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23:03
Gil Alexander, Kelly Tilghman, we'll get to the, uh, NBA finals, uh, once again a little later on, because, uh, there's some other prop markets that we wanna update, and you got, you have bets going on them as well, right?
23:14
Yeah, I got a, I got a, yeah, I got a pretty big sweat on Tatum to lead the series in rebounds. Yeah, we'll update all that coming up, uh, on the show as well. Uh, update at the US Open, round two, Pinehurst.
23:25
Um- Update me, Gil. I'm in straight easel mode over here. [laughs] Computer's dead. Patrick Cantlay still your leader, hasn't teed off yet today after his, uh, 5 under 65 yesterday.
23:35
So he's got the one stroke lead over Ober, uh, Ludwig Ober, who has not teed off yet either, who shot the 4 under 66 yesterday. Rory has since birdied since the last time we brought this up.
23:46
So remember, he had given two shots back. Well, he has made up one of them, so he is one shot back for the tournament at four under as well. The big mover of the day at this moment is Xander Schauffele. The X-Man.
24:00
Xander Schauffele three under for the day, three under for the tournament.
24:03
He is two strokes back, along with Bryson DeChambeau, who since we last updated this bogeyed and birdied, so he's back to three under, two strokes back of the lead as well. So those are the big names.
24:13
As far as Scottie Scheffler, Scheffler remains at three over for the tournament. He is struggling. I think we just want him to get in the clubhouse at this point. Yes, we do.
24:22
Uh, he's three o- he's two over for the day, three over for the tournament through 13 holes of golf today for Scottie Scheffler, the world number one. Yeah, just get in the clubhouse.
24:31
I think we'll be okay at that number. I, I think this is, th- this afternoon might be brutal out there. Projected cut is right at three over. Yeah. So he is inside the cut line currently.
24:43
I just, I don't think there is any way the cut line moves closer to even par. I think if anything, it goes longer, uh, this afternoon, so- I would agree...
24:50
if, think if we get, if he gets into three over, I think we're safe. I would agree. As long as he doesn't, uh- Deteriorate Yes I would agree.
24:57
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, comes to us from under a cloud of smoke in Southern California. You can follow him on Twitter, @spreadapedi. He comes to us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
25:04
That's the Progressive Guest Line. It's Jason Weingarten. How you doing, Jason? Pretty good. How's it going? [laughs] Uh, Taylor Pendrith actually has the low round of the day now. Just, uh, breaking news for you.
25:16
Oh, that's right. He just went four under? Yes, just went four under. Yeah, just went four under. Um, and he is three under for the tournament, four under for the day, as Jason said.
25:25
So he is two back as well, the Canadian, uh, with currently the low round. Although Xander will have something to say about this in his final five holes as well. But those are the, uh, those are the low scores.
25:35
You have any bets on, on the US Open, Jason? Uh, minimal stuff. You know, a little live top 10, top 20. Uh, nothing, nothing I'm pretty, pretty excited about yet. Uh, I did go to the US Open last year.
25:48
I just gotta tell you, um, the, the merchandise tent at the US Open is such an exa- insane experience. You have to see it for yourself.
25:58
Like, they do more sales per minute, per square foot than I think any, you know, Super Bowl or World Series. It's, it's just the craziest thing I've ever seen.
26:07
Not quite as, not quite as, uh, active as the Masters thing, but that's a, that's a whole different category. But- That's what I was just gonna bring it up. Matt was talking about the Masters. I- I've never been. Yeah.
26:17
Yeah. I, I've, I, I've never been lucky enough to, to go, so I couldn't, couldn't compare it. But I mean, the, the amount of just people buying stuff was... I was amazed.
26:25
And then I bought, like, 500 bucks worth of stuff too. [laughs] Well, that's the thing. I... So I went to the- Perfect... I went to, I... And I'm like you, I've never been fortunate enough to go to the Masters either.
26:32
But I went to the US Open when it was in the Bay, when it was at the Olympic Club, which I want to say was 2012. Don't hold me to that year. But it was, uh, in San Francisco, and I remem- I had the same experience.
26:43
I remember going into that tent and, and there were so many people buying stuff, and it was so outrageously expensive. And that demographic, price is no object. They're just, like, buying everything in sight.
26:56
It's amazing. Yeah, but it's, it is... Like, I get it. It's a once in a lifetime thing, right? Once in, yeah, that's right. Like, you, you have no problem paying three times what you would normally pay for a polo shirt.
27:04
[laughs] Yep, that's right. That's, I, I, I got one of those polo shirts you speak of. [laughs] Yeah. All right, uh, Jason, among the many thing...
27:11
Well, first of all, you have a, on the ladies' side, you do have a bet that you'd like to share with folks? I have Grace Kim. She's tied for the lead.
27:18
You can get her, like, 20 to 1 still right now, but I don't, I don't know if she's gonna win. There's, you know, five, five ladies, six ladies one shot off the lead right now, so. But tied for the lead- Still early...
27:28
tied for the lead at 20 to 1 currently. Yeah, I mean, it's, it's bad. It's something to look forward to this weekend. Grace Kim on the LPGA side. Okay.
27:37
Uh, we talk about many things with you, uh, but probably first and foremost, we talk about Major League Baseball and specifically Major League Baseball's futures market. You, uh, you had an observation on them this year.
27:50
Or where blink of an eye we're back to Aaron Judge being a 125 favorite and Juan Soto being five-and-a-half to one. Like, I, I don't know.
27:58
I still think Juan Soto is the MVP of the Yankees, but I totally understand that Aaron Judge is Aaron Judge and, you know, I'm totally wrong about his foot injury too.
28:07
Um, he, he might run away with this again, but I, I can't, I can't keep wrapping my head around this idea that Juan Soto isn't the, the, the guy that changed the Yankees this year, not Aaron Judge.
28:18
And that is, and that's so true, and that gets back to the age-old discussion that we always have across sports, which is, you know, handicapping the voters and what will matter to them.
28:28
I mean, and I guess from a baseball standpoint,
28:32
you know, we talked about this, I guess the first time this came up, it was, like, in the early part of the last decade, where Felix Hernandez won a Cy Young by winning 12 games.
28:41
That was, like, a, a shift, where voters finally got that wins and losses didn't matter as much as other things.
28:47
Um, with this though, with MVP, is it as simple as these guys are just gonna be intoxicated by who hits the most home runs? Aaron Judge hitting 60 home runs is Aaron Judge hitting 60 home runs.
29:01
It's sort of similar, the, the American League Rookie of the Year with, with Luis, is it Hill we're calling him, Luis Hill? Luis Hill, yes. Um, he's minus 185 for Rookie of the Year. I think that's insane.
29:13
He's 27 years old. We're what? Just over a third of the way through the season. Um, I, I just don't understand how you could possibly get minus 185 from a guy whose projected ERA is, like, 3.7 for the rest of the season.
29:28
Um, he's, he's projected for 170 strikeouts. I mean, those numbers are good, but they're, they're not gonna win you a Rookie of the Year. I mean, like, I keep just trying to beat this home.
29:37
Spencer Strider had, like, a 13.9 K to nine and a 1.83 FIP, and didn't, didn't win. Like, Luis Gil is not winning, uh, Rookie of the Year. Laying 185 is insane. I think this is a wide-open market.
29:52
Um, plenty of opportunity here. Yeah. Porn, every time you bring up the Spencer Strider stats from last year, I just, uh, a little tear drops down my cheek.
29:59
Um, back, back to the Judge thing, 'cause you made it easy by saying, "If Aaron Judge hitting 60 home runs is Aaron Judge hitting 60 home runs," and I agree with you. If he hits 60, it's probably not even a conversation.
30:09
But what if he hits, you know, a much more tame 56, let's say? Like, does it become that, you know, that much of a done deal at that point? Probably.
30:19
I mean, if the, the Yankees in first place, I, I don't see how it, uh, won- So even if Ju-... I don't see how it... even if Juan Soto is just, like, filling up every other category, right?
30:29
Uh, I, I mean, I think you're, I guess I'm, I'm talking it out, but I think you're right. That, I think that's the point. I think it's that simple.
30:36
And your best advice, and let me just give you a shout for this, is, 'cause I brought up Jose Ramirez about three, four weeks ago and said, "This dude is still 25 to one.
30:45
He was just absolutely the straw that stirred the drink," to use Reggie's, uh, phrase, "for the, for the Guardians." And you were right. You, you... It's just like, you know what? It doesn't matter.
30:54
It doesn't matter with a, if a Yankee, if someone in pinstripes is going to be the best player in baseball, and in their case, the best two maybe, it's just not gonna matter And that's just how it works.
31:06
He's 27 to one now. Yeah. Well, we sh- we're showing 22 to one, but yeah, you're right, his long is 27 to one.
31:12
So, um, anyway, any other market like w- like a Luis Hill where you're like, "That guy should not be this short"?
31:19
Well, the thing with the American League Rookie of the Year is that you got, like, Mason Miller as the second favorite, and I don't think he's gonna win either.
31:25
Like, I think Luis Gil or Hill and Mason Miller at, at these, these numbers, like, it's insane.
31:31
Like, I, I don't know if it's gonna be Jackson Holiday or Wyatt Langford, you know, or one of these guys even farther down, but it's gonna be somebody that's not a pitcher throwing 130 innings.
31:43
Yeah, or a, a closer for the Oakland A's. I just think that's crazy. Like, it could be Colton Cowser.
31:48
I don't know, he's still 17 to one, but, uh, this market needs a, a little more, uh, anal- analyzation from me going forward, 'cause I think there's plenty of, of money to be made down the board here. Yeah.
32:01
It seems to be a lot more reactive than it used to be, let's put it that way, on one night's results. By the way, I did jump in on the Braves to miss the playoffs.
32:10
I know we have it on a mythical bet here, but I, I did bet it myself, plus 750. Um, they still have a nice little edge in the loss column. Do you, y- you know, plus 750, would you have bet it?
32:22
Yeah, it's a good number still. Yeah. I mean, a lot of, lot of baseball left to be played, but, uh, can I just tell you the, the NL Rookie of the Year market? Please.
32:29
I still think the top of the board, the pitchers are backwards. Skeens is not gonna get close to enough innings to win this award. You just gotta throw him out now.
32:37
Yamamoto, plus 340, should, should be the favorite, not Imanaga. They're gonna flip. Farther down, Jackson Merrill, 30 to one. Uh, Andy Pa has 75 to one, I think is his number, b- blown back out.
32:50
Um, he hit a home run last night. He's still playing pretty well. I mean, look at his numbers over the last month. Um, Merrill, future superstar, I think. Um, he's playing pretty well.
32:59
Hit a walk-off home run this weekend. If a pitcher's not gonna win, um, Merrill, Pa has... Those are guys I'd look at at the numbers right now. 10 seconds, anything you bet today? Uh, no, not much, actually.
33:12
I've been, uh, getting ready to watch the US Open, see if I can- Okay... jump into some stuff there. Fair enough, as they say. Thank you, Jason. Appreciate it, man. Pleasure. Talk to you guys later.
33:21
Jason Weingartner, uh, Weingarten, pardon me, @spreadapedia. Uh, we'll talk NBA on the other side, Kelly and I. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:33
[upbeat music] With Scheffler who just, uh, hit it out of the dirt and it rolled right back to him. Yeah. Wonderful.
33:43
We're this close to crowning an NBA champ, and with the action heating up on the court, it's even hotter at DraftKings Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner of the NBA.
33:51
Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app now and use code VSiN, that's code V-S-I-N, for new customers to get 150 in bonus bets when you bet just five bucks. Only on DraftKings. The crown is yours. Be smiling there.
34:02
Two best players in PGA Tour really struggling to get out of this, uh, this little waste area. Schauffele just did the same dang thing. Did he really? Yep. Oh, man.
34:09
Actually, he got, he, he at least got his on the green, and then it rolled back down. We get tweets, we get texts. Chris Felica, The Bear, who was just on the show, uh, he texts.
34:17
He goes, uh, [laughs] he says, "Yes, your memory is correct. It was Olympic Cl- Olympic Club was 2012, and no, you will never be allowed on the grounds of Augusta National."
34:26
[laughs] He adds, "Activate the trap door at the entrance gate on Washington Street, please, if you would," if I ever showed up there. It's the Hootie bit. Never gets old. Uh, we get tweets also.
34:39
This is from, uh, Phil Weiss. Phil Weiss, who finds himself always disagreeing with Jason Weingarten. He says, "Will wonders never cease? In principle, I agree with that genius Jason on the Soto-Judge thing.
34:52
I gotta stop listening." 'Cause he thinks he's becoming now agreeable with Jason Weingarten, so it's bothering him. Ah. Phil's, Phil's very... He's never- Gotcha. Yeah.
35:00
Steven Va- Phil was the guy who said the Warriors were l- were the least beautiful thing in basketball, so you have to understand. That will always be his one shining moment, when he had that tweet.
35:10
Steven Vegas, "I noticed you didn't mention WNBA star among the many job duties. Uh, has anyone, for Stormy, has anyone ever seen Stormy and Cameron Brink at the same time in the same place?"
35:22
I don't know if Stormy likes that comparison or not, but they are- I hadn't really thought about that, man... they do, they do favor each other. Yeah, a little bit. A little bit. Yeah.
35:29
Uh, NBA, game four tonight, NBA finals. We talked about this to start the show. We put the Celtics in historical context. Um, and I mentioned, I know we're a betting network, it's a betting show.
35:40
If there was ever a time where, if you said to me, "All right, what's the one time of the year in any sport where you'd actually probably recommend not betting something?"
35:48
It's probably game four of an NBA finals where one team is up three to nothing, and it's just so difficult to gauge motivation and the head space of a team like the Dallas Mavericks. Are they gonna fight on tonight, um,
36:02
and really put out a great performance? How are the officials going to react to Luka's whining? Pardon me. Is, are they gonna be more sympathetic to his complaints? Are they gonna be less sympathetic to his complaints?
36:15
Uh, or the Mavericks just lay down. Uh, so all those things in the mix, it's just at, you know, it's essentially where the Mavericks are a one point favorite now. The total's 211 and a half.
36:24
You know, look, if you bet it and win, good for you. It's just not one of those that I would recommend necessarily.
36:29
I made the case earlier for NBA finals MVP that while I think Jaylen Brown ought to be a slight favorite, I don't think he should be nearly -280, and I think Jason Tatum is probably mispriced at plus 250.
36:40
Going back to our voter conversation that we just had with Jason on a baseball st- from a baseball standpoint, but also from a basketball standpoint, what will NBA finals MVP voters be wowed by?
36:52
And we went through the stats, games one, two, and three. Um, it's kind of a wash, with the exception of shooting percentage, shooting efficiency, where Jaylen Brown is far better than Jayson Tatum.
37:03
I just don't think voters care about that kind of stuff in the same way that we might.
37:08
So for me, while Jaylen Brown might be a slight favorite, I don't think he should be minus 280, and I think Jayson Tatum might actually represent value.
37:14
You have some bets in some other prop markets that are still alive here, Kelly. Yes?
37:18
Yeah, I was gonna update kind of where series stat stuff is at, uh, for anybody who bet on those, although it looks like DraftKings might have pulled those markets. They were up this morning.
37:28
Or maybe I'm just not finding the right thing. Anyways, uh, we're just gonna update those. I do have a bet on Jayson Tatum to lead the series in rebounds. He is a one...
37:35
Well, he is one whole rebound behind, uh, Luka Dončić, so I will be sweating that out tonight.
37:42
And then this one was in- All those, all those big guys on the court for both those teams, those are the guys leading rebounds. Yeah, I mean, just the, it's so many minutes, and think of- Yeah...
37:48
think about the big guys, right? The big guys are always in a rotation, right? That's right. It's Lively or Gafford on off the court. Porziņģis obviously wasn't... He, he got hurt.
37:56
Um, and Horford's gonna be, you know, at least kind of limited, uh, in minutes.
38:01
Um, so the, uh, so that race, yeah, it was, it was Tate- it was Luka favored Tatum, uh, or Tatum favored, and then Luka right behind him, um, when that opened up.
38:12
I liked Luka there, so I w- I will be sweating that out today. That is actually my biggest bet of the series, um, that's on the series at least. Uh, the assist one is interesting.
38:21
I caught the s- I caught the odds earlier in DraftKings at least, where Tatum was a dog to, to Luka. I think it was plus 105 on Tatum, and Tatum has a four-assist lead over Luka Dončić going into this game tonight.
38:35
So that's gonna be... Man, if anybody's got assists, that could be a sweat.
38:40
Uh, that could be a sweat for you tonight, although I don't know that I'd hate betting Jayson Tatum at plus money with a four-assist lead right now over Luka. Because Tatum had 5, 12, and 5. Yeah.
38:50
I mean, the tw- obviously 12's an outlier, but I... It's not crazy. To ask him to get five, six assists is not asking that much- No... out of Jayson Tatum. No. So then you're talking you need Luka to hit double digits.
39:02
I don't know, I'd probably bet that. Where does your, uh, Jayson Tatum to lead series in three points made stand, nine to one? Uh, he is not- Not close... going to hit that, I believe. Not, not close.
39:14
Um, and then at the bottom you have Jaylen Brown to have more rebounds than Daniel Gafford. That one is... Let's see. I've got a three-rebound lead. All right. I've got a three-rebound lead.
39:27
Gotta t- tip of the cap to, uh, JVT for that one. I know that one. And that's also just playing time, right? That's just being on the court. Yeah, that's... I mean, that was the whole handicap. It was that- Yeah...
39:34
Jaylen Brown's gonna be playing 40-plus minutes in every one of these games. Um, yeah, and Daniel Gafford is at, at best gonna be splitting time with Derrick Lively.
39:42
And then, um, man, I've been wrong on him every step of the way this post- Well, so, so I wanna ask you, right? [laughs] Because Lively showed up last game. You, you, you've been sitting...
39:50
You know, we sit next to each other here five days a week. Mm. And you're the one guy I haven't asked this of, and you're probably the first guy I should ask this of, 'cause I've asked it of JVT, I asked it of Drew.
39:57
I've asked it of a bunch of NBA folks who've come on, which is, and I start by saying, I'm looking at myself and saying, it is the p- it is the postseason as a whole.
40:06
We already established, again, losing teams in best of sevens here this year in the NBA playoffs have averaged 1.2 wins.
40:13
Like, it has been, between the NHL and the NBA, it's been, from a non-betting standpoint, the least competitive playoffs we've ever seen.
40:21
And in the NBA, it's like in spades, especially the conference finals and the finals. But I just think from a handicapping standpoint, listen, I thought Denver was gonna win it all.
40:29
They're up 20 in the third quarter against the T-Wolves. They lose. I literally had to text Will Hill and Fleeka the other day. I was like, "That did happen, right?" This was just yesterday. I was like, that...
40:38
Or the day before. I was like, "That did happen." Now, correct me if I'm wrong. It's, it's still surreal to me that happened. Yeah. So I thought Denver was gonna win it all.
40:45
Then I thought, you know, what was my next thought? That the T-Wolves-Nuggets series was the NBA Finals, de facto NBA Finals. That clearly wasn't the case, 'cause the Mavericks wiped them off the court.
40:54
And now the Mavericks get destroyed by Boston. We had that segment a few weeks back, and I just retweeted it this morning, which was kind of my... You ever see that movie, Gwyneth Paltrow, it was in Sliding Doors?
41:04
You ever see that movie? No, but I know what you're talking about, yeah.
41:06
The conceit of the movie is, the conceit of the movie is that our entire lives unwittingly, unknowingly change on the most random, brief choices or timing of things, right?
41:21
If she enters the subway 10 seconds before she does, she runs into a person that she ends up marrying, that kind of thing, right? Yeah, right.
41:29
So for me, this was kind of the sliding doors of the NBA playoffs, where it just felt like if Denver doesn't gack a 20-point lead, right, Friday night, the last Friday night of the NBA regular season to the Spurs when Wembanyama went off and they end up as the number one seed, that means they would end up getting Dallas probably in round two.
41:49
Does that matchup go completely differently? And so the NBA world, these playoffs end up so much differently based on some random thing that happened on that Friday night to end the regular season.
42:03
The other thing was Cleveland purposely tanking- Yeah... to play Orlando in the first round. What did that do? That means that instead of them playing it kosher, right,
42:14
Philly doesn't end up playing Boston in round two based on those seedings. Who knows if Embiid doesn't get hurt? Who knows if Philly somehow takes out Boston? So it's like the sliding doors of the NBA playoffs.
42:25
And my question to you finally is, sorry for the run-up- No, no, it is what it is... is this the least... Is, is this the post-season of any sport where you've had the least grasp of?
42:36
I would say after those, it's a- after the, the first two rounds, yes. 'Cause I think it's very, very much... I mean, the Eastern Conference was the Eastern Conference.
42:45
Like, I don't, I don't know if there's too much to seize on there.
42:47
It was so, it was so defined by injuries throughout that it, it, it was, it was, I mean, really not, not all that interesting, not all that exciting, and really not all that close in the end, in the end.
42:58
Now, how much does, and y- and, and I know you hit on this, uh, you know, a lot during, on the show maybe the next day I think it was. But, you know, Minnesota-Denver, right?
43:06
Minnesota basically designed to build, uh, to beat Denver, beats Denver. We all get hyped up on what Minnesota can be, not designed to beat some other teams out there. So true. And, I mean, I...
43:19
It's just, it's weird looking back now, like, you know, where you're, like, Dallas dismantled that team, and, like, I, I still don't know that I fully understand it.
43:28
And then, like, and then what are we looking at in this NBA finals? Like, Boston sweeps Indiana, yet Indiana has, the Pacers are going to have given the NBA champions the biggest challenge they had, and they got swept.
43:42
So- And Haliburton got hurt. And Haliburton got hurt. [laughs] But, but that was, that was my comment the next day was, is, has the NBA become so hyper matchup driven- Yes...
43:52
that that is the number one handicap of anything? Like, we can talk ourselves into other things, but ultimately it's like styles make fights and, and that, it was an adage for boxing. Mm-hmm.
44:03
It has never been more true for the NBA. Yep. Here we are, Boston Celtics on the cusp of yet another championship in their glorified or their storied history. We've done all we can do.
44:14
GoJoe and Golick are next on the radio side. And Joy from Visa, the sports betting network.
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